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Something to watch over the next few weeks? – politicalbetting.com

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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,410

    its quite obvious from the press today that there are powerful forces in this country that want to make the half life we have traded for 'safety' permanent in this country.

    One minister let the cat out of the bag by calling the one month delay what it is for many who want it. That is, a ruse to nurse us towards the autumn when all further unlocking will be impossible. Indeed, pressure to impose new lockdown measures will increase exponentially as respiratory disease increases.


    Listen to labour and the scientists today and we would never, ever get out of this. Even with the tories it is looking doubtful now.

    I have had dogs' abuse for a year for suggesting this might be where we would end up, I guess all there will be now is an embarrassed silence.

    I am pretty resigned now to Step 4 not happening this year. By the time we get to mid to late July the modellers will be looking at the autumn wave and so on. It will all about protecting the NHS thru winter. Already you can see the beginnings of it in today's papers: just read a piece about how massively swamped A&E is (and it's June!!!).

    The years of under funding of the health service are coming home to roost.

    I can live without Step 4 on a purely personal basis. The pub is open but social distanced. But the economics are terrible. Of course the local pubs wont survive another year of this without further injections of cash and is Sunak ready to do that? How much money can the BoE print?

    Johnson is on a vaccine roll. Starmer is on the floor.

    Me thinks it will look very very different in say November this year. Goodbye vaccine bounce.

    IF you think that even staying where we are is cast in stone, you really can think again.

    The pressure to reinstate new lockdown measures in the autumn will be intense as cases inevitably soar.

    We will have the same round of scientist, media, scientist media doom porn campaign. And another government cave in.
    Likely, but not a definite I think at the moment. I am trying to be optimistic that we will be allowed to get thru coming winter with masks and social distancing but not shut all non-essential retail and pubs/cafes etc. Don't forget Johnson needs to take his party with him and there is plenty of discontent on the backbench over all this.
    Good morning

    I have just listened to Professor Hunter on Sky, who actually said that a short pause is justified but that the vaccine rollout makes it counter productive to keep the country locked down beyond

    He largely agreed with HMG strategy and, to be honest, it was so refreshing and so different from Independent Sage who frankly need to be put in a box and sealed away
    If the Government listens to middle-way, pragmatic types then we might just see an end to this. I see no reason to stall but if I thought that this was strictly time-limited then I'd be a lot less annoyed and a lot less worried about it.

    You will, however, appreciate why so many of us suspect that the Zero Covidiots have taken over the asylum.

    We appreciate that cases will be worse in a few weeks' time, and that the catastrophists amongst the scientific advisers will (ignoring whatever data comes out of the hospitals) scream for restrictions to continue and likely to be tightened. The list of additional excuses that they could trot out to justify this is very lengthy and has already been expounded in detail in previous threads.

    And, sat at the centre of this, we have a Prime Minister who is weak, incompetent, and a Plague survivor himself. The prospect of endless delay and endless appeals to caution should not be dismissed out of hand.
    I think that is fair comment but to be honest Boris is the best hope of freeing the country, as most everyone else seems to be a zero covid devotee and that includes Sturgeon and Drakeford here in Wales
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    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited June 2021
    malcolmg said:

    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    I went for my second vaccine yesterday. I had rearranged it on the internet because I could not make the original appointment. As had a serious chunk of Dundee, apparently. There were more than 150 people queuing outside the Caird Hall where the vaccines were being administered. It took just over an hour to get to the door and another 30 minutes to have the jab inside. Some of the staff were muttering about something going wrong with the booking system, again. I did see one or two people just leave but the vast majority stood in line patiently. Much more mixed crowd this time, a lot of young people plus some old fogies like me back for the second jab.

    I had a pretty rough night, hot and sore and feel somewhat less than 80% this morning but I am glad and relieved to have this done. A couple of weeks now and I will be safe. No certificates issued yesterday. Apparently an online app is "being thought about". Difficult to see how we get freedom for the vaccinated when we cannot establish who they are.

    What on earth is the Scottish Government playing at? Does it really just come down to a refusal to just buy into the UK system? Are there irreconcilable compatability issues? Or what? I guess right now double vaccinated Scots don't currently have the ability to travel to France (or other countries requiring proof of vaccine on entry), even if they wanted to?
    I believe you are talking jingoistic mince, perhaps check facts or keep your trap shut when you have no clue what you are talking about.

    Get a record of your coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination status


    Your vaccination status is a record of the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations you have received.

    Your status includes your name, date of birth, and any coronavirus vaccinations you have received in Scotland.
    https://www.nhsinform.scot/covid-19-vaccine/after-your-vaccine/get-a-record-of-your-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-status
    Happy to be corrected malc! I think it well proven as an established fact that there's no quicker way to find out the facts about what is going on in Scotland than to post an statement/question based on ignorance and critical rhetoric on this forum ;)

    Although the NHS app is good...
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,904
    Nunu3 said:

    I've said it a million and I'll say it again, Labour will never again form a majority government.

    They simply do not have a broad enough base, and the Tories have moderated so much on economics that there is no point of Labour. People will say "oh but we've heard that about political parties before" but this time really is different.

    Its not the leader, its not the policies its not the messaging. It is simply there is no need and no way they can come back. There is no mass scale unionisation, no way back in Scotland and the red wall ain't coming back as they won't go right wing enough on cultural and social issues.

    What replaces them is yet to be seen, but they will NEVER EVER AGAIN win a majority or even close to it. 2019 was a watershed, more than we thought.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1404013492005490693

    I agree the 40% in 2017 will never be beaten

    Burnham maybe 35%
    SKS no more than 30%
    Cooper 25%
    RLB 25%
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,145

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:
    Its bollox and we know its bollox from the data from Bolton, Blackburn, Bedfordshire and Kirklees.
    Blackburn cases are still rising.
    On complete data (i.e. The 7th) Kirklees has just had it's highest ever single day cases since February.
    Blackburn's cases have reached their peak and will now start falling, how far and how fast we don't know yet.

    Kirklees is bouncing around (at a level far below what Bolton and Blackburn reached) as cases rise and fall in different parts of the borough.

    But that's cases - the issue is hospitalisations and they're clearly not going to reach anywhere near the levels they reached in the winter in Bolton, Blackburn, Bedfordshire or Kirklees.

    Which shows that any prediction of the country having higher hospitalisations than during the winter is bollox.
    You can see the same effect in Scotland where cases have risen much faster than in England.

    Number currently in hospital is 132 compared to a January peak of over 2,000.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,234
    Having heard and read yet more culture war guff in the last few days, can’t help agreeing even more wi try @GaryLineker on this.
    The booing says more about the booers
    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1402994109283934209

    And the government’s culture warmongering would almost be less objectionable were it not so transparently cynical and inauthentic.
    The anti-woke playbook says oppose taking the knee but the polling shows salt-of-the-earth-red-wall-association-football-fans like the England squad

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404021277279633408
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    PhilPhil Posts: 1,943

    Phil said:

    its quite obvious from the press today that there are powerful forces in this country that want to make the half life we have traded for 'safety' permanent in this country.

    One minister let the cat out of the bag by calling the one month delay what it is for many who want it. That is, a ruse to nurse us towards the autumn when all further unlocking will be impossible. Indeed, pressure to impose new lockdown measures will increase exponentially as respiratory disease increases.


    Listen to labour and the scientists today and we would never, ever get out of this. Even with the tories it is looking doubtful now.

    I have had dogs' abuse for a year for suggesting this might be where we would end up, I guess all there will be now is an embarrassed silence.

    I wish you’d actually engage with the facts on the ground instead of this fantasy world you seem to inhabit where nefarious characters are scheming to steal your bodily fluids / control your every move / corrupt your children / whatever it is this time.

    Either lockdown is justified or it isn’t. The justifications for the previous lockdowns was the imminent overwhelming of NHS capacity & the high loss of life that would inevitably follow. If we are in the same position now, then another lockdown is justified on the same grounds. If not, then not.

    How many people are you willing to kill contrarian? So far we’ve killed what, 150k? Is a further 30k acceptable to you? Where’s the limit? Every one of those deaths has at least another individual who has suffered life changing organ damage thanks to internal clotting as well. This isn’t just about the deaths - the cost to the country is huge.

    Once again, we are in the gap between vaccination covering enough of the population for herd immunity to be real & coronavirus spreading through the community exponentially. Once again, this is because the government didn’t take the (obvious) risk seriously enough to take lesser action earlier & is now forced to take stronger action later. They keep on refusing to take the small actions early because of people like you. It’s painful to see this endless denial of reality played out over and over again at the cost of 10s of thousands of lives, but apparently that’s where we are.
    The reality, is Texas. The reality is Florida. The reality is the EU, where they are opening up with much lower rates of vaccination. The reality is the huge debt we are piling up and the money we are printing.

    The reality is the rest of the world is starting to move beyond this virus whilst we aren;'t

    It's you who are living in the land of delusion.
    Once again, you refuse to actually engage with reality.

    Texas (according to their stats) don’t have any Delta cases. If their coronavirus rates are staying low as a consequence, then of course they can open up safely. If the rates of Delta infection are low enough that even with it’s rate of growth you can still reach high enough vaccination levels to before it becomes a problem then that would be fine too.

    We, on the other hand, seem to have a rate of increase in Delta cases that will swamp the NHS before we can vaccinate widely enough. We didn’t have to be here - we could have closed the borders - but now we are here & that’s why people are suggesting that a further lockdown is probably inevitable.

    This is why you can’t hand wave at other countries and say: they’re doing it, why can’t we? Because their R rates & balance of infections & vaccination rates are different.

    I note in passing that you’re not saying “why aren’t we like New Zealand?”, because that would undercut your narrative.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited June 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    Having heard and read yet more culture war guff in the last few days, can’t help agreeing even more wi try @GaryLineker on this.
    The booing says more about the booers
    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1402994109283934209

    And the government’s culture warmongering would almost be less objectionable were it not so transparently cynical and inauthentic.
    The anti-woke playbook says oppose taking the knee but the polling shows salt-of-the-earth-red-wall-association-football-fans like the England squad

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404021277279633408

    You don't half post some guff.

    Polling shows a majority don't support taking the knee. Boris statement the other day was about as middling as middling could be, suppprt right to do so, without saying he supported it. That's a perfectly valid position and actually the polling shows one shared by a significant percentage of the nation.
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    Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 178

    Taz said:

    FPT:

    Andy_JS said:

    "The London-based commentariat has convinced itself that Geordie Tory is a left-behind loser who voted for a Brexit and Boris spit-roast to express his rage at globalisation. This is only a small part of the story. For the hidden truth about Geordie Tory is that he is actually doing rather well for himself. He did not go to university (thus avoiding a pile of student debt), but quickly found a job at a local firm, and his money goes much further in the north than it would in the south. He lives in a four-bedroomed semi-detached, has a couple of cars in the drive and can rely on two sets of grandparents to chip in with child care. He zips to work or Asda in a few minutes, thinks the local school is doing an acceptable job and looks forward to his next holiday in Florida, providing the government can stop faffing about. He pities his school friends who went to university, moved down south and now either live in a crowded flat or (before the covid-19 pandemic) spent a couple of hours a day on a packed train."

    https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/06/12/a-new-version-of-essex-man-is-born-in-the-north

    Its noticeable that whenever you see a program about Conservative gains anywhere between Bolsover and Blyth its filled with 'grim up north' imagery.

    Where they should be filmed is a new housing development or a supermarket car park.
    It was the same with Hartlepool. People think of these places just as grim, poor, places with terrible housing and lots of people on benefits when the reality is there are lots of nice parts in these seats, lots of nice housing estates with high levels of ownership. To be honest you look at them and think how were they still so solidly labour until now
    "Our family's always been Labour, they're the party of the working class."

    I'm sure there is an equivalent Conservative mentality in parts of the South.
    "Our familys always been Tory, they're the party of the landed gentry".

    Hmmm.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953

    Stocky said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    mwadams said:

    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    I went for my second vaccine yesterday. I had rearranged it on the internet because I could not make the original appointment. As had a serious chunk of Dundee, apparently. There were more than 150 people queuing outside the Caird Hall where the vaccines were being administered. It took just over an hour to get to the door and another 30 minutes to have the jab inside. Some of the staff were muttering about something going wrong with the booking system, again. I did see one or two people just leave but the vast majority stood in line patiently. Much more mixed crowd this time, a lot of young people plus some old fogies like me back for the second jab.

    I had a pretty rough night, hot and sore and feel somewhat less than 80% this morning but I am glad and relieved to have this done. A couple of weeks now and I will be safe. No certificates issued yesterday. Apparently an online app is "being thought about". Difficult to see how we get freedom for the vaccinated when we cannot establish who they are.

    What on earth is the Scottish Government playing at? Does it really just come down to a refusal to just buy into the UK system? Are there irreconcilable compatability issues? Or what? I guess right now double vaccinated Scots don't currently have the ability to travel to France (or other countries requiring proof of vaccine on entry), even if they wanted to?
    I am now double vaccinated. I have no evidence of that I can produce of that fact. Its almost as if Nicola is keen to justify keeping her petty controls of our social lives by not letting the system work. What do you get in England?
    The record can be seen in the NHS app (but not the Covid one, oddly). And you also get a meaningless bit of cardboard with it written on in biro.
    So the NHS App is different from the NHS Trace and Trace App?

