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The growing NHS waiting list is arguably the Tories’ biggest challenge – politicalbetting.com

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  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    IshmaelZ said:

    And in news which knocks everything else into a cocked hat

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57988023

    David King on r4 yesterday saying it is a certainty that calcutta will be uninhabitable by 2050. Viruses and stuff are insanely trivial in comparison to that great clunking fact.

    Great clunking prediction.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,923

    AstraZeneca may be done with vaccines. That’s sad but not surprising
    The company did the world a solid by agreeing to offer its treatment at cost price. The world snarled back in response. Will anyone do the same in future? Doubtful


    https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/business/astrazeneca-second-quarte-results-vaccine-production-b1893166.html

    Who can blame them? They did the world a massive favour and have received no plaudits. It perhaps didn't help that our government crowed about our vaccine rollout so much and made it a nationalistic willy waving contest.
    I think the UK's government response is quite measured when you compare it to the EU's.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,967

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.
    How do you feel about the argument that creating a world of regional blocs just recreates the pre-WW1 situation?
    Some kind of war between China and the West seems almost inevitable, now. Just gotta hope it’s minor wars by proxy - like the USSR v USA - not an all-out clash in the Pacific
    The Americans would give them an absolute kicking and the Chinese know it.
    Depends what kind of war it is.

    All out nuclear war means mutually assured destruction. The globe in smoking ruins. No one wins.

    So presumably you mean one step down from that - a conventional all-theatre war, across the world? I imagine the Americans would ‘win’ that, but it would not be a walkover. China has many allies, now, as the world’s biggest trader, and China also has the bigger navy.

    But that is also unlikely because both sides would be scared

    My likely scenario is as @casino posits - a serious clash in the South China Sea over Taiwan. That seems borderline probable to me, within the decade. China could easily triumph
    I meant even in a limited theatre war such as Taiwan. Depends if US has the will to defend it, though I think they probably would. China cannot pour troops over the border like they did in Korea. It would be messy, but I still think the US will win any conventional type war by a country mile.
    That is not currently the view of the US.
    The US military like a reason to ask for more "resources". I imagine they will have war gamed it many times. It is not in their interest to suggest they would give the Chinese a kicking any more than it was in their interest to boast how they would against Saddam in Gulf War 1.
    Sure, but in the localised case of the S China Sea, there's every reason to believe them.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,143
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Nope.

    The tanks in WWI were arguably not as revolutionary as better assault tactics. The typical tank attack ran out of working tanks within a few miles.

    Read some actual accounts of the tank VCs - last tank working, on its own, getting surrounded by Germans, fights as a static pillbox until they die or escape on foot.
    I accept that early tanks were rubbish. But by 1939 they were good enough for Blitzkrieg

    That’s my point. Read my comment. We invented them first - if only we’d invented them earlier we could have made them war winners by the time WW1 came along
    We might also have developed the standard tactics of tank warfare before the battlefield became a quagmire which didn't help.

    I've often wondered what would have happened if there had never been the brief period when (horse) cavalry become an ineffective tool due to the invention of the machine gun, before motorized infantry, tanks, then helicopters, became the new cavalry. WWI and even the US Civil War might have been very different affairs.
    Good point on the US Civil War. One of the bloodiest wars, per capita, ever fought? Because of machine guns, primarily.

    That was a warning to Europe what a truly modernized, mechanized war between advanced nations would look like. The great failure, perhaps, was not preparing for that and developing new tactics to avoid appalling bloodshed (eg tanks). We had 60 years to think.

    Presumably the European powers didn’t think because they were all focused on easy wars against spear throwing natives in Africa, etc. So the horror of World War One becomes, ironically, the price of rampant imperialism

    History has a strange way of slowly but surely serving justice
    Machine-guns weren't really much of a thing in the ACW. Only a very few Gatling guns were used, for instance (two figures at most).

    I bow to the superior knowledge of PB. It is always an education, this place. I lazily assumed the terrible carnage of the ACW was due, in part to machine guns. I now learn it is actually more nuanced than that (tho related)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,920
    edited July 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    And in news which knocks everything else into a cocked hat

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57988023

    David King on r4 yesterday saying it is a certainty that calcutta will be uninhabitable by 2050. Viruses and stuff are insanely trivial in comparison to that great clunking fact.

    Non-independent SAGE in new sheeps clothing....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,757
    Sean_F said:

    mwadams said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Nope.

    The tanks in WWI were arguably not as revolutionary as better assault tactics. The typical tank attack ran out of working tanks within a few miles.

    Read some actual accounts of the tank VCs - last tank working, on its own, getting surrounded by Germans, fights as a static pillbox until they die or escape on foot.
    I accept that early tanks were rubbish. But by 1939 they were good enough for Blitzkrieg

    That’s my point. Read my comment. We invented them first - if only we’d invented them earlier we could have made them war winners by the time WW1 came along
    We might also have developed the standard tactics of tank warfare before the battlefield became a quagmire which didn't help.

    I've often wondered what would have happened if there had never been the brief period when (horse) cavalry become an ineffective tool due to the invention of the machine gun, before motorized infantry, tanks, then helicopters, became the new cavalry. WWI and even the US Civil War might have been very different affairs.
    Good point on the US Civil War. One of the bloodiest wars, per capita, ever fought? Because of machine guns, primarily.

    That was a warning to Europe what a truly modernized, mechanized war between advanced nations would look like. The great failure, perhaps, was not preparing for that and developing new tactics to avoid appalling bloodshed (eg tanks). We had 60 years to think.

    Presumably the European powers didn’t think because they were all focused on easy wars against spear throwing natives in Africa, etc. So the horror of World War One becomes, ironically, the price of rampant imperialism

    History has a strange way of slowly but surely serving justice
    Defensive massed rifle fire was even more deadly.

    The British learned this the hard way from the Boer War. That's why we escaped with far fewer casualties than the French or Germans.

    The European powers learned the wrong lessons from the Boer war and the Russo Japanese war. They realised that rifle fire was deadly, but took the view that attacks that were pressed home with sufficient vigour, and sufficient willingness to take casualties, would eventually prevail.
    Yes - I guess we always use "invention of the machine gun" as a shorthand for a much more comprehensive set of developments in the ability to fire a large number of bullets, continuously, by a comparatively smaller number of defenders, and the lack of recognition of the tactical impact of those developments.
    Every Boer was at least a competent marksman, and their best snipers were deadly. They had a habit of shooting down British officers and couriers at 1,000 yards, something our own commanders thought terribly unsporting. A lot of military careers were destroyed in the early months of that war.
    Also other key personnel such as artillerymen. Hence the shields being put on field artillery such as (slightly in advance) the M1897 French 75mm.

    Of course, the 'concentration camp' (more of a disease-ridden compulsory deportee camp than the later KZ-Lager) was also terribly unsporting.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.
    How do you feel about the argument that creating a world of regional blocs just recreates the pre-WW1 situation?
    Some kind of war between China and the West seems almost inevitable, now. Just gotta hope it’s minor wars by proxy - like the USSR v USA - not an all-out clash in the Pacific
    The Americans would give them an absolute kicking and the Chinese know it.
    Depends what kind of war it is.

    All out nuclear war means mutually assured destruction. The globe in smoking ruins. No one wins.

    So presumably you mean one step down from that - a conventional all-theatre war, across the world? I imagine the Americans would ‘win’ that, but it would not be a walkover. China has many allies, now, as the world’s biggest trader, and China also has the bigger navy.

    But that is also unlikely because both sides would be scared

    My likely scenario is as @casino posits - a serious clash in the South China Sea over Taiwan. That seems borderline probable to me, within the decade. China could easily triumph
    I meant even in a limited theatre war such as Taiwan. Depends if US has the will to defend it, though I think they probably would. China cannot pour troops over the border like they did in Korea. It would be messy, but I still think the US will win any conventional type war by a country mile.
    That is not currently the view of the US.
    The US military like a reason to ask for more "resources". I imagine they will have war gamed it many times. It is not in their interest to suggest they would give the Chinese a kicking any more than it was in their interest to boast how they would against Saddam in Gulf War 1.
    China is not Saddam in Gulf War 1

    I think your view of easy American superiority is about 10-15 years out of date
    Of course China is not Saddam. It might of course depend on surprise. If China can invade swiftly (which is highly unlikely) then ejecting them will be impossible. US military capability is still years and years ahead of China in pretty much every regard. Their main advantage over the US is, like Saddam, numbers. This won't help them much for a seaborn invasion. They know it, and for all the sabre rattling they won't do it, because it will be militarily difficult and economically damaging.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,117
    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Welsh covid cases up again from previous friday...

    Please make it stop
    The Drake is going to keep the welsh locked up forever at this rate !
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,920
    Cricky lad in the 10km running set off like he desperately needs the toilet.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,112
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    mwadams said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Nope.

    The tanks in WWI were arguably not as revolutionary as better assault tactics. The typical tank attack ran out of working tanks within a few miles.

    Read some actual accounts of the tank VCs - last tank working, on its own, getting surrounded by Germans, fights as a static pillbox until they die or escape on foot.
    I accept that early tanks were rubbish. But by 1939 they were good enough for Blitzkrieg

    That’s my point. Read my comment. We invented them first - if only we’d invented them earlier we could have made them war winners by the time WW1 came along
    We might also have developed the standard tactics of tank warfare before the battlefield became a quagmire which didn't help.

    I've often wondered what would have happened if there had never been the brief period when (horse) cavalry become an ineffective tool due to the invention of the machine gun, before motorized infantry, tanks, then helicopters, became the new cavalry. WWI and even the US Civil War might have been very different affairs.
    Good point on the US Civil War. One of the bloodiest wars, per capita, ever fought? Because of machine guns, primarily.

    That was a warning to Europe what a truly modernized, mechanized war between advanced nations would look like. The great failure, perhaps, was not preparing for that and developing new tactics to avoid appalling bloodshed (eg tanks). We had 60 years to think.

    Presumably the European powers didn’t think because they were all focused on easy wars against spear throwing natives in Africa, etc. So the horror of World War One becomes, ironically, the price of rampant imperialism

    History has a strange way of slowly but surely serving justice
    Defensive massed rifle fire was even more deadly.

    The British learned this the hard way from the Boer War. That's why we escaped with far fewer casualties than the French or Germans.

    The European powers learned the wrong lessons from the Boer war and the Russo Japanese war. They realised that rifle fire was deadly, but took the view that attacks that were pressed home with sufficient vigour, and sufficient willingness to take casualties, would eventually prevail.
    Yes - I guess we always use "invention of the machine gun" as a shorthand for a much more comprehensive set of developments in the ability to fire a large number of bullets, continuously, by a comparatively smaller number of defenders, and the lack of recognition of the tactical impact of those developments.
    Every Boer was at least a competent marksman, and their best snipers were deadly. They had a habit of shooting down British officers and couriers at 1,000 yards, something our own commanders thought terribly unsporting. A lot of military careers were destroyed in the early months of that war.
    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5
    There was a rather interesting debate in the House of Lord, pre WWI, about the adoption of the Lee-Enfield No.4 - in light of the Boer War. The classic debate between those who want every rifle to be a 2,000 yard target rifle and those who want something reliable.

    Reading the minutes of the debate, it was a very well informed one, with a great deal of technical discussion on both sides.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    mwadams said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Nope.

    The tanks in WWI were arguably not as revolutionary as better assault tactics. The typical tank attack ran out of working tanks within a few miles.

    Read some actual accounts of the tank VCs - last tank working, on its own, getting surrounded by Germans, fights as a static pillbox until they die or escape on foot.
    I accept that early tanks were rubbish. But by 1939 they were good enough for Blitzkrieg

    That’s my point. Read my comment. We invented them first - if only we’d invented them earlier we could have made them war winners by the time WW1 came along
    We might also have developed the standard tactics of tank warfare before the battlefield became a quagmire which didn't help.

    I've often wondered what would have happened if there had never been the brief period when (horse) cavalry become an ineffective tool due to the invention of the machine gun, before motorized infantry, tanks, then helicopters, became the new cavalry. WWI and even the US Civil War might have been very different affairs.
    Good point on the US Civil War. One of the bloodiest wars, per capita, ever fought? Because of machine guns, primarily.

    That was a warning to Europe what a truly modernized, mechanized war between advanced nations would look like. The great failure, perhaps, was not preparing for that and developing new tactics to avoid appalling bloodshed (eg tanks). We had 60 years to think.

    Presumably the European powers didn’t think because they were all focused on easy wars against spear throwing natives in Africa, etc. So the horror of World War One becomes, ironically, the price of rampant imperialism

    History has a strange way of slowly but surely serving justice
    Defensive massed rifle fire was even more deadly.

    The British learned this the hard way from the Boer War. That's why we escaped with far fewer casualties than the French or Germans.

