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In the betting the money goes on Starmer going before the end of next year – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    Are they still counting votes anywhere, or is it a case of waiting for tomorrow for more results?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    As ever John Denham wrote some interesting stuff earlier about the correlation between identifying as primarily English and the Tory vote.

    If I was Starmer or whoever ends up leading Labour, I'd come out and support an English Parliament and make the case that it redresses the devolution imbalances and prioritises English issues and needs.

    I'm Welsh, and I think it's the right thing to do. Nothing to lose, so might as well be radical. Accompany with it with devo-max for Scotland and Wales and a slimmed down Westminster as Parliament of the Isles too and you might have a platform.

    What do Labour have to lose given the hole they are in?

    Will never happen. The only way we get an English Parliament is if the UK completely disintegrates and one therefore arises by default.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    As ever John Denham wrote some interesting stuff earlier about the correlation between identifying as primarily English and the Tory vote.

    If I was Starmer or whoever ends up leading Labour, I'd come out and support an English Parliament and make the case that it redresses the devolution imbalances and prioritises English issues and needs.

    I'm Welsh, and I think it's the right thing to do. Nothing to lose, so might as well be radical. Accompany with it with devo-max for Scotland and Wales and a slimmed down Westminster as Parliament of the Isles too and you might have a platform.

    What do Labour have to lose given the hole they are in?

    Will never happen. The only way we get an English Parliament is if the UK completely disintegrates and one therefore arises by default.
    We can live in hope.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Floater said:

    I just saw in Telegraph that the Lib Dems are in negative territory re councillors in England this election.

    I thought they had been doing ok?

    Exceeded low expectations maybe. The Greens have done well.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171

    As ever John Denham wrote some interesting stuff earlier about the correlation between identifying as primarily English and the Tory vote.

    If I was Starmer or whoever ends up leading Labour, I'd come out and support an English Parliament and make the case that it redresses the devolution imbalances and prioritises English issues and needs.

    I'm Welsh, and I think it's the right thing to do. Nothing to lose, so might as well be radical. Accompany with it with devo-max for Scotland and Wales and a slimmed down Westminster as Parliament of the Isles too and you might have a platform.

    What do Labour have to lose given the hole they are in?

    Many Labour activists and members instinctively dislike anything that explicitly acknowledges Englishness.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,772
    edited May 2021

    “Boris will end up driving many people clinically insane. Someone they regard as little more than a circus clown gets Brexit over the line with little disturbance, gets Britain out of pandemic before everyone else, and pulverises the Labour party into existential dread”

    https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1390791262589050880?s=21

    If Boris was the main problem for Labour it wouldn’t be so bad. In reality, they are struggling with a lot of issues that many left of centre parties are in the West, with perhaps the exception of the Democrats in America and Labour in New Zealand. I suppose at least they aren’t completely finished like the SDP in Germany or the French Socialist party.
    But they are in serious trouble. Crudely put, they could try to ape the US Democrats, but for the fact that (a) there aren't enough ethnic minority voters in Britain and (b) the Democrats don't need the backing of a secessionist movement, hostile to the continued existence of the Union and voter repellent to most of the electorate, to win. Problems, problems...
    Additionally they don’t have the same advantage as the Democrats in having a completely batshit insane opposition party (that likely drives a lot of reasonable-minded centrist voters into supporting them by default). Don’t get me wrong, I can totally understand why people would be put off by and have a great dislike of the modern Tory party, but they haven’t quite gone through the looking glass in the same way as the GOP....

    EDIT: yet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    Floater said:

    I just saw in Telegraph that the Lib Dems are in negative territory re councillors in England this election.

    I thought they had been doing ok?

    Collapse in Cornwall.
    Doesn't bode well for them in similar areas then. Big change in the number of seats on the council there, but from the looks of it still a terrible result.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Andy_JS said:

    Are they still counting votes anywhere, or is it a case of waiting for tomorrow for more results?

    Tomorrow? Luxury!

    We have to wait until Sunday for the West Yorkshire mayoral result.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Floater said:

    I just saw in Telegraph that the Lib Dems are in negative territory re councillors in England this election.

    I thought they had been doing ok?

    Collapse in Cornwall.
    So angry fisherman vote not so significant then?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MattW said:

    It looks like the Union lives to fight another day. For now..

    Thank Christ.

    I'm a bit confused about where you get that conclusion. For all his good leader ratings, Labour and Tories have lost further constituency seats to the SNP. The Greens seem to be polling strongly on the lists, so Labour and Tories may well lose list seats to the Greens. There will be a massive Holyrood Parliamentary majority for a second referendum. Then, either a referendum happens, which seems set to be tighter than the last one, or Johnson blocks it, and outrage at the anti-democratic response from London risks having the same effect as the executions following the Easter Rising did on support for Irish Independence.
    There won’t be a ‘massive’ parliamentary majority but I concede there will be one. As for gaming it, it’s difficult to predict really. Just because London says no it doesn’t naturally follow that the majority of the electorate that voted for anti-referendum parties are going to naturally shift to a pro-referendum position. In all likelihood things will stay uncomfortably balanced for the foreseeable future in that damning zone of 52-48 either way, give or take.

