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The Welsh look like cementing their role as the Mitch McConnell of British politics – politicalbetti

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,585
    "Super hypocrites
    Spare us the sentimental tosh about working-class sport, tradition and community

    ARTILLERY ROW"

    https://thecritic.co.uk/super-hypocrites/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,206
    Andy_JS said:

    New Zealand has said it will no longer confront China over human rights as part of the 'Five Eyes' intelligence network, reversing an earlier commitment to its allies.

    Foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta said New Zealand was 'uncomfortable' with pressuring Beijing and wanted to pursue its own relationship with its largest trading partner.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9490407/New-Zealand-backs-Five-Eyes-alliance-wants-human-rights-raised-broader-group.html

    Ridiculous decision. Is political correctness responsible for this?
    Small country a lot nearer China than the US, and also one that was spooked by the isolationism of the Trump years.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,585
    Sandpit said:

    https://order-order.com/2021/04/20/watch-badenoch-calls-dawn-butlers-hate-stoking-race-comments-disgraceful/

    Ouch, as the young people would say about five years ago "you got served". Kemi is rock solid... Parents migrated to the UK from west africa as professionals, very successful wave of highly skilled migration. Never underestimate the contempt that the more conservative, educated and traditional values holding west africans have for those who's family originate from the Caribbean and for those with a list of excuses.

    Kemi is awesome on this stuff, she deserves a medal for the sh!t she’s getting.
    Might be worth putting a bet on her being the next Conservative leader.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,206

    Andy_JS said:

    New Zealand has said it will no longer confront China over human rights as part of the 'Five Eyes' intelligence network, reversing an earlier commitment to its allies.

    Foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta said New Zealand was 'uncomfortable' with pressuring Beijing and wanted to pursue its own relationship with its largest trading partner.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9490407/New-Zealand-backs-Five-Eyes-alliance-wants-human-rights-raised-broader-group.html

    Ridiculous decision. Is political correctness responsible for this?
    No. Money.

    "its largest trading partner."

    No different to Germany supporting Nordstream etc
    It is a little bit different. While the Germans are going to suck in more Russian gas, the rise of LNG and renewables mean that Russia has rather less leverage than it used to.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,428

    Assuming there's some medical reality behind this, it could be very big news indeed:

    COVID-19: Britons who test positive for coronavirus could be sent antiviral tablets to take at home

    The PM launches a taskforce to identify the most promising new antiviral medicines - with an aim of rolling them out this autumn.


    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-britons-who-test-positive-for-coronavirus-could-be-sent-antiviral-tablets-to-take-at-home-12281366

    Anti-virals effective against Covid would be a really major step forward.

    The PM also warned of a new coronavirus wave, saying: "There will be another wave of COVID at some stage this year."
    I think that's inevitable to some extent; after all, we've been in quite heavy lockdown for months, which has got the cases right down to low levels. When we relax the restrictions, there is bound to be an upsurge. Hopefully not too big an upsurge, and with small numbers of hospitalisations and deaths thanks to the vaccines.
    I doubt it's that inevitable, not domestically at least. Importing it back from abroad is another matter.

    Cases now are down to rates not seen since the beginning of September and still falling. At this rate by June they'll be in the hundreds per day, not the thousands or tens of thousands.

    If there's not much in the way of virus to spread, plus the vaccines will have taken the place of restrictions preventing it from spreading much, then a new wave sparking is implausible.
    Lots of people are still not vaccinated, and they cluster together (youngsters partying with youngsters, specific ethnic minorities etc). Once the virus gets into those sub-groups, it will inevitably spread within them, even if the vaccines prevent it spreading too much further. However, hopefully these will be mostly mild cases.
    Many of the young will have already had it too, such as university students. Vaccinating the vulnerable should prevent waves of cases leading to much In the way of hospitalisation and/or death.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,206

    First poll since the Greens and CDU/CSU picked their candidates for Chancellor:

    BUNDESTAGSWAHL | Sonntagsfrage Forsa/RTL/n-tv

    GRÜNE: 28% (+5)
    Union: 21% (-6)
    SPD: 13% (-2)
    FDP: 12% (+3)
    AfD: 11%
    LINKE: 7% (-1)
    Sonstige: 8% (+1)

    https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1384546624811278336

    Pretty dramatic if it's confirmed by other polls.

    I would like to mention that in my 2021 predictions, I said that the CDU without Merkel would struggle, and forecast that the Greens would win the German elections.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Are there any Latin scholars on PB?

    If so, make yourselves known, I can speak Latin, but I need your help before I potentially do some bad things to the Latin language.

    Fear not, you can always claim you're using a mediaeval ecclesiastical variant.
    True, I'm trying to work out what the Latin for The Union* or Unionism is.

    *The Union as in The United Kingdom.
    Hello, as it happens I just adsum iam forte.

    Classical Latin has a number of options: societas Britannica; socii et nomen Britannicum; respublica Britannica; or, fittingly enough, just imperium.

    Post-classical or late Latin has access to more abstracts like sociatio or foederatio. But I'm not sure what term was actually used in neo-Latin documents contemporary with the Act of Union.
  • Sandpit said:

    https://order-order.com/2021/04/20/watch-badenoch-calls-dawn-butlers-hate-stoking-race-comments-disgraceful/

    Ouch, as the young people would say about five years ago "you got served". Kemi is rock solid... Parents migrated to the UK from west africa as professionals, very successful wave of highly skilled migration. Never underestimate the contempt that the more conservative, educated and traditional values holding west africans have for those who's family originate from the Caribbean and for those with a list of excuses.

