Welcome to the next stage of COVID – The Government versus the Scientists – politicalbetting.com

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Welcome to the next stage of COVID – The Government versus the Scientists – politicalbetting.com

Scientists vs. ministersWhitty warns the govt should "push hell for leather" to keep Covid cases "right down" — the opposite of the plan announced on MondayAdviser Stephen Reicher warns of 40,000 Long Covid cases per day, with 8,000 affected severelyhttps://t.co/8q9CEX7a6Z pic.twitter.com/cniPgwKoWY

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IshmaelZ

I can see it..

OnlyLivingBoy

First?

Pulpstar

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Pulpstar

"everyone is vaccinated" , quite sure I recall him saying infection may be superior for under 18s...

Gardenwalker

FPT

My issue with China, apart from the way it treats its own people, is that it advances the authoritarian, anti-democratic surveillance state as a model of development.

Ultimately, that’s a threat to our way of life, or perhaps our children’s way of life.

One of the best things Britain can do, in my opinion, is better uphold democracy, liberty and the rule of law in *this* country, thereby acting as an example to others.

We did this quite well for a hundred years or so.

Fun fact, I was taught by someone later outed as a Chinese spy at University.

rottenborough

Has the feel of another "Boris Xmas Day" I have to say with the actual decision not made until 12th July. Why on earth they spent all that political capital pre-announcing on Monday this week is beyond me? I know hospitality says they need time to plan but I think they could live with knowing the definite decision at the right time rather than this.

A significant factor this time is that Javid seems fully signed up to 'freedom day' unlike his gropey predecessor.

Cyclefree

Gardenwalker said:

FPT

My issue with China, apart from the way it treats its own people, is that it advances the authoritarian, anti-democratic surveillance state as a model of development.

Ultimately, that’s a threat to our way of life, or perhaps our children’s way of life.

One of the best things Britain can do, in my opinion, is better uphold democracy, liberty and the rule of law in *this* country, thereby acting as an example to others.

We did this quite well for a hundred years or so.

Fun fact, I was taught by someone later outed as a Chinese spy at University.

Fat chance when we've got Sunak wanting a more "nuanced" relationship with China, "nuanced" meaning "we promise we won't ever criticise you".

SouthamObserver

There does seem to be a hell of a lot of downside for the government in the way they are acting over this. It's a huge gamble.

rottenborough

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

eek

I'm using this not as a regional point but more because the figures are available without any effort

But 25% of school children in Darlington qualify for free school meals up from 21% last year https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19423497.quarter-pupils-darlington-receiving-free-school-meals/

So it does seem some people are worse off than before..

As you may remember I've pointed out that this understates the problem as some parents just won't claim for them. The fact 27% of primary children qualify and only 20% of secondary children qualify highlights that point.

Richard_Tyndall

Rare for me to say this but in this instance I think the Government are right. In answer to Mike's last question, for far too many people the time will never be right to lift restrictions and I personally think the Government have this one about right.

rottenborough

SouthamObserver said:

There does seem to be a hell of a lot of downside for the government in the way they are acting over this. It's a huge gamble.

The piece in Telegraph about UK finances and borrowing might be factor. OBR has warned of massive interest payments looming.

Got to get Britain back to full working speed will be Treasury view and no more spaffing on Track and Lose Trace.

Foxy

Cyclefree said:

Gardenwalker said:

FPT

My issue with China, apart from the way it treats its own people, is that it advances the authoritarian, anti-democratic surveillance state as a model of development.

Ultimately, that’s a threat to our way of life, or perhaps our children’s way of life.

One of the best things Britain can do, in my opinion, is better uphold democracy, liberty and the rule of law in *this* country, thereby acting as an example to others.

We did this quite well for a hundred years or so.

Fun fact, I was taught by someone later outed as a Chinese spy at University.

Fat chance when we've got Sunak wanting a more "nuanced" relationship with China, "nuanced" meaning "we promise we won't ever criticise you".

The tables have turned since the 19th century. We now allow China to buy up and modernise our infrastructure, and are reliant on Chinese capital and investment.

noneoftheabove

SouthamObserver said:

There does seem to be a hell of a lot of downside for the government in the way they are acting over this. It's a huge gamble.

On a betting website lets not pretend the other choices arent gambles either. There are no good options so it is a touch unfair to imply it is huge gamble when he has no safe choice available. All options have significant costs and downsides, none are as good as pre covid world.

CD13

At the risk of sounding a bit Sheldon Cooperish, Professor Reicher is a psychologist. Why is he sounding off about long Covid? Mission-creep seems an occupational hazard for some experts in other fields.

I can see the scene now ... "Let me through, I've a degree in Expressive Dance.

alex_

Isn’t there a flaw in the Reicher figures? That a fairly large proportion of the case numbers are going to be vaccinated people who probably won’t get “long Covid”? Even if the general numbers on link between unvaccinated infections and long Covid are correct and not based on infections including a far more elderly/vulnerable population (on average)

Sandpit

eek said:

I'm using this not as a regional point but more because the figures are available without any effort

But 25% of school children in Darlington qualify for free school meals up from 21% last year https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/19423497.quarter-pupils-darlington-receiving-free-school-meals/

So it does seem some people are worse off than before..

I think it’s fair to say that inequality has increased because of the pandemic.

For the WFH white-collar middle-classes, they’ve managed to save money on commuting, F&B and not taking holidays.

For the blue-collar and service industry workers, especially hourly paid workers, it’s been a pandemic of redundancies, isolation periods, shutdowns on reduced pay etc.

That’s making large generalisations, and most people on here will fall into the first category, but it explains stats like kids on free school meals going up.

rottenborough

Also worth noting this is not just ministers vs scientists. A significant strand of the conservative party wants unlocking and end to restrictions. Rightly or wrongly, their view is it is time for personal responsibility and risk assessment to come to the fore.

RochdalePioneers

*sits back and opens a huge bag of popcorn at south of the wall antics*

Meanwhile north of the wall, the Tory nob cheese Transport spokesman Graham Simpson whines "The SNP have taken their eye off the ball and the virus is threatening to spiral out of control in Scotland" - this apparently being a threat to Scottish summer holidays abroad which if he hadn't noticed started the week before last.

Foxy

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Gardenwalker

Cyclefree said:

Gardenwalker said:

FPT

My issue with China, apart from the way it treats its own people, is that it advances the authoritarian, anti-democratic surveillance state as a model of development.

Ultimately, that’s a threat to our way of life, or perhaps our children’s way of life.

One of the best things Britain can do, in my opinion, is better uphold democracy, liberty and the rule of law in *this* country, thereby acting as an example to others.

We did this quite well for a hundred years or so.

Fun fact, I was taught by someone later outed as a Chinese spy at University.

Fat chance when we've got Sunak wanting a more "nuanced" relationship with China, "nuanced" meaning "we promise we won't ever criticise you".

We do have to live with China somehow. We can’t wish it away. Therefore, I’m reserving judgment on Sunak’s comments.

I don’t even especially think it necessary for the govt to “criticise” China, but I do want it to promote our values, and protect our strategic industries and technologies.

alex_

FPT (in case anyone has answer)

NHS Covid app - can anyone explain to me how it is supposed to work because I’ve realised I don’t understand it at all. The Bluetooth bit I understand - if two people have the app turned on and one tests positive and uploads results to app, it will alert (anonymously) the other if they are deemed a close contact. And then they are theoretically supposed to isolate to protect others (although whether they do or not is untraceable).

But does anyone understand the QR code “check in feature”. I had assumed that this was somehow not anonymous and if it turned out you were in a venue highlighted as a “place of concern” then you would get a call from the track and trace team to determine if you needed to isolate. But as it is (as I understand) anonymous how does it work. It can’t possibly be the case that if alerted you are required to isolate as you may have no close contact whatsoever (for example there is a pub I go to which does take away served from the bar - and you have to check in - for the two minutes whilst you are being served. Unless you remember to check out again immediately there is no way that you should be deemed a close contact, but how does the app know that? Are you provided details of the positive test that triggered to allow you to make a personal assessment about whether to isolate?

Or is, in effect, the only purpose to alert venue owners that their staff are at risk and THEY all need to isolate?

RochdalePioneers

rottenborough said:

Also worth noting this is not just ministers vs scientists. A significant strand of the conservative party wants unlocking and end to restrictions. Rightly or wrongly, their view is it is time for personal responsibility and risk assessment to come to the fore.

