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Opinium finds that the public mostly believed the claims made to MPs on Wednesday by Dom Cummings –

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  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Sex pest MP Rob Roberts set to be kicked out of the Commons
     
    Talks between Commons Leader and shadow Leader increasingly focus on tabling a Motion of Expulsion
     
    It would be the first time this mechanism has been used to kick out an MP since 1954…
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1398750614897758210/photo/1

    "Brave" of the Tories to be so keen on triggering a by-election that Labour really ought to be favourites for.
    Why? 80 seat majority — who cares about 1 seat, really?
    It doesn't matter and being brave here is the right thing to do.

    But gifting the opposition a probably winnable seat is not something you'd expect government's to do very often. Kudos to them if they do here.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,804
    Not a fan of the warmer weather, especially at night.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,310
    Andy_JS said:

    Not a fan of the warmer weather, especially at night.

    Key is to wear something light and floaty.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Sex pest MP Rob Roberts set to be kicked out of the Commons
     
    Talks between Commons Leader and shadow Leader increasingly focus on tabling a Motion of Expulsion
     
    It would be the first time this mechanism has been used to kick out an MP since 1954…
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1398750614897758210/photo/1

    "Brave" of the Tories to be so keen on triggering a by-election that Labour really ought to be favourites for.
    Why? 80 seat majority — who cares about 1 seat, really?
    It doesn't matter and being brave here is the right thing to do.

    But gifting the opposition a probably winnable seat is not something you'd expect government's to do very often. Kudos to them if they do here.
    Holding Batley and Spen and gaining Delyn would certainly boost Starmer's authority after losing Hartlepool and poor local election results
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,272

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Sex pest MP Rob Roberts set to be kicked out of the Commons
     
    Talks between Commons Leader and shadow Leader increasingly focus on tabling a Motion of Expulsion
     
    It would be the first time this mechanism has been used to kick out an MP since 1954…
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1398750614897758210/photo/1

    He has to go no matter the possible loss of the seat

    He is a disgrace to the party and his career should end now
    I thought Boris was of the opinion that when Rob completed his six weeks of purduh he was home and dry.

    Delyn counld be tricky.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,310

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Sex pest MP Rob Roberts set to be kicked out of the Commons
     
    Talks between Commons Leader and shadow Leader increasingly focus on tabling a Motion of Expulsion
     
    It would be the first time this mechanism has been used to kick out an MP since 1954…
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1398750614897758210/photo/1

    "Brave" of the Tories to be so keen on triggering a by-election that Labour really ought to be favourites for.
    Why? 80 seat majority — who cares about 1 seat, really?
    It doesn't matter and being brave here is the right thing to do.

    But gifting the opposition a probably winnable seat is not something you'd expect government's to do very often. Kudos to them if they do here.
    It's not brave.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,345

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Sex pest MP Rob Roberts set to be kicked out of the Commons
     
    Talks between Commons Leader and shadow Leader increasingly focus on tabling a Motion of Expulsion
     
    It would be the first time this mechanism has been used to kick out an MP since 1954…
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1398750614897758210/photo/1

    He has to go no matter the possible loss of the seat

    He is a disgrace to the party and his career should end now
    I thought Boris was of the opinion that when Rob completed his six weeks of purduh he was home and dry.

    Delyn counld be tricky.
    That is not the point to be fair

    He has to go and if the seat is lost so be it
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Fishing said:

    Here's another perspective - from today's Survation:

    Of the following people, do you believe that they do or do not generally tell the truth? (Net)
    Johnson: -18
    Cummings: -51
    Sunak: +18
    Gove: -22
    Hancock: -24


    I think there's one clear outlier there....

    Yet the main things that Cummings was saying are believed.
    But they only go into more detail about things people had already knew or had guessed. There was no killer revelation there as far as I could see. Cummings was like a battleship turning all his guns on HMS Boris, and Boris has sailed on basically unaffected, for the moment anyway.
    Well indeed. Cummings at worst was only 'confirming' what people already took to be true anyway.

    It was chaotic and a mess in March. I don't think anyone would say otherwise - nor would it be any different with any other PM.

    As I said on the day Cummings spoke, I believed ~90% of what he said though I think he exaggerated personal issues especially regarding Hancock. But it doesn't change anything and its all pretty much open secrets anyway.

    If its all baked in to public opinion anyway, why would voting intention change now?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    edited May 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Sex pest MP Rob Roberts set to be kicked out of the Commons
     
    Talks between Commons Leader and shadow Leader increasingly focus on tabling a Motion of Expulsion
     
    It would be the first time this mechanism has been used to kick out an MP since 1954…
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1398750614897758210/photo/1

    What about this one?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/10/snp-chief-whip-steps-down-sexual-harassment-complaint-patrick-grady

    Or this one?

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/scottish-news/7004191/snp-mp-patricia-gibson-sexual-harassment-claim-criticised/
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,345
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Sex pest MP Rob Roberts set to be kicked out of the Commons
     
    Talks between Commons Leader and shadow Leader increasingly focus on tabling a Motion of Expulsion
     
    It would be the first time this mechanism has been used to kick out an MP since 1954…
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1398750614897758210/photo/1

    "Brave" of the Tories to be so keen on triggering a by-election that Labour really ought to be favourites for.
    Why? 80 seat majority — who cares about 1 seat, really?
    It doesn't matter and being brave here is the right thing to do.

    But gifting the opposition a probably winnable seat is not something you'd expect government's to do very often. Kudos to them if they do here.
    It's not brave.
    No it is the right thing to do
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,115

    Here's another perspective - from today's Survation:

    Of the following people, do you believe that they do or do not generally tell the truth? (Net)
    Johnson: -18
    Cummings: -51
    Sunak: +18
    Gove: -22
    Hancock: -24


    I think there's one clear outlier there....

    Yet the main things that Cummings was saying are believed.
    There's nothing that Cummings said which we didn't know or didn't suspect already.

    So what's the big revelation ?

    That Boris is not a details man ? We knew that.
    That the pandemic plan was crap ? We knew that.
    That politicians don't like to upset people ? We knew that.
    That the government is crap at border control ? We knew that.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,740
    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    I have only been to one Catholic wedding, a friend of mine from medical school, who chose a Non-Conformist as his best man.

    Never have I seen a Best man's speech go down so badly.

    Best man: I was so pleased to see the Papal blessing for David and his wife, I didn't know that you could still buy them...

    Well the BM is meant to be a bit edgy.
    It was a great wedding. The only one that I have been to with a fight, with someone being thrown out, and pretty much everyone drunk. I woke up with a very sore head, and have never found my own wedding ring since. Fortunately Mrs Foxy was in an equally bad state.

    She'd mislaid her's as well, and you decided the best thing was to call it a wash?


    No, but at least she was there to know that I had not mislaid mine in an extramarital bit of dodginess.

    I think I lost it when the Groom, Best man, myself and another were doing our imitation of the Chippendales on the dance floor.

    Weddings are fun, good to have them back.
    Was this many years ago, then, or last week?
    About 25 years ago. Since then my six-pack has been replaced by a party keg.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,926
    edited May 2021
    If he is expelled Roberts would presumably stand in the subsequent by-election. Doubt he'd get more than a trickle of votes, but I think he needs to for the parachute payment (if he's been there long enough to get it).

    Is he the 2019 intake's Jared O'Mara?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,658
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not a fan of the warmer weather, especially at night.

