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Boris should start Scottish independence negotiations now – politicalbetting.com

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  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    tlg86 said:

    Tories down 2 and Lib Dems up 1 on Woking. Leaves the council precariously balanced:

    Con - 13
    Lib Dem - 12
    Lab - 3
    Ind - 2

    Unsurprisingly its the posher parts of the area that are going Lib Dem.

    Hmmm. The tories have put a hell of a lot of money into the town recently. Think we’ll see little in terms of progress with the dems ..
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    God I’m bored. I’ve run out of things to say about the locals, the mayoralty, Scotland. It’s ANOTHER grey wet day, but not even interestingly cold. My favourite marble dildo hangs listless in my hand. I’ve given up heroin and it’s too early to drink

    Pfffff

    Can you remember from your lurker days what year it was SeanT went to Namibia and suffered a bout of gin poisoning? Trying to date my introduction to the site, and that was one of the first things I read here.
    I remember those comments vividly. He nearly died in a hotel in the Namib desert. January 2009
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    God I’m bored. I’ve run out of things to say about the locals, the mayoralty, Scotland. It’s ANOTHER grey wet day, but not even interestingly cold. My favourite marble dildo hangs listless in my hand. I’ve given up heroin and it’s too early to drink

    Pfffff

    Can you remember from your lurker days what year it was SeanT went to Namibia and suffered a bout of gin poisoning? Trying to date my introduction to the site, and that was one of the first things I read here.
    I remember those comments vividly. He nearly died in a hotel in the Namib desert. January 2009
    Thank you. Thank God he was spared.

    I wish I was in Namibia now.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Leon said:

    God I’m bored. I’ve run out of things to say about the locals, the mayoralty, Scotland. It’s ANOTHER grey wet day, but not even interestingly cold. My favourite marble dildo hangs listless in my hand. I’ve given up heroin and it’s too early to drink

    Pfffff

    Gone half two at the weekend and to early to drink? are you mad man :wink:
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Carnyx said:

    The results are in from the two new unitaries in Northamptonshire, I've just observed.

    The mismanagement which caused the previous county council to be abolished and local government reorganised seems not to have hurt the Conservatives in either new authority. They have romped home.

    Elsewhere, the Conservatives have retained their dominant position in Devon, and created one in Cornwall by stripping the Liberal Democrats of most of their councillors. More evidence that the future of the latter party, if it has one, is likely to be built in the South East rather than the South West.

    Rinka is avenged!
    Happy memories of the Dog Lovers' Party.

    Edit: https://www.theoldie.co.uk/blog/auberon-waughs-dogged-campaign-against-jeremy-thorpe
    Were you an activist? Or just a dog lover!

    IIRC the courts banned Auberon Waugh's manifesto, as it referred to pending trial of Jeremy Thorpe.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    WRT NEV shares - the correct analysis is to compare like with like - so where were these figures in recent years? Well, in 2019, they showed a tie for LAB and CON at 28% each, but every leader has changed and 25 % went to others. Before that? 2018? Another tie. 2016? 32% 31%.

    Brilliant. You scour those entrails.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930

    One bet I'm definitely going to lose: £50 on Khan getting 50%+ in the 1st round.

    Silly bet.

    Im surprised how close it is there.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    I think the tories do need to be careful...i think all.these northern votes they are racking up are soft. If Labour actually talk about issues they care about in a way that doesn't accuse them of being thick racists, and eventually the Tories will have to turn the magic money tap off...I think they could easily return to Labour very quickly.

    While we see in places like Surrey many are pissed off with the Tories.and won't immediately return while Boris is in charge.

    At the moment Brexit and vaccine gives Boris the fair wind.

    I think that is exactly right. Boris has certainly created a winning 40% coalition of voters that is significantly different in composition to previous winning Tory coalitions.

    Like you, I suspect that holding on to those new voters in places like Hartlepool will be tough unless Brexit delivers something positive to them quite quickly.

    I also think that the Tories might discover that winning back former Tory-inclined remainers is not going to be easy at all.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,344
    alex_ said:

    malcolmg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It'll be easier for Johnson to refuse another referendum if the unionist parties have won an overall majority of votes, even if they haven't done so in terms of seats. At the moment they're on about 51.5% of the constituency vote.

    Agree

    If Unionist parties win more votes than separatist ones, then that's all Johnson will need.

    It's a good point, the SNP are basically relying (wholly) on some mathematical jiggery-pokery from the Greens in the list to get them over the line.

    They've come up short in both votes and seats.
    bollox, you raving halfwit the SNP does not equal independence support.
    Any comment on the Alba performance? In line with your predictions and expectations?
    Sounds like they will not do very well, given the fact that they were excluded from all MSM and any debates etc and only appeared 5 weeks ago it is not unexpected. Will not be going away though and they have MP's and councillors and so can build for next election.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Lol

    Brian rose still layable on betfair.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,408
    LD's gradually clawing back councillors.
    Now just -22.
    -16 in Cornwall alone. May have a chance of standing still.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,190
    Leon said:

    God I’m bored. I’ve run out of things to say about the locals, the mayoralty, Scotland. It’s ANOTHER grey wet day, but not even interestingly cold. My favourite marble dildo hangs listless in my hand. I’ve given up heroin and it’s too early to drink

    Pfffff

    No woke to fight?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Germany (2 days data) still motoring:

    https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/


  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    edited May 2021
    Mark Drakeford is HOT isn’t he? I’ve always respected him as a politician and a ‘canny operator’, but I’ve never really understood just what a sexy human being he is. There’s a sensual animality about him. Like a prowling tiger.

    As a heterosexual male who usually prefers younger women there aren’t many elderly male Welsh politicians I’d LOVE to get naked with, but La Drakeford?? Ffffffwoo. FETCH THE ICEPACK, I’M BURNING UP



  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,465
    kinabalu said:

    Hampshire's in... results are (drumroll) .. almost exactly the same as last time.

    In fact, I think the Lib Dems lost two seats.

    Oh well.

    Many scarpered when they heard you were coming onboard?
    It's only you guys, and my wife that knew.

    And the several thousand people that read the comments, I guess.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Coventry close as well - only 1k between them (it was ca. 4k last time around)
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    In London, it looks as if Shaun Bailey will lose by about 44/45 to 56/55, which is a more creditable performance than seemed likely.

    And would give the lie to the idea that London is lost to the blues in an ocean of woke liberalism yearning for the sunlit uphills of Angela von de Leydenland.
    These jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people do tend to be nonsense, don't they?
    Sadly for Labour proving only too true......
    That's right, Felix. Jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people are only accurate when made by Tories.
    You mean like the left description immortalised by tim of PBTories..
    Afore my time. Bit of an "acid wit" by all accounts.
    A very astute political punter, and in life after PB a withering critic of Corbyn and the Labour left.

    SeanT. and Plato could wind him up like a $5 watch, and did he bite.
    Really? So desperate were they to spite him that both of those posters had to resort to posting details of his real identity on this very site.
    IIRC - I was just a humble lurker - the great SeanT only got punchy with tim because Tim sort-of doxxed SeanT, referencing his statements on another site

    I miss them both. Titans, they were, we shall not see their like again. Now we are reduced to accountants like ‘kinabalu’. Sic transit Gloria Mundi
    My recollection is that SeanT got miffed because tim was taking the piss out of the size of his flat. But agreed - the pair of them are the Mozarts and Beethovens to today's Ed Sheerans.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    God I’m bored. I’ve run out of things to say about the locals, the mayoralty, Scotland. It’s ANOTHER grey wet day, but not even interestingly cold. My favourite marble dildo hangs listless in my hand. I’ve given up heroin and it’s too early to drink

    Pfffff

    No woke to fight?
    Give him time, he just woke up!
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    ping said:

    Lol

    Brian rose still layable on betfair.

    He’s leaving the late surge very late, but it’s coming.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195

    One bet I'm definitely going to lose: £50 on Khan getting 50%+ in the 1st round.

