I’m impressed at the knowledge of weather and climate modelling on this site. I think of myself as a pretty knowledgeable climatology enthusiast of long standing who typically despairs of the misapprehensions rife in the climate debate, yet here on a political betting site we’re getting informed discussion of the difference between equilibrium climate modelling and short term weather modelling at a level several steps above the crap you see even from the science correspondents of the major media outlets. Bravo. PB is truly a place of renaissance people.
There are a few on here who also frequent a certain weather related forum or two (in joke). There is a spectacularly amount of knowledge and analysis of the weather data available for free from many great posters. Not unlike the incredible knowledge and breadth on here. Genuinely. I do wonder that Main stream media doesn’t latch on to places like this more. I mean I know we have disagreements but some of the data analysis on here on many topics is world class.
Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park
One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc
God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK
*I have changed details
Lock him up.
Indeed!
In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.
Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.
It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.
What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.
I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.
The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.
And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
Nah, the real,blame lies with various govts that criminalise it.
Blaming the users but giving a free pass to the dealers is as bad as blaming the dealers and giving a free pass to the users.
People will take cocaine. People will supply cocaine.
The war on drugs is a joke. Legalise it.
Yep, one way or the other. The middle way clearly doesn’t work.
Either go down the Bangkok/Dubai/Singapore route of throwing the keys away, else legalise it and make tax money.
It’s happening more and more with marijuana. So,why not cocaine.
Otherwise you get pointless debates blaming users or dealers.
Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park
One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc
God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK
*I have changed details
Lock him up.
Indeed!
In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.
Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.
It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.
What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.
I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.
The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.
And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
Nah, the real,blame lies with various govts that criminalise it.
Blaming the users but giving a free pass to the dealers is as bad as blaming the dealers and giving a free pass to the users.
People will take cocaine. People will supply cocaine.
The war on drugs is a joke. Legalise it.
It doesn't work like that.
Druggies - especially ones who don't actually need cocaine - have made a decision to support a violent and illegal supply chain.
I didn''t give a free pass to the dealers. They - again especially ones who don't need to do it - are at least as scummy as the users.
I wonder if SeanT shopped his friend the career criminal? That's if the alleged story is more than fantasy.
Sure there's a case for legalisation, though much weaker with hard drugs, but that argument has not yet been won.
Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park
One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc
God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK
*I have changed details
Lock him up.
Indeed!
In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.
Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.
It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.
What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.
I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.
The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.
And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
Nah, the real,blame lies with various govts that criminalise it.
Blaming the users but giving a free pass to the dealers is as bad as blaming the dealers and giving a free pass to the users.
People will take cocaine. People will supply cocaine.
The war on drugs is a joke. Legalise it.
It doesn't work like that.
Druggies - especially ones who don't actually need cocaine - have made a decision to support a violent and illegal supply chain.
I didn''t give a free pass to the dealers. They - again especially ones who don't need to do it - are at least as scummy as the users.
I wonder if SeanT shopped his friend the career criminal? That's if the alleged story is more than fantasy.
The supply chain is only violent because its illegal.
Make it legal to produce and the violence stops. It also makes it safer because you know exactly what you're buying.
Everybody wins apart from the people who hate anyone having fun.
Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.
Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.
More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...
Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.
Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...
And yet they lead the polls by a large amount. I know.
My take on the big picture numbers is that three moves have happened since December 2019.
1 Most of the residual BXP vote has moved into the Conservative column (see Hartlepool). So C +2 say
2 A chunk of the Conservative 2019 vote has moved elsewhere, Lib or Lab (see Batley and Spen and Chesham and Amersham). C-4 Lab +4 say.
3 A chunk of the Labour 2019 vote has peeled off to explicit lefty parties (Hartlepool and Batley) or Greens (elsewhere) possibly because they're pining for Jez. Lab -4, Green +4.
The first of those effects looks pretty set in stone now. The second is the one that moves over time, according to perceived government competence.
The third is the interesting one. What's driving it, and can Labour do anything about it?
Somewhat disappointingly from my point of view as a Unionist you also need to have a movement from Scottish Labour to the SNP worth something like -2 across the UK as well. SLAB are not in a good place.
And SLab are the last bastion of the Union. Once they irreversibly fall, the Union falls.
Would SCon renaming themselves the Unionist Party have any discernible impact?
Er, no need. Cosnervative and Unionist Party already.
but everyone thinks of them as the Tories
I was thinking about explicitly renaming plus possibly splitting from the UK party. Aiming to hoover up slab votes from the other side
Hmm. If I were a SCUP MP and they threatened to split I'd get an English constituency asap. Or think about independence. Only way to get the top post, either way.
Forgive the edit: on this point specifically, surely the likelihood of the UK-level Tories ever electing a leader from a Scottish constituency again is slim-to-non-existent anyway? Firstly, they struggle to return that many Scottish MPs to begin with (and the Scottish party is therefore a minute fraction of the whole Westminster contingent); secondly, any UK Prime Minister in Scotland would by highly likely to fall victim to a successful attempt by the SNP to unseat them; and thirdly, it's debatable whether or not a large fraction of the English electorate would find the notion of Scottish leadership attractive in the modern political climate.
Speaking more generally, does it really matter what the Scottish Tories try to do to attract more support, or is it simply the case that the maximum ceiling of support for a right-leaning, pro-Union Scottish political movement is somewhere in the vicinity of 20-25%?
Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park
One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc
God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK
*I have changed details
Lock him up.
Indeed!
In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.
Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.
It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.
What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.
I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.
The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.
And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
Nah, the real,blame lies with various govts that criminalise it.
Blaming the users but giving a free pass to the dealers is as bad as blaming the dealers and giving a free pass to the users.
People will take cocaine. People will supply cocaine.
The war on drugs is a joke. Legalise it.
It doesn't work like that.
Druggies - especially ones who don't actually need cocaine - have made a decision to support a violent and illegal supply chain.
I didn''t give a free pass to the dealers. They - again especially ones who don't need to do it - are at least as scummy as the users.
I wonder if SeanT shopped his friend the career criminal? That's if the alleged story is more than fantasy.
The supply chain is only violent because its illegal.
Make it legal to produce and the violence stops. It also makes it safer because you know exactly what you're buying.
Everybody wins apart from the people who hate anyone having fun.
Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park
One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc
God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK
*I have changed details
Lock him up.
Indeed!
In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.
Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.
It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.
What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.
I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.
The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.
And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
Nah, the real,blame lies with various govts that criminalise it.
Blaming the users but giving a free pass to the dealers is as bad as blaming the dealers and giving a free pass to the users.
People will take cocaine. People will supply cocaine.
The war on drugs is a joke. Legalise it.
It doesn't work like that.
Druggies - especially ones who don't actually need cocaine - have made a decision to support a violent and illegal supply chain.
I didn''t give a free pass to the dealers. They - again especially ones who don't need to do it - are at least as scummy as the users.
I wonder if SeanT shopped his friend the career criminal? That's if the alleged story is more than fantasy.
The supply chain is only violent because its illegal.
Make it legal to produce and the violence stops. It also makes it safer because you know exactly what you're buying.
Everybody wins apart from the people who hate anyone having fun.
Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park
One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc
God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK
*I have changed details
Lock him up.
Indeed!
In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.
Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.
It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.
What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.
I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.
The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.
And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
Ethically sourced cocaine, I’ve seen it, it’s the future.
I'd rather a firm like Diageo sources it than drug dealers.
Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.
Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.
More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...
Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.
Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...
And yet they lead the polls by a large amount. I know.
My take on the big picture numbers is that three moves have happened since December 2019.
1 Most of the residual BXP vote has moved into the Conservative column (see Hartlepool). So C +2 say
2 A chunk of the Conservative 2019 vote has moved elsewhere, Lib or Lab (see Batley and Spen and Chesham and Amersham). C-4 Lab +4 say.
3 A chunk of the Labour 2019 vote has peeled off to explicit lefty parties (Hartlepool and Batley) or Greens (elsewhere) possibly because they're pining for Jez. Lab -4, Green +4.
The first of those effects looks pretty set in stone now. The second is the one that moves over time, according to perceived government competence.
The third is the interesting one. What's driving it, and can Labour do anything about it?
Somewhat disappointingly from my point of view as a Unionist you also need to have a movement from Scottish Labour to the SNP worth something like -2 across the UK as well. SLAB are not in a good place.
And SLab are the last bastion of the Union. Once they irreversibly fall, the Union falls.
Would SCon renaming themselves the Unionist Party have any discernible impact?
Er, no need. Cosnervative and Unionist Party already.
but everyone thinks of them as the Tories
I was thinking about explicitly renaming plus possibly splitting from the UK party. Aiming to hoover up slab votes from the other side
Hmm. If I were a SCUP MP and they threatened to split I'd get an English constituency asap. Or think about independence. Only way to get the top post, either way.
Forgive the edit: on this point specifically, surely the likelihood of the UK-level Tories ever electing a leader from a Scottish constituency again is slim-to-non-existent anyway? Firstly, they struggle to return that many Scottish MPs to begin with (and the Scottish party is therefore a minute fraction of the whole Westminster contingent); secondly, any UK Prime Minister in Scotland would by highly likely to fall victim to a successful attempt by the SNP to unseat them; and thirdly, it's debatable whether or not a large fraction of the English electorate would find the notion of Scottish leadership attractive in the modern political climate.
Speaking more generally, does it really matter what the Scottish Tories try to do to attract more support, or is it simply the case that the maximum ceiling of support for a right-leaning, pro-Union Scottish political movement is somewhere in the vicinity of 20-25%?
As I said earlier, to be a Unionist now is equivalent to being opposed to the sun rising in the east.
Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park
One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc
God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK
*I have changed details
Lock him up.
Indeed!
In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.
Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.
It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.
What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.
I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.
The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.
And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
Nah, the real,blame lies with various govts that criminalise it.
Blaming the users but giving a free pass to the dealers is as bad as blaming the dealers and giving a free pass to the users.
People will take cocaine. People will supply cocaine.
The war on drugs is a joke. Legalise it.
It doesn't work like that.
Druggies - especially ones who don't actually need cocaine - have made a decision to support a violent and illegal supply chain.
I didn''t give a free pass to the dealers. They - again especially ones who don't need to do it - are at least as scummy as the users.
I wonder if SeanT shopped his friend the career criminal? That's if the alleged story is more than fantasy.