    I suspect Scotland is in a bit of a limbo until the time that either a) there is such an irrefutable will for Scottish independence that it simply becomes too difficult to ignore without causing civil strife or b) the SNP give confidence and supply to a Labour government at Westminster. I don’t think the Tories want it to happen on their watch so they will do everything in their power to not be the ones left holding the baby. If that means sticking it out for a few years and saying no, so be it.
    I wonder if now that the Election is out of the way (subject to final result ... ) anyone will begin addressing the manifest Governance problems at Holyrood, and the aspects of devolution everywhere which qualify as a series of dogs' breakfasts?
    QTWTAIN. The SNP have no incentive to reform the dogs' breakfast because it suits them down to the ground. The Tories have no incentive to fuck about with the system either because the Scottish electorate hates them and it would therefore require tremendous effort for absolutely no reward. Best to abandon Scotland to rot and focus all their energies elsewhere.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    “Boris will end up driving many people clinically insane. Someone they regard as little more than a circus clown gets Brexit over the line with little disturbance, gets Britain out of pandemic before everyone else, and pulverises the Labour party into existential dread”

    https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1390791262589050880?s=21

    If Boris was the main problem for Labour it wouldn’t be so bad. In reality, they are struggling with a lot of issues that many left of centre parties are in the West, with perhaps the exception of the Democrats in America and Labour in New Zealand. I suppose at least they aren’t completely finished like the SDP in Germany or the French Socialist party.
    Labour are just a little bit newer to pasokification than continental Europe. Metro Labour and shire LDs are the best chance of chucking out the Tories.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Andy_JS said:

    Are they still counting votes anywhere, or is it a case of waiting for tomorrow for more results?

    Wales has declared 2 out of 5 regions. Don't see why they would stop now. But don't quote me on that.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Just seen this

    Telscombe (East Sussex) council result:

    Lab: 45.0% (+20.2)
    Con: 42.7% (-11.3)
    LDem: 6.3% (-1.3)
    Grn: 6.0% (+2.3)

    Lab GAIN from Con

  • 3ChordTrick3ChordTrick Posts: 98
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Are they still counting votes anywhere, or is it a case of waiting for tomorrow for more results?

    Wales has declared 2 out of 5 regions. Don't see why they would stop now. But don't quote me on that.
    Should have Mid Wales and West Region by midnight apparently, rest tomorrow.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Floater said:

    Just seen this

    Telscombe (East Sussex) council result:

    Lab: 45.0% (+20.2)
    Con: 42.7% (-11.3)
    LDem: 6.3% (-1.3)
    Grn: 6.0% (+2.3)

    Lab GAIN from Con

    The new Labour heartland. Bloody Sussex.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    Just seen this

    Telscombe (East Sussex) council result:

    Lab: 45.0% (+20.2)
    Con: 42.7% (-11.3)
    LDem: 6.3% (-1.3)
    Grn: 6.0% (+2.3)

    Lab GAIN from Con

    The new Labour heartland. Bloody Sussex.
    From small acorns... :wink:
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Floater said:

    Just seen this

    Telscombe (East Sussex) council result:

    Lab: 45.0% (+20.2)
    Con: 42.7% (-11.3)
    LDem: 6.3% (-1.3)
    Grn: 6.0% (+2.3)

    Lab GAIN from Con

    There have been a small handful of big Labour wins in the SE counties. One in Folkestone and another in Canterbury.
  • 3ChordTrick3ChordTrick Posts: 98
    Andy_JS said:

    As ever John Denham wrote some interesting stuff earlier about the correlation between identifying as primarily English and the Tory vote.

    If I was Starmer or whoever ends up leading Labour, I'd come out and support an English Parliament and make the case that it redresses the devolution imbalances and prioritises English issues and needs.

    I'm Welsh, and I think it's the right thing to do. Nothing to lose, so might as well be radical. Accompany with it with devo-max for Scotland and Wales and a slimmed down Westminster as Parliament of the Isles too and you might have a platform.

    What do Labour have to lose given the hole they are in?

    Many Labour activists and members instinctively dislike anything that explicitly acknowledges Englishness.
    Oh I know. And as long as they do, I really think they have no hope of competing with the Tories outside the Cities and their hinterlands.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Chameleon said:

    “Boris will end up driving many people clinically insane. Someone they regard as little more than a circus clown gets Brexit over the line with little disturbance, gets Britain out of pandemic before everyone else, and pulverises the Labour party into existential dread”

    https://twitter.com/macaesbruno/status/1390791262589050880?s=21

    If Boris was the main problem for Labour it wouldn’t be so bad. In reality, they are struggling with a lot of issues that many left of centre parties are in the West, with perhaps the exception of the Democrats in America and Labour in New Zealand. I suppose at least they aren’t completely finished like the SDP in Germany or the French Socialist party.
    Labour are just a little bit newer to pasokification than continental Europe. Metro Labour and shire LDs are the best chance of chucking out the Tories.
    Leaving the Tories to retreat to their heartlands. The Potteries and County Durham.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    alex_ said:

    Floater said:

    I just saw in Telegraph that the Lib Dems are in negative territory re councillors in England this election.

    I thought they had been doing ok?

    Collapse in Cornwall.
    So angry fisherman vote not so significant then?
    Well, quite. The fishing industry’s economic significance is somewhere between Stilton cheese and the remnant coal mines, and why we continue to afford it such importance, I have no idea.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    London mayor, first preferences:

    Khan 487,104
    Bailey 462,837

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c27kz1m3j9mt/london-elections-2021

    This page doesn't give second preferences atm.

    With Khan at 39% before inner London declares, he should manage mid 40's percentage first preferences, finishing on 55-60%
    Still not great against a garbage Tory candidate. I'm a Tory member and never even considered voting for that pillock!
    Looking at Havering & Redbridge, the Labour AM candidate got 62,000 votes, the Labour AM List got 56,000 votes, but Khan for mayor got just 50,000, actually just under. So 20% of Labour AM voters shopped elsewhere for mayor.

