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How the UK by some margin leads the way in Europe on vaccination – politicalbetting.com

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,858

    kinabalu said:

    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.

    Maybe. For most normal politicians all four wheels would have come off following prorogation and the failure to die in a ditch. To torture the metaphor, Johnson has proved capable of convincing enough of the voters that he drives the Emperor's New Car, which is happily whizzing around, floating in mid-air with no need of wheels.

    You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
    Yes, I'm still very wary of him. He has the x factor, no question. It's irritating to put it mildly. But I see hard economic times ahead and I'm thinking (hoping) people will start to get a bit more serious about who is in charge.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.

    Maybe. For most normal politicians all four wheels would have come off following prorogation and the failure to die in a ditch. To torture the metaphor, Johnson has proved capable of convincing enough of the voters that he drives the Emperor's New Car, which is happily whizzing around, floating in mid-air with no need of wheels.

    You'd think that the reality distortion would have to be punctured eventually, but clearly he has a relationship with his supporters that is beyond my ken. So how to judge when and why this might happen?
    To quote a shouted conversation between two middle aged men outside my house at 11.30 last night: "I hate Boris. Absolutely hate him. But as long as Labour keep behaving like spoiled kids I'm going to keep voting for him. He's not a racist. He's not a fascist, and when they say he is they look ridiculous."
    From what I could glean, his particular beef was the Bristol protestors, but I inferred that it extended to all shrill left wing voices.
    Now, you might reasonably say this seems a tad unfair on SKS etc. But in the mind if this fella at least a vote for Labour is a vote endorsing students attacking police stations, tearing down of statues, white guilt, EU vaccine madness and all the other fringe views which travel alongside Labour.

    A tad unfair perhaps. SKS has tried to rid the Labour Party of some if its more Corbyny elements. But many people don't pay that much attention and easily conflate the two. My thesis is that the Tories do best when the left is at its maddest.
    I wouldn't entirely disagree - but GE2017?

    Arguably Labour madder than ever, but they forced a hung Parliament.

    There's clearly something about Johnson that other politicians don't have.
    Yes, but the Tories did very well in GE 2017. They got huge numbera of votes compared to the previous four elections. It was just that Labour also got a lot of votes.
    This sounds stupid, but isn't. I don't think.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,461

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1375044954381238272

    So we will introduce tracking of individual movements via some kind of app and ID/Covid status system because 5% of people refuse to be vaccinated?

    Madness.

    The government have lost their minds.

    Hope the 1922 backbenchers kill this freedom killing idea dead before it gets more life.

    Any word from the Liberals? Massive State intrusion.

    The government havent lost their minds. We voted in a nationalist authoritarian regime. They are telling us what it will look like.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375060133168959489?s=20
    PS, who's is the funny flag at the bottom that looks like it has a picture of Spongbob's best friend on it?
    Hong Kong, I think.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Unloading the ship might have fun effects in terms of changing the stress on the hull. Ships don't evenly match buoyancy and load along their lengths to start with. This ship is now not floating at the ends.... You could very easily break her back...

    Then you really have fun...
    There are no good or easy options here. And all carry stupidly large amounts of risk.
    Trident is overdue a test.
    We could dig the Egyptians a whole new canal in about 5 minutes. The environmental impact statement might upset the anti-fracking types a tad, though....

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/51081501_Radiological_investigations_at_the_Taiga_nuclear_explosion_site_Site_description_and_in_situ_measurements
    Yes, double the width and remove the risk of the problem in future too. Problem solved.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited March 2021

    Leon said:

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
    Ah. Thanks.
    Nope : X is the population coverage. The assumed efficacy is 75%
    Immunity from prior infection in both the vaccinated and unvaccinated also adds and drops R (slowly) if vaccination on it's own can't push r below 1.

    The table actually demonstrates why vaccination passports for mass events is likely neccessary though.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,766

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375060133168959489?s=20
    Might have to rethink where I take my Christmas ski holiday if the cheese eaters are still only at 49% acceptance! Assuming holidays are allowed anywhere avec or sans a vaccine passport!
    'Cheese-eaters'? Nigel, please mind the xenophobia and the (lactose) intolerance... :wink:
    I have been infected by some of the posters on here lol. Anyway, I have a kind of split personality on my attitude to the French. Part of me loves them, the other part thinks that perhaps I can make an exception to my distaste for xenophobia, particularly when I see M Macron.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375060133168959489?s=20
    PS, who's is the funny flag at the bottom that looks like it has a picture of Spongbob's best friend on it?
    Hong Kong SAR.

    Understandably they don't trust any vaccine provided by the Chinese government.
    And, were we still in the 1990s, British Hong Kong would be near the top of the list for almost precisely the same reasons.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
    It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
    Ah, fair enough, ta - I misread my own misreading

    In that case I find the chart quite encouraging
    It is believed that COVID19 has a "natural R" in the 4-5 range.....
    Well in that case your stupid chart is a pile of old Wiltshire pants.

