I was under the impression that there were quite a lot of people in B&S with links to the Indian sub continent. Perhaps this is a sign of Galloway-esque low cunning?
Not many with links to Palestine though.
So why is that viewed as more important than Kashmir ?
Still not sure what freedoms Freedom day offers beyond the ‘freedom’ to resume a long commute, to take off a mask I’m not remotely bothered about wearing or to be crammed closer to some dudes sweaty pits.
How about a simple example: Pubs.
The hospitality industry have had an absolutely rotten time for the past 18 months. Right now with the summer and the Euros should be one of the most profitable times of the year, which would help them recover. Instead its table service only.
If England make the Semi Finals or the Finals then it should be packed pubs with the staff serving as quickly as they can at the bar. Great atmosphere for the fans, great business for an industry that desperately, desperately needs the cash in the tills.
Instead its a case of lets postpone so that people who have refused the vaccine are less exposed - since almost all hospitalisations are coming from people who refused the vaccine. Pathetic.
Went to the pub on Saturday, it was lovely. Didn’t have to queue at a bar.
Yes, it is great. You also don’t have the dickhead inbred locals sitting at the bar leaving only a tiny space to place an order.
It isn’t sustainable though. Pubs cannot survive as it is.
And on topic I would say good header (it is of course) were it not for the fact that small children in Batley could have written the same, so obvious was it that there would be this delay.
We now wait to see how loud the murmurings about the forthcoming autumn/winter spike will be to see if the new date will be pushed back further.
A child in Batley could well have written this. I did because I am so fucking depressed and angry about the mess - not for me but for my children who have been - and are being - royally fucked over by this government: catching the disease because the government didn't get a grip last autumn, losing their jobs (ditto) and now losing their business. I'm well aware that others have suffered too - in multiple different ways: losing loved ones (we've had that too) so I'm not claiming anything special about my family. Just describing one human perspective to go with all the statistics.
Daughter has been working so hard. She increased turnover in her business by 63% in the first year. It was profitable and set fair to do even better. She has worked her socks off to keep it going since March 2020. This morning she was up at 7 to go and change some lines for some new beer ordered in. She now faces the prospect of losing two big bookings this next month and some more band bookings the following month. The support from the government is being cut off in 16 days time, despite still being forced to operate at less than 50% capacity. She (and I) have zero confidence that in 4 weeks time restrictions will be lifted. This limbo will just go on and on.
Her words to me as she left: "What is the point of carrying on?"
She is 26. Her chef is 30.
What the government is doing to the young (and not just them) is wicked.
I write on here out of frustration and fury because what I really want to do is beat the heads of Boris and Gove and the other fuckwits in government against a wall until their teeth fall out and some sense is beaten into them. So criticise me. I don't care.
Preach, Sister.
There is so much bad in the country, and the root cause is an act of nature (not the government's fault) that has largely been botched (very definitely their responsibility).
And this is what happens when the people in.power have oodles of confidence, minimal competence and zero empathy.
And the worst of it isn't even that Johnson remains popular. It's the chortling and gloating that follows in its wake. The "it's funny watching lefties get frustrated" stuff.
This isn't a game, but some people follow their leader in treating it as one.
And maybe in all of this why has labour gone absent
I have only a very hazy memory of wartime...... I was 7 just before VE Day ...... but IIRC the headline's in our daily paper were always about the war or about Churchill. However, shortly afterwards I recall my mother telling her sister, who lived with us, that my father, who was still serving abroad, wanted her to vote Labour. And she was doubtful about it. And a month or two later Churchill was out and Labour was in.
My extremely right-wing grandfather voted Labour in 1945, and regretted it for the rest of his life!
IIRC the early pollsters did some surveys and found that many people who'd voted Labour had thought they would get a National Government with Churchill leading, but wanted a bigger share of the... political muscle???? for Labour.
Oddly I don't recall Tory posters, but I do recall a couple of Labour ones on a semi-derelict house close to where we lived. Vote Labour...... Captain Gunter. And I'm absolutely certain that my grandfather, an ex-miner voted Labour. My father later changed his views but never dared tell his father that he'd done so!
Still not sure what freedoms Freedom day offers beyond the ‘freedom’ to resume a long commute, to take off a mask I’m not remotely bothered about wearing or to be crammed closer to some dudes sweaty pits.
How about a simple example: Pubs.
The hospitality industry have had an absolutely rotten time for the past 18 months. Right now with the summer and the Euros should be one of the most profitable times of the year, which would help them recover. Instead its table service only.
If England make the Semi Finals or the Finals then it should be packed pubs with the staff serving as quickly as they can at the bar. Great atmosphere for the fans, great business for an industry that desperately, desperately needs the cash in the tills.
Instead its a case of lets postpone so that people who have refused the vaccine are less exposed - since almost all hospitalisations are coming from people who refused the vaccine. Pathetic.
If the medical crisis really is all that (and is it?) and we need to delay then Dishy needs to put his tiny hands in his pockets and bail out the likes of Cyclefree Jr and say NOW they are doing so.
What is truly breathtaking is that they are kneecapping various sectors - again - and leaving them with no financial support - again. Yes they may have an 11th hour change of heart, but its too late by then. Much too late. Do businesses unable to cover their costs or pay their suppliers or need yet more leeway by the banks say "we don't have the £ now but don't worry the government will bail us out at the last minute".
You can't pay your bills with jam tomorrow. That they haven't fucking learned this yet after repeated examples demonstrates that they truly are clowns.
No amount of government support is ever going to replace what is lost here.
A packed pub in the summer with the Euros could potentially be generating say double its normal trade. If instead due to table service etc they're maybe going to generate its normal trade. What's lost is the opportunity for profits there, with a seasonal business making profits in good times to take the business through the lean times.
Furlough etc aren't especially relevant if the business is trading with staff required for table service etc - what's required is customers not the state.
I would describe any business strategy that is banking on a quick return to 2019 behaviours as brave. The clever business will lean into, capture and capitalise on some of the good changes and look to solve some of the new problems that have emerged.
Sorry to pick on you, but this is grotesque.
It reads like the IMF’s prescription to Greece.
I doubt you would have the chutzpah to look @Cyclefree’s daughter in the eyes and say this.
And on topic I would say good header (it is of course) were it not for the fact that small children in Batley could have written the same, so obvious was it that there would be this delay.
We now wait to see how loud the murmurings about the forthcoming autumn/winter spike will be to see if the new date will be pushed back further.
A child in Batley could well have written this. I did because I am so fucking depressed and angry about the mess - not for me but for my children who have been - and are being - royally fucked over by this government: catching the disease because the government didn't get a grip last autumn, losing their jobs (ditto) and now losing their business. I'm well aware that others have suffered too - in multiple different ways: losing loved ones (we've had that too) so I'm not claiming anything special about my family. Just describing one human perspective to go with all the statistics.
Daughter has been working so hard. She increased turnover in her business by 63% in the first year. It was profitable and set fair to do even better. She has worked her socks off to keep it going since March 2020. This morning she was up at 7 to go and change some lines for some new beer ordered in. She now faces the prospect of losing two big bookings this next month and some more band bookings the following month. The support from the government is being cut off in 16 days time, despite still being forced to operate at less than 50% capacity. She (and I) have zero confidence that in 4 weeks time restrictions will be lifted. This limbo will just go on and on.
Her words to me as she left: "What is the point of carrying on?"
She is 26. Her chef is 30.
What the government is doing to the young (and not just them) is wicked.
I write on here out of frustration and fury because what I really want to do is beat the heads of Boris and Gove and the other fuckwits in government against a wall until their teeth fall out and some sense is beaten into them. So criticise me. I don't care.
I have a great amount of sympathy and concern for you and your family and am pleased you feel you can let go on here your understandable emotions, and indeed anger, at all the let downs
However, my anger is also directed at the scientists, independent sage, and the media who have collectively scared the country into submission, and do not forget Sturgeon in Scotland and Drakeford in Wales are absolute disciples of the zero covid obsession, indeed Drakeford saying he expects restrictions to last into 2022
I can only hope that Boris does say 'enough is enough' and this four week delay will be the last
We need all these extremist scientists to be put back in their box and the key thrown away
It’s always the “extremist scientists” and never the actual people who make the decisions, innit?
It's a convenient boo-phrase.
Yes, there are people arguing for Zero Covid. Whilst that's an absurd target, we'd probably be in a better place now had we listened to them more than we did. A lockdown delayed is a lockdown hardened and extended.
But whilst Zero Covid isn't realistic, Self Limiting Covid is realistic and necessary. Brief outbreaks that flare up and burn out locally, without turning into nationwide exponential growth. The data from places like Bolton are promising from that point of view, but even Bolton isn't quite there yet- it looks like Bolton seeded other local outbreaks before dying down. And the near self limiting seen needed Stage 3 restrictions to work.
So- there's no point the government wanting further unlocking because it's not done the preparation to make that happen. You can't just wish, talk or vote something into existence. And the necessary vaccinations haven't happened, because the government got both cocky and unlucky.
So Stage 4 needs to be delayed, because of earlier failures, which were pointed out at the time. Partly by scientists.
They're further out from the Bolton epicentre but encouragingly look to have a smaller rise of less duration.
If they continue to 'flatten the curve' then it suggests that the Indian variant will have progressively less effect as it moves through the country and the overall numbers might soon stabilize.
Another thing to watch out for is anyone using the word exponential or predicting hospitalisations will be anything above 20% of January to justify further restrictions.
Either are clear signs that bollox is being pedalled.
100,000 cases a day someone was spouting off about on Twitter.
Which illustrates the innumerate bollox we're dealing with.
The highest UK reported cases in a day was 68,053 on 08/01 and no district has reached their own peak day yet.
Angus has beaten it's single day Winter peak.
How?
From the dashboard there hasn't been a single death in Angus since March.
I can't find the in-hospital dashboard data for Angus, but I'd be amazed if that's really passed its winter peak. I don't believe it.
I think GB News have focussed on the presenters, editors, shows and angles to take but perhaps glossed over the "backroom staff" that are crucial to getting a slick professional news operation up and running. The ratio is probably 3:1 or 4:1 or more and you must have them.
Say what you like about Sky, BBC and ITV but they get the technical stuff right and we usually take it for granted.
I watched a bit last night - Dan Wooten shouting at someone is not what I want to watch at 11pm at night. Forensic it ain't.
The economy badly needs to build momentum/confidence to prepare for summer and bring back furloughed staff (still about 15% of employees, I think).
Many businesses are just holding on by the skin of their teeth. Many have given up already.
There is also a moral argument to be made about whether it is appropriate to maintain ongoing restrictions on our civil liberties for a moment longer than necessary.
Unlock, unlock, unlock.
Do we really want to go back to the pre-covid world? It was rubbish in many ways.
Hell no, both people and business have woken up to the nonsense that was paying £dollar for city offices and £dollar to transport your workforce in to do a job they could do anywhere. The internet age had broken the back of bricks and mortar retail and had connected the world in previously unimaginable ways but hadn't smashed the status quo of commuting. It has now.
Yes, COVID has accelerated a number of things.
The next set of issues, which we will see shortly, regarding WFH -
1) Companies start trying to cut wages. "You can live in Northumberland, we aren't going to pay London money" 2) Office equipment - BYOD with a vengeance. Some companies will be making you pay for the office. 3) Legal compliance and data security issue. The 20 something working for your bank, living in a house with 6 other people, looking at 4) As part of 2) a gap develops - the home office capable vs the poorer people living in a shoe box.
Even where I work (high quality job, lots of support from the company) it was interesting to see how non-technical people had to adapt. Many people didn't have a computer at home - they have phones, and tablets. My employer shipped desks, computers, chairs etc to them, for free. How many others will do stuff like that in the future?
The real driver of change has to be that people so often choose where to live based on where they work. That needs to flip to being the other way round. Last year I had colleagues trying to WFH in a shared house with other people also trying to WFH - was very difficult and cramped. How many people have bought / rented rabbit hutch houses and flats because easy access to get them into town and what does it matter that it is tiny? That has to change.
