I thought Germany already had gone to 12 weeks for AZ and 6 for Pfizer? Canada has gone to 4 months. Both when they are not suspending their programmes on flimsy evidence though.
That's facts, and facts are boring. Like the actual delivery and usage stats.
Much more fun to swallow Putinesque trolling hook, line and sinker. Especially if it confirms your pre-existing belief that Johnson-style Brexit was a good idea.
(To save time: yes, UK vaccination has gone extremely well, EU vaccination has gone mediocrely at best and many statements by Commission and National politicians are undignified to the point of bizarreness. But that doesn't mean that the issue should be treated in the same way that Dilyn the Dog was alleged to treat the leg of the PM's former Chief Adviser. Which some people are.)
Rare that this is the case, but I think if you backed the two outsiders here, even paying the 5% over round, you’re on a good thing. Basically 4/6 Sir Keir is still leader in 2024
Yes, that should be MUCH shorter. He's leading Labour into the GE. If he is likely not to, those 3/1 odds of yours are a rip off and our bet is off the back of a lorry rather than pristine and pukka.
I thought Germany already had gone to 12 weeks for AZ and 6 for Pfizer? Canada has gone to 4 months. Both when they are not suspending their programmes on flimsy evidence though.
That's facts, and facts are boring. Like the actual delivery and usage stats.
Much more fun to swallow Putinesque trolling hook, line and sinker. Especially if it confirms your pre-existing belief that Johnson-style Brexit was a good idea.
(To save time: yes, UK vaccination has gone extremely well, EU vaccination has gone mediocrely at best and many statements by Commission and National politicians are undignified to the point of bizarreness. But that doesn't mean that the issue should be treated in the same way that Dilyn the Dog was alleged to treat the leg of the PM's former Chief Adviser. Which some people are.)
Well they shouldn't have "gone to 12 weeks" for AZ, since those were the original recommendation. As for Pfizer, does going from 4->6 weeks actually buy you that much?
Apologies if these points have already been made, but it should be remembered that this polling has been done at a time when none of these activities are legal. So it’s hardly surprising that there is support for vaccination passports as a lot of people will be thinking “well if that’s what it takes to get a pint in my local...”
Also, no time constraints are in the question. How many people support this indefinitely? And what about future vaccines against new variants? Will we be constantly in and out of lockdown until we get the latest vaccine? Seems unrealistic to me.
I thought Germany already had gone to 12 weeks for AZ and 6 for Pfizer? Canada has gone to 4 months. Both when they are not suspending their programmes on flimsy evidence though.
That's facts, and facts are boring. Like the actual delivery and usage stats.
Much more fun to swallow Putinesque trolling hook, line and sinker. Especially if it confirms your pre-existing belief that Johnson-style Brexit was a good idea.
(To save time: yes, UK vaccination has gone extremely well, EU vaccination has gone mediocrely at best and many statements by Commission and National politicians are undignified to the point of bizarreness. But that doesn't mean that the issue should be treated in the same way that Dilyn the Dog was alleged to treat the leg of the PM's former Chief Adviser. Which some people are.)
The facts are not as simple as you make out though. Yes Germany has extended the gap between doses, it hasn't got the same utilisation of vaccines that we have though becuase they still set aside 50% of all doses on delivery. The gain of our policy is the extended gap coupled with just in time delivery of vaccines. They're doing the first one but not the second one. It's a bit pointless.
Very sad. I have always known I was out of tune with the majority of the public on a lot of issues but I never thought they were quite this blind to the inherent dangers of such systems.
"“Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.”
What's the danger of having a a bit of paper showing you've had a jab?
I really don't get what on earth people are worried about here. Youngsters need a card to get into a pub already. Oldies have bus passes. Anyone who has travelled to some countries needs a Yellow Fever certificate. What on earth is the problem of having a certificate showing you're not a danger entering a non-socially-distanced event today? No-one is being forced to have a jab, no-one will be forced to have a certificate, and - most crucially of all - no-one will be denied entry to somewhere where they might have gone anyway, since without the vaccine passports these places would be shut completely, by law or because they are not viable with social distancing.
