Maybe Liam Byrne was onto something when he said the rumours about him losing were bollocks?
I would expect Labour candidate to win Birmingham, Sandwell, Wolverhampton and Coventry comfortably and to lose Dudley, Walsall and Solihull comfortably. Wolverhampton and Dudley are probably going to be the closest.
Street has polled ca. 10k more in Birmingham than he did in 2017.
Judging by the council results, Conservatives will lead in Dudley by a wide margin. Labour only won something like 3 wards out of 24
Byrne only wins the Brum bit of the West Mids by 17.5k - well down on Lab margin of victory last time. Given the big Tory surge will be in the Black Country, this is more evidence that a Street landslide is on the way. https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1391011867363975173
To be fair, making any gains at all is a fantastic result for Labour...
Given that less than a month ago 6-7 losses seemed a reasonable prediction, it certainly is.
Some were predicting Drakeford was going to lose his seat.
No doubt Welsh Labour getting its best result ever though is somehow "bad" because the Tories said so
It equals its best ever results - 2003 and 2011.
ETA - it should be noted the D’Hondt system is carefully designed to make it difficult for one party to get a majority, and indeed nobody has ever won a majority in Wales.
But by its nature, it makes it almost impossible for Labour to fall significantly below 25 seats, even if it only gets 30% of the vote.
In London, it looks as if Shaun Bailey will lose by about 44/45 to 56/55, which is a more creditable performance than seemed likely.
And would give the lie to the idea that London is lost to the blues in an ocean of woke liberalism yearning for the sunlit uphills of Angela von de Leydenland.
These jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people do tend to be nonsense, don't they?
Sadly for Labour proving only too true......
Well no. Until last night I might have agreed, but Wales confirmed why Johnson has done so well in England. Although the Conservatives can take heart in that the turnout was piss-poor and perhaps due to a lack of enthusiasm for RT, Conservative voters stayed at home they got skewered on Drakeford's vaccine performance. That being the case the same may be true for Labour in England
And of course, events dear boy....
Tha't a nice cosy blanket you found for yourself there.......
I don't see why. So Wales and Scotland stuck with to he incumbents because of Covid and vaccinations, but England voted Conservative because Starmer is cr*p and Johnson is gorgeous.
The vaccine boost in full swing, so how much can we conclude the 6 point Tory lead is because of that? I am going to conclude a lot
In which case, the polls are roughly right. And if they're right now, they were probably right in December, when C and L were roughly level. And C +6 is roughly one major government foulup from level pegging again.
Early days but if this continues it looks like Andy Street will win by a slightly larger margin than last time, but he won't absolutely storm it like Ben Houchen:
Trivial to identify Labour's problems as he does. Coming up with plausible, workable, pragmatic solutions to them would be far more interesting, and challenging.
It's not a trivial exercise to identify the problem. You have to do this first in order to propose a solution. If you do it the other way around you risk wasting a lot of time. Jones argues that Labour's problem is lack of a vision that's both clear and radically different to the Conservatives. His solution is to develop that vision and he views the GE17 manifesto and campaign as something to draw upon. I'm not a total buyer of this - I think the 17 offering was old fashioned and the result somewhat flattered it due to tactical voting by Remainers - but it's a perspective that adds value and needs to be seriously considered.
It certainly adds more value than the noddy, jaundiced notion that Jeremy Corbyn is the source of all Labour's ills and the solution is to eliminate his toxic legacy by embracing the flag and eschewing radicalism or anything which smacks of looking too socialist, chasing memories of Tony Blair and 1997. I do think there is much to learn from the New Labour project, but it's in the areas of style and focus and organization, rather than policy substance and political positioning. Blair was Mr 90s and that was a different world.
What Blair had above all was a positive vision for Britain, that’s what Labour need to rediscover.
Too many of today’s Labour Party are all negative and angry in their emotions, which is a massive turn-off to many voters.
Yes. This article yesterday in the i, from a Labour activist rang true to me
“We’re seen as patronising supply teachers. There’s some truth to the “going for a pint” test, and right now, we’re so worthy, gloomy and dull, even most Labour activists wouldn’t go for a drink with us. We also prefer to have a go at the public rather than work to win them round. I heard that one Labour canvasser told off a voter on the doorstep who wasn’t supporting the party, suggesting they “check their values”. Political charm school!”
Who goes down better in a working class boozer, a posho who has nothing in common w the locals but gets a round in and downs a pint, or a bloke who went to their school, then on to uni & comes back telling them how unenlightened they all are? Middle class academic Labour are the latter, but because they don’t get that working class people don’t hate posh people like they do, they fail to see they’re wasting their time
Yep, nothing the plebs hate more than upwardly mobile professionals. Hence why this notion that "aspiration" is what they're all about is (to put it at its mildest) ... quite sweet.
So down your local working class boozer they don't aspire to say off the top of my head send one of their grandkids off to university as the first ever in their family?
Well they can't do, can they? Because it transpires if they go off and study, become a lawyer, broaden their outlook a bit, move somewhere nice, vote Remain and stuff, they are despised compared to your good old rich eccentric toffs.
Maybe Liam Byrne was onto something when he said the rumours about him losing were bollocks?
I would expect Labour candidate to win Birmingham, Sandwell, Wolverhampton and Coventry comfortably and to lose Dudley, Walsall and Solihull comfortably. Wolverhampton and Dudley are probably going to be the closest.
Street has polled ca. 10k more in Birmingham than he did in 2017.
Judging by the council results, Conservatives will lead in Dudley by a wide margin. Labour only won something like 3 wards out of 24
Yeah, a Street win will be forged in the Black Country.