True, the ministers aren't acting against their own party. The "unlock and let the poor and morally feckless be damned" brigade want rid of masks and that is going to happen regardless of what some experts say.

Anyway, if you want some entertainment, watch this. https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1412495320622174212?s=25&fbclid=IwAR1SRCPWa92H2mV-dG1EVhf_j2Ya896x6PABtYBeJ7SmCjgbTzHU2_Q8VD4

Claudia Webbe: "Why does the government not consider legal action to be relevant in the case of Belarus"
Raaaaaab (at the Foreign Affairs Select Committee): "What is the legal action that you're proposing? Who do you want us to sue and where?"
Webbe: errrrr

Mexicanpete

SouthamObserver said:

There does seem to be a hell of a lot of downside for the government in the way they are acting over this. It's a huge gamble.

PB Tories claim Johnson is a lucky General. Let's hope in this instance that assertion holds true.

rottenborough

"When Mr Javid said recently that we would have to deal with Covid as we did with with flu every year, he was denounced by some eminent boffins for this clearly idiotic comparison. Here we have a moronic Health Secretary who thinks Covid is the flu, said one. But he didn’t say that; and it was a wilful misrepresentation to claim that he did. The motivation for doing so is baffling."

Telegraph

NerysHughes

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Why have cases fallen off a cliff in India? There is no way a severe lockdown is possible there

Cyclefree

Foxy said:

Cyclefree said:

Gardenwalker said:

FPT

My issue with China, apart from the way it treats its own people, is that it advances the authoritarian, anti-democratic surveillance state as a model of development.

Ultimately, that’s a threat to our way of life, or perhaps our children’s way of life.

One of the best things Britain can do, in my opinion, is better uphold democracy, liberty and the rule of law in *this* country, thereby acting as an example to others.

We did this quite well for a hundred years or so.

Fun fact, I was taught by someone later outed as a Chinese spy at University.

Fat chance when we've got Sunak wanting a more "nuanced" relationship with China, "nuanced" meaning "we promise we won't ever criticise you".

The tables have turned since the 19th century. We now allow China to buy up and modernise our infrastructure, and are reliant on Chinese capital and investment.

Gardenwalker said:

Cyclefree said:

Gardenwalker said:

FPT

My issue with China, apart from the way it treats its own people, is that it advances the authoritarian, anti-democratic surveillance state as a model of development.

Ultimately, that’s a threat to our way of life, or perhaps our children’s way of life.

One of the best things Britain can do, in my opinion, is better uphold democracy, liberty and the rule of law in *this* country, thereby acting as an example to others.

We did this quite well for a hundred years or so.

Fun fact, I was taught by someone later outed as a Chinese spy at University.

Fat chance when we've got Sunak wanting a more "nuanced" relationship with China, "nuanced" meaning "we promise we won't ever criticise you".

We do have to live with China somehow. We can’t wish it away. Therefore, I’m reserving judgment on Sunak’s comments.

I don’t even especially think it necessary for the govt to “criticise” China, but I do want it to promote our values, and protect our strategic industries and technologies.

There is a difference between living with a country and bending over and holding our ankles.

Making pacts with the devil is never a good idea. And yes I do believe China under the current regime is a devil. It is a threat to freedom and liberty and democracy. The more we depend on it, the more that will threaten our freedom, liberty and democracy.

Sandpit

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

What controls it, is everyone getting vaccinated!

It’s also true that countries such as the U.K. and UAE are suffering from high reported case numbers, purely because they are doing mass testing of the asymptomatic.

As we’ve seen, the number of Covid patients in hospital has been disconnected from the number of positive cases.

Once everyone has been offered a vaccine, the pandemic as such is over (domestically, at least), and it becomes impossible to justify the continuation of emergency restrictions.

Gardenwalker

rottenborough said:

SouthamObserver said:

There does seem to be a hell of a lot of downside for the government in the way they are acting over this. It's a huge gamble.

The piece in Telegraph about UK finances and borrowing might be factor. OBR has warned of massive interest payments looming.

Got to get Britain back to full working speed will be Treasury view and no more spaffing on Track and Lose Trace.

The OBR identifies three key threats to public finances, of which higher interest rates is one.

The other two are climate change (where it suggests that greater action now will actually save government money in the medium term), and covid, where it notes that the government has made no provision for extra spending after this year despite a massive NHS backlog and the likelihood of long covid issues.

The government is generally misunderstood as “high spending”, which it really only is because of Covid. The underlying trajectory set by Rishi is one of further austerity in public services. Levelling up is a fraud.

Boris himself inclined to high spending of course, but his wanton lack of grip suggests that Rishi and the Treasury will dictate fiscal policy.

It will be interesting to see how these tensions play out.

MaxPB

The scientists are having their one last heave moment this week to try and get the 19th delayed by another 4 weeks.

Foxy

RochdalePioneers said:

*sits back and opens a huge bag of popcorn at south of the wall antics*

Meanwhile north of the wall, the Tory nob cheese Transport spokesman Graham Simpson whines "The SNP have taken their eye off the ball and the virus is threatening to spiral out of control in Scotland" - this apparently being a threat to Scottish summer holidays abroad which if he hadn't noticed started the week before last.

I saw on the news that Raigmore hospital in Inverness is on Black alert, the highest level, with elective surgery cancelled.

https://www.inverness-courier.co.uk/news/raigmore-hospital-at-capacity-as-covid-surge-adds-to-unpr-243752/

Which makes my point. It is not lockdowns that create pressure on non covid services and waiting lists, it is pandemic cases themselves.

alex_

CD13 said:

At the risk of sounding a bit Sheldon Cooperish, Professor Reicher is a psychologist. Why is he sounding off about long Covid? Mission-creep seems an occupational hazard for some experts in other fields.

I can see the scene now ... "Let me through, I've a degree in Expressive Dance.

Yes, we are well used to the media using rent-a-gob backbenchers as a way of apparently giving an insight into Govt policy. It is a very bad development of this pandemic that the media make no attempt to consider an individual’s area of expertise in their rent-a-hobby-scientist approach throughout the pandemic. Simply having an association with an “expert” committee (whether official or unofficial” is deemed sufficient.

DavidL

Where we do need to go hell for leather is vaccines. Our vaccination rate is slowing to a crawl and there are still so many not vaccinated and even more not vaccinated twice. Vaccines were always the way out and we need to do everything we can to incentivise those being recalcitrant.

The government has, in the last few days, finally started to make it clear that the double vaxxed will be treated differently. They should have done that a month ago. Other schemes such as Khan's lottery draw for tickets for tonight need to be found. Music festivals where proof of double vax is needed for a ticket would be another idea.

I do think that the government is right that having taken this extra month we do now need to move on and open up but I would have been a lot more confident about it if we had delivered another 5m vaccinations in that month.

rottenborough

v relevant piece to this thread header:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/07/06/boris-faces-greatest-test-can-stand-firm-against-covid-hysteria/

MaxPB

In related news I did see somewhere that a doctor is claiming a highly effective treatment for long COVID. I'll see if I can dig the article up again. Something for the NHS to trial asap though.

Foxy

NerysHughes said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Why have cases fallen off a cliff in India? There is no way a severe lockdown is possible there

It is the nature of pandemics that waves end. Everything looked rosy in India in February for example...

Pulpstar

NerysHughes said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Why have cases fallen off a cliff in India? There is no way a severe lockdown is possible there

Herd immunity against the delta variant perhaps ? I think the UK had perhaps achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant but with the single jab breakthrough and greater infectiousness of the delta the wall didn't hold.
We don't have herd immunity against delta yet, it will be achieved via further vaccination (2nd jab catchup), nightclub (un & partially vaccinated 18-30) and school spread (5 - 17)

rottenborough

alex_ said:

CD13 said:

At the risk of sounding a bit Sheldon Cooperish, Professor Reicher is a psychologist. Why is he sounding off about long Covid? Mission-creep seems an occupational hazard for some experts in other fields.

I can see the scene now ... "Let me through, I've a degree in Expressive Dance.