    Silly bet.

    Khan should be winning on 1st prefs there tbh.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,416
    edited May 2021
    The massacre continues in Cannock.

    Chadsmoor ward of Staffs CC has voted Tory for the first time ever.

    This is my ward. It was safe Labour.

    It wasn’t even close this time.

    ETA - the Tories have also picked up one of the outlying wards of Stoke that’s not in the UA, and Brereton and Ravenhill in Rugeley. Absolute massacre for Labour outside Stafford itself (one ward) and Burton (two). The only other Labour seat is Leek South.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    In London, it looks as if Shaun Bailey will lose by about 44/45 to 56/55, which is a more creditable performance than seemed likely.

    And would give the lie to the idea that London is lost to the blues in an ocean of woke liberalism yearning for the sunlit uphills of Angela von de Leydenland.
    These jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people do tend to be nonsense, don't they?
    Sadly for Labour proving only too true......
    That's right, Felix. Jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people are only accurate when made by Tories.
    You mean like the left description immortalised by tim of PBTories..
    Afore my time. Bit of an "acid wit" by all accounts.
    A very astute political punter, and in life after PB a withering critic of Corbyn and the Labour left.

    SeanT. and Plato could wind him up like a $5 watch, and did he bite.
    Really? So desperate were they to spite him that both of those posters had to resort to posting details of his real identity on this very site.
    IIRC - I was just a humble lurker - the great SeanT only got punchy with tim because Tim sort-of doxxed SeanT, referencing his statements on another site

    I miss them both. Titans, they were, we shall not see their like again. Now we are reduced to accountants like ‘kinabalu’. Sic transit Gloria Mundi
    The idea that tim was innocent in all that is laughable.

    I think you might be surprised to hear what Tim did to others - including those on the far left of his party.

    He really is no loss to this board
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    West of England Metro Mayor (lol, yes, it exists)

    Round 1
    Dan Norris (LAB): 84,434 (33.4%)
    Samuel Williams (CON): 72,415 (28.6%)
    Jerome Thomas (GRN): 54,919 (21.7%)
    Stephen Williams (LD): 41,193 (16.3%)

    This one looks like a Lab gain from Con
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373

    RobD said:

    Why is Labour performing well in Wales because of a vaccine boost but the Tories not so in England?

    Tories aren't performing well in England?
    No, I meant why is the Tory Party's good performance in England not explained away by the vaccines?
    I don't think anyone denies the Tories are getting a well-deserved vaccine boost.
    So are Labour in Wales and SNP in Scotland. Fact.

    Please don't counter me with Boris personally invented, bought and injected the vaccines again. I don't believe that. They have all had a polling boost, fact!
    But Boris's government procured the vaccines.

    If you don't believe that, then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales? 🤦‍♂️
    I am giving the Johnson Government credit for vaccine procurement on their watch. You try to turn that into Boris Johnson personally bidding and winning on a WHO version of eBay against the French and Germans which is patently untrue.

    I am conceding also that Johnson has had a vaccine polling bounce, you are countering that by saying you think he should have one in Wales and Scotland too. Well it hasn't happened like that, so I don't see the point you are making.

    The incumbents in England, Wales and Scotland have seen a vaccine bounce. What more is there to say? Except "bounce" implies stuff goes down as well as up, and that applies to all three countries of the UK that voted on Thursday.
    Boris's government did bid on and win the procurement race against the French, Germans and every other major government in the entire planet.

    If you don't think Boris's government procured the vaccines then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales?

    Did Drakeford set up his own vaccine taskforce? Were they procured by unicorns? Wishful thinking? Did they grown on roses?
    That's not the argument though is it? Johnson got a vaccine bounce, Drakeford got a vaccine bounce and Nippy got a vaccine bounce. Fact.

    You're whining on that Drakeford and Nippy don't deserve their bounce, because Boris personally bought the vaccines on their behalf. So what? My argument is it's a one off benefit that probably won't last the test of time for any of them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,030
    edited May 2021
    OllyT said:

    I think the tories do need to be careful...i think all.these northern votes they are racking up are soft. If Labour actually talk about issues they care about in a way that doesn't accuse them of being thick racists, and eventually the Tories will have to turn the magic money tap off...I think they could easily return to Labour very quickly.

    While we see in places like Surrey many are pissed off with the Tories.and won't immediately return while Boris is in charge.

    At the moment Brexit and vaccine gives Boris the fair wind.

    I think that is exactly right. Boris has certainly created a winning 40% coalition of voters that is significantly different in composition to previous winning Tory coalitions.

    Like you, I suspect that holding on to those new voters in places like Hartlepool will be tough unless Brexit delivers something positive to them quite quickly.

    I also think that the Tories might discover that winning back former Tory-inclined remainers is not going to be easy at all.
    One thing the Tories have going for them, that Labour don't. They have the likes of Dishy Rishi waiting in the wings.

    He is the perfect candidate for Tories to win back your Surrey remainer types. Plus detoxifies the lazy accusation that Boris is a racist, therefore all Tories are. And despite being uber wealthy, he does seem to speak human, unlike a Jacob Ress Mogg type Tory, thus doesn't instantly piss off Northern working class types.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,408
    Tories hold Tunbridge Wells.
    Surprisingly close though.

    Con 25 (-6)
    LD 12 (+4)
    Oth 6 (+1)
    Lab 5 (+1)

    Not what I would have guessed. Just goes to show.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195

    Coventry close as well - only 1k between them (it was ca. 4k last time around)

    Lol that is really good for Street
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Leon said:

    Mark Drakeford is HOT isn’t he? I’ve always respected him as a politician and a ‘canny operator’, but I’ve never really understood just what a sexy human being he is. There’s a sensual animality about him. Like a prowling tiger.

    As a heterosexual male who usually prefers younger women there aren’t many elderly male Welsh politicians I’d LOVE to get naked with, but La Drakeford?? Ffffffwoo. FETCH THE ICEPACK, I’M BURNING UP



    Would be just like you, to fawn all over a pretty boy like The Drake.

    Can still remember how you were so smitten with Sarah Palin!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Floater said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    In London, it looks as if Shaun Bailey will lose by about 44/45 to 56/55, which is a more creditable performance than seemed likely.

    And would give the lie to the idea that London is lost to the blues in an ocean of woke liberalism yearning for the sunlit uphills of Angela von de Leydenland.
    These jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people do tend to be nonsense, don't they?
    Sadly for Labour proving only too true......
    That's right, Felix. Jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people are only accurate when made by Tories.
    You mean like the left description immortalised by tim of PBTories..
    Afore my time. Bit of an "acid wit" by all accounts.
    A very astute political punter, and in life after PB a withering critic of Corbyn and the Labour left.

    SeanT. and Plato could wind him up like a $5 watch, and did he bite.
    Really? So desperate were they to spite him that both of those posters had to resort to posting details of his real identity on this very site.
    IIRC - I was just a humble lurker - the great SeanT only got punchy with tim because Tim sort-of doxxed SeanT, referencing his statements on another site

    I miss them both. Titans, they were, we shall not see their like again. Now we are reduced to accountants like ‘kinabalu’. Sic transit Gloria Mundi
    The idea that tim was innocent in all that is laughable.

    I think you might be surprised to hear what Tim did to others - including those on the far left of his party.

    He really is no loss to this board
    Disagree. No interest in what he did to whom, but he was very astute, very well informed and very, very funny.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    “Boris will refuse a referendum. As a result, support for independence will increase. This will make it politically impossible for Boris or any other PM to grant a referendum. Support for independence will increase further. Then at some point, there will be a fracture.”

    Dan Hodges still at it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,852

    Carnyx said:

    The results are in from the two new unitaries in Northamptonshire, I've just observed.

    The mismanagement which caused the previous county council to be abolished and local government reorganised seems not to have hurt the Conservatives in either new authority. They have romped home.

