Categories
Options
What were punters thinking when they bet on the Tories in Chesham at 1/20 – politicalbetting.com
What were punters thinking when they bet on the Tories in Chesham at 1/20 – politicalbetting.com
As PB regulars will know I spent the last five weeks here saying that the odds available on the LDs in the by-election offered great value for money. What I cannot work out was what those on the other side of the bets were thinking when they took the risk of effectively rating the Tory chances of victory as a 95% chance.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9702863/St-Pauls-Girls-School-no-longer-use-term-head-girl-binary-connotations.html
Or just sidestep that you thought the Tories would win and not mention it. *cough*
The International Rescue Committee reinforces “white supremacy culture”, staff have alleged, with the aid organization subsequently hiring a law firm to review its policies relating to discrimination, harassment and retaliation, the Guardian can reveal.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/jun/19/david-miliband-charity-international-rescue-committee-white-supremacy-allegations
"Reinforces" insert bad things..sounds a lot like "my truth" and "alt -right adjacent" smears.
And so they go by 'national trends' or 'headline numbers'.
Whereas the reality is that there can be great variation in political betting.
And the money is to be made when you can get odds against in a bet where local factors might be different to 'national trends'.
Now quite a few of the odds against bets I've had were losses but they've been more than made up for by the wins.
One of my son's favourite teachers explained to those going for Oxbridge that you are not standing for any of the senior prefect positions, you just don't have time. She was absolutely right. Lots of meetings trying to make sense of the latest nonsense from the Scottish government trying to convert that into a school that could actually operate was exactly what they didn't need.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/19/scare-tactics-owe-socialism-science/
The senior pupil was known as head of school for decades after St Paul's Girls was founded in 1904.
The school said their decision-making was a result of senior pupils considering themselves young women rather than 'girls' but acknowledged the 'binary connotations' were also a factor.
Herd mentality and groupthink seem to be getting worse.
More seriously there are plenty of very religious people in the "hard" sciences. That also requires a leap of faith
My own take and I'm not suggesting this was the only factor is that people are starting to understand the benefits of living in a marginal seat. They're tired of elections in their area being a foregone conclusion and the incentive if you live in a safe seat is to turn it into a marginal.
In Hartlepool - if we vote Tory they'll start listening to us. In Chesham - if we stop voting Tory they'll start listening to us. A very transactional or mercenary approach to politics but it seems to be where we are.
One is a precautionary principle. Vaccination has reduced my personal risk by at least 95% but I see no reason to put myself in what I see as a high-risk environment. Similarly, I live on a quiet cul-de-sac where the risk of getting run over is virtually nil, but I still look both ways before tossing the road.
There is also the risk of catching it and passing it on to others, even if you are not ill yourself, and having to self-isolate which, having got used to socialising again, I'd rather not do.
And I wouldn't want to support a business than is flouting the rules in what I regard as a risky way. I want the restrictions to be lifted on 19 July and feel we should all avoid things that could speed up the spread.
In the end it's an easy decision for me to make as I don't really enjoy crowds of noisy people.
But there have been very few in recent years where LDs have taken from the Tories. But right now seems just such a time in any southern seat where LDs came second.
If you haven't lived through lots of them, simply looking at the 2019 vote and adding in current polling - the LDs nowhere - you would understandably say the Tories were an absolute banker.
As to predicting the B&S - Tories by a short nose, but I wouldn't risk twopence on it at current odds.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uks-longest-known-covid-patient-was-begged-by-wife-not-to-end-treatment-before-he-died-12336139
Astute independent thinkers should be looking at alternatives, and I don’t mean Bitcoin.
I do wonder if one of the worst cases being a journalist married to a TV a presenter, has been a contributing factor to the high vaccination take up, when it’s regularly discussed just how bad Covid can be.
Barbarous relic.
They read the Spectator! Their typically well researched piece goes like this;
“Hopefully we can stop hearing any rubbish about how the Lib Dems are set to tear down the Conservatives’ ‘blue wall’ in the Home Counties.......As the campaign has demonstrated, the Lib Dems are miles away from being able to cause such an upset..... the Lib Dems will lose on Thursday, most likely fairly badly, and they will have no one to blame but themselves.”
First doses during w/e 17/06 1.879m
First doses during w/e 10/06 2.337m
First doses during w/e 03/06 2.437m
First doses during w/e 27/05 2.473m
https://covidtracker.fr/vaccintracker/
If that decline continues then first doses in France will be around ten million fewer than in the UK.
We could and should have been doing this a month ago....
It was the death of Hall – a young, fit, international footballer – from polio which helped to kick-start widespread public acceptance in Britain of the need for vaccination. Though the disease was generally feared and the Salk vaccine was available, takeup had been slow. In the weeks following Hall's death, and after his widow, Dawn, spoke on television about her loss, demand for immunisation rocketed. Emergency vaccination clinics had to be set up and supplies of the vaccine flown in from the United States to cope with demand.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Hall_(footballer)
I suspect vaccine take up is going to be low among the young unless forced to do so by employers.
The LibDems haven't been on the by-election form OGH mentions in the lead for nearly twenty years, and last won a landslide like C&A precisely twenty one years ago, in Romsey. Which in political terms was another era.
