How the UK by some margin leads the way in Europe on vaccination – politicalbetting.com
We all know what a huge political issue vaccinations has become in Europe over the past few months and the above table from Politico shows country-by-country how many have actually been jabbed.
Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.
Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.
Careful we've all had this discussion.
Those with confidence in the UK: "we'd also have gone outside the EU had we been members" Those with no confidence in the UK: "we'd have succumbed to the EU jackboot had we been members and fallen in with their scheme."
Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.
Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.
Careful we've all had this discussion.
Those with confidence in the UK: "we'd also have gone outside the EU had we been members" Those with no confidence in the UK: "we'd have succumbed to the EU jackboot had we been members and fallen in with their scheme."
If you're gonna do this counter-factual (which is so fiendish it is near-pointless) you have to put it in context of a Britain Remaining in the EU
The EU has a large Covid solidarity fund, which benefits the countries with the biggest per capita death tolls. We would have been "entitled" to a decent share of that, and boy, we would have taken it, eagerly.
Even if we had at the same time gone it alone on vaccines (dubious), once it became obvious we had more jabs and were racing ahead, the rest of the EU would have said Oi, you took our money, now share the vaccines.
Morally incontestable. Of course we would yield. And rightly so.
Ergo, even if we'd pursued a solo vax route (I am doubtful) we'd have been forced to share them, anyway
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
As a Labour supporter how do you see Liverpool being placed under commissioners with the full backing of Starmer
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
Remember, the last time Labour gained power, they did so when things were going really rather well.
Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.
Careful we've all had this discussion.
Those with confidence in the UK: "we'd also have gone outside the EU had we been members" Those with no confidence in the UK: "we'd have succumbed to the EU jackboot had we been members and fallen in with their scheme."
If you're gonna do this counter-factual (which is so fiendish it is near-pointless) you have to put it in context of a Britain Remaining in the EU
The EU has a large Covid solidarity fund, which benefits the countries with the biggest per capita death tolls. We would have been "entitled" to a decent share of that, and boy, we would have taken it, eagerly.
Even if we had at the same time gone it alone on vaccines (dubious), once it became obvious we had more jabs and were racing ahead, the rest of the EU would have said Oi, you took our money, now share the vaccines.
Morally incontestable. Of course we would yield. And rightly so.
Ergo, even if we'd pursued a solo vax route (I am doubtful) we'd have been forced to share them, anyway
I think the Giant Squid Invasion would have rendered much of that scenario moot, frankly.
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
If - planet sized if - that were to happen, there's as much chance of the LibDems getting the uplift as Labour. They are both policy-free zones led by a bundle of nothing very much.
There’s apparently a high tide on Monday. If she doesn’t float then, it’s two weeks until a higher one.
There’s a Dutch salvage crew on the way, but getting heavy equipment alongside will take time. The sheer size of the thing makes it very difficult to offload cargo, but it will have fuel and possibly some ballast which can be removed to lighten the load.
They’re currently backing out with tugs the last two ships that were behind to the south, so they should soon be able to get at her from both sides. Not an easy job at all, good luck to them!
There’s apparently a high tide on Monday. If she doesn’t float then, it’s two weeks until a higher one.
There’s a Dutch salvage crew on the way, but getting heavy equipment alongside will take time. The sheer size of the thing makes it very difficult to offload cargo, but it will have fuel and possibly some ballast which can be removed to lighten the load.
They’re currently backing out with tugs the last two ships that were behind to the south, so they should soon be able to get at her from both sides. Not an easy job at all, good luck to them!
A slightly late "Thank you" to Priti Patel, who yesterday gave Labour a wonderful opportunity to demonstrate that the party consists of a bunch of out of touch North London hand-wringers with no connection to working class voters in the Red Wall.
When you read the process some countries have to go through to get vaccines rolled out - and compare it to what having a centralised health service can accomplish - I suspect even if we had been in the EU procurement process (and had been given the opportunity to buy "fair shares", not necessarily a given) we'd still have been leading the pack. My jab was very efficient - took less time than the queue on the phone to arrange it.
What has been the experience of posters in the US, which is also doing well, but does not have centralised medicine?
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
I think your last sentence is right; not so sure about the first. One of the reasons UK's done so well on vaccinations is because we have the NHS and it's very easy to identify over 60's, and younger people with chronic conditions.