    Elsewhere, the Conservatives have retained their dominant position in Devon, and created one in Cornwall by stripping the Liberal Democrats of most of their councillors. More evidence that the future of the latter party, if it has one, is likely to be built in the South East rather than the South West.

    Rinka is avenged!
    Happy memories of the Dog Lovers' Party.

    Edit: https://www.theoldie.co.uk/blog/auberon-waughs-dogged-campaign-against-jeremy-thorpe
    Were you an activist? Or just a dog lover!

    IIRC the courts banned Auberon Waugh's manifesto, as it referred to pending trial of Jeremy Thorpe.
    No, just a young person reading the Eye at the time! The link is to Auberon Waugh's article (but rather confusingly presented as if Alexander Waugh's). Extract

    "Mr Carman, Thorpe’s barrister, applied to the Divisional Court to have me committed to prison and my manifesto banned, but the Lord Chief Justice threw it out. On appeal, Lord Denning reinstated the ban, dismissing my counsel’s arguments with contumely, and saying he had been reading Private Eye and was in no doubt of my intention to pervert the course of justice."
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,190
    Leon said:

    Mark Drakeford is HOT isn’t he? I’ve always respected him as a politician and a ‘canny operator’, but I’ve never really understood just what a sexy human being he is. There’s a sensual animality about him. Like a prowling tiger.

    As a heterosexual male who usually prefers younger women there aren’t many elderly male Welsh politicians I’d LOVE to get naked with, but La Drakeford?? Ffffffwoo. FETCH THE ICEPACK, I’M BURNING UP



    And that voice. Like being smothered in the warmest tenderest love.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Here’s ⁦@kevverage calling out the bullshit: Sturgeon isn’t prepared for a referendum, she promised she wouldn’t prioritise it & she would, on current polling, lose it. The pretence that she was ready for indyref2 dominated the last parliament. We can’t let it happen again

    https://twitter.com/blairmcdougall/status/1391019422215720961?s=20
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195
    RobD said:

    One bet I'm definitely going to lose: £50 on Khan getting 50%+ in the 1st round.

    Silly bet.

    Im surprised how close it is there.
    I dug into the weeds, Khan will win. But I did have to check
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Floater said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    In London, it looks as if Shaun Bailey will lose by about 44/45 to 56/55, which is a more creditable performance than seemed likely.

    And would give the lie to the idea that London is lost to the blues in an ocean of woke liberalism yearning for the sunlit uphills of Angela von de Leydenland.
    These jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people do tend to be nonsense, don't they?
    Sadly for Labour proving only too true......
    That's right, Felix. Jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people are only accurate when made by Tories.
    You mean like the left description immortalised by tim of PBTories..
    Afore my time. Bit of an "acid wit" by all accounts.
    A very astute political punter, and in life after PB a withering critic of Corbyn and the Labour left.

    SeanT. and Plato could wind him up like a $5 watch, and did he bite.
    Really? So desperate were they to spite him that both of those posters had to resort to posting details of his real identity on this very site.
    IIRC - I was just a humble lurker - the great SeanT only got punchy with tim because Tim sort-of doxxed SeanT, referencing his statements on another site

    I miss them both. Titans, they were, we shall not see their like again. Now we are reduced to accountants like ‘kinabalu’. Sic transit Gloria Mundi
    The idea that tim was innocent in all that is laughable.

    I think you might be surprised to hear what Tim did to others - including those on the far left of his party.

    He really is no loss to this board
    Yes. He did have quite a nasty side. He and Seant gave each other as good as they got. But tim could be a bully, here and on other sites. I heard the gory detail

    His wit and insight is still missed, however
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited May 2021
    If there are any data journalists lurking…

    What we really need is one of those maps with the little coloured arrows indicating the swing at ward/local level.

    I recall seeing such a map for the US elections on 538(?) or nyt and it was bloody brilliant.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Birmingham

    Mayor was
    Byrne 102,276
    Street 84,817

    PCC is
    Lab 111,852
    Con 63,681
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Liam Byrne/Labour not winning Wolvo is a bit surprising.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    tlg86 said:

    Tories down 2 and Lib Dems up 1 on Woking. Leaves the council precariously balanced:

    Con - 13
    Lib Dem - 12
    Lab - 3
    Ind - 2

    Unsurprisingly its the posher parts of the area that are going Lib Dem.

    Hmmm. The tories have put a hell of a lot of money into the town recently. Think we’ll see little in terms of progress with the dems ..
    Err, the Tories in Woking have borrowed a lot of money recently.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    RobD said:

    Why is Labour performing well in Wales because of a vaccine boost but the Tories not so in England?

    Tories aren't performing well in England?
    No, I meant why is the Tory Party's good performance in England not explained away by the vaccines?
    I don't think anyone denies the Tories are getting a well-deserved vaccine boost.
    So are Labour in Wales and SNP in Scotland. Fact.

    Please don't counter me with Boris personally invented, bought and injected the vaccines again. I don't believe that. They have all had a polling boost, fact!
    But Boris's government procured the vaccines.

    If you don't believe that, then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales? 🤦‍♂️
    I am giving the Johnson Government credit for vaccine procurement on their watch. You try to turn that into Boris Johnson personally bidding and winning on a WHO version of eBay against the French and Germans which is patently untrue.

    I am conceding also that Johnson has had a vaccine polling bounce, you are countering that by saying you think he should have one in Wales and Scotland too. Well it hasn't happened like that, so I don't see the point you are making.

    The incumbents in England, Wales and Scotland have seen a vaccine bounce. What more is there to say? Except "bounce" implies stuff goes down as well as up, and that applies to all three countries of the UK that voted on Thursday.
    Boris's government did bid on and win the procurement race against the French, Germans and every other major government in the entire planet.

    If you don't think Boris's government procured the vaccines then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales?

    Did Drakeford set up his own vaccine taskforce? Were they procured by unicorns? Wishful thinking? Did they grown on roses?
    That's not the argument though is it? Johnson got a vaccine bounce, Drakeford got a vaccine bounce and Nippy got a vaccine bounce. Fact.

    You're whining on that Drakeford and Nippy don't deserve their bounce, because Boris personally bought the vaccines on their behalf. So what? My argument is it's a one off benefit that probably won't last the test of time for any of them.
    I'm not whining, I'm saying Drakeford and Sturgeon are lucky to be getting reflected glory from Boris's great leadership.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    The results are in from the two new unitaries in Northamptonshire, I've just observed.

    The mismanagement which caused the previous county council to be abolished and local government reorganised seems not to have hurt the Conservatives in either new authority. They have romped home.

    Elsewhere, the Conservatives have retained their dominant position in Devon, and created one in Cornwall by stripping the Liberal Democrats of most of their councillors. More evidence that the future of the latter party, if it has one, is likely to be built in the South East rather than the South West.

    Rinka is avenged!
    Happy memories of the Dog Lovers' Party.

    Edit: https://www.theoldie.co.uk/blog/auberon-waughs-dogged-campaign-against-jeremy-thorpe
    Were you an activist? Or just a dog lover!

    IIRC the courts banned Auberon Waugh's manifesto, as it referred to pending trial of Jeremy Thorpe.
    No, just a young person reading the Eye at the time! The link is to Auberon Waugh's article (but rather confusingly presented as if Alexander Waugh's). Extract

    "Mr Carman, Thorpe’s barrister, applied to the Divisional Court to have me committed to prison and my manifesto banned, but the Lord Chief Justice threw it out. On appeal, Lord Denning reinstated the ban, dismissing my counsel’s arguments with contumely, and saying he had been reading Private Eye and was in no doubt of my intention to pervert the course of justice."
    Lord Denning made Judge Dred look like Oliver Wendell Holmes.

    His handing of the Profumo Affair in particular Stephen Ward was a SERIOUS parody if not perversion of justice.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    dixiedean said:

    Tories hold Tunbridge Wells.
    Surprisingly close though.

    Con 25 (-6)
    LD 12 (+4)
    Oth 6 (+1)
    Lab 5 (+1)

    Not what I would have guessed. Just goes to show.