The vaccine boost in full swing, so how much can we conclude the 6 point Tory lead is because of that? I am going to conclude a lot
In which case, the polls are roughly right. And if they're right now, they were probably right in December, when C and L were roughly level. And C +6 is roughly one major government foulup from level pegging again.
I completely agree.
BoJo makes an error and Labour will be tied, the lead is IMHO not as stable as it seems. Let's see how the economic situation goes.
The vaccine boost in full swing, so how much can we conclude the 6 point Tory lead is because of that? I am going to conclude a lot
In which case, the polls are roughly right. And if they're right now, they were probably right in December, when C and L were roughly level. And C +6 is roughly one major government foulup from level pegging again.
You think Labour's going to hold its position in the polls now that Starmer's suffered one of the most humiliating by-election defeats in modern history and net losses across the country? Bold.
Early days but if this continues it looks like Andy Street will win by a slightly larger margin than last time, but he won't absolutely storm it like Ben Houchen:
h
Barnet & Camden 51% Croydon & Sutton 40% City and East 19% Enfield & Haringey 48% Greenwich & Lewisham 49% Merton & Wandsworth 61% South West 40%
Rest 100% because counted yesterday
So a big batch of Labour votes to come in from City and East, khan will widen his lead then
He will but there was talk earlier that he could win on first choices votes alone. I don't see that now.
Why is Labour performing well in Wales because of a vaccine boost but the Tories not so in England?
What are u talking about? Tories are doing very well in England for being in power for 11 years
The implication from some of our favourite posters is that Labour's performance in Wales is explained away because of the vaccines. I just wondered why that can't equally apply to the Tories in England.
London is looking closer than expected, but only Lab, Con and Green are going to keep their hefty deposits. £170k being a big chunk of the cost of running the election.
Early days but if this continues it looks like Andy Street will win by a slightly larger margin than last time, but he won't absolutely storm it like Ben Houchen:
Hampshire's in... results are (drumroll) .. almost exactly the same as last time.
In fact, I think the Lib Dems lost two seats.
Oh well.
Who? Outside of Cambridge, have they done well anywhere else?
I was looking at Kent, since I read allegations that Labour might've improved their position there. Scant evidence thereof from what has been declared so far.
Anyway, Lib Dems up a little in Tunbridge Wells, but down a little in Maidstone.
The overall LD count for all the English councils declared so far stands at -24 seats. They've been described elsewhere as treading water: a better share in the locals than at the last few GE's, of course, but no progress made in the round.
The overall picture from these contests is of the Tories and Greens making progress at the expense of Labour.
In London, it looks as if Shaun Bailey will lose by about 44/45 to 56/55, which is a more creditable performance than seemed likely.
And would give the lie to the idea that London is lost to the blues in an ocean of woke liberalism yearning for the sunlit uphills of Angela von de Leydenland.
These jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people do tend to be nonsense, don't they?
Sadly for Labour proving only too true......
That's right, Felix. Jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people are only accurate when made by Tories.
You mean like the left description immortalised by tim of PBTories..
Afore my time. Bit of an "acid wit" by all accounts.
A very astute political punter, and in life after PB a withering critic of Corbyn and the Labour left.
SeanT. and Plato could wind him up like a $5 watch, and did he bite.
In London, it looks as if Shaun Bailey will lose by about 44/45 to 56/55, which is a more creditable performance than seemed likely.
And would give the lie to the idea that London is lost to the blues in an ocean of woke liberalism yearning for the sunlit uphills of Angela von de Leydenland.
These jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people do tend to be nonsense, don't they?
Sadly for Labour proving only too true......
That's right, Felix. Jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people are only accurate when made by Tories.
You mean like the left description immortalised by tim of PBTories..
Afore my time. Bit of an "acid wit" by all accounts.
A very astute political punter, and in life after PB a withering critic of Corbyn and the Labour left.
SeanT. and Plato could wind him up like a $5 watch, and did he bite.
He’s still online on Twitter, being witty and biting in equal measure. Good value
Why is Labour performing well in Wales because of a vaccine boost but the Tories not so in England?
What are u talking about? Tories are doing very well in England for being in power for 11 years
The implication from some of our favourite posters is that Labour's performance in Wales is explained away because of the vaccines. I just wondered why that can't equally apply to the Tories in England.
I doubt if vaccines alone explains the whole picture anywhere. Wales has a lonf tradition of sticking with Labour and yesterday the biggest underperformance there was actually PC. It's not really comparable.
The vaccine boost in full swing, so how much can we conclude the 6 point Tory lead is because of that? I am going to conclude a lot
In which case, the polls are roughly right. And if they're right now, they were probably right in December, when C and L were roughly level. And C +6 is roughly one major government foulup from level pegging again.
You think Labour's going to hold its position in the polls now that Starmer's suffered one of the most humiliating by-election defeats in modern history and net losses across the country? Bold.
You think Johnson"s government is going to stop ballsing things up in ways that cut through? They had cut through fiascos in May, August and December last year.
Owen Jones Rose @OwenJones84 · 1h Labour figures are now saying that “tackling injustice and inequality” is the party’s mission. But that’s an abstraction to most voters: you need to talk about concrete things that matter to people’s lives - like housing, jobs, pay, services - and what you’ll do about them
Blimey, Jones has said something that is a correct analysis.
Labour should ban the words 'social justice', 'injustice', 'inequality' etc. from use by the party.
