Poor ratings for Johnson, Patel and Starmer from Ipsos-MORI – politicalbetting.com
Johnson’s figures is the lowest since October last year. Patel hasn’t been polled before but her numbers are comparable with those for Corbyn ahead of GE2019.
Possibly on topic - I've noticed that my more left friend struggle with condemning Sunak. Obviously they can't like him - Evul Tory - but they find it hard to really go to town.
Possibly on topic - I've noticed that my more left friend struggle with condemning Sunak. Obviously they can't like him - Evul Tory - but they find it hard to really go to town.
I think the most dangerous development for both LAB and the LDs would be the Tories replacing Johnson with Sunak in the run-up to the general election.
I wonder if it was the dissing of the RNLI that did it for Ms Patel?
That and the whole take-the-knee thing I'd have thought. She just sounded like a cynical politician on the make.
We have no previous data. She has never been flavour of the month with anyone rational, surely.
This ConHome survey implies quite a drop, though DYOR on probably different methodology, not to mention different population, and timing vis a vis footie kneelers and RNLI heroes:
"Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, also saw her support among the party's grassroots plummet in July. Patel’s net approval ratings were down 20 points, from 46 to 26, between June and July."
Possibly on topic - I've noticed that my more left friend struggle with condemning Sunak. Obviously they can't like him - Evul Tory - but they find it hard to really go to town.
I think the most dangerous development for both LAB and the LDs would be the Tories replacing Johnson with Sunak in the run-up to the general election.
Unlikely as long as the Tories continue to lead the polls.
Thatcher was only replaced by her Chancellor, Major, once the Tories trailed Kinnock's Labour badly after the poll tax.
Sunak may be the most popular senior politician at the moment but Boris still has higher favourables than Starmer too.
It looks like Starmer's best chance of becoming PM would be for Priti Patel to become Tory leader, she looks to be far more unpopular than Boris overall
Q: Why did the chicken cross the road? A: To avoid meeting Nicola Sturgeon...
I approve of Boris putting Nicola in her place. It’s a delicate balance, and he needs to avoid insulting the Scots, but Nicola pretends to a status she simply does not have.
She is the First Minister. And this is not an isolated incident but a sustained pattern of refusal to engage. Which is not good for government at any level.
Nicola is given an inch and takes a yard. She pretty much weaponises all her engagements with U.K. level people and institutions.
Perhaps a period of isolation is indeed called for.
"Is called for": it's been inflicted by the government in Whitehall for years now, was my point.
Well we probably agree that Whitehall’s approach to Scotland has been disastrous.
But I’m fed up with Nicola. She is largely given a free ride by the media, too, even though she wants to BREAK UP MY COUNTRY.
Please be precise: your state. Noit your country.
Not this crap again.
Nationalists rightly dont like being told their view of nationality is invalid. Unionists rightly dont like it either.
Country status is inherently arbitrary as all matters of borders and identity are. They are real if people consider them real, and if they can persuade others internationally they can get recognised.
Insulting people by saying their country is not a country is just being impolite for no reason, since theres no objective reality to it.
The UK is my country. England is too, in this country of countries. It is perfectly ok for people to not feel the same and to want to break up either of those entities or indeed both. But they don't get to determine what others feel anymore than I could determine what they feel.
Well for me my only country is Scotland, UK is not and never has been a "country" and anyone pretending so is not right in the tattie.
This is my precise point malc. You dont consider it your country, whatever legalities exist. That's your view and its fine. You cannot be forced to feel an attachment to the UK.
Why be so rude and deny the validity of others taking a different view though? Who are you to claim you have the right to declare your country is a country but others who take a different view cannot do the same?
That's just plain disrespectful to one another and I cannot see the point - my view that the UK is my country, held by many, in no way diminishes your strong view that only Scotland is your country. Sure, someone will point to states and law, but your identity remains unaffected to you.
Why cannot my identity be real? Because it was a legal construct centuries ago? All countries are constructs, they are all real if enough people feel they are.
You dont want your identity dictated by others - why is it therefore ok for you to dictate about others' identities?
A dry SY in Jun-Jul, things are getting very serious.
Eddy Weather (Dr. Eddy Graham) @eddy_weather · 14h I've just worked out the stats: Stornoway's June+July 2021 rainfall total of 57.6mm is the 2nd lowest on record of the past 148yrs - so the extreme drought situation remains very real indeed @MichelleRobson8 @gmrpetricca @weloveSY
Possibly on topic - I've noticed that my more left friend struggle with condemning Sunak. Obviously they can't like him - Evul Tory - but they find it hard to really go to town.
I think the most dangerous development for both LAB and the LDs would be the Tories replacing Johnson with Sunak in the run-up to the general election.
Unlikely as long as the Tories continue to lead the polls.
Thatcher was only replaced by her Chancellor, Major, once the Tories trailed Kinnock's Labour badly after the poll tax.
Sunak may be the most popular senior politician at the moment but Boris still has higher favourables than Starmer too.
It looks like Starmer's best chance of becoming PM would be for Priti Patel to become Tory leader, she looks to be far more unpopular than Boris overall
The Tories are polling worse than the 11.7% lead at GE2019 - therefore they will lose seats. They'll also suffer in Remain seats where the LDs are in second place and there are a lot of graduates.
Q: Why did the chicken cross the road? A: To avoid meeting Nicola Sturgeon...
I approve of Boris putting Nicola in her place. It’s a delicate balance, and he needs to avoid insulting the Scots, but Nicola pretends to a status she simply does not have.
She is the First Minister. And this is not an isolated incident but a sustained pattern of refusal to engage. Which is not good for government at any level.
Nicola is given an inch and takes a yard. She pretty much weaponises all her engagements with U.K. level people and institutions.
Perhaps a period of isolation is indeed called for.
"Is called for": it's been inflicted by the government in Whitehall for years now, was my point.
Well we probably agree that Whitehall’s approach to Scotland has been disastrous.
But I’m fed up with Nicola. She is largely given a free ride by the media, too, even though she wants to BREAK UP MY COUNTRY.
Please be precise: your state. Noit your country.
Not this crap again.
Nationalists rightly dont like being told their view of nationality is invalid. Unionists rightly dont like it either.
Country status is inherently arbitrary as all matters of borders and identity are. They are real if people consider them real, and if they can persuade others internationally they can get recognised.
Insulting people by saying their country is not a country is just being impolite for no reason, since theres no objective reality to it.
The UK is my country. England is too, in this country of countries. It is perfectly ok for people to not feel the same and to want to break up either of those entities or indeed both. But they don't get to determine what others feel anymore than I could determine what they feel.
Well for me my only country is Scotland, UK is not and never has been a "country" and anyone pretending so is not right in the tattie.
This is my precise point malc. You dont consider it your country, whatever legalities exist. That's your view and its fine. You cannot be forced to feel an attachment to the UK.
Why be so rude and deny the validity of others taking a different view though? Who are you to claim you have the right to declare your country is a country but others who take a different view cannot do the same?
That's just plain disrespectful to one another and I cannot see the point - my view that the UK is my country, held by many, in no way diminishes your strong view that only Scotland is your country. Sure, someone will point to states and law, but your identity remains unaffected to you.
Why cannot my identity be real? Because it was a legal construct centuries ago? All countries are constructs, they are all real if enough people feel they are.
You dont want your identity dictated by others - why is it therefore ok for you to dictate about others' identities?
All countries are ultimately imaginary constructs, from San Marino to China. If everyone woke up tomorrow and stopped believing in, say, Canada then Canada would cease to exist. As an intellectual challenge try and come up with a workable definition of "Europe" (not just the EU) that is not a cultural contruct.
I wonder if it was the dissing of the RNLI that did it for Ms Patel?
That and the whole take-the-knee thing I'd have thought. She just sounded like a cynical politician on the make.
We have no previous data. She has never been flavour of the month with anyone rational, surely.
