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The Welsh look like cementing their role as the Mitch McConnell of British politics – politicalbetti

SystemSystem Posts: 12,167
edited April 2021 in General
The Welsh look like cementing their role as the Mitch McConnell of British politics – politicalbetting.com

Welsh parliament constituency voting intention:LAB: 40% (+5)CON: 30% (+9)PC: 19% (-2)LDEM: 4% (-4)via @OpiniumResearchChgs. w/ 2016 result

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 28,390
    Interesting to note how the Brexit party vote splits now Farage has gone.

    Probably very important if you are looking at Hartlepool or other seats post the 2019 election.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited April 2021
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Amazon Prime rules out any bid for ESL, because it is horrid.

    https://twitter.com/primevideosport/status/1384507214530973696?s=20


    And:


    Footy Accumulators
    @FootyAccums
    Liverpool have grown "increasingly doubtful" in the last 24 hours about the Super League. The 'Big 6' clubs didn't expect the anger from the fans to be so extreme.

    [Bild]



    This is hilarious

    As I said down thread, they don't need a Sky or Amazon...they can Netflix it via Bamtech.
    They also need to:-

    1) get their app on TV and other devices
    2) and sell it.

    They don't just need Big Mouse's tech they also need it's marketing and sales power at which point Big Mouse is going to say happy to do so - thanks for launching ESPN worldwide.
    Big Mouse seems happy to cream off their % from other sports. Wouldn't surprise me if there were happy to do the same here, same as AWS is happy to cream of a % of so many companies via cloud computing.

    They could go for the UFC model, UFC still control the bulk of the coverage, Big Mouse handles all the streaming tech, and ESPN broadcast some events plus you need a subscription via ESPN+ to be able to access UFC channel and PPV, and generally ramps up the sport via analysis shows.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    Oi, you just tipped value in Mark Drakeford losing his seat the other day.

    Your consistency would make John Bercow blush.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Not exactly a surge for Welsh indy, there
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,689
    Gary Linekar: “ To be clear: if it actually happens, I will never work on this European Super League”
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited April 2021

    Gary Linekar: “ To be clear: if it actually happens, I will never work on this European Super League”

    No great loss....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,467
    https://twitter.com/ben_rumsby/status/1384512492861202439

    Ben Rumsby
    @ben_rumsby
    MPs announce evidence session into The Super League. Witnesses to be summoned to appear before parliament.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080

    Is Mark Drakeford...

    a) God's representative on Earth?

    b) Adonis' better-looking brother?

    c) The brighter twin of Professor Stephen Hawking?

    d) All of the above

    They should hire him to run the ESL....
  • ridaligoridaligo Posts: 174

    Gary Linekar: “ To be clear: if it actually happens, I will never work on this European Super League”

    I think that falls into the category of "is that a threat or a promise?" ...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    New Zealand has said it will no longer confront China over human rights as part of the 'Five Eyes' intelligence network, reversing an earlier commitment to its allies.

    Foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta said New Zealand was 'uncomfortable' with pressuring Beijing and wanted to pursue its own relationship with its largest trading partner.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9490407/New-Zealand-backs-Five-Eyes-alliance-wants-human-rights-raised-broader-group.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    Indian Prime Minister Modi will address the nation on coronavirus at 8:45 p.m. (11:15 a.m. ET)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,595

    Indian Prime Minister Modi will address the nation on coronavirus at 8:45 p.m. (11:15 a.m. ET)

    That’ll be the national lockdown he’s been desparately trying to avoid.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,821
    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    A shame. So the bullies win, after all.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited April 2021
    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't all play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,746
    edited April 2021

    Is Mark Drakeford...

    a) God's representative on Earth?

    b) Adonis' better-looking brother?

    c) The brighter twin of Professor Stephen Hawking?

    d) All of the above

    Hmm.

    On b) are we talking Baron Adonis?

    On c) I used to work with a scientist called Stephen Hawking (not that one!). He was basically ungoogleable, pretty bright though.

    Edit: the Stephen I knew hadn't made professor yet, either. May have by now. Google can't tell me.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,390
    edited April 2021

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    Yearly qualification or relegation is fine - the important thing is that clubs don't stay there permanently because they joined at the beginning.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,219
    Anyone been to Jersey? What's it like - best parts to stay - what's the capital like - should we base there - etc?

    Any help much appreciated.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    A shame. So the bullies win, after all.
    Not sure they "win"

    They won't get franchise status, and the owners of the Stupid Six have utterly trashed their reputations

    For some - like FSG at Liverpool - there might be no coming back
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited April 2021
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    Yearly qualification or relegation is fine - the important thing is that you don't staythere permanently because you joined at the beginning.
    I am surprised the ESL didn't think of that and have a fudge which was basically we are having founding clubs in a league, and then we will form a second division, and establish ability for progression....but fudge the funding such that the founders are shareholders in the league and thus get the bigger payouts every year (which would cushion them if they did go down to tier 2 of the ESL).

    Then they could say, look there is still the dream...we just happen to put our thumb on the scale such that most other clubs won't ever be able to compete.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,595
    Selebian said:

    Is Mark Drakeford...

    a) God's representative on Earth?

    b) Adonis' better-looking brother?

    c) The brighter twin of Professor Stephen Hawking?

    d) All of the above

    Hmm.

    On b) are we talking Baron Adonis?

    On c) I used to work with a scientist called Stephen Hawking (not that one!). He was basically ungoogleable, pretty bright though.
    Lucky guy. Some of us have to make quite the effort to be ungoogleable.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,390

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    Yearly qualification or relegation is fine - the important thing is that you don't staythere permanently because you joined at the beginning.
    I am surprised the ESL didn't think of that and have a fudge which was basically we are having founding clubs in a league, and then we will form a second division, and establish ability for progression....but fudge the funding such that the founders are shareholders in the league and thus get the bigger payouts every year (which would cushion them if they did go down to tier 2 of the ESL).
    I think the issue is that Americans were involved and they didn't understand how sport works outside the USA..
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Got to feel sorry for Manchester United and their plunging share price


    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/MANU/


    LOL
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,192

    Oi, you just tipped value in Mark Drakeford losing his seat the other day.

