There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
It's temptingly straightforward, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the dispersion number, k, makes it more complicated - but also very possibly better for us.
R being 3 or 4 is simply the mean of a heck of a spread with almost everyone below the R value (and usually significantly below) and a sparse handful way above it, bringing the average up.
So reducing the infectivity means that everything shifts left on that graph (simplistically). More and more people fall in the 0 column, and the 10+ bunch come down - and if the infectivity isn't linear, possibly a long way down.
Add to that the fact that for it to spread, superspreaders must "link up" with superspreaders in a sort of series of nodes of infection. The more that infectivity is reduced, the harder it is to "find" another superspreader. It peters out a lot quicker a lot more often, and when it does reach another superspreader, they, too, are inhibited with the number they'll reach.
It's sort of like giving us at least a double hit against the virus. It may be bollocks, but I do suspect that we'll find that R drops considerably faster than the simple calculation of transmission reduction.
(Everyone's free to quote this at me a couple of months down the line if it does, indeed, turn out to be a load of old twaddle)
Yes, I agree with this. Most SEIR models are differential equations, which treat populations as infinitely divisible. In such a model the superspreaders are always connected, albeit lightly. Better, but more computationally expensive, are stochastic models that can truly capture the probability of extinction of the virus within various groups. I know that the much-mentioned Imperial model used a deterministic model, and do recall seeing at least one UK model that was stochastic, but I don't recall who else was using what.
It's been clear to me for a long time that overdispersion is a significant factor in COVID, well before people were talking about it: this disease needed a "critical mass" to take off, a classic sign of overdispersion. By the way, dispersion is not entirely captured by the "k" parameter, and very different epidemics can result from the same value of "k".
What we don't know is how vaccination affects dispersion. I think it's biologically plausible that vaccinated superspreaders remain superspreaders (but vaccinated others are resistant to catching it from them), but equally plausible that vaccination turns superspreaders into mediocrespreaders. We also don't know whether superspreaders are also supercatchers, and whether vaccination affects this. (And we don't know whether different vaccines are different in these respects.) It will be extremely difficult ever to determine these, other than very indirectly, and we may never know.
For what it's worth, I tentatively share your prediction that, at a certain point, we'll see R drop rather suddenly. The flip side is that we may see bad outbreaks amongst under-vaccinated groups.
--AS
Superspreaders - is this mainly due to their behaviour (mixing a lot) or their shedding prowess when they do mix?
Likely both, but I don't think anyone really knows the balance between the two effects. It can't be behaviour alone (else there would be a lot more of them) and it could conceivably be mostly biological (with the caveat that biological superspreaders who don't mix can't be). The very long tail in the number-infected histogram suggests that it's something relatively rare. Thankfully!
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Both can be true. Both urges can exist in the same person. eg me
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
We are of like mind. Will endure financially too.
Institute for Governemnt: "...even though the costs of coronavirus this year are enormous – over £300bn – these could easily be dwarfed by much bigger costs in the future, although these are even more uncertain than the costs this year"
Those who think the government has charted the right course, with compulsory rather than voluntary lockdowns, need to answer the question of what happens in, say, ten years when a different virus causes another pandemic - and then another a period after that.
Putting aside the dubious legality of pausing liberal democracy and the rights and liberties it entails, it seems obvious to me that the response has been an error because simple philosophy can be used to expose it as such. If you believe that it was right to put us in so much debt by the extreme prioritisation of death stats over any other considerations then you are committed to arguing for a similar policy response when it happens again - and again - and again. This is obviously impossible, so the initial response must have itself been an error.
That is to assume that we've learned nothing from the first time around. Which is clearly nonsense.
Look at the reposes of Taiwan and S.Korea - that was largely down to their having experienced SARS. With a better public health surveillance system, new techniques for rapid testing, and an appreciation that early detection and effective isolation of infected individuals can prevent pandemic spread, it need not happen again.
A decent stock of FFP2 masks wouldn't harm, either.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Both can be true. Both urges can exist in the same person. eg me
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
We are of like mind. Will endure financially too.
Institute for Governemnt: "...even though the costs of coronavirus this year are enormous – over £300bn – these could easily be dwarfed by much bigger costs in the future, although these are even more uncertain than the costs this year"
Those who think the government has charted the right course, with compulsory rather than voluntary lockdowns, need to answer the question of what happens in, say, ten years when a different virus causes another pandemic - and then another a period after that.
Putting aside the dubious legality of pausing liberal democracy and the rights and liberties it entails, it seems obvious to me that the response has been an error because simple philosophy can be used to expose it as such. If you believe that it was right to put us in so much debt by the extreme prioritisation of death stats over any other considerations then you are committed to arguing for a similar policy response when it happens again - and again - and again. This is obviously impossible, so the initial response must have itself been an error.
This has been a once in a century pandemic. Why do you think it will happen again and again?
I'm not saying I think it will. Only that it might. There are reasons to think that these will be more regular occurrences due to our unabated encroachment into rainforests. But, in any case, I only need to posit it as a hypothetical in support of the reductio ad absurdum argument.
I don't accept Selebian's WW2 analogy below, by the way. This is not even close.
Fair enough. But why should next time be like this time?
This time, we were woefully unprepared (as commented below by LostPassword). But we presently have massively increased infrastructure for vaccine production and for testing. Even, somewhat, for contact tracing. If we get another pandemic in the next few years, we'll be better prepared. We'll be better at testing, mass testing, which could be key. We should be able to limit spread/hospitalisations more without such severe lockdowns. South Korea has shown it can be done.
If there's a long time until the next pandemic then we'll no doubt get complacent. Capacity won't be kept up to scratch as there will be other more urgent things to spend money on. We'll get caught out again. But if it's far in the future then capacity to lock down again will be there.
I don't think snow/extreme weather is that bad an analogy. Every few years we have complete chaos here when there's heavy snow. It doesn't happen that often and, although the costs are huge, we don't consider the disruption and cost of being snow ready to be worth it. In Scandinavia, where snow is a common issue, they adapt and spend the money on infrastructure. We'll do the same, if pandemics become more common, we'll find other ways of making life go on as normal, through increased infrastructure for testing/tracing, increased hospital capacity, accepting more deaths.
Makes sense, everyone has seen what has happened to AZ. No point signing a contract with the EU until you can be 100% sure that the contract will easily be met.
Why would they sign if they don't know whether the contracts are going to be respected?
Quite. If you’re a big pharma company right now, you’ll be looking at the way the EU has treated AZ (even as they sell the jab not-for-profit) - trashing the vaccine, pointlessly suspending its use, constantly smearing the company, then sending armed police into the AZ factory to seize ‘hidden jabs’ which turn out to be entirely innocent. And threatening to steal IP and ingredients.
I would be extremely wary of doing any deal with an organisation like that. And it’s not as if you lack customers elsewhere
I've been lucky enough to visit the panama canal on a number of occasions, its quite something to see these massive vessels up close and the shear volume of them passing through every day.
They’re about to discover this. No-one will sign a contract it’s them, unless it’s either totally outside the EU production, or a new facility within the EU that they’re paying for completely.
Well exactly. A company entering a deal with the EU to supply vaccines risks being slandered, raided, threatened, the contracts being ignored, and interference with their legitimate business with other states. Right now the EU would be the last customer I'd want if I had a vaccine in production, I'm quite confident there are many better customers and there is no lack of demand.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Both can be true. Both urges can exist in the same person. eg me
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
We are of like mind. Will endure financially too.
Institute for Governemnt: "...even though the costs of coronavirus this year are enormous – over £300bn – these could easily be dwarfed by much bigger costs in the future, although these are even more uncertain than the costs this year"
Those who think the government has charted the right course, with compulsory rather than voluntary lockdowns, need to answer the question of what happens in, say, ten years when a different virus causes another pandemic - and then another a period after that.
Putting aside the dubious legality of pausing liberal democracy and the rights and liberties it entails, it seems obvious to me that the response has been an error because simple philosophy can be used to expose it as such. If you believe that it was right to put us in so much debt by the extreme prioritisation of death stats over any other considerations then you are committed to arguing for a similar policy response when it happens again - and again - and again. This is obviously impossible, so the initial response must have itself been an error.
Are you just questioning the fine balance of Law vs Info/Guidance? Or are you saying the whole approach was wrong and there should have been zero or minimal government restrictions on behaviour?
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Both can be true. Both urges can exist in the same person. eg me
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
We are of like mind. Will endure financially too.
Institute for Governemnt: "...even though the costs of coronavirus this year are enormous – over £300bn – these could easily be dwarfed by much bigger costs in the future, although these are even more uncertain than the costs this year"
Those who think the government has charted the right course, with compulsory rather than voluntary lockdowns, need to answer the question of what happens in, say, ten years when a different virus causes another pandemic - and then another a period after that.
Putting aside the dubious legality of pausing liberal democracy and the rights and liberties it entails, it seems obvious to me that the response has been an error because simple philosophy can be used to expose it as such. If you believe that it was right to put us in so much debt by the extreme prioritisation of death stats over any other considerations then you are committed to arguing for a similar policy response when it happens again - and again - and again. This is obviously impossible, so the initial response must have itself been an error.
That is to assume that we've learned nothing from the first time around. Which is clearly nonsense.
Look at the reposes of Taiwan and S.Korea - that was largely down to their having experienced SARS. With a better public health surveillance system, new techniques for rapid testing, and an appreciation that early detection and effective isolation of infected individuals can prevent pandemic spread, it need not happen again.
A decent stock of FFP2 masks wouldn't harm, either.
Leaving aside whether you are being overly optimistic or me being overly pessimistic, you seem to be conceding that those who are 'happy' for our economy and liberties to be trashed would, in principle, accept this again in the future?
They’re about to discover this. No-one will sign a contract it’s them, unless it’s either totally outside the EU production, or a new facility within the EU that they’re paying for completely.
Even the latter isn't a sane option, if it isn't 100% productive immediately the EU will be looking to pin the blame on you.
Why would they sign if they don't know whether the contracts are going to be respected?