    If you have the NHS App, showing vaccination history, does it show any other health history and is it linked in any way to the NHS Track and Trace App?

    It shows your entire NHS records, lets you order prescriptions, etc. Not linked to covid app.
    Could it sneakily be linked to the other App, either in the background now or in the future?
    No. The whole point of the other app is that it must be anonymous and Apple/Google won't allow short circuits to get around that.
    Not in Western countries, anyway.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:
    Its bollox and we know its bollox from the data from Bolton, Blackburn, Bedfordshire and Kirklees.
    Blackburn cases are still rising.
    On complete data (i.e. The 7th) Kirklees has just had it's highest ever single day cases since February.
    Blackburn's cases have reached their peak and will now start falling, how far and how fast we don't know yet.

    Kirklees is bouncing around (at a level far below what Bolton and Blackburn reached) as cases rise and fall in different parts of the borough.

    But that's cases - the issue is hospitalisations and they're clearly not going to reach anywhere near the levels they reached in the winter in Bolton, Blackburn, Bedfordshire or Kirklees.

    Which shows that any prediction of the country having higher hospitalisations than during the winter is bollox.
    You can see the same effect in Scotland where cases have risen much faster than in England.

    Number currently in hospital is 132 compared to a January peak of over 2,000.
    There's an interesting effect happening with Scottish case numbers. The ONS infection survey (as of 4th June) has Scotland and England on comparable infection numbers (1 in 640 and 1 in 680) but the PCR test figures have scotland at about double the rate of england.

    This is a reverse from autumnmwinter when the PCR number had scotland about half of England but the infection survey had england scotland levelish pegging for most of the time.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Why on earth would support for Scottish independence rise if England won the Euros? If anything that would lead to a rise in English nationalism. Support for Scottish independence would likely be highest if Scotland did very well.

    However for some Unionists the question is whether there should be 4 separate Home Nations teams in international football tournaments at all. For Effie Deans for example 'there would be no SNP today if the first “international” match between England and Scotland in 1872 had never taken place.'

    As Deans argues Scotland is not an independent state and should not have its own team therefore. 'The criterion for members of Fifa is being a sovereign state with wide diplomatic recognition. In 2016 Fifa defined a country as "an independent state recognized by the international community". But Scotland is not an independent state, precisely because we rejected the chance to become one in 2014. Having explicitly done so it would have been logical for the Scottish Football Association to have disbanded just as the West German one did.'

    She concludes we should therefore unite the 4 teams into 1 UK team much as East and West Germany united into 1 German team after unification and even argues the EU could follow suit. 'Just as the British Government has finally seen the sense of ceasing to refer to the United Kingdom as four nations, because this only helps the separatists, so it should do what Germany did in 1990. It should unite our football teams. If the EU is serious about unification, it should do the same.'

    https://www.effiedeans.com/2021/06/this-is-not-international-football.html

    Absolute crap.

    Another daft theorist who has no interest in sport.

    Football, rugby union, cricket, golf, netball, rugby league, hockey — pretty much every major team sport — are organised on a home nations basis, which is key element of rivalry in the sporting arena.
    Effiedeans is an absolute fruitcake. Like, Murdo Fraser has stepped in and called them out on their fruit cakery.

    Voting for George Galloway levels of nuts.
    I love the way she prefaces the whole piece by telling us that she has zero interest in sport and won’t be watching the tournament. She also seems to imply that the EU should field a single team.

    In short, crackers. I’m amazed that @hyufd cited her to be honest!
    It's all part of the rage against the dying of the light.

    To most people on both sides of the border, the Union is worthless and they either want it bringing down or don't care one way or the other.

    Personally I think it's a shame because we still have a lot in common and the idea of a single Government encompassing the whole of Great Britain still has merit but, as @TSE has recently described it, the relationship between Scotland and England is now that of parasite and host. If the Treasury didn't bribe the Scots (and Scotland is wealthier than most of the English regions) with vastly inflated levels of public spending per capita, which pays for their free prescriptions, free elderly care and free tuition fees at no cost to themselves, then support for the Union there would collapse.

    From the English perspective, there are almost no good arguments for Union left. It pretty much comes down to vague wibble about a diminution of national greatness, and seat wetting about the UN Security Council that 99.75% of the population couldn't give a gnats todger about. And it would solve so many problems. For, if Scotland goes, so does Northern Ireland. A clearout of the malcontents, with all of the most critical post-Brexit problems bedevilling the relationship with the EU automatically resolved into the bargain. I mean, what's not to like?
    No, to English Nationalists like you the Union is worthless and you are as bad as Scottish Nationalists.

    I myself always have been and remain a diehard Unionist.

    It would also certainly reduce our role and influence in the world, putting us clearly behind France, economically and militarily for example, a disaster for what is supposed to be a strong global Britain post Brexit. Post Brexit it would also lead to a hard border between England and Scotland now if Scotland rejoined the EU, hitting us both economically.

    It would also not solve Northern Ireland either as loyalist areas like Antrim will never accept rule from Dublin either and rightly so, they are loyal to the UK and must remain so.

    As Canada has showed with Quebec it is perfectly possible to keep a region with a strong identity in a Federal Union even if it ultimately requires devomax
    Yes, right, trot out the English Nationalist trope why don't you? I'm just some ordinary bloke with nothing directly to do with politics, I'm not responsible for the mess that has been created.

    Scotland is not Quebec, the same solutions that work for Canada won't necessarily work here. Besides anything else, (a) Canada is a properly constituted federation in which all the provinces are accorded roughly equal status (and not the clapped out dogs breakfast with which we have to put up, courtesy of New Labour and all of the Tory Prime Ministers that have followed and failed to do anything useful about it,) and (b) resources in Canada are distributed fairly and not according to an arbitrary mechanism from the 1970s, that was itself only slightly tweaked from the original system of bribery that was designed to try to stop Ireland from leaving when The Marquess of Salisbury governed the British Empire from the House of Lords.

    Almost nobody in this country cares about being a bit smaller than France, though for what it's worth we're smaller than France already. Your argument reminds me of that episode of Yes Prime Minister where Sir Humphrey explains that the nuclear deterrent is there to protect us from the French. It's literally laughable.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,234

    Polling shows a majority don't support taking the knee.

    Which wasn't point.

    Explicitly criticising it means explicitly criticising the England squad

    Support is of course the damned ratio...

    1/ First of all the headlines. Almost an inverse relationship between support for the knee and support for fans booing the knee.

    - 48% of fans support England players taking the knee at the Euros. 27% oppose.

    - 30% of fans support others booing the knee. 51% oppose. https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1403808606441639945/photo/1
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,234
    Similarly, this from @ShippersUnbound: this stuff isn’t based on the sincerely held views of the prime minister. It’s fake divisiveness driven by unelected aides dressing their own prejudice up as the pursuit of a couple of extra points in the polls

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8f85878e-cad1-11eb-b575-81b2a16c3be4?shareToken=e53e3db8e549df6193629d935fde4b82 https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404022421871550470/photo/1
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,591
    Scott_xP said:

    Having heard and read yet more culture war guff in the last few days, can’t help agreeing even more wi try @GaryLineker on this.
    The booing says more about the booers
    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1402994109283934209

    And the government’s culture warmongering would almost be less objectionable were it not so transparently cynical and inauthentic.
    The anti-woke playbook says oppose taking the knee but the polling shows salt-of-the-earth-red-wall-association-football-fans like the England squad

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404021277279633408

    I actually want England to lose, because of this. A bunch of virtue-signalling millionaires deliberately antagonising their supporters, by perpetuating an absurd ritual which is now an emblem of cultural Marxism, and which was originally aimed at police tactics in the a far off land

    What the actual F has that got to do with English football?

    Also, Southgate is a twat
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,863

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 45% (+4)
    LAB: 32% (-1)
    LDEM: 8% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)
    REFUK: 2% (-1)

    via
    @KantarPublic
    , 03 - 07 Jun
    Chgs. w/ Apr

    SKS fans please explain
    Your continuing noble quest to identify SKS fans on here is likely to end in frustration, I think.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    There was always going to be a third wave. See Andrew Lilico's models. Question is can we accept it and the level of hospitalisation?
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    gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Nunu3 said:

    Taz said:

    FPT:

    Andy_JS said:

    "The London-based commentariat has convinced itself that Geordie Tory is a left-behind loser who voted for a Brexit and Boris spit-roast to express his rage at globalisation. This is only a small part of the story. For the hidden truth about Geordie Tory is that he is actually doing rather well for himself. He did not go to university (thus avoiding a pile of student debt), but quickly found a job at a local firm, and his money goes much further in the north than it would in the south. He lives in a four-bedroomed semi-detached, has a couple of cars in the drive and can rely on two sets of grandparents to chip in with child care. He zips to work or Asda in a few minutes, thinks the local school is doing an acceptable job and looks forward to his next holiday in Florida, providing the government can stop faffing about. He pities his school friends who went to university, moved down south and now either live in a crowded flat or (before the covid-19 pandemic) spent a couple of hours a day on a packed train."

    https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/06/12/a-new-version-of-essex-man-is-born-in-the-north

    Its noticeable that whenever you see a program about Conservative gains anywhere between Bolsover and Blyth its filled with 'grim up north' imagery.

    Where they should be filmed is a new housing development or a supermarket car park.
    It was the same with Hartlepool. People think of these places just as grim, poor, places with terrible housing and lots of people on benefits when the reality is there are lots of nice parts in these seats, lots of nice housing estates with high levels of ownership. To be honest you look at them and think how were they still so solidly labour until now
    "Our family's always been Labour, they're the party of the working class."

    I'm sure there is an equivalent Conservative mentality in parts of the South.
    "Our familys always been Tory, they're the party of the landed gentry".

    Hmmm.
    Alf Garnett, working class Tory through and through, was oft to say, the Tory Party are the party of government because they are proper rich people.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953

    HYUFD said:

    Why on earth would support for Scottish independence rise if England won the Euros? If anything that would lead to a rise in English nationalism. Support for Scottish independence would likely be highest if Scotland did very well.

    However for some Unionists the question is whether there should be 4 separate Home Nations teams in international football tournaments at all. For Effie Deans for example 'there would be no SNP today if the first “international” match between England and Scotland in 1872 had never taken place.'

    As Deans argues Scotland is not an independent state and should not have its own team therefore. 'The criterion for members of Fifa is being a sovereign state with wide diplomatic recognition. In 2016 Fifa defined a country as "an independent state recognized by the international community". But Scotland is not an independent state, precisely because we rejected the chance to become one in 2014. Having explicitly done so it would have been logical for the Scottish Football Association to have disbanded just as the West German one did.'

    She concludes we should therefore unite the 4 teams into 1 UK team much as East and West Germany united into 1 German team after unification and even argues the EU could follow suit. 'Just as the British Government has finally seen the sense of ceasing to refer to the United Kingdom as four nations, because this only helps the separatists, so it should do what Germany did in 1990. It should unite our football teams. If the EU is serious about unification, it should do the same.'

    https://www.effiedeans.com/2021/06/this-is-not-international-football.html

    I think you misunderestimate just how badly some England fans annoy the Scots.

    This gets worse with the further England go in international tournaments.
    Unless things have changed significantly in recent years, the shops in Glasgow will have ordered extra Croatia and Czech Republic shirts, and probably sold out of them by now. Maybe things might be different this year though, with Scotland in the same group.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,030


    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Macron is a total and utter arse, again.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/boris-johnson-infuriated-emmanuel-macron-suggested-northern/

    Yet another sign that the EU a see Northern Ireland purely as a political football to push around the UK, paying little regard to the history of the Province.

    As I’ve said before, the EU really need to let the UK sand RoI sort out the Province between them, the Union has no understanding of the place.

    The EU know nothing about NI, and care even less.

    They never had to suffer the horrific bombings, maimings or shootings.
    'The EU' includes the Rep. of Ireland which has a deep and longstanding involvement with the problems of unhappy Northern Ireland.

    However NI was doing very well when both the Republic and the UK, including NI were part of the EU, and many warned that leaving the EU would cause problems. Johnson, among other pooh-poohed that idea.

    Any problems therefor are down to Britains hard Brexit government to solve. Especially as it signed an agreement which, it was claimed, solved them.
    Sorry OKC that’s complete bollocks

    Regardless of whether the issues are “down to” Brexit both sides need to work to solve them.

    The GFA was established to achieve an objective (fudging the border) but was predicated on both RoI and the UK being in the EEA.

    That is no longer the case. So the rational thing to do is to find another way to achieve the same objective. It is clear the protocol is contributing to unionist disquiet and tension in the province. So we need to look at another solution.

