France looking opening up the cultural/food sectors in Mid May.
Just like Le Royaume-Uni.
I'm not sure. He said terraces are opening in Mid May - i.e. what we are doing mid April. In mid May we will be allowed to sit inside.
Sounds like they are about a month behind, which makes sense with this extra month of lockdown
Looking at the history of the UK lockdown, however, are four weeks(-ish - the schools will be back in three) going to be enough? I know that they start with the advantage of being some distance into their vaccination project, but even in that regard France is only where the UK was - in terms of the proportion of the population to have been given a vaccine - at the end of January, and their upwards trajectory is much shallower.
Assuming that the unlocking sequence in England happens on schedule, it'll have been three full months from peak mortality to beer gardens. Assuming that the French epidemic follows the pattern of our January disaster, and peak mortality therefore comes about a fortnight into national lockdown, then they're proposing to make that transition in only one month. It doesn't seem realistic.
Evidence over the past year shows that a month is the absolute bare minimum for a lockdown to do much.
As a great libertarian I find this disappointing but yet not unsurprising.
This is like how Britons support the toughest sentences and punishments for offenders, and throw away the key for good measure, but go all gooey when they have personal experience of the criminal justice system.
Same with the benefits system.
Covid-19 really has shaken that up.
The massive support for the benefits cap seems a long time ago.
Id expect there is still wide support for a benefits cap (depending on the exact amount), the recent concerns wider society have noticed are more to do with the benefits floor and speed and ease of access to a safety net than the cap.
My friend works for a Job Centre Plus, her most common exchange with 'customers' in this last year?
New benefit recipient: I've just been paid my first Universal Credit payment, it is only £400 for the month, I thought it was £400 a week, how am I meant to live on £400 a month?
It's a weirdness of the system that the benefits cap is generally £20k, which, untaxed, is a lot, but that lots of people seem to receive derisory sums (400 pm being under £5k). There are three mysteries: Is this all true? Why does one never get to know the full package and value thereof someone gets (eg if your rent in paid, your council tax is paid etc this adds thousands of value)? And why is it so mystifyingly complicated to work out any particular case?
People mislead. The benefits system is hard as hell for single people without children, utterly derisory. The generosity kicks in with children.
Very quick reckoner, single person with two children £500 a month rent.
Universal credit £1,427 made up of
standard allowance £409 Child element £517 Housing cost £500
Plus child benefit.
Child benefit £140 =£1567.
UC also allows an earning ceiling as well. UC has its flaws but it is a much better system than what it replaced.
France looking opening up the cultural/food sectors in Mid May.
Just like Le Royaume-Uni.
I'm not sure. He said terraces are opening in Mid May - i.e. what we are doing mid April. In mid May we will be allowed to sit inside.
Sounds like they are about a month behind, which makes sense with this extra month of lockdown
Looking at the history of the UK lockdown, however, are four weeks(-ish - the schools will be back in three) going to be enough? I know that they start with the advantage of being some distance into their vaccination project, but even in that regard France is only where the UK was - in terms of the proportion of the population to have been given a vaccine - at the end of January, and their upwards trajectory is much shallower.
Assuming that the unlocking sequence in England happens on schedule, it'll have been three full months from peak mortality to beer gardens. Assuming that the French epidemic follows the pattern of our January disaster, and peak mortality therefore comes about a fortnight into national lockdown, then they're proposing to make that transition in only one month. It doesn't seem realistic.
Their timetable is optimistic, but I reckon they might just do it because of the vaccines. They are getting a surge of jabs through April/May
Nonetheless it will be perilous. They are looking at a scary and inevitable surge of cases, hospitalisations and deaths for 3-4 weeks
Turkey is also a shitshow. 40,000 cases today, and they aren't doing much testing, and their vax drive is embryonic
The vaccine schedule was meant to protect the people most in need. It is vile that vaccines are now being considered as a way to segregate society and allow the old to milk the young as imprisoned labour units. But suck it up, millennials.
France looking opening up the cultural/food sectors in Mid May.
Just like Le Royaume-Uni.
I'm not sure. He said terraces are opening in Mid May - i.e. what we are doing mid April. In mid May we will be allowed to sit inside.
Sounds like they are about a month behind, which makes sense with this extra month of lockdown
Looking at the history of the UK lockdown, however, are four weeks(-ish - the schools will be back in three) going to be enough? I know that they start with the advantage of being some distance into their vaccination project, but even in that regard France is only where the UK was - in terms of the proportion of the population to have been given a vaccine - at the end of January, and their upwards trajectory is much shallower.
Assuming that the unlocking sequence in England happens on schedule, it'll have been three full months from peak mortality to beer gardens. Assuming that the French epidemic follows the pattern of our January disaster, and peak mortality therefore comes about a fortnight into national lockdown, then they're proposing to make that transition in only one month. It doesn't seem realistic.
Their timetable is optimistic, but I reckon they might just do it because of the vaccines. They are getting a surge of jabs through April/May
Nonetheless it will be perilous. They are looking at a scary and inevitable surge of cases, hospitalisations and deaths for 3-4 weeks
Turkey is also a shitshow. 40,000 cases today, and they aren't doing much testing, and their vax drive is embryonic
How will a surge of jabs between April/May help though? Only those administered in the first week would have any effect on case numbers at the end of the proposed lockdown. Especially as the decision to extend has to be made a bit earlier.
Lots of people love wild swimming and enjoy articles and books about wild swimming. I own several. That the Guardian shouldn't publish features on wild swimming because a few nesh PBers don't like wild swimming is the epitome of an 'Only On PB' moment.
People have strong opinions on "wild swimming"?
Never heard of wild swimming before. What's the difference between wild swimming and — just swimming?
According to Anobobazina it's like comparing Putney to Mansfield ...or something!
France looking opening up the cultural/food sectors in Mid May.
Just like Le Royaume-Uni.
