I see covid passports for pubs otherwise known as the national id tracking system are back.
It's like a f*cking zombie that just will not die. Always coming back just when you thought it was down.
Won't work.
Industry won't support it.
Only the stupid or frit think covid passports are either necessary or a good idea.
Edit to add: it doesn't have the numbers in Parliament.
I'm sure we had posters on hear last March saying masks won't work, industry won't support it.
Personally, I have been looking forward to 'Freedom Day' but in the last week I have been surprised that virtually all my friends and contacts are very cautious about opening up.
Three reasons why it won't work:
1) Opportunity cost - it prevents the spur of the moment drink, visit to a club etc - this is where entertainment makes money
2) Practicalities - it is impossible to enforce, and laws that invite breach should not enter on to our statute books. I'm not sure if anyone here has participated in the covid event trials? Well I have. I haven't had both jabs yet, so I had to do a LFT. Well, I did one. And then I entered the result. Entering the result is in no way connected to the test. Getting a covid pass involves nothing more than saying you've had a negative test result. It is absolutely farcical.
3) The frit aren't going to be going out anyway. They'll be scared of their own shadow for months, if not years. The government need to lead, not follow a load of ignorant, uninformed people incapable of understanding that risk/reward is key to life itself.
1) No it doesn't. I'm wheeling past the pub, I fancy a pint, I show my NHS vaccine cert (it's on my phone), I'm in. What's the issue?
2) Depends on the implementation obv. What are 'laws that invite breach'? Seat belt laws? Speeding laws?
3) The government need to build confidence. Masks did that. Border controls did that but weren't implemented fast or fully enough. Covid vaccine checks could do that too.
So in short you want ID cards and to be like Australia which has thousands of its own citizens unable to return home.
Got it.
Bit of a logic fail there!
It is remarkable how people, faced with a choice of three evils, manage to convince themselves that putting their heads in the sand will somehow be better than choosing the least evil of the three.
It is just flipping unbelievable. He is a mixture of Harry Houdini and a greased piglet. He is barely human in his elusiveness. Nailing Boris is like trying to pin jelly to a wall.
Not really - he has the not insignificant constituency of the frightened on his side. We see in the polls continued support for restrictions and that to this observer translates into support for the Government during this continuing "crisis".
In times of fear, people rally to the Government. Oddly enough, by ending the crisis, there's a political risk for Johnson - the short term popularity boost of the end of restrictions versus the longer term restoration of political normality at which point we can begin to assess the true competence of the Government (and Opposition).
It is just flipping unbelievable. He is a mixture of Harry Houdini and a greased piglet. He is barely human in his elusiveness. Nailing Boris is like trying to pin jelly to a wall.
Not really - he has the not insignificant constituency of the frightened on his side. We see in the polls continued support for restrictions and that to this observer translates into support for the Government during this continuing "crisis".
In times of fear, people rally to the Government. Oddly enough, by ending the crisis, there's a political risk for Johnson - the short term popularity boost of the end of restrictions versus the longer term restoration of political normality at which point we can begin to assess the true competence of the Government (and Opposition).
Polling during WW2 suggests otherwise.
I don't know why or in what way you can conflate coronavirus with WW2 - please try harder.
Alternatively, come up with an argument yourself - I've never seen you make one.
Great catch, although it was very close indeed as to whether she was touching the ground before she jumped up in order to take the catch for the second time. I wonder whether the third umpire checked it.
I think there's an argument that she was sufficiently in control of the ball for the first catch to count. If she had caught it and thrown it up, she would have had it for less time.
I think that's factually incorrect as far as the laws of cricket are concerned. If you're about to topple over the boundary rope, you can't claim to be fully in control of the ball.
33.3 Making a catch
The act of making a catch shall start from the time when the ball first comes into contact with a fielder’s person and shall end when a fielder obtains complete control over both the ball and his/her own movement.
It is just flipping unbelievable. He is a mixture of Harry Houdini and a greased piglet. He is barely human in his elusiveness. Nailing Boris is like trying to pin jelly to a wall.
Not really - he has the not insignificant constituency of the frightened on his side. We see in the polls continued support for restrictions and that to this observer translates into support for the Government during this continuing "crisis".
In times of fear, people rally to the Government. Oddly enough, by ending the crisis, there's a political risk for Johnson - the short term popularity boost of the end of restrictions versus the longer term restoration of political normality at which point we can begin to assess the true competence of the Government (and Opposition).
Polling during WW2 suggests otherwise.
I don't know why or in what way you can conflate coronavirus with WW2 - please try harder.
Alternatively, come up with an argument yourself - I've never seen you make one.
I see covid passports for pubs otherwise known as the national id tracking system are back.
It's like a f*cking zombie that just will not die. Always coming back just when you thought it was down.
Won't work.
Industry won't support it.
Only the stupid or frit think covid passports are either necessary or a good idea.
Edit to add: it doesn't have the numbers in Parliament.
I'm sure we had posters on hear last March saying masks won't work, industry won't support it.
Personally, I have been looking forward to 'Freedom Day' but in the last week I have been surprised that virtually all my friends and contacts are very cautious about opening up.
Three reasons why it won't work:
1) Opportunity cost - it prevents the spur of the moment drink, visit to a club etc - this is where entertainment makes money
2) Practicalities - it is impossible to enforce, and laws that invite breach should not enter on to our statute books. I'm not sure if anyone here has participated in the covid event trials? Well I have. I haven't had both jabs yet, so I had to do a LFT. Well, I did one. And then I entered the result. Entering the result is in no way connected to the test. Getting a covid pass involves nothing more than saying you've had a negative test result. It is absolutely farcical.
3) The frit aren't going to be going out anyway. They'll be scared of their own shadow for months, if not years. The government need to lead, not follow a load of ignorant, uninformed people incapable of understanding that risk/reward is key to life itself.
1) No it doesn't. I'm wheeling past the pub, I fancy a pint, I show my NHS vaccine cert (it's on my phone), I'm in. What's the issue?
2) Depends on the implementation obv. What are 'laws that invite breach'? Seat belt laws? Speeding laws?
3) The government need to build confidence. Masks did that. Border controls did that but weren't implemented fast or fully enough. Covid vaccine checks could do that too.
So in short you want ID cards and to be like Australia which has thousands of its own citizens unable to return home.
Got it.
Bit of a logic fail there!
It is remarkable how people, faced with a choice of three evils, manage to convince themselves that putting their head in the sand will somehow be better than choosing the least evil of the three.
It's the bigger picture Richard. Once you have to prove by law who you are to do something which should be a matter of personal choice then there is no going back.
And close the borders? Again we look at Australia. A great article posted earlier about stranded citizens.
As I asked Foxy. Covid is not the flu. But we are now at the stage whereby it looks and behaves a lot like the flu. Would we be talking about these measures in a bad flu season?
SKS on the telly saying that the NHS app for pinging shouldn't be changed. Ie should remain pinging hundreds of thousands of people and telling them to self isolate for 10 days.
He really hasn't caught the mood of the nation, has he.
Perhaps Starmer is playing a long game. "Long" in this instance being around 3 weeks.
Johnson may have captured the zeitgeist. On the other hand he may have dropped a great big fat hairy b******. Time will tell.
A friend has 2 tickets in a corporate box for the England v Italy game on Sunday. He paid £3000 each, but he didn't realise when he bought them months ago that it was going to be the same day as his wedding! If you are interested, he is looking for someone to take his place...
It's at Leeds Registry Office, at 4pm. Her name is Sharon -- she's 5'4", about 8 stone, quite pretty, has her own income and is a really good cook!
A friend of mine, ages ago, managed to secure a ticket for the final at Wembley on Sunday. £300, including accommodation. However, the idiot has only just realised that this clashes with his wedding!
So, if anybody is interested in taking his place, could they let him know? It's at 4pm, Sunday, Burnley Registry Office. The bride's name is Brenda.
Aaaaand...they’re off.
Does 4pm really clash though? I wrongly thought kickoff would be late afternoon but its 8pm!
Plenty of time to get married, meal, few speeches then off to the bridal suite to watch the footy.
I see covid passports for pubs otherwise known as the national id tracking system are back.
It's like a f*cking zombie that just will not die. Always coming back just when you thought it was down.
Won't work.
Industry won't support it.
Only the stupid or frit think covid passports are either necessary or a good idea.
Edit to add: it doesn't have the numbers in Parliament.
I'm sure we had posters on hear last March saying masks won't work, industry won't support it.
Personally, I have been looking forward to 'Freedom Day' but in the last week I have been surprised that virtually all my friends and contacts are very cautious about opening up.
It's called brainwashing people with fear. Whereas a few years ago 60,000 people died in a flu epidemic and no-one even noticed.
Gareth Southgate moves so effortlessly from ‘woke’ to ‘gammon’. What a marvellous man. It’s coming home!
“I think there are historic things that we should be proud of," he said. "There are different aspects to it, but at heart I go back to the values that my parents gave me and treating people as you would want to be treated, and just respectful really.
"But also people have tried to invade us and we've had the courage to hold that back. You can't hide that some of the energy in the stadium against Germany was because of that. I never mentioned that to the players, but I know that's part of what that story was.
"We have so many things here that we should be proud of that we probably underestimate, that maybe if we were living in other countries we always see what's good about them, but we are always looking at the negatives of our own country.
"Yet we have got so much to be proud of. For an island our size, we've got an incredible influence on the world and we've got to keep that in a positive way."
Great catch, although it was very close indeed as to whether she was touching the ground before she jumped up in order to take the catch for the second time. I wonder whether the third umpire checked it.
I think there's an argument that she was sufficiently in control of the ball for the first catch to count. If she had caught it and thrown it up, she would have had it for less time.
I think that's factually incorrect as far as the laws of cricket are concerned. If you're about to topple over the boundary rope, you can't claim to be fully in control of the ball.
She didn't topple over the boundary, she held the catch and took two steps before going over. You and Philip may well be tight, but if so the flick back and dive were certainly OK.
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Cases up tenfold in six weeks. Admissions, ventilators and deaths all on the rise. Admissions doubled since June 25 for example.
SKS on the telly saying that the NHS app for pinging shouldn't be changed. Ie should remain pinging hundreds of thousands of people and telling them to self isolate for 10 days.
He really hasn't caught the mood of the nation, has he.
Perhaps Starmer is playing a long game. "Long" in this instance being around 3 weeks.
Johnson may have captured the zeitgeist. On the other hand he may have dropped a great big fat hairy b******. Time will tell.
Very true. But zeitgeist is also what people want. Rightly or wrongly. Just like they voted in the Cons last time round. Rightly or wrongly.
I see covid passports for pubs otherwise known as the national id tracking system are back.
It's like a f*cking zombie that just will not die. Always coming back just when you thought it was down.
Won't work.
Industry won't support it.
Only the stupid or frit think covid passports are either necessary or a good idea.
Edit to add: it doesn't have the numbers in Parliament.
I'm sure we had posters on hear last March saying masks won't work, industry won't support it.
Personally, I have been looking forward to 'Freedom Day' but in the last week I have been surprised that virtually all my friends and contacts are very cautious about opening up.
It's called brainwashing people with fear. Whereas a few years ago 60,000 people died in a flu epidemic and no-one even noticed.
If the reaction to Covid-19 had been the same as taken in 1968 (i.e., nothing), what do you think the death toll would have been?
Gareth Southgate moves so effortlessly from ‘woke’ to ‘gammon’. What a marvellous man. It’s coming home!