    Part of the problem is the EU’s insistence on the sanctity of the single market. That implies there needs to be a hard border somewhere in the chain GB-NI-ROI-EU. None of the options are acceptable to all the parties. So people need to figure out a more creative solution - a process with which the EU Commission has refused to engage.
    There is a simple solution. UK standards are EU standards cos we wrote them. UK standards are going to increase. So we are aligned and will remain aligned. We can have free trade tomorrow but we won't because that would be for the UK and EU to state the fact that we are aligned.

    Johnson can't have that. So instead we will have trade sanctions due to the non-compliance of the UK which is compliant. Its so stupid, macho posturing instead of realpolitik. When the UK doesn't stick to its word and to agreements signed months ago there is little incentive for other parties to waste more time engaging with us when we will just trash that agreement as well.

    The UK are acting like twats. As the US were. Biden is telling the G7 "America is back" in that it is now behaving and is sorry. Until we stop twatting about and say sorry, we will have no friends and no allies on this one. It is on us to compromise from our current position not them. If the deal doesn't work then its status quo ante time.
    This is, of course, bullshit.

    The question is not whether we are currently aligned, nor whether we are intent on improving our standards. It is that the EU want us to align with whatever new standards they chose to adopt in the future. Of course we are aligned now. But that does not mean we should remain aligned with whatever bollocks the EU come s up with in a year or a decades' time.

    It is the EU and its apologists who are behaving like twats and making Johnson look reasonable. And given how much of a twat Johnson already is, that is some going.
    Realpolitik kicks "whatever bollocks the EU comes up with" down the road. It is not a problem for now. Nor do we have to stay aligned with EU standards - like any standards they are a minimum. We can improve our standards above theirs and still be compliant. As having better standards is government policy this shouldn't cause problems.

    People keep demanding the other side compromise whilst refusing to even do the "compromise" of recognising the status quo. And then wonder why the rest of the G7 think we are twats.
    Not true. Again you show an astounding level of naivity. The minimum standards only lasts until the first court case brought by an EU company that says UK standards are a barrier to trade. Of course this didn't apply in the EU because even if we had higher standards we could not prevent goods with lower standards entering the country from elsewhere in the EU. Now we can - and should.

    The status quo is dead. Thankfully. It died long before we left the EU and for the most part was a myth created by Cameron to try and persuade us we could have our cake and eat it. It shows a reckless ignorance of how the EU works and is certainly no basis for a stable future relationship.


  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    O/T

    The Mail are criticising the BBC for showing footage of Eriksen receiving CPR whilst in the same article there's a link to a Mail article showing Eriksen receiving CPR.

    Yes the BBC badly messed up. I flicked over for at least 15 minutes and they were still showing the cameras trying to zoom in on Eriksen. Feel bad for Jonathan Pearce, he was properly thrown under the bus and I bet he’s livid with his bosses.
    Sad that anti BBC types are exploiting Eriksen's health problems to push their partisan agenda.

    As TLG86 said to you last night you could have switched channels.

    Other channels across the world were also put in an awkward position like the BBC thanks to the host broadcaster in Denmark.
    Except Danish TV didn’t show it, or Ireland or Germany. Takes some mental gymnastics to defend the bbc on this, and I’m usually a big beeb fan
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,234
    Ben Wallace says Theresa May would make an "excellent" candidate for Nato general secretary.

    Backroom horse-trading over successor to Jens Stoltenberg, due to step down in 2022, is likely to feature strongly at Nato summit in Brussels tomorrow.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/12/theresa-may-would-excellent-candidate-lead-nato-defence-secretary/
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2021

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:
    Its bollox and we know its bollox from the data from Bolton, Blackburn, Bedfordshire and Kirklees.
    Blackburn cases are still rising.
    On complete data (i.e. The 7th) Kirklees has just had it's highest ever single day cases since February.
    Blackburn's cases have reached their peak and will now start falling, how far and how fast we don't know yet.

    Kirklees is bouncing around (at a level far below what Bolton and Blackburn reached) as cases rise and fall in different parts of the borough.

    But that's cases - the issue is hospitalisations and they're clearly not going to reach anywhere near the levels they reached in the winter in Bolton, Blackburn, Bedfordshire or Kirklees.

    Which shows that any prediction of the country having higher hospitalisations than during the winter is bollox.
    You can see the same effect in Scotland where cases have risen much faster than in England.

    Number currently in hospital is 132 compared to a January peak of over 2,000.
    You don't want to be comparing to the peak, you want to be comparing to similar point in the autumn wave.

    Latest "complete" 7-day average figure for Scotland is 4th of June:
    828 cases
    23.7 admissions (pain for the 70% of a person admitted)
    113 in hospital
    9.4 on ventilators
    0.7 deaths (28-days measure)

    The comparable case figure from wutumn is the 2nd of October
    799 cases
    49 admissions
    172.6 in hospital
    19.1 on ventialtors
    2.7 deaths (28-days measure)
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,030



    This is, of course, bullshit.

    The question is not whether we are currently aligned, nor whether we are intent on improving our standards. It is that the EU want us to align with whatever new standards they chose to adopt in the future. Of course we are aligned now. But that does not mean we should remain aligned with whatever bollocks the EU come s up with in a year or a decades' time.

    It is the EU and its apologists who are behaving like twats and making Johnson look reasonable. And given how much of a twat Johnson already is, that is some going.

    Well...my understanding is that there's an EU offer on the table to align for the present and review if we want to stop aligning at such future point, which sounds exactly the sort of fudge that ought to be acceptable. Refusing to align for now because we might want to unalign at some future date does seem to make an unnecessarily ideological point.

    The underlying issue is almost certainly GM. The EU bars it, the US is keen, Johnson isn't bothered. It will become an issue if there's a US trade deal.
    The EU position has always been one of dynamic alignment. It was that which led to the creation of the NI protocol because it is that which is quite rightly unacceptable. So no, you are not correct on this.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    Scott_xP said:

    Ben Wallace says Theresa May would make an "excellent" candidate for Nato general secretary.

    Backroom horse-trading over successor to Jens Stoltenberg, due to step down in 2022, is likely to feature strongly at Nato summit in Brussels tomorrow.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/12/theresa-may-would-excellent-candidate-lead-nato-defence-secretary/

    Oh that would be convenient. Get rid of a backbench critic? We know how much Johnson likes critics.
  • Options
    gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Nigelb said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 45% (+4)
    LAB: 32% (-1)
    LDEM: 8% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)
    REFUK: 2% (-1)

    via
    @KantarPublic
    , 03 - 07 Jun
    Chgs. w/ Apr

    SKS fans please explain
    Your continuing noble quest to identify SKS fans on here is likely to end in frustration, I think.
    There’s nowt much wrong with SKS. Pandemic is extraordinary times, and this is jab bounce in polls.

    Any Boris fans on here want to point out the substance behind Boris ratings and Tory poll leads, or admit it’s a house of straw
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416
    Scott_xP said:

    Ben Wallace says Theresa May would make an "excellent" candidate for Nato general secretary.

    Backroom horse-trading over successor to Jens Stoltenberg, due to step down in 2022, is likely to feature strongly at Nato summit in Brussels tomorrow.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/06/12/theresa-may-would-excellent-candidate-lead-nato-defence-secretary/

    Well, it would get her out of the Commons which would be a plus. There is the small matter of nuclear war, however.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Why on earth would support for Scottish independence rise if England won the Euros? If anything that would lead to a rise in English nationalism. Support for Scottish independence would likely be highest if Scotland did very well.

    However for some Unionists the question is whether there should be 4 separate Home Nations teams in international football tournaments at all. For Effie Deans for example 'there would be no SNP today if the first “international” match between England and Scotland in 1872 had never taken place.'

    As Deans argues Scotland is not an independent state and should not have its own team therefore. 'The criterion for members of Fifa is being a sovereign state with wide diplomatic recognition. In 2016 Fifa defined a country as "an independent state recognized by the international community". But Scotland is not an independent state, precisely because we rejected the chance to become one in 2014. Having explicitly done so it would have been logical for the Scottish Football Association to have disbanded just as the West German one did.'

    She concludes we should therefore unite the 4 teams into 1 UK team much as East and West Germany united into 1 German team after unification and even argues the EU could follow suit. 'Just as the British Government has finally seen the sense of ceasing to refer to the United Kingdom as four nations, because this only helps the separatists, so it should do what Germany did in 1990. It should unite our football teams. If the EU is serious about unification, it should do the same.'

    https://www.effiedeans.com/2021/06/this-is-not-international-football.html

    Absolute crap.

    Another daft theorist who has no interest in sport.

    Football, rugby union, cricket, golf, netball, rugby league, hockey — pretty much every major team sport — are organised on a home nations basis, which is key element of rivalry in the sporting arena.
    Effiedeans is an absolute fruitcake. Like, Murdo Fraser has stepped in and called them out on their fruit cakery.

    Voting for George Galloway levels of nuts.
    I love the way she prefaces the whole piece by telling us that she has zero interest in sport and won’t be watching the tournament. She also seems to imply that the EU should field a single team.

    In short, crackers. I’m amazed that @hyufd cited her to be honest!
    It's all part of the rage against the dying of the light.

    To most people on both sides of the border, the Union is worthless and they either want it bringing down or don't care one way or the other.

    Personally I think it's a shame because we still have a lot in common and the idea of a single Government encompassing the whole of Great Britain still has merit but, as @TSE has recently described it, the relationship between Scotland and England is now that of parasite and host. If the Treasury didn't bribe the Scots (and Scotland is wealthier than most of the English regions) with vastly inflated levels of public spending per capita, which pays for their free prescriptions, free elderly care and free tuition fees at no cost to themselves, then support for the Union there would collapse.

    From the English perspective, there are almost no good arguments for Union left. It pretty much comes down to vague wibble about a diminution of national greatness, and seat wetting about the UN Security Council that 99.75% of the population couldn't give a gnats todger about. And it would solve so many problems. For, if Scotland goes, so does Northern Ireland. A clearout of the malcontents, with all of the most critical post-Brexit problems bedevilling the relationship with the EU automatically resolved into the bargain. I mean, what's not to like?
    No, to English Nationalists like you the Union is worthless and you are as bad as Scottish Nationalists.

    I myself always have been and remain a diehard Unionist.

    It would also certainly reduce our role and influence in the world, putting us clearly behind France, economically and militarily for example, a disaster for what is supposed to be a strong global Britain post Brexit. Post Brexit it would also lead to a hard border between England and Scotland now if Scotland rejoined the EU, hitting us both economically.

    It would also not solve Northern Ireland either as loyalist areas like Antrim will never accept rule from Dublin either and rightly so, they are loyal to the UK and must remain so.

    As Canada has showed with Quebec it is perfectly possible to keep a region with a strong identity in a Federal Union even if it ultimately requires devomax
    Yes, right, trot out the English Nationalist trope why don't you? I'm just some ordinary bloke with nothing directly to do with politics, I'm not responsible for the mess that has been created.

    Scotland is not Quebec, the same solutions that work for Canada won't necessarily work here. Besides anything else, (a) Canada is a properly constituted federation in which all the provinces are accorded roughly equal status (and not the clapped out dogs breakfast with which we have to put up, courtesy of New Labour and all of the Tory Prime Ministers that have followed and failed to do anything useful about it,) and (b) resources in Canada are distributed fairly and not according to an arbitrary mechanism from the 1970s, that was itself only slightly tweaked from the original system of bribery that was designed to try to stop Ireland from leaving when The Marquess of Salisbury governed the British Empire from the House of Lords.

    Almost nobody in this country cares about being a bit smaller than France, though for what it's worth we're smaller than France already. Your argument reminds me of that episode of Yes Prime Minister where Sir Humphrey explains that the nuclear deterrent is there to protect us from the French. It's literally laughable.
    You are an English Nationalist.

    Quebec has a bigger population than Scotland and a bigger economy and joined Canada later than Scotland joined the UK. Most Quebecois also speak French while most Canadians speak English, most English and Scots speak English.

    The only thing I do agree with you on is we should have an English Parliament or at least regional assemblies to match the Parliaments of the other Home Nations and become a truly Federal UK.

    Not only would we have a smaller economy than France (when according to the IMF as the UK we are still bigger economically) but if the UK broke up we would also have a smaller population than Italy. Not only globally but in Europe our position would be weaker, when post Brexit we are supposed to be a strong global Britain to survive.

    Plus of course we would have a damaging hard border with Scotland too
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,591
    edited June 2021
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Polling shows a majority don't support taking the knee.

    Which wasn't point.

    Explicitly criticising it means explicitly criticising the England squad

    Support is of course the damned ratio...

    1/ First of all the headlines. Almost an inverse relationship between support for the knee and support for fans booing the knee.

    - 48% of fans support England players taking the knee at the Euros. 27% oppose.

    - 30% of fans support others booing the knee. 51% oppose. https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1403808606441639945/photo/1
    Belgium took the knee last night, Russia didn't. It's admittedly a small sample but it might be worth 3 goals.
    But those are pretty dire polls for the knee-benders. 30% of England fans support booing the England team

    A third of all their supporters want to boo.