I thought the LibDems would pick up votes and come a decent second; and still suspect a late swing arising from some mix of an effective local LibDem campaign (especially exploiting May's comments on the planning reforms), the government wobbles around Cummings and the cancellation of freedom day, was wot won it for the LibDems.
I’m surprised that the Mail didn’t use Harriet Harman as their example alumnus
Changing the advice would likely have been far more trouble than it was worth.
The boys are led by the Captain of School (who is Head of College) and the Captain of the Oppidans (who is the Head of the Select) plus the Captain of Boats.
They select an individual, usually but not always the Captain of School, who represents the boys’ interests on the triumvirate comprising the Head Man, the Lower Master and the [Captain of School] that manages the school day to day
That triumvirate is overseen by a triumvirate comprising the Provost (who represents the Queen), the Conduct (representing the Bishop of Lincoln) and the Head Man (representing the boys and the beaks)
Now we have a new variant and had exponential growth in cases. Furthermore, JVCI caveated it saying as long as it didn't slow down the rollout, which is exactly what we have seen over the past two months.
We have been completely hamstrung of only been able to do 100-150k first does for a long time now.
It seems to have finished earlier as the take-up has reduced.
Now perhaps it could have been finished a week or two earlier but I'm not even sure that would have been a good thing - letting Delta seep through the country this summer has its advantages.
Hungary ahead.
This seems unnecessary to me …
… and it would have been nice if @NicolaSturgeon had contacted us beforehand to discuss it.
Maybe the Scottish Government should try living by the same standards it frequently accuses the UK Government of lacking?
#DoubleStandards
https://twitter.com/andyburnhamgm/status/1406193369391550466?s=21
17th release vs 10th June release.
Above 40 vaccinations are a trickle...
Age Group 10th 17th Change
Under 25 N/A 27.25% N/A
25-29 21.64% 35.07% 13.43%
30-34 47.06% 53.69% 6.63%
35-39 60.23% 62.98% 2.74%
40-44 71.50% 72.28% 0.78%
45-49 78.66% 79.15% 0.48%
50-54 84.73% 84.93% 0.21%
55-59 87.60% 87.76% 0.16%
60-64 89.80% 89.90% 0.10%
65-69 91.93% 92.00% 0.07%
70-74 94.25% 94.31% 0.06%
75-79 95.26% 95.34% 0.08%
80+ 95.00% 95.17% 0.18%
"Our polices include an ethical foreign policy {cough} {cough} {cough}"
Thinking about my relative who lives in a leafy suburb of an English town, just retired on a good final salary pension, member of the National Trust etc. As un-Woke as you can get but she absolutely despises wokery (the people calling it out) because she thinks it's mean and disrespectful.
Genuinely thinking of getting in Trump right now. The notion of free and fair elections is done in the South.
Presumably the Scottish government will be paying any costs incurred by their people as a result of the policy?
I think the 1/20 Tory bet is typical for so many political betting markets. Clearly, the major bookies don't have to worry much about political markets as these are just headline-makers for them. They are happy to offer 1.05 in these markets as they don't really have to attract new business. Why offer great prices when it just means unnecessary risk.
I believe the gamblers are either people who know a huge amount about politics and very little about gambling or people who know how to gamble but don't know much about politics.
Whenever I see your reminder that a tip is about the value, not the expected outcome, I always know that there is something worth looking at. The value in the political markets is the best you can find.
https://twitter.com/avidresearch/status/1405997938124406785
Bolsanaro bears a heavy responsibility.
Also you can't do the all my money is in gold thing in the internet, and sound sane. One or the other
France ought to be winning, and ought to win. But aren't.
Hungary continue to have little flashes on the break. Not completely sitting back.
Fewer 50s want to be vaccinated than the 60s.
Fewer 40s want to be vaccinated than the 50s.
Fewer 30s want to be vaccinated than the 40s.
Fewer 20s want to be vaccinated than the 30s.
It doesn't matter how much vaccine you have available if the constraint becomes demand instead of supply.
Mr. Urquhart, I'm always dubious of people who want to rewrite the English language. Seems like wrongthink to me.
Why play the nation's only truly world class player out of position?
Looking at the polling (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_New_York_City_mayoral_election#Opinion_polling) Adams is ahead by a bit but nothing that justifies the betting which is currently:
Adams 1.53 1.55
Garcia 5.4 5.7
Wiley 16.5 18
Yang 10 12.5
Not sure why Yang is third fav when he is clearly 4th in the polls. I am in this market following another PB tip to lay him at 1.4 as he was running high in the early polling due to name recognition so thanks for that one as well.
You have King Henry’s foundation (“Eton College”) with 70 boys.
And then you have the boys in the private houses in the town (“Oppidans”)
A lot of the structures are about coordinating between two different legal organisations, one of which is run according to a medieval Royal Charter.
While the UK remains ahead on fully vaccinated people in both absolute and relative terms, EU countries are catching up fast: Germany, which on Friday passed the milestone of having given a first shot to 50% of its entire population, is due to overtake the UK in the coming days in terms of the total number of people who have had at least one dose.