Yes, we are well used to the media using rent-a-gob backbenchers as a way of apparently giving an insight into Govt policy. It is a very bad development of this pandemic that the media make no attempt to consider an individual’s area of expertise in their rent-a-hobby-scientist approach throughout the pandemic. Simply having an association with an “expert” committee (whether official or unofficial” is deemed sufficient.

But is that a fault of the media? There seems to be a group of scientists who are employed by universities but have time to spend the whole day on media interviews and sending out tweets and press releases.

I've worked in universities for years in a variety of roles. Very few of the academics I knew would have remotely had the time for all this. Funding bids take up so much time never mind teaching, supervising and so on.

MaxPB

Foxy said:

NerysHughes said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Why have cases fallen off a cliff in India? There is no way a severe lockdown is possible there

It is the nature of pandemics that waves end. Everything looked rosy in India in February for example...

The same is true here and there's a fairly good chance that this will be the last COVID wave in the UK. By the time the next one comes in we'll already have done the majority of booster jabs and I wouldn't be surprised if under 50s we're also offered a dose of one of the other spare vaccines like Novavax as an option. I'd take one in October/November just to be extra sure and I'm sure millions of others would too.

noneoftheabove

As far as I can see the ONS report on long covid does not take any account of the impact of vaccinations or attempt to separate the cases into vaccinated or not. It would be surprising to a layman if vaccines significantly reduced infection rates, hospitalisation, death and infectiousness, but did not reduce long covid too. Quite possible but surprising.

Sandpit

alex_ said:

CD13 said:

At the risk of sounding a bit Sheldon Cooperish, Professor Reicher is a psychologist. Why is he sounding off about long Covid? Mission-creep seems an occupational hazard for some experts in other fields.

I can see the scene now ... "Let me through, I've a degree in Expressive Dance.

Yes, we are well used to the media using rent-a-gob backbenchers as a way of apparently giving an insight into Govt policy. It is a very bad development of this pandemic that the media make no attempt to consider an individual’s area of expertise in their rent-a-hobby-scientist approach throughout the pandemic. Simply having an association with an “expert” committee (whether official or unofficial” is deemed sufficient.

The whole “Independent SAGE” group, and their favourable treatment by the media, has been absolutely terrible.

They have rarely been challenged on their oppositionism, the very misleading name, and in many cases have been presented as if they are actually the scientists advising the government.

MaxPB

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3290d718-ddbe-11eb-bac0-9597568b601f?shareToken=8d29721d2f14f8bcbc381dea32590a93

The report on a potential treatment for long COVID. It makes a lot of sense from a biological mechanism of how the drug works. @Charles does it seem worth trialling?

Malmesbury

Given we are talking about the ONS long covid survey, a link or 2 might help....

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021#duration-of-reported-symptoms-following-confirmed-coronavirus-covid-19-infection

NerysHughes

Pulpstar said:

NerysHughes said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Why have cases fallen off a cliff in India? There is no way a severe lockdown is possible there

Herd immunity against the delta variant perhaps ? I think the UK had perhaps achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant but with the single jab breakthrough and greater infectiousness of the delta the wall didn't hold.
We don't have herd immunity against delta yet, it will be achieved via further vaccination (2nd jab catchup), nightclub (un & partially vaccinated 18-30) and school spread (5 - 17)

India is why I am positive about the next few weeks, it does seem with covid variants the steeper the rise in infections the steeper the fall.

MaxPB

noneoftheabove said:

As far as I can see the ONS report on long covid does not take any account of the impact of vaccinations or attempt to separate the cases into vaccinated or not. It would be surprising to a layman if vaccines significantly reduced infection rates, hospitalisation, death and infectiousness, but did not reduce long covid too. Quite possible but surprising.

It would be absolutely shocking if vaccines didn't reduce long COVID incidence. It's one of the reasons the US, EU and Israel have approved Pfizer for 12-17 year olds as any short term vaccine side effects go away after a few days even if they cause discomfort, long COVID can take months to recover from.

Foxy

noneoftheabove said:

As far as I can see the ONS report on long covid does not take any account of the impact of vaccinations or attempt to separate the cases into vaccinated or not. It would be surprising to a layman if vaccines significantly reduced infection rates, hospitalisation, death and infectiousness, but did not reduce long covid too. Quite possible but surprising.

Indeed, there is some evidence for vaccination as a treatment of long covid.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/vaccination-may-ease-symptoms-of-long-covid

Pulpstar

MaxPB said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3290d718-ddbe-11eb-bac0-9597568b601f?shareToken=8d29721d2f14f8bcbc381dea32590a93

The report on a potential treatment for long COVID. It makes a lot of sense from a biological mechanism of how the drug works. @Charles does it seem worth trialling?

I've linked that story to my friend who has gone through it for over a year now.

RochdalePioneers

Foxy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

*sits back and opens a huge bag of popcorn at south of the wall antics*

Meanwhile north of the wall, the Tory nob cheese Transport spokesman Graham Simpson whines "The SNP have taken their eye off the ball and the virus is threatening to spiral out of control in Scotland" - this apparently being a threat to Scottish summer holidays abroad which if he hadn't noticed started the week before last.

I saw on the news that Raigmore hospital in Inverness is on Black alert, the highest level, with elective surgery cancelled.

https://www.inverness-courier.co.uk/news/raigmore-hospital-at-capacity-as-covid-surge-adds-to-unpr-243752/

Which makes my point. It is not lockdowns that create pressure on non covid services and waiting lists, it is pandemic cases themselves.

Its absolutely up here - we've even had a couple of cases in my village. Its the notion from Scottish Tories that unlike the "let it rip" policy south of the wall that the SNP have allowed the pox to "spiral out of control"...

williamglenn

“ Delta now accounts for 51.7% of new coronavirus cases in the U.S., according to CDC estimates, up from last week's estimate of 26%”

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1412560031439020036

Sandpit

rottenborough said:

alex_ said:

CD13 said:

At the risk of sounding a bit Sheldon Cooperish, Professor Reicher is a psychologist. Why is he sounding off about long Covid? Mission-creep seems an occupational hazard for some experts in other fields.

I can see the scene now ... "Let me through, I've a degree in Expressive Dance.

Yes, we are well used to the media using rent-a-gob backbenchers as a way of apparently giving an insight into Govt policy. It is a very bad development of this pandemic that the media make no attempt to consider an individual’s area of expertise in their rent-a-hobby-scientist approach throughout the pandemic. Simply having an association with an “expert” committee (whether official or unofficial” is deemed sufficient.

But is that a fault of the media? There seems to be a group of scientists who are employed by universities but have time to spend the whole day on media interviews and sending out tweets and press releases.

I've worked in universities for years in a variety of roles. Very few of the academics I knew would have remotely had the time for all this. Funding bids take up so much time never mind teaching, supervising and so on.

The media need to evaluate and select their guests carefully, not simply putting anyone on air who wants to be.

Charles

That tweet should be deleted from the header. It is outrageous. Completely distorts what Whitty said

You quote it in the article immediately beneath. He says there are TWO ways to minimise long COVID - keep cases down AND vaccinate & the government should push for BOTH of those.

It’s a statement of the bleeding obvious but not some massive division in the government vs scientists

Mexicanpete

MaxPB said:

The scientists are having their one last heave moment this week to try and get the 19th delayed by another 4 weeks.

Fortunately we have Conservative Politicians who can see right through their hocus-pocus.

Malmesbury

Pulpstar said:

NerysHughes said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Why have cases fallen off a cliff in India? There is no way a severe lockdown is possible there

Herd immunity against the delta variant perhaps ? I think the UK had perhaps achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant but with the single jab breakthrough and greater infectiousness of the delta the wall didn't hold.
We don't have herd immunity against delta yet, it will be achieved via further vaccination (2nd jab catchup), nightclub (un & partially vaccinated 18-30) and school spread (5 - 17)

The following things have been observed in multiple countries, when COVID is allowed to spread

- it dies back, apparently by itself.
- contrary to some early reports, antibody survey do not show that even a majority of people in the effected areas got it
- after such waves, it takes a considerable time for another wave, despite people returning to normal(ish) behaviour quite rapidly

We had not achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant - what we had was an R below 1 with a combination of vaccines and the restrictions at the time.

Pulpstar

MaxPB said:

noneoftheabove said:

As far as I can see the ONS report on long covid does not take any account of the impact of vaccinations or attempt to separate the cases into vaccinated or not. It would be surprising to a layman if vaccines significantly reduced infection rates, hospitalisation, death and infectiousness, but did not reduce long covid too. Quite possible but surprising.