    Kemi is awesome on this stuff, she deserves a medal for the sh!t she’s getting.
    You look at people up and coming and think "do they have the chops for the big jobs", and she looks like she does. She might wonder why she bothers when her seniors just look to the ground and mumble quietly that they support her while shes knee deep in a heap of sh!t for doing what they ask of her.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Quite a small thing in the grand scheme of things, but the PL are yet to announce the TV picks for May. Basically no games have been moved for TV after this weekend. I suspect the delay is related to the super league stuff, though not sure why.
  • Floater said:

    I assume this would be grounds of appeal (leaving aside the comments from the congress woman the other day)

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9491069/Biden-called-George-Floyds-brother-Philonise-Derek-Chauvin-jury-sent-Minneapolis.html

    Biden says the evidence is 'overwhelming' in Derek Chauvin's trial and is 'praying for the right verdict'

    American sub judice rules aren't as strict over here.

    You should hear what the DA's say when they charge the accused for example.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,351
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,206
    In the US, United Airlines has just announced new summer vacation route just for vaccinated travellers: Greece (!), Iceland, and Croatia:

    https://simpleflying.com/united-european-expansion-summer-2021/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,351
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K population

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,351
    UK case summary

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  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,657
    edited April 2021
    tlg86 said:

    Quite a small thing in the grand scheme of things, but the PL are yet to announce the TV picks for May. Basically no games have been moved for TV after this weekend. I suspect the delay is related to the super league stuff, though not sure why.

    I think they are waiting for UEFA to kick the dirty dozen out of this season's competitions and next season's competitions.

    Plus if fans are allowed for the last two rounds (and them switching the match days around) I suspect Sky and BT (and possibly Amazon and the BBC) want the Liverpool et al home matches with 10,000 fans in, because I suspect the fans will be pretty loud in their displeasure.

    Edit - Plus they might also be fighting over who gets to broadcast West Ham's title clincing match this season.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,351
    UK hospitals

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,206

    Assuming there's some medical reality behind this, it could be very big news indeed:

    COVID-19: Britons who test positive for coronavirus could be sent antiviral tablets to take at home

    The PM launches a taskforce to identify the most promising new antiviral medicines - with an aim of rolling them out this autumn.


    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-britons-who-test-positive-for-coronavirus-could-be-sent-antiviral-tablets-to-take-at-home-12281366

    Anti-virals effective against Covid would be a really major step forward.

    The PM also warned of a new coronavirus wave, saying: "There will be another wave of COVID at some stage this year."
    I think that's inevitable to some extent; after all, we've been in quite heavy lockdown for months, which has got the cases right down to low levels. When we relax the restrictions, there is bound to be an upsurge. Hopefully not too big an upsurge, and with small numbers of hospitalisations and deaths thanks to the vaccines.
    I doubt it's that inevitable, not domestically at least. Importing it back from abroad is another matter.

    Cases now are down to rates not seen since the beginning of September and still falling. At this rate by June they'll be in the hundreds per day, not the thousands or tens of thousands.

    If there's not much in the way of virus to spread, plus the vaccines will have taken the place of restrictions preventing it from spreading much, then a new wave sparking is implausible.
    Lots of people are still not vaccinated, and they cluster together (youngsters partying with youngsters, specific ethnic minorities etc). Once the virus gets into those sub-groups, it will inevitably spread within them, even if the vaccines prevent it spreading too much further. However, hopefully these will be mostly mild cases.
    Those groups, though, are the least likely to get really sick.

    The virus running through 20 year olds will inevitably cause some hospitalisations and deaths, but not that many.
  • Are there any Latin scholars on PB?

    If so, make yourselves known, I can speak Latin, but I need your help before I potentially do some bad things to the Latin language.

    Fear not, you can always claim you're using a mediaeval ecclesiastical variant.
    True, I'm trying to work out what the Latin for The Union* or Unionism is.

    *The Union as in The United Kingdom.
    Hello, as it happens I just adsum iam forte.

    Classical Latin has a number of options: societas Britannica; socii et nomen Britannicum; respublica Britannica; or, fittingly enough, just imperium.

    Post-classical or late Latin has access to more abstracts like sociatio or foederatio. But I'm not sure what term was actually used in neo-Latin documents contemporary with the Act of Union.
    Cheers, I think I'll go for Societa Britannica.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,351
    UK Deaths

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,351
    UK R

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,585
    There will be another wave, but hopefully very few deaths.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827

    tlg86 said:

    Quite a small thing in the grand scheme of things, but the PL are yet to announce the TV picks for May. Basically no games have been moved for TV after this weekend. I suspect the delay is related to the super league stuff, though not sure why.

    I think they are waiting for UEFA to kick the dirty dozen out of this season's competitions.

    Plus if fans are allowed for the last two rounds (and them switching the match days around) I suspect Sky and BT (and possibly Amazon and the BBC) want the Liverpool et al home matches with 10,000 fans in, because I suspect the fans will be pretty loud in their displeasure.
    They have left it this late for each of the last few batches of confirmed kick off times.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,351
    Age related data

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200
    edited April 2021
    Big news my end. Had a haircut, the first for 8 months, and what a transformation. "Miracle" wouldn't be the wrong word. I went in looking like Emily Maitlis and come out as Bergerac. Is there anything apart from a radical crop that could achieve such a thing? I don't think there is.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Are there any Latin scholars on PB?