Sure there's a case for legalisation, though much weaker with hard drugs, but that argument has not yet been won.
The ones who've ensured the supply chain is violent and illegal will be the ones who've ensured that the supply chain is illegal.
Legalise it, and it ceases to be illegal and violent.
Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park
One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc
God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK
*I have changed details
Lock him up.
Indeed!
In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.
Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.
It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.
What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.
I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.
The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.
And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
Nah, the real,blame lies with various govts that criminalise it.
Blaming the users but giving a free pass to the dealers is as bad as blaming the dealers and giving a free pass to the users.
People will take cocaine. People will supply cocaine.
The war on drugs is a joke. Legalise it.
It doesn't work like that.
Druggies - especially ones who don't actually need cocaine - have made a decision to support a violent and illegal supply chain.
I didn''t give a free pass to the dealers. They - again especially ones who don't need to do it - are at least as scummy as the users.
I wonder if SeanT shopped his friend the career criminal? That's if the alleged story is more than fantasy.
The supply chain is only violent because its illegal.
Make it legal to produce and the violence stops. It also makes it safer because you know exactly what you're buying.
Everybody wins apart from the people who hate anyone having fun.
Not really convinced that "make it legal; violence stops" entirely works.
It is another part of the balance.
Plenty of activities are legal, yet have gangster involvement.
And I think there is a not-insignificant difference between soft and hard drugs.
Difficult to credit, but it is four weeks and 21 minutes till the Premier League season kicks off. Are we ready for full stadiums across the country?
I think that depends critically on how high the wave of hospital admissions peaks, and whether this happens before the Government loses its nerve. By mid-August we could be anywhere between "thank Christ, the worst is over!" and a firebreak lockdown. Who knows?
Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.
Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.
More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...
Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.
Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...
And yet they lead the polls by a large amount. I know.
My take on the big picture numbers is that three moves have happened since December 2019.
1 Most of the residual BXP vote has moved into the Conservative column (see Hartlepool). So C +2 say
2 A chunk of the Conservative 2019 vote has moved elsewhere, Lib or Lab (see Batley and Spen and Chesham and Amersham). C-4 Lab +4 say.
3 A chunk of the Labour 2019 vote has peeled off to explicit lefty parties (Hartlepool and Batley) or Greens (elsewhere) possibly because they're pining for Jez. Lab -4, Green +4.
The first of those effects looks pretty set in stone now. The second is the one that moves over time, according to perceived government competence.
The third is the interesting one. What's driving it, and can Labour do anything about it?
Somewhat disappointingly from my point of view as a Unionist you also need to have a movement from Scottish Labour to the SNP worth something like -2 across the UK as well. SLAB are not in a good place.
And SLab are the last bastion of the Union. Once they irreversibly fall, the Union falls.
Would SCon renaming themselves the Unionist Party have any discernible impact?
Er, no need. Cosnervative and Unionist Party already.
but everyone thinks of them as the Tories
I was thinking about explicitly renaming plus possibly splitting from the UK party. Aiming to hoover up slab votes from the other side
Hmm. If I were a SCUP MP and they threatened to split I'd get an English constituency asap. Or think about independence. Only way to get the top post, either way. It didn't go well the last time that idea was tried, which is why Baroness-at-last Davidson got the leadership.
Also I wonder if you are possibly overlooking the presence of the [Ulster] Unionist movement - the point being that 'Unionist' is an ambiguous and slippery word in Scotland, above all in the Labour-voter-rich West Central Belt. Not much point in exchanging an image of lairdy tweeds for bowler hats and Ian Paisley's comrades.
One problem with our constitution, such as it is, are that people who have been leaders in devolved administrations are not considered as future party leaders. They have had proper executive responsibility, not sat in Westminster pontificating. Mark Drakeford and Andy Burnham should be leading candidates to be the next Labour prime minister candidate.
Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.
Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.
More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...
Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.
Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...
And yet they lead the polls by a large amount. I know.
My take on the big picture numbers is that three moves have happened since December 2019.
1 Most of the residual BXP vote has moved into the Conservative column (see Hartlepool). So C +2 say
2 A chunk of the Conservative 2019 vote has moved elsewhere, Lib or Lab (see Batley and Spen and Chesham and Amersham). C-4 Lab +4 say.
3 A chunk of the Labour 2019 vote has peeled off to explicit lefty parties (Hartlepool and Batley) or Greens (elsewhere) possibly because they're pining for Jez. Lab -4, Green +4.
The first of those effects looks pretty set in stone now. The second is the one that moves over time, according to perceived government competence.
The third is the interesting one. What's driving it, and can Labour do anything about it?
Somewhat disappointingly from my point of view as a Unionist you also need to have a movement from Scottish Labour to the SNP worth something like -2 across the UK as well. SLAB are not in a good place.
And SLab are the last bastion of the Union. Once they irreversibly fall, the Union falls.
Would SCon renaming themselves the Unionist Party have any discernible impact?
Er, no need. Cosnervative and Unionist Party already.
but everyone thinks of them as the Tories
I was thinking about explicitly renaming plus possibly splitting from the UK party. Aiming to hoover up slab votes from the other side
Hmm. If I were a SCUP MP and they threatened to split I'd get an English constituency asap. Or think about independence. Only way to get the top post, either way. It didn't go well the last time that idea was tried, which is why Baroness-at-last Davidson got the leadership.
Also I wonder if you are possibly overlooking the presence of the [Ulster] Unionist movement - the point being that 'Unionist' is an ambiguous and slippery word in Scotland, above all in the Labour-voter-rich West Central Belt. Not much point in exchanging an image of lairdy tweeds for bowler hats and Ian Paisley's comrades.
One problem with our constitution, such as it is, are that people who have been leaders in devolved administrations are not considered as future party leaders. They have had proper executive responsibility, not sat in Westminster pontificating. Mark Drakeford and Andy Burnham should be leading candidates to be the next Labour prime minister candidate.
To be fair a former Mayor of London was considered a future party leader for years before he became Prime Minister.
Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.
Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.
More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...
Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.
Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...
And yet they lead the polls by a large amount. I know.
My take on the big picture numbers is that three moves have happened since December 2019.
1 Most of the residual BXP vote has moved into the Conservative column (see Hartlepool). So C +2 say
2 A chunk of the Conservative 2019 vote has moved elsewhere, Lib or Lab (see Batley and Spen and Chesham and Amersham). C-4 Lab +4 say.
3 A chunk of the Labour 2019 vote has peeled off to explicit lefty parties (Hartlepool and Batley) or Greens (elsewhere) possibly because they're pining for Jez. Lab -4, Green +4.
The first of those effects looks pretty set in stone now. The second is the one that moves over time, according to perceived government competence.
The third is the interesting one. What's driving it, and can Labour do anything about it?
Somewhat disappointingly from my point of view as a Unionist you also need to have a movement from Scottish Labour to the SNP worth something like -2 across the UK as well. SLAB are not in a good place.
And SLab are the last bastion of the Union. Once they irreversibly fall, the Union falls.
Would SCon renaming themselves the Unionist Party have any discernible impact?
Er, no need. Cosnervative and Unionist Party already.
but everyone thinks of them as the Tories
I was thinking about explicitly renaming plus possibly splitting from the UK party. Aiming to hoover up slab votes from the other side
Hmm. If I were a SCUP MP and they threatened to split I'd get an English constituency asap. Or think about independence. Only way to get the top post, either way.
Forgive the edit: on this point specifically, surely the likelihood of the UK-level Tories ever electing a leader from a Scottish constituency again is slim-to-non-existent anyway? Firstly, they struggle to return that many Scottish MPs to begin with (and the Scottish party is therefore a minute fraction of the whole Westminster contingent); secondly, any UK Prime Minister in Scotland would by highly likely to fall victim to a successful attempt by the SNP to unseat them; and thirdly, it's debatable whether or not a large fraction of the English electorate would find the notion of Scottish leadership attractive in the modern political climate.
Speaking more generally, does it really matter what the Scottish Tories try to do to attract more support, or is it simply the case that the maximum ceiling of support for a right-leaning, pro-Union Scottish political movement is somewhere in the vicinity of 20-25%?
No problem with the snip!
If the Tories are serious about being the Union party they dare not downplay the chances of their Scottish MPs - more precisely, MPs for Scottish constituencies - being PM. After all, they have just sent a whacking great signal that they are doing the opposite, in abolishing EVEL (which had de facto prevented a MP for a Scottish constituency being PM).
Decapitation: like Ms Swinson? Scottish politics is split more ways than English seats, but I'm not sure if that makes Tory MPs more vulnerable. HYUFD is always assuring us that every Labour and LD voter wil vote patriotically when the crunch comes.
If the English won't vote for a Scottish or Welsh party leader of a British nationalist party - then it becomes an English nationalist party and the Union is dead.
Re support - i'd bump up the potential a little bit. IIRC Baroness Davidson in her commoner incarnation managed to get a bit better than that, but (not that either would thank me) she was a sort of rather superior version of Mr Johnson - whose own clown shtick really, really grates on a lot of otherwise impeccably conservative (small c) Scots. And she did make a critical contribution to at least one recent general election in the UK.
Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.
Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.
More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...
Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.
Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...
And yet they lead the polls by a large amount. I know.
My take on the big picture numbers is that three moves have happened since December 2019.
1 Most of the residual BXP vote has moved into the Conservative column (see Hartlepool). So C +2 say
2 A chunk of the Conservative 2019 vote has moved elsewhere, Lib or Lab (see Batley and Spen and Chesham and Amersham). C-4 Lab +4 say.
3 A chunk of the Labour 2019 vote has peeled off to explicit lefty parties (Hartlepool and Batley) or Greens (elsewhere) possibly because they're pining for Jez. Lab -4, Green +4.
The first of those effects looks pretty set in stone now. The second is the one that moves over time, according to perceived government competence.
The third is the interesting one. What's driving it, and can Labour do anything about it?
Somewhat disappointingly from my point of view as a Unionist you also need to have a movement from Scottish Labour to the SNP worth something like -2 across the UK as well. SLAB are not in a good place.
And SLab are the last bastion of the Union. Once they irreversibly fall, the Union falls.
Would SCon renaming themselves the Unionist Party have any discernible impact?