As for the way companies react it has been interesting going into contracting and having to have my own stuff. I have invested in quality gear unlike the often 2nd hand budget capped shite I've been given by big companies. I also got to choose not to give dollah to Mr Gates which does make my clients (plural) IT guys do a double take despite the years of suffering that every employer I have worked for has had with their bespoke versions of Windoze and all that slow performance and outages.
I think Jonathan’s comments above show exactly who is supporting ongoing restrictions.
It is not, actually, those on furlough or the youngest.
It is people for whom the current set-up works very well thank-you, forgetting that the whole affair is being bank-rolled by HM Treasury aka your children’s taxes.
I haven't opined on this because I genuinely don't know. There are very difficult trade-offs involved, a lot of uncertainty and a lot at stake, and I think we should try to trust the people making the decisions and do what we are told so that whatever strategy is chosen is as effective as possible. I think in general the government has struck the right balance in lifting restrictions, but has tended to be too slow, sometimes criminally so, in putting restrictions in place.
He’s done both. Very mostly, yes, too slow to lock down. But often, indeed, too slow to react.
His overriding issue is complacency, and that complacency looks set to cost us another month of restrictions.
Indeed! Given the vaccine miracle it's hospitalizations and deaths that are the key measurement not infections.
If the vaccine means there's 100,000 people with a summer cold in a few weeks then so what? That's no reason to keep the lockdown going...
HMG have screwed up royally on several occasions during Covid and should be held to account for it (they probably won't though).
However, on this delay, I think they are right.
Cases are clearly accelerating exponentially again. The question is whether the vaccination programme will stop hospitalisations and deaths following suit. Chances are it will but it's just a bit too early to say because as we all know hospitalisations and deaths lag cases by a few weeks. (Hospitalisations are up 15% in the past 7 days so there is clearly a risk that the vaccinations are not proving effective enough.)
In the next few weeks we will see more clearly the extent to which the surge in cases feeds through to a surge in deaths. I hope and believe it won't but I think the delay is the right choice at this point.
I think GB News have focussed on the presenters, editors, shows and angles to take but perhaps glossed over the "backroom staff" that are crucial to getting a slick professional news operation up and running. The ratio is probably 3:1 or 4:1 or more and you must have them.
Say what you like about Sky, BBC and ITV but they get the technical stuff right and we usually take it for granted.
A mistake they've made is being on air all day. They'd have been better off starting out as 5pm to Midnight broadcaster and get that right first.
They're further out from the Bolton epicentre but encouragingly look to have a smaller rise of less duration.
If they continue to 'flatten the curve' then it suggests that the Indian variant will have progressively less effect as it moves through the country and the overall numbers might soon stabilize.
Another thing to watch out for is anyone using the word exponential or predicting hospitalisations will be anything above 20% of January to justify further restrictions.
Either are clear signs that bollox is being pedalled.
100,000 cases a day someone was spouting off about on Twitter.
Which illustrates the innumerate bollox we're dealing with.
The highest UK reported cases in a day was 68,053 on 08/01 and no district has reached their own peak day yet.
Angus has beaten it's single day Winter peak.
How?
From the dashboard there hasn't been a single death in Angus since March.
I can't find the in-hospital dashboard data for Angus, but I'd be amazed if that's really passed its winter peak. I don't believe it.
Aren't you switching from cases to hospitalisations to deaths to suit your argument.
I think Jonathan’s comments above show exactly who is supporting ongoing restrictions.
It is not, actually, those on furlough or the youngest.
It is people for whom the current set-up works very well thank-you, forgetting that the whole affair is being bank-rolled by HM Treasury aka your children’s taxes.
I haven't opined on this because I genuinely don't know. There are very difficult trade-offs involved, a lot of uncertainty and a lot at stake, and I think we should try to trust the people making the decisions and do what we are told so that whatever strategy is chosen is as effective as possible. I think in general the government has struck the right balance in lifting restrictions, but has tended to be too slow, sometimes criminally so, in putting restrictions in place.
He’s done both. Very mostly, yes, too slow to lock down. But often, indeed, too slow to react.
His overriding issue is complacency, and that complacency looks set to cost us another month of restrictions.
And you think other countries are going to escape a wave of the Indian variant?
I think the pub trade is a bit more mixed than some are saying. Down where I am, many pubs are doing a roaring trade. One consequence of the pandemic is that they have been allowed to expand their outside seating massively, taking over roads in some cases, so some small pubs have many more customers than previously as they have loads of outside seating now, and large pubs have become larger. Obviously this outside expansion is not an option for many pubs, and also obviously it only works in decent weather. But some pubs' turnover has increased significantly despite the downside of table service.
The government bizarrely and pointlessly undermined the success of its own world-beating vaccine programme by saying that in the spring that it was lockdown that kept deaths down, not vaccinations. Given that, I'm surprised that uptake has remained as high as it has.
I seem to be the only person on here who doesn't think quarantine would have done much if any good. It's a massive denial of civil liberties for people, 99% uselessly since most people aren't infected, and it's not entirely effective, even in Australia, where it's imposed globally. Here, there's a lot of evidence that people simply fly through third countries, there would be a big rush just before it is imposed which would get you lots of new cases, and the crowded airport arrival halls where people have to stay longer are perfect for spreading diseases. And it would only buy you a little time anyway as the virus would arrive through other sources.
Vaccines are the answer at this stage. Neither lockdowns nor quarantine matter compared to that.
Indian quarantine would have brought time for the vaccination program to push ahead. We're behind now because of the large number of delta variant seedings that took place.
Yes. Without the repeated and widespread seedings of Delta, we'd be 4-7 weeks further back in the spread. Which would mean there would not have been any talk of delaying June 21st (we'd be looking at completing the vax programme before it could spike even without extra urgency)
Yes, I think this is the key failing.
I think how the next 3-4 weeks play out is crucial. I expect to see Delta stalling/plateauing with only modest increases in hospitalisations, and I think that will make lifting of restrictions by the end of July irresistible.
I think SAGE needs to be rebooted too. There are just too many academics and professors in it - not enough cognitive or sectoral diversity - and there should be a recognition this will lead to too much conservative group-think. Also, they keep claiming they publish their minutes - but all I can find is technical briefing papers.
I want the path that led them to reach their conclusions to be a matter of public record, including the dissenters - if there are any:
Thanks Ms V; I've skimmed through it and saved a reference. I knew about the camps; as you probably know there's a monument above Braye Bay, not far from the Golf Club, and we used to walk up there when my sister lived in the flats nearby. The monument's in several East European languages; there's both Cyrillic and Hebrew script. I always understood that none of the pre-war residents stayed on Alderney, and so, although all sorts of things were found when they (or most of them) came back in December 1945 there were no eye-witnesses to what had happened.
I do recall, a dozen or so years ago, someone trying to smash on of the remaining German blockhouses though. The concrete was pretty solid.
I think GB News have focussed on the presenters, editors, shows and angles to take but perhaps glossed over the "backroom staff" that are crucial to getting a slick professional news operation up and running. The ratio is probably 3:1 or 4:1 or more and you must have them.
Say what you like about Sky, BBC and ITV but they get the technical stuff right and we usually take it for granted.
I watched a bit last night - Dan Wooten shouting at someone is not what I want to watch at 11pm at night. Forensic it ain't.
Dan Wootton was a prat. However, I found Neil Oliver and Jonathan Sumption measured and interesting.
There is potential there, but they need to start with a well-run operation. It's a basic hygiene factor that will drive the success of everything else.
Good morning. Not read OP yet, its long, will tackle it later.
Switched on GB News and the studio seems awfully pixellated. Looks like they've got an SD camera instead of an HD one in the studio. Oddly the on the road presenter looks better.
Quite frankly its pretty unwatchable. Why the hell invest in a new TV channel, new studios, new broadcast, and well known names for broadcasting - but not invest in a decent studio and decent cameras?
Past their best just like the reporters, bunch of has beens / would have beens , comic singers and just wrong un's.
..and have you actually watched it ? Thought not. Instant kneejerk reaction of zero value.
You only need to look at the absolute losers involved to know it will be absolute right wing , jingoistic unionist crap by a bunch of gammons.
I think Jonathan’s comments above show exactly who is supporting ongoing restrictions.
It is not, actually, those on furlough or the youngest.
It is people for whom the current set-up works very well thank-you, forgetting that the whole affair is being bank-rolled by HM Treasury aka your children’s taxes.
I haven't opined on this because I genuinely don't know. There are very difficult trade-offs involved, a lot of uncertainty and a lot at stake, and I think we should try to trust the people making the decisions and do what we are told so that whatever strategy is chosen is as effective as possible. I think in general the government has struck the right balance in lifting restrictions, but has tended to be too slow, sometimes criminally so, in putting restrictions in place.
He’s done both. Very mostly, yes, too slow to lock down. But often, indeed, too slow to react.
His overriding issue is complacency, and that complacency looks set to cost us another month of restrictions.
Johnson's problem is a fundamental ignorance and lack of curiosity that is a natural byproduct of his narcissistic personality and pampered upbringing. If you are ignorant you learn to react slowly because you lack the knowledge and understanding to respond quickly without making a mistake. Hence the apparent complacency. It's also why he tends to hold the opinions of whoever he has most recently spoken to. He is a terrible leader.
I think Jonathan’s comments above show exactly who is supporting ongoing restrictions.
It is not, actually, those on furlough or the youngest.
It is people for whom the current set-up works very well thank-you, forgetting that the whole affair is being bank-rolled by HM Treasury aka your children’s taxes.
I haven't opined on this because I genuinely don't know. There are very difficult trade-offs involved, a lot of uncertainty and a lot at stake, and I think we should try to trust the people making the decisions and do what we are told so that whatever strategy is chosen is as effective as possible. I think in general the government has struck the right balance in lifting restrictions, but has tended to be too slow, sometimes criminally so, in putting restrictions in place.
He’s done both. Very mostly, yes, too slow to lock down. But often, indeed, too slow to react.
His overriding issue is complacency, and that complacency looks set to cost us another month of restrictions.
And you think other countries are going to escape a wave of the Indian variant?
Upthread there's a Twitter thread from a Dr at UCSF who thinks its going to rip through southern, largely unvaccinated, largely Republican Governor, reluctant to lock down, states and it isn't going to be pretty.
I think Jonathan’s comments above show exactly who is supporting ongoing restrictions.
It is not, actually, those on furlough or the youngest.
It is people for whom the current set-up works very well thank-you, forgetting that the whole affair is being bank-rolled by HM Treasury aka your children’s taxes.
I haven't opined on this because I genuinely don't know. There are very difficult trade-offs involved, a lot of uncertainty and a lot at stake, and I think we should try to trust the people making the decisions and do what we are told so that whatever strategy is chosen is as effective as possible. I think in general the government has struck the right balance in lifting restrictions, but has tended to be too slow, sometimes criminally so, in putting restrictions in place.
He’s done both. Very mostly, yes, too slow to lock down. But often, indeed, too slow to react.
His overriding issue is complacency, and that complacency looks set to cost us another month of restrictions.
And you think other countries are going to escape a wave of the Indian variant?
They're further out from the Bolton epicentre but encouragingly look to have a smaller rise of less duration.
If they continue to 'flatten the curve' then it suggests that the Indian variant will have progressively less effect as it moves through the country and the overall numbers might soon stabilize.
Another thing to watch out for is anyone using the word exponential or predicting hospitalisations will be anything above 20% of January to justify further restrictions.
Either are clear signs that bollox is being pedalled.
100,000 cases a day someone was spouting off about on Twitter.
Which illustrates the innumerate bollox we're dealing with.
The highest UK reported cases in a day was 68,053 on 08/01 and no district has reached their own peak day yet.
Angus has beaten it's single day Winter peak.
How?
From the dashboard there hasn't been a single death in Angus since March.
I can't find the in-hospital dashboard data for Angus, but I'd be amazed if that's really passed its winter peak. I don't believe it.
Aren't you switching from cases to hospitalisations to deaths to suit your argument.
You appreciate there's a lag, right?
Hospitalisations and deaths are the only thing that matter, not cases.