I'm not sure. He said terraces are opening in Mid May - i.e. what we are doing mid April. In mid May we will be allowed to sit inside.
Sounds like they are about a month behind, which makes sense with this extra month of lockdown
Looking at the history of the UK lockdown, however, are four weeks(-ish - the schools will be back in three) going to be enough? I know that they start with the advantage of being some distance into their vaccination project, but even in that regard France is only where the UK was - in terms of the proportion of the population to have been given a vaccine - at the end of January, and their upwards trajectory is much shallower.
Assuming that the unlocking sequence in England happens on schedule, it'll have been three full months from peak mortality to beer gardens. Assuming that the French epidemic follows the pattern of our January disaster, and peak mortality therefore comes about a fortnight into national lockdown, then they're proposing to make that transition in only one month. It doesn't seem realistic.
Their timetable is optimistic, but I reckon they might just do it because of the vaccines. They are getting a surge of jabs through April/May
Nonetheless it will be perilous. They are looking at a scary and inevitable surge of cases, hospitalisations and deaths for 3-4 weeks
Turkey is also a shitshow. 40,000 cases today, and they aren't doing much testing, and their vax drive is embryonic
How will a surge of jabs between April/May help though? Only those administered in the first week would have any effect on case numbers at the end of the proposed lockdown. Especially as the decision to extend has to be made a bit earlier.
It can really help with deaths. Two weeks after a jab you get some protection. If France can ramp up to 500,000 or more a day in the next fortnight, than 2-3 weeks time the deaths and hospitalisations will begin to fall, meaning they might just be able to keep to their deconfinement schedule.
It will be close tho, I readily confess that
Macron should have locked down a fortnight ago or more, and avoided this terrible danger
Sky News: "Paris's new vaccination centre will open next week and do 1,500 jabs a day."
That isn't very many....
So there are two possibilities.
One is that something in the story has got lost in translation. It's for a smallish part of the city, or it's not 1,500 jabs a day.
The other is that the French government is really talking about doing 1,500 jabs a day in Paris. When we know that they are doing several hundred thousand a day nationwide, with a substantial increase firmly pencilled in for the week after Easter. (We do all know that, don't we?)
But up onto the leg of the story the usual suspects in the professional and social media mount...
(No, they're not doing well. But, as when A Level Physics students calculate the mass of a car as 17 ounces, Please try applying some common sense.)
France looking opening up the cultural/food sectors in Mid May.
Just like Le Royaume-Uni.
I'm not sure. He said terraces are opening in Mid May - i.e. what we are doing mid April. In mid May we will be allowed to sit inside.
Sounds like they are about a month behind, which makes sense with this extra month of lockdown
Looking at the history of the UK lockdown, however, are four weeks(-ish - the schools will be back in three) going to be enough? I know that they start with the advantage of being some distance into their vaccination project, but even in that regard France is only where the UK was - in terms of the proportion of the population to have been given a vaccine - at the end of January, and their upwards trajectory is much shallower.
Assuming that the unlocking sequence in England happens on schedule, it'll have been three full months from peak mortality to beer gardens. Assuming that the French epidemic follows the pattern of our January disaster, and peak mortality therefore comes about a fortnight into national lockdown, then they're proposing to make that transition in only one month. It doesn't seem realistic.
Their timetable is optimistic, but I reckon they might just do it because of the vaccines. They are getting a surge of jabs through April/May
Nonetheless it will be perilous. They are looking at a scary and inevitable surge of cases, hospitalisations and deaths for 3-4 weeks
Turkey is also a shitshow. 40,000 cases today, and they aren't doing much testing, and their vax drive is embryonic
How will a surge of jabs between April/May help though? Only those administered in the first week would have any effect on case numbers at the end of the proposed lockdown. Especially as the decision to extend has to be made a bit earlier.
It can really help with deaths. Two weeks after a jab you get some protection. If France can ramp up to 500,000 or more a day in the next fortnight, than 2-3 weeks time the deaths and hospitalisations will begin to fall, meaning they might just be able to keep to their deconfinement schedule.
It will be close tho, I readily confess that
Macron should have locked down a fortnight ago or more, and avoided this terrible danger
I think it will take a lot longer, unfortunately. If someone is going to die in 4 weeks time, they will contract it in 2 weeks time. That's before the protection kicks in unfortunately.
France looking opening up the cultural/food sectors in Mid May.
Just like Le Royaume-Uni.
I'm not sure. He said terraces are opening in Mid May - i.e. what we are doing mid April. In mid May we will be allowed to sit inside.
Sounds like they are about a month behind, which makes sense with this extra month of lockdown
Looking at the history of the UK lockdown, however, are four weeks(-ish - the schools will be back in three) going to be enough? I know that they start with the advantage of being some distance into their vaccination project, but even in that regard France is only where the UK was - in terms of the proportion of the population to have been given a vaccine - at the end of January, and their upwards trajectory is much shallower.
Assuming that the unlocking sequence in England happens on schedule, it'll have been three full months from peak mortality to beer gardens. Assuming that the French epidemic follows the pattern of our January disaster, and peak mortality therefore comes about a fortnight into national lockdown, then they're proposing to make that transition in only one month. It doesn't seem realistic.
Their timetable is optimistic, but I reckon they might just do it because of the vaccines. They are getting a surge of jabs through April/May
Nonetheless it will be perilous. They are looking at a scary and inevitable surge of cases, hospitalisations and deaths for 3-4 weeks
Turkey is also a shitshow. 40,000 cases today, and they aren't doing much testing, and their vax drive is embryonic
How will a surge of jabs between April/May help though? Only those administered in the first week would have any effect on case numbers at the end of the proposed lockdown. Especially as the decision to extend has to be made a bit earlier.
It can really help with deaths. Two weeks after a jab you get some protection. If France can ramp up to 500,000 or more a day in the next fortnight, than 2-3 weeks time the deaths and hospitalisations will begin to fall, meaning they might just be able to keep to their deconfinement schedule.