Er, no need. Cosnervative and Unionist Party already.
but everyone thinks of them as the Tories
I was thinking about explicitly renaming plus possibly splitting from the UK party. Aiming to hoover up slab votes from the other side
Hmm. If I were a SCUP MP and they threatened to split I'd get an English constituency asap. Or think about independence. Only way to get the top post, either way. It didn't go well the last time that idea was tried, which is why Baroness-at-last Davidson got the leadership.
Also I wonder if you are possibly overlooking the presence of the [Ulster] Unionist movement - the point being that 'Unionist' is an ambiguous and slippery word in Scotland, above all in the Labour-voter-rich West Central Belt. Not much point in exchanging an image of lairdy tweeds for bowler hats and Ian Paisley's comrades.
One problem with our constitution, such as it is, are that people who have been leaders in devolved administrations are not considered as future party leaders. They have had proper executive responsibility, not sat in Westminster pontificating. Mark Drakeford and Andy Burnham should be leading candidates to be the next Labour prime minister candidate.
Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park
One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc
God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK
*I have changed details
Lock him up.
Indeed!
In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.
Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.
It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.
What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.
I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.
The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.
And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
Ethically sourced cocaine, I’ve seen it, it’s the future.
I'd rather a firm like Diageo sources it than drug dealers.
So is it like "woke coke" then
“Woke coke” is possibly the funniest story of the year so far.
A bunch of dealers decided to hike prices by virtue signalling their product, with obviously no actual change in where it’s coming from. Kerr ching!
Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.
Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.
More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...
Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.
Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...
And yet they lead the polls by a large amount. I know.
My take on the big picture numbers is that three moves have happened since December 2019.
1 Most of the residual BXP vote has moved into the Conservative column (see Hartlepool). So C +2 say
2 A chunk of the Conservative 2019 vote has moved elsewhere, Lib or Lab (see Batley and Spen and Chesham and Amersham). C-4 Lab +4 say.
3 A chunk of the Labour 2019 vote has peeled off to explicit lefty parties (Hartlepool and Batley) or Greens (elsewhere) possibly because they're pining for Jez. Lab -4, Green +4.
The first of those effects looks pretty set in stone now. The second is the one that moves over time, according to perceived government competence.
The third is the interesting one. What's driving it, and can Labour do anything about it?
Somewhat disappointingly from my point of view as a Unionist you also need to have a movement from Scottish Labour to the SNP worth something like -2 across the UK as well. SLAB are not in a good place.
And SLab are the last bastion of the Union. Once they irreversibly fall, the Union falls.
Would SCon renaming themselves the Unionist Party have any discernible impact?
Er, no need. Cosnervative and Unionist Party already.
but everyone thinks of them as the Tories
I was thinking about explicitly renaming plus possibly splitting from the UK party. Aiming to hoover up slab votes from the other side
Hmm. If I were a SCUP MP and they threatened to split I'd get an English constituency asap. Or think about independence. Only way to get the top post, either way. It didn't go well the last time that idea was tried, which is why Baroness-at-last Davidson got the leadership.
Also I wonder if you are possibly overlooking the presence of the [Ulster] Unionist movement - the point being that 'Unionist' is an ambiguous and slippery word in Scotland, above all in the Labour-voter-rich West Central Belt. Not much point in exchanging an image of lairdy tweeds for bowler hats and Ian Paisley's comrades.
One problem with our constitution, such as it is, are that people who have been leaders in devolved administrations are not considered as future party leaders. They have had proper executive responsibility, not sat in Westminster pontificating. Mark Drakeford and Andy Burnham should be leading candidates to be the next Labour prime minister candidate.
Hmmmm...
1. Devolution hasn't been going that long in the grand scheme of things 2. Scotland and Northern Ireland aren't exactly fertile grounds for promoting UK national leaders, because of their particular political dynamics (Wales is potentially a different kettle of fish, but perhaps someone who becomes First Minister in Wales might simply be more interested in running Wales, anyway?) 3. OTOH, remind me, what happened to that bloke who was Mayor of London before Sadiq Khan?
Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park
One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc
God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK
*I have changed details
Lock him up.
Indeed!
In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.
Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.
It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.
What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.
I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.
The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.
And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
Nah, the real,blame lies with various govts that criminalise it.
Blaming the users but giving a free pass to the dealers is as bad as blaming the dealers and giving a free pass to the users.
People will take cocaine. People will supply cocaine.
The war on drugs is a joke. Legalise it.
It doesn't work like that.
Druggies - especially ones who don't actually need cocaine - have made a decision to support a violent and illegal supply chain.
I didn''t give a free pass to the dealers. They - again especially ones who don't need to do it - are at least as scummy as the users.
I wonder if SeanT shopped his friend the career criminal? That's if the alleged story is more than fantasy.
The supply chain is only violent because its illegal.
Make it legal to produce and the violence stops. It also makes it safer because you know exactly what you're buying.
Everybody wins apart from the people who hate anyone having fun.
Not really convinced that "make it legal; violence stops" entirely works.
It is another part of the balance.
Plenty of activities are legal, yet have gangster involvement.
And I think there is a not-insignificant difference between soft and hard drugs.
Yes but why do,legal activities have gangster involvement. Due to the high levels of taxes and duties.
Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park
One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc
God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK
*I have changed details
Lock him up.
Indeed!
In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.
Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.
It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.
What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.
I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.
The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.
And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
Nah, the real,blame lies with various govts that criminalise it.
Blaming the users but giving a free pass to the dealers is as bad as blaming the dealers and giving a free pass to the users.
People will take cocaine. People will supply cocaine.
The war on drugs is a joke. Legalise it.
It doesn't work like that.
Druggies - especially ones who don't actually need cocaine - have made a decision to support a violent and illegal supply chain.
I didn''t give a free pass to the dealers. They - again especially ones who don't need to do it - are at least as scummy as the users.
I wonder if SeanT shopped his friend the career criminal? That's if the alleged story is more than fantasy.
The supply chain is only violent because its illegal.
Make it legal to produce and the violence stops. It also makes it safer because you know exactly what you're buying.
Everybody wins apart from the people who hate anyone having fun.
Not really convinced that "make it legal; violence stops" entirely works.
It is another part of the balance.
Plenty of activities are legal, yet have gangster involvement.
And I think there is a not-insignificant difference between soft and hard drugs.
Yes but why do,legal activities have gangster involvement. Due to the high levels of taxes and duties.
Or cheap staff smuggled in (which is the same thing, really).
Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.
Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.
More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...
Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.
Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...
And yet they lead the polls by a large amount. I know.
My take on the big picture numbers is that three moves have happened since December 2019.
1 Most of the residual BXP vote has moved into the Conservative column (see Hartlepool). So C +2 say
2 A chunk of the Conservative 2019 vote has moved elsewhere, Lib or Lab (see Batley and Spen and Chesham and Amersham). C-4 Lab +4 say.
3 A chunk of the Labour 2019 vote has peeled off to explicit lefty parties (Hartlepool and Batley) or Greens (elsewhere) possibly because they're pining for Jez. Lab -4, Green +4.
The first of those effects looks pretty set in stone now. The second is the one that moves over time, according to perceived government competence.
The third is the interesting one. What's driving it, and can Labour do anything about it?
Somewhat disappointingly from my point of view as a Unionist you also need to have a movement from Scottish Labour to the SNP worth something like -2 across the UK as well. SLAB are not in a good place.
And SLab are the last bastion of the Union. Once they irreversibly fall, the Union falls.
Would SCon renaming themselves the Unionist Party have any discernible impact?
Er, no need. Cosnervative and Unionist Party already.
but everyone thinks of them as the Tories
I was thinking about explicitly renaming plus possibly splitting from the UK party. Aiming to hoover up slab votes from the other side
Hmm. If I were a SCUP MP and they threatened to split I'd get an English constituency asap. Or think about independence. Only way to get the top post, either way. It didn't go well the last time that idea was tried, which is why Baroness-at-last Davidson got the leadership.
Also I wonder if you are possibly overlooking the presence of the [Ulster] Unionist movement - the point being that 'Unionist' is an ambiguous and slippery word in Scotland, above all in the Labour-voter-rich West Central Belt. Not much point in exchanging an image of lairdy tweeds for bowler hats and Ian Paisley's comrades.
One problem with our constitution, such as it is, are that people who have been leaders in devolved administrations are not considered as future party leaders. They have had proper executive responsibility, not sat in Westminster pontificating. Mark Drakeford and Andy Burnham should be leading candidates to be the next Labour prime minister candidate.
To be fair a former Mayor of London was considered a future party leader for years before he became Prime Minister.
Yes he did it that way, but had to get back into Parliament and go through the usual route. We here so often "Andy Burnham can't be a candidate because he isn't in Parliament". He can stand at the next election and Labour can have a Leader in Parliament if the current leader isn't in it.
Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.
Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.
More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...
Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.
Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...
And yet they lead the polls by a large amount. I know.
My take on the big picture numbers is that three moves have happened since December 2019.
1 Most of the residual BXP vote has moved into the Conservative column (see Hartlepool). So C +2 say
2 A chunk of the Conservative 2019 vote has moved elsewhere, Lib or Lab (see Batley and Spen and Chesham and Amersham). C-4 Lab +4 say.
3 A chunk of the Labour 2019 vote has peeled off to explicit lefty parties (Hartlepool and Batley) or Greens (elsewhere) possibly because they're pining for Jez. Lab -4, Green +4.
The first of those effects looks pretty set in stone now. The second is the one that moves over time, according to perceived government competence.
The third is the interesting one. What's driving it, and can Labour do anything about it?
Somewhat disappointingly from my point of view as a Unionist you also need to have a movement from Scottish Labour to the SNP worth something like -2 across the UK as well. SLAB are not in a good place.
And SLab are the last bastion of the Union. Once they irreversibly fall, the Union falls.
Would SCon renaming themselves the Unionist Party have any discernible impact?
Er, no need. Cosnervative and Unionist Party already.
but everyone thinks of them as the Tories
I was thinking about explicitly renaming plus possibly splitting from the UK party. Aiming to hoover up slab votes from the other side
Hmm. If I were a SCUP MP and they threatened to split I'd get an English constituency asap. Or think about independence. Only way to get the top post, either way. It didn't go well the last time that idea was tried, which is why Baroness-at-last Davidson got the leadership.