Quite. If you’re a big pharma company right now, you’ll be looking at the way the EU has treated AZ (even as they sell the jab not-for-profit) - trashing the vaccine, pointlessly suspending its use, constantly smearing the company, then sending armed police into the AZ factory to seize ‘hidden jabs’ which turn out to be entirely innocent. And threatening to steal IP and ingredients.
I would be extremely wary of doing any deal with an organisation like that. And it’s not as if you lack customers elsewhere
Perhaps the UK could act as a middle-man. With a finder's fee, of course.
I've been lucky enough to visit the panama canal on a number of occasions, its quite something to see these massive vessels up close and the shear volume of them passing through every day.
The Suez Canal is strangely disappointing. A bit of dreary desert with a water channel
The Corinth canal, which was commenced 2,000 years ago, is magnificent
Haven't been on much recently, but for those who remember I was worried about a paralyzed vocal cord, all is well. I actually knew that a few weeks ago, but just had it confirmed. MRI clear. Suddenly went from GP, to camera down throat to MRI in a matter of days, to no longer being of any interest to the NHS. Very impressed with the response times when there was a possibility of a tumour or neurological issue. Almost certainly a virus that attacked the nerves and even better news they are repairing (which normally takes some time, if at all) and my voice is back to normal.
Interestingly you may of heard that Sabastian Coe appeared on the BBC and an ENT doctor called the BBC to say he should contact a doctor ASAP if his voice had been like that for more than a couple of weeks. His symptoms started the same time as mine and he lives very close to me. I have never met him or even seen him locally, but who knows.
They’re about to discover this. No-one will sign a contract it’s them, unless it’s either totally outside the EU production, or a new facility within the EU that they’re paying for completely.
Even the latter isn't a sane option, if it isn't 100% productive immediately the EU will be looking to pin the blame on you.
And what kind of contracts is the EU trying to enforce right now? It must be like negotiating with a crack addict on a bender
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Both can be true. Both urges can exist in the same person. eg me
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
We are of like mind. Will endure financially too.
Institute for Governemnt: "...even though the costs of coronavirus this year are enormous – over £300bn – these could easily be dwarfed by much bigger costs in the future, although these are even more uncertain than the costs this year"
Those who think the government has charted the right course, with compulsory rather than voluntary lockdowns, need to answer the question of what happens in, say, ten years when a different virus causes another pandemic - and then another a period after that.
Putting aside the dubious legality of pausing liberal democracy and the rights and liberties it entails, it seems obvious to me that the response has been an error because simple philosophy can be used to expose it as such. If you believe that it was right to put us in so much debt by the extreme prioritisation of death stats over any other considerations then you are committed to arguing for a similar policy response when it happens again - and again - and again. This is obviously impossible, so the initial response must have itself been an error.
This has been a once in a century pandemic. Why do you think it will happen again and again?
I'm not saying I think it will. Only that it might. There are reasons to think that these will be more regular occurrences due to our unabated encroachment into rainforests. But, in any case, I only need to posit it as a hypothetical in support of the reductio ad absurdum argument.
I don't accept Selebian's WW2 analogy below, by the way. This is not even close.
Why 'once a century', though? There were a couple of pandemics of similar scale in the second half of the twentieth century. And SARS, MERS, swine flu all might have turned into pandemics. And the changes in human population (growth, and interconnectedness) make pandemics considerably more likely. We'll be very lucky if this doesn't happen again in the next couple of decades.
Yes, and look at the precedent that has been set! 2020: the year that homo sapiens shat itself.
I think one thing to bear in mind is that most viruses are not as infectious as SARS-CoV-2 (depending on how you define "most"). That's true of coronaviruses like original SARS* and MERS, and seems true of influenzas and rhinoviruses as well as Ebola. Indeed one reason that the world didn't suppress COVID properly in the first wave was that we kept underestimating its spread: the hypothesis that it was spread by droplets and fomites rather than aerosols was not unreasonable given prior experience. It's also, in my opinion, why lockdowns were not properly considered until too late.
No doubt there will be another pandemic, but with any luck it will be only as infectious as flu. In that case, much milder NPIs may keep a lid on it and/or keep it out of vulnerable populations (flu R0 is usually less than 2, often much less). It's only the real nasties like measles, polio, and smallpox that spread so fast that lockdowns are necessary in the absence of vaccines.
*well, SARS may have been as contagious as SARS-CoV-2, but generally not until you had a temperature. This made control a lot easier.
I was thinking, a few weeks back, what would have happened if COVID had appeared 20 years ago. It almost doesn't bear thinking about. Despite the tragedies that have occurred, and for all that it doesn't feel like it, we have probably been lucky that it -- just! -- arrived in the era of MRNA and vectored vaccine development.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Both can be true. Both urges can exist in the same person. eg me
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
We are of like mind. Will endure financially too.
Institute for Governemnt: "...even though the costs of coronavirus this year are enormous – over £300bn – these could easily be dwarfed by much bigger costs in the future, although these are even more uncertain than the costs this year"
Those who think the government has charted the right course, with compulsory rather than voluntary lockdowns, need to answer the question of what happens in, say, ten years when a different virus causes another pandemic - and then another a period after that.
Putting aside the dubious legality of pausing liberal democracy and the rights and liberties it entails, it seems obvious to me that the response has been an error because simple philosophy can be used to expose it as such. If you believe that it was right to put us in so much debt by the extreme prioritisation of death stats over any other considerations then you are committed to arguing for a similar policy response when it happens again - and again - and again. This is obviously impossible, so the initial response must have itself been an error.
That is to assume that we've learned nothing from the first time around. Which is clearly nonsense.
Look at the reposes of Taiwan and S.Korea - that was largely down to their having experienced SARS. With a better public health surveillance system, new techniques for rapid testing, and an appreciation that early detection and effective isolation of infected individuals can prevent pandemic spread, it need not happen again.
A decent stock of FFP2 masks wouldn't harm, either.
Leaving aside whether you are being overly optimistic or me being overly pessimistic, you seem to be conceding that those who are 'happy' for our economy and liberties to be trashed would, in principle, accept this again in the future?
No, I'm saying that if it happens again we have the choice of being UK redux, Brazil, or something more akin to Taiwan. You appear to be advocating Brazil.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Both can be true. Both urges can exist in the same person. eg me
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
We are of like mind. Will endure financially too.
Institute for Governemnt: "...even though the costs of coronavirus this year are enormous – over £300bn – these could easily be dwarfed by much bigger costs in the future, although these are even more uncertain than the costs this year"
Those who think the government has charted the right course, with compulsory rather than voluntary lockdowns, need to answer the question of what happens in, say, ten years when a different virus causes another pandemic - and then another a period after that.
Putting aside the dubious legality of pausing liberal democracy and the rights and liberties it entails, it seems obvious to me that the response has been an error because simple philosophy can be used to expose it as such. If you believe that it was right to put us in so much debt by the extreme prioritisation of death stats over any other considerations then you are committed to arguing for a similar policy response when it happens again - and again - and again. This is obviously impossible, so the initial response must have itself been an error.
Are you just questioning the fine balance of Law vs Info/Guidance? Or are you saying the whole approach was wrong and there should have been zero or minimal government restrictions on behaviour?
The former (I'm not a Covid denier however you define it!) but the main thing is that I think that matters of liberty and the economy have been under-priced in the initial panic that we and other nations experienced. And we are continuing to underprice them - hindered by a populist government which is frightened by its own shadow. If there is eventually a public inquiry this, for me, is the main thing to address.
I said back in March last year that Johnson should be flanked by a public health authority, a chief economist and a philosopher rather than just the former and I haven't wavered from this. At bottom I don't agree that health is the most important thing. I think that our liberal democracy is - our way, our system, of living. To see this, how is it that we require referenda to leave the EU and for Scotland to leave the UK (or any other constitutional matter that lies BELOW liberal democracy) but not for our very rights and liberties themselves to be stripped from us?
Haven't been on much recently, but for those who remember I was worried about a paralyzed vocal cord, all is well. I actually knew that a few weeks ago, but just had it confirmed. MRI clear. Suddenly went from GP, to camera down throat to MRI in a matter of days, to no longer being of any interest to the NHS. Very impressed with the response times when there was a possibility of a tumour or neurological issue. Almost certainly a virus that attacked the nerves and even better news they are repairing (which normally takes some time, if at all) and my voice is back to normal.
Interestingly you may of heard that Sabastian Coe appeared on the BBC and an ENT doctor called the BBC to say he should contact a doctor ASAP if his voice had been like that for more than a couple of weeks. His symptoms started the same time as mine and he lives very close to me. I have never met him or even seen him locally, but who knows.
Wonderful. I was thinking of asking, but didn't want to pry. Glad to hear that it's resolved.
I've been lucky enough to visit the panama canal on a number of occasions, its quite something to see these massive vessels up close and the shear volume of them passing through every day.
The Suez Canal is strangely disappointing. A bit of dreary desert with a water channel
The Corinth canal, which was commenced 2,000 years ago, is magnificent
As I am sure you know, the panama canal cuts through the rainforest. The Gamboa resort has spectacular views of it and the canal. Sitting eating your breakfast watching the monkeys play and these giant container ships potter past is quite a contrast.
I've been lucky enough to visit the panama canal on a number of occasions, its quite something to see these massive vessels up close and the shear volume of them passing through every day.
The Suez Canal is strangely disappointing. A bit of dreary desert with a water channel
The Corinth canal, which was commenced 2,000 years ago, is magnificent
But in one sense they are just the same - the Ever Given would have had no less success trying to navigate the Corinth Canal.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Both can be true. Both urges can exist in the same person. eg me
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
We are of like mind. Will endure financially too.
Institute for Governemnt: "...even though the costs of coronavirus this year are enormous – over £300bn – these could easily be dwarfed by much bigger costs in the future, although these are even more uncertain than the costs this year"
Those who think the government has charted the right course, with compulsory rather than voluntary lockdowns, need to answer the question of what happens in, say, ten years when a different virus causes another pandemic - and then another a period after that.
Putting aside the dubious legality of pausing liberal democracy and the rights and liberties it entails, it seems obvious to me that the response has been an error because simple philosophy can be used to expose it as such. If you believe that it was right to put us in so much debt by the extreme prioritisation of death stats over any other considerations then you are committed to arguing for a similar policy response when it happens again - and again - and again. This is obviously impossible, so the initial response must have itself been an error.
