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The Scottish independence movement may have just gone all People’s Front of Judea v. Judean People’s

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Comments

  • MaffewMaffew Posts: 235
    kle4 said:

    I would have assumed that the level of vaccination in the EU would have been high enough to cover a lot of the very old (and therefore vulnerable) and so ensure their latest set of waves are not as bad as ours in January, but it will still clearly be pretty darn bad in several of them even as we get near the period where supplies are to improve.

    I'm sure I've seen charts showing a vaccine effect in over 80s for France. I suspect that different priorities in different countries will have had an impact though. For example, the countries refusing to give AZN to over 65s or I heard (not from a reliable source admittedly) that Italy has been giving vaccines to huge numbers of priority workers who are not in vulnerable groups.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    The bad thing is deaths are a lagging indicator. Cases are still rising so likely not at peak yet. Could be over a thousand a day soon.

    The vaccine should be cutting deaths, but then they've just been through a period of vaccine suspension and binning vaccines.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited March 2021
    My ex, a year and a half younger than me (I’m 47) and her husband (the bloke she dumped me for) both just informed the world via FB that they got vaccinated. Gits.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    The bad thing is deaths are a lagging indicator. Cases are still rising so likely not at peak yet. Could be over a thousand a day soon.

    The vaccine should be cutting deaths, but then they've just been through a period of vaccine suspension and binning vaccines.
    and since Macron has been rubbishing vaccines he has built up quite a large anti vaxxer constituency

    un trou de cul as one might say
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Maffew said:

    kle4 said:

    I would have assumed that the level of vaccination in the EU would have been high enough to cover a lot of the very old (and therefore vulnerable) and so ensure their latest set of waves are not as bad as ours in January, but it will still clearly be pretty darn bad in several of them even as we get near the period where supplies are to improve.

    I'm sure I've seen charts showing a vaccine effect in over 80s for France. I suspect that different priorities in different countries will have had an impact though. For example, the countries refusing to give AZN to over 65s or I heard (not from a reliable source admittedly) that Italy has been giving vaccines to huge numbers of priority workers who are not in vulnerable groups.
    Yes - I saw a similar chart for France I’m sure.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    explains manic Macrons attempts to divert attention elsewhere

    Mutti Merkel has also told the french to stay at home by tightening border controls
    Germany has also added Austria, Denmark and the Czech Republic to the same list according to reports. Gradually sealing itself off...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    edited March 2021
    I presume France etc are still also following the 3 week vaccination strategy rather than the 12 week pseudo-science one we are? And thus not getting anywhere near the amount of widespread coverage.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,692
    This is the graph of people in intensive care for France and the Paris region. It looks like they are following exactly the same pattern as the UK in Dec/Jan.
    https://twitter.com/GuillaumeRozier/status/1375504784535515136
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100
    edited March 2021

    My concern is that the rising caseload will be used as a pretext to keep unnecessary measures in place for an extended period of time, backed by the large fraction of the populace that is so shit scared of Covid that they may need to be patiently talked down for years, if that even proves possible at all.

    We had a meeting at work this morning in which there was an enormous amount of clucking about the minutiae of mask wearing and social distancing in various situations, accompanied by the widespread conviction that this would all be some kind of horrible "new normal" and might be going on for a very long time. I wanted desperately to remind everyone that the Government has already said it's aiming to dump all restrictions on social contact in June, and that there's little if anything left to be achieved from maintaining any of the apparatus of suppression by late Summer. Oh, and that it doesn't fucking matter if you can't stay two meters apart when travelling in opposite directions down the same corridor, because you're only near the other person for about three damned seconds.

    I bit my lip though. I'm not sure that the information would've been well-received.
    Wales news saying Drakeford is warning of the need for an abundance of caution as Drakeford has just said in the news he is concerned about variants including Brazil and removing restrictions will need caution

    He is following a zero covid policy and judging by the queues outside Asda today and general number of cars on the road he will not be able to hold this policy for long

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,617
    Has it been pointed out yet that the UK has done more second doses than France ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    explains manic Macrons attempts to divert attention elsewhere

    Mutti Merkel has also told the french to stay at home by tightening border controls
    Germany has also added Austria, Denmark and the Czech Republic to the same list according to reports. Gradually sealing itself off...
    Merkel has made a total mess of it. There is now a proposal to limit tenure as Chancellor to 2 terms only to stop a repitition.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083

    Has it been pointed out yet that the UK has done more second doses than France ?

    I presume Comedy Dave has been busy shredding his dodgy charts...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Westminster continues to legislate to overrule the Scottish Parliament willy nilly when it suits, in complete disregard of the Sewell Convention, it makes a mockery of any DevoMax provision.

    The end result is either Union on the same terms as Yorkshire or Warwickshire, or independence.

    I'm a unionist and I fundamentally believe that the only wave to secure the union long term is to put in place a sustainable settlement. Otherwise, you're making the same mistake Blair made and not finishing the job.

    So we have decide what Scotland's place within the union is. If that's DevoMax, then Westminster needs to accept it cannot treat Holyrood as a subordinate except on certain issues. There needs to be a clear and legal boundary - federalism if you will.

    Union matters are reserved to Westminster and the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998, the very Act which created Holyrood in the first place.

    Scotland already has more home rule than any other country or region of the UK, England does not even have a Parliament at all and there is a distinct possibility that in 2024 the Tories would win a majority in England but Starmer would become PM thanks to support from Scottish and Welsh MPs
    The Scotland Act puts the Sewell Convention on a statutory footing.

    If Westminster simply ignores that and legislates how it wants, when it suits, on anything, by simply amending the Scotland Act, then what on earth is the point of it?

    Scotland needs a sustainable long-term settlement. The current settlement is not that.

    I thought the Conservative Party was supposed to be about long-term stability?
    The Act doesn't do that re Sewell. It merely emits warm air. As was found in the runup to Brexit voting.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/sewel-convention
    I know that in reality it doesn't mean anything but that's exactly my point.

    If Westminster is never going to be willing to permanently cede power to the Scottish Parliament then DevoMax or similar will never be worth the paper it's written on.
    Cannot be achieved without the total abandonment of the unwritten constitution and the evolutionary process which has characterised the development of the UK's system of governance for its entire history. If you want to get rid of the absolute power of the Crown in Parliament (by giving subsidiary bodies inviolable rights) then that means a written constitution, which would have to be passed by referendum and probably by majorities in all four constituent parts of the country to make it workable.

    In order for that to happen, of course, there would first need to be a constitutional convention (that might drag on for years) in which all of the mainstream politicians, including the secessionist nationalist types, would somehow have to come to an agreement on what to include - although the whole process would probably collapse on the first morning when some bright spark insisted that any draft should include a trans rights clause. It's not going to happen.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Happy Birthday Bangladesh!

    Bangladesh is 50 today.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    DougSeal said:

    Maffew said:

    kle4 said:

    I would have assumed that the level of vaccination in the EU would have been high enough to cover a lot of the very old (and therefore vulnerable) and so ensure their latest set of waves are not as bad as ours in January, but it will still clearly be pretty darn bad in several of them even as we get near the period where supplies are to improve.