    The European powers learned the wrong lessons from the Boer war and the Russo Japanese war. They realised that rifle fire was deadly, but took the view that attacks that were pressed home with sufficient vigour, and sufficient willingness to take casualties, would eventually prevail.
    Yes - I guess we always use "invention of the machine gun" as a shorthand for a much more comprehensive set of developments in the ability to fire a large number of bullets, continuously, by a comparatively smaller number of defenders, and the lack of recognition of the tactical impact of those developments.
    Every Boer was at least a competent marksman, and their best snipers were deadly. They had a habit of shooting down British officers and couriers at 1,000 yards, something our own commanders thought terribly unsporting. A lot of military careers were destroyed in the early months of that war.
    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5
    The Life and Death of Colonel Blimp
    Apocalypse Now
    Paths of Glory
    All Quite on the Western Front
    The Cruel Sea
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,920
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Welsh covid cases up again from previous friday...

    Please make it stop
    The Drake is going to keep the welsh locked up forever at this rate !
    Get down to Tescos and stock up on non- essential oven gloves.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    Interesting by-election results from yesterday. Very good for LDs (in part), mixed for Tories but good overall? Poor for Labour...

    Labours performance in Local By Elections has been terrible recently. Its time for a SKS is great thread.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Something you don't want to see from your window seat:

    Normally if you see reversers deploying in the air, that’d be a BIG problem. But for the C-17s of @99Sq it’s just routine. 30,000ft to 5,000 ft in 2 minutes. That’s falling with style. Great video 99…thanks for sharing.

    https://twitter.com/scottiebateman/status/1421070728338853892?s=20
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,302
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    mwadams said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Nope.

    The tanks in WWI were arguably not as revolutionary as better assault tactics. The typical tank attack ran out of working tanks within a few miles.

    Read some actual accounts of the tank VCs - last tank working, on its own, getting surrounded by Germans, fights as a static pillbox until they die or escape on foot.
    I accept that early tanks were rubbish. But by 1939 they were good enough for Blitzkrieg

    That’s my point. Read my comment. We invented them first - if only we’d invented them earlier we could have made them war winners by the time WW1 came along
    We might also have developed the standard tactics of tank warfare before the battlefield became a quagmire which didn't help.

    I've often wondered what would have happened if there had never been the brief period when (horse) cavalry become an ineffective tool due to the invention of the machine gun, before motorized infantry, tanks, then helicopters, became the new cavalry. WWI and even the US Civil War might have been very different affairs.
    Good point on the US Civil War. One of the bloodiest wars, per capita, ever fought? Because of machine guns, primarily.

    That was a warning to Europe what a truly modernized, mechanized war between advanced nations would look like. The great failure, perhaps, was not preparing for that and developing new tactics to avoid appalling bloodshed (eg tanks). We had 60 years to think.

    Presumably the European powers didn’t think because they were all focused on easy wars against spear throwing natives in Africa, etc. So the horror of World War One becomes, ironically, the price of rampant imperialism

    History has a strange way of slowly but surely serving justice
    Defensive massed rifle fire was even more deadly.

    The British learned this the hard way from the Boer War. That's why we escaped with far fewer casualties than the French or Germans.

    The European powers learned the wrong lessons from the Boer war and the Russo Japanese war. They realised that rifle fire was deadly, but took the view that attacks that were pressed home with sufficient vigour, and sufficient willingness to take casualties, would eventually prevail.
    Yes - I guess we always use "invention of the machine gun" as a shorthand for a much more comprehensive set of developments in the ability to fire a large number of bullets, continuously, by a comparatively smaller number of defenders, and the lack of recognition of the tactical impact of those developments.
    Every Boer was at least a competent marksman, and their best snipers were deadly. They had a habit of shooting down British officers and couriers at 1,000 yards, something our own commanders thought terribly unsporting. A lot of military careers were destroyed in the early months of that war.
    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5
    We weren't really interested in marksmanship until after we'd encountered the Boers.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,297
    edited July 2021
    This morning’s conversation does nothing to dispel my assumption that PB Tories are a bunch of dyspeptic old codgers, glaring at the day’s news through a monocle and half a glass of port.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,302

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    mwadams said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Nope.

    The tanks in WWI were arguably not as revolutionary as better assault tactics. The typical tank attack ran out of working tanks within a few miles.

    Read some actual accounts of the tank VCs - last tank working, on its own, getting surrounded by Germans, fights as a static pillbox until they die or escape on foot.
    I accept that early tanks were rubbish. But by 1939 they were good enough for Blitzkrieg

    That’s my point. Read my comment. We invented them first - if only we’d invented them earlier we could have made them war winners by the time WW1 came along
    We might also have developed the standard tactics of tank warfare before the battlefield became a quagmire which didn't help.

    I've often wondered what would have happened if there had never been the brief period when (horse) cavalry become an ineffective tool due to the invention of the machine gun, before motorized infantry, tanks, then helicopters, became the new cavalry. WWI and even the US Civil War might have been very different affairs.
    Good point on the US Civil War. One of the bloodiest wars, per capita, ever fought? Because of machine guns, primarily.

    That was a warning to Europe what a truly modernized, mechanized war between advanced nations would look like. The great failure, perhaps, was not preparing for that and developing new tactics to avoid appalling bloodshed (eg tanks). We had 60 years to think.

    Presumably the European powers didn’t think because they were all focused on easy wars against spear throwing natives in Africa, etc. So the horror of World War One becomes, ironically, the price of rampant imperialism

    History has a strange way of slowly but surely serving justice
    Defensive massed rifle fire was even more deadly.

    The British learned this the hard way from the Boer War. That's why we escaped with far fewer casualties than the French or Germans.

    The European powers learned the wrong lessons from the Boer war and the Russo Japanese war. They realised that rifle fire was deadly, but took the view that attacks that were pressed home with sufficient vigour, and sufficient willingness to take casualties, would eventually prevail.
    Yes - I guess we always use "invention of the machine gun" as a shorthand for a much more comprehensive set of developments in the ability to fire a large number of bullets, continuously, by a comparatively smaller number of defenders, and the lack of recognition of the tactical impact of those developments.
    Every Boer was at least a competent marksman, and their best snipers were deadly. They had a habit of shooting down British officers and couriers at 1,000 yards, something our own commanders thought terribly unsporting. A lot of military careers were destroyed in the early months of that war.
    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5
    The Life and Death of Colonel Blimp
    Apocalypse Now
    Paths of Glory
    All Quite on the Western Front
    The Cruel Sea
    I'd put Cross of Iron up there.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    RobD said:

    AstraZeneca may be done with vaccines. That’s sad but not surprising
    The company did the world a solid by agreeing to offer its treatment at cost price. The world snarled back in response. Will anyone do the same in future? Doubtful


    https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/business/astrazeneca-second-quarte-results-vaccine-production-b1893166.html

    Who can blame them? They did the world a massive favour and have received no plaudits. It perhaps didn't help that our government crowed about our vaccine rollout so much and made it a nationalistic willy waving contest.
    I think the UK's government response is quite measured when you compare it to the EU's.
    I agree, but only by comparison. AZ have been treated shabbily by politicians. As their primary responsibility is to their shareholders (that is most of our pension funds before any lefties start getting uppity about pharma companies), then they will want to steer well clear of anything like this again.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    edited July 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    And in news which knocks everything else into a cocked hat

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57988023

    David King on r4 yesterday saying it is a certainty that calcutta will be uninhabitable by 2050. Viruses and stuff are insanely trivial in comparison to that great clunking fact.

    While I agree in general, PBers know one big thing: there aren't many certainties about the future, and the more distant the fewer non general certainties there are. In truth no-one knows whether Calcutta will be uninhabitable in 2050 or any other year.

    What I am taking away from recent BBC and other coverage is this: for many years now the rhetoric has been that if only we try hard the mega problem can be averted by limiting climate change to X.

    This has long been obviously untrue since CO2 has gone into the air, continues to go in at record speed and once there it stays and can only be added to, even if more slowly.

    Short of a totally novel wheeze we are stuck, if the science is correct.

    What is happening with BBC and friends is that the rhetoric is moving from: this is an avertable global disaster to: how do we manage this global disaster?

    Sadly I think this is more realistic. and has been for years.

    But no-one is going to actually believe that the people who matter actually believe all this until (a) their life styles match what they say

    and

    (b) they actually start, for example, closing down Calcutta and moving the population.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,757
    edited July 2021
    Leon said:

    PB really is impressive on military history, tactics, weaponry. It’s almost like we’re a bunch of over-educated middle aged men who love reading too much military history.

    And naval. (Just to be clear.)

    This morning’s conversation does nothing to dispel my assumption that PB Tories are a bunch of dyspeptic old codgers, glaring at the day’s news through a monocle and half a glass of port.

    Or rum/pink gin.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,297
    algarkirk said:

    Oppositions generally have not done as well as might be expected so far in GB, Scotland, Wales and England. Why?

    I think we're still in the active pandemic phase where the public generally accepts that the government is doing what can reasonably be expected and they don't wish to add political turmoil to the list of the country's issues.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,117

    Cricky lad in the 10km running set off like he desperately needs the toilet.

    I did 10,000 metres tuesday and thursday evening. Tuesday was a quick(ish) one for me and took ~ 53 and a half minutes, thursday just over an hour.
    Really amazing how fast these boys go.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,923

    RobD said:

    AstraZeneca may be done with vaccines. That’s sad but not surprising
    The company did the world a solid by agreeing to offer its treatment at cost price. The world snarled back in response. Will anyone do the same in future? Doubtful


    https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/business/astrazeneca-second-quarte-results-vaccine-production-b1893166.html

    Who can blame them? They did the world a massive favour and have received no plaudits. It perhaps didn't help that our government crowed about our vaccine rollout so much and made it a nationalistic willy waving contest.
    I think the UK's government response is quite measured when you compare it to the EU's.
    I agree, but only by comparison. AZ have been treated shabbily by politicians. As their primary responsibility is to their shareholders (that is most of our pension funds before any lefties start getting uppity about pharma companies), then they will want to steer well clear of anything like this again.
    Not sure they've been treated badly at all by the UK government. Approaching criminal behaviour from some in the EU though.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,525
    IshmaelZ said:

    And in news which knocks everything else into a cocked hat

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57988023

    David King on r4 yesterday saying it is a certainty that calcutta will be uninhabitable by 2050. Viruses and stuff are insanely trivial in comparison to that great clunking fact.

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-and-ireland-among-five-nations-most-likely-to-survive-a-collapse-of-global-civilisation-study-suggests-12366136

    The UK and Ireland are among five nations most likely to survive a collapse of global civilisation, researchers have said.

    A study has suggested a combination of ecological destruction, limited resources and population growth could trigger a worldwide breakdown "within a few decades", with climate change making things worse.

    Five countries were identified as best placed to maintain civilisation within their own borders, with New Zealand topping the list and followed by Iceland, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Australia.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    And in news which knocks everything else into a cocked hat

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57988023

    David King on r4 yesterday saying it is a certainty that calcutta will be uninhabitable by 2050. Viruses and stuff are insanely trivial in comparison to that great clunking fact.

    Non-independent SAGE in new sheeps clothing....
    I wouldn't have thought you could edit that post to make it even stupider than the original. Bravo!

    Calcutta is fucked unless you think that the theory that ice turns to water when you warm it up enough is something cooked up by an unaccountable quango of talking heads, which you probably do.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,112
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    On the flip side, perfectly serviceable steam tugboats were up and running by 1800. If someone had told Napoleon about them he'd have invaded in a flat calm, et nous parlerions francais.
    I'm unsure about how useful early tugboats would have been, but I'm amazed that Napoleon apparently made very little use of balloons. Revolutionary France had an observation balloon corps that helped in the victory at the Battle of Fleurus in 1794, but Napoleon never really used them.

    https://www.quora.com/Why-didnt-Napoleon-use-military-balloons
    "On her maiden trip, the Charlotte Dundas, with her 10 horsepower steam engine, carried 20 passengers and pulled 2 loaded barges 19 ½ miles along the Forth & Clyde Canal near Glasgow, Scotland. This 6-hour trip was the only journey she took. Canal proprietors, fearing she would erode the canal banks with the paddlewheel, banned paddle wheelers on the canal. So, the Charlotte Dundas was left sitting where she stopped."

    https://www.harlowmarine.com/a-brief-look-at-tugboat-history/

    That's 1802. Sounds adequate to tow barges full of infantry across the channel in a calm.
    Even in a dead calm, there are currents. 10 horsepower is not a lot. Particularly when you consider the efficiency of paddlewheels - you'd be lucky to get 1/2 the power into the water.
    Not currents you need to worry about. There's tides, sure, but in a channel crossing you don't worry about fighting those, you just point at where you want to go and the effects cancel out over time. I'm not saying the logistics are straightforward, but marching on Moscow isn't cheap either.

    In reality one would hope that if Napoleon started building bulk steam tugs the admiralty would have seen the problem and started building its own.
    You can end up spending the whole day fighting the currents. Hence some of the problems with Sealion.

    Historically, Napoleon was looking at using rowing to help manoeuvre against wind and tide. The British defensive response also included rowed gun boats. In both cases the craft had sails as well.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,297

    IshmaelZ said:

    And in news which knocks everything else into a cocked hat

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57988023

    David King on r4 yesterday saying it is a certainty that calcutta will be uninhabitable by 2050. Viruses and stuff are insanely trivial in comparison to that great clunking fact.