It will be close tho, I readily confess that
Macron should have locked down a fortnight ago or more, and avoided this terrible danger
What will Merkel do? I know she is constrained by the Lander. But Germany really needs a hard lockdown asap.
Lots of people love wild swimming and enjoy articles and books about wild swimming. I own several. That the Guardian shouldn't publish features on wild swimming because a few nesh PBers don't like wild swimming is the epitome of an 'Only On PB' moment.
People have strong opinions on "wild swimming"?
Never heard of wild swimming before. What's the difference between wild swimming and — just swimming?
Why has Israel's vax rate topped out at just 60%?!
Surely, 40% of Israelis are not antivaxxers? I know the fundy Jews are anti vax, but they are only 10-15% of the population
Have they run out of jabs? What is going on?
I saw a report where they have hired people to round around in public basically stopping people and saying have you been vaccinated, and if no, saying we will take you now to get it done.
I find myself wondering if either he or Merkel will be European leaders for much longer.
The AfD are likely to win a state election in East Germany in early June. If all political careers end in failure, that will be a pretty big one for Merkel.
Jesus Sky News saying he is lying about all vaccination centres will be open 7 days a week, they saying they have been to some and asked and they said no will only ever be 6 days a week.
Well they are open twice on Mondays; morning and afternoon.
When I had a place in France all the shops closed for half day wednesday - if memory serves even the local supermarkets
Why has Israel's vax rate topped out at just 60%?!
Surely, 40% of Israelis are not antivaxxers? I know the fundy Jews are anti vax, but they are only 10-15% of the population
Have they run out of jabs? What is going on?
Kids, religious nutcases, anti-vaxxers. It all adds up.
Mainly kids, one would presume. According to the World Bank, 28% of the Israeli population is aged 0-14. The comparable figure for the UK is 18%, in line with the OECD average. The EU average is only 15%.
France looking opening up the cultural/food sectors in Mid May.
Just like Le Royaume-Uni.
I'm not sure. He said terraces are opening in Mid May - i.e. what we are doing mid April. In mid May we will be allowed to sit inside.
Sounds like they are about a month behind, which makes sense with this extra month of lockdown
Looking at the history of the UK lockdown, however, are four weeks(-ish - the schools will be back in three) going to be enough? I know that they start with the advantage of being some distance into their vaccination project, but even in that regard France is only where the UK was - in terms of the proportion of the population to have been given a vaccine - at the end of January, and their upwards trajectory is much shallower.
Assuming that the unlocking sequence in England happens on schedule, it'll have been three full months from peak mortality to beer gardens. Assuming that the French epidemic follows the pattern of our January disaster, and peak mortality therefore comes about a fortnight into national lockdown, then they're proposing to make that transition in only one month. It doesn't seem realistic.
Their timetable is optimistic, but I reckon they might just do it because of the vaccines. They are getting a surge of jabs through April/May
Nonetheless it will be perilous. They are looking at a scary and inevitable surge of cases, hospitalisations and deaths for 3-4 weeks
All of the EU countries are further behind us than it looks based on the raw numbers because our single-dose strategy allowed us to reach more people faster.
He's being a bit disingenuous suggesting that the referendum debate is between Nicola and the Tories but he is absolutely right that dealing with issues such as he describes is a bit more bloody urgent than referendums or even free bus travel bought with the misallocation of Covid funds from London.
At least we can count on President Le Pen having more moderate policies towards Muslims.
If you had said that 6 weeks ago I would have laughed .... but now......
The look on her face when a Minister accused her of being soft on Muslims was probably the funniest political moment of the year. Even ahead of Nicola's incredible amnesia before the Holyrood committee.
France looking opening up the cultural/food sectors in Mid May.
Just like Le Royaume-Uni.
I'm not sure. He said terraces are opening in Mid May - i.e. what we are doing mid April. In mid May we will be allowed to sit inside.
Sounds like they are about a month behind, which makes sense with this extra month of lockdown
Looking at the history of the UK lockdown, however, are four weeks(-ish - the schools will be back in three) going to be enough? I know that they start with the advantage of being some distance into their vaccination project, but even in that regard France is only where the UK was - in terms of the proportion of the population to have been given a vaccine - at the end of January, and their upwards trajectory is much shallower.
Assuming that the unlocking sequence in England happens on schedule, it'll have been three full months from peak mortality to beer gardens. Assuming that the French epidemic follows the pattern of our January disaster, and peak mortality therefore comes about a fortnight into national lockdown, then they're proposing to make that transition in only one month. It doesn't seem realistic.
Their timetable is optimistic, but I reckon they might just do it because of the vaccines. They are getting a surge of jabs through April/May
Nonetheless it will be perilous. They are looking at a scary and inevitable surge of cases, hospitalisations and deaths for 3-4 weeks
Turkey is also a shitshow. 40,000 cases today, and they aren't doing much testing, and their vax drive is embryonic
How will a surge of jabs between April/May help though? Only those administered in the first week would have any effect on case numbers at the end of the proposed lockdown. Especially as the decision to extend has to be made a bit earlier.
It can really help with deaths. Two weeks after a jab you get some protection. If France can ramp up to 500,000 or more a day in the next fortnight, than 2-3 weeks time the deaths and hospitalisations will begin to fall, meaning they might just be able to keep to their deconfinement schedule.
It will be close tho, I readily confess that
Macron should have locked down a fortnight ago or more, and avoided this terrible danger
I think it will take a lot longer, unfortunately. If someone is going to die in 4 weeks time, they will contract it in 2 weeks time. That's before the protection kicks in unfortunately.
But they won't get it in 2 weeks time. This is a strict lockdown and we know lockdowns are highly effective. Few people will catch it in 2 weeks time. The problem is the ones that have caught it recently and will catch it between now and Saturday.
If France is getting 40k cases daily now, that could rise to 60-70k cases in 2-3 weeks before it comes down fast (which it will).
