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Boris should start Scottish independence negotiations now – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 8 in General
imageBoris should start Scottish independence negotiations now – politicalbetting.com

Goodbye separation trauma; hello separation trauma. After this week’s elections, Holyrood will again have a pro-Independence majority meaning the constitutional arguments of the last decade will not only continue but intensify. While the SNP look unlikely to win an overall majority, the Greens should see them over the line. Cue demands for a second referendum such as we have never heard for months.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,844
    Test
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 9,755
    Damn. Just posted on the previous thread.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 9,755
    Re the header, there is a certain irony in Brexit's front man opposing Scottish independence.

    The header may offer sound advice but taken as a whole, it is reminiscent of Bitter Together or Project Fear, concentrating on the drawbacks of independence rather than the advantages of union.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited May 8
    Boris Johnson and Carrie Symonds rent out their £1.2million south London townhouse to raise cash after Downing Street refurbishment row

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9555867/Boris-Johnson-Carrie-Symonds-rent-1-2million-south-London-townhouse.html

    If he really does spend 10 years as PM, he will be bankrupt.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    I'm afraid I disagree with David on this.

    If the SNP fail to win an outright majority then Westminster have every right to ignore the latest clamour. The SNP will always ask for independence: it's why they exist. But they didn't win an outright majority for it.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    p.s. Well done to TSE for brilliantly predicting that Welsh Labour would do well. 'Returning to the fold' is a phrase I think he used of their support.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    edited May 8
    Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 15,355

    ...
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    Scott_xP said:

    image
    ...

    He will come to grief eventually and I'm sure when he does those who detest him will enjoy the moment.

    In the meantime he has once again proven that he is a winning politician and in the process he has confounded his critics.
  • Excellent advice David. If only you were in the Cabinet.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    The thing is, the battle doesn't need to be fought. The once in a generation battle was fought in 2014. The SNP have not won a majority to alter that view.

    End of.

    The union remains.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    edited May 8
    It'll be easier for Johnson to refuse another referendum if the unionist parties have won an overall majority of votes, even if they haven't done so in terms of seats. At the moment they're on about 51.5% of the constituency vote.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    I suppose the corollary of David’s argument - albeit one he doesn’t put forward - is that if the Nats are having to campaign for independence on a shit deal, that leaves the Unionists free to make a positive case for the Union. It inverts Project Fear. ‘Vote for this deal to be poorer and have less independence’ isn’t likely to be a vote winner.

    Last time, Better Together were always on the defensive (not that they changed much in the last seven years) because Salmond was offering the moon on a stick. And yes, everyone knew he was lying but that didn’t make it easier to rebut positively.

    Whether they would make that case is another question.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,398
    Excellent piece. I largely agree with all of this - it's important to get on the front foot and focus the debate on the reality of independence rather than the more fantastical abstract. People can then make a choice (it should also help with the stability of sterling too as they'll be more market certainty as to what will happen either way, so we all have an interest).

    However, let's wait and see what the final results in Scotland are first.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 33,666
    ydoethur said:

    I suppose the corollary of David’s argument - albeit one he doesn’t put forward - is that if the Nats are having to campaign for independence on a shit deal, that leaves the Unionists free to make a positive case for the Union. It inverts Project Fear. ‘Vote for this deal to be poorer and have less independence’ isn’t likely to be a vote winner.

    Last time, Better Together were always on the defensive (not that they changed much in the last seven years) because Salmond was offering the moon on a stick. And yes, everyone knew he was lying but that didn’t make it easier to rebut positively.

    Whether they would make that case is another question.

    But if the unionists negotiate a tough deal is the SNP argument “look the English are trying to f*** you”?

    Moreover you are never going to spend the time and energy to negotiate a full treaty prior to a vote so whatever you produce will be just a heads of terms that gets ignore if a referendum is won by the SNP

    Alternatively the SNP just says “that’s just time wasting stop messing around and give us what we want”

    Ultimately it depends on the vote. If the list vote is under 50% for independence minded parties then there isn’t a mandate regardless of the number of MPs.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,398
    Andy_JS said:

    Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.

    I'm utterly astonished at this.

    In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.

    Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,708
    If Unionist parties win more votes than separatist ones, then that's all Johnson will need.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,708
    In Wales, Labour has been in change of rolling out the vaccine and easing lockdown, and has had its leader and other ministers appearing daily on the TV giving good news. Funnily enough, Welsh Labour has just got its best ever result in a Welsh election. Or is there a link?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    I suppose the corollary of David’s argument - albeit one he doesn’t put forward - is that if the Nats are having to campaign for independence on a shit deal, that leaves the Unionists free to make a positive case for the Union. It inverts Project Fear. ‘Vote for this deal to be poorer and have less independence’ isn’t likely to be a vote winner.

    Last time, Better Together were always on the defensive (not that they changed much in the last seven years) because Salmond was offering the moon on a stick. And yes, everyone knew he was lying but that didn’t make it easier to rebut positively.

    Whether they would make that case is another question.

    But if the unionists negotiate a tough deal is the SNP argument “look the English are trying to f*** you”?
    Very probably. But they would still then have to explain why it was better to be fucked by the English on a deal they had signed up to than to keep the status quo.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007

    The thing is, the battle doesn't need to be fought. The once in a generation battle was fought in 2014. The SNP have not won a majority to alter that view.

    End of.

    The union remains.

    This is the most incomprehensible of arguments.

    The voters are allowed to change their minds, and what one set of representatives said to another is of no consequences.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    One thing these elections should show is the urgent need for reform of the voting systems in local and regional government. Our current systems are a confusing, incoherent mess that constantly throw up stupid results.

    But the Tories won’t tamper with FPTP at local level because it gives them a majority at Westminster and they don’t want to risk that. And Labour won’t tamper with D’Hondt because it may bugger them in Scotland but it’s keeping them healthy elsewhere.

    It is to the eternal credit of the SNP - not something I write often - that they did make the effort to reform local government elections in Scotland and came up with what seems from this distance like a much better system.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 43,398
    Andy_JS said:

    It'll be easier for Johnson to refuse another referendum if the unionist parties have won an overall majority of votes, even if they haven't done so in terms of seats. At the moment they're on about 51.5% of the constituency vote.

    Agree

    If Unionist parties win more votes than separatist ones, then that's all Johnson will need.