It would be absolutely shocking if vaccines didn't reduce long COVID incidence. It's one of the reasons the US, EU and Israel have approved Pfizer for 12-17 year olds as any short term vaccine side effects go away after a few days even if they cause discomfort, long COVID can take months to recover from.

All that's needed for the myocarditis with Pfizer is a recommendation not to exercise for a few days after the jab. The only group of young people that probably shouldn't be taking it are athletes in active competition - but that doesn't last forever. Raducanu could get her shot now for instance; England players after the Euros are over
Athletes probably won't be hospitalised, they may not even suffer too badly - but it's a hell of a gamble with their long term peak fitness potential to catch covid unvaxxed imo.

CD13

Mr Sandpit,

"The media need to evaluate and select their guests carefully, not simply putting anyone on air who wants to be."

Unfortunately, I suspect they do evaluate their guests, the better to enhance the particular story they want to start running. Mrs Merton nailed it when she said "Let's have a heated debate."

She said heat not light.

NerysHughes

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

NerysHughes said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Why have cases fallen off a cliff in India? There is no way a severe lockdown is possible there

Herd immunity against the delta variant perhaps ? I think the UK had perhaps achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant but with the single jab breakthrough and greater infectiousness of the delta the wall didn't hold.
We don't have herd immunity against delta yet, it will be achieved via further vaccination (2nd jab catchup), nightclub (un & partially vaccinated 18-30) and school spread (5 - 17)

The following things have been observed in multiple countries, when COVID is allowed to spread

- it dies back, apparently by itself.
- contrary to some early reports, antibody survey do not show that even a majority of people in the effected areas got it
- after such waves, it takes a considerable time for another wave, despite people returning to normal(ish) behaviour quite rapidly

We had not achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant - what we had was an R below 1 with a combination of vaccines and the restrictions at the time.

The idea that a wave of Covid will die back by itself is defintely hard for people to comprehend. I think its human nature to think there to be a human controlled reason for something happening.

MattW

RochdalePioneers said:

*sits back and opens a huge bag of popcorn at south of the wall antics*

Meanwhile north of the wall, the Tory nob cheese Transport spokesman Graham Simpson whines "The SNP have taken their eye off the ball and the virus is threatening to spiral out of control in Scotland" - this apparently being a threat to Scottish summer holidays abroad which if he hadn't noticed started the week before last.

How many countries abroad are people from Scotland allowed to go to?

Do they have vaccine passports yet?

Sean_F

If Whitty does not agree with the government's approach, then he should resign.

Malmesbury

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

NerysHughes said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Why have cases fallen off a cliff in India? There is no way a severe lockdown is possible there

Herd immunity against the delta variant perhaps ? I think the UK had perhaps achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant but with the single jab breakthrough and greater infectiousness of the delta the wall didn't hold.
We don't have herd immunity against delta yet, it will be achieved via further vaccination (2nd jab catchup), nightclub (un & partially vaccinated 18-30) and school spread (5 - 17)

The following things have been observed in multiple countries, when COVID is allowed to spread

- it dies back, apparently by itself.
- contrary to some early reports, antibody survey do not show that even a majority of people in the effected areas got it
- after such waves, it takes a considerable time for another wave, despite people returning to normal(ish) behaviour quite rapidly

We had not achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant - what we had was an R below 1 with a combination of vaccines and the restrictions at the time.

The idea that a wave of Covid will die back by itself is defintely hard for people to comprehend. I think its human nature to think there to be a human controlled reason for something happening.

I said "apparently"

I don't *know* why this happens. I have seen no definitive answer, by a qualified scientist, backed by hard data. Just theories.

RCS thinks that it is caused by people self isolating due to fear.

There is much we don't know about this disease.

turbotubbs

rottenborough said:

Also worth noting this is not just ministers vs scientists. A significant strand of the conservative party wants unlocking and end to restrictions. Rightly or wrongly, their view is it is time for personal responsibility and risk assessment to come to the fore.

Plus its not all scientists. One thing I am frustrated about is while we have a blizzard of data, some is not being put out regularly. How old are the people who are dying of covid currently. I think i found a chart on the corona dashboard that suggests hardly anyone under 60. So the effect of the vaccination is exactly what it was intended - shift the risks from covid to much more like flu. We don't lockdown for flu (you can argue that we might in future do other mitigations such as masks etc) but the time is right now to get the economy moving, to give people the chance of holidays, and frankly to have a large but quick exit wave. Scotland looks like it is over the worst of its wave - might not be that long before England joins it.

Cookie

On thread: '40% of those infected get long covid" - is this not, er, utter bollocks? This stretches credibility miles and miles and miles beyond breaking point.

Sean_F

Cookie said:

On thread: '40% of those infected get long covid" - is this not, er, utter bollocks? This stretches credibility miles and miles and miles beyond breaking point.

That 40% figure is pulled out of his arse.

Pulpstar

Malmesbury said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

NerysHughes said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Why have cases fallen off a cliff in India? There is no way a severe lockdown is possible there

Herd immunity against the delta variant perhaps ? I think the UK had perhaps achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant but with the single jab breakthrough and greater infectiousness of the delta the wall didn't hold.
We don't have herd immunity against delta yet, it will be achieved via further vaccination (2nd jab catchup), nightclub (un & partially vaccinated 18-30) and school spread (5 - 17)

The following things have been observed in multiple countries, when COVID is allowed to spread

- it dies back, apparently by itself.
- contrary to some early reports, antibody survey do not show that even a majority of people in the effected areas got it
- after such waves, it takes a considerable time for another wave, despite people returning to normal(ish) behaviour quite rapidly

We had not achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant - what we had was an R below 1 with a combination of vaccines and the restrictions at the time.

The idea that a wave of Covid will die back by itself is defintely hard for people to comprehend. I think its human nature to think there to be a human controlled reason for something happening.

I said "apparently"

I don't *know* why this happens. I have seen no definitive answer, by a qualified scientist, backed by hard data. Just theories.

RCS thinks that it is caused by people self isolating due to fear.

There is much we don't know about this disease.

Isn't it always a combination of a partially immune population and behaviour altered both by the state and individuals ?
A sort of pseudo, not true herd immunity kicks in ?

Cookie

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

NerysHughes said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Why have cases fallen off a cliff in India? There is no way a severe lockdown is possible there

Herd immunity against the delta variant perhaps ? I think the UK had perhaps achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant but with the single jab breakthrough and greater infectiousness of the delta the wall didn't hold.
We don't have herd immunity against delta yet, it will be achieved via further vaccination (2nd jab catchup), nightclub (un & partially vaccinated 18-30) and school spread (5 - 17)

The following things have been observed in multiple countries, when COVID is allowed to spread

- it dies back, apparently by itself.
- contrary to some early reports, antibody survey do not show that even a majority of people in the effected areas got it
- after such waves, it takes a considerable time for another wave, despite people returning to normal(ish) behaviour quite rapidly

We had not achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant - what we had was an R below 1 with a combination of vaccines and the restrictions at the time.

The idea that a wave of Covid will die back by itself is defintely hard for people to comprehend. I think its human nature to think there to be a human controlled reason for something happening.

Yes, we're still quite medieval in our mentality. "If only we can cause ourselves enough hardship, if only we can sacrifice enough, then the plague will go away."

NerysHughes

Malmesbury said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

NerysHughes said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Why have cases fallen off a cliff in India? There is no way a severe lockdown is possible there

Herd immunity against the delta variant perhaps ? I think the UK had perhaps achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant but with the single jab breakthrough and greater infectiousness of the delta the wall didn't hold.
We don't have herd immunity against delta yet, it will be achieved via further vaccination (2nd jab catchup), nightclub (un & partially vaccinated 18-30) and school spread (5 - 17)

The following things have been observed in multiple countries, when COVID is allowed to spread

- it dies back, apparently by itself.
- contrary to some early reports, antibody survey do not show that even a majority of people in the effected areas got it
- after such waves, it takes a considerable time for another wave, despite people returning to normal(ish) behaviour quite rapidly

We had not achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant - what we had was an R below 1 with a combination of vaccines and the restrictions at the time.