That implies a death rate of nearly 1k a day at the worst, then quickly falling away.
It won't be as bad as our January, but it will be pretty bad.
Why has Israel's vax rate topped out at just 60%?!
Surely, 40% of Israelis are not antivaxxers? I know the fundy Jews are anti vax, but they are only 10-15% of the population
Have they run out of jabs? What is going on?
Kids, religious nutcases, anti-vaxxers. It all adds up.
Mainly kids, one would presume. According to the World Bank, 28% of the Israeli population is aged 0-14. The comparable figure for the UK is 18%, in line with the OECD average. The EU average is only 15%.
Thanks. That explains nearly all of it. Had no idea Israel was so young
France looking opening up the cultural/food sectors in Mid May.
Just like Le Royaume-Uni.
I'm not sure. He said terraces are opening in Mid May - i.e. what we are doing mid April. In mid May we will be allowed to sit inside.
Sounds like they are about a month behind, which makes sense with this extra month of lockdown
Looking at the history of the UK lockdown, however, are four weeks(-ish - the schools will be back in three) going to be enough? I know that they start with the advantage of being some distance into their vaccination project, but even in that regard France is only where the UK was - in terms of the proportion of the population to have been given a vaccine - at the end of January, and their upwards trajectory is much shallower.
Assuming that the unlocking sequence in England happens on schedule, it'll have been three full months from peak mortality to beer gardens. Assuming that the French epidemic follows the pattern of our January disaster, and peak mortality therefore comes about a fortnight into national lockdown, then they're proposing to make that transition in only one month. It doesn't seem realistic.
Their timetable is optimistic, but I reckon they might just do it because of the vaccines. They are getting a surge of jabs through April/May
Nonetheless it will be perilous. They are looking at a scary and inevitable surge of cases, hospitalisations and deaths for 3-4 weeks
Turkey is also a shitshow. 40,000 cases today, and they aren't doing much testing, and their vax drive is embryonic
I wonder if the German issues with vaccines is feeding back to Turkey via the 1.5/4.0 million Turks in Germany?
One or two interesting snippets from European polling today.
The latest Forsa poll in Germany has only minor changes with both the CDU/CSU and Greens up a point so it's 27-23. SPD 15%, AfD 11%, FDP 10% and Linke 7% soall well within margin of error.
In Poland, the political landscape has been rocked by he emergence of PL2050, a new grouping which has torn chunks out of the vote of the other main parties. They are a pro-EU grouping seeking to build a new Franco-German-Polish axis to be at the centre of the Union. In the latest poll, PL2050 has 27%, behind the governing PiS on 30% with the KO opposition bloc on 18%.
We'll do a full talk on Latvian politics another day - meanwhile, in Greece, signs of a small come back for Syriza but New Democracy retains a healthy 41-28 lead.
That's what Remain should have done. Instead of whinged and whined about the damage leave would do, they should have made the case for a positive vision where the UK took more of a leadership role in the future to shape the EU as we wanted it.
Alas, not to be.
My positive vison would have been the UK and the Northern European countries (i.e. the ones with a work ethic) ganging up on the Mediterranean countries.
Tony Blair tried to do the 'taking a lead' thing. It resulted in us giving up our rebate and the French and Germans doing what they were going to do anyway. You can't lead people where they don't want to go.
Why has Israel's vax rate topped out at just 60%?!
Surely, 40% of Israelis are not antivaxxers? I know the fundy Jews are anti vax, but they are only 10-15% of the population
Have they run out of jabs? What is going on?
Kids, religious nutcases, anti-vaxxers. It all adds up.
Mainly kids, one would presume. According to the World Bank, 28% of the Israeli population is aged 0-14. The comparable figure for the UK is 18%, in line with the OECD average. The EU average is only 15%.
Thanks. That explains nearly all of it. Had no idea Israel was so young
I presume Israel can do 12 - 15 yr olds now though with the new data ?
Presumably more emergency legislation will now be passed but similar to the Judge in Scotland who decided with all of the epidemiological expertise that he could bring to bear that closing down places of religion was "disproportionate" and a breach of convention rights you seriously wonder what f******* planet these people are on.
Don't know if it's been mentioned downthread, but France is closing down schools. Sad for them, but likely to be the start of many contrasts between the UK and EU which will look good for the government
On the headline topic, has the UK population become a set of f**king ninnies? Enough people will get the vaccine to create a high level of protection. We do not need to exclude those who do not or cannot.
Off-topic: Based on the concept that when a country sabre rattles it often increases troops on an opposing country's borders. After a point, the scale & type of build-up gets to a stage where you have to assume that the intention is no longer to threaten force but to use it.
Watching the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent days, you are getting very close to that assumption.
France looking opening up the cultural/food sectors in Mid May.
Just like Le Royaume-Uni.
I'm not sure. He said terraces are opening in Mid May - i.e. what we are doing mid April. In mid May we will be allowed to sit inside.
Sounds like they are about a month behind, which makes sense with this extra month of lockdown
Looking at the history of the UK lockdown, however, are four weeks(-ish - the schools will be back in three) going to be enough? I know that they start with the advantage of being some distance into their vaccination project, but even in that regard France is only where the UK was - in terms of the proportion of the population to have been given a vaccine - at the end of January, and their upwards trajectory is much shallower.
Assuming that the unlocking sequence in England happens on schedule, it'll have been three full months from peak mortality to beer gardens. Assuming that the French epidemic follows the pattern of our January disaster, and peak mortality therefore comes about a fortnight into national lockdown, then they're proposing to make that transition in only one month. It doesn't seem realistic.
Their timetable is optimistic, but I reckon they might just do it because of the vaccines. They are getting a surge of jabs through April/May
Nonetheless it will be perilous. They are looking at a scary and inevitable surge of cases, hospitalisations and deaths for 3-4 weeks
Turkey is also a shitshow. 40,000 cases today, and they aren't doing much testing, and their vax drive is embryonic
How will a surge of jabs between April/May help though? Only those administered in the first week would have any effect on case numbers at the end of the proposed lockdown. Especially as the decision to extend has to be made a bit earlier.
