I'm very confused. The Scotland fans in Hampden Park chose to cheer their team at the start of the match. I thought that proper fans boo their team at the start of the match...
Did they take the knee?
Nope, but the commentator was very keen to point out that that doesn't make them nasty racists.
Zoe survey has been showing massive case growth recently but down to flat in North West today.
Will make for fun conspiracy theories in future years if the 3rd wave shows up in case data with limited impact on hospitals and barely anything on deaths, and more or less stops right as freedom is delayed.
I do wonder how much of the “increased transmissibility”/massive R number stats are simply a consequence of it being seeded direct from India in to large extended families, rather than genuine random community transmission.
Also claims about “increased risk of hospitalisation” is a consequence of a perception that hospitals aren’t that busy and are any early port of call for anyone showing even mild symptoms. Whereas previously you were encouraged to stay away unless things were really bad.
No idea what the comprison was in previous months, but the PHE data last week confirmed 2/3rds of people turning up at hospitals with covid right now are sent home the same day.
Which just goes to show how much potential there is to distort figures to present a misleading picture. I wonder how much ministers really know about the data they are being presented with and what it actually represents?
Just to be clear - the 2/3rd of malingerers sent home don't count as a hospital admission, but it does paint a picture of a disease rather less terrifying that is often painted. I see the symptoms we're now supposed to worry about are a sore throat and a runny nose.
Not so sure about on here, but in real life my mates are moaning as if we were still locked down as we were last spring. As far as I can see the pubs, cafes and shops are quite busy, & my social media is full of photo's of people out enjoying themselves. Is the difference between what we have now and normal life that big? Maybe it is and I have just become conditioned to lockdown as, at the start, I was amazed how easily people swallowed the restrictions, and argued against those who were worried by that ease
It is a bit weird. We are nowhere near being in a lockdown, yet the last restrictions are chaffing all the more. For some, such as cyclefree’s daughter, this must be awful. For me, I’m just fed up with stupid mask regulations in pubs and at work. We are so close to the end of this, but it still feels far away.
It's the psychology rather than the actuality for most*. (Those who work or trade in the still affected sectors excepted). There has been a gradual easing of mental pressure. But no release. Serious lack of mental health professionals on SAGE. Or anywhere near the levers of decision making tbh.
*Perception, is, of course, indistinguishable from reality.
I'm very confused. The Scotland fans in Hampden Park chose to cheer their team at the start of the match. I thought that proper fans boo their team at the start of the match...
Did they take the knee?
Nope, but the commentator was very keen to point out that that doesn't make them nasty racists.
Honestly I think taking the knee is over done. Irritates me when F1 do it. But why boo it? Why boo the team you are there to support? Why boo the other team's anthem? I kept reading on Twitter "they aren't booing the players". Yes, yes they are!
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
I'm very confused. The Scotland fans in Hampden Park chose to cheer their team at the start of the match. I thought that proper fans boo their team at the start of the match...
I think GB News have focussed on the presenters, editors, shows and angles to take but perhaps glossed over the "backroom staff" that are crucial to getting a slick professional news operation up and running. The ratio is probably 3:1 or 4:1 or more and you must have them.
Say what you like about Sky, BBC and ITV but they get the technical stuff right and we usually take it for granted.
I watched a bit last night - Dan Wooten shouting at someone is not what I want to watch at 11pm at night. Forensic it ain't.
Dan Wootton was a prat. However, I found Neil Oliver and Jonathan Sumption measured and interesting.
There is potential there, but they need to start with a well-run operation. It's a basic hygiene factor that will drive the success of everything else.
I was assuming I'd have to pay for GB News but it seems to have just popped up on my standard menu. So I can get a daily slice of unwoke, right of centre, high blood pressure pundity for free. But I get that on here so I don't think I'll bother.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
State of play in England as of the 10th June update.
Age Band First Second Under 30 21.64% 11.96% 30-34 47.06% 16.91% 35-39 60.23% 20.20% 40-44 71.50% 26.61% 45-49 78.66% 36.04% 50-54 84.73% 62.87% 55-59 87.60% 69.82% 60-64 89.80% 81.57% 65-69 91.93% 88.28% 70-74 94.25% 92.21% 75-79 95.26% 93.38% 80 plus 95.00% 92.26%
Not so sure about on here, but in real life my mates are moaning as if we were still locked down as we were last spring. As far as I can see the pubs, cafes and shops are quite busy, & my social media is full of photo's of people out enjoying themselves. Is the difference between what we have now and normal life that big? Maybe it is and I have just become conditioned to lockdown as, at the start, I was amazed how easily people swallowed the restrictions, and argued against those who were worried by that ease
It is a bit weird. We are nowhere near being in a lockdown, yet the last restrictions are chaffing all the more. For some, such as cyclefree’s daughter, this must be awful. For me, I’m just fed up with stupid mask regulations in pubs and at work. We are so close to the end of this, but it still feels far away.
You have less freedom this summer than you did last summer, before vaccines were invented.