Also I wonder if you are possibly overlooking the presence of the [Ulster] Unionist movement - the point being that 'Unionist' is an ambiguous and slippery word in Scotland, above all in the Labour-voter-rich West Central Belt. Not much point in exchanging an image of lairdy tweeds for bowler hats and Ian Paisley's comrades.
One problem with our constitution, such as it is, are that people who have been leaders in devolved administrations are not considered as future party leaders. They have had proper executive responsibility, not sat in Westminster pontificating. Mark Drakeford and Andy Burnham should be leading candidates to be the next Labour prime minister candidate.
To be fair a former Mayor of London was considered a future party leader for years before he became Prime Minister.
Yes he did it that way, but had to get back into Parliament and go through the usual route. We here so often "Andy Burnham can't be a candidate because he isn't in Parliament". He can stand at the next election and Labour can have a Leader in Parliament if the current leader isn't in it.
But Burnham is favourite to be next Labour leader.
Interestingly Burnham seems to be only 25 at the markets to be next Prime Minister let alone next Labour Leader, so he's a contender for that too despite the fact it'd take not just him becoming Labour leader and winning an election, but Boris remaining PM until then too.
Burnham is considered 10x more likely to be next PM than Sunak was when I tipped him (!)
Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.
Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.
More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...
Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.
Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...
And yet they lead the polls by a large amount. I know.
My take on the big picture numbers is that three moves have happened since December 2019.
1 Most of the residual BXP vote has moved into the Conservative column (see Hartlepool). So C +2 say
2 A chunk of the Conservative 2019 vote has moved elsewhere, Lib or Lab (see Batley and Spen and Chesham and Amersham). C-4 Lab +4 say.
3 A chunk of the Labour 2019 vote has peeled off to explicit lefty parties (Hartlepool and Batley) or Greens (elsewhere) possibly because they're pining for Jez. Lab -4, Green +4.
The first of those effects looks pretty set in stone now. The second is the one that moves over time, according to perceived government competence.
The third is the interesting one. What's driving it, and can Labour do anything about it?
Somewhat disappointingly from my point of view as a Unionist you also need to have a movement from Scottish Labour to the SNP worth something like -2 across the UK as well. SLAB are not in a good place.
And SLab are the last bastion of the Union. Once they irreversibly fall, the Union falls.
Would SCon renaming themselves the Unionist Party have any discernible impact?
Er, no need. Cosnervative and Unionist Party already.
but everyone thinks of them as the Tories
I was thinking about explicitly renaming plus possibly splitting from the UK party. Aiming to hoover up slab votes from the other side
Hmm. If I were a SCUP MP and they threatened to split I'd get an English constituency asap. Or think about independence. Only way to get the top post, either way.
Forgive the edit: on this point specifically, surely the likelihood of the UK-level Tories ever electing a leader from a Scottish constituency again is slim-to-non-existent anyway? Firstly, they struggle to return that many Scottish MPs to begin with (and the Scottish party is therefore a minute fraction of the whole Westminster contingent); secondly, any UK Prime Minister in Scotland would by highly likely to fall victim to a successful attempt by the SNP to unseat them; and thirdly, it's debatable whether or not a large fraction of the English electorate would find the notion of Scottish leadership attractive in the modern political climate.
Speaking more generally, does it really matter what the Scottish Tories try to do to attract more support, or is it simply the case that the maximum ceiling of support for a right-leaning, pro-Union Scottish political movement is somewhere in the vicinity of 20-25%?
No problem with the snip!
If the Tories are serious about being the Union party they dare not downplay the chances of their Scottish MPs - more precisely, MPs for Scottish constituencies - being PM. After all, they have just sent a whacking great signal that they are doing the opposite, in abolishing EVEL (which had de facto prevented a MP for a Scottish constituency being PM).
Decapitation: like Ms Swinson? Scottish politics is split more ways than English seats, but I'm not sure if that makes Tory MPs more vulnerable. HYUFD is always assuring us that every Labour and LD voter wil vote patriotically when the crunch comes.
If the English won't vote for a Scottish or Welsh party leader of a British nationalist party - then it becomes an English nationalist party and the Union is dead.
Re support - i'd bump up the potential a little bit. IIRC Baroness Davidson in her commoner incarnation managed to get a bit better than that, but (not that either would thank me) she was a sort of rather superior version of Mr Johnson - whose own clown shtick really, really grates on a lot of otherwise impeccably conservative (small c) Scots. And she did make a critical contribution to at least one recent general election in the UK.
PS Further to these - we have different electorates of course - the public, the Tory party members as a whole and in Scotland, and the Parliamentary Party. Another complication of course. And all hurdles to be leapt.
Good to be able to go to the cinema and pub from Monday without a mask - cineworld and Weatherspoons not insisting on them. Will have to continue to avoid Uber and Waterstones it seems.
I may be in a minority (as usual) but I don't actually like "crowds" (and I'm not sure why anyone would).
As you all know, I enjoy horse racing and I enjoy going to the races but I would never attend a packed Royal Ascot, Cheltenham, Goodwood or whatever. Even 10,000 on a Saturday night at Lingfield is unpleasant - it's busy, there's nowhere to sit, hardly anywhere to stand, it's noisy, there's often quite unpleasant language and I find the whole thing totally off-putting.
Of late, racecourses have, as a result of Covid, been forced to operate with much lower attendances and, whisper it quietly, it's a much better experience for the racegoer. 3,000 at Lingfield means room to move, no horrendous queues for food, drink or the toilets, a pleasant, civilised, enjoyable atmosphere for all.
Why can't it be like that all the time? Our old friend, capitalism and the profit motive. Ramming thousands into racecourses, football grounds and other stadia makes money for the owners and operators. 10,000 sardines makes money, 3,000 salmon do not.
The same is true of transport systems - cram hundreds into a miserable travelling experience on a tube and it's profit for TfL - a half empty tube with seats for all and Sadiq is screaming for a bailout.
Pubs - they're the same - a two-thirds full pub with a nice buzz of conversation and everyone sitting down able to hear themselves and their friends versus a pub rammed to the rafters where you can't hear yourself think let alone get to the bar or the loo.
I'm getting old, I know, but the quality of life matters to me - I quite like some of the restrictions, not because I'm frightened or scared but because they make social life more comfortable, more enjoyable. I go out more because I know I'll enjoy it.
Perhaps less is more - I do think more is often less but again that's me.
Good to be able to go to the cinema and pub from Monday without a mask - cineworld and Weatherspoons not insisting on them. Will have to continue to avoid Uber and Waterstones it seems.
My local,craft beer places in Durham are not insisting on them either
Good to be able to go to the cinema and pub from Monday without a mask - cineworld and Weatherspoons not insisting on them. Will have to continue to avoid Uber and Waterstones it seems.
Uber requires masks in the US too - I think it's a liability issue, they don't want to be sued if one driver infects a dozen people and then someone dies.
Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park
One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc
God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK
*I have changed details
Lock him up.
Indeed!
In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.
Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.
It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.
What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.
I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.
The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.
And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
Nah, the real,blame lies with various govts that criminalise it.
Blaming the users but giving a free pass to the dealers is as bad as blaming the dealers and giving a free pass to the users.
People will take cocaine. People will supply cocaine.
The war on drugs is a joke. Legalise it.
It doesn't work like that.
Druggies - especially ones who don't actually need cocaine - have made a decision to support a violent and illegal supply chain.
I didn''t give a free pass to the dealers. They - again especially ones who don't need to do it - are at least as scummy as the users.
I wonder if SeanT shopped his friend the career criminal? That's if the alleged story is more than fantasy.
The supply chain is only violent because its illegal.
Make it legal to produce and the violence stops. It also makes it safer because you know exactly what you're buying.
Everybody wins apart from the people who hate anyone having fun.
Not really convinced that "make it legal; violence stops" entirely works.
It is another part of the balance.
Plenty of activities are legal, yet have gangster involvement.
And I think there is a not-insignificant difference between soft and hard drugs.
Why would Diageo buy from gangsters, when the could contract a company to grow coca plants for them?
'What's happened? From my inquiries, it seems that Boris Johnson has got cold feet but it was too late: he had boxed himself into a corner with all his promises of 19 July going ahead, being irrevocable etc.'
I may be in a minority (as usual) but I don't actually like "crowds" (and I'm not sure why anyone would).
As you all know, I enjoy horse racing and I enjoy going to the races but I would never attend a packed Royal Ascot, Cheltenham, Goodwood or whatever. Even 10,000 on a Saturday night at Lingfield is unpleasant - it's busy, there's nowhere to sit, hardly anywhere to stand, it's noisy, there's often quite unpleasant language and I find the whole thing totally off-putting.
Of late, racecourses have, as a result of Covid, been forced to operate with much lower attendances and, whisper it quietly, it's a much better experience for the racegoer. 3,000 at Lingfield means room to move, no horrendous queues for food, drink or the toilets, a pleasant, civilised, enjoyable atmosphere for all.
Why can't it be like that all the time? Our old friend, capitalism and the profit motive. Ramming thousands into racecourses, football grounds and other stadia makes money for the owners and operators. 10,000 sardines makes money, 3,000 salmon do not.
The same is true of transport systems - cram hundreds into a miserable travelling experience on a tube and it's profit for TfL - a half empty tube with seats for all and Sadiq is screaming for a bailout.
Pubs - they're the same - a two-thirds full pub with a nice buzz of conversation and everyone sitting down able to hear themselves and their friends versus a pub rammed to the rafters where you can't hear yourself think let alone get to the bar or the loo.
I'm getting old, I know, but the quality of life matters to me - I quite like some of the restrictions, not because I'm frightened or scared but because they make social life more comfortable, more enjoyable. I go out more because I know I'll enjoy it.
Perhaps less is more - I do think more is often less but again that's me.
i get your point and some nights i would agree . However love the atmosphere at Cheltenham which although rowdy is the best sporting spectator experience in the world to me . Combines all the good vices - gambling , drinking , eating junk etc
When I first worked with chip designers 25 or so years ago, I was surprised to find that the computers they needed to design and simulate their chips were rather powerful. Us software guys had fast computers, but where we might have 8 MB of memory they might have a GB RAM on a shared Sun system (from memory).
So you'd think that nowadays they could run their sims on a phone? No; for as chips have improved in power, so have the requirements to simulate them.
As an example, Mrs J needs 16-32 cores to run a simulation; it produces few gig of output data for analysis, and requires many gigs of memory. Simulations can take 12-24 hours to run. And she is not working on cutting-edge process nodes.