    If so, make yourselves known, I can speak Latin, but I need your help before I potentially do some bad things to the Latin language.

    Fear not, you can always claim you're using a mediaeval ecclesiastical variant.
    True, I'm trying to work out what the Latin for The Union* or Unionism is.

    *The Union as in The United Kingdom.
    Hello, as it happens I just adsum iam forte.

    Classical Latin has a number of options: societas Britannica; socii et nomen Britannicum; respublica Britannica; or, fittingly enough, just imperium.

    Post-classical or late Latin has access to more abstracts like sociatio or foederatio. But I'm not sure what term was actually used in neo-Latin documents contemporary with the Act of Union.
    Surely a great language like Latin has MANY ways of saying "act of union"!

    Same thing as "act of congress" - concubitum? actu coitus?

    (My learned scholarship is strait from Wikipedia!)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,351
    edited April 2021
    Age related data scaled to 100k per age group

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  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    First poll since the Greens and CDU/CSU picked their candidates for Chancellor:

    BUNDESTAGSWAHL | Sonntagsfrage Forsa/RTL/n-tv

    GRÜNE: 28% (+5)
    Union: 21% (-6)
    SPD: 13% (-2)
    FDP: 12% (+3)
    AfD: 11%
    LINKE: 7% (-1)
    Sonstige: 8% (+1)

    https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1384546624811278336

    Pretty dramatic if it's confirmed by other polls.

    What’s the German for Kaboom?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,657
    edited April 2021
    tlg86 said:

    First poll since the Greens and CDU/CSU picked their candidates for Chancellor:

    BUNDESTAGSWAHL | Sonntagsfrage Forsa/RTL/n-tv

    GRÜNE: 28% (+5)
    Union: 21% (-6)
    SPD: 13% (-2)
    FDP: 12% (+3)
    AfD: 11%
    LINKE: 7% (-1)
    Sonstige: 8% (+1)

    https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1384546624811278336

    Pretty dramatic if it's confirmed by other polls.

    What’s the German for Kaboom?
    This.


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,351
    UK Vaccinations

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,351
    CFR

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200

    Are there any Latin scholars on PB?

    If so, make yourselves known, I can speak Latin, but I need your help before I potentially do some bad things to the Latin language.

    Fear not, you can always claim you're using a mediaeval ecclesiastical variant.
    True, I'm trying to work out what the Latin for The Union* or Unionism is.

    *The Union as in The United Kingdom.
    Hello, as it happens I just adsum iam forte.

    Classical Latin has a number of options: societas Britannica; socii et nomen Britannicum; respublica Britannica; or, fittingly enough, just imperium.

    Post-classical or late Latin has access to more abstracts like sociatio or foederatio. But I'm not sure what term was actually used in neo-Latin documents contemporary with the Act of Union.
    Wearing your learning lightly, I see.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,585

    First poll since the Greens and CDU/CSU picked their candidates for Chancellor:

    BUNDESTAGSWAHL | Sonntagsfrage Forsa/RTL/n-tv

    GRÜNE: 28% (+5)
    Union: 21% (-6)
    SPD: 13% (-2)
    FDP: 12% (+3)
    AfD: 11%
    LINKE: 7% (-1)
    Sonstige: 8% (+1)

    https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1384546624811278336

    Pretty dramatic if it's confirmed by other polls.

    Astonishing figures. Perhaps the lowest ever figures for both the CDU/CSU and SPD.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    tlg86 said:

    Quite a small thing in the grand scheme of things, but the PL are yet to announce the TV picks for May. Basically no games have been moved for TV after this weekend. I suspect the delay is related to the super league stuff, though not sure why.

    Isn't it because they don't yet know which games will be crucial?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Floater said:

    I assume this would be grounds of appeal (leaving aside the comments from the congress woman the other day)

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9491069/Biden-called-George-Floyds-brother-Philonise-Derek-Chauvin-jury-sent-Minneapolis.html

    Biden says the evidence is 'overwhelming' in Derek Chauvin's trial and is 'praying for the right verdict'

    American sub judice rules aren't as strict over here.

    You should hear what the DA's say when they charge the accused for example.
    You are correct. On the other hand, Americans - especially lawyers - are often shocked by things that British judges will say on the bench during trials.

    Seems like putting on the big wig and sitting in the highchair, gives them leave to say any damn thing that pops into their heads.

    Including the kind of remarks that would result in VERY strong negative response by appeals courts, up to and including reversal of verdicts.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://order-order.com/2021/04/20/watch-badenoch-calls-dawn-butlers-hate-stoking-race-comments-disgraceful/

    Ouch, as the young people would say about five years ago "you got served". Kemi is rock solid... Parents migrated to the UK from west africa as professionals, very successful wave of highly skilled migration. Never underestimate the contempt that the more conservative, educated and traditional values holding west africans have for those who's family originate from the Caribbean and for those with a list of excuses.

    Kemi is awesome on this stuff, she deserves a medal for the sh!t she’s getting.
    Might be worth putting a bet on her being the next Conservative leader.
    Betfair has her at 36 to back for next leader, but 80 to lay, showing the lack of liquidity in that market. If she was 75 to back, I’d be in. More realistically, she’s a good shout for leader after next.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Are there any Latin scholars on PB?

    If so, make yourselves known, I can speak Latin, but I need your help before I potentially do some bad things to the Latin language.

    Fear not, you can always claim you're using a mediaeval ecclesiastical variant.
    True, I'm trying to work out what the Latin for The Union* or Unionism is.

