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How the UK by some margin leads the way in Europe on vaccination – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited March 25 in General
imageHow the UK by some margin leads the way in Europe on vaccination – politicalbetting.com

We all know what a huge political issue vaccinations has become in Europe over the past few months and the above table from Politico shows country-by-country how many have actually been jabbed.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 11,669
    First as no doubt the Tories will be in 2024.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 13,428
    edited March 25
    Edit: Seconds too late!

    Anyhow, I see that on the list of Santander closures is the branch here in Bingley. The last vestige of the Bradford and Bingley leaves the town.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 646
    edited March 25
    First... Well, I was at one stage.....
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 2,908
    Quite a long way from First, much like the E... eh lets not go there.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261

    Edit: Seconds too late!

    Anyhow, I see that on the list of Santander closures is the branch here in Bingley. The last vestige of the Bradford and Bingley leaves the town.

    Physical bank branches have the future of Blockbuster branches.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,595
    MaxPB said:

    Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.

    Careful we've all had this discussion.

    Those with confidence in the UK: "we'd also have gone outside the EU had we been members"
    Those with no confidence in the UK: "we'd have succumbed to the EU jackboot had we been members and fallen in with their scheme."
  • TimTTimT Posts: 3,291
    MaxPB said:

    Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.

    And they are both ahead of the US
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,577
    Still more than a third of all vaccines from the 28 countries, have gone to the UK.

    If we stay at 500k per day, there’s 140 days until everyone’s been done twice. First week in August, just in time to start on the schoolkids.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 39,928
    Reports Suez blockage may last another week
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.

    Careful we've all had this discussion.

    Those with confidence in the UK: "we'd also have gone outside the EU had we been members"
    Those with no confidence in the UK: "we'd have succumbed to the EU jackboot had we been members and fallen in with their scheme."
    If you're gonna do this counter-factual (which is so fiendish it is near-pointless) you have to put it in context of a Britain Remaining in the EU

    The EU has a large Covid solidarity fund, which benefits the countries with the biggest per capita death tolls. We would have been "entitled" to a decent share of that, and boy, we would have taken it, eagerly.

    Even if we had at the same time gone it alone on vaccines (dubious), once it became obvious we had more jabs and were racing ahead, the rest of the EU would have said Oi, you took our money, now share the vaccines.

    Morally incontestable. Of course we would yield. And rightly so.

    Ergo, even if we'd pursued a solo vax route (I am doubtful) we'd have been forced to share them, anyway
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 19,861
    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,669

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 39,928
    kinabalu said:

    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.

    As a Labour supporter how do you see Liverpool being placed under commissioners with the full backing of Starmer
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 16,914
    kinabalu said:

    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.

    Remember, the last time Labour gained power, they did so when things were going really rather well.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,595
    edited March 25
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.

    Careful we've all had this discussion.

    Those with confidence in the UK: "we'd also have gone outside the EU had we been members"
    Those with no confidence in the UK: "we'd have succumbed to the EU jackboot had we been members and fallen in with their scheme."
    If you're gonna do this counter-factual (which is so fiendish it is near-pointless) you have to put it in context of a Britain Remaining in the EU

    The EU has a large Covid solidarity fund, which benefits the countries with the biggest per capita death tolls. We would have been "entitled" to a decent share of that, and boy, we would have taken it, eagerly.

    Even if we had at the same time gone it alone on vaccines (dubious), once it became obvious we had more jabs and were racing ahead, the rest of the EU would have said Oi, you took our money, now share the vaccines.

    Morally incontestable. Of course we would yield. And rightly so.

    Ergo, even if we'd pursued a solo vax route (I am doubtful) we'd have been forced to share them, anyway
    I think the Giant Squid Invasion would have rendered much of that scenario moot, frankly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,695
    kinabalu said:

    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.

    If - planet sized if - that were to happen, there's as much chance of the LibDems getting the uplift as Labour. They are both policy-free zones led by a bundle of nothing very much.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,577

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    There’s apparently a high tide on Monday. If she doesn’t float then, it’s two weeks until a higher one.

    There’s a Dutch salvage crew on the way, but getting heavy equipment alongside will take time. The sheer size of the thing makes it very difficult to offload cargo, but it will have fuel and possibly some ballast which can be removed to lighten the load.

