1. It was right that the government gambled taxpayers’ money, and it’s great that it’s paid off. Wonderful too that our state-run National Health Service has done such a good job in delivering the vaccine into people’s arms. 2. What’s less good is that our test and trace system (misnamed “NHS Test and Trace”) cost £34 billion. This is the system which the Public Accounts Committee Chair has said made “no measurable difference". It's the system for which private consultants were paid up to £6,250 per day even while Serco raked in profits. Such is capitalism. Given (1) and (2), it's no wonder that Johnson saw that he must withdraw his remark that “capitalism” and “greed” explain the United Kingdom’s successful vaccine roll-out. If he'd let it stand, people might have seen that he'd spoken the reverse of the truth even while proclaiming a bit of Tory dogma.
The £34 billion is the money put aside for the scheme, not what has been spent. The overwhelming amount has been spent on testing. The serco contract accounts for about £200million, which works out about 0.58% of the test and trace budget.
I still struggle to understand why anyone gives a flying f**k about what Owen Jones is wittering on about.
I used to get miffed by the constant media exposure of the one-man Marxist boy-band, but now I'm convinced that he's a net electoral asset to the non-insane side of the political spectrum. Keep on spreading the good word, Owen!
So no police officers were injured and none of their vehicles were set on fire, is that the claim? I'm afraid Labour's lefty agitators don't get let off the hook just because the rioters didn't manage to literally 'Kill The Bill'.
Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.
This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.
Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.
When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.
Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.
Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.
The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
Unloading the ship might have fun effects in terms of changing the stress on the hull. Ships don't evenly match buoyancy and load along their lengths to start with. This ship is now not floating at the ends.... You could very easily break her back...
Then you really have fun...
That really is huge. I've been on the USS Nimitz (one of the American nuclear-powered supercarriers) and that is 330m long - big enough for rows and rows of huge jet warplanes to be ranked along the deck. Add 20% to it and stack it with containers ...
Containerships are things of beauty and wonder. The amount they have increased in size/carrying capacity these past years is extraordinary. Not yet but perhaps at some point would like to do a cruise on one. Not via Suez, that said for the moment.
I was watching a doc about wartime German Commerce Raiders at the w/e.
A few of those had swimming pools on them.
And they had a far better ROI in terms of ships sunk than the Kriegsmarine.
So do diesels and some electrics (the last, of course, being steam trains themselves, only with the transmission being rather longer than the boiler to piston to con rod, and depending whether they use leccy from renewable sources or not).
If it uses coal it will be horrendous in terms of pollution, but theyre only really used for novelty purposes now.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
Maybe. For most normal politicians all four wheels would have come off following prorogation and the failure to die in a ditch. To torture the metaphor, Johnson has proved capable of convincing enough of the voters that he drives the Emperor's New Car, which is happily whizzing around, floating in mid-air with no need of wheels.
You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
To quote a shouted conversation between two middle aged men outside my house at 11.30 last night: "I hate Boris. Absolutely hate him. But as long as Labour keep behaving like spoiled kids I'm going to keep voting for him. He's not a racist. He's not a fascist, and when they say he is they look ridiculous." From what I could glean, his particular beef was the Bristol protestors, but I inferred that it extended to all shrill left wing voices. Now, you might reasonably say this seems a tad unfair on SKS etc. But in the mind if this fella at least a vote for Labour is a vote endorsing students attacking police stations, tearing down of statues, white guilt, EU vaccine madness and all the other fringe views which travel alongside Labour.
A tad unfair perhaps. SKS has tried to rid the Labour Party of some if its more Corbyny elements. But many people don't pay that much attention and easily conflate the two. My thesis is that the Tories do best when the left is at its maddest.
Maybe there are enough votes to be won without worrying about two Daily Mail readers gobbing outside your house? There are others who will be overheard saying 'Say what you like about Priti Patel but why should we pay money to keep these people in prison......'.
One of the things I liked about Corbyn was he did what HE believed to be right not what Paul Dacre did. His only problem was that he wasn't competent.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
Maybe. For most normal politicians all four wheels would have come off following prorogation and the failure to die in a ditch. To torture the metaphor, Johnson has proved capable of convincing enough of the voters that he drives the Emperor's New Car, which is happily whizzing around, floating in mid-air with no need of wheels.
You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
To quote a shouted conversation between two middle aged men outside my house at 11.30 last night: "I hate Boris. Absolutely hate him. But as long as Labour keep behaving like spoiled kids I'm going to keep voting for him. He's not a racist. He's not a fascist, and when they say he is they look ridiculous." From what I could glean, his particular beef was the Bristol protestors, but I inferred that it extended to all shrill left wing voices. Now, you might reasonably say this seems a tad unfair on SKS etc. But in the mind if this fella at least a vote for Labour is a vote endorsing students attacking police stations, tearing down of statues, white guilt, EU vaccine madness and all the other fringe views which travel alongside Labour.
A tad unfair perhaps. SKS has tried to rid the Labour Party of some if its more Corbyny elements. But many people don't pay that much attention and easily conflate the two. My thesis is that the Tories do best when the left is at its maddest.
Maybe there are enough votes to be won without worrying about two Daily Mail readers gobbing outside your house? There are others who will be overheard saying 'Say what you like about Priti Patel but why should we pay money to keep these people in prison......'.
One of the things I liked about Corbyn was he did what HE believed to be right not what Paul Dacre did. His only problem was that he wasn't competent.
Ah yes, obviously, if you don't like rich, middle class, privately educated progressive kids acting like spoilt brats and behaving appallingly, you are obviously a Daily Mail reader who fantasises about being dominated by Priti Patel? Ok......
He's still fine, though. Vaccination certificates would be proving he's had a vaccine, not who he is. Like being asked to produce a driving license just proves you have the right to drive a vehicle.
Because driving licences are never used as a form of identification.....
Unless you want the certificate to be transferable I'm sure it will need both pictures and words to identify the recipient.