Sure I fully understand that the problems scale-up as well. My skepticism is due to the idea that "if we just had a faster computer we could solve it", all kinds of things were meant to be solved by previous generations of supercomputers but were not.
Others on here know much more about this than I do, but I guess it's not a case of 'solving' it. It's a case of getting more accurate predictions, and being able to run many different scenarios with small initial differences (perhaps monte carlo simulations?) to understand how small differences effect outcomes.
Probably wrong, though.
What we really need is a new cryptocurrency where the mining runs climate simulation data...
Given the costs of a single large extreme weather event, giving the effort some serious extra funding seems like a no brainier to me.
It is, of course, possible that a warmer climate might in the long run be something we can live with… but the consequences of climate change during the intervening years/centuries might be very painful indeed.
Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.
Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.
More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...
Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.
Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...
And yet they lead the polls by a large amount. I know.
My take on the big picture numbers is that three moves have happened since December 2019.
1 Most of the residual BXP vote has moved into the Conservative column (see Hartlepool). So C +2 say
2 A chunk of the Conservative 2019 vote has moved elsewhere, Lib or Lab (see Batley and Spen and Chesham and Amersham). C-4 Lab +4 say.
3 A chunk of the Labour 2019 vote has peeled off to explicit lefty parties (Hartlepool and Batley) or Greens (elsewhere) possibly because they're pining for Jez. Lab -4, Green +4.
The first of those effects looks pretty set in stone now. The second is the one that moves over time, according to perceived government competence.
The third is the interesting one. What's driving it, and can Labour do anything about it?
Somewhat disappointingly from my point of view as a Unionist you also need to have a movement from Scottish Labour to the SNP worth something like -2 across the UK as well. SLAB are not in a good place.
And SLab are the last bastion of the Union. Once they irreversibly fall, the Union falls.
Would SCon renaming themselves the Unionist Party have any discernible impact?
Er, no need. Cosnervative and Unionist Party already.
but everyone thinks of them as the Tories
I was thinking about explicitly renaming plus possibly splitting from the UK party. Aiming to hoover up slab votes from the other side
Hmm. If I were a SCUP MP and they threatened to split I'd get an English constituency asap. Or think about independence. Only way to get the top post, either way. It didn't go well the last time that idea was tried, which is why Baroness-at-last Davidson got the leadership.
Also I wonder if you are possibly overlooking the presence of the [Ulster] Unionist movement - the point being that 'Unionist' is an ambiguous and slippery word in Scotland, above all in the Labour-voter-rich West Central Belt. Not much point in exchanging an image of lairdy tweeds for bowler hats and Ian Paisley's comrades.
One problem with our constitution, such as it is, are that people who have been leaders in devolved administrations are not considered as future party leaders. They have had proper executive responsibility, not sat in Westminster pontificating. Mark Drakeford and Andy Burnham should be leading candidates to be the next Labour prime minister candidate.
I agree with the sentiment, but I don't see how that is a problem with the constitution. Lacking a president it's not unreasonable that such candidates find a path to the Commons to be PM, and nothing else is preventing them.
Mrs Stodge's team are in a state of semi-mutiny over the proposal by her firm to bring people back from next week.
It's been handled in a clumsy way even by the standards of the financial sector. Little or no consultation, draconian edicts by CEOs, ill thought-out rotas and grotesque inconsistencies.
Interestingly, it seems both West Berkshire and Cornwall are putting forward to sharply reduce their property portfolios.
I’m impressed at the knowledge of weather and climate modelling on this site. I think of myself as a pretty knowledgeable climatology enthusiast of long standing who typically despairs of the misapprehensions rife in the climate debate, yet here on a political betting site we’re getting informed discussion of the difference between equilibrium climate modelling and short term weather modelling at a level several steps above the crap you see even from the science correspondents of the major media outlets. Bravo. PB is truly a place of renaissance people.
Wait til we get on to the best restaurants in Tashkent, or the top ten extermination camps, worldwide
Broadly agree, but would point out that the "safe" alternatives are equally big gambles. Just different pay offs and costs, but all options from here are gambles, and none are likely to lead to as good a world as we had pre covid.
Reading the UK headlines today, it seems like the government is descending into an absolute shambles.
Ministers suggesting that France is going "Red" despite having a fraction of the out of control numbers in Britain, which is still theoretically planning to abandon all restrictions. Could anything infuriate a very large number of Tory voters more? Its almost as if Johnson wants to screw things up for his own party... Lib Dems gaining Guildford looks nailed on.
More to the point, Labour gaining Uxbridge and South Ruislip...
Seriously though, it really does seem like the Tories have lost the will to live, every day more spectacularly stupid decisions, from Covid to Sleaze and the corrosive acid of the Hard Brexit desolving more and more of the economy and indeed the very fabric of the Union.
Anyone quoting odds on whether Johnson will hold his own seat? If this tsumani gets going then 1997 could end up looking like a walk in the park...
And yet they lead the polls by a large amount. I know.
My take on the big picture numbers is that three moves have happened since December 2019.
1 Most of the residual BXP vote has moved into the Conservative column (see Hartlepool). So C +2 say
2 A chunk of the Conservative 2019 vote has moved elsewhere, Lib or Lab (see Batley and Spen and Chesham and Amersham). C-4 Lab +4 say.
3 A chunk of the Labour 2019 vote has peeled off to explicit lefty parties (Hartlepool and Batley) or Greens (elsewhere) possibly because they're pining for Jez. Lab -4, Green +4.
The first of those effects looks pretty set in stone now. The second is the one that moves over time, according to perceived government competence.
The third is the interesting one. What's driving it, and can Labour do anything about it?
Somewhat disappointingly from my point of view as a Unionist you also need to have a movement from Scottish Labour to the SNP worth something like -2 across the UK as well. SLAB are not in a good place.
And SLab are the last bastion of the Union. Once they irreversibly fall, the Union falls.
Would SCon renaming themselves the Unionist Party have any discernible impact?
Er, no need. Cosnervative and Unionist Party already.
but everyone thinks of them as the Tories
I was thinking about explicitly renaming plus possibly splitting from the UK party. Aiming to hoover up slab votes from the other side
Hmm. If I were a SCUP MP and they threatened to split I'd get an English constituency asap. Or think about independence. Only way to get the top post, either way.
Forgive the edit: on this point specifically, surely the likelihood of the UK-level Tories ever electing a leader from a Scottish constituency again is slim-to-non-existent anyway? Firstly, they struggle to return that many Scottish MPs to begin with (and the Scottish party is therefore a minute fraction of the whole Westminster contingent); secondly, any UK Prime Minister in Scotland would by highly likely to fall victim to a successful attempt by the SNP to unseat them; and thirdly, it's debatable whether or not a large fraction of the English electorate would find the notion of Scottish leadership attractive in the modern political climate.
Speaking more generally, does it really matter what the Scottish Tories try to do to attract more support, or is it simply the case that the maximum ceiling of support for a right-leaning, pro-Union Scottish political movement is somewhere in the vicinity of 20-25%?
No problem with the snip!
If the Tories are serious about being the Union party they dare not downplay the chances of their Scottish MPs - more precisely, MPs for Scottish constituencies - being PM. After all, they have just sent a whacking great signal that they are doing the opposite, in abolishing EVEL (which had de facto prevented a MP for a Scottish constituency being PM).
Decapitation: like Ms Swinson? Scottish politics is split more ways than English seats, but I'm not sure if that makes Tory MPs more vulnerable. HYUFD is always assuring us that every Labour and LD voter wil vote patriotically when the crunch comes.
If the English won't vote for a Scottish or Welsh party leader of a British nationalist party - then it becomes an English nationalist party and the Union is dead.
Re support - i'd bump up the potential a little bit. IIRC Baroness Davidson in her commoner incarnation managed to get a bit better than that, but (not that either would thank me) she was a sort of rather superior version of Mr Johnson - whose own clown shtick really, really grates on a lot of otherwise impeccably conservative (small c) Scots. And she did make a critical contribution to at least one recent general election in the UK.
Point 1 is well made. They're accused of not caring about the Union, of course, but I think that they must. The English Conservatives would be much more secure in power if it foundered.
I would've thought that a successful decapitation strategy was a very real threat. How many pro-Union but left-leaning voters, who might be prepared to back a backbench obscurity wearing a blue rosette, would be tempted to switch sides and give a PM a kicking? But perhaps I'm being too cynical (if that's possible in politics?)
I'm making a guess about how a leader from a non-English constituency would go down, but I may very well be wrong. Certainly a Scottish leader at the head of a pro-Union majority would generate less angst than an English leader reliant on votes from a separatist party in Scotland.
Looking back through recent results I noticed that the Tories have done slightly better (in vote share terms) in recent Westminster elections in Scotland than at Holyrood, though frankly this does them precious little good unless they do relatively well and the SNP does relatively badly (by which I mean winning at a canter, rather than galloping clear over the horizon,) at the same time. If Johnson were to be replaced by someone less unpopular and the SNP's record in Government were finally to begin to catch up with it, then the prospects of the Scottish Tories might begin to look a little less gloomy - but there seems previous little sign of either of these things happening in the near future.
For the most part they're not fully protected before they've refused the vaccine.
I give up. Even when faced with incontrovertible proof that this is false, you persist in repeating it because you are desperate for it to be true.
lol. It wasn't that long ago that Philip kept insisting we had reached "herd immunity", which we all wish were true, but anyone with the slightest modicum of scientific understanding knew to be nonsense.
We have, in over 90% of adults there are antibodies.
That's not to say there can't be any cases and as I said at the time the virus needs to fill in the gaps with antivaxxers naturally now. It is doing that exactly as I said.
Whilst defending you on the other argument I have to agree with Nigel on this. There is no evidence we have yet reached herd immunity. I wish it were the case but once has to be realistic.
The presence of antivodies is nothing to do with near-guaranteed protection (I do think that double vaccination is a reasonable assurance). A colleague in her 30s with one vaccination weeks ago and no underlying conditions is very seriously ill.
My daughter has had one jab and contracted the virus 10 days ago. Even given her age (20), fitness (good) and lack of underlying conditions it was still enough to make her pretty unwell although thankfully not enough for hospitalisation.
My sympathies but on the other hand there are sick oldies who have been infected but without any symptoms.