“I think there are historic things that we should be proud of," he said. "There are different aspects to it, but at heart I go back to the values that my parents gave me and treating people as you would want to be treated, and just respectful really.
"But also people have tried to invade us and we've had the courage to hold that back. You can't hide that some of the energy in the stadium against Germany was because of that. I never mentioned that to the players, but I know that's part of what that story was.
"We have so many things here that we should be proud of that we probably underestimate, that maybe if we were living in other countries we always see what's good about them, but we are always looking at the negatives of our own country.
"Yet we have got so much to be proud of. For an island our size, we've got an incredible influence on the world and we've got to keep that in a positive way."
Great catch, although it was very close indeed as to whether she was touching the ground before she jumped up in order to take the catch for the second time. I wonder whether the third umpire checked it.
I think there's an argument that she was sufficiently in control of the ball for the first catch to count. If she had caught it and thrown it up, she would have had it for less time.
I think that's factually incorrect as far as the laws of cricket are concerned. If you're about to topple over the boundary rope, you can't claim to be fully in control of the ball.
She didn't topple over the boundary, she held the catch and took two steps before going over. You and Philip may well be tight, but if so the flick back and dive were certainly OK.
They were, but I think the point was her momentum was carrying her over within a split second - it was two tiddly steps seeking to not step over, then realising that was impossible and so doing the toss up and dive. She would have toppled over as part of her movement otherwise, so not sufficiently in control as she couldn't come to a stop, so it wouldn't have counted if she had simply dropped it and claimed to have caught it. It would merely have saved a six.
It's the bigger picture Richard. Once you have to prove by law who you are to do something which should be a matter of personal choice then there is no going back.
Don't be silly. For a start you don't have to prove who you are any more than you do when you present a ticket to get into the theatre, let alone a passport to get into the Shard, or a photo ID for a youngster to get into a nightclub, or a bus pass with photo for a pensioner to get on a bus. What on earth do you think the alternative has been? Have you forgotten that we were confined to our homes and only allowed out under very limited circumstances for months? How on earth can being required to show you've been vaccinated - should you wish, entirely voluntarily, to go to a venue which would otherwise be closed completely, and had been closed completely for months - be regarded as a step too far in comparison to that?
And if you don't like it, don't go to the venue for a few weeks until we're in a better position with vaccination. No jackbooted bureaucrat is going to trouble you if you prefer to stay watching the TV or posting indignation on PB.
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Cases up tenfold in six weeks. Admissions, ventilators and deaths all on the rise. Admissions doubled since June 25 for example.
Doubled vs tenfold. Thanks for answering.
NHS bed occupancy at a 10 yr low although I appreciate that cases are a leading indicator.
SKS on the telly saying that the NHS app for pinging shouldn't be changed. Ie should remain pinging hundreds of thousands of people and telling them to self isolate for 10 days.
He really hasn't caught the mood of the nation, has he.
Delusional. He was onto something on Wednesday saying this is an issue, and now he's objecting to them addressing the issue he brought up on Wednesday instead of claiming credit in having got the government to move.
Snatching defeat from jaws of a rare victory.
It all depends Philip. If Johnson is right and vaccines are the magic bullet, all hail to the king, and everyone forgets what Starmer said. If Johnson is wrong and people start dying and the NHS struggles, Starmer is a soothsayer.
If I were a Boris fanboi, I would be quite concerned at the undercurrent of economic excrement apparently heading our way. Maybe we avoid it, probably not.
It's the bigger picture Richard. Once you have to prove by law who you are to do something which should be a matter of personal choice then there is no going back.
Don't be silly. For a start you don't have to prove who you are, any more than you do when you present a ticket to get into the theatre, let alone a passport to get into the Shard, or a photo ID for a youngster to get into a nightclub, or a bus pass with photo for a pensioner to get on a bus. What on earth do you think the alternative has been? Have you forgotten that we were confined to our homes and only allowed out under very limited circumstances for months? How on earth can being required to show you've been vaccinated - should you wish, entirely voluntarily, to go to a venue which would otherwise be closed completely, and had been closed completely for months - be regarded as a step too far in comparison to that?
And if you don't like it, don't go to the venue for a few weeks until we're in a better position with vaccination. No jackbooted bureaucrat is going to trouble you if you prefer to stay watching the TV or posting indignation on PB.
If a private institution wants to mandate vax passports then let them go for it. People will vote with their feet.
But not the government.
You have lost sight of proportionality. We are mostly vaxxed. The NHS is not at risk of being overwhelmed. We have unprecedented restrictions on our liberty. And people it seems including you are applauding those measures. Just to be safe.
SKS on the telly saying that the NHS app for pinging shouldn't be changed. Ie should remain pinging hundreds of thousands of people and telling them to self isolate for 10 days.
He really hasn't caught the mood of the nation, has he.
Perhaps Starmer is playing a long game. "Long" in this instance being around 3 weeks.
Johnson may have captured the zeitgeist. On the other hand he may have dropped a great big fat hairy b******. Time will tell.
Very true. But zeitgeist is also what people want. Rightly or wrongly. Just like they voted in the Cons last time round. Rightly or wrongly.
True. I am yet to decide whether Johnson's fault-free genius shines through or not this time. Unlike the PB fanbois, I really can't tell. I do hope they are right however.
SKS on the telly saying that the NHS app for pinging shouldn't be changed. Ie should remain pinging hundreds of thousands of people and telling them to self isolate for 10 days.
He really hasn't caught the mood of the nation, has he.
Delusional. He was onto something on Wednesday saying this is an issue, and now he's objecting to them addressing the issue he brought up on Wednesday instead of claiming credit in having got the government to move.
Snatching defeat from jaws of a rare victory.
It all depends Philip. If Johnson is right and vaccines are the magic bullet, all hail to the king, and everyone forgets what Starmer said.. If Johnson is wrong and people start dying and the NHS struggles, Starmer is a soothsayer.
If I were a Boris fanboi, I would be quite concerned at the undercurrent of economic excrement apparently heading our way. Maybe we avoid it, probably not.
If vaccines aren't the magic bullet what would you suggest?
Come on BJO, fair play. We are only 3.6 points adrift of the Tories. One last heave!
What numbers are behind those dramatic percentages John, that supports the narrative you are pushing? Just a drop of 319 votes one particular 2500 constituency where 24% turnout? Is that wholly because Starmer is deadly, or because popular Dr Nic wasn’t standing?
I’m trying to be polite to you here John, but you keep embarrassing yourself.
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Cases up tenfold in six weeks. Admissions, ventilators and deaths all on the rise. Admissions doubled since June 25 for example.
Doubled vs tenfold. Thanks for answering.
NHS bed occupancy at a 10 yr low although I appreciate that cases are a leading indicator.
Different time lines. Over 6 weeks, admissions have gone from 80 per day to 416. More or less fivefold compared to tenfold increase in cases.
If the SoS Health is right and we hit 100 000 cases per day, that will be a lot of admissions.
By all means argue that there is no alternative, but please do not deny the truth that there is going to be a lot of admissions in this wave.
SKS on the telly saying that the NHS app for pinging shouldn't be changed. Ie should remain pinging hundreds of thousands of people and telling them to self isolate for 10 days.
He really hasn't caught the mood of the nation, has he.
Delusional. He was onto something on Wednesday saying this is an issue, and now he's objecting to them addressing the issue he brought up on Wednesday instead of claiming credit in having got the government to move.
Snatching defeat from jaws of a rare victory.
It all depends Philip. If Johnson is right and vaccines are the magic bullet, all hail to the king, and everyone forgets what Starmer said. If Johnson is wrong and people start dying and the NHS struggles, Starmer is a soothsayer.
If I were a Boris fanboi, I would be quite concerned at the undercurrent of economic excrement apparently heading our way. Maybe we avoid it, probably not.
You're now also contradicting yourself. Vaccines may not work so follow SKS in maintaining restrictions. But the economy is fucked. Why do you think the economy is fucked?
Leaving aside the civil liberties arguments, the obvious reason why covid passports for pubs is a crazy idea is that it would be impossible to enforce without adding crippling costs to the pub industry themselves. Many pubs at the moment in my experience have completely abandoned the current requirement to check people in - whether it happens is purely down to the individual.
But Covid passports can only be enforced if pubs can be punished for not enforcing it. Which means employing staff/security to do nothing but spend their time checking people's covid status. And of course it is pretty easy for people to evade anyway - just borrow somebody else's.
Come on BJO, fair play. We are only 3.6 points adrift of the Tories. One last heave!
What numbers are behind those dramatic percentages John, that supports the narrative you are pushing? Just a drop of 319 votes one particular 2500 constituency where 24% turnout? Is that wholly because Starmer is deadly, or because popular Dr Nic wasn’t standing?
I’m trying to be polite to you here John, but you keep embarrassing yourself.
Are you talking to me or BJO? My tongue was firmly in my cheek.
SKS on the telly saying that the NHS app for pinging shouldn't be changed. Ie should remain pinging hundreds of thousands of people and telling them to self isolate for 10 days.
He really hasn't caught the mood of the nation, has he.
Delusional. He was onto something on Wednesday saying this is an issue, and now he's objecting to them addressing the issue he brought up on Wednesday instead of claiming credit in having got the government to move.
Snatching defeat from jaws of a rare victory.
It all depends Philip. If Johnson is right and vaccines are the magic bullet, all hail to the king, and everyone forgets what Starmer said. If Johnson is wrong and people start dying and the NHS struggles, Starmer is a soothsayer.
If I were a Boris fanboi, I would be quite concerned at the undercurrent of economic excrement apparently heading our way. Maybe we avoid it, probably not.
You're now also contradicting yourself. Vaccines may not work so follow SKS in maintaining restrictions. But the economy is fucked. Why do you think the economy is fucked?
If vaccines don't work we're screwed anyway. The evidence however is that they do. It's all very well going on about hospitalisations and deaths rising and being a lagging factor. That doesn't mean they are going to increase indefinitely to unmanageable levels. Just means that they haven't fully run into the vaccine ceiling yet. But then they're still very low compared to what we went through before.
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Cases up tenfold in six weeks. Admissions, ventilators and deaths all on the rise. Admissions doubled since June 25 for example.
Doubled vs tenfold. Thanks for answering.
NHS bed occupancy at a 10 yr low although I appreciate that cases are a leading indicator.
Different time lines. Over 6 weeks, admissions have gone from 80 per day to 416. More or less fivefold compared to tenfold increase in cases.
If the SoS Health is right and we hit 100 000 cases per day, that will be a lot of admissions.
By all means argue that there is no alternative, but please do not deny the truth that there is going to be a lot of admissions in this wave.
Hopefully when we get the official announcement, we get the modeling on predictions of hospitalisations vs cases.
Gareth Southgate moves so effortlessly from ‘woke’ to ‘gammon’. What a marvellous man. It’s coming home!
“I think there are historic things that we should be proud of," he said. "There are different aspects to it, but at heart I go back to the values that my parents gave me and treating people as you would want to be treated, and just respectful really.
"But also people have tried to invade us and we've had the courage to hold that back. You can't hide that some of the energy in the stadium against Germany was because of that. I never mentioned that to the players, but I know that's part of what that story was.
"We have so many things here that we should be proud of that we probably underestimate, that maybe if we were living in other countries we always see what's good about them, but we are always looking at the negatives of our own country.
"Yet we have got so much to be proud of. For an island our size, we've got an incredible influence on the world and we've got to keep that in a positive way."