Thanks for the article Mike. I think the fault line with the 1945 analogy is that Labour were actually offering something radical and genuinely appealing to people in that election, namely the Welfare State and a new way of living. SKS is offering.....?
(actually he probably is but not in a good way - if Labour was ever to win, the radical left would take it as carte blanche to unleash their orthodoxies as is happening in the States).
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
So if a variant has an R0 of 3 or above we'll still need NPIs?
Not affordable. Just learn to live with it.
What's an NPI ?
If infection continues to grow even though we're all vaccinated then by default r(t) is over 1. The newly infected people then have more immunity than previously (Whether unvaxed or vaxed) so r(t) drops as a result of it's own infections. Eventually it goes away or becomes seasonal low level endemic, like the flu. But it's not a pandemic any more.
Between 1950 and 2000 so many people used to say that Germany was ultra-efficient that it must have been true. I don't know what's gone wrong since then in that regard.
I still struggle to understand why anyone gives a flying f**k about what Owen Jones is wittering on about.
I used to get miffed by the constant media exposure of the one-man Marxist boy-band, but now I'm convinced that he's a net electoral asset to the non-insane side of the political spectrum. Keep on spreading the good word, Owen!
Nonsense. Whittome was rightly criticised for failing to condemn violence among the protesters, and no-one has denied that the protests were in fact violent - just the extent.
But there was nevertheless a one eyed stampede to judgement - as we've seen before sometimes.
Most people never see £50 notes. Perhaps an entrepreneur will knock out framed fifties to the gay tech nerd war historian crossover demographic. I'd buy one.
Inadvisable to carry them. They are regularly forged.
I still struggle to understand why anyone gives a flying f**k about what Owen Jones is wittering on about.
I used to get miffed by the constant media exposure of the one-man Marxist boy-band, but now I'm convinced that he's a net electoral asset to the non-insane side of the political spectrum. Keep on spreading the good word, Owen!
So no police officers were injured and none of their vehicles were set on fire, is that the claim? I'm afraid Labour's lefty agitators don't get let off the hook just because the rioters didn't manage to literally 'Kill The Bill'.
Just to get a better picture of events. Much nonsense was talked.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
Why can't they use the chip that's already in passports to hold information on vaccines?
It'll only take about 65 days to give everyone a first jab at this rate. I know the average is slightly lower than 580k. But 65 days to pubs being open without vaccine passports is something to look forward to.
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
Maybe. For most normal politicians all four wheels would have come off following prorogation and the failure to die in a ditch. To torture the metaphor, Johnson has proved capable of convincing enough of the voters that he drives the Emperor's New Car, which is happily whizzing around, floating in mid-air with no need of wheels.
You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
To quote a shouted conversation between two middle aged men outside my house at 11.30 last night: "I hate Boris. Absolutely hate him. But as long as Labour keep behaving like spoiled kids I'm going to keep voting for him. He's not a racist. He's not a fascist, and when they say he is they look ridiculous." From what I could glean, his particular beef was the Bristol protestors, but I inferred that it extended to all shrill left wing voices. Now, you might reasonably say this seems a tad unfair on SKS etc. But in the mind if this fella at least a vote for Labour is a vote endorsing students attacking police stations, tearing down of statues, white guilt, EU vaccine madness and all the other fringe views which travel alongside Labour.
A tad unfair perhaps. SKS has tried to rid the Labour Party of some if its more Corbyny elements. But many people don't pay that much attention and easily conflate the two. My thesis is that the Tories do best when the left is at its maddest.
Maybe there are enough votes to be won without worrying about two Daily Mail readers gobbing outside your house? There are others who will be overheard saying 'Say what you like about Priti Patel but why should we pay money to keep these people in prison......'.
One of the things I liked about Corbyn was he did what HE believed to be right not what Paul Dacre did. His only problem was that he wasn't competent.
You misunderstand me Roger. My point, illustrated by an anecdote only for a little colour, was in response to LostPassword and kinbalu speculating on the support Boris has. My suggestion is that his buoyancy in the polls is not driven by wild levels of enthusiasm for Boris, but by opposition to 'the left' as a whole - which is rather unfair on SKS, who knows the toxicity of the wilder elements of the left and has striven to distance himself and his party from them; but, you know, people don't pay that much attention between elections to who exactly supports what.
Between 1950 and 2000 so many people used to say that Germany was ultra-efficient that it must have been true. I don't know what's gone wrong since then in that regard.
This is a data privacy issue - they don't know how to contact people in priority order to get them vaccinated.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
It's temptingly straightforward, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the dispersion number, k, makes it more complicated - but also very possibly better for us.
R being 3 or 4 is simply the mean of a heck of a spread with almost everyone below the R value (and usually significantly below) and a sparse handful way above it, bringing the average up.
So reducing the infectivity means that everything shifts left on that graph (simplistically). More and more people fall in the 0 column, and the 10+ bunch come down - and if the infectivity isn't linear, possibly a long way down.
Add to that the fact that for it to spread, superspreaders must "link up" with superspreaders in a sort of series of nodes of infection. The more that infectivity is reduced, the harder it is to "find" another superspreader. It peters out a lot quicker a lot more often, and when it does reach another superspreader, they, too, are inhibited with the number they'll reach.
It's sort of like giving us at least a double hit against the virus. It may be bollocks, but I do suspect that we'll find that R drops considerably faster than the simple calculation of transmission reduction.
(Everyone's free to quote this at me a couple of months down the line if it does, indeed, turn out to be a load of old twaddle)
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
Maybe. For most normal politicians all four wheels would have come off following prorogation and the failure to die in a ditch. To torture the metaphor, Johnson has proved capable of convincing enough of the voters that he drives the Emperor's New Car, which is happily whizzing around, floating in mid-air with no need of wheels.
