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Latest voting intention polling following last week’s by-election – politicalbetting.com
Latest voting intention polling following last week’s by-election – politicalbetting.com
It was inevitable given how little attention they were getting before their shock victory by some margin in C&A that the LDs were going to see something of a recovery and that is what has happened. But overall the polls are showing very different pictures of the where the Tories stand in relation to LAB.
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Hard to see the Tories losing.
I console myself by the thought that the long sweep of history remains with the Left.
Covid: Ivermectin to be studied as possible treatment in UK
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57570377
The Lib Dems have been flatlining at around 8% for almost the whole of the last decade (Jo Swinson managed to earn them about an extra 3pts at the 2019 GE with the hardline Remain message, for all the good that it did her; that extra support quickly fell off again.) Some kind of revival might be on the cards in the wake of the by-election win; you can make arguments either way, but it's too early to tell.
> John Bercow will not be nominated for a peerage by Sir Keir Starmer despite his defection to the Labour Party.
Sources close to Starmer said that the former Speaker of the House of Commons, the first in two centuries not to be given a seat in the Lords upon retirement, would not be made a peer by the present Labour leadership.
The opposition’s snub to Bercow, 58, effectively destroys any chance he once had of fulfilling his well-publicised ambition of joining other past Speakers in the upper chamber.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/caa20c90-d38a-11eb-bd02-4c692e62e3fd?shareToken=17a6930ac80496aa423712b038c2575d
It would be an enormous relief if this happened, but these stories could just be kite-flying and one wouldn't believe a word of it regardless, unless or until it actually comes to pass. The pro-lockdown faction will fight this hard, and will be searching the data with a fine toothed comb over the next few weeks for more excuses to stall.
She wants us to stop being irrationally scared of the virus, and welcomes reports of the possible binning of restrictions on July 19th: high time we got our lives back to normal were the words used. Amen to that.
North Korea is now a bit of a role model apparently.
We need to be careful about the gulf between what the government are writing in the guidance and what they’re ordering schools to do in the real world.
In the real world, schools that actually do send whole classes/year groups home get nasty phone calls from the DfE which include legal threats.
Edit - that being said, she is right that we need to lift isolation rules anyway if we want to be back to normal in September. And since with very rare exceptions the at risk population will either have been vaccinated, or have refused a vaccine, there isn’t really a reason to keep it going.
https://twitter.com/business/status/1407570885574336519?s=20
https://gulfnews.com/uae/abu-dhabi-begins-offering-free-covid-19-vaccines-to-visitors-1.80117661
One way of attracting people, to visit somewhere not particularly famous for summer tourism!
One of the slightly amusing things about the LDs is how uncorrelated their seats are with their vote share. So, in 1997, they saw the lowest "third party" share since 1979 (and a lot less than 1974 for example), and yet they more than doubled their seats.
In 2019, they increased their vote total by 50% and saw a reduction in seats. In 2017, by contrast, they lost more than one in ten of their votes, yet increased their seats 50%. Etc.
Such a shame that SKS didn't agree.
I’ll get my coat.
Have a good morning!
We might as well push the natural SEIR curve (Whatever it is) whether it peaks at 70, 100k known infections a day during the summer at that point.
Speakers pop up in the other place and intone their experience of parliament and due democratic process. That Bercow is not going to be able to do so demonstrates shame on Johnson's government which literally nobody cares about.
So of course serkeir isn't nominating him. It's not for him to do so. Perhaps PM Sunak will do so as part of his efforts to rehabilitate the Conservative Party.
The difference between 1983 and 1992 wasn't really in the Conservative vote share, but how efficiently the anti-Conservative vote was distributed across seats. In 1983, Labour and the Alliance were fighting each other, by 1992 their interests were much better aligned. Something similar happened in reverse between 2017 and 2019.
But an efficient anti-Conservative vote swap will probably put more votes in the red column, because historically they have had more seats where they are in contention.
So the chain goes more determination to kick the Tories - more vote swapping - fewer Lib Dem votes but better focused.
C+A showed one example of 2019 thinking being reversed, B+S may show the other, albeit swamped by BXP and Woolies going blue.