    It's a good point, the SNP are basically relying (wholly) on some mathematical jiggery-pokery from the Greens in the list to get them over the line.

    They've come up short in both votes and seats.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,120
    Hello, everyone. Not writing 'good morning' 'cos it's a nasty one and I wonder about the survival of our blue-tit chicks, given the probable difficulties for the parents catching insects this weather.
    Although it does look as though it might brighten up later.

    On topic, I doubt whether the PM will go anywhere near the independence debate. On the contrary, I think he just might suggest the repeal of the Devolution Acts.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639

    Hello, everyone. Not writing 'good morning' 'cos it's a nasty one and I wonder about the survival of our blue-tit chicks, given the probable difficulties for the parents catching insects this weather.
    Although it does look as though it might brighten up later.

    On topic, I doubt whether the PM will go anywhere near the independence debate. On the contrary, I think he just might suggest the repeal of the Devolution Acts.

    It would be madness. Then the only way the Scots could get a referendum would be to return a minimum of 30 SNP MPs to Westminster, which would bugger the Lab...

    You’re right, it’s a strong possibility, isn’t it?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,708
    edited May 8

    Excellent piece. I largely agree with all of this - it's important to get on the front foot and focus the debate on the reality of independence rather than the more fantastical abstract. People can then make a choice (it should also help with the stability of sterling too as they'll be more market certainty as to what will happen either way, so we all have an interest).

    However, let's wait and see what the final results in Scotland are first.

    Deleted - responding to the wrong post!

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,708

    Andy_JS said:

    Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.

    I'm utterly astonished at this.

    In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.

    Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.

    Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.

  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,648

    Andy_JS said:

    Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.

    I'm utterly astonished at this.

    In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.

    Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.

    Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.

    An outside chance perhaps but London is now very progressive - a relatively young, sophisticated and educated populace is never going to vote Tory willingly.

    I fear for the Tories in London.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    Red Wall News: In NE Lincs - home to previous Labour seat of Grimsby - the Labour Party lost all 7 councillors putting up for election. The Conservatives made 8 gains (including one more from the LibDems).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,120
    The only positive I can take from the election results is that for the first time since 1997 I voted for the winner in my district. And that was the firs time since, I think, about 1962!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,572
    murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.

    I'm utterly astonished at this.

    In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.

    Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.

    Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.

    An outside chance perhaps but London is now very progressive - a relatively young, sophisticated and educated populace is never going to vote Tory willingly.

    I fear for the Tories in London.
    Are Bexley and Bromley, Ealing and Hillingdon, Brent and Harrow, Havering and Redbridge and West Central not parts of London ?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,719

    Andy_JS said:

    Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.

    I'm utterly astonished at this.

    In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.

    Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.

    Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.

    Remember though that the figures so far include the Conservative's best bits (Bexley/Bromley; Havering/Redbridge), whereas the really good Labour bits (City/East; Lewisham/Greenwich) are yet to enter the totaliser. Kahn's results are underwhelming, but not that bad. And the Conservative absorption of the UKIP vote in Havering doesn't look like it's at Hartlepool levels.

    And who is the Conservative candidate who had a shot? Not Rory- he'd been kicked out of the Cabinet and party as part of Johnson's relaunch. On the same basis, nobody like Rory. And the type of anti-metropolitan who is the core Conservative these days would struggle to appeal in the metropolis.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201

    Andy_JS said:

    It'll be easier for Johnson to refuse another referendum if the unionist parties have won an overall majority of votes, even if they haven't done so in terms of seats. At the moment they're on about 51.5% of the constituency vote.

    Agree

    If Unionist parties win more votes than separatist ones, then that's all Johnson will need.

    It's a good point, the SNP are basically relying (wholly) on some mathematical jiggery-pokery from the Greens in the list to get them over the line.

    They've come up short in both votes and seats.
    People seem to forget that the PM won an 80 seat majority on a manifesto that included "No second referendum in Scotland". Almost 14 million voted for that.

    Boris has no mandate to negotiate with Sturgeon.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,648
    edited May 8
    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.

    I'm utterly astonished at this.

    In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.

    Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.

    Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.

    An outside chance perhaps but London is now very progressive - a relatively young, sophisticated and educated populace is never going to vote Tory willingly.

    I fear for the Tories in London.
    Are Bexley and Bromley, Ealing and Hillingdon, Brent and Harrow, Havering and Redbridge and West Central not parts of London ?
    Bexley, Bromley, Havering are not representative of what London is/(has) transforming(ed) to. These are the least multi-cultural parts of London.

    The other boroughs you mentioned have returned poor results for Sadiq - however, the constituency vote was much stronger for Labour I believe. So, yes Sadiq is under-performing as expected.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,532

    Andy_JS said:

    Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.

    I'm utterly astonished at this.

    In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.

    Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.
    I think there are still more Labour dominated areas to count so the figures will change a lot. However, Bailey has clearly beated the polls and despite his weaknesses he has shown that the demise of the Tories in London as a whole has been somewhat exaggerated. The result makes much less of a figleaf for Labour woes overall than would have been expected. Likewise I suspect Andy Street will win in the WM fairly securely.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,708
    edited May 8

    Andy_JS said:

    Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.

    I'm utterly astonished at this.

    In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.

    Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.

    Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.

    Remember though that the figures so far include the Conservative's best bits (Bexley/Bromley; Havering/Redbridge), whereas the really good Labour bits (City/East; Lewisham/Greenwich) are yet to enter the totaliser. Kahn's results are underwhelming, but not that bad. And the Conservative absorption of the UKIP vote in Havering doesn't look like it's at Hartlepool levels.

    And who is the Conservative candidate who had a shot? Not Rory- he'd been kicked out of the Cabinet and party as part of Johnson's relaunch. On the same basis, nobody like Rory. And the type of anti-metropolitan who is the core Conservative these days would struggle to appeal in the metropolis.

    Oh, I agree. I don't think London has become any less Labour overall, I just think Khan specifically has underwhelmed and that there was an opportunity for the Tories with someone like Stewart standing for them. But that was basically an impossibility with BJ as national leader.

  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760

    Andy_JS said:

    It'll be easier for Johnson to refuse another referendum if the unionist parties have won an overall majority of votes, even if they haven't done so in terms of seats. At the moment they're on about 51.5% of the constituency vote.

    Agree

    If Unionist parties win more votes than separatist ones, then that's all Johnson will need.