You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
To quote a shouted conversation between two middle aged men outside my house at 11.30 last night: "I hate Boris. Absolutely hate him. But as long as Labour keep behaving like spoiled kids I'm going to keep voting for him. He's not a racist. He's not a fascist, and when they say he is they look ridiculous." From what I could glean, his particular beef was the Bristol protestors, but I inferred that it extended to all shrill left wing voices. Now, you might reasonably say this seems a tad unfair on SKS etc. But in the mind if this fella at least a vote for Labour is a vote endorsing students attacking police stations, tearing down of statues, white guilt, EU vaccine madness and all the other fringe views which travel alongside Labour.
A tad unfair perhaps. SKS has tried to rid the Labour Party of some if its more Corbyny elements. But many people don't pay that much attention and easily conflate the two. My thesis is that the Tories do best when the left is at its maddest.
Yes. It may not be entirely fair but it's how it seems. Tories may be nuts but they don't tolerate 'Hitler made the trains run on time' types. Whereas...
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
Why can't they use the chip that's already in passports to hold information on vaccines?
Not everyone has a passport. Not everyone who lives here is a UK national. People dont want to take passports on a night out, or a spontaneous trip to a pub lunch.
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
Maybe. For most normal politicians all four wheels would have come off following prorogation and the failure to die in a ditch. To torture the metaphor, Johnson has proved capable of convincing enough of the voters that he drives the Emperor's New Car, which is happily whizzing around, floating in mid-air with no need of wheels.
You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
To quote a shouted conversation between two middle aged men outside my house at 11.30 last night: "I hate Boris. Absolutely hate him. But as long as Labour keep behaving like spoiled kids I'm going to keep voting for him. He's not a racist. He's not a fascist, and when they say he is they look ridiculous." From what I could glean, his particular beef was the Bristol protestors, but I inferred that it extended to all shrill left wing voices. Now, you might reasonably say this seems a tad unfair on SKS etc. But in the mind if this fella at least a vote for Labour is a vote endorsing students attacking police stations, tearing down of statues, white guilt, EU vaccine madness and all the other fringe views which travel alongside Labour.
A tad unfair perhaps. SKS has tried to rid the Labour Party of some if its more Corbyny elements. But many people don't pay that much attention and easily conflate the two. My thesis is that the Tories do best when the left is at its maddest.
Maybe there are enough votes to be won without worrying about two Daily Mail readers gobbing outside your house? There are others who will be overheard saying 'Say what you like about Priti Patel but why should we pay money to keep these people in prison......'.
One of the things I liked about Corbyn was he did what HE believed to be right not what Paul Dacre did. His only problem was that he wasn't competent.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
Why can't they use the chip that's already in passports to hold information on vaccines?
Not everyone has a passport. Not everyone who lives here is a UK national. People dont want to take passports on a night out, or a spontaneous trip to a pub lunch.
I also wondered about the possible security issue of having the Tom, Dick and Harry of your local and not so local boozer able to scan your passport.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Between 1950 and 2000 so many people used to say that Germany was ultra-efficient that it must have been true. I don't know what's gone wrong since then in that regard.
This is a data privacy issue - they don't know how to contact people in priority order to get them vaccinated.
Weren't they reduced to looking through lists to identify people with 'old' sounding names - the equivalent of looking for Geoffreys and Margarets?
It'll only take about 65 days to give everyone a first jab at this rate. I know the average is slightly lower than 580k. But 65 days to pubs being open without vaccine passports is something to look forward to.
If only this could continue so brilliantly. But we know it won't. Prepare for a sluggish April
I still struggle to understand why anyone gives a flying f**k about what Owen Jones is wittering on about.
I used to get miffed by the constant media exposure of the one-man Marxist boy-band, but now I'm convinced that he's a net electoral asset to the non-insane side of the political spectrum. Keep on spreading the good word, Owen!
Nonsense. Whittome was rightly criticised for failing to condemn violence among the protesters, and no-one has denied that the protests were in fact violent - just the extent.
But there was nevertheless a one eyed stampede to judgement - as we've seen before sometimes.
I can't comment on whether the judgments were made too quickly, but the initial impressions all seem to me to have been pretty much spot on. A lack of serious injuries having been inflicted is obviously welcomed, but doesn't change my opinion.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
Why can't they use the chip that's already in passports to hold information on vaccines?
Not everyone has a passport. Not everyone who lives here is a UK national. People dont want to take passports on a night out, or a spontaneous trip to a pub lunch.
I also wondered about the possible security issue of having the Tom, Dick and Harry of your local and not so local boozer able to scan your passport.
As its a betting site, a good time to point out that the govt have already forced us into providing such ID to often unscrupulous, undertrained and underpaid customer services staff at various bookies.
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
Maybe. For most normal politicians all four wheels would have come off following prorogation and the failure to die in a ditch. To torture the metaphor, Johnson has proved capable of convincing enough of the voters that he drives the Emperor's New Car, which is happily whizzing around, floating in mid-air with no need of wheels.
You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
To quote a shouted conversation between two middle aged men outside my house at 11.30 last night: "I hate Boris. Absolutely hate him. But as long as Labour keep behaving like spoiled kids I'm going to keep voting for him. He's not a racist. He's not a fascist, and when they say he is they look ridiculous." From what I could glean, his particular beef was the Bristol protestors, but I inferred that it extended to all shrill left wing voices. Now, you might reasonably say this seems a tad unfair on SKS etc. But in the mind if this fella at least a vote for Labour is a vote endorsing students attacking police stations, tearing down of statues, white guilt, EU vaccine madness and all the other fringe views which travel alongside Labour.
A tad unfair perhaps. SKS has tried to rid the Labour Party of some if its more Corbyny elements. But many people don't pay that much attention and easily conflate the two. My thesis is that the Tories do best when the left is at its maddest.
Maybe there are enough votes to be won without worrying about two Daily Mail readers gobbing outside your house? There are others who will be overheard saying 'Say what you like about Priti Patel but why should we pay money to keep these people in prison......'.
One of the things I liked about Corbyn was he did what HE believed to be right not what Paul Dacre did. His only problem was that he wasn't competent.
