I'd dearly like to believe this is the moment it starts to crash down around the Sindy cause, but I've been burnt before.
Greens mostly likely affected?
Should be the opposite as it gives YES supporters 2 seats chance rather than current 1 as all list votes for SNP are wasted given they win nearly all constituency seats. So it should be a massive positive for anyone wanting independence.
I think Salmond should have called his party the Caledonian Union of Nationalists Trusts Salmond party.
Back in 2010, wasn't the proposed CON/UUP alliance proposed as 'Conservative and Unionists - New Team' before someone pointed out that 'Conservatie and Unionists - New FORCE' just sounded..... errr.... better.
Isn’t it easier for unionist to pitch the narrative that two leaders of the independence movement are at each other throats - and expected to seamlessly deliver Indy in the process post May?
The maths may stack up in terms of the super Indy majority narrative, but surely this puts focus on infighting now and beyond.
I'd have just loved to have secretly bugged Nicola Sturgeon's room to hear all the swear words over the last 30 minutes.
Why would she swear? All those pro-Union top up seats are now in danger.
My question is, why don't they all vote Green anyway? If they're voting SNP-SNP they really don't understand the system very well. So if anything, this will may just split the Green list vote, which would only reduce the number of pro-independence MSPs.
The Greens and he SNP are strange bedfellows. The SNP spent decades building their case for independence on "Scottish" oil. Are the Scottish Greens in favour of closing the oil fields down in a post independence utopia?
Best thing about this is it could mean the nasty Greens being put in the dustbin where they belong
That's a pretty wild set of potential effects, and I'd have thought 6% isn't too high a bar.
That makes no sense - surely the Greens aren't defending anything in the North-East? They'd also, presumably, be the most likely victims in all five of the regions where they are? How much of a core vote - beyond independence backers who tactical vote for them on the lists - do the Greens actually have in Scotland?
Isn't that just a case in point that predictions of extremely efficient tactical voting are always overdone?
Yes, what we really need is some polling PDQ, not just for Holyrood but for Westminster as well.
Is this another Change UK (very little impact) or the SDP (huge polling changes)?
Aye, most definitely.
If we do end up with an indy super majority based on a Labour designed voting system, I'm definitely preparing my George Robertson 'kill nationalism stone dead' quote for another good outing.
I'm a bit surprised Labour didn't get more from the local Independent chap not being present. I can't believe all the LD votes came from him - more likely the Tories lost some votes to the LD.
My snap reaction to this is it was surely expected and it boosts the Sindy cause. The new party standing only for the PR section means the election will probably return more Indy supporting MSPs than would otherwise be the case. So a pro-Indy majority seems nailed on.
Then there's the view held by some that Sturgeon is not serious about Indy and just likes being 1st Minister. Ok, so if that's true, having Salmond back with some bite will force her to really focus on it. And if it's not true, which I kind of think it isn't, she'll be going for it anyway and having Salmond on board ought to add not detract from the effort.
The one caveat to this is if Salmond is acting out of pure desire to "get" Sturgeon. If he is, and he does well and becomes influential, we could see these 2 formidable politicians consumed in a battle with each other whilst Sindy sits around and whistles.
Not sure he'd appreciate the comparison, but Salmond seems to be modelling himself on Farage here, at least strategically: forcing the main party to keep to his independence timetable but without doing the kind of electoral damage that would make their supporters see him as a mere spoiler.
My snap reaction to this is it was surely expected and it boosts the Sindy cause. The new party standing only for the PR section means the election will probably return more Indy supporting MSPs than would otherwise be the case. So a pro-Indy majority seems nailed on.
Then there's the view held by some that Sturgeon is not serious about Indy and just likes being 1st Minister. Ok, so if that's true, having Salmond back with some bite will force her to really focus on it. And if it's not true, which I kind of think it isn't, she'll be going for it anyway and having Salmond on board ought to add not detract from the effort.
The one caveat to this is if Salmond is acting out of pure desire to "get" Sturgeon. If he is, and he does well and becomes influential, we could see these 2 formidable politicians consumed in a battle with each other whilst Sindy sits around and whistles.