It's not the bit of paper. It's that the government have got the same geniuses that built the terrible NHS App doing it. It is population tracking with checking into venues and the state knowing everything you do.
Also - what does Richard do when he loses his "bit of paper" and has to wait days to get a new one, unable to do anything in the mean time?
The problem is that he appears to have bought hook, line and sinker the idea that it's "vaccine passports and all social activities allowed" or "no vaccine passports and large numbers of social activities not allowed". There isn't a scientific basis for this - just Government decree.
Officially Government policy is pretty much - everything open from 21st June. This was the policy before things like (domestic) vaccine passports were being loudly talked about. The policy hasn't changed. And yet they continue to push an undercurrent of "vaccine passports are necessary to open up". There's a fundamental inconsistency and nobody is calling them out on it (albeit some people are believing the line that everything will be a voluntary scheme for businesses with no input from Govt).
Rare that this is the case, but I think if you backed the two outsiders here, even paying the 5% over round, you’re on a good thing. Basically 4/6 Sir Keir is still leader in 2024
Good spot!
Smarkets won’t let me bet with them, but I think their Even money quote on Starmer leaving before 2024 is quite the ricket.
Have Labour ever got rid of a leader before he got a pop at a GE? Starmer won the leadership by a street, and his followers love him even though the public don’t. What would it take for him to leave early? Can’t be a 50% chance
I would say the following.
Ill health. Doesn't look unwell to me, but you never know, obviously. 2-3%.
A major scandal. Again, never can tell, but he's a former DPP who worked under Cameron and May. If there was owt there it would be out there. No reason for him to start being a naughty boy now. 2-3%.
A successful leadership challenge. As you say, Labour just doesn't knife leaders. And, even if it did, who the heck is there to win it? 10% at most.
The biggie is early election defeat. But the new boundaries kick in in 2023, making that less likely. And a big majority. Why needlessly risk that? See TMay. I reckon about 20 %.
Add in another 5% for black swan event.
40% chance is being somewhat generous.
Yeah I would say it is more like a 20% chance, so 4/6 about a 1/4 shot by combining the 3/1 2024 and 15/8 2025 or later is a nice (hypothetical) bet
If there is anyone on here confident of Smarkets prices to the point they will lay them, I will back 4/5 Starmer is still Lab Leader on Jan 1st 2024
Or to put it another way, I will lay 5/4 he is gone by that date
Rare that this is the case, but I think if you backed the two outsiders here, even paying the 5% over round, you’re on a good thing. Basically 4/6 Sir Keir is still leader in 2024
Yes, that should be MUCH shorter. He's leading Labour into the GE. If he is likely not to, those 3/1 odds of yours are a rip off and our bet is off the back of a lorry rather than pristine and pukka.
I barely bothered to factor the chance of him being replaced before a GE in, now Smarkets are telling us its a coin toss!!
Rare that this is the case, but I think if you backed the two outsiders here, even paying the 5% over round, you’re on a good thing. Basically 4/6 Sir Keir is still leader in 2024
Yes, that should be MUCH shorter. He's leading Labour into the GE. If he is likely not to, those 3/1 odds of yours are a rip off and our bet is off the back of a lorry rather than pristine and pukka.
I barely bothered to factor the chance of him being replaced before a GE in, now Smarkets are telling us its a coin toss!!
It's a nonsense imo. Lock that in with another poster and with our bet you have a win vs flat.
I will accept that you didn't know those Starmer exit prices beforehand.
Evening all (seems odd saying that while it's still light out)
As I've frequently said, make people scared enough and they'll voluntarily give away any freedom, liberty or right for a promise of safety and security if not even for themselves than for their families.
Conversely, provide a big enough crisis or challenge and a Government will abandon any and every principle in response.
I've likened the pandemic to a terrorist attack and in many ways the response of public and Government to coronavirus has been analogous to the response to a terrorist outrage. At times of crisis, we rely on and look to Government (or "the State") to inform and protect us. We hang on almost daily "briefings" from Ministers and scientists to tell us what's happening, what to do, what not to do etc.