You misunderstand me Roger. My point, illustrated by an anecdote only for a little colour, was in response to LostPassword and kinbalu speculating on the support Boris has. My suggestion is that his buoyancy in the polls is not driven by wild levels of enthusiasm for Boris, but by opposition to 'the left' as a whole - which is rather unfair on SKS, who knows the toxicity of the wilder elements of the left and has striven to distance himself and his party from them; but, you know, people don't pay that much attention between elections to who exactly supports what.
I think you are right. If push comes to shove, I will vote for Boris even though he is a twat. Anything to keep the left out. If needs must...
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
It'll only take about 65 days to give everyone a first jab at this rate. I know the average is slightly lower than 580k. But 65 days to pubs being open without vaccine passports is something to look forward to.
Here's a chart of full 84 days from 1st to 2nd jab, 320k second doses/ 260307 first doses (Same throughput as today) till the end of May.
G10/11/12 cohorts will be done more slowly because of substantial second dose pressure on vaccines. We hopefully have more raw vaccine numbers coming on stream. But we do need more raw numbers.
Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.
This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.
Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.
When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.
Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.
Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.
The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
Unloading the ship might have fun effects in terms of changing the stress on the hull. Ships don't evenly match buoyancy and load along their lengths to start with. This ship is now not floating at the ends.... You could very easily break her back...
Then you really have fun...
That really is huge. I've been on the USS Nimitz (one of the American nuclear-powered supercarriers) and that is 330m long - big enough for rows and rows of huge jet warplanes to be ranked along the deck. Add 20% to it and stack it with containers ...
Containerships are things of beauty and wonder. The amount they have increased in size/carrying capacity these past years is extraordinary. Not yet but perhaps at some point would like to do a cruise on one. Not via Suez, that said for the moment.
Obscene monuments to our craven desire for more and more consumer goods from China.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
God, Im off to somewhere like Brazil if the world takes this direction. Lockdown was right, but it was time limited and specific to protecting the NHS from being overwhelmed. We have to get back to normal this spring and summer not possibly in 2024, maybe.....
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
God, Im off to somewhere like Brazil if the world takes this direction. Lockdown was right, but it was time limited and specific to protecting the NHS from being overwhelmed. We have to get back to normal this spring and summer not possibly in 2024, maybe.....
You misread me. Perhaps I wasn't clear. People will demand Vax Passports BECAUSE they are a route back to normality. A means of travelling, flying, theatre-going, without the constant anxiety of: might I catch this bastard?
Look at South Korea. Life IS normal there, BECAUSE they mastered the virus, because they used technology and smartphones so cleverly. We will copy.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
God, Im off to somewhere like Brazil if the world takes this direction. Lockdown was right, but it was time limited and specific to protecting the NHS from being overwhelmed. We have to get back to normal this spring and summer not possibly in 2024, maybe.....
You misread me. Perhaps I wasn't clear. People will demand Vax Passports BECAUSE they are a route back to normality. A means of travelling, flying, theatre-going, without the constant anxiety of: might I catch this bastard?
Look at South Korea. Life IS normal there, BECAUSE they mastered the virus, because they used technology and smartphones so cleverly. We will copy.
For international travel fine, everything else its inappropriate.
Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.
This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.
Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.
When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.
Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.
Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.
The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
Unloading the ship might have fun effects in terms of changing the stress on the hull. Ships don't evenly match buoyancy and load along their lengths to start with. This ship is now not floating at the ends.... You could very easily break her back...
Then you really have fun...
That really is huge. I've been on the USS Nimitz (one of the American nuclear-powered supercarriers) and that is 330m long - big enough for rows and rows of huge jet warplanes to be ranked along the deck. Add 20% to it and stack it with containers ...
Containerships are things of beauty and wonder. The amount they have increased in size/carrying capacity these past years is extraordinary. Not yet but perhaps at some point would like to do a cruise on one. Not via Suez, that said for the moment.
Obscene monuments to our craven desire for more and more consumer goods from China.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Both can be true. Both urges can exist in the same person. eg me
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
God, Im off to somewhere like Brazil if the world takes this direction. Lockdown was right, but it was time limited and specific to protecting the NHS from being overwhelmed. We have to get back to normal this spring and summer not possibly in 2024, maybe.....
You misread me. Perhaps I wasn't clear. People will demand Vax Passports BECAUSE they are a route back to normality. A means of travelling, flying, theatre-going, without the constant anxiety of: might I catch this bastard?
Look at South Korea. Life IS normal there, BECAUSE they mastered the virus, because they used technology and smartphones so cleverly. We will copy.
You do know most people don't share your level of panicked hysteria?
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Isn't it depressing that until only about 10 years ago most people were happy to go on foreign holidays without anything except a passport, a guide book, and a suitcase full of clothes? Better times, in every way.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
I think either of you could well end up being correct. I merely add the observation that the Spanish Flu, immeasurably worse in both proportionate and actual deaths (fingers crossed) worldwide, was almost completely obliterated from popular imagination. How much literature is there on the (immediately preceding) First World War and then the (immediately following) "roaring" Twenties compared to the misery of an influenza pandemic that wiped out whole families in day?
On that note, comparisons with the flu for this virus are not appropriate in either direction. Most common influenzas today are less lethal than Covid, that which sprang out of a pig into the human population in 1918 was most certainly far more lethal than our current adversary. If Covid-19 had emerged in a decade not too long ago when viral sequencing was not available, it is absolutely certain it would been identified as an influenza.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
Why can't they use the chip that's already in passports to hold information on vaccines?
Not everyone has a passport. Not everyone who lives here is a UK national. People dont want to take passports on a night out, or a spontaneous trip to a pub lunch.
Can’t we just scan the Microsoft chip in the vaccine? Or have I misunderstood?
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
God, Im off to somewhere like Brazil if the world takes this direction. Lockdown was right, but it was time limited and specific to protecting the NHS from being overwhelmed. We have to get back to normal this spring and summer not possibly in 2024, maybe.....