Not sure he'd appreciate the comparison, but Salmond seems to be modelling himself on Farage here, at least strategically: forcing the main party to keep to his independence timetable but without doing the kind of electoral damage that would make their supporters see him as a mere spoiler.
There are huge similarities between the two. Cheeks of the same egotistical arse
That's a pretty wild set of potential effects, and I'd have thought 6% isn't too high a bar.
Almost exclusively from the Unionist parties.
And again why Galloway's rabble are hurting the Unionist cause too, because they haven't the slighest chance of getting 6%
Not at all, plenty of Greens MSPs on the list could lose their seats thanks to Alba, as could SNP lists MSPs in the Borders.
If Alba do not gain 5%+ of the vote they will also not win any list seats themselves, thus just splitting the Nationalist list vote without getting any MSPs
Isn't that just a case in point that predictions of extremely efficient tactical voting are always overdone?
Yes, what we really need is some polling PDQ, not just for Holyrood but for Westminster as well.
Is this another Change UK (very little impact) or the SDP (huge polling changes)?
Aye, most definitely.
If we do end up with an indy super majority based on a Labour designed voting system, I'm definitely preparing my George Robertson 'kill nationalism stone dead' quote for another good outing.
The SNP would clearly win a comfortable majority under FPTP on the constituency vote regardless of today's news, the list vote now split between the SNP, Greens and Alba at least gives an outside chance of a Unionist majority now
That's a pretty wild set of potential effects, and I'd have thought 6% isn't too high a bar.
Almost exclusively from the Unionist parties.
And again why Galloway's rabble are hurting the Unionist cause too, because they haven't the slighest chance of getting 6%
Not at all, plenty of Greens MSPs on the list could lose their seats thanks to Alba, as could SNP lists MSPs in the Borders.
If Alba do not gain 5%+ of the vote they will also not win any list seats themselves, thus just splitting the Nationalist list vote without getting any MSPs
Says the person who thinks Galloway's party is going to win List seats. 🙄
Also ignoring the fact the SNP don't win many List seats. What percentage vote do you think Alliance for Unity will get? What percentage Alba?
Isn't that just a case in point that predictions of extremely efficient tactical voting are always overdone?
Yes, what we really need is some polling PDQ, not just for Holyrood but for Westminster as well.
Is this another Change UK (very little impact) or the SDP (huge polling changes)?
Aye, most definitely.
If we do end up with an indy super majority based on a Labour designed voting system, I'm definitely preparing my George Robertson 'kill nationalism stone dead' quote for another good outing.
The SNP would clearly win a comfortable majority under FPTP on the constituency vote regardless of today's news, the list vote now split between the SNP, Greens and Alba at least gives an outside chance of a Unionist majority now
But you keep telling us that the SNP won't win a majorioty because of tactical voting by Labour for their Tory masters, or something.
That's a pretty wild set of potential effects, and I'd have thought 6% isn't too high a bar.
Almost exclusively from the Unionist parties.
And again why Galloway's rabble are hurting the Unionist cause too, because they haven't the slighest chance of getting 6%
Not at all, plenty of Greens MSPs on the list could lose their seats thanks to Alba, as could SNP lists MSPs in the Borders.
If Alba do not gain 5%+ of the vote they will also not win any list seats themselves, thus just splitting the Nationalist list vote without getting any MSPs
Says the person who thinks Galloway's party is going to win List seats. 🙄
Also ignoring the fact the SNP don't win many List seats. What percentage vote do you think Alliance for Unity will get? What percentage Alba?
Galloway at least could win a list seat where he is standing, otherwise AfU is far less likely to split the Unionist vote elsewhere than Salmond's new Alba party could split the SNP and Green list vote across Scotland, particularly costing the Greens list seats and also the SNP their list MSPs in the Borders.
If Alba fails to get much more than 5% all they will do is split the Nationalist vote and elect more Unionist MSPs with barely any list MSPs elected themselves bar probably Salmond and 1 or 2 others
Just for fun, I've gone through the list results from 2016 and calculated what would happen if Alba took all the SNP list votes, but everything else stayed the same. Alba pick up 34 list seats, compared to the 4 the SNP won. The Greens lose all their seats bar one in Lothian. So that's +25 MSPs for Independence.