And the public 'knows' who 'created' the NHS; Labour
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
Remember, the last time Labour gained power, they did so when things were going really rather well.
Yes. But the occasions of "Labour gaining power" is a VERY small data-set.
Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.
This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.
Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.
When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
The real concern is that she breaks her back during the recovery, given she’s grounded at bow and stern, but not in the middle.
One other alternative would be to dam the canal either side of her, and pump in enough water to float her. Again, that will take weeks.
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
Remember, the last time Labour gained power, they did so when things were going really rather well.
Yes. But the occasions of "Labour gaining power" is a VERY small data-set.
Thankfully.
There might be a reason for that. Its good that at the moment the left wants to add no more data to that set.
Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.
This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.
Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.
When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
I'm sure the Panama Canal pilots are being *extremely* careful right now.
Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.
This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.
Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.
When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.
This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.
Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.
When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.
Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
So if a variant has an R0 of 3 or above we'll still need NPIs?
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
No that's not right.
If the vaccine is 75% more effective, but then in the 25% chance you get the infection still you are more likely to be asymptomatic and less likely to infect people even though you are asymptomatically infected, then that will reduce R further.
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
I think your last sentence is right; not so sure about the first. One of the reasons UK's done so well on vaccinations is because we have the NHS and it's very easy to identify over 60's, and younger people with chronic conditions.
And the public 'knows' who 'created' the NHS; Labour
(It was on a Liberal base, but that's forgotten.)
As a conservative sympathiser I would love nothing more than for Labour to go hard on the NHS (again). As a first hand witness to the Copeland byelection and the most fevered campaign i have ever seen. With a paid for local newspaper wrap around claiming the conservatives intended to literally murder children by the withdrawal of consultant led local maternity services from the west cumberland hospital, and the dramatic failure to cur through. Labour needs a message that is wider than that.
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
Maybe. For most normal politicians all four wheels would have come off following prorogation and the failure to die in a ditch. To torture the metaphor, Johnson has proved capable of convincing enough of the voters that he drives the Emperor's New Car, which is happily whizzing around, floating in mid-air with no need of wheels.
You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.
Is there any evidence the Chinese vaccine is "better" ?
I read Sinopharm was a bit pants, like, only 50-60% effective.
The same vaccine that Italy's "elite military police" were lustfully seizing from "secret warehouses", on behalf of the EU (and Denmark) only yesterday.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?
Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.
Is there any evidence the Chinese vaccine is "better" ?
I read Sinopharm was a bit pants, like, only 50-60% effective.
I think Max's comment is they have bought the better Chinese vaccine rather than one of the really bad Chinese vaccines the chinese are trying to sell to Africa.
Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.
This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.
Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.
When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.
Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.
Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.
The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
If - planet sized if - that were to happen, there's as much chance of the LibDems getting the uplift as Labour. They are both policy-free zones led by a bundle of nothing very much.
Can't see that. Somewhat sadly (in a sense) we are imo polarizing under our FPTP system in this era of a "values" war. Everyone bar Con v Lab is getting squeezed out. As for the latter, it's becoming clear to me that they are tacking heavily to the centre and are focused with great discipline on 2 things. Establish Starmer as a credible PM. Neutralize Brexit and "patriotism" and thus weaken the Tory ownership of the WWC Leave identity. It's not inspiring to me but I think it has a decent chance of working. I think the next election will be fought against the backdrop of a very bad economy, with the 2 main parties offering mainly soundbites and platitudes. Tories are fav for largest party but will have their work cut out to get another majority.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?
Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
So if a variant has an R0 of 3 or above we'll still need NPIs?
What is likely is that other measures will still be required, unless we intended COVID to spread to everyone for who the vaccine hasn't taken, or hasn't been vaccinated.
So track and trace, isolating hotspots etc. may well continue.
Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.
Careful we've all had this discussion.
Those with confidence in the UK: "we'd also have gone outside the EU had we been members" Those with no confidence in the UK: "we'd have succumbed to the EU jackboot had we been members and fallen in with their scheme."
If you're gonna do this counter-factual (which is so fiendish it is near-pointless) you have to put it in context of a Britain Remaining in the EU
The EU has a large Covid solidarity fund, which benefits the countries with the biggest per capita death tolls. We would have been "entitled" to a decent share of that, and boy, we would have taken it, eagerly.
