Is there anything to stop, say, the Scottish Conservative party, not contesting the List, and instead entering a completely-separate-yet-strangely-similar "Conservative List" party, while instructing their supporters to vote for one in the seat election and the other in the List? If I've understood correctly, the resulting coalition of the two would have a fair amount more seats than if they just stood as one party, even if they lost some voters along the way due to confusion.
If not, why has no-one thought of this yet?
I guess the name could be ruled out as too similar, so they might have to find one that's dissimilar enough to pass that test.
It seems to me that you shouldn't be allowed to only stand for list seats.
Yes. I think that AMS is a bit silly with two separate votes. It would in some ways be better if the constituency votes were added up across the region to be used for the calculation of the top-up seats.
That was more or less the original German system used in 1949, with a single vote. It has some disadvantages in terms of voter choice - and what happens to the votes of unsuccessful independent candidates. It was replaced for the next election with the 2 vote system.
The current German system is kind of complicated, but tries to keep to strict proportionality for all the parties that meet the threshold (though I guess it would still be theoretically somewhat vulnerable to a determined attempt to use a decoy list). It does involve having a parliament that can vary in size from 598 to 897 - currently 709 members.
Isn't it time to update the German constitution for the modern era rather than it being formulated because of the fear of Nazis hiding under the bed? There was an obvious and well-founded fear in the late 40s / 50s that the Nazis could return to power, subvert democracy but surely you have passed that point. All the old Nazis are dead and the neo-Nazi movement has no chance of getting into power nor will it ever.
This is not taking a swipe for the sake of it but the way the German system is set up brings about a set of disadvantages. Corruption and cronyism for a start. How many scandals have there been involving German companies deliberately hiding data (eg VW) or knee deep in scandal (Deutsche Bank)? The claim that it all has to be hidden and kept away from the public because "it might encourage the Nazis" is getting a bit thin.
I wonder how many Unionist parties will get fewer MSPs than Alba?
Lib Dems nailed on?
No, the LDs will probably get about 8 MSPs and could also win the Caithness, Sutherland and Ross constituency MSP seat from the SNP which has a LD MP already
Want a bet? What odds will you give to Alba getting more seats than the Lib Dems?
EDIT: Seats not votes.
They will certainly get more constituency MSPs, I am not betting on the list
Considering Alba aren't even standing in the constituency seats that's a pretty safe remark.
That’s my vote sorted. SNP for constituency. Personal vote for Kenny Gibson. Alba on list. Voted Chris McEleny for list selection, so delighted to still be able to vote for him, instead of the woke pushed to the top of the list after receiving about 4% of the votes.
Message for HYFUD. Last time I voted SNP 1 and 2. List vote was wasted. This time I hope to have helped select an additional independence MSP, rather than letting a unionist in.
So... this whole bust-up between Sturgeon and Salmond was manufactured so that nationalists could create a decoy list without it looking like they are trying to game the system...
Not manufactured, but even a political mess still seems like it could help them.
France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has warned that countries should not be "playing with blackmail" in the bid to get their populations vaccinated.
Le Drian also told French broadcaster FranceInfo that the UK had a problem with delivering second doses of vaccine. His comments come after an EU summit on Thursday to discuss the shortage of vaccines in Europe.
He was quizzed by the presenter as to whether Europe had been "scammed" by sending vaccines to the UK and not receiving any in return. He said that, while the UK took pride in having vaccinated a lot of people with their first jabs, they had a problem delivering the second.
-----
This is the clear dangerous and false narrative being pushed....its as dangerous as AZN is crap stuff. Its the sort of propaganda the GRU used on social media to cause such problems in the US.
I am not at all sure I understand this narrative about the UK having trouble with the second doses. Surely that problem only arises if both the Pfizer supply from Belgium is abruptly cut off and there's not enough already in storage to cover the olds' second appointment?
The inference might be that there isn't enough AZ but I would've thought that unlikely, given that it's produced domestically and half the Indian order was also successfully delivered recently. Presumably the worst case scenario on that front is that the bulk of production has to be reserved for second doses and Phase Two slows down a bit more?
So, Labour well and truly in play at a time of almost zero visibility for them, and of peak vaccine triumph for a Tory government who's main policy of Brexit is looking vindicated to all but the ever diminishing ranks of the cognescenti.
Starmer will be feeling like the cat with the cream.
Well the big difference is always the Labour score....there used to be the golden rule, take the lowest Labour score among a range of polls.
Besides which, Labour is now structurally disadvantaged when contesting general elections. In 2005 Tony Blair outpolled Michael Howard by 2.8% and won a comfortable Parliamentary majority. By 2017 Theresa May only beat Jeremy Corbyn by 2.4% and still finished more than 50 seats ahead of Labour. The implosion of the Liberal Democrats, then of the Scottish Labour Party and finally of the Red Wall (with what's left of Labour's support now largely stacked up in the big cities or too thinly spread elsewhere to get out of second place,) has really crippled them.
Yes, I think the structural outlook for Labour is bleak. If you look at the "big themes" of politics that tend to dominate politics and influence votes (religion, class etc), they tend to influence voting for several decades. We are hardly in to the start of the trend where views on culture are the determinant factor of voting. It's hard to see Labour breaking out of the cities. The possible exception might be if professional graduates moved out of cities and into more rural / suburban areas but that is not guaranteed and will take time.
So a disgruntled former party leader has flounced off to join the Tories form his own party. Complete with a catchy one word name reflecting the country he loves.
Why doesn't Jeremy Corbyn do the same, and form his own national pride party:
Palestine...
I think Corbyn should call his new party Corbyn's Unionist, Nutters & Terrorist party. It has an oddly similar acronym to that that I suggested for Salmond.
All this talk about Sturgeon and Salmond is making me want to walk out the door of my humble abode here in Seattle, WA and keep on going down to the Locks, and check out the fish ladder.
Except it's wrong time of the year for salmon runs, so - no fish in the ladder to watch.
Instead, a zen exercise.
Happy memories of seeing the salmon in the aquarium near the Pike Street Market (?).
France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has warned that countries should not be "playing with blackmail" in the bid to get their populations vaccinated.
Le Drian also told French broadcaster FranceInfo that the UK had a problem with delivering second doses of vaccine. His comments come after an EU summit on Thursday to discuss the shortage of vaccines in Europe.
He was quizzed by the presenter as to whether Europe had been "scammed" by sending vaccines to the UK and not receiving any in return. He said that, while the UK took pride in having vaccinated a lot of people with their first jabs, they had a problem delivering the second.
-----
This is the clear dangerous and false narrative being pushed....its as dangerous as AZN is crap stuff. Its the sort of propaganda the GRU used on social media to cause such problems in the US.
I am not at all sure I understand this narrative about the UK having trouble with the second doses. Surely that problem only arises if both the Pfizer supply from Belgium is abruptly cut off and there's not enough already in storage to cover the olds' second appointment?
The inference might be that there isn't enough AZ but I would've thought that unlikely, given that it's produced domestically and half the Indian order was also successfully delivered recently. Presumably the worst case scenario on that front is that the bulk of production has to be reserved for second doses and Phase Two slows down a bit more?
The worrying part is that apparently senior people in the French government are reduced to hoping there is a problem. They are going negative in outlook.
I presume this is because their own outlook is negative. Which is then horrible for the French people.
Is there anything to stop, say, the Scottish Conservative party, not contesting the List, and instead entering a completely-separate-yet-strangely-similar "Conservative List" party, while instructing their supporters to vote for one in the seat election and the other in the List? If I've understood correctly, the resulting coalition of the two would have a fair amount more seats than if they just stood as one party, even if they lost some voters along the way due to confusion.
If not, why has no-one thought of this yet?
I guess the name could be ruled out as too similar, so they might have to find one that's dissimilar enough to pass that test.
Either way, this electoral system is moronic.
Or for that matter, Labour to stand candidates for the list, instructing all its supporters to vote for Cooperative Party candidates in the constituency seats.
France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has warned that countries should not be "playing with blackmail" in the bid to get their populations vaccinated.
Le Drian also told French broadcaster FranceInfo that the UK had a problem with delivering second doses of vaccine. His comments come after an EU summit on Thursday to discuss the shortage of vaccines in Europe.