    For the Tories, Bailey did better than the AM candidate, even though he was defending, and well known being former council leader in one Borough and former councillor in the other.

    I do wonder how much of that anomaly might be due to the design of the mayoral ballot paper, which had four columns, depending how you count them, with instructions to use one or two columns. I might not be the sharpest flag up the pole but it took me a few seconds to work out what was meant, and then to find Sadiq in the bottom right corner.
    Surely just to do with having 20 choices for Mayor, and a second vote that makes it "safe" to express a wacky first preference, as opposed to having only 6 choices for AM, and a stronger incentive for tactical voting?
    Yes, that is true but it is equally true for Sadiq and Shaun Bailey supporters.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    dixiedean said:

    Floater said:

    Just seen this

    Telscombe (East Sussex) council result:

    Lab: 45.0% (+20.2)
    Con: 42.7% (-11.3)
    LDem: 6.3% (-1.3)
    Grn: 6.0% (+2.3)

    Lab GAIN from Con

    There have been a small handful of big Labour wins in the SE counties. One in Folkestone and another in Canterbury.
    The blue underbelly is soft. Things to come.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555

    Floater said:

    Just seen this

    Telscombe (East Sussex) council result:

    Lab: 45.0% (+20.2)
    Con: 42.7% (-11.3)
    LDem: 6.3% (-1.3)
    Grn: 6.0% (+2.3)

    Lab GAIN from Con

    The new Labour heartland. Bloody Sussex.
    We have more Labour MPs than Scotland.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,894
    1st prefs so far
    Khan Tory
    2016 560949 465158
    2021 487104 462837
    -73845 -2321

    1st prefs to come

    2016 587767 444597
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Just seen this

    Telscombe (East Sussex) council result:

    Lab: 45.0% (+20.2)
    Con: 42.7% (-11.3)
    LDem: 6.3% (-1.3)
    Grn: 6.0% (+2.3)

    Lab GAIN from Con

    The new Labour heartland. Bloody Sussex.
    From small acorns... :wink:
    Labour gain Sevenoaks?
    The Greens have narrowly won the Tonbridge county seat this evening, a quite remarkable result.

    https://democracy.kent.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=668&RPID=40885519

    Overall though the Tories have comfortably held Kent county council with 61 councillors to 6 LDs, 5 Labour and 4 Greens

    https://democracy.kent.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=32&RPID=42043451
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    Floater said:

    Just seen this

    Telscombe (East Sussex) council result:

    Lab: 45.0% (+20.2)
    Con: 42.7% (-11.3)
    LDem: 6.3% (-1.3)
    Grn: 6.0% (+2.3)

    Lab GAIN from Con

    The new Labour heartland. Bloody Sussex.
    When it comes to lands of the Saxons I am strictly a Wessex, or Nussex man.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Jonathan said:

    dixiedean said:

    Floater said:

    Just seen this

    Telscombe (East Sussex) council result:

    Lab: 45.0% (+20.2)
    Con: 42.7% (-11.3)
    LDem: 6.3% (-1.3)
    Grn: 6.0% (+2.3)

    Lab GAIN from Con

    There have been a small handful of big Labour wins in the SE counties. One in Folkestone and another in Canterbury.
    The blue underbelly is soft. Things to come.
    The Tory underbelly is soft for the LDs, not for Labour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,894
    Labour - going backwards in what was supposed to be their bright spot of London. Party just a shambles tbh.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Just seen this

    Telscombe (East Sussex) council result:

    Lab: 45.0% (+20.2)
    Con: 42.7% (-11.3)
    LDem: 6.3% (-1.3)
    Grn: 6.0% (+2.3)

    Lab GAIN from Con

    The new Labour heartland. Bloody Sussex.
    From small acorns... :wink:
    Labour gain Sevenoaks?
    Sevenoaks Town county seat went LD, the Sevenoaks rural county seats stayed Tory
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    Floater said:

    Just seen this

    Telscombe (East Sussex) council result:

    Lab: 45.0% (+20.2)
    Con: 42.7% (-11.3)
    LDem: 6.3% (-1.3)
    Grn: 6.0% (+2.3)

    Lab GAIN from Con

    I assume this is the Brighton effect.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    Let's not forget there's another Westminster by-election next Thursday in Airdrie and Shotts. Probably won't be very interesting, and turnout could be painfully low.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Why do political parties become so intent on hysteria .Labour did well in Wales , okay in Scotland compared to recent times and badly in England . All 3 leaders benefited from having lots of exposure and the vaccine rollout and feel good factor of life returning more towards normal clearly helped . Hartlepool was hardly a surprise given the large BP vote there .

    Labour need to get a grip and stop this self-flaggelation . Stop the infighting and come up with some decent policies and go from there . If they’re still well behind in the polls next year then fine but enough with this psychodrama !



  • 3ChordTrick3ChordTrick Posts: 98
    Mid and West Wales regional list

    Labour 2
    Plaid 1
    Lib Dem 1

    Labour hit 30

    Lib Dems saved from wipe-out.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Andy_JS said:

    Let's not forget there's another Westminster by-election next Thursday in Airdrie and Shotts. Probably won't be very interesting, and turnout could be painfully low.

    But then we should get Batley & Spen a few weeks after that. Could be more noteworthy...?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171

    Mid and West Wales regional list

    Labour 2
    Plaid 1
    Lib Dem 1

    Labour hit 30

    Lib Dems saved from wipe-out.