    Your consistency would make John Bercow blush.

    @TheScreamingEagles is a lawyer, remember.
    We had a brief discussion on the previous thread about the presentation of different, not necessarily consistent cases.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't all play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    A compromise.

    Always the right option. There are some good ideas in the Super League proposal but being drowned out by the Closed Shop.

    The Closed Shop needs to die a death, but the rest is up for negotiations.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,202

    Gary Linekar: “ To be clear: if it actually happens, I will never work on this European Super League”

    Isn't he a bit old these days?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Stocky said:

    Anyone been to Jersey? What's it like - best parts to stay - what's the capital like - should we base there - etc?

    Any help much appreciated.

    The island of Jersey, or New Jersey?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't all play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    I have been saying since Sunday that it was a bargaining chip and that it would never actually happen.

    WILL @Leon NOW CONCEDE I WAS RIGHT? (again)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,192
    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    The Covid Recovery Fund....
  • eekeek Posts: 28,390
    Stocky said:

    Anyone been to Jersey? What's it like - best parts to stay - what's the capital like - should we base there - etc?

    Any help much appreciated.

    Jersey? It's 5 miles long and 9 miles wide - you could stay anywhere and get to where you want in 20 minutes max, or 2 hours if walking.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited April 2021
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    Yearly qualification or relegation is fine - the important thing is that you don't staythere permanently because you joined at the beginning.
    I am surprised the ESL didn't think of that and have a fudge which was basically we are having founding clubs in a league, and then we will form a second division, and establish ability for progression....but fudge the funding such that the founders are shareholders in the league and thus get the bigger payouts every year (which would cushion them if they did go down to tier 2 of the ESL).
    I think the issue is that Americans were involved and they didn't understand how sport works outside the USA..
    But that is kinda of how the likes of the NFL work...the shareholder get their guaranteed share of the payouts and if you want to join you have to pay a massive amount to become one.

    All they had to do is fudged so theoretically possible, but practically impossible for the founders to drop out the thing entirely, the owners will always be raking it in. In reality, the EPL is already fudged like that, other than Man City, none of the other big clubs have come close to being relegation and Man City was before the current ownership.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    Yearly qualification or relegation is fine - the important thing is that you don't staythere permanently because you joined at the beginning.
    I am surprised the ESL didn't think of that and have a fudge which was basically we are having founding clubs in a league, and then we will form a second division, and establish ability for progression....but fudge the funding such that the founders are shareholders in the league and thus get the bigger payouts every year (which would cushion them if they did go down to tier 2 of the ESL).

    Then they could say, look there is still the dream...we just happen to put our thumb on the scale such that most other clubs won't ever be able to compete.
    Greed
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Stocky said:

    Anyone been to Jersey? What's it like - best parts to stay - what's the capital like - should we base there - etc?

    Any help much appreciated.

    The island is one continual stream of slow moving vehicles.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,467
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    Yearly qualification or relegation is fine - the important thing is that clubs don't stay there permanently because they joined at the beginning.
    As long as the "big 6" are banned for the first 5 years or something.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    FPT on Richard Dawkins: his problem is his consistency - he's an evidence-based individual with a nose for bullshit and calls it out (not always diplomatically) wherever he finds it. He's correctly detected that Wokeism is simply yet another religion - albeit a secular one.

    Personally? I'm rooting for him. I'm tired of being told I have to believe in things that simply aren't true, and I think many other people are as well.

    The difference between God and Richard Dawkins is that God doesn't think he is Richard Dawkins.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,390
    edited April 2021

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    Yearly qualification or relegation is fine - the important thing is that you don't staythere permanently because you joined at the beginning.
    I am surprised the ESL didn't think of that and have a fudge which was basically we are having founding clubs in a league, and then we will form a second division, and establish ability for progression....but fudge the funding such that the founders are shareholders in the league and thus get the bigger payouts every year (which would cushion them if they did go down to tier 2 of the ESL).
    I think the issue is that Americans were involved and they didn't understand how sport works outside the USA..
    But that is kinda of how the likes of the NFL work...the shareholder get their guaranteed payouts. All they had to do is fudged so theoretically possible, but practically impossible for the founders to drop out the thing entirely, the owners will always be raking it in.
    That's my point - in the NFL any team in any division could in theory win this years superbowl.

    If you have relegation the teams in division 2 can't do that..

    Another issue was the 5 guest teams, given you have 15 founders a system based on 32 teams (17 invites rather than 5) would have made way more sense and been way more interesting all round.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,821
    Stocky said:

    Anyone been to Jersey? What's it like - best parts to stay - what's the capital like - should we base there - etc?

    Any help much appreciated.

    Not much help, but I went there camping three times in the 80s, when I was 7, 8 and 10. My most golden, if rather hazy now, childhood memories.
    I do remember my mum crying gently on the ferry as we left St. Helier at the end of the holiday because she'd had such a good time and didn't want to go home.
    I hope it's even half as good as I remember.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    Yearly qualification or relegation is fine - the important thing is that you don't staythere permanently because you joined at the beginning.
    I am surprised the ESL didn't think of that and have a fudge which was basically we are having founding clubs in a league, and then we will form a second division, and establish ability for progression....but fudge the funding such that the founders are shareholders in the league and thus get the bigger payouts every year (which would cushion them if they did go down to tier 2 of the ESL).

    Then they could say, look there is still the dream...we just happen to put our thumb on the scale such that most other clubs won't ever be able to compete.
    Greed
    But in a way my suggestion could make them even more money. Two divisions, even more dosho, and the founding fathers are exclusive shareholders in the enterprise of. They would be only taking a tiny risk of dropping down two tiers (its like thinking Man Utd would ever get relegated from the EPL and then the Championship, ain't going to happen), with huge potential upside.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,821
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    A shame. So the bullies win, after all.
    Not sure they "win"

    They won't get franchise status, and the owners of the Stupid Six have utterly trashed their reputations

    For some - like FSG at Liverpool - there might be no coming back
    Well, hopefully not.
    It initially looks like by threatening to set up their own competition, they've managed to cut themselves a slightly larger slice of the pie. But maybe as you say the winning and losing is a lot more complex than that.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Alistair said:
    Do the swing Senators back it?