    Israel has vaxxed her way to an R of 0.55, while opening her economy.
    The haven't relaxed all restrictions - and some quite mild ones drop R a fair bit.
    Or perhaps the vaccine is more than 75% effective at preventing infection - which would be extremely good news if true.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    kinabalu said:

    I'm expecting the Cons to do well in the locals and to win Hartlepool. But I'm feeling more chipper about GE24 (for Labour) than I have for a while. I think when the wheels come off this government it will be all four of them.

    All four? I see this government as more of a Reliant Robin, complete with dodgy-if-charming driver and occasional ability to land a sweet deal. Not some kind of fully functional four-wheeled vehicle.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Anyone explained why the ship decided to turn right?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
    It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
    Ah, fair enough, ta - I misread my own misreading

    In that case I find the chart quite encouraging
    It is believed that COVID19 has a "natural R" in the 4-5 range.....
    Well in that case your stupid chart is a pile of old Wiltshire pants.

    Israel has vaxxed her way to an R of 0.55, while opening her economy.
    The haven't relaxed all restrictions - and some quite mild ones drop R a fair bit.
    1. This is all based on models and assumptions, though, isn't it? The accuracy of which is patchy at best.

    2. That's the point, isn't it - most restrictions do almost nothing and we could abandon them with almost no impact (e.g. Reopen restaurants). If we have to keep nightclubs closed until the bitter end I can see why - but mist elements of lockdown achieve little.
    1. The point is that when all restrictions are lifted, completely, COVID will quite possibly increase. Do you we just let it? Quite possibly.

    Hopefully the answer is that R will fall below 1 with no restrictions and, say, an 85% take-up in the adult population as a whole. But we can't be sure of that.

    2. Actually, the restrictions are quite effective. From an R of 4-5 to the current level - with the vaccines still kicking in.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,589

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Unloading the ship might have fun effects in terms of changing the stress on the hull. Ships don't evenly match buoyancy and load along their lengths to start with. This ship is now not floating at the ends.... You could very easily break her back...

    Then you really have fun...
    There are no good or easy options here. And all carry stupidly large amounts of risk.
    Trident is overdue a test.
    You are Edward Teller...
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Teller#Operation_Plowshare_and_Project_Chariot
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    That was my initial conclusion when I first heard about it. Granted I had a bit of prior knowledge from my Dad but there is no way that thing can be refloated as is.
    What's the economic impact of this? Who is it costing, and how much?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    Stocky said:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1375044954381238272

    So we will introduce tracking of individual movements via some kind of app and ID/Covid status system because 5% of people refuse to be vaccinated?

    Madness.

    The government have lost their minds.

    Hope the 1922 backbenchers kill this freedom killing idea dead before it gets more life.

    Any word from the Liberals? Massive State intrusion.

    It says "offered".
    Indeed. That will be sometime in the summer presumably. Most people offered the vaccine book one straight away - within days is my anecdotal experience.

    So by say September all adults will have been offered and the vast vast majority will have taken the offer.

    Of course pubs will have been open for months by then, so why we need to introduce some covid app that gives you a certificate for entry to the pub at that late stage is beyond me.
    I don't think this will come to pass. Legal restrictions removed from 21 June remember - so there cannot be a legal bar from going to pub. Guidance though? The question will be whether individual pubs/chains will of their own volition bring something in. I guess I can just about accept this as it is their right to govern rules of entry. I shall take my business elsewhere. Ditto any business that deems it acceptable to retain perspex screens post 21 June.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Presumably there is a reinsurer in Bermuda that is wincing right now?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited March 2021

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
    It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
    Ah, fair enough, ta - I misread my own misreading

    In that case I find the chart quite encouraging
    It is believed that COVID19 has a "natural R" in the 4-5 range.....
    Well in that case your stupid chart is a pile of old Wiltshire pants.

    Israel has vaxxed her way to an R of 0.55, while opening her economy.
    The haven't relaxed all restrictions - and some quite mild ones drop R a fair bit.
    Or perhaps the vaccine is more than 75% effective at preventing infection - which would be extremely good news if true.
    Precisely my point. If you're 75% less likely to be infected that's a good start. But if you're infected but very mildly and unlikely to be coughing or spreading many infectious aerosols etc, then that too will reduce R further.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,038
    kle4 said:

    A slightly late "Thank you" to Priti Patel, who yesterday gave Labour a wonderful opportunity to demonstrate that the party consists of a bunch of out of touch North London hand-wringers with no connection to working class voters in the Red Wall.

    I've got a very middle-class friend who posted about another very middle-class friend today who's active in XR on Facebook today.

    All about how she's fighting the good fight, and the Government are doing "nothing".