    And they could have EASILY avoided all this with some huge knee bending orgy at the beginnng of the tournament, with all the players kneeling for 17 hours on live BBC on top of a giant wax mannikin carved into the image of Derek Chauvin. On top of the Acropolis. With spontaneous nasal songs by gospel choirs floating above in weird zeppelins marked BLM and carrying an outsize floodlit image of a crying slave child giving his last slice of rusk to a grateful Gary Lineker with a halo

    Why not just do that?

  • Options
    BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 45% (+4)
    LAB: 32% (-1)
    LDEM: 8% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)
    REFUK: 2% (-1)

    via
    @KantarPublic
    , 03 - 07 Jun
    Chgs. w/ Apr

    SKS fans please explain
    something something bounce is fading
  • Options
    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    There was always going to be a third wave. See Andrew Lilico's models. Question is can we accept it and the level of hospitalisation?
    The first 30 seconds of that made we want to turn that off immediately. Is Marr’s questioning always like that. He’s interviewing somebody as an expert. Marr is not an expert. And yet his first question is basically a statement, not a question, which puts the other person on the back foot immediately by leading him against a balanced explanation which he actually appears to be trying to give.
  • Options
    BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    Scott_xP said:

    Having heard and read yet more culture war guff in the last few days, can’t help agreeing even more wi try @GaryLineker on this.
    The booing says more about the booers
    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1402994109283934209

    And the government’s culture warmongering would almost be less objectionable were it not so transparently cynical and inauthentic.
    The anti-woke playbook says oppose taking the knee but the polling shows salt-of-the-earth-red-wall-association-football-fans like the England squad

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404021277279633408

    You don't half post some guff.

    Polling shows a majority don't support taking the knee. Boris statement the other day was about as middling as middling could be, suppprt right to do so, without saying he supported it. That's a perfectly valid position and actually the polling shows one shared by a significant percentage of the nation.
    Does he ever post anything that's not a quote?

    A kazoo has more notes.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited June 2021
    The Times article about the Tories war on woke, criticises them for wading into taking the knee, trans rights and cricketers tweets. By wading in, I think they mean were asked direct questions by the media at every appearance.

    Remind me what Starmer has spent all week banging on about? The 6 million unused vaccines that are slowing our release from restrictions.... don't be silly....knee taking and trans rights.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,904
    **SKWAWKBOX POLL** If Howard Beckett is forced out of the Unite race for General Secretary would you campaign for another candidate?
    No, I would not
    66.1%
    Yes, Coyne
    5.1%
    Yes, Graham
    7.6%
    Yes, Turner
    21.2%
    118 votes
    ·
    BJO Poll if 2 of Beckett, Turner and Graham dont stand down who will win

    Coyne 100%
    3 split left vote 0%
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Polling shows a majority don't support taking the knee.

    Which wasn't point.

    Explicitly criticising it means explicitly criticising the England squad

    Support is of course the damned ratio...

    1/ First of all the headlines. Almost an inverse relationship between support for the knee and support for fans booing the knee.

    - 48% of fans support England players taking the knee at the Euros. 27% oppose.

    - 30% of fans support others booing the knee. 51% oppose. https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1403808606441639945/photo/1
    Belgium took the knee last night, Russia didn't. It's admittedly a small sample but it might be worth 3 goals.
    But those are pretty dire poll for the knee-benders. 30% of England fans support booing the England team

    A third of all their supporters want to boo.

    And they could have EASILY avoided all this with some huge knee bending orgy at the beginnng of the tournament, with all the players kneeling for 17 hours on live BBC on top of a giant wax mannikin carved into the image of Derek Chauvin. On top of the Acropolis. With spontaneous nasal songs by gospel choirs floating above in weird zeppelins marked BLM and carrying an outsize floodlit image of a crying slave child giving his last slice of rusk to a grateful Gary Lineker with a halo

    Why not just do that?

    You don't really get the idea of this virtue signalling thing, do you? The point is to rub everybody else's nose in how wonderful you are as you apologise for stuff you had nothing to do with and if you only do that once they'll forget.
  • Options
    gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    Unite election is looking interesting in a Kremlinology sort of way...


    Owen Jones 🌹
    @OwenJones84
    ·
    28m
    If you want to stop the right taking over Unite - with massive political consequences - because the left, in classic fashion, are divided, please sign this letter >>

    I presume by "the right", there is a candidate that isn't so far left they aren't falling off the edge of the world.
    Should the racist who said deport Priti Patel still be in the Labour movement, let alone a candidate to run Unite and sit on Labour’s National Executive.

    Dear Mr Starmer, see what Heath done immediately after the Rivers of Blood speech, and throw these people out party quicker.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Incidentally the different infection profile between parts of England is super interesting.

    Here is London from the 1st of September



    And this is the North West

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,456
    James O'Brien
    @mrjamesob
    ·
    1h
    Make no mistake. Any extension of Covid restrictions beyond June 21st represents a serious & irreversible squandering of most of the social & economic benefits made possible by our early vaccination success. I will be fascinated to see how client journalists try to spin this.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Polling shows a majority don't support taking the knee.

    Which wasn't point.

    Explicitly criticising it means explicitly criticising the England squad

    Support is of course the damned ratio...

    1/ First of all the headlines. Almost an inverse relationship between support for the knee and support for fans booing the knee.

    - 48% of fans support England players taking the knee at the Euros. 27% oppose.

    - 30% of fans support others booing the knee. 51% oppose. https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1403808606441639945/photo/1
    Belgium took the knee last night, Russia didn't. It's admittedly a small sample but it might be worth 3 goals.
    But those are pretty dire poll for the knee-benders. 30% of England fans support booing the England team

    A third of all their supporters want to boo.

    And they could have EASILY avoided all this with some huge knee bending orgy at the beginnng of the tournament, with all the players kneeling for 17 hours on live BBC on top of a giant wax mannikin carved into the image of Derek Chauvin. On top of the Acropolis. With spontaneous nasal songs by gospel choirs floating above in weird zeppelins marked BLM and carrying an outsize floodlit image of a crying slave child giving his last slice of rusk to a grateful Gary Lineker with a halo

    Why not just do that?

    Well, maybe the players think doing this before each match is a tad more meaningful? Don't get me wrong, I am not a fan of the gesture and I am not completely sure that players who earn in excess of £100k a week are the best examples of ongoing oppression but if it makes the team feel together I am ok with it.

    I am really looking forward to becoming a proper grumpy old man. At the moment my response to too many things is, whatever. It really won't do.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,904
    Nigelb said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 45% (+4)
    LAB: 32% (-1)
    LDEM: 8% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)
    REFUK: 2% (-1)

    via
    @KantarPublic
    , 03 - 07 Jun
    Chgs. w/ Apr

    SKS fans please explain
    Your continuing noble quest to identify SKS fans on here is likely to end in frustration, I think.
    SO, Jonathan, CHB RP, were my likely candidates the latter is no longer a fan
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,141
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:
    Its bollox and we know its bollox from the data from Bolton, Blackburn, Bedfordshire and Kirklees.
    Blackburn cases are still rising.
    On complete data (i.e. The 7th) Kirklees has just had it's highest ever single day cases since February.
    Blackburn's cases have reached their peak and will now start falling, how far and how fast we don't know yet.

    Kirklees is bouncing around (at a level far below what Bolton and Blackburn reached) as cases rise and fall in different parts of the borough.

    But that's cases - the issue is hospitalisations and they're clearly not going to reach anywhere near the levels they reached in the winter in Bolton, Blackburn, Bedfordshire or Kirklees.

    Which shows that any prediction of the country having higher hospitalisations than during the winter is bollox.
    You can see the same effect in Scotland where cases have risen much faster than in England.

    Number currently in hospital is 132 compared to a January peak of over 2,000.
    You don't want to be comparing to the peak, you want to be comparing to similar point in the autumn wave.

    Latest "complete" 7-day average figure for Scotland is 4th of June:
    828 cases
    23.7 admissions (pain for the 70% of a person admitted)
    113 in hospital
    9.4 on ventilators
    0.7 deaths (28-days measure)

    The comparable case figure from wutumn is the 2nd of October
    799 cases
    49 admissions
    172.6 in hospital
    19.1 on ventialtors
    2.7 deaths (28-days measure)
    Very much in line with other data showing rate of hospitalisation per positive test has roughly halved.

    So for "the link has been broken" read "the constant of proportionality has been halved."

    At the current rate of growth, that halving is worth about 12 days.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    edited June 2021
    Forget all the bullshit about paintings of the queen...when are we going to start tackling this. Stabbed like it was nothing over nothing.. Warning...

    https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1404024803523239941?s=19

    While, last night in london 5 shot, a load of stabbing, a mini riot. Standard these days.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,591
    Fishing said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Polling shows a majority don't support taking the knee.

    Which wasn't point.

    Explicitly criticising it means explicitly criticising the England squad

    Support is of course the damned ratio...

    1/ First of all the headlines. Almost an inverse relationship between support for the knee and support for fans booing the knee.

    - 48% of fans support England players taking the knee at the Euros. 27% oppose.

    - 30% of fans support others booing the knee. 51% oppose. https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1403808606441639945/photo/1
    Belgium took the knee last night, Russia didn't. It's admittedly a small sample but it might be worth 3 goals.
    But those are pretty dire poll for the knee-benders. 30% of England fans support booing the England team

    A third of all their supporters want to boo.

    And they could have EASILY avoided all this with some huge knee bending orgy at the beginnng of the tournament, with all the players kneeling for 17 hours on live BBC on top of a giant wax mannikin carved into the image of Derek Chauvin. On top of the Acropolis. With spontaneous nasal songs by gospel choirs floating above in weird zeppelins marked BLM and carrying an outsize floodlit image of a crying slave child giving his last slice of rusk to a grateful Gary Lineker with a halo

    Why not just do that?

    You don't really get the idea of this virtue signalling thing, do you? The point is to rub everybody else's nose in how wonderful you are as you apologise for stuff you had nothing to do with and if you only do that once they'll forget.
    If they do what I suggest - the 17 hour knee bending orgy on the roof of the Acropolis - they need to script the interchange between the starved and crying slave child who gives his last rusk of bread to St Gary Lineker in a halo

    Of course Gary would refuse the rusk, at first. The child is famished, and desperately needs to eat

    But this is St Gary in a halo!

    The child insists


    "No, Saint Gary, you take this rusk, you live a live of great wealth but sometimes you pay a surprisingly small amount of tax via a clever offshore arrangement and those modest taxes possibly go to the health service so you maybe help people like me. A bit. Please, Saint Gary, please take it, you....... you..."

    Child chokes up. Goes on:

    "You deserve this rusk, more than me."

    Saint Gary smiles, seeing the good sense of the innocent starving child, and reaches for the rusk
  • Options
    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    James O'Brien
    @mrjamesob
    ·
    1h
    Make no mistake. Any extension of Covid restrictions beyond June 21st represents a serious & irreversible squandering of most of the social & economic benefits made possible by our early vaccination success. I will be fascinated to see how client journalists try to spin this.

    Whilst in isolation this sounds as if O’Brien is against extension, it actually appear to simply be trying to say that it is an unambiguous Johnsonian failure.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,026
    DavidL said:

    mwadams said:

    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    I went for my second vaccine yesterday. I had rearranged it on the internet because I could not make the original appointment. As had a serious chunk of Dundee, apparently. There were more than 150 people queuing outside the Caird Hall where the vaccines were being administered. It took just over an hour to get to the door and another 30 minutes to have the jab inside. Some of the staff were muttering about something going wrong with the booking system, again. I did see one or two people just leave but the vast majority stood in line patiently. Much more mixed crowd this time, a lot of young people plus some old fogies like me back for the second jab.

    I had a pretty rough night, hot and sore and feel somewhat less than 80% this morning but I am glad and relieved to have this done. A couple of weeks now and I will be safe. No certificates issued yesterday. Apparently an online app is "being thought about". Difficult to see how we get freedom for the vaccinated when we cannot establish who they are.

    What on earth is the Scottish Government playing at? Does it really just come down to a refusal to just buy into the UK system? Are there irreconcilable compatability issues? Or what? I guess right now double vaccinated Scots don't currently have the ability to travel to France (or other countries requiring proof of vaccine on entry), even if they wanted to?
    I am now double vaccinated. I have no evidence of that I can produce of that fact. Its almost as if Nicola is keen to justify keeping her petty controls of our social lives by not letting the system work. What do you get in England?
    The record can be seen in the NHS app (but not the Covid one, oddly). And you also get a meaningless bit of cardboard with it written on in biro.
    I got the piece of cardboard after the first vaccination but nothing yesterday.
    We took our vaccination certificates, which we had for previous vaccinations, signed with no problems. We just asked the vaccinator nicely. We have also downloaded our vaccinations from the NHS website and saved them on our phones and iPads. Our 18 year old granddaughter has already had her first jag. I think it’s just a case of of being proactive and not just waiting for bureaucracy. I would assume from posts on PB that it’s the same throughout the UK.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,145
    edited June 2021
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:
    Its bollox and we know its bollox from the data from Bolton, Blackburn, Bedfordshire and Kirklees.
    Blackburn cases are still rising.
    On complete data (i.e. The 7th) Kirklees has just had it's highest ever single day cases since February.
    Blackburn's cases have reached their peak and will now start falling, how far and how fast we don't know yet.