This ConHome survey implies quite a drop, though DYOR on probably different methodology, not to mention different population, and timing vis a vis footie kneelers and RNLI heroes:
"Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, also saw her support among the party's grassroots plummet in July. Patel’s net approval ratings were down 20 points, from 46 to 26, between June and July."
Be careful of confirmation bias.
It's far more likely that this is because she's totally failed to get a grip on the croas-channel crossings.
I notice a new record number of 482 successfully crossed yesterday, making it over 10,000 this year - so far.
Possibly on topic - I've noticed that my more left friend struggle with condemning Sunak. Obviously they can't like him - Evul Tory - but they find it hard to really go to town.
I think the most dangerous development for both LAB and the LDs would be the Tories replacing Johnson with Sunak in the run-up to the general election.
Yes - but BoJo will only be replaced if, as the election approaches, he looks like losing.
At the moment we are deeply in mid-term. And governments being ahead in the polls mid-term does not generally point to election failure.
I wonder if it was the dissing of the RNLI that did it for Ms Patel?
That and the whole take-the-knee thing I'd have thought. She just sounded like a cynical politician on the make.
We have no previous data. She has never been flavour of the month with anyone rational, surely.
This ConHome survey implies quite a drop, though DYOR on probably different methodology, not to mention different population, and timing vis a vis footie kneelers and RNLI heroes:
"Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, also saw her support among the party's grassroots plummet in July. Patel’s net approval ratings were down 20 points, from 46 to 26, between June and July."
Be careful of confirmation bias.
It's far more likely that this is because she's totally failed to get a grip on the croas-channel crossings.
I notice a new record number of 482 successfully crossed yesterday, making it over 10,000 this year - so far.
Of course, yes. Different sampling pool, different mix of criteria.
Possibly on topic - I've noticed that my more left friend struggle with condemning Sunak. Obviously they can't like him - Evul Tory - but they find it hard to really go to town.
I think the most dangerous development for both LAB and the LDs would be the Tories replacing Johnson with Sunak in the run-up to the general election.
Unlikely as long as the Tories continue to lead the polls.
Thatcher was only replaced by her Chancellor, Major, once the Tories trailed Kinnock's Labour badly after the poll tax.
Sunak may be the most popular senior politician at the moment but Boris still has higher favourables than Starmer too.
It looks like Starmer's best chance of becoming PM would be for Priti Patel to become Tory leader, she looks to be far more unpopular than Boris overall
The Tories are polling worse than the 11.7% lead at GE2019 - therefore they will lose seats. They'll also suffer in Remain seats where the LDs are in second place and there are a lot of graduates.
Its mid term of a 4th Government in a row, they should be trailing in the polls, not leading comfortably. And their performances in Local By-Electrions are also much better than would be expected given how long they have been in Government.
Possibly on topic - I've noticed that my more left friend struggle with condemning Sunak. Obviously they can't like him - Evul Tory - but they find it hard to really go to town.
I think the most dangerous development for both LAB and the LDs would be the Tories replacing Johnson with Sunak in the run-up to the general election.
Unlikely as long as the Tories continue to lead the polls.
Thatcher was only replaced by her Chancellor, Major, once the Tories trailed Kinnock's Labour badly after the poll tax.
Sunak may be the most popular senior politician at the moment but Boris still has higher favourables than Starmer too.
It looks like Starmer's best chance of becoming PM would be for Priti Patel to become Tory leader, she looks to be far more unpopular than Boris overall
The Tories are polling worse than the 11.7% lead at GE2019 - therefore they will lose seats. They'll also suffer in Remain seats where the LDs are in second place and there are a lot of graduates.
The Tories are still heading for at least the majority they got in 1992 in most polls.
They may even get some more Leave seats like Hartlepool to offset any losses in Remain seats like Chesham.
There is also no evidence that Labour and LD voters who like Sunak would actually switch to voting Tory if he was Tory leader
I wonder if it was the dissing of the RNLI that did it for Ms Patel?
That and the whole take-the-knee thing I'd have thought. She just sounded like a cynical politician on the make.
We have no previous data. She has never been flavour of the month with anyone rational, surely.
This ConHome survey implies quite a drop, though DYOR on probably different methodology, not to mention different population, and timing vis a vis footie kneelers and RNLI heroes:
"Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, also saw her support among the party's grassroots plummet in July. Patel’s net approval ratings were down 20 points, from 46 to 26, between June and July."
Be careful of confirmation bias.
It's far more likely that this is because she's totally failed to get a grip on the croas-channel crossings.
I notice a new record number of 482 successfully crossed yesterday, making it over 10,000 this year - so far.
Something to think of.
When, after the war, the military gamed Sealion, they estimated that 10% losses due to environment were probable for the poorly equipped German barges.
Given the RIBs used for the crossing are tiny, overloaded, no skilled seamen involved, this could be worse.
Possibly on topic - I've noticed that my more left friend struggle with condemning Sunak. Obviously they can't like him - Evul Tory - but they find it hard to really go to town.
I think the most dangerous development for both LAB and the LDs would be the Tories replacing Johnson with Sunak in the run-up to the general election.
Yes - but BoJo will only be replaced if, as the election approaches, he looks like losing.
At the moment we are deeply in mid-term. And governments being ahead in the polls mid-term does not generally point to election failure.
Indeed. Boris will continue if he keeps a decent poll lead. If he doesn't and Sunak replaced him, the Tories would be in a strong position.
I wonder if it was the dissing of the RNLI that did it for Ms Patel?
That and the whole take-the-knee thing I'd have thought. She just sounded like a cynical politician on the make.
We have no previous data. She has never been flavour of the month with anyone rational, surely.
This ConHome survey implies quite a drop, though DYOR on probably different methodology, not to mention different population, and timing vis a vis footie kneelers and RNLI heroes:
"Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, also saw her support among the party's grassroots plummet in July. Patel’s net approval ratings were down 20 points, from 46 to 26, between June and July."
Be careful of confirmation bias.
It's far more likely that this is because she's totally failed to get a grip on the croas-channel crossings.
I notice a new record number of 482 successfully crossed yesterday, making it over 10,000 this year - so far.
Something to think of.
When, after the war, the military gamed Sealion, they estimated that 10% losses due to environment were probable for the poorly equipped German barges.
Given the RIBs used for the crossing are tiny, overloaded, no skilled seamen involved, this could be worse.
10,000 people made it - how many dead?
At least 1,000....
There was a story about some drowning just off the French coast, but that's about it.
I guess there's a lot of water, but would we expect some evidence (e.g. empty boats turning up)?
I wonder if it was the dissing of the RNLI that did it for Ms Patel?
That and the whole take-the-knee thing I'd have thought. She just sounded like a cynical politician on the make.
We have no previous data. She has never been flavour of the month with anyone rational, surely.
This ConHome survey implies quite a drop, though DYOR on probably different methodology, not to mention different population, and timing vis a vis footie kneelers and RNLI heroes:
"Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, also saw her support among the party's grassroots plummet in July. Patel’s net approval ratings were down 20 points, from 46 to 26, between June and July."
Be careful of confirmation bias.
It's far more likely that this is because she's totally failed to get a grip on the croas-channel crossings.
I notice a new record number of 482 successfully crossed yesterday, making it over 10,000 this year - so far.
Something to think of.
When, after the war, the military gamed Sealion, they estimated that 10% losses due to environment were probable for the poorly equipped German barges.
Given the RIBs used for the crossing are tiny, overloaded, no skilled seamen involved, this could be worse.
10,000 people made it - how many dead?
At least 1,000....
There was a story about some drowning just off the French coast, but that's about it.
I guess there's a lot of water, but would we expect some evidence (e.g. empty boats turning up)?
Given that the most likely cause of death is being run down by a vast commercial ship, crushed, drowned and then minced by the propellors......