It can really help with deaths. Two weeks after a jab you get some protection. If France can ramp up to 500,000 or more a day in the next fortnight, than 2-3 weeks time the deaths and hospitalisations will begin to fall, meaning they might just be able to keep to their deconfinement schedule.
It will be close tho, I readily confess that
Macron should have locked down a fortnight ago or more, and avoided this terrible danger
I think it will take a lot longer, unfortunately. If someone is going to die in 4 weeks time, they will contract it in 2 weeks time. That's before the protection kicks in unfortunately.
But they won't get it in 2 weeks time. This is a strict lockdown and we know lockdowns are highly effective. Few people will catch it in 2 weeks time. The problem is the ones that have caught it recently and will catch it between now and Saturday.
If France is getting 40k cases daily now, that could rise to 60-70k cases in 2-3 weeks before it comes down fast (which it will).
That implies a death rate of nearly 1k a day at the worst, then quickly falling away.
It won't be as bad as our January, but it will be pretty bad.
My guesstimate is that they will have our January but spread over 2 months rather than one. UK January was an absolute bastard and I hope no other European country suffers anything quite like it.
On the headline topic, has the UK population become a set of f**king ninnies? Enough people will get the vaccine to create a high level of protection. We do not need to exclude those who do not or cannot.
Off-topic: Based on the concept that when a country sabre rattles it often increases troops on an opposing country's borders. After a point, the scale & type of build-up gets to a stage where you have to assume that the intention is no longer to threaten force but to use it.
Watching the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent days, you are getting very close to that assumption.
Its fair to say the US is worried.
If the Turks using drones play a significant role, as they did is Azerbaijan, Russia could end up with such a bloody nose that Putin just might be in trouble.
On the headline topic, has the UK population become a set of f**king ninnies? Enough people will get the vaccine to create a high level of protection. We do not need to exclude those who do not or cannot.
Off-topic: Based on the concept that when a country sabre rattles it often increases troops on an opposing country's borders. After a point, the scale & type of build-up gets to a stage where you have to assume that the intention is no longer to threaten force but to use it.
Watching the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent days, you are getting very close to that assumption.
Its fair to say the US is worried.
I was waiting to hear your view - not looking great is it
On the headline topic, has the UK population become a set of f**king ninnies? Enough people will get the vaccine to create a high level of protection. We do not need to exclude those who do not or cannot.
Off-topic: Based on the concept that when a country sabre rattles it often increases troops on an opposing country's borders. After a point, the scale & type of build-up gets to a stage where you have to assume that the intention is no longer to threaten force but to use it.
Watching the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent days, you are getting very close to that assumption.
Its fair to say the US is worried.
If the Turks using drones play a significant role, as they did is Azerbaijan, Russia could end up with such a bloody nose that Putin just might be in trouble.
Some of the first equipment Russia moved in was anti drone defences - we might get to see how well they work
Don't know if it's been mentioned downthread, but France is closing down schools. Sad for them, but likely to be the start of many contrasts between the UK and EU which will look good for the government
I hate to break it to you but schools in the UK are closing down for a couple of weeks as well; in fact I finish shielding tomorrow so will be back in school tomorrow before stopping at lunch until mid April.
France looking opening up the cultural/food sectors in Mid May.
Just like Le Royaume-Uni.
I'm not sure. He said terraces are opening in Mid May - i.e. what we are doing mid April. In mid May we will be allowed to sit inside.
Sounds like they are about a month behind, which makes sense with this extra month of lockdown
Looking at the history of the UK lockdown, however, are four weeks(-ish - the schools will be back in three) going to be enough? I know that they start with the advantage of being some distance into their vaccination project, but even in that regard France is only where the UK was - in terms of the proportion of the population to have been given a vaccine - at the end of January, and their upwards trajectory is much shallower.
Assuming that the unlocking sequence in England happens on schedule, it'll have been three full months from peak mortality to beer gardens. Assuming that the French epidemic follows the pattern of our January disaster, and peak mortality therefore comes about a fortnight into national lockdown, then they're proposing to make that transition in only one month. It doesn't seem realistic.
Their timetable is optimistic, but I reckon they might just do it because of the vaccines. They are getting a surge of jabs through April/May
Nonetheless it will be perilous. They are looking at a scary and inevitable surge of cases, hospitalisations and deaths for 3-4 weeks
All of the EU countries are further behind us than it looks based on the raw numbers because our single-dose strategy allowed us to reach more people faster.
As i've said before - they all seem to believe that immunity disappears if you don't get your second dose in accordance with the approved schedule. Whereas actually you have a high level of protection for one dose, and certainly sufficient in general if low level restrictions are still in place. They also don't seem to understand that vaccine supply is scaling up massively, and the strategy of holding back second doses will look very silly when there's a glut of availability (both as more come on stream, and countries like America (and yes, to a lesser extent the UK) complete their domestic programmes).
On the headline topic, has the UK population become a set of f**king ninnies? Enough people will get the vaccine to create a high level of protection. We do not need to exclude those who do not or cannot.
Off-topic: Based on the concept that when a country sabre rattles it often increases troops on an opposing country's borders. After a point, the scale & type of build-up gets to a stage where you have to assume that the intention is no longer to threaten force but to use it.
Watching the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent days, you are getting very close to that assumption.
Its fair to say the US is worried.
If the Turks using drones play a significant role, as they did is Azerbaijan, Russia could end up with such a bloody nose that Putin just might be in trouble.
Some of the first equipment Russia moved in was anti drone defences - we might get to see how well they work
Indeed. My money is on the drones to start with but it will be an interesting test.