    I'm sure I've seen charts showing a vaccine effect in over 80s for France. I suspect that different priorities in different countries will have had an impact though. For example, the countries refusing to give AZN to over 65s or I heard (not from a reliable source admittedly) that Italy has been giving vaccines to huge numbers of priority workers who are not in vulnerable groups.
    Yes - I saw a similar chart for France I’m sure.
    It was an FT piece showing the vaccine effect in France on over 80s vs under 70s for cases, hospitalizations and deaths
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    My concern is that the rising caseload will be used as a pretext to keep unnecessary measures in place for an extended period of time, backed by the large fraction of the populace that is so shit scared of Covid that they may need to be patiently talked down for years, if that even proves possible at all.

    We had a meeting at work this morning in which there was an enormous amount of clucking about the minutiae of mask wearing and social distancing in various situations, accompanied by the widespread conviction that this would all be some kind of horrible "new normal" and might be going on for a very long time. I wanted desperately to remind everyone that the Government has already said it's aiming to dump all restrictions on social contact in June, and that there's little if anything left to be achieved from maintaining any of the apparatus of suppression by late Summer. Oh, and that it doesn't fucking matter if you can't stay two meters apart when travelling in opposite directions down the same corridor, because you're only near the other person for about three damned seconds.

    I bit my lip though. I'm not sure that the information would've been well-received.
    I give it until Christmas when we’ll all be back to shagging on the photocopiers again.

  • DougSeal said:

    My ex, a year and a half younger than me (I’m 47) and her husband (the bloke she dumped me for) both just informed the world via FB that they got vaccinated. Gits.

    The term is vaxholes.

    For example look at those vaxholes posting on Instagram that thanks to their jabs they have booked a trip to Spain for the summer.

    Talking about vaxholes, I may have mentioned I'm getting my second jab next week.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Has it been pointed out yet that the UK has done more second doses than France ?

    in % of population terms we have also overtaken Germany and will probably exceed them in quantum in the next week
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    This is the graph of people in intensive care for France and the Paris region. It looks like they are following exactly the same pattern as the UK in Dec/Jan.
    https://twitter.com/GuillaumeRozier/status/1375504784535515136

    That was posted on a previous thread yesterday. I tend to concur. I think, in terms of where they are relative to our Winter catastrophe, it's a week or two before Christmas in France.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Westminster continues to legislate to overrule the Scottish Parliament willy nilly when it suits, in complete disregard of the Sewell Convention, it makes a mockery of any DevoMax provision.

    The end result is either Union on the same terms as Yorkshire or Warwickshire, or independence.

    I'm a unionist and I fundamentally believe that the only wave to secure the union long term is to put in place a sustainable settlement. Otherwise, you're making the same mistake Blair made and not finishing the job.

    So we have decide what Scotland's place within the union is. If that's DevoMax, then Westminster needs to accept it cannot treat Holyrood as a subordinate except on certain issues. There needs to be a clear and legal boundary - federalism if you will.

    Union matters are reserved to Westminster and the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998, the very Act which created Holyrood in the first place.

    Scotland already has more home rule than any other country or region of the UK, England does not even have a Parliament at all and there is a distinct possibility that in 2024 the Tories would win a majority in England but Starmer would become PM thanks to support from Scottish and Welsh MPs
    The Scotland Act puts the Sewell Convention on a statutory footing.

    If Westminster simply ignores that and legislates how it wants, when it suits, on anything, by simply amending the Scotland Act, then what on earth is the point of it?

    Scotland needs a sustainable long-term settlement. The current settlement is not that.

    I thought the Conservative Party was supposed to be about long-term stability?
    The Act doesn't do that re Sewell. It merely emits warm air. As was found in the runup to Brexit voting.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/sewel-convention
    I know that in reality it doesn't mean anything but that's exactly my point.

    If Westminster is never going to be willing to permanently cede power to the Scottish Parliament then DevoMax or similar will never be worth the paper it's written on.
    Cannot be achieved without the total abandonment of the unwritten constitution and the evolutionary process which has characterised the development of the UK's system of governance for its entire history. If you want to get rid of the absolute power of the Crown in Parliament (by giving subsidiary bodies inviolable rights) then that means a written constitution, which would have to be passed by referendum and probably by majorities in all four constituent parts of the country to make it workable.

    In order for that to happen, of course, there would first need to be a constitutional convention (that might drag on for years) in which all of the mainstream politicians, including the secessionist nationalist types, would somehow have to come to an agreement on what to include - although the whole process would probably collapse on the first morning when some bright spark insisted that any draft should include a trans rights clause. It's not going to happen.
    That isn't true at all.

    I've discussed this before.

    Parliament can legislate to limit itself while retaining Parliamentary Sovereignty.

    It's done it already when it legislated to allow the Commons to overrule the Lords. We didn't have a constitutional convention when we did that on a whim.

    Parliament (Westminster) could legislate to change the procedure required for a bill to become an act, as it did with the Parliament Acts.

    For example, it could require the Scottish Parliament to approve when legislating in certain subject areas, otherwise the act cannot become a law. Just as Parliament legislated to allow the Commons to overrule the Lords on a particular subject area: finance.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,388
    MaxPB said:

    Had to happen I suppose - still positivity rate still well within control:


    Nothing to worry about, the rise in cases is basically all in the under 18s and by LFT. Without that cases are still dropping.
    I'm sure you're right, but do you have a source for that? I've never been able to find a breakdown of positive cases by age, or by PCR/LFT, but I'm probably just missing it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    This is the graph of people in intensive care for France and the Paris region. It looks like they are following exactly the same pattern as the UK in Dec/Jan.
    https://twitter.com/GuillaumeRozier/status/1375504784535515136

    But they all just said the Kent variant was fiction and it was all becuase the UK paused it's lockdown and had loads of Christmas shoppers.

    Honestly, they had the benefit of our experience and seeing our mistakes. All of the decisions across Europe have been a disaster.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    A SNP/Alba coalition would be fun.

    Sturgeon as First Minister and Salmond as Deputy First Minister, because 2020 was sooooo boring.

    Wouldn’t they both want to be on top?

    Allegedly
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,206

    I presume France etc are still also following the 3 week vaccination strategy rather than the 12 week pseudo-science one we are? And thus not getting anywhere near the amount of widespread coverage.

    Yes, and they're holding doses back. So that means that - even in a best case scenario - they're sitting on hundreds of thousands of doses that could be in peoples' arms.

    I would note that many other places also follow this strategy. And it's retarded.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    MaxPB said:

    This is the graph of people in intensive care for France and the Paris region. It looks like they are following exactly the same pattern as the UK in Dec/Jan.
    https://twitter.com/GuillaumeRozier/status/1375504784535515136

    But they all just said the Kent variant was fiction and it was all becuase the UK paused it's lockdown and had loads of Christmas shoppers.

    Honestly, they had the benefit of our experience and seeing our mistakes. All of the decisions across Europe have been a disaster.
    Hang on, I thought they were worried about the Kent strain. Wasn't that why they shuttle the tunnel?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    MaxPB said:

    Had to happen I suppose - still positivity rate still well within control:


    Nothing to worry about, the rise in cases is basically all in the under 18s and by LFT. Without that cases are still dropping.
    I'm sure you're right, but do you have a source for that? I've never been able to find a breakdown of positive cases by age, or by PCR/LFT, but I'm probably just missing it.
    There is in the specific England data under cases. Filter by that and scroll down you'll see a graph on testing split by speciment date.

    On the age split @Malmesbury does the daily graph and the main riser has been in the under 14s age group.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    This is the graph of people in intensive care for France and the Paris region. It looks like they are following exactly the same pattern as the UK in Dec/Jan.
    https://twitter.com/GuillaumeRozier/status/1375504784535515136

    But they all just said the Kent variant was fiction and it was all becuase the UK paused it's lockdown and had loads of Christmas shoppers.