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-and-ireland-among-five-nations-most-likely-to-survive-a-collapse-of-global-civilisation-study-suggests-12366136

    The UK and Ireland are among five nations most likely to survive a collapse of global civilisation, researchers have said.

    A study has suggested a combination of ecological destruction, limited resources and population growth could trigger a worldwide breakdown "within a few decades", with climate change making things worse.

    Five countries were identified as best placed to maintain civilisation within their own borders, with New Zealand topping the list and followed by Iceland, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Australia.
    I have visa free entry to 4 out of 5.

    🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,143

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.
    How do you feel about the argument that creating a world of regional blocs just recreates the pre-WW1 situation?
    Some kind of war between China and the West seems almost inevitable, now. Just gotta hope it’s minor wars by proxy - like the USSR v USA - not an all-out clash in the Pacific
    The Americans would give them an absolute kicking and the Chinese know it.
    Depends what kind of war it is.

    All out nuclear war means mutually assured destruction. The globe in smoking ruins. No one wins.

    So presumably you mean one step down from that - a conventional all-theatre war, across the world? I imagine the Americans would ‘win’ that, but it would not be a walkover. China has many allies, now, as the world’s biggest trader, and China also has the bigger navy.

    But that is also unlikely because both sides would be scared

    My likely scenario is as @casino posits - a serious clash in the South China Sea over Taiwan. That seems borderline probable to me, within the decade. China could easily triumph
    I meant even in a limited theatre war such as Taiwan. Depends if US has the will to defend it, though I think they probably would. China cannot pour troops over the border like they did in Korea. It would be messy, but I still think the US will win any conventional type war by a country mile.
    That is not currently the view of the US.
    The US military like a reason to ask for more "resources". I imagine they will have war gamed it many times. It is not in their interest to suggest they would give the Chinese a kicking any more than it was in their interest to boast how they would against Saddam in Gulf War 1.
    China is not Saddam in Gulf War 1

    I think your view of easy American superiority is about 10-15 years out of date
    Of course China is not Saddam. It might of course depend on surprise. If China can invade swiftly (which is highly unlikely) then ejecting them will be impossible. US military capability is still years and years ahead of China in pretty much every regard. Their main advantage over the US is, like Saddam, numbers. This won't help them much for a seaborn invasion. They know it, and for all the sabre rattling they won't do it, because it will be militarily difficult and economically damaging.
    China’s attack - if it happens - would be far more sophisticated than ‘D Day Redux’

    One of the first things they might do is take down the internet in Taiwan. If they succeed in that, they win in a day. Game over

    Bioweapons? They’d need to try a few test bugs, first...

    Meanwhile: espionage, trade wars, encirclement, cyber warfare, all to weaken Taiwan’s will to resist until China can take over without a single soldier landing on a beach

    China has, after all, just done exactly that in Hong Kong, with great success
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,920
    edited July 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    And in news which knocks everything else into a cocked hat

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57988023

    David King on r4 yesterday saying it is a certainty that calcutta will be uninhabitable by 2050. Viruses and stuff are insanely trivial in comparison to that great clunking fact.

    Non-independent SAGE in new sheeps clothing....
    I wouldn't have thought you could edit that post to make it even stupider than the original. Bravo!

    Calcutta is fucked unless you think that the theory that ice turns to water when you warm it up enough is something cooked up by an unaccountable quango of talking heads, which you probably do.
    What are you wittering about? I was stating a fact it is Independent SAGE new group.

    No idea where you got the idea I was a climate change denier, in 60k posts, I have never posted anything of the sort.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    mwadams said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Nope.

    The tanks in WWI were arguably not as revolutionary as better assault tactics. The typical tank attack ran out of working tanks within a few miles.

    Read some actual accounts of the tank VCs - last tank working, on its own, getting surrounded by Germans, fights as a static pillbox until they die or escape on foot.
    I accept that early tanks were rubbish. But by 1939 they were good enough for Blitzkrieg

    That’s my point. Read my comment. We invented them first - if only we’d invented them earlier we could have made them war winners by the time WW1 came along
    We might also have developed the standard tactics of tank warfare before the battlefield became a quagmire which didn't help.

    I've often wondered what would have happened if there had never been the brief period when (horse) cavalry become an ineffective tool due to the invention of the machine gun, before motorized infantry, tanks, then helicopters, became the new cavalry. WWI and even the US Civil War might have been very different affairs.
    Good point on the US Civil War. One of the bloodiest wars, per capita, ever fought? Because of machine guns, primarily.

    That was a warning to Europe what a truly modernized, mechanized war between advanced nations would look like. The great failure, perhaps, was not preparing for that and developing new tactics to avoid appalling bloodshed (eg tanks). We had 60 years to think.

    Presumably the European powers didn’t think because they were all focused on easy wars against spear throwing natives in Africa, etc. So the horror of World War One becomes, ironically, the price of rampant imperialism

    History has a strange way of slowly but surely serving justice
    Defensive massed rifle fire was even more deadly.

    The British learned this the hard way from the Boer War. That's why we escaped with far fewer casualties than the French or Germans.

    The European powers learned the wrong lessons from the Boer war and the Russo Japanese war. They realised that rifle fire was deadly, but took the view that attacks that were pressed home with sufficient vigour, and sufficient willingness to take casualties, would eventually prevail.
    Yes - I guess we always use "invention of the machine gun" as a shorthand for a much more comprehensive set of developments in the ability to fire a large number of bullets, continuously, by a comparatively smaller number of defenders, and the lack of recognition of the tactical impact of those developments.
    Every Boer was at least a competent marksman, and their best snipers were deadly. They had a habit of shooting down British officers and couriers at 1,000 yards, something our own commanders thought terribly unsporting. A lot of military careers were destroyed in the early months of that war.
    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5
    We weren't really interested in marksmanship until after we'd encountered the Boers.
    Sorry to correct you, but not entirely true. It certainly increased the importance of what we now call snipers, but riflemen were used to great effect in the Napoleonic wars against the French who were still much wedded to muskets. The principle challenge then was reloading which was largely overcome by breach loading actions.

    There we are, that is my bit of monocle wearing for the day!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,112
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    PB really is impressive on military history, tactics, weaponry. It’s almost like we’re a bunch of over-educated middle aged men who love reading too much military history.

    And naval. (Just to be clear.)

    This morning’s conversation does nothing to dispel my assumption that PB Tories are a bunch of dyspeptic old codgers, glaring at the day’s news through a monocle and half a glass of port.

    Or rum/pink gin.
    Now, now, many of us are modernisers. Who think that the invention of the quick firing gun has rendered the Admiral class untenable.

    https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Departmental_Ditties_and_Ballads_and_Barrack-Room_Ballads/The_Ballad_of_the_"Clampherdown"
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited July 2021

    This morning’s conversation does nothing to dispel my assumption that PB Tories are a bunch of dyspeptic old codgers, glaring at the day’s news through a monocle and half a glass of port.

    Half a bottle of port, huge belly, no hair, not seen their willy (except in a mirror) since the late 90s nor used it to give pleasure to a lady since 2013. Vaguely purplish complexion and imminent coronary.

    That’s Sean dealt with. Sure the others not much better. And then they moan about the youngsters not winning them enough medals…
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,508

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    PB really is impressive on military history, tactics, weaponry. It’s almost like we’re a bunch of over-educated middle aged men who love reading too much military history.

    And naval. (Just to be clear.)

    This morning’s conversation does nothing to dispel my assumption that PB Tories are a bunch of dyspeptic old codgers, glaring at the day’s news through a monocle and half a glass of port.

    Or rum/pink gin.
    Now, now, many of us are modernisers. Who think that the invention of the quick firing gun has rendered the Admiral class untenable.

    https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Departmental_Ditties_and_Ballads_and_Barrack-Room_Ballads/The_Ballad_of_the_"Clampherdown"
    I wonder how many of us on here watch Drachinifel's output?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.
    How do you feel about the argument that creating a world of regional blocs just recreates the pre-WW1 situation?
    Some kind of war between China and the West seems almost inevitable, now. Just gotta hope it’s minor wars by proxy - like the USSR v USA - not an all-out clash in the Pacific
    The Americans would give them an absolute kicking and the Chinese know it.
    Depends what kind of war it is.

    All out nuclear war means mutually assured destruction. The globe in smoking ruins. No one wins.

    So presumably you mean one step down from that - a conventional all-theatre war, across the world? I imagine the Americans would ‘win’ that, but it would not be a walkover. China has many allies, now, as the world’s biggest trader, and China also has the bigger navy.

    But that is also unlikely because both sides would be scared

    My likely scenario is as @casino posits - a serious clash in the South China Sea over Taiwan. That seems borderline probable to me, within the decade. China could easily triumph
    I meant even in a limited theatre war such as Taiwan. Depends if US has the will to defend it, though I think they probably would. China cannot pour troops over the border like they did in Korea. It would be messy, but I still think the US will win any conventional type war by a country mile.
    There is no way the US is going to get in a shooting war with a nuclear superpower over Taiwan. If they really were prepared to defend it they would have troops based there now. There are countries the US would fight China for, Australia and Japan which both have permanent US military presences, but Taiwan isn't one of them.

    Taiwan will get the full Hong Kong treatment and be assimilated by 2035-40.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,357
    edited July 2021

    Must be silly season, PB Tories are talking about the First World War.

    Regarding the header, the Tories face some interesting headwinds.

    1. NHS waiting lists
    2. Knife crime and underfunded justice system
    3. Austerity 3.0 (and the battle between Rishi and Johnson)
    4. Social care, and how to fund it
    5. Ongoing economic damage from Brexit
    6. Faragiste attacks on their right flank
    7. Decarbonisation, and how to pay for it
    8. Northern Ireland
    9. Scottish independence
    10. The kid’s education backlog post pandemic
    11. Labour shortages
    12. Boris’s tendency to fuck up generally

    On the other hand, they have Keir’s general uselessness on their side and the war on woke of course.

    So let us analyse and/or attribute blame here.

    1. The Pandemic.
    2. Khan.
    3. Gordon Brown/Alistair Darling.
    4. The Blair Government.
    5. The EU.
    6. Boris and Priti have outflanked Farage on the right.
    7. China and Russia.
    8. The weakness of the GFA and EU intransigence.
    9. Only a future Labour Prime Minister will sell out the Union.
    10. Labour Mayors and local authorities. Education is so New Labour anyway.
    11. The EU.
    12. Johnson is a lucky General.

    So Johnson walks away unscathed.

    You are right about Starmer too, and he can't do Edinburgh quality comedy with an umbrella like Johnson can either.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    IshmaelZ said:

    And in news which knocks everything else into a cocked hat

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57988023

    David King on r4 yesterday saying it is a certainty that calcutta will be uninhabitable by 2050. Viruses and stuff are insanely trivial in comparison to that great clunking fact.

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-and-ireland-among-five-nations-most-likely-to-survive-a-collapse-of-global-civilisation-study-suggests-12366136

    The UK and Ireland are among five nations most likely to survive a collapse of global civilisation, researchers have said.

    A study has suggested a combination of ecological destruction, limited resources and population growth could trigger a worldwide breakdown "within a few decades", with climate change making things worse.

    Five countries were identified as best placed to maintain civilisation within their own borders, with New Zealand topping the list and followed by Iceland, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Australia.
    I have visa free entry to 4 out of 5.

    🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳

    I am sure our border force is perfectly capable of defending our coasts from small boats carrying 500,000,000 million civilization-free Europeans to our island refuge.

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.
    How do you feel about the argument that creating a world of regional blocs just recreates the pre-WW1 situation?
    Some kind of war between China and the West seems almost inevitable, now. Just gotta hope it’s minor wars by proxy - like the USSR v USA - not an all-out clash in the Pacific
    The Americans would give them an absolute kicking and the Chinese know it.
    Depends what kind of war it is.

    All out nuclear war means mutually assured destruction. The globe in smoking ruins. No one wins.

    So presumably you mean one step down from that - a conventional all-theatre war, across the world? I imagine the Americans would ‘win’ that, but it would not be a walkover. China has many allies, now, as the world’s biggest trader, and China also has the bigger navy.

    But that is also unlikely because both sides would be scared

    My likely scenario is as @casino posits - a serious clash in the South China Sea over Taiwan. That seems borderline probable to me, within the decade. China could easily triumph
    I meant even in a limited theatre war such as Taiwan. Depends if US has the will to defend it, though I think they probably would. China cannot pour troops over the border like they did in Korea. It would be messy, but I still think the US will win any conventional type war by a country mile.
    That is not currently the view of the US.
    The US military like a reason to ask for more "resources". I imagine they will have war gamed it many times. It is not in their interest to suggest they would give the Chinese a kicking any more than it was in their interest to boast how they would against Saddam in Gulf War 1.
    China is not Saddam in Gulf War 1

    I think your view of easy American superiority is about 10-15 years out of date
    Of course China is not Saddam. It might of course depend on surprise. If China can invade swiftly (which is highly unlikely) then ejecting them will be impossible. US military capability is still years and years ahead of China in pretty much every regard. Their main advantage over the US is, like Saddam, numbers. This won't help them much for a seaborn invasion. They know it, and for all the sabre rattling they won't do it, because it will be militarily difficult and economically damaging.
    China’s attack - if it happens - would be far more sophisticated than ‘D Day Redux’

    One of the first things they might do is take down the internet in Taiwan. If they succeed in that, they win in a day. Game over

    Bioweapons? They’d need to try a few test bugs, first...