    Labour always seem to win 29 or 30 seats.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2021
    Mid and West Wales regional seats

    2 Lab (unchanged)
    1 Plaid (unchanged)
    1 LD (+1)

    UKIP lost 1

    LD list seat comes in compensation of losing Brecon & Radnorshire
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    nico679 said:

    Why do political parties become so intent on hysteria .Labour did well in Wales , okay in Scotland compared to recent times and badly in England . All 3 leaders benefited from having lots of exposure and the vaccine rollout and feel good factor of life returning more towards normal clearly helped . Hartlepool was hardly a surprise given the large BP vote there .

    Labour need to get a grip and stop this self-flaggelation . Stop the infighting and come up with some decent policies and go from there . If they’re still well behind in the polls next year then fine but enough with this psychodrama !



    I agree. Front loading the shockingly bad results may help. Hartlepool and the rest of the NE came first.
    Nothing which follows can be quite as bad. Corbyn may actually have been useful for once.
    Came across as disappointed but not bitter and offered constructive advice.
    If supremely obvious. Only the merest hint of passive aggression.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    Floater said:

    Just seen this

    Telscombe (East Sussex) council result:

    Lab: 45.0% (+20.2)
    Con: 42.7% (-11.3)
    LDem: 6.3% (-1.3)
    Grn: 6.0% (+2.3)

    Lab GAIN from Con

    Fringes of Brighton, cheaper housing. Lefty, woke Brightonites are spreading east and west in pursuit of cheaper homes/rents, because Londoners are taking over Brighton and Hove. We'll reach Tunbridge Wells soon.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171

    Andy_JS said:

    Let's not forget there's another Westminster by-election next Thursday in Airdrie and Shotts. Probably won't be very interesting, and turnout could be painfully low.

    But then we should get Batley & Spen a few weeks after that. Could be more noteworthy...?
    Also Chesham & Amersham where I have a hunch the LDs could get pretty close to winning,
  • 3ChordTrick3ChordTrick Posts: 98
    Andy_JS said:

    Mid and West Wales regional list

    Labour 2
    Plaid 1
    Lib Dem 1

    Labour hit 30

    Lib Dems saved from wipe-out.

    Labour always seem to win 29 or 30 seats.
    They've hit 30 seats once before. 2003 under the leadership of Rhodri Morgan.

    If I'm Jane Dodds (Lib Dem), I'm straight on the phone to Drakeford offering her vote to take Labour over the line. Meaning Labour won't need Plaid at all.

    There's form for this with Kirsty Williams sitting in the Cabinet last time round.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    Mid and West Wales regional seats

    2 Lab (unchanged)
    1 Con (unchanged)
    1 LD (+1)

    UKIP and Plaid lost 1 each

    LD list seat comes in compensation of losing Brecon & Radnorshire

    Lab-LD coalition to continue? Or not?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314

    Floater said:

    Just seen this

    Telscombe (East Sussex) council result:

    Lab: 45.0% (+20.2)
    Con: 42.7% (-11.3)
    LDem: 6.3% (-1.3)
    Grn: 6.0% (+2.3)

    Lab GAIN from Con

    The new Labour heartland. Bloody Sussex.
    Oi! Some of us down here are northerners dedicated to recreating God's own (Labour) county in Sussex.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Thank you all - what a wonderful day.
  • 3ChordTrick3ChordTrick Posts: 98
    dixiedean said:

    Mid and West Wales regional seats

    2 Lab (unchanged)
    1 Con (unchanged)
    1 LD (+1)

    UKIP and Plaid lost 1 each

    LD list seat comes in compensation of losing Brecon & Radnorshire

    Lab-LD coalition to continue? Or not?
    @AndreaParma_82 Cons lost regional seat to Plaid due to winning Brecon.

    Jane Dodds should be straight on the phone to Drakeford. He might be tempted as means he won't need Plaid at all.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    What are Labour's chances of going beyond 30 seats in Wales?
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2021

    dixiedean said:

    Mid and West Wales regional seats

    2 Lab (unchanged)
    1 Con (unchanged)
    1 LD (+1)

    UKIP and Plaid lost 1 each

    LD list seat comes in compensation of losing Brecon & Radnorshire

    Lab-LD coalition to continue? Or not?
    @AndreaParma_82 Cons lost regional seat to Plaid due to winning Brecon.

    Jane Dodds should be straight on the phone to Drakeford. He might be tempted as means he won't need Plaid at all.
    Yes, I wrongly typed.
    Actually, Con didn't even lose it as they didn't have a regional seat here. UKIP lost the seat. LD compensated constituency loss with list gain.
    Labour and Plaid remained unchanged in the region.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Andy_JS said:

    Mid and West Wales regional list

    Labour 2
    Plaid 1
    Lib Dem 1

    Labour hit 30

    Lib Dems saved from wipe-out.

    Labour always seem to win 29 or 30 seats.
    They go as low as 26, but no higher than 30, it seems. Says something about consistency.
  • 3ChordTrick3ChordTrick Posts: 98
    Andy_JS said:

    What are Labour's chances of going beyond 30 seats in Wales?