Possibly on topic - I've noticed that my more left friend struggle with condemning Sunak. Obviously they can't like him - Evul Tory - but they find it hard to really go to town.
I think the most dangerous development for both LAB and the LDs would be the Tories replacing Johnson with Sunak in the run-up to the general election.
Unlikely as long as the Tories continue to lead the polls.
Thatcher was only replaced by her Chancellor, Major, once the Tories trailed Kinnock's Labour badly after the poll tax.
Sunak may be the most popular senior politician at the moment but Boris still has higher favourables than Starmer too.
It looks like Starmer's best chance of becoming PM would be for Priti Patel to become Tory leader, she looks to be far more unpopular than Boris overall
The Tories are polling worse than the 11.7% lead at GE2019 - therefore they will lose seats. They'll also suffer in Remain seats where the LDs are in second place and there are a lot of graduates.
The polls will change when the parties start their general election campaigns.
What is completely unlikely, is that the current polls will be the result on election day.
Possibly on topic - I've noticed that my more left friend struggle with condemning Sunak. Obviously they can't like him - Evul Tory - but they find it hard to really go to town.
I think the most dangerous development for both LAB and the LDs would be the Tories replacing Johnson with Sunak in the run-up to the general election.
Unlikely as long as the Tories continue to lead the polls.
Thatcher was only replaced by her Chancellor, Major, once the Tories trailed Kinnock's Labour badly after the poll tax.
Sunak may be the most popular senior politician at the moment but Boris still has higher favourables than Starmer too.
It looks like Starmer's best chance of becoming PM would be for Priti Patel to become Tory leader, she looks to be far more unpopular than Boris overall
Patel leader.
She is a disaster and needs to be thrown out of the cabinet
I'm not an expert in cyber security but I've been involved in a number of restrictive covenant cases where phones have conveniently been "lost" and AIUI there will be backups of these messages somewhere.
I wonder if it was the dissing of the RNLI that did it for Ms Patel?
She's also losing favour with the kind of people who wanted to stop all migration to the UK. The story about paying France £54m to stop migration went down very badly.
Personally I'd love to see the UK opening up its borders and welcoming people with open arms and to have the kind of wonderful cosmopolitan life which made this country such a beacon. But the kind of Brexiteers who loathe all of that and call it 'woke' aren't very happy with Ms Patel right now.
Q: Why did the chicken cross the road? A: To avoid meeting Nicola Sturgeon...
I approve of Boris putting Nicola in her place. It’s a delicate balance, and he needs to avoid insulting the Scots, but Nicola pretends to a status she simply does not have.
She is the First Minister. And this is not an isolated incident but a sustained pattern of refusal to engage. Which is not good for government at any level.
Nicola is given an inch and takes a yard. She pretty much weaponises all her engagements with U.K. level people and institutions.
Perhaps a period of isolation is indeed called for.
"Is called for": it's been inflicted by the government in Whitehall for years now, was my point.
Well we probably agree that Whitehall’s approach to Scotland has been disastrous.
But I’m fed up with Nicola. She is largely given a free ride by the media, too, even though she wants to BREAK UP MY COUNTRY.
Please be precise: your state. Noit your country.
Not this crap again.
Nationalists rightly dont like being told their view of nationality is invalid. Unionists rightly dont like it either.
Country status is inherently arbitrary as all matters of borders and identity are. They are real if people consider them real, and if they can persuade others internationally they can get recognised.
Insulting people by saying their country is not a country is just being impolite for no reason, since theres no objective reality to it.
The UK is my country. England is too, in this country of countries. It is perfectly ok for people to not feel the same and to want to break up either of those entities or indeed both. But they don't get to determine what others feel anymore than I could determine what they feel.
Well for me my only country is Scotland, UK is not and never has been a "country" and anyone pretending so is not right in the tattie.
This is my precise point malc. You dont consider it your country, whatever legalities exist. That's your view and its fine. You cannot be forced to feel an attachment to the UK.
Why be so rude and deny the validity of others taking a different view though? Who are you to claim you have the right to declare your country is a country but others who take a different view cannot do the same?
That's just plain disrespectful to one another and I cannot see the point - my view that the UK is my country, held by many, in no way diminishes your strong view that only Scotland is your country. Sure, someone will point to states and law, but your identity remains unaffected to you.
Why cannot my identity be real? Because it was a legal construct centuries ago? All countries are constructs, they are all real if enough people feel they are.
You dont want your identity dictated by others - why is it therefore ok for you to dictate about others' identities?
All countries are ultimately imaginary constructs, from San Marino to China. If everyone woke up tomorrow and stopped believing in, say, Canada then Canada would cease to exist. As an intellectual challenge try and come up with a workable definition of "Europe" (not just the EU) that is not a cultural contruct.
'I did not decline offer to meet with Nicola Sturgeon, Boris Johnson claims BORIS Johnson has denied that he declined an offer to meet with Nicola Sturgeon during his two-day visit to Scotland.'
'Boris Johnson 'quite right' to reject Nicola Sturgeon talks, Douglas Ross claims'
Q: Why did the chicken cross the road? A: To avoid meeting Nicola Sturgeon...
I approve of Boris putting Nicola in her place. It’s a delicate balance, and he needs to avoid insulting the Scots, but Nicola pretends to a status she simply does not have.
She is the First Minister. And this is not an isolated incident but a sustained pattern of refusal to engage. Which is not good for government at any level.
Nicola is given an inch and takes a yard. She pretty much weaponises all her engagements with U.K. level people and institutions.
Perhaps a period of isolation is indeed called for.
"Is called for": it's been inflicted by the government in Whitehall for years now, was my point.
Well we probably agree that Whitehall’s approach to Scotland has been disastrous.
But I’m fed up with Nicola. She is largely given a free ride by the media, too, even though she wants to BREAK UP MY COUNTRY.
Please be precise: your state. Noit your country.
Not this crap again.
Nationalists rightly dont like being told their view of nationality is invalid. Unionists rightly dont like it either.
Country status is inherently arbitrary as all matters of borders and identity are. They are real if people consider them real, and if they can persuade others internationally they can get recognised.
Insulting people by saying their country is not a country is just being impolite for no reason, since theres no objective reality to it.
The UK is my country. England is too, in this country of countries. It is perfectly ok for people to not feel the same and to want to break up either of those entities or indeed both. But they don't get to determine what others feel anymore than I could determine what they feel.
Well for me my only country is Scotland, UK is not and never has been a "country" and anyone pretending so is not right in the tattie.
This is my precise point malc. You dont consider it your country, whatever legalities exist. That's your view and its fine. You cannot be forced to feel an attachment to the UK.
Why be so rude and deny the validity of others taking a different view though? Who are you to claim you have the right to declare your country is a country but others who take a different view cannot do the same?
That's just plain disrespectful to one another and I cannot see the point - my view that the UK is my country, held by many, in no way diminishes your strong view that only Scotland is your country. Sure, someone will point to states and law, but your identity remains unaffected to you.
Why cannot my identity be real? Because it was a legal construct centuries ago? All countries are constructs, they are all real if enough people feel they are.
You dont want your identity dictated by others - why is it therefore ok for you to dictate about others' identities?
All countries are ultimately imaginary constructs, from San Marino to China. If everyone woke up tomorrow and stopped believing in, say, Canada then Canada would cease to exist. As an intellectual challenge try and come up with a workable definition of "Europe" (not just the EU) that is not a cultural contruct.
The land between the Ural Mountains and the sea?
Gets fuzzy down south tho. The idea that Europe somehow ends at Azerbaijan is magical thinking
Possibly on topic - I've noticed that my more left friend struggle with condemning Sunak. Obviously they can't like him - Evul Tory - but they find it hard to really go to town.
I think the most dangerous development for both LAB and the LDs would be the Tories replacing Johnson with Sunak in the run-up to the general election.
Unlikely as long as the Tories continue to lead the polls.