    Honestly, they had the benefit of our experience and seeing our mistakes. All of the decisions across Europe have been a disaster.
    Hang on, I thought they were worried about the Kent strain. Wasn't that why they shuttle the tunnel?
    And yet here we are with European countries literally copying what we did at Christmas over Easter. 🤷‍♂️
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    CNN Business) Dominion Voting Systems, a voting technology company that was the target of baseless conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, filed a $1.6 billion defamation lawsuit against the right-wing channel Fox News on Friday.

    The company alleged that the network "recklessly disregarded the truth" and participated in a disinformation campaign against it because "the lies were good for Fox's business."

    In the immediate aftermath of the 2020 election, then-President Donald Trump falsely asserted that the election had been rigged against him. His allies promoted outlandish conspiracy theories about Dominion to support Trump's false claims.

    "Fox took a small flame" of disinformation and "turned it into a forest fire," Dominion said in its lawsuit.

    "The truth matters. Lies have consequences," Dominion's lawsuit added. "Fox sold a false story of election fraud in order to serve its own commercial purposes, severely injuring Dominion in the process. If this case does not rise to the level of defamation by a broadcaster, then nothing does."

    Dominion said that as a result of Fox's "orchestrated defamatory campaign" it had suffered "enormous and irreparable economic harm" and that its employees had been subject to death threats.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited March 2021
    OF course the question on here that dare not speak its name is how much do daily 'cases' need to rise for the government to go flaky on its timetable?

    Another 2000? another 5000? another 10,000?

    The tension is palpable. For people who are confident they are about to be given freedom, many posters aren't half cr8pping themselves.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    rcs1000 said:

    I presume France etc are still also following the 3 week vaccination strategy rather than the 12 week pseudo-science one we are? And thus not getting anywhere near the amount of widespread coverage.

    Yes, and they're holding doses back. So that means that - even in a best case scenario - they're sitting on hundreds of thousands of doses that could be in peoples' arms.

    I would note that many other places also follow this strategy. And it's retarded.
    Tbf, the UK is basically alone following this strategy. The data in favour is incontrovertible, 80% protection from hospitalisation and 85% against death with one dose of Pfizer for over 70s. There's literally no reason for countries to follow any other strategy for any vaccine. The gap should be extended and JiT supply chains should be used. It's all upside.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    OF course the question on here that dare not speak its name is how much do daily 'cases' need to rise for the government to go flaky on its timetable?

    Another 2000? another 5000? another 10,000?

    The tension is palpable. For people who are confident they are about to be given freedom, many posters aren't half cr8pping themselves.

    If they are sensible, given where we are with vaccination of vulnerable populations, the metric will not be new cases, but hospitalizations.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    OF course the question on here that dare not speak its name is how much do daily 'cases' need to rise for the government to go flaky on its timetable?

    Another 2000? another 5000? another 10,000?

    The tension is palpable. For people who are confident they are about to be given freedom, many posters aren't half cr8pping themselves.

    I don't think they'll go flaky, but we can't trust them not to. My expectation is that things will probably continue to go according to plan, but I won't actually believe it until it happens.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    IanB2 said:

    CNN Business) Dominion Voting Systems, a voting technology company that was the target of baseless conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, filed a $1.6 billion defamation lawsuit against the right-wing channel Fox News on Friday.

    The company alleged that the network "recklessly disregarded the truth" and participated in a disinformation campaign against it because "the lies were good for Fox's business."

    In the immediate aftermath of the 2020 election, then-President Donald Trump falsely asserted that the election had been rigged against him. His allies promoted outlandish conspiracy theories about Dominion to support Trump's false claims.

    "Fox took a small flame" of disinformation and "turned it into a forest fire," Dominion said in its lawsuit.

    "The truth matters. Lies have consequences," Dominion's lawsuit added. "Fox sold a false story of election fraud in order to serve its own commercial purposes, severely injuring Dominion in the process. If this case does not rise to the level of defamation by a broadcaster, then nothing does."

    Dominion said that as a result of Fox's "orchestrated defamatory campaign" it had suffered "enormous and irreparable economic harm" and that its employees had been subject to death threats.

    I would have thought that the notion that Dominion's machines were corruptible would not have been a fault for many regimes in the world. That would have been a feature. Buy.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Westminster continues to legislate to overrule the Scottish Parliament willy nilly when it suits, in complete disregard of the Sewell Convention, it makes a mockery of any DevoMax provision.

    The end result is either Union on the same terms as Yorkshire or Warwickshire, or independence.

    I'm a unionist and I fundamentally believe that the only wave to secure the union long term is to put in place a sustainable settlement. Otherwise, you're making the same mistake Blair made and not finishing the job.

    So we have decide what Scotland's place within the union is. If that's DevoMax, then Westminster needs to accept it cannot treat Holyrood as a subordinate except on certain issues. There needs to be a clear and legal boundary - federalism if you will.

    Union matters are reserved to Westminster and the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998, the very Act which created Holyrood in the first place.

    Scotland already has more home rule than any other country or region of the UK, England does not even have a Parliament at all and there is a distinct possibility that in 2024 the Tories would win a majority in England but Starmer would become PM thanks to support from Scottish and Welsh MPs
    The Scotland Act puts the Sewell Convention on a statutory footing.

    If Westminster simply ignores that and legislates how it wants, when it suits, on anything, by simply amending the Scotland Act, then what on earth is the point of it?

    Scotland needs a sustainable long-term settlement. The current settlement is not that.

    I thought the Conservative Party was supposed to be about long-term stability?
    The Act doesn't do that re Sewell. It merely emits warm air. As was found in the runup to Brexit voting.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/sewel-convention
    I know that in reality it doesn't mean anything but that's exactly my point.

    If Westminster is never going to be willing to permanently cede power to the Scottish Parliament then DevoMax or similar will never be worth the paper it's written on.
    Cannot be achieved without the total abandonment of the unwritten constitution and the evolutionary process which has characterised the development of the UK's system of governance for its entire history. If you want to get rid of the absolute power of the Crown in Parliament (by giving subsidiary bodies inviolable rights) then that means a written constitution, which would have to be passed by referendum and probably by majorities in all four constituent parts of the country to make it workable.

    In order for that to happen, of course, there would first need to be a constitutional convention (that might drag on for years) in which all of the mainstream politicians, including the secessionist nationalist types, would somehow have to come to an agreement on what to include - although the whole process would probably collapse on the first morning when some bright spark insisted that any draft should include a trans rights clause. It's not going to happen.
    That isn't true at all.

    I've discussed this before.

    Parliament can legislate to limit itself while retaining Parliamentary Sovereignty.

    It's done it already when it legislated to allow the Commons to overrule the Lords. We didn't have a constitutional convention when we did that on a whim.

    Parliament (Westminster) could legislate to change the procedure required for a bill to become an act, as it did with the Parliament Acts.

    For example, it could require the Scottish Parliament to approve when legislating in certain subject areas, otherwise the act cannot become a law. Just as Parliament legislated to allow the Commons to overrule the Lords on a particular subject area: finance.
    Just to expand on this.

    In order for a bill to become an act — the highest form of law in the land, it historically had to pass both the commons and the lords and receive royal assent.

    A bill passed only by the commons could not become an act.