I doubt many voters have a clue what the party means by them, but many will have a suspicion it involves loads of bonkers pc stuff and/or giving free money to people they think are undeserving.
Labour should ban words like "inequality" and "injustice" because voters don't have a clue what they mean? I doubt voters really are that thick.
But if they are, what do you suggest we talk to them about instead - their favourite shampoo?
Owen Jones gave some non-shampoo examples. As I posted yesterday they should talk about pay and conditions - specifically the gig economy stuff, lack of security and so on.
"You'll no longer be one pay cheque away from destitution and losing the roof over your head" is far more direct and promising than "we will tackle inequality wherever we see it & fight for social justice for all."
And stop banging on about how it is terrible that some people are rich. My experience of voters is they don't really care and just want to know whether their own lives will steadily improve rather than go backwards and especially whether their kids will be alright. Most don't sit around in spasms of jealously and angst that there are rich people in London.
As a related aside, Philip Gould always used to say one of Labour's problems was it never talked about people's aspirations.
Ok, so I agree on the messaging. Make it real. And put forward policies targeted specifically in the material interests of "working people". Labour have tbf done this to varying degrees in every GE in my lifetime, particularly the last 2.
But let's be clear, the notion of big new policies in the clear material interests of everybody - all winners, no losers - is in reality a nonsense. Politics is about choices.
To be fair, making any gains at all is a fantastic result for Labour...
Given that less than a month ago 6-7 losses seemed a reasonable prediction, it certainly is.
Some were predicting Drakeford was going to lose his seat.
No doubt Welsh Labour getting its best result ever though is somehow "bad" because the Tories said so
It equals its best ever results - 2003 and 2011.
ETA - it should be noted the D’Hondt system is carefully designed to make it difficult for one party to get a majority, and indeed nobody has ever won a majority in Wales.
But by its nature, it makes it almost impossible for Labour to fall significantly below 25 seats, even if it only gets 30% of the vote.
Labour designed the Scottish system to work in the same way and look how that's played out.
In London, it looks as if Shaun Bailey will lose by about 44/45 to 56/55, which is a more creditable performance than seemed likely.
And would give the lie to the idea that London is lost to the blues in an ocean of woke liberalism yearning for the sunlit uphills of Angela von de Leydenland.
These jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people do tend to be nonsense, don't they?
Sadly for Labour proving only too true......
That's right, Felix. Jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people are only accurate when made by Tories.
You mean like the left description immortalised by tim of PBTories..
Afore my time. Bit of an "acid wit" by all accounts.
A very astute political punter, and in life after PB a withering critic of Corbyn and the Labour left.
SeanT. and Plato could wind him up like a $5 watch, and did he bite.
Really? So desperate were they to spite him that both of those posters had to resort to posting details of his real identity on this very site.
The results are in from the two new unitaries in Northamptonshire, I've just observed.
The mismanagement which caused the previous county council to be abolished and local government reorganised seems not to have hurt the Conservatives in either new authority. They have romped home.
Elsewhere, the Conservatives have retained their dominant position in Devon, and created one in Cornwall by stripping the Liberal Democrats of most of their councillors. More evidence that the future of the latter party, if it has one, is likely to be built in the South East rather than the South West.
London is looking closer than expected, but only Lab, Con and Green are going to keep their hefty deposits. £170k being a big chunk of the cost of running the election.
I think I was vaguely aware that the Labour Party have big, big problems ... but this election has brought the matter into very sharp focus.
I have never been to Hartlepool, I wasn't sure the Tories really could take it -- so I found the size of the Tory majority really, really shocking. I think it will be hugely confidence-sapping for Starmer to lose this seat so badly. For all his lawyerly experience, Starmer has not got much experience as a politician.
There really seems to be no respite to Labour's agony in Scotland. True, it is the same for the Tories, but the Tories never really relied on Scottish MPs.
So, OK, Labour did fine in Wales -- but this is the part of the UK that is losing 8 seats in the boundary redistribution. Labour will be lucky to stand still as regards Westminster seats in Wales come 2024.
Labour's problems are very deep-seated and they need much bolder & braver thinking than anything I have seen yet from Starmer or the Shadow Cabinet.
The absolute last thing Labour now need is a by-election in Batley & Spen ...
I suspect Brabin will come under pressure to delay her going.
Why is Labour performing well in Wales because of a vaccine boost but the Tories not so in England?
Tories aren't performing well in England?
No, I meant why is the Tory Party's good performance in England not explained away by the vaccines?
I don't think anyone denies the Tories are getting a well-deserved vaccine boost.
So are Labour in Wales and SNP in Scotland. Fact.
Please don't counter me with Boris personally invented, bought and injected the vaccines again. I don't believe that. They have all had a polling boost, fact!
I think I was vaguely aware that the Labour Party have big, big problems ... but this election has brought the matter into very sharp focus.
I have never been to Hartlepool, I wasn't sure the Tories really could take it -- so I found the size of the Tory majority really, really shocking. I think it will be hugely confidence-sapping for Starmer to lose this seat so badly. For all his lawyerly experience, Starmer has not got much experience as a politician.
There really seems to be no respite to Labour's agony in Scotland. True, it is the same for the Tories, but the Tories never really relied on Scottish MPs.
So, OK, Labour did fine in Wales -- but this is the part of the UK that is losing 8 seats in the boundary redistribution. Labour will be lucky to stand still as regards Westminster seats in Wales come 2024.
Labour's problems are very deep-seated and they need much bolder & braver thinking than anything I have seen yet from Starmer or the Shadow Cabinet.
The absolute last thing Labour now need is a by-election in Batley & Span ...