You misread me. Perhaps I wasn't clear. People will demand Vax Passports BECAUSE they are a route back to normality. A means of travelling, flying, theatre-going, without the constant anxiety of: might I catch this bastard?
Look at South Korea. Life IS normal there, BECAUSE they mastered the virus, because they used technology and smartphones so cleverly. We will copy.
You do know most people don't share your level of panicked hysteria?
Where is the hysteria? What a peculiar statement. I am saying we will copy South Korea, a country which has been the opposite of hysterical or panicked.
I AM saying we will be traumatised, and we will. Economically, also. The shuttered shops in the high street, the piles and piles of debt: we won't be able to ignore them
It'll only take about 65 days to give everyone a first jab at this rate. I know the average is slightly lower than 580k. But 65 days to pubs being open without vaccine passports is something to look forward to.
Here's a chart of full 84 days from 1st to 2nd jab, 320k second doses/ 260307 first doses (Same throughput as today) till the end of May.
G10/11/12 cohorts will be done more slowly because of substantial second dose pressure on vaccines. We hopefully have more raw vaccine numbers coming on stream. But we do need more raw numbers.
The under 50s will get the newer vaccines which is completely new supply. There will need to be some number of first doses through April as we get Moderna and Novavax. I've said from the beginning that the vaccine programme would result in 50+ people getting Pfizer and AZ, the under 50s would get the newer vaccines where there isn't any second dose pressure on supply. It all depends on how quickly Moderna and Novavax ramp up supply but from what I can see both seem to be doing a reasonably good job.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
God, Im off to somewhere like Brazil if the world takes this direction. Lockdown was right, but it was time limited and specific to protecting the NHS from being overwhelmed. We have to get back to normal this spring and summer not possibly in 2024, maybe.....
You misread me. Perhaps I wasn't clear. People will demand Vax Passports BECAUSE they are a route back to normality. A means of travelling, flying, theatre-going, without the constant anxiety of: might I catch this bastard?
Look at South Korea. Life IS normal there, BECAUSE they mastered the virus, because they used technology and smartphones so cleverly. We will copy.
For international travel fine, everything else its inappropriate.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
God, Im off to somewhere like Brazil if the world takes this direction. Lockdown was right, but it was time limited and specific to protecting the NHS from being overwhelmed. We have to get back to normal this spring and summer not possibly in 2024, maybe.....
You misread me. Perhaps I wasn't clear. People will demand Vax Passports BECAUSE they are a route back to normality. A means of travelling, flying, theatre-going, without the constant anxiety of: might I catch this bastard?
Look at South Korea. Life IS normal there, BECAUSE they mastered the virus, because they used technology and smartphones so cleverly. We will copy.
You do know most people don't share your level of panicked hysteria?
Where is the hysteria? What a peculiar statement. I am saying we will copy South Korea, a country which has been the opposite of hysterical or panicked.
I AM saying we will be traumatised, and we will. Economically, also. The shuttered shops in the high street, the piles and piles of debt: we won't be able to ignore them
The hysteria is believing people will demand vax passports be introduced for going to the pub or theatre. Most won't just worrywarts like you and Mr Palmer
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
God, Im off to somewhere like Brazil if the world takes this direction. Lockdown was right, but it was time limited and specific to protecting the NHS from being overwhelmed. We have to get back to normal this spring and summer not possibly in 2024, maybe.....
You misread me. Perhaps I wasn't clear. People will demand Vax Passports BECAUSE they are a route back to normality. A means of travelling, flying, theatre-going, without the constant anxiety of: might I catch this bastard?
Look at South Korea. Life IS normal there, BECAUSE they mastered the virus, because they used technology and smartphones so cleverly. We will copy.
You do know most people don't share your level of panicked hysteria?
Where is the hysteria? What a peculiar statement. I am saying we will copy South Korea, a country which has been the opposite of hysterical or panicked.
I AM saying we will be traumatised, and we will. Economically, also. The shuttered shops in the high street, the piles and piles of debt: we won't be able to ignore them
The hysteria is believing people will demand vax passports be introduced for going to the pub or theatre. Most won't just worrywarts like you and Mr Palmer
Theatres will demand them because it means theatres can open to nervous middle aged theatre-goers. Pubs I am less sure, their customers are much younger and less risk-averse
What they don't understand is that of the EU has insisted on the same kind of contract that we have with AZ for their Pfizer one, it would have resulted in Pfizer building new capacity outside of of the EU, either here or in Switzerland, to service non-EU markets just as AZ have done because they need to be able to service non US/UK/IN clients, all of which have supply reservations for domestically manufactured doses.
Their approach has led to fewer vaccine doses being supplied globally because they chose to underinvest. The only way to get the kinds of contracts we have with AZ is to pay way over the odds and help them invest in manufacturing. Buying up 100% of Pfizer's supply would have been extremely costly and the EU was never ready to pay that cost.
He's still fine, though. Vaccination certificates would be proving he's had a vaccine, not who he is. Like being asked to produce a driving license just proves you have the right to drive a vehicle.
Gosh, it is difficult to imagine anyone looking more of a twat than Boris Johnson, but here is proof positive, Boris Johnson as his younger self looks even more of a twat than the present day, even fatter version.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
Why can't they use the chip that's already in passports to hold information on vaccines?
Not everyone has a passport. Not everyone who lives here is a UK national. People dont want to take passports on a night out, or a spontaneous trip to a pub lunch.
Can’t we just scan the Microsoft chip in the vaccine? Or have I misunderstood?
Good point, Id keep an eye out on the stock market for any B Gates trades in listed pub cos over the next few weeks. Will be worth following in bigly.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
God, Im off to somewhere like Brazil if the world takes this direction. Lockdown was right, but it was time limited and specific to protecting the NHS from being overwhelmed. We have to get back to normal this spring and summer not possibly in 2024, maybe.....