He was quizzed by the presenter as to whether Europe had been "scammed" by sending vaccines to the UK and not receiving any in return. He said that, while the UK took pride in having vaccinated a lot of people with their first jabs, they had a problem delivering the second.
-----
This is the clear dangerous and false narrative being pushed....its as dangerous as AZN is crap stuff. Its the sort of propaganda the GRU used on social media to cause such problems in the US.
I am not at all sure I understand this narrative about the UK having trouble with the second doses. Surely that problem only arises if both the Pfizer supply from Belgium is abruptly cut off and there's not enough already in storage to cover the olds' second appointment?
The inference might be that there isn't enough AZ but I would've thought that unlikely, given that it's produced domestically and half the Indian order was also successfully delivered recently. Presumably the worst case scenario on that front is that the bulk of production has to be reserved for second doses and Phase Two slows down a bit more?
Your second paragraph is what is happening next month - emphasis on second doses and first doses for over 50s.
The actual daily rate will be fairly high - just that the rate of first jabs will be slow for a while.
Is there anything to stop, say, the Scottish Conservative party, not contesting the List, and instead entering a completely-separate-yet-strangely-similar "Conservative List" party, while instructing their supporters to vote for one in the seat election and the other in the List? If I've understood correctly, the resulting coalition of the two would have a fair amount more seats than if they just stood as one party, even if they lost some voters along the way due to confusion.
If not, why has no-one thought of this yet?
I guess the name could be ruled out as too similar, so they might have to find one that's dissimilar enough to pass that test.
Either way, this electoral system is moronic.
Or for that matter, Labour to stand candidates for the list, instructing all its supporters to vote for Cooperative Party candidates in the constituency seats.
I'd have just loved to have secretly bugged Nicola Sturgeon's room to hear all the swear words over the last 30 minutes.
Why would she swear? All those pro-Union top up seats are now in danger.
My question is, why don't they all vote Green anyway? If they're voting SNP-SNP they really don't understand the system very well. So if anything, this will may just split the Green list vote, which would only reduce the number of pro-independence MSPs.
The Greens and he SNP are strange bedfellows. The SNP spent decades building their case for independence on "Scottish" oil. Are the Scottish Greens in favour of closing the oil fields down in a post independence utopia?
Best thing about this is it could mean the nasty Greens being put in the dustbin where they belong
I find it hard to hold in just how repulsive the Greens are. They hold all the worst instincts of the LibDems. Vicious reactionary campaigning combined with the absolute authority in their mind that they are 100% correct.
I'd have just loved to have secretly bugged Nicola Sturgeon's room to hear all the swear words over the last 30 minutes.
Why would she swear? All those pro-Union top up seats are now in danger.
Maybe all parties need to split into Constituency and List versions?
Conservatives and Unionists, Liberals and Democrats, etc etc.
Or does it not quite work like that?
It only really benefits the party that cleans up in the constituency section. Today that's the SNP. When the system was chosen it was Labour.
Er, no, it doesn't - quite the reverse. It penalises them massively.
In the sense of being able to benefit from setting up a list-only mini-me party it's only a party that wins most of the constituency seats that can benefit from that ploy, because the system otherwise penalizes that party on the list.
There's no point Labour having a list-only party in Glasgow these days when they don't win any of the Glasgow constituency seats. No benefit from the split. See?
Ah, I'm with you - I'd read the split as being into two completely different parties (which surely it would on Electoral Commission regulations).
That's what I meant.
Surely any party winning a constituency seat would benefit from having an "arms length" mini-me list party, assuming parties standing in a constituency don't have to have a list.
Is there anything to stop, say, the Scottish Conservative party, not contesting the List, and instead entering a completely-separate-yet-strangely-similar "Conservative List" party, while instructing their supporters to vote for one in the seat election and the other in the List? If I've understood correctly, the resulting coalition of the two would have a fair amount more seats than if they just stood as one party, even if they lost some voters along the way due to confusion.
If not, why has no-one thought of this yet?
I guess the name could be ruled out as too similar, so they might have to find one that's dissimilar enough to pass that test.
Either way, this electoral system is moronic.
It was designed by Labour to keep them in charge of the devolved assemblies of Scotland and Wales for ever...oh, hang on...
Politico.eu - Merkel perfects the art of the political apology The German chancellor asked for forgiveness over a bungled plan to lockdown the country over Easter.
BERLIN — Who knew that Angela Merkel and Muhammad Ali were soulmates?
Backed into a COVID-19 corner by Berlin’s political pugilists this week, the visibly exhausted German leader caught her opponents off-guard with a sudden flash of unexpected genius, her own version of Ali’s legendary rope-a-dope: the “Merkel Culpa.”
“The mistake is my mistake alone,” Merkel told the Bundestag on Wednesday. “I ask both the public and you, dear colleagues, for forgiveness.”
Merkel said she was apologizing for a decision (since reversed) that she took earlier in the week to shut the country down for five days over Easter in order to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
Not that it really mattered much. The second Merkel stood up and asked for forgiveness, the reason for her apology was almost beside the point. For the next 24 hours, the news cycle was dominated by one issue — Merkel’s jaw-dropper of an apology. For good measure, Merkel granted a rare one-on-one interview to German public television to apologize again.
For the most part the reaction, from Paris to Madrid to Berlin, was one of heartfelt admiration and gratitude, even among her political opponents.
“This is a service to democracy,” declared Katrin Göring-Eckardt, co-leader of the Greens in parliament.
Political scientists may debate that conclusion, but there should be no doubt of the service Merkel did for her own agenda by fessing up.
In one fell swoop, Merkel both diverted attention away from the unpopular move to close over Easter, while shielding her political allies by taking the blame on her own shoulders.
Merkel’s appearance in parliament on Wednesday — one of only a handful of occasions MPs have during the year to directly ask her questions — promised to be an opportunity for the opposition to land punches over what many regard as the government’s mishandling of the pandemic response.
Instead, they found themselves swinging at air.
Even before she entered the chamber, Merkel stole the MPs’ thunder by apologizing first at a press conference. By the time she arrived at the Bundestag, the news was out. The chancellor then stood stone-faced, as one MP after another attacked her for things she’d already apologized for. To the average viewer, the opposition’s righteous grandstanding must have seemed gratuitous.
Few of the speakers seemed to realize the obvious — that Merkel had not only won the round, but the bout.
Merkel long ago established herself as a master tactician. What she proved this week is that even after 16 years in office, she’s still in a class of her own. . . .
Is there anything to stop, say, the Scottish Conservative party, not contesting the List, and instead entering a completely-separate-yet-strangely-similar "Conservative List" party, while instructing their supporters to vote for one in the seat election and the other in the List? If I've understood correctly, the resulting coalition of the two would have a fair amount more seats than if they just stood as one party, even if they lost some voters along the way due to confusion.
If not, why has no-one thought of this yet?
I guess the name could be ruled out as too similar, so they might have to find one that's dissimilar enough to pass that test.
Either way, this electoral system is moronic.
It is a remarkably hubristic achievement by Tony Blair, who choose different voting systems for Wales, Scotland & London so as to benefit Labour electorally.
Did New Labour not even understand that the disposition of vote might change?
Still, it is good to see a gerrymandering party get its come-uppance.
Today's Covid numbers are up. The seven day case average has finally started heading northwards again and the fall in the death count is marginally less precipitous, but still heavy.
Total deaths for today: 70. Total for the last seven days:489.
Local authority map shows mysterious cluster in West Lothian and larger, stubborn tracts of disease stretching broadly through West & South Yorks, North Lincs and also in the Fens. Most of country not too bad though.
It seems to me that you shouldn't be allowed to only stand for list seats.
Yes. I think that AMS is a bit silly with two separate votes. It would in some ways be better if the constituency votes were added up across the region to be used for the calculation of the top-up seats.
That was more or less the original German system used in 1949, with a single vote. It has some disadvantages in terms of voter choice - and what happens to the votes of unsuccessful independent candidates. It was replaced for the next election with the 2 vote system.
The current German system is kind of complicated, but tries to keep to strict proportionality for all the parties that meet the threshold (though I guess it would still be theoretically somewhat vulnerable to a determined attempt to use a decoy list). It does involve having a parliament that can vary in size from 598 to 897 - currently 709 members.