Even if we had at the same time gone it alone on vaccines (dubious), once it became obvious we had more jabs and were racing ahead, the rest of the EU would have said Oi, you took our money, now share the vaccines.
Morally incontestable. Of course we would yield. And rightly so.
Ergo, even if we'd pursued a solo vax route (I am doubtful) we'd have been forced to share them, anyway
It's funny that you think we'd have been entitled to the COVID recovery fund. The rules would have been changed so the UK somehow failed to qualify but paid in hundreds of billions as a net contributor.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?
Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?
Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
I think your last sentence is right; not so sure about the first. One of the reasons UK's done so well on vaccinations is because we have the NHS and it's very easy to identify over 60's, and younger people with chronic conditions.
And the public 'knows' who 'created' the NHS; Labour
(It was on a Liberal base, but that's forgotten.)
Well we'll see. I'm very interested in Hartlepool. If Labour can win there, it will apply rocket boosters to my longer term expectations. I don't predict it but fingers crossed.
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
If - planet sized if - that were to happen, there's as much chance of the LibDems getting the uplift as Labour. They are both policy-free zones led by a bundle of nothing very much.
Unfortunately " a bundle of nothing very much" also very much applies to the front bench of the Tories at the moment, and they are the ones with their hands on the levers. From a selfish perspective, I don't much relish the idea of a Labour government, particularly one in hock to the Scottish Nasty Party, but I still think they have plenty of time to watch the inevitable whopping big car crash of Boris de pfeffel Johnson.
Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.
Careful we've all had this discussion.
Those with confidence in the UK: "we'd also have gone outside the EU had we been members" Those with no confidence in the UK: "we'd have succumbed to the EU jackboot had we been members and fallen in with their scheme."
If you're gonna do this counter-factual (which is so fiendish it is near-pointless) you have to put it in context of a Britain Remaining in the EU
The EU has a large Covid solidarity fund, which benefits the countries with the biggest per capita death tolls. We would have been "entitled" to a decent share of that, and boy, we would have taken it, eagerly.
Even if we had at the same time gone it alone on vaccines (dubious), once it became obvious we had more jabs and were racing ahead, the rest of the EU would have said Oi, you took our money, now share the vaccines.
Morally incontestable. Of course we would yield. And rightly so.
Ergo, even if we'd pursued a solo vax route (I am doubtful) we'd have been forced to share them, anyway
It's funny that you think we'd have been entitled to the COVID recovery fund. The rules would have been changed so the UK somehow failed to qualify but paid in hundreds of billions as a net contributor.
The solidarity fund was netted off future rebates... An utter waste of time.
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
Maybe. For most normal politicians all four wheels would have come off following prorogation and the failure to die in a ditch. To torture the metaphor, Johnson has proved capable of convincing enough of the voters that he drives the Emperor's New Car, which is happily whizzing around, floating in mid-air with no need of wheels.
You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
Not quite. This isn't delusional Trumptown. There are exactly two powers that can lead a UK government in this era. Tory and Labour. One or other of those is going to be in charge and/or the likely next winner. There are always at least 4 wheels on the road, at least either Labour or Tory Instead of assuming that the UK population have undergone a USA style conversion to narcissist politics it is more likely that, of the two, a decent number of people think that Tory is better than Labour. That doesn't mean they think Tories are by some absolute standard good. Labour's job is not to defeat a miracle worker. It is to be a bit better than them.
Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.
Careful we've all had this discussion.
Those with confidence in the UK: "we'd also have gone outside the EU had we been members" Those with no confidence in the UK: "we'd have succumbed to the EU jackboot had we been members and fallen in with their scheme."
That’s a false choice
We would have gone with the EU scheme but because our politicians are shit, not because the UK is feeble
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?
Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
No its population coverage.
But its population coverage with a 75% efficacy assumption. That seems a really low efficacy assumption, since those who get infected but are asymptomatic are going to be less likely to infect others.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?
Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
It's a moderately crude attempt to quantify an issue.
Yes, to try and beat this thing, using vaccinations, we need to get every adult vaccinated. Adults are 80% of the population..... If we can vaccinate the children as well, that would be a massive help.
Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.
Careful we've all had this discussion.
Those with confidence in the UK: "we'd also have gone outside the EU had we been members" Those with no confidence in the UK: "we'd have succumbed to the EU jackboot had we been members and fallen in with their scheme."