    I want to point out that (a) the Government isn't doing nothing, and are moving as fast as they can to NetZero by 2050, (b) yes, they could do even more, and if she has suggestions for faster improvements - e.g. better subsidies for ground/air-source heat pumps, or solar panels - then she'd have more impact in writing to her MP, (c) the XR target of NetZero by 2025 is totally unrealistic as the infrastructure can't be delivered that fast and it would destroy the economy and millions of jobs, (d) her "tactics" have alienated hundreds of thousands of ordinary working people who try and get to work every day to earn a crust and turned them off XR, and, (e) the solution to climate change is global over China, India and the USA, with new technological solutions like Nuclear Fusion and renewables, and not hippie virtue-signalling at everyone else's expense in Britain, but.. it's too emotional a subject for her, so I've written nothing and decided to fume on here instead.

    Needless to say she works in London and votes Labour.
    Their passion and effort have helped cause more action than there otherwise would be, I expect. But there comes a point where if you treat everything that has been done or is being done as 'nothing' you undermine your own efforts.

    There's a range from people who think about environmental issues all day every day whilst composting their own poop and decrying the stain of humanity on mother Gaia, to those who deny the need to do anything and also like to club baby seals for fun to boot.

    Plenty of people in that range are persuadable to major action, but if the extreme activists treat pretty impressive accomplishments and plans as doing nothing, well, it brings people down.

    Why bother to do anything if even those major things are treated like nothing?
    Exactly. My message to her would be to do regular protests (marches), write letters, and contribute to/or join-in with environmental causes. That's what I'm trying to do with my work to get into Nuclear Fusion with my firm.

    That's real activism (and, goodness, that word alone is a turn-off): it's about smart action to get the results you want; it isn't about making yourself feel better for the adoration of your peer group.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375060133168959489?s=20
    PS, who's is the funny flag at the bottom that looks like it has a picture of Spongbob's best friend on it?
    Hong Kong SAR.

    Understandably they don't trust any vaccine provided by the Chinese government.
    Thank you. Yes, you probably could understand them worrying that they might be being injected by a tracking device.
    Not even that. If a local functionary has to hit his vaccination targets the system would encourage them to use saline solution instead. Won't hurt you, but won't protect you either.

    How confident would you be that the quality control is strict enough to risk the wrath of party bosses by slowing things down.

    So many ways the corruption, and intolerance for criticism, could result in a bad outcome from the vaccine without anyone involved being actively malicious.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626
    alex_ said:

    Anyone explained why the ship decided to turn right?

    Almost certainly due to flow effects - a large ship in a small, shallow channel, such as the canal, will try to do anything other than move in a straight line.

    There was a hilarious bit in the Apollo project - the original idea for moving the Saturn V to the launchpad was to dig 1 or 2 shallow canals and float it along on a barge system. Fortunately, some canal engineers got involved and pointed out why that was a bad, bad idea.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
    It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
    Ah, fair enough, ta - I misread my own misreading

    In that case I find the chart quite encouraging
    It is believed that COVID19 has a "natural R" in the 4-5 range.....
    Well in that case your stupid chart is a pile of old Wiltshire pants.

    Israel has vaxxed her way to an R of 0.55, while opening her economy.
    The haven't relaxed all restrictions - and some quite mild ones drop R a fair bit.
    1. This is all based on models and assumptions, though, isn't it? The accuracy of which is patchy at best.

    2. That's the point, isn't it - most restrictions do almost nothing and we could abandon them with almost no impact (e.g. Reopen restaurants). If we have to keep nightclubs closed until the bitter end I can see why - but mist elements of lockdown achieve little.
    It isn't always the case that restrictions reduce the R rate. Some ill thought out ones can potentially increase it.

    The reopening of golf courses on 29th March should by itself reduce the R rate by allowing people to exercise at least 150 yards away from anyone but their playing partners, rather than exercising with the multitudes of other walkers, joggers, dog walkers and cyclists milling around in the local town park. For 3 months you were allowed to go for a walk outside with one other person, provided it didn't involve hitting a golf ball while doing so.

    Ditto for outdoor tennis. What exactly was wrong with singles tennis outdoors?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,461
    alex_ said:

    Anyone explained why the ship decided to turn right?

    Corbyn? Culture wars?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Everyone so well dressed.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Incredible. 73% of all anti-vaxxer disinformation can be traced back to one of 12 individuals. Not one of them is banned on all of Facebook, Twitter and Instagram

    https://mashable.com/article/disinformation-dozen-study-anti-vaxxers/
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1375060133168959489?s=20
    PS, who's is the funny flag at the bottom that looks like it has a picture of Spongbob's best friend on it?
    Hong Kong SAR.