As for hospitalisations I prefer the in-hospital figure as the hospitalisations (going into hospital) figure doesn't take into account the fact that people are going in for less serious cases nowadays and discharged much faster. Hence why in-hospital isn't rising much, because discharges are keeping up essentially with hospitalisations which wasn't the case in prior waves.
I would have quoted the in-hospital data but as I said I looked for it but couldn't find it. If anyone can find the Angus in-hospital data I'd be curious what it is but I don't believe for one second its anything like the winter peak. I expect that cases was used instead and cases should never be relevant post-vaccines.
The lag doesn't matter if people vulnerable have been vaccinated.
Go news seems to be trying to be shit this morning. Sound quality all over the place, notably on anyone out of the studio, or via video link.
Maybe the terrible production values on Gammon Boomer News are a deliberate feature, harking back to the TV experience of the target audience's younger days? Perhaps they should just film it in black and white with a Pathe News style voice-over and be done with it.
I've only just seen this post.
Just to say, I despise comments like this. You've been racist and ageist in the same post. For at least the second time I've seen on here.
The fact these prejudices are applauded in (parts of) the political Left because they're directed at their political enemies doesn't make them any more acceptable. You are "othering" people based upon immutable characteristics they cannot change.
That is unacceptable regardless of who they are or what political views they hold.
Thanks Ms V; I've skimmed through it and saved a reference. I knew about the camps; as you probably know there's a monument above Braye Bay, not far from the Golf Club, and we used to walk up there when my sister lived in the flats nearby. The monument's in several East European languages; there's both Cyrillic and Hebrew script. I always understood that none of the pre-war residents stayed on Alderney, and so, although all sorts of things were found when they (or most of them) came back in December 1945 there were no eye-witnesses to what had happened.
I do recall, a dozen or so years ago, someone trying to smash on of the remaining German blockhouses though. The concrete was pretty solid.
Yes, Alderney was evacuated completely - they had to send a policeman over from Guernsey to rescue the cows who were in agony after not being milked for several days. No one wise takes on German concrete!
Excellent header from Cyclefree. Apart from vaccines the government has made rather a mess of things.
On Zero Covid, though, such a policy would indeed be nuts, but I don't see much evidence that it is the policy. What we have is a 4 week delay to removing the last of the legal restrictions. The rationale is twofold -
(i) To reduce the size of the 3rd wave and its impact on health and hospitals. (ii) To allow the extra time needed to create more certainty in the projected link between cases and serious illness for a vaccinated population.
I personally think it's over cautious and 21st June should have gone ahead. I also think the polling support for a delay is a big factor. If a delay were unpopular the decision of this populist PM would probably have been different.
Still, taken on its own terms, the decision is hardly outrageous, and I remain of the view that it's irrational to think we are sliding into a state of 'permalock' over Covid rather than - albeit belatedly - approaching the point where we treat it like the flu.
But if 19th July is also not honoured I will decamp from the Rationals and join the Paranoics.
"if 19th July is also not honoured I will decamp from the Rationals and join the Paranoics."
In that sentence you have Rationals and Paranoics the wrong way round.
I think GB News have focussed on the presenters, editors, shows and angles to take but perhaps glossed over the "backroom staff" that are crucial to getting a slick professional news operation up and running. The ratio is probably 3:1 or 4:1 or more and you must have them.
Say what you like about Sky, BBC and ITV but they get the technical stuff right and we usually take it for granted.
I watched a bit last night - Dan Wooten shouting at someone is not what I want to watch at 11pm at night. Forensic it ain't.
Dan Wootton was a prat. However, I found Neil Oliver and Jonathan Sumption measured and interesting.
There is potential there, but they need to start with a well-run operation. It's a basic hygiene factor that will drive the success of everything else.
Good to hear that, from your side of the 'culture war', you thought Dan Wootton was a prat. I watched his rather unpleasant rant against the world, and was rather surprised Andrew Neil had let such an unbalanced, hyperbolic stream of invective steal the limelight.
They're further out from the Bolton epicentre but encouragingly look to have a smaller rise of less duration.
If they continue to 'flatten the curve' then it suggests that the Indian variant will have progressively less effect as it moves through the country and the overall numbers might soon stabilize.
Another thing to watch out for is anyone using the word exponential or predicting hospitalisations will be anything above 20% of January to justify further restrictions.
Either are clear signs that bollox is being pedalled.
100,000 cases a day someone was spouting off about on Twitter.
Which illustrates the innumerate bollox we're dealing with.
The highest UK reported cases in a day was 68,053 on 08/01 and no district has reached their own peak day yet.
Angus has beaten it's single day Winter peak.
How?
From the dashboard there hasn't been a single death in Angus since March.
I can't find the in-hospital dashboard data for Angus, but I'd be amazed if that's really passed its winter peak. I don't believe it.
Aren't you switching from cases to hospitalisations to deaths to suit your argument.
You appreciate there's a lag, right?
Hospitalisations and deaths are the only thing that matter, not cases.
As for hospitalisations I prefer the in-hospital figure as the hospitalisations (going into hospital) figure doesn't take into account the fact that people are going in for less serious cases nowadays and discharged much faster. Hence why in-hospital isn't rising much, because discharges are keeping up essentially with hospitalisations which wasn't the case in prior waves.
I would have quoted the in-hospital data but as I said I looked for it but couldn't find it. If anyone can find the Angus in-hospital data I'd be curious what it is but I don't believe for one second its anything like the winter peak. I expect that cases was used instead and cases should never be relevant post-vaccines.
The lag doesn't matter if people vulnerable have been vaccinated.
Yes. There remains an absolute axiomatic obsession with 'cases' positive tests. It is probably the most important comms error the government has made. I hope they do something to rectify that today, but am not holding my breath!
"It’s like having the nerdy, spotty teenager who lives almost entirely in his bedroom decide that everyone else in the family should live like that too. Normally, this would be met with derision and a firm command to get washed, downstairs and showing some manners to Auntie Pamela who’s come for tea."
This level of argument is about on a par with yelling "Get a Life!" at someone you disagree with.
If you don't understand the science, have a go at ridiculing scientists ...
Still not sure what freedoms Freedom day offers beyond the ‘freedom’ to resume a long commute, to take off a mask I’m not remotely bothered about wearing or to be crammed closer to some dudes sweaty pits.
How about a simple example: Pubs.
The hospitality industry have had an absolutely rotten time for the past 18 months. Right now with the summer and the Euros should be one of the most profitable times of the year, which would help them recover. Instead its table service only.
If England make the Semi Finals or the Finals then it should be packed pubs with the staff serving as quickly as they can at the bar. Great atmosphere for the fans, great business for an industry that desperately, desperately needs the cash in the tills.
Instead its a case of lets postpone so that people who have refused the vaccine are less exposed - since almost all hospitalisations are coming from people who refused the vaccine. Pathetic.
NB: The majority of hospitalisations are coming from those too young to have received two doses, or, in many cases, even one dose.
Most recent week for which age-date is published for hospitalisations in England:
On closing the borders, the impression I have always got is that government simply doesn't think it has the political capital to do it. It's not that it's unpopular - even the wokest people I know would support it - but it's unpopular with a very specific and influential sector of society who the government is afraid to take on too often.
On a subject @williamglenn raises - are any other countries being hit by the Delta variant? It would seem remarkable if they were not, but there seems little evidence of it.
The government bizarrely and pointlessly undermined the success of its own world-beating vaccine programme by saying that in the spring that it was lockdown that kept deaths down, not vaccinations. Given that, I'm surprised that uptake has remained as high as it has.
I seem to be the only person on here who doesn't think quarantine would have done much if any good. It's a massive denial of civil liberties for people, 99% uselessly since most people aren't infected, and it's not entirely effective, even in Australia, where it's imposed globally. Here, there's a lot of evidence that people simply fly through third countries, there would be a big rush just before it is imposed which would get you lots of new cases, and the crowded airport arrival halls where people have to stay longer are perfect for spreading diseases. And it would only buy you a little time anyway as the virus would arrive through other sources.
Vaccines are the answer at this stage. Neither lockdowns nor quarantine matter compared to that.
Indian quarantine would have brought time for the vaccination program to push ahead. We're behind now because of the large number of delta variant seedings that took place.
Yes. Without the repeated and widespread seedings of Delta, we'd be 4-7 weeks further back in the spread. Which would mean there would not have been any talk of delaying June 21st (we'd be looking at completing the vax programme before it could spike even without extra urgency)
But we would have had most of the repeated and widespread seedings anyway because people would simply fly through third countries. Or don't Indians know how to book connecting flights?
And also I forgot to add that there is no sense at all in quarantining vaccinated people.
The header makes some good points though I still am unsure how we could prevent our fellow Brits from returning to their homes in the UK, having visited family in India, without freezing them out of the Country for months as per Australia
The public enquiry is years away sadly, so we can all speculate and have our views and it is without doubt that mistakes have been made, sometimes more than once.
I know this is a trigger for some but GBNews are reporting that Rishi is not going to extend furlough
This could be the most important announcement today as furlough has to be the biggest reason why the populace are content to accept lockdown, and indeed have become risk averse , aided and abetted by the zero covid zealots led by independent sage and lapped up by the media
And on the G7 it just underwhelmed in every way leaving the impression it was just a long photo shoot with beach bbqs and no social distancing
I do not agree with Gordon Brown often, but for the G7 to struggle to promise 1 billion vaccines to the world when 11 billion is needed was poor, and Joe Biden's commitment of just 500 million doses was far too low from the onset
Furthermore, I have no idea what they agreed on climate change and of course Macron put his foot in it over the NI protocol and ensured a bitter dispute followed. Of course the EU favour Russia and China just when Joe Biden is seeking support in dealing with them causing more division
All in all a depressing weekend but at least the weather is good and of course England won
They should have been informed in no uncertain terms that if they decided to leave the UK there was a chance they might not be allowed back in for a while if a new variant was identified in the country they were visiting while they were visiting it, as it did in this case.
I think GB News have focussed on the presenters, editors, shows and angles to take but perhaps glossed over the "backroom staff" that are crucial to getting a slick professional news operation up and running. The ratio is probably 3:1 or 4:1 or more and you must have them.
Say what you like about Sky, BBC and ITV but they get the technical stuff right and we usually take it for granted.
I watched a bit last night - Dan Wooten shouting at someone is not what I want to watch at 11pm at night. Forensic it ain't.
Dan Wootton was a prat. However, I found Neil Oliver and Jonathan Sumption measured and interesting.
There is potential there, but they need to start with a well-run operation. It's a basic hygiene factor that will drive the success of everything else.
Good to hear that, from your side of the 'culture war', you thought Dan Wootton was a prat. I watched his rather unpleasant rant against the world, and was rather surprised Andrew Neil had let such an unbalanced, hyperbolic stream of invective steal the limelight.
Thanks. I think he thought it was about him and his chance to (finally) vent.
The role of a good news host is to allow his or her panellists to fully develop their thinking, and explore a rich range of views - without bias channelling things one way, as the BBC or C4 are wont to do at time with their quizzing on the basis of accepted soft-left shibboleths and giving conservatives a much harder time.
If Dan wants to be a shock jock, he should switch to being a panellist himself or get his own show.
On closing the borders, the impression I have always got is that government simply doesn't think it has the political capital to do it. It's not that it's unpopular - even the wokest people I know would support it - but it's unpopular with a very specific and influential sector of society who the government is afraid to take on too often.
On a subject @williamglenn raises - are any other countries being hit by the Delta variant? It would seem remarkable if they were not, but there seems little evidence of it.
I don't think that's true. It's all over the place. Inevitable.
"It’s like having the nerdy, spotty teenager who lives almost entirely in his bedroom decide that everyone else in the family should live like that too. Normally, this would be met with derision and a firm command to get washed, downstairs and showing some manners to Auntie Pamela who’s come for tea."
This level of argument is about on a par with yelling "Get a Life!" at someone you disagree with.
If you don't understand the science, have a go at ridiculing scientists ...