You may think your vaccines have bought you safety, but they certainly have not bought you freedom.
Scottish fans get plenty of practice booing their players at half time and at the end of matches. It would be a bit unfair to do it at the start as well.
Not so sure about on here, but in real life my mates are moaning as if we were still locked down as we were last spring. As far as I can see the pubs, cafes and shops are quite busy, & my social media is full of photo's of people out enjoying themselves. Is the difference between what we have now and normal life that big? Maybe it is and I have just become conditioned to lockdown as, at the start, I was amazed how easily people swallowed the restrictions, and argued against those who were worried by that ease
Very little difference to me, a huge one for my kids: no gigs, no clubs, no parties, etc.
I'm very confused. The Scotland fans in Hampden Park chose to cheer their team at the start of the match. I thought that proper fans boo their team at the start of the match...
Did they take the knee?
Nope, but the commentator was very keen to point out that that doesn't make them nasty racists.
Honestly I think taking the knee is over done. Irritates me when F1 do it. But why boo it? Why boo the team you are there to support? Why boo the other team's anthem? I kept reading on Twitter "they aren't booing the players". Yes, yes they are!
How can you tell they weren't cheering them not taking the knee?
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
We're already up to 78.9% of adults getting their first dose. 87.7% in Wales who say everyone has now been offered a vaccine.
So if there's only about 8% of population left to do in England to get to that point where everyone has been offered a vaccine, then how long is that going to take at current rates?
I'm guessing on current trends we'd reach that point where everyone will have been offered the vaccine within about 3 weeks.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
Depends on takeup. As at yesterday, I make it just over 5.5 million first doses for 90% takeup (which would be disappointing), 8.2 million for 95% takeup (which is a feasible target, I reckon), and 10.8 million for 100% takeup (I wish).
Scottish fans get plenty of practice booing their players at half time and at the end of matches. It would be a bit unfair to do it at the start as well.
Excellent header from Cyclefree. Apart from vaccines the government has made rather a mess of things.
On Zero Covid, though, such a policy would indeed be nuts, but I don't see much evidence that it is the policy. What we have is a 4 week delay to removing the last of the legal restrictions. The rationale is twofold -
(i) To reduce the size of the 3rd wave and its impact on health and hospitals. (ii) To allow the extra time needed to create more certainty in the projected link between cases and serious illness for a vaccinated population.
I personally think it's over cautious and 21st June should have gone ahead. I also think the polling support for a delay is a big factor. If a delay were unpopular the decision of this populist PM would probably have been different.
Still, taken on its own terms, the decision is hardly outrageous, and I remain of the view that it's irrational to think we are sliding into a state of 'permalock' over Covid rather than - albeit belatedly - approaching the point where we treat it like the flu.
But if 19th July is also not honoured I will decamp from the Rationals and join the Paranoics.
What third wave? Don't buy into this. See NHS Dashboard.
There's a 3rd wave of cases developing - this is there in the data - but it's not 100% clear yet to what extent it will feed through to hospitalizations. This is my understanding of where we are.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
We're already up to 78.9% of adults getting their first dose. 87.7% in Wales who say everyone has now been offered a vaccine.
So if there's only about 8% of population left to do in England to get to that point where everyone has been offered a vaccine, then how long is that going to take at current rates?
I'm guessing on current trends we'd reach that point where everyone will have been offered the vaccine within about 3 weeks.
“Having checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland is not the way forward. Having any checks between the Republic and Northern Ireland is absolutely not the way forward so we’re going to have to make progress. There’s probably going to gave to be flexibility on both sides as ever.”
Not so sure about on here, but in real life my mates are moaning as if we were still locked down as we were last spring. As far as I can see the pubs, cafes and shops are quite busy, & my social media is full of photo's of people out enjoying themselves. Is the difference between what we have now and normal life that big? Maybe it is and I have just become conditioned to lockdown as, at the start, I was amazed how easily people swallowed the restrictions, and argued against those who were worried by that ease
It is a bit weird. We are nowhere near being in a lockdown, yet the last restrictions are chaffing all the more. For some, such as cyclefree’s daughter, this must be awful. For me, I’m just fed up with stupid mask regulations in pubs and at work. We are so close to the end of this, but it still feels far away.
I’d imagine it’s like being at the end of a prison sentence - having spent let’s say 17 months patiently waiting for a year and a half to be up, to be told you have wait another week might make someone disproportionately angry.
The rules say that Scotland must need a 3-0 win in their last group game to qualify and after a brave fight they must fall just short. Winning this game is against the rules.
Excellent header from Cyclefree. Apart from vaccines the government has made rather a mess of things.
On Zero Covid, though, such a policy would indeed be nuts, but I don't see much evidence that it is the policy. What we have is a 4 week delay to removing the last of the legal restrictions. The rationale is twofold -
(i) To reduce the size of the 3rd wave and its impact on health and hospitals. (ii) To allow the extra time needed to create more certainty in the projected link between cases and serious illness for a vaccinated population.