    Understandably they don't trust any vaccine provided by the Chinese government.
    And, were we still in the 1990s, British Hong Kong would be near the top of the list for almost precisely the same reasons.
    Yes. I was going to say something similar about the figures for HongKongers likely looking very different for those who manage to escape to Britain.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    TimT said:

    Incredible. 73% of all anti-vaxxer disinformation can be traced back to one of 12 individuals. Not one of them is banned on all of Facebook, Twitter and Instagram

    https://mashable.com/article/disinformation-dozen-study-anti-vaxxers/

    Usually I'm in favour of free speech but these people ought to be brought to justice for the damage they've caused.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    Nigelb said:
    I wonder where it won't be manufactured.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Unloading the ship might have fun effects in terms of changing the stress on the hull. Ships don't evenly match buoyancy and load along their lengths to start with. This ship is now not floating at the ends.... You could very easily break her back...

    Then you really have fun...
    There are no good or easy options here. And all carry stupidly large amounts of risk.
    They need to prey hard that a dozen tugs can somehow pull her free at the next high tide on Monday. Otherwise it’s at best weeks of disruption.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So if a variant has an R0 of 3 or above we'll still need NPIs?
    Not affordable. Just learn to live with it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    The UK is approximately 13% of the EU+UK population so any day that the UK has a higher percentage of the % of vaccines on that update in excess of 13% means the UK is doing more than its share. At 33.4% of the total to date we are about 2.5x the EU average.

    Whilst impressive this is considerably lower than we were a month ago. The EU is slowly increasing its rate of vaccination but has a long way to go. Anyone sane of course wishes them every speed, provided it is not at our cost.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,461

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    You're misreading (I did the same). The vaccine percentage axis is efficacy, not population coverage
    It is population coverage - the assumed efficacy is 75%.
    Ah, fair enough, ta - I misread my own misreading

    In that case I find the chart quite encouraging
    It is believed that COVID19 has a "natural R" in the 4-5 range.....
    Well in that case your stupid chart is a pile of old Wiltshire pants.

    Israel has vaxxed her way to an R of 0.55, while opening her economy.
    The haven't relaxed all restrictions - and some quite mild ones drop R a fair bit.
    1. This is all based on models and assumptions, though, isn't it? The accuracy of which is patchy at best.

    2. That's the point, isn't it - most restrictions do almost nothing and we could abandon them with almost no impact (e.g. Reopen restaurants). If we have to keep nightclubs closed until the bitter end I can see why - but mist elements of lockdown achieve little.
    It isn't always the case that restrictions reduce the R rate. Some ill thought out ones can potentially increase it.

    The reopening of golf courses on 29th March should by itself reduce the R rate by allowing people to exercise at least 150 yards away from anyone but their playing partners, rather than exercising with the multitudes of other walkers, joggers, dog walkers and cyclists milling around in the local town park. For 3 months you were allowed to go for a walk outside with one other person, provided it didn't involve hitting a golf ball while doing so.

    Ditto for outdoor tennis. What exactly was wrong with singles tennis outdoors?
    It is still banned even for members of the same household!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    kle4 said:

    A slightly late "Thank you" to Priti Patel, who yesterday gave Labour a wonderful opportunity to demonstrate that the party consists of a bunch of out of touch North London hand-wringers with no connection to working class voters in the Red Wall.

    I've got a very middle-class friend who posted about another very middle-class friend today who's active in XR on Facebook today.

    All about how she's fighting the good fight, and the Government are doing "nothing".

    I want to point out that (a) the Government isn't doing nothing, and are moving as fast as they can to NetZero by 2050, (b) yes, they could do even more, and if she has suggestions for faster improvements - e.g. better subsidies for ground/air-source heat pumps, or solar panels - then she'd have more impact in writing to her MP, (c) the XR target of NetZero by 2025 is totally unrealistic as the infrastructure can't be delivered that fast and it would destroy the economy and millions of jobs, (d) her "tactics" have alienated hundreds of thousands of ordinary working people who try and get to work every day to earn a crust and turned them off XR, and, (e) the solution to climate change is global over China, India and the USA, with new technological solutions like Nuclear Fusion and renewables, and not hippie virtue-signalling at everyone else's expense in Britain, but.. it's too emotional a subject for her, so I've written nothing and decided to fume on here instead.

    Needless to say she works in London and votes Labour.
    Their passion and effort have helped cause more action than there otherwise would be, I expect. But there comes a point where if you treat everything that has been done or is being done as 'nothing' you undermine your own efforts.

    There's a range from people who think about environmental issues all day every day whilst composting their own poop and decrying the stain of humanity on mother Gaia, to those who deny the need to do anything and also like to club baby seals for fun to boot.

    Plenty of people in that range are persuadable to major action, but if the extreme activists treat pretty impressive accomplishments and plans as doing nothing, well, it brings people down.

    Why bother to do anything if even those major things are treated like nothing?
    Exactly. My message to her would be to do regular protests (marches), write letters, and contribute to/or join-in with environmental causes. That's what I'm trying to do with my work to get into Nuclear Fusion with my firm.