SNP 59 ALBA 34 GREEN 1 Total MSPs for second referendum 94
Unionists 35 (I didn't bother to tally the breakdown. Roughly speaking Labour/Tories lose half their list seats)
It gives an idea of what a nightmare this could be for the Unionist parties (and the Greens) if Alba gain some momentum.
That's a pretty wild set of potential effects, and I'd have thought 6% isn't too high a bar.
Almost exclusively from the Unionist parties.
And again why Galloway's rabble are hurting the Unionist cause too, because they haven't the slighest chance of getting 6%
Not at all, plenty of Greens MSPs on the list could lose their seats thanks to Alba, as could SNP lists MSPs in the Borders.
If Alba do not gain 5%+ of the vote they will also not win any list seats themselves, thus just splitting the Nationalist list vote without getting any MSPs
Says the person who thinks Galloway's party is going to win List seats. 🙄
Also ignoring the fact the SNP don't win many List seats. What percentage vote do you think Alliance for Unity will get? What percentage Alba?
Galloway at least could win a list seat where he is standing, otherwise AfU is far less likely to split the Unionist vote elsewhere than Salmond's new Alba party could split the SNP and Green list vote across Scotland, particularly costing the Greens list seats and also the SNP their list MSPs in the Borders.
If Alba fails to get much more than 5% all they will do is split the Nationalist vote and elect more Unionist MSPs with barely any list MSPs elected themselves bar probably Salmond and 1 or 2 others
So what you're saying is in a goldilocks situation he does just enough damage to help. But too little or too much support and unionists are screwed?
My snap reaction to this is it was surely expected and it boosts the Sindy cause. The new party standing only for the PR section means the election will probably return more Indy supporting MSPs than would otherwise be the case. So a pro-Indy majority seems nailed on.
Then there's the view held by some that Sturgeon is not serious about Indy and just likes being 1st Minister. Ok, so if that's true, having Salmond back with some bite will force her to really focus on it. And if it's not true, which I kind of think it isn't, she'll be going for it anyway and having Salmond on board ought to add not detract from the effort.
The one caveat to this is if Salmond is acting out of pure desire to "get" Sturgeon. If he is, and he does well and becomes influential, we could see these 2 formidable politicians consumed in a battle with each other whilst Sindy sits around and whistles.
Not sure he'd appreciate the comparison, but Salmond seems to be modelling himself on Farage here, at least strategically: forcing the main party to keep to his independence timetable but without doing the kind of electoral damage that would make their supporters see him as a mere spoiler.
Yes, I suppose you might say that. Next step, bright cords and hacking jacket, and chasing migrants around at sea.
My snap reaction to this is it was surely expected and it boosts the Sindy cause. The new party standing only for the PR section means the election will probably return more Indy supporting MSPs than would otherwise be the case. So a pro-Indy majority seems nailed on.
Then there's the view held by some that Sturgeon is not serious about Indy and just likes being 1st Minister. Ok, so if that's true, having Salmond back with some bite will force her to really focus on it. And if it's not true, which I kind of think it isn't, she'll be going for it anyway and having Salmond on board ought to add not detract from the effort.
The one caveat to this is if Salmond is acting out of pure desire to "get" Sturgeon. If he is, and he does well and becomes influential, we could see these 2 formidable politicians consumed in a battle with each other whilst Sindy sits around and whistles.
Not sure he'd appreciate the comparison, but Salmond seems to be modelling himself on Farage here, at least strategically: forcing the main party to keep to his independence timetable but without doing the kind of electoral damage that would make their supporters see him as a mere spoiler.
There are huge similarities between the two. Cheeks of the same egotistical arse
I made the same point in the previous thread. Farage did well exploiting PR voting systems, was disliked by most voters but could mobilise a large and loyal following, he forced a larger, more centrist rival party to shift in his direction, and finally fulfilled his primary political objective (destroying the leader of said rival party into the bargain.)
Salmond may also be drawing some inspiration from another successful right wing ideologue. According to The Scotsman...
Registered online for the first time on November 23 last year, [the Alba Party] was registered with the Electoral Commission in January by retired TV producer Laurie Flynn.
The proposed descriptions submitted to the Electoral Commission include “Mandate for Independence”, “Get Independence Done” and “Make Independence Happen”.