Thatcher was only replaced by her Chancellor, Major, once the Tories trailed Kinnock's Labour badly after the poll tax.
Sunak may be the most popular senior politician at the moment but Boris still has higher favourables than Starmer too.
It looks like Starmer's best chance of becoming PM would be for Priti Patel to become Tory leader, she looks to be far more unpopular than Boris overall
The Tories are polling worse than the 11.7% lead at GE2019 - therefore they will lose seats. They'll also suffer in Remain seats where the LDs are in second place and there are a lot of graduates.
The Tories are still heading for at least the majority they got in 1992 in most polls.
If Conservatives, whether on here or elsewhere, wish to be complacent about their current standing then that's fine by me. The proof of the pudding will be in the eating and recent on the ground results have not gone their way.
I am expecting the Labour and Liberal Democrat Parties to continue their slow but steady progress.
Personally I think the Conservatives are in a precarious position right now. Boris has a habit of luck so he may pull things around but I'm increasingly of the view that it's about to go severely pear-shaped for him.
Who is the target audience? Do most people know what a burner phone is and do they care?
This will get him likes on Twitter but won’t actually achieve anything
Agreed. I'm not entirely sure what a burner phone is, and I'm quite plugged into The Culture
Perhaps 5% of the nation will understand?
Clearly he is a fan of the Wire....its too niche a reference to criminals who use deposal phone...and of course out dated, we know now criminals have all been using specialist encrypted phones.
'I did not decline offer to meet with Nicola Sturgeon, Boris Johnson claims BORIS Johnson has denied that he declined an offer to meet with Nicola Sturgeon during his two-day visit to Scotland.'
'Boris Johnson 'quite right' to reject Nicola Sturgeon talks, Douglas Ross claims'
I wonder if it was the dissing of the RNLI that did it for Ms Patel?
That and the whole take-the-knee thing I'd have thought. She just sounded like a cynical politician on the make.
We have no previous data. She has never been flavour of the month with anyone rational, surely.
This ConHome survey implies quite a drop, though DYOR on probably different methodology, not to mention different population, and timing vis a vis footie kneelers and RNLI heroes:
"Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, also saw her support among the party's grassroots plummet in July. Patel’s net approval ratings were down 20 points, from 46 to 26, between June and July."
Be careful of confirmation bias.
It's far more likely that this is because she's totally failed to get a grip on the croas-channel crossings.
I notice a new record number of 482 successfully crossed yesterday, making it over 10,000 this year - so far.
Something to think of.
When, after the war, the military gamed Sealion, they estimated that 10% losses due to environment were probable for the poorly equipped German barges.
Given the RIBs used for the crossing are tiny, overloaded, no skilled seamen involved, this could be worse.
10,000 people made it - how many dead?
At least 1,000....
There was a story about some drowning just off the French coast, but that's about it.
I guess there's a lot of water, but would we expect some evidence (e.g. empty boats turning up)?
The Germans didn't get to phone the RNLI as soon as they were over the halfway mark. Or the French equivalent if it goes really wrong on the French side of the the line.
I think it's fairly obvious from the absence of daily media stories that hundreds of people aren't drowning in the channel every week - probably mostly because the RNLI are quite good at their job.
Q: Why did the chicken cross the road? A: To avoid meeting Nicola Sturgeon...
I approve of Boris putting Nicola in her place. It’s a delicate balance, and he needs to avoid insulting the Scots, but Nicola pretends to a status she simply does not have.
She is the First Minister. And this is not an isolated incident but a sustained pattern of refusal to engage. Which is not good for government at any level.
Nicola is given an inch and takes a yard. She pretty much weaponises all her engagements with U.K. level people and institutions.
Perhaps a period of isolation is indeed called for.
"Is called for": it's been inflicted by the government in Whitehall for years now, was my point.
Well we probably agree that Whitehall’s approach to Scotland has been disastrous.
But I’m fed up with Nicola. She is largely given a free ride by the media, too, even though she wants to BREAK UP MY COUNTRY.
Please be precise: your state. Noit your country.
Not this crap again.
Nationalists rightly dont like being told their view of nationality is invalid. Unionists rightly dont like it either.
Country status is inherently arbitrary as all matters of borders and identity are. They are real if people consider them real, and if they can persuade others internationally they can get recognised.
Insulting people by saying their country is not a country is just being impolite for no reason, since theres no objective reality to it.
The UK is my country. England is too, in this country of countries. It is perfectly ok for people to not feel the same and to want to break up either of those entities or indeed both. But they don't get to determine what others feel anymore than I could determine what they feel.
Well for me my only country is Scotland, UK is not and never has been a "country" and anyone pretending so is not right in the tattie.
This is my precise point malc. You dont consider it your country, whatever legalities exist. That's your view and its fine. You cannot be forced to feel an attachment to the UK.
Why be so rude and deny the validity of others taking a different view though? Who are you to claim you have the right to declare your country is a country but others who take a different view cannot do the same?
That's just plain disrespectful to one another and I cannot see the point - my view that the UK is my country, held by many, in no way diminishes your strong view that only Scotland is your country. Sure, someone will point to states and law, but your identity remains unaffected to you.
Why cannot my identity be real? Because it was a legal construct centuries ago? All countries are constructs, they are all real if enough people feel they are.
You dont want your identity dictated by others - why is it therefore ok for you to dictate about others' identities?
All countries are ultimately imaginary constructs, from San Marino to China. If everyone woke up tomorrow and stopped believing in, say, Canada then Canada would cease to exist. As an intellectual challenge try and come up with a workable definition of "Europe" (not just the EU) that is not a cultural contruct.
The land between the Ural Mountains and the sea?
Good definintion and the one that is usually used. But it excludes Cyprus which, by any purely geographical definition, is in Asia, unless you consider Anatolia as being in Europe, which would require you to reframe your definition, so the EU must be working off a different one.
Who is the target audience? Do most people know what a burner phone is and do they care?
This will get him likes on Twitter but won’t actually achieve anything
Agreed. I'm not entirely sure what a burner phone is, and I'm quite plugged into The Culture
Perhaps 5% of the nation will understand?
Clearly he is a fan of the Wire....its too niche a reference to criminals who use deposal phone...and of course out dated, we know now criminals have all been using specialist encrypted phones.
I wonder if it was the dissing of the RNLI that did it for Ms Patel?
That and the whole take-the-knee thing I'd have thought. She just sounded like a cynical politician on the make.
We have no previous data. She has never been flavour of the month with anyone rational, surely.
This ConHome survey implies quite a drop, though DYOR on probably different methodology, not to mention different population, and timing vis a vis footie kneelers and RNLI heroes:
"Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, also saw her support among the party's grassroots plummet in July. Patel’s net approval ratings were down 20 points, from 46 to 26, between June and July."
Be careful of confirmation bias.
It's far more likely that this is because she's totally failed to get a grip on the croas-channel crossings.
I notice a new record number of 482 successfully crossed yesterday, making it over 10,000 this year - so far.
Something to think of.
When, after the war, the military gamed Sealion, they estimated that 10% losses due to environment were probable for the poorly equipped German barges.
Given the RIBs used for the crossing are tiny, overloaded, no skilled seamen involved, this could be worse.
10,000 people made it - how many dead?
At least 1,000....
There was a story about some drowning just off the French coast, but that's about it.
I guess there's a lot of water, but would we expect some evidence (e.g. empty boats turning up)?
The Germans didn't get to phone the RNLI as soon as they were over the halfway mark though did they. Or the French equivalent if it goes really wrong on the French side of the the line.
I think it's fairly obvious from the absence of daily media stories about it that hundreds of people aren't drowning in the channel every week - probably mostly because the RNLI are quite good at their job.
We don't know. You are assuming the the RNLI get the call. But even if they do - do we have numbers on how many calls they get, they turn up, and it's empty sea.