Smart commercial move by Gareth. He has realised that the woke ex-footballer market is somewhat crowded at the moment (Lineker, Neville etc) so trying to muscle in is probably a waste of time. Far better to target the Gammon market which is far more underserved. A contract at the Mail or Telegraph awaits *
* plus a knighthood, and possible peerage, from BJ
It's the bigger picture Richard. Once you have to prove by law who you are to do something which should be a matter of personal choice then there is no going back.
Don't be silly. For a start you don't have to prove who you are, any more than you do when you present a ticket to get into the theatre, let alone a passport to get into the Shard, or a photo ID for a youngster to get into a nightclub, or a bus pass with photo for a pensioner to get on a bus. What on earth do you think the alternative has been? Have you forgotten that we were confined to our homes and only allowed out under very limited circumstances for months? How on earth can being required to show you've been vaccinated - should you wish, entirely voluntarily, to go to a venue which would otherwise be closed completely, and had been closed completely for months - be regarded as a step too far in comparison to that?
And if you don't like it, don't go to the venue for a few weeks until we're in a better position with vaccination. No jackbooted bureaucrat is going to trouble you if you prefer to stay watching the TV or posting indignation on PB.
If a private institution wants to mandate vax passports then let them go for it. People will vote with their feet.
But not the government.
You have lost sight of proportionality. We are mostly vaxxed. The NHS is not at risk of being overwhelmed. We have unprecedented restrictions on our liberty. And people it seems including you are applauding those measures. Just to be safe.
It's shocking.
No, my position is the diametric opposite, I want these places to be open. At the moment they are either closed completely, or operating under draconian social-distancing rules which mean they lose huge amounts of money. Why? Because the government is too frit, or too stupid, to admit that there is a massive difference in risk between allowing the vaccinated to congregate in these venues compared with the unvaccinated. So, for a given level of safety, we could have opened up more. As it is, because of various blunders the government has made, we're now faced with an unrealistic expectation that everything can be completely reopened safely. As a result the government is scrabbling, too late, to contain an unnecessarily severe third wave, whilst still not getting the full economic and other benefits that could have been obtained.
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Cases up tenfold in six weeks. Admissions, ventilators and deaths all on the rise. Admissions doubled since June 25 for example.
Doubled vs tenfold. Thanks for answering.
NHS bed occupancy at a 10 yr low although I appreciate that cases are a leading indicator.
Different time lines. Over 6 weeks, admissions have gone from 80 per day to 416. More or less fivefold compared to tenfold increase in cases.
If the SoS Health is right and we hit 100 000 cases per day, that will be a lot of admissions.
By all means argue that there is no alternative, but please do not deny the truth that there is going to be a lot of admissions in this wave.
As I said, there will be more admissions. But as I also said bed occupancy is at a 10 year low.
And I do argue that there is no alternative. Take my flu analogy. Covid is not the flu. But where we are now looks similar to the flu (hospitalisations and deaths). Would you be talking about such restrictions in a bad flu season?
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Admissions are +66% on a week ago and the numbers in hospital are +42% on a week ago.
The posters bullish on the vaccines already ending this haven't quoted the hospital figures for the last week or two.
I'm trying to hold my nerve and trusting that the virus is about to run out of susceptible people to infect, and we'll soon see vaccines bring the hospital numbers down. Right at this moment they are deteriorating rapidly. Twelve days until my second dose appointment...
SKS on the telly saying that the NHS app for pinging shouldn't be changed. Ie should remain pinging hundreds of thousands of people and telling them to self isolate for 10 days.
He really hasn't caught the mood of the nation, has he.
Delusional. He was onto something on Wednesday saying this is an issue, and now he's objecting to them addressing the issue he brought up on Wednesday instead of claiming credit in having got the government to move.
Snatching defeat from jaws of a rare victory.
It all depends Philip. If Johnson is right and vaccines are the magic bullet, all hail to the king, and everyone forgets what Starmer said. If Johnson is wrong and people start dying and the NHS struggles, Starmer is a soothsayer.
If I were a Boris fanboi, I would be quite concerned at the undercurrent of economic excrement apparently heading our way. Maybe we avoid it, probably not.
You're now also contradicting yourself. Vaccines may not work so follow SKS in maintaining restrictions. But the economy is fucked. Why do you think the economy is fucked?
If vaccines don't work we're screwed anyway. The evidence however is that they do. It's all very well going on about hospitalisations and deaths rising and being a lagging factor. That doesn't mean they are going to increase indefinitely to unmanageable levels. Just means that they haven't fully run into the vaccine ceiling yet. But then they're still very low compared to what we went through before.
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Cases up tenfold in six weeks. Admissions, ventilators and deaths all on the rise. Admissions doubled since June 25 for example.
Doubled vs tenfold. Thanks for answering.
NHS bed occupancy at a 10 yr low although I appreciate that cases are a leading indicator.
Different time lines. Over 6 weeks, admissions have gone from 80 per day to 416. More or less fivefold compared to tenfold increase in cases.
If the SoS Health is right and we hit 100 000 cases per day, that will be a lot of admissions.
By all means argue that there is no alternative, but please do not deny the truth that there is going to be a lot of admissions in this wave.
Except 6 weeks ago the admissions were being concentrated in a small number of areas. Now they are spread about the country. The test is whether they continue to grow significantly one the the numbers rising is only a function of vertical spread (increases in hospitals) rather than a combination of vertical and horizontal spread (increases in an expanding number of areas)
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Cases up tenfold in six weeks. Admissions, ventilators and deaths all on the rise. Admissions doubled since June 25 for example.
Doubled vs tenfold. Thanks for answering.
NHS bed occupancy at a 10 yr low although I appreciate that cases are a leading indicator.
Different time lines. Over 6 weeks, admissions have gone from 80 per day to 416. More or less fivefold compared to tenfold increase in cases.
If the SoS Health is right and we hit 100 000 cases per day, that will be a lot of admissions.
By all means argue that there is no alternative, but please do not deny the truth that there is going to be a lot of admissions in this wave.
Hopefully when we get the official announcement, we get the modeling on predictions of hospitalisations vs cases.
At a guess, I would expect about 1500 admissions per day by the peak of this wave, similar to the end of November 2020.
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Admissions are +66% on a week ago and the numbers in hospital are +42% on a week ago.
The posters bullish on the vaccines already ending this haven't quoted the hospital figures for the last week or two.
I'm trying to hold my nerve and trusting that the virus is about to run out of susceptible people to infect, and we'll soon see vaccines bring the hospital numbers down. Right at this moment they are deteriorating rapidly. Twelve days until my second dose appointment...
Among vaccinated...2 under 50s dead in 6 months....115 over 50s. And how many over 50s were really old and frail or had a multitude of other issues?
It's the bigger picture Richard. Once you have to prove by law who you are to do something which should be a matter of personal choice then there is no going back.
Don't be silly. For a start you don't have to prove who you are, any more than you do when you present a ticket to get into the theatre, let alone a passport to get into the Shard, or a photo ID for a youngster to get into a nightclub, or a bus pass with photo for a pensioner to get on a bus. What on earth do you think the alternative has been? Have you forgotten that we were confined to our homes and only allowed out under very limited circumstances for months? How on earth can being required to show you've been vaccinated - should you wish, entirely voluntarily, to go to a venue which would otherwise be closed completely, and had been closed completely for months - be regarded as a step too far in comparison to that?
And if you don't like it, don't go to the venue for a few weeks until we're in a better position with vaccination. No jackbooted bureaucrat is going to trouble you if you prefer to stay watching the TV or posting indignation on PB.
If a private institution wants to mandate vax passports then let them go for it. People will vote with their feet.
But not the government.
You have lost sight of proportionality. We are mostly vaxxed. The NHS is not at risk of being overwhelmed. We have unprecedented restrictions on our liberty. And people it seems including you are applauding those measures. Just to be safe.
It's shocking.
No, my position is the diametric opposite, I want these places to be open. At the moment they are either closed completely, or operating under draconian social-distancing rules which mean they lose huge amounts of money. Why? Because the government is too frit, or too stupid, to admit that there is a massive difference in risk between allowing the vaccinated to congregate in these venues compared with the unvaccinated. So, for a given level of safety, we could have opened up more. As it is, because of various blunders the government has made, we're now faced with an unrealistic expectation that everything can be completely reopened safely. As a result the government is scrabbling, too late, to contain an unnecessarily severe third wave, whilst still not getting the full economic and other benefits that could have been obtained.
By and large the people who are going to pack into pubs are not the people who are double vaccinated. They are the young, who couldn't have been doubled vaccinated so far even if they'd wanted to be (and many won't be for a couple of months).
Gareth Southgate moves so effortlessly from ‘woke’ to ‘gammon’. What a marvellous man. It’s coming home!
“I think there are historic things that we should be proud of," he said. "There are different aspects to it, but at heart I go back to the values that my parents gave me and treating people as you would want to be treated, and just respectful really.
"But also people have tried to invade us and we've had the courage to hold that back. You can't hide that some of the energy in the stadium against Germany was because of that. I never mentioned that to the players, but I know that's part of what that story was.
"We have so many things here that we should be proud of that we probably underestimate, that maybe if we were living in other countries we always see what's good about them, but we are always looking at the negatives of our own country.
"Yet we have got so much to be proud of. For an island our size, we've got an incredible influence on the world and we've got to keep that in a positive way."
Smart commercial move by Gareth. He has realised that the woke ex-footballer market is somewhat crowded at the moment (Lineker, Neville etc) so trying to muscle in is probably a waste of time. Far better to target the Gammon market which is far more underserved. A contract at the Mail or Telegraph awaits *
* plus a knighthood, and possible peerage, from BJ
It's hardly gammon. It's the kind of talk Blair used to specialise in. And it's true.
SKS on the telly saying that the NHS app for pinging shouldn't be changed. Ie should remain pinging hundreds of thousands of people and telling them to self isolate for 10 days.
He really hasn't caught the mood of the nation, has he.
Delusional. He was onto something on Wednesday saying this is an issue, and now he's objecting to them addressing the issue he brought up on Wednesday instead of claiming credit in having got the government to move.
Snatching defeat from jaws of a rare victory.
It all depends Philip. If Johnson is right and vaccines are the magic bullet, all hail to the king, and everyone forgets what Starmer said.. If Johnson is wrong and people start dying and the NHS struggles, Starmer is a soothsayer.
If I were a Boris fanboi, I would be quite concerned at the undercurrent of economic excrement apparently heading our way. Maybe we avoid it, probably not.
If vaccines aren't the magic bullet what would you suggest?
Vaccines are fantastic. I've had mine courtesy of Mr Pfizer and I am more than happy too.
I just think we are tempting fate when there is a failure in efficacy of maybe 10% or 20% and we are told to fill our boots. Now I am quite content to fill my boots if I am not one of the 10% or 20% that short-circuits the vaccine. Removal of masks, for example, in confined spaces looks like a bad deal to me. I say that as someone herded onto a rammed airport terminal bus a couple of weeks ago. There are unclean, dirty b******* everywhere, I don't want to breathe their germs.
It's the bigger picture Richard. Once you have to prove by law who you are to do something which should be a matter of personal choice then there is no going back.