I personally think it's over cautious and 21st June should have gone ahead. I also think the polling support for a delay is a big factor. If a delay were unpopular the decision of this populist PM would probably have been different.
Still, taken on its own terms, the decision is hardly outrageous, and I remain of the view that it's irrational to think we are sliding into a state of 'permalock' over Covid rather than - albeit belatedly - approaching the point where we treat it like the flu.
But if 19th July is also not honoured I will decamp from the Rationals and join the Paranoics.
"if 19th July is also not honoured I will decamp from the Rationals and join the Paranoics."
In that sentence you have Rationals and Paranoics the wrong way round.
Anyway - I'm going to hold you to that pledge.
Please do. But I won't even try to wriggle. We're in the grey zone atm but should 19th July not happen there will be a category flip, ie what previously looked irrational will now look rational, and vice versa. And so I would have to flip with it.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
Depends on takeup. As at yesterday, I make it just over 5.5 million first doses for 90% takeup (which would be disappointing), 8.2 million for 95% takeup (which is a feasible target, I reckon), and 10.8 million for 100% takeup (I wish).
That's UK-wide, for all adults, for first doses.
For England, using June 10th data, I make it, for 90% coverage
Age band First Second Under 30 6,476,491 7,533,193 30-34 2,022,532 3,442,343 35-39 1,334,734 3,129,928 40-44 759,794 2,603,661 45-49 451,955 2,151,259 50-54 222,458 1,144,331 55-59 97,913 821,688 60-64 6,880 290,640 65-69 0 49,697 70-74 0 0 75-79 0 0 80+ 0 0
To say Sky News is supposed to have these "big hitters"* like Kay Burley and Adam Boulton...they do really badly these days.
* by big hitters I mean known names, not intellectual giants.
I genuinely can't see how you can run a full scale tv production on even 150k viewers that will turn any sort of profit.
Sky News has always been running at a loss but Murdoch like the prestige.
BBC News is funded by the license but that too would run at a loss.
I suspect once Comcast's agreement to keep Sky News running expires at the end of this decade there will be no Sky News.
Comcast seem to like the prestige too.
Certainly unless there's something going on behind the scenes the Daily Climate Show and other stuff Comcast now has Sky News doing seem to be done more to gain Twitter credibility than to get revenues in.
I’d imagine it’s like being at the end of a prison sentence - having spent let’s say 17 months patiently waiting for a year and a half to be up, to be told you have wait another week might make someone disproportionately angry.
Classic HMF training ruse. Have a 4-tonne wagon ready to take people back home in sight at the end of a long and gruelling run/training exercise and as people approach it, it drives off (just round the corner out of sight, usually).
To see how many people carry on the X hundred yards extra and how many people it breaks. Which is a larger number than you might have thought.
That is how the govt is fucking with the mental health of this country atm.
The rules say that Scotland must need a 3-0 win in their last group game to qualify and after a brave fight they must fall just short. Winning this game is against the rules.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
We're currently doing 1.2-1.5 million first doses per week, and those will be all non-AZ at the moment.
To say Sky News is supposed to have these "big hitters"* like Kay Burley and Adam Boulton...they do really badly these days.
* by big hitters I mean known names, not intellectual giants.
I genuinely can't see how you can run a full scale tv production on even 150k viewers that will turn any sort of profit.
Sky News has always been running at a loss but Murdoch like the prestige.
BBC News is funded by the license but that too would run at a loss.
I suspect once Comcast's agreement to keep Sky News running expires at the end of this decade there will be no Sky News.
Comcast seem to like the prestige too.
Certainly unless there's something going on behind the scenes the Daily Climate Show and other stuff Comcast now has Sky News doing seem to be done more to gain Twitter credibility than to get revenues in.
Comcast look at the bottom line.
Just look up the sporting rights they've given up.
With more and more content going exclusively to streamers then Sky are going to struggle this decade.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
The rules say that Scotland must need a 3-0 win in their last group game to qualify and after a brave fight they must fall just short. Winning this game is against the rules.
There was of course Euro 96 where England got to knock Scotland out by carelessly conceding when 4-0 up...
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
Depends on takeup. As at yesterday, I make it just over 5.5 million first doses for 90% takeup (which would be disappointing), 8.2 million for 95% takeup (which is a feasible target, I reckon), and 10.8 million for 100% takeup (I wish).
That's UK-wide, for all adults, for first doses.
For England, using June 10th data, I make it, for 90% coverage
Age band First Second Under 30 6,476,491 7,533,193 30-34 2,022,532 3,442,343 35-39 1,334,734 3,129,928 40-44 759,794 2,603,661 45-49 451,955 2,151,259 50-54 222,458 1,144,331 55-59 97,913 821,688 60-64 6,880 290,640 65-69 0 49,697 70-74 0 0 75-79 0 0 80+ 0 0
I'm just going off the crude numbers of people. 52.3 million total 18+ gives just over 47.1 million for 90% coverage and just under 49.8 million for 95%
Zoe survey has been showing massive case growth recently but down to flat in North West today.