That's a pretty wild set of potential effects, and I'd have thought 6% isn't too high a bar.
Almost exclusively from the Unionist parties.
And again why Galloway's rabble are hurting the Unionist cause too, because they haven't the slighest chance of getting 6%
Not at all, plenty of Greens MSPs on the list could lose their seats thanks to Alba, as could SNP lists MSPs in the Borders.
If Alba do not gain 5%+ of the vote they will also not win any list seats themselves, thus just splitting the Nationalist list vote without getting any MSPs
Says the person who thinks Galloway's party is going to win List seats. 🙄
Also ignoring the fact the SNP don't win many List seats. What percentage vote do you think Alliance for Unity will get? What percentage Alba?
Galloway at least could win a list seat where he is standing, otherwise AfU is far less likely to split the Unionist vote elsewhere than Salmond's new Alba party could split the SNP and Green list vote across Scotland, particularly costing the Greens list seats and also the SNP their list MSPs in the Borders.
If Alba fails to get much more than 5% all they will do is split the Nationalist vote and elect more Unionist MSPs with barely any list MSPs elected themselves bar probably Salmond and 1 or 2 others
Aren't the votes for the list seats transferable, Mr HY? I thought they were. In which case, not so much damage done.
That’s my vote sorted. SNP for constituency. Personal vote for Kenny Gibson. Alba on list. Voted Chris McEleny for list selection, so delighted to still be able to vote for him, instead of the woke pushed to the top of the list after receiving about 4% of the votes.
Message for HYFUD. Last time I voted SNP 1 and 2. List vote was wasted. This time I hope to have helped select an additional independence MSP, rather than letting a unionist in.
So, Labour well and truly in play at a time of almost zero visibility for them, and of peak vaccine triumph for a Tory government who's main policy of Brexit is looking vindicated to all but the ever diminishing ranks of the cognescenti.
Starmer will be feeling like the cat with the cream.
Just for fun, I've gone through the list results from 2016 and calculated what would happen if Alba took all the SNP list votes, but everything else stayed the same. Alba pick up 34 list seats, compared to the 4 the SNP won. The Greens lose all their seats bar one in Lothian. So that's +25 MSPs for Independence.
SNP 59 ALBA 34 GREEN 1 Total MSPs for second referendum 94
Unionists 35 (I didn't bother to tally the breakdown. Roughly speaking Labour/Tories lose half their list seats)
It gives an idea of what a nightmare this could be for the Unionist parties (and the Greens) if Alba gain some momentum.
If Alba got most of the SNP list votes they would but they won't, most SNP voters dislike Salmond now.
However if Alba get say only 4-5% which is more likely they still take SNP borders list seats and Green list seats and potentially cost the Nationalists their majority.
Of course even in your headline figure 59 is not a majority for the SNP, so Boris could just play Sturgeon and Salmond off against each other over what to do next after he refuses a legal indyref2, which he will do anyway.
Unionist parties are still likely to win a majority of votes on both the constituency and list votes which Boris will use when he refuses indyref2
That’s my vote sorted. SNP for constituency. Personal vote for Kenny Gibson. Alba on list. Voted Chris McEleny for list selection, so delighted to still be able to vote for him, instead of the woke pushed to the top of the list after receiving about 4% of the votes.
Message for HYFUD. Last time I voted SNP 1 and 2. List vote was wasted. This time I hope to have helped select an additional independence MSP, rather than letting a unionist in.
So a disgruntled former party leader has flounced off to join the Tories form his own party. Complete with a catchy one word name reflecting the country he loves.
Why doesn't Jeremy Corbyn do the same, and form his own national pride party:
This supermajority ploy has been on the cards for some time, but now its actually happening I think it wont actually work. The Separatists have ended up being too clever by a half, because the media narrative is not "this is the last step to get them over the line", but rather the "eruption of civil war in the Nationalist camp" (which actually isn´t, but given the obvious personal animosity between Salmond and Sturgeon is more believable than the arcane stuff about AMS).
So, we have until May 6th, but I think the SNP is going to have to do a hell of a lot of explanation in that time, and this will weaken their campaign message. The big question now is will Labour and the Lib Dems recover enough to make it a three way fight? From what I´m hearing, that´s a definite maybe.