Don't be silly. For a start you don't have to prove who you are, any more than you do when you present a ticket to get into the theatre, let alone a passport to get into the Shard, or a photo ID for a youngster to get into a nightclub, or a bus pass with photo for a pensioner to get on a bus. What on earth do you think the alternative has been? Have you forgotten that we were confined to our homes and only allowed out under very limited circumstances for months? How on earth can being required to show you've been vaccinated - should you wish, entirely voluntarily, to go to a venue which would otherwise be closed completely, and had been closed completely for months - be regarded as a step too far in comparison to that?
And if you don't like it, don't go to the venue for a few weeks until we're in a better position with vaccination. No jackbooted bureaucrat is going to trouble you if you prefer to stay watching the TV or posting indignation on PB.
If a private institution wants to mandate vax passports then let them go for it. People will vote with their feet.
But not the government.
You have lost sight of proportionality. We are mostly vaxxed. The NHS is not at risk of being overwhelmed. We have unprecedented restrictions on our liberty. And people it seems including you are applauding those measures. Just to be safe.
It's shocking.
No, my position is the diametric opposite, I want these places to be open. At the moment they are either closed completely, or operating under draconian social-distancing rules which mean they lose huge amounts of money. Why? Because the government is too frit, or too stupid, to admit that there is a massive difference in risk between allowing the vaccinated to congregate in these venues compared with the unvaccinated. So, for a given level of safety, we could have opened up more. As it is, because of various blunders the government has made, we're now faced with an unrealistic expectation that everything can be completely reopened safely. As a result the government is scrabbling, too late, to contain an unnecessarily severe third wave, whilst still not getting the full economic and other benefits that could have been obtained.
I think we would have had the third wave whenever we decided to open up. So let's look at the vulnerable. Unvaxxed and the young. Unvaxxed is not our problem. And the young seem to have far better outcomes.
So with vaccinations we are indeed at a point whereby we can and should reopen. Not 100% safely but realistically.
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Cases up tenfold in six weeks. Admissions, ventilators and deaths all on the rise. Admissions doubled since June 25 for example.
Doubled vs tenfold. Thanks for answering.
NHS bed occupancy at a 10 yr low although I appreciate that cases are a leading indicator.
Different time lines. Over 6 weeks, admissions have gone from 80 per day to 416. More or less fivefold compared to tenfold increase in cases.
If the SoS Health is right and we hit 100 000 cases per day, that will be a lot of admissions.
By all means argue that there is no alternative, but please do not deny the truth that there is going to be a lot of admissions in this wave.
As I said, there will be more admissions. But as I also said bed occupancy is at a 10 year low.
And I do argue that there is no alternative. Take my flu analogy. Covid is not the flu. But where we are now looks similar to the flu (hospitalisations and deaths). Would you be talking about such restrictions in a bad flu season?
Come on BJO, fair play. We are only 3.6 points adrift of the Tories. One last heave!
What numbers are behind those dramatic percentages John, that supports the narrative you are pushing? Just a drop of 319 votes one particular 2500 constituency where 24% turnout? Is that wholly because Starmer is deadly, or because popular Dr Nic wasn’t standing?
I’m trying to be polite to you here John, but you keep embarrassing yourself.
Are you talking to me or BJO? My tongue was firmly in my cheek.
Come on BJO, fair play. We are only 3.6 points adrift of the Tories. One last heave!
What numbers are behind those dramatic percentages John, that supports the narrative you are pushing? Just a drop of 319 votes one particular 2500 constituency where 24% turnout? Is that wholly because Starmer is deadly, or because popular Dr Nic wasn’t standing?
I’m trying to be polite to you here John, but you keep embarrassing yourself.
Are you talking to me or BJO? My tongue was firmly in my cheek.
The never undersold BIG JOHN.
He obviously getting this greatly spun guff and getting radicalised at the same time, on some bent Twitter feed or website that, as it turns out, is not Labour at all but a Tory Dark Ops set up.
Stick to PB for unspun balance to the facts that matter Big John.
SKS on the telly saying that the NHS app for pinging shouldn't be changed. Ie should remain pinging hundreds of thousands of people and telling them to self isolate for 10 days.
He really hasn't caught the mood of the nation, has he.
Delusional. He was onto something on Wednesday saying this is an issue, and now he's objecting to them addressing the issue he brought up on Wednesday instead of claiming credit in having got the government to move.
Snatching defeat from jaws of a rare victory.
It all depends Philip. If Johnson is right and vaccines are the magic bullet, all hail to the king, and everyone forgets what Starmer said. If Johnson is wrong and people start dying and the NHS struggles, Starmer is a soothsayer.
If I were a Boris fanboi, I would be quite concerned at the undercurrent of economic excrement apparently heading our way. Maybe we avoid it, probably not.
You're now also contradicting yourself. Vaccines may not work so follow SKS in maintaining restrictions. But the economy is fucked. Why do you think the economy is fucked?
Don't blame me, I'm out there fully masked working like a dog!
My issue is if dates rather than data mean we have further restrictions down the line, I would prefer to be slightly more cautious now.
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Cases up tenfold in six weeks. Admissions, ventilators and deaths all on the rise. Admissions doubled since June 25 for example.
Doubled vs tenfold. Thanks for answering.
NHS bed occupancy at a 10 yr low although I appreciate that cases are a leading indicator.
Different time lines. Over 6 weeks, admissions have gone from 80 per day to 416. More or less fivefold compared to tenfold increase in cases.
If the SoS Health is right and we hit 100 000 cases per day, that will be a lot of admissions.
By all means argue that there is no alternative, but please do not deny the truth that there is going to be a lot of admissions in this wave.
Hopefully when we get the official announcement, we get the modeling on predictions of hospitalisations vs cases.
At a guess, I would expect about 1500 admissions per day by the peak of this wave, similar to the end of November 2020.
That would suggest vaccines aren't very effective...as you are pretty much saying hospitalisations will continue to increase as a similar proportion to cases as now ( a bit slower...500 from 25-30k cases (when people infected) -> 1500 for 100k).
Gareth Southgate moves so effortlessly from ‘woke’ to ‘gammon’. What a marvellous man. It’s coming home!
“I think there are historic things that we should be proud of," he said. "There are different aspects to it, but at heart I go back to the values that my parents gave me and treating people as you would want to be treated, and just respectful really.
"But also people have tried to invade us and we've had the courage to hold that back. You can't hide that some of the energy in the stadium against Germany was because of that. I never mentioned that to the players, but I know that's part of what that story was.
"We have so many things here that we should be proud of that we probably underestimate, that maybe if we were living in other countries we always see what's good about them, but we are always looking at the negatives of our own country.
"Yet we have got so much to be proud of. For an island our size, we've got an incredible influence on the world and we've got to keep that in a positive way."
Smart commercial move by Gareth. He has realised that the woke ex-footballer market is somewhat crowded at the moment (Lineker, Neville etc) so trying to muscle in is probably a waste of time. Far better to target the Gammon market which is far more underserved. A contract at the Mail or Telegraph awaits *
* plus a knighthood, and possible peerage, from BJ
It's hardly gammon. It's the kind of talk Blair used to specialise in. And it's true.
"But also people have tried to invade us and we've had the courage to hold that back. You can't hide that some of the energy in the stadium against Germany was because of that. I never mentioned that to the players, but I know that's part of what that story was." is not gammon talk?
Come on BJO, fair play. We are only 3.6 points adrift of the Tories. One last heave!
What numbers are behind those dramatic percentages John, that supports the narrative you are pushing? Just a drop of 319 votes one particular 2500 constituency where 24% turnout? Is that wholly because Starmer is deadly, or because popular Dr Nic wasn’t standing?
I’m trying to be polite to you here John, but you keep embarrassing yourself.
Are you talking to me or BJO? My tongue was firmly in my cheek.
The never undersold BIG JOHN.
He obviously getting this greatly spun guff and getting radicalised at the same time, on some bent Twitter feed or website that, as it turns out, is not Labour at all but a Tory Dark Ops set up.
Stick to PB for unspun balance to the facts that matter Big John.
SKS on the telly saying that the NHS app for pinging shouldn't be changed. Ie should remain pinging hundreds of thousands of people and telling them to self isolate for 10 days.
He really hasn't caught the mood of the nation, has he.
Delusional. He was onto something on Wednesday saying this is an issue, and now he's objecting to them addressing the issue he brought up on Wednesday instead of claiming credit in having got the government to move.
Snatching defeat from jaws of a rare victory.
It all depends Philip. If Johnson is right and vaccines are the magic bullet, all hail to the king, and everyone forgets what Starmer said. If Johnson is wrong and people start dying and the NHS struggles, Starmer is a soothsayer.
If I were a Boris fanboi, I would be quite concerned at the undercurrent of economic excrement apparently heading our way. Maybe we avoid it, probably not.
You're now also contradicting yourself. Vaccines may not work so follow SKS in maintaining restrictions. But the economy is fucked. Why do you think the economy is fucked?
Don't blame me, I'm out there fully masked working like a dog!
My issue is if dates rather than data mean we have further restrictions down the line, I would prefer to be slightly more cautious now.
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Admissions are +66% on a week ago and the numbers in hospital are +42% on a week ago.
The posters bullish on the vaccines already ending this haven't quoted the hospital figures for the last week or two.
I'm trying to hold my nerve and trusting that the virus is about to run out of susceptible people to infect, and we'll soon see vaccines bring the hospital numbers down. Right at this moment they are deteriorating rapidly. Twelve days until my second dose appointment...
Among vaccinated...2 under 50s dead in 6 months....115 over 50s. And how many over 50s were really old and frail or had a multitude of other issues?
Most under-50s were not vaccinated for most of the last six months, so that's a classic bullshit statistic.
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Cases up tenfold in six weeks. Admissions, ventilators and deaths all on the rise. Admissions doubled since June 25 for example.
Doubled vs tenfold. Thanks for answering.
NHS bed occupancy at a 10 yr low although I appreciate that cases are a leading indicator.
Different time lines. Over 6 weeks, admissions have gone from 80 per day to 416. More or less fivefold compared to tenfold increase in cases.
If the SoS Health is right and we hit 100 000 cases per day, that will be a lot of admissions.
By all means argue that there is no alternative, but please do not deny the truth that there is going to be a lot of admissions in this wave.
Hopefully when we get the official announcement, we get the modeling on predictions of hospitalisations vs cases.
At a guess, I would expect about 1500 admissions per day by the peak of this wave, similar to the end of November 2020.
1500 admissions a day would be a 3 fold increase on where we are now. However to reach the equivalent peak of people hospitalised would require a much larger increase. Because just as current cases aren't equating to anywhere near as many hospitalisations as before, current admissions aren't leading to anything like the same level of long term patients (or deaths).
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Cases up tenfold in six weeks. Admissions, ventilators and deaths all on the rise. Admissions doubled since June 25 for example.
Doubled vs tenfold. Thanks for answering.
NHS bed occupancy at a 10 yr low although I appreciate that cases are a leading indicator.
Different time lines. Over 6 weeks, admissions have gone from 80 per day to 416. More or less fivefold compared to tenfold increase in cases.
If the SoS Health is right and we hit 100 000 cases per day, that will be a lot of admissions.
By all means argue that there is no alternative, but please do not deny the truth that there is going to be a lot of admissions in this wave.
As I said, there will be more admissions. But as I also said bed occupancy is at a 10 year low.
And I do argue that there is no alternative. Take my flu analogy. Covid is not the flu. But where we are now looks similar to the flu (hospitalisations and deaths). Would you be talking about such restrictions in a bad flu season?
I agree, Covid is not the flu. So why compare?
Do you think that with vaccinations Covid now manifests itself similarly to the flu in terms of the effect on society?