You misread me. Perhaps I wasn't clear. People will demand Vax Passports BECAUSE they are a route back to normality. A means of travelling, flying, theatre-going, without the constant anxiety of: might I catch this bastard?
Look at South Korea. Life IS normal there, BECAUSE they mastered the virus, because they used technology and smartphones so cleverly. We will copy.
You do know most people don't share your level of panicked hysteria?
Where is the hysteria? What a peculiar statement. I am saying we will copy South Korea, a country which has been the opposite of hysterical or panicked.
I AM saying we will be traumatised, and we will. Economically, also. The shuttered shops in the high street, the piles and piles of debt: we won't be able to ignore them
The hysteria is believing people will demand vax passports be introduced for going to the pub or theatre. Most won't just worrywarts like you and Mr Palmer
Theatres will demand them because it means theatres can open to nervous middle aged theatre-goers. Pubs I am less sure, their customers are much younger and less risk-averse
Five months ago we were not even sure we were going to get any vaccines, B117 was a minor road that used to run near Victoria Park, and all we could talk about on here was the quality of Trafalgar polling. Lets see where we are in five months time.
It'll only take about 65 days to give everyone a first jab at this rate. I know the average is slightly lower than 580k. But 65 days to pubs being open without vaccine passports is something to look forward to.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
God, Im off to somewhere like Brazil if the world takes this direction. Lockdown was right, but it was time limited and specific to protecting the NHS from being overwhelmed. We have to get back to normal this spring and summer not possibly in 2024, maybe.....
You misread me. Perhaps I wasn't clear. People will demand Vax Passports BECAUSE they are a route back to normality. A means of travelling, flying, theatre-going, without the constant anxiety of: might I catch this bastard?
Look at South Korea. Life IS normal there, BECAUSE they mastered the virus, because they used technology and smartphones so cleverly. We will copy.
You do know most people don't share your level of panicked hysteria?
Where is the hysteria? What a peculiar statement. I am saying we will copy South Korea, a country which has been the opposite of hysterical or panicked.
I AM saying we will be traumatised, and we will. Economically, also. The shuttered shops in the high street, the piles and piles of debt: we won't be able to ignore them
The hysteria is believing people will demand vax passports be introduced for going to the pub or theatre. Most won't just worrywarts like you and Mr Palmer
Theatres will demand them because it means theatres can open to nervous middle aged theatre-goers. Pubs I am less sure, their customers are much younger and less risk-averse
Depends how much they lose by implementing them for theatres, I would be eligible for a vaccine passport no way in hell though I am going to get one and will not give custom to anywhere that demands them and that boycott won't be just for the span of time they ask for them either.
Pretty sure I am not alone in that sort of view. Neither will I be going out with a smartphone, not going to change my habits to make some nervous middle aged wimp feel happier, and thats even if you assume they are a majority which I very much doubt, of all the people I know only one would fall into that category and while anecdote it suggests they aren't as numerous as you think.
The European Commission and the UK government should not be discussing the distribution of coronavirus vaccines in an atmosphere of war, former president of the European Commission Jean Claude Juncker says.
While he understands the recent move of the president of the Commission to threaten export bans, it could create a major reputational damage to the European Union - which used to be the world free-trade champion - and is not the right way to act, he tells BBC Hardtalk.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
I think the vax passport is an August 2021 - 2023 thing broadly for internal use in the UK
Yes, agreed. The world has been gravely traumatised by this horror - this is another reason people will DEMAND VaxAppPassports: as a bulwark against fear and anxiety. So they will happen.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Disagree. While a huge tragedy for those affected, the vast majority of people have not had an association with Covid. I think that for those, Covid will be something that "happens to other people" (and let's think about the demographic that has been relatively unaffected).
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
I think either of you could well end up being correct. I merely add the observation that the Spanish Flu, immeasurably worse in both proportionate and actual deaths (fingers crossed) worldwide, was almost completely obliterated from popular imagination. How much literature is there on the (immediately preceding) First World War and then the (immediately following) "roaring" Twenties compared to the misery of an influenza pandemic that wiped out whole families in day?
On that note, comparisons with the flu for this virus are not appropriate in either direction. Most common influenzas today are less lethal than Covid, that which sprang out of a pig into the human population in 1918 was most certainly far more lethal than our current adversary. If Covid-19 had emerged in a decade not too long ago when viral sequencing was not available, it is absolutely certain it would been identified as an influenza.
Yes I was pondering that the other day - the Roaring Twenties.
In a lot of countries, like the USA and France, a lot of left-of-centre people traditionally wave their national flags in order to say "We're a better country than every other country". I wonder what he thinks about them.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
The way it needs to be done is for a physical certificate of vaccination in your passport, as has always been the case until now.
As with contact tracing, anything based on mobile phone apps has a million potential problems, including older and poorer people with the wrong phones, and the potential for bars and other businesses to start using it.
That's really cheeky. She's trying to claim credit for other countries being willing to pay extra for priority access to Pfizer doses, because the EU were too concerned with saving a few Euro cents.
He's still fine, though. Vaccination certificates would be proving he's had a vaccine, not who he is. Like being asked to produce a driving license just proves you have the right to drive a vehicle.
Gosh, it is difficult to imagine anyone looking more of a twat than Boris Johnson, but here is proof positive, Boris Johnson as his younger self looks even more of a twat than the present day, even fatter version.
Please post recent and 15-20 year old photos of yourself so we can all tell you how much of a twat you look in them.
"Boris Johnson has said "there is going to be a role" for COVID vaccine certification but suggested it might only be implemented once every adult in the UK has been offered a vaccine by the end of July."
I dislike the idea of vax passports but I don't see how we avoid them, at least temporarily
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
The way it needs to be done is for a physical certificate of vaccination in your passport, as has always been the case until now.
As with contact tracing, anything based on mobile phone apps has a million potential problems, including older and poorer people with the wrong phones, and the potential for bars and other businesses to start using it.
Around 25% don't have smartphones. That's a lot of people to discriminate against. Unless you want to make smartphones compulsory.