If you're gonna do this counter-factual (which is so fiendish it is near-pointless) you have to put it in context of a Britain Remaining in the EU
The EU has a large Covid solidarity fund, which benefits the countries with the biggest per capita death tolls. We would have been "entitled" to a decent share of that, and boy, we would have taken it, eagerly.
Even if we had at the same time gone it alone on vaccines (dubious), once it became obvious we had more jabs and were racing ahead, the rest of the EU would have said Oi, you took our money, now share the vaccines.
Morally incontestable. Of course we would yield. And rightly so.
Ergo, even if we'd pursued a solo vax route (I am doubtful) we'd have been forced to share them, anyway
It's funny that you think we'd have been entitled to the COVID recovery fund. The rules would have been changed so the UK somehow failed to qualify but paid in hundreds of billions as a net contributor.
lol, yes possibly
In truth I think this counter-factual is valueless. We are presuming Britain voted Remain - once you change history that much there are so many imponderables you're in a parallel universe. Who is prime minister? What has happened in Scotland? Is Jeremy Corbyn president of China? Why are we all covered in KY lube? And so on
Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.
This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.
Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.
When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.
Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.
Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.
The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
That was my initial conclusion when I first heard about it. Granted I had a bit of prior knowledge from my Dad but there is no way that thing can be refloated as is.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?
Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
Ah, fair enough, ta - I misread my own misreading
In that case I find the chart quite encouraging
It is believed that COVID19 has a "natural R" in the 4-5 range.....
A slightly late "Thank you" to Priti Patel, who yesterday gave Labour a wonderful opportunity to demonstrate that the party consists of a bunch of out of touch North London hand-wringers with no connection to working class voters in the Red Wall.
I've got a very middle-class friend who posted about another very middle-class friend today who's active in XR on Facebook today.
All about how she's fighting the good fight, and the Government are doing "nothing".
I want to point out that (a) the Government isn't doing nothing, and are moving as fast as they can to NetZero by 2050, (b) yes, they could do even more, and if she has suggestions for faster improvements - e.g. better subsidies for ground/air-source heat pumps, or solar panels - then she'd have more impact in writing to her MP, (c) the XR target of NetZero by 2025 is totally unrealistic as the infrastructure can't be delivered that fast and it would destroy the economy and millions of jobs, (d) her "tactics" have alienated hundreds of thousands of ordinary working people who try and get to work every day to earn a crust and turned them off XR, and, (e) the solution to climate change is global over China, India and the USA, with new technological solutions like Nuclear Fusion and renewables, and not hippie virtue-signalling at everyone else's expense in Britain, but.. it's too emotional a subject for her, so I've written nothing and decided to fume on here instead.
Needless to say she works in London and votes Labour.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?
Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.
This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.
Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.
When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.
Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.
Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.
The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
Unloading the ship might have fun effects in terms of changing the stress on the hull. Ships don't evenly match buoyancy and load along their lengths to start with. This ship is now not floating at the ends.... You could very easily break her back...
Useful to note that both of the EU countries at the top (Malta and Hungary) have both secured independent supply of vaccines from outside of the EU scheme. Malta paid Pfizer loads of cash for fast delivery and Hungary has got the better Chinese vaccine iirc.
Careful we've all had this discussion.
Those with confidence in the UK: "we'd also have gone outside the EU had we been members" Those with no confidence in the UK: "we'd have succumbed to the EU jackboot had we been members and fallen in with their scheme."
If you're gonna do this counter-factual (which is so fiendish it is near-pointless) you have to put it in context of a Britain Remaining in the EU
The EU has a large Covid solidarity fund, which benefits the countries with the biggest per capita death tolls. We would have been "entitled" to a decent share of that, and boy, we would have taken it, eagerly.
Even if we had at the same time gone it alone on vaccines (dubious), once it became obvious we had more jabs and were racing ahead, the rest of the EU would have said Oi, you took our money, now share the vaccines.
Morally incontestable. Of course we would yield. And rightly so.
Ergo, even if we'd pursued a solo vax route (I am doubtful) we'd have been forced to share them, anyway
It's funny that you think we'd have been entitled to the COVID recovery fund. The rules would have been changed so the UK somehow failed to qualify but paid in hundreds of billions as a net contributor.
lol, yes possibly
In truth I think this counter-factual is valueless. We are presuming Britain voted Remain - once you change history that much there are so many imponderables you're in a parallel universe. Who is prime minister? What has happened in Scotland? Is Jeremy Corbyn president of China? Why are we all covered in KY lube? And so on
There are many counterfactuals about the 2014-2016 period any of which, had they transpired differently, would have resulted in us narrowly voting to Remain.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?
Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
Ah, fair enough, ta - I misread my own misreading
In that case I find the chart quite encouraging
It is believed that COVID19 has a "natural R" in the 4-5 range.....
And yet Israel's R now is below 0.6 which shouldn't be possible based on your chart.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?
Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?
Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
Ah, fair enough, ta - I misread my own misreading
In that case I find the chart quite encouraging
It is believed that COVID19 has a "natural R" in the 4-5 range.....
Well in that case your stupid chart is a pile of old Wiltshire pants.
Israel has vaxxed her way to an R of 0.55, while opening her economy.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?
Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
Ah. Thanks.
Nope : X is the population coverage. The assumed efficacy is 75%
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
As a Labour supporter how do you see Liverpool being placed under commissioners with the full backing of Starmer
It fits in perfectly with what I think his strategy is. Tacking hard to the centre. Doesn't get my blood pumping but he doesn't give a monkeys about that. All he seems to care about is becoming PM and ending 14 years of Tory mis-rule.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?
Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
Ah, fair enough, ta - I misread my own misreading
In that case I find the chart quite encouraging
It is believed that COVID19 has a "natural R" in the 4-5 range.....
Well in that case your stupid chart is a pile of old Wiltshire pants.
Israel has vaxxed her way to an R of 0.55, while opening her economy.
The haven't relaxed all restrictions - and some quite mild ones drop R a fair bit.
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
Maybe. For most normal politicians all four wheels would have come off following prorogation and the failure to die in a ditch. To torture the metaphor, Johnson has proved capable of convincing enough of the voters that he drives the Emperor's New Car, which is happily whizzing around, floating in mid-air with no need of wheels.
You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
To quote a shouted conversation between two middle aged men outside my house at 11.30 last night: "I hate Boris. Absolutely hate him. But as long as Labour keep behaving like spoiled kids I'm going to keep voting for him. He's not a racist. He's not a fascist, and when they say he is they look ridiculous." From what I could glean, his particular beef was the Bristol protestors, but I inferred that it extended to all shrill left wing voices. Now, you might reasonably say this seems a tad unfair on SKS etc. But in the mind if this fella at least a vote for Labour is a vote endorsing students attacking police stations, tearing down of statues, white guilt, EU vaccine madness and all the other fringe views which travel alongside Labour.
A tad unfair perhaps. SKS has tried to rid the Labour Party of some if its more Corbyny elements. But many people don't pay that much attention and easily conflate the two. My thesis is that the Tories do best when the left is at its maddest.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
Might have to rethink where I take my Christmas ski holiday if the cheese eaters are still only at 49% acceptance! Assuming holidays are allowed anywhere avec or sans a vaccine passport!
Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.
This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.
Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.
When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.
Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.
Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.
The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
Unloading the ship might have fun effects in terms of changing the stress on the hull. Ships don't evenly match buoyancy and load along their lengths to start with. This ship is now not floating at the ends.... You could very easily break her back...
Then you really have fun...
There are no good or easy options here. And all carry stupidly large amounts of risk.
A slightly late "Thank you" to Priti Patel, who yesterday gave Labour a wonderful opportunity to demonstrate that the party consists of a bunch of out of touch North London hand-wringers with no connection to working class voters in the Red Wall.
I've got a very middle-class friend who posted about another very middle-class friend today who's active in XR on Facebook today.
All about how she's fighting the good fight, and the Government are doing "nothing".
I want to point out that (a) the Government isn't doing nothing, and are moving as fast as they can to NetZero by 2050, (b) yes, they could do even more, and if she has suggestions for faster improvements - e.g. better subsidies for ground/air-source heat pumps, or solar panels - then she'd have more impact in writing to her MP, (c) the XR target of NetZero by 2025 is totally unrealistic as the infrastructure can't be delivered that fast and it would destroy the economy and millions of jobs, (d) her "tactics" have alienated hundreds of thousands of ordinary working people who try and get to work every day to earn a crust and turned them off XR, and, (e) the solution to climate change is global over China, India and the USA, with new technological solutions like Nuclear Fusion and renewables, and not hippie virtue-signalling at everyone else's expense in Britain, but.. it's too emotional a subject for her, so I've written nothing and decided to fume on here instead.