    It's a good point, the SNP are basically relying (wholly) on some mathematical jiggery-pokery from the Greens in the list to get them over the line.

    They've come up short in both votes and seats.
    Exactly
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760

    Andy_JS said:

    It'll be easier for Johnson to refuse another referendum if the unionist parties have won an overall majority of votes, even if they haven't done so in terms of seats. At the moment they're on about 51.5% of the constituency vote.

    Agree

    If Unionist parties win more votes than separatist ones, then that's all Johnson will need.

    It's a good point, the SNP are basically relying (wholly) on some mathematical jiggery-pokery from the Greens in the list to get them over the line.

    They've come up short in both votes and seats.
    People seem to forget that the PM won an 80 seat majority on a manifesto that included "No second referendum in Scotland". Almost 14 million voted for that.

    Boris has no mandate to negotiate with Sturgeon.
    Quite
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 24,120

    Andy_JS said:

    It'll be easier for Johnson to refuse another referendum if the unionist parties have won an overall majority of votes, even if they haven't done so in terms of seats. At the moment they're on about 51.5% of the constituency vote.

    Agree

    If Unionist parties win more votes than separatist ones, then that's all Johnson will need.

    It's a good point, the SNP are basically relying (wholly) on some mathematical jiggery-pokery from the Greens in the list to get them over the line.

    They've come up short in both votes and seats.
    People seem to forget that the PM won an 80 seat majority on a manifesto that included "No second referendum in Scotland". Almost 14 million voted for that.

    Boris has no mandate to negotiate with Sturgeon.
    And, see above, doesn't want to. Feisty female who is immune to his charm. Not somewhere he wants to go.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,424
    edited May 8

    Andy_JS said:

    It'll be easier for Johnson to refuse another referendum if the unionist parties have won an overall majority of votes, even if they haven't done so in terms of seats. At the moment they're on about 51.5% of the constituency vote.

    Agree

    If Unionist parties win more votes than separatist ones, then that's all Johnson will need.

    It's a good point, the SNP are basically relying (wholly) on some mathematical jiggery-pokery from the Greens in the list to get them over the line.

    They've come up short in both votes and seats.
    People seem to forget that the PM won an 80 seat majority on a manifesto that included "No second referendum in Scotland". Almost 14 million voted for that.

    Boris has no mandate to negotiate with Sturgeon.
    I guess he had no mandate to spend a ton of public money on things like furlough either. Things happen, deal with it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 20,898
    SNP no majority looks an outstanding bet @1.3

    I have backed it.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,532
    Guardian - Khalid Mahmood:

    "Labour MP Khalid Mahmood has doubled down on his scathing criticism of the party after its defeat in Hartlepool, saying Labour has become too focused on London-centric issues which are irrelevant to working-class people.

    In an article published on Friday, Mahmood said the Labour party had been captured by a “London-based bourgeoisie” and “brigades of woke social media warriors”."
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    Just because the SNP shout loudly doesn't mean that Westminster should kow tow to them. The simple fact is (well, we think at this stage of counting) that they failed to win a majority for their independence referendum and the unionist vote in Scotland is likely to finish over 50%.

    Referenda are rarely good idea. In fact, they are invariably bad. They don't resolve issues satisfactorily. It's more than possible that another indy referendum would lead to another nasty split in the vote like Brexit did and that will leave rancour. It won't resolve things in the way some seem to assume it will.

    There was a once in a lifetime referendum in 2014. The Scottish people voted 'no.' If they wished to have another referendum they are certainly entitled to it morally but the fact is, they haven't voted for it. Scottish unionists polled more than 50%.

    There will not be another referendum for the foreseeable. Nor should there be.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 2,486
    If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.

    Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.

    Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,532

    Julie Owen Moylan @JulieOwenMoylan

    Labour needs a listening exercise but from my experience of working class life I think the middle class left think it’s all food banks and poverty. That’s not the experience of most working class people. They own their houses and go on nice holidays. Lab doesn’t speak to them.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,648

    Andy_JS said:

    It'll be easier for Johnson to refuse another referendum if the unionist parties have won an overall majority of votes, even if they haven't done so in terms of seats. At the moment they're on about 51.5% of the constituency vote.

    Agree

    If Unionist parties win more votes than separatist ones, then that's all Johnson will need.

    It's a good point, the SNP are basically relying (wholly) on some mathematical jiggery-pokery from the Greens in the list to get them over the line.

    They've come up short in both votes and seats.
    People seem to forget that the PM won an 80 seat majority on a manifesto that included "No second referendum in Scotland". Almost 14 million voted for that.

    Boris has no mandate to negotiate with Sturgeon.
    The big problem is how much of that 14 million was in Scotland.

    Massive problems ahead viz. the Union.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    moonshine said:

    If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.

    Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.

    Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
    Usually, he ends up chasing women.

    Don’t rule out that being his downfall again...
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629
    felix said:

    Guardian - Khalid Mahmood:

    "Labour MP Khalid Mahmood has doubled down on his scathing criticism of the party after its defeat in Hartlepool, saying Labour has become too focused on London-centric issues which are irrelevant to working-class people.

    In an article published on Friday, Mahmood said the Labour party had been captured by a “London-based bourgeoisie” and “brigades of woke social media warriors”."

    Even after the crushing electoral defeat labour supporters on Twitter, some of them at least, were saying the party shouldn’t chase the votes of ‘bigots’ and ‘racists’ in reference to Brexit supporters. I appreciate this is a smalle percentage but there does seem to be a concern in how social media works and how stuff plays out there.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    Jonathan said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It'll be easier for Johnson to refuse another referendum if the unionist parties have won an overall majority of votes, even if they haven't done so in terms of seats. At the moment they're on about 51.5% of the constituency vote.

    Agree

    If Unionist parties win more votes than separatist ones, then that's all Johnson will need.

    It's a good point, the SNP are basically relying (wholly) on some mathematical jiggery-pokery from the Greens in the list to get them over the line.

    They've come up short in both votes and seats.
    People seem to forget that the PM won an 80 seat majority on a manifesto that included "No second referendum in Scotland". Almost 14 million voted for that.

    Boris has no mandate to negotiate with Sturgeon.
    I guess he had no mandate to spend a ton of public money on things like furlough either. Things happen, deal with it.
    If 70%, 80% of Scotland voted for the prime party of independence, then yes, something would have happened. But nothing has happened in these elections to change the dynamic: Boris will refuse a second referendum, because his voters told him to.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,819
    murali_s said:

    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.