    By enacting the Parliament Act, Parliament decided that it would change the procedure a bill had to go through to become an act. A bill could become an act without ever passing the Lords. Mental!

    In fact this was challenged in court and went all the way to the House of Lords. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_(Jackson)_v_Attorney_General

    The Countryside Alliance argued that the Hunting Act was not a valid law because it had been passed by virtue of the Parliament Act and had not been through the lords. The House of Lords judicial committee told them to F off.

    The same principle applies here. if Parliament used its sovereignty to pass a bill that changed the process of a bill becoming an act to require consent of a third-party in some circumstances, good luck arguing that is unconstitutional.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    TimT said:

    OF course the question on here that dare not speak its name is how much do daily 'cases' need to rise for the government to go flaky on its timetable?

    Another 2000? another 5000? another 10,000?

    The tension is palpable. For people who are confident they are about to be given freedom, many posters aren't half cr8pping themselves.

    If they are sensible, given where we are with vaccination of vulnerable populations, the metric will not be new cases, but hospitalizations.
    Indeed, this is the approach that Boris will take.

    Hospitalisations and deaths are falling. The vaccination programme is on track. The unlock timetable shall continue as planned.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Westminster continues to legislate to overrule the Scottish Parliament willy nilly when it suits, in complete disregard of the Sewell Convention, it makes a mockery of any DevoMax provision.

    The end result is either Union on the same terms as Yorkshire or Warwickshire, or independence.

    I'm a unionist and I fundamentally believe that the only wave to secure the union long term is to put in place a sustainable settlement. Otherwise, you're making the same mistake Blair made and not finishing the job.

    So we have decide what Scotland's place within the union is. If that's DevoMax, then Westminster needs to accept it cannot treat Holyrood as a subordinate except on certain issues. There needs to be a clear and legal boundary - federalism if you will.

    Union matters are reserved to Westminster and the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998, the very Act which created Holyrood in the first place.

    Scotland already has more home rule than any other country or region of the UK, England does not even have a Parliament at all and there is a distinct possibility that in 2024 the Tories would win a majority in England but Starmer would become PM thanks to support from Scottish and Welsh MPs
    The Scotland Act puts the Sewell Convention on a statutory footing.

    If Westminster simply ignores that and legislates how it wants, when it suits, on anything, by simply amending the Scotland Act, then what on earth is the point of it?

    Scotland needs a sustainable long-term settlement. The current settlement is not that.

    I thought the Conservative Party was supposed to be about long-term stability?
    The Act doesn't do that re Sewell. It merely emits warm air. As was found in the runup to Brexit voting.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/sewel-convention
    I know that in reality it doesn't mean anything but that's exactly my point.

    If Westminster is never going to be willing to permanently cede power to the Scottish Parliament then DevoMax or similar will never be worth the paper it's written on.
    Cannot be achieved without the total abandonment of the unwritten constitution and the evolutionary process which has characterised the development of the UK's system of governance for its entire history. If you want to get rid of the absolute power of the Crown in Parliament (by giving subsidiary bodies inviolable rights) then that means a written constitution, which would have to be passed by referendum and probably by majorities in all four constituent parts of the country to make it workable.

    In order for that to happen, of course, there would first need to be a constitutional convention (that might drag on for years) in which all of the mainstream politicians, including the secessionist nationalist types, would somehow have to come to an agreement on what to include - although the whole process would probably collapse on the first morning when some bright spark insisted that any draft should include a trans rights clause. It's not going to happen.
    That isn't true at all.

    I've discussed this before.

    Parliament can legislate to limit itself while retaining Parliamentary Sovereignty.

    It's done it already when it legislated to allow the Commons to overrule the Lords. We didn't have a constitutional convention when we did that on a whim.

    Parliament (Westminster) could legislate to change the procedure required for a bill to become an act, as it did with the Parliament Acts.

    For example, it could require the Scottish Parliament to approve when legislating in certain subject areas, otherwise the act cannot become a law. Just as Parliament legislated to allow the Commons to overrule the Lords on a particular subject area: finance.
    No Parliament can bind the hands of its successor. Legislation bolstering the power of a subsidiary body can always be amended.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I presume France etc are still also following the 3 week vaccination strategy rather than the 12 week pseudo-science one we are? And thus not getting anywhere near the amount of widespread coverage.

    Yes, and they're holding doses back. So that means that - even in a best case scenario - they're sitting on hundreds of thousands of doses that could be in peoples' arms.

    I would note that many other places also follow this strategy. And it's retarded.
    Tbf, the UK is basically alone following this strategy. The data in favour is incontrovertible, 80% protection from hospitalisation and 85% against death with one dose of Pfizer for over 70s. There's literally no reason for countries to follow any other strategy for any vaccine. The gap should be extended and JiT supply chains should be used. It's all upside.
    There might have been a reason once, but then we kindly ran a 20m person trial for them.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    Got pinged by the NHS COVID-19 app today along with most of my colleagues in the office. One person tested positive after being in the office yesterday and only a handful didn't get a notification from the app.

    As a result, I'm now locked in until the end of Easter Sunday. Not the best news as I wanted to try and go for a country walk next weekend but at least hopefully this might be the last time this happens.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,201

    Happy Birthday Bangladesh!

    Bangladesh is 50 today.

    Will be buying a motorbike.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    TimT said:

    OF course the question on here that dare not speak its name is how much do daily 'cases' need to rise for the government to go flaky on its timetable?

    Another 2000? another 5000? another 10,000?

    The tension is palpable. For people who are confident they are about to be given freedom, many posters aren't half cr8pping themselves.

    If they are sensible, given where we are with vaccination of vulnerable populations, the metric will not be new cases, but hospitalizations.
    Indeed, this is the approach that Boris will take.

    Hospitalisations and deaths are falling. The vaccination programme is on track. The unlock timetable shall continue as planned.
    How do you know that?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,692
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    This is the graph of people in intensive care for France and the Paris region. It looks like they are following exactly the same pattern as the UK in Dec/Jan.
    https://twitter.com/GuillaumeRozier/status/1375504784535515136

    But they all just said the Kent variant was fiction and it was all becuase the UK paused it's lockdown and had loads of Christmas shoppers.

    Honestly, they had the benefit of our experience and seeing our mistakes. All of the decisions across Europe have been a disaster.
    Hang on, I thought they were worried about the Kent strain. Wasn't that why they shuttle the tunnel?
    And yet here we are with European countries literally copying what we did at Christmas over Easter. 🤷‍♂️
    They still have schools open and no national lockdown. It's going to be a very tough next couple of months.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    This is the graph of people in intensive care for France and the Paris region. It looks like they are following exactly the same pattern as the UK in Dec/Jan.
    https://twitter.com/GuillaumeRozier/status/1375504784535515136

    But they all just said the Kent variant was fiction and it was all becuase the UK paused it's lockdown and had loads of Christmas shoppers.

    Honestly, they had the benefit of our experience and seeing our mistakes. All of the decisions across Europe have been a disaster.
    Hang on, I thought they were worried about the Kent strain. Wasn't that why they shuttle the tunnel?
    And yet here we are with European countries literally copying what we did at Christmas over Easter. 🤷‍♂️
    They still have schools open and no national lockdown. It's going to be a very tough next couple of months.
    Yes and Germany just cancelled it's Easter lockdown. I don't understand it at all.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    If Westminster continues to legislate to overrule the Scottish Parliament willy nilly when it suits, in complete disregard of the Sewell Convention, it makes a mockery of any DevoMax provision.