We demand of the Government "answers". Government must do "something" to make us feel safe and secure again, to make our lives normal again. Oddly enough, some of those most vocal in demanding Government respond to terror outrages are among those protesting the Government's response to coronavirus. There seems some forms of terror to which a response is required and others where it is not - curious.
Huge queue outside London vaccination centre after council offers walk-in jabs
More than 2,000 people turned out at a vaccination centre in Walthamstow, northeast London, after a call was put out to use up spare doses of the AstraZeneca jab.
Those over the age of 50 or adults with health conditions were encouraged to walk into the centre to get a first jab - but it turned out there was more than enough demand.
People had to be asked to stop arriving after a massive queue formed. "
One or two interesting snippets from European polling today.
The latest Forsa poll in Germany has only minor changes with both the CDU/CSU and Greens up a point so it's 27-23. SPD 15%, AfD 11%, FDP 10% and Linke 7% soall well within margin of error.
In Poland, the political landscape has been rocked by he emergence of PL2050, a new grouping which has torn chunks out of the vote of the other main parties. They are a pro-EU grouping seeking to build a new Franco-German-Polish axis to be at the centre of the Union. In the latest poll, PL2050 has 27%, behind the governing PiS on 30% with the KO opposition bloc on 18%.
We'll do a full talk on Latvian politics another day - meanwhile, in Greece, signs of a small come back for Syriza but New Democracy retains a healthy 41-28 lead.
Rare that this is the case, but I think if you backed the two outsiders here, even paying the 5% over round, you’re on a good thing. Basically 4/6 Sir Keir is still leader in 2024
Yes, that should be MUCH shorter. He's leading Labour into the GE. If he is likely not to, those 3/1 odds of yours are a rip off and our bet is off the back of a lorry rather than pristine and pukka.
I barely bothered to factor the chance of him being replaced before a GE in, now Smarkets are telling us its a coin toss!!
It's a nonsense imo. Lock that in with another poster and with our bet you have a win vs flat.
I will accept that you didn't know those Starmer exit prices beforehand.
Thousands wouldn't. ☺
Ha I wouldn't try and have you over.
I have given you better odds than the market says they should be - I think it is a 5/2 shot off Betfair related markets, but, factoring I think the Con Maj price is wrong, and Sir Keir is a lot worse than people think, happy to lay you 3/1, cheers!
One or two interesting snippets from European polling today.
The latest Forsa poll in Germany has only minor changes with both the CDU/CSU and Greens up a point so it's 27-23. SPD 15%, AfD 11%, FDP 10% and Linke 7% soall well within margin of error.
In Poland, the political landscape has been rocked by he emergence of PL2050, a new grouping which has torn chunks out of the vote of the other main parties. They are a pro-EU grouping seeking to build a new Franco-German-Polish axis to be at the centre of the Union. In the latest poll, PL2050 has 27%, behind the governing PiS on 30% with the KO opposition bloc on 18%.
We'll do a full talk on Latvian politics another day - meanwhile, in Greece, signs of a small come back for Syriza but New Democracy retains a healthy 41-28 lead.
That's what Remain should have done. Instead of whinged and whined about the damage leave would do, they should have made the case for a positive vision where the UK took more of a leadership role in the future to shape the EU as we wanted it.
I thought Germany already had gone to 12 weeks for AZ and 6 for Pfizer? Canada has gone to 4 months. Both when they are not suspending their programmes on flimsy evidence though.
That's facts, and facts are boring. Like the actual delivery and usage stats.
Much more fun to swallow Putinesque trolling hook, line and sinker. Especially if it confirms your pre-existing belief that Johnson-style Brexit was a good idea.
(To save time: yes, UK vaccination has gone extremely well, EU vaccination has gone mediocrely at best and many statements by Commission and National politicians are undignified to the point of bizarreness. But that doesn't mean that the issue should be treated in the same way that Dilyn the Dog was alleged to treat the leg of the PM's former Chief Adviser. Which some people are.)
There! Was that so hard?
BTW in Spain you only get AZT if you are under 65 or if you are an over 65 essential worker!! And like all the other idiot countries they're holding millions of second doses while only just about done with the over 85 cohorts. And they've just passed a law which says you have to wear a mask at the beach!