I think GB News have focussed on the presenters, editors, shows and angles to take but perhaps glossed over the "backroom staff" that are crucial to getting a slick professional news operation up and running. The ratio is probably 3:1 or 4:1 or more and you must have them.
Say what you like about Sky, BBC and ITV but they get the technical stuff right and we usually take it for granted.
I watched a bit last night - Dan Wooten shouting at someone is not what I want to watch at 11pm at night. Forensic it ain't.
Far too many of GB News are piss poor quality. Dan Wooten was a showbiz reporter, who has morphed himself into a bit of a shock jock type presenter who deliberately takes a contonarian position to everything.
As the Athletic has shown there is a market for high quality journalism (in sport). Outside Neil, is there really any top talent known for being well researched or an expert in their area?
The obvious hire that BBC and Sky don't have anybody good is people who can do data analystics and disseminate that to the public. As we have seen with the pandemic, Sky and BBC are just crap at this. Literally an old bloke in his bedroom with just a single camera and access to medical journals is better.
Thanks Ms V; I've skimmed through it and saved a reference. I knew about the camps; as you probably know there's a monument above Braye Bay, not far from the Golf Club, and we used to walk up there when my sister lived in the flats nearby. The monument's in several East European languages; there's both Cyrillic and Hebrew script. I always understood that none of the pre-war residents stayed on Alderney, and so, although all sorts of things were found when they (or most of them) came back in December 1945 there were no eye-witnesses to what had happened.
I do recall, a dozen or so years ago, someone trying to smash on of the remaining German blockhouses though. The concrete was pretty solid.
Yes, Alderney was evacuated completely - they had to send a policeman over from Guernsey to rescue the cows who were in agony after not being milked for several days. No one wise takes on German concrete!
I'd heard that about the cows. Were they taken to Guernsey? The dogs, I think, were shot and the only domestic survivors were some cats.
It was a lovely sunny day when we watched the lad trying to break down the blockhouse. He spent all day on it, and then wasn't successful!
If my circle of family and friends is any kind of bellwether for opinion (at least in the remoaning FBPE woke-leftist metropolitan elite world in which I circulate) then opinion is definitely shifting against Covid restrictions and towards getting on with life. That's both amongst the jabbed and the as-yet unjabbed. This is refreshing as we were in danger of culture warring the virus into the ridiculous situation where erstwhile liberals were going authoritarian while an odd alliance of alt-right attention seekers and trouble making trots were marching for civil liberties. I am relieved to see liberalism and some sense of nuance start to take hold.
I had an odd experience with the second jab this week. Had an original date of 8th July, so I went online and booked (using my NHS number) to bring it forward to 25th June at my local clinic, but noticed they seemed to have no record of my original booking. Then got a text a couple of days later saying my appointment of 8th July has been moved to today. I think there's some issue with the records. If I wanted to it seems I could get vaccinated 3 times. First I've heard of this kind of system glitch.
Indeed! Given the vaccine miracle it's hospitalizations and deaths that are the key measurement not infections.
If the vaccine means there's 100,000 people with a summer cold in a few weeks then so what? That's no reason to keep the lockdown going...
HMG have screwed up royally on several occasions during Covid and should be held to account for it (they probably won't though).
However, on this delay, I think they are right.
Cases are clearly accelerating exponentially again. The question is whether the vaccination programme will stop hospitalisations and deaths following suit. Chances are it will but it's just a bit too early to say because as we all know hospitalisations and deaths lag cases by a few weeks. (Hospitalisations are up 15% in the past 7 days so there is clearly a risk that the vaccinations are not proving effective enough.)
In the next few weeks we will see more clearly the extent to which the surge in cases feeds through to a surge in deaths. I hope and believe it won't but I think the delay is the right choice at this point.
Still not sure what freedoms Freedom day offers beyond the ‘freedom’ to resume a long commute, to take off a mask I’m not remotely bothered about wearing or to be crammed closer to some dudes sweaty pits.
How about a simple example: Pubs.
The hospitality industry have had an absolutely rotten time for the past 18 months. Right now with the summer and the Euros should be one of the most profitable times of the year, which would help them recover. Instead its table service only.
If England make the Semi Finals or the Finals then it should be packed pubs with the staff serving as quickly as they can at the bar. Great atmosphere for the fans, great business for an industry that desperately, desperately needs the cash in the tills.
Instead its a case of lets postpone so that people who have refused the vaccine are less exposed - since almost all hospitalisations are coming from people who refused the vaccine. Pathetic.
NB: The majority of hospitalisations are coming from those too young to have received two doses, or, in many cases, even one dose.
Most recent week for which age-date is published for hospitalisations in England:
Your data doesn't show that, since regrettably 18-54 isn't more granularly broken down.
Don't forget that we're down to vaccinating 25-29s and second doses are being given approximately to 40-45 year olds right now.
When the vaccine split of in-hospital data has been given out its been said that most patients are those eligible to a vaccine but hadn't been vaccinated.
On the subject of GB News I think it's a pathetic and intellectually vapid solution to the problem they say that they want to fix. If you think that other news outlets are subject to bias and institutional group think then the honest response is to try and create a rigorously neutral channel. To think that the solution to left wing bias is to create a station with right wing bias just makes the whole problem worse. I will fully admit to not having watched the channel yet but if I'm wrong in my assumption then it's their marketing which is to blame. Watching trailers with Andrew Neil saying he is going to challenge woke doesn't fill me with confidence.
R4 - ScotGov reducing AZ gap from 12 weeks to 8 - have E/W/NI done same?
Yes. I have my second next week, AZ, 8 weeks to the day after 1st.
PS I'm under 40 and they're saying that under 40s shouldn't get AZ anymore for the first, but I believe my second will still be AZ. Any reason to be concerned from this or ask for something else instead?
Not really. AFAIK, all the rare side effects have been seen with the first shot.
I think GB News have focussed on the presenters, editors, shows and angles to take but perhaps glossed over the "backroom staff" that are crucial to getting a slick professional news operation up and running. The ratio is probably 3:1 or 4:1 or more and you must have them.
Say what you like about Sky, BBC and ITV but they get the technical stuff right and we usually take it for granted.
I watched a bit last night - Dan Wooten shouting at someone is not what I want to watch at 11pm at night. Forensic it ain't.
Dan wooten is way too shouty. Neil Oliver looked as if he wanted to disappear when Dan described him as his new friend!
Indeed! Given the vaccine miracle it's hospitalizations and deaths that are the key measurement not infections.
If the vaccine means there's 100,000 people with a summer cold in a few weeks then so what? That's no reason to keep the lockdown going...
HMG have screwed up royally on several occasions during Covid and should be held to account for it (they probably won't though).
However, on this delay, I think they are right.
Cases are clearly accelerating exponentially again. The question is whether the vaccination programme will stop hospitalisations and deaths following suit. Chances are it will but it's just a bit too early to say because as we all know hospitalisations and deaths lag cases by a few weeks. (Hospitalisations are up 15% in the past 7 days so there is clearly a risk that the vaccinations are not proving effective enough.)
In the next few weeks we will see more clearly the extent to which the surge in cases feeds through to a surge in deaths. I hope and believe it won't but I think the delay is the right choice at this point.
Cases are not accelerating exponentially.
The rate of growth in positive tests – nationally – has fallen day on day for the past four days IIRC.
It will be interesting to see whether it continues.
Still not sure what freedoms Freedom day offers beyond the ‘freedom’ to resume a long commute, to take off a mask I’m not remotely bothered about wearing or to be crammed closer to some dudes sweaty pits.
How about a simple example: Pubs.
The hospitality industry have had an absolutely rotten time for the past 18 months. Right now with the summer and the Euros should be one of the most profitable times of the year, which would help them recover. Instead its table service only.
If England make the Semi Finals or the Finals then it should be packed pubs with the staff serving as quickly as they can at the bar. Great atmosphere for the fans, great business for an industry that desperately, desperately needs the cash in the tills.
Instead its a case of lets postpone so that people who have refused the vaccine are less exposed - since almost all hospitalisations are coming from people who refused the vaccine. Pathetic.
NB: The majority of hospitalisations are coming from those too young to have received two doses, or, in many cases, even one dose.
Most recent week for which age-date is published for hospitalisations in England:
That's useful information @Andy_Cooke do you have a link to that site?
It's another good reason why a delay of 4 weeks is sensible (gives more time for the young to be vaccinated).
It's also another piece of evidence that the government's half-arsed approach to our borders has cost lives and money.
R4 - ScotGov reducing AZ gap from 12 weeks to 8 - have E/W/NI done same?
Yes. I have my second next week, AZ, 8 weeks to the day after 1st.
PS I'm under 40 and they're saying that under 40s shouldn't get AZ anymore for the first, but I believe my second will still be AZ. Any reason to be concerned from this or ask for something else instead?
Not really. AFAIK, all the rare side effects have been seen with the first shot.
In my gang of friends the only notable side effects full stop have been with the first shot – I am led to believe that the reverse is true with Pfizer.
Indeed! Given the vaccine miracle it's hospitalizations and deaths that are the key measurement not infections.
If the vaccine means there's 100,000 people with a summer cold in a few weeks then so what? That's no reason to keep the lockdown going...
HMG have screwed up royally on several occasions during Covid and should be held to account for it (they probably won't though).
However, on this delay, I think they are right.
Cases are clearly accelerating exponentially again. The question is whether the vaccination programme will stop hospitalisations and deaths following suit. Chances are it will but it's just a bit too early to say because as we all know hospitalisations and deaths lag cases by a few weeks. (Hospitalisations are up 15% in the past 7 days so there is clearly a risk that the vaccinations are not proving effective enough.)
In the next few weeks we will see more clearly the extent to which the surge in cases feeds through to a surge in deaths. I hope and believe it won't but I think the delay is the right choice at this point.
15% in 7 days is puny.
At that rate it would take six months to get back to the winter peak, but the reality is of course that in that time it will burn out of the unvaccinated young people its spreading between and the vaccine rollout would be continuing too.
Still not sure what freedoms Freedom day offers beyond the ‘freedom’ to resume a long commute, to take off a mask I’m not remotely bothered about wearing or to be crammed closer to some dudes sweaty pits.
I think it's right to say that a minority of people commute on trains to work, (or did before the pandemic). This sounds like a very London and south-east centric view of life. Most people drive to work and it takes less than 30 or 45 minutes IIRC.
On closing the borders, the impression I have always got is that government simply doesn't think it has the political capital to do it. It's not that it's unpopular - even the wokest people I know would support it - but it's unpopular with a very specific and influential sector of society who the government is afraid to take on too often.
On a subject @williamglenn raises - are any other countries being hit by the Delta variant? It would seem remarkable if they were not, but there seems little evidence of it.
I don't think that's true. It's all over the place. Inevitable.
Yes it seems to be all over Europe, in Australasia and the US.
Go news seems to be trying to be shit this morning. Sound quality all over the place, notably on anyone out of the studio, or via video link.
Maybe the terrible production values on Gammon Boomer News are a deliberate feature, harking back to the TV experience of the target audience's younger days? Perhaps they should just film it in black and white with a Pathe News style voice-over and be done with it.
I've only just seen this post.
Just to say, I despise comments like this. You've been racist and ageist in the same post. For at least the second time I've seen on here.
The fact these prejudices are applauded in (parts of) the political Left because they're directed at their political enemies doesn't make them any more acceptable. You are "othering" people based upon immutable characteristics they cannot change.
That is unacceptable regardless of who they are or what political views they hold.
Perhaps you can set up an alert so that you can clamber astride your high horse every time I post something. Boomer isn't an insult, it's a widely used factual description of people born between the mid-1940s and early 1960s, just as Gen X is used to describe people of my generation. Gammon isn't racist, it is a shorthand for a certain kind of ignorant reactionary. Just like "wokerati" is bandied around by those on the other side. It seems to me that GB News is aimed mainly at elderly reactionaries, so I find it hard to think about it as anything other than Gammon Boomer News. As the Prime Minister would say, I am sorry if that offends you.
I think on the whole the public will say: OK Boris, 4 more weeks, we can live with that, but get the remaining vaccines sorted ASAP!