Needless to say she works in London and votes Labour.
Their passion and effort have helped cause more action than there otherwise would be, I expect. But there comes a point where if you treat everything that has been done or is being done as 'nothing' you undermine your own efforts.
There's a range from people who think about environmental issues all day every day whilst composting their own poop and decrying the stain of humanity on mother Gaia, to those who deny the need to do anything and also like to club baby seals for fun to boot.
Plenty of people in that range are persuadable to major action, but if the extreme activists treat pretty impressive accomplishments and plans as doing nothing, well, it brings people down.
Why bother to do anything if even those major things are treated like nothing?
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
Maybe. For most normal politicians all four wheels would have come off following prorogation and the failure to die in a ditch. To torture the metaphor, Johnson has proved capable of convincing enough of the voters that he drives the Emperor's New Car, which is happily whizzing around, floating in mid-air with no need of wheels.
You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
To quote a shouted conversation between two middle aged men outside my house at 11.30 last night: "I hate Boris. Absolutely hate him. But as long as Labour keep behaving like spoiled kids I'm going to keep voting for him. He's not a racist. He's not a fascist, and when they say he is they look ridiculous." From what I could glean, his particular beef was the Bristol protestors, but I inferred that it extended to all shrill left wing voices. Now, you might reasonably say this seems a tad unfair on SKS etc. But in the mind if this fella at least a vote for Labour is a vote endorsing students attacking police stations, tearing down of statues, white guilt, EU vaccine madness and all the other fringe views which travel alongside Labour.
A tad unfair perhaps. SKS has tried to rid the Labour Party of some if its more Corbyny elements. But many people don't pay that much attention and easily conflate the two. My thesis is that the Tories do best when the left is at its maddest.
I wouldn't entirely disagree - but GE2017?
Arguably Labour madder than ever, but they forced a hung Parliament.
There's clearly something about Johnson that other politicians don't have.
Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.
This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.
Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.
When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.
Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.
Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.
The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
Unloading the ship might have fun effects in terms of changing the stress on the hull. Ships don't evenly match buoyancy and load along their lengths to start with. This ship is now not floating at the ends.... You could very easily break her back...
Then you really have fun...
There are no good or easy options here. And all carry stupidly large amounts of risk.
Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.
This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.
Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.
When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.
Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.
Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.
The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
Unloading the ship might have fun effects in terms of changing the stress on the hull. Ships don't evenly match buoyancy and load along their lengths to start with. This ship is now not floating at the ends.... You could very easily break her back...
Then you really have fun...
There are no good or easy options here. And all carry stupidly large amounts of risk.
Is it possible to build a pseudo dry-dock around it to refloat?
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?
Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
Ah, fair enough, ta - I misread my own misreading
In that case I find the chart quite encouraging
It is believed that COVID19 has a "natural R" in the 4-5 range.....
Well in that case your stupid chart is a pile of old Wiltshire pants.
Israel has vaxxed her way to an R of 0.55, while opening her economy.
The haven't relaxed all restrictions - and some quite mild ones drop R a fair bit.
1. This is all based on models and assumptions, though, isn't it? The accuracy of which is patchy at best.
2. That's the point, isn't it - most restrictions do almost nothing and we could abandon them with almost no impact (e.g. Reopen restaurants). If we have to keep nightclubs closed until the bitter end I can see why - but mist elements of lockdown achieve little.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
Might have to rethink where I take my Christmas ski holiday if the cheese eaters are still only at 49% acceptance! Assuming holidays are allowed anywhere avec or sans a vaccine passport!
'Cheese-eaters'? Nigel, please mind the xenophobia and the (lactose) intolerance...
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
So we will introduce tracking of individual movements via some kind of app and ID/Covid status system because 5% of people refuse to be vaccinated?
Madness.
The government have lost their minds.
Hope the 1922 backbenchers kill this freedom killing idea dead before it gets more life.
Any word from the Liberals? Massive State intrusion.
It says "offered".
Indeed. That will be sometime in the summer presumably. Most people offered the vaccine book one straight away - within days is my anecdotal experience.
So by say September all adults will have been offered and the vast vast majority will have taken the offer.
Of course pubs will have been open for months by then, so why we need to introduce some covid app that gives you a certificate for entry to the pub at that late stage is beyond me.