    Meanwhile: espionage, trade wars, encirclement, cyber warfare, all to weaken Taiwan’s will to resist until China can take over without a single soldier landing on a beach

    China has, after all, just done exactly that in Hong Kong, with great success
    Indeed, but Hong Kong is a lot smaller and closer to their mainland than Taiwan, and HK had it's governmental apparatus taken over by the Chinese. Busting a country's internet is also, I believe quite a lot harder than one thinks. Unless you allow the hostile country to build the infrastructure. Huawei? Perhaps?

    I am speculating of course. I hope I am right and you are wrong. A Sino-US conflict is not in anyone's interest
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,238
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    mwadams said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Nope.

    The tanks in WWI were arguably not as revolutionary as better assault tactics. The typical tank attack ran out of working tanks within a few miles.

    Read some actual accounts of the tank VCs - last tank working, on its own, getting surrounded by Germans, fights as a static pillbox until they die or escape on foot.
    I accept that early tanks were rubbish. But by 1939 they were good enough for Blitzkrieg

    That’s my point. Read my comment. We invented them first - if only we’d invented them earlier we could have made them war winners by the time WW1 came along
    We might also have developed the standard tactics of tank warfare before the battlefield became a quagmire which didn't help.

    I've often wondered what would have happened if there had never been the brief period when (horse) cavalry become an ineffective tool due to the invention of the machine gun, before motorized infantry, tanks, then helicopters, became the new cavalry. WWI and even the US Civil War might have been very different affairs.
    Good point on the US Civil War. One of the bloodiest wars, per capita, ever fought? Because of machine guns, primarily.

    That was a warning to Europe what a truly modernized, mechanized war between advanced nations would look like. The great failure, perhaps, was not preparing for that and developing new tactics to avoid appalling bloodshed (eg tanks). We had 60 years to think.

    Presumably the European powers didn’t think because they were all focused on easy wars against spear throwing natives in Africa, etc. So the horror of World War One becomes, ironically, the price of rampant imperialism

    History has a strange way of slowly but surely serving justice
    Defensive massed rifle fire was even more deadly.

    The British learned this the hard way from the Boer War. That's why we escaped with far fewer casualties than the French or Germans.

    The European powers learned the wrong lessons from the Boer war and the Russo Japanese war. They realised that rifle fire was deadly, but took the view that attacks that were pressed home with sufficient vigour, and sufficient willingness to take casualties, would eventually prevail.
    Yes - I guess we always use "invention of the machine gun" as a shorthand for a much more comprehensive set of developments in the ability to fire a large number of bullets, continuously, by a comparatively smaller number of defenders, and the lack of recognition of the tactical impact of those developments.
    Every Boer was at least a competent marksman, and their best snipers were deadly. They had a habit of shooting down British officers and couriers at 1,000 yards, something our own commanders thought terribly unsporting. A lot of military careers were destroyed in the early months of that war.
    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5
    A pedant writes... they were mostly line infantry, albeit by then were issued with a single shot breech loading rifle (the Martin-Henry)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,345
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Nope.

    The tanks in WWI were arguably not as revolutionary as better assault tactics. The typical tank attack ran out of working tanks within a few miles.

    Read some actual accounts of the tank VCs - last tank working, on its own, getting surrounded by Germans, fights as a static pillbox until they die or escape on foot.
    I accept that early tanks were rubbish. But by 1939 they were good enough for Blitzkrieg

    That’s my point. Read my comment. We invented them first - if only we’d invented them earlier we could have made them war winners by the time WW1 came along
    We might also have developed the standard tactics of tank warfare before the battlefield became a quagmire which didn't help.

    I've often wondered what would have happened if there had never been the brief period when (horse) cavalry become an ineffective tool due to the invention of the machine gun, before motorized infantry, tanks, then helicopters, became the new cavalry. WWI and even the US Civil War might have been very different affairs.
    Good point on the US Civil War. One of the bloodiest wars, per capita, ever fought? Because of machine guns, primarily.

    That was a warning to Europe what a truly modernized, mechanized war between advanced nations would look like. The great failure, perhaps, was not preparing for that and developing new tactics to avoid appalling bloodshed (eg tanks). We had 60 years to think.

    Presumably the European powers didn’t think because they were all focused on easy wars against spear throwing natives in Africa, etc. So the horror of World War One becomes, ironically, the price of rampant imperialism

    History has a strange way of slowly but surely serving justice
    Machine-guns weren't really much of a thing in the ACW. Only a very few Gatling guns were used, for instance (two figures at most).

    Of the 630,000 fatalities, 420,000 died of various diseases, including measles, typhus and cholera.

    I think actually the deadliest wars in English history were probably the Civil War of 1642-1646 and the Second War of the Roses from 1459-61. It’s hard to be sure given the lack of reliable population estimates and casualty figures, but it has been suggested more men may have died in the rout of Towton (1461) than died on the first day of the Somme.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,143

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    mwadams said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Nope.

    The tanks in WWI were arguably not as revolutionary as better assault tactics. The typical tank attack ran out of working tanks within a few miles.

    Read some actual accounts of the tank VCs - last tank working, on its own, getting surrounded by Germans, fights as a static pillbox until they die or escape on foot.
    I accept that early tanks were rubbish. But by 1939 they were good enough for Blitzkrieg

    That’s my point. Read my comment. We invented them first - if only we’d invented them earlier we could have made them war winners by the time WW1 came along
    We might also have developed the standard tactics of tank warfare before the battlefield became a quagmire which didn't help.

    I've often wondered what would have happened if there had never been the brief period when (horse) cavalry become an ineffective tool due to the invention of the machine gun, before motorized infantry, tanks, then helicopters, became the new cavalry. WWI and even the US Civil War might have been very different affairs.
    Good point on the US Civil War. One of the bloodiest wars, per capita, ever fought? Because of machine guns, primarily.

    That was a warning to Europe what a truly modernized, mechanized war between advanced nations would look like. The great failure, perhaps, was not preparing for that and developing new tactics to avoid appalling bloodshed (eg tanks). We had 60 years to think.

    Presumably the European powers didn’t think because they were all focused on easy wars against spear throwing natives in Africa, etc. So the horror of World War One becomes, ironically, the price of rampant imperialism

    History has a strange way of slowly but surely serving justice
    Defensive massed rifle fire was even more deadly.

    The British learned this the hard way from the Boer War. That's why we escaped with far fewer casualties than the French or Germans.

    The European powers learned the wrong lessons from the Boer war and the Russo Japanese war. They realised that rifle fire was deadly, but took the view that attacks that were pressed home with sufficient vigour, and sufficient willingness to take casualties, would eventually prevail.
    Yes - I guess we always use "invention of the machine gun" as a shorthand for a much more comprehensive set of developments in the ability to fire a large number of bullets, continuously, by a comparatively smaller number of defenders, and the lack of recognition of the tactical impact of those developments.
    Every Boer was at least a competent marksman, and their best snipers were deadly. They had a habit of shooting down British officers and couriers at 1,000 yards, something our own commanders thought terribly unsporting. A lot of military careers were destroyed in the early months of that war.
    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5
    The Life and Death of Colonel Blimp
    Apocalypse Now
    Paths of Glory
    All Quite on the Western Front
    The Cruel Sea
    Good list

    I’d put ‘1917’ in my top 5. It has a kind of hallucinatory genius. A masterpiece

    The first half hour of Saving Private Ryan is awesome, but the rest is mediocre

    The Deer Hunter is grueling but iconic and unforgettable

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    algarkirk said:

    Everything in the article is true of course. A circumstance like Covid and aftermath is a gift for opposition parties, as it creates positions which are inevitable and intolerable and if soluble at all only over a long time and at the cost of billions when the public finances are already is a mess.

    So the Tories in England and UK are 20 points behind Labour; the SNP in Scotland have collapsed and Labour in Wales is disappearing without trace. Not.

    Oppositions generally have not done as well as might be expected so far in GB, Scotland, Wales and England. Why?

    The opposition in England is doing much better than the opposition in Scotland.

    Scottish sub-sample from today’s YouGov:

    SNP 42%
    SCon 24%
    SLab 17%
    SGP 8%
    SLD 4%
    Ref 1%
    oth 4%
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.
    How do you feel about the argument that creating a world of regional blocs just recreates the pre-WW1 situation?
    Some kind of war between China and the West seems almost inevitable, now. Just gotta hope it’s minor wars by proxy - like the USSR v USA - not an all-out clash in the Pacific
    The Americans would give them an absolute kicking and the Chinese know it.
    Depends what kind of war it is.

    All out nuclear war means mutually assured destruction. The globe in smoking ruins. No one wins.

    So presumably you mean one step down from that - a conventional all-theatre war, across the world? I imagine the Americans would ‘win’ that, but it would not be a walkover. China has many allies, now, as the world’s biggest trader, and China also has the bigger navy.

    But that is also unlikely because both sides would be scared

    My likely scenario is as @casino posits - a serious clash in the South China Sea over Taiwan. That seems borderline probable to me, within the decade. China could easily triumph
    I meant even in a limited theatre war such as Taiwan. Depends if US has the will to defend it, though I think they probably would. China cannot pour troops over the border like they did in Korea. It would be messy, but I still think the US will win any conventional type war by a country mile.
    There is no way the US is going to get in a shooting war with a nuclear superpower over Taiwan. If they really were prepared to defend it they would have troops based there now. There are countries the US would fight China for, Australia and Japan which both have permanent US military presences, but Taiwan isn't one of them.

    Taiwan will get the full Hong Kong treatment and be assimilated by 2035-40.
    America cannot afford to let Taiwan fall as if they do then advanced semi-conductor technology falls into the hands of the Chinese and chokes off the USA supply of chips.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,868
    Leon said:

    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5

    Black Hawk Down
    Saving Private Ryan
    War Requiem
    Deer Hunter
    A Bridge Too Far

    (Apocalypse Now
    Full Metal Jacket
    Life & Death of Colonel Blimp
    Dunkirk
    The Hurt Locker)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,112
    Alistair said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.
    How do you feel about the argument that creating a world of regional blocs just recreates the pre-WW1 situation?
    Some kind of war between China and the West seems almost inevitable, now. Just gotta hope it’s minor wars by proxy - like the USSR v USA - not an all-out clash in the Pacific
    The Americans would give them an absolute kicking and the Chinese know it.
    Depends what kind of war it is.

    All out nuclear war means mutually assured destruction. The globe in smoking ruins. No one wins.

    So presumably you mean one step down from that - a conventional all-theatre war, across the world? I imagine the Americans would ‘win’ that, but it would not be a walkover. China has many allies, now, as the world’s biggest trader, and China also has the bigger navy.

    But that is also unlikely because both sides would be scared

    My likely scenario is as @casino posits - a serious clash in the South China Sea over Taiwan. That seems borderline probable to me, within the decade. China could easily triumph
    I meant even in a limited theatre war such as Taiwan. Depends if US has the will to defend it, though I think they probably would. China cannot pour troops over the border like they did in Korea. It would be messy, but I still think the US will win any conventional type war by a country mile.
    There is no way the US is going to get in a shooting war with a nuclear superpower over Taiwan. If they really were prepared to defend it they would have troops based there now. There are countries the US would fight China for, Australia and Japan which both have permanent US military presences, but Taiwan isn't one of them.

    Taiwan will get the full Hong Kong treatment and be assimilated by 2035-40.
    America cannot afford to let Taiwan fall as if they do then advanced semi-conductor technology falls into the hands of the Chinese and chokes off the USA supply of chips.
    Biden (and Intel) have just announced a vast program on on-shoring.... chip production.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,799
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5

    Black Hawk Down
    Saving Private Ryan
    War Requiem
    Deer Hunter
    A Bridge Too Far

    (Apocalypse Now
    Full Metal Jacket
    Life & Death of Colonel Blimp
    Dunkirk
    The Hurt Locker)
    Angels One Five.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,345
    Leon said:

    PB really is impressive on military history, tactics, weaponry. It’s almost like we’re a bunch of over-educated middle aged men who love reading too much military history.

    Oi! Speak for yourself.

    Some of us are still in our 30s...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,920
    edited July 2021
    Total joke....

    Tokyo Olympics: Russians face backlash from fellow competitors - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/58023171
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,743
    edited July 2021

    In interpreting today's ONS data for England (https://ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/30july2021), worth remembering that cases peaked in Scotland at the start of July, but this is the first week a decline has shown up in ONS report...

    https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1421068272292741122?s=20

    For those panicking about the England numbers....