There are always outliers but the 'better than expected' ones don't get mentioned as often.
'What's happened? From my inquiries, it seems that Boris Johnson has got cold feet but it was too late: he had boxed himself into a corner with all his promises of 19 July going ahead, being irrevocable etc.'
Let's say he had turned round last Monday and proposed another 4-week delay.
Polls would likely have suggested a degree of public support and Labour votes would doubtless have carried any vote in the Commons but what would have been the size of any Conservative revolt - 100MPs, 125? The media onslaught would have been horrendous.
I think the mathematics guy Ward tweeted something along similar lines. Lot of unknowns, very hard decisions, but on balance probably the right risk strategy to weather exit wave now and not in autumn.
I think the mathematics guy Ward tweeted something along similar lines. Lot of unknowns, very hard decisions, but on balance probably the right risk strategy to weather exit wave now and not in autumn.
Yes, that’s exactly right, but you can’t admit that’s what you’re doing.
Broadly agree, but would point out that the "safe" alternatives are equally big gambles. Just different pay offs and costs, but all options from here are gambles, and none are likely to lead to as good a world as we had pre covid.
Yes, there's no safe bet path from here. And this is a legitimate gamble- though linking the timing to all schools being closed might have been wiser.
But, having made that decision, has the UK done what it reasonably can to minimise the downside? Is every possible vaccine dose in an arm somewhere? Have we sought out those who haven't made appointments for assertive outreach, or are we saying "serves them right"? Do we know what the fallback looks like if this turns out to be a mistake? Have we kept residual lowest-cost, reasonable gain controls, like masks on all public transport?
Until recently, the vaccination programme has been described as a race against the virus. If we no longer bother with interventions that keep R less than 1, we are abandoning the race. The virus will win. The question is, how big will its victory be?
We are in the unusual situation where we can make plausible cases for eliminating all controls, keeping the ones we have for some time, or increasing them. We have been in this situation for more than a month.
Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park
One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc
God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK
*I have changed details
Lock him up.
Indeed!
In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.
Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.
It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.
What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.
I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.
The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.
And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
Nah, the real,blame lies with various govts that criminalise it.
Blaming the users but giving a free pass to the dealers is as bad as blaming the dealers and giving a free pass to the users.
People will take cocaine. People will supply cocaine.
The war on drugs is a joke. Legalise it.
It doesn't work like that.
Druggies - especially ones who don't actually need cocaine - have made a decision to support a violent and illegal supply chain.
I didn''t give a free pass to the dealers. They - again especially ones who don't need to do it - are at least as scummy as the users.
I wonder if SeanT shopped his friend the career criminal? That's if the alleged story is more than fantasy.
Sure there's a case for legalisation, though much weaker with hard drugs, but that argument has not yet been won.
The ones who've ensured the supply chain is violent and illegal will be the ones who've ensured that the supply chain is illegal.
Legalise it, and it ceases to be illegal and violent.
That's a negative, sir. Freud got a lot of grief for the amount of violence and shit caused by his advocacy of cocaine and the consequent explosion of coke dens in Germany. It's a shit drug, legal or not
Mind you one of my top 1000 reasons for thinking Scott of the Antarctic was a pillock is that he died in a tent full of literally pounds of pharma grade morphine and cocaine but decided to peg out naturally like a Christian gent
I’m hoping it remains a decent leading indicator. It has been, generally, and especially in the last wave but with vaccines now there’s a different dynamic.
Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park
One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc
God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK
*I have changed details
Lock him up.
Indeed!
In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.
Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.
It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.
What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.
I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.
The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.
And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
Nah, the real,blame lies with various govts that criminalise it.
Blaming the users but giving a free pass to the dealers is as bad as blaming the dealers and giving a free pass to the users.
People will take cocaine. People will supply cocaine.
The war on drugs is a joke. Legalise it.
It doesn't work like that.
Druggies - especially ones who don't actually need cocaine - have made a decision to support a violent and illegal supply chain.
I didn''t give a free pass to the dealers. They - again especially ones who don't need to do it - are at least as scummy as the users.
I wonder if SeanT shopped his friend the career criminal? That's if the alleged story is more than fantasy.
Sure there's a case for legalisation, though much weaker with hard drugs, but that argument has not yet been won.
The ones who've ensured the supply chain is violent and illegal will be the ones who've ensured that the supply chain is illegal.
Legalise it, and it ceases to be illegal and violent.
Drug dealers are in it for the money. Move more towards a cashless society. Make large cash transactions illegal unless you have the receipts/bank statements to back it up. And introduce the Norwegian system/of everyone's tax returns being online - the dealers living in 6-bedroom mansions on the "profit" of one backstreet bar will soon become apparent.
I wonder what we should call the thing in between Amber and Red? Amber plus? Amber minus? Orange? Ochre?
Going abroad under current circumstances, unless it is urgent and unavoidable, is bonkers - but it really would aid the welfare of those foolhardy enough (unless they're able to afford and willing to risk the threat of quarantine) to make leisure trips regardless, if this hopeless Government were simply to say "do not go on foreign holidays." But it's much like this ridiculous pantomime with the masks, where they're doing away with mandates and then applauding train companies and other businesses if they impose mandates. Up the proverbial without a paddle.
The pre-Brexit euro-shackled pitifully eunuch Britain would never have had the cullions to do this.
Discuss
Everyone in the EU is doing their own stuff. Netherlands unlocked about a month ago and have since reversed. Denmark got close to what we are doing a couple of months ago. So the decision making process is at national govt level and there is little reason the UK couldnt have chosen this path.
The valid Brexit issue is we would be pretty unlikely to be as far ahead on the vaccinations in the counter factual.
Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park
One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc
God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK
*I have changed details
Lock him up.
Indeed!
In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.
Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.
It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.
What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.
I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.
The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.
And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
Ethically sourced cocaine, I’ve seen it, it’s the future.
I'd rather a firm like Diageo sources it than drug dealers.
So is it like "woke coke" then
“Woke coke” is possibly the funniest story of the year so far.
A bunch of dealers decided to hike prices by virtue signalling their product, with obviously no actual change in where it’s coming from. Kerr ching!
The pre-Brexit euro-shackled pitifully eunuch Britain would never have had the cullions to do this.
Discuss
Everyone in the EU is doing their own stuff. Netherlands unlocked about a month ago and have since reversed. Denmark got close to what we are doing a couple of months ago. So the decision making process is at national govt level and there is little reason the UK couldnt have chosen this path.
The valid Brexit issue is we would be pretty unlikely to be as far ahead on the vaccinations in the counter factual.
Pagel told Sky viewers earlier that literally no one else in the world was doing anything like us.
Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park
One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc
God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK
*I have changed details
Lock him up.
Indeed!
In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.
Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.
It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.
What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.
I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.
The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.
And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
Nah, the real,blame lies with various govts that criminalise it.
Blaming the users but giving a free pass to the dealers is as bad as blaming the dealers and giving a free pass to the users.
People will take cocaine. People will supply cocaine.
The war on drugs is a joke. Legalise it.
It doesn't work like that.
Druggies - especially ones who don't actually need cocaine - have made a decision to support a violent and illegal supply chain.
I didn''t give a free pass to the dealers. They - again especially ones who don't need to do it - are at least as scummy as the users.
I wonder if SeanT shopped his friend the career criminal? That's if the alleged story is more than fantasy.
Sure there's a case for legalisation, though much weaker with hard drugs, but that argument has not yet been won.
The ones who've ensured the supply chain is violent and illegal will be the ones who've ensured that the supply chain is illegal.
Legalise it, and it ceases to be illegal and violent.
Drug dealers are in it for the money. Move more towards a cashless society. Make large cash transactions illegal unless you have the receipts/bank statements to back it up. And introduce the Norwegian system/of everyone's tax returns being online - the dealers living in 6-bedroom mansions on the "profit" of one backstreet bar will soon become apparent.
The sun is long and warm. I have a fine glass of Chateauneuf du Pape, an excellent seafood risotto, some vaguely diverting golf on the TV (crowds! sport! not football with crackheads!) and the weekend looks set fair
Maybe this is slowly ending, despite the headlines
Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park
One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc
God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK
*I have changed details
Lock him up.
Indeed!
In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.
Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.
It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.
What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.
I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.
The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.
And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
Nah, the real,blame lies with various govts that criminalise it.
Blaming the users but giving a free pass to the dealers is as bad as blaming the dealers and giving a free pass to the users.
People will take cocaine. People will supply cocaine.
The war on drugs is a joke. Legalise it.
It doesn't work like that.
Druggies - especially ones who don't actually need cocaine - have made a decision to support a violent and illegal supply chain.
I didn''t give a free pass to the dealers. They - again especially ones who don't need to do it - are at least as scummy as the users.
I wonder if SeanT shopped his friend the career criminal? That's if the alleged story is more than fantasy.
Sure there's a case for legalisation, though much weaker with hard drugs, but that argument has not yet been won.
The ones who've ensured the supply chain is violent and illegal will be the ones who've ensured that the supply chain is illegal.
Legalise it, and it ceases to be illegal and violent.
Drug dealers are in it for the money. Move more towards a cashless society. Make large cash transactions illegal unless you have the receipts/bank statements to back it up. And introduce the Norwegian system/of everyone's tax returns being online - the dealers living in 6-bedroom mansions on the "profit" of one backstreet bar will soon become apparent.
Yes thats it a couple of percent of people are bad apples so lets affect the other 98% that arent by abolishing cash. There are plenty of reasons to keep cash the ability to not let the government what you spend money on being one of them.
Here's a thought, perhaps people shouldn't be going on holiday in the middle of a pandemic? Mad, I know.
Fuck em. Take holidays. I did
The virus will never be *gone*
If you can live with the various hoops you have to go through that's okay. What bugs me is the constant moaning (mainly from the media to be fair) about the rapid changes in the regs.
re header: Yes I think evens is about right and that makes it a ridiculous political gamble. However the treasury are clearly worried and saying things quietly that have forced Boris into this.
Let's hope Boris continues to be a bit lucky - in this at least.
I'm wondering if this increasingly complex and constantly shifting pattern of rules is actually the Government's preferred method of prohibiting foreign travel?