    Nah, I’d expect the Lib Dems to do well there. Here’s their core vote in Woking:


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,852
    Leon said:

    I’m going to have a really long wank about Mark Drakeford!!!

    Oh, please.

    Away and buy yourself a Kindle copy of Dogging Sites in Brycheiniog and Sir Trefaldwyn and plan your next holiday while we wait for the Scottish list results to come out.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,190
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    In London, it looks as if Shaun Bailey will lose by about 44/45 to 56/55, which is a more creditable performance than seemed likely.

    And would give the lie to the idea that London is lost to the blues in an ocean of woke liberalism yearning for the sunlit uphills of Angela von de Leydenland.
    These jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people do tend to be nonsense, don't they?
    Sadly for Labour proving only too true......
    That's right, Felix. Jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people are only accurate when made by Tories.
    You mean like the left description immortalised by tim of PBTories..
    Afore my time. Bit of an "acid wit" by all accounts.
    A very astute political punter, and in life after PB a withering critic of Corbyn and the Labour left.

    SeanT. and Plato could wind him up like a $5 watch, and did he bite.
    Really? So desperate were they to spite him that both of those posters had to resort to posting details of his real identity on this very site.
    IIRC - I was just a humble lurker - the great SeanT only got punchy with tim because Tim sort-of doxxed SeanT, referencing his statements on another site

    I miss them both. Titans, they were, we shall not see their like again. Now we are reduced to accountants like ‘kinabalu’. Sic transit Gloria Mundi
    I blush! :blush:

    And I've done a "blush" emoticon too. Very pleased with that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586

    One bet I'm definitely going to lose: £50 on Khan getting 50%+ in the 1st round.

    Silly bet.

    I’m quite happily sitting on the other side of that.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    ping said:

    If there are any data journalists lurking…

    What we really need is one of those maps with the little coloured arrows indicating the swing at ward/local level.

    I recall seeing such a map for the US elections on 538(?) or nyt and it was bloody brilliant.

    Think it (or something very similar) was by New York Times, at county level.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    Scott_xP said:

    Elections fact for today: In 2015 David Cameron’s Conservatives won the UK election with a manifesto commitment to hold a Brexit Referendum. They went onto deliver on that pledge. They did so having won 36.9% of the vote.
    https://twitter.com/AndrewWilson/status/1390953859078569984

    Cameron's majority gave him the power to do so.

    Sturgeon's gives her the power to moan about it some more.
    I should think that the SNP would like nothing more than the optic of old-Etonian Tory Boris decreeing from London that he won't allow the Scottish people to have a vote on independence.

    I think too many Tories seem to lose sight of the fact that the power to do exactly as they please for 5 years with an 80 seat majority comes courtesy of our electoral system rather than courtesy of the voters.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    I can’t believe my honest and enlightening comment -

    ‘I’m going to have a really long wank about Mark Drakeford!’

    has been moderated?!?!

    Since when has it been wrong to candidly admire certain politicians?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Tories hold Tunbridge Wells.
    Surprisingly close though.

    Con 25 (-6)
    LD 12 (+4)
    Oth 6 (+1)
    Lab 5 (+1)

    Not what I would have guessed. Just goes to show.

    Nah, I’d expect the Lib Dems to do well there. Here’s their core vote in Woking:


    You mean the bloke living under the hedge?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992
    Apparently BoZo's cunning plan to avoid Indyref 2 is to say that it can't happen during Covid.

    Which in turn means he can never declare Covid over...
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    The results are in from the two new unitaries in Northamptonshire, I've just observed.

    The mismanagement which caused the previous county council to be abolished and local government reorganised seems not to have hurt the Conservatives in either new authority. They have romped home.

    Elsewhere, the Conservatives have retained their dominant position in Devon, and created one in Cornwall by stripping the Liberal Democrats of most of their councillors. More evidence that the future of the latter party, if it has one, is likely to be built in the South East rather than the South West.

    Rinka is avenged!
    Happy memories of the Dog Lovers' Party.

    Edit: https://www.theoldie.co.uk/blog/auberon-waughs-dogged-campaign-against-jeremy-thorpe
    Were you an activist? Or just a dog lover!

    IIRC the courts banned Auberon Waugh's manifesto, as it referred to pending trial of Jeremy Thorpe.
    No, just a young person reading the Eye at the time! The link is to Auberon Waugh's article (but rather confusingly presented as if Alexander Waugh's). Extract

    "Mr Carman, Thorpe’s barrister, applied to the Divisional Court to have me committed to prison and my manifesto banned, but the Lord Chief Justice threw it out. On appeal, Lord Denning reinstated the ban, dismissing my counsel’s arguments with contumely, and saying he had been reading Private Eye and was in no doubt of my intention to pervert the course of justice."
    Interesting how blatantly homophobic Private Eye's thing against Thorpe looks in the modern age.

    image
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373

    RobD said:

    Why is Labour performing well in Wales because of a vaccine boost but the Tories not so in England?

    Tories aren't performing well in England?
    No, I meant why is the Tory Party's good performance in England not explained away by the vaccines?
    I don't think anyone denies the Tories are getting a well-deserved vaccine boost.
    So are Labour in Wales and SNP in Scotland. Fact.

    Please don't counter me with Boris personally invented, bought and injected the vaccines again. I don't believe that. They have all had a polling boost, fact!
    But Boris's government procured the vaccines.

    If you don't believe that, then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales? 🤦‍♂️
    I am giving the Johnson Government credit for vaccine procurement on their watch. You try to turn that into Boris Johnson personally bidding and winning on a WHO version of eBay against the French and Germans which is patently untrue.

    I am conceding also that Johnson has had a vaccine polling bounce, you are countering that by saying you think he should have one in Wales and Scotland too. Well it hasn't happened like that, so I don't see the point you are making.

    The incumbents in England, Wales and Scotland have seen a vaccine bounce. What more is there to say? Except "bounce" implies stuff goes down as well as up, and that applies to all three countries of the UK that voted on Thursday.
    Boris's government did bid on and win the procurement race against the French, Germans and every other major government in the entire planet.

    If you don't think Boris's government procured the vaccines then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales?

    Did Drakeford set up his own vaccine taskforce? Were they procured by unicorns? Wishful thinking? Did they grown on roses?
    That's not the argument though is it? Johnson got a vaccine bounce, Drakeford got a vaccine bounce and Nippy got a vaccine bounce. Fact.

    You're whining on that Drakeford and Nippy don't deserve their bounce, because Boris personally bought the vaccines on their behalf. So what? My argument is it's a one off benefit that probably won't last the test of time for any of them.
    I'm not whining, I'm saying Drakeford and Sturgeon are lucky to be getting reflected glory from Boris's great leadership.
    Great leadership? Titter ye not!

    Boris was lucky to get his wallpaper too, but you weren't bitching about that.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Tories down 2 and Lib Dems up 1 on Woking. Leaves the council precariously balanced:

    Con - 13
    Lib Dem - 12
    Lab - 3
    Ind - 2

    Unsurprisingly its the posher parts of the area that are going Lib Dem.

    Hmmm. The tories have put a hell of a lot of money into the town recently. Think we’ll see little in terms of progress with the dems ..
    Err, the Tories in Woking have borrowed a lot of money recently.
    They have...but regardless good to see the investment, particularly with Victoria square. Wolsey refurb etc. Some of that it paying off particular with Gordon Ramsay setting up in town..
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,852
    edited May 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    Apparently BoZo's cunning plan to avoid Indyref 2 is to say that it can't happen during Covid.

    Which in turn means he can never declare Covid over...

    He's just following Ms Sturgeon's policy anyway. (As adumbrated again yesterday.)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,408
    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Tories hold Tunbridge Wells.
    Surprisingly close though.

    Con 25 (-6)
    LD 12 (+4)
    Oth 6 (+1)
    Lab 5 (+1)

    Not what I would have guessed. Just goes to show.