    I thought the most interesting thing about the ONS survey was the breakdown by age. Virtually the only age groups not showing either a decline or at least a levelling off are those going up to 16. Given that fact, it's quite believable that schools breaking up will have had a dramatic effect.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,868

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5

    Black Hawk Down
    Saving Private Ryan
    War Requiem
    Deer Hunter
    A Bridge Too Far

    (Apocalypse Now
    Full Metal Jacket
    Life & Death of Colonel Blimp
    Dunkirk
    The Hurt Locker)
    Angels One Five.
    Fantastic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,345
    Alistair said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.
    How do you feel about the argument that creating a world of regional blocs just recreates the pre-WW1 situation?
    Some kind of war between China and the West seems almost inevitable, now. Just gotta hope it’s minor wars by proxy - like the USSR v USA - not an all-out clash in the Pacific
    The Americans would give them an absolute kicking and the Chinese know it.
    Depends what kind of war it is.

    All out nuclear war means mutually assured destruction. The globe in smoking ruins. No one wins.

    So presumably you mean one step down from that - a conventional all-theatre war, across the world? I imagine the Americans would ‘win’ that, but it would not be a walkover. China has many allies, now, as the world’s biggest trader, and China also has the bigger navy.

    But that is also unlikely because both sides would be scared

    My likely scenario is as @casino posits - a serious clash in the South China Sea over Taiwan. That seems borderline probable to me, within the decade. China could easily triumph
    I meant even in a limited theatre war such as Taiwan. Depends if US has the will to defend it, though I think they probably would. China cannot pour troops over the border like they did in Korea. It would be messy, but I still think the US will win any conventional type war by a country mile.
    There is no way the US is going to get in a shooting war with a nuclear superpower over Taiwan. If they really were prepared to defend it they would have troops based there now. There are countries the US would fight China for, Australia and Japan which both have permanent US military presences, but Taiwan isn't one of them.

    Taiwan will get the full Hong Kong treatment and be assimilated by 2035-40.
    America cannot afford to let Taiwan fall as if they do then advanced semi-conductor technology falls into the hands of the Chinese and chokes off the USA supply of chips.
    If only the Americans spoke English. Tell the people of the Midwest their supply of chips is threatened and they’ll swarm to China en masse and kill everyone.

    But as they call them ‘fries’ that idea won’t work.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,143
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.
    How do you feel about the argument that creating a world of regional blocs just recreates the pre-WW1 situation?
    Some kind of war between China and the West seems almost inevitable, now. Just gotta hope it’s minor wars by proxy - like the USSR v USA - not an all-out clash in the Pacific
    The Americans would give them an absolute kicking and the Chinese know it.
    Depends what kind of war it is.

    All out nuclear war means mutually assured destruction. The globe in smoking ruins. No one wins.

    So presumably you mean one step down from that - a conventional all-theatre war, across the world? I imagine the Americans would ‘win’ that, but it would not be a walkover. China has many allies, now, as the world’s biggest trader, and China also has the bigger navy.

    But that is also unlikely because both sides would be scared

    My likely scenario is as @casino posits - a serious clash in the South China Sea over Taiwan. That seems borderline probable to me, within the decade. China could easily triumph
    I meant even in a limited theatre war such as Taiwan. Depends if US has the will to defend it, though I think they probably would. China cannot pour troops over the border like they did in Korea. It would be messy, but I still think the US will win any conventional type war by a country mile.
    There is no way the US is going to get in a shooting war with a nuclear superpower over Taiwan. If they really were prepared to defend it they would have troops based there now. There are countries the US would fight China for, Australia and Japan which both have permanent US military presences, but Taiwan isn't one of them.

    Taiwan will get the full Hong Kong treatment and be assimilated by 2035-40.
    Yes of course. And it will probably be sooner than that

    China also has a moral argument on its side. Taiwan is historically and demographically part of China, it is only ‘independent’ because of a renegade nationalist government decamping there in 1949

    If and when China feels able to retake Taiwan, it will do so. Most of the world will shrug and carry on its enormous trade with China. The USA will remonstrate but do nothing militarily. It really will be the Sudetenland 2.0
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    On the flip side, perfectly serviceable steam tugboats were up and running by 1800. If someone had told Napoleon about them he'd have invaded in a flat calm, et nous parlerions francais.
    I'm unsure about how useful early tugboats would have been, but I'm amazed that Napoleon apparently made very little use of balloons. Revolutionary France had an observation balloon corps that helped in the victory at the Battle of Fleurus in 1794, but Napoleon never really used them.

    https://www.quora.com/Why-didnt-Napoleon-use-military-balloons
    "On her maiden trip, the Charlotte Dundas, with her 10 horsepower steam engine, carried 20 passengers and pulled 2 loaded barges 19 ½ miles along the Forth & Clyde Canal near Glasgow, Scotland. This 6-hour trip was the only journey she took. Canal proprietors, fearing she would erode the canal banks with the paddlewheel, banned paddle wheelers on the canal. So, the Charlotte Dundas was left sitting where she stopped."

    https://www.harlowmarine.com/a-brief-look-at-tugboat-history/

    That's 1802. Sounds adequate to tow barges full of infantry across the channel in a calm.
    Even in a dead calm, there are currents. 10 horsepower is not a lot. Particularly when you consider the efficiency of paddlewheels - you'd be lucky to get 1/2 the power into the water.
    Not currents you need to worry about. There's tides, sure, but in a channel crossing you don't worry about fighting those, you just point at where you want to go and the effects cancel out over time. I'm not saying the logistics are straightforward, but marching on Moscow isn't cheap either.

    In reality one would hope that if Napoleon started building bulk steam tugs the admiralty would have seen the problem and started building its own.
    You can end up spending the whole day fighting the currents. Hence some of the problems with Sealion.

    Historically, Napoleon was looking at using rowing to help manoeuvre against wind and tide. The British defensive response also included rowed gun boats. In both cases the craft had sails as well.
    Not if you understand some very basic navigation. You either aim off uptide by enough to compensate, or if you are sailing through a whole tidal cycle ignore the problem cos it cancels out. Its not like trying to canoe up a waterfall.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,586
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5

    Black Hawk Down
    Saving Private Ryan
    War Requiem
    Deer Hunter
    A Bridge Too Far

    (Apocalypse Now
    Full Metal Jacket
    Life & Death of Colonel Blimp
    Dunkirk
    The Hurt Locker)
    Angels One Five.
    Fantastic.
    In addition to that lot... The Way Ahead
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,297
    edited July 2021
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.
    How do you feel about the argument that creating a world of regional blocs just recreates the pre-WW1 situation?
    Some kind of war between China and the West seems almost inevitable, now. Just gotta hope it’s minor wars by proxy - like the USSR v USA - not an all-out clash in the Pacific
    The Americans would give them an absolute kicking and the Chinese know it.
    Depends what kind of war it is.

    All out nuclear war means mutually assured destruction. The globe in smoking ruins. No one wins.

    So presumably you mean one step down from that - a conventional all-theatre war, across the world? I imagine the Americans would ‘win’ that, but it would not be a walkover. China has many allies, now, as the world’s biggest trader, and China also has the bigger navy.

    But that is also unlikely because both sides would be scared

    My likely scenario is as @casino posits - a serious clash in the South China Sea over Taiwan. That seems borderline probable to me, within the decade. China could easily triumph
    I meant even in a limited theatre war such as Taiwan. Depends if US has the will to defend it, though I think they probably would. China cannot pour troops over the border like they did in Korea. It would be messy, but I still think the US will win any conventional type war by a country mile.
    I am more pessimistic. China is close to armed superiority in its own neighborhood. It will use its increasing advantages in AI and cyber-warfare absolutely ruthlessly

    They are many scenarios but if I had to choose one it would be China seizing Taiwan like Germany seizing the Sudetenland. Not a shot fired. The West will sigh and shrug and pray that it ends there
    That's what we saw with Crimea, with the added parallel that it breached a treaty commitment, while the PRC and ROC can still claim to be in the midst of a civil war.

    The Crimean situation is an interesting parallel with the claim that our treaty commitment to Belgium made involvement in WWI inevitable.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,920
    edited July 2021
    BBC up to their weirdness again ..BBC One time lagged coverage of the 10km, that is live on Red button...
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    If there was any doubt that Hong Kong is over.....

    Hong Kong activist Tong Ying-kit has been jailed for nine years, after he became the first person to be convicted under the national security law Beijing imposed on the city.

    On Friday, in a landmark sentencing for the city four days after he was found guilty of inciting secession and terrorist activities, 24-year-old Tong was handed the custodial jail term by the the High Court. His sentencing marks the end of Hong Kong’s first-ever trial under the sweeping security legislation which was enacted on June 30 last year.

    And all the west will do is write some angry tweets.
    We are taking in all Hong Kongs best talent.

    But I agree more should be done. It is about time we pulled Western companies out of China.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,553
    edited July 2021
    algarkirk said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    And in news which knocks everything else into a cocked hat

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57988023

    David King on r4 yesterday saying it is a certainty that calcutta will be uninhabitable by 2050. Viruses and stuff are insanely trivial in comparison to that great clunking fact.

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-and-ireland-among-five-nations-most-likely-to-survive-a-collapse-of-global-civilisation-study-suggests-12366136

    The UK and Ireland are among five nations most likely to survive a collapse of global civilisation, researchers have said.

    A study has suggested a combination of ecological destruction, limited resources and population growth could trigger a worldwide breakdown "within a few decades", with climate change making things worse.

    Five countries were identified as best placed to maintain civilisation within their own borders, with New Zealand topping the list and followed by Iceland, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Australia.
    I have visa free entry to 4 out of 5.

    🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳

    I am sure our border force is perfectly capable of defending our coasts from small boats carrying 500,000,000 million civilization-free Europeans to our island refuge.

    We'd first have to blow up the Channel Tunnel to show those 500 million Europeans that we were serious.

    If Boris Johnson really was the heir to Churchill then he would want to have his own Mers-el-Kébir moment.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,143
    Alistair said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.
    How do you feel about the argument that creating a world of regional blocs just recreates the pre-WW1 situation?
    Some kind of war between China and the West seems almost inevitable, now. Just gotta hope it’s minor wars by proxy - like the USSR v USA - not an all-out clash in the Pacific
    The Americans would give them an absolute kicking and the Chinese know it.
    Depends what kind of war it is.

    All out nuclear war means mutually assured destruction. The globe in smoking ruins. No one wins.

    So presumably you mean one step down from that - a conventional all-theatre war, across the world? I imagine the Americans would ‘win’ that, but it would not be a walkover. China has many allies, now, as the world’s biggest trader, and China also has the bigger navy.

    But that is also unlikely because both sides would be scared

    My likely scenario is as @casino posits - a serious clash in the South China Sea over Taiwan. That seems borderline probable to me, within the decade. China could easily triumph
    I meant even in a limited theatre war such as Taiwan. Depends if US has the will to defend it, though I think they probably would. China cannot pour troops over the border like they did in Korea. It would be messy, but I still think the US will win any conventional type war by a country mile.
    There is no way the US is going to get in a shooting war with a nuclear superpower over Taiwan. If they really were prepared to defend it they would have troops based there now. There are countries the US would fight China for, Australia and Japan which both have permanent US military presences, but Taiwan isn't one of them.

    Taiwan will get the full Hong Kong treatment and be assimilated by 2035-40.
    America cannot afford to let Taiwan fall as if they do then advanced semi-conductor technology falls into the hands of the Chinese and chokes off the USA supply of chips.
    The west is now, belatedly, decreasing its reliance on Taiwanese chip-making. It will take time. But we are at last doing it

    And one reason we’re doing it is that Taiwan looks doomed in the medium term
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    mwadams said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Nope.

    The tanks in WWI were arguably not as revolutionary as better assault tactics. The typical tank attack ran out of working tanks within a few miles.

    Read some actual accounts of the tank VCs - last tank working, on its own, getting surrounded by Germans, fights as a static pillbox until they die or escape on foot.
    I accept that early tanks were rubbish. But by 1939 they were good enough for Blitzkrieg

    That’s my point. Read my comment. We invented them first - if only we’d invented them earlier we could have made them war winners by the time WW1 came along
    We might also have developed the standard tactics of tank warfare before the battlefield became a quagmire which didn't help.

    I've often wondered what would have happened if there had never been the brief period when (horse) cavalry become an ineffective tool due to the invention of the machine gun, before motorized infantry, tanks, then helicopters, became the new cavalry. WWI and even the US Civil War might have been very different affairs.
    Good point on the US Civil War. One of the bloodiest wars, per capita, ever fought? Because of machine guns, primarily.

    That was a warning to Europe what a truly modernized, mechanized war between advanced nations would look like. The great failure, perhaps, was not preparing for that and developing new tactics to avoid appalling bloodshed (eg tanks). We had 60 years to think.

    Presumably the European powers didn’t think because they were all focused on easy wars against spear throwing natives in Africa, etc. So the horror of World War One becomes, ironically, the price of rampant imperialism

    History has a strange way of slowly but surely serving justice
    Defensive massed rifle fire was even more deadly.

    The British learned this the hard way from the Boer War. That's why we escaped with far fewer casualties than the French or Germans.