I suspect Brabin will come under pressure to delay her going.
Owen Jones Rose @OwenJones84 · 1h Labour figures are now saying that “tackling injustice and inequality” is the party’s mission. But that’s an abstraction to most voters: you need to talk about concrete things that matter to people’s lives - like housing, jobs, pay, services - and what you’ll do about them
Blimey, Jones has said something that is a correct analysis.
Labour should ban the words 'social justice', 'injustice', 'inequality' etc. from use by the party.
I doubt many voters have a clue what the party means by them, but many will have a suspicion it involves loads of bonkers pc stuff and/or giving free money to people they think are undeserving.
Labour should ban words like "inequality" and "injustice" because voters don't have a clue what they mean? I doubt voters really are that thick.
But if they are, what do you suggest we talk to them about instead - their favourite shampoo?
Owen Jones gave some non-shampoo examples. As I posted yesterday they should talk about pay and conditions - specifically the gig economy stuff, lack of security and so on.
"You'll no longer be one pay cheque away from destitution and losing the roof over your head" is far more direct and promising than "we will tackle inequality wherever we see it & fight for social justice for all."
And stop banging on about how it is terrible that some people are rich. My experience of voters is they don't really care and just want to know whether their own lives will steadily improve rather than go backwards and especially whether their kids will be alright. Most don't sit around in spasms of jealously and angst that there are rich people in London.
As a related aside, Philip Gould always used to say one of Labour's problems was it never talked about people's aspirations.
The problem is Labour instinct has been gig economy bad, ban ZHC, ban Uber etc....when we know lots of people actually like the job, its allows them to earn around family commitments or as a side hustle.
Are you saying they wouldn’t like to be paid more and have better conditions of employment?
No, not saying that.
I know a couple of workers in the gig economy, and what they want most, rather than sick pay or whatever, is more gigs. But giving them benefits would result in higher prices, so get them less work - either their employers would raise their prices to customers, or exit the market completely.
(Also not a few of them are working illegally so wouldn't get benefits anyway, but that's another story...)
The entire business model collapses. Uber without the gig economy is just a local taxi firm with an app and a lot of investors losing money.
They still can’t work out what to do, now that self-driving cars on existing roads has turned out to be a much more difficult problem to solve than they thought it would be.
The results are in from the two new unitaries in Northamptonshire, I've just observed.
The mismanagement which caused the previous county council to be abolished and local government reorganised seems not to have hurt the Conservatives in either new authority. They have romped home.
Elsewhere, the Conservatives have retained their dominant position in Devon, and created one in Cornwall by stripping the Liberal Democrats of most of their councillors. More evidence that the future of the latter party, if it has one, is likely to be built in the South East rather than the South West.
The vaccine boost in full swing, so how much can we conclude the 6 point Tory lead is because of that? I am going to conclude a lot
In which case, the polls are roughly right. And if they're right now, they were probably right in December, when C and L were roughly level. And C +6 is roughly one major government foulup from level pegging again.
You think Labour's going to hold its position in the polls now that Starmer's suffered one of the most humiliating by-election defeats in modern history and net losses across the country? Bold.
You think Johnson"s government is going to stop ballsing things up in ways that cut through? They had cut through fiascos in May, August and December last year.
Bold.
And recovered rapidly from them to great electoral effect. I'd bet on Boris' prodigious powers of resilience over Starmer's meagre ability to capitalize on his errors any day of the week.
Especially now that the mantle of loser has been firmly pinned to Captain Hindsight, who, true to form, never saw it coming...
Why is Labour performing well in Wales because of a vaccine boost but the Tories not so in England?
Tories aren't performing well in England?
No, I meant why is the Tory Party's good performance in England not explained away by the vaccines?
I don't think anyone denies the Tories are getting a well-deserved vaccine boost.
So are Labour in Wales and SNP in Scotland. Fact.
Please don't counter me with Boris personally invented, bought and injected the vaccines again. I don't believe that. They have all had a polling boost, fact!
But Boris's government procured the vaccines.
If you don't believe that, then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales? 🤦♂️
Hampshire's in... results are (drumroll) .. almost exactly the same as last time.
In fact, I think the Lib Dems lost two seats.
Oh well.
Who? Outside of Cambridge, have they done well anywhere else?
Dunno. Got a few more in Surrey, I think.
Where they break through, they do it big time - in my division, on a 35% swing! They substantially improved across Surrey (as did Labour a bit), though the Tories are still in control.
Owen Jones Rose @OwenJones84 · 1h Labour figures are now saying that “tackling injustice and inequality” is the party’s mission. But that’s an abstraction to most voters: you need to talk about concrete things that matter to people’s lives - like housing, jobs, pay, services - and what you’ll do about them
Blimey, Jones has said something that is a correct analysis.
Labour should ban the words 'social justice', 'injustice', 'inequality' etc. from use by the party.
I doubt many voters have a clue what the party means by them, but many will have a suspicion it involves loads of bonkers pc stuff and/or giving free money to people they think are undeserving.
Labour should ban words like "inequality" and "injustice" because voters don't have a clue what they mean? I doubt voters really are that thick.
But if they are, what do you suggest we talk to them about instead - their favourite shampoo?
What the words mean, and what Labour mean by them, are (at least potentially) different things.
Well, they find meaning via the policies. In the abstract, not so much. And this is the point. You need the big picture stuff, the messaging to sell it, and then the policies to flesh it out and show what it means in practice. Eg, Labour can bang on all they like about "reducing inequality" but if you can't see how their actual policies will actually do this, it's just hot air - and potentially offputting.