Yep. I think people will give him the benefit of the doubt this time but if 19th July gets pushed back he's in serious trouble IMO.
I'm not giving him the benefit of the doubt. I'm furious.
But I'm not seeing any opposition worth its salt.
Philip if you are furious then please write to your Mp and don’t hold back. We have to shake them out of their cosy complacency that the polls have afforded them.
On a subject @williamglenn raises - are any other countries being hit by the Delta variant? It would seem remarkable if they were not, but there seems little evidence of it.
Since few are doing the quality & quantity of sequencing to know (Denmark & Portugal honourable exceptions), ignorance may not be bliss.
Remember how at the end of last year the natives of Kent were being castigated for breaching the Covid guidelines, until we discovered they weren't. And India having done a great job, until it hadn't......there will be more of those to come.
On closing the borders, the impression I have always got is that government simply doesn't think it has the political capital to do it. It's not that it's unpopular - even the wokest people I know would support it - but it's unpopular with a very specific and influential sector of society who the government is afraid to take on too often.
On a subject @williamglenn raises - are any other countries being hit by the Delta variant? It would seem remarkable if they were not, but there seems little evidence of it.
I don't think that's true. It's all over the place. Inevitable.
Yes it seems to be all over Europe, in Australasia and the US.
Still not sure what freedoms Freedom day offers beyond the ‘freedom’ to resume a long commute, to take off a mask I’m not remotely bothered about wearing or to be crammed closer to some dudes sweaty pits.
How about a simple example: Pubs.
The hospitality industry have had an absolutely rotten time for the past 18 months. Right now with the summer and the Euros should be one of the most profitable times of the year, which would help them recover. Instead its table service only.
If England make the Semi Finals or the Finals then it should be packed pubs with the staff serving as quickly as they can at the bar. Great atmosphere for the fans, great business for an industry that desperately, desperately needs the cash in the tills.
Instead its a case of lets postpone so that people who have refused the vaccine are less exposed - since almost all hospitalisations are coming from people who refused the vaccine. Pathetic.
NB: The majority of hospitalisations are coming from those too young to have received two doses, or, in many cases, even one dose.
Most recent week for which age-date is published for hospitalisations in England:
Your data doesn't show that, since regrettably 18-54 isn't more granularly broken down.
Don't forget that we're down to vaccinating 25-29s and second doses are being given approximately to 40-45 year olds right now.
When the vaccine split of in-hospital data has been given out its been said that most patients are those eligible to a vaccine but hadn't been vaccinated.
The under 54s have largely not yet received two doses - at least, not recently enough to have gained protection from it. The increased protection from one dose should help considerably, but that would probably act to make the spread over that category more linear (zero dose 20-30s versus one dose 45-55s would probably be in about the same ballpark).
Although I fully agree that it's frustrating that the y don't break it down any further. However, looking at the one-dose uptake, it doesn't look like vaccine hesitancy is more of a thing for those in their fifties than it is for those in their 60s+, and we're not seeing a big spike in those.
I would strongly suspect that the vast majority of those who ARE in the 60s+ categories who are hospitalised are vax refusers, and I also suspect that their numbers won't be enough to scupper things on their own.
The big plus is the speed with which we're coming down the age categories. By the 21st of June, we'll have a lot more younger people one-dosed and middle-aged people double-dosed, so I expect the ratio of hospitalisations to cases to continue ticking downwards.
I think Jonathan’s comments above show exactly who is supporting ongoing restrictions.
It is not, actually, those on furlough or the youngest.
It is people for whom the current set-up works very well thank-you, forgetting that the whole affair is being bank-rolled by HM Treasury aka your children’s taxes.
I haven't opined on this because I genuinely don't know. There are very difficult trade-offs involved, a lot of uncertainty and a lot at stake, and I think we should try to trust the people making the decisions and do what we are told so that whatever strategy is chosen is as effective as possible. I think in general the government has struck the right balance in lifting restrictions, but has tended to be too slow, sometimes criminally so, in putting restrictions in place.
He’s done both. Very mostly, yes, too slow to lock down. But often, indeed, too slow to react.
His overriding issue is complacency, and that complacency looks set to cost us another month of restrictions.
And you think other countries are going to escape a wave of the Indian variant?
It depends on their vaccination progress.
The BMA on GBnews (yes) said today that not one Country in Europe has lifted restrictions, nor are expecting to, and it looks as if the US are about to experience the Delta variant
Labour sources say their last week on the doorstep has been "dreadful".
"The issue is almost exclusively Palestine.. On Friday evening, Galloway had been around 45 minutes before us in one of our stomping grounds. Nobody wanted to speak to us."
I think on the whole the public will say: OK Boris, 4 more weeks, we can live with that, but get the remaining vaccines sorted ASAP!
Yep. I think people will give him the benefit of the doubt this time but if 19th July gets pushed back he's in serious trouble IMO.
I'm not giving him the benefit of the doubt. I'm furious.
But I'm not seeing any opposition worth its salt.
Philip if you are furious then please write to your Mp and don’t hold back. We have to shake them out of their cosy complacency that the polls have afforded them.
I have written to them.
I was polite about it, I doubt being ranty would help, but firm and clear.
Still not sure what freedoms Freedom day offers beyond the ‘freedom’ to resume a long commute, to take off a mask I’m not remotely bothered about wearing or to be crammed closer to some dudes sweaty pits.
How about a simple example: Pubs.
The hospitality industry have had an absolutely rotten time for the past 18 months. Right now with the summer and the Euros should be one of the most profitable times of the year, which would help them recover. Instead its table service only.
If England make the Semi Finals or the Finals then it should be packed pubs with the staff serving as quickly as they can at the bar. Great atmosphere for the fans, great business for an industry that desperately, desperately needs the cash in the tills.
Instead its a case of lets postpone so that people who have refused the vaccine are less exposed - since almost all hospitalisations are coming from people who refused the vaccine. Pathetic.
NB: The majority of hospitalisations are coming from those too young to have received two doses, or, in many cases, even one dose.
Most recent week for which age-date is published for hospitalisations in England:
Your data doesn't show that, since regrettably 18-54 isn't more granularly broken down.
Don't forget that we're down to vaccinating 25-29s and second doses are being given approximately to 40-45 year olds right now.
When the vaccine split of in-hospital data has been given out its been said that most patients are those eligible to a vaccine but hadn't been vaccinated.
The under 54s have largely not yet received two doses - at least, not recently enough to have gained protection from it. The increased protection from one dose should help considerably, but that would probably act to make the spread over that category more linear (zero dose 20-30s versus one dose 45-55s would probably be in about the same ballpark).
Although I fully agree that it's frustrating that the y don't break it down any further. However, looking at the one-dose uptake, it doesn't look like vaccine hesitancy is more of a thing for those in their fifties than it is for those in their 60s+, and we're not seeing a big spike in those.
I would strongly suspect that the vast majority of those who ARE in the 60s+ categories who are hospitalised are vax refusers, and I also suspect that their numbers won't be enough to scupper things on their own.
The big plus is the speed with which we're coming down the age categories. By the 21st of June, we'll have a lot more younger people one-dosed and middle-aged people double-dosed, so I expect the ratio of hospitalisations to cases to continue ticking downwards.
"so I expect the ratio of hospitalisations to cases to continue ticking downwards."
So in your opinion could the current situation, or likely future situation, be referred to today as a "third wave"?
Or is the term more likely designed to generate more fear and media headlines (or for other nefarious motive)?
The government bizarrely and pointlessly undermined the success of its own world-beating vaccine programme by saying that in the spring that it was lockdown that kept deaths down, not vaccinations. Given that, I'm surprised that uptake has remained as high as it has.
I seem to be the only person on here who doesn't think quarantine would have done much if any good. It's a massive denial of civil liberties for people, 99% uselessly since most people aren't infected, and it's not entirely effective, even in Australia, where it's imposed globally. Here, there's a lot of evidence that people simply fly through third countries, there would be a big rush just before it is imposed which would get you lots of new cases, and the crowded airport arrival halls where people have to stay longer are perfect for spreading diseases. And it would only buy you a little time anyway as the virus would arrive through other sources.
Vaccines are the answer at this stage. Neither lockdowns nor quarantine matter compared to that.
Indian quarantine would have brought time for the vaccination program to push ahead. We're behind now because of the large number of delta variant seedings that took place.
Yes. Without the repeated and widespread seedings of Delta, we'd be 4-7 weeks further back in the spread. Which would mean there would not have been any talk of delaying June 21st (we'd be looking at completing the vax programme before it could spike even without extra urgency)
Yes, I think this is the key failing.
I think how the next 3-4 weeks play out is crucial. I expect to see Delta stalling/plateauing with only modest increases in hospitalisations, and I think that will make lifting of restrictions by the end of July irresistible.
Agreed on this. And if the hospitalisations rise stalls in early July, I can't see any reason why they can't release restrictions earlier than late July. Obviously it requires seeing what happens between now and then, but given that the primary spread appears to be in those in their twenties (who largely interact with each other) who have around 50% antibodies (considerably lower than the rest of the population) and we're blazing through these 8.7 million people (of whom only 4.3 million or so have no antibodies) at speed with jabs, the engine room of Delta's R can be crushed pretty quickly.
Whilst further reducing the cases-to-hospitalisations rate as more middle-aged people get their second jab and more young people get their first.
Indeed! Given the vaccine miracle it's hospitalizations and deaths that are the key measurement not infections.
If the vaccine means there's 100,000 people with a summer cold in a few weeks then so what? That's no reason to keep the lockdown going...
HMG have screwed up royally on several occasions during Covid and should be held to account for it (they probably won't though).
However, on this delay, I think they are right.
Cases are clearly accelerating exponentially again. The question is whether the vaccination programme will stop hospitalisations and deaths following suit. Chances are it will but it's just a bit too early to say because as we all know hospitalisations and deaths lag cases by a few weeks. (Hospitalisations are up 15% in the past 7 days so there is clearly a risk that the vaccinations are not proving effective enough.)
In the next few weeks we will see more clearly the extent to which the surge in cases feeds through to a surge in deaths. I hope and believe it won't but I think the delay is the right choice at this point.
15% in 7 days is puny.
At that rate it would take six months to get back to the winter peak, but the reality is of course that in that time it will burn out of the unvaccinated young people its spreading between and the vaccine rollout would be continuing too.
Three weeks ago cases were increasing at 15%; now they are increasing at 50% per week.
R4 - ScotGov reducing AZ gap from 12 weeks to 8 - have E/W/NI done same?
Yes. I have my second next week, AZ, 8 weeks to the day after 1st.
PS I'm under 40 and they're saying that under 40s shouldn't get AZ anymore for the first, but I believe my second will still be AZ. Any reason to be concerned from this or ask for something else instead?
Not really. AFAIK, all the rare side effects have been seen with the first shot.
On closing the borders, the impression I have always got is that government simply doesn't think it has the political capital to do it. It's not that it's unpopular - even the wokest people I know would support it - but it's unpopular with a very specific and influential sector of society who the government is afraid to take on too often.
On a subject @williamglenn raises - are any other countries being hit by the Delta variant? It would seem remarkable if they were not, but there seems little evidence of it.
I don't think that's true. It's all over the place. Inevitable.
Yes it seems to be all over Europe, in Australasia and the US.
And those countries that haven't reported it probably just don't do as much sequencing as us.
Or are being less honest?
Speaking of which its irritating that the dishonest lines of the antilockdown covid deniers last year are true now, but saying the truth now makes you sound insane because the earth has been salted.
We could eliminate the third wave of cases by stopping testing. Hospitalisations etc are not going up dramatically, which wasn't true in the winter.
Right now cases are primarily asymptomatic or minor symptoms only. We're losing our minds over something about as serious as a cold for most people now, not even the flu. Its ridiculous.
Still not sure what freedoms Freedom day offers beyond the ‘freedom’ to resume a long commute, to take off a mask I’m not remotely bothered about wearing or to be crammed closer to some dudes sweaty pits.
How about a simple example: Pubs.