    The European powers learned the wrong lessons from the Boer war and the Russo Japanese war. They realised that rifle fire was deadly, but took the view that attacks that were pressed home with sufficient vigour, and sufficient willingness to take casualties, would eventually prevail.
    Yes - I guess we always use "invention of the machine gun" as a shorthand for a much more comprehensive set of developments in the ability to fire a large number of bullets, continuously, by a comparatively smaller number of defenders, and the lack of recognition of the tactical impact of those developments.
    Every Boer was at least a competent marksman, and their best snipers were deadly. They had a habit of shooting down British officers and couriers at 1,000 yards, something our own commanders thought terribly unsporting. A lot of military careers were destroyed in the early months of that war.
    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5
    Best war movies -

    1. Paths of Glory
    2. Threads
    3. Grave of the Fireflies
    4. Apocalypse Now
    5. The Deer Hunter
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,525
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.
    How do you feel about the argument that creating a world of regional blocs just recreates the pre-WW1 situation?
    Some kind of war between China and the West seems almost inevitable, now. Just gotta hope it’s minor wars by proxy - like the USSR v USA - not an all-out clash in the Pacific
    The Americans would give them an absolute kicking and the Chinese know it.
    Depends what kind of war it is.

    All out nuclear war means mutually assured destruction. The globe in smoking ruins. No one wins.

    So presumably you mean one step down from that - a conventional all-theatre war, across the world? I imagine the Americans would ‘win’ that, but it would not be a walkover. China has many allies, now, as the world’s biggest trader, and China also has the bigger navy.

    But that is also unlikely because both sides would be scared

    My likely scenario is as @casino posits - a serious clash in the South China Sea over Taiwan. That seems borderline probable to me, within the decade. China could easily triumph
    I meant even in a limited theatre war such as Taiwan. Depends if US has the will to defend it, though I think they probably would. China cannot pour troops over the border like they did in Korea. It would be messy, but I still think the US will win any conventional type war by a country mile.
    That is not currently the view of the US.
    The US military like a reason to ask for more "resources". I imagine they will have war gamed it many times. It is not in their interest to suggest they would give the Chinese a kicking any more than it was in their interest to boast how they would against Saddam in Gulf War 1.
    China is not Saddam in Gulf War 1

    I think your view of easy American superiority is about 10-15 years out of date
    America is also more internally divided than it was. Would a serious conflict make it cohere or just fuel further division?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,868
    mwadams said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5

    Black Hawk Down
    Saving Private Ryan
    War Requiem
    Deer Hunter
    A Bridge Too Far

    (Apocalypse Now
    Full Metal Jacket
    Life & Death of Colonel Blimp
    Dunkirk
    The Hurt Locker)
    Angels One Five.
    Fantastic.
    In addition to that lot... The Way Ahead
    Embarrassed to say I haven't seen it.

    Will put it on my list now (Prime Video £3).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,112
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    On the flip side, perfectly serviceable steam tugboats were up and running by 1800. If someone had told Napoleon about them he'd have invaded in a flat calm, et nous parlerions francais.
    I'm unsure about how useful early tugboats would have been, but I'm amazed that Napoleon apparently made very little use of balloons. Revolutionary France had an observation balloon corps that helped in the victory at the Battle of Fleurus in 1794, but Napoleon never really used them.

    https://www.quora.com/Why-didnt-Napoleon-use-military-balloons
    "On her maiden trip, the Charlotte Dundas, with her 10 horsepower steam engine, carried 20 passengers and pulled 2 loaded barges 19 ½ miles along the Forth & Clyde Canal near Glasgow, Scotland. This 6-hour trip was the only journey she took. Canal proprietors, fearing she would erode the canal banks with the paddlewheel, banned paddle wheelers on the canal. So, the Charlotte Dundas was left sitting where she stopped."

    https://www.harlowmarine.com/a-brief-look-at-tugboat-history/

    That's 1802. Sounds adequate to tow barges full of infantry across the channel in a calm.
    Even in a dead calm, there are currents. 10 horsepower is not a lot. Particularly when you consider the efficiency of paddlewheels - you'd be lucky to get 1/2 the power into the water.
    Not currents you need to worry about. There's tides, sure, but in a channel crossing you don't worry about fighting those, you just point at where you want to go and the effects cancel out over time. I'm not saying the logistics are straightforward, but marching on Moscow isn't cheap either.

    In reality one would hope that if Napoleon started building bulk steam tugs the admiralty would have seen the problem and started building its own.
    You can end up spending the whole day fighting the currents. Hence some of the problems with Sealion.

    Historically, Napoleon was looking at using rowing to help manoeuvre against wind and tide. The British defensive response also included rowed gun boats. In both cases the craft had sails as well.
    Not if you understand some very basic navigation. You either aim off uptide by enough to compensate, or if you are sailing through a whole tidal cycle ignore the problem cos it cancels out. Its not like trying to canoe up a waterfall.
    That assumes your rate of advance is substantially greater than the speed of the tides/currents.... You can end up "spending" much of your speed through the water on just not being swept sideways, reducing your rate of advance to... not very much.

    This was a serious issue with Sealion.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,553

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.
    How do you feel about the argument that creating a world of regional blocs just recreates the pre-WW1 situation?
    Some kind of war between China and the West seems almost inevitable, now. Just gotta hope it’s minor wars by proxy - like the USSR v USA - not an all-out clash in the Pacific
    The Americans would give them an absolute kicking and the Chinese know it.
    Depends what kind of war it is.

    All out nuclear war means mutually assured destruction. The globe in smoking ruins. No one wins.

    So presumably you mean one step down from that - a conventional all-theatre war, across the world? I imagine the Americans would ‘win’ that, but it would not be a walkover. China has many allies, now, as the world’s biggest trader, and China also has the bigger navy.

    But that is also unlikely because both sides would be scared

    My likely scenario is as @casino posits - a serious clash in the South China Sea over Taiwan. That seems borderline probable to me, within the decade. China could easily triumph
    I meant even in a limited theatre war such as Taiwan. Depends if US has the will to defend it, though I think they probably would. China cannot pour troops over the border like they did in Korea. It would be messy, but I still think the US will win any conventional type war by a country mile.
    That is not currently the view of the US.
    The US military like a reason to ask for more "resources". I imagine they will have war gamed it many times. It is not in their interest to suggest they would give the Chinese a kicking any more than it was in their interest to boast how they would against Saddam in Gulf War 1.
    China is not Saddam in Gulf War 1

    I think your view of easy American superiority is about 10-15 years out of date
    America is also more internally divided than it was. Would a serious conflict make it cohere or just fuel further division?
    Yes and no.

    Lest we forget the Senate only just declared war on Saddam in 1991.

    52 to 47.

    Just one short of the cursed ratio.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,586
    TOPPING said:

    mwadams said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5

    Black Hawk Down
    Saving Private Ryan
    War Requiem
    Deer Hunter
    A Bridge Too Far

    (Apocalypse Now
    Full Metal Jacket
    Life & Death of Colonel Blimp
    Dunkirk
    The Hurt Locker)
    Angels One Five.
    Fantastic.
    In addition to that lot... The Way Ahead
    Embarrassed to say I haven't seen it.

    Will put it on my list now (Prime Video £3).
    You can also get the original "training film" version of it from the IWM.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,553
    Black Hawk Down is my top five war films.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,143

    Total joke....

    Tokyo Olympics: Russians face backlash from fellow competitors - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/58023171

    It’s another reason I can’t get into these Olympics. Either ban them or allow them. This halfway house is a farce
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,364

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Nope.

    The tanks in WWI were arguably not as revolutionary as better assault tactics. The typical tank attack ran out of working tanks within a few miles.

    Read some actual accounts of the tank VCs - last tank working, on its own, getting surrounded by Germans, fights as a static pillbox until they die or escape on foot.
    Been out with dog. It’s arguable that even the great tank battle at Cambrai was mostly down to the now extremely refined British assault tactics, that would do so much to win the war in 1918. The Germans were shocked by the first use of tanks, but quickly adapted, and as others have said, the 1916-1918 tanks were very much not the panzers and Shermans of ww2 fame. In reality the tactics of the British in particular, use of surprise, lightening bombardment followed by exceptional creeping bombardment, storm troops (idea nicked from the Germans), all reached a peak in late 1917-1918, but the signs were there as early as the Somme. July14th saw a successful, limited night attack with many of the characteristics of later fighting. Moving away from trying to breakthrough, to allow the enemy to get himself killed trying to recover lost ground.
    I’m happy that we no longer live in such a world.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5

    Black Hawk Down
    Saving Private Ryan
    War Requiem
    Deer Hunter
    A Bridge Too Far

    (Apocalypse Now
    Full Metal Jacket
    Life & Death of Colonel Blimp
    Dunkirk
    The Hurt Locker)
    Behind Enemy Lines because I can be glimpsed in the background of one the flightdeck scenes for about 350ms.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,112

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Nope.

    The tanks in WWI were arguably not as revolutionary as better assault tactics. The typical tank attack ran out of working tanks within a few miles.

    Read some actual accounts of the tank VCs - last tank working, on its own, getting surrounded by Germans, fights as a static pillbox until they die or escape on foot.
    Been out with dog. It’s arguable that even the great tank battle at Cambrai was mostly down to the now extremely refined British assault tactics, that would do so much to win the war in 1918. The Germans were shocked by the first use of tanks, but quickly adapted, and as others have said, the 1916-1918 tanks were very much not the panzers and Shermans of ww2 fame. In reality the tactics of the British in particular, use of surprise, lightening bombardment followed by exceptional creeping bombardment, storm troops (idea nicked from the Germans), all reached a peak in late 1917-1918, but the signs were there as early as the Somme. July14th saw a successful, limited night attack with many of the characteristics of later fighting. Moving away from trying to breakthrough, to allow the enemy to get himself killed trying to recover lost ground.
    I’m happy that we no longer live in such a world.
    We live in such a world...

    Look what happened to the Ukrainians vs Russians. Wipe out due to Russian artillery.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,525
    Watching the 10,000m in the heat of Tokyo reminds me of Liz McColgan's phenomenal win in 1991.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,920
    edited July 2021
    Gary Lineker....I am stepping down from BT Sports presenting to spend more time with my family...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-9842929/Former-England-striker-Gary-Lineker-joins-LaLigaTV-talent-line-leaving-BT-Sport.html

    Interesting that La Liga have gone for their own channel, while EPL just rolling over existing deals with Sky / BT / Amazon.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,143
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    mwadams said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Nope.

    The tanks in WWI were arguably not as revolutionary as better assault tactics. The typical tank attack ran out of working tanks within a few miles.

    Read some actual accounts of the tank VCs - last tank working, on its own, getting surrounded by Germans, fights as a static pillbox until they die or escape on foot.
    I accept that early tanks were rubbish. But by 1939 they were good enough for Blitzkrieg

    That’s my point. Read my comment. We invented them first - if only we’d invented them earlier we could have made them war winners by the time WW1 came along
    We might also have developed the standard tactics of tank warfare before the battlefield became a quagmire which didn't help.

    I've often wondered what would have happened if there had never been the brief period when (horse) cavalry become an ineffective tool due to the invention of the machine gun, before motorized infantry, tanks, then helicopters, became the new cavalry. WWI and even the US Civil War might have been very different affairs.
    Good point on the US Civil War. One of the bloodiest wars, per capita, ever fought? Because of machine guns, primarily.

    That was a warning to Europe what a truly modernized, mechanized war between advanced nations would look like. The great failure, perhaps, was not preparing for that and developing new tactics to avoid appalling bloodshed (eg tanks). We had 60 years to think.

    Presumably the European powers didn’t think because they were all focused on easy wars against spear throwing natives in Africa, etc. So the horror of World War One becomes, ironically, the price of rampant imperialism

    History has a strange way of slowly but surely serving justice
    Defensive massed rifle fire was even more deadly.

    The British learned this the hard way from the Boer War. That's why we escaped with far fewer casualties than the French or Germans.

    The European powers learned the wrong lessons from the Boer war and the Russo Japanese war. They realised that rifle fire was deadly, but took the view that attacks that were pressed home with sufficient vigour, and sufficient willingness to take casualties, would eventually prevail.
    Yes - I guess we always use "invention of the machine gun" as a shorthand for a much more comprehensive set of developments in the ability to fire a large number of bullets, continuously, by a comparatively smaller number of defenders, and the lack of recognition of the tactical impact of those developments.
    Every Boer was at least a competent marksman, and their best snipers were deadly. They had a habit of shooting down British officers and couriers at 1,000 yards, something our own commanders thought terribly unsporting. A lot of military careers were destroyed in the early months of that war.
    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5
    Best war movies -

    1. Paths of Glory
    2. Threads
    3. Grave of the Fireflies
    4. Apocalypse Now
    5. The Deer Hunter
    Some amazing-sounding movies I’ve never even heard of. I’m making a list for my own reference

    Graves of the Fireflies
    The Way Ahead
    Angels One Five
    War Requiem

    ??!

    Coincidentally, talking of Great War movies, I watched the BBC 2014 version of Testament of Youth last night, for the first time. Deeply moving, really well done. You will weep
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,069

    IshmaelZ said:

    And in news which knocks everything else into a cocked hat

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57988023

    David King on r4 yesterday saying it is a certainty that calcutta will be uninhabitable by 2050. Viruses and stuff are insanely trivial in comparison to that great clunking fact.

    https://news.sky.com/story/uk-and-ireland-among-five-nations-most-likely-to-survive-a-collapse-of-global-civilisation-study-suggests-12366136

    The UK and Ireland are among five nations most likely to survive a collapse of global civilisation, researchers have said.