I actually think Binface should do it because places like Camden, Lewisham, and East should give him comfortably more than the average just as Lambeth and North East did.
Maybe Liam Byrne was onto something when he said the rumours about him losing were bollocks?
I would expect Labour candidate to win Birmingham, Sandwell, Wolverhampton and Coventry comfortably and to lose Dudley, Walsall and Solihull comfortably. Wolverhampton and Dudley are probably going to be the closest.
Street has polled ca. 10k more in Birmingham than he did in 2017.
and is if to show I do know what I am talking about
Walsall Street: 35010 Byrne: 19887
and in the Black Country, it has swung massively to Street
Sandwell Byrne: 33047 Street: 27876 (In 2017, Street was back ca. 15k votes here)
Wolverhampton Street: 27784 Byrne: 24989 (In 2017, Street was down about 4k votes in Wolvo)
Why is Labour performing well in Wales because of a vaccine boost but the Tories not so in England?
Tories aren't performing well in England?
No, I meant why is the Tory Party's good performance in England not explained away by the vaccines?
I don't think anyone denies the Tories are getting a well-deserved vaccine boost.
So are Labour in Wales and SNP in Scotland. Fact.
Please don't counter me with Boris personally invented, bought and injected the vaccines again. I don't believe that. They have all had a polling boost, fact!
But Boris's government procured the vaccines.
If you don't believe that, then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales? 🤦♂️
And we know that a majority of Scots know it was the British and not Scottish government that procured them
In London, it looks as if Shaun Bailey will lose by about 44/45 to 56/55, which is a more creditable performance than seemed likely.
And would give the lie to the idea that London is lost to the blues in an ocean of woke liberalism yearning for the sunlit uphills of Angela von de Leydenland.
These jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people do tend to be nonsense, don't they?
Sadly for Labour proving only too true......
That's right, Felix. Jaundiced generalizations about large groups of people are only accurate when made by Tories.
You mean like the left description immortalised by tim of PBTories..
Afore my time. Bit of an "acid wit" by all accounts.
A very astute political punter, and in life after PB a withering critic of Corbyn and the Labour left.
SeanT. and Plato could wind him up like a $5 watch, and did he bite.
Really? So desperate were they to spite him that both of those posters had to resort to posting details of his real identity on this very site.
IIRC - I was just a humble lurker - the great SeanT only got punchy with tim because Tim sort-of doxxed SeanT, referencing his statements on another site
I miss them both. Titans, they were, we shall not see their like again. Now we are reduced to accountants like ‘kinabalu’. Sic transit Gloria Mundi
Even I would have voted for Street in my native West Midlands. My dad, a staunch remainer and normally a Lib Dem voter voted for him in Coventry. He's just good.
But hold on, the Tories are down to a single point lead after being 10+ points ahead a few weeks ago.
All those saying the wallpaper or whatever else had no impact are clearly wrong, the polls picking up that the lead had dropped were right.
These were council elections not a GE.....the "projected national vote share" is a guess-estimate, in the same way polls are, albeit with more data. Polls have bounced around between 5-10% since Christmas, these results are in this range, with the one actual by-election in England, showing a huge swing to the Tories.
I think I was vaguely aware that the Labour Party have big, big problems ... but this election has brought the matter into very sharp focus.
I have never been to Hartlepool, I wasn't sure the Tories really could take it -- so I found the size of the Tory majority really, really shocking. I think it will be hugely confidence-sapping for Starmer to lose this seat so badly. For all his lawyerly experience, Starmer has not got much experience as a politician.
There really seems to be no respite to Labour's agony in Scotland. True, it is the same for the Tories, but the Tories never really relied on Scottish MPs.
So, OK, Labour did fine in Wales -- but this is the part of the UK that is losing 8 seats in the boundary redistribution. Labour will be lucky to stand still as regards Westminster seats in Wales come 2024.
Labour's problems are very deep-seated and they need much bolder & braver thinking than anything I have seen yet from Starmer or the Shadow Cabinet.
The absolute last thing Labour now need is a by-election in Batley & Spen ...
I suspect Brabin will come under pressure to delay her going.
There's a Shadow Cabinet? Must say they keep themselves well in the shadows!
Trivial to identify Labour's problems as he does. Coming up with plausible, workable, pragmatic solutions to them would be far more interesting, and challenging.
In simple terms Con are now Leave and Lab are now Remain - the leaders of the parties were the main faces of Leave and the ‘Peoples Vote’ after all. Hartlepool seems to indicate that Leavers who were formerly Lab voters don’t mind voting Tory now, & Labour are doing well in southern Remain areas.
I guess the big problem for Labour, if the it is true that voters are staying with their Brexit vote rather than their traditional party, is that Leave won roughly 64% of parliamentary constituencies according to Hanretty, so the Tories have an inbuilt advantage while that stays relevant.
It’s probably true to say it was Starmer’s Brexit policy, a second referendum in which Labour would campaign for Remain, that lost the Red Wall rather than anti Corbyn sentiment, now we know for sure that Leave areas don’t vote for Sir Keir’s Corbyn-less Labour
Whilst there is still a strong leave identity, there really isnt a strong remain one. Brexit is done. All I ask is the government gets credit/blame for how it turns out and doesnt seek to blame it on others. Remain is a terrible place for Labour to build from compared to say workers, or even current under 50s.
This is at the heart of the problem imo. The Leave identity is bigger AND stronger AND more unified than Remain. The Tories own it and until this changes will be a bugger to remove from power under FPTP.