    Very very slim. South Wales East and Central to declare tomorrow but these are Labour heartlands. They are very unlikely to pick up a list seat.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    Just seen this

    Telscombe (East Sussex) council result:

    Lab: 45.0% (+20.2)
    Con: 42.7% (-11.3)
    LDem: 6.3% (-1.3)
    Grn: 6.0% (+2.3)

    Lab GAIN from Con

    The new Labour heartland. Bloody Sussex.
    When it comes to lands of the Saxons I am strictly a Wessex, or Nussex man.
    It's Middlesex that's most controversial. Same as always!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314

    Thank you all - what a wonderful day.

    It's been an absolute pleasure. I'm hoping we've lulled you into a false sense of security pending the next GE...... though I'm not sure.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Now that is a swing (albeit with same candidate)

    Hapton with Park (Burnley) council result:

    Con: 78.4% (+67.5)
    Lab: 15.0% (-22.9)
    Grn: 6.6% (+6.6)

    No UKIP (-43.1) as prev.

    Con GAIN from UKIP*
    *Conservative candidate was the UKIP councillor


    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1390729600569942019
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    Andy_JS said:

    Let's not forget there's another Westminster by-election next Thursday in Airdrie and Shotts. Probably won't be very interesting, and turnout could be painfully low.

    Must say that "Airdrie and Shotts" sounds like a very "exclusive" store selling over-priced gift baskets & the like, with a glossy catalog and fancy website.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    Andy_JS said:

    What are Labour's chances of going beyond 30 seats in Wales?

    Very very slim. South Wales East and Central to declare tomorrow but these are Labour heartlands. They are very unlikely to pick up a list seat.
    Yep. They've won all but one of the constituency seats in those.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Thank you all - what a wonderful day.

    It's been an absolute pleasure. I'm hoping we've lulled you into a false sense of security pending the next GE...... though I'm not sure.
    Not sure you've lulled me, or not sure it's false? :smile:
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    The number of female MPs is back at 220 again, the highest it's ever been.

    It'll be 221 if the SNP win the Airdrie & Shotts by-election next week, a new record.

    https://twitter.com/AnumQaisarJaved
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    Just seen this

    Telscombe (East Sussex) council result:

    Lab: 45.0% (+20.2)
    Con: 42.7% (-11.3)
    LDem: 6.3% (-1.3)
    Grn: 6.0% (+2.3)

    Lab GAIN from Con

    The new Labour heartland. Bloody Sussex.
    When it comes to lands of the Saxons I am strictly a Wessex, or Nussex man.
    It's Middlesex that's most controversial. Same as always!
    Oh. Don't bring up the trans debate at this late hour ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    kle4 said:

    Floater said:

    Just seen this

    Telscombe (East Sussex) council result:

    Lab: 45.0% (+20.2)
    Con: 42.7% (-11.3)
    LDem: 6.3% (-1.3)
    Grn: 6.0% (+2.3)

    Lab GAIN from Con

    The new Labour heartland. Bloody Sussex.
    When it comes to lands of the Saxons I am strictly a Wessex, or Nussex man.
    It's Middlesex that's most controversial. Same as always!
    I cannot abide those always seeking to be in the middle of things. Ahem.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    edited May 2021


    Not sure you've lulled me, or not sure it's false? :smile:

    Both, of course.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    Thank you all - what a wonderful day.

    More to come tomorrow, Sunday and even Monday.
    I'm getting to like this extended psephology porn.
    Congratulations on a great day for your team.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    Andy_JS said:

    Let's not forget there's another Westminster by-election next Thursday in Airdrie and Shotts. Probably won't be very interesting, and turnout could be painfully low.

    Must say that "Airdrie and Shotts" sounds like a very "exclusive" store selling over-priced gift baskets & the like, with a glossy catalog and fancy website.
    You obviously haven't been there...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    I feel like campaigning as a local councillor must be a difficult thing much of the time. It can absolutely make the difference (so it is not good simply bemoaning outside influences) and you can go against national trends, for good and ill, but a lot of good cllrs will still fall because of national trends and some awful candidates win because of it.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    @Dura_Ace How lethal is this going to be then? Kiwi and guava halves stuff?

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1390715116052701188?s=20

    It doesn't really matter. The project is for the frottage of national vanity and corporate welfare for BAES.

    The numbers are ludicrous because the UK doesn't have enough heavy transport to move that many MBTs around so it'll be quietly optimised once the afterglow of the announcement.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Also, any sign of Green surging? Are they doing well, but letting Tories in through the backdoor? (I'm actually surprised not to have seen that suggested more, parties love to consider others standing as being splitters)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460

    Floater said:

    I just saw in Telegraph that the Lib Dems are in negative territory re councillors in England this election.

    I thought they had been doing ok?

    Collapse in Cornwall.
    Used to Yellow Peril central.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    The spreading out of results in May 2021 is somewhat reminiscent of how UK general elections used to be conducted up through (IIRC) 1905. When polling days took place over the span of a week or so, producing a similar roller coaster effect.

    As in this election, different days featured different constituencies with differing political profiles. For example, the first day of polling in the 1905 GE was a disaster for the Tories, one of their signature loses was recent Prime Minister Arthur Balfour, while Liberals were cheered by the victory of ex-Tory Winston Churchill.

    First group of seats was skewed toward the Liberals, so Conservatives had hopes of redressing the balance in subsequent days polling in better turf for them. But it was not to be. Final result was historic Liberal landslide.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited May 2021
    What a weird place the entertainment industry is...just bants, constantly getting your cock out and wapping it on a ladies car windscreen...hilarious.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9554185/John-Barrowman-admits-exposed-Doctor-set.html
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    kle4 said:

    I feel like campaigning as a local councillor must be a difficult thing much of the time. It can absolutely make the difference (so it is not good simply bemoaning outside influences) and you can go against national trends, for good and ill, but a lot of good cllrs will still fall because of national trends and some awful candidates win because of it.