You don't simply kill it off, you create about 63 different alert levels, shift from one random level to another at unpredictable times for every individual country, and leave travellers, travel agents, insurers, airlines and everyone else entirely clueless as to what the rules are each day and what they're meant to do to comply with them. Not to mention the fact that your destination being suddenly shifted into one of the variety of higher levels (Red, Ultramarine, Beige, Burnt Sienna, Violet or Black) whilst you are actually abroad means that you have 24 hours to get home, or you have to pay for some species of accommodation for two weeks upon return. Usually at an airport hotel, except for Violet (where it's a suite in Claridges for three weeks,) or Burnt Sienna (where you don't pay at all, but instead receive a six month custodial prison sentence.)
Thus, travel is still allowed in theory but is rendered impossible in practice, and Boris Johnson is spared having to call a press conference where he cancels everyone's sunshine holidays.
Here's a thought, perhaps people shouldn't be going on holiday in the middle of a pandemic? Mad, I know.
Fuck em. Take holidays. I did
The virus will never be *gone*
If you can live with the various hoops you have to go through that's okay. What bugs me is the constant moaning (mainly from the media to be fair) about the rapid changes in the regs.
It is a pain, but I did it.
I think it added about £250 to the cost of my working holibobs in Majorca. On the other hand hotels are half price and restaurants are desperate - you can get bargains. Likewise airports are a bit chaotic but some notorious queues have disappeared. Maybe it evens out
I see absolutely no problem with taking a holiday if you follow the rules and do the tests. That's what they are there for
I'm wondering if this increasingly complex and constantly shifting pattern of rules is actually the Government's preferred method of prohibiting foreign travel?
You don't simply kill it off, you create about 63 different alert levels, shift from one random level to another at unpredictable times for every individual country, and leave travellers, travel agents, insurers, airlines and everyone else entirely clueless as to what the rules are each day and what they're meant to do to comply with them. Not to mention the fact that your destination being suddenly shifted into one of the variety of higher levels (Red, Ultramarine, Beige, Burnt Sienna, Violet or Black) whilst you are actually abroad means that you have 24 hours to get home, or you have to pay for some species of accommodation for two weeks upon return. Usually at an airport hotel, except for Violet (where it's a suite in Claridges for three weeks,) or Burnt Sienna (where you don't pay at all, but instead receive a six month custodial prison sentence.)
Thus, travel is still allowed in theory but is rendered impossible in practice, and Boris Johnson is spared having to call a press conference where he cancels everyone's sunshine holidays.
The changes to travel to/from France is being applied immediately, no grace period. That's how these things (especially India) should have been introduced in the first place.
Edit: ah, no, I misread... there is a grace period (until Monday). Why do they make the same mistake over and over?
Here's a thought, perhaps people shouldn't be going on holiday in the middle of a pandemic? Mad, I know.
Fuck em. Take holidays. I did
The virus will never be *gone*
If you can live with the various hoops you have to go through that's okay. What bugs me is the constant moaning (mainly from the media to be fair) about the rapid changes in the regs.
It is a pain, but I did it.
I think it added about £250 to the cost of my working holibobs in Majorca. On the other hand hotels are half price and restaurants are desperate - you can get bargains. Likewise airports are a bit chaotic but some notorious queues have disappeared. Maybe it evens out
I see absolutely no problem with taking a holiday if you follow the rules and do the tests. That's what they are there for
You would concede though that you very slightly added to the chance that the vaccine might spread by doing so though I presume?
Personally I am choosing not to travel. Killing me. However I'd be uncomfortable if I found myself in foreign clmes in much the same I'm now uncomfortable at home. Holidays aren't about uncomfortable. I plan to save the enjoyment for the future.
Just had one of the most extraordinary drinks of my life. Under a tree in Green Park
One of my oldest friends, dating back almost 4 decades, who nearly died of Covid last year, revealed that his fairly unexceptional Chelsea* life - married young, then got ill, and got disability benefit to support his wife and kids - has been a total lie, and all this time he has been a drug dealer to the stars. Class A, supermodels, etc
God bless my friends, who can still turn tricks like this, THEY ROCK
*I have changed details
Lock him up.
Indeed!
In Gothenburg (pop. about 580,000) the police have recently identified and charged 745 buyers of cocaine, with a further 660 under investigation. Most of these people are well-off, white middle class family folk. They are going to prison, and social services will be getting involved in their children’s’ lives. In other words a shocking tragedy for thousands of affected people.
Imagine if the London police were similarly proactive. Several government ministers would be dragged off to court, and tens of thousands of middle class families devastated.
It is easy to blame the dealers, but the real evil bastards are the smug shits buying the stuff and getting off scot-free.
In full agreement with Stuart Dickson for once! Wonders will never cease.
What scummy people, thinking they are alright because they are well off.
I met this culture in a couple of city banks back in the day.
The druggies did not even give a thought to the abuse, rape, and murder implicit in the supply chain they chose to help maintain to get their white powder.
And some of them want to lecture others about clothing supply chains and similar. Duh.
Ethically sourced cocaine, I’ve seen it, it’s the future.
I'd rather a firm like Diageo sources it than drug dealers.
So is it like "woke coke" then
“Woke coke” is possibly the funniest story of the year so far.
A bunch of dealers decided to hike prices by virtue signalling their product, with obviously no actual change in where it’s coming from. Kerr ching!
I'm wondering if this increasingly complex and constantly shifting pattern of rules is actually the Government's preferred method of prohibiting foreign travel?
You don't simply kill it off, you create about 63 different alert levels, shift from one random level to another at unpredictable times for every individual country, and leave travellers, travel agents, insurers, airlines and everyone else entirely clueless as to what the rules are each day and what they're meant to do to comply with them. Not to mention the fact that your destination being suddenly shifted into one of the variety of higher levels (Red, Ultramarine, Beige, Burnt Sienna, Violet or Black) whilst you are actually abroad means that you have 24 hours to get home, or you have to pay for some species of accommodation for two weeks upon return. Usually at an airport hotel, except for Violet (where it's a suite in Claridges for three weeks,) or Burnt Sienna (where you don't pay at all, but instead receive a six month custodial prison sentence.)
Thus, travel is still allowed in theory but is rendered impossible in practice, and Boris Johnson is spared having to call a press conference where he cancels everyone's sunshine holidays.
The changes to travel to/from France is being applied immediately, no grace period. That's how these things (especially India) should have been introduced in the first place.
Edit: ah, no, I misread... there is a grace period (until Monday). Why do they make the same mistake over and over?
It is almost the exact reverse of the antipodean model. They won't let many of their own people back at all, for fear of the disease (unless, one seems to recall reading, you are very rich and can therefore afford the most exclusive quarantine hotels.) Our Government, having decided countries X, Y and Z must be subject to barriers because travellers from them are a danger to public health, then constructs its travel restrictions in such a way as to encourage as many people as possible to rush in as quickly as possible from those countries.
As with the stupid damned mask rules, if it's important to do something, do it properly. If it isn't, don't bother. This lot are always flailing around in the middle, bloated, impotent and useless, like so many beached whales.
Here's a thought, perhaps people shouldn't be going on holiday in the middle of a pandemic? Mad, I know.
Fuck em. Take holidays. I did
The virus will never be *gone*
If you can live with the various hoops you have to go through that's okay. What bugs me is the constant moaning (mainly from the media to be fair) about the rapid changes in the regs.
It is a pain, but I did it.
I think it added about £250 to the cost of my working holibobs in Majorca. On the other hand hotels are half price and restaurants are desperate - you can get bargains. Likewise airports are a bit chaotic but some notorious queues have disappeared. Maybe it evens out
I see absolutely no problem with taking a holiday if you follow the rules and do the tests. That's what they are there for
You would concede though that you very slightly added to the chance that the vaccine might spread by doing so though I presume?
Personally I am choosing not to travel. Killing me. However I'd be uncomfortable if I found myself in foreign clmes in much the same I'm now uncomfortable at home. Holidays aren't about uncomfortable. I plan to save the enjoyment for the future.
I travelled alone. I tested thrice
A PCR before - negative
An antigen two days before returning - negative
Another PCR after landing - negative
I must have been the safest possible traveller in the history of vacations. So, no, I don't think I added to the chance the "vaccine" - "virus"? - might spread.
We have to get a grip on the concept of "acceptable risk". Life from now on is going to be riskier. That's all there is to it. But we deal with acceptable risk all the time, when you walk the city street, climb in a car, embark on a plane journey, eat oysters. Etc
That’s so witty and funny the laughter guzzler, Bob Monkhouse, or the queen of satire, Marina Hyde, could have come up with it. I fear if I keep on laughing my sides will literally split.
Until recently, the vaccination programme has been described as a race against the virus. If we no longer bother with interventions that keep R less than 1, we are abandoning the race. The virus will win. The question is, how big will its victory be?
We are in the unusual situation where we can make plausible cases for eliminating all controls, keeping the ones we have for some time, or increasing them. We have been in this situation for more than a month.
The problem is Delta - somewhat to my surprise it looked as if the vaccines were holding Alpha. But with the R for Delta, only a Chinese style lockdown... *might* hold it.
So any measure short of that just flatten the curve. It will get where it is going, eventually... So what is the advantage of flattening the curve, if you don't think the hospitals will be overwhelmed?
Comments
It’s happening more and more with marijuana. So,why not cocaine.
Otherwise you get pointless debates blaming users or dealers.
Druggies - especially ones who don't actually need cocaine - have made a decision to support a violent and illegal supply chain.
I didn''t give a free pass to the dealers. They - again especially ones who don't need to do it - are at least as scummy as the users.
I wonder if SeanT shopped his friend the career criminal? That's if the alleged story is more than fantasy.
Sure there's a case for legalisation, though much weaker with hard drugs, but that argument has not yet been won.
Make it legal to produce and the violence stops. It also makes it safer because you know exactly what you're buying.
Everybody wins apart from the people who hate anyone having fun.
May revise my guess.
Speaking more generally, does it really matter what the Scottish Tories try to do to attract more support, or is it simply the case that the maximum ceiling of support for a right-leaning, pro-Union Scottish political movement is somewhere in the vicinity of 20-25%?
Are we ready for full stadiums across the country?
Legalise it, and it ceases to be illegal and violent.
It is another part of the balance.
Plenty of activities are legal, yet have gangster involvement.
And I think there is a not-insignificant difference between soft and hard drugs.
