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In the betting it’s about evens that BoJo will re-introduce restrictions by the end of the year – po
In the betting it’s about evens that BoJo will re-introduce restrictions by the end of the year – politicalbetting.com
One of the big asserions about July 19th is that this will go on being designated “Freedom Day” although the main effort thereafter will be to encourage us all to maintain the habits that we have all become used to. The big difference is that anybody who doesn’r want to follow this can do so without fear of penalty.
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However I've seen multiple comments today which say that if you wanted to create a mutant variant that could get around our current vaccines then opening things up while people aren't full vaccinated is the easiest way of doing it.
So many things are out of the government control that coukd effect the future e.g. All we need is for vaccine breakthrough to be a bit bigger than estimated or a new variant that has the same result and it is then back to some form of restrictions.
Evens seems a very good price when people in govt are already talking about Winter lockdowns.
Then you have risk of new variant...
And the fact that mandatory masks on public transport is basically a no-cost, easy option.
It would be a tremendous failure to reintroduce restrictions at this point and what would be the point? Previously we could have restrictions in order to buy time to vaccinate people, but now the vaccines rolled out what is the exit plan if we go back into restrictions?
It would be like deciding to reinvade Afghanistan.
But another lockdown would be humiliating and Boris will do his level best to avoid it.
If he's right he's succeeded and saying that kept people on board while the restrictions were dragged out in order to roll out vaccines.
If this gets reversed he's failed dismally and needs to go anyway, so whatever he said previously is moot anyway.
How many people are working from home there, I wonder?
"Haw! "I’m in charge, I’m the boss.” He's not even i/c a separate accounting unit.
Thge context of the story is interesting - he was slapped down trying to persuade London to lift the suspension of the Aberdeen 9 back in (the Aberdeen cooncillors who went full fat Unionist and hopped into bed with the Tories and Indepedents (not that kind) and were suspenced years ago).
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/3317392/weak-and-pathetic-anas-sarwar-blasted-by-ex-council-boss-over-aberdeen-nine-saga/ "
Mr Sarwar certainly seems to be doing his best to shore up the Union.
Its not over but its as over as its going to be.
Now we need to let nature take its course. If some antivaxxers die then that's their choice. If some vaccinated people do that's a shame but it will be at very low risk.
In any event, the contest for the championship is over.
By sometime in August by my reckoning cases will be falling (while they rise towards a September peak in the US). Almost all of the exit wave models I’ve seen show a significant wave now followed by little or no wave in the coming winter. I’ve no reason to doubt the logic. Unless we lock ourselves down now, either by Fiat or through personal behavioural responses.
If you're reasonably young, and reasonably healthy, and double-vaxxed then your chances of getting seriously ill even if infected are very very low.
Perez in 9th needs to be more of a team mate though, the Mercs could screw up his race playing the team game.
We're only on our third time of relaxing Coronavirus restrictions. Afghanistan not the best precedent for this.
In fact the SNP need a minority UK Labour government reliant on their support if they are ever to be allowed another independence referendum again
That's not likely, however it is still worth delaying your personal liaision with the Wuhan Lab Lurgy as the longer you wait, the better the treatments, the more superior our understanding of Long Covid, &c
Incidentally, is there any evidence that the vaccines are protective against Long Covid? We know they are very good at preventing hospitalisation and death, and also quite good at subduing transmission, but what about Long Covid?
I've read enough reports to believe LC is a thing and I really don't want it
Merc bringing their one big upgrade of the season to a GP where they only get one real practice session is obviously non-optimal, but I don't think will make that much difference over the season.
Sure, some people grow into the leadership role after they achieve the office of leader, but nothing in Anas’s background indicates the ruthlessness, determination and nous necessary to be a good leader. He has six months to prove himself. Twelve months tops. If he’s still a dud this time next year, the Union’s over.
Put it this way, if vaccine efficacy is 95% for protecting against death it doesn't mean that 5% of vaccinated people will die. It couldn't since 5% of people didn't die in the first place.
Though of course a minority Labour government offering devomax would be less likely to see a Yes vote in any indyref2 anyway
The one thing I could possibly see is some mandating of masks coming back in more limited circumstances - be interesting to see whether that would count. Excluding that, I'd put it under 50%, but not far enough under to tempt me.
If they decide to reintroduce self isolation then I think they are on a stepping stone to introducing other restrictions.
But I don't expect this. I expect us to rely on the vaccines alone.
"It is imperative to dispel any ambiguity about how vaccine efficacy shown in trials translates into protecting individuals and populations. The mRNA-based Pfizer1, 2 and Moderna3 vaccines were shown to have 94–95% efficacy in preventing symptomatic COVID-19, calculated as 100 × (1 minus the attack rate with vaccine divided by the attack rate with placebo).
"It means that in a population such as the one enrolled in the trials, with a cumulated COVID-19 attack rate over a period of 3 months of about 1% without a vaccine, we would expect roughly 0·05% of vaccinated people would get diseased. It does not mean that 95% of people are protected from disease with the vaccine—a general misconception of vaccine protection also found in a Lancet Infectious Diseases Editorial.