    They’re currently backing out with tugs the last two ships that were behind to the south, so they should soon be able to get at her from both sides. Not an easy job at all, good luck to them!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426
    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 39,928
    Sandpit said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    There’s apparently a high tide on Monday. If she doesn’t float then, it’s two weeks until a higher one.

    There’s a Dutch salvage crew on the way, but getting heavy equipment alongside will take time. The sheer size of the thing makes it very difficult to offload cargo, but it will have fuel and possibly some ballast which can be removed to lighten the load.

    They’re currently backing out with tugs the last two ships that were behind to the south, so they should soon be able to get at her from both sides. Not an easy job at all, good luck to them!
    And the queue behind must be enormous
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,560
    First! (Since it's my chart in the header!)

    When you read the process some countries have to go through to get vaccines rolled out - and compare it to what having a centralised health service can accomplish - I suspect even if we had been in the EU procurement process (and had been given the opportunity to buy "fair shares", not necessarily a given) we'd still have been leading the pack. My jab was very efficient - took less time than the queue on the phone to arrange it.

    What has been the experience of posters in the US, which is also doing well, but does not have centralised medicine?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,925
    edited March 25
    kinabalu said:

    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.

    I think your last sentence is right; not so sure about the first. One of the reasons UK's done so well on vaccinations is because we have the NHS and it's very easy to identify over 60's, and younger people with chronic conditions.

    And the public 'knows' who 'created' the NHS; Labour

    (It was on a Liberal base, but that's forgotten.)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,695

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    Over the course of how many months?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 39,928
    edited March 25

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    Over the course of how many months?
    Torrey Canyon comes to mind in 1967 and I remember holidaying in the area a few months later and the smell was dreadful
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 19,861
    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.

    Remember, the last time Labour gained power, they did so when things were going really rather well.
    Yes. But the occasions of "Labour gaining power" is a VERY small data-set. :smile:
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 13,012
    I see Drunker has slammed the idiotic EU attempt at vaccine wars
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,577
    edited March 25

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.

    The real concern is that she breaks her back during the recovery, given she’s grounded at bow and stern, but not in the middle.

    One other alternative would be to dam the canal either side of her, and pump in enough water to float her. Again, that will take weeks.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426
    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.

    Remember, the last time Labour gained power, they did so when things were going really rather well.
    Yes. But the occasions of "Labour gaining power" is a VERY small data-set. :smile:
    Thankfully.

    There might be a reason for that. Its good that at the moment the left wants to add no more data to that set.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,595
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I'm sure the Panama Canal pilots are being *extremely* careful right now.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,669
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,560
    US keeps cruise suspension in place until end-October:

    https://twitter.com/CruiseGuide/status/1375055138847653889?s=20
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,669
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 13,012

    US keeps cruise suspension in place until end-October:

    https://twitter.com/CruiseGuide/status/1375055138847653889?s=20

    Some US cruise commentators were convinced sailings were going to be restarted
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,560

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So if a variant has an R0 of 3 or above we'll still need NPIs?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    No that's not right.

    If the vaccine is 75% more effective, but then in the 25% chance you get the infection still you are more likely to be asymptomatic and less likely to infect people even though you are asymptomatically infected, then that will reduce R further.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 10,316
    Floater said:
    It's surprising Denmark is doing this.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,560
    Floater said:

    US keeps cruise suspension in place until end-October:

    https://twitter.com/CruiseGuide/status/1375055138847653889?s=20

    Some US cruise commentators were convinced sailings were going to be restarted
    Like RyanAir and holiday flights?
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 137
    edited March 25

    kinabalu said:

    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.

    I think your last sentence is right; not so sure about the first. One of the reasons UK's done so well on vaccinations is because we have the NHS and it's very easy to identify over 60's, and younger people with chronic conditions.

    And the public 'knows' who 'created' the NHS; Labour

    (It was on a Liberal base, but that's forgotten.)
    As a conservative sympathiser I would love nothing more than for Labour to go hard on the NHS (again). As a first hand witness to the Copeland byelection and the most fevered campaign i have ever seen. With a paid for local newspaper wrap around claiming the conservatives intended to literally murder children by the withdrawal of consultant led local maternity services from the west cumberland hospital, and the dramatic failure to cur through.
    Labour needs a message that is wider than that.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 3,137
    kinabalu said:

    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.

