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Something to watch over the next few weeks? – politicalbetting.com
Something to watch over the next few weeks? – politicalbetting.com
One of my earliest memories of Scottish independence was back in 1992 when, the then Depute Leader of the Scottish National Party, Jim Sillars lost his seat in the general election and ranted about ’90 minute patriots’ aka part time SNP voters aka how long a football match lasts.
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Look at the floor
Wait until the remaining restrictions are lifted in England but kept in Scotland, fingers crossed that will make them even more unpopular.
And you're VERY optimistic if you think England is about to lift restrictions.
As I mentioned yesterday, I think we reached Peak Boris on the 25th May. There are a series of issues that are starting to spiral downwards and with that will go his support. The slide from his zenith may be gradual, but as he dips so I suspect desire for Scottish independence will also flow again.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/06/12/boris-johnson-infuriated-emmanuel-macron-suggested-northern/
Yet another sign that the EU a see Northern Ireland purely as a political football to push around the UK, paying little regard to the history of the Province.
As I’ve said before, the EU really need to let the UK sand RoI sort out the Province between them, the Union has no understanding of the place.
The outdoor test events have been successful, and the numbers in hospital have not risen with the case numbers (because vaccines work!). It’s probably going to be everything except nightclubs on 21st. They’re building up to a full house at Wembley for the Euros final, and Silverstone have sold 150k tickets for the Grand Prix on 18th July.
Some stats from my part of the world this morning - 80% of positive cases, and 90% of hospitalisations last month in Dubai, were of unvaccinated individuals.
https://gulfnews.com/uae/health/nine-out-of-10-covid-19-patients-in-dubai-unvaccinated-dubai-health-official-1.1623523091706
I'm afraid this is one example of things unravelling. The deal Johnson struck over Brexit is a disaster on Northern Ireland.
And, you won't like this but it's true, Theresa May's deal was the best possible Brexit all things considered, including to save the union.
The union in its current and historic format is finished because of Boris' Brexit. It's only a matter of time.
What do you propose as a practical solution, to the issues in NI?
I'll be able to do some gardening later instead of watching the cricket!
Deep, deep joy!
“What share of UK vaccine stock has been discarded as not suitable for use prior to being injected? Wales reports their figures every week: 0.8% of Pfizer, 0.2% of AZ, 0.0% Moderna. What are the UK equivalent numbers?”
https://twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1403954578937241603?s=20
If the vaccines are rubbish, then it’s game over and we need to suck it up and get on with it.
"We must be patient"
"It's just a few more weeks"
"Let's not blow all the progress we've made"
"We need more data"
"We need more second doses"
"We need to vaccinate the young"
"We need to strike a balance"
"Cases are going up"
"We need to be very careful"
"What about Long Covid?"
"The R value is higher for this variant"
"What about the situation in Africa/Asia/on the Moon?"
"Let's see where we are in a month"
***Repeats in a continuous cycle until 2177***
PS. We've another of the public health Taliban on TV talking about masks forever now. Wibbling about possible behavioural changes rather than a straightforward Michie-style doctor's boot stamping on your face forever, but nonetheless, good grief... And another one who's searching for excuses to keep lockdown forever.
https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1403781975425564675
How is this chancer going to ‘sort it out’, and just what is his ‘understanding’ of the Province ?
They never had to suffer the horrific bombings, maimings or shootings.
I'm afraid that if you go down this Brexit route there is only one other alternative: that Ireland unites. Johnson knew this.
And that's the price you pay for "really" leaving, which is the most fatuous, infantile, playground approach to politics in my lifetime.
Israel and UAE confirm tha vaccines work, with the vast majority in hospital being vaccine refuseniks.
https://twitter.com/Gareth_Rose/status/1403963790300008448?s=20
...
In terms of deadliest terrorist attacks, the European mainland has suffered greatly:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_Europe#Deadliest_attacks
It's fair enough to critique the EU for its mistakes on e.g. the early vaccine rollout.
It's not fair enough to critique them when you don't know what you're talking about.
Yes, the EU’s weaponisation of Northern Ireland as a political point-scoring exercise, is the most fatuous, infantile playground approach to politics in my lifetime too.
However NI was doing very well when both the Republic and the UK, including NI were part of the EU, and many warned that leaving the EU would cause problems. Johnson, among other pooh-poohed that idea.
Any problems therefor are down to Britains hard Brexit government to solve. Especially as it signed an agreement which, it was claimed, solved them.
At some point this is going to break, right down the Irish Sea. It's the only route out and he knew that when he pandered to the headbangers on the right wing who wanted a pure Brexit at any cost.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/28/exclusive-fifth-english-voters-oppose-scottish-independence/
Synopsis: Only 32% of English voters surveyed opposed independence for Scotland, just 20% were strongly opposed, and more English voters now oppose bribing Scotland to stay with even more money than are in favour.