This has been a once in a century pandemic. Why do you think it will happen again and again?
I'm not saying I think it will. Only that it might. There are reasons to think that these will be more regular occurrences due to our unabated encroachment into rainforests. But, in any case, I only need to posit it as a hypothetical in support of the reductio ad absurdum argument.
I don't accept Selebian's WW2 analogy below, by the way. This is not even close.
Why 'once a century', though? There were a couple of pandemics of similar scale in the second half of the twentieth century. And SARS, MERS, swine flu all might have turned into pandemics. And the changes in human population (growth, and interconnectedness) make pandemics considerably more likely. We'll be very lucky if this doesn't happen again in the next couple of decades.
Yes, and look at the precedent that has been set! 2020: the year that homo sapiens shat itself.
I think one thing to bear in mind is that most viruses are not as infectious as SARS-CoV-2 (depending on how you define "most"). That's true of coronaviruses like original SARS* and MERS, and seems true of influenzas and rhinoviruses as well as Ebola. Indeed one reason that the world didn't suppress COVID properly in the first wave was that we kept underestimating its spread: the hypothesis that it was spread by droplets and fomites rather than aerosols was not unreasonable given prior experience. It's also, in my opinion, why lockdowns were not properly considered until too late.
No doubt there will be another pandemic, but with any luck it will be only as infectious as flu. In that case, much milder NPIs may keep a lid on it and/or keep it out of vulnerable populations (flu R0 is usually less than 2, often much less). It's only the real nasties like measles, polio, and smallpox that spread so fast that lockdowns are necessary in the absence of vaccines.
*well, SARS may have been as contagious as SARS-CoV-2, but generally not until you had a temperature. This made control a lot easier.
I was thinking, a few weeks back, what would have happened if COVID had appeared 20 years ago. It almost doesn't bear thinking about. Despite the tragedies that have occurred, and for all that it doesn't feel like it, we have probably been lucky that it -- just! -- arrived in the era of MRNA and vectored vaccine development.
--AS
I read somewhere that the R0 of the flu that caused the 1918 pandemic was up to 2.5?
The current incident is in about the worst place possible, in the southern section of single-canal running. The northern section had a second canal dug a few years ago, opened in 2015 from memory.
They should dig a second full canal, like the Channel Tunnel.
Talking of major transport infrastructure - I just drove around the back of Euston Station for the first time in ages.
HS2 is now visibly smashing its way north. Epic scenes of heavy engineering, like the first big Victorian railways. Quite unsettling in a mixed way to see something talked of, for so long, actually happening. I suppose in the rear of my mind I still had the vague notion it might be cancelled. Clearly not.
Like the Bourne prints of almost two centuries ago?
Precisely. And in exactly the same place. The view now is eerily similar to that print
Dickens famously describes these imperious scenes. Camden was formed by them - the four ‘castle’ pubs (Dublin, Edinboro, etc) were, allegedly, thus denoted because they told you which navvies drank where: scotch, Irish &c
Indeed! A friend of mine lives there and he took me around - also took me to the train home at KX past St Pancras's church (where T. Hardy had to supervise the exhumations in a later railway project).
I've been lucky enough to visit the panama canal on a number of occasions, its quite something to see these massive vessels up close and the shear volume of them passing through every day.
The Suez Canal is strangely disappointing. A bit of dreary desert with a water channel
The Corinth canal, which was commenced 2,000 years ago, is magnificent
As I am sure you know, the panama canal cuts through the rainforest. The Gamboa resort has spectacular views of it and the canal. Sitting eating your breakfast watching the monkeys play and these giant container ships potter past is quite a contrast.
Never been. Would love to go. I was meant to be doing Central America... then covid. Sigh
Institute for Governemnt: "...even though the costs of coronavirus this year are enormous – over £300bn – these could easily be dwarfed by much bigger costs in the future, although these are even more uncertain than the costs this year"
Those who think the government has charted the right course, with compulsory rather than voluntary lockdowns, need to answer the question of what happens in, say, ten years when a different virus causes another pandemic - and then another a period after that.
Putting aside the dubious legality of pausing liberal democracy and the rights and liberties it entails, it seems obvious to me that the response has been an error because simple philosophy can be used to expose it as such. If you believe that it was right to put us in so much debt by the extreme prioritisation of death stats over any other considerations then you are committed to arguing for a similar policy response when it happens again - and again - and again. This is obviously impossible, so the initial response must have itself been an error.
The costs of coronavirus would still have existed whether we had a compulsory or voluntary lockdown. What would have made a difference is getting on top of the virus earlier and hopefully we will do that next time.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Both can be true. Both urges can exist in the same person. eg me
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
We are of like mind. Will endure financially too.
Institute for Governemnt: "...even though the costs of coronavirus this year are enormous – over £300bn – these could easily be dwarfed by much bigger costs in the future, although these are even more uncertain than the costs this year"
Those who think the government has charted the right course, with compulsory rather than voluntary lockdowns, need to answer the question of what happens in, say, ten years when a different virus causes another pandemic - and then another a period after that.
Putting aside the dubious legality of pausing liberal democracy and the rights and liberties it entails, it seems obvious to me that the response has been an error because simple philosophy can be used to expose it as such. If you believe that it was right to put us in so much debt by the extreme prioritisation of death stats over any other considerations then you are committed to arguing for a similar policy response when it happens again - and again - and again. This is obviously impossible, so the initial response must have itself been an error.
That is to assume that we've learned nothing from the first time around. Which is clearly nonsense.
Look at the reposes of Taiwan and S.Korea - that was largely down to their having experienced SARS. With a better public health surveillance system, new techniques for rapid testing, and an appreciation that early detection and effective isolation of infected individuals can prevent pandemic spread, it need not happen again.
A decent stock of FFP2 masks wouldn't harm, either.
Leaving aside whether you are being overly optimistic or me being overly pessimistic, you seem to be conceding that those who are 'happy' for our economy and liberties to be trashed would, in principle, accept this again in the future?
No, I'm saying that if it happens again we have the choice of being UK redux, Brazil, or something more akin to Taiwan. You appear to be advocating Brazil.
Sorry, I don't know much about Brazil but I think they've pretty much ignored it and gone on regardless? If so, no I'm not advocating that.
I'm hoping that some serious planning including the obvious health provisions but also a fighting fund is set up for future eventualities and also I question the legality of what has been done and I'm very surprised it hasn't been challenged. There has no doubt been a lot to learn but you are more optimistic than I am about future preparedness.
At least I've got you all going this evening. I know my view is niche. I'm shocked that it is so niche though.
Indian takeaway for dinner so things are looking up.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Both can be true. Both urges can exist in the same person. eg me
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
We are of like mind. Will endure financially too.
Institute for Governemnt: "...even though the costs of coronavirus this year are enormous – over £300bn – these could easily be dwarfed by much bigger costs in the future, although these are even more uncertain than the costs this year"
Those who think the government has charted the right course, with compulsory rather than voluntary lockdowns, need to answer the question of what happens in, say, ten years when a different virus causes another pandemic - and then another a period after that.
Putting aside the dubious legality of pausing liberal democracy and the rights and liberties it entails, it seems obvious to me that the response has been an error because simple philosophy can be used to expose it as such. If you believe that it was right to put us in so much debt by the extreme prioritisation of death stats over any other considerations then you are committed to arguing for a similar policy response when it happens again - and again - and again. This is obviously impossible, so the initial response must have itself been an error.
This has been a once in a century pandemic. Why do you think it will happen again and again?
I'm not saying I think it will. Only that it might. There are reasons to think that these will be more regular occurrences due to our unabated encroachment into rainforests. But, in any case, I only need to posit it as a hypothetical in support of the reductio ad absurdum argument.
I don't accept Selebian's WW2 analogy below, by the way. This is not even close.
Why 'once a century', though? There were a couple of pandemics of similar scale in the second half of the twentieth century. And SARS, MERS, swine flu all might have turned into pandemics. And the changes in human population (growth, and interconnectedness) make pandemics considerably more likely. We'll be very lucky if this doesn't happen again in the next couple of decades.
Yes, and look at the precedent that has been set! 2020: the year that homo sapiens shat itself.
I think one thing to bear in mind is that most viruses are not as infectious as SARS-CoV-2 (depending on how you define "most"). That's true of coronaviruses like original SARS* and MERS, and seems true of influenzas and rhinoviruses as well as Ebola. Indeed one reason that the world didn't suppress COVID properly in the first wave was that we kept underestimating its spread: the hypothesis that it was spread by droplets and fomites rather than aerosols was not unreasonable given prior experience. It's also, in my opinion, why lockdowns were not properly considered until too late.
No doubt there will be another pandemic, but with any luck it will be only as infectious as flu. In that case, much milder NPIs may keep a lid on it and/or keep it out of vulnerable populations (flu R0 is usually less than 2, often much less). It's only the real nasties like measles, polio, and smallpox that spread so fast that lockdowns are necessary in the absence of vaccines.
*well, SARS may have been as contagious as SARS-CoV-2, but generally not until you had a temperature. This made control a lot easier.
I was thinking, a few weeks back, what would have happened if COVID had appeared 20 years ago. It almost doesn't bear thinking about. Despite the tragedies that have occurred, and for all that it doesn't feel like it, we have probably been lucky that it -- just! -- arrived in the era of MRNA and vectored vaccine development.
--AS
I read somewhere that the R0 of the flu that caused the 1918 pandemic was up to 2.5?
It's difficult to determine with historical data, but there have been a lot of studies into this. I saw a literature review that said the median estimate (i.e. the median of the different analyses) is about 1.8. About the same for 1968 flu. A bit less for the 1957 and 2009 pandemics.
The more I think about it the more Sanofi is to blame for the EU's current situation wrt vaccines. They clearly bet the farm on BioNTech and Sanofi both becoming available in Q1 with at least 50m doses of each one plus 80m of AZ. If AZ had reduced their deliveries to the same 30m but the EU had 50m Sanofi doses in addition to those 30m and 50m from Pfizer I really believe that they would have just shut up and got on with it. No idiotic accusations or threats of export bans. It would have put the EU on the same path as the US in Q1, just behind us and I'm sure that would have been good enough.