    Nah, I’d expect the Lib Dems to do well there. Here’s their core vote in Woking:


    Fair enough. Just musing on how lack of local knowledge leads to stereotyping of random places.
    Heard a lot say they couldn't really believe the results on Teesside.
    I would have picked Tunbridge Wells for 90 % Tory council. With a couple of LDs/Indies. Or even a Green maybe.
    That they have a Labour group at all comes as a shock!.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Tories down 2 and Lib Dems up 1 on Woking. Leaves the council precariously balanced:

    Con - 13
    Lib Dem - 12
    Lab - 3
    Ind - 2

    Unsurprisingly its the posher parts of the area that are going Lib Dem.

    Hmmm. The tories have put a hell of a lot of money into the town recently. Think we’ll see little in terms of progress with the dems ..
    Err, the Tories in Woking have borrowed a lot of money recently.
    They have...but regardless good to see the investment, particularly with Victoria square. Wolsey refurb etc. Some of that it paying off particular with Gordon Ramsay setting up in town..
    Didn't see that on the Tory leaflet. :lol:
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Leon said:

    Floater said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    In London, it looks as if Shaun Bailey will lose by about 44/45 to 56/55, which is a more creditable performance than seemed likely.

    And would give the lie to the idea that London is lost to the blues in an ocean of woke liberalism yearning for the sunlit uphills of Angela von de Leydenland.
    These jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people do tend to be nonsense, don't they?
    Sadly for Labour proving only too true......
    That's right, Felix. Jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people are only accurate when made by Tories.
    You mean like the left description immortalised by tim of PBTories..
    Afore my time. Bit of an "acid wit" by all accounts.
    A very astute political punter, and in life after PB a withering critic of Corbyn and the Labour left.

    SeanT. and Plato could wind him up like a $5 watch, and did he bite.
    Really? So desperate were they to spite him that both of those posters had to resort to posting details of his real identity on this very site.
    IIRC - I was just a humble lurker - the great SeanT only got punchy with tim because Tim sort-of doxxed SeanT, referencing his statements on another site

    I miss them both. Titans, they were, we shall not see their like again. Now we are reduced to accountants like ‘kinabalu’. Sic transit Gloria Mundi
    The idea that tim was innocent in all that is laughable.

    I think you might be surprised to hear what Tim did to others - including those on the far left of his party.

    He really is no loss to this board
    Yes. He did have quite a nasty side. He and Seant gave each other as good as they got. But tim could be a bully, here and on other sites. I heard the gory detail

    His wit and insight is still missed, however
    Not by me it isn't - he was a vile shit stain of an individual
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    OllyT said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Elections fact for today: In 2015 David Cameron’s Conservatives won the UK election with a manifesto commitment to hold a Brexit Referendum. They went onto deliver on that pledge. They did so having won 36.9% of the vote.
    https://twitter.com/AndrewWilson/status/1390953859078569984

    Cameron's majority gave him the power to do so.

    Sturgeon's gives her the power to moan about it some more.
    I should think that the SNP would like nothing more than the optic of old-Etonian Tory Boris decreeing from London that he won't allow the Scottish people to have a vote on independence.

    I think too many Tories seem to lose sight of the fact that the power to do exactly as they please for 5 years with an 80 seat majority comes courtesy of our electoral system rather than courtesy of the voters.
    It comes courtesy of the voters voting via the electoral system.

    Had any other party come close to the Tories they wouldn't have got that majority.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373
    Leon said:

    Mark Drakeford is HOT isn’t he? I’ve always respected him as a politician and a ‘canny operator’, but I’ve never really understood just what a sexy human being he is. There’s a sensual animality about him. Like a prowling tiger.

    As a heterosexual male who usually prefers younger women there aren’t many elderly male Welsh politicians I’d LOVE to get naked with, but La Drakeford?? Ffffffwoo. FETCH THE ICEPACK, I’M BURNING UP



    Wtff???

    Early on the absinthe today.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Apparently BoZo's cunning plan to avoid Indyref 2 is to say that it can't happen during Covid.

    Which in turn means he can never declare Covid over...

    He's just following Ms Sturgeon's policy anyway. (As adumbrated again yesterday.)
    Bozo can’t make Covid last 5 years (nor can La Nip). By 2023 they will both need new excuses. What?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,852
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Apparently BoZo's cunning plan to avoid Indyref 2 is to say that it can't happen during Covid.

    Which in turn means he can never declare Covid over...

    He's just following Ms Sturgeon's policy anyway. (As adumbrated again yesterday.)
    Bozo can’t make Covid last 5 years (nor can La Nip). By 2023 they will both need new excuses. What?
    Well, quite.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    Street’s ahead - by 55,000 first-preference votes
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    Floater said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    In London, it looks as if Shaun Bailey will lose by about 44/45 to 56/55, which is a more creditable performance than seemed likely.

    And would give the lie to the idea that London is lost to the blues in an ocean of woke liberalism yearning for the sunlit uphills of Angela von de Leydenland.
    These jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people do tend to be nonsense, don't they?
    Sadly for Labour proving only too true......
    That's right, Felix. Jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people are only accurate when made by Tories.
    You mean like the left description immortalised by tim of PBTories..
    Afore my time. Bit of an "acid wit" by all accounts.
    A very astute political punter, and in life after PB a withering critic of Corbyn and the Labour left.

    SeanT. and Plato could wind him up like a $5 watch, and did he bite.
    Really? So desperate were they to spite him that both of those posters had to resort to posting details of his real identity on this very site.
    IIRC - I was just a humble lurker - the great SeanT only got punchy with tim because Tim sort-of doxxed SeanT, referencing his statements on another site

    I miss them both. Titans, they were, we shall not see their like again. Now we are reduced to accountants like ‘kinabalu’. Sic transit Gloria Mundi
    The idea that tim was innocent in all that is laughable.

    I think you might be surprised to hear what Tim did to others - including those on the far left of his party.

    He really is no loss to this board
    Not saying he was innocent - just questioning the initial 'who wound up whom' proposition.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Here’s ⁦@kevverage calling out the bullshit: Sturgeon isn’t prepared for a referendum, she promised she wouldn’t prioritise it & she would, on current polling, lose it. The pretence that she was ready for indyref2 dominated the last parliament. We can’t let it happen again

    https://twitter.com/blairmcdougall/status/1391019422215720961?s=20

    I remember how after the 2011 Unionist claimed Salmond didn't want to have a referendum.

    It is fun to reminisce.

    Is McTernanPredicts about?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    West Mids:

    Street 49%
    Byrne 40%
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,729
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Owen Jones Rose
    @OwenJones84
    ·
    1h
    Labour figures are now saying that “tackling injustice and inequality” is the party’s mission. But that’s an abstraction to most voters: you need to talk about concrete things that matter to people’s lives - like housing, jobs, pay, services - and what you’ll do about them


    Blimey, Jones has said something that is a correct analysis.

    Labour should ban the words 'social justice', 'injustice', 'inequality' etc. from use by the party.

    I doubt many voters have a clue what the party means by them, but many will have a suspicion it involves loads of bonkers pc stuff and/or giving free money to people they think are undeserving.

    Labour should ban words like "inequality" and "injustice" because voters don't have a clue what they mean? I doubt voters really are that thick.

    But if they are, what do you suggest we talk to them about instead - their favourite shampoo?
    Owen Jones gave some non-shampoo examples. As I posted yesterday they should talk about pay and conditions - specifically the gig economy stuff, lack of security and so on.

    "You'll no longer be one pay cheque away from destitution and losing the roof over your head" is far more direct and promising than "we will tackle inequality wherever we see it & fight for social justice for all."

    And stop banging on about how it is terrible that some people are rich. My experience of voters is they don't really care and just want to know whether their own lives will steadily improve rather than go backwards and especially whether their kids will be alright. Most don't sit around in spasms of jealously and angst that there are rich people in London.

