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Trump at a 25% chance looks value for the WH2024 GOP nomination – politicalbetting.com
Trump at a 25% chance looks value for the WH2024 GOP nomination – politicalbetting.com
We’ve hardly referred to events in the US following the January 6th Insurrection and the inauguration of Joe Biden. From the perspective of this side of the pond things seem a lot more peaceful and without the regular stream of Tweets from the Oval Office life is getting back to some sort of normality.
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And Trump will win the 2024 Republican nomination if he stands for his supporters make up a significant percentage of current Republican membership - in the same way many sane former Tory Members left leaving mainly Boris supporters behind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZd8sDquNYw
Smarkets has some Biden exit markets with the caveat that Biden's death will void the markets; which makes backing him to stay on a real no brainer.
Wiki says he has 3 kids, I assume are school age. That’s gonna be nasty for them.
FFS where is that argument today?
And it's not only expressed within the organisation that's being managed, but also in any kind of relation with "members of the public". If in Sweden, say, someone who is not in the social elite has to see someone at the local authority about something, or at a bank branch, or at a police station, the experience will be how you describe it: you will see someone who is pleasant to you, could easily imagine themselves in your position, smiles in a genuine way, has no problem leaving you in their office while they go out to check something - and if they are a woman the office is likely to be very "homely" and as often as not it will have some teddy bears for some reason. In Britain the attitude will be one of passive aggression, as if you are trying to get one over on them, and you will be unlikely ever to get a genuine smile with the eyes as well as the mouth, or any feeling that you are talking to another human being who respects you as being in the same species and could easily imagine your positions being reversed. It's like a cultural neocolonialism.
It is a commonplace observation but nonetheless true that an organisation wherein every manager sh*ts on those of lower rank than his own is likely to have junior public-facing staff who for obvious psychological reasons tend to treat "the public" in the same way.
After Nov20 I initially thought laying trump would be a brain dead obvious move but the GOP have decided to go all in on the Big Lie and the Biden admin have signalled they are going to the whole "Not prosecuting obvious crimes of the previous administration" thing.
So suddenly Trump at 25% looks a bit tasty.
But it's a nightmare market with too many unknowns for me.
I feel sorry for the many many people who were not allowed to embrace their dying relatives under lockkdown. Matt Hancock was the architect of that system
It now turns out he completely flouted his own rules, and clearly got off on the power he was given.
What were his priorities then? What are they now?
Especially now that he's off Twitter, running for and winning the nomination will be the one way that he can have the constant attention his narcissistic ego demands. Why would he not want that?
The scenarios in which he does not run for the nomination are:
1. Incapacity due to ill health.
2. Ineligibility due to incarceration following criminal conviction.
3. Someone close to him (Melania? Ivanka? Junior?), and trusted by him, argues him round to the view that he's achieved all he set out to achieve, has nothing to prove, and it's for the next generation to fight to preserve his legacy.
My feeling is that (3) would be pretty hard to pull off, because it would run contrary to his sense of self. If attempted, and failed, it's the sort of thing that might lead to that person being banished from the inner circle.
We also have to consider that running for election again would probably be seen as a good way to avoid jail time.
I'm frequently wrong, and it's a long time until the nomination, but that looks like he should be the odds-on favourite.
Also if the GOP controls the House after the midterms ... Biden does hold the hot-seat though so there is that to consider.
Whatever you think of the election result, that Maricopa audit is not being held to endorse it. Many other legislatures were at the audit, going to school on the Arizona model.
Trump is going to hold a series of huge rallies later in the year when he will use the audit's results to try to take Biden's legitimacy away.
If you are happy with that, fine. Anything the powerful ever do will be OK by you.
I fear many of the people we elect are, sadly. That is why they cannot be given too much power.
Hancock having sex doesn't change anything about vaccines saving lives.
After all that is the entire point of the Apprenticeship Levy, here is money that you should be using to upskill your staff.
Far too much is being read into 'educated people don't vote Tory'. The ABCDE split just shows that the Tories have a solid spectrum of support across the social split. The Remain vote is split 4 or five ways (Tories second favourite among them!), while the Leave vote isn't.
Interesting times.
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/zhh0oqc2h2/TheTimes_VI_Track_210624_W_BPC.pdf
Simply put, even in New York State, how do you get 12 jurors without one of them being MAGA?
Interesting - I can only see the 2 cannon. Unless you mean those red patches on the leading edges, which look more like the yellow you see on the outer wings in some painting schemes. But with the colour wrong.
God I love this site.
Yep, two cannon, one per wing.