The idea that a wave of Covid will die back by itself is defintely hard for people to comprehend. I think its human nature to think there to be a human controlled reason for something happening.

I said "apparently"

I don't *know* why this happens. I have seen no definitive answer, by a qualified scientist, backed by hard data. Just theories.

RCS thinks that it is caused by people self isolating due to fear.

There is much we don't know about this disease.

Your last sentence sums up Covid

Pulpstar

Cookie said:

On thread: '40% of those infected get long covid" - is this not, er, utter bollocks? This stretches credibility miles and miles and miles beyond breaking point.

It's complete mince even amongst the unvaxxed. 7 - 15% is what I've seen (And would broadly tie in with my anecdotal experience); it MUST be lower amongst the vaccinated would make no epidemiological sense for it not to be so.

another_richard

Cookie said:

On thread: '40% of those infected get long covid" - is this not, er, utter bollocks? This stretches credibility miles and miles and miles beyond breaking point.

He of course does not define 'long covid'.

HYUFD

Of course in reality most of the changes from the end of this month and August ie quarantine free travel to amber list countries and no need to self isolate after contact with a positive case, will only apply to the double jabbed anyway. So it is really only Freedom Day for the double vaccinated from July 19th.

Mask wearing becoming voluntary is the only other major change most of us will notice but those of us still waiting for our second jab will likely keep wearing a mask in shops and on public transport until that point anyway

TimS

Cookie said:

On thread: '40% of those infected get long covid" - is this not, er, utter bollocks? This stretches credibility miles and miles and miles beyond breaking point.

The Long Covid thing is frustrating. From everything we've seen this looks to be classic post-viral syndrome, something people have been suffering with, and which has been ignored or ridiculed by the medical establishment, since the beginning of time. You catch a virus your immune system is not used to, like glandular fever in your fresher's year, and it takes months or sometimes years to recover.

It was always dismissed and little research was put into it. Now because it's a political stick to beat people with and has a new fancy moniker, it's become trendy. What's the betting once the pandemic is over it will be quietly forgotten again and people will be left to suffer the disinterest and condescension of medics ("probably psychosomatic") any time they have prolonged symptoms after an infection.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Hughes, "I think its human nature to think there to be a human controlled reason for something happening."

Couldn't agree more.

williamglenn

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

NerysHughes said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Why have cases fallen off a cliff in India? There is no way a severe lockdown is possible there

Herd immunity against the delta variant perhaps ? I think the UK had perhaps achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant but with the single jab breakthrough and greater infectiousness of the delta the wall didn't hold.
We don't have herd immunity against delta yet, it will be achieved via further vaccination (2nd jab catchup), nightclub (un & partially vaccinated 18-30) and school spread (5 - 17)

The following things have been observed in multiple countries, when COVID is allowed to spread

- it dies back, apparently by itself.
- contrary to some early reports, antibody survey do not show that even a majority of people in the effected areas got it
- after such waves, it takes a considerable time for another wave, despite people returning to normal(ish) behaviour quite rapidly

We had not achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant - what we had was an R below 1 with a combination of vaccines and the restrictions at the time.

The idea that a wave of Covid will die back by itself is defintely hard for people to comprehend. I think its human nature to think there to be a human controlled reason for something happening.

I said "apparently"

I don't *know* why this happens. I have seen no definitive answer, by a qualified scientist, backed by hard data. Just theories.

RCS thinks that it is caused by people self isolating due to fear.

There is much we don't know about this disease.

Isn't it always a combination of a partially immune population and behaviour altered both by the state and individuals ?
A sort of pseudo, not true herd immunity kicks in ?

Yes this pattern tells us something about social dynamics rather than about the virus per se.

HYUFD

Labour urges a political boycott of the Beijing Olympics if the UN remains denied access to Xinjiang
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1412673374552313859?s=20

mwadams

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

NerysHughes said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Why have cases fallen off a cliff in India? There is no way a severe lockdown is possible there

Herd immunity against the delta variant perhaps ? I think the UK had perhaps achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant but with the single jab breakthrough and greater infectiousness of the delta the wall didn't hold.
We don't have herd immunity against delta yet, it will be achieved via further vaccination (2nd jab catchup), nightclub (un & partially vaccinated 18-30) and school spread (5 - 17)

The following things have been observed in multiple countries, when COVID is allowed to spread

- it dies back, apparently by itself.
- contrary to some early reports, antibody survey do not show that even a majority of people in the effected areas got it
- after such waves, it takes a considerable time for another wave, despite people returning to normal(ish) behaviour quite rapidly

We had not achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant - what we had was an R below 1 with a combination of vaccines and the restrictions at the time.

The idea that a wave of Covid will die back by itself is defintely hard for people to comprehend. I think its human nature to think there to be a human controlled reason for something happening.

I said "apparently"

I don't *know* why this happens. I have seen no definitive answer, by a qualified scientist, backed by hard data. Just theories.

RCS thinks that it is caused by people self isolating due to fear.

There is much we don't know about this disease.

Isn't it always a combination of a partially immune population and behaviour altered both by the state and individuals ?
A sort of pseudo, not true herd immunity kicks in ?

When we come back and do the analysis on this, I suspect we are going to find that *a lot* more people were isolating a lot more seriously than the noisiest (especially big city-dwelling) people think.

NickPalmer

Sean_F said:

Cookie said:

On thread: '40% of those infected get long covid" - is this not, er, utter bollocks? This stretches credibility miles and miles and miles beyond breaking point.

That 40% figure is pulled out of his arse.

Not necessarily, though there are various estimates, some higher than that - it depends partly how you define it. See e.g. https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/long-covid

I think there is an element in your reactions of not wanting it to be true, which I share, but we need to keep looking at the data objectively.

another_richard

RochdalePioneers said:

Foxy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

*sits back and opens a huge bag of popcorn at south of the wall antics*

Meanwhile north of the wall, the Tory nob cheese Transport spokesman Graham Simpson whines "The SNP have taken their eye off the ball and the virus is threatening to spiral out of control in Scotland" - this apparently being a threat to Scottish summer holidays abroad which if he hadn't noticed started the week before last.

I saw on the news that Raigmore hospital in Inverness is on Black alert, the highest level, with elective surgery cancelled.

https://www.inverness-courier.co.uk/news/raigmore-hospital-at-capacity-as-covid-surge-adds-to-unpr-243752/

Which makes my point. It is not lockdowns that create pressure on non covid services and waiting lists, it is pandemic cases themselves.

Its absolutely up here - we've even had a couple of cases in my village. Its the notion from Scottish Tories that unlike the "let it rip" policy south of the wall that the SNP have allowed the pox to "spiral out of control"...

Sturgeon though has bolloxed things in the last few months.

Did she put any restrictions on Scots travelling to and from India ?

After all she was keen on travel restrictions to Lancashire.

But not travel restrictions on football fans going to London.

rkrkrk

Well this is depressing news to wake up to... have a lot more confidence in Whitty & the scientists than Boris...

It might be too late to do much to reduce spread.
Even a full lockdown now would probably take a couple of months to get cases down.

mwadams

Pulpstar said:

Cookie said:

On thread: '40% of those infected get long covid" - is this not, er, utter bollocks? This stretches credibility miles and miles and miles beyond breaking point.

It's complete mince even amongst the unvaxxed. 7 - 15% is what I've seen (And would broadly tie in with my anecdotal experience); it MUST be lower amongst the vaccinated would make no epidemiological sense for it not to be so.

Here's a February analysis, to add to the gaiety of the thread. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/962830/s1079-ons-update-on-long-covid-prevalence-estimate.pdf

ETA: These correspond closely with the ONS data from April

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021

noneoftheabove

Cookie said:

On thread: '40% of those infected get long covid" - is this not, er, utter bollocks? This stretches credibility miles and miles and miles beyond breaking point.

ONS estimate was 1 million long covid on 2 May. Probably need an estimate of how many covid cases there had been til about end of Feb to get a long covid % of those infected number from it. The problem with that is we didnt have testing for the first wave so dont know how many had it back then.

Whether it is 40% or not, it is a significant number but hopefully comes down with vaccination, also treatment should improve as we learn more about it.

Foxy

Cookie said:

On thread: '40% of those infected get long covid" - is this not, er, utter bollocks? This stretches credibility miles and miles and miles beyond breaking point.