    Key is to wear something light and floaty.
    Or not to wear something light and floaty...
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,804
    edited May 2021
    Sunday Times: lab leak theory "feasible".

    https://twitter.com/Revolution_IRL/status/1398756236208783364
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Sex pest MP Rob Roberts set to be kicked out of the Commons
     
    Talks between Commons Leader and shadow Leader increasingly focus on tabling a Motion of Expulsion
     
    It would be the first time this mechanism has been used to kick out an MP since 1954…
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1398750614897758210/photo/1

    "Brave" of the Tories to be so keen on triggering a by-election that Labour really ought to be favourites for.
    Why? 80 seat majority — who cares about 1 seat, really?
    It doesn't matter and being brave here is the right thing to do.

    But gifting the opposition a probably winnable seat is not something you'd expect government's to do very often. Kudos to them if they do here.
    It's not brave.
    Calling a by-election they have absolutely no need to call? Where they could legitimately just expel him from the party permanently and say they'd fix the loophole so this never happens again while leaving him ostracised on the opposition benches without the whip otherwise?

    In a seat that was Labour 1992-2019? That only needs a 1.2% swing to be lost and there's more LD and PC votes to be squeezed than BXP votes?

    How's that not brave?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not a fan of the warmer weather, especially at night.

    Key is to wear something light and floaty.
    How does wearing a Zeppelin help?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,926
    In fairness Philip said "Brave" rather than brave.

    Politically doing something you don't have to, and which will cost you, is 'brave' in the Yes Minister sense. But here there's not that much of a downside - they're unlikely to let him back in, so the seat is lost to them now anyway (even if in practical terms he might well vote with them most of the time anyway).
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,345

    Fishing said:

    Here's another perspective - from today's Survation:

    Of the following people, do you believe that they do or do not generally tell the truth? (Net)
    Johnson: -18
    Cummings: -51
    Sunak: +18
    Gove: -22
    Hancock: -24


    I think there's one clear outlier there....

    Yet the main things that Cummings was saying are believed.
    But they only go into more detail about things people had already knew or had guessed. There was no killer revelation there as far as I could see. Cummings was like a battleship turning all his guns on HMS Boris, and Boris has sailed on basically unaffected, for the moment anyway.
    Well indeed. Cummings at worst was only 'confirming' what people already took to be true anyway.

    It was chaotic and a mess in March. I don't think anyone would say otherwise - nor would it be any different with any other PM.

    As I said on the day Cummings spoke, I believed ~90% of what he said though I think he exaggerated personal issues especially regarding Hancock. But it doesn't change anything and its all pretty much open secrets anyway.

    If its all baked in to public opinion anyway, why would voting intention change now?
    It depends how this drip feeds into public opinion

    Sky tonight spoke to the scientist who was named by Cummings (and they made a big point of it) as the one who gave the lockdown advice which Boris is alleged to have ignored and he was again warning of early lockdown, which for Sky is par for the course
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,740

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Sex pest MP Rob Roberts set to be kicked out of the Commons
     
    Talks between Commons Leader and shadow Leader increasingly focus on tabling a Motion of Expulsion
     
    It would be the first time this mechanism has been used to kick out an MP since 1954…
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1398750614897758210/photo/1

    He has to go no matter the possible loss of the seat

    He is a disgrace to the party and his career should end now
    I am a bit surprised that the Tories are so shocked at an older man lusting after younger party workers. It is almost as if they operate double standards, where the cult leader can do as he chooses.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,529
    kle4 said:

    If he is expelled Roberts would presumably stand in the subsequent by-election. Doubt he'd get more than a trickle of votes, but I think he needs to for the parachute payment (if he's been there long enough to get it).

    Is he the 2019 intake's Jared O'Mara?

    The more important issue is that it would create a line of unacceptable behaviour; something so awful that the government responds by punishing one of its own MPs. Johnson has been PM for 2 years now, and has studiously avoided setting such a line.

    For that reason alone, expelling Roberts would be a good thing, even if one might want to question whether that line is being set much much much too low. (And it's not happened yet!)
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    So today, for the first time in well over a year, we sat inside a cafe for something to eat and drink.

    A sausage and cheese bap, in my case

    You can't just get away with saying "cheese" round here. We need far, far more detail than that....
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Sex pest MP Rob Roberts set to be kicked out of the Commons
     
    Talks between Commons Leader and shadow Leader increasingly focus on tabling a Motion of Expulsion
     
    It would be the first time this mechanism has been used to kick out an MP since 1954…
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1398750614897758210/photo/1

    He has to go no matter the possible loss of the seat

    He is a disgrace to the party and his career should end now
    I am a bit surprised that the Tories are so shocked at an older man lusting after younger party workers. It is almost as if they operate double standards, where the cult leader can do as he chooses.
    Lusting after people consensually is fair enough.

    Lusting after people and harassing them after they say No is not.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,345
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Sex pest MP Rob Roberts set to be kicked out of the Commons
     
    Talks between Commons Leader and shadow Leader increasingly focus on tabling a Motion of Expulsion
     
    It would be the first time this mechanism has been used to kick out an MP since 1954…
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1398750614897758210/photo/1

    He has to go no matter the possible loss of the seat

    He is a disgrace to the party and his career should end now
    I am a bit surprised that the Tories are so shocked at an older man lusting after younger party workers. It is almost as if they operate double standards, where the cult leader can do as he chooses.
    Not sure if you are alleging Boris is lusting after younger party members and I would have thought the accusation unwise to be honest
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Sex pest MP Rob Roberts set to be kicked out of the Commons
     
    Talks between Commons Leader and shadow Leader increasingly focus on tabling a Motion of Expulsion
     
    It would be the first time this mechanism has been used to kick out an MP since 1954…
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1398750614897758210/photo/1

    "Brave" of the Tories to be so keen on triggering a by-election that Labour really ought to be favourites for.
    Why? 80 seat majority — who cares about 1 seat, really?
    It doesn't matter and being brave here is the right thing to do.

    But gifting the opposition a probably winnable seat is not something you'd expect government's to do very often. Kudos to them if they do here.
    It's not brave.
    Calling a by-election they have absolutely no need to call? Where they could legitimately just expel him from the party permanently and say they'd fix the loophole so this never happens again while leaving him ostracised on the opposition benches without the whip otherwise?

    In a seat that was Labour 1992-2019? That only needs a 1.2% swing to be lost and there's more LD and PC votes to be squeezed than BXP votes?

    How's that not brave?
    Plus Labour won Delyn in the Senedd elections less than a month ago
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    kle4 said:

    If he is expelled Roberts would presumably stand in the subsequent by-election. Doubt he'd get more than a trickle of votes, but I think he needs to for the parachute payment (if he's been there long enough to get it).

    Is he the 2019 intake's Jared O'Mara?

    The more important issue is that it would create a line of unacceptable behaviour; something so awful that the government responds by punishing one of its own MPs. Johnson has been PM for 2 years now, and has studiously avoided setting such a line.

    For that reason alone, expelling Roberts would be a good thing, even if one might want to question whether that line is being set much much much too low. (And it's not happened yet!)
    You might also consider whether MPs in other parties are wondering "So, which of us do they have in their sights next?"
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,425
    Andy_JS said:

    Sunday Times: lab leak theory "feasible".

    https://twitter.com/Revolution_IRL/status/1398756236208783364

    Well, knock me dahn wiv a feather. And there was nick palmer XMP, on this here website, just last night calling me a nutter for entertaining the theory

    In other news, the whole UFO/UAP flap really IS an enormous mystery, with potentially momentous consequences
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,676
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    I have only been to one Catholic wedding, a friend of mine from medical school, who chose a Non-Conformist as his best man.

