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What happened in Batley and Spen at the May 2019 Euro elections – politicalbetting.com
What happened in Batley and Spen at the May 2019 Euro elections – politicalbetting.com
The big news on the eve of the by-election is that LAB figures are saying they only have a 5-10% chance of holding the seat. This looks like a classic case of expectation management to deflect some of the negatives of a possible loss. This “revelation” might also be part of an effort to get out the vote tomorrow.
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It plots 7-day rolling Cases, Admissions and Deaths on a Base-2 log scale. It is intended to make all 3 measures comparable more easily.
What is clear is that the rate of increase of admissions is significantly less than it was in the last wave (angle of grey lines). Also when we reached 16K daily cases in the last wave, there were twice as many hospitalisations and deaths were over 4 times bigger (vertical black lines are comparisons).
Hospitalisations are also looking like they may be slowing their rate of increase and deaths remain very low. Another week's worth of data should hopefully show conclusively where we are. At the moment though I think it looks very positive that the link between cases->admissions->deaths has been substantially reduced. Cases in my view is no longer the key metric.
Should we stop reporting cases? If we just showed the number of hospitalisations and deaths each day then I think people would be much more relaxed. However, it is still very useful data and I support open access to this sort of data.
For @noneoftheabove re ages at which children should get a say in whether they have the vaccine or not.
Here is a basic guide to Gillick Competence, which has been established in law since the 80's.
https://www.themedicportal.com/blog/gillick-competence-and-fraser-guidelines/
There really is no hard and fast threshold. But a professional would need to evidence that they have asked suitable questions and evaluated the responses carefully and critically.
Cases, on the other hand, at 26K today are growing with an R of 1.7 i.e. doubling every 9 days.
There seems to be a complete disconnect between cases and admissions to hospital.
I reckon that this disease is now going to rip through the population causing relatively few hospitalisations and deaths and burn itself out in short order. Over by September.
Since June 27th the figures reported are 20,479 and 26,068 so numbers are still rising quickly. For reference last Wednesday the figure was 14,065.
So I can see why some people may want the figures to no longer be so regularly published as the trend for cases really doesn't look good at the moment.
Thankfully hospital and death figures look a lot healthy....
These seem direct links to the full paper:
https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/35/3/556/735661
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyl020
I got on at 4/15 (boosted). I expect to win my £100 bet. Hat tip to NP.
Will rip through unvaccinated countries. It is ripping through here, too.
Those case rights are astonishing given our level of vaccine protection.
DecrepiterJohnL said:
» show previous quotes
Now there's a case that would have @DavidL off his death bed and back into court. Your Honour, the prosecution contends it is an official secret that Boris is "unfit" to be Prime Minister and that Matt Hancock is "fucking hopeless".
I said:
Unfortunately I have not been offered the gig. It does seem to me that Cummings has taken pictures of lots of things that should at least be confidential and quite possibly a good deal more secret than that. It really is inconceivable that someone in such a position will not have a confidential information provision in his contract. This really shouldn't be that difficult in law. The court of public opinion is, of course, another matter.
https://twitter.com/Direthoughts/status/1410193385747619849?s=20
It’s not about badges, but delivering for the NHS.
https://twitter.com/sajidjavid/status/1410261046309359621?s=20
But officials are worried about a backlash:
"We could bring the force of the state down to bear on him, but where could that lead? There is a strong body of thought that he would like to be in court and could reveal a load more damaging stuff under oath"
https://www.ft.com/content/cbf42278-1a75-4acf-b5a7-788511754428
Not a terrible thing to tbh - every case in the young is another that will have some immunity going forward.
Los Angeles County in California has just asked people to resume wearing masks indoors, vaccinated or not, but for now, it more or less feels over in places like NYS where we have a very high vaccination percentage.
The dots are not easily joined, except as a sequence of Labour excuses, which is not the traditional prelude to general election triumph. MPs and activists report deep malaise. The party brand is broken, they say. Voters are either unable to say what Labour stands for or are persuaded it stands for people not like them. [...] Starmer is not the cause of those problems, but there is a vagueness about him that doesn’t help. The dominance of pandemic news explains why the opposition leader has not been heard, but not why he has so little to say. There have been speeches that no one hears, but those of us who do seek them out for clues about Labour’s direction are not better informed.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/29/labour-keir-starmer-party-unity
I do not stir.
The frost makes a flower,
The dew makes a star,
The dead bell,
The dead bell.
Somebody's done for.
The vaccines have broken the link between infection and hospitalisations & death.
In short if you don't accept a vaccine when you're offered one then you're an idiot and can't complain about lockdowns or death.
A million cases per day just doesn't seem mathematically possible given the level of existing vaccine coverage, the ever increasing immunity levels from 1st and 2nd vaccinations 2 or 3 weeks ago, and the known efficacy of those vaccines. Quite simply the current epidemic has to slow down or go into reverse soon or otherwise what we thought we knew about vaccine-induced immunity is wrong.
I think there is much more social mixing now than a month ago. Anecdotally I think most of us have a sensed a shift as most people feel safer and more confident having been double-jabbed themselves. Social distancing is breaking down terminally and there is a football championship on. I do wonder quite how much more opening up there is to do on the 19th July. It's basically clubs and weddings. So a small increment in super-spreading events but probably among those who are already partying and catching the thing.
The supply from Pfizer and Moderna is now the main limiting factor in the coronavirus vaccine programme, analysts say, preventing a reduction in the eight-week interval between doses as the race against the Delta variant continues.
The government was advised last month under-40s should be offered an alternative to the Oxford-AstraZeneca jab because of a small risk of blood clots, given the low prevalence of the virus and the availability of other shots.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/not-enough-pfizer-and-moderna-doses-to-vaccinate-against-covid-faster-rp8jpf0fs
OK, next few weeks forecasts on COVID:
Current weekly rough figures 22/6:
Cases, 70k +35%
Hospitals: 1.5k +35%
Death: 100 +45%
Factors next week:
- Base week will have been slightly cooler
- Increasing rates are widespread throughout much of non-peninsular England and the central belt, suggesting close to the inflection point (i.e. areas near and beyond peak balancing new areas starting their Delta wave)
- Acceleration of localised university outbreaks, pushing some cities higher
By 29/6:
Cases: +40%, 110k per week
Hospitals +20% 1.8k
Deaths, +20%, 120
HOW I DID:
Low on cases, but slightly over on Hospitalisations and deaths. Scotland is a major part of the difference.
CHANGE TO PREDICTION:
Factors in early July:
- Beyond the inflection in England and Scotland, cases slowing and a lot of localities topping out at 100-150 cases per 100k, plus more places dropping
- Some football driven outbreaks (* football travel is a bigger factor than I allowed)
- University at inflection and terms just starting to come to an end
- Base week (now) cooler
By 6/7
Cases +20%, 130k (NOW +30%, 170k)
Hospitals, +20%, 2.2k (OK, I'LL STICK WITH THE REST - predict slightly higher increases from lower current base)
Deaths. +5%, 125
Factors in mid July:
- Over the community and university peaks
- Some football outbreaks (NOT GOING TO ADJUST YET)
- Base week OK weather wise
By 13/7:
Cases: level or slightly down 125k (160k)
Hospitals, level or slightly up, 2.2k (STICK)
Deaths, +10%, 140
https://www.evertonfc.com/news/2181395/benitez-appointed-everton-manager
Well, cases there just doubled in ten days. Another couple of weeks of the same, and they’ll be up to the same rate as the UK.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/news/covid-vaccine-passport-nhs-app-eu-travel-rome-italy/
Because what else was going to happen,when you put all the unvaccinated youth of the whole of Europe, on a few small islands with 10,000 capacity nightclubs?
And I will say my sound bight again while we are at it, we should fully open up. and now not wait till the 19th July
As you know I have taken a cautious tone on COVID on here but I think - unless hospitalisations and deaths go up significantly - that Boris will go ahead with 19 July 'Terminus Day'.
The emphasis will be more on taking personal responsibility taking into account one's risk and vaccination status.
A close friend of mine (cancer survivor, l;ate 50s) lives in Mousehole. Cornwall
She reports a huge spike in cases in Cornish hotspots - post G7 - up to 900 per 100,000
She also reports two double jabbed villagers are really ill with Delta, and half the pubs and restaurants are shut again, because so many staff are ill/isolating. Not good
"Delta can transmit in 5-10 seconds"
Ditto any completely irresponsible European states that have done the same thing.
Either that, or someone is going to have some explaining to do.
Talking of broken links, America has broken the one between freedom and being a pin cushion.
Time will tell if they were right, or you were.
Including 2 La Ligas, 2 UEFA Cup/Europa League, 1 FA Cup, and of course the trophy with the big ears.
At the danger of helping Labour in to power, I think a Blairite, competent Moderate, which is how I perceive Cooper, if she could become leader of Labour would be a real threat to the conservatives.
I remember when you were saying we'd never open up.
I write this from the bar of the Malmaison hotel in Manchester.
Avoid damaging leaks and revelations from Dominic Cummings about your government's culture and practices by simply not appointing a total git to the most senior position in the first place.
Especially in their big, crowded cities! must be armageddon.
But, I think the assertion 'Delta is more contagious than other variants' is being made because in places that have both and are doing sequencing, as time goes on they are finding more delta and less of the others.
She's the sort that does tons of reading. I'm minded to believe that she has, at least, read that somewhere reputable; doesn't make it true, of course
But we can all see how frigging infectious Delta can be. It's almost as if it this virus was engineered to have maximum virulence, in a lab
For example, every year (or few months) you'll hear talk about the fact there is a particularly nasty cold going round, or there will be talk of everyone coming down with the winter vomiting virus. We never test extensively for these, and half the time they don't even make it to the doctor's, particularly colds. What would the infection curves look like if PHE were issuing daily updates and dozens of twitter statisticians were doing charts of them. Do we, for example, have times of the year where something like flu is growing at 20k+ cases per day? Perhaps we do, and the death numbers in some winters coupled with the known CFR of flu suggest maybe the rates massively outstrip this, but I've no idea.
We've got a top manager. Spurs haven't.
Record yourself with the six hotties and that's porn, and legal under Covid-19 regulations.
Or was it Covid Boris?
Colin Angus
@VictimOfMaths
Recent analysis from AP found that 99.2% of COVID deaths in the US in May were in those not fully vaccinated.
But, especially outdoors, most scientists have said a fleeting pass it is very difficult to inhale enough of the virus. R0 although significantly higher than original or kent variant, it is still nowhere near the sort of levels of something like Measles or Chickenpox.
If it really was expose for 5-10s, all those footballers who teammates got it, Spain, Scotland, Croatia, etc, the whole squad will have got it, as they definitely spend more than 10s with each other.
Or did the original version and Delta both come from the lab? That really would be careless (lose a virus once, shame on... shame on you, lose a virus... - you can't lose a virus again!)
Rafa’s a great manager, with a pile of winners’ medals in his collection. The Toffeemen could have done an awful lot worse.
It's a drip drip drip tactic that Cummings knows will work.
Mind you taking a minor slight and using it for decades is a common Liverpudlian flaw.
But I also have a place in Manchester just for me.
Serious question. I am not a virologist, is this even possible?
Incidentally, I defy anyone to watch this and come out thinking Fauci is this saintly figure with no questions to answer. He is deep in the dirt
https://twitter.com/MarkMeadows/status/1409991235163545600?s=20
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html
rising in 15 states flat in one and fulling in the others.
Its rising in some heavily vaccinated states like, California and Connecticut and fulling fast in some Low vaccinated states, like north Dakota, and west Virginia. but generally the more vaccinated the more likely you are to be rising less. would be interesting to see on a scatergraph.
I suspect its a complex formula, incoding how vaccinated the state is, how urban/rural, how bad its been hit in the past, and Luck, as in when did Delta arrive in the state.
Over time the Luck element may decrees in relevance as all state get at least a few Delta visitors.
Vaccines are working!
The yearly flu jab is piss poor in comparison at stopping you becoming seriously ill.
The Case Against the Covid-19 Lab Leak Theory
https://newrepublic.com/article/162689/bats-covid-19-lab-leak-theory
How ill is "seriously ill"?
My friend in Cornwall says her double jabbed Deltoid pals were in bed for ten days, but not bad enough for hospital. Then the risk of Long Covid.
Moyes. Leading WHU into Europe.
Martinez. Leading Belgium to the Euro QF.
Koeman. FC Barcelona.
Allardyce. Dole.
Silva. Dole.
Ancelloti. Real Madrid.
None of these has had any consistent success or got us to CL.
I fear our problems aren't lack of a decent manager or two.
+7% incres WoW in the USA according to wouldmeater:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table