Isn't it time to update the German constitution for the modern era rather than it being formulated because of the fear of Nazis hiding under the bed? There was an obvious and well-founded fear in the late 40s / 50s that the Nazis could return to power, subvert democracy but surely you have passed that point. All the old Nazis are dead and the neo-Nazi movement has no chance of getting into power nor will it ever.
This is not taking a swipe for the sake of it but the way the German system is set up brings about a set of disadvantages. Corruption and cronyism for a start. How many scandals have there been involving German companies deliberately hiding data (eg VW) or knee deep in scandal (Deutsche Bank)? The claim that it all has to be hidden and kept away from the public because "it might encourage the Nazis" is getting a bit thin.
Well, I am overall quite a fan of the German constitution, it's pretty robustly written, and does have updates from time to time. Though there are a few things that I would definitely change if anyone asked me. They haven't so far, disappointingly. I was given a copy when I became a German citizen, but they haven't asked my opinion on it yet.
I'm not sure which bit of the German constitution is to blame for the Deutsche Bank or VW scandals (after all similar scandals happen in other countries with different constitutions), but I am open to persuasion.
Of course the German constitution was partly inspired by the US constitution, which unfortunately is hopelessly out-of-date and could really do with a big dose of the precise and clear writing of the German one.
As for the need to hinder the rise of a dictatorship, I would say that is still needed, and not just in Germany.
Politico.eu - Merkel perfects the art of the political apology The German chancellor asked for forgiveness over a bungled plan to lockdown the country over Easter.
BERLIN — Who knew that Angela Merkel and Muhammad Ali were soulmates?
Backed into a COVID-19 corner by Berlin’s political pugilists this week, the visibly exhausted German leader caught her opponents off-guard with a sudden flash of unexpected genius, her own version of Ali’s legendary rope-a-dope: the “Merkel Culpa.”
“The mistake is my mistake alone,” Merkel told the Bundestag on Wednesday. “I ask both the public and you, dear colleagues, for forgiveness.”
Merkel said she was apologizing for a decision (since reversed) that she took earlier in the week to shut the country down for five days over Easter in order to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
Not that it really mattered much. The second Merkel stood up and asked for forgiveness, the reason for her apology was almost beside the point. For the next 24 hours, the news cycle was dominated by one issue — Merkel’s jaw-dropper of an apology. For good measure, Merkel granted a rare one-on-one interview to German public television to apologize again.
For the most part the reaction, from Paris to Madrid to Berlin, was one of heartfelt admiration and gratitude, even among her political opponents.
“This is a service to democracy,” declared Katrin Göring-Eckardt, co-leader of the Greens in parliament.
Political scientists may debate that conclusion, but there should be no doubt of the service Merkel did for her own agenda by fessing up.
In one fell swoop, Merkel both diverted attention away from the unpopular move to close over Easter, while shielding her political allies by taking the blame on her own shoulders.
Merkel’s appearance in parliament on Wednesday — one of only a handful of occasions MPs have during the year to directly ask her questions — promised to be an opportunity for the opposition to land punches over what many regard as the government’s mishandling of the pandemic response.
Instead, they found themselves swinging at air.
Even before she entered the chamber, Merkel stole the MPs’ thunder by apologizing first at a press conference. By the time she arrived at the Bundestag, the news was out. The chancellor then stood stone-faced, as one MP after another attacked her for things she’d already apologized for. To the average viewer, the opposition’s righteous grandstanding must have seemed gratuitous.
Few of the speakers seemed to realize the obvious — that Merkel had not only won the round, but the bout.
Merkel long ago established herself as a master tactician. What she proved this week is that even after 16 years in office, she’s still in a class of her own. . . .
That’s my vote sorted. SNP for constituency. Personal vote for Kenny Gibson. Alba on list. Voted Chris McEleny for list selection, so delighted to still be able to vote for him, instead of the woke pushed to the top of the list after receiving about 4% of the votes.
Message for HYFUD. Last time I voted SNP 1 and 2. List vote was wasted. This time I hope to have helped select an additional independence MSP, rather than letting a unionist in.
This is bad news for the Scottish Greens, surely?
Every cloud etc... seeing the back of those prats would be welcome.
I'd have just loved to have secretly bugged Nicola Sturgeon's room to hear all the swear words over the last 30 minutes.
Why would she swear? All those pro-Union top up seats are now in danger.
Maybe all parties need to split into Constituency and List versions?
Conservatives and Unionists, Liberals and Democrats, etc etc.
Or does it not quite work like that?
It only really benefits the party that cleans up in the constituency section. Today that's the SNP. When the system was chosen it was Labour.
Er, no, it doesn't - quite the reverse. It penalises them massively.
In the sense of being able to benefit from setting up a list-only mini-me party it's only a party that wins most of the constituency seats that can benefit from that ploy, because the system otherwise penalizes that party on the list.
There's no point Labour having a list-only party in Glasgow these days when they don't win any of the Glasgow constituency seats. No benefit from the split. See?
Ah, I'm with you - I'd read the split as being into two completely different parties (which surely it would on Electoral Commission regulations).
That's what I meant.
Surely any party winning a constituency seat would benefit from having an "arms length" mini-me list party, assuming parties standing in a constituency don't have to have a list.
Is it possible to be at arm's length for the electoral legislation without losing control or upsetting people? If I were a rival to the party leader, I wouldn't want to be fobbed off with the list, if the main part of the party was in the constituency side.
I think this makes winning constituency seats super important for the Unionist parties. It's the only way to prevent the super-majority for Independence.
It's a big ask though. There are seven seats the SNP could gain on a swing of less than 2%. Winning all of them would give the SNP a majority in constituency seats alone. Only one that they could lose on the same swing.
I'd have just loved to have secretly bugged Nicola Sturgeon's room to hear all the swear words over the last 30 minutes.
Why would she swear? All those pro-Union top up seats are now in danger.
My question is, why don't they all vote Green anyway? If they're voting SNP-SNP they really don't understand the system very well. So if anything, this will may just split the Green list vote, which would only reduce the number of pro-independence MSPs.
The Greens and he SNP are strange bedfellows. The SNP spent decades building their case for independence on "Scottish" oil. Are the Scottish Greens in favour of closing the oil fields down in a post independence utopia?
Best thing about this is it could mean the nasty Greens being put in the dustbin where they belong
I find it hard to hold in just how repulsive the Greens are. They hold all the worst instincts of the LibDems. Vicious reactionary campaigning combined with the absolute authority in their mind that they are 100% correct.
Which Greens do you have in mind, BTW? The Scots ones, or the lot south of the border?
France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has warned that countries should not be "playing with blackmail" in the bid to get their populations vaccinated.
Le Drian also told French broadcaster FranceInfo that the UK had a problem with delivering second doses of vaccine. His comments come after an EU summit on Thursday to discuss the shortage of vaccines in Europe.
He was quizzed by the presenter as to whether Europe had been "scammed" by sending vaccines to the UK and not receiving any in return. He said that, while the UK took pride in having vaccinated a lot of people with their first jabs, they had a problem delivering the second.
-----
This is the clear dangerous and false narrative being pushed....its as dangerous as AZN is crap stuff. Its the sort of propaganda the GRU used on social media to cause such problems in the US.
I am not at all sure I understand this narrative about the UK having trouble with the second doses. Surely that problem only arises if both the Pfizer supply from Belgium is abruptly cut off and there's not enough already in storage to cover the olds' second appointment?
The inference might be that there isn't enough AZ but I would've thought that unlikely, given that it's produced domestically and half the Indian order was also successfully delivered recently. Presumably the worst case scenario on that front is that the bulk of production has to be reserved for second doses and Phase Two slows down a bit more?
I think this makes winning constituency seats super important for the Unionist parties. It's the only way to prevent the super-majority for Independence.
It's a big ask though. There are seven seats the SNP could gain on a swing of less than 2%. Winning all of them would give the SNP a majority in constituency seats alone. Only one that they could lose on the same swing.
Quite. After Brexit, too. Disaster for farming and fishing exports in prime Tory areas, too.
Politico.eu - Merkel perfects the art of the political apology The German chancellor asked for forgiveness over a bungled plan to lockdown the country over Easter.