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Cases up tenfold in six weeks. Admissions, ventilators and deaths all on the rise. Admissions doubled since June 25 for example.
Doubled vs tenfold. Thanks for answering.
NHS bed occupancy at a 10 yr low although I appreciate that cases are a leading indicator.
Different time lines. Over 6 weeks, admissions have gone from 80 per day to 416. More or less fivefold compared to tenfold increase in cases.
If the SoS Health is right and we hit 100 000 cases per day, that will be a lot of admissions.
By all means argue that there is no alternative, but please do not deny the truth that there is going to be a lot of admissions in this wave.
Hopefully when we get the official announcement, we get the modeling on predictions of hospitalisations vs cases.
At a guess, I would expect about 1500 admissions per day by the peak of this wave, similar to the end of November 2020.
That would suggest vaccines aren't very effective...as you are pretty much saying hospitalisations will continue to increase as a similar proportion to cases as now ( a bit slower...500 from 25k cases (when people infected) -> 1500 for 100k).
No, I think the admissions will predominantly but not exclusively be the young and anti-vaxxers.
Gareth Southgate moves so effortlessly from ‘woke’ to ‘gammon’. What a marvellous man. It’s coming home!
“I think there are historic things that we should be proud of," he said. "There are different aspects to it, but at heart I go back to the values that my parents gave me and treating people as you would want to be treated, and just respectful really.
"But also people have tried to invade us and we've had the courage to hold that back. You can't hide that some of the energy in the stadium against Germany was because of that. I never mentioned that to the players, but I know that's part of what that story was.
"We have so many things here that we should be proud of that we probably underestimate, that maybe if we were living in other countries we always see what's good about them, but we are always looking at the negatives of our own country.
"Yet we have got so much to be proud of. For an island our size, we've got an incredible influence on the world and we've got to keep that in a positive way."
Smart commercial move by Gareth. He has realised that the woke ex-footballer market is somewhat crowded at the moment (Lineker, Neville etc) so trying to muscle in is probably a waste of time. Far better to target the Gammon market which is far more underserved. A contract at the Mail or Telegraph awaits *
* plus a knighthood, and possible peerage, from BJ
It's hardly gammon. It's the kind of talk Blair used to specialise in. And it's true.
"But also people have tried to invade us and we've had the courage to hold that back. You can't hide that some of the energy in the stadium against Germany was because of that. I never mentioned that to the players, but I know that's part of what that story was." is not gammon talk?
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Admissions are +66% on a week ago and the numbers in hospital are +42% on a week ago.
The posters bullish on the vaccines already ending this haven't quoted the hospital figures for the last week or two.
I'm trying to hold my nerve and trusting that the virus is about to run out of susceptible people to infect, and we'll soon see vaccines bring the hospital numbers down. Right at this moment they are deteriorating rapidly. Twelve days until my second dose appointment...
Among vaccinated...2 under 50s dead in 6 months....115 over 50s. And how many over 50s were really old and frail or had a multitude of other issues?
Most under-50s were not vaccinated for most of the last six months, so that's a classic bullshit statistic.
The vulnerable ones (ie. those at real risk of the virus) were.
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Admissions are +66% on a week ago and the numbers in hospital are +42% on a week ago.
The posters bullish on the vaccines already ending this haven't quoted the hospital figures for the last week or two.
I'm trying to hold my nerve and trusting that the virus is about to run out of susceptible people to infect, and we'll soon see vaccines bring the hospital numbers down. Right at this moment they are deteriorating rapidly. Twelve days until my second dose appointment...
Among vaccinated...2 under 50s dead in 6 months....115 over 50s. And how many over 50s were really old and frail or had a multitude of other issues?
Most under-50s were not vaccinated for most of the last six months, so that's a classic bullshit statistic.
115 over 50s is incredibly low nunber. As for under 50s, a reasonable proportion have due to work in high risk environment / being extremely vulnerable, so the ones most at risk of dying in the first place and they haven't.
PHE study out today just looking at extremely vulnerable individuals across all age ranges again showed very high levels of protection.
I think we would have had the third wave whenever we decided to open up. So let's look at the vulnerable. Unvaxxed and the young. Unvaxxed is not our problem. And the young seem to have far better outcomes.
So with vaccinations we are indeed at a point whereby we can and should reopen. Not 100% safely but realistically.
Unfortunately we're not quite there yet. We're close, true, but a large proportion of the adult population are still either unvaccinated, or have only had one jab or have only just had their second, so they're not fully protected. Sure, most of those are at relatively low risk, but they are not at negligible risk of some disagreeable outcomes and they can also pass on the plague to those for whom the vaccines don't give full protection. So, for a few weeks, we're in a somewhat dangerous position.
Of course, as a member of the double-jabbed elite without major risk factors other than age, I could take the view that I'm all right, Jack, and not care about those not yet protected. But I do care about them.
Just on a separate point on the Delta variant - what are the studies showing about actually how dangerous it is in unvaccinated people (compared to previous strains). Everyone seems to be assuming that it is just as dangerous, but is that clearly the case? As we know increased transmissibility and dangerous are not the same thing.
Gareth Southgate moves so effortlessly from ‘woke’ to ‘gammon’. What a marvellous man. It’s coming home!
“I think there are historic things that we should be proud of," he said. "There are different aspects to it, but at heart I go back to the values that my parents gave me and treating people as you would want to be treated, and just respectful really.
"But also people have tried to invade us and we've had the courage to hold that back. You can't hide that some of the energy in the stadium against Germany was because of that. I never mentioned that to the players, but I know that's part of what that story was.
"We have so many things here that we should be proud of that we probably underestimate, that maybe if we were living in other countries we always see what's good about them, but we are always looking at the negatives of our own country.
"Yet we have got so much to be proud of. For an island our size, we've got an incredible influence on the world and we've got to keep that in a positive way."
Smart commercial move by Gareth. He has realised that the woke ex-footballer market is somewhat crowded at the moment (Lineker, Neville etc) so trying to muscle in is probably a waste of time. Far better to target the Gammon market which is far more underserved. A contract at the Mail or Telegraph awaits *
* plus a knighthood, and possible peerage, from BJ
It's hardly gammon. It's the kind of talk Blair used to specialise in. And it's true.
"But also people have tried to invade us and we've had the courage to hold that back. You can't hide that some of the energy in the stadium against Germany was because of that. I never mentioned that to the players, but I know that's part of what that story was." is not gammon talk?
The world outside England has never been grateful enough for how our sense of fair play and our stiff upper lips saved everybody from Hitler.
It was our Battalion of Light Pens wot won the Second World War.
Just focus on sending out a team composed, organised and confident Gareth. Leave the gibberish Daily Mail editorial to the Daily Mail.
Come on BJO, fair play. We are only 3.6 points adrift of the Tories. One last heave!
What numbers are behind those dramatic percentages John, that supports the narrative you are pushing? Just a drop of 319 votes one particular 2500 constituency where 24% turnout? Is that wholly because Starmer is deadly, or because popular Dr Nic wasn’t standing?
I’m trying to be polite to you here John, but you keep embarrassing yourself.
Are you talking to me or BJO? My tongue was firmly in my cheek.
The never undersold BIG JOHN.
He obviously getting this greatly spun guff and getting radicalised at the same time, on some bent Twitter feed or website that, as it turns out, is not Labour at all but a Tory Dark Ops set up.
Stick to PB for unspun balance to the facts that matter Big John.
Gareth Southgate moves so effortlessly from ‘woke’ to ‘gammon’. What a marvellous man. It’s coming home!
“I think there are historic things that we should be proud of," he said. "There are different aspects to it, but at heart I go back to the values that my parents gave me and treating people as you would want to be treated, and just respectful really.
"But also people have tried to invade us and we've had the courage to hold that back. You can't hide that some of the energy in the stadium against Germany was because of that. I never mentioned that to the players, but I know that's part of what that story was.
"We have so many things here that we should be proud of that we probably underestimate, that maybe if we were living in other countries we always see what's good about them, but we are always looking at the negatives of our own country.
"Yet we have got so much to be proud of. For an island our size, we've got an incredible influence on the world and we've got to keep that in a positive way."
Smart commercial move by Gareth. He has realised that the woke ex-footballer market is somewhat crowded at the moment (Lineker, Neville etc) so trying to muscle in is probably a waste of time. Far better to target the Gammon market which is far more underserved. A contract at the Mail or Telegraph awaits *
* plus a knighthood, and possible peerage, from BJ
It's hardly gammon. It's the kind of talk Blair used to specialise in. And it's true.
"But also people have tried to invade us and we've had the courage to hold that back. You can't hide that some of the energy in the stadium against Germany was because of that. I never mentioned that to the players, but I know that's part of what that story was." is not gammon talk?
Not at all. It is true, is it not?
I disagree. It’s distasteful, unnecessary to focus on, and lacking grace.
Just on a separate point on the Delta variant - what are the studies showing about actually how dangerous it is in unvaccinated people (compared to previous strains). Everyone seems to be assuming that it is just as dangerous, but is that clearly the case? As we know increased transmissibility and dangerous are not the same thing.
There waa research out yesterday (if i remember correctly, don't have the link to hand) said it isn't. Its the transmissibility, leads to more cases, which obviously then leads to more deaths.
Just on a separate point on the Delta variant - what are the studies showing about actually how dangerous it is in unvaccinated people (compared to previous strains). Everyone seems to be assuming that it is just as dangerous, but is that clearly the case? As we know increased transmissibility and dangerous are not the same thing.
Do you mean, how bad is it if you do get infected? I believe the latest figures from PHE suggest it's not significantly different from previous strains in that respect.
Come on BJO, fair play. We are only 3.6 points adrift of the Tories. One last heave!
What numbers are behind those dramatic percentages John, that supports the narrative you are pushing? Just a drop of 319 votes one particular 2500 constituency where 24% turnout? Is that wholly because Starmer is deadly, or because popular Dr Nic wasn’t standing?
I’m trying to be polite to you here John, but you keep embarrassing yourself.
Are you talking to me or BJO? My tongue was firmly in my cheek.
The never undersold BIG JOHN.
He obviously getting this greatly spun guff and getting radicalised at the same time, on some bent Twitter feed or website that, as it turns out, is not Labour at all but a Tory Dark Ops set up.
Stick to PB for unspun balance to the facts that matter Big John.
xx
There was no need to kiss both cheeks, I’m not French.
I think we would have had the third wave whenever we decided to open up. So let's look at the vulnerable. Unvaxxed and the young. Unvaxxed is not our problem. And the young seem to have far better outcomes.
So with vaccinations we are indeed at a point whereby we can and should reopen. Not 100% safely but realistically.
Unfortunately we're not quite there yet. We're close, true, but a large proportion of the adult population are still either unvaccinated, or have only had one jab or have only just had their second, so they're not fully protected. Sure, most of those are at relatively low risk, but they are not at negligible risk of some disagreeable outcomes and they can also pass on the plague to those for whom the vaccines don't give full protection. So, for a few weeks, we're in a somewhat dangerous position.
Of course, as a member of the double-jabbed elite without major risk factors other than age, I could take the view that I'm all right, Jack, and not care about those not yet protected. But I do care about them.
Low but not negligible risk shouldn't equal infringements on our liberties.
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Admissions are +66% on a week ago and the numbers in hospital are +42% on a week ago.
The posters bullish on the vaccines already ending this haven't quoted the hospital figures for the last week or two.