That's only the case so long as people care about the Leave identity and not some other Big Idea that they care about more.
However Keir is Idea-free.
Yes, the crumbling of the Leave identity (or at least the Con ownership of it) is a pre-requisite for the next GE being competitive. I'm hopeful. Either Starmer will step up post pandemic or he'll be replaced in summer next year by someone who can.
The leave identity won't crumble though, Labour needs to get on board with being a brexit cheerleader. It needs to start welcoming independent trade deals and make whatever number of pledges necessary to not reopen the existing brexit deal.
Labour simply isn't trusted not to sell out brexit as soon as they get power in tandem with the SNP. I know more leave voters than you and all of them suspect that Starmer will sign us up to the single market and customs union within a year of becoming PM. He was remainer and mischief maker in chief from 2016-2020 literally until the day we left the EU. He was the guy who pivoted Labour from Corbyn's "deliver a Labour brexit" idea to proposing a second referendum in 2019. Leave voters have long memories and Labour is tainted from the 2016-2019 brexit blocking shenanigans instigated by their current leader.
The Labour pivot to Ref2 wasn't about Starmer. It was forced by the membership and by a realpolitik imperative - to mitigate the risk of being eclipsed by the LDs if they were left to swim the "stop Brexit" lane alone.
I take your general point that Labour will continue to struggle with Leavers if they don't embrace the future outside the EU. I think they'll be able to do that whilst advocating closer ties (so long as the dreaded free movement is not a part of it.)
But Labour's core support are not Leavers and this will not be changing. They have to retain and expand their Remainer vote and at the same time win back enough Leavers to get competitive. A difficult task, whoever the leader is.
At heart is Labour’s desperation (or determination) to hang onto its position as sole opposition party and hence reject pluralist politics.
Strategically, they’d have been better to let the LibDems take what they could from the Tories in areas that Labour is unlikely ever to win, as Blair did.
The biggest question for Labour over coming years is whether it will embrace pluralism, and co-operation with other centre left parties, or whether it will continue to search for a formula that will somehow deliver 45% of the vote for them alone (and even with that, a majority requires that other parties mop up another 15% of the vote)
God I’m bored. I’ve run out of things to say about the locals, the mayoralty, Scotland. It’s ANOTHER grey wet day, but not even interestingly cold. My favourite marble dildo hangs listless in my hand. I’ve given up heroin and it’s too early to drink
If Labour held leadership elections every 18 months as a matter of course, do you think Starmer would be favourite to win now? If the answer is no, why bother carrying on with him?
Yes, because there’s no realistic alternative. One reason why Duncan Smith was toppled was that there were two clear cut candidates to replace him in Davis and Howard.
The loss of talent under first Brown, later Miliband and then finally Corbyn really is haunting Labour.
It's not that. There are alternatives. Plus you don't know if someone will be good as leader until they are the leader.
The reason not to junk Starmer is because he hasn't yet had the chance to show what he can do in a scenario where Covid is not blotting out normal politics.
This starts now. Keir has a Yeir.
What happens after a year should things not improve and he doesn't resign? The LP is not good as dispensing with its leaders.
I think if things look as bleak for Labour this time next year he will resign. He'll have no choice.
Corbyn was in a far bleaker situation in 2016-17 and didn’t resign.
And, to Labour’s later great misfortune, staged at least a partial recovery.
A recovery that included removing the Con majority in a GE in which he won the biggest Labour share of the English vote since 1997.
And later led to their worst result for 74 years.
Yes, both 17 and 19 need to be considered to get a 360 view of the Corbyn era.
Even I would have voted for Street in my native West Midlands. My dad, a staunch remainer and normally a Lib Dem voter voted for him in Coventry. He's just good.
Crazy that...people do a good job and get voted in again....what is the world coming to.
God I’m bored. I’ve run out of things to say about the locals, the mayoralty, Scotland. It’s ANOTHER grey wet day, but not even interestingly cold. My favourite marble dildo hangs listless in my hand. I’ve given up heroin and it’s too early to drink
But hold on, the Tories are down to a single point lead after being 10+ points ahead a few weeks ago.
All those saying the wallpaper or whatever else had no impact are clearly wrong, the polls picking up that the lead had dropped were right.
So the polls showing almost no Tory lead are right and the actual election results are wrong? How interesting!
I think the lead is smaller than the locals suggest, although clearly the Tories enjoy a comfortable lead. Youth turnout, anecdotally, has been shocking. The under 30s are not interested in local elections, and why would they be? They don't own property by and large.
God I’m bored. I’ve run out of things to say about the locals, the mayoralty, Scotland. It’s ANOTHER grey wet day, but not even interestingly cold. My favourite marble dildo hangs listless in my hand. I’ve given up heroin and it’s too early to drink
Pfffff
Can you remember from your lurker days what year it was SeanT went to Namibia and suffered a bout of gin poisoning? Trying to date my introduction to the site, and that was one of the first things I read here.
Why is Labour performing well in Wales because of a vaccine boost but the Tories not so in England?
Tories aren't performing well in England?
No, I meant why is the Tory Party's good performance in England not explained away by the vaccines?
I don't think anyone denies the Tories are getting a well-deserved vaccine boost.
So are Labour in Wales and SNP in Scotland. Fact.
Please don't counter me with Boris personally invented, bought and injected the vaccines again. I don't believe that. They have all had a polling boost, fact!
But Boris's government procured the vaccines.
If you don't believe that, then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales? 🤦♂️
I am giving the Johnson Government credit for vaccine procurement on their watch. You try to turn that into Boris Johnson personally bidding and winning on a WHO version of eBay against the French and Germans which is patently untrue.