The numbers will only turn against the Union, on both sides of the border, more and more as time progresses. The younger age groups in Scotland are strongly pro-secession, and the English are either apathetic about the survival of the Union or fed up with it. It is finished. Just a matter of time. And the idea that there'll be any appetite in England at all to keep hanging on to Northern Ireland once the Union fractures is for the birds.
There have been century stands for the last wicket of course, and Essex once managed a double century one!
Against Derbyshire, 1947.
https://gulfnews.com/uae/health/nine-out-of-10-covid-19-patients-in-dubai-unvaccinated-dubai-health-official-1.1623523091706
U.K. needs to hold its nerve, even as cases go up there isn’t the strain on the health system that was seen in previous waves.
https://christopherashleyford.medium.com/the-lab-leak-inquiry-at-the-state-department-96973cff3a65
We're going to make our lockdown assessment in August. If the measures still exist then in a legal sense then we're putting our house up for sale and leaving the country. I've almost qualified for Swiss citizenship by marriage and have full residency rights there. Happily my company is happy for people to work from our Swiss outpost indefinitely too. It's not perfect but at least Switzerland will dump all of this crap. Between the two of us the government stands to lose six figures in income tax plus all of the other random taxes we pay.
Regardless of whether the issues are “down to” Brexit both sides need to work to solve them.
The GFA was established to achieve an objective (fudging the border) but was predicated on both RoI and the UK being in the EEA.
That is no longer the case. So the rational thing to do is to find another way to achieve the same objective. It is clear the protocol is contributing to unionist disquiet and tension in the province. So we need to look at another solution.
Part of the problem is the EU’s insistence on the sanctity of the single market. That implies there needs to be a hard border somewhere in the chain GB-NI-ROI-EU. None of the options are acceptable to all the parties. So people need to figure out a more creative solution - a process with which the EU Commission has refused to engage.
I’d be interested to hear practical suggestions for solving the problem which go beyond pretending it’s exclusively the fault of the EU and that they simply abandon their rules and treaties in respect of Ireland.
I note Sandpit didn’t respond to my question, which wasn’t simply rhetorical.
A time limited partition was rightly described by Sir Edward Carson as being “a sentence of death with a stay of execution”
(Btw, @HYUFD I thought “Ulster will fight and Ulster will right” was Randolph Church not Carson. Sir Edward privately described that approach as “the high road to treason and despair”)
This situation is entirely of our Government's making and, given it's attitude to co-operation to anyone nearer than an ocean away, it's hardly surprising if the EU (including RoI) regard the matter as 'not their problem'.
It's entirely down to Johnson's bluster and his habit of 'winging it'.
If Brexit hadn’t happened we wouldn’t we in this situation. Sure
If we had stayed in the Single Market we wouldn’t be in this situation. Sure
The British voters and government decided those were not acceptable options. Sure
None of that means that it is the sole responsibility of the British to solve the issue. The only way to solve problems is to work collaboratively to find a resolution that is acceptable to all the stakeholders.
It’s not my fault so I don’t care if the problem escalates.
The political calculation BoZo made was which stakeholders it was in his interest to shaft.
That calculation is not sustainable, but his objective was achieved. The choice is who to betray next.
The EU keeps shooting itself in the foot, but learns nothing each time.
*except when I wanted to ‘get #brexit done’ to win an election. Then I happily sacrificed it, as my predecessor said no PM ever could.
https://on.ft.com/3wj78vq https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1403976150746030080/photo/1
"Should the UK leave the EU?" We left. The EEA is not the EU, had an entirely separate treaty with the UK and a completely different list of member states. That hardline Brexiteers are still clueless as to the difference is staggering.
There's an obvious and huge conflict of interest between the PM of the UK, who is desperate to hold the Union together, and the people of England, many of whom don't care or actively want it to break up. We need an English government to speak up for the English people asap.
Reunion of that island will cause an explosion of bloodshed. I suspect there will be a mass, perhaps forced, exodus of the unionists to the RUK mainland. Who pays for that financially is another matter but it will be extraordinarily expensive.
Having said that, although the loss of Scotland from the union will be very sad for historic reasons, it feels as if it is now inevitable. Will this see an exodus also of those who are unionist and feel as if they have no place in an Indy Scotland? May there also be terrorism?
Looked it up, 198, Trent Bridge 2014, v India.
Whist May's deal provided a solution, it was only offered after she had torpedoed the long-term version of that solution so I can't give her as much credit as you even in hindsight.
What makes it funniest of all is that we are arguing about our right to do what we like even as the same government pledges to not only stay aligned to the EU on standards but to increase our standards thus ensuring we remain aligned.