The Channel is quite a nasty place for a swim. Even in a life jacket you won't last very long.
Q: Why did the chicken cross the road? A: To avoid meeting Nicola Sturgeon...
I approve of Boris putting Nicola in her place. It’s a delicate balance, and he needs to avoid insulting the Scots, but Nicola pretends to a status she simply does not have.
She is the First Minister. And this is not an isolated incident but a sustained pattern of refusal to engage. Which is not good for government at any level.
Nicola is given an inch and takes a yard. She pretty much weaponises all her engagements with U.K. level people and institutions.
Perhaps a period of isolation is indeed called for.
"Is called for": it's been inflicted by the government in Whitehall for years now, was my point.
Well we probably agree that Whitehall’s approach to Scotland has been disastrous.
But I’m fed up with Nicola. She is largely given a free ride by the media, too, even though she wants to BREAK UP MY COUNTRY.
Please be precise: your state. Noit your country.
Not this crap again.
Nationalists rightly dont like being told their view of nationality is invalid. Unionists rightly dont like it either.
Country status is inherently arbitrary as all matters of borders and identity are. They are real if people consider them real, and if they can persuade others internationally they can get recognised.
Insulting people by saying their country is not a country is just being impolite for no reason, since theres no objective reality to it.
The UK is my country. England is too, in this country of countries. It is perfectly ok for people to not feel the same and to want to break up either of those entities or indeed both. But they don't get to determine what others feel anymore than I could determine what they feel.
Well for me my only country is Scotland, UK is not and never has been a "country" and anyone pretending so is not right in the tattie.
This is my precise point malc. You dont consider it your country, whatever legalities exist. That's your view and its fine. You cannot be forced to feel an attachment to the UK.
Why be so rude and deny the validity of others taking a different view though? Who are you to claim you have the right to declare your country is a country but others who take a different view cannot do the same?
That's just plain disrespectful to one another and I cannot see the point - my view that the UK is my country, held by many, in no way diminishes your strong view that only Scotland is your country. Sure, someone will point to states and law, but your identity remains unaffected to you.
Why cannot my identity be real? Because it was a legal construct centuries ago? All countries are constructs, they are all real if enough people feel they are.
You dont want your identity dictated by others - why is it therefore ok for you to dictate about others' identities?
All countries are ultimately imaginary constructs, from San Marino to China. If everyone woke up tomorrow and stopped believing in, say, Canada then Canada would cease to exist. As an intellectual challenge try and come up with a workable definition of "Europe" (not just the EU) that is not a cultural contruct.
The land between the Ural Mountains and the sea?
Good definintion and the one that is usually used. But it excludes Cyprus which, by any purely geographical definition, is in Asia, unless you consider Anatolia as being in Europe, which would require you to reframe your definition, so the EU must be working off a different one.
Anatolia isn’t in Europe - Asia Minor is probably part of Asia although I think helpful to cut off at some point - say the Hindu Kush
Who is the target audience? Do most people know what a burner phone is and do they care?
This will get him likes on Twitter but won’t actually achieve anything
Agreed. I'm not entirely sure what a burner phone is, and I'm quite plugged into The Culture
Perhaps 5% of the nation will understand?
Leon, you have shocked me. I think 99% of population know what a burner phone is. I can't think of any appropriate TV or film doesn't mention them umpteen times.
Obviously appropriate is important. They don't crop up much in Pride and Prejudice.
You Gov for some reason have far fewer "Don't Knows" for Sir Keir, just 19% - their latest poll was +22/-57. They really are an outlier for him, I wonder why. They filter out the politically engaged, which I think is a great idea (although should surely mean more "Don't Knows") but even so, that net score of -38 is a massive difference to everyone else. More than double the next worst
What is quite strange with this ISPOS-MORI poll, to me anyway, is that 39% "Dont Know" about Sir Keir, whereas the last two polls by them had 23% and 27% saying so - The more people see him the more they don't know? Is that usual?
Possibly on topic - I've noticed that my more left friend struggle with condemning Sunak. Obviously they can't like him - Evul Tory - but they find it hard to really go to town.
I think the most dangerous development for both LAB and the LDs would be the Tories replacing Johnson with Sunak in the run-up to the general election.
Of course (and that might be true of other potential replacements, if close enough to the next election) - but is it at all likely ?
If the Daily Mail has to put a phrase in inverted commas because it will strike readers as odd and not immediately understandable, then it is safe to say it has not entered the common lexicon. So yeah, you aren't plugged into The Culture or you would sense this
Q: Why did the chicken cross the road? A: To avoid meeting Nicola Sturgeon...
I approve of Boris putting Nicola in her place. It’s a delicate balance, and he needs to avoid insulting the Scots, but Nicola pretends to a status she simply does not have.
She is the First Minister. And this is not an isolated incident but a sustained pattern of refusal to engage. Which is not good for government at any level.
Nicola is given an inch and takes a yard. She pretty much weaponises all her engagements with U.K. level people and institutions.
Perhaps a period of isolation is indeed called for.
"Is called for": it's been inflicted by the government in Whitehall for years now, was my point.
Well we probably agree that Whitehall’s approach to Scotland has been disastrous.
But I’m fed up with Nicola. She is largely given a free ride by the media, too, even though she wants to BREAK UP MY COUNTRY.
Please be precise: your state. Noit your country.
Not this crap again.
Nationalists rightly dont like being told their view of nationality is invalid. Unionists rightly dont like it either.
Country status is inherently arbitrary as all matters of borders and identity are. They are real if people consider them real, and if they can persuade others internationally they can get recognised.
Insulting people by saying their country is not a country is just being impolite for no reason, since theres no objective reality to it.
The UK is my country. England is too, in this country of countries. It is perfectly ok for people to not feel the same and to want to break up either of those entities or indeed both. But they don't get to determine what others feel anymore than I could determine what they feel.
Well for me my only country is Scotland, UK is not and never has been a "country" and anyone pretending so is not right in the tattie.
This is my precise point malc. You dont consider it your country, whatever legalities exist. That's your view and its fine. You cannot be forced to feel an attachment to the UK.
Why be so rude and deny the validity of others taking a different view though? Who are you to claim you have the right to declare your country is a country but others who take a different view cannot do the same?
That's just plain disrespectful to one another and I cannot see the point - my view that the UK is my country, held by many, in no way diminishes your strong view that only Scotland is your country. Sure, someone will point to states and law, but your identity remains unaffected to you.
Why cannot my identity be real? Because it was a legal construct centuries ago? All countries are constructs, they are all real if enough people feel they are.
You dont want your identity dictated by others - why is it therefore ok for you to dictate about others' identities?
All countries are ultimately imaginary constructs, from San Marino to China. If everyone woke up tomorrow and stopped believing in, say, Canada then Canada would cease to exist. As an intellectual challenge try and come up with a workable definition of "Europe" (not just the EU) that is not a cultural contruct.
The land between the Ural Mountains and the sea?
Good definintion and the one that is usually used. But it excludes Cyprus which, by any purely geographical definition, is in Asia, unless you consider Anatolia as being in Europe, which would require you to reframe your definition, so the EU must be working off a different one.
Anatolia isn’t in Europe - Asia Minor is probably part of Asia although I think helpful to cut off at some point - say the Hindu Kush
Indeed.
There are always blurred lines around the boundaries of definition. But DougSeal is just being a wind-up. Europe is clearly a defined area and in many ways a lot more defined than some others in the world e.g. Southeast Asia.
'Africa' too has all manner of issues when it comes to lumping together disparate peoples and with a bloody great desert that marks a very clear cultural, ethnic and climatic difference between the 'top' 1/4 and the 3/4's 'below'.
Then there's Professor Ali Mazrui who famously argued that the Arabian peninsular should be considered African, whilst some others think Egypt is Middle-eastern and not part of Africa etc. etc.