    *The Union as in The United Kingdom.
    Hello, as it happens I just adsum iam forte.

    Classical Latin has a number of options: societas Britannica; socii et nomen Britannicum; respublica Britannica; or, fittingly enough, just imperium.

    Post-classical or late Latin has access to more abstracts like sociatio or foederatio. But I'm not sure what term was actually used in neo-Latin documents contemporary with the Act of Union.
    Surely a great language like Latin has MANY ways of saying "act of union"!

    Same thing as "act of congress" - concubitum? actu coitus?

    (My learned scholarship is strait from Wikipedia!)
    “Actu cotius” is a very different act of congress!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HvnieFO2sho

    Live stream of the Chelsea protest
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    I assume this would be grounds of appeal (leaving aside the comments from the congress woman the other day)

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9491069/Biden-called-George-Floyds-brother-Philonise-Derek-Chauvin-jury-sent-Minneapolis.html

    Biden says the evidence is 'overwhelming' in Derek Chauvin's trial and is 'praying for the right verdict'

    American sub judice rules aren't as strict over here.

    You should hear what the DA's say when they charge the accused for example.
    The judge was really unhappy with the congresswoman - so can't wait to hear what he says about the Prez
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited April 2021
    kinabalu said:

    Are there any Latin scholars on PB?

    If so, make yourselves known, I can speak Latin, but I need your help before I potentially do some bad things to the Latin language.

    Fear not, you can always claim you're using a mediaeval ecclesiastical variant.
    True, I'm trying to work out what the Latin for The Union* or Unionism is.

    *The Union as in The United Kingdom.
    Hello, as it happens I just adsum iam forte.

    Classical Latin has a number of options: societas Britannica; socii et nomen Britannicum; respublica Britannica; or, fittingly enough, just imperium.

    Post-classical or late Latin has access to more abstracts like sociatio or foederatio. But I'm not sure what term was actually used in neo-Latin documents contemporary with the Act of Union.
    Wearing your learning lightly, I see.
    I thought that was quite concise, actually. Have a care, I've so far restrained myself from unleashing my Latin elegiacs on the death of Prince Philip on the world, but that state of affairs may not persist forever...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,219
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://order-order.com/2021/04/20/watch-badenoch-calls-dawn-butlers-hate-stoking-race-comments-disgraceful/

    Ouch, as the young people would say about five years ago "you got served". Kemi is rock solid... Parents migrated to the UK from west africa as professionals, very successful wave of highly skilled migration. Never underestimate the contempt that the more conservative, educated and traditional values holding west africans have for those who's family originate from the Caribbean and for those with a list of excuses.

    Kemi is awesome on this stuff, she deserves a medal for the sh!t she’s getting.
    Might be worth putting a bet on her being the next Conservative leader.
    Betfair has her at 36 to back for next leader, but 80 to lay, showing the lack of liquidity in that market. If she was 75 to back, I’d be in. More realistically, she’s a good shout for leader after next.
    I'm on Badenoch at 131 for Next PM and 60 for next CP Leader with BF as I have reported here before. Very happy with these bets as I suspect Johnson isn't going anywhere in short or even medium term. Badenoch is hugely impressive in my view.
  • Floater said:

    I assume this would be grounds of appeal (leaving aside the comments from the congress woman the other day)

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9491069/Biden-called-George-Floyds-brother-Philonise-Derek-Chauvin-jury-sent-Minneapolis.html

    Biden says the evidence is 'overwhelming' in Derek Chauvin's trial and is 'praying for the right verdict'

    American sub judice rules aren't as strict over here.

    You should hear what the DA's say when they charge the accused for example.
    You are correct. On the other hand, Americans - especially lawyers - are often shocked by things that British judges will say on the bench during trials.

    Seems like putting on the big wig and sitting in the highchair, gives them leave to say any damn thing that pops into their heads.

    Including the kind of remarks that would result in VERY strong negative response by appeals courts, up to and including reversal of verdicts.
    Hizzoner Joseph Cantley's summing in the Thorpe trial was something else.

    I cannot tell the difference between the transcript of that and Peter Cook's performance in The Secret Policeman's Ball.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,219
    Best next leader bet IMO is Reeves for next Labour leader at 33/1 with W Hill. The cowards only let me place a bet of £5!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200

    https://order-order.com/2021/04/20/watch-badenoch-calls-dawn-butlers-hate-stoking-race-comments-disgraceful/

    Ouch, as the young people would say about five years ago "you got served". Kemi is rock solid... Parents migrated to the UK from west africa as professionals, very successful wave of highly skilled migration. Never underestimate the contempt that the more conservative, educated and traditional values holding west africans have for those who's family originate from the Caribbean and for those with a list of excuses.

    Why is it "rock solid" to have contempt for people from the Caribbean?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    dixiedean said:

    tlg86 said:

    Quite a small thing in the grand scheme of things, but the PL are yet to announce the TV picks for May. Basically no games have been moved for TV after this weekend. I suspect the delay is related to the super league stuff, though not sure why.

    Isn't it because they don't yet know which games will be crucial?
    Ordinarily* we’d have the fixtures for May 1-3 and May 7-10 by the end of last week. There is a bit of rearranging going on with the penultimate round to get fans at games (one home game each) - that’ll be fun, by the way - but I’d have expected at least May 1-3 and May 7-10 to be announced by today.