    A study has suggested a combination of ecological destruction, limited resources and population growth could trigger a worldwide breakdown "within a few decades", with climate change making things worse.

    Five countries were identified as best placed to maintain civilisation within their own borders, with New Zealand topping the list and followed by Iceland, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Australia.
    I have visa free entry to 4 out of 5.

    🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳🥳
    'Twenty countries were studied'

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,112

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Nope.

    The tanks in WWI were arguably not as revolutionary as better assault tactics. The typical tank attack ran out of working tanks within a few miles.

    Read some actual accounts of the tank VCs - last tank working, on its own, getting surrounded by Germans, fights as a static pillbox until they die or escape on foot.
    Been out with dog. It’s arguable that even the great tank battle at Cambrai was mostly down to the now extremely refined British assault tactics, that would do so much to win the war in 1918. The Germans were shocked by the first use of tanks, but quickly adapted, and as others have said, the 1916-1918 tanks were very much not the panzers and Shermans of ww2 fame. In reality the tactics of the British in particular, use of surprise, lightening bombardment followed by exceptional creeping bombardment, storm troops (idea nicked from the Germans), all reached a peak in late 1917-1918, but the signs were there as early as the Somme. July14th saw a successful, limited night attack with many of the characteristics of later fighting. Moving away from trying to breakthrough, to allow the enemy to get himself killed trying to recover lost ground.
    I’m happy that we no longer live in such a world.
    The Germans nicked the Storm Troops thing from British, Italian and French practise, IIRC.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,639
    mwadams said:

    TOPPING said:

    mwadams said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5

    Black Hawk Down
    Saving Private Ryan
    War Requiem
    Deer Hunter
    A Bridge Too Far

    (Apocalypse Now
    Full Metal Jacket
    Life & Death of Colonel Blimp
    Dunkirk
    The Hurt Locker)
    Angels One Five.
    Fantastic.
    In addition to that lot... The Way Ahead
    Embarrassed to say I haven't seen it.

    Will put it on my list now (Prime Video £3).
    You can also get the original "training film" version of it from the IWM.
    You should all get a free 30 day trial at the BFI film website and watch the full 9 hours of Shoah.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoah_(film)

    Not a war film as such, I admit, but a stunning piece of film making.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,553
    edited July 2021
    That's not the reason he said he left BT Sport as he said at the time.

    La Liga matches take place at the weekend, his decision to leave BT Sport was so he could follow Leicester's European matches with his family during midweeks.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,868
    edited July 2021
    mwadams said:

    TOPPING said:

    mwadams said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5

    Black Hawk Down
    Saving Private Ryan
    War Requiem
    Deer Hunter
    A Bridge Too Far

    (Apocalypse Now
    Full Metal Jacket
    Life & Death of Colonel Blimp
    Dunkirk
    The Hurt Locker)
    Angels One Five.
    Fantastic.
    In addition to that lot... The Way Ahead
    Embarrassed to say I haven't seen it.

    Will put it on my list now (Prime Video £3).
    You can also get the original "training film" version of it from the IWM.
    Wow I just read a bit about it and will certainly look at that. Too long since I've been to the IWM.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,535
    Pulpstar said:

    Cricky lad in the 10km running set off like he desperately needs the toilet.

    I did 10,000 metres tuesday and thursday evening. Tuesday was a quick(ish) one for me and took ~ 53 and a half minutes, thursday just over an hour.
    Really amazing how fast these boys go.
    If my maths is right, the 10k WR is six and a bit miles, at 4’10” a mile.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,553

    Gary Lineker....I am stepping down from BT Sports presenting to spend more time with my family...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-9842929/Former-England-striker-Gary-Lineker-joins-LaLigaTV-talent-line-leaving-BT-Sport.html

    Interesting that La Liga have gone for their own channel, while EPL just rolling over existing deals with Sky / BT / Amazon.

    Also La Liga have had their own channel for at least a season, you can get it via Premier Sports or Amazon.

    But it is silly to compare a dedicated channel for foreign rights and the deal for domestic rights.

    La Liga got ditched by Sky/moved to Eleven Sports which turned out to be a disaster for both Eleven and La Liga.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Is this sturgeon being interviewed on r4?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,920
    edited July 2021

    That's not the reason he said he left BT Sport as he said at the time.

    La Liga matches take place at the weekend, his decision to leave BT Sport was so he could follow Leicester's European matches with his family during midweeks.
    I am sure it is also a total coincidence that BT Sports is in the financial doo doo and La Liga TV have probably offered him a bumper pay packet....same as when he was on Al Jazeera Sport.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,868
    Dura_Ace said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5

    Black Hawk Down
    Saving Private Ryan
    War Requiem
    Deer Hunter
    A Bridge Too Far

    (Apocalypse Now
    Full Metal Jacket
    Life & Death of Colonel Blimp
    Dunkirk
    The Hurt Locker)
    Behind Enemy Lines because I can be glimpsed in the background of one the flightdeck scenes for about 350ms.
    Good enough for me.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Pulpstar said:

    Cricky lad in the 10km running set off like he desperately needs the toilet.

    I did 10,000 metres tuesday and thursday evening. Tuesday was a quick(ish) one for me and took ~ 53 and a half minutes, thursday just over an hour.
    Really amazing how fast these boys go.
    I'm a 'transport cyclist', who cycles for my commute/shopping/etc but doesn't do any club riding or similar. Nonetheless, it keeps me in decent shape and I'm pretty comfortable in the saddle now.

    Sometimes in the summer I go for leisure rides in the good weather, and my longest regular route is 26 miles, coincidentally almost exactly a marathon. I can do it in roughly 2 hours exactly, perhaps 2 hours 5 minutes at most. Which means that if I set off at the start of the marathon, on my bike, it would be a photo finish with the elite runners.

    I know they are elite, but it still blows my mind. The bike is a pretty massive advantage!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,920
    edited July 2021

    Gary Lineker....I am stepping down from BT Sports presenting to spend more time with my family...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-9842929/Former-England-striker-Gary-Lineker-joins-LaLigaTV-talent-line-leaving-BT-Sport.html

    Interesting that La Liga have gone for their own channel, while EPL just rolling over existing deals with Sky / BT / Amazon.

    Also La Liga have had their own channel for at least a season, you can get it via Premier Sports or Amazon.

    But it is silly to compare a dedicated channel for foreign rights and the deal for domestic rights.

    La Liga got ditched by Sky/moved to Eleven Sports which turned out to be a disaster for both Eleven and La Liga.
    The channel is part of La Liga president Javier Tebas' aim to move the league from an organiser of games to a global content provider. La Liga is the world's first football league to run its own television channel.

    They are testing the waters with what could be the future of cutting out the middle man.

    The thing is in the UK as a test market, La Liga really isn't very popular, outside the big game, it never got ratings. I can't see how it is profitable as a subscription service just for the UK.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,553
    edited July 2021

    That's not the reason he said he left BT Sport as he said at the time.

    La Liga matches take place at the weekend, his decision to leave BT Sport was so he could follow Leicester's European matches with his family during midweeks.
    I am sure it is also a total coincidence that BT Sports is in the financial doo doo and La Liga TV have probably offered him a bumper pay packet....same as when he was on Al Jazeera Sport.
    BT Sport aren't in financial doo doo, that's a misnomer. They turn a profit.

    The issue is that the BT Group have realised they need to spend money on broadband and on EE to keep their number one position and the best way to do that is stop spending money on sports rights.
  • CandyCandy Posts: 51
    Leon said:



    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately

    Here is another alternative history: Queen Victoria is allowed to inherit the throne of Hanover, which prevents the Prussians invading with their "blood and iron" unification of Germany.

    Germany remains a collection of cozy principalities, focused on making great music. WW1 never happens, and neither does WW2.

    Have you noticed that after unification, Germany stopped producing Bachs and Beethovens, and instead became very militaristic and now very industrial?

    Something similar happened to Russia after the Communist revolution. The land of the ballet, Tchaichovsky, Rachmaninov, Chechov and Tolstoy stopped producing any art of note.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,868
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    mwadams said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Nope.

    The tanks in WWI were arguably not as revolutionary as better assault tactics. The typical tank attack ran out of working tanks within a few miles.

    Read some actual accounts of the tank VCs - last tank working, on its own, getting surrounded by Germans, fights as a static pillbox until they die or escape on foot.
    I accept that early tanks were rubbish. But by 1939 they were good enough for Blitzkrieg

    That’s my point. Read my comment. We invented them first - if only we’d invented them earlier we could have made them war winners by the time WW1 came along
    We might also have developed the standard tactics of tank warfare before the battlefield became a quagmire which didn't help.

    I've often wondered what would have happened if there had never been the brief period when (horse) cavalry become an ineffective tool due to the invention of the machine gun, before motorized infantry, tanks, then helicopters, became the new cavalry. WWI and even the US Civil War might have been very different affairs.
    Good point on the US Civil War. One of the bloodiest wars, per capita, ever fought? Because of machine guns, primarily.

    That was a warning to Europe what a truly modernized, mechanized war between advanced nations would look like. The great failure, perhaps, was not preparing for that and developing new tactics to avoid appalling bloodshed (eg tanks). We had 60 years to think.

    Presumably the European powers didn’t think because they were all focused on easy wars against spear throwing natives in Africa, etc. So the horror of World War One becomes, ironically, the price of rampant imperialism

    History has a strange way of slowly but surely serving justice
    Defensive massed rifle fire was even more deadly.

    The British learned this the hard way from the Boer War. That's why we escaped with far fewer casualties than the French or Germans.

    The European powers learned the wrong lessons from the Boer war and the Russo Japanese war. They realised that rifle fire was deadly, but took the view that attacks that were pressed home with sufficient vigour, and sufficient willingness to take casualties, would eventually prevail.
    Yes - I guess we always use "invention of the machine gun" as a shorthand for a much more comprehensive set of developments in the ability to fire a large number of bullets, continuously, by a comparatively smaller number of defenders, and the lack of recognition of the tactical impact of those developments.
    Every Boer was at least a competent marksman, and their best snipers were deadly. They had a habit of shooting down British officers and couriers at 1,000 yards, something our own commanders thought terribly unsporting. A lot of military careers were destroyed in the early months of that war.
    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5
    Best war movies -

    1. Paths of Glory
    2. Threads
    3. Grave of the Fireflies
    4. Apocalypse Now
    5. The Deer Hunter
    Some amazing-sounding movies I’ve never even heard of. I’m making a list for my own reference

    Graves of the Fireflies
    The Way Ahead
    Angels One Five
    War Requiem

    ??!

    Coincidentally, talking of Great War movies, I watched the BBC 2014 version of Testament of Youth last night, for the first time. Deeply moving, really well done. You will weep
    Don't get Paths of Glory mixed up with Blades of Glory.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,508
    edited July 2021
    Leon said:



    Good list

    I’d put ‘1917’ in my top 5. It has a kind of hallucinatory genius. A masterpiece

    The first half hour of Saving Private Ryan is awesome, but the rest is mediocre

    The Deer Hunter is grueling but iconic and unforgettable

    Back when I was doing Set Top Boxes, we had a video test stream of the beach landing from Saving Private Ryan. I'd go into the test lab and see dozens of TVs showing a man looking around for his own arm and all the other chaos.

    (Those scenes are actually quite good for testing MPEG video decoding, as the scene changes rapidly. Flames and waves were also good, but infinitely more boring to watch. Although probably better for the soul than watching that beach scene hundreds of times ...)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,553

    Gary Lineker....I am stepping down from BT Sports presenting to spend more time with my family...

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-9842929/Former-England-striker-Gary-Lineker-joins-LaLigaTV-talent-line-leaving-BT-Sport.html

    Interesting that La Liga have gone for their own channel, while EPL just rolling over existing deals with Sky / BT / Amazon.

    Also La Liga have had their own channel for at least a season, you can get it via Premier Sports or Amazon.

    But it is silly to compare a dedicated channel for foreign rights and the deal for domestic rights.

    La Liga got ditched by Sky/moved to Eleven Sports which turned out to be a disaster for both Eleven and La Liga.
    The channel is part of La Liga president Javier Tebas' aim to move the league from an organiser of games to a global content provider. La Liga is the world's first football league to run its own television channel.[1]
    La Liga isn't a model for the Premier League to follow given the way the rights are sold by clubs and distributed.

    It won't work for the PL model.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,999

    Floater said:

    Is this new?

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1421047780617773067

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 39% (+1)
    LAB: 34% (=)
    GRN: 9% (+1)
    LDM: 8% (-1)

    Via
    @YouGov
    , 27-28 Jul.
    Changes w/ 20-21 Jul.

    I can't believe the Greens would get anywhere near 9% in a GE held tomorrow.
    I know they've increased numbers, but do they stand in enough places to get that much?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,586
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    mwadams said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Nope.