That’s my vote sorted. SNP for constituency. Personal vote for Kenny Gibson. Alba on list. Voted Chris McEleny for list selection, so delighted to still be able to vote for him, instead of the woke pushed to the top of the list after receiving about 4% of the votes.
Message for HYFUD. Last time I voted SNP 1 and 2. List vote was wasted. This time I hope to have helped select an additional independence MSP, rather than letting a unionist in.
I'm just wondering how far this simply recognises that woke/not so woke/positively antiwoke is now an active spectrum. If you are positively antiwoke there's no hope for you - it's got to be Tory (or Mr Galloway's lot). But the cross splits now match the other parties when overlaid on the orthogonal domension of yes/no to indy: eg if you are not so woke you can still now vote for indy with the new party. And so on.
It may well be that the new party is actually a threat to the Labour vote as well - especially if Labour allies formally with the Tories in some way.
So, Labour well and truly in play at a time of almost zero visibility for them, and of peak vaccine triumph for a Tory government who's main policy of Brexit is looking vindicated to all but the ever diminishing ranks of the cognescenti.
Starmer will be feeling like the cat with the cream.
Well the big difference is always the Labour score....there used to be the golden rule, take the lowest Labour score among a range of polls.
That’s my vote sorted. SNP for constituency. Personal vote for Kenny Gibson. Alba on list. Voted Chris McEleny for list selection, so delighted to still be able to vote for him, instead of the woke pushed to the top of the list after receiving about 4% of the votes.
Message for HYFUD. Last time I voted SNP 1 and 2. List vote was wasted. This time I hope to have helped select an additional independence MSP, rather than letting a unionist in.
So... this whole bust-up between Sturgeon and Salmond was manufactured so that nationalists could create a decoy list without it looking like they are trying to game the system...
It seems to me that you shouldn't be allowed to only stand for list seats.
Yes. I think that AMS is a bit silly with two separate votes. It would in some ways be better if the constituency votes were added up across the region to be used for the calculation of the top-up seats.
I suspect that Sturgeon knew this was coming. She has already been talking about a coalition with the Greens even if she wins an overall majority.
Alba and the Greens will be two very different parties. I suspect Alba will be centre right, and will appeal to the rural ex SNP voters that moved to the tories over Brexit, and those that stopped voting SNP when it moved to the left under Sturgeon. Could be bad news for the Tories, especially in the North East and Highlands.
That’s my vote sorted. SNP for constituency. Personal vote for Kenny Gibson. Alba on list. Voted Chris McEleny for list selection, so delighted to still be able to vote for him, instead of the woke pushed to the top of the list after receiving about 4% of the votes.
Message for HYFUD. Last time I voted SNP 1 and 2. List vote was wasted. This time I hope to have helped select an additional independence MSP, rather than letting a unionist in.
France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has warned that countries should not be "playing with blackmail" in the bid to get their populations vaccinated.
Le Drian also told French broadcaster FranceInfo that the UK had a problem with delivering second doses of vaccine. His comments come after an EU summit on Thursday to discuss the shortage of vaccines in Europe.
He was quizzed by the presenter as to whether Europe had been "scammed" by sending vaccines to the UK and not receiving any in return. He said that, while the UK took pride in having vaccinated a lot of people with their first jabs, they had a problem delivering the second.
-----
This is the clear dangerous and false narrative being pushed....its as dangerous as AZN is crap stuff. Its the sort of propaganda the GRU used on social media to cause such problems in the US.
I suppose it does make things a lot more interesting for the next GE in Scotland as well. Suspect Dougie Ross for instance could be vulnerable if Angus Robertson returns.
I'd have just loved to have secretly bugged Nicola Sturgeon's room to hear all the swear words over the last 30 minutes.
Why would she swear? All those pro-Union top up seats are now in danger.
Maybe all parties need to split into Constituency and List versions?
Conservatives and Unionists, Liberals and Democrats, etc etc.
Or does it not quite work like that?
It only really benefits the party that cleans up in the constituency section. Today that's the SNP. When the system was chosen it was Labour.
Er, no, it doesn't - quite the reverse. It penalises them massively.