    * I mean during COVID. In normal times the Week 34-37 picks would have been announced at the end of March.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://order-order.com/2021/04/20/watch-badenoch-calls-dawn-butlers-hate-stoking-race-comments-disgraceful/

    Ouch, as the young people would say about five years ago "you got served". Kemi is rock solid... Parents migrated to the UK from west africa as professionals, very successful wave of highly skilled migration. Never underestimate the contempt that the more conservative, educated and traditional values holding west africans have for those who's family originate from the Caribbean and for those with a list of excuses.

    Kemi is awesome on this stuff, she deserves a medal for the sh!t she’s getting.
    Might be worth putting a bet on her being the next Conservative leader.
    Betfair has her at 36 to back for next leader, but 80 to lay, showing the lack of liquidity in that market. If she was 75 to back, I’d be in. More realistically, she’s a good shout for leader after next.
    I think that's an outstanding price from Betfair. About 1.5% differential in terms of probability. You'd never get a high-street bookmaker offering such a thing.

  • Let me just say the Airtags may change the world as profoundly as the iPod and the iPhone.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,206
    tlg86 said:

    First poll since the Greens and CDU/CSU picked their candidates for Chancellor:

    BUNDESTAGSWAHL | Sonntagsfrage Forsa/RTL/n-tv

    GRÜNE: 28% (+5)
    Union: 21% (-6)
    SPD: 13% (-2)
    FDP: 12% (+3)
    AfD: 11%
    LINKE: 7% (-1)
    Sonstige: 8% (+1)

    https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1384546624811278336

    Pretty dramatic if it's confirmed by other polls.

    What’s the German for Kaboom?
    That's a *really* good number for the FDP too. Last election they were struggling to get to 5%, now they're on the cusp of surpassing the SPD.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Omnium said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://order-order.com/2021/04/20/watch-badenoch-calls-dawn-butlers-hate-stoking-race-comments-disgraceful/

    Ouch, as the young people would say about five years ago "you got served". Kemi is rock solid... Parents migrated to the UK from west africa as professionals, very successful wave of highly skilled migration. Never underestimate the contempt that the more conservative, educated and traditional values holding west africans have for those who's family originate from the Caribbean and for those with a list of excuses.

    Kemi is awesome on this stuff, she deserves a medal for the sh!t she’s getting.
    Might be worth putting a bet on her being the next Conservative leader.
    Betfair has her at 36 to back for next leader, but 80 to lay, showing the lack of liquidity in that market. If she was 75 to back, I’d be in. More realistically, she’s a good shout for leader after next.
    I think that's an outstanding price from Betfair. About 1.5% differential in terms of probability. You'd never get a high-street bookmaker offering such a thing.

    Actually, that’s a fair point.
    (Considers a fiver of the 36).
  • kinabalu said:

    https://order-order.com/2021/04/20/watch-badenoch-calls-dawn-butlers-hate-stoking-race-comments-disgraceful/

    Ouch, as the young people would say about five years ago "you got served". Kemi is rock solid... Parents migrated to the UK from west africa as professionals, very successful wave of highly skilled migration. Never underestimate the contempt that the more conservative, educated and traditional values holding west africans have for those who's family originate from the Caribbean and for those with a list of excuses.

    Why is it "rock solid" to have contempt for people from the Caribbean?
    What was rock solid was her defence of her position and her firmly calling out the behaviour of Dawn Butler. "You excuse if you want to, this lady is not for excusing"
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Stocky said:

    Best next leader bet IMO is Reeves for next Labour leader at 33/1 with W Hill. The cowards only let me place a bet of £5!

    They must have inside intel on the imminent demise of the hopeless Starmer. The amount of voting on this super Thursday, it’s an orgy of democracy, the Tories going into it in fantastic shape. Starmer won’t survive for long after this.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Looks like Chelsea have folded.

    https://twitter.com/danroan/status/1384563875018952709

    Dan Roan
    @danroan
    BREAKING
    I understand Chelsea are now preparing documentation to request withdrawing from the ESL
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200
    Stocky said:

    Best next leader bet IMO is Reeves for next Labour leader at 33/1 with W Hill. The cowards only let me place a bet of £5!

    Not bad imo. She's certainly all over tv screens atm. My fav for who would replace Starmer if he falls before the GE (which I don't think he will) is Nandy.
  • I am so going to spoil you tomorrow.

    Morning thread - Scottish independence

    Afternoon thread - Voting reform.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,219
    I see Bailey is now ahead of Rose in the mayor odds with BF. 90/1 versus 100/1.

    Cheers to whoever tipped a lay of Rose at 7 or thereabouts. @Quincel I think.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,219
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    Best next leader bet IMO is Reeves for next Labour leader at 33/1 with W Hill. The cowards only let me place a bet of £5!

    Not bad imo. She's certainly all over tv screens atm. My fav for who would replace Starmer if he falls before the GE (which I don't think he will) is Nandy.
    Yes I agree. Too short odds though. How come Burnham is the favourite? He's not even a MP - would this even be possible?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited April 2021

    I am so going to spoil you tomorrow.

    Morning thread - Scottish independence

    Afternoon thread - Voting reform.

    Gosh, PB has a programme now. Maybe you could consider presenting us with a list of potential thread topics so that we can all rank our preferences in order? :wink:
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Chelsea fans preventing their team bus from arriving.
    Petr Cech trying to sort it.
    Goodness only knows what would have happened with a full stadium.
    Match abandoned no doubt.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,585
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://order-order.com/2021/04/20/watch-badenoch-calls-dawn-butlers-hate-stoking-race-comments-disgraceful/

    Ouch, as the young people would say about five years ago "you got served". Kemi is rock solid... Parents migrated to the UK from west africa as professionals, very successful wave of highly skilled migration. Never underestimate the contempt that the more conservative, educated and traditional values holding west africans have for those who's family originate from the Caribbean and for those with a list of excuses.