    Maybe. For most normal politicians all four wheels would have come off following prorogation and the failure to die in a ditch. To torture the metaphor, Johnson has proved capable of convincing enough of the voters that he drives the Emperor's New Car, which is happily whizzing around, floating in mid-air with no need of wheels.

    You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,940
    MaxPB said:

    Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.

    Is there any evidence the Chinese vaccine is "better" ?

    I read Sinopharm was a bit pants, like, only 50-60% effective.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727
    Floater said:
    The same vaccine that Italy's "elite military police" were lustfully seizing from "secret warehouses", on behalf of the EU (and Denmark) only yesterday.

    Piquant
  • FossFoss Posts: 277

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    This could be Project Plowshare's time to shine.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,940

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
  • eekeek Posts: 11,669

    MaxPB said:

    Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.

    Is there any evidence the Chinese vaccine is "better" ?

    I read Sinopharm was a bit pants, like, only 50-60% effective.
    I think Max's comment is they have bought the better Chinese vaccine rather than one of the really bad Chinese vaccines the chinese are trying to sell to Africa.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,577
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 19,861

    kinabalu said:

    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.

    If - planet sized if - that were to happen, there's as much chance of the LibDems getting the uplift as Labour. They are both policy-free zones led by a bundle of nothing very much.
    Can't see that. Somewhat sadly (in a sense) we are imo polarizing under our FPTP system in this era of a "values" war. Everyone bar Con v Lab is getting squeezed out. As for the latter, it's becoming clear to me that they are tacking heavily to the centre and are focused with great discipline on 2 things. Establish Starmer as a credible PM. Neutralize Brexit and "patriotism" and thus weaken the Tory ownership of the WWC Leave identity. It's not inspiring to me but I think it has a decent chance of working. I think the next election will be fought against the backdrop of a very bad economy, with the 2 main parties offering mainly soundbites and platitudes. Tories are fav for largest party but will have their work cut out to get another majority.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So if a variant has an R0 of 3 or above we'll still need NPIs?
    What is likely is that other measures will still be required, unless we intended COVID to spread to everyone for who the vaccine hasn't taken, or hasn't been vaccinated.

    So track and trace, isolating hotspots etc. may well continue.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.

    Careful we've all had this discussion.

    Those with confidence in the UK: "we'd also have gone outside the EU had we been members"
    Those with no confidence in the UK: "we'd have succumbed to the EU jackboot had we been members and fallen in with their scheme."
    If you're gonna do this counter-factual (which is so fiendish it is near-pointless) you have to put it in context of a Britain Remaining in the EU

    The EU has a large Covid solidarity fund, which benefits the countries with the biggest per capita death tolls. We would have been "entitled" to a decent share of that, and boy, we would have taken it, eagerly.

    Even if we had at the same time gone it alone on vaccines (dubious), once it became obvious we had more jabs and were racing ahead, the rest of the EU would have said Oi, you took our money, now share the vaccines.

    Morally incontestable. Of course we would yield. And rightly so.

    Ergo, even if we'd pursued a solo vax route (I am doubtful) we'd have been forced to share them, anyway
    It's funny that you think we'd have been entitled to the COVID recovery fund. The rules would have been changed so the UK somehow failed to qualify but paid in hundreds of billions as a net contributor.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    Leon said:

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
    It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727

    Leon said:

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
    It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
    Ah, fair enough, ta - I misread my own misreading

    In that case I find the chart quite encouraging
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 19,861

    kinabalu said:

    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.

    I think your last sentence is right; not so sure about the first. One of the reasons UK's done so well on vaccinations is because we have the NHS and it's very easy to identify over 60's, and younger people with chronic conditions.

    And the public 'knows' who 'created' the NHS; Labour

    (It was on a Liberal base, but that's forgotten.)
    Well we'll see. I'm very interested in Hartlepool. If Labour can win there, it will apply rocket boosters to my longer term expectations. I don't predict it but fingers crossed.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 6,424

    kinabalu said:

    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.