Lots of people love wild swimming and enjoy articles and books about wild swimming. I own several. That the Guardian shouldn't publish features on wild swimming because a few nesh PBers don't like wild swimming is the epitome of an 'Only On PB' moment.
Lots of people love wild swimming and enjoy articles and books about wild swimming. I own several. That the Guardian shouldn't publish features on wild swimming because a few nesh PBers don't like wild swimming is the epitome of an 'Only On PB' moment.
I expect busy superspreading Thursdays and Fridays.....
We saw exactly this in the Channel Islands - lockdown II - Guernsey "effective immediately", Jersey "in two days time". Guernsey came under control a lot faster....
I have seen many videos now of Russian military equipment being deployed to Crimea and border of Ukraine
4 Ukrainian servicemen (one a LT Colonel) were killed in last few days
Provoking a conflict to try and stop the pipeline?
Well, who's doing the provoking? At any rate, places Merkel in an "interesting" spot.
I have no idea. We have the Americans reporting on something and raising their alert level accordingly, but we have no indication that levels of Russian hardware in the area are at appreciably higher levels than they would normally be - which as it's the Ukraine border, I would suspect would be high. I don't see that it's in Russia's interests to mount an invasion of Ukraine when Nordstream 2 is progressing - I do see that it's in America's interests for both sides to go into crisis mode. I don't think there's much they won't do to try to stop the pipeline happening.
Lots of people love wild swimming and enjoy articles and books about wild swimming. I own several. That the Guardian shouldn't publish features on wild swimming because a few nesh PBers don't like wild swimming is the epitome of an 'Only On PB' moment.
People have strong opinions on "wild swimming"?
It is a very comic phrase to those of us who for over 60 years have called it just 'swimming'.
I thought Germany already had gone to 12 weeks for AZ and 6 for Pfizer? Canada has gone to 4 months. Both when they are not suspending their programmes on flimsy evidence though.
That's facts, and facts are boring. Like the actual delivery and usage stats.
Much more fun to swallow Putinesque trolling hook, line and sinker. Especially if it confirms your pre-existing belief that Johnson-style Brexit was a good idea.
(To save time: yes, UK vaccination has gone extremely well, EU vaccination has gone mediocrely at best and many statements by Commission and National politicians are undignified to the point of bizarreness. But that doesn't mean that the issue should be treated in the same way that Dilyn the Dog was alleged to treat the leg of the PM's former Chief Adviser. Which some people are.)
The facts are not as simple as you make out though. Yes Germany has extended the gap between doses, it hasn't got the same utilisation of vaccines that we have though becuase they still set aside 50% of all doses on delivery. The gain of our policy is the extended gap coupled with just in time delivery of vaccines. They're doing the first one but not the second one. It's a bit pointless.
Sure. Germany, in particular, are being unwisely pedantic about the rules on the label. I've worked for a German boss and had German colleagues- that shouldn't surprise anyone. Though it was in Vienna that I was told off for crossing an empty road when the traffic light man was red.
But there's a massive space between that, and (for example) the idea that Europeans are set to be sucking off Putin for vaccine doses because they have left 400 million AZ doses sitting on the shelf.
As an example of a more outlandish pair of claims.
Lots of people love wild swimming and enjoy articles and books about wild swimming. I own several. That the Guardian shouldn't publish features on wild swimming because a few nesh PBers don't like wild swimming is the epitome of an 'Only On PB' moment.
France looking opening up the cultural/food sectors in Mid May.
Just like Le Royaume-Uni.
Lol, as if that's going to happen. I mean the scientists here said that we could have a two week lockdown in October and everything would have been fine. The politicians just need a way to sell it today and then like here the goal posts will be moved.
Lots of people love wild swimming and enjoy articles and books about wild swimming. I own several. That the Guardian shouldn't publish features on wild swimming because a few nesh PBers don't like wild swimming is the epitome of an 'Only On PB' moment.
People have strong opinions on "wild swimming"?
Never heard of wild swimming before. What's the difference between wild swimming and — just swimming?