If the Tories are serious about being the Union party they dare not downplay the chances of their Scottish MPs - more precisely, MPs for Scottish constituencies - being PM. After all, they have just sent a whacking great signal that they are doing the opposite, in abolishing EVEL (which had de facto prevented a MP for a Scottish constituency being PM).
Decapitation: like Ms Swinson? Scottish politics is split more ways than English seats, but I'm not sure if that makes Tory MPs more vulnerable. HYUFD is always assuring us that every Labour and LD voter wil vote patriotically when the crunch comes.
If the English won't vote for a Scottish or Welsh party leader of a British nationalist party - then it becomes an English nationalist party and the Union is dead.
Re support - i'd bump up the potential a little bit. IIRC Baroness Davidson in her commoner incarnation managed to get a bit better than that, but (not that either would thank me) she was a sort of rather superior version of Mr Johnson - whose own clown shtick really, really grates on a lot of otherwise impeccably conservative (small c) Scots. And she did make a critical contribution to at least one recent general election in the UK.
A bunch of dealers decided to hike prices by virtue signalling their product, with obviously no actual change in where it’s coming from. Kerr ching!
1. Devolution hasn't been going that long in the grand scheme of things
2. Scotland and Northern Ireland aren't exactly fertile grounds for promoting UK national leaders, because of their particular political dynamics (Wales is potentially a different kettle of fish, but perhaps someone who becomes First Minister in Wales might simply be more interested in running Wales, anyway?)
3. OTOH, remind me, what happened to that bloke who was Mayor of London before Sadiq Khan?
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-labour-leader
So he's certainly considered a contender.
Congratulations to all those involved in developing, approving, and implementing vaccinations.
Burnham is considered 10x more likely to be next PM than Sunak was when I tipped him (!)
I may be in a minority (as usual) but I don't actually like "crowds" (and I'm not sure why anyone would).
As you all know, I enjoy horse racing and I enjoy going to the races but I would never attend a packed Royal Ascot, Cheltenham, Goodwood or whatever. Even 10,000 on a Saturday night at Lingfield is unpleasant - it's busy, there's nowhere to sit, hardly anywhere to stand, it's noisy, there's often quite unpleasant language and I find the whole thing totally off-putting.
Of late, racecourses have, as a result of Covid, been forced to operate with much lower attendances and, whisper it quietly, it's a much better experience for the racegoer. 3,000 at Lingfield means room to move, no horrendous queues for food, drink or the toilets, a pleasant, civilised, enjoyable atmosphere for all.
Why can't it be like that all the time? Our old friend, capitalism and the profit motive. Ramming thousands into racecourses, football grounds and other stadia makes money for the owners and operators. 10,000 sardines makes money, 3,000 salmon do not.
The same is true of transport systems - cram hundreds into a miserable travelling experience on a tube and it's profit for TfL - a half empty tube with seats for all and Sadiq is screaming for a bailout.
Pubs - they're the same - a two-thirds full pub with a nice buzz of conversation and everyone sitting down able to hear themselves and their friends versus a pub rammed to the rafters where you can't hear yourself think let alone get to the bar or the loo.
I'm getting old, I know, but the quality of life matters to me - I quite like some of the restrictions, not because I'm frightened or scared but because they make social life more comfortable, more enjoyable. I go out more because I know I'll enjoy it.
Perhaps less is more - I do think more is often less but again that's me.
https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1415787517576683532
We're considering whether we have the technological ability to reinstate" internet access in #Cuba, says
@POTUS
.
Data not dates...'What's happened? From my inquiries, it seems that Boris Johnson has got cold feet but it was too late: he had boxed himself into a corner with all his promises of 19 July going ahead, being irrevocable etc.'
✍️ Fraser Nelson
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-covid-freedom-day
With a straight face and everything.
It is, of course, possible that a warmer climate might in the long run be something we can live with… but the consequences of climate change during the intervening years/centuries might be very painful indeed.
It's been handled in a clumsy way even by the standards of the financial sector. Little or no consultation, draconian edicts by CEOs, ill thought-out rotas and grotesque inconsistencies.
Interestingly, it seems both West Berkshire and Cornwall are putting forward to sharply reduce their property portfolios.
The times they really are a changin'
But the lack of self awareness in just off the scale.
And why he’s always been treated by UK media as some kind of impartial pollster is utterly beyond me..
I would've thought that a successful decapitation strategy was a very real threat. How many pro-Union but left-leaning voters, who might be prepared to back a backbench obscurity wearing a blue rosette, would be tempted to switch sides and give a PM a kicking? But perhaps I'm being too cynical (if that's possible in politics?)
I'm making a guess about how a leader from a non-English constituency would go down, but I may very well be wrong. Certainly a Scottish leader at the head of a pro-Union majority would generate less angst than an English leader reliant on votes from a separatist party in Scotland.
Looking back through recent results I noticed that the Tories have done slightly better (in vote share terms) in recent Westminster elections in Scotland than at Holyrood, though frankly this does them precious little good unless they do relatively well and the SNP does relatively badly (by which I mean winning at a canter, rather than galloping clear over the horizon,) at the same time. If Johnson were to be replaced by someone less unpopular and the SNP's record in Government were finally to begin to catch up with it, then the prospects of the Scottish Tories might begin to look a little less gloomy - but there seems previous little sign of either of these things happening in the near future.
- All arrivals must self-isolate for 10-days (or 5 under Test to Release)
- Industry describe decision as a "hammer blow to consumer confidence"
#ttot #travel #France
https://twitter.com/benclatworthy/status/1416113868783464456
There are always outliers but the 'better than expected' ones don't get mentioned as often.
Polls would likely have suggested a degree of public support and Labour votes would doubtless have carried any vote in the Commons but what would have been the size of any Conservative revolt - 100MPs, 125? The media onslaught would have been horrendous.
Not what you aspire to as a populist.
France is not on the “red” list
Instead they’ve in effect invented a new category. Again. https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1416116382182297603/photo/1
Freedom Day !!!This means we now have a system of three tiers for travel, with separate rules for the double jabbed - which have now been split into two tiers
And different testing requirements for the tiers
https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1416116959721181185
https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
Hopefully it will continue.
But, having made that decision, has the UK done what it reasonably can to minimise the downside? Is every possible vaccine dose in an arm somewhere? Have we sought out those who haven't made appointments for assertive outreach, or are we saying "serves them right"? Do we know what the fallback looks like if this turns out to be a mistake? Have we kept residual lowest-cost, reasonable gain controls, like masks on all public transport?
The hell we have.
We are in the unusual situation where we can make plausible cases for eliminating all controls, keeping the ones we have for some time, or increasing them. We have been in this situation for more than a month.
Mind you one of my top 1000 reasons for thinking Scott of the Antarctic was a pillock is that he died in a tent full of literally pounds of pharma grade morphine and cocaine but decided to peg out naturally like a Christian gent
Discuss
Seems happy to sew confusion and throw the travel industry under the bus
Move more towards a cashless society.
Make large cash transactions illegal unless you have the receipts/bank statements to back it up.
And introduce the Norwegian system/of everyone's tax returns being online - the dealers living in 6-bedroom mansions on the "profit" of one backstreet bar will soon become apparent.
Going abroad under current circumstances, unless it is urgent and unavoidable, is bonkers - but it really would aid the welfare of those foolhardy enough (unless they're able to afford and willing to risk the threat of quarantine) to make leisure trips regardless, if this hopeless Government were simply to say "do not go on foreign holidays." But it's much like this ridiculous pantomime with the masks, where they're doing away with mandates and then applauding train companies and other businesses if they impose mandates. Up the proverbial without a paddle.
Probably true...
The valid Brexit issue is we would be pretty unlikely to be as far ahead on the vaccinations in the counter factual.
I grant you that if Ms May was Prime Minister then we'd probably not even start thinking about removing any restrictions until about 2024.
Talk about disinformation.
Two very Woke friends of mine have said rather unWoke things, to put it mildly, when discussing ethnic disparities in vaccination uptake
Sadly no ministers are available tonight to ask...
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1416121058646757383
Maybe this is slowly ending, despite the headlines
The virus will never be *gone*
Let's hope Boris continues to be a bit lucky - in this at least.
You don't simply kill it off, you create about 63 different alert levels, shift from one random level to another at unpredictable times for every individual country, and leave travellers, travel agents, insurers, airlines and everyone else entirely clueless as to what the rules are each day and what they're meant to do to comply with them. Not to mention the fact that your destination being suddenly shifted into one of the variety of higher levels (Red, Ultramarine, Beige, Burnt Sienna, Violet or Black) whilst you are actually abroad means that you have 24 hours to get home, or you have to pay for some species of accommodation for two weeks upon return. Usually at an airport hotel, except for Violet (where it's a suite in Claridges for three weeks,) or Burnt Sienna (where you don't pay at all, but instead receive a six month custodial prison sentence.)
Thus, travel is still allowed in theory but is rendered impossible in practice, and Boris Johnson is spared having to call a press conference where he cancels everyone's sunshine holidays.
I think it added about £250 to the cost of my working holibobs in Majorca. On the other hand hotels are half price and restaurants are desperate - you can get bargains. Likewise airports are a bit chaotic but some notorious queues have disappeared. Maybe it evens out
I see absolutely no problem with taking a holiday if you follow the rules and do the tests. That's what they are there for
Edit: ah, no, I misread... there is a grace period (until Monday). Why do they make the same mistake over and over?
Personally I am choosing not to travel. Killing me. However I'd be uncomfortable if I found myself in foreign clmes in much the same I'm now uncomfortable at home. Holidays aren't about uncomfortable. I plan to save the enjoyment for the future.
As with the stupid damned mask rules, if it's important to do something, do it properly. If it isn't, don't bother. This lot are always flailing around in the middle, bloated, impotent and useless, like so many beached whales.
A PCR before - negative
An antigen two days before returning - negative
Another PCR after landing - negative
I must have been the safest possible traveller in the history of vacations. So, no, I don't think I added to the chance the "vaccine" - "virus"? - might spread.
We have to get a grip on the concept of "acceptable risk". Life from now on is going to be riskier. That's all there is to it. But we deal with acceptable risk all the time, when you walk the city street, climb in a car, embark on a plane journey, eat oysters. Etc
So any measure short of that just flatten the curve. It will get where it is going, eventually... So what is the advantage of flattening the curve, if you don't think the hospitals will be overwhelmed?