    I'm utterly astonished at this.

    In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.

    Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.

    Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.

    An outside chance perhaps but London is now very progressive - a relatively young, sophisticated and educated populace is never going to vote Tory willingly.

    I fear for the Tories in London.
    Are Bexley and Bromley, Ealing and Hillingdon, Brent and Harrow, Havering and Redbridge and West Central not parts of London ?
    Bexley, Bromley, Havering are not representative of what London is/(has) transforming(ed) to. These are the least multi-cultural parts of London.

    The other boroughs you mentioned have returned poor results for Sadiq - however, the constituency vote was much stronger for Labour I believe. So, yes Sadiq is under-performing as expected.
    My thoughts exactly. I know quite a few people who aren’t really all that left wing (or ‘woke’ for that matter), who don’t like Sadiq at all and think he’s useless but have no time whatsoever for the Conservative party. Results coming in are less of an endorsement of the Tory party and more of a reflection of the fact Khan, like Starmer, is not someone you feel that motivated to vote for.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It'll be easier for Johnson to refuse another referendum if the unionist parties have won an overall majority of votes, even if they haven't done so in terms of seats. At the moment they're on about 51.5% of the constituency vote.

    Agree

    If Unionist parties win more votes than separatist ones, then that's all Johnson will need.

    It's a good point, the SNP are basically relying (wholly) on some mathematical jiggery-pokery from the Greens in the list to get them over the line.

    They've come up short in both votes and seats.
    People seem to forget that the PM won an 80 seat majority on a manifesto that included "No second referendum in Scotland". Almost 14 million voted for that.

    Boris has no mandate to negotiate with Sturgeon.
    Massive problems ahead viz. the Union.
    I don't think this is true. Wales is in a happy place supporting unionist parties (Labour and Conservatives).

    Scotland at the moment is not pro independence. The split is something like 55-45 in favour of staying in the union.

    Which just leaves Northern Ireland. Now that is in a thorny place but it has been thus for a long time. Brexit has clearly shaken the Good Friday Agreement. No one wants troubles to build so there is good will on all sides to make the situation work peaceably.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,572
    murali_s said:

    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.

    I'm utterly astonished at this.

    In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.

    Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.

    Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.

    An outside chance perhaps but London is now very progressive - a relatively young, sophisticated and educated populace is never going to vote Tory willingly.

    I fear for the Tories in London.
    Are Bexley and Bromley, Ealing and Hillingdon, Brent and Harrow, Havering and Redbridge and West Central not parts of London ?
    Bexley, Bromley, Havering are not representative of what London is/(has) transforming(ed) to. These are the least multi-cultural parts of London.

    The other boroughs you mentioned have returned poor results for Sadiq - however, the constituency vote was much stronger for Labour I believe. So, yes Sadiq is under-performing as expected.
    Bailey will on 1st prefs take Barnet and Camden, Croydon and Sutton, South West. Khan has gone backwards THE MOST in North East.
    If Labour aren't going forward in London against one of the Tories' worst candidates in years then there's no realignment, there's just the Labour party losing it's old heartlands.
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629
    felix said:


    Julie Owen Moylan @JulieOwenMoylan

    Labour needs a listening exercise but from my experience of working class life I think the middle class left think it’s all food banks and poverty. That’s not the experience of most working class people. They own their houses and go on nice holidays. Lab doesn’t speak to them.

    Thats,certainly true of Hartlepool. People seemed to think, even on here, it was all grinding poverty and 5K houses when there are nice parts of the seat like Dalton Percy and Hart. The real issue for me is not why these areas left labour but why they still were supporting them.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    I do think we spend a lot of time on here churning over things which we think are important but which are less so to the majority of people. Wallpaper being an example. Scottish independence is probably another. There's no strong appetite north of the border to break away.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    Sheffield now has 13 Green councillors.

    I presume cutting down the trees has had quite a political impact.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639

    Sheffield now has 13 Green councillors.

    I presume cutting down the trees has had quite a political impact.

    Not Leavers but Leafers?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,380

    murali_s said:

    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.

    I'm utterly astonished at this.

    In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.

    Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.

    Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.

    An outside chance perhaps but London is now very progressive - a relatively young, sophisticated and educated populace is never going to vote Tory willingly.

    I fear for the Tories in London.
    Are Bexley and Bromley, Ealing and Hillingdon, Brent and Harrow, Havering and Redbridge and West Central not parts of London ?
    Bexley, Bromley, Havering are not representative of what London is/(has) transforming(ed) to. These are the least multi-cultural parts of London.

    The other boroughs you mentioned have returned poor results for Sadiq - however, the constituency vote was much stronger for Labour I believe. So, yes Sadiq is under-performing as expected.
    My thoughts exactly. I know quite a few people who aren’t really all that left wing (or ‘woke’ for that matter), who don’t like Sadiq at all and think he’s useless but have no time whatsoever for the Conservative party. Results coming in are less of an endorsement of the Tory party and more of a reflection of the fact Khan, like Starmer, is not someone you feel that motivated to vote for.
    Absolutely.

    I toyed in the polling booth with giving him a second preference, and then thought - why? he hasn’t deserved it?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 56,664
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Mark, cutting down a tree that may have been unusually resistant to Dutch Elm Disease was particularly stupid.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,380

    Sheffield now has 13 Green councillors.

    I presume cutting down the trees has had quite a political impact.

    A LD/Green administration would be good.
    Don’t know if that’s possible, maybe with support from an independent or two?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    I think the idea of a treaty is not a good one. For sure, less carrot more stick is probably the right thing to do this time - certainly in terms of cementing support in England - but whatever was in a treaty would just be ignored by the SNP.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,708
    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.

    I'm utterly astonished at this.

    In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.

    Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.

    Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.

    An outside chance perhaps but London is now very progressive - a relatively young, sophisticated and educated populace is never going to vote Tory willingly.

    I fear for the Tories in London.
    Are Bexley and Bromley, Ealing and Hillingdon, Brent and Harrow, Havering and Redbridge and West Central not parts of London ?
    Bexley, Bromley, Havering are not representative of what London is/(has) transforming(ed) to. These are the least multi-cultural parts of London.