    That's real activism (and, goodness, that word alone is a turn-off): it's about smart action to get the results you want; it isn't about making yourself feel better for the adoration of your peer group.
    Same with synthetic biology, opposed by many activists. If we can produce way more food on less land, we can protect more habitat and reduce extinctions. To boot, we can create, test and deliver vaccines within a year. That is real action.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.

    The real concern is that she breaks her back during the recovery, given she’s grounded at bow and stern, but not in the middle.

    One other alternative would be to dam the canal either side of her, and pump in enough water to float her. Again, that will take weeks.
    Gross tonnage is a measure of internal volume, not what the vessel weighs.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626
    TimT said:

    kle4 said:

    A slightly late "Thank you" to Priti Patel, who yesterday gave Labour a wonderful opportunity to demonstrate that the party consists of a bunch of out of touch North London hand-wringers with no connection to working class voters in the Red Wall.

    I've got a very middle-class friend who posted about another very middle-class friend today who's active in XR on Facebook today.

    All about how she's fighting the good fight, and the Government are doing "nothing".

    I want to point out that (a) the Government isn't doing nothing, and are moving as fast as they can to NetZero by 2050, (b) yes, they could do even more, and if she has suggestions for faster improvements - e.g. better subsidies for ground/air-source heat pumps, or solar panels - then she'd have more impact in writing to her MP, (c) the XR target of NetZero by 2025 is totally unrealistic as the infrastructure can't be delivered that fast and it would destroy the economy and millions of jobs, (d) her "tactics" have alienated hundreds of thousands of ordinary working people who try and get to work every day to earn a crust and turned them off XR, and, (e) the solution to climate change is global over China, India and the USA, with new technological solutions like Nuclear Fusion and renewables, and not hippie virtue-signalling at everyone else's expense in Britain, but.. it's too emotional a subject for her, so I've written nothing and decided to fume on here instead.

    Needless to say she works in London and votes Labour.
    Their passion and effort have helped cause more action than there otherwise would be, I expect. But there comes a point where if you treat everything that has been done or is being done as 'nothing' you undermine your own efforts.

    There's a range from people who think about environmental issues all day every day whilst composting their own poop and decrying the stain of humanity on mother Gaia, to those who deny the need to do anything and also like to club baby seals for fun to boot.

    Plenty of people in that range are persuadable to major action, but if the extreme activists treat pretty impressive accomplishments and plans as doing nothing, well, it brings people down.

    Why bother to do anything if even those major things are treated like nothing?
    Exactly. My message to her would be to do regular protests (marches), write letters, and contribute to/or join-in with environmental causes. That's what I'm trying to do with my work to get into Nuclear Fusion with my firm.

    That's real activism (and, goodness, that word alone is a turn-off): it's about smart action to get the results you want; it isn't about making yourself feel better for the adoration of your peer group.
    Same with synthetic biology, opposed by many activists. If we can produce way more food on less land, we can protect more habitat and reduce extinctions. To boot, we can create, test and deliver vaccines within a year. That is real action.
    If Germany gets a Green dominated government, then there will be massive restrictions added on bio-tech. The German Greens in particular have a thing about anything to do with "genetic"....
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.

    The real concern is that she breaks her back during the recovery, given she’s grounded at bow and stern, but not in the middle.

    One other alternative would be to dam the canal either side of her, and pump in enough water to float her. Again, that will take weeks.
    Gross tonnage is a measure of internal volume, not what the vessel weighs.
    And I just learned that deadweight is the amount of cargo, fuel etc... the ship can carry at a given draught. I had always assumed it was the ship's weight.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,589
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Presumably there is a reinsurer in Bermuda that is wincing right now?
    What's the toll revenue from Panama ?
    $30 odd million a day ?

    As for more remote consequential loss....
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Presumably there is a reinsurer in Bermuda that is wincing right now?
    It's a liability claim (I assume), so will go into one of the P&I clubs, who will retain the first $10m of the loss.
    Above that, it goes into the Pool Reinsurance arrangement of the International Group, and gets shared across the London/Lloyd's/Bermuda reinsurance markets. Certainly it's not one reinsurer that is on the hook.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,100

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Unloading the ship might have fun effects in terms of changing the stress on the hull. Ships don't evenly match buoyancy and load along their lengths to start with. This ship is now not floating at the ends.... You could very easily break her back...

    Then you really have fun...
    There are no good or easy options here. And all carry stupidly large amounts of risk.
    Trident is overdue a test.
    We could dig the Egyptians a whole new canal in about 5 minutes. The environmental impact statement might upset the anti-fracking types a tad, though....

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/51081501_Radiological_investigations_at_the_Taiga_nuclear_explosion_site_Site_description_and_in_situ_measurements
    Yes, double the width and remove the risk of the problem in future too. Problem solved.
    Invest, rather, in the Trans-Negev canal company of Eilat.