BERLIN — Who knew that Angela Merkel and Muhammad Ali were soulmates?
Backed into a COVID-19 corner by Berlin’s political pugilists this week, the visibly exhausted German leader caught her opponents off-guard with a sudden flash of unexpected genius, her own version of Ali’s legendary rope-a-dope: the “Merkel Culpa.”
“The mistake is my mistake alone,” Merkel told the Bundestag on Wednesday. “I ask both the public and you, dear colleagues, for forgiveness.”
Merkel said she was apologizing for a decision (since reversed) that she took earlier in the week to shut the country down for five days over Easter in order to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
Not that it really mattered much. The second Merkel stood up and asked for forgiveness, the reason for her apology was almost beside the point. For the next 24 hours, the news cycle was dominated by one issue — Merkel’s jaw-dropper of an apology. For good measure, Merkel granted a rare one-on-one interview to German public television to apologize again.
For the most part the reaction, from Paris to Madrid to Berlin, was one of heartfelt admiration and gratitude, even among her political opponents.
“This is a service to democracy,” declared Katrin Göring-Eckardt, co-leader of the Greens in parliament.
Political scientists may debate that conclusion, but there should be no doubt of the service Merkel did for her own agenda by fessing up.
In one fell swoop, Merkel both diverted attention away from the unpopular move to close over Easter, while shielding her political allies by taking the blame on her own shoulders.
Merkel’s appearance in parliament on Wednesday — one of only a handful of occasions MPs have during the year to directly ask her questions — promised to be an opportunity for the opposition to land punches over what many regard as the government’s mishandling of the pandemic response.
Instead, they found themselves swinging at air.
Even before she entered the chamber, Merkel stole the MPs’ thunder by apologizing first at a press conference. By the time she arrived at the Bundestag, the news was out. The chancellor then stood stone-faced, as one MP after another attacked her for things she’d already apologized for. To the average viewer, the opposition’s righteous grandstanding must have seemed gratuitous.
Few of the speakers seemed to realize the obvious — that Merkel had not only won the round, but the bout.
Merkel long ago established herself as a master tactician. What she proved this week is that even after 16 years in office, she’s still in a class of her own. . . .
I wonder how many Unionist parties will get fewer MSPs than Alba?
Lib Dems nailed on?
No, the LDs will probably get about 8 MSPs and could also win the Caithness, Sutherland and Ross constituency MSP seat from the SNP which has a LD MP already
Want a bet? What odds will you give to Alba getting more seats than the Lib Dems?
EDIT: Seats not votes.
They will certainly get more constituency MSPs, I am not betting on the list
Considering Alba aren't even standing in the constituency seats that's a pretty safe remark.
Its the list that matters.
I don't suppose he trusts you for a bet since you tried to leg him over with that one on the EC for WH20.
France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has warned that countries should not be "playing with blackmail" in the bid to get their populations vaccinated.
Le Drian also told French broadcaster FranceInfo that the UK had a problem with delivering second doses of vaccine. His comments come after an EU summit on Thursday to discuss the shortage of vaccines in Europe.
He was quizzed by the presenter as to whether Europe had been "scammed" by sending vaccines to the UK and not receiving any in return. He said that, while the UK took pride in having vaccinated a lot of people with their first jabs, they had a problem delivering the second.
-----
This is the clear dangerous and false narrative being pushed....its as dangerous as AZN is crap stuff. Its the sort of propaganda the GRU used on social media to cause such problems in the US.
I am not at all sure I understand this narrative about the UK having trouble with the second doses. Surely that problem only arises if both the Pfizer supply from Belgium is abruptly cut off and there's not enough already in storage to cover the olds' second appointment?
The inference might be that there isn't enough AZ but I would've thought that unlikely, given that it's produced domestically and half the Indian order was also successfully delivered recently. Presumably the worst case scenario on that front is that the bulk of production has to be reserved for second doses and Phase Two slows down a bit more?
The worrying part is that apparently senior people in the French government are reduced to hoping there is a problem. They are going negative in outlook.
I presume this is because their own outlook is negative. Which is then horrible for the French people.
Yes, looking at those remarks more broadly it does appear very much like an instance of lashing out. France is collapsing backwards into lockdown in an eerily similar fashion to the UK back in December and, if reports are to be believed, Macron wanted a far harder line on exports to come out of yesterday's discussions but failed to get his way.
This may be a long shot but does anyone here have any experience with legal spend management? If so, I'd appreciate the opportunity to ask you a few questions.
That’s my vote sorted. SNP for constituency. Personal vote for Kenny Gibson. Alba on list. Voted Chris McEleny for list selection, so delighted to still be able to vote for him, instead of the woke pushed to the top of the list after receiving about 4% of the votes.
Message for HYFUD. Last time I voted SNP 1 and 2. List vote was wasted. This time I hope to have helped select an additional independence MSP, rather than letting a unionist in.
This is bad news for the Scottish Greens, surely?
Every cloud etc... seeing the back of those prats would be welcome.
Just like seeing the back of the Scottish Labour dominance.
Salmond is standing for a constituency seat in the NE, I gather, as an exception to the list-only rule.
Even if it does produce a wodge of pro-Indy Alba MSPs, I can't see them being willing to support Sturgeon in office, so it might help Sindy but not the SNP.
Labour and the Tories ought to be able to play this as "Don't vote for this shambles", but I'm not sure their dynamics are sufficient.
According to his own statement the Alba Party is list only. Salmond is probably on the North East List which is where the confusion may stem from.
I'd have just loved to have secretly bugged Nicola Sturgeon's room to hear all the swear words over the last 30 minutes.
Why would she swear? All those pro-Union top up seats are now in danger.
My question is, why don't they all vote Green anyway? If they're voting SNP-SNP they really don't understand the system very well. So if anything, this will may just split the Green list vote, which would only reduce the number of pro-independence MSPs.
The Greens and he SNP are strange bedfellows. The SNP spent decades building their case for independence on "Scottish" oil. Are the Scottish Greens in favour of closing the oil fields down in a post independence utopia?
Best thing about this is it could mean the nasty Greens being put in the dustbin where they belong
I find it hard to hold in just how repulsive the Greens are. They hold all the worst instincts of the LibDems. Vicious reactionary campaigning combined with the absolute authority in their mind that they are 100% correct.
Which Greens do you have in mind, BTW? The Scots ones, or the lot south of the border?
English. I haven't experienced the Scots variant.
They believe the world is going to end, only they have the one true path to salvation, collateral damage is unimportant.
What is remarkable is how many ticks they hit with older people who dont want new houses built, new industry and jobs brought to an area. They are the perfect vehicle for nimbyism.
I think this makes winning constituency seats super important for the Unionist parties. It's the only way to prevent the super-majority for Independence.
It's a big ask though. There are seven seats the SNP could gain on a swing of less than 2%. Winning all of them would give the SNP a majority in constituency seats alone. Only one that they could lose on the same swing.
Wow.
Not going to happen but an SNP majority on constituency seats, combined with the Alba party taking regional seats away from the unionists ... That really would be remarkable.
Interesting. I can't see much of a downside for the pro independence parties. The Tories and Labour did themselves no favours in their opportunistic attacks prejudging the Sturgeon enquiry. In advertising terms multiple companies selling the same product helps the market leader which in this instance is the SNP. All in all good news for the separatists I'd say
I wonder how many Unionist parties will get fewer MSPs than Alba?
Lib Dems nailed on?
No, the LDs will probably get about 8 MSPs and could also win the Caithness, Sutherland and Ross constituency MSP seat from the SNP which has a LD MP already
Want a bet? What odds will you give to Alba getting more seats than the Lib Dems?
EDIT: Seats not votes.
They will certainly get more constituency MSPs, I am not betting on the list
Considering Alba aren't even standing in the constituency seats that's a pretty safe remark.
Its the list that matters.
I don't suppose he trusts you for a bet since you tried to leg him over with that one on the EC for WH20.
Isn't that just a case in point that predictions of extremely efficient tactical voting are always overdone?
If they got roughly 1 in 8 of the yes list votes it would be 8 list seats , 1 in 2 would give them 24 list seats
You going to stand Malcolm?