    And what about Puerto Rico? That's even more deserving.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,467
    Alistair said:
    I assume this means they think they have the votes?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,542
    LOL The Telegraph refers to Lineker as "The Queen Mother of Football"
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited April 2021
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    A shame. So the bullies win, after all.
    Not sure they "win"

    They won't get franchise status, and the owners of the Stupid Six have utterly trashed their reputations

    For some - like FSG at Liverpool - there might be no coming back
    If there's a compromise then FSG can say they have listened to the fan response and will be proceeding with the wishes of the fans, then I don't think that will trash their reputations.

    When clubs ignore the wishes of the fans and proceed regardless against their wishes, that's what trashes reputations.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    There are reasons to be very wary of this poll.

    The best ever result in Wales by Labour was in 2003 under Rhodri Morgan (40/37 % for constituency/list) and in 2011 under Carwyn Jones (42/37 %).

    This poll is predicting that Drakeford (40/38 %) will ACTUALLY do better than Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones on the list. It looks unbelievable. The Labour vote is resilient in Wales, but there is no way Drakeford is as popular as Rhodri Morgan or Carwyn Jones at their peak.

    It would be -- it it came to pass -- Labour's best EVER result in the Senedd.

    There is another peculiarity about this polling -- many of the parties are missing!

    Polling average for March in Wales are roughly (constituency, list)

    Lab: 32/31%
    Con: 30/28%
    Plaid: 23/22%
    LDem: 5/4%
    Reform: 3/0%
    Green: 2/3%
    Abolish: -/7%

    Why are BritainElects/Opinium only prompting for UKIP? UKIP aren't even standing in most seats.They should be prompting for Abolish and Reform (the former will certainly win some list seats).

    The main question in Wales is what will happen to the large 2016 UKIP vote.

    But, if you don't even offer UKIP's successor parties in your poll, you are not likely to get an accurate answer.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited April 2021
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    Yearly qualification or relegation is fine - the important thing is that you don't staythere permanently because you joined at the beginning.
    I am surprised the ESL didn't think of that and have a fudge which was basically we are having founding clubs in a league, and then we will form a second division, and establish ability for progression....but fudge the funding such that the founders are shareholders in the league and thus get the bigger payouts every year (which would cushion them if they did go down to tier 2 of the ESL).
    I think the issue is that Americans were involved and they didn't understand how sport works outside the USA..
    But that is kinda of how the likes of the NFL work...the shareholder get their guaranteed payouts. All they had to do is fudged so theoretically possible, but practically impossible for the founders to drop out the thing entirely, the owners will always be raking it in.
    That's my point - in the NFL any team in any division could in theory win this years superbowl.

    If you have relegation the teams in division 2 can't do that..

    Another issue was the 5 guest teams, given you have 15 founders a system based on 32 teams (17 invites rather than 5) would have made way more sense and been way more interesting all round.
    That's true, but the NFL is deliberately setup so dominant teams are handicapped, which is the opposite of football. The owners are able to put up with periods where they know it will be nearly impossible to be competing for the Superbowl, because they have a guaranteed share of the revenue.

    ESL founding fathers could have the same guaranteed share idea, but without even the handicapping of the NFL style drafting system and only a tiny risk of actually ending up being uncompetitive. The "guest" teams / Johnny come latelies will be the ones at the massive disadvantage year in year out.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,390

    Alistair said:
    I assume this means they think they have the votes?
    50 + the speaker so 51
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't all play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    I have been saying since Sunday that it was a bargaining chip and that it would never actually happen.

    WILL @Leon NOW CONCEDE I WAS RIGHT? (again)
    lol. Of course!

    But I will wait until the monster has been finally slain

    At the moment, it is looking good, I agree
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,889
    Stocky said:

    Anyone been to Jersey? What's it like - best parts to stay - what's the capital like - should we base there - etc?

    Any help much appreciated.

    Mrs Stodge and I stayed at the Somerville Hotel at St Brelade's By five or six years ago. The evening meals were 7-course gastronomic gut-busters but every course a gem. This offset an average room - small, lacking in the amenities we had come to expect from too many trips to Vegas but that's British and European hotels for you (for the most part).

    We hired a car - as others have said, the traffic is manic. The land train from St Brelade's to St Helier is charming - all the buses radiate out from the central St Helier bus station and it's fair to say the Les Landes racecourse isn't Ascot or indeed Lingfield.

    The other thing was everyone and everything was mad on Bergerac - where it was filmed, umpteen "genuine Bergerac cars" etc.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,390

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    Yearly qualification or relegation is fine - the important thing is that you don't staythere permanently because you joined at the beginning.
    I am surprised the ESL didn't think of that and have a fudge which was basically we are having founding clubs in a league, and then we will form a second division, and establish ability for progression....but fudge the funding such that the founders are shareholders in the league and thus get the bigger payouts every year (which would cushion them if they did go down to tier 2 of the ESL).

    Then they could say, look there is still the dream...we just happen to put our thumb on the scale such that most other clubs won't ever be able to compete.
    Greed
    But in a way my suggestion could make them even more money. Two divisions, even more dosho, and the founding fathers are exclusive shareholders in the enterprise of. They would be only taking a tiny risk of dropping down two tiers (its like thinking Man Utd would ever get relegated from the EPL and then the Championship, ain't going to happen), with huge potential upside.
    See Leeds / Sunderland / Forest...
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Alistair said:
    I assume this means they think they have the votes?
    No. It means it will pass the House vote, but progress in the Senate is doubtful. Possible, but unlikely.

    Still, I may be wrong, but I think this will be as far as Statehood has ever got.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eek said:

    Alistair said:
    I assume this means they think they have the votes?
    50 + the speaker so 51
    That's assuming Manchin etc are on board.

    The GOP would seek to filibuster it and Manchin has been against dropping the filibuster until now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited April 2021
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    Yearly qualification or relegation is fine - the important thing is that you don't staythere permanently because you joined at the beginning.
    I am surprised the ESL didn't think of that and have a fudge which was basically we are having founding clubs in a league, and then we will form a second division, and establish ability for progression....but fudge the funding such that the founders are shareholders in the league and thus get the bigger payouts every year (which would cushion them if they did go down to tier 2 of the ESL).