    Never have I seen a Best man's speech go down so badly.

    Best man: I was so pleased to see the Papal blessing for David and his wife, I didn't know that you could still buy them...

    Well the BM is meant to be a bit edgy.
    It was a great wedding. The only one that I have been to with a fight, with someone being thrown out, and pretty much everyone drunk. I woke up with a very sore head, and have never found my own wedding ring since. Fortunately Mrs Foxy was in an equally bad state.

    The second most edgy Best Man's speech was at my Brothers wedding near Kiel in North Germany.

    Best Man: Welcome to this wedding in Schwelsig-Holstein, a most beautiful part of Germany, formerly Denmark...
    I am reminded of a Lee Nelson joke:

    "I lost my wedding ring...

    ...inside another woman"
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,310
    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not a fan of the warmer weather, especially at night.

    Key is to wear something light and floaty.
    Or not to wear something light and floaty...
    Yes, but I didn't want to go there and make the person I was talking to uncomfortable. And in fact if he happens to be lying on a leather sofa it's better to have something on. Can get sticky otherwise.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,425

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Sex pest MP Rob Roberts set to be kicked out of the Commons
     
    Talks between Commons Leader and shadow Leader increasingly focus on tabling a Motion of Expulsion
     
    It would be the first time this mechanism has been used to kick out an MP since 1954…
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1398750614897758210/photo/1

    He has to go no matter the possible loss of the seat

    He is a disgrace to the party and his career should end now
    I am a bit surprised that the Tories are so shocked at an older man lusting after younger party workers. It is almost as if they operate double standards, where the cult leader can do as he chooses.
    Lusting after people consensually is fair enough.

    Lusting after people and harassing them after they say No is not.
    If we stopped lusting after fertile members of the opposite gender the species would go instinct

    Next: banning erections
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,965
    Is this the first season two teams have done a double ?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Is this the first season two teams have done a double ?

    No. Leicester won the FA Cup.
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    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,977
    Good to see Sturgeons tactic to stir up apathy toward the Scots is seemingly working

    “Exclusive: Only a fifth of English voters oppose Scottish independence, Telegraph poll reveals”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/28/exclusive-fifth-english-voters-oppose-scottish-independence/
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,965
    If Delyn comes up, Labour wins I think.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,965

    Pulpstar said:

    Is this the first season two teams have done a double ?

    No. Leicester won the FA Cup.
    Oops ye lol. Still a decent season for Leicester, Chelsea and Man City.
    Silverware is what counts.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,235
    Leon said:



    Next: banning erections

    It's an excuse I guess.

    'This has ever happened to me before but in this case it's only cos it's been banned.'
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785
    edited May 2021
    Sky News has Flagship story:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1398763026984095749?s=20

    I trust they make a better job of it than the SNP has done with their ferries…
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,476
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Sex pest MP Rob Roberts set to be kicked out of the Commons
     
    Talks between Commons Leader and shadow Leader increasingly focus on tabling a Motion of Expulsion
     
    It would be the first time this mechanism has been used to kick out an MP since 1954…
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1398750614897758210/photo/1

    He has to go no matter the possible loss of the seat

    He is a disgrace to the party and his career should end now
    I am a bit surprised that the Tories are so shocked at an older man lusting after younger party workers. It is almost as if they operate double standards, where the cult leader can do as he chooses.
    Is JRM putting down a marker?
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,345
    Very interesting and built in the UK
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,785

    Very interesting and built in the UK
    Wait for the Nats to whinge if it doesn’t go to Scotland because the yards are full of MOD orders.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Very interesting and built in the UK
    Wait for the Nats to whinge if it doesn’t go to Scotland because the yards are full of MOD orders.
    Should go to Birkenhead. Cammell Laird.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Certainly triggered twitter.

    The hate is ridiculous.

    "God, I hope there's video of it sinking one day."
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,993

    kle4 said:

    If he is expelled Roberts would presumably stand in the subsequent by-election. Doubt he'd get more than a trickle of votes, but I think he needs to for the parachute payment (if he's been there long enough to get it).

    Is he the 2019 intake's Jared O'Mara?

    The more important issue is that it would create a line of unacceptable behaviour; something so awful that the government responds by punishing one of its own MPs. Johnson has been PM for 2 years now, and has studiously avoided setting such a line.

    For that reason alone, expelling Roberts would be a good thing, even if one might want to question whether that line is being set much much much too low. (And it's not happened yet!)
    You might also consider whether MPs in other parties are wondering "So, which of us do they have in their sights next?"
    Of course. And in the Tory Party too.
    Too low a bar for me. Recall being allowed to proceed? Sure.
    Straightforward expulsion should be reserved for jail time imho.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,082
    I thought the HMS QE is our flagship? Everything else looks like a children's toy in comparison.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097

    Good to see Sturgeons tactic to stir up apathy toward the Scots is seemingly working

    “Exclusive: Only a fifth of English voters oppose Scottish independence, Telegraph poll reveals”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/28/exclusive-fifth-english-voters-oppose-scottish-independence/

    Actually 32% oppose it, to 25% who support it with Tory voters most opposed.

    38% of English voters also want border checks with Scotland if it ever votes for independence in the poll
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,352
    Apart from the political results Opinium is also interesting on extending lockdown - 43% want to extend, 34% want to relax in June as planned, 10% think we should have relaxed sooner. Delicately balanced but certainly no great pressure to get on with it at all costs, as some here have been suggesting.

    I think most people would be OK with an extension of a few weeks or longer if necessary. If it was extended for a short period and then extended again they'd find that irritating. If Johnson said "until 90% of willing adults have been vaccinated" or something like that, I think people would sigh but go along with it.
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,476

    Here's another perspective - from today's Survation:

    Of the following people, do you believe that they do or do not generally tell the truth? (Net)
    Johnson: -18
    Cummings: -51
    Sunak: +18
    Gove: -22
    Hancock: -24


    I think there's one clear outlier there....

    Yet the main things that Cummings was saying are believed.
    There's nothing that Cummings said which we didn't know or didn't suspect already.

    So what's the big revelation ?

    That Boris is not a details man ? We knew that.
    That the pandemic plan was crap ? We knew that.
    That politicians don't like to upset people ? We knew that.
    That the government is crap at border control ? We knew that.
    The question used to be whether SKS or the Sunday papers could trawl through Cummings' seven hours of he said, she said and find something.

    But leaving that aside, if Cummings had sewn doubts about whether Boris was saving lives or seeing "his girlfriend" then does today's wedding play into that narrative? Marginal stuff, perhaps.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Certainly triggered twitter.

    The hate is ridiculous.

    "God, I hope there's video of it sinking one day."
    I like the suggestion of "Flaggy McFlagFace"

    Boaty McBoatface was made by Cammell Laird so auspicious history. 😉
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,345

    Very interesting and built in the UK
    Wait for the Nats to whinge if it doesn’t go to Scotland because the yards are full of MOD orders.
    Should go to Birkenhead. Cammell Laird.
    My late uncle worked in Cammell Lairds and he was arranging for us to attend the launch of the HMS Ark Royal in 1950 when he suddenly died in the yard and we did not get to go
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,476
    A prime ministerial royal yacht?
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1398761151207546885

    Jeremy Corbyn's allies are 'preparing to oust Sir Keir Starmer'
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,115

    Apart from the political results Opinium is also interesting on extending lockdown - 43% want to extend, 34% want to relax in June as planned, 10% think we should have relaxed sooner. Delicately balanced but certainly no great pressure to get on with it at all costs, as some here have been suggesting.