    Yes. That's show biz.

    To (ab)use another metaphor, politics is a blood sport. And sometimes bloodier at the local than the national level
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342

    What a weird place the entertainment industry is...just bants, constantly getting your cock out and wapping it on a ladies car windscreen...hilarious.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9554185/John-Barrowman-admits-exposed-Doctor-set.html

    Not a transferable skill for teaching.
    Or so I was angrily told.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited May 2021
    Bloody flag shaggers....

    Labour head office was “obsessed with us getting a flag”, said one organiser, bemoaning what they felt was a lack of substance to justify it. “There was no fleshing out what the flag means, or what policies have changed because we’re now patriotic. It was just: bung a flag up.”

    A fortnight before polling day, party activists were told to hand out St George’s flag leaflets urging voters to “display this poster with pride in your window”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/07/obsessed-with-the-flag-labour-recriminations-begin-in-hartlepool
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    kle4 said:

    Also, any sign of Green surging? Are they doing well, but letting Tories in through the backdoor? (I'm actually surprised not to have seen that suggested more, parties love to consider others standing as being splitters)

    Beeb have the Greens at 78 councillors, up 51 from equivalent seats last time. Not at all convertible to GE seats though.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 22,703
    nico679 said:

    Why do political parties become so intent on hysteria .Labour did well in Wales , okay in Scotland compared to recent times and badly in England . All 3 leaders benefited from having lots of exposure and the vaccine rollout and feel good factor of life returning more towards normal clearly helped . Hartlepool was hardly a surprise given the large BP vote there .

    Labour need to get a grip and stop this self-flaggelation . Stop the infighting and come up with some decent policies and go from there . If they’re still well behind in the polls next year then fine but enough with this psychodrama !

    It won't stop.

    It's a rat and a rabbit in a sack.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549

    What a weird place the entertainment industry is...just bants, constantly getting your cock out and wapping it on a ladies car windscreen...hilarious.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9554185/John-Barrowman-admits-exposed-Doctor-set.html

    Is the PM embarked on yet another election campaign tour?

    What you might call premature communication of his platform.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited May 2021
    dixiedean said:

    What a weird place the entertainment industry is...just bants, constantly getting your cock out and wapping it on a ladies car windscreen...hilarious.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9554185/John-Barrowman-admits-exposed-Doctor-set.html

    Not a transferable skill for teaching.
    Or so I was angrily told.
    Can you imagine any other industry that wouldn't get you instantly sacked. Listening to Under the Cosh, lower league football seems to be one, but I don't think you get away with that stuff in the big league these days.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    I'm watching Sunderland 'Till I Die. It provides massive insight into NE politics over the past few years. To quote a man in E1S1, 'If the club doesn't do good, we haven't got much going for us. It's just another nail in the coffin.'
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited May 2021
    Chameleon said:

    I'm watching Sunderland 'Till I Die. It provides massive insight into NE politics over the past few years. To quote a man in E1S1, 'If the club doesn't do good, we haven't got much going for us. It's just another nail in the coffin.'

    Good documentary that. The Spurs and Leeds ones in comparison were rubbish.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2021

    Chameleon said:

    I'm watching Sunderland 'Till I Die. It provides massive insight into NE politics over the past few years. To quote a man in E1S1, 'If the club doesn't do good, we haven't got much going for us. It's just another nail in the coffin.'

    Good documentary that. The Spurs and Leeds ones in comparison were rubbish.
    You can tell that the makers were avid Sunderland fans - hence why S3 never got released. No corporate PR, just a raw look at the club.

    I watched the Spurs ones for Mou, but it was far too sanitised, and I'm too sane to watch a series where the Leeds twats do well.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Island Tories now speculating that they may have lost control of the county.

    The count is held up because a batch of postal votes was put in the box for the wrong ward. Council is suggesting all 39 wards may need to be recounted, which to me (I am not actually there) seems an overreaction.

    Just keep those island line railway extensions coming.

    I'd vote for anyone who delivered on Newport/Ventnor.

    Anyone.
    I was discussing the possible Ventnor extension just last week. We are keen to see it happen, but there are some technical issues as well as the minor issue of funding
    Send me a message. I'm a civil engineer and I do railways - major project/programme management.

    (PS. yes, we've been dicks to each other in the past but let's ignore that: this is more important)
    We’re expecting a feasibility study to go to Parliament from Ian Birch any day now. Once we see that - assuming it’s made public - we’ll have a better idea where things stand.
    (1) Need to relocate Ventnor industrial estate somewhere else
    (2) Wroxall - a few gardens, and maybe a couple of houses, need totalling (won't be popular)
    (3) Need some sort of connectivity shuttle down from Ventnor to town centre/bay

    I think the water pipes in the tunnel are something that can be accommodatedbut I haven't seen the detailed dimensions. I think the bridge over the road at Shanklin and reshuffling of access to Lower Hyde holiday park should be able to be done.

    £60-£80m project. Possibly a bit more with optimism bias.
    Which is a lot for a town of population fewer than 5,000

    There’s a local guy who thinks a water-powered funicular could be built up the hill. Doesn’t sound likely to me.

    Losing the Tory council to tap the Tory government for pork is probably a setback for an already unlikely project , if that is what has happened.
    Probably, but there's still the Tory held Westminster seat.