Will make for fun conspiracy theories in future years if the 3rd wave shows up in case data with limited impact on hospitals and barely anything on deaths, and more or less stops right as freedom is delayed.
last three days reported covid deaths in English hospitals
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months. At 1.2m per week it would take 3 weeks.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Zoe survey has been showing massive case growth recently but down to flat in North West today.
Will make for fun conspiracy theories in future years if the 3rd wave shows up in case data with limited impact on hospitals and barely anything on deaths, and more or less stops right as freedom is delayed.
last three days reported covid deaths in English hospitals
I’d imagine it’s like being at the end of a prison sentence - having spent let’s say 17 months patiently waiting for a year and a half to be up, to be told you have wait another week might make someone disproportionately angry.
Classic HMF training ruse. Have a 4-tonne wagon ready to take people back home in sight at the end of a long and gruelling run/training exercise and as people approach it, it drives off (just round the corner out of sight, usually).
To see how many people carry on the X hundred yards extra and how many people it breaks. Which is a larger number than you might have thought.
That is how the govt is fucking with the mental health of this country atm.
I was thinking of the American prisoner in Midnight Express! To be honest I didn’t even realise that 21st meant ‘as you were in 2019’ until the other day. I reckon a lot of people will self impose restrictions anyway, if and when that day does come
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Waiting until 18 year olds have had their 2nd jabs would be insanity.
Though 2nd jabs should accelerate once we don't need to do 1st anymore and it only needs a 3-4 week gap for the final load of people.
Zoe survey has been showing massive case growth recently but down to flat in North West today.
Will make for fun conspiracy theories in future years if the 3rd wave shows up in case data with limited impact on hospitals and barely anything on deaths, and more or less stops right as freedom is delayed.
last three days reported covid deaths in English hospitals
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Waiting until 18 year olds have had their 2nd jabs would be insanity.
Though 2nd jabs should accelerate once we don't need to do 1st anymore and it only needs a 3-4 week gap for the final load of people.
I agree. There will be public health officials arguing for it though. We can hope they're in a tiny minority, but no one has yet lost their shirt betting on myopic 'caution' from those quarters.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Have to wait till every 18 year old has had their booster jab.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Waiting until 18 year olds have had their 2nd jabs would be insanity.
Though 2nd jabs should accelerate once we don't need to do 1st anymore and it only needs a 3-4 week gap for the final load of people.
The 2nd jabs won't accelerate. If we're limited to c. 250k doses a day that's a limit. The days of 400k 2nd doses are gone now we've basically written off Az for future use.
The rules say that Scotland must need a 3-0 win in their last group game to qualify and after a brave fight they must fall just short. Winning this game is against the rules.
There was of course Euro 96 where England got to knock Scotland out by carelessly conceding when 4-0 up...
I'd forgotten that one!
There were several others (including a 2-2 with the Soviets in '82 which included an Alan Hansen blooper), but the Holland game in '78 was the all time classic.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Waiting until 18 year olds have had their 2nd jabs would be insanity.
Though 2nd jabs should accelerate once we don't need to do 1st anymore and it only needs a 3-4 week gap for the final load of people.
Why stop at 18-yr olds? Either people can pass it on or they can't. If an 18-yr old can pass it on, so can a 12-yr old. And an 8-yr old.
Zoe survey has been showing massive case growth recently but down to flat in North West today.
Will make for fun conspiracy theories in future years if the 3rd wave shows up in case data with limited impact on hospitals and barely anything on deaths, and more or less stops right as freedom is delayed.
last three days reported covid deaths in English hospitals
Aren't numbers that recent meaningless because of delayed reporting?
They're a daily reported number rather than a claimed number for deaths on those days, so they won't be updated - they're lumpy but theoretically comparable to prior figures and in this case continue to show no surge in deaths thankfully.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Have to wait till every 18 year old has had their booster jab.
Could be done by the end of July potentially, if we can just maintain current vaccination rates (using an 87% takeup figure).
Then get under 18s their first doses before schools return in September.
I’d imagine it’s like being at the end of a prison sentence - having spent let’s say 17 months patiently waiting for a year and a half to be up, to be told you have wait another week might make someone disproportionately angry.
Classic HMF training ruse. Have a 4-tonne wagon ready to take people back home in sight at the end of a long and gruelling run/training exercise and as people approach it, it drives off (just round the corner out of sight, usually).
To see how many people carry on the X hundred yards extra and how many people it breaks. Which is a larger number than you might have thought.
That is how the govt is fucking with the mental health of this country atm.
Yes, I can just imagine you driving that truck around the corner, chuckling away and having fun.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Waiting until 18 year olds have had their 2nd jabs would be insanity.
Though 2nd jabs should accelerate once we don't need to do 1st anymore and it only needs a 3-4 week gap for the final load of people.
The 2nd jabs won't accelerate. If we're limited to c. 250k doses a day that's a limit. The days of 400k 2nd doses are gone now we've basically written off Az for future use.
Where's your source that we're limited to 250k per day?
We've been using more than that, barring figures reported on a Monday and Tuesday, for months now.
