Can someone please summarise why on earth SKS would support the government in a vote in Parliament?
Because public opinion. And because it’s the right thing to do.
PB consensus is way off vs the general public’s pro-lockdown majority consensus.
The public, Boris & sks are right on this. PB libertarians are wrong.
That's the reason as SKS sees it. His leadership is an unusual experiment in thinking issues through and voting accordingly, rather than trying to oppose the government at every turn. It's the precise opposite of the dictum that "The duty of the Opposition is to oppose".
In terms of electoral success, the experiment is not going well. But it's an honourable idea (even if you disagree with the specific conclusion).
That would be a fine thing - if he were somewhat more .... forensic in thinking the issues through. As it is, he has been an effective nullity.
Zoe survey has been showing massive case growth recently but down to flat in North West today.
Will make for fun conspiracy theories in future years if the 3rd wave shows up in case data with limited impact on hospitals and barely anything on deaths, and more or less stops right as freedom is delayed.
last three days reported covid deaths in English hospitals
It's happened every single time. March 2020 - growth in cases stalls just before lockdown measures announced (debatable, this one, and only really clear retrospectively). October 2020 - cases start to decline just as lockdown announced, and clearly before measures start. December 2020 - cases start to decline just before lockdown measures come in.
It's as if measures are being timed to make it look as if lockdown works.
Commentators really don't like giving goalkeepers credit ! I think that strike is a goal 7 out of 10 times, and no commentator is going to go on about the counterfactual of the save when that occurs.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Waiting until 18 year olds have had their 2nd jabs would be insanity.
Though 2nd jabs should accelerate once we don't need to do 1st anymore and it only needs a 3-4 week gap for the final load of people.
The 2nd jabs won't accelerate. If we're limited to c. 250k doses a day that's a limit. The days of 400k 2nd doses are gone now we've basically written off Az for future use.
Where's your source that we're limited to 250k per day?
We've been using more than that, barring figures reported on a Monday and Tuesday, for months now.
Don't forget we're now starting to use Moderna as well as Pfizer. But currently Pfizer and Moderna need to be used for first doses as well as second. Once first jabs are finished, they can 100% go to second, barring any late first jab stragglers.
Paul Mainwood, same as everyone else given government secrecy. If we had more than that sort of delivery rate we should have been using it for the last 2 months and it's clearly in the actuals we haven't.
In 2 weeks time 1 of our 2 main vaccines effectively runs out of plausible uses (unless guidance changes) so it is screamingly obvious that the vaccine programme will significantly slow down unless they procure extra doses from elsewhere. And if they could do that they should have done it months ago.
But if in 2 weeks time all over 18s have already been offered a vaccine, then it won't matter if it slows down. The rollout will be effectively over and it slowing down will be timed to perfection as we only need to do the lagged second jabs now.
Fine, we're violently agreeing - but they won't have finished 2nd doses for adults until 14 weeks from now, and unless cases collapse (far from impossible) there will be people with influence trying to tie the final unlocking to that date.
I reckon when we get past 80% of 20-29s immune, R collapses (especially if the schoolkids have broken up). The reservoir of pre-vaccinated that Delta's relying on as its last-gasp engine will be exhausted.
It's where those Novavax doses could be amazingly useful. When we get past maybe 5-6 million more first doses given, and we're going at 1 to 1.5 million per week, things look very dicey for the virus. If we can surge 3 million extra per week for a couple of weeks with those putative reserves, we're there.
Zoe survey has been showing massive case growth recently but down to flat in North West today.
Will make for fun conspiracy theories in future years if the 3rd wave shows up in case data with limited impact on hospitals and barely anything on deaths, and more or less stops right as freedom is delayed.
last three days reported covid deaths in English hospitals
It's happened every single time. March 2020 - growth in cases stalls just before lockdown measures announced (debatable, this one, and only really clear retrospectively). October 2020 - cases start to decline just as lockdown announced, and clearly before measures start. December 2020 - cases start to decline just before lockdown measures come in.
It's as if measures are being timed to make it look as if lockdown works.
Zoe survey has been showing massive case growth recently but down to flat in North West today.
Will make for fun conspiracy theories in future years if the 3rd wave shows up in case data with limited impact on hospitals and barely anything on deaths, and more or less stops right as freedom is delayed.
last three days reported covid deaths in English hospitals
It's happened every single time. March 2020 - growth in cases stalls just before lockdown measures announced (debatable, this one, and only really clear retrospectively). October 2020 - cases start to decline just as lockdown announced, and clearly before measures start. December 2020 - cases start to decline just before lockdown measures come in.
It's as if measures are being timed to make it look as if lockdown works.
Zoe survey has been showing massive case growth recently but down to flat in North West today.
Will make for fun conspiracy theories in future years if the 3rd wave shows up in case data with limited impact on hospitals and barely anything on deaths, and more or less stops right as freedom is delayed.
last three days reported covid deaths in English hospitals
It's happened every single time. March 2020 - growth in cases stalls just before lockdown measures announced (debatable, this one, and only really clear retrospectively). October 2020 - cases start to decline just as lockdown announced, and clearly before measures start. December 2020 - cases start to decline just before lockdown measures come in.