I am conceding also that Johnson has had a vaccine polling bounce, you are countering that by saying you think he should have one in Wales and Scotland too. Well it hasn't happened like that, so I don't see the point you are making.
The incumbents in England, Wales and Scotland have seen a vaccine bounce. What more is there to say? Except "bounce" implies stuff goes down as well as up, and that applies to all three countries of the UK that voted on Thursday.
But hold on, the Tories are down to a single point lead after being 10+ points ahead a few weeks ago.
All those saying the wallpaper or whatever else had no impact are clearly wrong, the polls picking up that the lead had dropped were right.
So the polls showing almost no Tory lead are right and the actual election results are wrong? How interesting!
I think the lead is smaller than the locals suggest, although clearly the Tories enjoy a comfortable lead. Youth turnout, anecdotally, has been shocking. The under 30s are not interested in local elections, and why would they be? They don't own property by and large.
Yes, but in locals people vote for all sorts of minor parties they never would in a GE. I think 6% is probably about right, Labour aren't on 29%, nor are the Tories on 36%. Its why you take the national vote share projection with a pinch of salt.
The polling, the difference has always been the Labour figure. Tories since Christmas have been consistently ~42%. The size of the gap is always dependent on if Labour is on ~36%, or lower, say down as low as 32-33%. I think 35-36% seems reasonable.
God I’m bored. I’ve run out of things to say about the locals, the mayoralty, Scotland. It’s ANOTHER grey wet day, but not even interestingly cold. My favourite marble dildo hangs listless in my hand. I’ve given up heroin and it’s too early to drink
Pfffff
Why not a frapaccino or equivalent? Always cheers me up!
The results are in from the two new unitaries in Northamptonshire, I've just observed.
The mismanagement which caused the previous county council to be abolished and local government reorganised seems not to have hurt the Conservatives in either new authority. They have romped home.
Elsewhere, the Conservatives have retained their dominant position in Devon, and created one in Cornwall by stripping the Liberal Democrats of most of their councillors. More evidence that the future of the latter party, if it has one, is likely to be built in the South East rather than the South West.
Why is Labour performing well in Wales because of a vaccine boost but the Tories not so in England?
Tories aren't performing well in England?
No, I meant why is the Tory Party's good performance in England not explained away by the vaccines?
I don't think anyone denies the Tories are getting a well-deserved vaccine boost.
So are Labour in Wales and SNP in Scotland. Fact.
Please don't counter me with Boris personally invented, bought and injected the vaccines again. I don't believe that. They have all had a polling boost, fact!
But Boris's government procured the vaccines.
If you don't believe that, then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales? 🤦♂️
I am giving the Johnson Government credit for vaccine procurement on their watch. You try to turn that into Boris Johnson personally bidding and winning on a WHO version of eBay against the French and Germans which is patently untrue.
I am conceding also that Johnson has had a vaccine polling bounce, you are countering that by saying you think he should have one in Wales and Scotland too. Well it hasn't happened like that, so I don't see the point you are making.
The incumbents in England, Wales and Scotland have seen a vaccine bounce. What more is there to say? Except "bounce" implies stuff goes down as well as up, and that applies to all three countries of the UK that voted on Thursday.
Boris's government did bid on and win the procurement race against the French, Germans and every other major government in the entire planet.
If you don't think Boris's government procured the vaccines then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales?
Did Drakeford set up his own vaccine taskforce? Were they procured by unicorns? Wishful thinking? Did they grown on roses?
Comments
No doubt Welsh Labour getting its best result ever though is somehow "bad" because the Tories said so
In fact, I think the Lib Dems lost two seats.
Oh well.
Patrick O'Flynn @oflynnsocial
Byrne only wins the Brum bit of the West Mids by 17.5k - well down on Lab margin of victory last time.
Given the big Tory surge will be in the Black Country, this is more evidence that a Street landslide is on the way. https://twitter.com/HannahAlOthman/status/1391011867363975173
ETA - it should be noted the D’Hondt system is carefully designed to make it difficult for one party to get a majority, and indeed nobody has ever won a majority in Wales.
But by its nature, it makes it almost impossible for Labour to fall significantly below 25 seats, even if it only gets 30% of the vote.
And C +6 is roughly one major government foulup from level pegging again.
https://twitter.com/sundersays/status/1391014313217900547?s=20
Which explains the +5 for Conservatives?
And perhaps suggests that some of the former Kipper vote helped The Drake & Co not just hold their own but gain +1?
Wednesday were staying up for 3 seconds!
Now dead last!
Con 47.9% (+19.8)
Lab 43.5% (-3.8)
LD 8.7%
Second prefs to be counted now. But it is pretty clear Con will gain it
BoJo makes an error and Labour will be tied, the lead is IMHO not as stable as it seems. Let's see how the economic situation goes.
Anyway, I want to focus on betting and results today. Save the culture stuff for another day.
SNP hold Cumbernauld and Kilsyth
The SNP's Jamie Hepburn has held Cumbernauld with an increased majority of 9,841 over Labour in second.
He will but there was talk earlier that he could win on first choices votes alone. I don't see that now.
https://www.londonelects.org.uk/sites/default/files/2021-05/West Central 2021.pdf
They’re not displaying figures for the counts in progress, it would be a spinning counter.
Anyway, Lib Dems up a little in Tunbridge Wells, but down a little in Maidstone.