I can see Alba be rather more pro business and business friendly than the SNP and that would seem to suit you well. Sturgeon's march to the centre left has been a strategic masterstroke in that she has replaced the Labour party but Salmond was much more centrist in his views which caused the Tories more of an issue.
Scotland needs independence like a hole in the head right now but an independence led by Sturgeon and her cabal of economic illiterates would give England a significant refugee problem.
Politico.eu - Merkel perfects the art of the political apology The German chancellor asked for forgiveness over a bungled plan to lockdown the country over Easter.
BERLIN — Who knew that Angela Merkel and Muhammad Ali were soulmates?
Backed into a COVID-19 corner by Berlin’s political pugilists this week, the visibly exhausted German leader caught her opponents off-guard with a sudden flash of unexpected genius, her own version of Ali’s legendary rope-a-dope: the “Merkel Culpa.”
“The mistake is my mistake alone,” Merkel told the Bundestag on Wednesday. “I ask both the public and you, dear colleagues, for forgiveness.”
Merkel said she was apologizing for a decision (since reversed) that she took earlier in the week to shut the country down for five days over Easter in order to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
Not that it really mattered much. The second Merkel stood up and asked for forgiveness, the reason for her apology was almost beside the point. For the next 24 hours, the news cycle was dominated by one issue — Merkel’s jaw-dropper of an apology. For good measure, Merkel granted a rare one-on-one interview to German public television to apologize again.
For the most part the reaction, from Paris to Madrid to Berlin, was one of heartfelt admiration and gratitude, even among her political opponents.
“This is a service to democracy,” declared Katrin Göring-Eckardt, co-leader of the Greens in parliament.
Political scientists may debate that conclusion, but there should be no doubt of the service Merkel did for her own agenda by fessing up.
In one fell swoop, Merkel both diverted attention away from the unpopular move to close over Easter, while shielding her political allies by taking the blame on her own shoulders.
Merkel’s appearance in parliament on Wednesday — one of only a handful of occasions MPs have during the year to directly ask her questions — promised to be an opportunity for the opposition to land punches over what many regard as the government’s mishandling of the pandemic response.
Instead, they found themselves swinging at air.
Even before she entered the chamber, Merkel stole the MPs’ thunder by apologizing first at a press conference. By the time she arrived at the Bundestag, the news was out. The chancellor then stood stone-faced, as one MP after another attacked her for things she’d already apologized for. To the average viewer, the opposition’s righteous grandstanding must have seemed gratuitous.
Few of the speakers seemed to realize the obvious — that Merkel had not only won the round, but the bout.
Merkel long ago established herself as a master tactician. What she proved this week is that even after 16 years in office, she’s still in a class of her own. . . .
There's probably a thesis to be written on the art of the political apology and how in many instances voters think more of the apologiser afterwards. I find it strange that so many politicians are resistant to saying sorry, ever.
I'd have just loved to have secretly bugged Nicola Sturgeon's room to hear all the swear words over the last 30 minutes.
Why would she swear? All those pro-Union top up seats are now in danger.
My question is, why don't they all vote Green anyway? If they're voting SNP-SNP they really don't understand the system very well. So if anything, this will may just split the Green list vote, which would only reduce the number of pro-independence MSPs.
The Greens and he SNP are strange bedfellows. The SNP spent decades building their case for independence on "Scottish" oil. Are the Scottish Greens in favour of closing the oil fields down in a post independence utopia?
Best thing about this is it could mean the nasty Greens being put in the dustbin where they belong
I find it hard to hold in just how repulsive the Greens are. They hold all the worst instincts of the LibDems. Vicious reactionary campaigning combined with the absolute authority in their mind that they are 100% correct.
Which Greens do you have in mind, BTW? The Scots ones, or the lot south of the border?
English. I haven't experienced the Scots variant.
They believe the world is going to end, only they have the one true path to salvation, collateral damage is unimportant.
What is remarkable is how many ticks they hit with older people who dont want new houses built, new industry and jobs brought to an area. They are the perfect vehicle for nimbyism.
I wonder how many Unionist parties will get fewer MSPs than Alba?
Lib Dems nailed on?
The LibDems hold five constituency seats in the Scottish Parliament, and no list seats. Given the SNP is the opponents in each of these, one would expect tactical voting to see them home.
There are 56 list elected MPs, of which 5 are Green. The top up system only benefits those who don't really have constituency bases. If Alba were to get 10% of the list vote, entirely from the SNP, you'd expect them to get 6 to 9 seats.
My guess is that the Greens will lose 3 of their 5 seats, and Alba will take about a dozen. So that's nine Unionists that will lose their seats, which I'd guess will split 6 Labour, 3 Conservative.
Isn't that just a case in point that predictions of extremely efficient tactical voting are always overdone?
If they got roughly 1 in 8 of the yes list votes it would be 8 list seats , 1 in 2 would give them 24 list seats
You going to stand Malcolm?
I can see Alba be rather more pro business and business friendly than the SNP and that would seem to suit you well. Sturgeon's march to the centre left has been a strategic masterstroke in that she has replaced the Labour party but Salmond was much more centrist in his views which caused the Tories more of an issue.
Scotland needs independence like a hole in the head right now but an independence led by Sturgeon and her cabal of economic illiterates would give England a significant refugee problem.
Isn't that just a case in point that predictions of extremely efficient tactical voting are always overdone?
If they got roughly 1 in 8 of the yes list votes it would be 8 list seats , 1 in 2 would give them 24 list seats
You going to stand Malcolm?
I can see Alba be rather more pro business and business friendly than the SNP and that would seem to suit you well. Sturgeon's march to the centre left has been a strategic masterstroke in that she has replaced the Labour party but Salmond was much more centrist in his views which caused the Tories more of an issue.
Scotland needs independence like a hole in the head right now but an independence led by Sturgeon and her cabal of economic illiterates would give England a significant refugee problem.
So might Alba pick votes from Tories disillusioned with current Toryism?
Isn't that just a case in point that predictions of extremely efficient tactical voting are always overdone?
If they got roughly 1 in 8 of the yes list votes it would be 8 list seats , 1 in 2 would give them 24 list seats
You going to stand Malcolm?
I can see Alba be rather more pro business and business friendly than the SNP and that would seem to suit you well. Sturgeon's march to the centre left has been a strategic masterstroke in that she has replaced the Labour party but Salmond was much more centrist in his views which caused the Tories more of an issue.
Scotland needs independence like a hole in the head right now but an independence led by Sturgeon and her cabal of economic illiterates would give England a significant refugee problem.
So might Alba pick votes from Tories disillusioned with current Toryism?
Brexit is certainly a factor to consider.
Edit: and Mr Johnson. Amazing how mamny Scots regard him as a clown (and not in a joking way, but deadly serious, even the right wing old fart reactionaries aged 80+).
Isn't that just a case in point that predictions of extremely efficient tactical voting are always overdone?
If they got roughly 1 in 8 of the yes list votes it would be 8 list seats , 1 in 2 would give them 24 list seats
You going to stand Malcolm?
I can see Alba be rather more pro business and business friendly than the SNP and that would seem to suit you well. Sturgeon's march to the centre left has been a strategic masterstroke in that she has replaced the Labour party but Salmond was much more centrist in his views which caused the Tories more of an issue.
Scotland needs independence like a hole in the head right now but an independence led by Sturgeon and her cabal of economic illiterates would give England a significant refugee problem.
So might Alba pick votes from Tories disillusioned with current Toryism?
Possibly. Salmond will be fishing for votes in the North East, that is for sure (pun absolutely intended).
I'd have just loved to have secretly bugged Nicola Sturgeon's room to hear all the swear words over the last 30 minutes.
Why would she swear? All those pro-Union top up seats are now in danger.
Maybe all parties need to split into Constituency and List versions?
Conservatives and Unionists, Liberals and Democrats, etc etc.
Or does it not quite work like that?
It only really benefits the party that cleans up in the constituency section. Today that's the SNP. When the system was chosen it was Labour.
Er, no, it doesn't - quite the reverse. It penalises them massively.
In the sense of being able to benefit from setting up a list-only mini-me party it's only a party that wins most of the constituency seats that can benefit from that ploy, because the system otherwise penalizes that party on the list.