Don't forget we're now starting to use Moderna as well as Pfizer. But currently Pfizer and Moderna need to be used for first doses as well as second. Once first jabs are finished, they can 100% go to second, barring any late first jab stragglers.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Have to wait till every 18 year old has had their booster jab.
Could be done by the end of July potentially, if we can just maintain current vaccination rates (using an 87% takeup figure).
Then get under 18s their first doses before schools return in September.
Our current rate is flattered by giving 2nd doses of Az to 40 somethings. We run out of Az 2nd doses to give in 2 or 3 weeks and then we're left with a very finite resource to try to cover further 1st doses and all 2nd doses. Unless they find an alternative course or change Az guidance we're going to slow down further, not speed up.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Waiting until 18 year olds have had their 2nd jabs would be insanity.
Though 2nd jabs should accelerate once we don't need to do 1st anymore and it only needs a 3-4 week gap for the final load of people.
The 2nd jabs won't accelerate. If we're limited to c. 250k doses a day that's a limit. The days of 400k 2nd doses are gone now we've basically written off Az for future use.
Here is the doses split to 2nd June (That's as far as I can go given the yellow card reporting)
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Waiting until 18 year olds have had their 2nd jabs would be insanity.
Though 2nd jabs should accelerate once we don't need to do 1st anymore and it only needs a 3-4 week gap for the final load of people.
The 2nd jabs won't accelerate. If we're limited to c. 250k doses a day that's a limit. The days of 400k 2nd doses are gone now we've basically written off Az for future use.
Where's your source that we're limited to 250k per day?
We've been using more than that, barring figures reported on a Monday and Tuesday, for months now.
Don't forget we're now starting to use Moderna as well as Pfizer. But currently Pfizer and Moderna need to be used for first doses as well as second. Once first jabs are finished, they can 100% go to second, barring any late first jab stragglers.
Paul Mainwood, same as everyone else given government secrecy. If we had more than that sort of delivery rate we should have been using it for the last 2 months and it's clearly in the actuals we haven't.
In 2 weeks time 1 of our 2 main vaccines effectively runs out of plausible uses (unless guidance changes) so it is screamingly obvious that the vaccine programme will significantly slow down unless they procure extra doses from elsewhere. And if they could do that they should have done it months ago.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Waiting until 18 year olds have had their 2nd jabs would be insanity.
Though 2nd jabs should accelerate once we don't need to do 1st anymore and it only needs a 3-4 week gap for the final load of people.
Why stop at 18-yr olds? Either people can pass it on or they can't. If an 18-yr old can pass it on, so can a 12-yr old. And an 8-yr old.
Under 18s don't really get hospitalised by any significant number at all.
Plus ironically at the point we'll be ready to start vaccinating children, the schools will have broken up for the summer holidays so spread in kids will be dropping off not accelerating.
Getting as many jabs into arms of kids before they go back in September would not be a bad idea at all, but the risk to hospitalisations really will be over already.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Waiting until 18 year olds have had their 2nd jabs would be insanity.
Though 2nd jabs should accelerate once we don't need to do 1st anymore and it only needs a 3-4 week gap for the final load of people.
The 2nd jabs won't accelerate. If we're limited to c. 250k doses a day that's a limit. The days of 400k 2nd doses are gone now we've basically written off Az for future use.
Here is the doses split to 2nd June (That's as far as I can go given the yellow card reporting)
Plenty of Astra 2nds left to accelerate
I suspect that there’s a reasonable chance that a not insignificant number of people aren’t turning up for their second AZ vaccine.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Waiting until 18 year olds have had their 2nd jabs would be insanity.
Though 2nd jabs should accelerate once we don't need to do 1st anymore and it only needs a 3-4 week gap for the final load of people.
The 2nd jabs won't accelerate. If we're limited to c. 250k doses a day that's a limit. The days of 400k 2nd doses are gone now we've basically written off Az for future use.
Where's your source that we're limited to 250k per day?
We've been using more than that, barring figures reported on a Monday and Tuesday, for months now.
Don't forget we're now starting to use Moderna as well as Pfizer. But currently Pfizer and Moderna need to be used for first doses as well as second. Once first jabs are finished, they can 100% go to second, barring any late first jab stragglers.
Paul Mainwood, same as everyone else given government secrecy. If we had more than that sort of delivery rate we should have been using it for the last 2 months and it's clearly in the actuals we haven't.
In 2 weeks time 1 of our 2 main vaccines effectively runs out of plausible uses (unless guidance changes) so it is screamingly obvious that the vaccine programme will significantly slow down unless they procure extra doses from elsewhere. And if they could do that they should have done it months ago.
But if in 2 weeks time all over 18s have already been offered a vaccine, then it won't matter if it slows down. The rollout will be effectively over and it slowing down will be timed to perfection as we only need to do the lagged second jabs now.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Waiting until 18 year olds have had their 2nd jabs would be insanity.
Though 2nd jabs should accelerate once we don't need to do 1st anymore and it only needs a 3-4 week gap for the final load of people.