    The other boroughs you mentioned have returned poor results for Sadiq - however, the constituency vote was much stronger for Labour I believe. So, yes Sadiq is under-performing as expected.
    Bailey will on 1st prefs take Barnet and Camden, Croydon and Sutton, South West. Khan has gone backwards THE MOST in North East.
    If Labour aren't going forward in London against one of the Tories' worst candidates in years then there's no realignment, there's just the Labour party losing it's old heartlands.

    Let's see what the Assembly votes are before we start talking about Labour going backwards in London. As things stand, it looks like very little change to 2016.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,380

    murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It'll be easier for Johnson to refuse another referendum if the unionist parties have won an overall majority of votes, even if they haven't done so in terms of seats. At the moment they're on about 51.5% of the constituency vote.

    Agree

    If Unionist parties win more votes than separatist ones, then that's all Johnson will need.

    It's a good point, the SNP are basically relying (wholly) on some mathematical jiggery-pokery from the Greens in the list to get them over the line.

    They've come up short in both votes and seats.
    People seem to forget that the PM won an 80 seat majority on a manifesto that included "No second referendum in Scotland". Almost 14 million voted for that.

    Boris has no mandate to negotiate with Sturgeon.
    Massive problems ahead viz. the Union.
    I don't think this is true. Wales is in a happy place supporting unionist parties (Labour and Conservatives).

    Scotland at the moment is not pro independence. The split is something like 55-45 in favour of staying in the union.

    Which just leaves Northern Ireland. Now that is in a thorny place but it has been thus for a long time. Brexit has clearly shaken the Good Friday Agreement. No one wants troubles to build so there is good will on all sides to make the situation work peaceably.
    The (moderately) good news in NI is that the DUP and to a lesser extent Sinn Fein are going backwards, and the non-crazy Alliance are going forward.

    There’s even a chance the Alliance take First Ministership next elections.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,532
    Taz said:

    felix said:


    Julie Owen Moylan @JulieOwenMoylan

    Labour needs a listening exercise but from my experience of working class life I think the middle class left think it’s all food banks and poverty. That’s not the experience of most working class people. They own their houses and go on nice holidays. Lab doesn’t speak to them.

    Thats,certainly true of Hartlepool. People seemed to think, even on here, it was all grinding poverty and 5K houses when there are nice parts of the seat like Dalton Percy and Hart. The real issue for me is not why these areas left labour but why they still were supporting them.
    I've just looked at my birthplace town of Sunderland in detail. Sunderland central would go blue on thses results and even the other 2 seats would be much more marginal. The same process is happening - Newcastle is rapidly becoming the only really safe area in the NE - a phenomenal change over the past 10-15 years.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,440
    edited May 8
    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.

    I'm utterly astonished at this.

    In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.

    Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.

    Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.

    An outside chance perhaps but London is now very progressive - a relatively young, sophisticated and educated populace is never going to vote Tory willingly.

    I fear for the Tories in London.
    Are Bexley and Bromley, Ealing and Hillingdon, Brent and Harrow, Havering and Redbridge and West Central not parts of London ?
    Bexley, Bromley, Havering are not representative of what London is/(has) transforming(ed) to. These are the least multi-cultural parts of London.

    The other boroughs you mentioned have returned poor results for Sadiq - however, the constituency vote was much stronger for Labour I believe. So, yes Sadiq is under-performing as expected.
    Bailey will on 1st prefs take Barnet and Camden, Croydon and Sutton, South West. Khan has gone backwards THE MOST in North East.
    If Labour aren't going forward in London against one of the Tories' worst candidates in years then there's no realignment, there's just the Labour party losing it's old heartlands.
    The signs of realignment seem to be more in the Surrey/Cambridge/Canterbury/Folkestone-type of areas, from what I can see, where Labour seem to be making some amounts of progress.

    Very thoughtful and tightly argued thread header, btw.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,532
    ydoethur said:

    Sheffield now has 13 Green councillors.

    I presume cutting down the trees has had quite a political impact.

    Not Leavers but Leafers?
    I suppose theyr'e branching out and in the process trunKating Labour in another of their heartlands. I know I'm being a bit [a]corny here but Labour are losing the pop[u]lar vote! :smiley:
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,532

    Sheffield now has 13 Green councillors.

    I presume cutting down the trees has had quite a political impact.

    A LD/Green administration would be good.
    Don’t know if that’s possible, maybe with support from an independent or two?
    I think for whatever reason LD/Green voters seem to be either/or right now.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,380
    On topic,

    I don’t believe there’s any legal or moral obligation to concede a referendum.

    However I agree that Westminster should get in front of the argument. Boris needs to announce a Commission on Devolution as quickly as possible.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,532

    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.

    I'm utterly astonished at this.

    In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.

    Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.

    Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.

    An outside chance perhaps but London is now very progressive - a relatively young, sophisticated and educated populace is never going to vote Tory willingly.

    I fear for the Tories in London.
    Are Bexley and Bromley, Ealing and Hillingdon, Brent and Harrow, Havering and Redbridge and West Central not parts of London ?
    Bexley, Bromley, Havering are not representative of what London is/(has) transforming(ed) to. These are the least multi-cultural parts of London.

    The other boroughs you mentioned have returned poor results for Sadiq - however, the constituency vote was much stronger for Labour I believe. So, yes Sadiq is under-performing as expected.
    Bailey will on 1st prefs take Barnet and Camden, Croydon and Sutton, South West. Khan has gone backwards THE MOST in North East.
    If Labour aren't going forward in London against one of the Tories' worst candidates in years then there's no realignment, there's just the Labour party losing it's old heartlands.

    Let's see what the Assembly votes are before we start talking about Labour going backwards in London. As things stand, it looks like very little change to 2016.

    In terms of votes I think the Tories may be up a little - which in itself suggests some of the polling earlier on was clearly wrong.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sheffield now has 13 Green councillors.

    I presume cutting down the trees has had quite a political impact.

    Not Leavers but Leafers?
    I suppose theyr'e branching out and in the process trunKating Labour in another of their heartlands. I know I'm being a bit [a]corny here but Labour are losing the pop[u]lar vote! :smiley:
    I'm getting sick o' more tree puns....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,572
    Labour probably needs FPTP more than the Tories tbh now.
    The Greens should probably put a big focus on Sheffield Central..
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,770
    edited May 8

    murali_s said:

    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.

    I'm utterly astonished at this.

    In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.

    Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.

    Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.