    If - planet sized if - that were to happen, there's as much chance of the LibDems getting the uplift as Labour. They are both policy-free zones led by a bundle of nothing very much.
    Unfortunately " a bundle of nothing very much" also very much applies to the front bench of the Tories at the moment, and they are the ones with their hands on the levers. From a selfish perspective, I don't much relish the idea of a Labour government, particularly one in hock to the Scottish Nasty Party, but I still think they have plenty of time to watch the inevitable whopping big car crash of Boris de pfeffel Johnson.
  • CursingStoneCursingStone Posts: 137
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.

    Careful we've all had this discussion.

    Those with confidence in the UK: "we'd also have gone outside the EU had we been members"
    Those with no confidence in the UK: "we'd have succumbed to the EU jackboot had we been members and fallen in with their scheme."
    If you're gonna do this counter-factual (which is so fiendish it is near-pointless) you have to put it in context of a Britain Remaining in the EU

    The EU has a large Covid solidarity fund, which benefits the countries with the biggest per capita death tolls. We would have been "entitled" to a decent share of that, and boy, we would have taken it, eagerly.

    Even if we had at the same time gone it alone on vaccines (dubious), once it became obvious we had more jabs and were racing ahead, the rest of the EU would have said Oi, you took our money, now share the vaccines.

    Morally incontestable. Of course we would yield. And rightly so.

    Ergo, even if we'd pursued a solo vax route (I am doubtful) we'd have been forced to share them, anyway
    It's funny that you think we'd have been entitled to the COVID recovery fund. The rules would have been changed so the UK somehow failed to qualify but paid in hundreds of billions as a net contributor.
    The solidarity fund was netted off future rebates... An utter waste of time.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 2,935

    kinabalu said:

    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.

    Maybe. For most normal politicians all four wheels would have come off following prorogation and the failure to die in a ditch. To torture the metaphor, Johnson has proved capable of convincing enough of the voters that he drives the Emperor's New Car, which is happily whizzing around, floating in mid-air with no need of wheels.

    You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
    Not quite. This isn't delusional Trumptown. There are exactly two powers that can lead a UK government in this era. Tory and Labour. One or other of those is going to be in charge and/or the likely next winner. There are always at least 4 wheels on the road, at least either Labour or Tory Instead of assuming that the UK population have undergone a USA style conversion to narcissist politics it is more likely that, of the two, a decent number of people think that Tory is better than Labour. That doesn't mean they think Tories are by some absolute standard good. Labour's job is not to defeat a miracle worker. It is to be a bit better than them.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 30,969
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.

    Careful we've all had this discussion.

    Those with confidence in the UK: "we'd also have gone outside the EU had we been members"
    Those with no confidence in the UK: "we'd have succumbed to the EU jackboot had we been members and fallen in with their scheme."
    That’s a false choice

    We would have gone with the EU scheme but because our politicians are shit, not because the UK is feeble
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426
    .
    Leon said:

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
    No its population coverage.

    But its population coverage with a 75% efficacy assumption. That seems a really low efficacy assumption, since those who get infected but are asymptomatic are going to be less likely to infect others.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    It's a moderately crude attempt to quantify an issue.

    Yes, to try and beat this thing, using vaccinations, we need to get every adult vaccinated. Adults are 80% of the population..... If we can vaccinate the children as well, that would be a massive help.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.

    Careful we've all had this discussion.

    Those with confidence in the UK: "we'd also have gone outside the EU had we been members"
    Those with no confidence in the UK: "we'd have succumbed to the EU jackboot had we been members and fallen in with their scheme."
    If you're gonna do this counter-factual (which is so fiendish it is near-pointless) you have to put it in context of a Britain Remaining in the EU

    The EU has a large Covid solidarity fund, which benefits the countries with the biggest per capita death tolls. We would have been "entitled" to a decent share of that, and boy, we would have taken it, eagerly.

    Even if we had at the same time gone it alone on vaccines (dubious), once it became obvious we had more jabs and were racing ahead, the rest of the EU would have said Oi, you took our money, now share the vaccines.

    Morally incontestable. Of course we would yield. And rightly so.