    Then they could say, look there is still the dream...we just happen to put our thumb on the scale such that most other clubs won't ever be able to compete.
    Greed
    But in a way my suggestion could make them even more money. Two divisions, even more dosho, and the founding fathers are exclusive shareholders in the enterprise of. They would be only taking a tiny risk of dropping down two tiers (its like thinking Man Utd would ever get relegated from the EPL and then the Championship, ain't going to happen), with huge potential upside.
    See Leeds / Sunderland / Forest...
    Leeds brief 2000s success was built on an illusion. Sunderland / Forest in the EPL era have never been competitive. The scales are now so tipped in the top few favours, it is a near impossibility for them to be relegated, let alone go down two divisions. Man Utd, City, etc have such vast resource they can buy a whole new team if needed, something Leeds couldn't even actually afford the one team they had that was good.

    An ESL with founding fathers being the shareholders, unlike EPL where there is sharing out and parachute payments etc, would tip that balance even further. And this money would be guaranteed forever, unlike if you do drop down the regular football pyramid.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    Yearly qualification or relegation is fine - the important thing is that you don't staythere permanently because you joined at the beginning.
    I am surprised the ESL didn't think of that and have a fudge which was basically we are having founding clubs in a league, and then we will form a second division, and establish ability for progression....but fudge the funding such that the founders are shareholders in the league and thus get the bigger payouts every year (which would cushion them if they did go down to tier 2 of the ESL).

    Then they could say, look there is still the dream...we just happen to put our thumb on the scale such that most other clubs won't ever be able to compete.
    Greed
    But in a way my suggestion could make them even more money. Two divisions, even more dosho, and the founding fathers are exclusive shareholders in the enterprise of. They would be only taking a tiny risk of dropping down two tiers (its like thinking Man Utd would ever get relegated from the EPL and then the Championship, ain't going to happen), with huge potential upside.
    See Leeds / Sunderland / Forest...
    Manchester City too! Those are four traditionally "big clubs" that have been in the third tier. Have Wednesday been there too at some stage?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,467

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    A shame. So the bullies win, after all.
    Not sure they "win"

    They won't get franchise status, and the owners of the Stupid Six have utterly trashed their reputations

    For some - like FSG at Liverpool - there might be no coming back
    If there's a compromise then FSG can say they have listened to the fan response and will be proceeding with the wishes of the fans, then I don't think that will trash their reputations.

    When clubs ignore the wishes of the fans and proceed regardless against their wishes, that's what trashes reputations.
    The "big 6" have already and irretrievably trashed their reputations, no matter what you think.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,428
    edited April 2021

    Deaths down
    Admissions down
    Positive tests down
    Testing up

    4/4

    And you still can't see your parents indoors...
    (Edit - typo)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    Yearly qualification or relegation is fine - the important thing is that you don't staythere permanently because you joined at the beginning.
    I am surprised the ESL didn't think of that and have a fudge which was basically we are having founding clubs in a league, and then we will form a second division, and establish ability for progression....but fudge the funding such that the founders are shareholders in the league and thus get the bigger payouts every year (which would cushion them if they did go down to tier 2 of the ESL).

    Then they could say, look there is still the dream...we just happen to put our thumb on the scale such that most other clubs won't ever be able to compete.
    Greed
    But in a way my suggestion could make them even more money. Two divisions, even more dosho, and the founding fathers are exclusive shareholders in the enterprise of. They would be only taking a tiny risk of dropping down two tiers (its like thinking Man Utd would ever get relegated from the EPL and then the Championship, ain't going to happen), with huge potential upside.
    See Leeds / Sunderland / Forest...
    Manchester City too! Those are four traditionally "big clubs" [cut]
    And City aren't one of them.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    Lol. Just discovered that, with the 6 teams' records expunged, Everton have 8 Premier League titles!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,192

    LOL The Telegraph refers to Lineker as "The Queen Mother of Football"

    Fond of gin, is he ?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,467
    dixiedean said:

    Lol. Just discovered that, with the 6 teams' records expunged, Everton have 8 Premier League titles!

    5 for Newcastle too. B)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    A shame. So the bullies win, after all.
    Not sure they "win"

    They won't get franchise status, and the owners of the Stupid Six have utterly trashed their reputations

    For some - like FSG at Liverpool - there might be no coming back
    If there's a compromise then FSG can say they have listened to the fan response and will be proceeding with the wishes of the fans, then I don't think that will trash their reputations.

    When clubs ignore the wishes of the fans and proceed regardless against their wishes, that's what trashes reputations.
    The "big 6" have already and irretrievably trashed their reputations, no matter what you think.
    Well if that's the case they've no reason to back down have they? May as well proceed.

    If they take the fans response on board then that's not trashing anything as far as I'm concerned.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    Yearly qualification or relegation is fine - the important thing is that you don't staythere permanently because you joined at the beginning.
    I am surprised the ESL didn't think of that and have a fudge which was basically we are having founding clubs in a league, and then we will form a second division, and establish ability for progression....but fudge the funding such that the founders are shareholders in the league and thus get the bigger payouts every year (which would cushion them if they did go down to tier 2 of the ESL).

    Then they could say, look there is still the dream...we just happen to put our thumb on the scale such that most other clubs won't ever be able to compete.
    Greed
    But in a way my suggestion could make them even more money. Two divisions, even more dosho, and the founding fathers are exclusive shareholders in the enterprise of. They would be only taking a tiny risk of dropping down two tiers (its like thinking Man Utd would ever get relegated from the EPL and then the Championship, ain't going to happen), with huge potential upside.
    See Leeds / Sunderland / Forest...
    Manchester City too! Those are four traditionally "big clubs" that have been in the third tier. Have Wednesday been there too at some stage?
    Yes. And Aston Villa.
    Wolves and Sheffield United were fourth division as well.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,217

    FPT on Richard Dawkins: his problem is his consistency - he's an evidence-based individual with a nose for bullshit and calls it out (not always diplomatically) wherever he finds it. He's correctly detected that Wokeism is simply yet another religion - albeit a secular one.