    The end result is either Union on the same terms as Yorkshire or Warwickshire, or independence.

    I'm a unionist and I fundamentally believe that the only wave to secure the union long term is to put in place a sustainable settlement. Otherwise, you're making the same mistake Blair made and not finishing the job.

    So we have decide what Scotland's place within the union is. If that's DevoMax, then Westminster needs to accept it cannot treat Holyrood as a subordinate except on certain issues. There needs to be a clear and legal boundary - federalism if you will.

    Union matters are reserved to Westminster and the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998, the very Act which created Holyrood in the first place.

    Scotland already has more home rule than any other country or region of the UK, England does not even have a Parliament at all and there is a distinct possibility that in 2024 the Tories would win a majority in England but Starmer would become PM thanks to support from Scottish and Welsh MPs
    The Scotland Act puts the Sewell Convention on a statutory footing.

    If Westminster simply ignores that and legislates how it wants, when it suits, on anything, by simply amending the Scotland Act, then what on earth is the point of it?

    Scotland needs a sustainable long-term settlement. The current settlement is not that.

    I thought the Conservative Party was supposed to be about long-term stability?
    The Act doesn't do that re Sewell. It merely emits warm air. As was found in the runup to Brexit voting.

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/sewel-convention
    I know that in reality it doesn't mean anything but that's exactly my point.

    If Westminster is never going to be willing to permanently cede power to the Scottish Parliament then DevoMax or similar will never be worth the paper it's written on.
    Cannot be achieved without the total abandonment of the unwritten constitution and the evolutionary process which has characterised the development of the UK's system of governance for its entire history. If you want to get rid of the absolute power of the Crown in Parliament (by giving subsidiary bodies inviolable rights) then that means a written constitution, which would have to be passed by referendum and probably by majorities in all four constituent parts of the country to make it workable.

    In order for that to happen, of course, there would first need to be a constitutional convention (that might drag on for years) in which all of the mainstream politicians, including the secessionist nationalist types, would somehow have to come to an agreement on what to include - although the whole process would probably collapse on the first morning when some bright spark insisted that any draft should include a trans rights clause. It's not going to happen.
    That isn't true at all.

    I've discussed this before.

    Parliament can legislate to limit itself while retaining Parliamentary Sovereignty.

    It's done it already when it legislated to allow the Commons to overrule the Lords. We didn't have a constitutional convention when we did that on a whim.

    Parliament (Westminster) could legislate to change the procedure required for a bill to become an act, as it did with the Parliament Acts.

    For example, it could require the Scottish Parliament to approve when legislating in certain subject areas, otherwise the act cannot become a law. Just as Parliament legislated to allow the Commons to overrule the Lords on a particular subject area: finance.
    No Parliament can bind the hands of its successor. Legislation bolstering the power of a subsidiary body can always be amended.
    You're missing the point entirely. Such legislation wouldn't "bolster the power of a subsidiary body", it would simply change the procedure of what makes a law a law.

    Parliament can absolutely bind the hands of its successor if it chooses. Ultimately parliament is sovereign and can make any law it chooses including changing the process of what makes a law a law, as it has already done.

    This isn't some hypothetical scenario - it's already happened!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    This is the graph of people in intensive care for France and the Paris region. It looks like they are following exactly the same pattern as the UK in Dec/Jan.
    https://twitter.com/GuillaumeRozier/status/1375504784535515136

    But they all just said the Kent variant was fiction and it was all becuase the UK paused it's lockdown and had loads of Christmas shoppers.

    Honestly, they had the benefit of our experience and seeing our mistakes. All of the decisions across Europe have been a disaster.
    Hang on, I thought they were worried about the Kent strain. Wasn't that why they shuttle the tunnel?
    And yet here we are with European countries literally copying what we did at Christmas over Easter. 🤷‍♂️
    It is astonishing. It was perfectly obvious that the big spike in the UK was caused by a combination of the new variant and the mistake Boris made in dithering over lockdown. Why on earth did the Germans, French and some other EU countries think they'd be immune to the same factors?

    Even now they don't seem to have got it. I think they've been sidetracked by their vaccine jealousy, but vaccines are actually pretty much irrelevant to the immediate problem. They need to get the cases down fast, whatever they are going to be able to do on vaccinations.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,019
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    This is the graph of people in intensive care for France and the Paris region. It looks like they are following exactly the same pattern as the UK in Dec/Jan.
    https://twitter.com/GuillaumeRozier/status/1375504784535515136

    But they all just said the Kent variant was fiction and it was all becuase the UK paused it's lockdown and had loads of Christmas shoppers.

    Honestly, they had the benefit of our experience and seeing our mistakes. All of the decisions across Europe have been a disaster.
    Hang on, I thought they were worried about the Kent strain. Wasn't that why they shuttle the tunnel?
    And yet here we are with European countries literally copying what we did at Christmas over Easter. 🤷‍♂️
    They still have schools open and no national lockdown. It's going to be a very tough next couple of months.
    Yes and Germany just cancelled it's Easter lockdown. I don't understand it at all.
    The German Federal Elections are exactly six months today.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    TimT said:

    OF course the question on here that dare not speak its name is how much do daily 'cases' need to rise for the government to go flaky on its timetable?

    Another 2000? another 5000? another 10,000?

    The tension is palpable. For people who are confident they are about to be given freedom, many posters aren't half cr8pping themselves.

    If they are sensible, given where we are with vaccination of vulnerable populations, the metric will not be new cases, but hospitalizations.
    Indeed, this is the approach that Boris will take.

    Hospitalisations and deaths are falling. The vaccination programme is on track. The unlock timetable shall continue as planned.
    How do you know that?
    Cos the Government said that case rises would matter only if they risked the healthcare system. If they were lying then there’s nothing I can do about that.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    OF course the question on here that dare not speak its name is how much do daily 'cases' need to rise for the government to go flaky on its timetable?

    Another 2000? another 5000? another 10,000?

    The tension is palpable. For people who are confident they are about to be given freedom, many posters aren't half cr8pping themselves.

    I don't think they'll go flaky, but we can't trust them not to. My expectation is that things will probably continue to go according to plan, but I won't actually believe it until it happens.
    IF we can't trust our government with our basic liberties then why the f8ck are they our government?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    This is the graph of people in intensive care for France and the Paris region. It looks like they are following exactly the same pattern as the UK in Dec/Jan.
    https://twitter.com/GuillaumeRozier/status/1375504784535515136

    But they all just said the Kent variant was fiction and it was all becuase the UK paused it's lockdown and had loads of Christmas shoppers.

    Honestly, they had the benefit of our experience and seeing our mistakes. All of the decisions across Europe have been a disaster.
    Hang on, I thought they were worried about the Kent strain. Wasn't that why they shuttle the tunnel?
    And yet here we are with European countries literally copying what we did at Christmas over Easter. 🤷‍♂️
    It is astonishing. It was perfectly obvious that the big spike in the UK was caused by a combination of the new variant and the mistake Boris made in dithering over lockdown. Why on earth did the Germans, French and some other EU countries think they'd be immune to the same factors?