The 2nd jabs won't accelerate. If we're limited to c. 250k doses a day that's a limit. The days of 400k 2nd doses are gone now we've basically written off Az for future use.
Here is the doses split to 2nd June (That's as far as I can go given the yellow card reporting)
Plenty of Astra 2nds left to accelerate
I suspect that there’s a reasonable chance that a not insignificant number of people aren’t turning up for their second AZ vaccine.
When I got my second jab, last week, they were running four lanes of Pfizer and four lanes of AZN.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Waiting until 18 year olds have had their 2nd jabs would be insanity.
Though 2nd jabs should accelerate once we don't need to do 1st anymore and it only needs a 3-4 week gap for the final load of people.
The 2nd jabs won't accelerate. If we're limited to c. 250k doses a day that's a limit. The days of 400k 2nd doses are gone now we've basically written off Az for future use.
Where's your source that we're limited to 250k per day?
We've been using more than that, barring figures reported on a Monday and Tuesday, for months now.
Don't forget we're now starting to use Moderna as well as Pfizer. But currently Pfizer and Moderna need to be used for first doses as well as second. Once first jabs are finished, they can 100% go to second, barring any late first jab stragglers.
Paul Mainwood, same as everyone else given government secrecy. If we had more than that sort of delivery rate we should have been using it for the last 2 months and it's clearly in the actuals we haven't.
In 2 weeks time 1 of our 2 main vaccines effectively runs out of plausible uses (unless guidance changes) so it is screamingly obvious that the vaccine programme will significantly slow down unless they procure extra doses from elsewhere. And if they could do that they should have done it months ago.
But if in 2 weeks time all over 18s have already been offered a vaccine, then it won't matter if it slows down. The rollout will be effectively over and it slowing down will be timed to perfection as we only need to do the lagged second jabs now.
Fine, we're violently agreeing - but they won't have finished 2nd doses for adults until 14 weeks from now, and unless cases collapse (far from impossible) there will be people with influence trying to tie the final unlocking to that date.
Zoe survey has been showing massive case growth recently but down to flat in North West today.
Will make for fun conspiracy theories in future years if the 3rd wave shows up in case data with limited impact on hospitals and barely anything on deaths, and more or less stops right as freedom is delayed.
last three days reported covid deaths in English hospitals
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Waiting until 18 year olds have had their 2nd jabs would be insanity.
Though 2nd jabs should accelerate once we don't need to do 1st anymore and it only needs a 3-4 week gap for the final load of people.
The 2nd jabs won't accelerate. If we're limited to c. 250k doses a day that's a limit. The days of 400k 2nd doses are gone now we've basically written off Az for future use.
Where's your source that we're limited to 250k per day?
We've been using more than that, barring figures reported on a Monday and Tuesday, for months now.
Don't forget we're now starting to use Moderna as well as Pfizer. But currently Pfizer and Moderna need to be used for first doses as well as second. Once first jabs are finished, they can 100% go to second, barring any late first jab stragglers.
Paul Mainwood, same as everyone else given government secrecy. If we had more than that sort of delivery rate we should have been using it for the last 2 months and it's clearly in the actuals we haven't.
In 2 weeks time 1 of our 2 main vaccines effectively runs out of plausible uses (unless guidance changes) so it is screamingly obvious that the vaccine programme will significantly slow down unless they procure extra doses from elsewhere. And if they could do that they should have done it months ago.
But if in 2 weeks time all over 18s have already been offered a vaccine, then it won't matter if it slows down. The rollout will be effectively over and it slowing down will be timed to perfection as we only need to do the lagged second jabs now.
Fine, we're violently agreeing - but they won't have finished 2nd doses for adults until 14 weeks from now, and unless cases collapse (far from impossible) there will be people with influence trying to tie the final unlocking to that date.
If you tie unlocking specifically to the need to 18 year old to be double vaccinated, then you create a massive problem with respect to boosters. If you decide they are necessary for the old and vulnerable...
I agree with much of this head piece ( like @CarlottaVance I have some reservations about the second point) but what should the governments be doing in the current circumstances?
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Instead we are doing the opposite. In Scotland this has reached insane levels: I have no evidence that I have been vaccinated. I can write for a letter but only if I am travelling abroad in the next 14 days.
Didn't you register with the username on your appointment letter? I did so and have been able to access an online version of my vaccination status for several weeks.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Waiting until 18 year olds have had their 2nd jabs would be insanity.
Though 2nd jabs should accelerate once we don't need to do 1st anymore and it only needs a 3-4 week gap for the final load of people.
The 2nd jabs won't accelerate. If we're limited to c. 250k doses a day that's a limit. The days of 400k 2nd doses are gone now we've basically written off Az for future use.
Where's your source that we're limited to 250k per day?
We've been using more than that, barring figures reported on a Monday and Tuesday, for months now.
Don't forget we're now starting to use Moderna as well as Pfizer. But currently Pfizer and Moderna need to be used for first doses as well as second. Once first jabs are finished, they can 100% go to second, barring any late first jab stragglers.