"In the examples used in the Editorial, those protected are those who would have become diseased with COVID-19 had they not been vaccinated. This distinction is all the more important as, although we know the risk reduction achieved by these vaccines under trial conditions, we do not know whether and how it could vary if the vaccines were deployed on populations with different exposures, transmission levels, and attack rates.
"Simple mathematics helps. If we vaccinated a population of 100 000 and protected 95% of them, that would leave 5000 individuals diseased over 3 months, which is almost the current overall COVID-19 case rate in the UK. Rather, a 95% vaccine efficacy means that instead of 1000 COVID-19 cases in a population of 100 000 without vaccine (from the placebo arm of the abovementioned trials, approximately 1% would be ill with COVID-19 and 99% would not) we would expect 50 cases (99·95% of the population is disease-free, at least for 3 months)."
"Accurate description of effects is not hair-splitting; it is much-needed exactness to avoid adding confusion to an extraordinarily complicated and tense scientific and societal debate around COVID-19 vaccines."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00075-X/fulltext
You’ll be on about “federalism” soon. Is Gogsie Broon funding your pension plan?
Post vaccine, AIUI, 95% of those who get Covid will not need hospital treatment but 5% still will of whom a very, very small number may die (probably of something else). Is that not what they mean when they say that the vaccine gives 95% protection from hospitalisation?
[But to be clear if masks are removed as a requirement on July 19 & then brought back in -> I think that counts as 'reintroduced']
Salmond realised that, hence he created Alba as a party ready to go for UDI if it got into power, you clearly have not
Anyway it certainly helps. And my take-away is: FFS get everyone vaxxed. We need to be like France, we need to start threatening people without jabs (unless they have medical exemptions). Certain jobs will need compulsory jabs and many human pleasures should require vaxports or tests
Unless the virus mutates into something neutral - like a cold - broad, massive and near-universal vaccination is our only road out
Where the vaccines definitely seem to help is that you seem a lot less likely to get LC in the first place because you are much less likely to get seriously ill. If you are unlucky, however, I think you are stuck with the consequences.
Only SLab can ever sufficiently regain electoral support from the SNP to stymie the independence movement. They are fast running out of competent legislators capable of leading such an ambitious project. Anas is their last hope, and it’s not looking good in his first months, losing seats in the May GE and hovering in the low teens in the polls.
As per @breeallegretti and @HarryYorke1
Some health figures in favour, but it's a massive call requiring ministerial agreement
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https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1416046961904455684
95% means this:
"a 95% vaccine efficacy means that instead of 1000 COVID-19 cases in a population of 100 000 without vaccine (from the placebo arm of the abovementioned trials, approximately 1% would be ill with COVID-19 and 99% would not) we would expect 50 cases (99·95% of the population is disease-free, at least for 3 months)."
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/07/pfizer-pushes-for-boosters-as-health-experts-say-theyre-unneeded-unethical/
https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0716/1235549-covid-figures-friday/
What I think is interesting, and relevant to the bet of this thread, is that they're talking about surge capacity for hospitals at the same time as continuing to relax restrictions.
The UK is not alone in reducing restrictions during the Delta wave after completing substantial numbers of vaccinations.
Jackie Baillie always had more bite, so to speak, but was always a bit tainted by her love of living on top of the nuke bases in the Clyde. Even so I'm mildly surprised she hasn't managed to win any of the leadership elections - heaven knows there have been plenty of chances.
Sturgeon by ruling out UDI has confirmed she will then do nothing about it as long as she keeps the perks of FM.
You have been had, at least MalcG has seen the writing on the wall and hence has gone to Alba
Boris Johnson's Scotland adviser claims £6k expenses for speaking six times in Lords last year
EXCLUSIVE: Lord McInnes will soon become a Special Advisor to Boris Johnson and is likely to play a key role in the Tories' plan to strengthen the Union.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnsons-scotland-adviser-claims-24542202.amp
95 efficacy means that of those who would have needed hospitalisation without a vaccine, only 5% of them still need hospitalisation. It does not mean 5% of those infected need it.
You're using all infections (or all people) as your denominator, but the denominator should be the people who would have needed hospitalisation if we didn't have a vaccine.
Think of it this way, you can split the population into three groups. One group would have never needed hospitalisation even without a vaccine, they still don't. Then of those who would have needed hospitalisation, 95% no longer do, 5% still do.
Does that make more sense?
Edit, whoops, seemed to have replied to the wrong post.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/jul/16/gb-news-pulls-guto-harri-off-air-taking-the-knee-row
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/vaccination-may-ease-symptoms-of-long-covid
Sources suggested he had come under pressure to dial down the focus on local reporting and free debate in favour of full-blooded culture war topics, so chose to resign.
So they clearly wish to go for Casino-Royale's type viewers. I wonder how many of them actually exist and are going to spend time watching TV to annoy themselves.
Its coming home, its come home, COVID coming home....
I don't know why the COVID dashboard now is so delayed on reporting hospital admissions.
49 deaths
717 admitted to hospital on Monday