    Even now they don't seem to have got it. I think they've been sidetracked by their vaccine jealousy, but vaccines are actually pretty much irrelevant to the immediate problem. They need to get the cases down fast, whatever they are going to be able to do on vaccinations.
    Particularly as it is roughly 3 weeks infection to death and 3 weeks first dose to decent protection. Anything happening right now wrt new infections will not be affected by vaccinations happening now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    edited March 2021
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    This is the graph of people in intensive care for France and the Paris region. It looks like they are following exactly the same pattern as the UK in Dec/Jan.
    https://twitter.com/GuillaumeRozier/status/1375504784535515136

    But they all just said the Kent variant was fiction and it was all becuase the UK paused it's lockdown and had loads of Christmas shoppers.

    Honestly, they had the benefit of our experience and seeing our mistakes. All of the decisions across Europe have been a disaster.
    Hang on, I thought they were worried about the Kent strain. Wasn't that why they shuttle the tunnel?
    And yet here we are with European countries literally copying what we did at Christmas over Easter. 🤷‍♂️
    They still have schools open and no national lockdown. It's going to be a very tough next couple of months.
    Yes and Germany just cancelled it's Easter lockdown. I don't understand it at all.
    Remember when we were told Merkel understands covid because she is a scientist, unlike all the dumdums with their classics degrees like Boris.....

    Germany most definitely not following the science and haven't done for 7-8 months now.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    DougSeal said:

    TimT said:

    OF course the question on here that dare not speak its name is how much do daily 'cases' need to rise for the government to go flaky on its timetable?

    Another 2000? another 5000? another 10,000?

    The tension is palpable. For people who are confident they are about to be given freedom, many posters aren't half cr8pping themselves.

    If they are sensible, given where we are with vaccination of vulnerable populations, the metric will not be new cases, but hospitalizations.
    Indeed, this is the approach that Boris will take.

    Hospitalisations and deaths are falling. The vaccination programme is on track. The unlock timetable shall continue as planned.
    How do you know that?
    Cos the Government said that case rises would matter only if they risked the healthcare system. If they were lying then there’s nothing I can do about that.
    Here's a thought. You could stop defending them at every turn.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,201

    OF course the question on here that dare not speak its name is how much do daily 'cases' need to rise for the government to go flaky on its timetable?

    Another 2000? another 5000? another 10,000?

    The tension is palpable. For people who are confident they are about to be given freedom, many posters aren't half cr8pping themselves.

    They are too! Which is why it's good that you are here to reassure them.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    This is the graph of people in intensive care for France and the Paris region. It looks like they are following exactly the same pattern as the UK in Dec/Jan.
    https://twitter.com/GuillaumeRozier/status/1375504784535515136

    But they all just said the Kent variant was fiction and it was all becuase the UK paused it's lockdown and had loads of Christmas shoppers.

    Honestly, they had the benefit of our experience and seeing our mistakes. All of the decisions across Europe have been a disaster.
    Hang on, I thought they were worried about the Kent strain. Wasn't that why they shuttle the tunnel?
    And yet here we are with European countries literally copying what we did at Christmas over Easter. 🤷‍♂️
    It is astonishing. It was perfectly obvious that the big spike in the UK was caused by a combination of the new variant and the mistake Boris made in dithering over lockdown. Why on earth did the Germans, French and some other EU countries think they'd be immune to the same factors?

    Even now they don't seem to have got it. I think they've been sidetracked by their vaccine jealousy, but vaccines are actually pretty much irrelevant to the immediate problem. They need to get the cases down fast, whatever they are going to be able to do on vaccinations.
    I genuinely believe that the politicians all look at the Kent variant being more transmissive being made up by the UK as cover for our horrible winter situation. It's the only explanation for why they haven't taken it seriously.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    edited March 2021
    Cartoons of Prophet Muhammad 'had been on school's curriculum for TWO YEARS

    In that instance, they said, the lesson was taken by another teacher to the one suspended by the school after threats and protests by angry Muslims.

    During that lesson two pupils were warned beforehand that the content would include caricatures of the Prophet and they were given the opportunity to leave the classroom if they were likely to be offended.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9407425/Cartoons-Prophet-Muhammad-schools-curriculum-TWO-YEARS.html
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,870

    Happy Birthday Bangladesh!

    Bangladesh is 50 today.

    Actually they had to wait until liberation in December 1971.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770
    Radio 4 really doesn't do comedy does it?

    The people in the canned laughter should sue.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    TimT said:

    OF course the question on here that dare not speak its name is how much do daily 'cases' need to rise for the government to go flaky on its timetable?

    Another 2000? another 5000? another 10,000?

    The tension is palpable. For people who are confident they are about to be given freedom, many posters aren't half cr8pping themselves.

    If they are sensible, given where we are with vaccination of vulnerable populations, the metric will not be new cases, but hospitalizations.
    Indeed, this is the approach that Boris will take.

    Hospitalisations and deaths are falling. The vaccination programme is on track. The unlock timetable shall continue as planned.
    How do you know that?
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
    Deaths -29% per week, will be 300 next week and below 200 per week mid April

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
    Hospitalisations - sub 5,000, will be sub 3,000 mid April

    Check the 4 criteria:
    - the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
    - evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
    - infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
    - our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited March 2021
    Deleted
  • Labour is going to re-build the Red Wall

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1375508534557691904
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    edited March 2021
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    This is the graph of people in intensive care for France and the Paris region. It looks like they are following exactly the same pattern as the UK in Dec/Jan.
    https://twitter.com/GuillaumeRozier/status/1375504784535515136

    But they all just said the Kent variant was fiction and it was all becuase the UK paused it's lockdown and had loads of Christmas shoppers.

    Honestly, they had the benefit of our experience and seeing our mistakes. All of the decisions across Europe have been a disaster.
    Hang on, I thought they were worried about the Kent strain. Wasn't that why they shuttle the tunnel?
    And yet here we are with European countries literally copying what we did at Christmas over Easter. 🤷‍♂️
    It is astonishing. It was perfectly obvious that the big spike in the UK was caused by a combination of the new variant and the mistake Boris made in dithering over lockdown. Why on earth did the Germans, French and some other EU countries think they'd be immune to the same factors?

    Even now they don't seem to have got it. I think they've been sidetracked by their vaccine jealousy, but vaccines are actually pretty much irrelevant to the immediate problem. They need to get the cases down fast, whatever they are going to be able to do on vaccinations.
    I genuinely believe that the politicians all look at the Kent variant being more transmissive being made up by the UK as cover for our horrible winter situation. It's the only explanation for why they haven't taken it seriously.
    Sounds like repeating the mistake of the initial data from China....yes the gross numbers were fudged, but the percentages were about right, but the west definitely came up with reasons like lower density housing, better air quality, lower smoking rates, better healthcare as to why it wouldn't be that bad.

    I wonder how much Germany doing well in the first wave has effected all these mistakes with the summer vacations, lockdown light and now this....when yes they did very well, but there was an element of luck that their initial outbreak was young people and fast to get testing up and running, kept numbers well down this time last year.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,851
    O/T Such was the concern about possible kill the bill protests that our office shut at 5pm today.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,692
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    This is the graph of people in intensive care for France and the Paris region. It looks like they are following exactly the same pattern as the UK in Dec/Jan.
    https://twitter.com/GuillaumeRozier/status/1375504784535515136

    But they all just said the Kent variant was fiction and it was all becuase the UK paused it's lockdown and had loads of Christmas shoppers.