It depends on the definition of long covid, but there are large numbers with major symptoms.

We saw this after SARS too:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20008700/

According to the ONS, it is more like 14% that get long covid, with a third of those having severe limitation of activities:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021

CaptainMatt

Cookie said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

NerysHughes said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Why have cases fallen off a cliff in India? There is no way a severe lockdown is possible there

Herd immunity against the delta variant perhaps ? I think the UK had perhaps achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant but with the single jab breakthrough and greater infectiousness of the delta the wall didn't hold.
We don't have herd immunity against delta yet, it will be achieved via further vaccination (2nd jab catchup), nightclub (un & partially vaccinated 18-30) and school spread (5 - 17)

The following things have been observed in multiple countries, when COVID is allowed to spread

- it dies back, apparently by itself.
- contrary to some early reports, antibody survey do not show that even a majority of people in the effected areas got it
- after such waves, it takes a considerable time for another wave, despite people returning to normal(ish) behaviour quite rapidly

We had not achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant - what we had was an R below 1 with a combination of vaccines and the restrictions at the time.

The idea that a wave of Covid will die back by itself is defintely hard for people to comprehend. I think its human nature to think there to be a human controlled reason for something happening.

Yes, we're still quite medieval in our mentality. "If only we can cause ourselves enough hardship, if only we can sacrifice enough, then the plague will go away."

It's going to be very interesting to see future scientific study of the reaction to the pandemic. My feeling is a lot of the rise of variants, etc. Is due to lockdowns and distancing driving natural selection, much not so than past pandemics. There are scientists who believe we will see the same natural selection with vaccines (I think and very much hope this is wrong). Lockdowns also extended the duration of the pandemic relative to, say, 1918. Not saying any of this was wrong to do, just that there are a lot of trade offs that will be researched more in the future and hopefully understood better, and will make for interesting reading!

Pulpstar

mwadams said:

Pulpstar said:

Cookie said:

On thread: '40% of those infected get long covid" - is this not, er, utter bollocks? This stretches credibility miles and miles and miles beyond breaking point.

It's complete mince even amongst the unvaxxed. 7 - 15% is what I've seen (And would broadly tie in with my anecdotal experience); it MUST be lower amongst the vaccinated would make no epidemiological sense for it not to be so.

Here's a February analysis, to add to the gaiety of the thread. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/962830/s1079-ons-update-on-long-covid-prevalence-estimate.pdf

ETA: These correspond closely with the ONS data from April

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021

@Nickpalmer 9.8% (7.4% to 13.1%) had symptoms at 12 weeks(Figure 1)

If you shake something off quicker than 12 weeks, it's not "long" anything.

eek

CaptainMatt said:

Cookie said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

NerysHughes said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Why have cases fallen off a cliff in India? There is no way a severe lockdown is possible there

Herd immunity against the delta variant perhaps ? I think the UK had perhaps achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant but with the single jab breakthrough and greater infectiousness of the delta the wall didn't hold.
We don't have herd immunity against delta yet, it will be achieved via further vaccination (2nd jab catchup), nightclub (un & partially vaccinated 18-30) and school spread (5 - 17)

The following things have been observed in multiple countries, when COVID is allowed to spread

- it dies back, apparently by itself.
- contrary to some early reports, antibody survey do not show that even a majority of people in the effected areas got it
- after such waves, it takes a considerable time for another wave, despite people returning to normal(ish) behaviour quite rapidly

We had not achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant - what we had was an R below 1 with a combination of vaccines and the restrictions at the time.

The idea that a wave of Covid will die back by itself is defintely hard for people to comprehend. I think its human nature to think there to be a human controlled reason for something happening.

Yes, we're still quite medieval in our mentality. "If only we can cause ourselves enough hardship, if only we can sacrifice enough, then the plague will go away."

It's going to be very interesting to see future scientific study of the reaction to the pandemic. My feeling is a lot of the rise of variants, etc. Is due to lockdowns and distancing driving natural selection, much not so than past pandemics. There are scientists who believe we will see the same natural selection with vaccines (I think and very much hope this is wrong). Lockdowns also extended the duration of the pandemic relative to, say, 1918. Not saying any of this was wrong to do, just that there are a lot of trade offs that will be researched more in the future and hopefully understood better, and will make for interesting reading!

Spanish flu had 4 waves from early 1918 to late 1920...

That to me is 3 years and we have currently hit 16 months.

Foxy

Cookie said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

NerysHughes said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Why have cases fallen off a cliff in India? There is no way a severe lockdown is possible there

Herd immunity against the delta variant perhaps ? I think the UK had perhaps achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant but with the single jab breakthrough and greater infectiousness of the delta the wall didn't hold.
We don't have herd immunity against delta yet, it will be achieved via further vaccination (2nd jab catchup), nightclub (un & partially vaccinated 18-30) and school spread (5 - 17)

The following things have been observed in multiple countries, when COVID is allowed to spread

- it dies back, apparently by itself.
- contrary to some early reports, antibody survey do not show that even a majority of people in the effected areas got it
- after such waves, it takes a considerable time for another wave, despite people returning to normal(ish) behaviour quite rapidly

We had not achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant - what we had was an R below 1 with a combination of vaccines and the restrictions at the time.

The idea that a wave of Covid will die back by itself is defintely hard for people to comprehend. I think its human nature to think there to be a human controlled reason for something happening.

Yes, we're still quite medieval in our mentality. "If only we can cause ourselves enough hardship, if only we can sacrifice enough, then the plague will go away."

What we need is a Mass...

https://images.app.goo.gl/NVXrqUFBEXkBg4iJA

mwadams

Foxy said:

Cookie said:

On thread: '40% of those infected get long covid" - is this not, er, utter bollocks? This stretches credibility miles and miles and miles beyond breaking point.

It depends on the definition of long covid, but there are large numbers with major symptoms.

We saw this after SARS too:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20008700/

According to the ONS, it is more like 14% that get long covid, with a third of those having severe limitation of activities:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021

40% or 15% - it's not an order of magnitude error; that is indeed "a lot of people". And the majority [ETA: of new cases from now] will be young people; I would not be surprised to see a measurable economic impact over the next 30-50 years.

Sandpit

another_richard said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Foxy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

*sits back and opens a huge bag of popcorn at south of the wall antics*

Meanwhile north of the wall, the Tory nob cheese Transport spokesman Graham Simpson whines "The SNP have taken their eye off the ball and the virus is threatening to spiral out of control in Scotland" - this apparently being a threat to Scottish summer holidays abroad which if he hadn't noticed started the week before last.

I saw on the news that Raigmore hospital in Inverness is on Black alert, the highest level, with elective surgery cancelled.

https://www.inverness-courier.co.uk/news/raigmore-hospital-at-capacity-as-covid-surge-adds-to-unpr-243752/

Which makes my point. It is not lockdowns that create pressure on non covid services and waiting lists, it is pandemic cases themselves.

Its absolutely up here - we've even had a couple of cases in my village. Its the notion from Scottish Tories that unlike the "let it rip" policy south of the wall that the SNP have allowed the pox to "spiral out of control"...

Sturgeon though has bolloxed things in the last few months.

Did she put any restrictions on Scots travelling to and from India ?

After all she was keen on travel restrictions to Lancashire.

But not travel restrictions on football fans going to London.

Wait until the furlough scheme ends, but she still wants to keep English tourists out of Scotland.

NickPalmer

Charles said:

That tweet should be deleted from the header. It is outrageous. Completely distorts what Whitty said

You quote it in the article immediately beneath. He says there are TWO ways to minimise long COVID - keep cases down AND vaccinate & the government should push for BOTH of those.

It’s a statement of the bleeding obvious but not some massive division in the government vs scientists

No, if you recommend A+B and I decide to do A and not B, that's a disagreement. The Government has decided that pressure for relaxation, economic considerations and the fact that it's summer so we're more outdoors mean that it's a good idea to allow more Covid now and hopefully get it over with, not less Covid. It's an arguable position and I'm not deriding it, but it's different from Whitty's stated position, as the tweet points out.

We need a bit less outrage in both directions as we get through this maze.