    If you have $70bn or so.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,461
    Will Boris' solution be a tunnel or a bridge?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    TimT said:

    kle4 said:

    A slightly late "Thank you" to Priti Patel, who yesterday gave Labour a wonderful opportunity to demonstrate that the party consists of a bunch of out of touch North London hand-wringers with no connection to working class voters in the Red Wall.

    I've got a very middle-class friend who posted about another very middle-class friend today who's active in XR on Facebook today.

    All about how she's fighting the good fight, and the Government are doing "nothing".

    I want to point out that (a) the Government isn't doing nothing, and are moving as fast as they can to NetZero by 2050, (b) yes, they could do even more, and if she has suggestions for faster improvements - e.g. better subsidies for ground/air-source heat pumps, or solar panels - then she'd have more impact in writing to her MP, (c) the XR target of NetZero by 2025 is totally unrealistic as the infrastructure can't be delivered that fast and it would destroy the economy and millions of jobs, (d) her "tactics" have alienated hundreds of thousands of ordinary working people who try and get to work every day to earn a crust and turned them off XR, and, (e) the solution to climate change is global over China, India and the USA, with new technological solutions like Nuclear Fusion and renewables, and not hippie virtue-signalling at everyone else's expense in Britain, but.. it's too emotional a subject for her, so I've written nothing and decided to fume on here instead.

    Needless to say she works in London and votes Labour.
    Their passion and effort have helped cause more action than there otherwise would be, I expect. But there comes a point where if you treat everything that has been done or is being done as 'nothing' you undermine your own efforts.

    There's a range from people who think about environmental issues all day every day whilst composting their own poop and decrying the stain of humanity on mother Gaia, to those who deny the need to do anything and also like to club baby seals for fun to boot.

    Plenty of people in that range are persuadable to major action, but if the extreme activists treat pretty impressive accomplishments and plans as doing nothing, well, it brings people down.

    Why bother to do anything if even those major things are treated like nothing?
    Exactly. My message to her would be to do regular protests (marches), write letters, and contribute to/or join-in with environmental causes. That's what I'm trying to do with my work to get into Nuclear Fusion with my firm.

    That's real activism (and, goodness, that word alone is a turn-off): it's about smart action to get the results you want; it isn't about making yourself feel better for the adoration of your peer group.
    Same with synthetic biology, opposed by many activists. If we can produce way more food on less land, we can protect more habitat and reduce extinctions. To boot, we can create, test and deliver vaccines within a year. That is real action.
    If Germany gets a Green dominated government, then there will be massive restrictions added on bio-tech. The German Greens in particular have a thing about anything to do with "genetic"....
    Indeed. I once asked a key German government official (since retired) what it would take for Germany to accept GMOs. His response was 'the death of the current generations'.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.

    The real concern is that she breaks her back during the recovery, given she’s grounded at bow and stern, but not in the middle.

    One other alternative would be to dam the canal either side of her, and pump in enough water to float her. Again, that will take weeks.
    Gross tonnage is a measure of internal volume, not what the vessel weighs.
    And I just learned that deadweight is the amount of cargo, fuel etc... the ship can carry at a given draught. I had always assumed it was the ship's weight.
    Ship's weight is displacement, usually only given for naval vessels.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Well, we're already doing a historical re-enactment of 1918-20, so why not throw in 1956 as well?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    Sandpit said:

    Still more than a third of all vaccines from the 28 countries, have gone to the UK.

    If we stay at 500k per day, there’s 140 days until everyone’s been done twice. First week in August, just in time to start on the schoolkids.

    Ignores the single shot vaccine... It will be quicker.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Floater said:
    Flattered massively by the huge increase in testing, and false-positives, amongst school children.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Mortimer said:

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So if a variant has an R0 of 3 or above we'll still need NPIs?
    Not affordable. Just learn to live with it.
    What's an NPI ?

    If infection continues to grow even though we're all vaccinated then by default r(t) is over 1. The newly infected people then have more immunity than previously (Whether unvaxed or vaxed) so r(t) drops as a result of it's own infections. Eventually it goes away or becomes seasonal low level endemic, like the flu. But it's not a pandemic any more.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Floater said:
    I still struggle to understand why anyone gives a flying f**k about what Owen Jones is wittering on about.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184

    Sandpit said:

    Still more than a third of all vaccines from the 28 countries, have gone to the UK.

    If we stay at 500k per day, there’s 140 days until everyone’s been done twice. First week in August, just in time to start on the schoolkids.

    Ignores the single shot vaccine... It will be quicker.
    When does that come in?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    There have been some mentions of the idea of herd immunity.

    So, if we assume that the vaccine is 75% effective at preventing infection and assume that the effect of the vaccine is simple* we can construct the following table

    image

    *the vaccine effect is simply a multiple on the original R number.

    So, if the base "R" is 3 this demonstrates why you need 80%+ population coverage to permanently put a lid on it? Assuming no dodging variants?