Fact is that most sub-Saharan Africans consider themselves African and most Europeans consider themselves European.
If the Daily Mail has to put a phrase in inverted commas because it will strike readers as odd and not immediately understandable, then it is safe to say it has not entered the common lexicon. So yeah, you aren't plugged into The Culture or you would sense this
It will be understood by anyone who watches American crime dramas.
As to effective messaging - who knows. It does have a hint of preaching to the fan club, though.
Q: Why did the chicken cross the road? A: To avoid meeting Nicola Sturgeon...
I approve of Boris putting Nicola in her place. It’s a delicate balance, and he needs to avoid insulting the Scots, but Nicola pretends to a status she simply does not have.
She is the First Minister. And this is not an isolated incident but a sustained pattern of refusal to engage. Which is not good for government at any level.
Nicola is given an inch and takes a yard. She pretty much weaponises all her engagements with U.K. level people and institutions.
Perhaps a period of isolation is indeed called for.
"Is called for": it's been inflicted by the government in Whitehall for years now, was my point.
Well we probably agree that Whitehall’s approach to Scotland has been disastrous.
But I’m fed up with Nicola. She is largely given a free ride by the media, too, even though she wants to BREAK UP MY COUNTRY.
Please be precise: your state. Noit your country.
Not this crap again.
Nationalists rightly dont like being told their view of nationality is invalid. Unionists rightly dont like it either.
Country status is inherently arbitrary as all matters of borders and identity are. They are real if people consider them real, and if they can persuade others internationally they can get recognised.
Insulting people by saying their country is not a country is just being impolite for no reason, since theres no objective reality to it.
The UK is my country. England is too, in this country of countries. It is perfectly ok for people to not feel the same and to want to break up either of those entities or indeed both. But they don't get to determine what others feel anymore than I could determine what they feel.
Well for me my only country is Scotland, UK is not and never has been a "country" and anyone pretending so is not right in the tattie.
This is my precise point malc. You dont consider it your country, whatever legalities exist. That's your view and its fine. You cannot be forced to feel an attachment to the UK.
Why be so rude and deny the validity of others taking a different view though? Who are you to claim you have the right to declare your country is a country but others who take a different view cannot do the same?
That's just plain disrespectful to one another and I cannot see the point - my view that the UK is my country, held by many, in no way diminishes your strong view that only Scotland is your country. Sure, someone will point to states and law, but your identity remains unaffected to you.
Why cannot my identity be real? Because it was a legal construct centuries ago? All countries are constructs, they are all real if enough people feel they are.
You dont want your identity dictated by others - why is it therefore ok for you to dictate about others' identities?
All countries are ultimately imaginary constructs, from San Marino to China. If everyone woke up tomorrow and stopped believing in, say, Canada then Canada would cease to exist. As an intellectual challenge try and come up with a workable definition of "Europe" (not just the EU) that is not a cultural contruct.
The land between the Ural Mountains and the sea?
Good definintion and the one that is usually used. But it excludes Cyprus which, by any purely geographical definition, is in Asia, unless you consider Anatolia as being in Europe, which would require you to reframe your definition, so the EU must be working off a different one.
Anatolia isn’t in Europe - Asia Minor is probably part of Asia although I think helpful to cut off at some point - say the Hindu Kush
Exactly my point. Europe is a cultural concept that grew out of "Christendom". The Romans would have laughed at the idea that Britain or Northern Gaul were culturally more similar to Rome than Anatolia or North Africa. The clue is in the etymology of "Mediterranean".
Then the Islamic conquest of what remained of the Byzantine Empire in 1453 (in addition to the long since gone North African provinces of Rome) made the Med a cultural border rather than a centre. That, coupled with the colonisation of the Americas made it necessary for us to come up with a geographical label that positively differentiated this Eurasian penninsular from the rest of the world.
Thus the concept of Europe took greater hold from the start of the Early Modern period whereas previously "Christendom" was more used.
Possibly on topic - I've noticed that my more left friend struggle with condemning Sunak. Obviously they can't like him - Evul Tory - but they find it hard to really go to town.
I think the most dangerous development for both LAB and the LDs would be the Tories replacing Johnson with Sunak in the run-up to the general election.
Of course (and that might be true of other potential replacements, if close enough to the next election) - but is it at all likely ?
It would only occur if Boris is doing so badly, that the belief in the parliamentary party is that a successful campaign won't save the next election.
If the Daily Mail has to put a phrase in inverted commas because it will strike readers as odd and not immediately understandable, then it is safe to say it has not entered the common lexicon. So yeah, you aren't plugged into The Culture or you would sense this
You're spending too much time with your petrified penises and not enough with trashy novels.
Possibly on topic - I've noticed that my more left friend struggle with condemning Sunak. Obviously they can't like him - Evul Tory - but they find it hard to really go to town.
I think the most dangerous development for both LAB and the LDs would be the Tories replacing Johnson with Sunak in the run-up to the general election.
Unlikely as long as the Tories continue to lead the polls.
Thatcher was only replaced by her Chancellor, Major, once the Tories trailed Kinnock's Labour badly after the poll tax.
Sunak may be the most popular senior politician at the moment but Boris still has higher favourables than Starmer too.
It looks like Starmer's best chance of becoming PM would be for Priti Patel to become Tory leader, she looks to be far more unpopular than Boris overall
The Tories are polling worse than the 11.7% lead at GE2019 - therefore they will lose seats. They'll also suffer in Remain seats where the LDs are in second place and there are a lot of graduates.
They polled worse than that 11.7% lead in 11 of the last 13 polls before GE2019 too!
I see John Lewis is trending in twitter....all in the outrage bus that they have been named and shamed for being scumbag employer who doesn't pay minimum wage.
Obviously isnt true and danger of media headlines using well known companies in their headlines, which twist the report into minimum wage failures. Obviously nobody on twitter actually reads the accompanying copy for the context.
Possibly on topic - I've noticed that my more left friend struggle with condemning Sunak. Obviously they can't like him - Evul Tory - but they find it hard to really go to town.
I think the most dangerous development for both LAB and the LDs would be the Tories replacing Johnson with Sunak in the run-up to the general election.
Unlikely as long as the Tories continue to lead the polls.
Thatcher was only replaced by her Chancellor, Major, once the Tories trailed Kinnock's Labour badly after the poll tax.
Sunak may be the most popular senior politician at the moment but Boris still has higher favourables than Starmer too.
It looks like Starmer's best chance of becoming PM would be for Priti Patel to become Tory leader, she looks to be far more unpopular than Boris overall
The Tories are polling worse than the 11.7% lead at GE2019 - therefore they will lose seats. They'll also suffer in Remain seats where the LDs are in second place and there are a lot of graduates.
They polled worse than that 11.7% lead in 11 of the last 13 polls before GE2019 too!
Yes - mid term polling is only indicative. The actual numbers at the next election are not determinable at this point.
If the Daily Mail has to put a phrase in inverted commas because it will strike readers as odd and not immediately understandable, then it is safe to say it has not entered the common lexicon. So yeah, you aren't plugged into The Culture or you would sense this
You're spending too much time with your petrified penises and not enough with trashy novels.
You're saying he's only butt plugged into the Culture ?
I see John Lewis is trending in twitter....all in the outrage bus that they have been named and shamed for being scumbag employer who doesn't pay minimum wage.
Obviously isnt true and danger of media headlines using well known companies in their headlines, which twist the report into minimum wage failures. Obviously nobody on twitter actually reads the accompanying copy for the context.
Given that John Lewis reputation is one of the things that make them mostly likely to be last-man-standing in the Dept Store end game, it would be interesting to see if someone is pushing this.
If the Daily Mail has to put a phrase in inverted commas because it will strike readers as odd and not immediately understandable, then it is safe to say it has not entered the common lexicon. So yeah, you aren't plugged into The Culture or you would sense this
It will be understood by anyone who watches American crime dramas.