    Kirklees is bouncing around (at a level far below what Bolton and Blackburn reached) as cases rise and fall in different parts of the borough.

    But that's cases - the issue is hospitalisations and they're clearly not going to reach anywhere near the levels they reached in the winter in Bolton, Blackburn, Bedfordshire or Kirklees.

    Which shows that any prediction of the country having higher hospitalisations than during the winter is bollox.
    You can see the same effect in Scotland where cases have risen much faster than in England.

    Number currently in hospital is 132 compared to a January peak of over 2,000.
    You don't want to be comparing to the peak, you want to be comparing to similar point in the autumn wave.

    Latest "complete" 7-day average figure for Scotland is 4th of June:
    828 cases
    23.7 admissions (pain for the 70% of a person admitted)
    113 in hospital
    9.4 on ventilators
    0.7 deaths (28-days measure)

    The comparable case figure from wutumn is the 2nd of October
    799 cases
    49 admissions
    172.6 in hospital
    19.1 on ventialtors
    2.7 deaths (28-days measure)
    You're comparing now to October ???

    Really ???

    Do you want to know what's different between now and October ?

    In Scotland what's different between now and October is 5,880,078 vaccinations.

    A number rising every day.

    The latest number in hospital in Scotland is 132, how high do you think that will go ?

    I'll predict a bit over 200 but no more than 250 ie about 10-12% of the peak number.

    What's your prediction.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    edited June 2021
    Alistair said:

    Incidentally the different infection profile between parts of England is super interesting.

    Here is London from the 1st of September



    And this is the North West

    Interesting that in both areas, the 15-25 age group turning purple is the sign of a big new wave.
  • Options
    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Chris said:

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:
    Its bollox and we know its bollox from the data from Bolton, Blackburn, Bedfordshire and Kirklees.
    Blackburn cases are still rising.
    On complete data (i.e. The 7th) Kirklees has just had it's highest ever single day cases since February.
    Blackburn's cases have reached their peak and will now start falling, how far and how fast we don't know yet.

    Kirklees is bouncing around (at a level far below what Bolton and Blackburn reached) as cases rise and fall in different parts of the borough.

    But that's cases - the issue is hospitalisations and they're clearly not going to reach anywhere near the levels they reached in the winter in Bolton, Blackburn, Bedfordshire or Kirklees.

    Which shows that any prediction of the country having higher hospitalisations than during the winter is bollox.
    You can see the same effect in Scotland where cases have risen much faster than in England.

    Number currently in hospital is 132 compared to a January peak of over 2,000.
    You don't want to be comparing to the peak, you want to be comparing to similar point in the autumn wave.

    Latest "complete" 7-day average figure for Scotland is 4th of June:
    828 cases
    23.7 admissions (pain for the 70% of a person admitted)
    113 in hospital
    9.4 on ventilators
    0.7 deaths (28-days measure)

    The comparable case figure from wutumn is the 2nd of October
    799 cases
    49 admissions
    172.6 in hospital
    19.1 on ventialtors
    2.7 deaths (28-days measure)
    Very much in line with other data showing rate of hospitalisation per positive test has roughly halved.

    So for "the link has been broken" read "the constant of proportionality has been halved."

    At the current rate of growth, that halving is worth about 12 days.
    And if hospitalisations are largely in younger age groups and/or of a milder nature which lead to a far more rapid turnaround?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,862
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Having heard and read yet more culture war guff in the last few days, can’t help agreeing even more wi try @GaryLineker on this.
    The booing says more about the booers
    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1402994109283934209

    And the government’s culture warmongering would almost be less objectionable were it not so transparently cynical and inauthentic.
    The anti-woke playbook says oppose taking the knee but the polling shows salt-of-the-earth-red-wall-association-football-fans like the England squad

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404021277279633408

    I actually want England to lose, because of this. A bunch of virtue-signalling millionaires deliberately antagonising their supporters, by perpetuating an absurd ritual which is now an emblem of cultural Marxism, and which was originally aimed at police tactics in the a far off land

    What the actual F has that got to do with English football?

    Also, Southgate is a twat
    Ah, one of the posh English that hates their own country, just as Orwell said...
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,591
    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Polling shows a majority don't support taking the knee.

    Which wasn't point.

    Explicitly criticising it means explicitly criticising the England squad

    Support is of course the damned ratio...

    1/ First of all the headlines. Almost an inverse relationship between support for the knee and support for fans booing the knee.

    - 48% of fans support England players taking the knee at the Euros. 27% oppose.

    - 30% of fans support others booing the knee. 51% oppose. https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1403808606441639945/photo/1
    Belgium took the knee last night, Russia didn't. It's admittedly a small sample but it might be worth 3 goals.
    But those are pretty dire poll for the knee-benders. 30% of England fans support booing the England team

    A third of all their supporters want to boo.

    And they could have EASILY avoided all this with some huge knee bending orgy at the beginnng of the tournament, with all the players kneeling for 17 hours on live BBC on top of a giant wax mannikin carved into the image of Derek Chauvin. On top of the Acropolis. With spontaneous nasal songs by gospel choirs floating above in weird zeppelins marked BLM and carrying an outsize floodlit image of a crying slave child giving his last slice of rusk to a grateful Gary Lineker with a halo

    Why not just do that?

    Well, maybe the players think doing this before each match is a tad more meaningful? Don't get me wrong, I am not a fan of the gesture and I am not completely sure that players who earn in excess of £100k a week are the best examples of ongoing oppression but if it makes the team feel together I am ok with it.

    I am really looking forward to becoming a proper grumpy old man. At the moment my response to too many things is, whatever. It really won't do.
    Yes, go for grumpiness. There is a quiet pleasure in being nihilistically outraged about everything in a sullen way
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,904
    gealbhan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 45% (+4)
    LAB: 32% (-1)
    LDEM: 8% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)
    REFUK: 2% (-1)

    via
    @KantarPublic
    , 03 - 07 Jun
    Chgs. w/ Apr

    SKS fans please explain
    Your continuing noble quest to identify SKS fans on here is likely to end in frustration, I think.
    There’s nowt much wrong with SKS. Pandemic is extraordinary times, and this is jab bounce in polls.

    Any Boris fans on here want to point out the substance behind Boris ratings and Tory poll leads, or admit it’s a house of straw
    I found 1 Mexican Pete is one as well

    No SKS fans explaining why he loses everything ho touches of which B&S will add to on 1/7/21 unfortunately
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Having heard and read yet more culture war guff in the last few days, can’t help agreeing even more wi try @GaryLineker on this.
    The booing says more about the booers
    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1402994109283934209

    And the government’s culture warmongering would almost be less objectionable were it not so transparently cynical and inauthentic.
    The anti-woke playbook says oppose taking the knee but the polling shows salt-of-the-earth-red-wall-association-football-fans like the England squad

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404021277279633408

    I actually want England to lose, because of this. A bunch of virtue-signalling millionaires deliberately antagonising their supporters, by perpetuating an absurd ritual which is now an emblem of cultural Marxism, and which was originally aimed at police tactics in the a far off land

    What the actual F has that got to do with English football?

    Also, Southgate is a twat
    So you can no longer lecture or question anyone else's patriotism. If you do, you can get fucked with one of your own dildos.

    Wanting England to lose, Orwell had people like you bang to rights.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416

    DavidL said:

    mwadams said:

    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    I went for my second vaccine yesterday. I had rearranged it on the internet because I could not make the original appointment. As had a serious chunk of Dundee, apparently. There were more than 150 people queuing outside the Caird Hall where the vaccines were being administered. It took just over an hour to get to the door and another 30 minutes to have the jab inside. Some of the staff were muttering about something going wrong with the booking system, again. I did see one or two people just leave but the vast majority stood in line patiently. Much more mixed crowd this time, a lot of young people plus some old fogies like me back for the second jab.

    I had a pretty rough night, hot and sore and feel somewhat less than 80% this morning but I am glad and relieved to have this done. A couple of weeks now and I will be safe. No certificates issued yesterday. Apparently an online app is "being thought about". Difficult to see how we get freedom for the vaccinated when we cannot establish who they are.

    What on earth is the Scottish Government playing at? Does it really just come down to a refusal to just buy into the UK system? Are there irreconcilable compatability issues? Or what? I guess right now double vaccinated Scots don't currently have the ability to travel to France (or other countries requiring proof of vaccine on entry), even if they wanted to?
    I am now double vaccinated. I have no evidence of that I can produce of that fact. Its almost as if Nicola is keen to justify keeping her petty controls of our social lives by not letting the system work. What do you get in England?
    The record can be seen in the NHS app (but not the Covid one, oddly). And you also get a meaningless bit of cardboard with it written on in biro.
    I got the piece of cardboard after the first vaccination but nothing yesterday.
    We took our vaccination certificates, which we had for previous vaccinations, signed with no problems. We just asked the vaccinator nicely. We have also downloaded our vaccinations from the NHS website and saved them on our phones and iPads. Our 18 year old granddaughter has already had her first jag. I think it’s just a case of of being proactive and not just waiting for bureaucracy. I would assume from posts on PB that it’s the same throughout the UK.
    Well if you have to ask nicely I am really stuffed, especially after waiting an hour and a half.

    But your signed form has no official status, cannot be used to determine whether you should be admitted to events etc. I think this is a huge mistake. We need to be very clear: double vaccination = freedom. You want freedom, get vaccinated. Simples.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,591

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Having heard and read yet more culture war guff in the last few days, can’t help agreeing even more wi try @GaryLineker on this.
    The booing says more about the booers
    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1402994109283934209

    And the government’s culture warmongering would almost be less objectionable were it not so transparently cynical and inauthentic.
    The anti-woke playbook says oppose taking the knee but the polling shows salt-of-the-earth-red-wall-association-football-fans like the England squad

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404021277279633408

    I actually want England to lose, because of this. A bunch of virtue-signalling millionaires deliberately antagonising their supporters, by perpetuating an absurd ritual which is now an emblem of cultural Marxism, and which was originally aimed at police tactics in the a far off land

    What the actual F has that got to do with English football?

    Also, Southgate is a twat
    So you can no longer lecture or question anyone else's patriotism. If you do, you can get fucked with one of your own dildos.

    Wanting England to lose, Orwell had people like you bang to rights.
    They're gonna lose anyway, so I might as well get on the right side of history
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,375

    Scott_xP said:

    Having heard and read yet more culture war guff in the last few days, can’t help agreeing even more wi try @GaryLineker on this.
    The booing says more about the booers
    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1402994109283934209

    And the government’s culture warmongering would almost be less objectionable were it not so transparently cynical and inauthentic.
    The anti-woke playbook says oppose taking the knee but the polling shows salt-of-the-earth-red-wall-association-football-fans like the England squad

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404021277279633408

    You don't half post some guff.

    Polling shows a majority don't support taking the knee. Boris statement the other day was about as middling as middling could be, suppprt right to do so, without saying he supported it. That's a perfectly valid position and actually the polling shows one shared by a significant percentage of the nation.
    But I bet and hope that if you asked the public if they positively approved of the BOOing the "yes" percentage would be very low indeed. Much lower than those who just don't support the team making the gesture.

    You know why? Because it would (by and large) be just 2 categories of people (with significant overlap) who thankfully do not constitute a large slice of our population.

    The 2 categories are as follows:

    (i) Right wing culture warriors with a BLM "marxist" hang up.

    (ii) Racists.

    This is the truth I write here on this gorgeous Sunday morning. So nobody should bother even thinking about demurring.

    The Match - I'm not confident. I'm on the 1/1 draw.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    edited June 2021

    gealbhan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 45% (+4)
    LAB: 32% (-1)
    LDEM: 8% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)
    REFUK: 2% (-1)

    via
    @KantarPublic
    , 03 - 07 Jun
    Chgs. w/ Apr

    SKS fans please explain
    Your continuing noble quest to identify SKS fans on here is likely to end in frustration, I think.
    There’s nowt much wrong with SKS. Pandemic is extraordinary times, and this is jab bounce in polls.

    Any Boris fans on here want to point out the substance behind Boris ratings and Tory poll leads, or admit it’s a house of straw
    I found 1 Mexican Pete is one as well

    No SKS fans explaining why he loses everything ho touches of which B&S will add to on 1/7/21 unfortunately
    Wait until you hear about Jeremy Corbyn.

    During his leadership Labour ended up with 30 fewer MPs and 405 fewer councillors.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Having heard and read yet more culture war guff in the last few days, can’t help agreeing even more wi try @GaryLineker on this.
    The booing says more about the booers
    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1402994109283934209

    And the government’s culture warmongering would almost be less objectionable were it not so transparently cynical and inauthentic.
    The anti-woke playbook says oppose taking the knee but the polling shows salt-of-the-earth-red-wall-association-football-fans like the England squad

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404021277279633408

    I actually want England to lose, because of this. A bunch of virtue-signalling millionaires deliberately antagonising their supporters, by perpetuating an absurd ritual which is now an emblem of cultural Marxism, and which was originally aimed at police tactics in the a far off land

    What the actual F has that got to do with English football?