In the sense of being able to benefit from setting up a list-only mini-me party it's only a party that wins most of the constituency seats that can benefit from that ploy, because the system otherwise penalizes that party on the list.
There's no point Labour having a list-only party in Glasgow these days when they don't win any of the Glasgow constituency seats. No benefit from the split. See?
That’s my vote sorted. SNP for constituency. Personal vote for Kenny Gibson. Alba on list. Voted Chris McEleny for list selection, so delighted to still be able to vote for him, instead of the woke pushed to the top of the list after receiving about 4% of the votes.
Message for HYFUD. Last time I voted SNP 1 and 2. List vote was wasted. This time I hope to have helped select an additional independence MSP, rather than letting a unionist in.
This is bad news for the Scottish Greens, surely?
And unionists, having a constituency specialist and a list specialist that are two different parties would allow for independence voters to win a huge majority in Holyrood with well under 50% of the vote.
I wonder how many Unionist parties will get fewer MSPs than Alba?
Lib Dems nailed on?
No, the LDs will probably get about 8 MSPs and could also win the Caithness, Sutherland and Ross constituency MSP seat from the SNP which has a LD MP already
So, Labour well and truly in play at a time of almost zero visibility for them, and of peak vaccine triumph for a Tory government who's main policy of Brexit is looking vindicated to all but the ever diminishing ranks of the cognescenti.
Starmer will be feeling like the cat with the cream.
Well the big difference is always the Labour score....there used to be the golden rule, take the lowest Labour score among a range of polls.
Besides which, Labour is now structurally disadvantaged when contesting general elections. In 2005 Tony Blair outpolled Michael Howard by 2.8% and won a comfortable Parliamentary majority. By 2017 Theresa May only beat Jeremy Corbyn by 2.4% and still finished more than 50 seats ahead of Labour. The implosion of the Liberal Democrats, then of the Scottish Labour Party and finally of the Red Wall (with what's left of Labour's support now largely stacked up in the big cities or too thinly spread elsewhere to get out of second place,) has really crippled them.
I suppose it does make things a lot more interesting for the next GE in Scotland as well. Suspect Dougie Ross for instance could be vulnerable if Angus Robertson returns.
Angus Robertson more than likely to become MSP for Edinburgh central so would have to stand down to re-enter Westminster. Not that that sort of thing bothers Ross Murray, er Murray Douglas, och, whatever his name is.
I expect to lose it, but with war declared in Judea, it seems like a value bet...
Dunno if that's good value or not but the most recent projections have the SNP gaining a majority on constituency seats alone. Assuming Salmond's party isn't a giant SNP wrecking operation, he'll be explicitly recommending indy voters should vote SNP for the constituency, so...
I suppose it does make things a lot more interesting for the next GE in Scotland as well. Suspect Dougie Ross for instance could be vulnerable if Angus Robertson returns.
Except surely he'll be off to Holyrood - followed by yet another Westminster by-election later this year?
I wonder how many Unionist parties will get fewer MSPs than Alba?
Lib Dems nailed on?
No, the LDs will probably get about 8 MSPs and could also win the Caithness, Sutherland and Ross constituency MSP seat from the SNP which has a LD MP already
Want a bet? What odds will you give to Alba getting more seats than the Lib Dems?
One thing I was wondering is if Salmond damages the SNP to the extent it pushes their votes to stay at home/vote elsewhere or just vote in the list for Alba, which would be bad for the SNP/Scottish independence movement.
Any televised featuring Salmond and Sturgeon has the potential to get very very messy.
Surely this idea of a super majority means people who vote SNP will need to vote Alba on the list.
And they already hate Salmond.
Other independence parties are available, with more sympathetic martyrs to support.
Salmond is standing for a constituency seat in the NE, I gather, as an exception to the list-only rule.
Even if it does produce a wodge of pro-Indy Alba MSPs, I can't see them being willing to support Sturgeon in office, so it might help Sindy but not the SNP.
Labour and the Tories ought to be able to play this as "Don't vote for this shambles", but I'm not sure their dynamics are sufficient.
It seems to me that you shouldn't be allowed to only stand for list seats.