The machine gun ports were covered in red canvas patches to stop crap getting down the barrels, which were punctured when the guns were fired (on cannon they used condoms I think). The width of those red patches in the illustration looks more like a Hurricane pattern, where there were four guns right next to one another in the centre of the wing, with a wide red canvas patch covering all four barrels.
On Spits with 8 Brownings the guns were spread out along the wing, one nearest the fuselage, two together in the middle of the wing one out towards the tip, giving three, narrower, red patches. Cannon armed Spits also had two machine guns per wing, giving two small red patches.
Or something like that. There's loads of marks and probably loads more variation. No doubt someone will know better than me!
Mind you, I'm going off the most obvious alternative - DeSantis - too after hearing him speak following this building collapse in Miami. What an irritating voice.
God I love this site.
Yep, two cannon, one per wing.
The machine gun ports were covered in red canvas patches to stop crap getting down the barrels, which were punctured when the guns were fired (on cannon they used condoms I think). The width of those red patches in the illustration looks more like a Hurricane pattern, where there were four guns right next to one another in the centre of the wing, with a wide red canvas patch covering all four barrels.
On Spits with 8 Brownings the guns were spread out along the wing, one nearest the fuselage, two together in the middle of the wing one out towards the tip, giving three, narrower, red patches. Cannon armed Spits also had two machine guns per wing, giving two small red patches.
Or something like that. There's loads of marks and probably loads more variation. No doubt someone will know better than me!
I think we are in agreement. I don't think those red patches are supposed to be gun covers - which were round. Incidentally, I thought that covers were also to help with preventing the guns cold soaking at altitude?
The red patches in the image look more like someone mixed up the cannon cover colour with the yellow outer leading edge used in some colour schemes.
I was of the opinion Trump wouldn't run in 2024 but I'm far less certain of that now. The increasing view that CV came from a lab will encourage Trump to say "I told you so" (even if it isn't proved) and, for the GOP and possibly some independents, then gets them to question other things dismissed as conspiracy theories such as whether the election was stolen. He therefore probably fancies his chances, especially given the dismal performance of Harris so far and the likelihood, with the recent shift by Democrats to be more pro-law and order, Democrat infighting starts off again. Add in that the other main GOP candidates are young enough to wait until 2028 but know being chosen as the VP pick strengthens their chances hugely and it is very much for Trump to say one way or the other.
He would very much agree that, very often, the employer ends up pushing training on the workforce. This is one of those things that university graduates find to be outside their experience - the workers are often a bit resistant to going on courses etc. Even if paid for completely by the company.....
He was merely comforting her for the bad news she had received, about her holiday in Portugal. The best way to comfort pushy lobbiest types is put your tongue down their throat and grab a chunk of their firm buttocks. Rather like testing my eye sight with a drive, I do it all the time myself.
Now I don't know how you fix the issue unless you created something like evening classes but the Government has spent 30+ years destroying them.
Employers could train unskilled workers and then employ them directly but that is not quite the same thing.
The campaign and election are going to be an absolute shit show at the fuck factory. It's going to be brilliant.
It’s been common practice at airlines for decades, when a training course for a pilot on a new type of plane costs £25,000, they’re expected to either stay with the company for two years, or pay back a proportion of the cost of the training.
Yep, two cannon, one per wing.
The machine gun ports were covered in red canvas patches to stop crap getting down the barrels, which were punctured when the guns were fired (on cannon they used condoms I think). The width of those red patches in the illustration looks more like a Hurricane pattern, where there were four guns right next to one another in the centre of the wing, with a wide red canvas patch covering all four barrels.
On Spits with 8 Brownings the guns were spread out along the wing, one nearest the fuselage, two together in the middle of the wing one out towards the tip, giving three, narrower, red patches. Cannon armed Spits also had two machine guns per wing, giving two small red patches.
Or something like that. There's loads of marks and probably loads more variation. No doubt someone will know better than me!
I think we are in agreement. I don't think those red patches are supposed to be gun covers - which were round. Incidentally, I thought that covers were also to help with preventing the guns cold soaking at altitude?
The red patches in the image look more like someone mixed up the cannon cover colour with the yellow outer leading edge used in some colour schemes.
Yeah it might have been the altitude thing as well - whatever, the patches were there to protect the guns.
But I do disagree about their shape, they were definitely square. I wonder if it came on a big roll and they'd just slice off a few inches per gun port.
Yep some marks had a yellow leading edge (though not Battle of Britain-vintage ones, the yellow came later).