There's no point Labour having a list-only party in Glasgow these days when they don't win any of the Glasgow constituency seats. No benefit from the split. See?
Ah, I'm with you - I'd read the split as being into two completely different parties (which surely it would on Electoral Commission regulations).
That's what I meant.
Surely any party winning a constituency seat would benefit from having an "arms length" mini-me list party, assuming parties standing in a constituency don't have to have a list.
Theoretically, yes, but in practice even if implemented perfectly (no loss of votes) the benefit is much larger the more constituency seats are won - because the design intent of the top-up seats is to correct disproportionality in the constituency seats, and it can't do that if the main winners from the FPTP bit don't play.
There's a much greater risk for the smaller parties of mucking it all up and ending up with fewer seats.
Isn't that just a case in point that predictions of extremely efficient tactical voting are always overdone?
If they got roughly 1 in 8 of the yes list votes it would be 8 list seats , 1 in 2 would give them 24 list seats
You going to stand Malcolm?
I can see Alba be rather more pro business and business friendly than the SNP and that would seem to suit you well. Sturgeon's march to the centre left has been a strategic masterstroke in that she has replaced the Labour party but Salmond was much more centrist in his views which caused the Tories more of an issue.
Scotland needs independence like a hole in the head right now but an independence led by Sturgeon and her cabal of economic illiterates would give England a significant refugee problem.
Refugees heading north or south? 🤔
Well if they need social services, a health service or want an education for their kids, south. An East German style regime might attract the odd nutter from Liverpool or London I suppose.
Is there anything to stop, say, the Scottish Conservative party, not contesting the List, and instead entering a completely-separate-yet-strangely-similar "Conservative List" party, while instructing their supporters to vote for one in the seat election and the other in the List? If I've understood correctly, the resulting coalition of the two would have a fair amount more seats than if they just stood as one party, even if they lost some voters along the way due to confusion.
If not, why has no-one thought of this yet?
I guess the name could be ruled out as too similar, so they might have to find one that's dissimilar enough to pass that test.
Either way, this electoral system is moronic.
It wouldn't help much (if at all), because the list system is structured to benefit those parties that did not reach their proportional share in the constituency vote.
I wonder how many Unionist parties will get fewer MSPs than Alba?
Lib Dems nailed on?
No, the LDs will probably get about 8 MSPs and could also win the Caithness, Sutherland and Ross constituency MSP seat from the SNP which has a LD MP already
Want a bet? What odds will you give to Alba getting more seats than the Lib Dems?
EDIT: Seats not votes.
They will certainly get more constituency MSPs, I am not betting on the list
Considering Alba aren't even standing in the constituency seats that's a pretty safe remark.
Its the list that matters.
I don't suppose he trusts you for a bet since you tried to leg him over with that one on the EC for WH20.
What are you talking about? I did no such thing.
You got him to do a bet where his odds were worse than the bookies were offering. Do you not remember? I do. It was on the EC being closer than last time. I tried to intervene at the time and have it voided but was ignored (as usual). Ironically the bet ended up being void anyway because the margin was equal to last time. Do you not remember? I do.
Afternoon troops, thought it time I returned to upset lots of you. I have to say when I saw yesterday that Cherrybums was intending to spend more time at home with her mental health or suchlike, it occurred to me that the Salmondistas must be on the move. I really hope we get a TV debate with Salmond v Sturgeon plus of course the other 4.
Today's Covid numbers are up. The seven day case average has finally started heading northwards again and the fall in the death count is marginally less precipitous, but still heavy.
Total deaths for today: 70. Total for the last seven days:489.
Local authority map shows mysterious cluster in West Lothian and larger, stubborn tracts of disease stretching broadly through West & South Yorks, North Lincs and also in the Fens. Most of country not too bad though.
Second dose total is now just past three million.
There was some delayed reporting of cases from an NHS Lothian lab, which may explain the West Lothian cluster if the map is driven by report date data.
@dixiedean was down your ends today. The Pudding Parlour in Prudhoe is 🤌
Glad you liked it! Pudding Parlour lady is my in laws neighbour. It's grown PDQ. I believe there are 4 now. Edit: Not sure if the one in the Grainger Market ever opened. Was planned pre-Covid.
I saw the reference to the LibDems taking my home seat Caithness, Sutherland and Ross. The popular SNP MSP Gail Ross is standing down to spend more time with her daughter and she is being replaced as candidate by Maree Todd the SNP list MSP for Highlands and Islands. Maree Todd is not from the constituency as she is an Ullapool girl and she has had nothing like Gail Ross' profile. The LibDem candidate, wee Molly is being punted non-stop and I think I have had in excess of 10 election leaflets dressed up as LibDem constituency news etc over the past few months and begging letters for support too. I think she could just take the seat from the SNP. Between 2011 and 2016 the SNP majority halved and the LibDems have over 8000 SCon/SLAB voters to persuade to lend them a constituency vote to oust the SNP. Definitely one to watch.
Politico.eu - Merkel perfects the art of the political apology The German chancellor asked for forgiveness over a bungled plan to lockdown the country over Easter.
BERLIN — Who knew that Angela Merkel and Muhammad Ali were soulmates?
Backed into a COVID-19 corner by Berlin’s political pugilists this week, the visibly exhausted German leader caught her opponents off-guard with a sudden flash of unexpected genius, her own version of Ali’s legendary rope-a-dope: the “Merkel Culpa.”
“The mistake is my mistake alone,” Merkel told the Bundestag on Wednesday. “I ask both the public and you, dear colleagues, for forgiveness.”
Merkel said she was apologizing for a decision (since reversed) that she took earlier in the week to shut the country down for five days over Easter in order to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
Not that it really mattered much. The second Merkel stood up and asked for forgiveness, the reason for her apology was almost beside the point. For the next 24 hours, the news cycle was dominated by one issue — Merkel’s jaw-dropper of an apology. For good measure, Merkel granted a rare one-on-one interview to German public television to apologize again.
For the most part the reaction, from Paris to Madrid to Berlin, was one of heartfelt admiration and gratitude, even among her political opponents.
“This is a service to democracy,” declared Katrin Göring-Eckardt, co-leader of the Greens in parliament.
Political scientists may debate that conclusion, but there should be no doubt of the service Merkel did for her own agenda by fessing up.
In one fell swoop, Merkel both diverted attention away from the unpopular move to close over Easter, while shielding her political allies by taking the blame on her own shoulders.
Merkel’s appearance in parliament on Wednesday — one of only a handful of occasions MPs have during the year to directly ask her questions — promised to be an opportunity for the opposition to land punches over what many regard as the government’s mishandling of the pandemic response.
Instead, they found themselves swinging at air.
Even before she entered the chamber, Merkel stole the MPs’ thunder by apologizing first at a press conference. By the time she arrived at the Bundestag, the news was out. The chancellor then stood stone-faced, as one MP after another attacked her for things she’d already apologized for. To the average viewer, the opposition’s righteous grandstanding must have seemed gratuitous.
Few of the speakers seemed to realize the obvious — that Merkel had not only won the round, but the bout.
Merkel long ago established herself as a master tactician. What she proved this week is that even after 16 years in office, she’s still in a class of her own. . . .
There's probably a thesis to be written on the art of the political apology and how in many instances voters think more of the apologiser afterwards. I find it strange that so many politicians are resistant to saying sorry, ever.
Even a recent Scottish situation I can think of..
Yep, the "Hugh Grant" can really work in politics, and AS could definitely have given it a whirl.
Merkel, not my politics, her being centre right, but I'm a massive fan. We would not go far wrong if all politicians were of that substance and quality.
Unfortunately we have ... well, I'll leave it there.
Afternoon troops, thought it time I returned to upset lots of you. I have to say when I saw yesterday that Cherrybums was intending to spend more time at home with her mental health or suchlike, it occurred to me that the Salmondistas must be on the move. I really hope we get a TV debate with Salmond v Sturgeon plus of course the other 4.
@dixiedean was down your ends today. The Pudding Parlour in Prudhoe is 🤌
Glad you liked it! Pudding Parlour lady is my in laws neighbour. It's grown PDQ. I believe there are 4 now. Edit: Not sure if the one in the Grainger Market ever opened. Was planned pre-Covid.