On the headline topic, has the UK population become a set of f**king ninnies? Enough people will get the vaccine to create a high level of protection. We do not need to exclude those who do not or cannot.
Off-topic: Based on the concept that when a country sabre rattles it often increases troops on an opposing country's borders. After a point, the scale & type of build-up gets to a stage where you have to assume that the intention is no longer to threaten force but to use it.
Watching the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent days, you are getting very close to that assumption.
Its fair to say the US is worried.
If the Turks using drones play a significant role, as they did is Azerbaijan, Russia could end up with such a bloody nose that Putin just might be in trouble.
Who wants what here? Does Russia actually want to annex the Ukraine? Or does it just want its enemies to look feeble? And what does Turkey want? Presumably the west doesn't have a strategic interest in the Ukraine but doesn't want Russia to get the impression it can do what it wants.
Why has Israel's vax rate topped out at just 60%?!
Surely, 40% of Israelis are not antivaxxers? I know the fundy Jews are anti vax, but they are only 10-15% of the population
Have they run out of jabs? What is going on?
Kids, religious nutcases, anti-vaxxers. It all adds up.
Mainly kids, one would presume. According to the World Bank, 28% of the Israeli population is aged 0-14. The comparable figure for the UK is 18%, in line with the OECD average. The EU average is only 15%.
Thanks. That explains nearly all of it. Had no idea Israel was so young
I presume Israel can do 12 - 15 yr olds now though with the new data ?
Don’t forget however the teenage generation skews disproportionately to Muslim and Orthodox Jewish groups - where vaccine take up is already at best very low.
On the headline topic, has the UK population become a set of f**king ninnies? Enough people will get the vaccine to create a high level of protection. We do not need to exclude those who do not or cannot.
Off-topic: Based on the concept that when a country sabre rattles it often increases troops on an opposing country's borders. After a point, the scale & type of build-up gets to a stage where you have to assume that the intention is no longer to threaten force but to use it.
Watching the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent days, you are getting very close to that assumption.
Its fair to say the US is worried.
I was waiting to hear your view - not looking great is it
Would Russia actually be stupid enough to go for a full scale invasion of the Ukraine?
On the headline topic, has the UK population become a set of f**king ninnies? Enough people will get the vaccine to create a high level of protection. We do not need to exclude those who do not or cannot.
Off-topic: Based on the concept that when a country sabre rattles it often increases troops on an opposing country's borders. After a point, the scale & type of build-up gets to a stage where you have to assume that the intention is no longer to threaten force but to use it.
Watching the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent days, you are getting very close to that assumption.
Its fair to say the US is worried.
If the Turks using drones play a significant role, as they did is Azerbaijan, Russia could end up with such a bloody nose that Putin just might be in trouble.
Who wants what here? Does Russia actually want to annex the Ukraine? Or does it just want its enemies to look feeble? And what does Turkey want? Presumably the west doesn't have a strategic interest in the Ukraine but doesn't want Russia to get the impression it can do what it wants.
On the headline topic, has the UK population become a set of f**king ninnies? Enough people will get the vaccine to create a high level of protection. We do not need to exclude those who do not or cannot.
Off-topic: Based on the concept that when a country sabre rattles it often increases troops on an opposing country's borders. After a point, the scale & type of build-up gets to a stage where you have to assume that the intention is no longer to threaten force but to use it.
Watching the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent days, you are getting very close to that assumption.
Its fair to say the US is worried.
I was waiting to hear your view - not looking great is it
Would Russia actually be stupid enough to go for a full scale invasion of the Ukraine?
Don't know if it's been mentioned downthread, but France is closing down schools. Sad for them, but likely to be the start of many contrasts between the UK and EU which will look good for the government
I hate to break it to you but schools in the UK are closing down for a couple of weeks as well; in fact I finish shielding tomorrow so will be back in school tomorrow before stopping at lunch until mid April.
You stop at lunch? We have to go right through to 4pm!
On the headline topic, has the UK population become a set of f**king ninnies? Enough people will get the vaccine to create a high level of protection. We do not need to exclude those who do not or cannot.
Off-topic: Based on the concept that when a country sabre rattles it often increases troops on an opposing country's borders. After a point, the scale & type of build-up gets to a stage where you have to assume that the intention is no longer to threaten force but to use it.
Watching the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent days, you are getting very close to that assumption.
Its fair to say the US is worried.
If the Turks using drones play a significant role, as they did is Azerbaijan, Russia could end up with such a bloody nose that Putin just might be in trouble.
Some of the first equipment Russia moved in was anti drone defences - we might get to see how well they work
Indeed. My money is on the drones to start with but it will be an interesting test.
Russia has drones too. Let's hope this is not their shop window.
On the headline topic, has the UK population become a set of f**king ninnies? Enough people will get the vaccine to create a high level of protection. We do not need to exclude those who do not or cannot.
Off-topic: Based on the concept that when a country sabre rattles it often increases troops on an opposing country's borders. After a point, the scale & type of build-up gets to a stage where you have to assume that the intention is no longer to threaten force but to use it.
Watching the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent days, you are getting very close to that assumption.
Its fair to say the US is worried.
I was waiting to hear your view - not looking great is it
Would Russia actually be stupid enough to go for a full scale invasion of the Ukraine?
On the headline topic, has the UK population become a set of f**king ninnies? Enough people will get the vaccine to create a high level of protection. We do not need to exclude those who do not or cannot.
Off-topic: Based on the concept that when a country sabre rattles it often increases troops on an opposing country's borders. After a point, the scale & type of build-up gets to a stage where you have to assume that the intention is no longer to threaten force but to use it.
Watching the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent days, you are getting very close to that assumption.
Its fair to say the US is worried.
I was waiting to hear your view - not looking great is it
Would Russia actually be stupid enough to go for a full scale invasion of the Ukraine?
On the headline topic, has the UK population become a set of f**king ninnies? Enough people will get the vaccine to create a high level of protection. We do not need to exclude those who do not or cannot.