    Ergo, even if we'd pursued a solo vax route (I am doubtful) we'd have been forced to share them, anyway
    It's funny that you think we'd have been entitled to the COVID recovery fund. The rules would have been changed so the UK somehow failed to qualify but paid in hundreds of billions as a net contributor.
    lol, yes possibly

    In truth I think this counter-factual is valueless. We are presuming Britain voted Remain - once you change history that much there are so many imponderables you're in a parallel universe. Who is prime minister? What has happened in Scotland? Is Jeremy Corbyn president of China? Why are we all covered in KY lube? And so on
  • eekeek Posts: 11,669
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    That was my initial conclusion when I first heard about it. Granted I had a bit of prior knowledge from my Dad but there is no way that thing can be refloated as is.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
    It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
    Ah, fair enough, ta - I misread my own misreading

    In that case I find the chart quite encouraging
    It is believed that COVID19 has a "natural R" in the 4-5 range.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,940

    A slightly late "Thank you" to Priti Patel, who yesterday gave Labour a wonderful opportunity to demonstrate that the party consists of a bunch of out of touch North London hand-wringers with no connection to working class voters in the Red Wall.

    I've got a very middle-class friend who posted about another very middle-class friend today who's active in XR on Facebook today.

    All about how she's fighting the good fight, and the Government are doing "nothing".

    I want to point out that (a) the Government isn't doing nothing, and are moving as fast as they can to NetZero by 2050, (b) yes, they could do even more, and if she has suggestions for faster improvements - e.g. better subsidies for ground/air-source heat pumps, or solar panels - then she'd have more impact in writing to her MP, (c) the XR target of NetZero by 2025 is totally unrealistic as the infrastructure can't be delivered that fast and it would destroy the economy and millions of jobs, (d) her "tactics" have alienated hundreds of thousands of ordinary working people who try and get to work every day to earn a crust and turned them off XR, and, (e) the solution to climate change is global over China, India and the USA, with new technological solutions like Nuclear Fusion and renewables, and not hippie virtue-signalling at everyone else's expense in Britain, but.. it's too emotional a subject for her, so I've written nothing and decided to fume on here instead.

    Needless to say she works in London and votes Labour.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,940
    Leon said:

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
    Ah. Thanks.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Unloading the ship might have fun effects in terms of changing the stress on the hull. Ships don't evenly match buoyancy and load along their lengths to start with. This ship is now not floating at the ends.... You could very easily break her back...

    Then you really have fun...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,940
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.

    Careful we've all had this discussion.

    Those with confidence in the UK: "we'd also have gone outside the EU had we been members"
    Those with no confidence in the UK: "we'd have succumbed to the EU jackboot had we been members and fallen in with their scheme."
    If you're gonna do this counter-factual (which is so fiendish it is near-pointless) you have to put it in context of a Britain Remaining in the EU

    The EU has a large Covid solidarity fund, which benefits the countries with the biggest per capita death tolls. We would have been "entitled" to a decent share of that, and boy, we would have taken it, eagerly.

    Even if we had at the same time gone it alone on vaccines (dubious), once it became obvious we had more jabs and were racing ahead, the rest of the EU would have said Oi, you took our money, now share the vaccines.

    Morally incontestable. Of course we would yield. And rightly so.

    Ergo, even if we'd pursued a solo vax route (I am doubtful) we'd have been forced to share them, anyway
    It's funny that you think we'd have been entitled to the COVID recovery fund. The rules would have been changed so the UK somehow failed to qualify but paid in hundreds of billions as a net contributor.
    lol, yes possibly

    In truth I think this counter-factual is valueless. We are presuming Britain voted Remain - once you change history that much there are so many imponderables you're in a parallel universe. Who is prime minister? What has happened in Scotland? Is Jeremy Corbyn president of China? Why are we all covered in KY lube? And so on
    There are many counterfactuals about the 2014-2016 period any of which, had they transpired differently, would have resulted in us narrowly voting to Remain.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
    It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
    Ah, fair enough, ta - I misread my own misreading

    In that case I find the chart quite encouraging
    It is believed that COVID19 has a "natural R" in the 4-5 range.....
    And yet Israel's R now is below 0.6 which shouldn't be possible based on your chart.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,940

    Leon said:

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
    It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
    Ah, thanks again!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
    It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
    Ah, fair enough, ta - I misread my own misreading

    In that case I find the chart quite encouraging
    It is believed that COVID19 has a "natural R" in the 4-5 range.....
    Well in that case your stupid chart is a pile of old Wiltshire pants.