    Also, right now R would pop up back to 1.88 post lockdown free-for-all therefore we need to get to 80%+ by the middle of June??
    1.88? Far too precise a number. Also depends on where you are. In Wiltshire it wouldn't be that high, maybe in a highly urbanised area it would be higher.
  • Will Boris' solution be a tunnel or a bridge?
    The ship is effectively a bridge already.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    steve baker giving both barrels to vaccine cert for pubs on r4. absolutely opposed and thinks many tories will be same.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,922
    Nigelb said:

    This ought to appeal to at least 60% of PB ?

    https://twitter.com/blzzrd/status/1361302239286018048

    Didn’t the old Hull City stadium, Boothferry Park, have a train station by its side?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    TimT said:

    Floater said:
    I still struggle to understand why anyone gives a flying f**k about what Owen Jones is wittering on about.
    I used to get miffed by the constant media exposure of the one-man Marxist boy-band, but now I'm convinced that he's a net electoral asset to the non-insane side of the political spectrum. Keep on spreading the good word, Owen!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,626
    Cookie said:

    Sandpit said:

    Still more than a third of all vaccines from the 28 countries, have gone to the UK.

    If we stay at 500k per day, there’s 140 days until everyone’s been done twice. First week in August, just in time to start on the schoolkids.

    Ignores the single shot vaccine... It will be quicker.
    When does that come in?
    The Double Johnson? Quite soon :-)
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Presumably there is a reinsurer in Bermuda that is wincing right now?
    They'll be wincing more if it breaks up. Right now it's a BI claim, which will be spread around a number of insurers. If it turns into a Hull claim it's going to shoot straight into someone's XS layer.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,100
    edited March 2021
    On the Suez Canal.

    Is the Natural Law Party still out there to fly this ship? They solved the war in Yugoslavia.

    (The presenter looks just like @Cookie .

    https://youtu.be/U5JaviJfwzs?t=83
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Animal_pb said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Presumably there is a reinsurer in Bermuda that is wincing right now?
    They'll be wincing more if it breaks up. Right now it's a BI claim, which will be spread around a number of insurers. If it turns into a Hull claim it's going to shoot straight into someone's XS layer.
    What happens if the Hull claim is due to work done to resolve the issue?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    IshmaelZ said:

    TimT said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.

    The real concern is that she breaks her back during the recovery, given she’s grounded at bow and stern, but not in the middle.

    One other alternative would be to dam the canal either side of her, and pump in enough water to float her. Again, that will take weeks.
    Gross tonnage is a measure of internal volume, not what the vessel weighs.
    And I just learned that deadweight is the amount of cargo, fuel etc... the ship can carry at a given draught. I had always assumed it was the ship's weight.
    Ship's weight is displacement, usually only given for naval vessels.
    Normal displacement = without ammo, fuel, etc.
    Full load displacement = with ammo, fuel, etc.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Animal_pb said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Presumably there is a reinsurer in Bermuda that is wincing right now?
    They'll be wincing more if it breaks up. Right now it's a BI claim, which will be spread around a number of insurers. If it turns into a Hull claim it's going to shoot straight into someone's XS layer.
    Hull and machinery policies are "spread around a number of insurers," and the liability cover will be with one of the P&I clubs.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    Nigelb said:

    This ought to appeal to at least 60% of PB ?

    https://twitter.com/blzzrd/status/1361302239286018048

    Steam trains cause pollution!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Nigelb said:

    This ought to appeal to at least 60% of PB ?

    https://twitter.com/blzzrd/status/1361302239286018048

    Helps with the train...ing!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,461

    Will Boris' solution be a tunnel or a bridge?
    The ship is effectively a bridge already.
    Maybe he will suggest putting some plants and trees on it then.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited March 2021
    eek said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Presumably there is a reinsurer in Bermuda that is wincing right now?
    They'll be wincing more if it breaks up. Right now it's a BI claim, which will be spread around a number of insurers. If it turns into a Hull claim it's going to shoot straight into someone's XS layer.
    What happens if the Hull claim is due to work done to resolve the issue?
    Hull insurers are liable for salvage costs. Edit: as are cargo insurers, in proportion to the relative value of what they insure.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    Thinking of the last couple of weeks, when we get to excess vaccines being delivered (and this will be somewhat vaccine type dependent), we should look to distribute in the following order in my opinion:

    1. Meet obligations to COVAX as generously as we can.
    2. Directly to the Republic of Ireland
    3. Give UK plants, e.g. AZ, some leeway to meet unfulfilled exports due to, for e.g. EU export restrictions, before demanding our own next deliveries.
    4. Help out the EU if they still need it, which is in our self-interest after all.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    May be we could team up with the French and Israelis?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    "New Alan Turing £50 note design is revealed"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56503741
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    IshmaelZ said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Presumably there is a reinsurer in Bermuda that is wincing right now?
    They'll be wincing more if it breaks up. Right now it's a BI claim, which will be spread around a number of insurers. If it turns into a Hull claim it's going to shoot straight into someone's XS layer.
    Hull and machinery policies are "spread around a number of insurers," and the liability cover will be with one of the P&I clubs.
    I was simplifying. Point is, if this thing breaks up we're looking at Costa Concordia mk II.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Pro_Rata said:

    Thinking of the last couple of weeks, when we get to excess vaccines being delivered (and this will be somewhat vaccine type dependent), we should look to distribute in the following order in my opinion:

    1. Meet obligations to COVAX as generously as we can.
    2. Directly to the Republic of Ireland
    3. Give UK plants, e.g. AZ, some leeway to meet unfulfilled exports due to, for e.g. EU export restrictions, before demanding our own next deliveries.
    4. Help out the EU if they still need it, which is in our self-interest after all.