    Also, Southgate is a twat
    So you can no longer lecture or question anyone else's patriotism. If you do, you can get fucked with one of your own dildos.

    Wanting England to lose, Orwell had people like you bang to rights.
    They're gonna lose anyway, so I might as well get on the right side of history
    Traitor.

    I bet you would have sold out England during WWII.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,591

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Having heard and read yet more culture war guff in the last few days, can’t help agreeing even more wi try @GaryLineker on this.
    The booing says more about the booers
    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1402994109283934209

    And the government’s culture warmongering would almost be less objectionable were it not so transparently cynical and inauthentic.
    The anti-woke playbook says oppose taking the knee but the polling shows salt-of-the-earth-red-wall-association-football-fans like the England squad

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404021277279633408

    I actually want England to lose, because of this. A bunch of virtue-signalling millionaires deliberately antagonising their supporters, by perpetuating an absurd ritual which is now an emblem of cultural Marxism, and which was originally aimed at police tactics in the a far off land

    What the actual F has that got to do with English football?

    Also, Southgate is a twat
    So you can no longer lecture or question anyone else's patriotism. If you do, you can get fucked with one of your own dildos.

    Wanting England to lose, Orwell had people like you bang to rights.
    They're gonna lose anyway, so I might as well get on the right side of history
    Traitor.

    I bet you would have sold out England during WWII.
    Only if offered a reasonable amount of money. What do you take me for?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    edited June 2021
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Having heard and read yet more culture war guff in the last few days, can’t help agreeing even more wi try @GaryLineker on this.
    The booing says more about the booers
    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1402994109283934209

    And the government’s culture warmongering would almost be less objectionable were it not so transparently cynical and inauthentic.
    The anti-woke playbook says oppose taking the knee but the polling shows salt-of-the-earth-red-wall-association-football-fans like the England squad

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404021277279633408

    I actually want England to lose, because of this. A bunch of virtue-signalling millionaires deliberately antagonising their supporters, by perpetuating an absurd ritual which is now an emblem of cultural Marxism, and which was originally aimed at police tactics in the a far off land

    What the actual F has that got to do with English football?

    Also, Southgate is a twat
    So you can no longer lecture or question anyone else's patriotism. If you do, you can get fucked with one of your own dildos.

    Wanting England to lose, Orwell had people like you bang to rights.
    They're gonna lose anyway, so I might as well get on the right side of history
    Traitor.

    I bet you would have sold out England during WWII.
    Only if offered a reasonable amount of money. What do you take me for?
    A traitor.

    You're like a ScotNat who cannot deal with GB/UK doing well.
  • Options
    gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    gealbhan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 45% (+4)
    LAB: 32% (-1)
    LDEM: 8% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)
    REFUK: 2% (-1)

    via
    @KantarPublic
    , 03 - 07 Jun
    Chgs. w/ Apr

    SKS fans please explain
    Your continuing noble quest to identify SKS fans on here is likely to end in frustration, I think.
    There’s nowt much wrong with SKS. Pandemic is extraordinary times, and this is jab bounce in polls.

    Any Boris fans on here want to point out the substance behind Boris ratings and Tory poll leads, or admit it’s a house of straw
    I found 1 Mexican Pete is one as well

    No SKS fans explaining why he loses everything ho touches of which B&S will add to on 1/7/21 unfortunately
    Bugger off to Mexico you old trot. You realise it’s you who keeps Labour out of power? Your instinct should be attacking enemies not comrades, no wonder the Tories on here love you so much.

    But before you do pack for Mexico, suggest a replacement for Starmer who would be doing better in these jab bounce post Corbyn competence shred current polls in these extraordinary times.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,298
    MaxPB posted a similar guessestimate the other day...

    Based on that illustrative guess, these 30 non-vaxxed deaths would previously have corresponded to 570 vaxxed deaths. We'd have taken 570 down to 12, which would be a 98% reduction. This would be spectacularly good news, particularly for fans of conditional probability. (2/2)

    https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1403984977746878465?s=19
  • Options
    gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    DavidL said:

    mwadams said:

    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    I went for my second vaccine yesterday. I had rearranged it on the internet because I could not make the original appointment. As had a serious chunk of Dundee, apparently. There were more than 150 people queuing outside the Caird Hall where the vaccines were being administered. It took just over an hour to get to the door and another 30 minutes to have the jab inside. Some of the staff were muttering about something going wrong with the booking system, again. I did see one or two people just leave but the vast majority stood in line patiently. Much more mixed crowd this time, a lot of young people plus some old fogies like me back for the second jab.

    I had a pretty rough night, hot and sore and feel somewhat less than 80% this morning but I am glad and relieved to have this done. A couple of weeks now and I will be safe. No certificates issued yesterday. Apparently an online app is "being thought about". Difficult to see how we get freedom for the vaccinated when we cannot establish who they are.

    What on earth is the Scottish Government playing at? Does it really just come down to a refusal to just buy into the UK system? Are there irreconcilable compatability issues? Or what? I guess right now double vaccinated Scots don't currently have the ability to travel to France (or other countries requiring proof of vaccine on entry), even if they wanted to?
    I am now double vaccinated. I have no evidence of that I can produce of that fact. Its almost as if Nicola is keen to justify keeping her petty controls of our social lives by not letting the system work. What do you get in England?
    The record can be seen in the NHS app (but not the Covid one, oddly). And you also get a meaningless bit of cardboard with it written on in biro.
    I got the piece of cardboard after the first vaccination but nothing yesterday.
    We took our vaccination certificates, which we had for previous vaccinations, signed with no problems. We just asked the vaccinator nicely. We have also downloaded our vaccinations from the NHS website and saved them on our phones and iPads. Our 18 year old granddaughter has already had her first jag. I think it’s just a case of of being proactive and not just waiting for bureaucracy. I would assume from posts on PB that it’s the same throughout the UK.
    And me. It’s in my momento box.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,591

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Having heard and read yet more culture war guff in the last few days, can’t help agreeing even more wi try @GaryLineker on this.
    The booing says more about the booers
    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1402994109283934209

    And the government’s culture warmongering would almost be less objectionable were it not so transparently cynical and inauthentic.
    The anti-woke playbook says oppose taking the knee but the polling shows salt-of-the-earth-red-wall-association-football-fans like the England squad

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404021277279633408

    I actually want England to lose, because of this. A bunch of virtue-signalling millionaires deliberately antagonising their supporters, by perpetuating an absurd ritual which is now an emblem of cultural Marxism, and which was originally aimed at police tactics in the a far off land

    What the actual F has that got to do with English football?

    Also, Southgate is a twat
    So you can no longer lecture or question anyone else's patriotism. If you do, you can get fucked with one of your own dildos.

    Wanting England to lose, Orwell had people like you bang to rights.
    They're gonna lose anyway, so I might as well get on the right side of history
    Traitor.

    I bet you would have sold out England during WWII.
    Only if offered a reasonable amount of money. What do you take me for?
    A traitor.

    You're like a ScotNat who cannot deal with GB/UK doing well.
    You seem to think I am some kind of "traitor". I would only betray my country in the most extreme circumstances. and for high moral reasons

    For example: if my country was about to lose, I'd probably switch sides then

    But even at that point I'd want some kind of inducement, to take such a grave step. About 200 euro? A new ipad? Not the massive iPad pro of course, but a good one
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,863
    gealbhan said:

    Nigelb said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 45% (+4)
    LAB: 32% (-1)
    LDEM: 8% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)
    REFUK: 2% (-1)

    via
    @KantarPublic
    , 03 - 07 Jun
    Chgs. w/ Apr

    SKS fans please explain
    Your continuing noble quest to identify SKS fans on here is likely to end in frustration, I think.
    There’s nowt much wrong with SKS. Pandemic is extraordinary times, and this is jab bounce in polls.

    Any Boris fans on here want to point out the substance behind Boris ratings and Tory poll leads, or admit it’s a house of straw
    Perhaps, but fan is a strong word.
    (I am no fan of either.)
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,062

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Having heard and read yet more culture war guff in the last few days, can’t help agreeing even more wi try @GaryLineker on this.
    The booing says more about the booers
    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1402994109283934209

    And the government’s culture warmongering would almost be less objectionable were it not so transparently cynical and inauthentic.
    The anti-woke playbook says oppose taking the knee but the polling shows salt-of-the-earth-red-wall-association-football-fans like the England squad

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404021277279633408

    I actually want England to lose, because of this. A bunch of virtue-signalling millionaires deliberately antagonising their supporters, by perpetuating an absurd ritual which is now an emblem of cultural Marxism, and which was originally aimed at police tactics in the a far off land

    What the actual F has that got to do with English football?

    Also, Southgate is a twat
    So you can no longer lecture or question anyone else's patriotism. If you do, you can get fucked with one of your own dildos.

    Wanting England to lose, Orwell had people like you bang to rights.
    To be fair I think there are a few patriotic 'anyone but England' types. Peter Hitchens is another who comes to mind. Sport is considered a distraction from true patriotism.
  • Options
    gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    gealbhan said:

    DavidL said:

    mwadams said:

    DavidL said:

    alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    I went for my second vaccine yesterday. I had rearranged it on the internet because I could not make the original appointment. As had a serious chunk of Dundee, apparently. There were more than 150 people queuing outside the Caird Hall where the vaccines were being administered. It took just over an hour to get to the door and another 30 minutes to have the jab inside. Some of the staff were muttering about something going wrong with the booking system, again. I did see one or two people just leave but the vast majority stood in line patiently. Much more mixed crowd this time, a lot of young people plus some old fogies like me back for the second jab.

    I had a pretty rough night, hot and sore and feel somewhat less than 80% this morning but I am glad and relieved to have this done. A couple of weeks now and I will be safe. No certificates issued yesterday. Apparently an online app is "being thought about". Difficult to see how we get freedom for the vaccinated when we cannot establish who they are.

    What on earth is the Scottish Government playing at? Does it really just come down to a refusal to just buy into the UK system? Are there irreconcilable compatability issues? Or what? I guess right now double vaccinated Scots don't currently have the ability to travel to France (or other countries requiring proof of vaccine on entry), even if they wanted to?
    I am now double vaccinated. I have no evidence of that I can produce of that fact. Its almost as if Nicola is keen to justify keeping her petty controls of our social lives by not letting the system work. What do you get in England?
    The record can be seen in the NHS app (but not the Covid one, oddly). And you also get a meaningless bit of cardboard with it written on in biro.
    I got the piece of cardboard after the first vaccination but nothing yesterday.
    We took our vaccination certificates, which we had for previous vaccinations, signed with no problems. We just asked the vaccinator nicely. We have also downloaded our vaccinations from the NHS website and saved them on our phones and iPads. Our 18 year old granddaughter has already had her first jag. I think it’s just a case of of being proactive and not just waiting for bureaucracy. I would assume from posts on PB that it’s the same throughout the UK.
    And me. It’s in my momento box.
    Whole contents of my momento box probably built into bonfire after my death from Covid anyway. 😕
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I like Naomi Klein's twitter profile.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Having heard and read yet more culture war guff in the last few days, can’t help agreeing even more wi try @GaryLineker on this.
    The booing says more about the booers
    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1402994109283934209

    And the government’s culture warmongering would almost be less objectionable were it not so transparently cynical and inauthentic.
    The anti-woke playbook says oppose taking the knee but the polling shows salt-of-the-earth-red-wall-association-football-fans like the England squad

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404021277279633408

    I actually want England to lose, because of this. A bunch of virtue-signalling millionaires deliberately antagonising their supporters, by perpetuating an absurd ritual which is now an emblem of cultural Marxism, and which was originally aimed at police tactics in the a far off land

    What the actual F has that got to do with English football?

    Also, Southgate is a twat
    So you can no longer lecture or question anyone else's patriotism. If you do, you can get fucked with one of your own dildos.

    Wanting England to lose, Orwell had people like you bang to rights.
    They're gonna lose anyway, so I might as well get on the right side of history
    Traitor.

    I bet you would have sold out England during WWII.
    Only if offered a reasonable amount of money. What do you take me for?
    A traitor.

    You're like a ScotNat who cannot deal with GB/UK doing well.
    You seem to think I am some kind of "traitor". I would only betray my country in the most extreme circumstances. and for high moral reasons

    For example: if my country was about to lose, I'd probably switch sides then

    But even at that point I'd want some kind of inducement, to take such a grave step. About 200 euro? A new ipad? Not the massive iPad pro of course, but a good one
    I've ordered the new iPad Pro 12.9 inch one.

    Brilliant, worth every penny.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Polling shows a majority don't support taking the knee.

    Which wasn't point.

    Explicitly criticising it means explicitly criticising the England squad

    Support is of course the damned ratio...

    1/ First of all the headlines. Almost an inverse relationship between support for the knee and support for fans booing the knee.

    - 48% of fans support England players taking the knee at the Euros. 27% oppose.

    - 30% of fans support others booing the knee. 51% oppose. https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1403808606441639945/photo/1
    Belgium took the knee last night, Russia didn't. It's admittedly a small sample but it might be worth 3 goals.
    But those are pretty dire poll for the knee-benders. 30% of England fans support booing the England team

    A third of all their supporters want to boo.