The one in Morpeth closed, unfortunately!
Probably a good thing for them to be saving the, I imagine, extortionate rent.
That’s my vote sorted. SNP for constituency. Personal vote for Kenny Gibson. Alba on list. Voted Chris McEleny for list selection, so delighted to still be able to vote for him, instead of the woke pushed to the top of the list after receiving about 4% of the votes.
Message for HYFUD. Last time I voted SNP 1 and 2. List vote was wasted. This time I hope to have helped select an additional independence MSP, rather than letting a unionist in.
This is bad news for the Scottish Greens, surely?
And unionists, having a constituency specialist and a list specialist that are two different parties would allow for independence voters to win a huge majority in Holyrood with well under 50% of the vote.
Which is why they'll be ignored.
Boris isn't going to dance just because the nationalists have played split-ticket games under MMS voting.
I wonder how many Unionist parties will get fewer MSPs than Alba?
Lib Dems nailed on?
The LibDems hold five constituency seats in the Scottish Parliament, and no list seats. Given the SNP is the opponents in each of these, one would expect tactical voting to see them home.
There are 56 list elected MPs, of which 5 are Green. The top up system only benefits those who don't really have constituency bases. If Alba were to get 10% of the list vote, entirely from the SNP, you'd expect them to get 6 to 9 seats.
My guess is that the Greens will lose 3 of their 5 seats, and Alba will take about a dozen. So that's nine Unionists that will lose their seats, which I'd guess will split 6 Labour, 3 Conservative.
That’s my vote sorted. SNP for constituency. Personal vote for Kenny Gibson. Alba on list. Voted Chris McEleny for list selection, so delighted to still be able to vote for him, instead of the woke pushed to the top of the list after receiving about 4% of the votes.
Message for HYFUD. Last time I voted SNP 1 and 2. List vote was wasted. This time I hope to have helped select an additional independence MSP, rather than letting a unionist in.
This is bad news for the Scottish Greens, surely?
And unionists, having a constituency specialist and a list specialist that are two different parties would allow for independence voters to win a huge majority in Holyrood with well under 50% of the vote.
And Boris will just say "under 50% of the vote" - and carry on regardless. With a Royal Commission set to examine so many parameters it will be punted into the elephant grass.
So, Labour well and truly in play at a time of almost zero visibility for them, and of peak vaccine triumph for a Tory government who's main policy of Brexit is looking vindicated to all but the ever diminishing ranks of the cognescenti.
Starmer will be feeling like the cat with the cream.
Well the big difference is always the Labour score....there used to be the golden rule, take the lowest Labour score among a range of polls.
Besides which, Labour is now structurally disadvantaged when contesting general elections. In 2005 Tony Blair outpolled Michael Howard by 2.8% and won a comfortable Parliamentary majority. By 2017 Theresa May only beat Jeremy Corbyn by 2.4% and still finished more than 50 seats ahead of Labour. The implosion of the Liberal Democrats, then of the Scottish Labour Party and finally of the Red Wall (with what's left of Labour's support now largely stacked up in the big cities or too thinly spread elsewhere to get out of second place,) has really crippled them.
Yes, I think the structural outlook for Labour is bleak. If you look at the "big themes" of politics that tend to dominate politics and influence votes (religion, class etc), they tend to influence voting for several decades. We are hardly in to the start of the trend where views on culture are the determinant factor of voting. It's hard to see Labour breaking out of the cities. The possible exception might be if professional graduates moved out of cities and into more rural / suburban areas but that is not guaranteed and will take time.
There aren't enough of them, and once out of the habitat it is easier to see how ludicrous and out of touch the party membership/'Tories are scum' brigade really are. Labour's greatest support is in enclaves with deep inconsistencies between their viewpoints. While of course they have large support across the country both from their declining (and entirely worthy of respect) traditional base and from enclave members, nonetheless throughout rural and small town England they function as the alternative Liberal Democrats - a very decent number of votes but approximately zero seats.
Only the Tories have genuine 'spectrum' support in sufficient numbers to win enough middling seats from voters who have things in common with each other.
That’s my vote sorted. SNP for constituency. Personal vote for Kenny Gibson. Alba on list. Voted Chris McEleny for list selection, so delighted to still be able to vote for him, instead of the woke pushed to the top of the list after receiving about 4% of the votes.
Message for HYFUD. Last time I voted SNP 1 and 2. List vote was wasted. This time I hope to have helped select an additional independence MSP, rather than letting a unionist in.
This is bad news for the Scottish Greens, surely?
And unionists, having a constituency specialist and a list specialist that are two different parties would allow for independence voters to win a huge majority in Holyrood with well under 50% of the vote.
Which is why they'll be ignored.
Boris isn't going to dance just because the nationalists have played split-ticket games under MMS voting.
He would ignore them under any circumstances. He doesn't want to be the Prime Minister who lost Scotland. Somebody else can do that.
That’s my vote sorted. SNP for constituency. Personal vote for Kenny Gibson. Alba on list. Voted Chris McEleny for list selection, so delighted to still be able to vote for him, instead of the woke pushed to the top of the list after receiving about 4% of the votes.
Message for HYFUD. Last time I voted SNP 1 and 2. List vote was wasted. This time I hope to have helped select an additional independence MSP, rather than letting a unionist in.
This is bad news for the Scottish Greens, surely?
And unionists, having a constituency specialist and a list specialist that are two different parties would allow for independence voters to win a huge majority in Holyrood with well under 50% of the vote.
Which is why they'll be ignored.
Boris isn't going to dance just because the nationalists have played split-ticket games under MMS voting.
He would ignore them under any circumstances. He doesn't want to be the Prime Minister who lost Scotland. Somebody else can do that.
But the danger is, as I keep telling @HYUFD, that in his desperation not to be the PM who "loses Scotland", he makes it more likely to happen.
A classic case of self-interest vs the national interest.
Isn't that just a case in point that predictions of extremely efficient tactical voting are always overdone?
If they got roughly 1 in 8 of the yes list votes it would be 8 list seats , 1 in 2 would give them 24 list seats
You going to stand Malcolm?
I can see Alba be rather more pro business and business friendly than the SNP and that would seem to suit you well. Sturgeon's march to the centre left has been a strategic masterstroke in that she has replaced the Labour party but Salmond was much more centrist in his views which caused the Tories more of an issue.
Scotland needs independence like a hole in the head right now but an independence led by Sturgeon and her cabal of economic illiterates would give England a significant refugee problem.
I need information if I'm to know whether what Alex Salmond says has any plausibility. I know that 73 SMPs are elected in constituencies, 56 by regions (7 each in each of 8 regions). But what explains why the SNP has done so much better in constituencies than in the regional votes?
I need information if I'm to know whether what Alex Salmond says has any plausibility. I know that 73 SMPs are elected in constituencies, 56 by regions (7 each in each of 8 regions). But what explains why the SNP has done so much better in constituencies than in the regional votes?
Because the modified d'Hondt voting system was devised to penalise parties who do well in the constituencies. Also because people recognise this to some extent and e.g. modify their voting.
It's a high-risk option (and wouldn't happen in time for May, obviously) but the UK Government could simply amend the Scotland Act 1998 by simple majority if the MMS is deemed to be unrepresentative and subject to gaming.
So, Labour well and truly in play at a time of almost zero visibility for them, and of peak vaccine triumph for a Tory government who's main policy of Brexit is looking vindicated to all but the ever diminishing ranks of the cognescenti.
Starmer will be feeling like the cat with the cream.
Well the big difference is always the Labour score....there used to be the golden rule, take the lowest Labour score among a range of polls.
Besides which, Labour is now structurally disadvantaged when contesting general elections. In 2005 Tony Blair outpolled Michael Howard by 2.8% and won a comfortable Parliamentary majority. By 2017 Theresa May only beat Jeremy Corbyn by 2.4% and still finished more than 50 seats ahead of Labour. The implosion of the Liberal Democrats, then of the Scottish Labour Party and finally of the Red Wall (with what's left of Labour's support now largely stacked up in the big cities or too thinly spread elsewhere to get out of second place,) has really crippled them.