Off-topic: Based on the concept that when a country sabre rattles it often increases troops on an opposing country's borders. After a point, the scale & type of build-up gets to a stage where you have to assume that the intention is no longer to threaten force but to use it.
Watching the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent days, you are getting very close to that assumption.
Its fair to say the US is worried.
I was waiting to hear your view - not looking great is it
Would Russia actually be stupid enough to go for a full scale invasion of the Ukraine?
What would they gain from it?
Ukraine turned off the fresh water supply to Crimea after the annexation which is causing big problems for Russia. They might be trying to repeat what seemed to be the original plan at the time of annexing the Donbass and Black Sea territory of Ukraine.
Watching Macron there was an awful lot of justifying what had happened before and saying he would do the same again. Completely unable to admit having made any mistakes. I'm not surprised but the sheer cheek is mind blowing.
Don't know if it's been mentioned downthread, but France is closing down schools. Sad for them, but likely to be the start of many contrasts between the UK and EU which will look good for the government
I hate to break it to you but schools in the UK are closing down for a couple of weeks as well; in fact I finish shielding tomorrow so will be back in school tomorrow before stopping at lunch until mid April.
You stop at lunch? We have to go right through to 4pm!
We normally stop early on the last day of term. As we have "activities" on a Thursday afternoon it won't make a huge amount of difference educationally this time.
On the headline topic, has the UK population become a set of f**king ninnies? Enough people will get the vaccine to create a high level of protection. We do not need to exclude those who do not or cannot.
Off-topic: Based on the concept that when a country sabre rattles it often increases troops on an opposing country's borders. After a point, the scale & type of build-up gets to a stage where you have to assume that the intention is no longer to threaten force but to use it.
Watching the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent days, you are getting very close to that assumption.
Its fair to say the US is worried.
If the Turks using drones play a significant role, as they did is Azerbaijan, Russia could end up with such a bloody nose that Putin just might be in trouble.
Who wants what here? Does Russia actually want to annex the Ukraine? Or does it just want its enemies to look feeble? And what does Turkey want? Presumably the west doesn't have a strategic interest in the Ukraine but doesn't want Russia to get the impression it can do what it wants.
Putin needs to play the hard man for domestic purposes. Azerbaijan was a tad embarrassing in that respect. The EU doesn't want an unstable Ukraine on its doorstep but no one gives a monkey what the EU wants. Turkey seems pissed off with the way Russia is treating some Turkish minorities in the Stans and seems absolutely up for the fight. Who the hell cares what Ukrainians want? Its irrelevant.
On the headline topic, has the UK population become a set of f**king ninnies? Enough people will get the vaccine to create a high level of protection. We do not need to exclude those who do not or cannot.
Off-topic: Based on the concept that when a country sabre rattles it often increases troops on an opposing country's borders. After a point, the scale & type of build-up gets to a stage where you have to assume that the intention is no longer to threaten force but to use it.
Watching the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent days, you are getting very close to that assumption.
Its fair to say the US is worried.
I was waiting to hear your view - not looking great is it
Would Russia actually be stupid enough to go for a full scale invasion of the Ukraine?
What would they gain from it?
Ukraine?
Ukraine is not sufficiently valuable to Russia to warrant violent annexation. It is not 1922 any more. The opportunity cost in terms of damaged relationships with the west, the need to police a large and restless country and the fact it is going to need massive investment to recover from years of Russian inspired war, as against some rather transient military glory, would be formidable.
If they go ahead, it might be a sign there is a power struggle in the Kremlin. But even so, it would be daft.
Sky News: "Paris's new vaccination centre will open next week and do 1,500 jabs a day."
That isn't very many....
So there are two possibilities.
One is that something in the story has got lost in translation. It's for a smallish part of the city, or it's not 1,500 jabs a day.
The other is that the French government is really talking about doing 1,500 jabs a day in Paris. When we know that they are doing several hundred thousand a day nationwide, with a substantial increase firmly pencilled in for the week after Easter. (We do all know that, don't we?)
But up onto the leg of the story the usual suspects in the professional and social media mount...
(No, they're not doing well. But, as when A Level Physics students calculate the mass of a car as 17 ounces, Please try applying some common sense.)
It a report on France24 and this "mega" centre is the Stade de France...so no mis-translation and its not from some tiny community centre in a back water. 10,000 a week is the aim.
The Louisa Jordan mass vaccination centre in Glasgow has the capacity to do to 10,000 per day.....
Serious question: What is GB News's value proposition? Is their main selling point being an "anti-woke" channel?
Just as there's a market for print journalism beyond the Guardian and Independent, it's assumed there's a market for broadcast journalism alims beyond the BBC and Sky.
Don't know if it's been mentioned downthread, but France is closing down schools. Sad for them, but likely to be the start of many contrasts between the UK and EU which will look good for the government
I hate to break it to you but schools in the UK are closing down for a couple of weeks as well; in fact I finish shielding tomorrow so will be back in school tomorrow before stopping at lunch until mid April.
Serious question: What is GB News's value proposition? Is their main selling point being an "anti-woke" channel?
Just as there's a market for print journalism beyond the Guardian and Independent, it's assumed there's a market for broadcast journalism alims beyond the BBC and Sky.
We'll see.
I don't watch BBC News or Sky News so I guess I wont be watching GB News either.
Don't know if it's been mentioned downthread, but France is closing down schools. Sad for them, but likely to be the start of many contrasts between the UK and EU which will look good for the government
I hate to break it to you but schools in the UK are closing down for a couple of weeks as well; in fact I finish shielding tomorrow so will be back in school tomorrow before stopping at lunch until mid April.
Watching Macron there was an awful lot of justifying what had happened before and saying he would do the same again. Completely unable to admit having made any mistakes. I'm not surprised but the sheer cheek is mind blowing.