I'm trying to hold my nerve and trusting that the virus is about to run out of susceptible people to infect, and we'll soon see vaccines bring the hospital numbers down. Right at this moment they are deteriorating rapidly. Twelve days until my second dose appointment...
Admissions, numbers in hospital, those on ventilators and deaths are doubling every 12 days (R=1.5). Serious but numbers relatively low at the moment.
Cases doubling every 16 days (R= 1.35). Remember the lag. Ten days ago R for cases was 1.7 (doubling every 9 days). So R for cases rapidly dropping.
I think we're going to be OK. I think this is the peak in cases and daily cases will be down to less than 10,000 (from 30,000) by September. Deaths etc will follow with a lag.
Come on BJO, fair play. We are only 3.6 points adrift of the Tories. One last heave!
What numbers are behind those dramatic percentages John, that supports the narrative you are pushing? Just a drop of 319 votes one particular 2500 constituency where 24% turnout? Is that wholly because Starmer is deadly, or because popular Dr Nic wasn’t standing?
I’m trying to be polite to you here John, but you keep embarrassing yourself.
Are you talking to me or BJO? My tongue was firmly in my cheek.
The never undersold BIG JOHN.
He obviously getting this greatly spun guff and getting radicalised at the same time, on some bent Twitter feed or website that, as it turns out, is not Labour at all but a Tory Dark Ops set up.
Stick to PB for unspun balance to the facts that matter Big John.
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Admissions are +66% on a week ago and the numbers in hospital are +42% on a week ago.
The posters bullish on the vaccines already ending this haven't quoted the hospital figures for the last week or two.
I'm trying to hold my nerve and trusting that the virus is about to run out of susceptible people to infect, and we'll soon see vaccines bring the hospital numbers down. Right at this moment they are deteriorating rapidly. Twelve days until my second dose appointment...
Admissions, numbers in hospital, those on ventilators and deaths are doubling every 12 days (R=1.5). Serious but numbers relatively low at the moment.
Cases doubling every 16 days (R= 1.35). Remember the lag. Ten days ago R for cases was 1.7 (doubling every 9 days). So R for cases rapidly dropping.
I think we're going to be OK. I think this is the peak in cases and daily cases will be down to less than 10,000 (from 30,000) by September. Deaths etc will follow with a lag.
Percentage increases on cases is falling again as well. First time a few weeks ago could have been because it was peaking in the hotspot areas ,but wasn't yet taking significant hold in wider areas. Hopefully this time it suggests approaching peaks across the country now it is pretty much everywhere. It can now only grow upwards, not by spreading to new areas, so we get the real test of the vaccine ceilings.
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Admissions are +66% on a week ago and the numbers in hospital are +42% on a week ago.
The posters bullish on the vaccines already ending this haven't quoted the hospital figures for the last week or two.
I'm trying to hold my nerve and trusting that the virus is about to run out of susceptible people to infect, and we'll soon see vaccines bring the hospital numbers down. Right at this moment they are deteriorating rapidly. Twelve days until my second dose appointment...
Admissions, numbers in hospital, those on ventilators and deaths are doubling every 12 days (R=1.5). Serious but numbers relatively low at the moment.
Cases doubling every 16 days (R= 1.35). Remember the lag. Ten days ago R for cases was 1.7 (doubling every 9 days). So R for cases rapidly dropping.
I think we're going to be OK. I think this is the peak in cases and daily cases will be down to less than 10,000 (from 30,000) by September. Deaths etc will follow with a lag.
I am interested to see what the modellers will say....if vaccines are as effective as thought, logic would suggest that as overall cases increase to these very large numbers, there aren't enough unvaccinated / not had covid before* to infect, thus has to be a larger gross number who are fully vaccinated but still got infected and the current data says 98% efficacy against that becoming serious....so the proportion of hospitalizations to cases should fall significantly.
At the moment, fully vaccinated cases only make up about 10% of the overall cases.
* yes reinfection does happen, but ONS data says very rare even rarer that these edge cases suffer a serious case.
It's the bigger picture Richard. Once you have to prove by law who you are to do something which should be a matter of personal choice then there is no going back.
Don't be silly. For a start you don't have to prove who you are, any more than you do when you present a ticket to get into the theatre, let alone a passport to get into the Shard, or a photo ID for a youngster to get into a nightclub, or a bus pass with photo for a pensioner to get on a bus. What on earth do you think the alternative has been? Have you forgotten that we were confined to our homes and only allowed out under very limited circumstances for months? How on earth can being required to show you've been vaccinated - should you wish, entirely voluntarily, to go to a venue which would otherwise be closed completely, and had been closed completely for months - be regarded as a step too far in comparison to that?
And if you don't like it, don't go to the venue for a few weeks until we're in a better position with vaccination. No jackbooted bureaucrat is going to trouble you if you prefer to stay watching the TV or posting indignation on PB.
If a private institution wants to mandate vax passports then let them go for it. People will vote with their feet.
But not the government.
You have lost sight of proportionality. We are mostly vaxxed. The NHS is not at risk of being overwhelmed. We have unprecedented restrictions on our liberty. And people it seems including you are applauding those measures. Just to be safe.
It's shocking.
+1
It shouldn't be tolerated. Those willing to sacrifice liberty to gain a little security end up with neither.
SKS on the telly saying that the NHS app for pinging shouldn't be changed. Ie should remain pinging hundreds of thousands of people and telling them to self isolate for 10 days.
He really hasn't caught the mood of the nation, has he.
Delusional. He was onto something on Wednesday saying this is an issue, and now he's objecting to them addressing the issue he brought up on Wednesday instead of claiming credit in having got the government to move.
Snatching defeat from jaws of a rare victory.
It all depends Philip. If Johnson is right and vaccines are the magic bullet, all hail to the king, and everyone forgets what Starmer said. If Johnson is wrong and people start dying and the NHS struggles, Starmer is a soothsayer.
If I were a Boris fanboi, I would be quite concerned at the undercurrent of economic excrement apparently heading our way. Maybe we avoid it, probably not.
You're now also contradicting yourself. Vaccines may not work so follow SKS in maintaining restrictions. But the economy is fucked. Why do you think the economy is fucked?
Don't blame me, I'm out there fully masked working like a dog!
My issue is if dates rather than data mean we have further restrictions down the line, I would prefer to be slightly more cautious now.
Keep at it!
Like you, I don't want any further disruption down the line, which is why I favour a cautious reopening, where certain restrictions like mask wearing, which is no great hardship, and it doesn't impact on economic recovery, is promoted, just in case.
My caution, whilst I am happy to beaver away for the odd shilling all day long, is challenged on here by the Boris fanbois, who it would appear can bang away at their PB keyboards all day from the safety of their hermetically sealed bunkers.
All the people on my Facebook who were posting on Monday about how reckless Boris was have posted this evening about the restaurants, etc, that they have been to this evening.
I make no judgement on what I think Johnson should do now, and I believe that people should generally be free to make their own choices, but in finding it hard to wrap my head around the disconnect between these two things.
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Cases up tenfold in six weeks. Admissions, ventilators and deaths all on the rise. Admissions doubled since June 25 for example.
Doubled vs tenfold. Thanks for answering.
NHS bed occupancy at a 10 yr low although I appreciate that cases are a leading indicator.
Different time lines. Over 6 weeks, admissions have gone from 80 per day to 416. More or less fivefold compared to tenfold increase in cases.
If the SoS Health is right and we hit 100 000 cases per day, that will be a lot of admissions.
By all means argue that there is no alternative, but please do not deny the truth that there is going to be a lot of admissions in this wave.
Hopefully when we get the official announcement, we get the modeling on predictions of hospitalisations vs cases.
At a guess, I would expect about 1500 admissions per day by the peak of this wave, similar to the end of November 2020.
My model is showing a peak of about 1,000 admissions a day in mid September with cases peaking about now.
All the people on my Facebook who were posting on Monday about how reckless Boris was have posted this evening about the restaurants, etc, that they have been to this evening.
I make no judgement on what I think Johnson should do now, and I believe that people should generally be free to make their own choices, but in finding it hard to wrap my head around the disconnect between these two things.
Its very simple.....its like tax increases....for thee, but not for me. Same as CLOSE THE BORDERS....THAT BORIS LETTING IN INDIAN VARIANT....what I can go abroad on holiday, quick get on the t'interweb and book something.
I think we would have had the third wave whenever we decided to open up. So let's look at the vulnerable. Unvaxxed and the young. Unvaxxed is not our problem. And the young seem to have far better outcomes.
So with vaccinations we are indeed at a point whereby we can and should reopen. Not 100% safely but realistically.
Unfortunately we're not quite there yet. We're close, true, but a large proportion of the adult population are still either unvaccinated, or have only had one jab or have only just had their second, so they're not fully protected. Sure, most of those are at relatively low risk, but they are not at negligible risk of some disagreeable outcomes and they can also pass on the plague to those for whom the vaccines don't give full protection. So, for a few weeks, we're in a somewhat dangerous position.
Of course, as a member of the double-jabbed elite without major risk factors other than age, I could take the view that I'm all right, Jack, and not care about those not yet protected. But I do care about them.
The young are willing to go to pubs. They are there.
If the illogically frit DESPITE being double jabbed don't want to go, it might be time for them to stay at home. Some of us have taken unprecedented steps, and suffered mental, physical and economic damage to protect the oldies and the more vulnerable in the past year. Time to repay the favour perhaps, and let us live our lives?
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Cases up tenfold in six weeks. Admissions, ventilators and deaths all on the rise. Admissions doubled since June 25 for example.
Doubled vs tenfold. Thanks for answering.
NHS bed occupancy at a 10 yr low although I appreciate that cases are a leading indicator.
Different time lines. Over 6 weeks, admissions have gone from 80 per day to 416. More or less fivefold compared to tenfold increase in cases.
If the SoS Health is right and we hit 100 000 cases per day, that will be a lot of admissions.
By all means argue that there is no alternative, but please do not deny the truth that there is going to be a lot of admissions in this wave.
Hopefully when we get the official announcement, we get the modeling on predictions of hospitalisations vs cases.
At a guess, I would expect about 1500 admissions per day by the peak of this wave, similar to the end of November 2020.
My model is showing a peak of about 1,000 admissions a day in mid September with cases peaking about now.
You model need retuning if you think cases are peaking now....they aren't. Also makes no logical sense, peak admissions traditionally happen 10-14 days after peak cases, but now that might not even be true, because of vaccines...so we probably have peak hospitalisations before peak cases.
All the people on my Facebook who were posting on Monday about how reckless Boris was have posted this evening about the restaurants, etc, that they have been to this evening.
I make no judgement on what I think Johnson should do now, and I believe that people should generally be free to make their own choices, but in finding it hard to wrap my head around the disconnect between these two things.
The truly frit will stay at home; everyone else is taking their cue from friends and family.
Let me just remind those arguing for caution, it is currently ILLEGAL FOR MORE THAN 6 PEOPLE TO BE IN MY HOUSE.
I think we would have had the third wave whenever we decided to open up. So let's look at the vulnerable. Unvaxxed and the young. Unvaxxed is not our problem. And the young seem to have far better outcomes.
So with vaccinations we are indeed at a point whereby we can and should reopen. Not 100% safely but realistically.
Unfortunately we're not quite there yet. We're close, true, but a large proportion of the adult population are still either unvaccinated, or have only had one jab or have only just had their second, so they're not fully protected. Sure, most of those are at relatively low risk, but they are not at negligible risk of some disagreeable outcomes and they can also pass on the plague to those for whom the vaccines don't give full protection. So, for a few weeks, we're in a somewhat dangerous position.