    Honestly, they had the benefit of our experience and seeing our mistakes. All of the decisions across Europe have been a disaster.
    Hang on, I thought they were worried about the Kent strain. Wasn't that why they shuttle the tunnel?
    And yet here we are with European countries literally copying what we did at Christmas over Easter. 🤷‍♂️
    It is astonishing. It was perfectly obvious that the big spike in the UK was caused by a combination of the new variant and the mistake Boris made in dithering over lockdown. Why on earth did the Germans, French and some other EU countries think they'd be immune to the same factors?

    Even now they don't seem to have got it. I think they've been sidetracked by their vaccine jealousy, but vaccines are actually pretty much irrelevant to the immediate problem. They need to get the cases down fast, whatever they are going to be able to do on vaccinations.
    I genuinely believe that the politicians all look at the Kent variant being more transmissive being made up by the UK as cover for our horrible winter situation. It's the only explanation for why they haven't taken it seriously.
    The narrative was that Boris was in the same category as Trump and Bolsonaro, so everything was seen as a sign of incompetence from which no lessons could be learnt.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    @CorrectHorseBattery Lab hold Hartlepool on that poll.
  • Cartoons of Prophet Muhammad 'had been on school's curriculum for TWO YEARS

    In that instance, they said, the lesson was taken by another teacher to the one suspended by the school after threats and protests by angry Muslims.

    During that lesson two pupils were warned beforehand that the content would include caricatures of the Prophet and they were given the opportunity to leave the classroom if they were likely to be offended.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9407425/Cartoons-Prophet-Muhammad-schools-curriculum-TWO-YEARS.html

    Showing pictures wont be in the curriculum, but a discussion around censorship and people's freedom to practise their religion is part of the RE GCSE.
  • @CorrectHorseBattery Lab hold Hartlepool on that poll.

    Might put a bet down
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    What medication cocktail is he on? The rose-tinted variety, clearly
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770
    A 15% swing seems implausible to me.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    @CorrectHorseBattery Lab hold Hartlepool on that poll.

    Might put a bet down
    LAB absolutely certain to hold Hartlepool
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    TimT said:

    What medication cocktail is he on? The rose-tinted variety, clearly
    Even the current, much decreased, daily COVID death rate is higher than the number cited by Giuliani as YTD
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    lol. Or maybe not lol at all

    I originally read that as 94.000 deaths IN ONE DAY, which is definitely "bad"

    The reality is still grim. Jeez
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Omnium said:

    A 15% swing seems implausible to me.
    That's Northern seats not % of Hartlepool vote. It's an MRP model.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    I don't understand why they polled Berwick upon Tweed and not Durham North West?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    TimT said:

    OF course the question on here that dare not speak its name is how much do daily 'cases' need to rise for the government to go flaky on its timetable?

    Another 2000? another 5000? another 10,000?

    The tension is palpable. For people who are confident they are about to be given freedom, many posters aren't half cr8pping themselves.

    If they are sensible, given where we are with vaccination of vulnerable populations, the metric will not be new cases, but hospitalizations.
    Indeed, this is the approach that Boris will take.

    Hospitalisations and deaths are falling. The vaccination programme is on track. The unlock timetable shall continue as planned.
    How do you know that?
    Cos the Government said that case rises would matter only if they risked the healthcare system. If they were lying then there’s nothing I can do about that.
    Here's a thought. You could stop defending them at every turn.
    I have no doubt long term readers of this board can educate you as to my less than stellar views on Boris Johnson. Nevertheless that is what they have said. If they are lying then they are lying. Nothing I can do about that.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770
    tlg86 said:

    Omnium said:

    A 15% swing seems implausible to me.
    That's Northern seats not % of Hartlepool vote. It's an MRP model.
    Yes, but even on that basis I'd be suspicious.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    This is the graph of people in intensive care for France and the Paris region. It looks like they are following exactly the same pattern as the UK in Dec/Jan.
    https://twitter.com/GuillaumeRozier/status/1375504784535515136

    But they all just said the Kent variant was fiction and it was all becuase the UK paused it's lockdown and had loads of Christmas shoppers.

    Honestly, they had the benefit of our experience and seeing our mistakes. All of the decisions across Europe have been a disaster.
    Hang on, I thought they were worried about the Kent strain. Wasn't that why they shuttle the tunnel?
    And yet here we are with European countries literally copying what we did at Christmas over Easter. 🤷‍♂️
    It is astonishing. It was perfectly obvious that the big spike in the UK was caused by a combination of the new variant and the mistake Boris made in dithering over lockdown. Why on earth did the Germans, French and some other EU countries think they'd be immune to the same factors?

    Even now they don't seem to have got it. I think they've been sidetracked by their vaccine jealousy, but vaccines are actually pretty much irrelevant to the immediate problem. They need to get the cases down fast, whatever they are going to be able to do on vaccinations.
    I genuinely believe that the politicians all look at the Kent variant being more transmissive being made up by the UK as cover for our horrible winter situation. It's the only explanation for why they haven't taken it seriously.
    The narrative was that Boris was in the same category as Trump and Bolsonaro, so everything was seen as a sign of incompetence from which no lessons could be learnt.
    It does feel like it doesn't it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    I guess three weeks ago we would have taken a rise of 2,411 week on week as the price for opening up the schools?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Don't understand the French data. Reuters says 897 deaths. But Worldometer says just 363

    ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    edited March 2021
    Leon said:

    lol. Or maybe not lol at all

    I originally read that as 94.000 deaths IN ONE DAY, which is definitely "bad"

    The reality is still grim. Jeez
    The French would be going extinct by early summer if that was a daily rate!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    What medication cocktail is he on? The rose-tinted variety, clearly
    Even the current, much decreased, daily COVID death rate is higher than the number cited by Giuliani as YTD
    The Tweet is a year old.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Leon said:

    Don't understand the French data. Reuters says 897 deaths. But Worldometer says just 363

    ?

    Total is the same, so additional backdating?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,764
    Leon said:

    lol. Or maybe not lol at all

    I originally read that as 94.000 deaths IN ONE DAY, which is definitely "bad"

    The reality is still grim. Jeez
    But think of all the blood clots they've not suffered by refusing to use the AZ vaccine.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    French Minister here, kinda hoping our delayed dosage strategy blows up. Thanks bro

    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1375523533158236160?s=20
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    TimT said:

    OF course the question on here that dare not speak its name is how much do daily 'cases' need to rise for the government to go flaky on its timetable?

    Another 2000? another 5000? another 10,000?

    The tension is palpable. For people who are confident they are about to be given freedom, many posters aren't half cr8pping themselves.

    If they are sensible, given where we are with vaccination of vulnerable populations, the metric will not be new cases, but hospitalizations.
    Indeed, this is the approach that Boris will take.

    Hospitalisations and deaths are falling. The vaccination programme is on track. The unlock timetable shall continue as planned.
    How do you know that?
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
    Deaths -29% per week, will be 300 next week and below 200 per week mid April

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
    Hospitalisations - sub 5,000, will be sub 3,000 mid April

    Check the 4 criteria:
    - the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
    - evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
    - infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
    - our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern
    Item 3 is the possible get out clause. Can we all be absolutely sure that, the moment R exceeds 1 and a large fraction of the scientific community starts to panic about the disease finding out all the unvaccinated (or those for whom the vaccine hasn't worked very well) - and some of them have started panicking already, by the way - that the Government won't go all wobbly?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    I guess three weeks ago we would have taken a rise of 2,411 week on week as the price for opening up the schools?