My best wild swimming experience was in the midst of Heatwave Diablo in Tuscany. Found an azure inland pool fed by a mountain (thanks to GPS coordinates in my Wild Swimming Italy book). It felt like the last remaining open water in the region. Searingly hot for weeks, yet enough left to swim. Amazing. And free.
As a great libertarian I find this disappointing but yet not unsurprising.
This is like how Britons support the toughest sentences and punishments for offenders, and throw away the key for good measure, but go all gooey when they have personal experience of the criminal justice system.
Same with the benefits system.
Covid-19 really has shaken that up.
The massive support for the benefits cap seems a long time ago.
Id expect there is still wide support for a benefits cap (depending on the exact amount), the recent concerns wider society have noticed are more to do with the benefits floor and speed and ease of access to a safety net than the cap.
My friend works for a Job Centre Plus, her most common exchange with 'customers' in this last year?
New benefit recipient: I've just been paid my first Universal Credit payment, it is only £400 for the month, I thought it was £400 a week, how am I meant to live on £400 a month?
It's a weirdness of the system that the benefits cap is generally £20k, which, untaxed, is a lot, but that lots of people seem to receive derisory sums (400 pm being under £5k). There are three mysteries: Is this all true? Why does one never get to know the full package and value thereof someone gets (eg if your rent in paid, your council tax is paid etc this adds thousands of value)? And why is it so mystifyingly complicated to work out any particular case?
I thought Germany already had gone to 12 weeks for AZ and 6 for Pfizer? Canada has gone to 4 months. Both when they are not suspending their programmes on flimsy evidence though.
That's facts, and facts are boring. Like the actual delivery and usage stats.
Much more fun to swallow Putinesque trolling hook, line and sinker. Especially if it confirms your pre-existing belief that Johnson-style Brexit was a good idea.
(To save time: yes, UK vaccination has gone extremely well, EU vaccination has gone mediocrely at best and many statements by Commission and National politicians are undignified to the point of bizarreness. But that doesn't mean that the issue should be treated in the same way that Dilyn the Dog was alleged to treat the leg of the PM's former Chief Adviser. Which some people are.)
The facts are not as simple as you make out though. Yes Germany has extended the gap between doses, it hasn't got the same utilisation of vaccines that we have though becuase they still set aside 50% of all doses on delivery. The gain of our policy is the extended gap coupled with just in time delivery of vaccines. They're doing the first one but not the second one. It's a bit pointless.
Sure. Germany, in particular, are being unwisely pedantic about the rules on the label. I've worked for a German boss and had German colleagues- that shouldn't surprise anyone. Though it was in Vienna that I was told off for crossing an empty road when the traffic light man was red.
But there's a massive space between that, and (for example) the idea that Europeans are set to be sucking off Putin for vaccine doses because they have left 400 million AZ doses sitting on the shelf.
As an example of a more outlandish pair of claims.
I don't think anyone has claimed either of those things. What is true is that they do have unused stockpiles, and they have reached out to Russia to buy Sputnik.
Jesus Sky News saying he is lying about all vaccination centres will be open 7 days a week, they saying they have been to some and asked and they said no will only ever be 6 days a week.
Jesus Sky News saying he is lying about all vaccination centres will be open 7 days a week, they saying they have been to some and asked and they said no will only ever be 6 days a week.
Well they are open twice on Mondays; morning and afternoon.
Lots of people love wild swimming and enjoy articles and books about wild swimming. I own several. That the Guardian shouldn't publish features on wild swimming because a few nesh PBers don't like wild swimming is the epitome of an 'Only On PB' moment.
Grumpy old men.
The last time I wild swum was Lake Windermere in very early spring.
Watching Macron there was an awful lot of justifying what had happened before and saying he would do the same again. Completely unable to admit having made any mistakes. I'm not surprised but the sheer cheek is mind blowing.
Lots of people love wild swimming and enjoy articles and books about wild swimming. I own several. That the Guardian shouldn't publish features on wild swimming because a few nesh PBers don't like wild swimming is the epitome of an 'Only On PB' moment.
People have strong opinions on "wild swimming"?