    The case for Isle of Wight railways run on peak summer loading, the social and congestion case, and their absolute charm.

    I'd argue Ventnor has certainly suffered since the 60s without it, and definitely would benefit from it.

    The marketing for IoW (and its railways) in general is utter shite. So many people in London and the home counties don't know you can wizz down there for an amazing weekend by the sea with great seafood in, like, less than 2 hours.
    For sure. And the town would certainly benefit considerably. The MP is championing the project, and as Tories go I have known far worse, despite the rumours that he only pretends to live on the island.

    We are due to get new ex Metropolitan Line rolling stock, to replace our current 1938 vintage carriages, originally targeted for March, then May, now some time in the summer. But I hear the carriages we have coming have very few spare parts, so another fiasco may be in the offing once they start to wear out.

    Not quite they are old D78 District line trains see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Underground_D78_Stock#Withdrawal sorry and yes I know this is incredibly sad but I did a search and immediately thought hang on they aren't the trains I commuted on from Amersham to Aldgate for years (yes I did always have a seat).

    Although that does feel very much like a Sunil post
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Rail_Class_484

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:484001_and_483009_at_Ryde_Traincare.jpg
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    Chameleon said:

    I'm watching Sunderland 'Till I Die. It provides massive insight into NE politics over the past few years. To quote a man in E1S1, 'If the club doesn't do good, we haven't got much going for us. It's just another nail in the coffin.'

    Like western PA and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    dixiedean said:

    What a weird place the entertainment industry is...just bants, constantly getting your cock out and wapping it on a ladies car windscreen...hilarious.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9554185/John-Barrowman-admits-exposed-Doctor-set.html

    Not a transferable skill for teaching.
    Or so I was angrily told.
    What a load of you-know-what. EXCELLENT way of getting & keeping your students' attention.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    Sense that, for some reason, may PBers are calling it an early night, tonight.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Let's not forget there's another Westminster by-election next Thursday in Airdrie and Shotts. Probably won't be very interesting, and turnout could be painfully low.

    Must say that "Airdrie and Shotts" sounds like a very "exclusive" store selling over-priced gift baskets & the like, with a glossy catalog and fancy website.
    You obviously haven't been there...
    So what. Betya I could set up a website called "Bedford–Stuyvesant" or "El Monte" aimed at selling pricey bric a brac to the UK carriage trade. AND make money at it.

    Would you like to get in on the ground floor?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Let's not forget there's another Westminster by-election next Thursday in Airdrie and Shotts. Probably won't be very interesting, and turnout could be painfully low.

    Must say that "Airdrie and Shotts" sounds like a very "exclusive" store selling over-priced gift baskets & the like, with a glossy catalog and fancy website.
    You obviously haven't been there...
    So what. Betya I could set up a website called "Bedford–Stuyvesant" or "El Monte" aimed at selling pricey bric a brac to the UK carriage trade. AND make money at it.

    Would you like to get in on the ground floor?
    Do Americans say that, even though it's the first floor?
  • TresTres Posts: 2,686
    My observation from the count was that the new London mayoral ballot design paper with names in two separate columns with 4 boxes across and only 2 votes has confounded a load of voters, thousands of people have voted for too many candidates.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    Federal health officials on Friday updated public guidance about how the coronavirus spreads, emphasizing that transmission occurs by inhaling very fine respiratory droplets and aerosolized particles, as well as through contact with sprayed droplets or touching contaminated hands to one’s mouth, nose or eyes.

    The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now states explicitly — in large, bold lettering — that airborne virus can be inhaled even when one is more than six feet away from an infected individual. The new language, posted online, is a change from the agency’s previous position that most infections were acquired through “close contact, not airborne transmission.”
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Got our moving date today - late June - Sorry Sunak!!!
  • TresTres Posts: 2,686
    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    Floater said:

    Just seen this

    Telscombe (East Sussex) council result:

    Lab: 45.0% (+20.2)
    Con: 42.7% (-11.3)
    LDem: 6.3% (-1.3)
    Grn: 6.0% (+2.3)

    Lab GAIN from Con

    The new Labour heartland. Bloody Sussex.
    From small acorns... :wink:
    Labour gain Sevenoaks?
    The Greens have narrowly won the Tonbridge county seat this evening, a quite remarkable result.

    https://democracy.kent.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=668&RPID=40885519

    Overall though the Tories have comfortably held Kent county council with 61 councillors to 6 LDs, 5 Labour and 4 Greens

    https://democracy.kent.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=32&RPID=42043451
    Local greens and lib dems in Tonbridge have been operating together quite cannily in not targetting the same seats. Lessons that could be learned elsewhere.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,549
    edited May 2021
    carnforth said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Let's not forget there's another Westminster by-election next Thursday in Airdrie and Shotts. Probably won't be very interesting, and turnout could be painfully low.

    Must say that "Airdrie and Shotts" sounds like a very "exclusive" store selling over-priced gift baskets & the like, with a glossy catalog and fancy website.
    You obviously haven't been there...
    So what. Betya I could set up a website called "Bedford–Stuyvesant" or "El Monte" aimed at selling pricey bric a brac to the UK carriage trade. AND make money at it.

    Would you like to get in on the ground floor?
    Do Americans say that, even though it's the first floor?
    Same thing to us. Though gotta love the "even though" bit, nice bit of condescension.

    OK, I believe you carnforth! Any offense untaken.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488

    carnforth said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Let's not forget there's another Westminster by-election next Thursday in Airdrie and Shotts. Probably won't be very interesting, and turnout could be painfully low.