    I'm honestly not sure how much of a rise there has actually been given the levels of testing we have of kids and teachers now and the rise in cases is majority in kids.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Don't understand the French data. Reuters says 897 deaths. But Worldometer says just 363

    ?

    Total is the same, so additional backdating?
    Yes, seems to be backdated care home deaths, which they announce on Friday. So a genuine total, just spread out. A lot of deaths.....
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,475
    ..
    Andy_JS said:
    The Scottish Government doesn't have advisors in the traditional sense, it has mouthpieces. Nicola tells Devi what her advice to Nicola is going to be.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    TimT said:

    OF course the question on here that dare not speak its name is how much do daily 'cases' need to rise for the government to go flaky on its timetable?

    Another 2000? another 5000? another 10,000?

    The tension is palpable. For people who are confident they are about to be given freedom, many posters aren't half cr8pping themselves.

    If they are sensible, given where we are with vaccination of vulnerable populations, the metric will not be new cases, but hospitalizations.
    Indeed, this is the approach that Boris will take.

    Hospitalisations and deaths are falling. The vaccination programme is on track. The unlock timetable shall continue as planned.
    How do you know that?
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
    Deaths -29% per week, will be 300 next week and below 200 per week mid April

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
    Hospitalisations - sub 5,000, will be sub 3,000 mid April

    Check the 4 criteria:
    - the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
    - evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
    - infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
    - our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern
    Item 3 is the possible get out clause. Can we all be absolutely sure that, the moment R exceeds 1 and a large fraction of the scientific community starts to panic about the disease finding out all the unvaccinated (or those for whom the vaccine hasn't worked very well) - and some of them have started panicking already, by the way - that the Government won't go all wobbly?
    It's specifically linked to hospitals this so not much of a get out clause, we're now under 4k in hospital and under 300 daily hospitalisations. The latter number will start to drop again and reach a very low number as the vaccine becomes effective for the more recent recipients and the second dose programme reaches the 15m in groups 1-4 over the next 4 or 5 weeks.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,355
    MaxPB said:

    I guess three weeks ago we would have taken a rise of 2,411 week on week as the price for opening up the schools?

    I'm honestly not sure how much of a rise there has actually been given the levels of testing we have of kids and teachers now and the rise in cases is majority in kids.
    Anyone want this as the graph of their pay rises for the next few years?

    image

    Would be nice to have all UK data for this one...

    image
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    DougSeal said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    What medication cocktail is he on? The rose-tinted variety, clearly
    Even the current, much decreased, daily COVID death rate is higher than the number cited by Giuliani as YTD
    The Tweet is a year old.
    Well, that explains it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,227
    Has the EU triggered it's Dispute Resolution Mechanism with AZ?

    (NYT Euro Correspondent)

    https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1375412890644135937
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    DougSeal said:

    My ex, a year and a half younger than me (I’m 47) and her husband (the bloke she dumped me for) both just informed the world via FB that they got vaccinated. Gits.

    For some reason, your username and that anecdote made me think of this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMD2TwRvuoU
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    @Gallowgate - thanks for the answers.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    edited March 2021
    Omnium said:

    tlg86 said:

    Omnium said:

    A 15% swing seems implausible to me.
    That's Northern seats not % of Hartlepool vote. It's an MRP model.
    Yes, but even on that basis I'd be suspicious.
    I can't find a spreadsheet for this model, but of these seats:

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1375509529140457477

    Only Colne Valley is an extra gain for Labour v the MRP released at the start of the year. Also, for Hartlepool:

    https://twitter.com/focaldataHQ/status/1375424899918004227

    So compared with the start of the year they have:

    Labour: 39% (-4 pp)
    Con: 36% (+9 pp)
    RUK: 9% (-8 pp v Brexit Party)
    Green: 7% (+2 pp)
    LD: 3% (-2 pp)
    Other: 6% (-3 pp)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I can’t see how people can back the Tories at EVS in Hartlepool. Labour have always held the seat, retained it by 8% less than 18 months ago, and that was with Jez the turnoff in charge rather than Super Keir. There’s also no chance of Brexit not happening by voting Labour now, even if they don’t support it.

    Yes, there maybe local factors that put off backing what seems enormous value Lab EVS, I’m not convinced, but I don’t get how people can think it’s a better than 50% chance the Tories will take it
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Leon said:

    Don't understand the French data. Reuters says 897 deaths. But Worldometer says just 363

    ?

    They redistribute care home deaths from reporting date to estimated specimen date.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    TimT said:

    OF course the question on here that dare not speak its name is how much do daily 'cases' need to rise for the government to go flaky on its timetable?

    Another 2000? another 5000? another 10,000?

    The tension is palpable. For people who are confident they are about to be given freedom, many posters aren't half cr8pping themselves.

    If they are sensible, given where we are with vaccination of vulnerable populations, the metric will not be new cases, but hospitalizations.
    Indeed, this is the approach that Boris will take.

    Hospitalisations and deaths are falling. The vaccination programme is on track. The unlock timetable shall continue as planned.
    How do you know that?
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
    Deaths -29% per week, will be 300 next week and below 200 per week mid April

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
    Hospitalisations - sub 5,000, will be sub 3,000 mid April

    Check the 4 criteria:
    - the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
    - evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
    - infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
    - our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern
    Item 3 is the possible get out clause. Can we all be absolutely sure that, the moment R exceeds 1 and a large fraction of the scientific community starts to panic about the disease finding out all the unvaccinated (or those for whom the vaccine hasn't worked very well) - and some of them have started panicking already, by the way - that the Government won't go all wobbly?
    We can’t be sure. We can’t be sure that we won’t get hit by an asteroid tomorrow either. The only scientist I know who is panicking is that public health expert from Edinburgh Uni who is a professional doom merchant anyway. Any others? There is no reason to panic. We are two weeks into the schools going back. If this wasn’t expected then what was?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,080

    TimT said:

    OF course the question on here that dare not speak its name is how much do daily 'cases' need to rise for the government to go flaky on its timetable?

    Another 2000? another 5000? another 10,000?

    The tension is palpable. For people who are confident they are about to be given freedom, many posters aren't half cr8pping themselves.

    If they are sensible, given where we are with vaccination of vulnerable populations, the metric will not be new cases, but hospitalizations.
    Indeed, this is the approach that Boris will take.

    Hospitalisations and deaths are falling. The vaccination programme is on track. The unlock timetable shall continue as planned.
    How do you know that?
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
    Deaths -29% per week, will be 300 next week and below 200 per week mid April

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
    Hospitalisations - sub 5,000, will be sub 3,000 mid April

    Check the 4 criteria:
    - the vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
    - evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
    - infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
    - our assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new Variants of Concern
    Item 3 is the possible get out clause. Can we all be absolutely sure that, the moment R exceeds 1 and a large fraction of the scientific community starts to panic about the disease finding out all the unvaccinated (or those for whom the vaccine hasn't worked very well) - and some of them have started panicking already, by the way - that the Government won't go all wobbly?
    I reckon it matters more whether the general public go all wobbly. Any restrictions won't hold if people are still feeling confident.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    MattW said:

    Has the EU triggered it's Dispute Resolution Mechanism with AZ?

    (NYT Euro Correspondent)

    https://twitter.com/MatinaStevis/status/1375412890644135937

    "We don't have supplies to send to everyone who has ordered them" may not be a great answer, but it is true, so not sure if a dispute resolution can solve that issue.
This discussion has been closed.