Never heard of wild swimming before. What's the difference between wild swimming and — just swimming?
Wild swimming is done in the middle of winter in the middle of nowhere, for example, the well named Loch Frisa on Mull, and it clears the mind. And turns you blue. You soon notice the difference between it and a fortnight in Magaluf. One is supposed to be spiritually more uplifting but I can't recall which.
I thought Germany already had gone to 12 weeks for AZ and 6 for Pfizer? Canada has gone to 4 months. Both when they are not suspending their programmes on flimsy evidence though.
That's facts, and facts are boring. Like the actual delivery and usage stats.
Much more fun to swallow Putinesque trolling hook, line and sinker. Especially if it confirms your pre-existing belief that Johnson-style Brexit was a good idea.
(To save time: yes, UK vaccination has gone extremely well, EU vaccination has gone mediocrely at best and many statements by Commission and National politicians are undignified to the point of bizarreness. But that doesn't mean that the issue should be treated in the same way that Dilyn the Dog was alleged to treat the leg of the PM's former Chief Adviser. Which some people are.)
The facts are not as simple as you make out though. Yes Germany has extended the gap between doses, it hasn't got the same utilisation of vaccines that we have though becuase they still set aside 50% of all doses on delivery. The gain of our policy is the extended gap coupled with just in time delivery of vaccines. They're doing the first one but not the second one. It's a bit pointless.
Sure. Germany, in particular, are being unwisely pedantic about the rules on the label. I've worked for a German boss and had German colleagues- that shouldn't surprise anyone. Though it was in Vienna that I was told off for crossing an empty road when the traffic light man was red.
But there's a massive space between that, and (for example) the idea that Europeans are set to be sucking off Putin for vaccine doses because they have left 400 million AZ doses sitting on the shelf.
As an example of a more outlandish pair of claims.
I don't think anyone has claimed either of those things. What is true is that they do have unused stockpiles, and they have reached out to Russia to buy Sputnik.
Trust me, I chose those phrases very specifically- I've been around here too much today.
And, as far as I know, the main source for the claim that Europe has reached out to Russia is the Daily Mail reporting of the Kremlin readout of a phone call.
Given what we know about the delivery numbers, colour me unconvinced.
Macron's speech "laced with a little grain of self-aggrandisement". "Haven't I/we done really well". "Look at Britain giving us this troublesome variant".
Watching Macron there was an awful lot of justifying what had happened before and saying he would do the same again. Completely unable to admit having made any mistakes. I'm not surprised but the sheer cheek is mind blowing.
He did admit errors, he just didn't admit personal mistakes, eg calling AZ "quasi ineffective"
One or two interesting snippets from European polling today.
The latest Forsa poll in Germany has only minor changes with both the CDU/CSU and Greens up a point so it's 27-23. SPD 15%, AfD 11%, FDP 10% and Linke 7% soall well within margin of error.
In Poland, the political landscape has been rocked by he emergence of PL2050, a new grouping which has torn chunks out of the vote of the other main parties. They are a pro-EU grouping seeking to build a new Franco-German-Polish axis to be at the centre of the Union. In the latest poll, PL2050 has 27%, behind the governing PiS on 30% with the KO opposition bloc on 18%.
We'll do a full talk on Latvian politics another day - meanwhile, in Greece, signs of a small come back for Syriza but New Democracy retains a healthy 41-28 lead.
That's what Remain should have done. Instead of whinged and whined about the damage leave would do, they should have made the case for a positive vision where the UK took more of a leadership role in the future to shape the EU as we wanted it.
Alas, not to be.
My positive vison would have been the UK and the Northern European countries (i.e. the ones with a work ethic) ganging up on the Mediterranean countries.
I thought Germany already had gone to 12 weeks for AZ and 6 for Pfizer? Canada has gone to 4 months. Both when they are not suspending their programmes on flimsy evidence though.
That's facts, and facts are boring. Like the actual delivery and usage stats.
Much more fun to swallow Putinesque trolling hook, line and sinker. Especially if it confirms your pre-existing belief that Johnson-style Brexit was a good idea.