    Personally? I'm rooting for him. I'm tired of being told I have to believe in things that simply aren't true, and I think many other people are as well.

    My take on Dawkins is that he is in general a prejudiced bullshitter who thinks his prejudice is based on evidence.

    On this question, though, he is correct.
  • https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1384526639736963077?s=20
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 43% (+1)
    LAB: 34% (-1)
    LDM: 7% (=)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    GRN: 4% (=)

    Via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 16-18 Apr.
    Changes w/ 9-11 Apr.

    The outlier was maybe wrong, but a mild trend...
  • PJHPJH Posts: 646
    Stocky said:

    Anyone been to Jersey? What's it like - best parts to stay - what's the capital like - should we base there - etc?

    Any help much appreciated.

    As half a Guernseyman I scratch my head as to why you'd want to go :smile:

    The north is rural and hillier, south built up and flatter. Gorey is the picture postcard with the castle on all the posters. Through gritted teeth I admit that St Brelade's Bay is the best beach in the Channel islands.

    If you hire a car it doesn't much matter where you stay but my preference would be to avoid St Helier. Either go for a nice hotel with a coastal view or either Gorey or St Aubin if you want to have somewhere to walk to for a meal/drink in the evenings. Haven't been for a while so i won't give any recommendations on exactly where to stay
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    Yearly qualification or relegation is fine - the important thing is that you don't staythere permanently because you joined at the beginning.
    I am surprised the ESL didn't think of that and have a fudge which was basically we are having founding clubs in a league, and then we will form a second division, and establish ability for progression....but fudge the funding such that the founders are shareholders in the league and thus get the bigger payouts every year (which would cushion them if they did go down to tier 2 of the ESL).

    Then they could say, look there is still the dream...we just happen to put our thumb on the scale such that most other clubs won't ever be able to compete.
    Greed
    But in a way my suggestion could make them even more money. Two divisions, even more dosho, and the founding fathers are exclusive shareholders in the enterprise of. They would be only taking a tiny risk of dropping down two tiers (its like thinking Man Utd would ever get relegated from the EPL and then the Championship, ain't going to happen), with huge potential upside.
    See Leeds / Sunderland / Forest...
    Manchester City too! Those are four traditionally "big clubs" [cut]
    And City aren't one of them.
    City were indeed in the third tier for one season – went up by the playoffs.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    edited April 2021

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1384526639736963077?s=20
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 43% (+1)
    LAB: 34% (-1)
    LDM: 7% (=)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    GRN: 4% (=)

    Via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 16-18 Apr.
    Changes w/ 9-11 Apr.

    The outlier was maybe wrong, but a mild trend...

    Is that -1 the vote he lost from the Bath landlord?

    (Yes I know this was taken before yesterday, I am joking).
  • https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1384526639736963077?s=20
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 43% (+1)
    LAB: 34% (-1)
    LDM: 7% (=)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    GRN: 4% (=)

    Via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 16-18 Apr.
    Changes w/ 9-11 Apr.

    The outlier was maybe wrong, but a mild trend...

    Facking hell's bells.

    Are you so starved of excitement in your life that you get overexcited at sub sub MOE changes in polls?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,192
    Good candidate for ARIA funding:
    https://www.eetimes.com/atomic-clocks-get-smaller-lighter-more-precise/

    Potential key technology, with national security uses, and UK players.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,542
    MattW said:

    FPT on Richard Dawkins: his problem is his consistency - he's an evidence-based individual with a nose for bullshit and calls it out (not always diplomatically) wherever he finds it. He's correctly detected that Wokeism is simply yet another religion - albeit a secular one.

    Personally? I'm rooting for him. I'm tired of being told I have to believe in things that simply aren't true, and I think many other people are as well.

    My take on Dawkins is that he is in general a prejudiced bullshitter who thinks his prejudice is based on evidence.

    On this question, though, he is correct.
    I must admit that, although as an atheist I should be a fan of Dawkins, his manner and his desire to belittle people because of their beliefs (rather than just attacking those belief systems) means I find him pretty offensive.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1384526639736963077?s=20
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 43% (+1)
    LAB: 34% (-1)
    LDM: 7% (=)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    GRN: 4% (=)

    Via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 16-18 Apr.
    Changes w/ 9-11 Apr.

    The outlier was maybe wrong, but a mild trend...

    Still MoE of 42/36
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Deaths down
    Admissions down
    Positive tests down
    Testing up

    4/4

    And you still can't see your parents indoors...
    (Edit - typo)
    I think they'll just stick with it now but won't extend it – 17 May it is IMO.

    In other matters, the Indian variant has been with us since February. Were it materially worse than the other variants, wouldn't we expect to see positive tests rising rather than falling (especially given testing is increasing)?

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313


    There are reasons to be very wary of this poll.

    The best ever result in Wales by Labour was in 2003 under Rhodri Morgan (40/37 % for constituency/list) and in 2011 under Carwyn Jones (42/37 %).

    This poll is predicting that Drakeford (40/38 %) will ACTUALLY do better than Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones on the list. It looks unbelievable. The Labour vote is resilient in Wales, but there is no way Drakeford is as popular as Rhodri Morgan or Carwyn Jones at their peak.

    It would be -- it it came to pass -- Labour's best EVER result in the Senedd.

    There is another peculiarity about this polling -- many of the parties are missing!

    Polling average for March in Wales are roughly (constituency, list)

    Lab: 32/31%
    Con: 30/28%
    Plaid: 23/22%
    LDem: 5/4%
    Reform: 3/0%
    Green: 2/3%
    Abolish: -/7%

    Why are BritainElects/Opinium only prompting for UKIP? UKIP aren't even standing in most seats.They should be prompting for Abolish and Reform (the former will certainly win some list seats).

    The main question in Wales is what will happen to the large 2016 UKIP vote.

    But, if you don't even offer UKIP's successor parties in your poll, you are not likely to get an accurate answer.