The hospitality industry have had an absolutely rotten time for the past 18 months. Right now with the summer and the Euros should be one of the most profitable times of the year, which would help them recover. Instead its table service only.
If England make the Semi Finals or the Finals then it should be packed pubs with the staff serving as quickly as they can at the bar. Great atmosphere for the fans, great business for an industry that desperately, desperately needs the cash in the tills.
Instead its a case of lets postpone so that people who have refused the vaccine are less exposed - since almost all hospitalisations are coming from people who refused the vaccine. Pathetic.
NB: The majority of hospitalisations are coming from those too young to have received two doses, or, in many cases, even one dose.
Most recent week for which age-date is published for hospitalisations in England:
That's useful information @Andy_Cooke do you have a link to that site?
It's another good reason why a delay of 4 weeks is sensible (gives more time for the young to be vaccinated).
It's also another piece of evidence that the government's half-arsed approach to our borders has cost lives and money.
Go news seems to be trying to be shit this morning. Sound quality all over the place, notably on anyone out of the studio, or via video link.
Maybe the terrible production values on Gammon Boomer News are a deliberate feature, harking back to the TV experience of the target audience's younger days? Perhaps they should just film it in black and white with a Pathe News style voice-over and be done with it.
I've only just seen this post.
Just to say, I despise comments like this. You've been racist and ageist in the same post. For at least the second time I've seen on here.
The fact these prejudices are applauded in (parts of) the political Left because they're directed at their political enemies doesn't make them any more acceptable. You are "othering" people based upon immutable characteristics they cannot change.
That is unacceptable regardless of who they are or what political views they hold.
Perhaps you can set up an alert so that you can clamber astride your high horse every time I post something. Boomer isn't an insult, it's a widely used factual description of people born between the mid-1940s and early 1960s, just as Gen X is used to describe people of my generation. Gammon isn't racist, it is a shorthand for a certain kind of ignorant reactionary. Just like "wokerati" is bandied around by those on the other side. It seems to me that GB News is aimed mainly at elderly reactionaries, so I find it hard to think about it as anything other than Gammon Boomer News. As the Prime Minister would say, I am sorry if that offends you.
Funny — Gammon Boomer News is being co-presented by a 25 year old black woman at the moment.
On the subject of GB News I think it's a pathetic and intellectually vapid solution to the problem they say that they want to fix. If you think that other news outlets are subject to bias and institutional group think then the honest response is to try and create a rigorously neutral channel. To think that the solution to left wing bias is to create a station with right wing bias just makes the whole problem worse. I will fully admit to not having watched the channel yet but if I'm wrong in my assumption then it's their marketing which is to blame. Watching trailers with Andrew Neil saying he is going to challenge woke doesn't fill me with confidence.
I’m a bit sad the bbc has lost Andrew Neil. He was great on the politics shows when he was shackled by bbc impartiality guidelines.
I think it bought out the best in him - and the bbc.
On closing the borders, the impression I have always got is that government simply doesn't think it has the political capital to do it. It's not that it's unpopular - even the wokest people I know would support it - but it's unpopular with a very specific and influential sector of society who the government is afraid to take on too often.
On a subject @williamglenn raises - are any other countries being hit by the Delta variant? It would seem remarkable if they were not, but there seems little evidence of it.
I don't think that's true. It's all over the place. Inevitable.
Yes it seems to be all over Europe, in Australasia and the US.
And those countries that haven't reported it probably just don't do as much sequencing as us.
Or are being less honest?
Speaking of which its irritating that the dishonest lines of the antilockdown covid deniers last year are true now, but saying the truth now makes you sound insane because the earth has been salted.
We could eliminate the third wave of cases by stopping testing. Hospitalisations etc are not going up dramatically, which wasn't true in the winter.
Right now cases are primarily asymptomatic or minor symptoms only. We're losing our minds over something about as serious as a cold for most people now, not even the flu. Its ridiculous.
Well, I've said repeatedly that we should stop publishing new daily infection stats.
As for the grim daily pall-bearer pastime of seeing where each country is in the Worldometer league table - jeez when is this going to end? Which country will be first to refuse to supply the information. It would be wonderful if it was us.
Indeed! Given the vaccine miracle it's hospitalizations and deaths that are the key measurement not infections.
If the vaccine means there's 100,000 people with a summer cold in a few weeks then so what? That's no reason to keep the lockdown going...
HMG have screwed up royally on several occasions during Covid and should be held to account for it (they probably won't though).
However, on this delay, I think they are right.
Cases are clearly accelerating exponentially again. The question is whether the vaccination programme will stop hospitalisations and deaths following suit. Chances are it will but it's just a bit too early to say because as we all know hospitalisations and deaths lag cases by a few weeks. (Hospitalisations are up 15% in the past 7 days so there is clearly a risk that the vaccinations are not proving effective enough.)
In the next few weeks we will see more clearly the extent to which the surge in cases feeds through to a surge in deaths. I hope and believe it won't but I think the delay is the right choice at this point.
15% in 7 days is puny.
At that rate it would take six months to get back to the winter peak, but the reality is of course that in that time it will burn out of the unvaccinated young people its spreading between and the vaccine rollout would be continuing too.
Three weeks ago cases were increasing at 15%; now they are increasing at 50% per week.
Can you show your maths for that? I see cases 3 wees ago rising much faster than that, but in-hospital figures after lag aren't rising anything like as much.
The initial pace of vaccinations was very impressive, but it's disappointing that it hasn't increased over the last 3 or 4 months. I assumed it would do eventually, once supplies were sorted out. Many people — and not just young people — would have been prepared to be jabbed at any time of day or night, for instance.
The economy badly needs to build momentum/confidence to prepare for summer and bring back furloughed staff (still about 15% of employees, I think).
Many businesses are just holding on by the skin of their teeth. Many have given up already.
There is also a moral argument to be made about whether it is appropriate to maintain ongoing restrictions on our civil liberties for a moment longer than necessary.
Unlock, unlock, unlock.
It is a massive mistake. 21 June was the exit door. This was our chance.
I think it will be lockdown til spring now. If its another 4 weeks, lets at least make it the default that after 4 weeks we open up unless things get exceptionally worse. Because if its another shall we/shant we then there will always be some risks ahead and mitigating actions that will lead to a near perpetual cycle of delays.
I don't see that much that changes between now and July 21st, the vaccine program will only have increased a touch.
Indeed! Given the vaccine miracle it's hospitalizations and deaths that are the key measurement not infections.
If the vaccine means there's 100,000 people with a summer cold in a few weeks then so what? That's no reason to keep the lockdown going...
HMG have screwed up royally on several occasions during Covid and should be held to account for it (they probably won't though).
However, on this delay, I think they are right.
Cases are clearly accelerating exponentially again. The question is whether the vaccination programme will stop hospitalisations and deaths following suit. Chances are it will but it's just a bit too early to say because as we all know hospitalisations and deaths lag cases by a few weeks. (Hospitalisations are up 15% in the past 7 days so there is clearly a risk that the vaccinations are not proving effective enough.)
In the next few weeks we will see more clearly the extent to which the surge in cases feeds through to a surge in deaths. I hope and believe it won't but I think the delay is the right choice at this point.
Exponential covers a multitude of sins growth rates...
Indeed! Given the vaccine miracle it's hospitalizations and deaths that are the key measurement not infections.
If the vaccine means there's 100,000 people with a summer cold in a few weeks then so what? That's no reason to keep the lockdown going...
HMG have screwed up royally on several occasions during Covid and should be held to account for it (they probably won't though).
However, on this delay, I think they are right.
Cases are clearly accelerating exponentially again. The question is whether the vaccination programme will stop hospitalisations and deaths following suit. Chances are it will but it's just a bit too early to say because as we all know hospitalisations and deaths lag cases by a few weeks. (Hospitalisations are up 15% in the past 7 days so there is clearly a risk that the vaccinations are not proving effective enough.)
In the next few weeks we will see more clearly the extent to which the surge in cases feeds through to a surge in deaths. I hope and believe it won't but I think the delay is the right choice at this point.
15% in 7 days is puny.
At that rate it would take six months to get back to the winter peak, but the reality is of course that in that time it will burn out of the unvaccinated young people its spreading between and the vaccine rollout would be continuing too.
Three weeks ago cases were increasing at 15%; now they are increasing at 50% per week.
Can you show your maths for that? I see cases 3 wees ago rising much faster than that, but in-hospital figures after lag aren't rising anything like as much.
Still not sure what freedoms Freedom day offers beyond the ‘freedom’ to resume a long commute, to take off a mask I’m not remotely bothered about wearing or to be crammed closer to some dudes sweaty pits.
I think it's right to say that a minority of people commute on trains to work, (or did before the pandemic). This sounds like a very London and south-east centric view of life. Most people drive to work and it takes less than 30 or 45 minutes IIRC.
Interesting fact about commute times (apologies if this is well known): commute times have remained static for well over 100 years, at an average of about 40 minutes. When new infrastructure or technologies allow us to reduce our commute times, we respond by getting jobs further away. There is a slightly higher average in the south east but this can be explained solely by a concentration of higher-paying jobs (which makes it worth people's while to stretch beyond the 40-odd minutes).
But on @Jonathan 's point, the freedom to take off a mask is a big one for me. Absolutely loathe them. Also the freedom to have more than six other people in my house will be nice. And the freedom not to be tracked test and trace wherever I go (this is not just an abstract libertarian point; it also involves the risk of being forced to self-isolate for a week).
The initial pace of vaccinations was very impressive, but it's disappointing that it hasn't increased over the last 3 or 4 months. I assumed it would do eventually, once supplies were sorted out. Many people — and not just young people — would have been prepared to be jabbed at any time of day or night, for instance.
The daily average is approximately half a million per day. That's not bad, especially given where we're down to already. We're doing more jabs than any other nation with a comparable amount of vaccines to us done already.
We're down already to people in their 20s being vaccinated and probably only a matter of days from everyone over 18 being eligible to get their jabs so we really should be ending lockdown next week.
Still not sure what freedoms Freedom day offers beyond the ‘freedom’ to resume a long commute, to take off a mask I’m not remotely bothered about wearing or to be crammed closer to some dudes sweaty pits.
I think it's right to say that a minority of people commute on trains to work, (or did before the pandemic). This sounds like a very London and south-east centric view of life. Most people drive to work and it takes less than 30 or 45 minutes IIRC.
Interesting fact about commute times (apologies if this is well known): commute times have remained static for well over 100 years, at an average of about 40 minutes. When new infrastructure or technologies allow us to reduce our commute times, we respond by getting jobs further away. There is a slightly higher average in the south east but this can be explained solely by a concentration of higher-paying jobs (which makes it worth people's while to stretch beyond the 40-odd minutes).
There is the story that Brunnel wrote a stiff letter to the train drivers on GWR about trains arriving from Oxford to London excessively *early*....
"It’s like having the nerdy, spotty teenager who lives almost entirely in his bedroom decide that everyone else in the family should live like that too. Normally, this would be met with derision and a firm command to get washed, downstairs and showing some manners to Auntie Pamela who’s come for tea."
This level of argument is about on a par with yelling "Get a Life!" at someone you disagree with.
If you don't understand the science, have a go at ridiculing scientists ...
You are actually right for once. The suggestion that those in principle in favour of caution are motivated by fear, laziness, lack of a life etc is infantile. The free spirits who advance it, per contrariam, usually turn out to have little idea of an unshackled life well lived beyond going to Ther Pub. I think scientists on the whole know more about science then I do and are guided by the greatest good rather than by zero covidiocy or similar nonsense, and I'm about to fly back to Scotland to sail a yacht to St Kilda, so on most views I have more to lose from lockdowns than the pub goers.
Indeed! Given the vaccine miracle it's hospitalizations and deaths that are the key measurement not infections.
If the vaccine means there's 100,000 people with a summer cold in a few weeks then so what? That's no reason to keep the lockdown going...
HMG have screwed up royally on several occasions during Covid and should be held to account for it (they probably won't though).
However, on this delay, I think they are right.