I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.
Maybe. For most normal politicians all four wheels would have come off following prorogation and the failure to die in a ditch. To torture the metaphor, Johnson has proved capable of convincing enough of the voters that he drives the Emperor's New Car, which is happily whizzing around, floating in mid-air with no need of wheels.
You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
To quote a shouted conversation between two middle aged men outside my house at 11.30 last night: "I hate Boris. Absolutely hate him. But as long as Labour keep behaving like spoiled kids I'm going to keep voting for him. He's not a racist. He's not a fascist, and when they say he is they look ridiculous." From what I could glean, his particular beef was the Bristol protestors, but I inferred that it extended to all shrill left wing voices. Now, you might reasonably say this seems a tad unfair on SKS etc. But in the mind if this fella at least a vote for Labour is a vote endorsing students attacking police stations, tearing down of statues, white guilt, EU vaccine madness and all the other fringe views which travel alongside Labour.
A tad unfair perhaps. SKS has tried to rid the Labour Party of some if its more Corbyny elements. But many people don't pay that much attention and easily conflate the two. My thesis is that the Tories do best when the left is at its maddest.
I wouldn't entirely disagree - but GE2017?
Arguably Labour madder than ever, but they forced a hung Parliament.
There's clearly something about Johnson that other politicians don't have.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
I wonder if there’s a snowball effect, in that once you’re at 60 or 70% everyone seems friends and family have it with no issues, and they come round? Of course that does make me worry for the reverse effect for the countries in the lower half.
There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.
This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.
Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.
When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.
Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.
Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.
The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
Unloading the ship might have fun effects in terms of changing the stress on the hull. Ships don't evenly match buoyancy and load along their lengths to start with. This ship is now not floating at the ends.... You could very easily break her back...
Then you really have fun...
There are no good or easy options here. And all carry stupidly large amounts of risk.
Trident is overdue a test.
We could dig the Egyptians a whole new canal in about 5 minutes. The environmental impact statement might upset the anti-fracking types a tad, though....
Comments
Anyhow, I see that on the list of Santander closures is the branch here in Bingley. The last vestige of the Bradford and Bingley leaves the town.
Those with confidence in the UK: "we'd also have gone outside the EU had we been members"
Those with no confidence in the UK: "we'd have succumbed to the EU jackboot had we been members and fallen in with their scheme."
If we stay at 500k per day, there’s 140 days until everyone’s been done twice. First week in August, just in time to start on the schoolkids.
The EU has a large Covid solidarity fund, which benefits the countries with the biggest per capita death tolls. We would have been "entitled" to a decent share of that, and boy, we would have taken it, eagerly.
Even if we had at the same time gone it alone on vaccines (dubious), once it became obvious we had more jabs and were racing ahead, the rest of the EU would have said Oi, you took our money, now share the vaccines.
Morally incontestable. Of course we would yield. And rightly so.
Ergo, even if we'd pursued a solo vax route (I am doubtful) we'd have been forced to share them, anyway
There’s a Dutch salvage crew on the way, but getting heavy equipment alongside will take time. The sheer size of the thing makes it very difficult to offload cargo, but it will have fuel and possibly some ballast which can be removed to lighten the load.
They’re currently backing out with tugs the last two ships that were behind to the south, so they should soon be able to get at her from both sides. Not an easy job at all, good luck to them!
When you read the process some countries have to go through to get vaccines rolled out - and compare it to what having a centralised health service can accomplish - I suspect even if we had been in the EU procurement process (and had been given the opportunity to buy "fair shares", not necessarily a given) we'd still have been leading the pack. My jab was very efficient - took less time than the queue on the phone to arrange it.
What has been the experience of posters in the US, which is also doing well, but does not have centralised medicine?
And the public 'knows' who 'created' the NHS; Labour
(It was on a Liberal base, but that's forgotten.)
Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.
When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
The real concern is that she breaks her back during the recovery, given she’s grounded at bow and stern, but not in the middle.
One other alternative would be to dam the canal either side of her, and pump in enough water to float her. Again, that will take weeks.
There might be a reason for that. Its good that at the moment the left wants to add no more data to that set.
One of the replies states:
https://twitter.com/manofmysteries1/status/1375018264556941314
The person seems aptly named
https://twitter.com/CruiseGuide/status/1375055138847653889?s=20
So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table
*the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.
Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
If the vaccine is 75% more effective, but then in the 25% chance you get the infection still you are more likely to be asymptomatic and less likely to infect people even though you are asymptomatically infected, then that will reduce R further.
Labour needs a message that is wider than that.
You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
I read Sinopharm was a bit pants, like, only 50-60% effective.
Piquant
Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.
Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769
The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
So track and trace, isolating hotspots etc. may well continue.
In that case I find the chart quite encouraging
We would have gone with the EU scheme but because our politicians are shit, not because the UK is feeble
But its population coverage with a 75% efficacy assumption. That seems a really low efficacy assumption, since those who get infected but are asymptomatic are going to be less likely to infect others.
Yes, to try and beat this thing, using vaccinations, we need to get every adult vaccinated. Adults are 80% of the population..... If we can vaccinate the children as well, that would be a massive help.
In truth I think this counter-factual is valueless. We are presuming Britain voted Remain - once you change history that much there are so many imponderables you're in a parallel universe. Who is prime minister? What has happened in Scotland? Is Jeremy Corbyn president of China? Why are we all covered in KY lube? And so on
All about how she's fighting the good fight, and the Government are doing "nothing".
I want to point out that (a) the Government isn't doing nothing, and are moving as fast as they can to NetZero by 2050, (b) yes, they could do even more, and if she has suggestions for faster improvements - e.g. better subsidies for ground/air-source heat pumps, or solar panels - then she'd have more impact in writing to her MP, (c) the XR target of NetZero by 2025 is totally unrealistic as the infrastructure can't be delivered that fast and it would destroy the economy and millions of jobs, (d) her "tactics" have alienated hundreds of thousands of ordinary working people who try and get to work every day to earn a crust and turned them off XR, and, (e) the solution to climate change is global over China, India and the USA, with new technological solutions like Nuclear Fusion and renewables, and not hippie virtue-signalling at everyone else's expense in Britain, but.. it's too emotional a subject for her, so I've written nothing and decided to fume on here instead.
Needless to say she works in London and votes Labour.
Then you really have fun...
Israel has vaxxed her way to an R of 0.55, while opening her economy.
https://twitter.com/ofalafel/status/1375027132947165185?s=21
https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1375023950334459904
Personally, I am dead against. It is a massive, Ever Given-sized Trojan Horse for tracking our movements in general.
From what I could glean, his particular beef was the Bristol protestors, but I inferred that it extended to all shrill left wing voices.
Now, you might reasonably say this seems a tad unfair on SKS etc. But in the mind if this fella at least a vote for Labour is a vote endorsing students attacking police stations, tearing down of statues, white guilt, EU vaccine madness and all the other fringe views which travel alongside Labour.
A tad unfair perhaps. SKS has tried to rid the Labour Party of some if its more Corbyny elements. But many people don't pay that much attention and easily conflate the two. My thesis is that the Tories do best when the left is at its maddest.
So we will introduce tracking of individual movements via some kind of app and ID/Covid status system because 5% of people refuse to be vaccinated?
Madness.
The government have lost their minds.
Hope the 1922 backbenchers kill this freedom killing idea dead before it gets more life.
Any word from the Liberals? Massive State intrusion.
There's a range from people who think about environmental issues all day every day whilst composting their own poop and decrying the stain of humanity on mother Gaia, to those who deny the need to do anything and also like to club baby seals for fun to boot.
Plenty of people in that range are persuadable to major action, but if the extreme activists treat pretty impressive accomplishments and plans as doing nothing, well, it brings people down.
Why bother to do anything if even those major things are treated like nothing?
Arguably Labour madder than ever, but they forced a hung Parliament.
There's clearly something about Johnson that other politicians don't have.
2. That's the point, isn't it - most restrictions do almost nothing and we could abandon them with almost no impact (e.g. Reopen restaurants). If we have to keep nightclubs closed until the bitter end I can see why - but mist elements of lockdown achieve little.
So by say September all adults will have been offered and the vast vast majority will have taken the offer.
Of course pubs will have been open for months by then, so why we need to introduce some covid app that gives you a certificate for entry to the pub at that late stage is beyond me.
Understandably they don't trust any vaccine provided by the Chinese government.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/51081501_Radiological_investigations_at_the_Taiga_nuclear_explosion_site_Site_description_and_in_situ_measurements