I take your point, but it's a bit misleading to say 'Sanofi is to blame'. Vaccine development is inherently uncertain, and they were unlucky in their first attempt. In fact, looking at it a year ago, it was reasonable to expect Sanofi to be likely to be one of the successful ones, and a bit of surprise that the BioNTech and Moderna ones were the first to get approved. So in that sense the EU were just unlucky, they happened to bet on (some of) the wrong nags, but it wasn't an unreasonable portfolio.
Having said that, I suspect that some of our success in backing the right nags wasn't just luck, but was down to the experience and skill of Kate Bingham and her team. Certainly she seems, early on, to have backed all the eventual front-runners, with the exception of Moderna which they bought into later. Of course, she probably understood that Moderna weren't likely to be able to deliver early to the UK anyway.
And I think we might be on track for another UK procurement success, with Novavax coming through as a possible saviour against the South African variant.
I've been lucky enough to visit the panama canal on a number of occasions, its quite something to see these massive vessels up close and the shear volume of them passing through every day.
The Suez Canal is strangely disappointing. A bit of dreary desert with a water channel
The Corinth canal, which was commenced 2,000 years ago, is magnificent
You can't really claim to have seen ship canals until you've seen the Manchester Ship Canal - oldest ship canal in the world (by characteristically Mancunian sleight-of-conditionality - basically the older ones don't count for various reasons). 100 years ago, Manchester was the third biggest port in the UK. (Well, Salford - again, you have to use Mancunian sleight of language here).
It didn't cut weeks off a sea route. But it got one over on Liverpool (who were massively overcharging for port facilities) - which is ultimately what matters.
The current incident is in about the worst place possible, in the southern section of single-canal running. The northern section had a second canal dug a few years ago, opened in 2015 from memory.
They should dig a second full canal, like the Channel Tunnel.
Talking of major transport infrastructure - I just drove around the back of Euston Station for the first time in ages.
HS2 is now visibly smashing its way north. Epic scenes of heavy engineering, like the first big Victorian railways. Quite unsettling in a mixed way to see something talked of, for so long, actually happening. I suppose in the rear of my mind I still had the vague notion it might be cancelled. Clearly not.
Like the Bourne prints of almost two centuries ago?
Precisely. And in exactly the same place. The view now is eerily similar to that print
Dickens famously describes these imperious scenes. Camden was formed by them - the four ‘castle’ pubs (Dublin, Edinboro, etc) were, allegedly, thus denoted because they told you which navvies drank where: scotch, Irish &c
Indeed! A friend of mine lives there and he took me around - also took me to the train home at KX past St Pancras's church (where T. Hardy had to supervise the exhumations in a later railway project).
A wonderfully atmospheric chunk of london. The church is properly spooky. It may be one of the oldest churches in the world, with Roman origins, and an Anglo Saxon altar. Cromwell stabled horses there. What a history
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Both can be true. Both urges can exist in the same person. eg me
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
We are of like mind. Will endure financially too.
Institute for Governemnt: "...even though the costs of coronavirus this year are enormous – over £300bn – these could easily be dwarfed by much bigger costs in the future, although these are even more uncertain than the costs this year"
Those who think the government has charted the right course, with compulsory rather than voluntary lockdowns, need to answer the question of what happens in, say, ten years when a different virus causes another pandemic - and then another a period after that.
Putting aside the dubious legality of pausing liberal democracy and the rights and liberties it entails, it seems obvious to me that the response has been an error because simple philosophy can be used to expose it as such. If you believe that it was right to put us in so much debt by the extreme prioritisation of death stats over any other considerations then you are committed to arguing for a similar policy response when it happens again - and again - and again. This is obviously impossible, so the initial response must have itself been an error.
This has been a once in a century pandemic. Why do you think it will happen again and again?
I'm not saying I think it will. Only that it might. There are reasons to think that these will be more regular occurrences due to our unabated encroachment into rainforests. But, in any case, I only need to posit it as a hypothetical in support of the reductio ad absurdum argument.
I don't accept Selebian's WW2 analogy below, by the way. This is not even close.
Why 'once a century', though? There were a couple of pandemics of similar scale in the second half of the twentieth century. And SARS, MERS, swine flu all might have turned into pandemics. And the changes in human population (growth, and interconnectedness) make pandemics considerably more likely. We'll be very lucky if this doesn't happen again in the next couple of decades.
Yes, and look at the precedent that has been set! 2020: the year that homo sapiens shat itself.
I think one thing to bear in mind is that most viruses are not as infectious as SARS-CoV-2 (depending on how you define "most"). That's true of coronaviruses like original SARS* and MERS, and seems true of influenzas and rhinoviruses as well as Ebola. Indeed one reason that the world didn't suppress COVID properly in the first wave was that we kept underestimating its spread: the hypothesis that it was spread by droplets and fomites rather than aerosols was not unreasonable given prior experience. It's also, in my opinion, why lockdowns were not properly considered until too late.
No doubt there will be another pandemic, but with any luck it will be only as infectious as flu. In that case, much milder NPIs may keep a lid on it and/or keep it out of vulnerable populations (flu R0 is usually less than 2, often much less). It's only the real nasties like measles, polio, and smallpox that spread so fast that lockdowns are necessary in the absence of vaccines.
*well, SARS may have been as contagious as SARS-CoV-2, but generally not until you had a temperature. This made control a lot easier.
I was thinking, a few weeks back, what would have happened if COVID had appeared 20 years ago. It almost doesn't bear thinking about. Despite the tragedies that have occurred, and for all that it doesn't feel like it, we have probably been lucky that it -- just! -- arrived in the era of MRNA and vectored vaccine development.
--AS
I read somewhere that the R0 of the flu that caused the 1918 pandemic was up to 2.5?
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Both can be true. Both urges can exist in the same person. eg me
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
We are of like mind. Will endure financially too.
Institute for Governemnt: "...even though the costs of coronavirus this year are enormous – over £300bn – these could easily be dwarfed by much bigger costs in the future, although these are even more uncertain than the costs this year"
Those who think the government has charted the right course, with compulsory rather than voluntary lockdowns, need to answer the question of what happens in, say, ten years when a different virus causes another pandemic - and then another a period after that.
Putting aside the dubious legality of pausing liberal democracy and the rights and liberties it entails, it seems obvious to me that the response has been an error because simple philosophy can be used to expose it as such. If you believe that it was right to put us in so much debt by the extreme prioritisation of death stats over any other considerations then you are committed to arguing for a similar policy response when it happens again - and again - and again. This is obviously impossible, so the initial response must have itself been an error.
That is to assume that we've learned nothing from the first time around. Which is clearly nonsense.
Look at the reposes of Taiwan and S.Korea - that was largely down to their having experienced SARS. With a better public health surveillance system, new techniques for rapid testing, and an appreciation that early detection and effective isolation of infected individuals can prevent pandemic spread, it need not happen again.
A decent stock of FFP2 masks wouldn't harm, either.
Leaving aside whether you are being overly optimistic or me being overly pessimistic, you seem to be conceding that those who are 'happy' for our economy and liberties to be trashed would, in principle, accept this again in the future?
No, I'm saying that if it happens again we have the choice of being UK redux, Brazil, or something more akin to Taiwan. You appear to be advocating Brazil.
Sorry, I don't know much about Brazil but I think they've pretty much ignored it and gone on regardless? If so, no I'm not advocating that.
I'm hoping that some serious planning including the obvious health provisions but also a fighting fund is set up for future eventualities and also I question the legality of what has been done and I'm very surprised it hasn't been challenged. There has no doubt been a lot to learn but you are more optimistic than I am about future preparedness.
At least I've got you all going this evening. I know my view is niche. I'm shocked that it is so niche though.
Indian takeaway for dinner so things are looking up.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Both can be true. Both urges can exist in the same person. eg me
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
We are of like mind. Will endure financially too.
Institute for Governemnt: "...even though the costs of coronavirus this year are enormous – over £300bn – these could easily be dwarfed by much bigger costs in the future, although these are even more uncertain than the costs this year"
Those who think the government has charted the right course, with compulsory rather than voluntary lockdowns, need to answer the question of what happens in, say, ten years when a different virus causes another pandemic - and then another a period after that.
Putting aside the dubious legality of pausing liberal democracy and the rights and liberties it entails, it seems obvious to me that the response has been an error because simple philosophy can be used to expose it as such. If you believe that it was right to put us in so much debt by the extreme prioritisation of death stats over any other considerations then you are committed to arguing for a similar policy response when it happens again - and again - and again. This is obviously impossible, so the initial response must have itself been an error.
This has been a once in a century pandemic. Why do you think it will happen again and again?
I'm not saying I think it will. Only that it might. There are reasons to think that these will be more regular occurrences due to our unabated encroachment into rainforests. But, in any case, I only need to posit it as a hypothetical in support of the reductio ad absurdum argument.
I don't accept Selebian's WW2 analogy below, by the way. This is not even close.
Why 'once a century', though? There were a couple of pandemics of similar scale in the second half of the twentieth century. And SARS, MERS, swine flu all might have turned into pandemics. And the changes in human population (growth, and interconnectedness) make pandemics considerably more likely. We'll be very lucky if this doesn't happen again in the next couple of decades.
Yes, and look at the precedent that has been set! 2020: the year that homo sapiens shat itself.
I think one thing to bear in mind is that most viruses are not as infectious as SARS-CoV-2 (depending on how you define "most"). That's true of coronaviruses like original SARS* and MERS, and seems true of influenzas and rhinoviruses as well as Ebola. Indeed one reason that the world didn't suppress COVID properly in the first wave was that we kept underestimating its spread: the hypothesis that it was spread by droplets and fomites rather than aerosols was not unreasonable given prior experience. It's also, in my opinion, why lockdowns were not properly considered until too late.