    I think most people would be OK with an extension of a few weeks or longer if necessary. If it was extended for a short period and then extended again they'd find that irritating. If Johnson said "until 90% of willing adults have been vaccinated" or something like that, I think people would sigh but go along with it.

    Those who want an extension to the restrictions can stay in their own homes if they choose.

    I doubt they will though.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Good to see Sturgeons tactic to stir up apathy toward the Scots is seemingly working

    “Exclusive: Only a fifth of English voters oppose Scottish independence, Telegraph poll reveals”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/28/exclusive-fifth-english-voters-oppose-scottish-independence/

    "Labour voters in England are more likely to say they support than oppose (37 per cent versus 19 per cent)."

    They've not thought through the consequences of removing Scottish MPs from Parliament. 😂

    Glad to see that I'm in the 1 in 4 backing Scottish independence, versus 1 in 3 opposing it.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137

    Leon said:



    Next: banning erections

    It's an excuse I guess.

    'This has ever happened to me before but in this case it's only cos it's been banned.'
    Anyone in Scottish politics who might make that excuse?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,658
    edited May 2021
    Why are we debating the minutiae of a wedding that we do not yet know was a wedding? Aren't we where we were with Megan and Harry - lots of speculating about an assertion by Megan that turned out to be wrong.

    It could have been a blessing after a Civil Marriage, for all we know.

    The commentary on Times Radio has crossed over into bitchiness - 'The thought of Boris Johnson kissing makes me cringe', which might be OK for Cosmo, but not for decent radio. Rapidly losing patience with that channel.

    Has anyone accused Boris yet of deliberately holding it in secret so he can get more attention? In 5 .. 4 .. 3 ..

    If anyone wants an RC church in all it's gorgeousness, then try St Giles, Cheadle. Designed by Pugin, who went berserk with the decoration. Good selection of piccies on Wikipedia.

    Highnam is excellent because it is a group of Church, Priest's House, School and more built in one setting at the same time.

    On the Banns, it may just not have been noticed. It wasn't for Gordon Brown.

    I'm staying off Popes and their Pretensions.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,097
    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1398761151207546885

    Jeremy Corbyn's allies are 'preparing to oust Sir Keir Starmer'

    Ian Lavery preparing Corbynites for a leadership challenge if Starmer loses Batley and Spen
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,965
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Sex pest MP Rob Roberts set to be kicked out of the Commons
     
    Talks between Commons Leader and shadow Leader increasingly focus on tabling a Motion of Expulsion
     
    It would be the first time this mechanism has been used to kick out an MP since 1954…
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1398750614897758210/photo/1

    He has to go no matter the possible loss of the seat

    He is a disgrace to the party and his career should end now
    I am a bit surprised that the Tories are so shocked at an older man lusting after younger party workers. It is almost as if they operate double standards, where the cult leader can do as he chooses.
    Lusting after people consensually is fair enough.

    Lusting after people and harassing them after they say No is not.
    If we stopped lusting after fertile members of the opposite gender the species would go instinct

    Next: banning erections
    I'm struggling to believe any man or woman alive can resist the charm and good looks of Rob Roberts
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1398761151207546885

    Jeremy Corbyn's allies are 'preparing to oust Sir Keir Starmer'

    Interesting.
    image
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Pulpstar said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXC: Sex pest MP Rob Roberts set to be kicked out of the Commons
     
    Talks between Commons Leader and shadow Leader increasingly focus on tabling a Motion of Expulsion
     
    It would be the first time this mechanism has been used to kick out an MP since 1954…
    https://twitter.com/AVMikhailova/status/1398750614897758210/photo/1

    He has to go no matter the possible loss of the seat

    He is a disgrace to the party and his career should end now
    I am a bit surprised that the Tories are so shocked at an older man lusting after younger party workers. It is almost as if they operate double standards, where the cult leader can do as he chooses.
    Lusting after people consensually is fair enough.

    Lusting after people and harassing them after they say No is not.
    If we stopped lusting after fertile members of the opposite gender the species would go instinct

    Next: banning erections
    I'm struggling to believe any man or woman alive can resist the charm and good looks of Rob Roberts
    Maybe @Leon can stick with just Drakeford rather than going for them both?
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,115

    Apart from the political results Opinium is also interesting on extending lockdown - 43% want to extend, 34% want to relax in June as planned, 10% think we should have relaxed sooner. Delicately balanced but certainly no great pressure to get on with it at all costs, as some here have been suggesting.

    I think most people would be OK with an extension of a few weeks or longer if necessary. If it was extended for a short period and then extended again they'd find that irritating. If Johnson said "until 90% of willing adults have been vaccinated" or something like that, I think people would sigh but go along with it.

    Thinking further there are multiple groups:

    1) Those who want fewer restrictions and would make use of the extra freedoms
    2) Those who want fewer restrictions but don't want to use the extra freedoms
    3) Those who want more restrictions and would accept the extra restrictions
    4) Those who want more restrictions but would ignore the extra restrictions

    There are also subgroups for example:

    1) Those who want more restrictions in this country but want fewer restrictions on international travel
    2) Those who want fewer restrictions in this country but want more restrictions on international travel
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,658

    Apart from the political results Opinium is also interesting on extending lockdown - 43% want to extend, 34% want to relax in June as planned, 10% think we should have relaxed sooner. Delicately balanced but certainly no great pressure to get on with it at all costs, as some here have been suggesting.

    I think most people would be OK with an extension of a few weeks or longer if necessary. If it was extended for a short period and then extended again they'd find that irritating. If Johnson said "until 90% of willing adults have been vaccinated" or something like that, I think people would sigh but go along with it.

    Thinking further there are multiple groups:

    1) Those who want fewer restrictions and would make use of the extra freedoms
    2) Those who want fewer restrictions but don't want to use the extra freedoms
    3) Those who want more restrictions and would accept the extra restrictions
    4) Those who want more restrictions but would ignore the extra restrictions

    There are also subgroups for example:

    1) Those who want more restrictions in this country but want fewer restrictions on international travel
    2) Those who want fewer restrictions in this country but want more restrictions on international travel
    We demand a Venn Diagram.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,676

    So today, for the first time in well over a year, we sat inside a cafe for something to eat and drink.

    A sausage and cheese bap, in my case

    You can't just get away with saying "cheese" round here. We need far, far more detail than that....
    Rest assured, it wasn't Good Brie.

  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,373
    Andy_JS said:

    Not a fan of the warmer weather, especially at night.

    I just sleep in the nude...
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,019

    I thought the HMS QE is our flagship? Everything else looks like a children's toy in comparison.

    HMS Victory is the flagship of 1SL.

    I wonder if the RN have been caught napping and landed with the cost of operating the RFA Flagshag.
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1398761151207546885

    Jeremy Corbyn's allies are 'preparing to oust Sir Keir Starmer'

    Ian Lavery preparing Corbynites for a leadership challenge if Starmer loses Batley and Spen
    It may be Corbynites who push for the leadership challenge most vigorously, but if there is a leadership election, I suspect a more centrist will come out with the crown. and probably one not so tied to stopping Brexit.
  • Options
    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060
    Dura_Ace said:

    I thought the HMS QE is our flagship? Everything else looks like a children's toy in comparison.