As to effective messaging - who knows. It does have a hint of preaching to the fan club, though.
I'm not even sure that is true. And this is partly because, if you google the phrase, there is dispute as to what it means, even for those who use the term
For some it means a non-smart phone that is simply cheap and can be thrown away if it "gets traced"
For others it is a phone that can be easily bought and used with a false identity
For others it is a cheap phone that must have prepaid minutes
And so on.
Therefore Charles is right, even if you have a decent grasp of what a burner phone is (one of these or similar definitions) then it is not clear what charge Labour is making against the government
"Government by burner phone". It reckon it is a line which sounded cool and hip to middle aged people in an ideas meeting, but now withers in embarrassment when it encounters the real world, like one of those deep-water fish in Lake Baikal which explode when they hit the surface
Who is the target audience? Do most people know what a burner phone is and do they care?
This will get him likes on Twitter but won’t actually achieve anything
Agreed. I'm not entirely sure what a burner phone is, and I'm quite plugged into The Culture
Perhaps 5% of the nation will understand?
And for that 5% it will resonate. Segmented marketing very clever.
And I suggest you (re)watch The Wire, or take a trip to any of your local drug dealing hotspots if you're not sure what a burner phone is.
Eh? I know what a burner is. And I hate **** mobeys. And I'm old enough to remember Hornby Dublo was the highest tech a child got to see, the TV aside.
This is well targeted at young people who need to be motivated to vote Labour. The old farts who don't know what a burner is tend to be Tory voters.
If the Daily Mail has to put a phrase in inverted commas because it will strike readers as odd and not immediately understandable, then it is safe to say it has not entered the common lexicon. So yeah, you aren't plugged into The Culture or you would sense this
You're spending too much time with your petrified penises and not enough with trashy novels.
You're saying he's only butt plugged into the Culture ?
Who is the target audience? Do most people know what a burner phone is and do they care?
This will get him likes on Twitter but won’t actually achieve anything
Agreed. I'm not entirely sure what a burner phone is, and I'm quite plugged into The Culture
Perhaps 5% of the nation will understand?
And for that 5% it will resonate. Segmented marketing very clever.
And I suggest you (re)watch The Wire, or take a trip to any of your local drug dealing hotspots if you're not sure what a burner phone is.
Eh? I know what a burner is. And I hate **** mobeys. And I'm old enough to remember Hornby Dublo was the highest tech a child got to see, the TV aside.
This is well targeted at young people who need to be motivated to vote Labour. The old farts who don't know what a burner is tend to be Tory voters.
And even if you don't know exactly what a burner phone is, it doesn't sound reputable, does it?
(The number of Conservative-friendly posters who've pounced on this as a bad idea does make me think it's probably a good idea that needs to be rubbished. Remember chaps- Never interrupt your enemy if they're making a mistake.)
Who is the target audience? Do most people know what a burner phone is and do they care?
This will get him likes on Twitter but won’t actually achieve anything
Agreed. I'm not entirely sure what a burner phone is, and I'm quite plugged into The Culture
Perhaps 5% of the nation will understand?
And for that 5% it will resonate. Segmented marketing very clever.
And I suggest you (re)watch The Wire, or take a trip to any of your local drug dealing hotspots if you're not sure what a burner phone is.
Eh? I know what a burner is. And I hate **** mobeys. And I'm old enough to remember Hornby Dublo was the highest tech a child got to see, the TV aside.
This is well targeted at young people who need to be motivated to vote Labour. The old farts who don't know what a burner is tend to be Tory voters.
It is exactly the opposite. It is a term which sounds cool and trendy to much older people, but is *cringe* with young people, if they even understand it. Remember that one of the biggest fans of Line of Duty is the Queen.
This explains why the Uniondivvie is so turned on by it, as an elderly Scot it makes him feel part of Da Yoof, for a few sad, poignant seconds
If too clever by half social media posters were that effective, LedByDonkeys would be deciding who runs the country.
What really does for governments is when things personally (could) effect a big proportion of the voting population e.g. dementia tax and more recently pingdemic...so many people are hopping mad about having been pinged or contacted by test and trace and having to isolate just as the nice weather came....while also hearing day in day out we are all going to hell in a handbasket with 100,000s of daily cases incoming shortly...after hearing all the talk of Freeeeeeeeeeeedom day.
If the Daily Mail has to put a phrase in inverted commas because it will strike readers as odd and not immediately understandable, then it is safe to say it has not entered the common lexicon. So yeah, you aren't plugged into The Culture or you would sense this
It will be understood by anyone who watches American crime dramas.
As to effective messaging - who knows. It does have a hint of preaching to the fan club, though.
It’s as effective as saying “Keir Starmer’s the Jeb Bartlett of the UK”
Who is the target audience? Do most people know what a burner phone is and do they care?
This will get him likes on Twitter but won’t actually achieve anything
Agreed. I'm not entirely sure what a burner phone is, and I'm quite plugged into The Culture
Perhaps 5% of the nation will understand?
And for that 5% it will resonate. Segmented marketing very clever.
And I suggest you (re)watch The Wire, or take a trip to any of your local drug dealing hotspots if you're not sure what a burner phone is.
Eh? I know what a burner is. And I hate **** mobeys. And I'm old enough to remember Hornby Dublo was the highest tech a child got to see, the TV aside.
This is well targeted at young people who need to be motivated to vote Labour. The old farts who don't know what a burner is tend to be Tory voters.
It is exactly the opposite. It is a term which sounds cool and trendy to much older people, but is *cringe* with young people, if they even understand it. Remember that one of the biggest fans of Line of Duty is the Queen.
This explains why the Uniondivvie is so turned on by it, as an elderly Scot it makes him feel part of Da Yoof, for a few sad, poignant seconds
Its difficult, because it can easily be twisted as being very insensitive and leaping on a personal tragedy. You need the family onboard really and again the man from the government phoning up saying can we use your husband's death as a PSA, rather risky, as they might go to the media and say his body wasn't even cold and they phoned me up.
Who is the target audience? Do most people know what a burner phone is and do they care?
This will get him likes on Twitter but won’t actually achieve anything
Agreed. I'm not entirely sure what a burner phone is, and I'm quite plugged into The Culture
Perhaps 5% of the nation will understand?
And for that 5% it will resonate. Segmented marketing very clever.
And I suggest you (re)watch The Wire, or take a trip to any of your local drug dealing hotspots if you're not sure what a burner phone is.
Eh? I know what a burner is. And I hate **** mobeys. And I'm old enough to remember Hornby Dublo was the highest tech a child got to see, the TV aside.
This is well targeted at young people who need to be motivated to vote Labour. The old farts who don't know what a burner is tend to be Tory voters.
It is exactly the opposite. It is a term which sounds cool and trendy to much older people, but is *cringe* with young people, if they even understand it. Remember that one of the biggest fans of Line of Duty is the Queen.
This explains why the Uniondivvie is so turned on by it, as an elderly Scot it makes him feel part of Da Yoof, for a few sad, poignant seconds
The Queen likes Line of Duty? She has gone up in my estimation. My Dad is 95 and has no desire to watch it and if he did would not have a clue what is going on.
Comments
I wonder if it was the dissing of the RNLI that did it for Ms Patel?
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/08/how-low-boris-johnson-s-approval-rating-falling
"Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, also saw her support among the party's grassroots plummet in July. Patel’s net approval ratings were down 20 points, from 46 to 26, between June and July."
Thatcher was only replaced by her Chancellor, Major, once the Tories trailed Kinnock's Labour badly after the poll tax.
Sunak may be the most popular senior politician at the moment but Boris still has higher favourables than Starmer too.
It looks like Starmer's best chance of becoming PM would be for Priti Patel to become Tory leader, she looks to be far more unpopular than Boris overall
Not that I want the Aussies to lose, mind. I just want us to beat them
Why be so rude and deny the validity of others taking a different view though? Who are you to claim you have the right to declare your country is a country but others who take a different view cannot do the same?