Malmesbury

williamglenn said:

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

NerysHughes said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Why have cases fallen off a cliff in India? There is no way a severe lockdown is possible there

Herd immunity against the delta variant perhaps ? I think the UK had perhaps achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant but with the single jab breakthrough and greater infectiousness of the delta the wall didn't hold.
We don't have herd immunity against delta yet, it will be achieved via further vaccination (2nd jab catchup), nightclub (un & partially vaccinated 18-30) and school spread (5 - 17)

The following things have been observed in multiple countries, when COVID is allowed to spread

- it dies back, apparently by itself.
- contrary to some early reports, antibody survey do not show that even a majority of people in the effected areas got it
- after such waves, it takes a considerable time for another wave, despite people returning to normal(ish) behaviour quite rapidly

We had not achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant - what we had was an R below 1 with a combination of vaccines and the restrictions at the time.

The idea that a wave of Covid will die back by itself is defintely hard for people to comprehend. I think its human nature to think there to be a human controlled reason for something happening.

I said "apparently"

I don't *know* why this happens. I have seen no definitive answer, by a qualified scientist, backed by hard data. Just theories.

RCS thinks that it is caused by people self isolating due to fear.

There is much we don't know about this disease.

Isn't it always a combination of a partially immune population and behaviour altered both by the state and individuals ?
A sort of pseudo, not true herd immunity kicks in ?

Yes this pattern tells us something about social dynamics rather than about the virus per se.

The question is then - Why, after people relax, it doesn't immediately return?

After the previous waves in India, people went back to doing their thing. Until Delta showed up.....

RochdalePioneers

Charles said:

That tweet should be deleted from the header. It is outrageous. Completely distorts what Whitty said

You quote it in the article immediately beneath. He says there are TWO ways to minimise long COVID - keep cases down AND vaccinate & the government should push for BOTH of those.

It’s a statement of the bleeding obvious but not some massive division in the government vs scientists

Stop asking questions you plebs! Doff your cap and tug your forelock, there's a good chap.

Cookie

Mexicanpete said:

SouthamObserver said:

There does seem to be a hell of a lot of downside for the government in the way they are acting over this. It's a huge gamble.

PB Tories claim Johnson is a lucky General. Let's hope in this instance that assertion holds true.

But also a massive downside in not opening up.
Lockdown kills people. It's not a case of 'well, we'll be a bit poorer and more miserable but at least we'll be safe', though for me, my balance of risks is that I would rather be richer and happier and at slightly more risk of being dead. But as people only seem to care about health while wealth and happiness can go hang, we should make the point that further lockdown will mean health outcomes will be worse.

There is no upside to more lockdowns.

Sandpit

CD13 said:

Mr Sandpit,

"The media need to evaluate and select their guests carefully, not simply putting anyone on air who wants to be."

Unfortunately, I suspect they do evaluate their guests, the better to enhance the particular story they want to start running. Mrs Merton nailed it when she said "Let's have a heated debate."

She said heat not light.

Sadly, I think you’re right. More interested in entertaining than informing, which is a sad state of affairs in a situation like a pandemic.

Nigelb

Cyclefree said:

Foxy said:

Cyclefree said:

Gardenwalker said:

FPT

My issue with China, apart from the way it treats its own people, is that it advances the authoritarian, anti-democratic surveillance state as a model of development.

Ultimately, that’s a threat to our way of life, or perhaps our children’s way of life.

One of the best things Britain can do, in my opinion, is better uphold democracy, liberty and the rule of law in *this* country, thereby acting as an example to others.

We did this quite well for a hundred years or so.

Fun fact, I was taught by someone later outed as a Chinese spy at University.

Fat chance when we've got Sunak wanting a more "nuanced" relationship with China, "nuanced" meaning "we promise we won't ever criticise you".

The tables have turned since the 19th century. We now allow China to buy up and modernise our infrastructure, and are reliant on Chinese capital and investment.

Gardenwalker said:

Cyclefree said:

Gardenwalker said:

FPT

My issue with China, apart from the way it treats its own people, is that it advances the authoritarian, anti-democratic surveillance state as a model of development.

Ultimately, that’s a threat to our way of life, or perhaps our children’s way of life.

One of the best things Britain can do, in my opinion, is better uphold democracy, liberty and the rule of law in *this* country, thereby acting as an example to others.

We did this quite well for a hundred years or so.

Fun fact, I was taught by someone later outed as a Chinese spy at University.

Fat chance when we've got Sunak wanting a more "nuanced" relationship with China, "nuanced" meaning "we promise we won't ever criticise you".

We do have to live with China somehow. We can’t wish it away. Therefore, I’m reserving judgment on Sunak’s comments.

I don’t even especially think it necessary for the govt to “criticise” China, but I do want it to promote our values, and protect our strategic industries and technologies.

There is a difference between living with a country and bending over and holding our ankles.

Making pacts with the devil is never a good idea. And yes I do believe China under the current regime is a devil. It is a threat to freedom and liberty and democracy. The more we depend on it, the more that will threaten our freedom, liberty and democracy.

Except that the move is now (albeit slight so far) away from dependence. The recent sharp spike in transport costs, and the massive delays in getting some types of goods out of China, have opened quite a few peoples eyes, irrespective of any human rights objections.
Sunak and the government will be judged by their deeds rather than his words; I don't have any great confidence in them either, but we'll see.

RochdalePioneers

another_richard said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Foxy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

*sits back and opens a huge bag of popcorn at south of the wall antics*

Meanwhile north of the wall, the Tory nob cheese Transport spokesman Graham Simpson whines "The SNP have taken their eye off the ball and the virus is threatening to spiral out of control in Scotland" - this apparently being a threat to Scottish summer holidays abroad which if he hadn't noticed started the week before last.

I saw on the news that Raigmore hospital in Inverness is on Black alert, the highest level, with elective surgery cancelled.

https://www.inverness-courier.co.uk/news/raigmore-hospital-at-capacity-as-covid-surge-adds-to-unpr-243752/

Which makes my point. It is not lockdowns that create pressure on non covid services and waiting lists, it is pandemic cases themselves.

Its absolutely up here - we've even had a couple of cases in my village. Its the notion from Scottish Tories that unlike the "let it rip" policy south of the wall that the SNP have allowed the pox to "spiral out of control"...

Sturgeon though has bolloxed things in the last few months.

Did she put any restrictions on Scots travelling to and from India ?

After all she was keen on travel restrictions to Lancashire.

But not travel restrictions on football fans going to London.

All true! Again I am not an advocate for the SNP having campaigned against them in the election. But look at the source of the criticism. For the Toriss to complain about the SNP performance north of the border when the accusations are that they have done most - but not all - of the Tory cock-ups south of the border is screaming hypocricy.

moonshine

Gardenwalker said:

Cyclefree said:

Gardenwalker said:

FPT

My issue with China, apart from the way it treats its own people, is that it advances the authoritarian, anti-democratic surveillance state as a model of development.

Ultimately, that’s a threat to our way of life, or perhaps our children’s way of life.

One of the best things Britain can do, in my opinion, is better uphold democracy, liberty and the rule of law in *this* country, thereby acting as an example to others.

We did this quite well for a hundred years or so.

Fun fact, I was taught by someone later outed as a Chinese spy at University.

Fat chance when we've got Sunak wanting a more "nuanced" relationship with China, "nuanced" meaning "we promise we won't ever criticise you".

We do have to live with China somehow. We can’t wish it away. Therefore, I’m reserving judgment on Sunak’s comments.

I don’t even especially think it necessary for the govt to “criticise” China, but I do want it to promote our values, and protect our strategic industries and technologies.

Sunak’s comments on China exhibit no more or less glib naivety on the subject than Cameron, Osborne and Johnson. All the same, they exclude him as a serious candidate for PM in my mind.

another_richard

Pulpstar said:

mwadams said:

Pulpstar said:

Cookie said:

On thread: '40% of those infected get long covid" - is this not, er, utter bollocks? This stretches credibility miles and miles and miles beyond breaking point.

It's complete mince even amongst the unvaxxed. 7 - 15% is what I've seen (And would broadly tie in with my anecdotal experience); it MUST be lower amongst the vaccinated would make no epidemiological sense for it not to be so.

Here's a February analysis, to add to the gaiety of the thread. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/962830/s1079-ons-update-on-long-covid-prevalence-estimate.pdf

ETA: These correspond closely with the ONS data from April

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021

@Nickpalmer 9.8% (7.4% to 13.1%) had symptoms at 12 weeks(Figure 1)

If you shake something off quicker than 12 weeks, it's not "long" anything.