Yes, I think the structural outlook for Labour is bleak. If you look at the "big themes" of politics that tend to dominate politics and influence votes (religion, class etc), they tend to influence voting for several decades. We are hardly in to the start of the trend where views on culture are the determinant factor of voting. It's hard to see Labour breaking out of the cities. The possible exception might be if professional graduates moved out of cities and into more rural / suburban areas but that is not guaranteed and will take time.
There aren't enough of them, and once out of the habitat it is easier to see how ludicrous and out of touch the party membership/'Tories are scum' brigade really are. Labour's greatest support is in enclaves with deep inconsistencies between their viewpoints. While of course they have large support across the country both from their declining (and entirely worthy of respect) traditional base and from enclave members, nonetheless throughout rural and small town England they function as the alternative Liberal Democrats - a very decent number of votes but approximately zero seats.
Only the Tories have genuine 'spectrum' support in sufficient numbers to win enough middling seats from voters who have things in common with each other.
Many on the left, whether in the UK or the US, suffer from the same delusion namely they think that, as professional graduate types, (1) only they know what is right and (2) that everyone else not only is less important but also is too stupid to notice their hypocrisy on a wide range of issues. They epitomise Socrates' statement in his trial that "the most stupid people in the world are those who think they know everything"
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If not, why has no-one thought of this yet?
I guess the name could be ruled out as too similar, so they might have to find one that's dissimilar enough to pass that test.
Either way, this electoral system is moronic.
This is not taking a swipe for the sake of it but the way the German system is set up brings about a set of disadvantages. Corruption and cronyism for a start. How many scandals have there been involving German companies deliberately hiding data (eg VW) or knee deep in scandal (Deutsche Bank)? The claim that it all has to be hidden and kept away from the public because "it might encourage the Nazis" is getting a bit thin.
Its the list that matters.
Galling.
The inference might be that there isn't enough AZ but I would've thought that unlikely, given that it's produced domestically and half the Indian order was also successfully delivered recently. Presumably the worst case scenario on that front is that the bulk of production has to be reserved for second doses and Phase Two slows down a bit more?
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1375453275965775877
I presume this is because their own outlook is negative. Which is then horrible for the French people.
And yes, it is an utterly moronic system.
The actual daily rate will be fairly high - just that the rate of first jabs will be slow for a while.
Surely any party winning a constituency seat would benefit from having an "arms length" mini-me list party, assuming parties standing in a constituency don't have to have a list.
The German chancellor asked for forgiveness over a bungled plan to lockdown the country over Easter.
BERLIN — Who knew that Angela Merkel and Muhammad Ali were soulmates?
Backed into a COVID-19 corner by Berlin’s political pugilists this week, the visibly exhausted German leader caught her opponents off-guard with a sudden flash of unexpected genius, her own version of Ali’s legendary rope-a-dope: the “Merkel Culpa.”
“The mistake is my mistake alone,” Merkel told the Bundestag on Wednesday. “I ask both the public and you, dear colleagues, for forgiveness.”
Merkel said she was apologizing for a decision (since reversed) that she took earlier in the week to shut the country down for five days over Easter in order to slow the spread of the coronavirus.
Not that it really mattered much. The second Merkel stood up and asked for forgiveness, the reason for her apology was almost beside the point. For the next 24 hours, the news cycle was dominated by one issue — Merkel’s jaw-dropper of an apology. For good measure, Merkel granted a rare one-on-one interview to German public television to apologize again.
For the most part the reaction, from Paris to Madrid to Berlin, was one of heartfelt admiration and gratitude, even among her political opponents.
“This is a service to democracy,” declared Katrin Göring-Eckardt, co-leader of the Greens in parliament.
Political scientists may debate that conclusion, but there should be no doubt of the service Merkel did for her own agenda by fessing up.
In one fell swoop, Merkel both diverted attention away from the unpopular move to close over Easter, while shielding her political allies by taking the blame on her own shoulders.
Merkel’s appearance in parliament on Wednesday — one of only a handful of occasions MPs have during the year to directly ask her questions — promised to be an opportunity for the opposition to land punches over what many regard as the government’s mishandling of the pandemic response.
Instead, they found themselves swinging at air.
Even before she entered the chamber, Merkel stole the MPs’ thunder by apologizing first at a press conference. By the time she arrived at the Bundestag, the news was out. The chancellor then stood stone-faced, as one MP after another attacked her for things she’d already apologized for. To the average viewer, the opposition’s righteous grandstanding must have seemed gratuitous.
Few of the speakers seemed to realize the obvious — that Merkel had not only won the round, but the bout.
Merkel long ago established herself as a master tactician. What she proved this week is that even after 16 years in office, she’s still in a class of her own. . . .
https://www.politico.eu/article/german-chancellor-angela-merkel-perfects-the-art-of-the-political-apology/
Did New Labour not even understand that the disposition of vote might change?
Still, it is good to see a gerrymandering party get its come-uppance.
Total deaths for today: 70. Total for the last seven days:489.
Local authority map shows mysterious cluster in West Lothian and larger, stubborn tracts of disease stretching broadly through West & South Yorks, North Lincs and also in the Fens. Most of country not too bad though.
Second dose total is now just past three million.
I'm not sure which bit of the German constitution is to blame for the Deutsche Bank or VW scandals (after all similar scandals happen in other countries with different constitutions), but I am open to persuasion.
Of course the German constitution was partly inspired by the US constitution, which unfortunately is hopelessly out-of-date and could really do with a big dose of the precise and clear writing of the German one.
As for the need to hinder the rise of a dictatorship, I would say that is still needed, and not just in Germany.
I was joking...
It's a big ask though. There are seven seats the SNP could gain on a swing of less than 2%. Winning all of them would give the SNP a majority in constituency seats alone. Only one that they could lose on the same swing.
They believe the world is going to end, only they have the one true path to salvation, collateral damage is unimportant.
What is remarkable is how many ticks they hit with older people who dont want new houses built, new industry and jobs brought to an area. They are the perfect vehicle for nimbyism.
Not going to happen but an SNP majority on constituency seats, combined with the Alba party taking regional seats away from the unionists ... That really would be remarkable.
I can see Alba be rather more pro business and business friendly than the SNP and that would seem to suit you well. Sturgeon's march to the centre left has been a strategic masterstroke in that she has replaced the Labour party but Salmond was much more centrist in his views which caused the Tories more of an issue.
Scotland needs independence like a hole in the head right now but an independence led by Sturgeon and her cabal of economic illiterates would give England a significant refugee problem.
Even a recent Scottish situation I can think of..
There are 56 list elected MPs, of which 5 are Green. The top up system only benefits those who don't really have constituency bases. If Alba were to get 10% of the list vote, entirely from the SNP, you'd expect them to get 6 to 9 seats.
My guess is that the Greens will lose 3 of their 5 seats, and Alba will take about a dozen. So that's nine Unionists that will lose their seats, which I'd guess will split 6 Labour, 3 Conservative.
Edit: and Mr Johnson. Amazing how mamny Scots regard him as a clown (and not in a joking way, but deadly serious, even the right wing old fart reactionaries aged 80+).
There's a much greater risk for the smaller parties of mucking it all up and ending up with fewer seats.
Pudding Parlour lady is my in laws neighbour. It's grown PDQ.
I believe there are 4 now.
Edit: Not sure if the one in the Grainger Market ever opened. Was planned pre-Covid.
Post Indy, Alba replaces the Scons.
I recon
Merkel, not my politics, her being centre right, but I'm a massive fan. We would not go far wrong if all politicians were of that substance and quality.
Unfortunately we have ... well, I'll leave it there.
Probably a good thing for them to be saving the, I imagine, extortionate rent.
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Boris isn't going to dance just because the nationalists have played split-ticket games under MMS voting.
Only the Tories have genuine 'spectrum' support in sufficient numbers to win enough middling seats from voters who have things in common with each other.
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1375085232605564930
A classic case of self-interest vs the national interest.
Interesting times.
I know that 73 SMPs are elected in constituencies, 56 by regions (7 each in each of 8 regions). But what explains why the SNP has done so much better in constituencies than in the regional votes?
from case data
from hospitalisation data
https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/crime/joanna-cherry-man-arrested-and-charged-relation-vicious-threat-3123459
It was last amended in 2016 under David Cameron.