    Kemi is awesome on this stuff, she deserves a medal for the sh!t she’s getting.
    Might be worth putting a bet on her being the next Conservative leader.
    Betfair has her at 36 to back for next leader, but 80 to lay, showing the lack of liquidity in that market. If she was 75 to back, I’d be in. More realistically, she’s a good shout for leader after next.
    Depends how long Johnson hangs around for. I can't see KB taking over within the next 3 or 4 years.
  • Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    Best next leader bet IMO is Reeves for next Labour leader at 33/1 with W Hill. The cowards only let me place a bet of £5!

    Not bad imo. She's certainly all over tv screens atm. My fav for who would replace Starmer if he falls before the GE (which I don't think he will) is Nandy.
    Yes I agree. Too short odds though. How come Burnham is the favourite? He's not even a MP - would this even be possible?
    Would he even want it? Leader of the opposition in a state of conservative dominance or Mayor of Manchester that he can make his own in his own way. No brainer. Being a metro Mayor will actually be a job that gives joy.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,219
    gealbhan said:

    Stocky said:

    Best next leader bet IMO is Reeves for next Labour leader at 33/1 with W Hill. The cowards only let me place a bet of £5!

    They must have inside intel on the imminent demise of the hopeless Starmer. The amount of voting on this super Thursday, it’s an orgy of democracy, the Tories going into it in fantastic shape. Starmer won’t survive for long after this.
    I'm not so sure. The Labour Party don't have a history of ditching leaders and I think the only way Starmer goes is by his own choice which I can't see happening until after he loses the next election.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200
    edited April 2021

    kinabalu said:

    https://order-order.com/2021/04/20/watch-badenoch-calls-dawn-butlers-hate-stoking-race-comments-disgraceful/

    Ouch, as the young people would say about five years ago "you got served". Kemi is rock solid... Parents migrated to the UK from west africa as professionals, very successful wave of highly skilled migration. Never underestimate the contempt that the more conservative, educated and traditional values holding west africans have for those who's family originate from the Caribbean and for those with a list of excuses.

    Why is it "rock solid" to have contempt for people from the Caribbean?
    What was rock solid was her defence of her position and her firmly calling out the behaviour of Dawn Butler. "You excuse if you want to, this lady is not for excusing"
    Ah ok. Just your post seemed to be celebrating the contempt of one ethnic minority for another. If you weren't doing this, apologies for misinterpreting. But you were, weren't you?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,219

    I am so going to spoil you tomorrow.

    Morning thread - Scottish independence

    Afternoon thread - Voting reform.

    Stop it - I'm firming up!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Chelsea get to be the saints.

    Could have been Liverpool last night.
  • Looks like Chelsea have folded.

    https://twitter.com/danroan/status/1384563875018952709

    Dan Roan
    @danroan
    BREAKING
    I understand Chelsea are now preparing documentation to request withdrawing from the ESL

    This is going to cost someone a lot of money..
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    Looks like Chelsea have folded.

    https://twitter.com/danroan/status/1384563875018952709

    Dan Roan
    @danroan
    BREAKING
    I understand Chelsea are now preparing documentation to request withdrawing from the ESL

    Looks like the executives didn't fancy meeting the "legacy fans" in the flesh.
    And who can blame them?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,889
    rcs1000 said:

    First poll since the Greens and CDU/CSU picked their candidates for Chancellor:

    BUNDESTAGSWAHL | Sonntagsfrage Forsa/RTL/n-tv

    GRÜNE: 28% (+5)
    Union: 21% (-6)
    SPD: 13% (-2)
    FDP: 12% (+3)
    AfD: 11%
    LINKE: 7% (-1)
    Sonstige: 8% (+1)

    https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1384546624811278336

    Pretty dramatic if it's confirmed by other polls.

    I would like to mention that in my 2021 predictions, I said that the CDU without Merkel would struggle, and forecast that the Greens would win the German elections.
    It seems Soder has withdrawn and Laschet will be the Union Spitzenkandidat. I can only imagine Soder was too conservative for the more liberal CDU majority in the Union.

    This is unbelievable - last week one of the German pollsters ran two polls - one with Laschet as the CDU/CSU candidate for Chancellor and the other with Soder. With Soder, the Union had 38% of the vote and a commanding lead over the opposition parties - with Laschet, the Union vote slumped and the Greens and SPD advanced.

    It's analogous to the Conservatives, after the June 2019 ComRes polling, choosing Hunt or Javid rather than Johnson.

    It may be, as in Austria, the Greens and the centre-right will form a coalition but whereas in Austria the OVP are the main party, in Germany it will be the Greens.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://order-order.com/2021/04/20/watch-badenoch-calls-dawn-butlers-hate-stoking-race-comments-disgraceful/

    Ouch, as the young people would say about five years ago "you got served". Kemi is rock solid... Parents migrated to the UK from west africa as professionals, very successful wave of highly skilled migration. Never underestimate the contempt that the more conservative, educated and traditional values holding west africans have for those who's family originate from the Caribbean and for those with a list of excuses.

    Kemi is awesome on this stuff, she deserves a medal for the sh!t she’s getting.
    Might be worth putting a bet on her being the next Conservative leader.
    I've said for a while it shows the Tory Party has fully repudiated Enoch Powell's Rivers of Blood Speech.