Of course, as a member of the double-jabbed elite without major risk factors other than age, I could take the view that I'm all right, Jack, and not care about those not yet protected. But I do care about them.
Low but not negligible risk shouldn't equal infringements on our liberties.
How much of a liberty is being taken now, that we can’t really live with.
We basically have everything back pretty much to normal, once we add inside eating and boozing to match the outside boozing and eating. I was at a T20 today, and it was no different than 2019. It was normal.
We are not going to get working in offices back to where it was March 2020, that’s changed for ever now, partly driven by Sunak and Bojo forcing hybrid on the Civil Service.
And Test Trace and Isolate isn’t going to be decommissioned until at least next year, apart from those things, what is there left I am missing to really get worked up about?
It’s time to all come back on one page together, and rebuild together.
I think we would have had the third wave whenever we decided to open up. So let's look at the vulnerable. Unvaxxed and the young. Unvaxxed is not our problem. And the young seem to have far better outcomes.
So with vaccinations we are indeed at a point whereby we can and should reopen. Not 100% safely but realistically.
Unfortunately we're not quite there yet. We're close, true, but a large proportion of the adult population are still either unvaccinated, or have only had one jab or have only just had their second, so they're not fully protected. Sure, most of those are at relatively low risk, but they are not at negligible risk of some disagreeable outcomes and they can also pass on the plague to those for whom the vaccines don't give full protection. So, for a few weeks, we're in a somewhat dangerous position.
Of course, as a member of the double-jabbed elite without major risk factors other than age, I could take the view that I'm all right, Jack, and not care about those not yet protected. But I do care about them.
Low but not negligible risk shouldn't equal infringements on our liberties.
How much of a liberty is being taken now, that we can’t really live with.
We basically have everything back pretty much to normal, once we add inside eating and boozing to match the outside boozing and eating. I was at a T20 today, and it was no different than 2019. It was normal.
We are not going to get working in offices back to where it was March 2020, that’s changed for ever now, partly driven by Sunak and Bojo forcing hybrid on the Civil Service.
And Test Trace and Isolate isn’t going to be decommissioned until at least next year, apart from those things, what is there left I am missing to really get worked up about?
It’s time to all come back on one page together, and rebuild together.
Rubbish. I can't have 6 other people around to dinner.
That there are frit people defending this is sheer madness.
I think we would have had the third wave whenever we decided to open up. So let's look at the vulnerable. Unvaxxed and the young. Unvaxxed is not our problem. And the young seem to have far better outcomes.
So with vaccinations we are indeed at a point whereby we can and should reopen. Not 100% safely but realistically.
Unfortunately we're not quite there yet. We're close, true, but a large proportion of the adult population are still either unvaccinated, or have only had one jab or have only just had their second, so they're not fully protected. Sure, most of those are at relatively low risk, but they are not at negligible risk of some disagreeable outcomes and they can also pass on the plague to those for whom the vaccines don't give full protection. So, for a few weeks, we're in a somewhat dangerous position.
Of course, as a member of the double-jabbed elite without major risk factors other than age, I could take the view that I'm all right, Jack, and not care about those not yet protected. But I do care about them.
Low but not negligible risk shouldn't equal infringements on our liberties.
How much of a liberty is being taken now, that we can’t really live with.
We basically have everything back pretty much to normal, once we add inside eating and boozing to match the outside boozing and eating. I was at a T20 today, and it was no different than 2019. It was normal.
We are not going to get working in offices back to where it was March 2020, that’s changed for ever now, partly driven by Sunak and Bojo forcing hybrid on the Civil Service.
And Test Trace and Isolate isn’t going to be decommissioned until at least next year, apart from those things, what is there left I am missing to really get worked up about?
It’s time to all come back on one page together, and rebuild together.
Rubbish. I can't have 6 other people around to dinner.
That there are frit people defending this is sheer madness.
you can have that freedom day. End of rule of six. Eat and drink without social distancing inside just like we already can outside.
Apart from that what else of substance have you got to get so shouty about?
I think we would have had the third wave whenever we decided to open up. So let's look at the vulnerable. Unvaxxed and the young. Unvaxxed is not our problem. And the young seem to have far better outcomes.
So with vaccinations we are indeed at a point whereby we can and should reopen. Not 100% safely but realistically.
Unfortunately we're not quite there yet. We're close, true, but a large proportion of the adult population are still either unvaccinated, or have only had one jab or have only just had their second, so they're not fully protected. Sure, most of those are at relatively low risk, but they are not at negligible risk of some disagreeable outcomes and they can also pass on the plague to those for whom the vaccines don't give full protection. So, for a few weeks, we're in a somewhat dangerous position.
Of course, as a member of the double-jabbed elite without major risk factors other than age, I could take the view that I'm all right, Jack, and not care about those not yet protected. But I do care about them.
Low but not negligible risk shouldn't equal infringements on our liberties.
How much of a liberty is being taken now, that we can’t really live with.
We basically have everything back pretty much to normal, once we add inside eating and boozing to match the outside boozing and eating. I was at a T20 today, and it was no different than 2019. It was normal.
We are not going to get working in offices back to where it was March 2020, that’s changed for ever now, partly driven by Sunak and Bojo forcing hybrid on the Civil Service.
And Test Trace and Isolate isn’t going to be decommissioned until at least next year, apart from those things, what is there left I am missing to really get worked up about?
It’s time to all come back on one page together, and rebuild together.
Rubbish. I can't have 6 other people around to dinner.
That there are frit people defending this is sheer madness.
I just said you can have that. End of rule of six. Eat and drink without social distancing inside just like we already can outside.
Apart from that what else of substance have you got to get so shouty about?
The rule of the fearful is very much worthy of protesting against.
You were the one who wanted to give our vaccines away months ago, weren't you?
All the people on my Facebook who were posting on Monday about how reckless Boris was have posted this evening about the restaurants, etc, that they have been to this evening.
I make no judgement on what I think Johnson should do now, and I believe that people should generally be free to make their own choices, but in finding it hard to wrap my head around the disconnect between these two things.
Yep i’m fed up of hearing people telling me how scared they are to go on public transport whilst having no problem with going to the pub and mixing maskless and alcohol uninhibited with all and sundry.
I think we would have had the third wave whenever we decided to open up. So let's look at the vulnerable. Unvaxxed and the young. Unvaxxed is not our problem. And the young seem to have far better outcomes.
So with vaccinations we are indeed at a point whereby we can and should reopen. Not 100% safely but realistically.
Unfortunately we're not quite there yet. We're close, true, but a large proportion of the adult population are still either unvaccinated, or have only had one jab or have only just had their second, so they're not fully protected. Sure, most of those are at relatively low risk, but they are not at negligible risk of some disagreeable outcomes and they can also pass on the plague to those for whom the vaccines don't give full protection. So, for a few weeks, we're in a somewhat dangerous position.
Of course, as a member of the double-jabbed elite without major risk factors other than age, I could take the view that I'm all right, Jack, and not care about those not yet protected. But I do care about them.
Low but not negligible risk shouldn't equal infringements on our liberties.
How much of a liberty is being taken now, that we can’t really live with.
We basically have everything back pretty much to normal, once we add inside eating and boozing to match the outside boozing and eating. I was at a T20 today, and it was no different than 2019. It was normal.
We are not going to get working in offices back to where it was March 2020, that’s changed for ever now, partly driven by Sunak and Bojo forcing hybrid on the Civil Service.
And Test Trace and Isolate isn’t going to be decommissioned until at least next year, apart from those things, what is there left I am missing to really get worked up about?
It’s time to all come back on one page together, and rebuild together.
Rubbish. I can't have 6 other people around to dinner.
That there are frit people defending this is sheer madness.
I just said you can have that. End of rule of six. Eat and drink without social distancing inside just like we already can outside.
Apart from that what else of substance have you got to get so shouty about?
The rule of the fearful is very much worthy of protesting against.
You were the one who wanted to give our vaccines away months ago, weren't you?
My position was, once we had done most vulnerable, share some outside UK as we continued. I still don’t have a problem suggesting that. Too late now though, it’s history and we didn’t, unless it’s kept secret.
Instead of just getting worked up over “rule of fearful” prove that is not just a myth - end rule of six and social distancing for those who choose to go into pubs and bars. What else?
My point being we sure don’t need rule by the fearful, we certainly don’t need rule by the stubbornly unafraid either, we need to come together now. It’s high time we stopped being so introspective, realised what place we are in thanks to Cummings and his idea of vaccine task force (that he really should be recognised by Boris in honours list for what he has done for this country) and we now focus on doing the Good Samaritan bit.
There is another disconnect though too. Those who want all masks removed on public transport. But want everyone to assess risk in exactly the same way as they do. So we can get back to "normal". Remove the mask requirement on public transport and the economy will suffer. Because folk don't want to get sick just to do a bit of shopping or have a night out.
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Cases up tenfold in six weeks. Admissions, ventilators and deaths all on the rise. Admissions doubled since June 25 for example.
Doubled vs tenfold. Thanks for answering.
NHS bed occupancy at a 10 yr low although I appreciate that cases are a leading indicator.
Different time lines. Over 6 weeks, admissions have gone from 80 per day to 416. More or less fivefold compared to tenfold increase in cases.
If the SoS Health is right and we hit 100 000 cases per day, that will be a lot of admissions.
By all means argue that there is no alternative, but please do not deny the truth that there is going to be a lot of admissions in this wave.
Hopefully when we get the official announcement, we get the modeling on predictions of hospitalisations vs cases.
At a guess, I would expect about 1500 admissions per day by the peak of this wave, similar to the end of November 2020.
My model is showing a peak of about 1,000 admissions a day in mid September with cases peaking about now.
You model need retuning if you think cases are peaking now....they aren't. Also makes no logical sense, peak admissions traditionally happen 10-14 days after peak cases, but now that might not even be true, because of vaccines...so we probably have peak hospitalisations before peak cases.
You're right. I've retuned it and added today's data.
Cases flatten over the next ten days and don't get down to 10,000 a day until the end of July.
Admissions climb to a peak of about 1,300 by the end of July and then fall quite quickly.
It's a simple model. It assumes that the second derivative of R is constant (dropping 0.04 per day) and that admissions are a constant proportion of cases 14 days earlier.
Just been told a local pub has had to close and cancel all bookings for this weekend, for the final, because a senior member of staff has tested positive and so now all the staff have to isolate and the pub has to close.
That frigging sucks. People have put their hearts and souls into their businesses and been through a nightmare and now they're going to lose thousands in trade this weekend. This madness needs to end.
Covid passports for the double vaccinated rather than track and trace and isolation for those in contact with an infected person seems to be the way ahead from July 19th if tonight's news is true.
So July 19th effectively becomes Freedom Day for the double vaccinated, if you are not vaccinated you could be refused entry to a club, pub or restaurant and cannot travel abroad without quarantine
Very sensible, except it's too late. We should have been doing that before things started getting out of control. That way venues could have safely opened earlier, to everyone's benefit
The government should have been carefully laying the messaging groundwork for this for months, as well as making practical preparations. They've done neither. It will therefore be a disaster.
Data not dates they said, then ignored the data. At least until the numbers mushroomed 10 fold in 6 weeks.
Have hospitalisations and deaths mushroomed likewise?