    Israel has vaxxed her way to an R of 0.55, while opening her economy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261

    Leon said:

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
    Ah. Thanks.
    Nope : X is the population coverage. The assumed efficacy is 75%
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,560

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375060133168959489?s=20
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 19,861
    edited March 25

    kinabalu said:

    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.

    As a Labour supporter how do you see Liverpool being placed under commissioners with the full backing of Starmer
    It fits in perfectly with what I think his strategy is. Tacking hard to the centre. Doesn't get my blood pumping but he doesn't give a monkeys about that. All he seems to care about is becoming PM and ending 14 years of Tory mis-rule.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
    It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
    Ah, fair enough, ta - I misread my own misreading

    In that case I find the chart quite encouraging
    It is believed that COVID19 has a "natural R" in the 4-5 range.....
    Well in that case your stupid chart is a pile of old Wiltshire pants.

    Israel has vaxxed her way to an R of 0.55, while opening her economy.
    The haven't relaxed all restrictions - and some quite mild ones drop R a fair bit.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 2,448

    kinabalu said:

    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.

    Maybe. For most normal politicians all four wheels would have come off following prorogation and the failure to die in a ditch. To torture the metaphor, Johnson has proved capable of convincing enough of the voters that he drives the Emperor's New Car, which is happily whizzing around, floating in mid-air with no need of wheels.

    You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
    To quote a shouted conversation between two middle aged men outside my house at 11.30 last night: "I hate Boris. Absolutely hate him. But as long as Labour keep behaving like spoiled kids I'm going to keep voting for him. He's not a racist. He's not a fascist, and when they say he is they look ridiculous."
    From what I could glean, his particular beef was the Bristol protestors, but I inferred that it extended to all shrill left wing voices.
    Now, you might reasonably say this seems a tad unfair on SKS etc. But in the mind if this fella at least a vote for Labour is a vote endorsing students attacking police stations, tearing down of statues, white guilt, EU vaccine madness and all the other fringe views which travel alongside Labour.

    A tad unfair perhaps. SKS has tried to rid the Labour Party of some if its more Corbyny elements. But many people don't pay that much attention and easily conflate the two. My thesis is that the Tories do best when the left is at its maddest.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426
    Hawaii Five-0 meets Glasgow 5-0-0 (and 5-0-0 more).
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 6,424

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375060133168959489?s=20
    Might have to rethink where I take my Christmas ski holiday if the cheese eaters are still only at 49% acceptance! Assuming holidays are allowed anywhere avec or sans a vaccine passport!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,058
    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1375044954381238272

    So we will introduce tracking of individual movements via some kind of app and ID/Covid status system because 5% of people refuse to be vaccinated?

    Madness.

    The government have lost their minds.

    Hope the 1922 backbenchers kill this freedom killing idea dead before it gets more life.

    Any word from the Liberals? Massive State intrusion.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 5,439

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1375044954381238272

    So we will introduce tracking of individual movements via some kind of app and ID/Covid status system because 5% of people refuse to be vaccinated?

    Madness.

    The government have lost their minds.

    Hope the 1922 backbenchers kill this freedom killing idea dead before it gets more life.

    Any word from the Liberals? Massive State intrusion.

    It says "offered".
  • eekeek Posts: 11,669

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Unloading the ship might have fun effects in terms of changing the stress on the hull. Ships don't evenly match buoyancy and load along their lengths to start with. This ship is now not floating at the ends.... You could very easily break her back...

    Then you really have fun...
    There are no good or easy options here. And all carry stupidly large amounts of risk.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,142
    edited March 25

    A slightly late "Thank you" to Priti Patel, who yesterday gave Labour a wonderful opportunity to demonstrate that the party consists of a bunch of out of touch North London hand-wringers with no connection to working class voters in the Red Wall.

    I've got a very middle-class friend who posted about another very middle-class friend today who's active in XR on Facebook today.

    All about how she's fighting the good fight, and the Government are doing "nothing".