No doubt there will be another pandemic, but with any luck it will be only as infectious as flu. In that case, much milder NPIs may keep a lid on it and/or keep it out of vulnerable populations (flu R0 is usually less than 2, often much less). It's only the real nasties like measles, polio, and smallpox that spread so fast that lockdowns are necessary in the absence of vaccines.
*well, SARS may have been as contagious as SARS-CoV-2, but generally not until you had a temperature. This made control a lot easier.
I was thinking, a few weeks back, what would have happened if COVID had appeared 20 years ago. It almost doesn't bear thinking about. Despite the tragedies that have occurred, and for all that it doesn't feel like it, we have probably been lucky that it -- just! -- arrived in the era of MRNA and vectored vaccine development.
--AS
It's one reason that the response was wrong early on; they kept trying to apply the methods for a putative flu pandemic (with far lower R and no presymptomatic spread phase).
(which is one thing that Sumption and co who keep going on about "why didn't we follow the previous plan?" seem to have difficulty grasping: the previous plan was a carefully considered course of action against a different threat - and we were following it for too long to start with).
On the voluntary-versus-compulsory lockdown thing: it runs into a problem that regardless of where else in the world you try to pick out, whenever we tried to rely on people short of lockdown here, spread grew. Too many people pub-crawling out of quarantine or arguing about Scotch eggs, or whatevernd too few people being willing to take responsibility for their own actions (NOT just their own risk, but the risk they possessed to others). How we solve that, I don't know.
I can confidently say no PBer watches more Sesame St than I do. It is on our tv for hours every day.
Therefore I don’t see this as news. It is relentless in trying to push acceptance & kindness, with several songs encouraging pride in black skin and hair. “I love my hair, there’s nothing else that can compare ... with my hair!”
These are on old YouTube vids so not recent additions. I am not complaining, I choose for my son to watch it, just surprised it’s a news item
To me it seems well-meant, but dangerous. A step away from enabling white supremacism. ‘Whiteness is an important part of who I am, I am proud of being white’. Why shouldn’t someone say that in response? Perfectly legitimate. Yet not great?
I think you do appreciate the difference but just in case. It depends on whether one is speaking from the default majority dominant position. For example: A society of black police officers. Probably fine. A society of white police officers. Hmm. Maybe not.
To me, most of this "but what if a white person/man/trump/etc said that?" stuff is really quite palpably silly. Not always, just occasionally it makes a good point, but usually it is.
I've been lucky enough to visit the panama canal on a number of occasions, its quite something to see these massive vessels up close and the shear volume of them passing through every day.
The Suez Canal is strangely disappointing. A bit of dreary desert with a water channel
The Corinth canal, which was commenced 2,000 years ago, is magnificent
You can't really claim to have seen ship canals until you've seen the Manchester Ship Canal - oldest ship canal in the world (by characteristically Mancunian sleight-of-conditionality - basically the older ones don't count for various reasons).
Ah, the Huddersfield is the biggest town in the UK gambit (because anything bigger has been incorrectly labelled as a city at some time or another).
Just to say I personally know of 3 people fully vaccinated (pfizer) weeks ago who now test positive. Brazilian variant. 1 of them is quite sick.
You’re back! Good.
Don’t be so sensitive about criticism of the EU. You should see this site when we turn on Her Majesty’s Government. We don’t exactly restrain ourselves
And your view from Germany is nearly always interesting and valuable
Just to say I personally know of 3 people fully vaccinated (pfizer) weeks ago who now test positive. Brazilian variant. 1 of them is quite sick.
I'm very sorry to hear about that, and hope that they recover soon.
Out of interest, where about are they?
Regardless, it strengthens my belief that hotel quarantine will be required for all international travel this summer.
Düsseldorf. Not sure if the one who is sick was a non-responder to the vaccines - no antibodies were taken before he got sick, the other 2 (asymptomatic so far) probably got it from him I guess. But it's spooking us out.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Both can be true. Both urges can exist in the same person. eg me
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
We are of like mind. Will endure financially too.
Institute for Governemnt: "...even though the costs of coronavirus this year are enormous – over £300bn – these could easily be dwarfed by much bigger costs in the future, although these are even more uncertain than the costs this year"
Those who think the government has charted the right course, with compulsory rather than voluntary lockdowns, need to answer the question of what happens in, say, ten years when a different virus causes another pandemic - and then another a period after that.
Putting aside the dubious legality of pausing liberal democracy and the rights and liberties it entails, it seems obvious to me that the response has been an error because simple philosophy can be used to expose it as such. If you believe that it was right to put us in so much debt by the extreme prioritisation of death stats over any other considerations then you are committed to arguing for a similar policy response when it happens again - and again - and again. This is obviously impossible, so the initial response must have itself been an error.
Are you just questioning the fine balance of Law vs Info/Guidance? Or are you saying the whole approach was wrong and there should have been zero or minimal government restrictions on behaviour?
The former (I'm not a Covid denier however you define it!) but the main thing is that I think that matters of liberty and the economy have been under-priced in the initial panic that we and other nations experienced. And we are continuing to underprice them - hindered by a populist government which is frightened by its own shadow. If there is eventually a public inquiry this, for me, is the main thing to address.
I said back in March last year that Johnson should be flanked by a public health authority, a chief economist and a philosopher rather than just the former and I haven't wavered from this. At bottom I don't agree that health is the most important thing. I think that our liberal democracy is - our way, our system, of living. To see this, how is it that we require referenda to leave the EU and for Scotland to leave the UK (or any other constitutional matter that lies BELOW liberal democracy) but not for our very rights and liberties themselves to be stripped from us?
That's an interesting point. Polls seem to show that any referendum would have been won fairly easily (and of course, it wouldn't have been plausible to arrange one for the first lockdown, but could have been done via postal vote or similar for later legislation).
I suspect, had there been a widespread lack of support for lockdown then it would have fallen sooner or not been repeated as law. The glib response of course is that our elected representatives have acquiesced and, of course, they could also have taken us out of the EU - and likely would have done had that been the government's wish - the referendum was not intended to take us out of the EU, any more than granting the Scottish referendum was intended to end in Scottish independence.
I do think we'll see a massive change in opinion and a lot more opposition in parliament if restrictions were to continue after vaccination is completed (I also don't think restrictions will continue). I'll be voting for the party that challenges those restrictions if they continue longer than I believe necessary (well, I might draw the line at Farage-party v3, but for any sane party...)
Indeed. Beautifully written and all ostensibly true, but sadly devoid of practical solutions. To summarise. Change happens. Change is hard and creates winners and losers. Usually the haves are the winners. There has been a lot of change this past year. Twas ever thus.
I've been lucky enough to visit the panama canal on a number of occasions, its quite something to see these massive vessels up close and the shear volume of them passing through every day.
The Suez Canal is strangely disappointing. A bit of dreary desert with a water channel
The Corinth canal, which was commenced 2,000 years ago, is magnificent
You can't really claim to have seen ship canals until you've seen the Manchester Ship Canal - oldest ship canal in the world (by characteristically Mancunian sleight-of-conditionality - basically the older ones don't count for various reasons). 100 years ago, Manchester was the third biggest port in the UK. (Well, Salford - again, you have to use Mancunian sleight of language here).
It didn't cut weeks off a sea route. But it got one over on Liverpool (who were massively overcharging for port facilities) - which is ultimately what matters.
I've seen that claim before about the success of the Manchester Ship Canal but is there any data to back it up ?
Wiki seems to cast doubt:
The canal was completed just as the Long Depression was coming to an end, but it was never the commercial success its sponsors had hoped for. At first gross revenue was less than a quarter of expected net revenue, and throughout at least the first nineteen years of the canal it was unable to make a profit or meet the interest payments to the Corporation of Manchester. Many ship owners were reluctant to dispatch ocean-going vessels along a "locked cul-de-sac" at a maximum speed of 6 knots (11 km/h; 6.9 mph). The Ship Canal Company found it difficult to attract a diversified export trade, which meant that ships frequently had to return down the canal loaded with ballast rather than freight. The only staple imports attracted to the Port of Manchester were lamp oil and bananas, the latter from 1902 until 1911. As the import trade in oil began to grow during the 20th century the balance of canal traffic switched to the west, from Salford to Stanlow, eventually culminating in the closure of the docks at Salford. Historian Thomas Stuart Willan has observed that "What may seem to require explanation is not the comparative failure of the Ship Canal but the unquenchable vitality of the myth of its success".
One other element is that we can analyse the effectiveness of each of the NPIs. There's been quite a lot done on this, but for some reason, Governments have been slow to take it on board. In addition the relative lack of outdoor spread seems to have been ignored, even now.
Right now, I would, if I was in Government, try to balance the fraying of lockdown by relaxing one area early that we know is least likely to cause spikes. Essentially, I'd bring the following element of Step 2 forwards from 12th April to 29th March:
"[reopening of] most outdoor attractions and settings including outdoor hospitality venues, zoos, theme parks, and drive-in cinemas. Self-contained accommodation such as campsites and holiday lets, where indoor facilities are not shared with other households, can also reopen.
Hospitality venues will be allowed to serve people outdoors at Step 2 and there will be no need for customers to order a substantial meal with alcoholic drinks and no curfew, although customers must order, eat and drink while seated (‘table service’). Wider social contact rules will apply in all these settings to prevent indoor mixing between different households."
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
Maybe. For most normal politicians all four wheels would have come off following prorogation and the failure to die in a ditch. To torture the metaphor, Johnson has proved capable of convincing enough of the voters that he drives the Emperor's New Car, which is happily whizzing around, floating in mid-air with no need of wheels.
You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
Yes, I'm still very wary of him. He has the x factor, no question. It's irritating to put it mildly. But I see hard economic times ahead and I'm thinking (hoping) people will start to get a bit more serious about who is in charge.
My view too...in theory.But this week we have a reduction in the unemployment rate. How can that be?
Smoke, mirrors and hocus-pocus magic seem to be working just fine. So maybe, despite Covid and despite Brexit, it is an onwards and upwards march for the economy. I don't see how myself as a former student of economics, but then again I am not a member of the PB Brains Trust glitterati..
I can confidently say no PBer watches more Sesame St than I do. It is on our tv for hours every day.