That's just plain disrespectful to one another and I cannot see the point - my view that the UK is my country, held by many, in no way diminishes your strong view that only Scotland is your country. Sure, someone will point to states and law, but your identity remains unaffected to you.
Why cannot my identity be real? Because it was a legal construct centuries ago? All countries are constructs, they are all real if enough people feel they are.
You dont want your identity dictated by others - why is it therefore ok for you to dictate about others' identities?
Eddy Weather (Dr. Eddy Graham)
@eddy_weather
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14h
I've just worked out the stats: Stornoway's June+July 2021 rainfall total of 57.6mm is the 2nd lowest on record of the past 148yrs - so the extreme drought situation remains very real indeed @MichelleRobson8
@gmrpetricca
@weloveSY
It's far more likely that this is because she's totally failed to get a grip on the croas-channel crossings.
I notice a new record number of 482 successfully crossed yesterday, making it over 10,000 this year - so far.
At the moment we are deeply in mid-term. And governments being ahead in the polls mid-term does not generally point to election failure.
They may even get some more Leave seats like Hartlepool to offset any losses in Remain seats like Chesham.
There is also no evidence that Labour and LD voters who like Sunak would actually switch to voting Tory if he was Tory leader
When, after the war, the military gamed Sealion, they estimated that 10% losses due to environment were probable for the poorly equipped German barges.
Given the RIBs used for the crossing are tiny, overloaded, no skilled seamen involved, this could be worse.
10,000 people made it - how many dead?
At least 1,000....
I guess there's a lot of water, but would we expect some evidence (e.g. empty boats turning up)?
What is completely unlikely, is that the current polls will be the result on election day.
She is a disaster and needs to be thrown out of the cabinet
Utterly useless
Yesterday broke records for the numbers of migrants coming to the UK: 482 landing on British beaches. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-58100694
Personally I'd love to see the UK opening up its borders and welcoming people with open arms and to have the kind of wonderful cosmopolitan life which made this country such a beacon. But the kind of Brexiteers who loathe all of that and call it 'woke' aren't very happy with Ms Patel right now.
What’s the message that it’s trying to sell?
Who is the target audience? Do most people know what a burner phone is and do they care?
This will get him likes on Twitter but won’t actually achieve anything
Perhaps 5% of the nation will understand?
'I did not decline offer to meet with Nicola Sturgeon, Boris Johnson claims
BORIS Johnson has denied that he declined an offer to meet with Nicola Sturgeon during his two-day visit to Scotland.'
'Boris Johnson 'quite right' to reject Nicola Sturgeon talks, Douglas Ross claims'
Orf with his head
I am expecting the Labour and Liberal Democrat Parties to continue their slow but steady progress.
Personally I think the Conservatives are in a precarious position right now. Boris has a habit of luck so he may pull things around but I'm increasingly of the view that it's about to go severely pear-shaped for him.
But that doesn't make the catchphrase either catchy or appropriate. It's meaningless drivel.
Of course everyone knows what they are.
I think it's fairly obvious from the absence of daily media stories that hundreds of people aren't drowning in the channel every week - probably mostly because the RNLI are quite good at their job.
Some suggestion he might be done with the red ball game entirely, and just focus.on the big bucks of T20.
If England weren't in for a trashing in the Ashes they are now and big hit to T20.squad not to have Archer, and maybe not Stokes.
And I suggest you (re)watch The Wire, or take a trip to any of your local drug dealing hotspots if you're not sure what a burner phone is.
The Channel is quite a nasty place for a swim. Even in a life jacket you won't last very long.
It’s a poorly conceived marketing message
Obviously appropriate is important. They don't crop up much in Pride and Prejudice.
I quite like it as a tagline, but the whole plank of Labour's strategy hasn't gone great.
What is quite strange with this ISPOS-MORI poll, to me anyway, is that 39% "Dont Know" about Sir Keir, whereas the last two polls by them had 23% and 27% saying so - The more people see him the more they don't know? Is that usual?
Is anyone else following the loony Safr and his merry bad of rocket scientists?
They fitted 27 engines to the orbital booster the other day - in a few hours. 22 minutes per engine. Then rolled to the pad.....
https://www.techtelegraph.co.uk/what-is-a-burner-phone-and-when-should-you-use-one/
Here is the Daily Mail from a few weeks ago. The phrase is put in inverted commas. "Burner phone"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9596557/Drug-users-ordered-phone-stunned-police-texting-want-help-you.html
If the Daily Mail has to put a phrase in inverted commas because it will strike readers as odd and not immediately understandable, then it is safe to say it has not entered the common lexicon. So yeah, you aren't plugged into The Culture or you would sense this
I’m willing to bet that people don’t raise this on the doorsteps at the next election
Edit: and the claim that the government is acting like a criminal gang won’t gain traction because it is implausible to most voters
There are always blurred lines around the boundaries of definition. But DougSeal is just being a wind-up. Europe is clearly a defined area and in many ways a lot more defined than some others in the world e.g. Southeast Asia.
'Africa' too has all manner of issues when it comes to lumping together disparate peoples and with a bloody great desert that marks a very clear cultural, ethnic and climatic difference between the 'top' 1/4 and the 3/4's 'below'.
Then there's Professor Ali Mazrui who famously argued that the Arabian peninsular should be considered African, whilst some others think Egypt is Middle-eastern and not part of Africa etc. etc.
Fact is that most sub-Saharan Africans consider themselves African and most Europeans consider themselves European.
Not the Brexit Brits, obvs.
As to effective messaging - who knows. It does have a hint of preaching to the fan club, though.
It’s too complicated and makes too many assumptions about underlying knowledge to be effective advertising
Then the Islamic conquest of what remained of the Byzantine Empire in 1453 (in addition to the long since gone North African provinces of Rome) made the Med a cultural border rather than a centre. That, coupled with the colonisation of the Americas made it necessary for us to come up with a geographical label that positively differentiated this Eurasian penninsular from the rest of the world.
Thus the concept of Europe took greater hold from the start of the Early Modern period whereas previously "Christendom" was more used.
Obviously isnt true and danger of media headlines using well known companies in their headlines, which twist the report into minimum wage failures. Obviously nobody on twitter actually reads the accompanying copy for the context.
For some it means a non-smart phone that is simply cheap and can be thrown away if it "gets traced"
For others it is a phone that can be easily bought and used with a false identity
For others it is a cheap phone that must have prepaid minutes
And so on.
Therefore Charles is right, even if you have a decent grasp of what a burner phone is (one of these or similar definitions) then it is not clear what charge Labour is making against the government
"Government by burner phone". It reckon it is a line which sounded cool and hip to middle aged people in an ideas meeting, but now withers in embarrassment when it encounters the real world, like one of those deep-water fish in Lake Baikal which explode when they hit the surface
This is well targeted at young people who need to be motivated to vote Labour. The old farts who don't know what a burner is tend to be Tory voters.
Edit: Leon's reservations noted, however.
I'm shocked.
(The number of Conservative-friendly posters who've pounced on this as a bad idea does make me think it's probably a good idea that needs to be rubbished. Remember chaps- Never interrupt your enemy if they're making a mistake.)
This explains why the Uniondivvie is so turned on by it, as an elderly Scot it makes him feel part of Da Yoof, for a few sad, poignant seconds
What really does for governments is when things personally (could) effect a big proportion of the voting population e.g. dementia tax and more recently pingdemic...so many people are hopping mad about having been pinged or contacted by test and trace and having to isolate just as the nice weather came....while also hearing day in day out we are all going to hell in a handbasket with 100,000s of daily cases incoming shortly...after hearing all the talk of Freeeeeeeeeeeedom day.
https://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-58080116
https://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-57643577
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Burner phone
Did she tell you that personally Leon?