Most people never see £50 notes. Perhaps an entrepreneur will knock out framed fifties to the gay tech nerd war historian crossover demographic. I'd buy one.
Inadvisable to carry them. They are regularly forged.
Are the new fifties plastic like the other notes, and will ATMs be stocking them?
One thing you notice when living and visiting different places, is that the UK £20 note is a tiny amount of money given its the biggest thing an ATM will give you.
In UAE, as an example, the smallest note you’ll get from an ATM is 100dhm (£20). The largest is 1,000dhm!
I read somewhere that there is a statistical problem with care home staff. Many have two jobs and the ONS doesn't keep records of them in the same way as the other categories.
In a lot of countries, like the USA and France, a lot of left-of-centre people traditionally wave their national flags in order to say "We're a better country than every other country". I wonder what he thinks about them.
Also, if 'Britain is cool' then that is only a meaningful statement if that is in comparison to other countries - i.e. 'Britain is cooler than other countries'. Or 'better'...
Most people never see £50 notes. Perhaps an entrepreneur will knock out framed fifties to the gay tech nerd war historian crossover demographic. I'd buy one.
Inadvisable to carry them. They are regularly forged.
Are the new fifties plastic like the other notes, and will ATMs be stocking them?
One thing you notice when living and visiting different places, is that the UK £20 note is a tiny amount of money given its the biggest thing an ATM will give you.
In UAE, as an example, the smallest note you’ll get from an ATM is 100dhm (£20). The largest is 1,000dhm!
A big mistake by the EU in 1999 was to mint a 500 Euro note. Very popular with criminals apparently.
"The Life and Death of the Bin Laden The short-lived 500 euro bill became the currency of choice for international criminals. But eliminating it may not solve the problem."
Most people never see £50 notes. Perhaps an entrepreneur will knock out framed fifties to the gay tech nerd war historian crossover demographic. I'd buy one.
Inadvisable to carry them. They are regularly forged.
Are the new fifties plastic like the other notes, and will ATMs be stocking them?
One thing you notice when living and visiting different places, is that the UK £20 note is a tiny amount of money given its the biggest thing an ATM will give you.
In UAE, as an example, the smallest note you’ll get from an ATM is 100dhm (£20). The largest is 1,000dhm!
Wasn't it the case that almost 100% of the old £50 notes had traces of cocaine in, when tested?
I wonder whether the new plastic notes behave in similar ways. And whether anyone thought of that during the preparation for rollout.
Question on Israeli 'R'. That doesn't really tell us if vaccines prevent transmission in itself, surely?
Example:
You've been vaccinated and you're out on the lash in Tel Aviv. You catch COVID. You experience no symptoms because you've been vaccinated so you don't take a test.
The question is, are you able to transmit COVID to other people despite experiencing no symptoms?
The answer to this question isn't mega important in the grand scheme of things because if everyone is vaccinated, it doesn't matter if they 'catch' COVID.
Most people never see £50 notes. Perhaps an entrepreneur will knock out framed fifties to the gay tech nerd war historian crossover demographic. I'd buy one.
Inadvisable to carry them. They are regularly forged.
Are the new fifties plastic like the other notes, and will ATMs be stocking them?
One thing you notice when living and visiting different places, is that the UK £20 note is a tiny amount of money given its the biggest thing an ATM will give you.
In UAE, as an example, the smallest note you’ll get from an ATM is 100dhm (£20). The largest is 1,000dhm!
Isn't that because you're all buying gold-plated lambos with cash?
What they don't understand is that of the EU has insisted on the same kind of contract that we have with AZ for their Pfizer one, it would have resulted in Pfizer building new capacity outside of of the EU, either here or in Switzerland, to service non-EU markets just as AZ have done because they need to be able to service non US/UK/IN clients, all of which have supply reservations for domestically manufactured doses.
Their approach has led to fewer vaccine doses being supplied globally because they chose to underinvest. The only way to get the kinds of contracts we have with AZ is to pay way over the odds and help them invest in manufacturing. Buying up 100% of Pfizer's supply would have been extremely costly and the EU was never ready to pay that cost.
They really did think they were simply buying widgets, and that being the EU - the single largest Western purchasing group - the manufacturers of said widgets would be bending over backwards to give them the best price.
Comments
https://youtu.be/tPUb9m1kS64
A few of those had swimming pools on them.
And they had a far better ROI in terms of ships sunk than the Kriegsmarine.
https://news.sky.com/story/there-will-be-a-role-for-vaccine-certificates-says-pm-but-it-might-not-be-until-august-12256251
One of the things I liked about Corbyn was he did what HE believed to be right not what Paul Dacre did. His only problem was that he wasn't competent.
https://www.marine-salvage.com/media-information/articles/archive/confronting-the-challenge-of-major-containership-casualties/
They will be obligatory for foreign holidays, and flights, which means most people will want one, so they can travel and vacation. Once that is accepted, and almost everyone has the vax pass app on their phones, other businesses will use the facility. To give reassurance to customers: domestic hotels, theatres, gyms, cinemas, any place where infection is likely. We can't stop private businesses doing this. The upside is that this will push the last vax refuseniks into accepting the jab
For pubs it should be optional, of course. Some might prefer not to demand the passport, so they can attract younger customers? Hard to say
The best we can hope for is that these passports are temporary. As the plague abates, and the bug becomes just another bug, fear will likewise recede, and they might fall out of use
Unless you want the certificate to be transferable I'm sure it will need both pictures and words to identify the recipient.
(actually he probably is but not in a good way - if Labour was ever to win, the radical left would take it as carte blanche to unleash their orthodoxies as is happening in the States).
We want million...
My point, illustrated by an anecdote only for a little colour, was in response to LostPassword and kinbalu speculating on the support Boris has. My suggestion is that his buoyancy in the polls is not driven by wild levels of enthusiasm for Boris, but by opposition to 'the left' as a whole - which is rather unfair on SKS, who knows the toxicity of the wilder elements of the left and has striven to distance himself and his party from them; but, you know, people don't pay that much attention between elections to who exactly supports what.