    And they could have EASILY avoided all this with some huge knee bending orgy at the beginnng of the tournament, with all the players kneeling for 17 hours on live BBC on top of a giant wax mannikin carved into the image of Derek Chauvin. On top of the Acropolis. With spontaneous nasal songs by gospel choirs floating above in weird zeppelins marked BLM and carrying an outsize floodlit image of a crying slave child giving his last slice of rusk to a grateful Gary Lineker with a halo

    Why not just do that?

    Well, maybe the players think doing this before each match is a tad more meaningful? Don't get me wrong, I am not a fan of the gesture and I am not completely sure that players who earn in excess of £100k a week are the best examples of ongoing oppression but if it makes the team feel together I am ok with it.

    I am really looking forward to becoming a proper grumpy old man. At the moment my response to too many things is, whatever. It really won't do.
    ‘… I am not completely sure that players who earn in excess of £100k a week are the best examples of ongoing oppression…’

    I find that view bonkers. So these players have to ignore, wipe, their backgrounds and views just because they have been extraordinarily fortunate, through their own hard work and persistence, to reach their current position?

    And having reached their position, to be criticised for using their profile to try to improve matters, by highlighting ongoing inequalities, for other people.

    Essentially we’re saying ‘Take the money and shut the fuck up. Don’t get uppity.’
    Sigh. Taking the knee came from America. It came from black players who wanted to make a respectful point during their national anthem that their community is oppressed, is the victim of fairly random violence by the police and are simply not equal in the eyes of the country whose national anthem was being sung. I thought that was a commendable and restrained response that got these issues talked about.

    What we have before football matches here is rather different. But, if it makes them feel better and together, whatever.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,863
    A generous interpretation would be that having been comprehensively discredited as a serious writer, she is pursuing an alternative career in alt reality.
    Which, as we know, can be lucrative.

    Or she's just bonkers.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,386
    What makes me laugh about the Unite fandango is that if "the right" take over, the union will continue to be a union defending its members and fighting battled with employers. Indeed it will be able to do a better job as members cash will no longer be spent in libel battles or building questionable facilities.

    So obviously the left are outraged. A trade union isn't there to represent its members. It is there to smash capitalism and make the UK a truly socialist society. Except of course the left as usual are in their sack doing ferret fights as they can't agree on what shade of red would be on the mandatory jacket badge to be worn in the true socialist republic to come.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,062
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Having heard and read yet more culture war guff in the last few days, can’t help agreeing even more wi try @GaryLineker on this.
    The booing says more about the booers
    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1402994109283934209

    And the government’s culture warmongering would almost be less objectionable were it not so transparently cynical and inauthentic.
    The anti-woke playbook says oppose taking the knee but the polling shows salt-of-the-earth-red-wall-association-football-fans like the England squad

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404021277279633408

    I actually want England to lose, because of this. A bunch of virtue-signalling millionaires deliberately antagonising their supporters, by perpetuating an absurd ritual which is now an emblem of cultural Marxism, and which was originally aimed at police tactics in the a far off land

    What the actual F has that got to do with English football?

    Also, Southgate is a twat
    So you can no longer lecture or question anyone else's patriotism. If you do, you can get fucked with one of your own dildos.

    Wanting England to lose, Orwell had people like you bang to rights.
    They're gonna lose anyway, so I might as well get on the right side of history
    Traitor.

    I bet you would have sold out England during WWII.
    Only if offered a reasonable amount of money. What do you take me for?
    A traitor.

    You're like a ScotNat who cannot deal with GB/UK doing well.
    You seem to think I am some kind of "traitor". I would only betray my country in the most extreme circumstances. and for high moral reasons

    For example: if my country was about to lose, I'd probably switch sides then

    But even at that point I'd want some kind of inducement, to take such a grave step. About 200 euro? A new ipad? Not the massive iPad pro of course, but a good one
    A proper Tory never wishes having to choose between money and country but if pushed then money it is.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,628

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Having heard and read yet more culture war guff in the last few days, can’t help agreeing even more wi try @GaryLineker on this.
    The booing says more about the booers
    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1402994109283934209

    And the government’s culture warmongering would almost be less objectionable were it not so transparently cynical and inauthentic.
    The anti-woke playbook says oppose taking the knee but the polling shows salt-of-the-earth-red-wall-association-football-fans like the England squad

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404021277279633408

    I actually want England to lose, because of this. A bunch of virtue-signalling millionaires deliberately antagonising their supporters, by perpetuating an absurd ritual which is now an emblem of cultural Marxism, and which was originally aimed at police tactics in the a far off land

    What the actual F has that got to do with English football?

    Also, Southgate is a twat
    So you can no longer lecture or question anyone else's patriotism. If you do, you can get fucked with one of your own dildos.

    Wanting England to lose, Orwell had people like you bang to rights.
    To be fair I think there are a few patriotic 'anyone but England' types. Peter Hitchens is another who comes to mind. Sport is considered a distraction from true patriotism.
    Always knew Hitchens was a tosser this is just further proof.

    Still he did provide one of the highlights of the past year when he didn't realised what stochastic modelling meant.

    https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1258679760902934528
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Polling shows a majority don't support taking the knee.

    Which wasn't point.

    Explicitly criticising it means explicitly criticising the England squad

    Support is of course the damned ratio...

    1/ First of all the headlines. Almost an inverse relationship between support for the knee and support for fans booing the knee.

    - 48% of fans support England players taking the knee at the Euros. 27% oppose.

    - 30% of fans support others booing the knee. 51% oppose. https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1403808606441639945/photo/1
    Belgium took the knee last night, Russia didn't. It's admittedly a small sample but it might be worth 3 goals.
    But those are pretty dire poll for the knee-benders. 30% of England fans support booing the England team

    A third of all their supporters want to boo.

    And they could have EASILY avoided all this with some huge knee bending orgy at the beginnng of the tournament, with all the players kneeling for 17 hours on live BBC on top of a giant wax mannikin carved into the image of Derek Chauvin. On top of the Acropolis. With spontaneous nasal songs by gospel choirs floating above in weird zeppelins marked BLM and carrying an outsize floodlit image of a crying slave child giving his last slice of rusk to a grateful Gary Lineker with a halo

    Why not just do that?

    Well, maybe the players think doing this before each match is a tad more meaningful? Don't get me wrong, I am not a fan of the gesture and I am not completely sure that players who earn in excess of £100k a week are the best examples of ongoing oppression but if it makes the team feel together I am ok with it.

    I am really looking forward to becoming a proper grumpy old man. At the moment my response to too many things is, whatever. It really won't do.
    ‘… I am not completely sure that players who earn in excess of £100k a week are the best examples of ongoing oppression…’

    I find that view bonkers. So these players have to ignore, wipe, their backgrounds and views just because they have been extraordinarily fortunate, through their own hard work and persistence, to reach their current position?

    And having reached their position, to be criticised for using their profile to try to improve matters, by highlighting ongoing inequalities, for other people.

    Essentially we’re saying ‘Take the money and shut the fuck up. Don’t get uppity.’
    Sigh. Taking the knee came from America. It came from black players who wanted to make a respectful point during their national anthem that their community is oppressed, is the victim of fairly random violence by the police and are simply not equal in the eyes of the country whose national anthem was being sung. I thought that was a commendable and restrained response that got these issues talked about.

    What we have before football matches here is rather different. But, if it makes them feel better and together, whatever.
    I bet you that every single black player on the England football team has been stopped by police more times in the last 5 years than you have in your entire lifetime.
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 45% (+4)
    LAB: 32% (-1)
    LDEM: 8% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)
    REFUK: 2% (-1)

    via
    @KantarPublic
    , 03 - 07 Jun
    Chgs. w/ Apr

    45% after 11 years of government. Johnson is some PM.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,591

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Having heard and read yet more culture war guff in the last few days, can’t help agreeing even more wi try @GaryLineker on this.
    The booing says more about the booers
    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1402994109283934209

    And the government’s culture warmongering would almost be less objectionable were it not so transparently cynical and inauthentic.
    The anti-woke playbook says oppose taking the knee but the polling shows salt-of-the-earth-red-wall-association-football-fans like the England squad

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404021277279633408

    I actually want England to lose, because of this. A bunch of virtue-signalling millionaires deliberately antagonising their supporters, by perpetuating an absurd ritual which is now an emblem of cultural Marxism, and which was originally aimed at police tactics in the a far off land

    What the actual F has that got to do with English football?

    Also, Southgate is a twat
    So you can no longer lecture or question anyone else's patriotism. If you do, you can get fucked with one of your own dildos.

    Wanting England to lose, Orwell had people like you bang to rights.
    They're gonna lose anyway, so I might as well get on the right side of history
    Traitor.

    I bet you would have sold out England during WWII.
    Only if offered a reasonable amount of money. What do you take me for?
    A traitor.

    You're like a ScotNat who cannot deal with GB/UK doing well.
    You seem to think I am some kind of "traitor". I would only betray my country in the most extreme circumstances. and for high moral reasons

    For example: if my country was about to lose, I'd probably switch sides then

    But even at that point I'd want some kind of inducement, to take such a grave step. About 200 euro? A new ipad? Not the massive iPad pro of course, but a good one
    A proper Tory never wishes having to choose between money and country but if pushed then money it is.
    Yes, that's what makes us truly patriotic, lefties never understand this, they just don't *do* patriotism
  • Options
    gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    gealbhan said:

    Unite election is looking interesting in a Kremlinology sort of way...


    Owen Jones 🌹
    @OwenJones84
    ·
    28m
    If you want to stop the right taking over Unite - with massive political consequences - because the left, in classic fashion, are divided, please sign this letter >>

    I presume by "the right", there is a candidate that isn't so far left they aren't falling off the edge of the world.
    Should the racist who said deport Priti Patel still be in the Labour movement, let alone a candidate to run Unite and sit on Labour’s National Executive.

    Dear Mr Starmer, see what Heath done immediately after the Rivers of Blood speech, and throw these people out party quicker.
    That’s not a criticism of Starmer, by the way. If someone in Labour gives Rivers of Blood speech tomorrow, does Labours internal democracy allow Starmer to throw them out the party any time say this year?

    How did Heath get away with it with Powell? It looked like smack of firm leadership enough to be rewarded with whomping GE win couple years further on. Did the Leader have that ultimate power who is a member and not?

    PS Alf Garnett was not a comedy creation, it was anthropology The writer went down Dockers Club’s Sunday afternoons and listened to the working class Torys.

  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,386
    Boris's Global Britain G7 not quite as billed:

    https://twitter.com/herszenhorn/status/1404023812962893825

    "Message just now from handler about Boris Johnson's closing G7 news conference as summit host: "Unfortunately the UK does not accept journalists from foreign outlets" Global Britain. Right."
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,907
    'You can teach the world to sing.....'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/b08nl6c1
  • Options
    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    If players take the knee it’s their choice if fans boo it’s their choice. There’s nothing worse than non football or plastic football fans on social media telling either side how they should behave.

    Ultimately once the match kicks off all the fans booers and non booers will get behind the team and that’s the most important thing.
  • Options
    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,386
    Meanwhile how can Raaaaab complain that the EU are treating NI as being different to the rest of the UK? It IS different by government policy. I do not need export licenses and paperwork to send products to a warehouse in Barnsley. I do if it is in Belfast.

    When you have to have a licence and export permits to send stuff from GB to NI it is demonstrably different to GB. As Raaaaaaaaaab knows.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162
    504,957 vaccinations in England yesterday - 228,144 1st doses, 276,813 2nd doses

    https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1404033803593601028
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489

    There was always going to be a third wave. See Andrew Lilico's models. Question is can we accept it and the level of hospitalisation?
    I don't agree, with the statement 'there was always going to be a third wave' when Texas opened up fully in march, there was no third wave, when other US states followed, non have had a third wave, and here in the UK when we did earlier rounds of opening up, e.g. schools, some predicted that there would be a third wave, but id did not start.

    We have a tired wave, because we have a new and more transmissible strain of the viruses, the Delta variant, dominant in the UK.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,162

    Boris's Global Britain G7 not quite as billed:

    https://twitter.com/herszenhorn/status/1404023812962893825

    "Message just now from handler about Boris Johnson's closing G7 news conference as summit host: "Unfortunately the UK does not accept journalists from foreign outlets" Global Britain. Right."

    "@HugoGye
    To be fair this is a covid policy, and my understanding is that it applies to every leader's press conference today. They are all 'by invitation only' to keep numbers in the room down."
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,602
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Having heard and read yet more culture war guff in the last few days, can’t help agreeing even more wi try @GaryLineker on this.
    The booing says more about the booers
    https://twitter.com/timesradio/status/1402994109283934209

    And the government’s culture warmongering would almost be less objectionable were it not so transparently cynical and inauthentic.
    The anti-woke playbook says oppose taking the knee but the polling shows salt-of-the-earth-red-wall-association-football-fans like the England squad

    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1404021277279633408

    You don't half post some guff.