    Must say that "Airdrie and Shotts" sounds like a very "exclusive" store selling over-priced gift baskets & the like, with a glossy catalog and fancy website.
    You obviously haven't been there...
    So what. Betya I could set up a website called "Bedford–Stuyvesant" or "El Monte" aimed at selling pricey bric a brac to the UK carriage trade. AND make money at it.

    Would you like to get in on the ground floor?
    Do Americans say that, even though it's the first floor?
    Same thing to us. Though gotta love the "even though" bit, nice bit of condescension.
    Unintended, I promise!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Floater said:
    I'm keeping an eye on this. I'm easily saving four figures a month living at home as a fresh grad. The tradeoff is that advancement will be much harder, which is no issue if I plan to leave as soon as I'm qualified.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,928
    Dura_Ace said:

    @Dura_Ace How lethal is this going to be then? Kiwi and guava halves stuff?

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1390715116052701188?s=20

    It doesn't really matter. The project is for the frottage of national vanity and corporate welfare for BAES.

    The numbers are ludicrous because the UK doesn't have enough heavy transport to move that many MBTs around so it'll be quietly optimised once the afterglow of the announcement.
    When you say 'optimised', do you really mean 'euthanized'?
  • Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    I'm watching Sunderland 'Till I Die. It provides massive insight into NE politics over the past few years. To quote a man in E1S1, 'If the club doesn't do good, we haven't got much going for us. It's just another nail in the coffin.'

    Good documentary that. The Spurs and Leeds ones in comparison were rubbish.
    You can tell that the makers were avid Sunderland fans - hence why S3 never got released. No corporate PR, just a raw look at the club.

    I watched the Spurs ones for Mou, but it was far too sanitised, and I'm too sane to watch a series where the Leeds twats do well.
    Leeds are going to be doing well for the next few years so get used to it.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    I'm watching Sunderland 'Till I Die. It provides massive insight into NE politics over the past few years. To quote a man in E1S1, 'If the club doesn't do good, we haven't got much going for us. It's just another nail in the coffin.'

    Good documentary that. The Spurs and Leeds ones in comparison were rubbish.
    You can tell that the makers were avid Sunderland fans - hence why S3 never got released. No corporate PR, just a raw look at the club.

    I watched the Spurs ones for Mou, but it was far too sanitised, and I'm too sane to watch a series where the Leeds twats do well.
    Leeds are going to be doing well for the next few years so get used to it.
    The solid base of c*nts the club is built on will drag them down sooner rather than later. If history tells us anything next year is the year they really have to worry about.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,171
    Tres said:

    My observation from the count was that the new London mayoral ballot design paper with names in two separate columns with 4 boxes across and only 2 votes has confounded a load of voters, thousands of people have voted for too many candidates.

    Why did they change it? In my local police election it was the same as usual.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,575
    Tres said:

    My observation from the count was that the new London mayoral ballot design paper with names in two separate columns with 4 boxes across and only 2 votes has confounded a load of voters, thousands of people have voted for too many candidates.

    Yes, it was an odd design. I speculated earlier that it might account for the anomolously low number of votes for Sadiq Khan compared with other Labour candidates.

    The colours of the three papers seemed oddly chosen as well: pink, yellow and orange seemed more like only two colours.

    We were asked not to fold the papers, in order to help the machines, but if the count was supposed to be electronic, why is it taking so long?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    Boris Johnson and Carrie Symonds rent out their £1.2million south London townhouse to raise cash after Downing Street refurbishment row

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9555867/Boris-Johnson-Carrie-Symonds-rent-1-2million-south-London-townhouse.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    MattW said:

    ydoethur said:

    Finally, some sanity on schools:

    https://www.tes.com/news/school-mask-rule-set-end-despite-teacher-opposition

    (No, teachers are not opposed. The article is misleading to that extent. Some unions are, especially those representing cleaning staff. Why, I don’t know, as the children are trawling their masks over desks, touching them and then chairs, dropping them on the floor...)

    According to the Guardian, Teachers Unions were amongst signatories to a letter to the Education Secretary demanding that masks remain compulsory. Three days ago.

    Is this different from teachers being opposed, and how do they express themselves outside Unions?

    Could you clarify? Thanks.

    Teaching unions, scientists, public health experts and parents are calling for masks to remain compulsory in classrooms in England to protect children and their families and reduce the risk of a third wave of Covid-19.

    In a letter to the education secretary, Gavin Williamson, the signatories claim current rates of vaccination are not yet sufficient to fully mitigate the impact of transmission among children on infection rates in the community. The government hopes to relax the requirement for pupils to wear face coverings in class at the next stage of the roadmap out of lockdown, due on 17 May.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/04/call-for-face-masks-to-remain-compulsory-in-england-schools-covid
    Hi Matt, I’m aware of this. I’m also aware, as you are not, that those signatories are facing votes of no confidence due to their stupid mask fetishes. They do not speak for members on this issue. They are like Plaid’s leadership obsessing about independence when the membership know it ain’t happening and is any case a daft idea.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    alex_ said:

    Floater said:

    I just saw in Telegraph that the Lib Dems are in negative territory re councillors in England this election.

    I thought they had been doing ok?

    Collapse in Cornwall.
    So angry fisherman vote not so significant then?
    Well, quite. The fishing industry’s economic significance is somewhere between Stilton cheese and the remnant coal mines, and why we continue to afford it such importance, I have no idea.
    Wait till it is your turn , you will not be such a smug smart arse then.
This discussion has been closed.