(To save time: yes, UK vaccination has gone extremely well, EU vaccination has gone mediocrely at best and many statements by Commission and National politicians are undignified to the point of bizarreness. But that doesn't mean that the issue should be treated in the same way that Dilyn the Dog was alleged to treat the leg of the PM's former Chief Adviser. Which some people are.)
The facts are not as simple as you make out though. Yes Germany has extended the gap between doses, it hasn't got the same utilisation of vaccines that we have though becuase they still set aside 50% of all doses on delivery. The gain of our policy is the extended gap coupled with just in time delivery of vaccines. They're doing the first one but not the second one. It's a bit pointless.
Sure. Germany, in particular, are being unwisely pedantic about the rules on the label. I've worked for a German boss and had German colleagues- that shouldn't surprise anyone. Though it was in Vienna that I was told off for crossing an empty road when the traffic light man was red.
But there's a massive space between that, and (for example) the idea that Europeans are set to be sucking off Putin for vaccine doses because they have left 400 million AZ doses sitting on the shelf.
As an example of a more outlandish pair of claims.
I don't think anyone has claimed either of those things. What is true is that they do have unused stockpiles, and they have reached out to Russia to buy Sputnik.
Trust me, I chose those phrases very specifically- I've been around here too much today.
And, as far as I know, the main source for the claim that Europe has reached out to Russia is the Daily Mail reporting of the Kremlin readout of a phone call.
Given what we know about the delivery numbers, colour me unconvinced.
My point is that the two claims are likely true. Not that there is anything wrong with asking for Sputnik. They (and perhaps we) should have done that earlier, especially now we know how effective it is.
France looking opening up the cultural/food sectors in Mid May.
Just like Le Royaume-Uni.
I'm not sure. He said terraces are opening in Mid May - i.e. what we are doing mid April. In mid May we will be allowed to sit inside.
Sounds like they are about a month behind, which makes sense with this extra month of lockdown
Looking at the history of the UK lockdown, however, are four weeks(-ish - the schools will be back in three) going to be enough? I know that they start with the advantage of being some distance into their vaccination project, but even in that regard France is only where the UK was - in terms of the proportion of the population to have been given a vaccine - at the end of January, and their upwards trajectory is much shallower.
Assuming that the unlocking sequence in England happens on schedule, it'll have been three full months from peak mortality to beer gardens. Assuming that the French epidemic follows the pattern of our January disaster, and peak mortality therefore comes about a fortnight into national lockdown, then they're proposing to make that transition in only one month. It doesn't seem realistic.
Comments
Much more fun to swallow Putinesque trolling hook, line and sinker. Especially if it confirms your pre-existing belief that Johnson-style Brexit was a good idea.
(To save time: yes, UK vaccination has gone extremely well, EU vaccination has gone mediocrely at best and many statements by Commission and National politicians are undignified to the point of bizarreness. But that doesn't mean that the issue should be treated in the same way that Dilyn the Dog was alleged to treat the leg of the PM's former Chief Adviser. Which some people are.)
Also, no time constraints are in the question. How many people support this indefinitely? And what about future vaccines against new variants? Will we be constantly in and out of lockdown until we get the latest vaccine? Seems unrealistic to me.
https://twitter.com/jaycee1001/status/1377217643955036161?s=20
The problem is that he appears to have bought hook, line and sinker the idea that it's "vaccine passports and all social activities allowed" or "no vaccine passports and large numbers of social activities not allowed". There isn't a scientific basis for this - just Government decree.
Officially Government policy is pretty much - everything open from 21st June. This was the policy before things like (domestic) vaccine passports were being loudly talked about. The policy hasn't changed. And yet they continue to push an undercurrent of "vaccine passports are necessary to open up". There's a fundamental inconsistency and nobody is calling them out on it (albeit some people are believing the line that everything will be a voluntary scheme for businesses with no input from Govt).
If there is anyone on here confident of Smarkets prices to the point they will lay them, I will back 4/5 Starmer is still Lab Leader on Jan 1st 2024
Or to put it another way, I will lay 5/4 he is gone by that date
@pong You have an SBK acc??
I will accept that you didn't know those Starmer exit prices beforehand.