    I want to point out that (a) the Government isn't doing nothing, and are moving as fast as they can to NetZero by 2050, (b) yes, they could do even more, and if she has suggestions for faster improvements - e.g. better subsidies for ground/air-source heat pumps, or solar panels - then she'd have more impact in writing to her MP, (c) the XR target of NetZero by 2025 is totally unrealistic as the infrastructure can't be delivered that fast and it would destroy the economy and millions of jobs, (d) her "tactics" have alienated hundreds of thousands of ordinary working people who try and get to work every day to earn a crust and turned them off XR, and, (e) the solution to climate change is global over China, India and the USA, with new technological solutions like Nuclear Fusion and renewables, and not hippie virtue-signalling at everyone else's expense in Britain, but.. it's too emotional a subject for her, so I've written nothing and decided to fume on here instead.

    Needless to say she works in London and votes Labour.
    Their passion and effort have helped cause more action than there otherwise would be, I expect. But there comes a point where if you treat everything that has been done or is being done as 'nothing' you undermine your own efforts.

    There's a range from people who think about environmental issues all day every day whilst composting their own poop and decrying the stain of humanity on mother Gaia, to those who deny the need to do anything and also like to club baby seals for fun to boot.

    Plenty of people in that range are persuadable to major action, but if the extreme activists treat pretty impressive accomplishments and plans as doing nothing, well, it brings people down.

    Why bother to do anything if even those major things are treated like nothing?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 6,424

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375060133168959489?s=20
    PS, who's is the funny flag at the bottom that looks like it has a picture of Spongbob's best friend on it?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 3,137
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.

    Maybe. For most normal politicians all four wheels would have come off following prorogation and the failure to die in a ditch. To torture the metaphor, Johnson has proved capable of convincing enough of the voters that he drives the Emperor's New Car, which is happily whizzing around, floating in mid-air with no need of wheels.

    You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
    To quote a shouted conversation between two middle aged men outside my house at 11.30 last night: "I hate Boris. Absolutely hate him. But as long as Labour keep behaving like spoiled kids I'm going to keep voting for him. He's not a racist. He's not a fascist, and when they say he is they look ridiculous."
    From what I could glean, his particular beef was the Bristol protestors, but I inferred that it extended to all shrill left wing voices.
    Now, you might reasonably say this seems a tad unfair on SKS etc. But in the mind if this fella at least a vote for Labour is a vote endorsing students attacking police stations, tearing down of statues, white guilt, EU vaccine madness and all the other fringe views which travel alongside Labour.

    A tad unfair perhaps. SKS has tried to rid the Labour Party of some if its more Corbyny elements. But many people don't pay that much attention and easily conflate the two. My thesis is that the Tories do best when the left is at its maddest.
    I wouldn't entirely disagree - but GE2017?

    Arguably Labour madder than ever, but they forced a hung Parliament.

    There's clearly something about Johnson that other politicians don't have.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,108
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Unloading the ship might have fun effects in terms of changing the stress on the hull. Ships don't evenly match buoyancy and load along their lengths to start with. This ship is now not floating at the ends.... You could very easily break her back...

    Then you really have fun...
    There are no good or easy options here. And all carry stupidly large amounts of risk.
    Trident is overdue a test.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 339
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Unloading the ship might have fun effects in terms of changing the stress on the hull. Ships don't evenly match buoyancy and load along their lengths to start with. This ship is now not floating at the ends.... You could very easily break her back...

    Then you really have fun...
    There are no good or easy options here. And all carry stupidly large amounts of risk.
    Is it possible to build a pseudo dry-dock around it to refloat?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,092

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    Wonder what the TNT equivalent tonnes would be to achieve that.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 2,448

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
    It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
    Ah, fair enough, ta - I misread my own misreading

    In that case I find the chart quite encouraging
    It is believed that COVID19 has a "natural R" in the 4-5 range.....
    Well in that case your stupid chart is a pile of old Wiltshire pants.

    Israel has vaxxed her way to an R of 0.55, while opening her economy.
    The haven't relaxed all restrictions - and some quite mild ones drop R a fair bit.
    1. This is all based on models and assumptions, though, isn't it? The accuracy of which is patchy at best.