Yes. I think that AMS is a bit silly with two separate votes. It would in some ways be better if the constituency votes were added up across the region to be used for the calculation of the top-up seats.
That was more or less the original German system used in 1949, with a single vote. It has some disadvantages in terms of voter choice - and what happens to the votes of unsuccessful independent candidates. It was replaced for the next election with the 2 vote system.
The current German system is kind of complicated, but tries to keep to strict proportionality for all the parties that meet the threshold (though I guess it would still be theoretically somewhat vulnerable to a determined attempt to use a decoy list). It does involve having a parliament that can vary in size from 598 to 897 - currently 709 members.
I'd have just loved to have secretly bugged Nicola Sturgeon's room to hear all the swear words over the last 30 minutes.
Why would she swear? All those pro-Union top up seats are now in danger.
Maybe all parties need to split into Constituency and List versions?
Conservatives and Unionists, Liberals and Democrats, etc etc.
Or does it not quite work like that?
It only really benefits the party that cleans up in the constituency section. Today that's the SNP. When the system was chosen it was Labour.
Er, no, it doesn't - quite the reverse. It penalises them massively.
In the sense of being able to benefit from setting up a list-only mini-me party it's only a party that wins most of the constituency seats that can benefit from that ploy, because the system otherwise penalizes that party on the list.
There's no point Labour having a list-only party in Glasgow these days when they don't win any of the Glasgow constituency seats. No benefit from the split. See?
Ah, I'm with you - I'd read the split as being into two completely different parties (which surely it would on Electoral Commission regulations).
I expect to lose it, but with war declared in Judea, it seems like a value bet...
Dunno if that's good value or not but the most recent projections have the SNP gaining a majority on constituency seats alone. Assuming Salmond's party isn't a giant SNP wrecking operation, he'll be explicitly recommending indy voters should vote SNP for the constituency, so...
Do try to keep up - there is a later Survation poll and one from BMG as well
One Survation poll barely a few days later, it means little as it does not account for tactical voting by Unionists on the constituency vote, we are talking about a handful of constituency seats in both polls where tactical voting will be key
I wonder how many Unionist parties will get fewer MSPs than Alba?
Lib Dems nailed on?
No, the LDs will probably get about 8 MSPs and could also win the Caithness, Sutherland and Ross constituency MSP seat from the SNP which has a LD MP already
Want a bet? What odds will you give to Alba getting more seats than the Lib Dems?
EDIT: Seats not votes.
They will certainly get more constituency MSPs, I am not betting on the list
Salmond is standing for a constituency seat in the NE, I gather, as an exception to the list-only rule.
Even if it does produce a wodge of pro-Indy Alba MSPs, I can't see them being willing to support Sturgeon in office, so it might help Sindy but not the SNP.
Labour and the Tories ought to be able to play this as "Don't vote for this shambles", but I'm not sure their dynamics are sufficient.
Alba will likely cost the SNP their majority by losing the SNP their borders list seats, unless the SNP win a majority on the constituency seats alone.
No SNP majority, no indyref2 Boris will correctly say and use the likely Unionist majority on votes as his justification
All this talk about Sturgeon and Salmond is making me want to walk out the door of my humble abode here in Seattle, WA and keep on going down to the Locks, and check out the fish ladder.
Except it's wrong time of the year for salmon runs, so - no fish in the ladder to watch.
Comments
There’s a danger, though.
He’s delicately trying to only blow the bloody doors off, if you see what I mean....
Is this another Change UK (very little impact) or the SDP (huge polling changes)?
The maths may stack up in terms of the super Indy majority narrative, but surely this puts focus on infighting now and beyond.
In reply England need 56 more runs, with 15 overs and 9 wickets remaining.
Wow.
If we do end up with an indy super majority based on a Labour designed voting system, I'm definitely preparing my George Robertson 'kill nationalism stone dead' quote for another good outing.
I'm a bit surprised Labour didn't get more from the local Independent chap not being present. I can't believe all the LD votes came from him - more likely the Tories lost some votes to the LD.
Now we'll be all out for 301.
If Alba do not gain 5%+ of the vote they will also not win any list seats themselves, thus just splitting the Nationalist list vote without getting any MSPs
Also ignoring the fact the SNP don't win many List seats. What percentage vote do you think Alliance for Unity will get? What percentage Alba?