    Polling shows a majority don't support taking the knee. Boris statement the other day was about as middling as middling could be, suppprt right to do so, without saying he supported it. That's a perfectly valid position and actually the polling shows one shared by a significant percentage of the nation.
    But I bet and hope that if you asked the public if they positively approved of the BOOing the "yes" percentage would be very low indeed. Much lower than those who just don't support the team making the gesture.

    You know why? Because it would (by and large) be just 2 categories of people (with significant overlap) who thankfully do not constitute a large slice of our population.

    The 2 categories are as follows:

    (i) Right wing culture warriors with a BLM "marxist" hang up.

    (ii) Racists.

    This is the truth I write here on this gorgeous Sunday morning. So nobody should bother even thinking about demurring.

    The Match - I'm not confident. I'm on the 1/1 draw.
    Unfortunately, we had the numbers upthread.

    About half of fans support the knee thing and oppose the booing.

    About 30% oppose the knee thing and support the booing.

    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1403808606441639945?s=19

    Although it's not confirmed, hard not to imagine it's the same 30% and 50% each time.

    The 30% feels a bit like a defiant rage against the dying of a certain sort of light.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416
    Brom said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 45% (+4)
    LAB: 32% (-1)
    LDEM: 8% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)
    REFUK: 2% (-1)

    via
    @KantarPublic
    , 03 - 07 Jun
    Chgs. w/ Apr

    45% after 11 years of government. Johnson is some PM.
    According to most on here he is a clown, dishonest, incompetent, lazy and stupid. Can you imagine what the leads would be if he was any good?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,234

    Meanwhile how can Raaaaab complain that the EU are treating NI as being different to the rest of the UK? It IS different by government policy. I do not need export licenses and paperwork to send products to a warehouse in Barnsley. I do if it is in Belfast.

    When you have to have a licence and export permits to send stuff from GB to NI it is demonstrably different to GB. As Raaaaaaaaaab knows.

    Raab didn't realise how important the Brexit border was in creating a difference between GB and NI...
  • Options
    northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,534
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Polling shows a majority don't support taking the knee.

    Which wasn't point.

    Explicitly criticising it means explicitly criticising the England squad

    Support is of course the damned ratio...

    1/ First of all the headlines. Almost an inverse relationship between support for the knee and support for fans booing the knee.

    - 48% of fans support England players taking the knee at the Euros. 27% oppose.

    - 30% of fans support others booing the knee. 51% oppose. https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1403808606441639945/photo/1
    Belgium took the knee last night, Russia didn't. It's admittedly a small sample but it might be worth 3 goals.
    But those are pretty dire poll for the knee-benders. 30% of England fans support booing the England team

    A third of all their supporters want to boo.

    And they could have EASILY avoided all this with some huge knee bending orgy at the beginnng of the tournament, with all the players kneeling for 17 hours on live BBC on top of a giant wax mannikin carved into the image of Derek Chauvin. On top of the Acropolis. With spontaneous nasal songs by gospel choirs floating above in weird zeppelins marked BLM and carrying an outsize floodlit image of a crying slave child giving his last slice of rusk to a grateful Gary Lineker with a halo

    Why not just do that?

    Well, maybe the players think doing this before each match is a tad more meaningful? Don't get me wrong, I am not a fan of the gesture and I am not completely sure that players who earn in excess of £100k a week are the best examples of ongoing oppression but if it makes the team feel together I am ok with it.

    I am really looking forward to becoming a proper grumpy old man. At the moment my response to too many things is, whatever. It really won't do.
    ‘… I am not completely sure that players who earn in excess of £100k a week are the best examples of ongoing oppression…’

    I find that view bonkers. So these players have to ignore, wipe, their backgrounds and views just because they have been extraordinarily fortunate, through their own hard work and persistence, to reach their current position?

    And having reached their position, to be criticised for using their profile to try to improve matters, by highlighting ongoing inequalities, for other people.

    Essentially we’re saying ‘Take the money and shut the fuck up. Don’t get uppity.’
    Sigh. Taking the knee came from America. It came from black players who wanted to make a respectful point during their national anthem that their community is oppressed, is the victim of fairly random violence by the police and are simply not equal in the eyes of the country whose national anthem was being sung. I thought that was a commendable and restrained response that got these issues talked about.

    What we have before football matches here is rather different. But, if it makes them feel better and together, whatever.
    Thanks, yes, I know where the gesture came from.

    Whether you agree with it or not, and plainly many people don’t, the gesture has become recognised as a symbol of anti-racism. One which clearly matters to the players. Regardless of the whole ‘BLM are woke Marxists who want to impose their bonkers critcal race theory bullshit on freeborn Englishmen’ tendency.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,145

    MaxPB posted a similar guessestimate the other day...

    Based on that illustrative guess, these 30 non-vaxxed deaths would previously have corresponded to 570 vaxxed deaths. We'd have taken 570 down to 12, which would be a 98% reduction. This would be spectacularly good news, particularly for fans of conditional probability. (2/2)

    https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1403984977746878465?s=19

    We'll also see a similar but slightly smaller effect on hospitalisations.

    If its a 90% reduction then cases would have to be ten times higher than they were at the previous peak to have the same effect.

    And we can see from looking at the actual data from Bolton etc that that is not going to happen.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,416
    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Polling shows a majority don't support taking the knee.

    Which wasn't point.

    Explicitly criticising it means explicitly criticising the England squad

    Support is of course the damned ratio...

    1/ First of all the headlines. Almost an inverse relationship between support for the knee and support for fans booing the knee.

    - 48% of fans support England players taking the knee at the Euros. 27% oppose.

    - 30% of fans support others booing the knee. 51% oppose. https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1403808606441639945/photo/1
    Belgium took the knee last night, Russia didn't. It's admittedly a small sample but it might be worth 3 goals.
    But those are pretty dire poll for the knee-benders. 30% of England fans support booing the England team

    A third of all their supporters want to boo.

    And they could have EASILY avoided all this with some huge knee bending orgy at the beginnng of the tournament, with all the players kneeling for 17 hours on live BBC on top of a giant wax mannikin carved into the image of Derek Chauvin. On top of the Acropolis. With spontaneous nasal songs by gospel choirs floating above in weird zeppelins marked BLM and carrying an outsize floodlit image of a crying slave child giving his last slice of rusk to a grateful Gary Lineker with a halo

    Why not just do that?

    Well, maybe the players think doing this before each match is a tad more meaningful? Don't get me wrong, I am not a fan of the gesture and I am not completely sure that players who earn in excess of £100k a week are the best examples of ongoing oppression but if it makes the team feel together I am ok with it.

    I am really looking forward to becoming a proper grumpy old man. At the moment my response to too many things is, whatever. It really won't do.
    ‘… I am not completely sure that players who earn in excess of £100k a week are the best examples of ongoing oppression…’

    I find that view bonkers. So these players have to ignore, wipe, their backgrounds and views just because they have been extraordinarily fortunate, through their own hard work and persistence, to reach their current position?

    And having reached their position, to be criticised for using their profile to try to improve matters, by highlighting ongoing inequalities, for other people.

    Essentially we’re saying ‘Take the money and shut the fuck up. Don’t get uppity.’
    Sigh. Taking the knee came from America. It came from black players who wanted to make a respectful point during their national anthem that their community is oppressed, is the victim of fairly random violence by the police and are simply not equal in the eyes of the country whose national anthem was being sung. I thought that was a commendable and restrained response that got these issues talked about.

    What we have before football matches here is rather different. But, if it makes them feel better and together, whatever.
    I bet you that every single black player on the England football team has been stopped by police more times in the last 5 years than you have in your entire lifetime.
    Probably. But in the last year I can find the number for, 2018/19 the number of people fatally shot by the UK police was 3 and I think that they were all terrorism related. We have problems with racism in this country of course and those who boo this gesture are a part of it but it is absurd to think we are anything comparable to the US. Absurd.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953
    alex_ said:

    James O'Brien
    @mrjamesob
    ·
    1h
    Make no mistake. Any extension of Covid restrictions beyond June 21st represents a serious & irreversible squandering of most of the social & economic benefits made possible by our early vaccination success. I will be fascinated to see how client journalists try to spin this.

    Whilst in isolation this sounds as if O’Brien is against extension, it actually appear to simply be trying to say that it is an unambiguous Johnsonian failure.
    If the PM had announced definitely no restrictions after 21st, O’Brien would be saying that it was reckless to stick to dates in the face of increasing case numbers. He’s one of many hacks who simply don’t like the PM because Brexit, and will argue against whatever he happens to be doing today.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,030
    gealbhan said:

    gealbhan said:

    Unite election is looking interesting in a Kremlinology sort of way...


    Owen Jones 🌹
    @OwenJones84
    ·
    28m
    If you want to stop the right taking over Unite - with massive political consequences - because the left, in classic fashion, are divided, please sign this letter >>

    I presume by "the right", there is a candidate that isn't so far left they aren't falling off the edge of the world.
    Should the racist who said deport Priti Patel still be in the Labour movement, let alone a candidate to run Unite and sit on Labour’s National Executive.

    Dear Mr Starmer, see what Heath done immediately after the Rivers of Blood speech, and throw these people out party quicker.
    That’s not a criticism of Starmer, by the way. If someone in Labour gives Rivers of Blood speech tomorrow, does Labours internal democracy allow Starmer to throw them out the party any time say this year?

    How did Heath get away with it with Powell? It looked like smack of firm leadership enough to be rewarded with whomping GE win couple years further on. Did the Leader have that ultimate power who is a member and not?

    PS Alf Garnett was not a comedy creation, it was anthropology The writer went down Dockers Club’s Sunday afternoons and listened to the working class Torys.

    Nope. Speight said the initial character was based on his own father who had been an East end Docker but both Speight and Warren Mitchell said the bigotry was developed after Mitchell observed British Rail railway porters when he worked on the railways.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,806
    DavidL said:

    Brom said:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 45% (+4)
    LAB: 32% (-1)
    LDEM: 8% (-2)
    GRN: 6% (-1)
    REFUK: 2% (-1)

    via
    @KantarPublic
    , 03 - 07 Jun
    Chgs. w/ Apr

    45% after 11 years of government. Johnson is some PM.
    According to most on here he is a clown, dishonest, incompetent, lazy and stupid. Can you imagine what the leads would be if he was any good?
    He would be Keir Starmer in that case. And that's all you need to know about the state of British politics.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    This needs to come with a trigger warning for Emily Thornberry or the hard left

    https://twitter.com/nicola4wbe/status/1404008064861282304?s=21
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,591
    A bunch of deeply dodgy people, mainly Marxists- like John McDonnell MP - have signed a motion DENOUNCING THE BOOING OF THE TAKING OF THE KNEE

    https://twitter.com/AntiRacismDay/status/1404016122106683396?s=20

    That should help calm things. The Far Left and the Marxists ardently supporting a ritual which the footballers say is non-political and definitely not Marxist.

    Next, Nigel Farage and Rod Liddle sign a petition DECRYING THE DENOUNCING OF THE BOOING OF THE TAKING OF THE KNEE
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,781
    Sandpit said:

    Macron is a total and utter arse, again.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/boris-johnson-infuriated-emmanuel-macron-suggested-northern/

    Yet another sign that the EU a see Northern Ireland purely as a political football to push around the UK, paying little regard to the history of the Province.

    As I’ve said before, the EU really need to let the UK sand RoI sort out the Province between them, the Union has no understanding of the place.

    Interesting. In the clip, unlike in the headline, BJ does not sound at all infuriated. He sound like a grownup hoping that Macron will stop behaving like a posturing teenager.

    Are any politicians talking about "a sausage war"? Brits or EU or EU member politicians?
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,386
    Scott_xP said:

    Meanwhile how can Raaaaab complain that the EU are treating NI as being different to the rest of the UK? It IS different by government policy. I do not need export licenses and paperwork to send products to a warehouse in Barnsley. I do if it is in Belfast.

    When you have to have a licence and export permits to send stuff from GB to NI it is demonstrably different to GB. As Raaaaaaaaaab knows.

    Raab didn't realise how important the Brexit border was in creating a difference between GB and NI...
    They are still trying to pretend that the thing they said would not happen has not happened. Yes we can't send stuff from one part of the UK to another without export permits but thats definitely not the same as NI being any different to the rest of the UK and definitely not a customs border.

    I don;'t think the ministers saying this as so stupid as to believe what they are saying. They know its a lie. They do so knowing that Tory voters want to believe the lie and are happy to accept what they are being told even when their own eyes and ears disprove it.

    As long as people continue to attack the government and post their long list of things it has got wrong and then punish it by voting for it, the government will continue to act in this way. Johnson could probably shag someones wife and daughter (and why not, if Alan Clark could manage it...) and still get their vote because he's such a lad isn't he.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,863

    Boris's Global Britain G7 not quite as billed:

    https://twitter.com/herszenhorn/status/1404023812962893825

    "Message just now from handler about Boris Johnson's closing G7 news conference as summit host: "Unfortunately the UK does not accept journalists from foreign outlets" Global Britain. Right."

    TBF, it's not unreasonable to associate Boris with large spherical objects.
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