    It will provide considerable succour to Labour supporters, not because of the results for Drakeford, but because the inference is that in these very strange times any incompetent fat bloke who is on the telly a lot and manages to claim the credit for the fact that we have an effective vaccine programme will do well in opinion polls. When normality returns it will take genuine competence to receive the endorsement of the public. Perhaps.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    Yearly qualification or relegation is fine - the important thing is that you don't staythere permanently because you joined at the beginning.
    I am surprised the ESL didn't think of that and have a fudge which was basically we are having founding clubs in a league, and then we will form a second division, and establish ability for progression....but fudge the funding such that the founders are shareholders in the league and thus get the bigger payouts every year (which would cushion them if they did go down to tier 2 of the ESL).

    Then they could say, look there is still the dream...we just happen to put our thumb on the scale such that most other clubs won't ever be able to compete.
    Greed
    But in a way my suggestion could make them even more money. Two divisions, even more dosho, and the founding fathers are exclusive shareholders in the enterprise of. They would be only taking a tiny risk of dropping down two tiers (its like thinking Man Utd would ever get relegated from the EPL and then the Championship, ain't going to happen), with huge potential upside.
    See Leeds / Sunderland / Forest...
    Manchester City too! Those are four traditionally "big clubs" [cut]
    And City aren't one of them.
    City were indeed in the third tier for one season – went up by the playoffs.
    In City (of those days) style too.
    2-0 down in the 89th minute.
  • Apropos of yesterday morning's thread.

    “I got the Chinese s**t,” the Trump-loving musician said in a Facebook live video filled with racist slurs.

    Still, he repeated his refusal to receive a COVID-19 vaccine ― a stance he first took last year in defiance of regulatory approvals and public health experts worldwide who have deemed the shots safe and effective.

    “Nobody knows what’s in it,” Nugent said, falsely, in the Facebook live video. “If you can’t even honestly answer our questions of exactly what’s in it and why are you testing it on human beings and forcing it on people in such a short period of time?”


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ted-nugent-tests-positive-coronavirus_n_607eb2b8e4b0df3610c03264?ri18n=true&ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000016
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    edited April 2021
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    Yearly qualification or relegation is fine - the important thing is that you don't staythere permanently because you joined at the beginning.
    I am surprised the ESL didn't think of that and have a fudge which was basically we are having founding clubs in a league, and then we will form a second division, and establish ability for progression....but fudge the funding such that the founders are shareholders in the league and thus get the bigger payouts every year (which would cushion them if they did go down to tier 2 of the ESL).

    Then they could say, look there is still the dream...we just happen to put our thumb on the scale such that most other clubs won't ever be able to compete.
    Greed
    But in a way my suggestion could make them even more money. Two divisions, even more dosho, and the founding fathers are exclusive shareholders in the enterprise of. They would be only taking a tiny risk of dropping down two tiers (its like thinking Man Utd would ever get relegated from the EPL and then the Championship, ain't going to happen), with huge potential upside.
    See Leeds / Sunderland / Forest...
    Manchester City too! Those are four traditionally "big clubs" [cut]
    And City aren't one of them.
    City were indeed in the third tier for one season – went up by the playoffs.
    In City (of those days) style too.
    2-0 down in the 89th minute.
    Indeed, there's a great documentary on Sky about that: We're Not Really Here

    Brilliant film – recommended for all football fans. See also I Believe in Miracles (on Forest's glory days).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    MattW said:

    FPT on Richard Dawkins: his problem is his consistency - he's an evidence-based individual with a nose for bullshit and calls it out (not always diplomatically) wherever he finds it. He's correctly detected that Wokeism is simply yet another religion - albeit a secular one.

    Personally? I'm rooting for him. I'm tired of being told I have to believe in things that simply aren't true, and I think many other people are as well.

    My take on Dawkins is that he is in general a prejudiced bullshitter who thinks his prejudice is based on evidence.

    On this question, though, he is correct.
    I must admit that, although as an atheist I should be a fan of Dawkins, his manner and his desire to belittle people because of their beliefs (rather than just attacking those belief systems) means I find him pretty offensive.
    Yes. He's irritating. He also cherry picks.
    He declares Buddhism not to be a religion because it doesn't fit his criticisms of religions.
    Which ain't very scientific.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,428

    Deaths down
    Admissions down
    Positive tests down
    Testing up

    4/4

    And you still can't see your parents indoors...
    (Edit - typo)
    I think they'll just stick with it now but won't extend it – 17 May it is IMO.

    In other matters, the Indian variant has been with us since February. Were it materially worse than the other variants, wouldn't we expect to see positive tests rising rather than falling (especially given testing is increasing)?

    I think so yes. Partly this goes to the heart of the argument of lockdown vs vaccination programme for the progress we have made since January (surely a mix of both) and also how likely is complete vaccine escape for variants that are still able to infect as covid? Certainly among an unvaccinated population we would have a problem, but that is not the case now happily.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    MattW said:

    FPT on Richard Dawkins: his problem is his consistency - he's an evidence-based individual with a nose for bullshit and calls it out (not always diplomatically) wherever he finds it. He's correctly detected that Wokeism is simply yet another religion - albeit a secular one.

    Personally? I'm rooting for him. I'm tired of being told I have to believe in things that simply aren't true, and I think many other people are as well.

    My take on Dawkins is that he is in general a prejudiced bullshitter who thinks his prejudice is based on evidence.

    On this question, though, he is correct.
    I must admit that, although as an atheist I should be a fan of Dawkins, his manner and his desire to belittle people because of their beliefs (rather than just attacking those belief systems) means I find him pretty offensive.
    Yes, I think that's fair. I can't help but be a little amused, however, at how those who previously cheered him on in all his glory and have turned on the head of a sixpence and cancelled him, because he's had the audacity to do it to a religion they believe in.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,889
    Afternoon all :)

    Day 3 of the Great Football Crisis of 2021 and the hyperbolic outpourings continue it seems.

    Back in the real world, I wonder what the Thatcher Government's response would have been. Probably something along the lines of it's not Government's role to get involved in the internal affairs of football, market forces, blah, blah, etc.

    It shows how far modern populist conservatism has travelled from the "small state" era of the 1980s and early 1990s.

    You'd think Government would have more things to worry about than the fate of some football clubs. As others have said, where was the Government to help Bury or Dover Athletic?

    One could argue allowing non-British domiciled individuals to take a majority stake in football clubs was the first mistake but if you live by the sword of the free movement of capital then you have to die by that sword.