The spread of covid isn't even - most people infect no-one else; a few people infect more than 10:
(more on this here: https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1265925029088329736)
R being 3 or 4 is simply the mean of a heck of a spread with almost everyone below the R value (and usually significantly below) and a sparse handful way above it, bringing the average up.
So reducing the infectivity means that everything shifts left on that graph (simplistically). More and more people fall in the 0 column, and the 10+ bunch come down - and if the infectivity isn't linear, possibly a long way down.
Add to that the fact that for it to spread, superspreaders must "link up" with superspreaders in a sort of series of nodes of infection. The more that infectivity is reduced, the harder it is to "find" another superspreader. It peters out a lot quicker a lot more often, and when it does reach another superspreader, they, too, are inhibited with the number they'll reach.
It's sort of like giving us at least a double hit against the virus. It may be bollocks, but I do suspect that we'll find that R drops considerably faster than the simple calculation of transmission reduction.
(Everyone's free to quote this at me a couple of months down the line if it does, indeed, turn out to be a load of old twaddle)
https://unherd.com/2021/03/were-living-in-a-pornstars-world/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3&mc_cid=85dfc40ed2&mc_eid=836634e34b
Not everyone who lives here is a UK national.
People dont want to take passports on a night out, or a spontaneous trip to a pub lunch.
The EHRC, for one, begs to differ.
This trauma will take years to heal, if ever. People will want to see at least two winters free of another wave before they feel particularly safe. 2022, 2023. By 2024 we may not need the passports, any more
Another consequence of the bug is that every country will copy South Korea. They did it best. That means monitored smartphones and consensual surveillance, real time track and trace, and proper, enforced quarantine. It's coming.
Hence I think people will go party. Certainly amongst those I speak to the desire to go to the pub, meet up, and try to expunge this last year's privations is very strong.
Here's a chart of full 84 days from 1st to 2nd jab, 320k second doses/ 260307 first doses (Same throughput as today) till the end of May.
G10/11/12 cohorts will be done more slowly because of substantial second dose pressure on vaccines.
We hopefully have more raw vaccine numbers coming on stream. But we do need more raw numbers.
Was there a year when we suddenly stopped wearing hats? Was it a worldwide decision? Did the League of Nations issue a decree against hats? Odd
Look at South Korea. Life IS normal there, BECAUSE they mastered the virus, because they used technology and smartphones so cleverly. We will copy.
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1375090365254934531?s=20
I am fully determined to enjoy the fuck out of this coming summer. Go to pubs, restaurants, theatres, have a life, have fun, have a fling or two. I have saved money, and been rather lonely.
At the same time if offered a vaxpassapp I will eagerly accept. Because they will give me reassurance, especially on flights, and because they are a route BACK to that normal life
The idea that we will all move on and forget this is nice, but wrong. We will try and put it to the back of the mind, but governments will not allow us to forget, because it could and eventually will happen again, and we will need booster jabs for Covid mutants, and so on
The shadow of this terror will follow us for many years
On that note, comparisons with the flu for this virus are not appropriate in either direction. Most common influenzas today are less lethal than Covid, that which sprang out of a pig into the human population in 1918 was most certainly far more lethal than our current adversary. If Covid-19 had emerged in a decade not too long ago when viral sequencing was not available, it is absolutely certain it would been identified as an influenza.
"So with sadness we have to restrict exports"
I AM saying we will be traumatised, and we will. Economically, also. The shuttered shops in the high street, the piles and piles of debt: we won't be able to ignore them
WWII
Kennedy
in some related order
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_Hat_Riot
https://www.statista.com/chart/24244/donations-to-covax-by-country/
Their approach has led to fewer vaccine doses being supplied globally because they chose to underinvest. The only way to get the kinds of contracts we have with AZ is to pay way over the odds and help them invest in manufacturing. Buying up 100% of Pfizer's supply would have been extremely costly and the EU was never ready to pay that cost.
8 days!
https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/1374885436611559433?s=21
See, for example: https://www.npr.org/sections/krulwich/2012/05/04/152011840/who-killed-mens-hats-think-of-a-three-letter-word-beginning-with-i
[Straw hats] probably seemed dated, quaint and after the 1929 Wall Street crash, a symbol of the irresponsible 1920s.
Pretty sure I am not alone in that sort of view. Neither will I be going out with a smartphone, not going to change my habits to make some nervous middle aged wimp feel happier, and thats even if you assume they are a majority which I very much doubt, of all the people I know only one would fall into that category and while anecdote it suggests they aren't as numerous as you think.
https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1375093829599178759?s=20
While he understands the recent move of the president of the Commission to threaten export bans, it could create a major reputational damage to the European Union - which used to be the world free-trade champion - and is not the right way to act, he tells BBC Hardtalk.
As with contact tracing, anything based on mobile phone apps has a million potential problems, including older and poorer people with the wrong phones, and the potential for bars and other businesses to start using it.
One thing you notice when living and visiting different places, is that the UK £20 note is a tiny amount of money given its the biggest thing an ATM will give you.
In UAE, as an example, the smallest note you’ll get from an ATM is 100dhm (£20). The largest is 1,000dhm!
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/08/euros-500-bin-ladens.html
"The Life and Death of the Bin Laden
The short-lived 500 euro bill became the currency of choice for international criminals. But eliminating it may not solve the problem."
I wonder whether the new plastic notes behave in similar ways. And whether anyone thought of that during the preparation for rollout.
Example:
You've been vaccinated and you're out on the lash in Tel Aviv. You catch COVID. You experience no symptoms because you've been vaccinated so you don't take a test.
The question is, are you able to transmit COVID to other people despite experiencing no symptoms?
The answer to this question isn't mega important in the grand scheme of things because if everyone is vaccinated, it doesn't matter if they 'catch' COVID.