Therefore I don’t see this as news. It is relentless in trying to push acceptance & kindness, with several songs encouraging pride in black skin and hair. “I love my hair, there’s nothing else that can compare ... with my hair!”
These are on old YouTube vids so not recent additions. I am not complaining, I choose for my son to watch it, just surprised it’s a news item
To me it seems well-meant, but dangerous. A step away from enabling white supremacism. ‘Whiteness is an important part of who I am, I am proud of being white’. Why shouldn’t someone say that in response? Perfectly legitimate. Yet not great?
I think you do appreciate the difference but just in case. It depends on whether one is speaking from the default majority dominant position. For example: A society of black police officers. Probably fine. A society of white police officers. Hmm. Maybe not.
To me, most of this "but what if a white person/man/trump/etc said that?" stuff is really quite palpably silly. Not always, just occasionally it makes a good point, but usually it is.
And it is here.
And just like that, the left's inability to resist overreaching themselves turned racism into a contingent instead of an absolute and universal evil. What's more, they thought this was an immensely clever thing to do, not realizing that they had just cut the moral foundations out from under their own feet.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Both can be true. Both urges can exist in the same person. eg me
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
We are of like mind. Will endure financially too.
Institute for Governemnt: "...even though the costs of coronavirus this year are enormous – over £300bn – these could easily be dwarfed by much bigger costs in the future, although these are even more uncertain than the costs this year"
Those who think the government has charted the right course, with compulsory rather than voluntary lockdowns, need to answer the question of what happens in, say, ten years when a different virus causes another pandemic - and then another a period after that.
Putting aside the dubious legality of pausing liberal democracy and the rights and liberties it entails, it seems obvious to me that the response has been an error because simple philosophy can be used to expose it as such. If you believe that it was right to put us in so much debt by the extreme prioritisation of death stats over any other considerations then you are committed to arguing for a similar policy response when it happens again - and again - and again. This is obviously impossible, so the initial response must have itself been an error.
That is to assume that we've learned nothing from the first time around. Which is clearly nonsense.
Look at the reposes of Taiwan and S.Korea - that was largely down to their having experienced SARS. With a better public health surveillance system, new techniques for rapid testing, and an appreciation that early detection and effective isolation of infected individuals can prevent pandemic spread, it need not happen again.
A decent stock of FFP2 masks wouldn't harm, either.
Leaving aside whether you are being overly optimistic or me being overly pessimistic, you seem to be conceding that those who are 'happy' for our economy and liberties to be trashed would, in principle, accept this again in the future?
No, I'm saying that if it happens again we have the choice of being UK redux, Brazil, or something more akin to Taiwan. You appear to be advocating Brazil.
Sorry, I don't know much about Brazil but I think they've pretty much ignored it and gone on regardless? If so, no I'm not advocating that.
I'm hoping that some serious planning including the obvious health provisions but also a fighting fund is set up for future eventualities and also I question the legality of what has been done and I'm very surprised it hasn't been challenged. There has no doubt been a lot to learn but you are more optimistic than I am about future preparedness.
At least I've got you all going this evening. I know my view is niche. I'm shocked that it is so niche though.
Indian takeaway for dinner so things are looking up.
I don't think your views are that niche - simply in the minority. My point, though, is that the argument over where the balance lies between liberty and public safety is a pretty fruitless one in the face of a pandemic. By the time you've worked out where you think it lies (and all viruses are different, so the balance between hazard and mitigation is going to vary), it's too late to be useful. And as we've seen, even if you take no legal measures, your economy is still likely to suffer mightily.
I'd rather finesse the argument by better prevention.
On that score, here's a timely article on developing vaccines for future potential pandemics. The investments suggested are trivial in absolute global terms, or compared to what this pandemic has cost.
Variant-proof vaccines — invest now for the next pandemic https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00340-4 ...Already there are pockets of promise. Rational design has delivered a favourable vaccine, currently in phase III trials, against respiratory syncytial virus — the cause of severe, sometimes fatal, illness in the very young. That virus has defied conventional vaccine-development efforts for more than 50 years. Rational design approaches are under way for major pathogens such as HIV, influenza and malaria, although not on the scale we suggest here.
Crucially, early containment or eradication of an emerging virus would greatly reduce the likelihood of it evolving resistance to antibodies and vaccines.
Unlike a reactive programme that swings into action when a new pathogen appears, our proposal has goals that can be described now and projects that could begin on a large scale immediately. Thanks to work already done on other viruses, particularly HIV and influenza, the approaches are understood and the infrastructure is in place. Investments made so far in basic science — including virology, genomics, immunology and structural biology — have afforded us a remarkable opportunity to get ahead of further SARS-CoV-2 evolution and put us in a powerful position of readiness for new viral pathogens...
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Both can be true. Both urges can exist in the same person. eg me
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
We are of like mind. Will endure financially too.
Institute for Governemnt: "...even though the costs of coronavirus this year are enormous – over £300bn – these could easily be dwarfed by much bigger costs in the future, although these are even more uncertain than the costs this year"
Those who think the government has charted the right course, with compulsory rather than voluntary lockdowns, need to answer the question of what happens in, say, ten years when a different virus causes another pandemic - and then another a period after that.
Putting aside the dubious legality of pausing liberal democracy and the rights and liberties it entails, it seems obvious to me that the response has been an error because simple philosophy can be used to expose it as such. If you believe that it was right to put us in so much debt by the extreme prioritisation of death stats over any other considerations then you are committed to arguing for a similar policy response when it happens again - and again - and again. This is obviously impossible, so the initial response must have itself been an error.
Are you just questioning the fine balance of Law vs Info/Guidance? Or are you saying the whole approach was wrong and there should have been zero or minimal government restrictions on behaviour?
The former (I'm not a Covid denier however you define it!) but the main thing is that I think that matters of liberty and the economy have been under-priced in the initial panic that we and other nations experienced. And we are continuing to underprice them - hindered by a populist government which is frightened by its own shadow. If there is eventually a public inquiry this, for me, is the main thing to address.
I said back in March last year that Johnson should be flanked by a public health authority, a chief economist and a philosopher rather than just the former and I haven't wavered from this. At bottom I don't agree that health is the most important thing. I think that our liberal democracy is - our way, our system, of living. To see this, how is it that we require referenda to leave the EU and for Scotland to leave the UK (or any other constitutional matter that lies BELOW liberal democracy) but not for our very rights and liberties themselves to be stripped from us?
That's an interesting point. Polls seem to show that any referendum would have been won fairly easily (and of course, it wouldn't have been plausible to arrange one for the first lockdown, but could have been done via postal vote or similar for later legislation).
I suspect, had there been a widespread lack of support for lockdown then it would have fallen sooner or not been repeated as law. The glib response of course is that our elected representatives have acquiesced and, of course, they could also have taken us out of the EU - and likely would have done had that been the government's wish - the referendum was not intended to take us out of the EU, any more than granting the Scottish referendum was intended to end in Scottish independence.
I do think we'll see a massive change in opinion and a lot more opposition in parliament if restrictions were to continue after vaccination is completed (I also don't think restrictions will continue). I'll be voting for the party that challenges those restrictions if they continue longer than I believe necessary (well, I might draw the line at Farage-party v3, but for any sane party...)
I also argued from the outset that the government should not be following just medical science advice, but be factoring in economic, social equity and other considerations into its COVID decision-making. Health - particularly when it is life and death - is certainly at the very top of our needs as individuals and as a society. But it is not the be-all-and-end-all.
I've been lucky enough to visit the panama canal on a number of occasions, its quite something to see these massive vessels up close and the shear volume of them passing through every day.
The Suez Canal is strangely disappointing. A bit of dreary desert with a water channel
The Corinth canal, which was commenced 2,000 years ago, is magnificent
You can't really claim to have seen ship canals until you've seen the Manchester Ship Canal - oldest ship canal in the world (by characteristically Mancunian sleight-of-conditionality - basically the older ones don't count for various reasons). 100 years ago, Manchester was the third biggest port in the UK. (Well, Salford - again, you have to use Mancunian sleight of language here).
It didn't cut weeks off a sea route. But it got one over on Liverpool (who were massively overcharging for port facilities) - which is ultimately what matters.
I've seen that claim before about the success of the Manchester Ship Canal but is there any data to back it up ?
Wiki seems to cast doubt:
The canal was completed just as the Long Depression was coming to an end, but it was never the commercial success its sponsors had hoped for. At first gross revenue was less than a quarter of expected net revenue, and throughout at least the first nineteen years of the canal it was unable to make a profit or meet the interest payments to the Corporation of Manchester. Many ship owners were reluctant to dispatch ocean-going vessels along a "locked cul-de-sac" at a maximum speed of 6 knots (11 km/h; 6.9 mph). The Ship Canal Company found it difficult to attract a diversified export trade, which meant that ships frequently had to return down the canal loaded with ballast rather than freight. The only staple imports attracted to the Port of Manchester were lamp oil and bananas, the latter from 1902 until 1911. As the import trade in oil began to grow during the 20th century the balance of canal traffic switched to the west, from Salford to Stanlow, eventually culminating in the closure of the docks at Salford. Historian Thomas Stuart Willan has observed that "What may seem to require explanation is not the comparative failure of the Ship Canal but the unquenchable vitality of the myth of its success".
3 local by elections today - all defended by Nationalists. PC defence in North Wales and SNP defences in Scotland. One sad note - we have the first by-election due to Covid death.
One other element is that we can analyse the effectiveness of each of the NPIs. There's been quite a lot done on this, but for some reason, Governments have been slow to take it on board. In addition the relative lack of outdoor spread seems to have been ignored, even now.
Right now, I would, if I was in Government, try to balance the fraying of lockdown by relaxing one area early that we know is least likely to cause spikes. Essentially, I'd bring the following element of Step 2 forwards from 12th April to 29th March:
"[reopening of] most outdoor attractions and settings including outdoor hospitality venues, zoos, theme parks, and drive-in cinemas. Self-contained accommodation such as campsites and holiday lets, where indoor facilities are not shared with other households, can also reopen.
Hospitality venues will be allowed to serve people outdoors at Step 2 and there will be no need for customers to order a substantial meal with alcoholic drinks and no curfew, although customers must order, eat and drink while seated (‘table service’). Wider social contact rules will apply in all these settings to prevent indoor mixing between different households."