    As a related aside, Philip Gould always used to say one of Labour's problems was it never talked about people's aspirations.
    Ok, so I agree on the messaging. Make it real. And put forward policies targeted specifically in the material interests of "working people". Labour have tbf done this to varying degrees in every GE in my lifetime, particularly the last 2.

    But let's be clear, the notion of big new policies in the clear material interests of everybody - all winners, no losers - is in reality a nonsense. Politics is about choices.
    Don't agree. Who are/were the losers from the creation of the Open University?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    RobD said:

    Why is Labour performing well in Wales because of a vaccine boost but the Tories not so in England?

    Tories aren't performing well in England?
    No, I meant why is the Tory Party's good performance in England not explained away by the vaccines?
    I don't think anyone denies the Tories are getting a well-deserved vaccine boost.
    So are Labour in Wales and SNP in Scotland. Fact.

    Please don't counter me with Boris personally invented, bought and injected the vaccines again. I don't believe that. They have all had a polling boost, fact!
    But Boris's government procured the vaccines.

    If you don't believe that, then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales? 🤦‍♂️
    I am giving the Johnson Government credit for vaccine procurement on their watch. You try to turn that into Boris Johnson personally bidding and winning on a WHO version of eBay against the French and Germans which is patently untrue.

    I am conceding also that Johnson has had a vaccine polling bounce, you are countering that by saying you think he should have one in Wales and Scotland too. Well it hasn't happened like that, so I don't see the point you are making.

    The incumbents in England, Wales and Scotland have seen a vaccine bounce. What more is there to say? Except "bounce" implies stuff goes down as well as up, and that applies to all three countries of the UK that voted on Thursday.
    Boris's government did bid on and win the procurement race against the French, Germans and every other major government in the entire planet.

    If you don't think Boris's government procured the vaccines then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales?

    Did Drakeford set up his own vaccine taskforce? Were they procured by unicorns? Wishful thinking? Did they grown on roses?
    That's not the argument though is it? Johnson got a vaccine bounce, Drakeford got a vaccine bounce and Nippy got a vaccine bounce. Fact.

    You're whining on that Drakeford and Nippy don't deserve their bounce, because Boris personally bought the vaccines on their behalf. So what? My argument is it's a one off benefit that probably won't last the test of time for any of them.
    I'm not whining, I'm saying Drakeford and Sturgeon are lucky to be getting reflected glory from Boris's great leadership.
    Great leadership? Titter ye not!

    Boris was lucky to get his wallpaper too, but you weren't bitching about that.
    Yes great leadership. Procuring the vaccines before any other major nation in the planet during a global pandemic was fantastic leadership.

    I couldn't care less about wallpaper so long as I'm not the one paying for it. Blair charging £650k of wallpaper to the taxpayer was a story, Boris getting his privately paid for is not.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164


    Street ahead!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2021
    Street 299,318 (49%)
    Byrne 244,009 (40%)
    Greens 35,559
    Lib Dems 21,836
    Reform 13,568
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,408
    edited May 2021
    Rumours (via Jen Williams at MEN) that Burnham might have taken c.70% of first preferences.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    LOL

    https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1390701939340500993

    Btw, I know you're all delighted about woke Labour getting trounced (again) but the cultural assault won't stop. They will double down. They always do.

    So remember, there's an infinite number of genders, you're all racist and Britain is the worst country in the world.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,852
    Ballot Box Scotland
    @BallotBoxScot
    Replying to
    @BallotBoxScot
    Dunfermline (Mid & Fife) Constituency Vote:

    SNP ~ 20048 (49%, +5.6)
    Labour ~ 11384 (27.8%, -1.7)
    Conservative ~ 6314 (15.4%, -2.2)
    Lib Dem ~ 3196 (7.8%, -1.8)

    #SP21 #BBS21 http://ballotbox.scot
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    Rumours Burnham might have taken 70% of first preferences.

    Only 70%?

    Thought the King in the North would get more.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,852
    Ballot Box Scotland
    @BallotBoxScot
    ·
    10m
    Almond Valley (Lothian) Constituency Vote:

    SNP ~ 22675 (54.3%, +1.3)
    Labour ~ 10545 (25.2%, -3.7)
    Conservative ~ 6952 (16.6%, +1.4)
    Lib Dem ~ 1601 (3.8%, +0.9)

    #SP21 #BBS21 http://ballotbox.scot
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    RobD said:

    Why is Labour performing well in Wales because of a vaccine boost but the Tories not so in England?

    Tories aren't performing well in England?
    No, I meant why is the Tory Party's good performance in England not explained away by the vaccines?
    I don't think anyone denies the Tories are getting a well-deserved vaccine boost.
    So are Labour in Wales and SNP in Scotland. Fact.

    Please don't counter me with Boris personally invented, bought and injected the vaccines again. I don't believe that. They have all had a polling boost, fact!
    But Boris's government procured the vaccines.

    If you don't believe that, then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales? 🤦‍♂️
    I am giving the Johnson Government credit for vaccine procurement on their watch. You try to turn that into Boris Johnson personally bidding and winning on a WHO version of eBay against the French and Germans which is patently untrue.

    I am conceding also that Johnson has had a vaccine polling bounce, you are countering that by saying you think he should have one in Wales and Scotland too. Well it hasn't happened like that, so I don't see the point you are making.

    The incumbents in England, Wales and Scotland have seen a vaccine bounce. What more is there to say? Except "bounce" implies stuff goes down as well as up, and that applies to all three countries of the UK that voted on Thursday.
    Boris's government did bid on and win the procurement race against the French, Germans and every other major government in the entire planet.

    If you don't think Boris's government procured the vaccines then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales?

    Did Drakeford set up his own vaccine taskforce? Were they procured by unicorns? Wishful thinking? Did they grown on roses?
    That's not the argument though is it? Johnson got a vaccine bounce, Drakeford got a vaccine bounce and Nippy got a vaccine bounce. Fact.

    You're whining on that Drakeford and Nippy don't deserve their bounce, because Boris personally bought the vaccines on their behalf. So what? My argument is it's a one off benefit that probably won't last the test of time for any of them.
    I'm not whining, I'm saying Drakeford and Sturgeon are lucky to be getting reflected glory from Boris's great leadership.
    Great leadership? Titter ye not!

    Boris was lucky to get his wallpaper too, but you weren't bitching about that.
    Yes great leadership. Procuring the vaccines before any other major nation in the planet during a global pandemic was fantastic leadership.

    I couldn't care less about wallpaper so long as I'm not the one paying for it. Blair charging £650k of wallpaper to the taxpayer was a story, Boris getting his privately paid for is not.
    Would it be a story IF if those who paid for Carrie's decorating ended up with some nice contracts and/or other sweet deals in return for their investment?

    That is, "good graft" as famously defined by the Sage of Tammany Hall, George Washington Plunkett?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Plunkitt
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,852
    Ballot Box Scotland
    @BallotBoxScot
    ·
    18m
    Mid Fife & Glenrothes (Mid & Fife) Constituency Vote:

    SNP ~ 18115 (55.4%, +1)
    Labour ~ 7881 (24.1%, -1.4)
    Conservative ~ 4500 (13.8%, -1.7)
    Lib Dem ~ 1789 (5.5%, +1)
    Family Party ~ 385 (1.2%, +1.2)

    #SP21 #BBS21 http://ballotbox.scot
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Don't think Khan v Bailey is gonna beat Street v Byrne!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    kinabalu said:

    felix said:

    Sean_F said:

    In London, it looks as if Shaun Bailey will lose by about 44/45 to 56/55, which is a more creditable performance than seemed likely.

    And would give the lie to the idea that London is lost to the blues in an ocean of woke liberalism yearning for the sunlit uphills of Angela von de Leydenland.
    These jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people do tend to be nonsense, don't they?
    Sadly for Labour proving only too true......
    That's right, Felix. Jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people are only accurate when made by Tories.
    You mean like the left description immortalised by tim of PBTories..
    Afore my time. Bit of an "acid wit" by all accounts.
    A very astute political punter, and in life after PB a withering critic of Corbyn and the Labour left.