There is no need for the impasse because the clown car government has enacted the May deal with regards to trade alignment. If we stopped twatting about we could have free trade next week as all the conditions are there for it.
As the G7 has demonstrated, the rest of the world doesn't see perfidious Europeans, it sees lying Brits ripping up their own agreement. We have shown that we can't be trusted which is why the likes of America have said they expect us to start to behave if we want to be relevant to the club. The two photos the White House released say it all. Biden with his hand on Johnson's back, speaking to a small child. And Biden speaking to Macron as equals.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/06/11/pine-island-ice-shelf-collapse/
Coupled with that - the challenges and arguments the SNP have to circle are, to be frank, difficult.
Johnson can't have that. So instead we will have trade sanctions due to the non-compliance of the UK which is compliant. Its so stupid, macho posturing instead of realpolitik. When the UK doesn't stick to its word and to agreements signed months ago there is little incentive for other parties to waste more time engaging with us when we will just trash that agreement as well.
The UK are acting like twats. As the US were. Biden is telling the G7 "America is back" in that it is now behaving and is sorry. Until we stop twatting about and say sorry, we will have no friends and no allies on this one. It is on us to compromise from our current position not them. If the deal doesn't work then its status quo ante time.
Though I am no (small d) democrat this would have a legitimacy that would help the UK or EU choke down the result and consequences depending on who won/lost.
They are the other side of the same coin as the anti-vaxxers.
There is Good News. As the UK and EEA share standards and the UK is pledged to only raise standards and not lower them, the UK and EEA are aligned. So the 3rd country status we demanded and the checks we insisted on are not required. All that is needed is for the UK and EEA to agree that aligned standards are aligned, say that should in future there be any disagreement they will need to review the agreement, and simply drop the bullshit.
We don't do that. The UK government has told the Blue Wall that we are now free, to do what we wanna do, and we wanna get loaded and and we wanna have a good time, we wanna have a party. To have to admit that the pudding was over-egged, we remain aligned to EEA standards and that is in our interests would not go down well.
So instead we will have sanctions placed on us. Biden will offer to act as intermediary and will tell us that when we sign international treaties it is best practice to stick to them.
Arrogant? Definitely. But so is one large country demanding that 27 countries should change the agreed rules in a way that the one wants and the 27 don't particularly.
I'm not saying that the EU right in their calculation, but it's not totally obvious that they're wrong either.
Of course, the one thing more frustrating than hatred is indifference.
This isn't the break up of Yugoslavia though. The RoI is not the backward looking isolationist Craggy Island of decades ago, it is a modern, increasingly secular European society. The rise of the Alliance Party shows that for a growing subset of NI voters it looks the way forward.
Using the arguments the EU are currently using in NI, their only possible border between England and Scotland will be a very hard one indeed.
There is a lot of sentimental attraction to the notion of a unified Ireland around the world. They would have a lot of friends.
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1403983207012388864
Now that we have the rights to do what we want at the border we on one hand allow pox-laden people to fly in without even a check, and have leading Brexiteers like Tim Martin bleating that anti-foreign rhetoric encouraged by Tim Martin means that Tim Martin can't recruit enough foreign labour. Perhaps - and its only a suggestion based on the available evidence - we need the foreigners after all..
https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/australia-tour-of-england-and-scotland-2013-531603/england-vs-australia-1st-test-566932/full-scorecard
It's not just us, they have bad relations with virtually every one of their neighbours, and many of their own member states. They remind me more and more of China - annoying everybody they deal with, but not realising that the problem might just be with them rather than everybody else on the planet.
What is wrong with equivalence with an automatic review after 5 years?
Where they should be filmed is a new housing development or a supermarket car park.
We won't like it. But when our friends and allies and people we need to be amiable to sign new trade deals tell us this, we don't have the option to ignore them if we want those deals. GB (we're no longer the UK thanks to Johnson) is not Uber Alles.
The responsible thing to do is has a discussion with your partner and say “I’d there a better way”?
Though this, of course, is an important part of the calculus. The Union with Scotland is doomed, and the Northern Irish Unionist's geographical and cultural links are primarily with Scotland. Thus, when Scotland goes, Northern Ireland necessarily follows (England won't want it.) It's just a matter of what the end state is: reunification, a crown dependency, or an independent state. There are arguments for each. It'll be up to the people to decide.
How about instead of us aligning to the EU on food standards, they align to ours?
Of course, that would mean a sudden, dramatic change in the EU’s laws to bring them in line, which wouldn’t be cheap. And it would make their farmers less competitive going forward as we kept enforcing high welfare and regulatory standards on them.
But it would resolve the issue of sovereignty in the minds of Brexiteers and resolve the Irish border issues.
And as a bonus, it would probably destroy CAP.