    2. That's the point, isn't it - most restrictions do almost nothing and we could abandon them with almost no impact (e.g. Reopen restaurants). If we have to keep nightclubs closed until the bitter end I can see why - but mist elements of lockdown achieve little.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,176

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375060133168959489?s=20
    Might have to rethink where I take my Christmas ski holiday if the cheese eaters are still only at 49% acceptance! Assuming holidays are allowed anywhere avec or sans a vaccine passport!
    'Cheese-eaters'? Nigel, please mind the xenophobia and the (lactose) intolerance... :wink:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,035

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375060133168959489?s=20
    PS, who's is the funny flag at the bottom that looks like it has a picture of Spongbob's best friend on it?
    The one right at the bottom? Hong Kong.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,058
    Stocky said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1375044954381238272

    So we will introduce tracking of individual movements via some kind of app and ID/Covid status system because 5% of people refuse to be vaccinated?

    Madness.

    The government have lost their minds.

    Hope the 1922 backbenchers kill this freedom killing idea dead before it gets more life.

    Any word from the Liberals? Massive State intrusion.

    It says "offered".
    Indeed. That will be sometime in the summer presumably. Most people offered the vaccine book one straight away - within days is my anecdotal experience.

    So by say September all adults will have been offered and the vast vast majority will have taken the offer.

    Of course pubs will have been open for months by then, so why we need to introduce some covid app that gives you a certificate for entry to the pub at that late stage is beyond me.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 6,424

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.

    Maybe. For most normal politicians all four wheels would have come off following prorogation and the failure to die in a ditch. To torture the metaphor, Johnson has proved capable of convincing enough of the voters that he drives the Emperor's New Car, which is happily whizzing around, floating in mid-air with no need of wheels.

    You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
    To quote a shouted conversation between two middle aged men outside my house at 11.30 last night: "I hate Boris. Absolutely hate him. But as long as Labour keep behaving like spoiled kids I'm going to keep voting for him. He's not a racist. He's not a fascist, and when they say he is they look ridiculous."
    From what I could glean, his particular beef was the Bristol protestors, but I inferred that it extended to all shrill left wing voices.
    Now, you might reasonably say this seems a tad unfair on SKS etc. But in the mind if this fella at least a vote for Labour is a vote endorsing students attacking police stations, tearing down of statues, white guilt, EU vaccine madness and all the other fringe views which travel alongside Labour.

    A tad unfair perhaps. SKS has tried to rid the Labour Party of some if its more Corbyny elements. But many people don't pay that much attention and easily conflate the two. My thesis is that the Tories do best when the left is at its maddest.
    I wouldn't entirely disagree - but GE2017?

    Arguably Labour madder than ever, but they forced a hung Parliament.

    There's clearly something about Johnson that other politicians don't have.
    Values?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 3,137

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375060133168959489?s=20
    PS, who's is the funny flag at the bottom that looks like it has a picture of Spongbob's best friend on it?
    Hong Kong SAR.

    Understandably they don't trust any vaccine provided by the Chinese government.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,108

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375060133168959489?s=20
    I wonder if there’s a snowball effect, in that once you’re at 60 or 70% everyone seems friends and family have it with no issues, and they come round? Of course that does make me worry for the reverse effect for the countries in the lower half.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 6,424

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375060133168959489?s=20
    PS, who's is the funny flag at the bottom that looks like it has a picture of Spongbob's best friend on it?
    Hong Kong SAR.

    Understandably they don't trust any vaccine provided by the Chinese government.
    Thank you. Yes, you probably could understand them worrying that they might be being injected by a tracking device.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Unloading the ship might have fun effects in terms of changing the stress on the hull. Ships don't evenly match buoyancy and load along their lengths to start with. This ship is now not floating at the ends.... You could very easily break her back...

    Then you really have fun...
    There are no good or easy options here. And all carry stupidly large amounts of risk.
    Trident is overdue a test.
    We could dig the Egyptians a whole new canal in about 5 minutes. The environmental impact statement might upset the anti-fracking types a tad, though....

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/51081501_Radiological_investigations_at_the_Taiga_nuclear_explosion_site_Site_description_and_in_situ_measurements
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