Cases are clearly accelerating exponentially again. The question is whether the vaccination programme will stop hospitalisations and deaths following suit. Chances are it will but it's just a bit too early to say because as we all know hospitalisations and deaths lag cases by a few weeks. (Hospitalisations are up 15% in the past 7 days so there is clearly a risk that the vaccinations are not proving effective enough.)
In the next few weeks we will see more clearly the extent to which the surge in cases feeds through to a surge in deaths. I hope and believe it won't but I think the delay is the right choice at this point.
15% in 7 days is puny.
At that rate it would take six months to get back to the winter peak, but the reality is of course that in that time it will burn out of the unvaccinated young people its spreading between and the vaccine rollout would be continuing too.
Three weeks ago cases were increasing at 15%; now they are increasing at 50% per week.
Can you show your maths for that? I see cases 3 wees ago rising much faster than that, but in-hospital figures after lag aren't rising anything like as much.
Cases by specimen date -
Admissions
Precisely hospitalisations are nothing like cases.
Plus admissions is the wrong metric, since it doesn't account for the fact admissions are for less serious cases now that end up with discharge faster. In-hospital figures matter more.
Theoretically 500 admissions and 500 discharges per day doesn't matter, whereas 400 admission and 100 discharges per day is a bigger problem.
Exponential covers a multitude of sins growth rates...
I'm afraid it is one of those words where the popular meaning ("increasing scarily fast") has been completely divorced from the academic one ("changing by a power ratio").
Indeed! Given the vaccine miracle it's hospitalizations and deaths that are the key measurement not infections.
If the vaccine means there's 100,000 people with a summer cold in a few weeks then so what? That's no reason to keep the lockdown going...
HMG have screwed up royally on several occasions during Covid and should be held to account for it (they probably won't though).
However, on this delay, I think they are right.
Cases are clearly accelerating exponentially again. The question is whether the vaccination programme will stop hospitalisations and deaths following suit. Chances are it will but it's just a bit too early to say because as we all know hospitalisations and deaths lag cases by a few weeks. (Hospitalisations are up 15% in the past 7 days so there is clearly a risk that the vaccinations are not proving effective enough.)
In the next few weeks we will see more clearly the extent to which the surge in cases feeds through to a surge in deaths. I hope and believe it won't but I think the delay is the right choice at this point.
15% in 7 days is puny.
At that rate it would take six months to get back to the winter peak, but the reality is of course that in that time it will burn out of the unvaccinated young people its spreading between and the vaccine rollout would be continuing too.
Three weeks ago cases were increasing at 15%; now they are increasing at 50% per week.
Can you show your maths for that? I see cases 3 wees ago rising much faster than that, but in-hospital figures after lag aren't rising anything like as much.
Cases by specimen date -
Admissions
Looking at 4 weeks of hospitalisations for under 55s up until the 6th of June and the 4 weeks of cases from seven days earlier than that, they do seem to rise similarly:
(7-day totals of each taken in order to smooth out the inevitable weekday fluctuations).
It does seem to be growing a bit slower in the hospital admissions for the under 55s than in cases; I suspect because over the period of that graph, we're grinding down the ages on vaxxing.
In-hospital figures are growing slower because the under-55s stay in for less time than the older ones and the proportion of these has been growing (looks like about 7 days versus 11 days); this buys us time while the shift goes on, but it does saturate when it becomes overwhelmingly dominant at the under-55s; we don't keep ticking down to 5 days, 4 days, 3 days, etc.
Still not sure what freedoms Freedom day offers beyond the ‘freedom’ to resume a long commute, to take off a mask I’m not remotely bothered about wearing or to be crammed closer to some dudes sweaty pits.
How about a simple example: Pubs.
The hospitality industry have had an absolutely rotten time for the past 18 months. Right now with the summer and the Euros should be one of the most profitable times of the year, which would help them recover. Instead its table service only.
If England make the Semi Finals or the Finals then it should be packed pubs with the staff serving as quickly as they can at the bar. Great atmosphere for the fans, great business for an industry that desperately, desperately needs the cash in the tills.
Instead its a case of lets postpone so that people who have refused the vaccine are less exposed - since almost all hospitalisations are coming from people who refused the vaccine. Pathetic.
NB: The majority of hospitalisations are coming from those too young to have received two doses, or, in many cases, even one dose.
Most recent week for which age-date is published for hospitalisations in England:
Your data doesn't show that, since regrettably 18-54 isn't more granularly broken down.
Don't forget that we're down to vaccinating 25-29s and second doses are being given approximately to 40-45 year olds right now.
When the vaccine split of in-hospital data has been given out its been said that most patients are those eligible to a vaccine but hadn't been vaccinated.
The under 54s have largely not yet received two doses - at least, not recently enough to have gained protection from it. The increased protection from one dose should help considerably, but that would probably act to make the spread over that category more linear (zero dose 20-30s versus one dose 45-55s would probably be in about the same ballpark).
Although I fully agree that it's frustrating that the y don't break it down any further. However, looking at the one-dose uptake, it doesn't look like vaccine hesitancy is more of a thing for those in their fifties than it is for those in their 60s+, and we're not seeing a big spike in those.
I would strongly suspect that the vast majority of those who ARE in the 60s+ categories who are hospitalised are vax refusers, and I also suspect that their numbers won't be enough to scupper things on their own.
The big plus is the speed with which we're coming down the age categories. By the 21st of June, we'll have a lot more younger people one-dosed and middle-aged people double-dosed, so I expect the ratio of hospitalisations to cases to continue ticking downwards.
"so I expect the ratio of hospitalisations to cases to continue ticking downwards."
So in your opinion could the current situation, or likely future situation, be referred to today as a "third wave"?
Or is the term more likely designed to generate more fear and media headlines (or for other nefarious motive)?
It's a fraught term. It IS another wave, but it is highly likely to be very different in scale from the previous ones. As long as we get those doses into arms.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 28m I hope GB News does well. We need more media diversity. But the technical problems aren’t the biggest problem. The biggest problem is to use people who aren’t professional broadcasters to try to anchor professional broadcast output.
“ The US government has spent the past week assessing a report of a leak at a Chinese nuclear power plant, after a French company that part owns and helps operate it warned of an "imminent radiological threat," according to US officials and documents reviewed by CNN.”
The government bizarrely and pointlessly undermined the success of its own world-beating vaccine programme by saying that in the spring that it was lockdown that kept deaths down, not vaccinations. Given that, I'm surprised that uptake has remained as high as it has.
I seem to be the only person on here who doesn't think quarantine would have done much if any good. It's a massive denial of civil liberties for people, 99% uselessly since most people aren't infected, and it's not entirely effective, even in Australia, where it's imposed globally. Here, there's a lot of evidence that people simply fly through third countries, there would be a big rush just before it is imposed which would get you lots of new cases, and the crowded airport arrival halls where people have to stay longer are perfect for spreading diseases. And it would only buy you a little time anyway as the virus would arrive through other sources.
Vaccines are the answer at this stage. Neither lockdowns nor quarantine matter compared to that.
Indian quarantine would have brought time for the vaccination program to push ahead. We're behind now because of the large number of delta variant seedings that took place.
Yes. Without the repeated and widespread seedings of Delta, we'd be 4-7 weeks further back in the spread. Which would mean there would not have been any talk of delaying June 21st (we'd be looking at completing the vax programme before it could spike even without extra urgency)
Yes, I think this is the key failing.
I think how the next 3-4 weeks play out is crucial. I expect to see Delta stalling/plateauing with only modest increases in hospitalisations, and I think that will make lifting of restrictions by the end of July irresistible.
I think SAGE needs to be rebooted too. There are just too many academics and professors in it - not enough cognitive or sectoral diversity - and there should be a recognition this will lead to too much conservative group-think. Also, they keep claiming they publish their minutes - but all I can find is technical briefing papers.
I want the path that led them to reach their conclusions to be a matter of public record, including the dissenters - if there are any:
I understand ~4x as many people are dying from flu as from COVID. COVID's over. If we forgot about it, largely stopped testing, etc, life would go back to normal as in most of the USA, Sweden, etc.
Also if Ivermectin et al were approved for COVID, the fatality rate would decline to near 0.000%, below flu I think. Safer and cheaper than the vaccines.
We're all going to die ... at some point. But fewer people are dying in 2021 than in a 'normal' year. Isn't that enough?
Indeed! Given the vaccine miracle it's hospitalizations and deaths that are the key measurement not infections.
If the vaccine means there's 100,000 people with a summer cold in a few weeks then so what? That's no reason to keep the lockdown going...
HMG have screwed up royally on several occasions during Covid and should be held to account for it (they probably won't though).
However, on this delay, I think they are right.
Cases are clearly accelerating exponentially again. The question is whether the vaccination programme will stop hospitalisations and deaths following suit. Chances are it will but it's just a bit too early to say because as we all know hospitalisations and deaths lag cases by a few weeks. (Hospitalisations are up 15% in the past 7 days so there is clearly a risk that the vaccinations are not proving effective enough.)
In the next few weeks we will see more clearly the extent to which the surge in cases feeds through to a surge in deaths. I hope and believe it won't but I think the delay is the right choice at this point.
15% in 7 days is puny.
At that rate it would take six months to get back to the winter peak, but the reality is of course that in that time it will burn out of the unvaccinated young people its spreading between and the vaccine rollout would be continuing too.
Three weeks ago cases were increasing at 15%; now they are increasing at 50% per week.
Can you show your maths for that? I see cases 3 wees ago rising much faster than that, but in-hospital figures after lag aren't rising anything like as much.
Cases by specimen date -
Admissions
Looking at 4 weeks of hospitalisations for under 55s up until the 6th of June and the 4 weeks of cases from seven days earlier than that, they do seem to rise similarly:
(7-day totals of each taken in order to smooth out the inevitable weekday fluctuations).
It does seem to be growing a bit slower in the hospital admissions for the under 55s than in cases; I suspect because over the period of that graph, we're grinding down the ages on vaxxing.
In-hospital figures are growing slower because the under-55s stay in for less time than the older ones and the proportion of these has been growing (looks like about 7 days versus 11 days); this buys us time while the shift goes on, but it does saturate when it becomes overwhelmingly dominant at the under-55s; we don't keep ticking down to 5 days, 4 days, 3 days, etc.
In-hospital is what matters more than admissions, since as you say they get discharged faster. If patients are being discharged as fast as they arrive then in-hospital numbers don't rise rapidly, whereas if they're in hospital for a fortnight then they clog up the hospitals fast.
Comments
So why is that viewed as more important than Kashmir ?
A good header cyclefree.
And I'm absolutely certain that my grandfather, an ex-miner voted Labour. My father later changed his views but never dared tell his father that he'd done so!
https://guernseypress.com/news/voices/2021/06/14/alderney--is-the-truth-out-there/
It reads like the IMF’s prescription to Greece.
I doubt you would have the chutzpah to look @Cyclefree’s daughter in the eyes and say this.
Yes, there are people arguing for Zero Covid. Whilst that's an absurd target, we'd probably be in a better place now had we listened to them more than we did. A lockdown delayed is a lockdown hardened and extended.
But whilst Zero Covid isn't realistic, Self Limiting Covid is realistic and necessary. Brief outbreaks that flare up and burn out locally, without turning into nationwide exponential growth. The data from places like Bolton are promising from that point of view, but even Bolton isn't quite there yet- it looks like Bolton seeded other local outbreaks before dying down. And the near self limiting seen needed Stage 3 restrictions to work.
So- there's no point the government wanting further unlocking because it's not done the preparation to make that happen. You can't just wish, talk or vote something into existence. And the necessary vaccinations haven't happened, because the government got both cocky and unlucky.
So Stage 4 needs to be delayed, because of earlier failures, which were pointed out at the time. Partly by scientists.
From the dashboard there hasn't been a single death in Angus since March.
I can't find the in-hospital dashboard data for Angus, but I'd be amazed if that's really passed its winter peak. I don't believe it.
As for the way companies react it has been interesting going into contracting and having to have my own stuff. I have invested in quality gear unlike the often 2nd hand budget capped shite I've been given by big companies. I also got to choose not to give dollah to Mr Gates which does make my clients (plural) IT guys do a double take despite the years of suffering that every employer I have worked for has had with their bespoke versions of Windoze and all that slow performance and outages.