    An outside chance perhaps but London is now very progressive - a relatively young, sophisticated and educated populace is never going to vote Tory willingly.

    I fear for the Tories in London.
    Are Bexley and Bromley, Ealing and Hillingdon, Brent and Harrow, Havering and Redbridge and West Central not parts of London ?
    Bexley, Bromley, Havering are not representative of what London is/(has) transforming(ed) to. These are the least multi-cultural parts of London.

    The other boroughs you mentioned have returned poor results for Sadiq - however, the constituency vote was much stronger for Labour I believe. So, yes Sadiq is under-performing as expected.
    My thoughts exactly. I know quite a few people who aren’t really all that left wing (or ‘woke’ for that matter), who don’t like Sadiq at all and think he’s useless but have no time whatsoever for the Conservative party. Results coming in are less of an endorsement of the Tory party and more of a reflection of the fact Khan, like Starmer, is not someone you feel that motivated to vote for.
    Huge numbers (net) of “young, progressive” voters have left London (and indeed the country) as a twin result of Brexit and/or Covid. This must have some impact at an electoral level. (at a local level where they have/had votes)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,380
    felix said:

    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.

    I'm utterly astonished at this.

    In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.

    Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.

    Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.

    An outside chance perhaps but London is now very progressive - a relatively young, sophisticated and educated populace is never going to vote Tory willingly.

    I fear for the Tories in London.
    Are Bexley and Bromley, Ealing and Hillingdon, Brent and Harrow, Havering and Redbridge and West Central not parts of London ?
    Bexley, Bromley, Havering are not representative of what London is/(has) transforming(ed) to. These are the least multi-cultural parts of London.

    The other boroughs you mentioned have returned poor results for Sadiq - however, the constituency vote was much stronger for Labour I believe. So, yes Sadiq is under-performing as expected.
    Bailey will on 1st prefs take Barnet and Camden, Croydon and Sutton, South West. Khan has gone backwards THE MOST in North East.
    If Labour aren't going forward in London against one of the Tories' worst candidates in years then there's no realignment, there's just the Labour party losing it's old heartlands.

    Let's see what the Assembly votes are before we start talking about Labour going backwards in London. As things stand, it looks like very little change to 2016.

    In terms of votes I think the Tories may be up a little - which in itself suggests some of the polling earlier on was clearly wrong.
    Turnout?
    I wonder if overall vote was suppressed as Khan did not inspire.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,380

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sheffield now has 13 Green councillors.

    I presume cutting down the trees has had quite a political impact.

    Not Leavers but Leafers?
    I suppose theyr'e branching out and in the process trunKating Labour in another of their heartlands. I know I'm being a bit [a]corny here but Labour are losing the pop[u]lar vote! :smiley:
    I'm getting sick o' more tree puns....
    You little beech.
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,532

    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Pulpstar said:

    murali_s said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.

    I'm utterly astonished at this.

    In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.

    Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.

    Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.

    An outside chance perhaps but London is now very progressive - a relatively young, sophisticated and educated populace is never going to vote Tory willingly.

    I fear for the Tories in London.
    Are Bexley and Bromley, Ealing and Hillingdon, Brent and Harrow, Havering and Redbridge and West Central not parts of London ?
    Bexley, Bromley, Havering are not representative of what London is/(has) transforming(ed) to. These are the least multi-cultural parts of London.

    The other boroughs you mentioned have returned poor results for Sadiq - however, the constituency vote was much stronger for Labour I believe. So, yes Sadiq is under-performing as expected.
    Bailey will on 1st prefs take Barnet and Camden, Croydon and Sutton, South West. Khan has gone backwards THE MOST in North East.
    If Labour aren't going forward in London against one of the Tories' worst candidates in years then there's no realignment, there's just the Labour party losing it's old heartlands.
    The signs of realignment seem to be more in the Surrey/Cambridge/Canterbury/Folkestone type of areas, from what I can see, where Labour seems to be making some amounts of progress.

    Very thoughtful and tightly argued thread header, btw.
    Maybe - but it's very early days in these areas with very few low hanging fruit to be taken in one or even 2 electoral cycles.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,719
    Taz said:

    felix said:


    Julie Owen Moylan @JulieOwenMoylan

    Labour needs a listening exercise but from my experience of working class life I think the middle class left think it’s all food banks and poverty. That’s not the experience of most working class people. They own their houses and go on nice holidays. Lab doesn’t speak to them.

    Thats,certainly true of Hartlepool. People seemed to think, even on here, it was all grinding poverty and 5K houses when there are nice parts of the seat like Dalton Percy and Hart. The real issue for me is not why these areas left labour but why they still were supporting them.
    Worth remembering that Hartlepool was solid Labour, rather than ubersafe. It wasn't Bootle, Conservatives have generally been in a decent second place. And the demographics have changed- working age people moving out, older, especially retired people staying or moving in;
    https://jonn.substack.com/p/its-the-demographics-stupid

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013

    Andy_JS said:

    Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.

    I'm utterly astonished at this.

    In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.

    Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.

    Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.

    Remember though that the figures so far include the Conservative's best bits (Bexley/Bromley; Havering/Redbridge), whereas the really good Labour bits (City/East; Lewisham/Greenwich) are yet to enter the totaliser. Kahn's results are underwhelming, but not that bad. And the Conservative absorption of the UKIP vote in Havering doesn't look like it's at Hartlepool levels.

    And who is the Conservative candidate who had a shot? Not Rory- he'd been kicked out of the Cabinet and party as part of Johnson's relaunch. On the same basis, nobody like Rory. And the type of anti-metropolitan who is the core Conservative these days would struggle to appeal in the metropolis.
    Part of the reason for the low turnout was surely that it was never a competitive race, and the second vote system (a sort of abbreviated AV) allows people to express their true first choice. Khan will be comfortably home on second choices.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sheffield now has 13 Green councillors.

    I presume cutting down the trees has had quite a political impact.