I appreciate that as an NHS guy you would rather no patients and no illness but that suggests you are in the wrong job.
That is a little abusive to say the least.
Is it abusive to say a doctor doesn't want any deaths or illness?
Not abusive, merely misrepresenting my views.
You didn't answer my question. Data not dates. Hospitalisations and deaths. What are the data?
Cases up tenfold in six weeks. Admissions, ventilators and deaths all on the rise. Admissions doubled since June 25 for example.
Doubled vs tenfold. Thanks for answering.
NHS bed occupancy at a 10 yr low although I appreciate that cases are a leading indicator.
Different time lines. Over 6 weeks, admissions have gone from 80 per day to 416. More or less fivefold compared to tenfold increase in cases.
If the SoS Health is right and we hit 100 000 cases per day, that will be a lot of admissions.
By all means argue that there is no alternative, but please do not deny the truth that there is going to be a lot of admissions in this wave.
Hopefully when we get the official announcement, we get the modeling on predictions of hospitalisations vs cases.
At a guess, I would expect about 1500 admissions per day by the peak of this wave, similar to the end of November 2020.
My model is showing a peak of about 1,000 admissions a day in mid September with cases peaking about now.
I think peak new cases will be in around 2 weeks time. There is a lot of mixing around football and "freedom day" to come, and I would expect it to be a week or two for that to have effect.
There is another disconnect though too. Those who want all masks removed on public transport. But want everyone to assess risk in exactly the same way as they do. So we can get back to "normal". Remove the mask requirement on public transport and the economy will suffer. Because folk don't want to get sick just to do a bit of shopping or have a night out.
People shouldn't be getting sick because they've had the vaccine.
All the people on my Facebook who were posting on Monday about how reckless Boris was have posted this evening about the restaurants, etc, that they have been to this evening.
I make no judgement on what I think Johnson should do now, and I believe that people should generally be free to make their own choices, but in finding it hard to wrap my head around the disconnect between these two things.
The truly frit will stay at home; everyone else is taking their cue from friends and family.
Let me just remind those arguing for caution, it is currently ILLEGAL FOR MORE THAN 6 PEOPLE TO BE IN MY HOUSE.
That is outrageous.
Well have 12 illegally and see what happens. This "truly frit" talk makes it sound like you have sky dived off the top of K2 without oxygen. So what's the problem?
There is another disconnect though too. Those who want all masks removed on public transport. But want everyone to assess risk in exactly the same way as they do. So we can get back to "normal". Remove the mask requirement on public transport and the economy will suffer. Because folk don't want to get sick just to do a bit of shopping or have a night out.
People shouldn't be getting sick because they've had the vaccine.
But they are. The double vaccinated are getting sick all around me in the NE. They are testing positive by the dozen. They don't need hospital, but they aren't very well either. The vaccine has never claimed not to make you unwell.
There is another disconnect though too. Those who want all masks removed on public transport. But want everyone to assess risk in exactly the same way as they do. So we can get back to "normal". Remove the mask requirement on public transport and the economy will suffer. Because folk don't want to get sick just to do a bit of shopping or have a night out.
People shouldn't be getting sick because they've had the vaccine.
But they are. The double vaccinated are getting sick all around me in the NE. They are testing positive by the dozen. They don't need hospital, but they aren't very well either.
Comments
It is remarkable how people, faced with a choice of three evils, manage to convince themselves that putting their heads in the sand will somehow be better than choosing the least evil of the three.
Alternatively, come up with an argument yourself - I've never seen you make one.
The act of making a catch shall start from the time when the ball first comes into contact with a fielder’s person and shall end when a fielder obtains complete control over both the ball and his/her own movement.
https://www.lords.org/mcc/the-laws-of-cricket/caught
And close the borders? Again we look at Australia. A great article posted earlier about stranded citizens.
As I asked Foxy. Covid is not the flu. But we are now at the stage whereby it looks and behaves a lot like the flu. Would we be talking about these measures in a bad flu season?
Johnson may have captured the zeitgeist. On the other hand he may have dropped a great big fat hairy b******. Time will tell.
Plenty of time to get married, meal, few speeches then off to the bridal suite to watch the footy.
“I think there are historic things that we should be proud of," he said. "There are different aspects to it, but at heart I go back to the values that my parents gave me and treating people as you would want to be treated, and just respectful really.
"But also people have tried to invade us and we've had the courage to hold that back. You can't hide that some of the energy in the stadium against Germany was because of that. I never mentioned that to the players, but I know that's part of what that story was.
"We have so many things here that we should be proud of that we probably underestimate, that maybe if we were living in other countries we always see what's good about them, but we are always looking at the negatives of our own country.
"Yet we have got so much to be proud of. For an island our size, we've got an incredible influence on the world and we've got to keep that in a positive way."
It's coming Rome.
And if you don't like it, don't go to the venue for a few weeks until we're in a better position with vaccination. No jackbooted bureaucrat is going to trouble you if you prefer to stay watching the TV or posting indignation on PB.
NHS bed occupancy at a 10 yr low although I appreciate that cases are a leading indicator.
Gallowgate will confirm
If I were a Boris fanboi, I would be quite concerned at the undercurrent of economic excrement apparently heading our way. Maybe we avoid it, probably not.
But not the government.
You have lost sight of proportionality. We are mostly vaxxed. The NHS is not at risk of being overwhelmed. We have unprecedented restrictions on our liberty. And people it seems including you are applauding those measures. Just to be safe.
It's shocking.
I’m trying to be polite to you here John, but you keep embarrassing yourself.
If the SoS Health is right and we hit 100 000 cases per day, that will be a lot of admissions.
By all means argue that there is no alternative, but please do not deny the truth that there is going to be a lot of admissions in this wave.
But Covid passports can only be enforced if pubs can be punished for not enforcing it. Which means employing staff/security to do nothing but spend their time checking people's covid status. And of course it is pretty easy for people to evade anyway - just borrow somebody else's.
* plus a knighthood, and possible peerage, from BJ
And I do argue that there is no alternative. Take my flu analogy. Covid is not the flu. But where we are now looks similar to the flu (hospitalisations and deaths). Would you be talking about such restrictions in a bad flu season?
The posters bullish on the vaccines already ending this haven't quoted the hospital figures for the last week or two.
I'm trying to hold my nerve and trusting that the virus is about to run out of susceptible people to infect, and we'll soon see vaccines bring the hospital numbers down. Right at this moment they are deteriorating rapidly. Twelve days until my second dose appointment...
And it's true.
I just think we are tempting fate when there is a failure in efficacy of maybe 10% or 20% and we are told to fill our boots. Now I am quite content to fill my boots if I am not one of the 10% or 20% that short-circuits the vaccine. Removal of masks, for example, in confined spaces looks like a bad deal to me. I say that as someone herded onto a rammed airport terminal bus a couple of weeks ago. There are unclean, dirty b******* everywhere, I don't want to breathe their germs.
Lockdown sparked a surge in interest in moths, with a rise in rare species spotted last year.
Sightings were up by about a third - and many counties across the UK recorded species new to their area
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57742701
So with vaccinations we are indeed at a point whereby we can and should reopen. Not 100% safely but realistically.
He obviously getting this greatly spun guff and getting radicalised at the same time, on some bent Twitter feed or website that, as it turns out, is not Labour at all but a Tory Dark Ops set up.
Stick to PB for unspun balance to the facts that matter Big John.
https://www.huntingdonshire.gov.uk/media/5470/declaration-of-result-of-poll-8-july-2021.pdf
https://www.huntingdonshire.gov.uk/media/3090/election-results-district-3-may-2018.pdf
My issue is if dates rather than data mean we have further restrictions down the line, I would prefer to be slightly more cautious now.
PHE study out today just looking at extremely vulnerable individuals across all age ranges again showed very high levels of protection.
Of course, as a member of the double-jabbed elite without major risk factors other than age, I could take the view that I'm all right, Jack, and not care about those not yet protected. But I do care about them.
It was our Battalion of Light Pens wot won the Second World War.
Just focus on sending out a team composed, organised and confident Gareth. Leave the gibberish Daily Mail editorial to the Daily Mail.
St Neots 2021
Relevant why?
Cases doubling every 16 days (R= 1.35). Remember the lag. Ten days ago R for cases was 1.7 (doubling every 9 days). So R for cases rapidly dropping.
I think we're going to be OK. I think this is the peak in cases and daily cases will be down to less than 10,000 (from 30,000) by September. Deaths etc will follow with a lag.
At the moment, fully vaccinated cases only make up about 10% of the overall cases.
* yes reinfection does happen, but ONS data says very rare even rarer that these edge cases suffer a serious case.
It shouldn't be tolerated. Those willing to sacrifice liberty to gain a little security end up with neither.
My caution, whilst I am happy to beaver away for the odd shilling all day long, is challenged on here by the Boris fanbois, who it would appear can bang away at their PB keyboards all day from the safety of their hermetically sealed bunkers.
I make no judgement on what I think Johnson should do now, and I believe that people should generally be free to make their own choices, but in finding it hard to wrap my head around the disconnect between these two things.
If the illogically frit DESPITE being double jabbed don't want to go, it might be time for them to stay at home. Some of us have taken unprecedented steps, and suffered mental, physical and economic damage to protect the oldies and the more vulnerable in the past year. Time to repay the favour perhaps, and let us live our lives?
Let me just remind those arguing for caution, it is currently ILLEGAL FOR MORE THAN 6 PEOPLE TO BE IN MY HOUSE.
That is outrageous.
We basically have everything back pretty much to normal, once we add inside eating and boozing to match the outside boozing and eating. I was at a T20 today, and it was no different than 2019. It was normal.
We are not going to get working in offices back to where it was March 2020, that’s changed for ever now, partly driven by Sunak and Bojo forcing hybrid on the Civil Service.
And Test Trace and Isolate isn’t going to be decommissioned until at least next year, apart from those things, what is there left I am missing to really get worked up about?
It’s time to all come back on one page together, and rebuild together.
That there are frit people defending this is sheer madness.
Apart from that what else of substance have you got to get so shouty about?
You were the one who wanted to give our vaccines away months ago, weren't you?
Covid cases in England will 'plateau and then fall' within weeks
Outbreaks will plateau at different times in different regions, they wrote in one of the documents submitted on June 23.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9773049/SAGE-says-cases-fall-weeks-immunity-despite-explosion-Englands-outbreak.html
Missouri reports 2,160 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since January
Instead of just getting worked up over “rule of fearful” prove that is not just a myth - end rule of six and social distancing for those who choose to go into pubs and bars. What else?
My point being we sure don’t need rule by the fearful, we certainly don’t need rule by the stubbornly unafraid either, we need to come together now. It’s high time we stopped being so introspective, realised what place we are in thanks to Cummings and his idea of vaccine task force (that he really should be recognised by Boris in honours list for what he has done for this country) and we now focus on doing the Good Samaritan bit.
But want everyone to assess risk in exactly the same way as they do. So we can get back to "normal".
Remove the mask requirement on public transport and the economy will suffer. Because folk don't want to get sick just to do a bit of shopping or have a night out.
Cases flatten over the next ten days and don't get down to 10,000 a day until the end of July.
Admissions climb to a peak of about 1,300 by the end of July and then fall quite quickly.
It's a simple model. It assumes that the second derivative of R is constant (dropping 0.04 per day) and that admissions are a constant proportion of cases 14 days earlier.
They don't need hospital, but they aren't very well either.
The vaccine has never claimed not to make you unwell.