    The party now has a black MP with the surname BAD ENOCH.
    She’s brilliant isn’t she? I had her down as one to watch from the moment she was elected. Just cuts through the bullshit
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I am so going to spoil you tomorrow.

    Morning thread - Scottish independence

    Afternoon thread - Voting reform.

    Gosh, PB has a programme now. Maybe you could consider presenting us with a list of potential thread topics so that we can all rank our preferences in order? :wink:
    Can we transfer our votes?
  • tlg86 said:

    Chelsea get to be the saints.

    Could have been Liverpool last night.

    I expect the rest to fold in the next few days

    Fingers crossed
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://order-order.com/2021/04/20/watch-badenoch-calls-dawn-butlers-hate-stoking-race-comments-disgraceful/

    Ouch, as the young people would say about five years ago "you got served". Kemi is rock solid... Parents migrated to the UK from west africa as professionals, very successful wave of highly skilled migration. Never underestimate the contempt that the more conservative, educated and traditional values holding west africans have for those who's family originate from the Caribbean and for those with a list of excuses.

    Kemi is awesome on this stuff, she deserves a medal for the sh!t she’s getting.
    Might be worth putting a bet on her being the next Conservative leader.
    Betfair has her at 36 to back for next leader, but 80 to lay, showing the lack of liquidity in that market. If she was 75 to back, I’d be in. More realistically, she’s a good shout for leader after next.
    Depends how long Johnson hangs around for. I can't see KB taking over within the next 3 or 4 years.
    Indeed. The incumbent was put in place for a specific reason, a task which is mostly now accomplished. He’s not necessarily the right person to lead a government through a painful recovery. I can see Johnson becoming unstuck in the next year or two, in which case the next leader is probably between Sunak and Gove, with most of the outsiders very much outsiders.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080

    Let me just say the Airtags may change the world as profoundly as the iPod and the iPhone.

    How are they any different to Tile ?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Haha Liverpool. Imagine being shown up by Chelsea.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,761

    tlg86 said:

    Chelsea get to be the saints.

    Could have been Liverpool last night.

    I expect the rest to fold in the next few days

    Fingers crossed
    It's over.

    Maybe the whole thing was some weird wargame/negotiate positioning.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    dixiedean said:

    Looks like Chelsea have folded.

    https://twitter.com/danroan/status/1384563875018952709

    Dan Roan
    @danroan
    BREAKING
    I understand Chelsea are now preparing documentation to request withdrawing from the ESL

    Looks like the executives didn't fancy meeting the "legacy fans" in the flesh.
    And who can blame them?
    If this league goes ahead, “legacy fans” is going to be Susie Dent’s phrase of the year!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,585
    "European Super League: Chelsea preparing documents to formally withdraw from competition, Sky News understands"

    https://news.sky.com/story/european-super-league-chelsea-preparing-documents-to-formally-withdraw-from-competition-sky-news-understands-12281597
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200

    kinabalu said:

    Are there any Latin scholars on PB?

    If so, make yourselves known, I can speak Latin, but I need your help before I potentially do some bad things to the Latin language.

    Fear not, you can always claim you're using a mediaeval ecclesiastical variant.
    True, I'm trying to work out what the Latin for The Union* or Unionism is.

    *The Union as in The United Kingdom.
    Hello, as it happens I just adsum iam forte.

    Classical Latin has a number of options: societas Britannica; socii et nomen Britannicum; respublica Britannica; or, fittingly enough, just imperium.

    Post-classical or late Latin has access to more abstracts like sociatio or foederatio. But I'm not sure what term was actually used in neo-Latin documents contemporary with the Act of Union.
    Wearing your learning lightly, I see.
    I thought that was quite concise, actually. Have a care, I've so far restrained myself from unleashing my Latin elegiacs on the death of Prince Philip on the world, but that state of affairs may not persist forever...
    I'm always up for some of your gilded arcanery, you know that.
  • tlg86 said:

    Chelsea get to be the saints.

    Could have been Liverpool last night.

    I expect the rest to fold in the next few days

    Fingers crossed
    It's over.

    Maybe the whole thing was some weird wargame/negotiate positioning.

    Maybe but I doubt they expected humiliation

  • Let me just say the Airtags may change the world as profoundly as the iPod and the iPhone.

    How are they any different to Tile ?
    Because they are made and designed by Apple.

    Apple = Da Best.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    Does this we have to put up with the bullshit new champions league where coming 24th in the (not really) a league stage, still qualifies you for a playoff place?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Yes Chelsea! You might be bastards but you’re not as big bastards as the rest
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930

    Let me just say the Airtags may change the world as profoundly as the iPod and the iPhone.

    You'll only need it when the item is lost, and you can bet that'll be once that battery has gone.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    tlg86 said:

    Chelsea get to be the saints.

    Could have been Liverpool last night.

    I expect the rest to fold in the next few days

    Fingers crossed
    It's over.

    Maybe the whole thing was some weird wargame/negotiate positioning.

    Certainly weird. Chelsea tarnished. But only mild ordure.
    Frightening stench from the rest.
  • I am so going to spoil you tomorrow.

    Morning thread - Scottish independence

    Afternoon thread - Voting reform.

    Gosh, PB has a programme now. Maybe you could consider presenting us with a list of potential thread topics so that we can all rank our preferences in order? :wink:
    Really busy tomorrow with work, so I have to plan ahead.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited April 2021

    Let me just say the Airtags may change the world as profoundly as the iPod and the iPhone.