    Not Leavers but Leafers?
    I suppose theyr'e branching out and in the process trunKating Labour in another of their heartlands. I know I'm being a bit [a]corny here but Labour are losing the pop[u]lar vote! :smiley:
    I'm getting sick o' more tree puns....
    You little beech.
    I’m regretting these puns myself. I may pull them from future threads.
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629
    I doubt Khalid Mahmoud comments will do anything to help labour. I doubt those he is targeting are ever going to get the message or agree with him. He will just end up pilloried and marginalised while the party carries on as it has done waiting for the stupid, bigoted, brexiteers to release the error of its ways and return to labour,
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 28,980
    edited May 8
    'they’d have wanted a triple mandate, with pro-independence majorities in MSPs, the list vote and the constituency vote'

    In what universe was a pro-independence majority on the list vote a possibility?
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629

    Taz said:

    felix said:


    Julie Owen Moylan @JulieOwenMoylan

    Labour needs a listening exercise but from my experience of working class life I think the middle class left think it’s all food banks and poverty. That’s not the experience of most working class people. They own their houses and go on nice holidays. Lab doesn’t speak to them.

    Thats,certainly true of Hartlepool. People seemed to think, even on here, it was all grinding poverty and 5K houses when there are nice parts of the seat like Dalton Percy and Hart. The real issue for me is not why these areas left labour but why they still were supporting them.
    Worth remembering that Hartlepool was solid Labour, rather than ubersafe. It wasn't Bootle, Conservatives have generally been in a decent second place. And the demographics have changed- working age people moving out, older, especially retired people staying or moving in;
    https://jonn.substack.com/p/its-the-demographics-stupid

    But that is, in itself, part of the problem in these left behind areas. Younger people moving out largely down to lack of opportunities.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,434
    edited May 8
    I see the bet for Count Binface (was at one time 8/1) to get more than 20K votes is doing well given he has 12K so far after half the count .

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,719
    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sheffield now has 13 Green councillors.

    I presume cutting down the trees has had quite a political impact.

    Not Leavers but Leafers?
    I suppose theyr'e branching out and in the process trunKating Labour in another of their heartlands. I know I'm being a bit [a]corny here but Labour are losing the pop[u]lar vote! :smiley:
    I'm getting sick o' more tree puns....
    You little beech.
    I’m regretting these puns myself. I may pull them from future threads.
    You may say that, but I'm sure your bark is worse than your bite on this matter.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    First preferences, leading candidate:

    1. Bexley & Bromley: Bailey by 56,280 votes
    2. Brent & Harrow: Bailey by 3,788 votes
    3. Ealing & Hillingdon: Bailey by 5,009 votes
    4. Havering & Redbridge: Bailey by 32,543 votes
    5. Lambeth & Southwark: Khan by 56,966 votes
    6. North East: Khan by 67,126 votes
    7. West Central: Bailey by 2,205 votes

    Overall for these 7 constituencies: Khan by 24,267


    Still to come:

    8. Barnet & Camden
    9. City & East
    10. Croydon & Sutton
    11. Enfield & Haringey
    12. Greenwich & Lewisham
    13. Merton & Wandsworth
    14. South West

    https://twitter.com/cinyc9/status/1390862191809777664
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 14,755
    Taz said:

    I doubt Khalid Mahmoud comments will do anything to help labour. I doubt those he is targeting are ever going to get the message or agree with him. He will just end up pilloried and marginalised while the party carries on as it has done waiting for the stupid, bigoted, brexiteers to release the error of its ways and return to labour,

    Seems to me like Starmer is listening if his comments yesterday are anything to go by. But we will see of course.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,572
    Labour has gone backwards, except West Central in the GLA results I've looked at so far. They match up more or less to the mayoralty.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 4,440
    edited May 8

    I see the bet for Count Binface (was at one time 8/1) to get more than 20K votes is doing well given he has 12K so far after half the count .

    The Binface ground operation has swept away Piers Corbyn almost into the rain-drenched gutters, but Professor Lawrence Fox still seems to be ahead of both.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 41,639
    It occurs to me that the party who come out of yesterday’s results worst are not Labour, but Plaid. Labour have won in London and got back to 30 in Wales (probably 31 as Jane Dodds, unexpectedly returned on the list to keep the corpse of the Yellows above ground a little longer, will back them if given a cabinet seat). But Plaid haven’t gained a single seat and gone backwards in key areas. Their leadership is divorced from both the membership and the voters, and is talking aimlessly about independence rather than about the bread and butter issues that will attract the Valleys or the language issues that will help them in the West. Their front bench looks short on talent, and Price himself can count himself rather fortunate that Carmarthen East is a rare seat where the Tories and Labour split the vote.

    I think that Rhun ab Iorwerth is likely to mount a challenge sooner rather than later. If there’s a market on Price to be out before the end of the year, there should be value.
  • JohnWheatleyJohnWheatley Posts: 140
    Good article David. Learning from past experience is not a bad rule in life.

    And seeing a mention for John Cole just reminded me how poor TV politics coverage is now. Where he gave intelligent analysis, we now get bland platitudes - except for the bloke on Newsnight
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 8,380
    edited May 8
    Deleted.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 14,755
    Actually relative to 2019 Labour has done better.

    Some signs of life in the South and Wales and even possibly in Scotland.

    In my view they could tie the Tories in terms of polling if Starmer is prepared to go to war with the minority of the membership that are loonies
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201
    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sheffield now has 13 Green councillors.

    I presume cutting down the trees has had quite a political impact.

    Not Leavers but Leafers?
    I suppose theyr'e branching out and in the process trunKating Labour in another of their heartlands. I know I'm being a bit [a]corny here but Labour are losing the pop[u]lar vote! :smiley:
    I'm getting sick o' more tree puns....
    You little beech.
    I’m regretting these puns myself. I may pull them from future threads.
    And who put you at the 'elm?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 67,572
    felix said:

    Taz said:

    felix said:


    Julie Owen Moylan @JulieOwenMoylan

    Labour needs a listening exercise but from my experience of working class life I think the middle class left think it’s all food banks and poverty. That’s not the experience of most working class people. They own their houses and go on nice holidays. Lab doesn’t speak to them.

    Thats,certainly true of Hartlepool. People seemed to think, even on here, it was all grinding poverty and 5K houses when there are nice parts of the seat like Dalton Percy and Hart. The real issue for me is not why these areas left labour but why they still were supporting them.
    I've just looked at my birthplace town of Sunderland in detail. Sunderland central would go blue on thses results and even the other 2 seats would be much more marginal. The same process is happening - Newcastle is rapidly becoming the only really safe area in the NE - a phenomenal change over the past 10-15 years.
    Yes, this is the Conservative side of any realignment going on; yet West Central in inner London is still held by the Tories and half of Sheffield is voting Green.
    It's just embarrassing from Labour tbh
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,434

    I see the bet for Count Binface (was at one time 8/1) to get more than 20K votes is doing well given he has 12K so far after half the count .