    HMS Victory is the flagship of 1SL.

    I wonder if the RN have been caught napping and landed with the cost of operating the RFA Flagshag.
    Making that seaworthy and then sailing it round the world would certainly make a statement about our commitment to sustainable travel...
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,676

    Andy_JS said:

    Not a fan of the warmer weather, especially at night.

    I just sleep alone in the nude...
    Fixed that for you...

    Night all
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,272
    edited May 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1398761151207546885

    Jeremy Corbyn's allies are 'preparing to oust Sir Keir Starmer'

    Ian Lavery preparing Corbynites for a leadership challenge if Starmer loses Batley and Spen
    Wasn't that Gorgeous George's justification for fighting Batley and Spen? Deliver a Conservative victory* to oust Starmer and replace him with a true hero of the left, who can exceed Corbyn's magnificent and victorious minus 80 seat majority in December 2019.

    *All of Momentum's wizard wheezes seem to deliver Conservative victories. Just saying.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,804
    edited May 2021
    Average Tory lead, latest 10 polls = 11%.

    This includes the new surveys today. Almost no swing compared to the general election.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,993

    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1398761151207546885

    Jeremy Corbyn's allies are 'preparing to oust Sir Keir Starmer'

    Ian Lavery preparing Corbynites for a leadership challenge if Starmer loses Batley and Spen
    Wasn't that Gorgeous George's justification for fighting Batley and Spen? Deliver a Conservative victory to oust Starmer and replace him with a true hero of the left, who can exceed Corbyn's magnificent and victorious minus 80 seat majority in December 2019.

    P.S. All of Momentum's wizard wheezes seem to deliver Conservative wins. Just saying.
    Delivering Tory votes in two nations to advance the Socialist cause?
    Shall I be your pussy?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,272
    Andy_JS said:

    Average Tory lead, latest 10 polls = 11%.

    This includes the new surveys today. Almost no swing compared to the general election.

    Considering most of those polls were pre-Cummings, I am not sure what your point is. If the average is still 11 points in a month's time I think you have something to crow about.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,993
    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1398761151207546885

    Jeremy Corbyn's allies are 'preparing to oust Sir Keir Starmer'

    Ian Lavery preparing Corbynites for a leadership challenge if Starmer loses Batley and Spen
    How about preparing for a win in B+S?
    Honestly think the 2 wings of the Labour Party have but one true enemy. And it ain't the Tories.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,965
    edited May 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    Average Tory lead, latest 10 polls = 11%.

    This includes the new surveys today. Almost no swing compared to the general election.

    Considering most of those polls were pre-Cummings, I am not sure what your point is. If the average is still 11 points in a month's time I think you have something to crow about.
    What’s the average Tory lead in post Cummings polls?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,272
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1398761151207546885

    Jeremy Corbyn's allies are 'preparing to oust Sir Keir Starmer'

    Ian Lavery preparing Corbynites for a leadership challenge if Starmer loses Batley and Spen
    Wasn't that Gorgeous George's justification for fighting Batley and Spen? Deliver a Conservative victory to oust Starmer and replace him with a true hero of the left, who can exceed Corbyn's magnificent and victorious minus 80 seat majority in December 2019.

    P.S. All of Momentum's wizard wheezes seem to deliver Conservative wins. Just saying.
    Delivering Tory votes in two nations to advance the Socialist cause?
    Shall I be your pussy?
    I was alarmed by your statement, and then I remembered Rula Lenska.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,272
    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Average Tory lead, latest 10 polls = 11%.

    This includes the new surveys today. Almost no swing compared to the general election.

    Considering most of those polls were pre-Cummings, I am not sure what your point is. If the average is still 11 points in a month's time I think you have something to crow about.
    What’s the average Tory lead in post Cummings polls?
    It depends on the polling dates. Isn't the most recently polled, Tories +6?

    I am not sure the Cummings effect will be immediate, which is why I have suggested a month.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,965
    edited May 2021

    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Average Tory lead, latest 10 polls = 11%.

    This includes the new surveys today. Almost no swing compared to the general election.

    Considering most of those polls were pre-Cummings, I am not sure what your point is. If the average is still 11 points in a month's time I think you have something to crow about.
    What’s the average Tory lead in post Cummings polls?
    It depends on the polling dates. Isn't the most recently polled, Tories +6?

    I am not sure the Cummings effect will be immediate, which is why I have suggested a month.
    There have been 4 polls, all conducted 27-28 May and the average Tory lead is 11

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,272
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Average Tory lead, latest 10 polls = 11%.

    This includes the new surveys today. Almost no swing compared to the general election.

    Considering most of those polls were pre-Cummings, I am not sure what your point is. If the average is still 11 points in a month's time I think you have something to crow about.
    What’s the average Tory lead in post Cummings polls?
    It depends on the polling dates. Isn't the most recently polled, Tories +6?

    I am not sure the Cummings effect will be immediate, which is why I have suggested a month.
    There have been 4 polls, all conducted 27-28 May and the average Tory lead is 11
    Like I said. If the lead is anything like 11 points in a month, Cummings will have had no effect.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,965

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Average Tory lead, latest 10 polls = 11%.

    This includes the new surveys today. Almost no swing compared to the general election.

    Considering most of those polls were pre-Cummings, I am not sure what your point is. If the average is still 11 points in a month's time I think you have something to crow about.
    What’s the average Tory lead in post Cummings polls?
    It depends on the polling dates. Isn't the most recently polled, Tories +6?

    I am not sure the Cummings effect will be immediate, which is why I have suggested a month.
    There have been 4 polls, all conducted 27-28 May and the average Tory lead is 11
    Like I said. If the lead is anything like 11 points in a month, Cummings will have had no effect.
    You said you didn’t know what @AndyJS point was, as most of the 10 polls he cited for the average Tory lead of 11 were conducted pre Cummings. But the 4 conducted afterwards also have an average lead of 11
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,272
    edited May 2021
    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Average Tory lead, latest 10 polls = 11%.

    This includes the new surveys today. Almost no swing compared to the general election.

    Considering most of those polls were pre-Cummings, I am not sure what your point is. If the average is still 11 points in a month's time I think you have something to crow about.
    What’s the average Tory lead in post Cummings polls?
    It depends on the polling dates. Isn't the most recently polled, Tories +6?

    I am not sure the Cummings effect will be immediate, which is why I have suggested a month.
    There have been 4 polls, all conducted 27-28 May and the average Tory lead is 11
    Like I said. If the lead is anything like 11 points in a month, Cummings will have had no effect.
    You said you didn’t know what @AndyJS point was, as most of the 10 polls he cited for the average Tory lead of 11 were conducted pre Cummings. But the 4 conducted afterwards also have an average lead of 11
    And I am telling you, fairly plainly it would seem, that in my opinion it is too early to measure the effect of Cummings. I will say this for the third time, if the leads remain in double figures in a months time,Cummings will have had no effect. I don't think I can be any clearer.

    Come back to me in a month and laugh at me if Johnson has had no ill- effects from Cummings.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221
    edited May 2021
    FPT - in response to @Malmesbury who said:

    "I assume that plumbers have only a 50:50 chance of turning up on the day that they say, let alone the time, so it doesn't surprise me that diners might be no-shows.

    Sadly this is a nearly universal phenomenon - it relates to how people use communication. So it is entirely standard in recruitment, for example, that not getting the job means that no-one will ever call/email you. Just silence.