Anneliese Dodds, Labour Party Chair, says his position is 'hopelessly untenable' and says 'Boris Johnson should sack him'
The Lib Dems' appeal in this area is to a particular set of seats that have higher numbers of graduates and professionals with strong links to London. Southend, Slough and Swindon are not going LD any time soon. Much of the south-west is not returning to the LDs, either, though I think they still have a chance in a couple of places like St Ives.
Labour is harder to assess because... well, what actually is Labour these days?
I'd love to know how that got released. Would tell us so much about the power plays within the government.....
The red patches in the image look more like someone mixed up the cannon cover colour with the yellow outer leading edge used in some colour schemes.
Yeah it might have been the altitude thing as well - whatever, the patches were there to protect the guns.
But I do disagree about their shape, they were definitely square. I wonder if it came on a big roll and they'd just slice off a few inches per gun port.
Yep some marks had a yellow leading edge (though not Battle of Britain-vintage ones, the yellow came later).
I'm pretty sure I've seen pictures of round patches.....
https://www.politics.co.uk/week-in-review/2021/06/25/week-in-review-hancocks-half-hour/
Covers hypocrisy, timing, cronyism and focus both previously and especially going forward now he has personal problems to fix...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9724613/Couple-forced-eat-cold-wet-difficult-digest-food-stuck-stuffy-room.html
The bigger charge is that Hancock broke the law he introduced. That makes it more complicated if the action was illegal.
This is one of those times when it's probably not worth it, Hancock must be distracted by what is going on.
Boris's problem is who can he replace him with...
I think it is more who is shagging around with in office hours (in the office) in the middle of a pandemic.
Could sack him for Covid rules, but Cummings...
Could sack him for ministerial code, but Priti...
Could sack him for being totally fucking useless maybe...
The lines of text are "saving lives" for the less flattering pic
For the pic with a big smile on his face - "shagging wives"
The more infectious Delta coronavirus variant will become dominant in Germany over the summer, health minister Jens Spahn said this morning.
“The Delta variant will have the upper hand over the summer, it’s more a matter of weeks than months,” Spahn told a news conference, adding the variant currently makes up more than 15% of coronavirus cases reported in Germany.
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But its ok, everybody to the beaches and nightclubs of Southern Europe to intermingle.....
Feel bad for her tbh
“We are seeing a doubling every few days,” Ash said on Friday. “Another thing that’s worrying is the infections are spreading. If we had two cities where most of the infections were, we have more cities where the numbers are rising and communities where the cases are going up.”
Ash said the rise in cases was likely due to the highly contagious Delta variant.
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They have lost their vaccine advantage when they hit the ceiling due to refuseniks.
There's no excuse for not being able to run the places properly, but some mate of the government has the contract and their determined to wring as much money from it as possible.
But I do disagree about their shape, they were definitely square. I wonder if it came on a big roll and they'd just slice off a few inches per gun port.
Yep some marks had a yellow leading edge (though not Battle of Britain-vintage ones, the yellow came later).
I'm pretty sure I've seen pictures of round patches.....
To protect guns from dirt and moisture (which tended to freeze), definitely.
The erks just cut off a strip and stuck it down with red oxide dope, the same stuff as they used to prime linen fabric on flying surfaces (much of the Hurricane, and the control surfaces even on the Spit, earlier marks thereof). Easier and quicker to stick (sorry) with rectangles - cutting a circle means the linen starts fraying much more quickly, too.
I assume that's a nonsense.
That labour party?
I personally have done 16/8 for 5+ years now, never felt better.
“I accept that I breached the social distancing guidance in these circumstances. I have let people down and am very sorry. I remain focused on working to get the country out of this pandemic, and would be grateful for privacy for my family on this personal matter.”
The guidance in place since March 2020 had ordered people to stay two metres apart from anyone outside their household or bubble. The rules were only relaxed on May 17."
Telegraph.
Sack him. Today.
How can he possibly be sent out to tell people to continue with restrictions or take on new ones now?
It makes no sense to have rules about travel to various EU destinations which seem to be largely based on case numbers when we are increasingly trying to move away from case numbers as the key measure for easing restrictions in the U.K.
Bluestblue doesn't seem to be around today, but BB's thesis- damn the press, ignore the scandals, getting rid of people because of headlines is weakness, it's all yesterday's chip paper- has a logic to it.
It's not one I share, because I think in physics terms. Making things that dent is a good thing, because the alternative is sudden, catastrophic breaking. You roll with the little punches to prevent the knockout blow.
But Boris has made his bed here. He's kept on too many tawdry, compromised ministers to start doing the right thing now. And once he's forced to sack one minister, another bit of his charisma- sticking by his team, ignoring the press- goes.
And a little bit more of his scalp is exposed.