That, along with an end to these new daily proposals for indefinite lockdown restrictions post vaccination, would do me.
Friend of mine - male, 40s, no health issues, north London - has just been told he’s getting his first dose next week.
Intriguing. So they’re moving on to the 40s? At least here
59, still waiting. Sigh.
I thought you could just go on the NHS website and book?
Apparently not, in Scotland
Imagine if it was the other way around, Boris and Hancock would be getting battered pillar to post. The online booking service has been another quiet success, especially given how piss poor normally anything government and IT is.
Friend of mine - male, 40s, no health issues, north London - has just been told he’s getting his first dose next week.
Intriguing. So they’re moving on to the 40s? At least here
I wonder whether London - having no old people - is moving down the age ranges more quickly?
I'm in my mid 40s and haven't heard a peep. But getting on for half of those around me seem to have jabbed for various reasons - asthma, epilepsy, having autistic children, living with elderly parents, etc.
Another Huddersfield claim - at one time it had the highest proportion of Rolls Royce owners in the country. Until fairly recently it had a car showroom entirely devoted to them.
Look at all the HATS. 100% of people on the ground have headwear of some kind.
Was there a year when we suddenly stopped wearing hats? Was it a worldwide decision? Did the League of Nations issue a decree against hats? Odd
As somone who does generally wear a hat, and get funny looks for doing so (though maybe it's me they are giving funny looks), this has bothered me for years. Even 50 years ago look at footage of a football march and people with flatcaps. What happened to all the milliners?
Wait until the EU find out that more than 100% of our 75-79 year olds have had the vaccine.
Given 65% of 50 to 54s have been jabbed, if this had been a few weeks ago they would have been telling 45+ to start booking their appointments. IIRC it was about 2/3rds done of one group before starting on the next to ensure there was a steady flow of people being jabbed. I suspect now they are not because they are aware that 2nd jabs are rapidly increasing and they won't have the supplies to do it.
Having said that my 44yo wife got a call today to go in for her jab today. She was on a reserve list due to being a teacher. Within an hour she had had the jab (AZ). No such luck for me as someone who works from home.
Friend of mine - male, 40s, no health issues, north London - has just been told he’s getting his first dose next week.
Intriguing. So they’re moving on to the 40s? At least here
V. intriguing. I thought doctors had been written to by the NHS and told NOT to vaccinate any more under 50s as the supplies now needed for second doses?
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Both can be true. Both urges can exist in the same person. eg me
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
We are of like mind. Will endure financially too.
Institute for Governemnt: "...even though the costs of coronavirus this year are enormous – over £300bn – these could easily be dwarfed by much bigger costs in the future, although these are even more uncertain than the costs this year"
Those who think the government has charted the right course, with compulsory rather than voluntary lockdowns, need to answer the question of what happens in, say, ten years when a different virus causes another pandemic - and then another a period after that.
Putting aside the dubious legality of pausing liberal democracy and the rights and liberties it entails, it seems obvious to me that the response has been an error because simple philosophy can be used to expose it as such. If you believe that it was right to put us in so much debt by the extreme prioritisation of death stats over any other considerations then you are committed to arguing for a similar policy response when it happens again - and again - and again. This is obviously impossible, so the initial response must have itself been an error.
Are you just questioning the fine balance of Law vs Info/Guidance? Or are you saying the whole approach was wrong and there should have been zero or minimal government restrictions on behaviour?
The former (I'm not a Covid denier however you define it!) but the main thing is that I think that matters of liberty and the economy have been under-priced in the initial panic that we and other nations experienced. And we are continuing to underprice them - hindered by a populist government which is frightened by its own shadow. If there is eventually a public inquiry this, for me, is the main thing to address.
I said back in March last year that Johnson should be flanked by a public health authority, a chief economist and a philosopher rather than just the former and I haven't wavered from this. At bottom I don't agree that health is the most important thing. I think that our liberal democracy is - our way, our system, of living. To see this, how is it that we require referenda to leave the EU and for Scotland to leave the UK (or any other constitutional matter that lies BELOW liberal democracy) but not for our very rights and liberties themselves to be stripped from us?
Agree with you to an extent. This is a shallow populist government. Oh boy it is. And we probably could have had less law and more 'trust the people'. There certainly should have been more critical scrutiny. But on the big picture, once the bug had got going here, I don't see as there was a realistic alternative to quite serious restrictions on people's behaviour for the time needed to squash the spread and stop the catastrophe of the NHS collapsing. Which we only just did, remember. It reached the very edge of its capacity in both waves. And even that was with non-covid health problems de-prioritized to the point of neglect.
Christ that is a very big number - especially given the measure in place. WTF is going on?
And it’s very odd why France, Italy and Poland are doing so much worse than Germany and Spain. Variants must be an issue but do they explain the whole disparity? Covid has been a conundrum from the start, and it continues
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Both can be true. Both urges can exist in the same person. eg me
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
We are of like mind. Will endure financially too.
Institute for Governemnt: "...even though the costs of coronavirus this year are enormous – over £300bn – these could easily be dwarfed by much bigger costs in the future, although these are even more uncertain than the costs this year"
Those who think the government has charted the right course, with compulsory rather than voluntary lockdowns, need to answer the question of what happens in, say, ten years when a different virus causes another pandemic - and then another a period after that.
Putting aside the dubious legality of pausing liberal democracy and the rights and liberties it entails, it seems obvious to me that the response has been an error because simple philosophy can be used to expose it as such. If you believe that it was right to put us in so much debt by the extreme prioritisation of death stats over any other considerations then you are committed to arguing for a similar policy response when it happens again - and again - and again. This is obviously impossible, so the initial response must have itself been an error.
Are you just questioning the fine balance of Law vs Info/Guidance? Or are you saying the whole approach was wrong and there should have been zero or minimal government restrictions on behaviour?
The former (I'm not a Covid denier however you define it!) but the main thing is that I think that matters of liberty and the economy have been under-priced in the initial panic that we and other nations experienced. And we are continuing to underprice them - hindered by a populist government which is frightened by its own shadow. If there is eventually a public inquiry this, for me, is the main thing to address.
I said back in March last year that Johnson should be flanked by a public health authority, a chief economist and a philosopher rather than just the former and I haven't wavered from this. At bottom I don't agree that health is the most important thing. I think that our liberal democracy is - our way, our system, of living. To see this, how is it that we require referenda to leave the EU and for Scotland to leave the UK (or any other constitutional matter that lies BELOW liberal democracy) but not for our very rights and liberties themselves to be stripped from us?
That's an interesting point. Polls seem to show that any referendum would have been won fairly easily (and of course, it wouldn't have been plausible to arrange one for the first lockdown, but could have been done via postal vote or similar for later legislation).
I suspect, had there been a widespread lack of support for lockdown then it would have fallen sooner or not been repeated as law. The glib response of course is that our elected representatives have acquiesced and, of course, they could also have taken us out of the EU - and likely would have done had that been the government's wish - the referendum was not intended to take us out of the EU, any more than granting the Scottish referendum was intended to end in Scottish independence.
I do think we'll see a massive change in opinion and a lot more opposition in parliament if restrictions were to continue after vaccination is completed (I also don't think restrictions will continue). I'll be voting for the party that challenges those restrictions if they continue longer than I believe necessary (well, I might draw the line at Farage-party v3, but for any sane party...)
It's interesting from a German point of view, because it is clear that the German constitution has hampered the fight against coronavirus - the central government seems to have in many ways very little power, several (regional/local) anti-coronavirus measures have been thrown out by the courts as unconstitutional.
But on the other hand, the constitution (or "Grundgesetz" as it's called, but that's another story), was written with the aim of hindering as far as possible the rise to power of a dictator. This pandemic is probably the first real stress-test, and looked at one way the constitution is doing the job it was written to do.
I also don't really think the constitution is a good excuse for the biggest pandemic failures. The federal government does have power over international borders, and should be able to organise vaccination procurement.
I've been lucky enough to visit the panama canal on a number of occasions, its quite something to see these massive vessels up close and the shear volume of them passing through every day.
The Suez Canal is strangely disappointing. A bit of dreary desert with a water channel
The Corinth canal, which was commenced 2,000 years ago, is magnificent
As I am sure you know, the panama canal cuts through the rainforest. The Gamboa resort has spectacular views of it and the canal. Sitting eating your breakfast watching the monkeys play and these giant container ships potter past is quite a contrast.
Never been. Would love to go. I was meant to be doing Central America... then covid. Sigh
Not a canal, but as a shipping thoroughfare the Bosphorus is a fun watch. Had a friend with a roof terrace overlooking it. Every imaginable type of vessel went past.
Comments
How many container ships, oil/gas tankers, or other bulk transport vessels are there?
--AS
https://twitter.com/politicsforali/status/1375114125630705674?s=21
Which is clearly nonsense.
Look at the reposes of Taiwan and S.Korea - that was largely down to their having experienced SARS.
With a better public health surveillance system, new techniques for rapid testing, and an appreciation that early detection and effective isolation of infected individuals can prevent pandemic spread, it need not happen again.
A decent stock of FFP2 masks wouldn't harm, either.
This time, we were woefully unprepared (as commented below by LostPassword). But we presently have massively increased infrastructure for vaccine production and for testing. Even, somewhat, for contact tracing. If we get another pandemic in the next few years, we'll be better prepared. We'll be better at testing, mass testing, which could be key. We should be able to limit spread/hospitalisations more without such severe lockdowns. South Korea has shown it can be done.
If there's a long time until the next pandemic then we'll no doubt get complacent. Capacity won't be kept up to scratch as there will be other more urgent things to spend money on. We'll get caught out again. But if it's far in the future then capacity to lock down again will be there.
I don't think snow/extreme weather is that bad an analogy. Every few years we have complete chaos here when there's heavy snow. It doesn't happen that often and, although the costs are huge, we don't consider the disruption and cost of being snow ready to be worth it. In Scandinavia, where snow is a common issue, they adapt and spend the money on infrastructure. We'll do the same, if pandemics become more common, we'll find other ways of making life go on as normal, through increased infrastructure for testing/tracing, increased hospital capacity, accepting more deaths.