    One entertaining version of this is that when you hire people - and I mean at a serious job level, banks, high end iT etc - a certain percentage will simply not turn up on their designated first day. Or ever...."


    That has recently happened to my youngest. He got to the final round to get into a graduate training programme with a government agency. Prepared for it hard - a day long event by Zoom etc. Was told that everyone would be contacted to be told whether they were on the programme or not by a certain date. The day came and went. Nothing heard so he rang to find out what was happening and was told that it was all taking much longer than expected, not to worry, he would hear in due course. Weeks have passed. Nothing has been heard. He emailed them a couple of weeks back. No reply.

    It is so rude. So disheartening. He's 22 for heaven's sake. He has worked hard for his good degree from a prestigious university and graduated just before Covid struck. He has been working, applying for all sorts of jobs, has done an unpaid internship for which he got commended and commented on in the trade press etc. And these bastards can't even drum up the courtesy to give him an answer having promised they would do so.

    I am furious on his behalf. How dare people attack this generation for being lazy or entitled when people who should know better behave with such callous rudeness.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,965



    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Average Tory lead, latest 10 polls = 11%.

    This includes the new surveys today. Almost no swing compared to the general election.

    Considering most of those polls were pre-Cummings, I am not sure what your point is. If the average is still 11 points in a month's time I think you have something to crow about.
    What’s the average Tory lead in post Cummings polls?
    It depends on the polling dates. Isn't the most recently polled, Tories +6?

    I am not sure the Cummings effect will be immediate, which is why I have suggested a month.
    There have been 4 polls, all conducted 27-28 May and the average Tory lead is 11
    Like I said. If the lead is anything like 11 points in a month, Cummings will have had no effect.
    You said you didn’t know what @AndyJS point was, as most of the 10 polls he cited for the average Tory lead of 11 were conducted pre Cummings. But the 4 conducted afterwards also have an average lead of 11
    And I am telling you, fairly plainly it would seem, that in my opinion it is too early to measure the effect of Cummings. I will say this for the third time, if the leads remain in double figures in a months time,Cummings will have had no effect. I don't think I can be any clearer.

    Come back to me in a month and laugh at me if Johnson has had no ill- effects from Cummings.
    Why did you say “ Considering most of those polls were pre-Cummings, I am not sure what your point is” if it wasn’t to draw a line between pre and post? Even though they’re the same
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,019

    Here's another perspective - from today's Survation:

    Of the following people, do you believe that they do or do not generally tell the truth? (Net)
    Johnson: -18
    Cummings: -51
    Sunak: +18
    Gove: -22
    Hancock: -24


    I think there's one clear outlier there....

    Yet the main things that Cummings was saying are believed.
    There's nothing that Cummings said which we didn't know or didn't suspect already.

    So what's the big revelation ?

    That Boris is not a details man ? We knew that.
    That the pandemic plan was crap ? We knew that.
    That politicians don't like to upset people ? We knew that.
    That the government is crap at border control ? We knew that.
    The question used to be whether SKS or the Sunday papers could trawl through Cummings' seven hours of he said, she said and find something.

    But leaving that aside, if Cummings had sewn doubts about whether Boris was saving lives or seeing "his girlfriend" then does today's wedding play into that narrative? Marginal stuff, perhaps.
    Do we know who paid for the wedding yet?
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,352

    Apart from the political results Opinium is also interesting on extending lockdown - 43% want to extend, 34% want to relax in June as planned, 10% think we should have relaxed sooner. Delicately balanced but certainly no great pressure to get on with it at all costs, as some here have been suggesting.

    I think most people would be OK with an extension of a few weeks or longer if necessary. If it was extended for a short period and then extended again they'd find that irritating. If Johnson said "until 90% of willing adults have been vaccinated" or something like that, I think people would sigh but go along with it.

    Those who want an extension to the restrictions can stay in their own homes if they choose.

    I doubt they will though.
    I know quite a few who plan to do that, but it's not really the point. Few if any positively want longer restrictions, but most would favour them, reluctantly, if the Government advised that they were necessary to avoid a major resurgence. If there's a major risk, then our personal preferences are seen as irrelevant.

    I've switched personally to being relaxed about it all and go shopping, have meals out, etc. But if the Government advised that this was becoming risky, then I'd stop, and would want that to be a national policy. Just leaving it to our individual judgment would abdicate responsibility - few of us have enough information to make a solid judgment.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,272
    isam said:



    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Average Tory lead, latest 10 polls = 11%.

    This includes the new surveys today. Almost no swing compared to the general election.

    Considering most of those polls were pre-Cummings, I am not sure what your point is. If the average is still 11 points in a month's time I think you have something to crow about.
    What’s the average Tory lead in post Cummings polls?
    It depends on the polling dates. Isn't the most recently polled, Tories +6?

    I am not sure the Cummings effect will be immediate, which is why I have suggested a month.
    There have been 4 polls, all conducted 27-28 May and the average Tory lead is 11
    Like I said. If the lead is anything like 11 points in a month, Cummings will have had no effect.
    You said you didn’t know what @AndyJS point was, as most of the 10 polls he cited for the average Tory lead of 11 were conducted pre Cummings. But the 4 conducted afterwards also have an average lead of 11
    And I am telling you, fairly plainly it would seem, that in my opinion it is too early to measure the effect of Cummings. I will say this for the third time, if the leads remain in double figures in a months time,Cummings will have had no effect. I don't think I can be any clearer.

    Come back to me in a month and laugh at me if Johnson has had no ill- effects from Cummings.
    Why did you say “ Considering most of those polls were pre-Cummings, I am not sure what your point is” if it wasn’t to draw a line between pre and post? Even though they’re the same
    Why are you picking a fight with me? I am an old man, you'd easily beat the **** out of me.

    But before you do so, I will confirm 6 of the 10 were post Cummings, one of the 4, I believe was mid Cummings, and I am telling you, like I implied to @Andy_JS that if 11 points remains the differential in a month @Andy_JS has something to crow about.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,883

    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1398761151207546885

    Jeremy Corbyn's allies are 'preparing to oust Sir Keir Starmer'

    Ian Lavery preparing Corbynites for a leadership challenge if Starmer loses Batley and Spen
    Wasn't that Gorgeous George's justification for fighting Batley and Spen? Deliver a Conservative victory* to oust Starmer and replace him with a true hero of the left, who can exceed Corbyn's magnificent and victorious minus 80 seat majority in December 2019.

    *All of Momentum's wizard wheezes seem to deliver Conservative victories. Just saying.
    SKS is delivering Tory victories in areas where even Corbyn won.

    How shit must SKS be given Corbyn was apparently shockingly poor?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,965

    Apart from the political results Opinium is also interesting on extending lockdown - 43% want to extend, 34% want to relax in June as planned, 10% think we should have relaxed sooner. Delicately balanced but certainly no great pressure to get on with it at all costs, as some here have been suggesting.

    I think most people would be OK with an extension of a few weeks or longer if necessary. If it was extended for a short period and then extended again they'd find that irritating. If Johnson said "until 90% of willing adults have been vaccinated" or something like that, I think people would sigh but go along with it.

    Those who want an extension to the restrictions can stay in their own homes if they choose.

    I doubt they will though.
    I know quite a few who plan to do that, but it's not really the point. Few if any positively want longer restrictions, but most would favour them, reluctantly, if the Government advised that they were necessary to avoid a major resurgence. If there's a major risk, then our personal preferences are seen as irrelevant.