    SeanT. and Plato could wind him up like a $5 watch, and did he bite.
    Really? So desperate were they to spite him that both of those posters had to resort to posting details of his real identity on this very site.
    IIRC - I was just a humble lurker - the great SeanT only got punchy with tim because Tim sort-of doxxed SeanT, referencing his statements on another site

    I miss them both. Titans, they were, we shall not see their like again. Now we are reduced to accountants like ‘kinabalu’. Sic transit Gloria Mundi
    The idea that tim was innocent in all that is laughable.

    I think you might be surprised to hear what Tim did to others - including those on the far left of his party.

    He really is no loss to this board
    Not saying he was innocent - just questioning the initial 'who wound up whom' proposition.
    He was vile to people all the time - no way was he just responding after being attacked.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,852
    Ballot Box Scotland
    @BallotBoxScot
    ·
    31m
    Glasgow Provan Constituency Vote:

    SNP ~ 15913 (52.9%, -1.7)
    Labour ~ 8683 (28.9%, -5.8)
    Conservative ~ 2687 (8.9%, +0.4)
    Green ~ 2366 (7.9%, +7.9)
    Lib Dem ~ 421 (1.4%, -0.8)

    #SP21 #BBS21 http://ballotbox.scot
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,852
    And this - they really are all over the place.
    allot Box Scotland
    @BallotBoxScot
    ·
    24m
    Carrick etc (South) Constituency Vote:

    SNP ~ 15240 (42.8%, -3.6)
    Conservative ~ 10903 (30.6%, +6.4)
    Labour ~ 8604 (24.2%, -3.3)
    Lib Dem ~ 875 (2.5%, +0.4)

    #SP21 #BBS21 http://ballotbox.scot
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,460
    Carnyx said:

    And this - they really are all over the place.
    allot Box Scotland
    @BallotBoxScot
    ·
    24m
    Carrick etc (South) Constituency Vote:

    SNP ~ 15240 (42.8%, -3.6)
    Conservative ~ 10903 (30.6%, +6.4)
    Labour ~ 8604 (24.2%, -3.3)
    Lib Dem ~ 875 (2.5%, +0.4)

    #SP21 #BBS21 http://ballotbox.scot

    Suggests SNP have no chance in Galloway?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    Apparently Labour have been wiped out in both Cannock Chase and Tamworth, both seats that Blair won easily 3 times in 1997, 2001 and 2005.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    Leon said:

    Mark Drakeford is HOT isn’t he? I’ve always respected him as a politician and a ‘canny operator’, but I’ve never really understood just what a sexy human being he is. There’s a sensual animality about him. Like a prowling tiger.

    As a heterosexual male who usually prefers younger women there aren’t many elderly male Welsh politicians I’d LOVE to get naked with, but La Drakeford?? Ffffffwoo. FETCH THE ICEPACK, I’M BURNING UP



    Whenever I see another SMOULDERING picture of Welsh Labour Party leader Mark Drakeford - and, truth be told, I’ve never seen an UNsexy photo of him - I always hear the phrase “Ooooh, tromboning” in my head. Like some maddening sexual mantra

    Am I alone? I doubt it. I’d wager half the country has an erotomaniac response to him, it’s just that so many partisan observers are unable to admit it
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Carnyx said:

    And this - they really are all over the place.
    allot Box Scotland
    @BallotBoxScot
    ·
    24m
    Carrick etc (South) Constituency Vote:

    SNP ~ 15240 (42.8%, -3.6)
    Conservative ~ 10903 (30.6%, +6.4)
    Labour ~ 8604 (24.2%, -3.3)
    Lib Dem ~ 875 (2.5%, +0.4)

    #SP21 #BBS21 http://ballotbox.scot

    Does this not reflect the 'relative' Tory strength as you near the border?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992
    Leon said:

    Whenever I see another SMOULDERING picture of Welsh Labour Party leader Mark Drakeford - and, truth be told, I’ve never seen an UNsexy photo of him - I always hear the phrase “Ooooh, tromboning” in my head. Like some maddening sexual mantra

    Am I alone? I doubt it. I’d wager half the country has an erotomaniac response to him, it’s just that so many partisan observers are unable to admit it

    What does your wife think?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    edited May 2021
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Apparently BoZo's cunning plan to avoid Indyref 2 is to say that it can't happen during Covid.

    Which in turn means he can never declare Covid over...

    He's just following Ms Sturgeon's policy anyway. (As adumbrated again yesterday.)
    Bozo can’t make Covid last 5 years (nor can La Nip). By 2023 they will both need new excuses. What?
    I think a general election is quite likely in 2023 (Boris won't wait the full five years to May 2024) so I'd imagine 2023 will be a general election year - would probably kick the can to 2024 or 2025. ;)
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Just noticed on the London page that Bailey has moved level with Khan in B & C.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    RobD said:

    Why is Labour performing well in Wales because of a vaccine boost but the Tories not so in England?

    Tories aren't performing well in England?
    No, I meant why is the Tory Party's good performance in England not explained away by the vaccines?
    I don't think anyone denies the Tories are getting a well-deserved vaccine boost.
    So are Labour in Wales and SNP in Scotland. Fact.

    Please don't counter me with Boris personally invented, bought and injected the vaccines again. I don't believe that. They have all had a polling boost, fact!
    But Boris's government procured the vaccines.

    If you don't believe that, then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales? 🤦‍♂️
    I am giving the Johnson Government credit for vaccine procurement on their watch. You try to turn that into Boris Johnson personally bidding and winning on a WHO version of eBay against the French and Germans which is patently untrue.

    I am conceding also that Johnson has had a vaccine polling bounce, you are countering that by saying you think he should have one in Wales and Scotland too. Well it hasn't happened like that, so I don't see the point you are making.

    The incumbents in England, Wales and Scotland have seen a vaccine bounce. What more is there to say? Except "bounce" implies stuff goes down as well as up, and that applies to all three countries of the UK that voted on Thursday.
    Boris's government did bid on and win the procurement race against the French, Germans and every other major government in the entire planet.

    If you don't think Boris's government procured the vaccines then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales?

    Did Drakeford set up his own vaccine taskforce? Were they procured by unicorns? Wishful thinking? Did they grown on roses?
    That's not the argument though is it? Johnson got a vaccine bounce, Drakeford got a vaccine bounce and Nippy got a vaccine bounce. Fact.

    You're whining on that Drakeford and Nippy don't deserve their bounce, because Boris personally bought the vaccines on their behalf. So what? My argument is it's a one off benefit that probably won't last the test of time for any of them.
    I'm not whining, I'm saying Drakeford and Sturgeon are lucky to be getting reflected glory from Boris's great leadership.
    Great leadership? Titter ye not!

    Boris was lucky to get his wallpaper too, but you weren't bitching about that.
    Yes great leadership. Procuring the vaccines before any other major nation in the planet during a global pandemic was fantastic leadership.

    I couldn't care less about wallpaper so long as I'm not the one paying for it. Blair charging £650k of wallpaper to the taxpayer was a story, Boris getting his privately paid for is not.
    Would it be a story IF if those who paid for Carrie's decorating ended up with some nice contracts and/or other sweet deals in return for their investment?

    That is, "good graft" as famously defined by the Sage of Tammany Hall, George Washington Plunkett?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Plunkitt
    Yes, so talk about it then if that happens.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,460

    RobD said:

    Why is Labour performing well in Wales because of a vaccine boost but the Tories not so in England?

    Tories aren't performing well in England?
    No, I meant why is the Tory Party's good performance in England not explained away by the vaccines?
    I don't think anyone denies the Tories are getting a well-deserved vaccine boost.
    So are Labour in Wales and SNP in Scotland. Fact.

    Please don't counter me with Boris personally invented, bought and injected the vaccines again. I don't believe that. They have all had a polling boost, fact!
    But Boris's government procured the vaccines.