We could really use their help.
I would be extremely wary of doing any deal with an organisation like that. And it’s not as if you lack customers elsewhere
The Corinth canal, which was commenced 2,000 years ago, is magnificent
Interestingly you may of heard that Sabastian Coe appeared on the BBC and an ENT doctor called the BBC to say he should contact a doctor ASAP if his voice had been like that for more than a couple of weeks. His symptoms started the same time as mine and he lives very close to me. I have never met him or even seen him locally, but who knows.
No doubt there will be another pandemic, but with any luck it will be only as infectious as flu. In that case, much milder NPIs may keep a lid on it and/or keep it out of vulnerable populations (flu R0 is usually less than 2, often much less). It's only the real nasties like measles, polio, and smallpox that spread so fast that lockdowns are necessary in the absence of vaccines.
*well, SARS may have been as contagious as SARS-CoV-2, but generally not until you had a temperature. This made control a lot easier.
I was thinking, a few weeks back, what would have happened if COVID had appeared 20 years ago. It almost doesn't bear thinking about. Despite the tragedies that have occurred, and for all that it doesn't feel like it, we have probably been lucky that it -- just! -- arrived in the era of MRNA and vectored vaccine development.
--AS
You appear to be advocating Brazil.
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2BH2GY
https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/why-manufacturing-covid-vaccines-at-scale-is-hard/4013429.article
https://twitter.com/shelltop8/status/1375122432009383941?s=21
I said back in March last year that Johnson should be flanked by a public health authority, a chief economist and a philosopher rather than just the former and I haven't wavered from this. At bottom I don't agree that health is the most important thing. I think that our liberal democracy is - our way, our system, of living. To see this, how is it that we require referenda to leave the EU and for Scotland to leave the UK (or any other constitutional matter that lies BELOW liberal democracy) but not for our very rights and liberties themselves to be stripped from us?
--AS
Never been. Would love to go. I was meant to be doing Central America... then covid. Sigh
What would have made a difference is getting on top of the virus earlier and hopefully we will do that next time.
I'm hoping that some serious planning including the obvious health provisions but also a fighting fund is set up for future eventualities and also I question the legality of what has been done and I'm very surprised it hasn't been challenged. There has no doubt been a lot to learn but you are more optimistic than I am about future preparedness.
At least I've got you all going this evening. I know my view is niche. I'm shocked that it is so niche though.
Indian takeaway for dinner so things are looking up.
--AS
Having said that, I suspect that some of our success in backing the right nags wasn't just luck, but was down to the experience and skill of Kate Bingham and her team. Certainly she seems, early on, to have backed all the eventual front-runners, with the exception of Moderna which they bought into later. Of course, she probably understood that Moderna weren't likely to be able to deliver early to the UK anyway.
And I think we might be on track for another UK procurement success, with Novavax coming through as a possible saviour against the South African variant.
https://twitter.com/scottygb/status/1375097581924139010?s=20
100 years ago, Manchester was the third biggest port in the UK. (Well, Salford - again, you have to use Mancunian sleight of language here).
It didn't cut weeks off a sea route. But it got one over on Liverpool (who were massively overcharging for port facilities) - which is ultimately what matters.
https://lookup.london/old-st-pancras-churchyard/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
Interesting to see all the biggies from when I was a child still at the top of the table
Out of interest, where about are they?
Regardless, it strengthens my belief that hotel quarantine will be required for all international travel this summer.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56521318
Austria accused other member states of taking more than their fair share of jabs
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9401147/Macron-delivers-humiliating-vaccine-mea-culpa-amid-EU-summit.html
(which is one thing that Sumption and co who keep going on about "why didn't we follow the previous plan?" seem to have difficulty grasping: the previous plan was a carefully considered course of action against a different threat - and we were following it for too long to start with).
On the voluntary-versus-compulsory lockdown thing: it runs into a problem that regardless of where else in the world you try to pick out, whenever we tried to rely on people short of lockdown here, spread grew. Too many people pub-crawling out of quarantine or arguing about Scotch eggs, or whatevernd too few people being willing to take responsibility for their own actions (NOT just their own risk, but the risk they possessed to others). How we solve that, I don't know.
An interesting way of looking at things.
"We’re living in a pornstar’s world
Lockdown is creating an unjust, atomised and deeply inhuman society
BY MARY HARRINGTON"
https://unherd.com/2021/03/were-living-in-a-pornstars-world/
To me, most of this "but what if a white person/man/trump/etc said that?" stuff is really quite palpably silly. Not always, just occasionally it makes a good point, but usually it is.
And it is here.
Don’t be so sensitive about criticism of the EU. You should see this site when we turn on Her Majesty’s Government. We don’t exactly restrain ourselves
And your view from Germany is nearly always interesting and valuable
PS I hope your acquaintances recuperate soon
I suspect, had there been a widespread lack of support for lockdown then it would have fallen sooner or not been repeated as law. The glib response of course is that our elected representatives have acquiesced and, of course, they could also have taken us out of the EU - and likely would have done had that been the government's wish - the referendum was not intended to take us out of the EU, any more than granting the Scottish referendum was intended to end in Scottish independence.
I do think we'll see a massive change in opinion and a lot more opposition in parliament if restrictions were to continue after vaccination is completed (I also don't think restrictions will continue). I'll be voting for the party that challenges those restrictions if they continue longer than I believe necessary (well, I might draw the line at Farage-party v3, but for any sane party...)
To summarise.
Change happens. Change is hard and creates winners and losers. Usually the haves are the winners.
There has been a lot of change this past year.
Twas ever thus.
Intriguing. So they’re moving on to the 40s? At least here
Wiki seems to cast doubt:
The canal was completed just as the Long Depression was coming to an end, but it was never the commercial success its sponsors had hoped for. At first gross revenue was less than a quarter of expected net revenue, and throughout at least the first nineteen years of the canal it was unable to make a profit or meet the interest payments to the Corporation of Manchester. Many ship owners were reluctant to dispatch ocean-going vessels along a "locked cul-de-sac" at a maximum speed of 6 knots (11 km/h; 6.9 mph). The Ship Canal Company found it difficult to attract a diversified export trade, which meant that ships frequently had to return down the canal loaded with ballast rather than freight. The only staple imports attracted to the Port of Manchester were lamp oil and bananas, the latter from 1902 until 1911. As the import trade in oil began to grow during the 20th century the balance of canal traffic switched to the west, from Salford to Stanlow, eventually culminating in the closure of the docks at Salford. Historian Thomas Stuart Willan has observed that "What may seem to require explanation is not the comparative failure of the Ship Canal but the unquenchable vitality of the myth of its success".
In addition the relative lack of outdoor spread seems to have been ignored, even now.
Right now, I would, if I was in Government, try to balance the fraying of lockdown by relaxing one area early that we know is least likely to cause spikes. Essentially, I'd bring the following element of Step 2 forwards from 12th April to 29th March:
"[reopening of] most outdoor attractions and settings including outdoor hospitality venues, zoos, theme parks, and drive-in cinemas. Self-contained accommodation such as campsites and holiday lets, where indoor facilities are not shared with other households, can also reopen.
Hospitality venues will be allowed to serve people outdoors at Step 2 and there will be no need for customers to order a substantial meal with alcoholic drinks and no curfew, although customers must order, eat and drink while seated (‘table service’). Wider social contact rules will apply in all these settings to prevent indoor mixing between different households."
https://twitter.com/Mediavenir/status/1375131448856940544
Smoke, mirrors and hocus-pocus magic seem to be working just fine. So maybe, despite Covid and despite Brexit, it is an onwards and upwards march for the economy. I don't see how myself as a former student of economics, but then again I am not a member of the PB Brains Trust glitterati..
My point, though, is that the argument over where the balance lies between liberty and public safety is a pretty fruitless one in the face of a pandemic. By the time you've worked out where you think it lies (and all viruses are different, so the balance between hazard and mitigation is going to vary), it's too late to be useful. And as we've seen, even if you take no legal measures, your economy is still likely to suffer mightily.
I'd rather finesse the argument by better prevention.
On that score, here's a timely article on developing vaccines for future potential pandemics. The investments suggested are trivial in absolute global terms, or compared to what this pandemic has cost.
Variant-proof vaccines — invest now for the next pandemic
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00340-4
...Already there are pockets of promise. Rational design has delivered a favourable vaccine, currently in phase III trials, against respiratory syncytial virus — the cause of severe, sometimes fatal, illness in the very young. That virus has defied conventional vaccine-development efforts for more than 50 years. Rational design approaches are under way for major pathogens such as HIV, influenza and malaria, although not on the scale we suggest here.
Crucially, early containment or eradication of an emerging virus would greatly reduce the likelihood of it evolving resistance to antibodies and vaccines.
Unlike a reactive programme that swings into action when a new pathogen appears, our proposal has goals that can be described now and projects that could begin on a large scale immediately. Thanks to work already done on other viruses, particularly HIV and influenza, the approaches are understood and the infrastructure is in place. Investments made so far in basic science — including virology, genomics, immunology and structural biology — have afforded us a remarkable opportunity to get ahead of further SARS-CoV-2 evolution and put us in a powerful position of readiness for new viral pathogens...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salford_Quays
I'm in my mid 40s and haven't heard a peep. But getting on for half of those around me seem to have jabbed for various reasons - asthma, epilepsy, having autistic children, living with elderly parents, etc.
https://twitter.com/CMichaelGibson/status/1374916171376570374
NEW THREAD
Having said that my 44yo wife got a call today to go in for her jab today. She was on a reserve list due to being a teacher. Within an hour she had had the jab (AZ). No such luck for me as someone who works from home.
But on the other hand, the constitution (or "Grundgesetz" as it's called, but that's another story), was written with the aim of hindering as far as possible the rise to power of a dictator. This pandemic is probably the first real stress-test, and looked at one way the constitution is doing the job it was written to do.
I also don't really think the constitution is a good excuse for the biggest pandemic failures. The federal government does have power over international borders, and should be able to organise vaccination procurement.