    The tanks in WWI were arguably not as revolutionary as better assault tactics. The typical tank attack ran out of working tanks within a few miles.

    Read some actual accounts of the tank VCs - last tank working, on its own, getting surrounded by Germans, fights as a static pillbox until they die or escape on foot.
    I accept that early tanks were rubbish. But by 1939 they were good enough for Blitzkrieg

    That’s my point. Read my comment. We invented them first - if only we’d invented them earlier we could have made them war winners by the time WW1 came along
    We might also have developed the standard tactics of tank warfare before the battlefield became a quagmire which didn't help.

    I've often wondered what would have happened if there had never been the brief period when (horse) cavalry become an ineffective tool due to the invention of the machine gun, before motorized infantry, tanks, then helicopters, became the new cavalry. WWI and even the US Civil War might have been very different affairs.
    Good point on the US Civil War. One of the bloodiest wars, per capita, ever fought? Because of machine guns, primarily.

    That was a warning to Europe what a truly modernized, mechanized war between advanced nations would look like. The great failure, perhaps, was not preparing for that and developing new tactics to avoid appalling bloodshed (eg tanks). We had 60 years to think.

    Presumably the European powers didn’t think because they were all focused on easy wars against spear throwing natives in Africa, etc. So the horror of World War One becomes, ironically, the price of rampant imperialism

    History has a strange way of slowly but surely serving justice
    Defensive massed rifle fire was even more deadly.

    The British learned this the hard way from the Boer War. That's why we escaped with far fewer casualties than the French or Germans.

    The European powers learned the wrong lessons from the Boer war and the Russo Japanese war. They realised that rifle fire was deadly, but took the view that attacks that were pressed home with sufficient vigour, and sufficient willingness to take casualties, would eventually prevail.
    Yes - I guess we always use "invention of the machine gun" as a shorthand for a much more comprehensive set of developments in the ability to fire a large number of bullets, continuously, by a comparatively smaller number of defenders, and the lack of recognition of the tactical impact of those developments.
    Every Boer was at least a competent marksman, and their best snipers were deadly. They had a habit of shooting down British officers and couriers at 1,000 yards, something our own commanders thought terribly unsporting. A lot of military careers were destroyed in the early months of that war.
    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5
    Best war movies -

    1. Paths of Glory
    2. Threads
    3. Grave of the Fireflies
    4. Apocalypse Now
    5. The Deer Hunter
    Some amazing-sounding movies I’ve never even heard of. I’m making a list for my own reference

    Graves of the Fireflies
    The Way Ahead
    Angels One Five
    War Requiem

    ??!

    Coincidentally, talking of Great War movies, I watched the BBC 2014 version of Testament of Youth last night, for the first time. Deeply moving, really well done. You will weep
    Ah, yes - the other one I forgot to mention is "Stalingrad" - a German war movie from ~1992/1993. It's brilliant, and my other half based a whole section of one of her Star Trek novels on it!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,117
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cricky lad in the 10km running set off like he desperately needs the toilet.

    I did 10,000 metres tuesday and thursday evening. Tuesday was a quick(ish) one for me and took ~ 53 and a half minutes, thursday just over an hour.
    Really amazing how fast these boys go.
    If my maths is right, the 10k WR is six and a bit miles, at 4’10” a mile.
    Slowest 10,000 metre olympic gold since 2000, probably the highest ever quality field too.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,868
    re China

    Oh for the days when the military budget was used instead to restore the Summer Palace.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,553
    If Gary Lineker really wanted a bumper pay packet he could have accepted Sky's numerous offers, most notably in 2011 when Keys and Gray were fired and in 2016 when Ed Chamberlain left.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    IshmaelZ said:

    Is this sturgeon being interviewed on r4?

    No the minister responsible in Scotland. The story before her was striking - a young man repeatedly failed by the Scottish state, then rescued when his father's despairing tweet was responded to by the Amy Winehouse Foundation in London who sorted out care for him.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,868

    mwadams said:

    TOPPING said:

    mwadams said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5

    Black Hawk Down
    Saving Private Ryan
    War Requiem
    Deer Hunter
    A Bridge Too Far

    (Apocalypse Now
    Full Metal Jacket
    Life & Death of Colonel Blimp
    Dunkirk
    The Hurt Locker)
    Angels One Five.
    Fantastic.
    In addition to that lot... The Way Ahead
    Embarrassed to say I haven't seen it.

    Will put it on my list now (Prime Video £3).
    You can also get the original "training film" version of it from the IWM.
    You should all get a free 30 day trial at the BFI film website and watch the full 9 hours of Shoah.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoah_(film)

    Not a war film as such, I admit, but a stunning piece of film making.
    It's been on my list for about 25years I really must get round to it now.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,786

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.
    How do you feel about the argument that creating a world of regional blocs just recreates the pre-WW1 situation?
    Some kind of war between China and the West seems almost inevitable, now. Just gotta hope it’s minor wars by proxy - like the USSR v USA - not an all-out clash in the Pacific
    The Americans would give them an absolute kicking and the Chinese know it.
    Depends what kind of war it is.

    All out nuclear war means mutually assured destruction. The globe in smoking ruins. No one wins.

    So presumably you mean one step down from that - a conventional all-theatre war, across the world? I imagine the Americans would ‘win’ that, but it would not be a walkover. China has many allies, now, as the world’s biggest trader, and China also has the bigger navy.

    But that is also unlikely because both sides would be scared

    My likely scenario is as @casino posits - a serious clash in the South China Sea over Taiwan. That seems borderline probable to me, within the decade. China could easily triumph
    I meant even in a limited theatre war such as Taiwan. Depends if US has the will to defend it, though I think they probably would. China cannot pour troops over the border like they did in Korea. It would be messy, but I still think the US will win any conventional type war by a country mile.
    That is not currently the view of the US.
    The US military like a reason to ask for more "resources". I imagine they will have war gamed it many times. It is not in their interest to suggest they would give the Chinese a kicking any more than it was in their interest to boast how they would against Saddam in Gulf War 1.
    China is not Saddam in Gulf War 1

    I think your view of easy American superiority is about 10-15 years out of date
    America is also more internally divided than it was. Would a serious conflict make it cohere or just fuel further division?
    Is it? The 2000 Election was a much closer affair than 2020.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    mwadams said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    mwadams said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Leon said:

    FPT

    Cookie said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    I must be mistaken #1

    I was assured that one of the few (only?) Brexit wins would be reduced salience of “immigration” as an issue.

    It is an itch that no amount of scratching will ever salve.
    I don't know whether you're talking about immigration or Brexit? I imagine both. Brexit discontent will be with us forever. The country's biggest folly and greatest shame.
    I meant immigration but Brexit too will never be over. I wouldn't say it was our biggest folly or greatest shame, though. Biggest folly would be stumbling into the disaster of WW1 I think, and greatest shame the Atlantic slave trade, IMHO, although there are many contenders especially on the shame front. (In the interests of balance and not doing down the country, would also point out we have a long list of achievements and things to be proud of).
    How would you suggest that Britain stayed out of WW1?

    I know the likes of Morley and Macdonald said it was feasible, but leaving aside treaty obligations do you really think Britain could have stayed out of a war that without our involvement would have led to the conquest of France and Belgium by a hostile power?
    Yes, I think our cultural idea of WW1 as a four-year long pointless blunder is possibly misplaced. It was a genuine civilisational clash, on which Britain was on the right side. We possibly could have stayed out, but it would have been to the shame of Britain had we done so and to the detriment of European history.
    I also think the common image of the generals us unthinking and uncaring buffoons could probably do with a bit of revision.
    This is, for me, an interesting area. I wrote my BA dissertation on the social effects of WW1 on the UK.

    Personally I think WW1 was a massive blunder, a continent wide failure of statecraft, a dick swinging contest between the various powers, envious of each other and splitting themselves into various blocs. That all came crashing down. This belief is the essence of my Remainerism - having read many, many personal accounts of soldiers from WW1 and 2, by far the lesser evil is subjecting ourselves to the EU, and binding ourselves so closely we would never fight European countries again, rather than risk inflicting the horrors of warfare on our populations once more. I'm sure many will not find that argument convincing.

    In military terms, many WW1 historians decry the 'Blackadder Effect', that has cemented the idea (that first emerged in the 60s with the 'Lions Led by Donkeys' idea) that the WW1 generals were callous, ruthless and incompetent, with no idea how to fight modern war. Debate continues, and will for evermore, between historians, but there is a revisionist bloc who argue that tactics did gradually develop (creeping barrages, improvements in the accuracy of artillery, etc, etc) that showed the generals could adapt tactically and did care about losses.

    I remain to be convinced personally. I struggle to get past the sheer scale of seemingly pointless loss. Every day on the western front the British and it's colonial allies suffered something like1500 casualties on average, called 'Trench Wastage'. Around a third of those will have been killed instantly, more will have succumbed later to their wounds. The scale of losses that were deemed acceptable seem incomprehensible now.
    The British did develop tanks. If only they’d arrived five years earlier we would have perfected them by 1915, crushed the Germans easily, and now everyone would be speaking English from Bonn to Brno (as well as speaking English everywhere else)

    Imagine a British Empire 3.0 that incorporated most of Europe AS WELL. No Nazism or Communism. Just wise, benign and perpetual rule of the entire globe from London. The world had no such luck, unfortunately
    Nope.

    The tanks in WWI were arguably not as revolutionary as better assault tactics. The typical tank attack ran out of working tanks within a few miles.

    Read some actual accounts of the tank VCs - last tank working, on its own, getting surrounded by Germans, fights as a static pillbox until they die or escape on foot.
    I accept that early tanks were rubbish. But by 1939 they were good enough for Blitzkrieg

    That’s my point. Read my comment. We invented them first - if only we’d invented them earlier we could have made them war winners by the time WW1 came along
    We might also have developed the standard tactics of tank warfare before the battlefield became a quagmire which didn't help.

    I've often wondered what would have happened if there had never been the brief period when (horse) cavalry become an ineffective tool due to the invention of the machine gun, before motorized infantry, tanks, then helicopters, became the new cavalry. WWI and even the US Civil War might have been very different affairs.
    Good point on the US Civil War. One of the bloodiest wars, per capita, ever fought? Because of machine guns, primarily.

    That was a warning to Europe what a truly modernized, mechanized war between advanced nations would look like. The great failure, perhaps, was not preparing for that and developing new tactics to avoid appalling bloodshed (eg tanks). We had 60 years to think.

    Presumably the European powers didn’t think because they were all focused on easy wars against spear throwing natives in Africa, etc. So the horror of World War One becomes, ironically, the price of rampant imperialism

    History has a strange way of slowly but surely serving justice
    Defensive massed rifle fire was even more deadly.

    The British learned this the hard way from the Boer War. That's why we escaped with far fewer casualties than the French or Germans.

    The European powers learned the wrong lessons from the Boer war and the Russo Japanese war. They realised that rifle fire was deadly, but took the view that attacks that were pressed home with sufficient vigour, and sufficient willingness to take casualties, would eventually prevail.
    Yes - I guess we always use "invention of the machine gun" as a shorthand for a much more comprehensive set of developments in the ability to fire a large number of bullets, continuously, by a comparatively smaller number of defenders, and the lack of recognition of the tactical impact of those developments.
    Every Boer was at least a competent marksman, and their best snipers were deadly. They had a habit of shooting down British officers and couriers at 1,000 yards, something our own commanders thought terribly unsporting. A lot of military careers were destroyed in the early months of that war.
    British riflemen were pretty good in the film ‘Zulu’. IIRC

    Incidentally, is that the best war movie ever made? Zulu? Certainly in my top 5
    Best war movies -

    1. Paths of Glory
    2. Threads
    3. Grave of the Fireflies
    4. Apocalypse Now
    5. The Deer Hunter
    Some amazing-sounding movies I’ve never even heard of. I’m making a list for my own reference

    Graves of the Fireflies
    The Way Ahead
    Angels One Five
    War Requiem

    ??!

    Coincidentally, talking of Great War movies, I watched the BBC 2014 version of Testament of Youth last night, for the first time. Deeply moving, really well done. You will weep
    Threads probably stretches it but it came out when I was 10 and even just the Radio Times cover scarred me for life. Genuinely the most terrifying thing I have ever seen.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,920
    edited July 2021

    That's not the reason he said he left BT Sport as he said at the time.

    La Liga matches take place at the weekend, his decision to leave BT Sport was so he could follow Leicester's European matches with his family during midweeks.
    I am sure it is also a total coincidence that BT Sports is in the financial doo doo and La Liga TV have probably offered him a bumper pay packet....same as when he was on Al Jazeera Sport.
    BT Sport aren't in financial doo doo, that's a misnomer. They turn a profit.

    The issue is that the BT Group have realised they need to spend money on broadband and on EE to keep their number one position and the best way to do that is stop spending money on sports rights.
    According to FT they have blown £2bn....and still makes no money. And sports rights continue to get more expensive and Amazon / Disney are keen to get involved and have massive pockets.

    https://www.ft.com/content/f6d30613-af0f-4720-b1bb-c8941bca10c0
This discussion has been closed.