The overall LD count for all the English councils declared so far stands at -24 seats. They've been described elsewhere as treading water: a better share in the locals than at the last few GE's, of course, but no progress made in the round.
The overall picture from these contests is of the Tories and Greens making progress at the expense of Labour.
The whole point of Britain is that we do this stuff quickly
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1391016993474715650?s=20
https://twitter.com/sarahjolney1/status/1391013492313006084
SeanT. and Plato could wind him up like a $5 watch, and did he bite.
Bold.
Remember gravity!
But let's be clear, the notion of big new policies in the clear material interests of everybody - all winners, no losers - is in reality a nonsense. Politics is about choices.
Sometimes there CAN be voter fatigue from over-communication.
But MUCH better than under-communication. Esp. none at all. Because IF you go overboard, then voters may be irritated but also impressed.
UNLESS you are just paying a consultant big bucks pumping out direct mail & etc. Like Jeff Bezos did in 2019 Seattle city council elections.
He only succeeded in convincing voters he was trying to buy the election. And ended up helping elect the very people he wished to defeat.
35% turnout.
The mismanagement which caused the previous county council to be abolished and local government reorganised seems not to have hurt the Conservatives in either new authority. They have romped home.
Elsewhere, the Conservatives have retained their dominant position in Devon, and created one in Cornwall by stripping the Liberal Democrats of most of their councillors. More evidence that the future of the latter party, if it has one, is likely to be built in the South East rather than the South West.
Street 41,664
Byrne 9,515
GRN 6,475
RFM 1,119
LD 2,823
Votes for Count Binface so far:
- West Central 1301
- Bexley & Bromley 1861
- Lambeth & Southwark 2240
- Brent & Harrow 1241
- Ealing & Hillingdon 1691
- Havering & Redbridge 1188
- North East 2576
So, he's on just over 12,000 votes. 7 x areas to come. So Binface needs to get more than 1,150 votes in each, on average, to pip 20k.Even if he just falls short at 18-19k the Ladbrokes bet at 15/2 was very good value.
I have never been to Hartlepool, I wasn't sure the Tories really could take it -- so I found the size of the Tory majority really, really shocking. I think it will be hugely confidence-sapping for Starmer to lose this seat so badly. For all his lawyerly experience, Starmer has not got much experience as a politician.
There really seems to be no respite to Labour's agony in Scotland. True, it is the same for the Tories, but the Tories never really relied on Scottish MPs.
So, OK, Labour did fine in Wales -- but this is the part of the UK that is losing 8 seats in the boundary redistribution. Labour will be lucky to stand still as regards Westminster seats in Wales come 2024.
Labour's problems are very deep-seated and they need much bolder & braver thinking than anything I have seen yet from Starmer or the Shadow Cabinet.
The absolute last thing Labour now need is a by-election in Batley & Spen ...
I suspect Brabin will come under pressure to delay her going.
Please don't counter me with Boris personally invented, bought and injected the vaccines again. I don't believe that. They have all had a polling boost, fact!
569,056 vaccinations in United Kingdom yesterday (ex Wales)
England 107,518 1st doses / 414,731 2nd doses
Scotland 6,751 / 26,590
NI 5,071 / 8,395
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1391018123428605955?s=20
Especially now that the mantle of loser has been firmly pinned to Captain Hindsight, who, true to form, never saw it coming...
If you don't believe that, then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales? 🤦♂️
comfortably more than the average just as Lambeth and North East did.
Maybe 21-21.5k if he's lucky.
Walsall
Street: 35010
Byrne: 19887
and in the Black Country, it has swung massively to Street
Sandwell
Byrne: 33047
Street: 27876
(In 2017, Street was back ca. 15k votes here)
Wolverhampton
Street: 27784
Byrne: 24989
(In 2017, Street was down about 4k votes in Wolvo)
All those saying the wallpaper or whatever else had no impact are clearly wrong, the polls picking up that the lead had dropped were right.
I miss them both. Titans, they were, we shall not see their like again. Now we are reduced to accountants like ‘kinabalu’. Sic transit Gloria Mundi
No impact, just MoE.
Pfffff
I'm off to the pub
Formal Labour hiolds in Dewsbury East and West:
East: Lab (43, -10 on 2016), Con (31, +9), HWI (16, -1 on UKIP 16). HWI won ward with 41% in 2019.
West: Lab 55 (-7 on 2016), Con 26 (+16), ex-HWI Ind, 11 (+11).
Will collate all Batley & Spen wards later and compare to 2016 and May 2019.
Con - 13
Lib Dem - 12
Lab - 3
Ind - 2
Unsurprisingly its the posher parts of the area that are going Lib Dem.
I am conceding also that Johnson has had a vaccine polling bounce, you are countering that by saying you think he should have one in Wales and Scotland too. Well it hasn't happened like that, so I don't see the point you are making.
The incumbents in England, Wales and Scotland have seen a vaccine bounce. What more is there to say? Except "bounce" implies stuff goes down as well as up, and that applies to all three countries of the UK that voted on Thursday.
The polling, the difference has always been the Labour figure. Tories since Christmas have been consistently ~42%. The size of the gap is always dependent on if Labour is on ~36%, or lower, say down as low as 32-33%. I think 35-36% seems reasonable.
Edit: https://www.theoldie.co.uk/blog/auberon-waughs-dogged-campaign-against-jeremy-thorpe
If you don't think Boris's government procured the vaccines then please tell me who did procure the vaccines for Wales?
Did Drakeford set up his own vaccine taskforce? Were they procured by unicorns? Wishful thinking? Did they grown on roses?
Silly bet.