This is a bit old, from last September, but would suggest under 5% during the first wave.

Up to 60,000 people in the UK may have been suffering from “long Covid” for more than three months, unable to get the care they need to recover from prolonged and debilitating symptoms.

Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London who runs the app-based Covid symptom study, said around 300,000 people had reported symptoms lasting for more than a month.

A minority have been suffering for longer; up to 60,000 people have reported having symptoms for more than three months. Some cases are mild, but others are seriously debilitating, with breathlessness and fatigue.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/sep/08/60000-may-have-long-covid-for-more-than-three-months-uk-study

Pulpstar

CaptainMatt said:

Cookie said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

NerysHughes said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Why have cases fallen off a cliff in India? There is no way a severe lockdown is possible there

Herd immunity against the delta variant perhaps ? I think the UK had perhaps achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant but with the single jab breakthrough and greater infectiousness of the delta the wall didn't hold.
We don't have herd immunity against delta yet, it will be achieved via further vaccination (2nd jab catchup), nightclub (un & partially vaccinated 18-30) and school spread (5 - 17)

The following things have been observed in multiple countries, when COVID is allowed to spread

- it dies back, apparently by itself.
- contrary to some early reports, antibody survey do not show that even a majority of people in the effected areas got it
- after such waves, it takes a considerable time for another wave, despite people returning to normal(ish) behaviour quite rapidly

We had not achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant - what we had was an R below 1 with a combination of vaccines and the restrictions at the time.

The idea that a wave of Covid will die back by itself is defintely hard for people to comprehend. I think its human nature to think there to be a human controlled reason for something happening.

Yes, we're still quite medieval in our mentality. "If only we can cause ourselves enough hardship, if only we can sacrifice enough, then the plague will go away."

It's going to be very interesting to see future scientific study of the reaction to the pandemic. My feeling is a lot of the rise of variants, etc. Is due to lockdowns and distancing driving natural selection, much not so than past pandemics. There are scientists who believe we will see the same natural selection with vaccines (I think and very much hope this is wrong). Lockdowns also extended the duration of the pandemic relative to, say, 1918. Not saying any of this was wrong to do, just that there are a lot of trade offs that will be researched more in the future and hopefully understood better, and will make for interesting reading!

Lockdowns do extend the duration of the pandemic, that can't not really be true - but they do save lives if you know immunity via vaccination is arriving. All the variants so far have arisen in high prevalence unvaccinated conditions, it's a logical fallacy to compare this to say antibiotic resistance.

Alpha - B.1.1.7 - first detected in UK
Beta - B.1.351 - South Africa
Gamma - P.1 - Brazil
Delta - B.1.617.2 - India
Epsilon - B.1.427/B.1.429 - USA
Zeta - P.2 - Brazil
Eta - B.1.525 - Nigeria
Theta P.3 - Philippines
Iota - B.1.526 - USA
Kappa - B.1.617.1 - India
Lambda - C.37 - Peru (The latest)

williamglenn

Malmesbury said:

williamglenn said:

Pulpstar said:

Malmesbury said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

Pulpstar said:

NerysHughes said:

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Chris Whitty contradicting what he said at the presser.

Not half. Although probably we need the full exchange.

Whitty was adamant on Monday that getting the exit wave out of the way in summer was best plan. How does that square with hell for leather suppression (which implies total lockdown based on their previous thinking)?

To be honest, Delta looks so infectious that I think only the most severe lockdowns would control it. Minor measures look pointless.

Why have cases fallen off a cliff in India? There is no way a severe lockdown is possible there

Herd immunity against the delta variant perhaps ? I think the UK had perhaps achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant but with the single jab breakthrough and greater infectiousness of the delta the wall didn't hold.
We don't have herd immunity against delta yet, it will be achieved via further vaccination (2nd jab catchup), nightclub (un & partially vaccinated 18-30) and school spread (5 - 17)

The following things have been observed in multiple countries, when COVID is allowed to spread

- it dies back, apparently by itself.
- contrary to some early reports, antibody survey do not show that even a majority of people in the effected areas got it
- after such waves, it takes a considerable time for another wave, despite people returning to normal(ish) behaviour quite rapidly

We had not achieved herd immunity against the alpha variant - what we had was an R below 1 with a combination of vaccines and the restrictions at the time.

The idea that a wave of Covid will die back by itself is defintely hard for people to comprehend. I think its human nature to think there to be a human controlled reason for something happening.

I said "apparently"

I don't *know* why this happens. I have seen no definitive answer, by a qualified scientist, backed by hard data. Just theories.

RCS thinks that it is caused by people self isolating due to fear.

There is much we don't know about this disease.

Isn't it always a combination of a partially immune population and behaviour altered both by the state and individuals ?
A sort of pseudo, not true herd immunity kicks in ?

Yes this pattern tells us something about social dynamics rather than about the virus per se.

The question is then - Why, after people relax, it doesn't immediately return?

After the previous waves in India, people went back to doing their thing. Until Delta showed up.....

Each wave is made up of lots of local infection chains. If those chains run out of new people to infect and can’t cross over into an adjacent social bubble, then the chain dies out. My supposition would be that we are much less connected than you would intuitively think.

Cookie

NickPalmer said:

Sean_F said:

Cookie said:

On thread: '40% of those infected get long covid" - is this not, er, utter bollocks? This stretches credibility miles and miles and miles beyond breaking point.

That 40% figure is pulled out of his arse.

Not necessarily, though there are various estimates, some higher than that - it depends partly how you define it. See e.g. https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/long-covid

I think there is an element in your reactions of not wanting it to be true, which I share, but we need to keep looking at the data objectively.

It's very much a generalising from myself approach - but I know dozens of people who've had covid, and none who have had long covid. Those I know who have had it are concentrated in the 40s/50s and children/teens demographics - maybe those demographics get it less?

CarlottaVance

MaxPB said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3290d718-ddbe-11eb-bac0-9597568b601f?shareToken=8d29721d2f14f8bcbc381dea32590a93

The report on a potential treatment for long COVID. It makes a lot of sense from a biological mechanism of how the drug works. @Charles does it seem worth trialling?

How it works:

https://berlincures.de/pipeline/

NerysHughes

another_richard said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Foxy said:

RochdalePioneers said:

*sits back and opens a huge bag of popcorn at south of the wall antics*

Meanwhile north of the wall, the Tory nob cheese Transport spokesman Graham Simpson whines "The SNP have taken their eye off the ball and the virus is threatening to spiral out of control in Scotland" - this apparently being a threat to Scottish summer holidays abroad which if he hadn't noticed started the week before last.

I saw on the news that Raigmore hospital in Inverness is on Black alert, the highest level, with elective surgery cancelled.

https://www.inverness-courier.co.uk/news/raigmore-hospital-at-capacity-as-covid-surge-adds-to-unpr-243752/

Which makes my point. It is not lockdowns that create pressure on non covid services and waiting lists, it is pandemic cases themselves.

Its absolutely up here - we've even had a couple of cases in my village. Its the notion from Scottish Tories that unlike the "let it rip" policy south of the wall that the SNP have allowed the pox to "spiral out of control"...

Sturgeon though has bolloxed things in the last few months.

Did she put any restrictions on Scots travelling to and from India ?

After all she was keen on travel restrictions to Lancashire.

But not travel restrictions on football fans going to London.

She hasn't seemed to be on TV so much since Covid cases went up in Scotland

Foxy

mwadams said:

Foxy said:

Cookie said:

On thread: '40% of those infected get long covid" - is this not, er, utter bollocks? This stretches credibility miles and miles and miles beyond breaking point.

It depends on the definition of long covid, but there are large numbers with major symptoms.

We saw this after SARS too:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20008700/

According to the ONS, it is more like 14% that get long covid, with a third of those having severe limitation of activities:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021

40% or 15% - it's not an order of magnitude error; that is indeed "a lot of people". And the majority [ETA: of new cases from now] will be young people; I would not be surprised to see a measurable economic impact over the next 30-50 years.

Yes, from the ONS, the highest rates were in health workers, females, those with preexisting conditions, social deprivation, and peaked in the 35-49 year olds. The rates in younger ages are not trivial though: