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Trump at a 25% chance looks value for the WH2024 GOP nomination – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,582

    Just a random one apropos of nothing - took a train trip to the Ayrshire coast today. Bearing in mind my home station is a small one but a relative handful of stops from Glasgow Central and therefore a big commuter line, ticket office guy was very downbeat in telling me that last year takings were 10% of pre-pandemic levels and still at the moment only running at about 20-30% of pre-pandemic levels.

    In a way absolutely not surprising, but it was a stark reminder that the railways continue to be as stuffed as a lot of the other industries in this post-lockdown-but-pre-freedom limbo we are in at the moment.

    If WFH is really the future, then the railways are going to take a massive hit.

    In the age of the electric car, mostly empty trains are not necessarily better.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736

    Letter fired off to my MP.

    I am f*cking furious. :rage::rage:

    What about? Not Hancock, surely?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,160
    The below isn't the words of a critical columnist or a Labour attack quote - it's an email from the Prime Minister last April.

    Extraordinary stuff (from @Dominic2306 Substack):
    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1408433819091341318/photo/1
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,160
    @marinahyde's shard-sharp on Matt Hancock today.

    Every single sentence (bar few pars at the end) dripping with comedy gold.

    To be read in conjunction with Hancock's "it's a matter for police" clip...

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/25/matt-hancock-sex-cop-busted-clinch-health-secretary-hookups
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    edited June 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    The far left are all to eager to do anything to bring down Starmer, and labour themselves are too weak to stand up to homophobes and extremists as they are desperate for any votes they can get.

    Very very nasty stuff especially in a seat which has the history it has with her sister.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,333

    kinabalu said:

    The deputy political editor of the Sun, Kate Ferguson, has just accused No. 10 of 'massive contempt' for the public. This is not going away. Not by a long chalk.

    By Tuesday people will be singing Three Lions and cheering on England Vs Germany.

    The proportion of people who care about politics in this country like we do is miniscule.

    What non-political people don't like is politicians taking the piss. That's the issue here for Hancock - and for Johnson now he has backed Hancock.
    In which case how do we explain the appeal of Boris Johnson, for whom 'taking the piss' is life's very purpose?
    A lot of people don't realise they are the target of his piss-taking, yet.
    Yes that's it. They think he's laughing with them.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,385
    Snap poll in:


    Politics For All
    @PoliticsForAlI
    · 15m
    🚨🚨 | BREAKING: Should Hancock resign?

    Resign: 49%
    Not resign: 25%

    DK/Neither: 26%

    Via @YouGov 25 June
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001

    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    The far left are all to eager to do anything to bring down Starmer, and labour themselves are too weak to stand up to homophobes and extremists as they are desperate for any votes they can get.

    Very very nasty stuff especially in a seat which has the history it has with her sister.
    Makes it very easy for the Tories to simply run a positive campaign whilsat Galloway and Labour are knocking seven bells out of each other as well.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,880
    edited June 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    The below isn't the words of a critical columnist or a Labour attack quote - it's an email from the Prime Minister last April.

    Extraordinary stuff (from @Dominic2306 Substack):
    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/1408433819091341318/photo/1

    The Hancock news is crowding this out, which is a shame.

    Boris admitting back in May 2020 that track and trace, and the app, are complete flops and that the government has no idea how to manage down pandemic numbers.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,385
    Can someone get Prof Ferguson to a microphone please and ask how it feels to be told to resign by the man who was doing the same bloody thing?
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, the value is surely DeSantis here: successful Governor in swing state, who navigated Covid well, and who is both Trumpy, but isn't actual Trump.

    The interesting question here is what happens if Trump decides to run. If he does, one can assume that those who would seek his blessing in the future (Hayley, DeSantis for example) will not wish to stand against him.

    Maybe, he certainly has positives, (I was less than impressed with his insistence that cruse ships that come in to Florida, cant demand vaccination.) but genarly good.

    Generally Florida has had a 'good' pandemic, compared to the rest of the US, and below average deaths and almost no state wide lockdown, and low unemployment. many Americans wish they had had Florida's pandemic.

    However Florida has a slightly below average level of Vaccination, (44% to 46%) not at the bottom, and cases are have stopped dropping, so presumably will start to rise, that will not look good.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,160
    A reminder from @MrSteerpike: when two women were accused of breaking the law for going on a walk (socially distanced) with takeaway coffees, Matt Hancock backed the police. 'Every time you try to flex the rules,' he said, 'that could be fatal' https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/nine-times-matt-hancock-told-us-to-obey-the-rules
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,333
    Stocky said:

    Where the heck is @BluestBlue ?

    He'll be back next Friday when the Cons have won Batters and Spenners. Giving it some.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,385
    The Spectator
    @spectator
    ·
    4h
    ‘Cabinet ministers cannot hide behind the “personal life” defence when they actually criminalised any number of aspects of other people’s personal lives. People were banned from kissing under laws that Hancock came up with’

    ✍️ Melanie McDonagh
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,511
    maaarsh said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    I'm assuming it's from voters Labour would consider 'theirs' and fits in to the pattern of ignoring homophobia or anti-semitism if its electorally damaging to challenge it that they've gone for.
    Labour really are completely fucked. Either they try and keep the conservative Muslim vote on board (but how? How do they square this with Wokeness??) or they abandon them and lose several million voters in one go
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    edited June 2021
    Globally counted cases are starting to rise again ; ; looks like 359k/day will be the minimum as it was for the previous low.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,385
    I suppose stepping back Hancock may have done this country a favour.

    It will be a very long time before such draconian shutdown measures will be obeyed again I suspect.

    And July 19th is on. In fact, Johnson may go for 5th now to try and divert the press.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736

    The Spectator
    @spectator
    ·
    4h
    ‘Cabinet ministers cannot hide behind the “personal life” defence when they actually criminalised any number of aspects of other people’s personal lives. People were banned from kissing under laws that Hancock came up with’

    ✍️ Melanie McDonagh

    When you are banned from dancing at your child's wedding I guess knobbing your co-worker in an alley smacks of double-standards?
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,880
    If Boris had have fired Hancock today we could have enjoyed the headline “Cock gets Sack” tomorrow.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,385
    Kate Ferguson
    @kateferguson4
    ·
    2h
    Just sat through the most ridiculous lobby. The PM's spokesman refuses to engage in any questions despite the massive public interest questions facing Matt Hancock. Utter contempt for the public.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,385
    Is it about now that the Editor of the Sun phones Johnson to say he has a bucket of shit on his desk and it is about to be poured all over his administration?
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,505

    Just a random one apropos of nothing - took a train trip to the Ayrshire coast today. Bearing in mind my home station is a small one but a relative handful of stops from Glasgow Central and therefore a big commuter line, ticket office guy was very downbeat in telling me that last year takings were 10% of pre-pandemic levels and still at the moment only running at about 20-30% of pre-pandemic levels.

    In a way absolutely not surprising, but it was a stark reminder that the railways continue to be as stuffed as a lot of the other industries in this post-lockdown-but-pre-freedom limbo we are in at the moment.

    If WFH is really the future, then the railways are going to take a massive hit.

    In the age of the electric car, mostly empty trains are not necessarily better.
    The selling point of trains over cars is not environmental but the ability to move large volumes of people, reliably. (You may scoff at the latter but in reality this is commuter rail's USP over the car.)
    If we are still expecting large volumes of people to move in and out of specific locations like city centres, rail will still be needed.
    Personally my view is that increase in jobs in second and third tier cities will easily outweigh reduction in trips per job. Less confident about London's future, but it's survived for 1000 years - it'll probably manage.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Stocky said:

    The Spectator
    @spectator
    ·
    4h
    ‘Cabinet ministers cannot hide behind the “personal life” defence when they actually criminalised any number of aspects of other people’s personal lives. People were banned from kissing under laws that Hancock came up with’

    ✍️ Melanie McDonagh

    When you are banned from dancing at your child's wedding I guess knobbing your co-worker in an alley smacks of double-standards?
    I thought I was the dog with the bone
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    Just 17 out of nearly 60,000 people caught Covid at non-socially distanced mass events pilots in England, Government data shows.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9725755/Mass-gatherings-safe-Just-17-Brits-58-000-Brits-test-positive-Government-pilot.html
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,318
    .
    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    Galloway saw the Batley Grammar School cartoon issue, which appeared to be slowly calming down, fanned the flames and stood back in anticipation of the fireworks. A truly vile animal.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    The far left are all to eager to do anything to bring down Starmer, and labour themselves are too weak to stand up to homophobes and extremists as they are desperate for any votes they can get.

    Very very nasty stuff especially in a seat which has the history it has with her sister.
    Makes it very easy for the Tories to simply run a positive campaign whilsat Galloway and Labour are knocking seven bells out of each other as well.
    Identity politics and wokeness always ends up like this.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,333

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Just went to get my second vaccine dose and the first thing the nurse raised in small talk was Hancock’s alleged affair violating Covid rules. Given this story seems to have the same cut through as Dominic Cummings’ trip to Barnard Castle it’ll be a tall order for him to survive.
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1408411191765053444

    I think most people are just astonished that Hancock is getting so much sex.

    He looks like a clapped out, pipsqueak circus pony.

    So, it just takes a while to adjust mentally to the idea of Hancock, the Mighty Stallion.
    Serious point - the photo shows a kiss only. Plenty of 'frisson' relationships don't go beyond that.
    Nah mate its just that you have trouble getting past first base.....
    But that's the 'frisson' - first base.. Or as Goldfinger put it - it is better to travel hopefully than to arrive.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,385
    Scott_xP said:

    A reminder from @MrSteerpike: when two women were accused of breaking the law for going on a walk (socially distanced) with takeaway coffees, Matt Hancock backed the police. 'Every time you try to flex the rules,' he said, 'that could be fatal' https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/nine-times-matt-hancock-told-us-to-obey-the-rules

    There must be 100s of examples. The slimy scumbag has never been off the TV for over a year railing at us to obey his rules.

  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,511
    Cookie said:

    Just a random one apropos of nothing - took a train trip to the Ayrshire coast today. Bearing in mind my home station is a small one but a relative handful of stops from Glasgow Central and therefore a big commuter line, ticket office guy was very downbeat in telling me that last year takings were 10% of pre-pandemic levels and still at the moment only running at about 20-30% of pre-pandemic levels.

    In a way absolutely not surprising, but it was a stark reminder that the railways continue to be as stuffed as a lot of the other industries in this post-lockdown-but-pre-freedom limbo we are in at the moment.

    If WFH is really the future, then the railways are going to take a massive hit.

    In the age of the electric car, mostly empty trains are not necessarily better.
    The selling point of trains over cars is not environmental but the ability to move large volumes of people, reliably. (You may scoff at the latter but in reality this is commuter rail's USP over the car.)
    If we are still expecting large volumes of people to move in and out of specific locations like city centres, rail will still be needed.
    Personally my view is that increase in jobs in second and third tier cities will easily outweigh reduction in trips per job. Less confident about London's future, but it's survived for 1000 years - it'll probably manage.
    2000 years!

    Another advantage of rail is that you can get blind drunk and still travel. Not to be minimised, as an attraction

    Tho when we have self driving e-cars that advantage will disappear
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,018

    Kate Ferguson
    @kateferguson4
    ·
    2h
    Just sat through the most ridiculous lobby. The PM's spokesman refuses to engage in any questions despite the massive public interest questions facing Matt Hancock. Utter contempt for the public.

    I do agree it's ridiculous, and the media can rightly be furious, but I do find the general tendency to equate treatment of media to being the same as to the public a tad overwrought or grandiose on occasion.

    Yes, media are the way for public to get info and the gov is stonewalling here, but sometimes they can get a bit over the top.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,899

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    Galloway saw the Batley Grammar School cartoon issue, which appeared to be slowly calming down, fanned the flames and stood back in anticipation of the fireworks. A truly vile animal.
    I wonder if the Hancock story could see Labour sqweak home?

    Under any other leader yes under SKS who knows?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,385
    Stocky said:

    Letter fired off to my MP.

    I am f*cking furious. :rage::rage:

    What about? Not Hancock, surely?
    Yes.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,385

    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1
    ·
    1h
    Is this a holding position, as it were, before Boris gets the results of today's presumably extensive focus groups and private polling?
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,368

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    Galloway saw the Batley Grammar School cartoon issue, which appeared to be slowly calming down, fanned the flames and stood back in anticipation of the fireworks. A truly vile animal.
    Why anyone listens to that man is beyond me.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,205

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    Galloway saw the Batley Grammar School cartoon issue, which appeared to be slowly calming down, fanned the flames and stood back in anticipation of the fireworks. A truly vile animal.
    I wonder if the Hancock story could see Labour sqweak home?

    Under any other leader yes under SKS who knows?
    I hope you're not cheering Galloway on.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    I'm assuming it's from voters Labour would consider 'theirs' and fits in to the pattern of ignoring homophobia or anti-semitism if its electorally damaging to challenge it that they've gone for.
    Labour really are completely fucked. Either they try and keep the conservative Muslim vote on board (but how? How do they square this with Wokeness??) or they abandon them and lose several million voters in one go
    When the woke types feel comfortable calling out Islamic misogyny and homophobia, we might be approaching assimilation. Letting them off because of their religion, or that they’re their enemies enemy proves multiculturalism isn’t working.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,018

    Scott_xP said:

    A reminder from @MrSteerpike: when two women were accused of breaking the law for going on a walk (socially distanced) with takeaway coffees, Matt Hancock backed the police. 'Every time you try to flex the rules,' he said, 'that could be fatal' https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/nine-times-matt-hancock-told-us-to-obey-the-rules

    There must be 100s of examples. The slimy scumbag has never been off the TV for over a year railing at us to obey his rules.

    No ones perfect, but it's right to expect higher standards of those in authority over us. More self discipline.

    What on earth possessed him?
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,368

    Is it about now that the Editor of the Sun phones Johnson to say he has a bucket of shit on his desk and it is about to be poured all over his administration?

    No
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,385

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    Galloway saw the Batley Grammar School cartoon issue, which appeared to be slowly calming down, fanned the flames and stood back in anticipation of the fireworks. A truly vile animal.
    I wonder if the Hancock story could see Labour sqweak home?

    Under any other leader yes under SKS who knows?
    Might cause a few Tory voters to sit this one out in silent protest at being told not to see their loved ones for months by Hancock.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited June 2021
    If Labour can't win the byelection now is there any hope for them? They have just been handed a huge open goal and with enough time to generate some traction.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Just went to get my second vaccine dose and the first thing the nurse raised in small talk was Hancock’s alleged affair violating Covid rules. Given this story seems to have the same cut through as Dominic Cummings’ trip to Barnard Castle it’ll be a tall order for him to survive.
    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1408411191765053444

    I think most people are just astonished that Hancock is getting so much sex.

    He looks like a clapped out, pipsqueak circus pony.

    So, it just takes a while to adjust mentally to the idea of Hancock, the Mighty Stallion.
    Serious point - the photo shows a kiss only. Plenty of 'frisson' relationships don't go beyond that.
    Nah mate its just that you have trouble getting past first base.....
    But that's the 'frisson' - first base.. Or as Goldfinger put it - it is better to travel hopefully than to arrive.
    Actually, I kind of agree with that...
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    Thanks for the link, I don't condone the haranguers as you say 'vile stuff', but, her pointing jabbing finger, is not the way to calm the situation down. I cant see her wining back much of the 'Muslim' community in the next week.

    this was from last night hustings


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XePHj5MZaSI&t=250s

    Its hard to simultaneously be pro, trans-rights, and a Pro 'Muslim concerns' and her passion seems to be on the former.
  • Options
    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    Galloway saw the Batley Grammar School cartoon issue, which appeared to be slowly calming down, fanned the flames and stood back in anticipation of the fireworks. A truly vile animal.
    I wonder if the Hancock story could see Labour sqweak home?

    Under any other leader yes under SKS who knows?
    Might cause a few Tory voters to sit this one out in silent protest at being told not to see their loved ones for months by Hancock.
    If anything, the Hancock row makes me tempted to put a few quid on Galloway.

  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,853
    Hancock's sermon:

    In my office in the Commons I have a “board of love”
    (OK, so, it's just thank yous for solving constituency issues, but cringily pur)

    Public service is mostly a team activity – another reason it’s so rewarding
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,018
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Just a random one apropos of nothing - took a train trip to the Ayrshire coast today. Bearing in mind my home station is a small one but a relative handful of stops from Glasgow Central and therefore a big commuter line, ticket office guy was very downbeat in telling me that last year takings were 10% of pre-pandemic levels and still at the moment only running at about 20-30% of pre-pandemic levels.

    In a way absolutely not surprising, but it was a stark reminder that the railways continue to be as stuffed as a lot of the other industries in this post-lockdown-but-pre-freedom limbo we are in at the moment.

    If WFH is really the future, then the railways are going to take a massive hit.

    In the age of the electric car, mostly empty trains are not necessarily better.
    The selling point of trains over cars is not environmental but the ability to move large volumes of people, reliably. (You may scoff at the latter but in reality this is commuter rail's USP over the car.)
    If we are still expecting large volumes of people to move in and out of specific locations like city centres, rail will still be needed.
    Personally my view is that increase in jobs in second and third tier cities will easily outweigh reduction in trips per job. Less confident about London's future, but it's survived for 1000 years - it'll probably manage.
    2000 years!

    Another advantage of rail is that you can get blind drunk and still travel. Not to be minimised, as an attraction

    Less so when it's a packed train after the cricket and a drunk Indian fan spills his open pint all over you.

    To pick an example at random.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,582
    edited June 2021
    If the comments of PB Tories, PB Tory sympathisers and ex-Tories, and PB centrists are anything to go by, it looks to me like Hancock will struggle to stay in post, despite the PM attempting to shrug it off.

    Although we're a weird lot, I don't think PBers are so out of tune that we don't reflect the mood of the public (or Tory MPs) on occasions like this.

    For once, the handful of us on the left are quite enjoying this. Such pleasure has been very rare recently.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,988
    edited June 2021
    Gnud said:

    FPT

    Foxy said:

    Frost is even thicker than I thought:

    “I don’t think those who campaigned five years ago for Brexit drove the analysis, drove the politics of it. I think they are surprised, quite often, to find relations are in the state they’re in,” said Frost.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/24/brexit-campaigners-surprised-by-sour-relations-with-eu-says-lord-frost?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other&__twitter_impression=true

    It's almost as if they expected us to keep our word...

    Frost is the perfect embodiment of the incurious mediocrity of the British managerial class that has done so much to make us so uncompetitive as a country.

    When trying to explain the success of the Nordic countries to disbelieving American, Australian and English visitors (“how come you’re so rich when you pay such high taxes?”), I usually start with explaining the difference in productivity. And to do that I explain how Nordic managers are generally competent, curious, pleasant, cooperative and… most importantly… display every sign of actually liking their fellow human beings.

    The contrast with English managerial culture could not be starker, where it seems to be obligatory to shut down curious emploees; and a criterion for getting the job is that you are a greedy bastard who despises human beings lower down the hierarchy than yourself.
    This is so true. And it applies to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland just as much as to England.

    And it's not only expressed within the organisation that's being managed, but also in any kind of relation with "members of the public". If in Sweden, say, someone who is not in the social elite has to see someone at the local authority about something, or at a bank branch, or at a police station, the experience will be how you describe it: you will see someone who is pleasant to you, could easily imagine themselves in your position, smiles in a genuine way, has no problem leaving you in their office while they go out to check something - and if they are a woman the office is likely to be very "homely" and as often as not it will have some teddy bears for some reason. In Britain the attitude will be one of passive aggression, as if you are trying to get one over on them, and you will be unlikely ever to get a genuine smile with the eyes as well as the mouth, or any feeling that you are talking to another human being who respects you as being in the same species and could easily imagine your positions being reversed. It's like a cultural neocolonialism.

    It is a commonplace observation but nonetheless true that an organisation wherein every manager sh*ts on those of lower rank than his own is likely to have junior public-facing staff who for obvious psychological reasons tend to treat "the public" in the same way.
    Interesting post. I've encountered people like this sometimes.
  • Options
    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    Galloway saw the Batley Grammar School cartoon issue, which appeared to be slowly calming down, fanned the flames and stood back in anticipation of the fireworks. A truly vile animal.
    Why anyone listens to that man is beyond me.
    That video is not about Batley as such - there is a clear reference to the whole LGBTQ issue put in there as well. I have had direct experience dealing with this (I can’t say under what context) and the LGBTQ teaching in schools, particularly Primary ones, is a major issue for a lot of people in the Muslim community.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,318

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    Galloway saw the Batley Grammar School cartoon issue, which appeared to be slowly calming down, fanned the flames and stood back in anticipation of the fireworks. A truly vile animal.
    I wonder if the Hancock story could see Labour sqweak home?

    Under any other leader yes under SKS who knows?
    Well, to the extent that Gorgeous George wouldn't be standing against a Corbynista leader, but would he stand against Blairite/Brownite LOTO Burnham? Yes he probably would, and Burnham would find himself in the same boat as Starmer, explaining away another loss to the Conservatives.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,385
    MrEd said:

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    Galloway saw the Batley Grammar School cartoon issue, which appeared to be slowly calming down, fanned the flames and stood back in anticipation of the fireworks. A truly vile animal.
    I wonder if the Hancock story could see Labour sqweak home?

    Under any other leader yes under SKS who knows?
    Might cause a few Tory voters to sit this one out in silent protest at being told not to see their loved ones for months by Hancock.
    If anything, the Hancock row makes me tempted to put a few quid on Galloway.

    Plague on all your houses could come through the middle on this one.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,018

    If the comments of PB Tories, PB Tory sympathisers and ex-Tories, and PB centrists are anything to go by, it looks to me like Hancock will struggle to stay in post, despite the PM attempting to shrug it off.

    Although we're a weird lot, I don't think PBers are so out of tune that we don't reflect the mood of the public (or Tory MPs) on occasions like this.

    For once, the handful of us on the left are quite enjoying this. Such pleasure has been very rare recently.

    I am fascinated at the delineation between ex Tories, Tories and Tory sympathisers, whilst retaining centrists.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,318
    edited June 2021

    If Labour can't win the byelection now is there any hope for them? They have just been handed a huge open goal and with enough time to generate some traction.

    George Galloway splitting the Labour vote- keep up!
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,424

    Is it about now that the Editor of the Sun phones Johnson to say he has a bucket of shit on his desk and it is about to be poured all over his administration?

    The clear implication in the article was that they could have months worth of these CCTV photos. What if they publish some more tomorrow? And the next day?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,160
    Among the many Hancock questions : Did the job at Dept of Health lead to the relationship or did the relationship lead to the job? Would Coladangelo have got the job if a relationship had been declared? Will she now resign? Did they break the law?
    https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1408439139771596801
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,018

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    Galloway saw the Batley Grammar School cartoon issue, which appeared to be slowly calming down, fanned the flames and stood back in anticipation of the fireworks. A truly vile animal.
    I wonder if the Hancock story could see Labour sqweak home?

    Under any other leader yes under SKS who knows?
    Might cause a few Tory voters to sit this one out in silent protest at being told not to see their loved ones for months by Hancock.
    My starting assumption would be it wont cost them much, but if the story can be dragged out a few more days - simple enough - and the PMs response is to ignore then it could infuriate and have at least some impact.
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    If Labour can't win the byelection now is there any hope for them? They have just been handed a huge open goal and with enough time to generate some traction.

    Its not so much needing to 'win' as to 'hold',

    I think they need a leader with some leadership skills, and while that would not solve everything, this government will probably keep making mistakes.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    edited June 2021
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    I'm assuming it's from voters Labour would consider 'theirs' and fits in to the pattern of ignoring homophobia or anti-semitism if its electorally damaging to challenge it that they've gone for.
    Labour really are completely fucked. Either they try and keep the conservative Muslim vote on board (but how? How do they square this with Wokeness??) or they abandon them and lose several million voters in one go
    When the woke types feel comfortable calling out Islamic misogyny and homophobia, we might be approaching assimilation. Letting them off because of their religion, or that they’re their enemies enemy proves multiculturalism isn’t working.
    Conservative Islam is backward and reprehensible in its attitude to women and homosexuality.

    That was easy, wasn't it.
    I dont know, it was you who did it

    The fact you had to add ‘Conservative’ makes me feel like it wouldn’t be easy to say it without caveats
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,713
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scotland is actually over it's winter peak for known cases now.

    "Soaring" over the peak.
    What do you think has caused the Edinburgh spike ?
    Dundee based lawyers visiting the city?
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,582
    edited June 2021
    kle4 said:

    If the comments of PB Tories, PB Tory sympathisers and ex-Tories, and PB centrists are anything to go by, it looks to me like Hancock will struggle to stay in post, despite the PM attempting to shrug it off.

    Although we're a weird lot, I don't think PBers are so out of tune that we don't reflect the mood of the public (or Tory MPs) on occasions like this.

    For once, the handful of us on the left are quite enjoying this. Such pleasure has been very rare recently.

    I am fascinated at the delineation between ex Tories, Tories and Tory sympathisers, whilst retaining centrists.
    It's a finely honed categorisation that I've reached since I started posting here over a year ago. Centrists include the Lib Dem types. I can give you lists of who's in which category if you wish.....
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,899

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    Galloway saw the Batley Grammar School cartoon issue, which appeared to be slowly calming down, fanned the flames and stood back in anticipation of the fireworks. A truly vile animal.
    I wonder if the Hancock story could see Labour sqweak home?

    Under any other leader yes under SKS who knows?
    Might cause a few Tory voters to sit this one out in silent protest at being told not to see their loved ones for months by Hancock.
    You would think so but Johnsons Government seems pretty bullet proof.

    I reckon if pictures emerged of Johnson drowning puppies you would get a majority of PB Tories defending it.

    "We have got too many dogs its the only sensible thing to do" Meanwhile SKS is the puppy drowning lite alternative!!
  • Options
    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    Galloway saw the Batley Grammar School cartoon issue, which appeared to be slowly calming down, fanned the flames and stood back in anticipation of the fireworks. A truly vile animal.
    I wonder if the Hancock story could see Labour sqweak home?

    Under any other leader yes under SKS who knows?
    Might cause a few Tory voters to sit this one out in silent protest at being told not to see their loved ones for months by Hancock.
    If anything, the Hancock row makes me tempted to put a few quid on Galloway.

    Plague on all your houses could come through the middle on this one.
    Plus also differentiated turnout. This feels to me like a low turnout by election - I don’t get the impression the Tories have sizzled either. If Galloway does whip up enthusiasm in the Muslim community and gets their votes (plus a few WWC), he is in. See Peterborough 2019 by-election.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited June 2021

    kle4 said:

    If the comments of PB Tories, PB Tory sympathisers and ex-Tories, and PB centrists are anything to go by, it looks to me like Hancock will struggle to stay in post, despite the PM attempting to shrug it off.

    Although we're a weird lot, I don't think PBers are so out of tune that we don't reflect the mood of the public (or Tory MPs) on occasions like this.

    For once, the handful of us on the left are quite enjoying this. Such pleasure has been very rare recently.

    I am fascinated at the delineation between ex Tories, Tories and Tory sympathisers, whilst retaining centrists.
    It's a finely honed categorisation that I've reached since I started posting here over a year ago. I can give you lists of who's in which category if you wish.....
    Bit worrying hearing about people making lists of names....
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,385

    Nigel Farage
    @Nigel_Farage
    ·
    6h
    I had wanted to go to my daughter's school prize-giving next week but can only do so online.

    Yet thousands of Football Officials can come to the UK without quarantine and Matt Hancock can completely ignore social distancing rules.

    I am sick of this.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Meanwhile, yet more encouraging news about the Plague, this time from the latest ONS survey update. Cases are now back where they were in early April; however...

    The biggest increase in positive tests was found in older teenagers and younger adults - those aged 17-24. This group is among the most likely to mix with lots of other people, while being the least likely to be vaccinated.

    People aged 25-34 had been on a similar upward trend but this appears to have been curtailed by the introduction of vaccines, and cases in this age group are falling again.

    This comes as Public Health England figures - also published on Friday - show a 42% increase in the number of Delta variant Covid cases in the last week, with most cases being in the under-50s.

    The 80,000 (or 90% of) Delta cases found in under-50s have led to eight deaths - none of these had been double-vaccinated.


    So, 90% of all Delta cases were identified in the under 50s, resulting in a fatality rate amongst that population of 0.01%. And, whilst the total number of cases is still rising, the vaccines are now working their way so far down the age scale, and proving so effective, that rates are dropping even in the 25-34 age group. Instead, they're becoming increasingly concentrated amongst the under 25s - who are at the lowest risk of ending up in hospital, and at almost no risk at all of death.

    Remember all this when there are more breathless headlines, as there will be, about spiralling case rates, and take heart. The vaccines are beating the crap out of this virus, and it's getting increasingly wobbly on its legs.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,318

    If the comments of PB Tories, PB Tory sympathisers and ex-Tories, and PB centrists are anything to go by, it looks to me like Hancock will struggle to stay in post, despite the PM attempting to shrug it off.

    Although we're a weird lot, I don't think PBers are so out of tune that we don't reflect the mood of the public (or Tory MPs) on occasions like this.

    For once, the handful of us on the left are quite enjoying this. Such pleasure has been very rare recently.

    I think they can blag it out between them.

    In some ways a potential infidelity by someone in government other than Johnson gives Johnson some cover. As for the breaching of social distancing rules, she was in his bubble...
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,020


    Nigel Farage
    @Nigel_Farage
    ·
    6h
    I had wanted to go to my daughter's school prize-giving next week but can only do so online.

    Yet thousands of Football Officials can come to the UK without quarantine and Matt Hancock can completely ignore social distancing rules.

    I am sick of this.

    The prize giving at my daughter's former school has been cancelled for a second year.

    They hope to do something when everyone picks up their A level results but I suspect some children won't be in the appropriate mood.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,160
    Cookie said:

    Just a random one apropos of nothing - took a train trip to the Ayrshire coast today. Bearing in mind my home station is a small one but a relative handful of stops from Glasgow Central and therefore a big commuter line, ticket office guy was very downbeat in telling me that last year takings were 10% of pre-pandemic levels and still at the moment only running at about 20-30% of pre-pandemic levels.

    In a way absolutely not surprising, but it was a stark reminder that the railways continue to be as stuffed as a lot of the other industries in this post-lockdown-but-pre-freedom limbo we are in at the moment.

    If WFH is really the future, then the railways are going to take a massive hit.

    In the age of the electric car, mostly empty trains are not necessarily better.
    The selling point of trains over cars is not environmental but the ability to move large volumes of people, reliably. (You may scoff at the latter but in reality this is commuter rail's USP over the car.)
    If we are still expecting large volumes of people to move in and out of specific locations like city centres, rail will still be needed.
    Personally my view is that increase in jobs in second and third tier cities will easily outweigh reduction in trips per job. Less confident about London's future, but it's survived for 1000 years - it'll probably manage.
    2000 years, surely? I think the Romans had something to do with it.
  • Options
    GnudGnud Posts: 298
    Dominic Cummings is letting rip again, aiming fire at (guess who) Matt Hancock.

    Two interesting bits:

    this:

    "Do we enforce electronic wristbands connected to phones on quarantined people as per HK?" ;

    and the way he talks to Boris Johnson as if he were some kind of human puppy:

    "FYI -- if you skim through this you will have good idea re some of the problems/complexities... As usual, my team of irregulars is having to do this cos the centre cannot do it."
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,333
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    Galloway saw the Batley Grammar School cartoon issue, which appeared to be slowly calming down, fanned the flames and stood back in anticipation of the fireworks. A truly vile animal.
    I wonder if the Hancock story could see Labour sqweak home?

    Under any other leader yes under SKS who knows?
    Might cause a few Tory voters to sit this one out in silent protest at being told not to see their loved ones for months by Hancock.
    If anything, the Hancock row makes me tempted to put a few quid on Galloway.

    Plague on all your houses could come through the middle on this one.
    Plus also differentiated turnout. This feels to me like a low turnout by election - I don’t get the impression the Tories have sizzled either. If Galloway does whip up enthusiasm in the Muslim community and gets their votes (plus a few WWC), he is in. See Peterborough 2019 by-election.
    He's about the same price the LDs were at one point for Amersham. Personally I'd rather the Cons took it than that.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,018

    kle4 said:

    If the comments of PB Tories, PB Tory sympathisers and ex-Tories, and PB centrists are anything to go by, it looks to me like Hancock will struggle to stay in post, despite the PM attempting to shrug it off.

    Although we're a weird lot, I don't think PBers are so out of tune that we don't reflect the mood of the public (or Tory MPs) on occasions like this.

    For once, the handful of us on the left are quite enjoying this. Such pleasure has been very rare recently.

    I am fascinated at the delineation between ex Tories, Tories and Tory sympathisers, whilst retaining centrists.
    It's a finely honed categorisation that I've reached since I started posting here over a year ago. Centrists include the Lib Dem types. I can give you lists of who's in which category if you wish.....
    I prefer the mystery.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,002
    The Hancock story should hurt the Tories in B&S. I just backed Labour at 5.2 and 5.1 on Betfair.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,333
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    I'm assuming it's from voters Labour would consider 'theirs' and fits in to the pattern of ignoring homophobia or anti-semitism if its electorally damaging to challenge it that they've gone for.
    Labour really are completely fucked. Either they try and keep the conservative Muslim vote on board (but how? How do they square this with Wokeness??) or they abandon them and lose several million voters in one go
    When the woke types feel comfortable calling out Islamic misogyny and homophobia, we might be approaching assimilation. Letting them off because of their religion, or that they’re their enemies enemy proves multiculturalism isn’t working.
    Conservative Islam is backward and reprehensible in its attitude to women and homosexuality.

    That was easy, wasn't it.
    I dont know, it was you who did it

    The fact you had to add ‘Conservative’ makes me feel like it wouldn’t be easy to say it without caveats
    Ah ok. So yes it was easy. I vouch that it was. My fingers couldn't hit the keys fast enough.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,871

    If the comments of PB Tories, PB Tory sympathisers and ex-Tories, and PB centrists are anything to go by, it looks to me like Hancock will struggle to stay in post, despite the PM attempting to shrug it off.

    Although we're a weird lot, I don't think PBers are so out of tune that we don't reflect the mood of the public (or Tory MPs) on occasions like this.

    For once, the handful of us on the left are quite enjoying this. Such pleasure has been very rare recently.

    Imo, the PM is not attempting to shrug it off, but leaking story by story to get Hancock to resign, so he does not need to sack him.
  • Options
    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,582

    kle4 said:

    If the comments of PB Tories, PB Tory sympathisers and ex-Tories, and PB centrists are anything to go by, it looks to me like Hancock will struggle to stay in post, despite the PM attempting to shrug it off.

    Although we're a weird lot, I don't think PBers are so out of tune that we don't reflect the mood of the public (or Tory MPs) on occasions like this.

    For once, the handful of us on the left are quite enjoying this. Such pleasure has been very rare recently.

    I am fascinated at the delineation between ex Tories, Tories and Tory sympathisers, whilst retaining centrists.
    It's a finely honed categorisation that I've reached since I started posting here over a year ago. I can give you lists of who's in which category if you wish.....
    Bit worrying hearing about people making lists of names....
    Oh dear. I wasn't being serious.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,582
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Just a random one apropos of nothing - took a train trip to the Ayrshire coast today. Bearing in mind my home station is a small one but a relative handful of stops from Glasgow Central and therefore a big commuter line, ticket office guy was very downbeat in telling me that last year takings were 10% of pre-pandemic levels and still at the moment only running at about 20-30% of pre-pandemic levels.

    In a way absolutely not surprising, but it was a stark reminder that the railways continue to be as stuffed as a lot of the other industries in this post-lockdown-but-pre-freedom limbo we are in at the moment.

    If WFH is really the future, then the railways are going to take a massive hit.

    In the age of the electric car, mostly empty trains are not necessarily better.
    The selling point of trains over cars is not environmental but the ability to move large volumes of people, reliably. (You may scoff at the latter but in reality this is commuter rail's USP over the car.)
    If we are still expecting large volumes of people to move in and out of specific locations like city centres, rail will still be needed.
    Personally my view is that increase in jobs in second and third tier cities will easily outweigh reduction in trips per job. Less confident about London's future, but it's survived for 1000 years - it'll probably manage.
    2000 years!

    Another advantage of rail is that you can get blind drunk and still travel. Not to be minimised, as an attraction

    Tho when we have self driving e-cars that advantage will disappear
    If we don't have tons of commuters showing up for the 7:45, then the shape of the railway network will need to change.

    People forget that mass commuting is a relatively recent phenomenon.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,318
    edited June 2021

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    Galloway saw the Batley Grammar School cartoon issue, which appeared to be slowly calming down, fanned the flames and stood back in anticipation of the fireworks. A truly vile animal.
    I wonder if the Hancock story could see Labour sqweak home?

    Under any other leader yes under SKS who knows?
    Might cause a few Tory voters to sit this one out in silent protest at being told not to see their loved ones for months by Hancock.
    You would think so but Johnsons Government seems pretty bullet proof.

    I reckon if pictures emerged of Johnson drowning puppies you would get a majority of PB Tories defending it.

    "We have got too many dogs its the only sensible thing to do" Meanwhile SKS is the puppy drowning lite alternative!!
    Way, way, way off topic.

    No, Starmer gets the blame by the Momentum left for the puppies being drowned on his watch. Of course Jeremy would have saved them all!
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,821
    MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    Galloway saw the Batley Grammar School cartoon issue, which appeared to be slowly calming down, fanned the flames and stood back in anticipation of the fireworks. A truly vile animal.
    I wonder if the Hancock story could see Labour sqweak home?

    Under any other leader yes under SKS who knows?
    Might cause a few Tory voters to sit this one out in silent protest at being told not to see their loved ones for months by Hancock.
    If anything, the Hancock row makes me tempted to put a few quid on Galloway.

    Plague on all your houses could come through the middle on this one.
    Plus also differentiated turnout. This feels to me like a low turnout by election - I don’t get the impression the Tories have sizzled either. If Galloway does whip up enthusiasm in the Muslim community and gets their votes (plus a few WWC), he is in. See Peterborough 2019 by-election.
    I understand that even if GG were to sweep the "Muslim vote" then that is only 20%, albeit mostly from the Labour pool.

    He won't sweep up the vote, nor pick up significant numbers of white voters. There may be selective turnout, but I think the best he will do is to come second and third or lower more likely. I see it as Con gain by narrow majority, smaller than the GG vote.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    BigRich said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, the value is surely DeSantis here: successful Governor in swing state, who navigated Covid well, and who is both Trumpy, but isn't actual Trump.

    The interesting question here is what happens if Trump decides to run. If he does, one can assume that those who would seek his blessing in the future (Hayley, DeSantis for example) will not wish to stand against him.

    Maybe, he certainly has positives, (I was less than impressed with his insistence that cruse ships that come in to Florida, cant demand vaccination.) but genarly good.

    Generally Florida has had a 'good' pandemic, compared to the rest of the US, and below average deaths and almost no state wide lockdown, and low unemployment. many Americans wish they had had Florida's pandemic.

    However Florida has a slightly below average level of Vaccination, (44% to 46%) not at the bottom, and cases are have stopped dropping, so presumably will start to rise, that will not look good.
    The effect of Delta on the US will be interesting: vaccination rates have slowed to a crawl in some States, and the prevalence is rising. There could be a nasty wave in the South in the late summer when people return from holidays.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,020
    A complete offtopic anecdote but I will post here for reference

    The 2 child limit for Working Tax Credits came into being in April 2017. Checking 2 different schools it seems reception admissions for September 2021 are 15% lower than September 2020...
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,160
    Matt Hancock 'affair': Aide Gina Coladangelo's relative has top job at company with NHS contracts - Sky News https://apple.news/AjjsG2PjRRmmCQB3GCly0mQ
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    I'm assuming it's from voters Labour would consider 'theirs' and fits in to the pattern of ignoring homophobia or anti-semitism if its electorally damaging to challenge it that they've gone for.
    Labour really are completely fucked. Either they try and keep the conservative Muslim vote on board (but how? How do they square this with Wokeness??) or they abandon them and lose several million voters in one go
    Well yes: the problem with identity politics (as feminists and transrights activists are also demonstrating) is that the identities get ever smaller, and the tyranny of small differences takes over.

    It's why you shouldn't worry.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,160
    EXCLUSIVE: The brother of Gina Coladangelo, the Whitehall director whose alleged affair with health secretary Matt Hancock has prompted calls for him to quit, is a director of PHL Group, a private healthcare provider which has won several NHS contracts. https://news.sky.com/story/matt-hancock-affair-aide-gina-coladangelos-relative-has-top-job-at-company-with-nhs-contracts-12341789
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,511
    "BREAKING: in unclassified documents released to Congress today, by the DoD, Pentagon officials admit the UAP (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena) are not American technology, and show advanced characteristics indicating non-human origin"


    GET IN

    https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1406340307613016072?s=20
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,001
    Scott_xP said:

    Matt Hancock 'affair': Aide Gina Coladangelo's relative has top job at company with NHS contracts - Sky News https://apple.news/AjjsG2PjRRmmCQB3GCly0mQ

    Drip drip...
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,318
    isam said:

    The Hancock story should hurt the Tories in B&S. I just backed Labour at 5.2 and 5.1 on Betfair.

    Back Gorgeous George!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292

    kle4 said:

    If the comments of PB Tories, PB Tory sympathisers and ex-Tories, and PB centrists are anything to go by, it looks to me like Hancock will struggle to stay in post, despite the PM attempting to shrug it off.

    Although we're a weird lot, I don't think PBers are so out of tune that we don't reflect the mood of the public (or Tory MPs) on occasions like this.

    For once, the handful of us on the left are quite enjoying this. Such pleasure has been very rare recently.

    I am fascinated at the delineation between ex Tories, Tories and Tory sympathisers, whilst retaining centrists.
    It's a finely honed categorisation that I've reached since I started posting here over a year ago. I can give you lists of who's in which category if you wish.....
    Bit worrying hearing about people making lists of names....
    Oh dear. I wasn't being serious.
    Neither was I.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited June 2021
    Imagine if the media worked as hard educating themselves, doing research and thinking of probing questions around actual COVID as they do when there is a political scandal....
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,160
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    I'm assuming it's from voters Labour would consider 'theirs' and fits in to the pattern of ignoring homophobia or anti-semitism if its electorally damaging to challenge it that they've gone for.
    Labour really are completely fucked. Either they try and keep the conservative Muslim vote on board (but how? How do they square this with Wokeness??) or they abandon them and lose several million voters in one go
    When the woke types feel comfortable calling out Islamic misogyny and homophobia, we might be approaching assimilation. Letting them off because of their religion, or that they’re their enemies enemy proves multiculturalism isn’t working.
    Conservative Islam is backward and reprehensible in its attitude to women and homosexuality.

    That was easy, wasn't it.
    I dont know, it was you who did it

    The fact you had to add ‘Conservative’ makes me feel like it wouldn’t be easy to say it without caveats
    Isn't that because Islam comes in many flavours? I know plenty of Muslims who have totally progressive views on things like homosexuality and women's rights. Just like Christians, Jews, Hindus and Athiests also hold a range of views. Are the percentages of fundamentalists/moderates the same across all religious groups in the UK? Probably not. But criticising Islam as a whole isn't really helpful.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,871
    eek said:

    A complete offtopic anecdote but I will post here for reference

    The 2 child limit for Working Tax Credits came into being in April 2017. Checking 2 different schools it seems reception admissions for September 2021 are 15% lower than September 2020...

    And that is despite many of the cabinet personally going above and beyond a best endeavours basis.....
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Leon said:

    "BREAKING: in unclassified documents released to Congress today, by the DoD, Pentagon officials admit the UAP (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena) are not American technology, and show advanced characteristics indicating non-human origin"


    GET IN

    https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1406340307613016072?s=20

    Err what?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,821
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    I'm assuming it's from voters Labour would consider 'theirs' and fits in to the pattern of ignoring homophobia or anti-semitism if its electorally damaging to challenge it that they've gone for.
    Labour really are completely fucked. Either they try and keep the conservative Muslim vote on board (but how? How do they square this with Wokeness??) or they abandon them and lose several million voters in one go
    Well yes: the problem with identity politics (as feminists and transrights activists are also demonstrating) is that the identities get ever smaller, and the tyranny of small differences takes over.

    It's why you shouldn't worry.
    Certainly true with the Identity Politics of Brexit.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    MrEd said:

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1408431105485705217
    Galloway saw the Batley Grammar School cartoon issue, which appeared to be slowly calming down, fanned the flames and stood back in anticipation of the fireworks. A truly vile animal.
    I wonder if the Hancock story could see Labour sqweak home?

    Under any other leader yes under SKS who knows?
    Might cause a few Tory voters to sit this one out in silent protest at being told not to see their loved ones for months by Hancock.
    If anything, the Hancock row makes me tempted to put a few quid on Galloway.

    Conservatives staying at home?

    It's possible. But the polling evidence we've seen so far doesn't look great for Galloway, and only around 20% of the population of B&S in Muslim.

  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,511
    Floater said:

    Leon said:

    "BREAKING: in unclassified documents released to Congress today, by the DoD, Pentagon officials admit the UAP (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena) are not American technology, and show advanced characteristics indicating non-human origin"


    GET IN

    https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1406340307613016072?s=20

    Err what?
    OFFICIAL: IT'S ALIENS

    Fffffffffffuck
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,018
    Scott_xP said:

    Matt Hancock 'affair': Aide Gina Coladangelo's relative has top job at company with NHS contracts - Sky News https://apple.news/AjjsG2PjRRmmCQB3GCly0mQ

    He's toast. Doesn't matter if its above board, too many things don't look above board when seen through the context of him breaking rules to shag someone who also has connections elsewhere,
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,333

    kle4 said:

    If the comments of PB Tories, PB Tory sympathisers and ex-Tories, and PB centrists are anything to go by, it looks to me like Hancock will struggle to stay in post, despite the PM attempting to shrug it off.

    Although we're a weird lot, I don't think PBers are so out of tune that we don't reflect the mood of the public (or Tory MPs) on occasions like this.

    For once, the handful of us on the left are quite enjoying this. Such pleasure has been very rare recently.

    I am fascinated at the delineation between ex Tories, Tories and Tory sympathisers, whilst retaining centrists.
    It's a finely honed categorisation that I've reached since I started posting here over a year ago. I can give you lists of who's in which category if you wish.....
    Bit worrying hearing about people making lists of names....
    Oh dear. I wasn't being serious.
    I'm the one with the lists. All the names. All the foibles.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,505
    1. Back from a pleasant walk up Pendle Hill and lunch in the Freemasons Arms, Wiswell, and catching up on the news. Biggest news of the day and the one I was keenest yo hear is that DavidL is ok. Hooray!
    2. The village of Barley, Pendle, still has yellow notices as you enter the village asking you to park elsewhere to protect vulnerable from covid. They've been up for over a year.
    3. Matt Hancock is a twat. If even he's not obeying his Byzantine rules, it's time the rest of us can. We don't know what's going on in his personal life - but our own lives have been made considerably worse by the rules he himself is flouting. For spurious and purposeless reasons related to his rules, my oldest daughter is missing out on ten days of her life right now. So many small opportunities to live are being missed. So much childhood is being missed out on. We still can't even have proper children's birthday parties, for fuck's sake. But it's OK, Matt, I'm sure no-one will mind if you snog your aide in an alley.
    4. I'm slightly surprised Boris hasn't taken the opportunity to sack him. He clearly doesn't rate him. Hancock is an electoral liability. I can see why he didn't want to feel forced by Dom to sack him, but this is a golden opportunity. What on earth is he keeping him in place for?
    5. Also, while I'm not seeking to blame the woman, what on earth does the woman in question see in a haggard-looking middle aged national hate figure?
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    maaarsh said:

    BigRich said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just seen a clip of Ledbetter being harangued in Batley and Spen. Vile stuff

    Do you mind me asking, by whom, and for what?

    Was it activists form a different party?
    I'm assuming it's from voters Labour would consider 'theirs' and fits in to the pattern of ignoring homophobia or anti-semitism if its electorally damaging to challenge it that they've gone for.
    Labour really are completely fucked. Either they try and keep the conservative Muslim vote on board (but how? How do they square this with Wokeness??) or they abandon them and lose several million voters in one go
    When the woke types feel comfortable calling out Islamic misogyny and homophobia, we might be approaching assimilation. Letting them off because of their religion, or that they’re their enemies enemy proves multiculturalism isn’t working.
    Conservative Islam is backward and reprehensible in its attitude to women and homosexuality.

    That was easy, wasn't it.
    I dont know, it was you who did it

    The fact you had to add ‘Conservative’ makes me feel like it wouldn’t be easy to say it without caveats
    Isn't that because Islam comes in many flavours? I know plenty of Muslims who have totally progressive views on things like homosexuality and women's rights. Just like Christians, Jews, Hindus and Athiests also hold a range of views. Are the percentages of fundamentalists/moderates the same across all religious groups in the UK? Probably not. But criticising Islam as a whole isn't really helpful.
    Tell you what - go take a look at a few polls and see what they show you
This discussion has been closed.