    I've switched personally to being relaxed about it all and go shopping, have meals out, etc. But if the Government advised that this was becoming risky, then I'd stop, and would want that to be a national policy. Just leaving it to our individual judgment would abdicate responsibility - few of us have enough information to make a solid judgment.
    Blimey. I can’t imagine ever thinking like that . It’s my life to live how I like, not to wait for other people to tell me
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,965

    isam said:



    isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Average Tory lead, latest 10 polls = 11%.

    This includes the new surveys today. Almost no swing compared to the general election.

    Considering most of those polls were pre-Cummings, I am not sure what your point is. If the average is still 11 points in a month's time I think you have something to crow about.
    What’s the average Tory lead in post Cummings polls?
    It depends on the polling dates. Isn't the most recently polled, Tories +6?

    I am not sure the Cummings effect will be immediate, which is why I have suggested a month.
    There have been 4 polls, all conducted 27-28 May and the average Tory lead is 11
    Like I said. If the lead is anything like 11 points in a month, Cummings will have had no effect.
    You said you didn’t know what @AndyJS point was, as most of the 10 polls he cited for the average Tory lead of 11 were conducted pre Cummings. But the 4 conducted afterwards also have an average lead of 11
    And I am telling you, fairly plainly it would seem, that in my opinion it is too early to measure the effect of Cummings. I will say this for the third time, if the leads remain in double figures in a months time,Cummings will have had no effect. I don't think I can be any clearer.

    Come back to me in a month and laugh at me if Johnson has had no ill- effects from Cummings.
    Why did you say “ Considering most of those polls were pre-Cummings, I am not sure what your point is” if it wasn’t to draw a line between pre and post? Even though they’re the same
    Why are you picking a fight with me? I am an old man, you'd easily beat the **** out of me.

    But before you do so, I will confirm 6 of the 10 were post Cummings, one of the 4, I believe was mid Cummings, and I am telling you, like I implied to @Andy_JS that if 11 points remains the differential in a month @Andy_JS has something to crow about.
    Just seemed a strange thing to say when the post and pre averages were both 11. I don’t want a fight!
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,272

    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1398761151207546885

    Jeremy Corbyn's allies are 'preparing to oust Sir Keir Starmer'

    Ian Lavery preparing Corbynites for a leadership challenge if Starmer loses Batley and Spen
    Wasn't that Gorgeous George's justification for fighting Batley and Spen? Deliver a Conservative victory* to oust Starmer and replace him with a true hero of the left, who can exceed Corbyn's magnificent and victorious minus 80 seat majority in December 2019.

    *All of Momentum's wizard wheezes seem to deliver Conservative victories. Just saying.
    SKS is delivering Tory victories in areas where even Corbyn won.

    How shit must SKS be given Corbyn was apparently shockingly poor?
    If he loses Delyn (if it happens) I'll concede to you, and we can have magnificent minus 100 seat Richard Burgon victories between now and the end of time.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,235
    Dura_Ace said:

    Here's another perspective - from today's Survation:

    Of the following people, do you believe that they do or do not generally tell the truth? (Net)
    Johnson: -18
    Cummings: -51
    Sunak: +18
    Gove: -22
    Hancock: -24


    I think there's one clear outlier there....

    Yet the main things that Cummings was saying are believed.
    There's nothing that Cummings said which we didn't know or didn't suspect already.

    So what's the big revelation ?

    That Boris is not a details man ? We knew that.
    That the pandemic plan was crap ? We knew that.
    That politicians don't like to upset people ? We knew that.
    That the government is crap at border control ? We knew that.
    The question used to be whether SKS or the Sunday papers could trawl through Cummings' seven hours of he said, she said and find something.

    But leaving that aside, if Cummings had sewn doubts about whether Boris was saving lives or seeing "his girlfriend" then does today's wedding play into that narrative? Marginal stuff, perhaps.
    Do we know who paid for the wedding yet?
    Does Boris know?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,272
    Dura_Ace said:

    Here's another perspective - from today's Survation:

    Of the following people, do you believe that they do or do not generally tell the truth? (Net)
    Johnson: -18
    Cummings: -51
    Sunak: +18
    Gove: -22
    Hancock: -24


    I think there's one clear outlier there....

    Yet the main things that Cummings was saying are believed.
    There's nothing that Cummings said which we didn't know or didn't suspect already.

    So what's the big revelation ?

    That Boris is not a details man ? We knew that.
    That the pandemic plan was crap ? We knew that.
    That politicians don't like to upset people ? We knew that.
    That the government is crap at border control ? We knew that.
    The question used to be whether SKS or the Sunday papers could trawl through Cummings' seven hours of he said, she said and find something.

    But leaving that aside, if Cummings had sewn doubts about whether Boris was saving lives or seeing "his girlfriend" then does today's wedding play into that narrative? Marginal stuff, perhaps.
    Do we know who paid for the wedding yet?
    I am hoping it is courtesy of Cadbury's Flake, like Anthea Turner's wedding to Grant Bovey.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,883

    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1398761151207546885

    Jeremy Corbyn's allies are 'preparing to oust Sir Keir Starmer'

    Ian Lavery preparing Corbynites for a leadership challenge if Starmer loses Batley and Spen
    Wasn't that Gorgeous George's justification for fighting Batley and Spen? Deliver a Conservative victory* to oust Starmer and replace him with a true hero of the left, who can exceed Corbyn's magnificent and victorious minus 80 seat majority in December 2019.

    *All of Momentum's wizard wheezes seem to deliver Conservative victories. Just saying.
    SKS is delivering Tory victories in areas where even Corbyn won.

    How shit must SKS be given Corbyn was apparently shockingly poor?
    If he loses Delyn (if it happens) I'll concede to you, and we can have magnificent minus 100 seat Richard Burgon victories between now and the end of time.
    Why are you obsessed with Burgon?

    He is even shittier than SKS.

    Why don't you want the King of the North to replace the man who is performing far worse than even Corbyn

    No charisma

    No policies

    No By Election wins

    No hope of improvement

    No point voting Labour
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,272

    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1398761151207546885

    Jeremy Corbyn's allies are 'preparing to oust Sir Keir Starmer'

    Ian Lavery preparing Corbynites for a leadership challenge if Starmer loses Batley and Spen
    Wasn't that Gorgeous George's justification for fighting Batley and Spen? Deliver a Conservative victory* to oust Starmer and replace him with a true hero of the left, who can exceed Corbyn's magnificent and victorious minus 80 seat majority in December 2019.

    *All of Momentum's wizard wheezes seem to deliver Conservative victories. Just saying.
    SKS is delivering Tory victories in areas where even Corbyn won.

    How shit must SKS be given Corbyn was apparently shockingly poor?
    If he loses Delyn (if it happens) I'll concede to you, and we can have magnificent minus 100 seat Richard Burgon victories between now and the end of time.
    Why are you obsessed with Burgon?

    He is even shittier than SKS.

    Why don't you want the King of the North to replace the man who is performing far worse than even Corbyn

    No charisma

    No policies

    No By Election wins

    No hope of improvement

    No point voting Labour
    Your last statement has summed up why Labour are permanently stuck up a gumtree. It is the "if my candidate isn't in charge, promoting unwinnable left wing idealogy I'd rather see Boris Johnson as Prime Minister" attitude.

    I am very disappointed in Starmer, but then, although I have grave doubts about Burnham's abilities, if electing him leader would see the back of a Johnson Government, I'd say give him a go. But it is unlikely we will be in a position where Burnham is even eligible to be Labour Leader before 2024, which means Johnson is in power until at least 2028, should Starmer or his interim replacement lose in 2024.