    How are they any different to Tile ?
    Because they are made and designed by Apple.

    Apple = Da Best.
    You mean like when they made that Sonos killer.....The brilliance of thr iPhone was it was clearly much better, a step.change, same with the iPad....the tags, Tile and about 4-5 other companies been making them for years, I don't see how they are better...and doesn't it use the same tech as the COVID tracking app that is kinda of crap because bluetooth has severe limitations.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,200
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    Best next leader bet IMO is Reeves for next Labour leader at 33/1 with W Hill. The cowards only let me place a bet of £5!

    Not bad imo. She's certainly all over tv screens atm. My fav for who would replace Starmer if he falls before the GE (which I don't think he will) is Nandy.
    Yes I agree. Too short odds though. How come Burnham is the favourite? He's not even a MP - would this even be possible?
    I don't think he should be fav. I think Nandy should be. But there are 3 scenarios to consider. He's kicked out before the GE. He fights the GE and loses and resigns. He fights the GE and becomes PM in a Lab minority govt, thus not replaced for many years.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,392
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://order-order.com/2021/04/20/watch-badenoch-calls-dawn-butlers-hate-stoking-race-comments-disgraceful/

    Ouch, as the young people would say about five years ago "you got served". Kemi is rock solid... Parents migrated to the UK from west africa as professionals, very successful wave of highly skilled migration. Never underestimate the contempt that the more conservative, educated and traditional values holding west africans have for those who's family originate from the Caribbean and for those with a list of excuses.

    Kemi is awesome on this stuff, she deserves a medal for the sh!t she’s getting.
    Might be worth putting a bet on her being the next Conservative leader.
    Betfair has her at 36 to back for next leader, but 80 to lay, showing the lack of liquidity in that market. If she was 75 to back, I’d be in. More realistically, she’s a good shout for leader after next.
    Depends how long Johnson hangs around for. I can't see KB taking over within the next 3 or 4 years.
    Indeed. The incumbent was put in place for a specific reason, a task which is mostly now accomplished. He’s not necessarily the right person to lead a government through a painful recovery. I can see Johnson becoming unstuck in the next year or two, in which case the next leader is probably between Sunak and Gove, with most of the outsiders very much outsiders.
    Doubt it's going to be Gove - given the choice who would you want fronting a campaign...
  • Does this we have to put up with the bullshit new champions league where coming 24th in the (not really) a league stage, still qualifies you for a playoff place?

    Yes.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    That noise you can hear is the LFC Board scratching its collective heads to try and work out a fan narrative for why this is all someone else’s fault.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080

    Does this we have to put up with the bullshit new champions league where coming 24th in the (not really) a league stage, still qualifies you for a playoff place?

    Yes.
    Well i won't be watching that horseshit.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,939

    I am so going to spoil you tomorrow.

    Morning thread - Scottish independence

    Afternoon thread - Voting reform.

    What about a thread explaining why Scotland can’t be independent because they would be poorer but football clubs can’t join the ESL because they would be richer?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    That noise you can hear is the LFC Board scratching its collective heads to try and work out a fan narrative for why this is all someone else’s fault.

    Perez left some t-shirts in their board room and they were so upset and humiliated that they felt bullied into signing up.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited April 2021

    Does this we have to put up with the bullshit new champions league where coming 24th in the (not really) a league stage, still qualifies you for a playoff place?

    Getting back to being mad at UEFA will be a welcome relief. Nostalgic even.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    New Zealand has said it will no longer confront China over human rights as part of the 'Five Eyes' intelligence network, reversing an earlier commitment to its allies.

    Foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta said New Zealand was 'uncomfortable' with pressuring Beijing and wanted to pursue its own relationship with its largest trading partner.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9490407/New-Zealand-backs-Five-Eyes-alliance-wants-human-rights-raised-broader-group.html

    Ridiculous decision. Is political correctness responsible for this?
    Small country a lot nearer China than the US, and also one that was spooked by the isolationism of the Trump years.
    NZ has a thriving Chinese Community , and economic trade, and tourism with China are big.

    It is China's economic power that makes it hard to isolate. The USSR was militarily powerful but economically weak.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Sandpit said:

    Floater said:

    We need to talk about football more :-)

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1384535304921620480

    Madrid court bans UEFA, FIFA from taking steps against European Super League:

    The ESL guys seem well organised, and as much as I don’t like what they’re doing, it’s probably going to happen. It’s way more than a negotiating tool with UEFA, and the clubs involved are now all in with the new league.
    Once again, it’s not going to happen.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,392

    Let me just say the Airtags may change the world as profoundly as the iPod and the iPhone.

    How are they any different to Tile ?
    Because they are made and designed by Apple.

    Apple = Da Best.
    You mean like when they made that Sonos killer.....The brilliance of thr iPhone was it was clearly much better, a step.change, same with the iPad....the tags, Tile and about 4-5 other companies been making them for years, I don't see how they are better...and doesn't it use the same tech as the COVID tracking app that is kinda of crap because bluetooth has severe limitations.
    I still have Slimdevices Squeezeboxes that I continually nurse to keep going.

    The fact they have a screen showing what is being played and a simple remote means they trump Sonos and I can't be bothered to change now...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited April 2021
    Boris told him to resign then sacked him...hmmm...that doesn't seem like a good move. A few good weeks of PR for the Boris and then does this.
This discussion has been closed.