Paul Mainwood, same as everyone else given government secrecy. If we had more than that sort of delivery rate we should have been using it for the last 2 months and it's clearly in the actuals we haven't.
In 2 weeks time 1 of our 2 main vaccines effectively runs out of plausible uses (unless guidance changes) so it is screamingly obvious that the vaccine programme will significantly slow down unless they procure extra doses from elsewhere. And if they could do that they should have done it months ago.
But if in 2 weeks time all over 18s have already been offered a vaccine, then it won't matter if it slows down. The rollout will be effectively over and it slowing down will be timed to perfection as we only need to do the lagged second jabs now.
Fine, we're violently agreeing - but they won't have finished 2nd doses for adults until 14 weeks from now, and unless cases collapse (far from impossible) there will be people with influence trying to tie the final unlocking to that date.
I don't think you realise once we're through the backlog of 2nd jabs (which are AZ-dominated) and through the remaining first jabs just how few second jabs will be needed to keep the 8 week timelag.
We haven't done more than 150k to 200k daily first jabs in months. Which means that once the first jabs are finished, even if we slow down to 250k daily second jabs we will actually be accelerating through and doing more than a day's worth of second jabs every day.
2nd doses slowing down now, and 1st doses completely throttled by the Az decision.
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
How many first doses are there left to do?
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
if we only have 250k non Az supply a week and we're waiting for 2nd doses, then we're a few months away from being done at that rate.
I don't know where this 250k supply a week idea came from. That's less than what we did in first doses on Saturday alone!
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
Typo sorry, daily figures clearly, otherwise point stands.
If we need to do about 3.5 million first doses to reach the point all over 18s have been offered the vaccine (since that takes us to where Wales is now and they say they've done that) then at 250k per day it would take a fortnight, not months.
And then 3 months for them to all be 2nd jabbed given that is where the goal posts have now been moved.
Waiting until 18 year olds have had their 2nd jabs would be insanity.
Though 2nd jabs should accelerate once we don't need to do 1st anymore and it only needs a 3-4 week gap for the final load of people.
The 2nd jabs won't accelerate. If we're limited to c. 250k doses a day that's a limit. The days of 400k 2nd doses are gone now we've basically written off Az for future use.
Where's your source that we're limited to 250k per day?
We've been using more than that, barring figures reported on a Monday and Tuesday, for months now.
Don't forget we're now starting to use Moderna as well as Pfizer. But currently Pfizer and Moderna need to be used for first doses as well as second. Once first jabs are finished, they can 100% go to second, barring any late first jab stragglers.
Paul Mainwood, same as everyone else given government secrecy. If we had more than that sort of delivery rate we should have been using it for the last 2 months and it's clearly in the actuals we haven't.
In 2 weeks time 1 of our 2 main vaccines effectively runs out of plausible uses (unless guidance changes) so it is screamingly obvious that the vaccine programme will significantly slow down unless they procure extra doses from elsewhere. And if they could do that they should have done it months ago.
But if in 2 weeks time all over 18s have already been offered a vaccine, then it won't matter if it slows down. The rollout will be effectively over and it slowing down will be timed to perfection as we only need to do the lagged second jabs now.
Fine, we're violently agreeing - but they won't have finished 2nd doses for adults until 14 weeks from now, and unless cases collapse (far from impossible) there will be people with influence trying to tie the final unlocking to that date.
That people don't understand this is very perplexing, especially on here where, with the exception of one or two people, folk are quite sharp.
If they are going to say we need to vaccinate then there is no reason for them not to want to vaccinate people.
On current hospitalisation/death rates we should be open. But we're not and we're not going to be.
Comments
But no worries, we'll just keep lockdown going, no rush lads eh.
There has been a gradual easing of mental pressure. But no release. Serious lack of mental health professionals on SAGE.
Or anywhere near the levers of decision making tbh.
*Perception, is, of course, indistinguishable from reality.
Considering its down to 25+ being vaccinated, and all over 18s in Wales have been offered the vaccine already, can't be that long until all over 18s are offered the vaccine in England too.
If all over 18s can be offered the vaccine within say a fortnight, then there's no point offering AZ given Pfizer is better for a first dose and works faster. If its going to take 2 months to offer all over 18s the vaccine that's a different matter.
16-29: 15%
30-34: 23%
35-39: 27%
40-44: 37%
45-49: 45%
50-54: 79%
55-59: 88%
60-64: 94%
65-69: 92%
70-74: 96%
75-79: 100%
80+: 93%
Whole adult population: 57.4%
Age Band First Second
Under 30 21.64% 11.96%
30-34 47.06% 16.91%
35-39 60.23% 20.20%
40-44 71.50% 26.61%
45-49 78.66% 36.04%
50-54 84.73% 62.87%
55-59 87.60% 69.82%
60-64 89.80% 81.57%
65-69 91.93% 88.28%
70-74 94.25% 92.21%
75-79 95.26% 93.38%
80 plus 95.00% 92.26%
You may think your vaccines have bought you safety, but they certainly have not bought you freedom.