The prioritisation of the most vulnerable first was certainly correct, and we're reaping the benefit in the lower death and hospitalisation rates. But I wonder if, when Groups 1-9 were one-jabbed, it might have been a better route to then invert Phase 2.
That is: while second-jabbing Groups 1-9, start first-jabbing the rest from Age 18-21 up, rather than down towards Age 18-21.
After all, arguably the more social interactions happen with younger adults.
It would have meant my age group came last, which would have been annoying personally, but it might have been the more optimal balance between "reducing deaths" (start with the old and more vulnerable) and "reducing spread" (start with the young and more sociable).
Still, it certainly did a bloody good job of reducing the overall death toll and hospitalisation rate, so I'm probably just being picky about looking at the "good" and wondering about a "best"
And I really don't think they were jokes..
On former posters, whatever happened to HurstLama?
On Covid (etc) went yesterday to a pub I hadn't been to for a while, met several old acquaintances, which was good. However, there were discussions of lockdown, and general opinion was
a) No-one believed that just isolating Billy Gilmour (?sp) was adequate, in terms of preventing the spread of Covid, unless everyone else in the dressing room had been vaccinated.
and
b) The admission of 2.500 UEFA officials made a mockery of travel regulations.
And this was in a pub where one didn't have to sign in in any way, although all of us knew each other.
Smaller EU member states were impressed by how the EU has stood behind Ireland in the disputes with the UK over the Irish border, which had raised concern about the peace process, he said. “Small member states told us what is happening in Ireland shows us that when one country has an existential issue that that is an existential issue for all.”
Given the British role as leader of the EU’s awkward squad, obtaining opt-outs and raising red flags, some things are easier without the UK. “There are different states of sorrow,” said Riekeles. “We miss the British, but probably less than we thought.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/23/moving-on-why-the-eu-is-not-missing-britain-that-much
That was when I knew we had won.
There is nothing admirable about Bercow.
But the Speaker of the House should not be pirouetting to ensure approval of the Government of the day to secure a peerage. A tradition, once broken, is hard to reinvent. From now on, the danger is that this is another power grabbed by the Executive, and the role of Speaker ends up politicised.
Whether that was carelessness linked to hubris or misunderstanding the problem, I don't know.
How will that minimum corporate tax squabble end I wonder
Irony of ironies.
Burcow may be first in line for a Peerage on Richard Burgon's list.
Twee conventions are there to protect everyone. One of the most foolish thing about the Johnson-Cummings "conventions are for conventional people and conventional people are losers" approach to life is that, at some point in the future, the Conservatives will be in opposition again. They're not going to enjoy being treated the way they are treating others right now.
Buried them under a hard border.
Which they "accidentally" built....
Does Bercow deserve a peerage?
No.
Should the Executive have greater control over the Speaker?
Probably also no.
But we seem to have ended up with both.
Strong Britain, Great Nation...
The last 4 speakers (since Wetherill? I was just a kid!) have been members of the Labour Party.
The last 4 speakers (since Wetherill? I was just a kid!) have been members of the Labour Party.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-caught-in-a-squeeze-on-corporation-tax-reform-1.4589605
one has to be communautaire
I expected more disruption than we've seen.
I’m a remainer but it is better than I hoped.
Its by no means the most petty self-serving act of wanton destruction they have done, but its on the list. Their utter contempt for Parliament is a sight to behold, and so-called democrats seem to support it because its their side doing it. Unless they can offer the same for a Labour Leader of the House acting in the way that Rees-Mogg does then they are hypocrites.
Boothroyd - '92-'00 - Lab
Martin - '00-'09 - Lab
Bercow - '09-'19 - Con (ish)
Hoyle - '19- - Lab
The Speakership election is written up by Wikipedia here, and while it is hardly an unimpeachable source, it doesn't mention whipping.
https://twitter.com/CountBinface/status/1407441521197080579
"Count Binface is urging children to sing Another Brick In The Wall Part 2 on June 25."
(a) normalisation of inventory levels caused by pre-Brexit stockpiling
(b) the end of Covid
Those two issues make it next to impossible to really work out the impact of Brexit.