    So in the meantime you, and those from the Corbyn wing are desperate for Starmer to be humiliated at every opportunity. And be careful what you wish for, Burgon, and RLB will try for the leadership, and bearing in mind Corbyn got the gig once, anything is possible.

  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,804

    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1398761151207546885

    Jeremy Corbyn's allies are 'preparing to oust Sir Keir Starmer'

    Ian Lavery preparing Corbynites for a leadership challenge if Starmer loses Batley and Spen
    Wasn't that Gorgeous George's justification for fighting Batley and Spen? Deliver a Conservative victory* to oust Starmer and replace him with a true hero of the left, who can exceed Corbyn's magnificent and victorious minus 80 seat majority in December 2019.

    *All of Momentum's wizard wheezes seem to deliver Conservative victories. Just saying.
    SKS is delivering Tory victories in areas where even Corbyn won.

    How shit must SKS be given Corbyn was apparently shockingly poor?
    If he loses Delyn (if it happens) I'll concede to you, and we can have magnificent minus 100 seat Richard Burgon victories between now and the end of time.
    Why are you obsessed with Burgon?

    He is even shittier than SKS.

    Why don't you want the King of the North to replace the man who is performing far worse than even Corbyn

    No charisma

    No policies

    No By Election wins

    No hope of improvement

    No point voting Labour
    Your last statement has summed up why Labour are permanently stuck up a gumtree. It is the "if my candidate isn't in charge, promoting unwinnable left wing idealogy I'd rather see Boris Johnson as Prime Minister" attitude.

    I am very disappointed in Starmer, but then, although I have grave doubts about Burnham's abilities, if electing him leader would see the back of a Johnson Government, I'd say give him a go. But it is unlikely we will be in a position where Burnham is even eligible to be Labour Leader before 2024, which means Johnson is in power until at least 2028, should Starmer or his interim replacement lose in 2024.

    So in the meantime you, and those from the Corbyn wing are desperate for Starmer to be humiliated at every opportunity. And be careful what you wish for, Burgon, and RLB will try for the leadership, and bearing in mind Corbyn got the gig once, anything is possible.

    The public are going to get fed up with Johnson eventually. It's just that it's difficult to predict exactly when that will happen. Probably within 3 years or so.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,927
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1398761151207546885

    Jeremy Corbyn's allies are 'preparing to oust Sir Keir Starmer'

    Ian Lavery preparing Corbynites for a leadership challenge if Starmer loses Batley and Spen
    Wasn't that Gorgeous George's justification for fighting Batley and Spen? Deliver a Conservative victory* to oust Starmer and replace him with a true hero of the left, who can exceed Corbyn's magnificent and victorious minus 80 seat majority in December 2019.

    *All of Momentum's wizard wheezes seem to deliver Conservative victories. Just saying.
    SKS is delivering Tory victories in areas where even Corbyn won.

    How shit must SKS be given Corbyn was apparently shockingly poor?
    If he loses Delyn (if it happens) I'll concede to you, and we can have magnificent minus 100 seat Richard Burgon victories between now and the end of time.
    Why are you obsessed with Burgon?

    He is even shittier than SKS.

    Why don't you want the King of the North to replace the man who is performing far worse than even Corbyn

    No charisma

    No policies

    No By Election wins

    No hope of improvement

    No point voting Labour
    Your last statement has summed up why Labour are permanently stuck up a gumtree. It is the "if my candidate isn't in charge, promoting unwinnable left wing idealogy I'd rather see Boris Johnson as Prime Minister" attitude.

    I am very disappointed in Starmer, but then, although I have grave doubts about Burnham's abilities, if electing him leader would see the back of a Johnson Government, I'd say give him a go. But it is unlikely we will be in a position where Burnham is even eligible to be Labour Leader before 2024, which means Johnson is in power until at least 2028, should Starmer or his interim replacement lose in 2024.

    So in the meantime you, and those from the Corbyn wing are desperate for Starmer to be humiliated at every opportunity. And be careful what you wish for, Burgon, and RLB will try for the leadership, and bearing in mind Corbyn got the gig once, anything is possible.

    The public are going to get fed up with Johnson eventually. It's just that it's difficult to predict exactly when that will happen. Probably within 3 years or so.
    The question is, will the Labour Party be in a position to capitalise on this when it happens, or will the Tories re-invent themselves again while remaining in power, as happened in 2019 with the transition from Mrs May to Johnson?
  • Options
    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435


    The public are going to get fed up with Johnson eventually. It's just that it's difficult to predict exactly when that will happen. Probably within 3 years or so.
    The question is, will the Labour Party be in a position to capitalise on this when it happens, or will the Tories re-invent themselves again while remaining in power, as happened in 2019 with the transition from Mrs May to Johnson?

    The ability of the Tories to reinvent themselves since 2005 has been nothing short of astonishing - perhaps the greatest political evolution in our lifetimes.... Labour/LibDems etc need to learn bloody fast as it is the Blues most powerful attribute.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1398761151207546885

    Jeremy Corbyn's allies are 'preparing to oust Sir Keir Starmer'

    Ian Lavery preparing Corbynites for a leadership challenge if Starmer loses Batley and Spen
    Wasn't that Gorgeous George's justification for fighting Batley and Spen? Deliver a Conservative victory* to oust Starmer and replace him with a true hero of the left, who can exceed Corbyn's magnificent and victorious minus 80 seat majority in December 2019.

    *All of Momentum's wizard wheezes seem to deliver Conservative victories. Just saying.
    SKS is delivering Tory victories in areas where even Corbyn won.

    How shit must SKS be given Corbyn was apparently shockingly poor?
    If he loses Delyn (if it happens) I'll concede to you, and we can have magnificent minus 100 seat Richard Burgon victories between now and the end of time.
    Why are you obsessed with Burgon?

    He is even shittier than SKS.

    Why don't you want the King of the North to replace the man who is performing far worse than even Corbyn

    No charisma

    No policies

    No By Election wins

    No hope of improvement

    No point voting Labour
    Your last statement has summed up why Labour are permanently stuck up a gumtree. It is the "if my candidate isn't in charge, promoting unwinnable left wing idealogy I'd rather see Boris Johnson as Prime Minister" attitude.

    I am very disappointed in Starmer, but then, although I have grave doubts about Burnham's abilities, if electing him leader would see the back of a Johnson Government, I'd say give him a go. But it is unlikely we will be in a position where Burnham is even eligible to be Labour Leader before 2024, which means Johnson is in power until at least 2028, should Starmer or his interim replacement lose in 2024.

    So in the meantime you, and those from the Corbyn wing are desperate for Starmer to be humiliated at every opportunity. And be careful what you wish for, Burgon, and RLB will try for the leadership, and bearing in mind Corbyn got the gig once, anything is possible.

    The public are going to get fed up with Johnson eventually. It's just that it's difficult to predict exactly when that will happen. Probably within 3 years or so.
    Depends if his big projects to level up the Midlands and the North capture the public's mood. If so, then he can leave on a high, at a time of his choosing.

    His premiership was meant to be a transition from Brexit to these works. Covid royally buggered that up - and took much of the money too. The question now is: can the private sector still make them happen? If so, it will be a bigger shift from public to private works than even Cummings could have envisioned.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221
    Christ - the insomnia I seem to have developed in the last few weeks is becoming a bit of a bore now.
This discussion has been closed.