    If you don't believe that, then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales? 🤦‍♂️
    I am giving the Johnson Government credit for vaccine procurement on their watch. You try to turn that into Boris Johnson personally bidding and winning on a WHO version of eBay against the French and Germans which is patently untrue.

    I am conceding also that Johnson has had a vaccine polling bounce, you are countering that by saying you think he should have one in Wales and Scotland too. Well it hasn't happened like that, so I don't see the point you are making.

    The incumbents in England, Wales and Scotland have seen a vaccine bounce. What more is there to say? Except "bounce" implies stuff goes down as well as up, and that applies to all three countries of the UK that voted on Thursday.
    Boris's government did bid on and win the procurement race against the French, Germans and every other major government in the entire planet.

    If you don't think Boris's government procured the vaccines then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales?

    Did Drakeford set up his own vaccine taskforce? Were they procured by unicorns? Wishful thinking? Did they grown on roses?
    That's not the argument though is it? Johnson got a vaccine bounce, Drakeford got a vaccine bounce and Nippy got a vaccine bounce. Fact.

    You're whining on that Drakeford and Nippy don't deserve their bounce, because Boris personally bought the vaccines on their behalf. So what? My argument is it's a one off benefit that probably won't last the test of time for any of them.
    I'm not whining, I'm saying Drakeford and Sturgeon are lucky to be getting reflected glory from Boris's great leadership.
    Great leadership? Titter ye not!

    Boris was lucky to get his wallpaper too, but you weren't bitching about that.
    Yes great leadership. Procuring the vaccines before any other major nation in the planet during a global pandemic was fantastic leadership.

    I couldn't care less about wallpaper so long as I'm not the one paying for it. Blair charging £650k of wallpaper to the taxpayer was a story, Boris getting his privately paid for is not.
    Would it be a story IF if those who paid for Carrie's decorating ended up with some nice contracts and/or other sweet deals in return for their investment?

    That is, "good graft" as famously defined by the Sage of Tammany Hall, George Washington Plunkett?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Plunkitt
    Yes, so talk about it then if that happens.
    Let's be honest mate, you'd just dismiss it as a "who cares" even then.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Mark Drakeford is HOT isn’t he? I’ve always respected him as a politician and a ‘canny operator’, but I’ve never really understood just what a sexy human being he is. There’s a sensual animality about him. Like a prowling tiger.

    As a heterosexual male who usually prefers younger women there aren’t many elderly male Welsh politicians I’d LOVE to get naked with, but La Drakeford?? Ffffffwoo. FETCH THE ICEPACK, I’M BURNING UP



    Whenever I see another SMOULDERING picture of Welsh Labour Party leader Mark Drakeford - and, truth be told, I’ve never seen an UNsexy photo of him - I always hear the phrase “Ooooh, tromboning” in my head. Like some maddening sexual mantra

    Am I alone? I doubt it. I’d wager half the country has an erotomaniac response to him, it’s just that so many partisan observers are unable to admit it
    Magic mushrooms ....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    edited May 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Whenever I see another SMOULDERING picture of Welsh Labour Party leader Mark Drakeford - and, truth be told, I’ve never seen an UNsexy photo of him - I always hear the phrase “Ooooh, tromboning” in my head. Like some maddening sexual mantra

    Am I alone? I doubt it. I’d wager half the country has an erotomaniac response to him, it’s just that so many partisan observers are unable to admit it

    What does your wife think?
    She wants me, her and the Drakeford to have a threesome. I’ve told her she’s likely to be disappointed, a guy like that must get these desperate sexual requests all the time. But I’ve promised her I’ll try my best to organize it

    Any advice welcome. Have any other PBers had a FMM threesome with an elderly but very senior male figure in Welsh politics?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    RobD said:

    Why is Labour performing well in Wales because of a vaccine boost but the Tories not so in England?

    Tories aren't performing well in England?
    No, I meant why is the Tory Party's good performance in England not explained away by the vaccines?
    I don't think anyone denies the Tories are getting a well-deserved vaccine boost.
    So are Labour in Wales and SNP in Scotland. Fact.

    Please don't counter me with Boris personally invented, bought and injected the vaccines again. I don't believe that. They have all had a polling boost, fact!
    But Boris's government procured the vaccines.

    If you don't believe that, then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales? 🤦‍♂️
    I am giving the Johnson Government credit for vaccine procurement on their watch. You try to turn that into Boris Johnson personally bidding and winning on a WHO version of eBay against the French and Germans which is patently untrue.

    I am conceding also that Johnson has had a vaccine polling bounce, you are countering that by saying you think he should have one in Wales and Scotland too. Well it hasn't happened like that, so I don't see the point you are making.

    The incumbents in England, Wales and Scotland have seen a vaccine bounce. What more is there to say? Except "bounce" implies stuff goes down as well as up, and that applies to all three countries of the UK that voted on Thursday.
    Boris's government did bid on and win the procurement race against the French, Germans and every other major government in the entire planet.

    If you don't think Boris's government procured the vaccines then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales?

    Did Drakeford set up his own vaccine taskforce? Were they procured by unicorns? Wishful thinking? Did they grown on roses?
    That's not the argument though is it? Johnson got a vaccine bounce, Drakeford got a vaccine bounce and Nippy got a vaccine bounce. Fact.

    You're whining on that Drakeford and Nippy don't deserve their bounce, because Boris personally bought the vaccines on their behalf. So what? My argument is it's a one off benefit that probably won't last the test of time for any of them.
    I'm not whining, I'm saying Drakeford and Sturgeon are lucky to be getting reflected glory from Boris's great leadership.
    Great leadership? Titter ye not!

    Boris was lucky to get his wallpaper too, but you weren't bitching about that.
    Yes great leadership. Procuring the vaccines before any other major nation in the planet during a global pandemic was fantastic leadership.

    I couldn't care less about wallpaper so long as I'm not the one paying for it. Blair charging £650k of wallpaper to the taxpayer was a story, Boris getting his privately paid for is not.
    Would it be a story IF if those who paid for Carrie's decorating ended up with some nice contracts and/or other sweet deals in return for their investment?

    That is, "good graft" as famously defined by the Sage of Tammany Hall, George Washington Plunkett?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Plunkitt
    Yes, so talk about it then if that happens.
    Fair enough. Though suspect it's when rather than if.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Apparently BoZo's cunning plan to avoid Indyref 2 is to say that it can't happen during Covid.

    Which in turn means he can never declare Covid over...

    He's just following Ms Sturgeon's policy anyway. (As adumbrated again yesterday.)
    Bozo can’t make Covid last 5 years (nor can La Nip). By 2023 they will both need new excuses. What?
    Bring the GE forward a year.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    Labour and the Drake have been getting the media plaudits for their performance in the Welsh Senedd election, equalling their record, but it’s worth noting that the Tories’ 16-seat tally is an all-time high.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,992
    Sky's Adam Boulton asks Alex Salmond if he will continue to lead Alba, and if he is "finished" as a political force.

    Mr Salmond says that decision be made at the party conference, but confirms Alba plans to stand in next year's local elections.

    Live: https://trib.al/R0HMjtL https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1391037108698206211/video/1
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,408
    Hartlepool Council. The Tories must be bitterly regretting only one candidate for each ward in an all up election. They could have swept the board.

    Con 13 (+10)
    Lab 11 (-3)
    Others 12 (-7)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    Latest councillor changes:

    Con +213
    Lab -241
    LD -21
    Green +60

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c481drqqzv7t/england-local-elections-2021
  • dixiedean said:

    Rumours (via Jen Williams at MEN) that Burnham might have taken c.70% of first preferences.

    *clears throat*

    Er, I did say he'd walk it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195
    felix said:

    Just noticed on the London page that Bailey has moved level with Khan in B & C.

    Bailey will win B and C
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    dixiedean said:

    Rumours (via Jen Williams at MEN) that Burnham might have taken c.70% of first preferences.

    The City of Manchester yet again a Tory free zone -
This discussion has been closed.