Very mostly, yes, too slow to lock down.
But often, indeed, too slow to react.
His overriding issue is complacency, and that complacency looks set to cost us another month of restrictions.
However, on this delay, I think they are right.
Cases are clearly accelerating exponentially again. The question is whether the vaccination programme will stop hospitalisations and deaths following suit. Chances are it will but it's just a bit too early to say because as we all know hospitalisations and deaths lag cases by a few weeks. (Hospitalisations are up 15% in the past 7 days so there is clearly a risk that the vaccinations are not proving effective enough.)
In the next few weeks we will see more clearly the extent to which the surge in cases feeds through to a surge in deaths. I hope and believe it won't but I think the delay is the right choice at this point.
You appreciate there's a lag, right?
I think how the next 3-4 weeks play out is crucial. I expect to see Delta stalling/plateauing with only modest increases in hospitalisations, and I think that will make lifting of restrictions by the end of July irresistible.
I think SAGE needs to be rebooted too. There are just too many academics and professors in it - not enough cognitive or sectoral diversity - and there should be a recognition this will lead to too much conservative group-think. Also, they keep claiming they publish their minutes - but all I can find is technical briefing papers.
I want the path that led them to reach their conclusions to be a matter of public record, including the dissenters - if there are any:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response-membership/list-of-participants-of-sage-and-related-sub-groups
The monument's in several East European languages; there's both Cyrillic and Hebrew script.
I always understood that none of the pre-war residents stayed on Alderney, and so, although all sorts of things were found when they (or most of them) came back in December 1945 there were no eye-witnesses to what had happened.
I do recall, a dozen or so years ago, someone trying to smash on of the remaining German blockhouses though. The concrete was pretty solid.
There is potential there, but they need to start with a well-run operation. It's a basic hygiene factor that will drive the success of everything else.
https://twitter.com/BuxtedFC/status/1404154973265530884
As for hospitalisations I prefer the in-hospital figure as the hospitalisations (going into hospital) figure doesn't take into account the fact that people are going in for less serious cases nowadays and discharged much faster. Hence why in-hospital isn't rising much, because discharges are keeping up essentially with hospitalisations which wasn't the case in prior waves.
I would have quoted the in-hospital data but as I said I looked for it but couldn't find it. If anyone can find the Angus in-hospital data I'd be curious what it is but I don't believe for one second its anything like the winter peak. I expect that cases was used instead and cases should never be relevant post-vaccines.
The lag doesn't matter if people vulnerable have been vaccinated.
Just to say, I despise comments like this. You've been racist and ageist in the same post. For at least the second time I've seen on here.
The fact these prejudices are applauded in (parts of) the political Left because they're directed at their political enemies doesn't make them any more acceptable. You are "othering" people based upon immutable characteristics they cannot change.
That is unacceptable regardless of who they are or what political views they hold.
To do that isn't far off attempted murder, it needs a serious sentence and not just a vandalism slap on the wrist.
In that sentence you have Rationals and Paranoics the wrong way round.
Anyway - I'm going to hold you to that pledge.
'cases'positive tests. It is probably the most important comms error the government has made. I hope they do something to rectify that today, but am not holding my breath!This level of argument is about on a par with yelling "Get a Life!" at someone you disagree with.
If you don't understand the science, have a go at ridiculing scientists ...
Most recent week for which age-date is published for hospitalisations in England:
On closing the borders, the impression I have always got is that government simply doesn't think it has the political capital to do it. It's not that it's unpopular - even the wokest people I know would support it - but it's unpopular with a very specific and influential sector of society who the government is afraid to take on too often.
On a subject @williamglenn raises - are any other countries being hit by the Delta variant? It would seem remarkable if they were not, but there seems little evidence of it.
And also I forgot to add that there is no sense at all in quarantining vaccinated people.
The role of a good news host is to allow his or her panellists to fully develop their thinking, and explore a rich range of views - without bias channelling things one way, as the BBC or C4 are wont to do at time with their quizzing on the basis of accepted soft-left shibboleths and giving conservatives a much harder time.
If Dan wants to be a shock jock, he should switch to being a panellist himself or get his own show.
As the Athletic has shown there is a market for high quality journalism (in sport). Outside Neil, is there really any top talent known for being well researched or an expert in their area?
The obvious hire that BBC and Sky don't have anybody good is people who can do data analystics and disseminate that to the public. As we have seen with the pandemic, Sky and BBC are just crap at this. Literally an old bloke in his bedroom with just a single camera and access to medical journals is better.
It was a lovely sunny day when we watched the lad trying to break down the blockhouse. He spent all day on it, and then wasn't successful!
I had an odd experience with the second jab this week. Had an original date of 8th July, so I went online and booked (using my NHS number) to bring it forward to 25th June at my local clinic, but noticed they seemed to have no record of my original booking. Then got a text a couple of days later saying my appointment of 8th July has been moved to today. I think there's some issue with the records. If I wanted to it seems I could get vaccinated 3 times. First I've heard of this kind of system glitch.
Don't forget that we're down to vaccinating 25-29s and second doses are being given approximately to 40-45 year olds right now.
When the vaccine split of in-hospital data has been given out its been said that most patients are those eligible to a vaccine but hadn't been vaccinated.
AFAIK, all the rare side effects have been seen with the first shot.
It will be interesting to see whether it continues.
Is it just statistical noise?
It's another good reason why a delay of 4 weeks is sensible (gives more time for the young to be vaccinated).
It's also another piece of evidence that the government's half-arsed approach to our borders has cost lives and money.
In my gang of friends the only notable side effects full stop have been with the first shot – I am led to believe that the reverse is true with Pfizer.
At that rate it would take six months to get back to the winter peak, but the reality is of course that in that time it will burn out of the unvaccinated young people its spreading between and the vaccine rollout would be continuing too.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#/media/File:B.1.1.617_sequences_by_country_as_of_21_April_2021.svg
And those countries that haven't reported it probably just don't do as much sequencing as us.
Boomer isn't an insult, it's a widely used factual description of people born between the mid-1940s and early 1960s, just as Gen X is used to describe people of my generation.
Gammon isn't racist, it is a shorthand for a certain kind of ignorant reactionary. Just like "wokerati" is bandied around by those on the other side.
It seems to me that GB News is aimed mainly at elderly reactionaries, so I find it hard to think about it as anything other than Gammon Boomer News. As the Prime Minister would say, I am sorry if that offends you.
Remember how at the end of last year the natives of Kent were being castigated for breaching the Covid guidelines, until we discovered they weren't. And India having done a great job, until it hadn't......there will be more of those to come.
Although I fully agree that it's frustrating that the y don't break it down any further. However, looking at the one-dose uptake, it doesn't look like vaccine hesitancy is more of a thing for those in their fifties than it is for those in their 60s+, and we're not seeing a big spike in those.
I would strongly suspect that the vast majority of those who ARE in the 60s+ categories who are hospitalised are vax refusers, and I also suspect that their numbers won't be enough to scupper things on their own.
The big plus is the speed with which we're coming down the age categories. By the 21st of June, we'll have a lot more younger people one-dosed and middle-aged people double-dosed, so I expect the ratio of hospitalisations to cases to continue ticking downwards.
Pretty clear who Labours target market is in this case
Of course if this is true it makes sense for them .....
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1404343624121425922
Labour sources say their last week on the doorstep has been "dreadful".
"The issue is almost exclusively Palestine.. On Friday evening, Galloway had been around 45 minutes before us in one of our stomping grounds. Nobody wanted to speak to us."
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1404352640935399427?s=20
I was polite about it, I doubt being ranty would help, but firm and clear.
Today, and every Monday, at 5pm GMT, we will release our latest poll.
Will that lead have increased or decreased?
Follow us @redfieldwilton to be the first to find out.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1404363068545581059?s=20
So in your opinion could the current situation, or likely future situation, be referred to today as a "third wave"?
Or is the term more likely designed to generate more fear and media headlines (or for other nefarious motive)?
And if the hospitalisations rise stalls in early July, I can't see any reason why they can't release restrictions earlier than late July. Obviously it requires seeing what happens between now and then, but given that the primary spread appears to be in those in their twenties (who largely interact with each other) who have around 50% antibodies (considerably lower than the rest of the population) and we're blazing through these 8.7 million people (of whom only 4.3 million or so have no antibodies) at speed with jabs, the engine room of Delta's R can be crushed pretty quickly.
Whilst further reducing the cases-to-hospitalisations rate as more middle-aged people get their second jab and more young people get their first.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting#analysis-of-data
Specific section on getting 2nd AZ dose in there too.
We could eliminate the third wave of cases by stopping testing. Hospitalisations etc are not going up dramatically, which wasn't true in the winter.
Right now cases are primarily asymptomatic or minor symptoms only. We're losing our minds over something about as serious as a cold for most people now, not even the flu. Its ridiculous.
They only update the age details monthly, unfortunately.
I think it bought out the best in him - and the bbc.
The ones who will have fun when I am UnDictator of Britain, are those who will justify their actions on the ground of X.
Remember the people who tried to justify the Taliban blowing up ancient religious sites in Afghanistan?
As for the grim daily pall-bearer pastime of seeing where each country is in the Worldometer league table - jeez when is this going to end? Which country will be first to refuse to supply the information. It would be wonderful if it was us.
I cannot see how he will have time to go to the HOC
Admissions
But on @Jonathan 's point, the freedom to take off a mask is a big one for me. Absolutely loathe them. Also the freedom to have more than six other people in my house will be nice. And the freedom not to be tracked test and trace wherever I go (this is not just an abstract libertarian point; it also involves the risk of being forced to self-isolate for a week).
We're down already to people in their 20s being vaccinated and probably only a matter of days from everyone over 18 being eligible to get their jabs so we really should be ending lockdown next week.
BARB Data 1900-2300
#1 @GBNews 164.4k 1.1 share
#2 BBC News 133k 0.9 share
#3 Sky News 57k 0.4 share
https://twitter.com/GBNEWS/status/1404363689025847296?s=20
No one argues when Grandma raises her finger and gives that look
Plus admissions is the wrong metric, since it doesn't account for the fact admissions are for less serious cases now that end up with discharge faster. In-hospital figures matter more.
Theoretically 500 admissions and 500 discharges per day doesn't matter, whereas 400 admission and 100 discharges per day is a bigger problem.
(7-day totals of each taken in order to smooth out the inevitable weekday fluctuations).
It does seem to be growing a bit slower in the hospital admissions for the under 55s than in cases; I suspect because over the period of that graph, we're grinding down the ages on vaxxing.
In-hospital figures are growing slower because the under-55s stay in for less time than the older ones and the proportion of these has been growing (looks like about 7 days versus 11 days); this buys us time while the shift goes on, but it does saturate when it becomes overwhelmingly dominant at the under-55s; we don't keep ticking down to 5 days, 4 days, 3 days, etc.
Does show just how piss poor ratings are for tv news...there loads of YouTubers who would be packing it in if they got as few views as that.
I was watching a restream on twitch (somebody giving their opinion) of E3 game announcements last night that had a bigger viewership than Sky News....
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
28m
I hope GB News does well. We need more media diversity. But the technical problems aren’t the biggest problem. The biggest problem is to use people who aren’t professional broadcasters to try to anchor professional broadcast output.
“ The US government has spent the past week assessing a report of a leak at a Chinese nuclear power plant, after a French company that part owns and helps operate it warned of an "imminent radiological threat," according to US officials and documents reviewed by CNN.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2021/03/23/zero-covid-strategy-makes-little-sense-risk-infection-falls/
I understand ~4x as many people are dying from flu as from COVID. COVID's over. If we forgot about it, largely stopped testing, etc, life would go back to normal as in most of the USA, Sweden, etc.
Also if Ivermectin et al were approved for COVID, the fatality rate would decline to near 0.000%, below flu I think. Safer and cheaper than the vaccines.
We're all going to die ... at some point. But fewer people are dying in 2021 than in a 'normal' year. Isn't that enough?