We're already up to 78.9% of adults getting their first dose. 87.7% in Wales who say everyone has now been offered a vaccine.
So if there's only about 8% of population left to do in England to get to that point where everyone has been offered a vaccine, then how long is that going to take at current rates?
I'm guessing on current trends we'd reach that point where everyone will have been offered the vaccine within about 3 weeks.
As it may well be a month from now.
'people have not come forward in enough numbers for 'safety....' we need another month.....''
Oh wait! it is autumn!
As at yesterday, I make it just over 5.5 million first doses for 90% takeup (which would be disappointing), 8.2 million for 95% takeup (which is a feasible target, I reckon), and 10.8 million for 100% takeup (I wish).
That's UK-wide, for all adults, for first doses.
Under 30 8,549,555 9,606,257
30-34 2,493,506 3,913,317
35-39 1,783,124 3,578,318
40-44 1,170,539 3,014,406
45-49 850,624 2,549,928
50-54 644,208 1,566,081
55-59 505,102 1,228,877
60-64 351,720 635,480
65-69 233,286 338,793
70-74 165,329 224,171
75-79 98,771 138,004
80+ 141,207 218,419
So if we vaccinated those, we would get 100% coverage
Not only does he support Scotland's football and rugby teams but he willingly chooses to support the English & Welsh cricket team
https://order-order.com/2021/06/14/keir-starmer-argues-that-checks-in-northern-ireland-are-not-the-way-forward/
“Having checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland is not the way forward. Having any checks between the Republic and Northern Ireland is absolutely not the way forward so we’re going to have to make progress. There’s probably going to gave to be flexibility on both sides as ever.”
BBC News is funded by the license but that too would run at a loss.
I suspect once Comcast's agreement to keep Sky News running expires at the end of this decade there will be no Sky News.
The rules say that Scotland must need a 3-0 win in their last group game to qualify and after a brave fight they must fall just short. Winning this game is against the rules.
Age band First Second
Under 30 6,476,491 7,533,193
30-34 2,022,532 3,442,343
35-39 1,334,734 3,129,928
40-44 759,794 2,603,661
45-49 451,955 2,151,259
50-54 222,458 1,144,331
55-59 97,913 821,688
60-64 6,880 290,640
65-69 0 49,697
70-74 0 0
75-79 0 0
80+ 0 0
Certainly unless there's something going on behind the scenes the Daily Climate Show and other stuff Comcast now has Sky News doing seem to be done more to gain Twitter credibility than to get revenues in.
To see how many people carry on the X hundred yards extra and how many people it breaks. Which is a larger number than you might have thought.
That is how the govt is fucking with the mental health of this country atm.
Just look up the sporting rights they've given up.
With more and more content going exclusively to streamers then Sky are going to struggle this decade.
We did over 1.2 million first doses last week. Not counting non-AZ second doses.
12th June- 12 deaths,
13th June -2 deaths
14th June- 2 deaths
Though 2nd jabs should accelerate once we don't need to do 1st anymore and it only needs a 3-4 week gap for the final load of people.
Comeon Scotland
There were several others (including a 2-2 with the Soviets in '82 which included an Alan Hansen blooper), but the Holland game in '78 was the all time classic.
Then get under 18s their first doses before schools return in September.
How did that not go in!
The polls say huge numbers are comfortable where we are. Huge numbers. Opinium today more than 50% in favour of a delay.
In the tory voting older brackets its much greater.
W
We've been using more than that, barring figures reported on a Monday and Tuesday, for months now.
Don't forget we're now starting to use Moderna as well as Pfizer. But currently Pfizer and Moderna need to be used for first doses as well as second. Once first jabs are finished, they can 100% go to second, barring any late first jab stragglers.
Provided Boris announces something on weddings he can probably get away with keeping things otherwise as they are for now
Incredible goal!
Sorry Scotland, but that was an amazing goal!
Plenty of Astra 2nds left to accelerate
In 2 weeks time 1 of our 2 main vaccines effectively runs out of plausible uses (unless guidance changes) so it is screamingly obvious that the vaccine programme will significantly slow down unless they procure extra doses from elsewhere. And if they could do that they should have done it months ago.
Plus ironically at the point we'll be ready to start vaccinating children, the schools will have broken up for the summer holidays so spread in kids will be dropping off not accelerating.
Getting as many jabs into arms of kids before they go back in September would not be a bad idea at all, but the risk to hospitalisations really will be over already.
And then a couple of seconds later it went in!!
Crazy crazy goal.
Running at capacity for both.
Early contender for goal of the tournament.
Will never happen.
We haven't done more than 150k to 200k daily first jabs in months. Which means that once the first jabs are finished, even if we slow down to 250k daily second jabs we will actually be accelerating through and doing more than a day's worth of second jabs every day.
If they are going to say we need to vaccinate then there is no reason for them not to want to vaccinate people.
On current hospitalisation/death rates we should be open. But we're not and we're not going to be.