    MY sport is horse racing (as you've guessed) and the equivalent would be if Coolmore, Godolphin , Shadwell, Qatar Racing and three or four of the other top Owners decided they weren't going to run their horses at the scheduled meetings but they were going to run their own network of races open only to their horses. 1-2 meetings per week across Europe - say at Ascot, Goodwood, Longchamp or The Curragh.

    Their closed races would be run for huge purses - far more than the main programme so their "Derby" would go for £5 million rather then £1 million. They would invite the top Australian, American and Japanese owners and horses to join "World Elite Racing".

    These fixtures would then be sold back to bookmakers and media rights for huge amounts of money.

    That's basically the ESL as I understand it.

    If racing followed the proposed UEFA response, the Owners, Trainers and Jockeys would be barred from competing in the main schedule so Ryan Moore would never ride at LIngfield again - instead, he'd have 12-15 rides per week for Coolmore in World Elite Racing for which he would presumably earn a hefty fee quite apart from the prize money percentage.

    Does football suffer if Liverpool or Chelsea don't grace Carrow Road or Vicarage Road next season? To a point, yes but to another point the door for the likes of Norwich, Watford, Burnley, Everton and others for Champions League and Europa League football swings open.

    Then it's down to the broadcasters and the fans - is ESL to be deliberately shunned or, as those with experience of substance addiction on here may attest, will it be too difficult to go "cold turkey" with what remains?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited April 2021
    dixiedean said:

    Lol. Just discovered that, with the 6 teams' records expunged, Everton have 8 Premier League titles!

    That is a wonderful illustration of a point I was making to someone about Everton the other day. He was not very aware of them. I said they were one of the few clubs never relegated, and were always a bridesmaid - in the top 5-8 places most seasons, but rarely getting to go to Europe.

    Shows just how consistently 'almost there' Everton are.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,467
    https://twitter.com/SkyKaveh/status/1384519504596807684

    Kaveh Solhekol
    @SkyKaveh
    Senior exec at one of 6 breakaway clubs called senior exec at one of 14 clubs this morning and said “We don’t want to leave the Premier League but people haven’t been listening to us here. We are still open to having a dialogue with you”. Phone call did not go down well.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,219
    PJH said:

    Stocky said:

    Anyone been to Jersey? What's it like - best parts to stay - what's the capital like - should we base there - etc?

    Any help much appreciated.

    As half a Guernseyman I scratch my head as to why you'd want to go :smile:

    The north is rural and hillier, south built up and flatter. Gorey is the picture postcard with the castle on all the posters. Through gritted teeth I admit that St Brelade's Bay is the best beach in the Channel islands.

    If you hire a car it doesn't much matter where you stay but my preference would be to avoid St Helier. Either go for a nice hotel with a coastal view or either Gorey or St Aubin if you want to have somewhere to walk to for a meal/drink in the evenings. Haven't been for a while so i won't give any recommendations on exactly where to stay
    Jersey is the most "foreign" we can manage that counts as a domestic flight.

    Seems an opportunity to go. I'd also like to go to Scotland but my wife seems think its rife with midges and too effing cold.

    There is a glamping place associated with Darwin zoo go I'm checking that out. Also checking out a country hotel in the middle of the island.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,192
    Did anyone know this ?

    https://twitter.com/rebeccamakkai/status/1384240754277576711
    Joseph Williams, the lead singer of Toto, is the son of John Williams, the legendary film score composer...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    MattW said:

    FPT on Richard Dawkins: his problem is his consistency - he's an evidence-based individual with a nose for bullshit and calls it out (not always diplomatically) wherever he finds it. He's correctly detected that Wokeism is simply yet another religion - albeit a secular one.

    Personally? I'm rooting for him. I'm tired of being told I have to believe in things that simply aren't true, and I think many other people are as well.

    My take on Dawkins is that he is in general a prejudiced bullshitter who thinks his prejudice is based on evidence.

    On this question, though, he is correct.
    I must admit that, although as an atheist I should be a fan of Dawkins, his manner and his desire to belittle people because of their beliefs (rather than just attacking those belief systems) means I find him pretty offensive.
    Richard Dawkins' unquestioning belief in Richard Dawkins is a belief set that is worthy of his own bilious derision.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    Yearly qualification or relegation is fine - the important thing is that you don't staythere permanently because you joined at the beginning.
    I am surprised the ESL didn't think of that and have a fudge which was basically we are having founding clubs in a league, and then we will form a second division, and establish ability for progression....but fudge the funding such that the founders are shareholders in the league and thus get the bigger payouts every year (which would cushion them if they did go down to tier 2 of the ESL).

    Then they could say, look there is still the dream...we just happen to put our thumb on the scale such that most other clubs won't ever be able to compete.
    Greed
    But in a way my suggestion could make them even more money. Two divisions, even more dosho, and the founding fathers are exclusive shareholders in the enterprise of. They would be only taking a tiny risk of dropping down two tiers (its like thinking Man Utd would ever get relegated from the EPL and then the Championship, ain't going to happen), with huge potential upside.
    See Leeds / Sunderland / Forest...
    Manchester City too! Those are four traditionally "big clubs" [cut]
    And City aren't one of them.
    City were indeed in the third tier for one season – went up by the playoffs.
    In City (of those days) style too.
    2-0 down in the 89th minute.
    Indeed, there's a great documentary on Sky about that: We're Not Really Here

    Brilliant film – recommended for all football fans. See also I Believe in Miracles (on Forest's glory days).
    Boys of Summer. A Teesside documentary maker goes to North Korea to track down the 1966 WC quarter final team.
    Utterly fascinating football documentary if you haven't seen it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1384526639736963077?s=20
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    CON: 43% (+1)
    LAB: 34% (-1)
    LDM: 7% (=)
    SNP: 5% (=)
    GRN: 4% (=)

    Via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 16-18 Apr.
    Changes w/ 9-11 Apr.

    The outlier was maybe wrong, but a mild trend...

    Facking hell's bells.