Thousands wouldn't. ☺
As I've frequently said, make people scared enough and they'll voluntarily give away any freedom, liberty or right for a promise of safety and security if not even for themselves than for their families.
Conversely, provide a big enough crisis or challenge and a Government will abandon any and every principle in response.
I've likened the pandemic to a terrorist attack and in many ways the response of public and Government to coronavirus has been analogous to the response to a terrorist outrage. At times of crisis, we rely on and look to Government (or "the State") to inform and protect us. We hang on almost daily "briefings" from Ministers and scientists to tell us what's happening, what to do, what not to do etc.
We demand of the Government "answers". Government must do "something" to make us feel safe and secure again, to make our lives normal again. Oddly enough, some of those most vocal in demanding Government respond to terror outrages are among those protesting the Government's response to coronavirus. There seems some forms of terror to which a response is required and others where it is not - curious.
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210331-live-macron-addresses-france-as-covid-19-cases-resurge?ref=tw_i
Huge queue outside London vaccination centre after council offers walk-in jabs
More than 2,000 people turned out at a vaccination centre in Walthamstow, northeast London, after a call was put out to use up spare doses of the AstraZeneca jab.
Those over the age of 50 or adults with health conditions were encouraged to walk into the centre to get a first jab - but it turned out there was more than enough demand.
People had to be asked to stop arriving after a massive queue formed. "
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-news-live-latest-uk-coronavirus-updates-as-lockdown-is-eased-12259839
The latest Forsa poll in Germany has only minor changes with both the CDU/CSU and Greens up a point so it's 27-23. SPD 15%, AfD 11%, FDP 10% and Linke 7% soall well within margin of error.
In Poland, the political landscape has been rocked by he emergence of PL2050, a new grouping which has torn chunks out of the vote of the other main parties. They are a pro-EU grouping seeking to build a new Franco-German-Polish axis to be at the centre of the Union. In the latest poll, PL2050 has 27%, behind the governing PiS on 30% with the KO opposition bloc on 18%.
We'll do a full talk on Latvian politics another day - meanwhile, in Greece, signs of a small come back for Syriza but New Democracy retains a healthy 41-28 lead.
I have given you better odds than the market says they should be - I think it is a 5/2 shot off Betfair related markets, but, factoring I think the Con Maj price is wrong, and Sir Keir is a lot worse than people think, happy to lay you 3/1, cheers!
Alas, not to be.
If I also heard it right people can move around for Easter.
Edit - But only move for 10km.
BTW in Spain you only get AZT if you are under 65 or if you are an over 65 essential worker!! And like all the other idiot countries they're holding millions of second doses while only just about done with the over 85 cohorts. And they've just passed a law which says you have to wear a mask at the beach!
No country is immune.
Historians will not be kind.
We saw exactly this in the Channel Islands - lockdown II - Guernsey "effective immediately", Jersey "in two days time". Guernsey came under control a lot faster....
Just like Le Royaume-Uni.
But there's a massive space between that, and (for example) the idea that Europeans are set to be sucking off Putin for vaccine doses because they have left 400 million AZ doses sitting on the shelf.
As an example of a more outlandish pair of claims.
He's finished.
Sounds like they are about a month behind, which makes sense with this extra month of lockdown
China. Italy, Spain, America, Britain, Austria, all of them
There must be some logical reason. Give police time to organise? Let the truly desperate slip through, on compassionate grounds?
The last time I wild swum was Lake Windermere in very early spring.
Albeit some time ago :-) .
And, as far as I know, the main source for the claim that Europe has reached out to Russia is the Daily Mail reporting of the Kremlin readout of a phone call.
Given what we know about the delivery numbers, colour me unconvinced.
Macron's speech "laced with a little grain of self-aggrandisement". "Haven't I/we done really well". "Look at Britain giving us this troublesome variant".
Assuming that the unlocking sequence in England happens on schedule, it'll have been three full months from peak mortality to beer gardens. Assuming that the French epidemic follows the pattern of our January disaster, and peak mortality therefore comes about a fortnight into national lockdown, then they're proposing to make that transition in only one month. It doesn't seem realistic.