It's as if measures are being timed to make it look as if lockdown works.
Cracking point.
Cracking, but wrong. The cases continued to rise until early January, which was well after the lockdown measures came in.
David Paton @cricketwyvern · 1h Two other snippets of data from our "early-warning signals":
1. Latest Zoe estimate for England up 2%. We can still expect to see day-to-day ups & downs but clear the rate of increase has dropped significantly. In North West, effectively zero increase today.
David Paton @cricketwyvern · 1h 2. NHS triage: latest 7-day average (up to 13th June) is actually down 3% on the day and also slightly lower than a week ago.
David Paton @cricketwyvern · 1h Across the whole of the North West, hospital deaths are averaging around 2 per day despite that being the hardest hit region.
Zoe survey has been showing massive case growth recently but down to flat in North West today.
Will make for fun conspiracy theories in future years if the 3rd wave shows up in case data with limited impact on hospitals and barely anything on deaths, and more or less stops right as freedom is delayed.
last three days reported covid deaths in English hospitals
It's happened every single time. March 2020 - growth in cases stalls just before lockdown measures announced (debatable, this one, and only really clear retrospectively). October 2020 - cases start to decline just as lockdown announced, and clearly before measures start. December 2020 - cases start to decline just before lockdown measures come in.
It's as if measures are being timed to make it look as if lockdown works.
Are you sure on those last two? A glance at the Cases by specimen date shows cases declining from about the 11th of November for the second one. And on the third, the fact that the stay-at-home order came in patchwork-fashion easily accounts for that (cases were growing fastest in London; it went into Tier 4 "stay at home" in December 19th. London accounted for about half of all cases in England)
I’d imagine it’s like being at the end of a prison sentence - having spent let’s say 17 months patiently waiting for a year and a half to be up, to be told you have wait another week might make someone disproportionately angry.
Classic HMF training ruse. Have a 4-tonne wagon ready to take people back home in sight at the end of a long and gruelling run/training exercise and as people approach it, it drives off (just round the corner out of sight, usually).
To see how many people carry on the X hundred yards extra and how many people it breaks. Which is a larger number than you might have thought.
That is how the govt is fucking with the mental health of this country atm.
Did it occur to you at the time that the ones who said 'sod this for a game of soldiers' might have been the sensible ones ?
Many tory MPs are extremely unhappy.......but why, when so many of their voters are so happy?
The polls say huge numbers are comfortable where we are. Huge numbers. Opinium today more than 50% in favour of a delay.
In the tory voting older brackets its much greater.
W
I don't know If I'm a 'one off' but If the restrictions are not lifted, I'm writing an email this evening and resigning my membership of Troy party. in many ways I regret not resigning and one of the earlier 'lockdowns' but I did not, so as my only way of expressing my frustration, it will be resigning tonight, unless predictions are wrong and we do still reopen.
Comments
That was Team GB 🤣.
But it was such a bad thing that no one serious has suggested we do it again.
Also can you tell me how many Scots were selected for that squad or wanted to play for Team GB?
As it is, he has been an effective nullity.
March 2020 - growth in cases stalls just before lockdown measures announced (debatable, this one, and only really clear retrospectively).
October 2020 - cases start to decline just as lockdown announced, and clearly before measures start.
December 2020 - cases start to decline just before lockdown measures come in.
It's as if measures are being timed to make it look as if lockdown works.
Mike BassetSteve Clarke:"We're better than the
MexicoCzechsWe're better than the
MexicoCzechs"It's where those Novavax doses could be amazingly useful. When we get past maybe 5-6 million more first doses given, and we're going at 1 to 1.5 million per week, things look very dicey for the virus. If we can surge 3 million extra per week for a couple of weeks with those putative reserves, we're there.
However for England vs Scotland it is anyon'e game - that match is Scotland's World Cup final.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Czechs top the group.
David Paton
@cricketwyvern
·
1h
Two other snippets of data from our "early-warning signals":
1. Latest Zoe estimate for England up 2%. We can still expect to see day-to-day ups & downs but clear the rate of increase has dropped significantly. In North West, effectively zero increase today.
David Paton
@cricketwyvern
·
1h
2. NHS triage: latest 7-day average (up to 13th June) is actually down 3% on the day and also slightly lower than a week ago.
David Paton
@cricketwyvern
· 1h
Across the whole of the North West, hospital deaths are averaging around 2 per day despite that being the hardest hit region.
My Dirty Leeds supporting friends swear by Liam Cooper’s world class talent.
And on the third, the fact that the stay-at-home order came in patchwork-fashion easily accounts for that (cases were growing fastest in London; it went into Tier 4 "stay at home" in December 19th. London accounted for about half of all cases in England)
NEW THREAD
White proportion of each age band:
18-24: 81%
25-29: 80%
30-34: 80%
35-39: 83%
NEW: Hoyle lays into government:
"This House needs to know first. I find it totally unacceptable that once again, we see Downing Street running roughshod over members of parliament"
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1404458127089704962?s=20