    Are you so starved of excitement in your life that you get overexcited at sub sub MOE changes in polls?
    When it is in this direction, yes. ;)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,475
    dixiedean said:

    MattW said:

    FPT on Richard Dawkins: his problem is his consistency - he's an evidence-based individual with a nose for bullshit and calls it out (not always diplomatically) wherever he finds it. He's correctly detected that Wokeism is simply yet another religion - albeit a secular one.

    Personally? I'm rooting for him. I'm tired of being told I have to believe in things that simply aren't true, and I think many other people are as well.

    My take on Dawkins is that he is in general a prejudiced bullshitter who thinks his prejudice is based on evidence.

    On this question, though, he is correct.
    I must admit that, although as an atheist I should be a fan of Dawkins, his manner and his desire to belittle people because of their beliefs (rather than just attacking those belief systems) means I find him pretty offensive.
    Yes. He's irritating. He also cherry picks.
    He declares Buddhism not to be a religion because it doesn't fit his criticisms of religions.
    Which ain't very scientific.
    There's also a very strange 'reigion-like' cult of personality built up around him, with spotty little herberts sending him in drawings of him they've done etc. It's all very odd. He's the epitome of the 'expert' we've 'had enough of' imo - nothing wrong with an expert in their field, but you wouldn't take a poorly dog to a mechanic, so why ask a biologist to opine on religion?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080

    https://twitter.com/SkyKaveh/status/1384519504596807684

    Kaveh Solhekol
    @SkyKaveh
    Senior exec at one of 6 breakaway clubs called senior exec at one of 14 clubs this morning and said “We don’t want to leave the Premier League but people haven’t been listening to us here. We are still open to having a dialogue with you”. Phone call did not go down well.

    This reminds me of the Brexit talks...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,030
    Sort of on topic, I am confused by the notion of Andrew RT Davies. Surely Alex RT Salmond would be more appropriate?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,390
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Well, I think this closes the ESL argument. The clubs will get more money, anyway. Watch the skittles fall now


    https://twitter.com/mohamedbouhafsi/status/1384520390584774661?s=20


    Mohamed Bouhafsi
    @mohamedbouhafsi
    ·
    4m
    UEFA is preparing a counter-attack in the Super League. UEFA is working with english investment fund to come up with new LOC that would have a starting budget of 4.5 billion € but which could go up to 7 billion.

    As some said, was it all brinksmanship after all, UEFA were stuck on their stupid CL idea of 6000 teams in a league that don't play one another and the 498th placed team could still qualify for the playoffs...Are they going to basically go for say a two division "Super League", but with yearly qualification for the bottom tier?
    Yearly qualification or relegation is fine - the important thing is that you don't staythere permanently because you joined at the beginning.
    I am surprised the ESL didn't think of that and have a fudge which was basically we are having founding clubs in a league, and then we will form a second division, and establish ability for progression....but fudge the funding such that the founders are shareholders in the league and thus get the bigger payouts every year (which would cushion them if they did go down to tier 2 of the ESL).

    Then they could say, look there is still the dream...we just happen to put our thumb on the scale such that most other clubs won't ever be able to compete.
    Greed
    But in a way my suggestion could make them even more money. Two divisions, even more dosho, and the founding fathers are exclusive shareholders in the enterprise of. They would be only taking a tiny risk of dropping down two tiers (its like thinking Man Utd would ever get relegated from the EPL and then the Championship, ain't going to happen), with huge potential upside.
    See Leeds / Sunderland / Forest...
    Manchester City too! Those are four traditionally "big clubs" [cut]
    And City aren't one of them.
    City were indeed in the third tier for one season – went up by the playoffs.
    In City (of those days) style too.
    2-0 down in the 89th minute.
    I remember watching that match in a pub in Amersham because we couldn't get tickets for the Gillingham end as we had been away on holiday when the tickets were released.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,724
    Nigelb said:

    LOL The Telegraph refers to Lineker as "The Queen Mother of Football"

    Fond of gin, is he ?
    Unsurprising that Mr Compromise came out and said.. there must be a compromise...
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    https://twitter.com/SkyKaveh/status/1384519504596807684

    Kaveh Solhekol
    @SkyKaveh
    Senior exec at one of 6 breakaway clubs called senior exec at one of 14 clubs this morning and said “We don’t want to leave the Premier League but people haven’t been listening to us here. We are still open to having a dialogue with you”. Phone call did not go down well.

    This reminds me of the Brexit talks...
    You mean Cameron's pre-Brexit negotiation?
  • On topic

    I did not agree that Drakeford would lose his seat

    I have said many times that Labour are the likely next Welsh Government possibly, with assistance from Plaid

    Andrew RT Davies is a poor leader of the Welsh Conservatives

    Drakeford 29% approval demonstrates how poor/ little known are the leaders of all the parties, with 32% not even knowing best FM

    I do give Drakeford credit for supporting the union and of course Plaid seem to be down on this poll.

    And it is a fact that for those living in Wales we have suffered 22 years of failure by Welsh labour in health, education, and poverty

    Carwyn Jones was a far better leader than Drakeford will ever be, but I do accept that this poll may indicate Drakeford is getting some benefit from the vaccination rollout
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Stocky said:

    PJH said:

    Stocky said:

    Anyone been to Jersey? What's it like - best parts to stay - what's the capital like - should we base there - etc?

    Any help much appreciated.

    As half a Guernseyman I scratch my head as to why you'd want to go :smile:

    The north is rural and hillier, south built up and flatter. Gorey is the picture postcard with the castle on all the posters. Through gritted teeth I admit that St Brelade's Bay is the best beach in the Channel islands.

    If you hire a car it doesn't much matter where you stay but my preference would be to avoid St Helier. Either go for a nice hotel with a coastal view or either Gorey or St Aubin if you want to have somewhere to walk to for a meal/drink in the evenings. Haven't been for a while so i won't give any recommendations on exactly where to stay
    Jersey is the most "foreign" we can manage that counts as a domestic flight.

    Seems an opportunity to go. I'd also like to go to Scotland but my wife seems think its rife with midges and too effing cold.

    There is a glamping place associated with Darwin zoo go I'm checking that out. Also checking out a country hotel in the middle of the island.
    It’s an island with Cornish style coast and scenery all around. Who would go there and stay in the middle?
This discussion has been closed.