    The Binface ground operation and movement has swept away Piers Corbyn almost into the rain-drenched gutters, but Professor Lawrence Fox still seems to be ahead of both.
    Fox versus Omilana for best minnow and top 5 spot on a knife edge as well
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 3,434
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour has gone backwards, except West Central in the GLA results I've looked at so far. They match up more or less to the mayoralty.

    West Central will have a heavily Asian population . I think Bailey is picking up in areas of black voters and Khan asian ones . Which is probably natural if a little sad in a way
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    I think DH has the right approach in his header.

    Outline negotiations need to happen before a referendum, not after. Indeed it is questionable that we would have Brexited if the Oven Ready Deal had been put to the nation. Those looking at votes cast conveniently ignore that a majority of votes went to parties supporting a further Brexit vote in 2019.

    Considering the torrid time Sturgeon and the SNP have had in the courts these last months, it is an outstanding SNP performance. English MPs refusing a referendum requested by Scottish MPs will not just be an offence against democracy, but also stirs up even further the sense of Scottish grievance.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 19,632
    ydoethur said:

    It occurs to me that the party who come out of yesterday’s results worst are not Labour, but Plaid. Labour have won in London and got back to 30 in Wales (probably 31 as Jane Dodds, unexpectedly returned on the list to keep the corpse of the Yellows above ground a little longer, will back them if given a cabinet seat). But Plaid haven’t gained a single seat and gone backwards in key areas. Their leadership is divorced from both the membership and the voters, and is talking aimlessly about independence rather than about the bread and butter issues that will attract the Valleys or the language issues that will help them in the West. Their front bench looks short on talent, and Price himself can count himself rather fortunate that Carmarthen East is a rare seat where the Tories and Labour split the vote.

    I think that Rhun ab Iorwerth is likely to mount a challenge sooner rather than later. If there’s a market on Price to be out before the end of the year, there should be value.

    I haven’t followed the Welsh election closely, but every time I see it on the news the media are talking about Wales going independent.

    The idea of Wales going independent always seemed absurd to me but I assumed i was just out of touch. Turns out the media are the ones out of touch.
  • TazTaz Posts: 1,629

    Taz said:

    I doubt Khalid Mahmoud comments will do anything to help labour. I doubt those he is targeting are ever going to get the message or agree with him. He will just end up pilloried and marginalised while the party carries on as it has done waiting for the stupid, bigoted, brexiteers to release the error of its ways and return to labour,

    Seems to me like Starmer is listening if his comments yesterday are anything to go by. But we will see of course.

    Remains to be seen. To be honest I’ve heard it all before. We will listen, we will change, I’ll lead the change. Into the long grass. Nothing happens. Blame the voters. Rinse and repeat. They need to talk to people in these seats and find out what they want to improve their lives not tell them they are wrong for their views and stop worrying how stuff plays out on Twitter.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,172
    Something to be said for DH's analysis re Scotland but plainly not going to happen - having negotiations just makes it an inevitability more than it seems at moment. My thinking was whether he acknowledges pro indy majority against apparent lack of enthusiasm for indyref or independence as set out in polls and nevertheless announces an independent commission as broadly and fairly composed as possible (but plainly neither a SNP or UK government stitch up) to actually examine what independence notionally might mean and what a deal might have to look like. So similar outcome to what David seeking to achieve but not Boris sitting round a table doing a silly negotiation and dancing to her tune. In any event, I can't see the SNP ever agreeing to the deal on offer - they would want the mandate of a Yes and then UDI if RUK dicks around on the secession terms.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 14,755
    edited May 8
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    I doubt Khalid Mahmoud comments will do anything to help labour. I doubt those he is targeting are ever going to get the message or agree with him. He will just end up pilloried and marginalised while the party carries on as it has done waiting for the stupid, bigoted, brexiteers to release the error of its ways and return to labour,

    Seems to me like Starmer is listening if his comments yesterday are anything to go by. But we will see of course.

    Remains to be seen. To be honest I’ve heard it all before. We will listen, we will change, I’ll lead the change. Into the long grass. Nothing happens. Blame the voters. Rinse and repeat. They need to talk to people in these seats and find out what they want to improve their lives not tell them they are wrong for their views and stop worrying how stuff plays out on Twitter.
    I completely agree with you and I have grown tired of it too. As I mentioned, Starmer has a year for me then it’s time to make way for somebody else.

    I am going to be fascinated to see how the polling looks over the next few weeks/months. The 6 point average seems about right and matches with the LE results - how much of that is the vaccine “bounce” as seemingly Labour has seen in Wales?

    Perhaps call me arrogant but this is in no way as bad for Labour as reported. Don’t get me wrong it’s terrible but it is not death for the party. Not yet - Starmer has got just a bit of time to turn it around. But time is rapidly running out.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 26,013
    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    It occurs to me that the party who come out of yesterday’s results worst are not Labour, but Plaid. Labour have won in London and got back to 30 in Wales (probably 31 as Jane Dodds, unexpectedly returned on the list to keep the corpse of the Yellows above ground a little longer, will back them if given a cabinet seat). But Plaid haven’t gained a single seat and gone backwards in key areas. Their leadership is divorced from both the membership and the voters, and is talking aimlessly about independence rather than about the bread and butter issues that will attract the Valleys or the language issues that will help them in the West. Their front bench looks short on talent, and Price himself can count himself rather fortunate that Carmarthen East is a rare seat where the Tories and Labour split the vote.

    I think that Rhun ab Iorwerth is likely to mount a challenge sooner rather than later. If there’s a market on Price to be out before the end of the year, there should be value.

    I haven’t followed the Welsh election closely, but every time I see it on the news the media are talking about Wales going independent.

    The idea of Wales going independent always seemed absurd to me but I assumed i was just out of touch. Turns out the media are the ones out of touch.
    The Welsh Labour Party has been very astute at keeping the "Indycurious" onside, but true independence for Wales is always going to be tough economically, but also the length of the border, the substantial English population in Wales, and the lack of decent internal links between North and South Wales makes it much harder than Scottish Independence. I see a push for more devolved powers though.

    Johnsons act doesn't appeal much outside England, and that sense of English arrogance to the other three nations is the biggest threat to the Union.
This discussion has been closed.