Don't know if it's been mentioned downthread, but France is closing down schools. Sad for them, but likely to be the start of many contrasts between the UK and EU which will look good for the government
I hate to break it to you but schools in the UK are closing down for a couple of weeks as well; in fact I finish shielding tomorrow so will be back in school tomorrow before stopping at lunch until mid April.
Are you still in school? Ours shut last Friday.
I think most local authorities shut tomorrow. I know Lancashire was earlier. Any other examples?
Don't know if it's been mentioned downthread, but France is closing down schools. Sad for them, but likely to be the start of many contrasts between the UK and EU which will look good for the government
I hate to break it to you but schools in the UK are closing down for a couple of weeks as well; in fact I finish shielding tomorrow so will be back in school tomorrow before stopping at lunch until mid April.
You stop at lunch? We have to go right through to 4pm!
Quite right too you slacker. I’m mean working from home means you’ve been having lots of time off anyway. Bout time you did some actual work...
On the headline topic, has the UK population become a set of f**king ninnies? Enough people will get the vaccine to create a high level of protection. We do not need to exclude those who do not or cannot.
Off-topic: Based on the concept that when a country sabre rattles it often increases troops on an opposing country's borders. After a point, the scale & type of build-up gets to a stage where you have to assume that the intention is no longer to threaten force but to use it.
Watching the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent days, you are getting very close to that assumption.
Its fair to say the US is worried.
If the Turks using drones play a significant role, as they did is Azerbaijan, Russia could end up with such a bloody nose that Putin just might be in trouble.
Who wants what here? Does Russia actually want to annex the Ukraine? Or does it just want its enemies to look feeble? And what does Turkey want? Presumably the west doesn't have a strategic interest in the Ukraine but doesn't want Russia to get the impression it can do what it wants.
Putin needs to play the hard man for domestic purposes. Azerbaijan was a tad embarrassing in that respect. The EU doesn't want an unstable Ukraine on its doorstep but no one gives a monkey what the EU wants. Turkey seems pissed off with the way Russia is treating some Turkish minorities in the Stans and seems absolutely up for the fight. Who the hell cares what Ukrainians want? Its irrelevant.
America shipped in military equipment via Odessa a little while back
Don't know if it's been mentioned downthread, but France is closing down schools. Sad for them, but likely to be the start of many contrasts between the UK and EU which will look good for the government
I hate to break it to you but schools in the UK are closing down for a couple of weeks as well; in fact I finish shielding tomorrow so will be back in school tomorrow before stopping at lunch until mid April.
You stop at lunch? We have to go right through to 4pm!
Quite right too you slacker. I’m mean working from home means you’ve been having lots of time off anyway. Bout time you did some actual work...
Says somebody whose industry is still working from home...
Comments
Very quick reckoner, single person with two children £500 a month rent.
Universal credit £1,427 made up of
standard allowance £409
Child element £517
Housing cost £500
Plus child benefit.
Child benefit £140
=£1567.
UC also allows an earning ceiling as well. UC has its flaws but it is a much better system than what it replaced.
Nonetheless it will be perilous. They are looking at a scary and inevitable surge of cases, hospitalisations and deaths for 3-4 weeks
Turkey is also a shitshow. 40,000 cases today, and they aren't doing much testing, and their vax drive is embryonic
It will be close tho, I readily confess that
Macron should have locked down a fortnight ago or more, and avoided this terrible danger
Boy, we as a species must have done some bad shit.
One is that something in the story has got lost in translation. It's for a smallish part of the city, or it's not 1,500 jabs a day.
The other is that the French government is really talking about doing 1,500 jabs a day in Paris. When we know that they are doing several hundred thousand a day nationwide, with a substantial increase firmly pencilled in for the week after Easter. (We do all know that, don't we?)
But up onto the leg of the story the usual suspects in the professional and social media mount...
(No, they're not doing well. But, as when A Level Physics students calculate the mass of a car as 17 ounces, Please try applying some common sense.)
Surely, 40% of Israelis are not antivaxxers? I know the fundy Jews are anti vax, but they are only 10-15% of the population
Have they run out of jabs? What is going on?
But Germany really needs a hard lockdown asap.
Sounds horrible when I put it that way, but having been to Israel...
Indeed it seems accepted by commentators today that he was very good
If France is getting 40k cases daily now, that could rise to 60-70k cases in 2-3 weeks before it comes down fast (which it will).
That implies a death rate of nearly 1k a day at the worst, then quickly falling away.
It won't be as bad as our January, but it will be pretty bad.
Off-topic: Based on the concept that when a country sabre rattles it often increases troops on an opposing country's borders. After a point, the scale & type of build-up gets to a stage where you have to assume that the intention is no longer to threaten force but to use it.
Watching the Russian-Ukrainian border in recent days, you are getting very close to that assumption.
Its fair to say the US is worried.
https://twitter.com/ChinaEmbIreland/status/1377302554489544710
https://twitter.com/SeanBurkeShow/status/1376583811367112710?s=20
It is time Sky and BBC had real competition
Does it come with flag trigger alerts
What would they gain from it?
If they go ahead, it might be a sign there is a power struggle in the Kremlin. But even so, it would be daft.
Something you just don't get on Sky or the BBC.
The Louisa Jordan mass vaccination centre in Glasgow has the capacity to do to 10,000 per day.....
https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lseih/2020/07/01/there-is-no-ukraine-fact-checking-the-kremlins-version-of-ukrainian-history/
Ours shut last Friday.
I don't watch BBC News or Sky News so I guess I wont be watching GB News either.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=non+jene+regrette+rien&view=detail&mid=4DB893439FFAD729AD374DB893439FFAD729AD37&FORM=VIRE0&ru=/search?q=non+jene+regrette+rien&cvid=83bb3734788046c7a8ef79e8cb17cd6d&aqs=edge.2.69i57j0l6.15242j0j1&pglt=803&FORM=ANNTA1&PC=DCTS