If Alba fails to get much more than 5% all they will do is split the Nationalist vote and elect more Unionist MSPs with barely any list MSPs elected themselves bar probably Salmond and 1 or 2 others
SNP 59
ALBA 34
GREEN 1
Total MSPs for second referendum 94
Unionists 35 (I didn't bother to tally the breakdown. Roughly speaking Labour/Tories lose half their list seats)
It gives an idea of what a nightmare this could be for the Unionist parties (and the Greens) if Alba gain some momentum.
Back to the trend then...
Oh dear
Salmond is an Alba-tross around Sturgeon's neck.
Thank you.
The ruling junta splits in order to engineer and even higher vote in the forthcoming election?
*runs away*
Salmond may also be drawing some inspiration from another successful right wing ideologue. According to The Scotsman...
Registered online for the first time on November 23 last year, [the Alba Party] was registered with the Electoral Commission in January by retired TV producer Laurie Flynn.
The proposed descriptions submitted to the Electoral Commission include “Mandate for Independence”, “Get Independence Done” and “Make Independence Happen”.
Message for HYFUD. Last time I voted SNP 1 and 2. List vote was wasted. This time I hope to have helped select an additional independence MSP, rather than letting a unionist in.
Starmer will be feeling like the cat with the cream.
However if Alba get say only 4-5% which is more likely they still take SNP borders list seats and Green list seats and potentially cost the Nationalists their majority.
Of course even in your headline figure 59 is not a majority for the SNP, so Boris could just play Sturgeon and Salmond off against each other over what to do next after he refuses a legal indyref2, which he will do anyway.
Unionist parties are still likely to win a majority of votes on both the constituency and list votes which Boris will use when he refuses indyref2
join the Toriesform his own party. Complete with a catchy one word name reflecting the country he loves.Why doesn't Jeremy Corbyn do the same, and form his own national pride party:
Palestine...
(Don't blame me, he started it.)
So, we have until May 6th, but I think the SNP is going to have to do a hell of a lot of explanation in that time, and this will weaken their campaign message. The big question now is will Labour and the Lib Dems recover enough to make it a three way fight? From what I´m hearing, that´s a definite maybe.
It may well be that the new party is actually a threat to the Labour vote as well - especially if Labour allies formally with the Tories in some way.
It was shite.
Alba and the Greens will be two very different parties. I suspect Alba will be centre right, and will appeal to the rural ex SNP voters that moved to the tories over Brexit, and those that stopped voting SNP when it moved to the left under Sturgeon. Could be bad news for the Tories, especially in the North East and Highlands.
Lib Dems nailed on?
Le Drian also told French broadcaster FranceInfo that the UK had a problem with delivering second doses of vaccine. His comments come after an EU summit on Thursday to discuss the shortage of vaccines in Europe.
He was quizzed by the presenter as to whether Europe had been "scammed" by sending vaccines to the UK and not receiving any in return. He said that, while the UK took pride in having vaccinated a lot of people with their first jabs, they had a problem delivering the second.
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This is the clear dangerous and false narrative being pushed....its as dangerous as AZN is crap stuff. Its the sort of propaganda the GRU used on social media to cause such problems in the US.
There's no point Labour having a list-only party in Glasgow these days when they don't win any of the Glasgow constituency seats. No benefit from the split. See?
EDIT: Seats not votes.
Even if it does produce a wodge of pro-Indy Alba MSPs, I can't see them being willing to support Sturgeon in office, so it might help Sindy but not the SNP.
Labour and the Tories ought to be able to play this as "Don't vote for this shambles", but I'm not sure their dynamics are sufficient.
The current German system is kind of complicated, but tries to keep to strict proportionality for all the parties that meet the threshold (though I guess it would still be theoretically somewhat vulnerable to a determined attempt to use a decoy list). It does involve having a parliament that can vary in size from 598 to 897 - currently 709 members.
https://twitter.com/acereject/status/1375457400984104964?s=20
No SNP majority, no indyref2 Boris will correctly say and use the likely Unionist majority on votes as his justification
Except it's wrong time of the year for salmon runs, so - no fish in the ladder to watch.
Instead, a zen exercise.