    I would like to see some prioritization of Commonwealth countries in there.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,100
    Charles said:

    May be we could team up with the French and Israelis?
    This would be better for the Dutch to do, surely? They have the tugs.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,858

    TimT said:

    Floater said:
    I still struggle to understand why anyone gives a flying f**k about what Owen Jones is wittering on about.
    I used to get miffed by the constant media exposure of the one-man Marxist boy-band, but now I'm convinced that he's a net electoral asset to the non-insane side of the political spectrum. Keep on spreading the good word, Owen!
    Which reminds me. I haven't served him up on here for a while -
    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1375064778004180993
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,157

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Unloading the ship might have fun effects in terms of changing the stress on the hull. Ships don't evenly match buoyancy and load along their lengths to start with. This ship is now not floating at the ends.... You could very easily break her back...

    Then you really have fun...
    That really is huge. I've been on the USS Nimitz (one of the American nuclear-powered supercarriers) and that is 330m long - big enough for rows and rows of huge jet warplanes to be ranked along the deck. Add 20% to it and stack it with containers ...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    MattW said:

    On the Suez Canal.

    Is the Natural Law Party still out there to fly this ship? They solved the war in Yugoslavia.

    (The presenter looks just like @Cookie .

    https://youtu.be/U5JaviJfwzs?t=83

    Ha ha - actually, my first thought was 'how have they got Nigel Mansell to present this?'
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,944
    Andy_JS said:

    "New Alan Turing £50 note design is revealed"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56503741

    Most people never see £50 notes. Perhaps an entrepreneur will knock out framed fifties to the gay tech nerd war historian crossover demographic. I'd buy one.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MattW said:

    Charles said:

    May be we could team up with the French and Israelis?
    This would be better for the Dutch to do, surely? They have the tugs.
    Think about the last joint UK/French/Israeli salvage operation in the region...
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,785
    TimT said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Thinking of the last couple of weeks, when we get to excess vaccines being delivered (and this will be somewhat vaccine type dependent), we should look to distribute in the following order in my opinion:

    1. Meet obligations to COVAX as generously as we can.
    2. Directly to the Republic of Ireland
    3. Give UK plants, e.g. AZ, some leeway to meet unfulfilled exports due to, for e.g. EU export restrictions, before demanding our own next deliveries.
    4. Help out the EU if they still need it, which is in our self-interest after all.

    I would like to see some prioritization of Commonwealth countries in there.
    Number 3 may cover that to some extent.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited March 2021
    Carnyx said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Unloading the ship might have fun effects in terms of changing the stress on the hull. Ships don't evenly match buoyancy and load along their lengths to start with. This ship is now not floating at the ends.... You could very easily break her back...

    Then you really have fun...
    That really is huge. I've been on the USS Nimitz (one of the American nuclear-powered supercarriers) and that is 330m long - big enough for rows and rows of huge jet warplanes to be ranked along the deck. Add 20% to it and stack it with containers ...
    Containerships are things of beauty and wonder. The amount they have increased in size/carrying capacity these past years is extraordinary. Not yet but perhaps at some point would like to do a cruise on one. Not via Suez, that said for the moment.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited March 2021
    Next door to Hartlepool:

    "Blow for Tories as councillors resign to sit as independents 'with integrity and not with duplicity'

    Long-serving Redcar and Cleveland Council Tory group leader Philip Thomson and six other former Tory councillors have formed a new independent group"

    https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/blow-tories-councillors-resign-sit-20252998?ref=BNTMedia&utm_medium=facebook
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,944
    Andy_JS said:

    "New Alan Turing £50 note design is revealed"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56503741

    A slightly mean-spirited article lamenting the LGBTQ+ genius was a white bloke.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "New Alan Turing £50 note design is revealed"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56503741

    Most people never see £50 notes. Perhaps an entrepreneur will knock out framed fifties to the gay tech nerd war historian crossover demographic. I'd buy one.
    I'm getting a framed one not only because I'm a war and tech nerd but I did tip Turing to be the face of the £50 note at 33/1.

    #LegendaryModestyKlaxon
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    kinabalu said:

    TimT said:

    Floater said:
    I still struggle to understand why anyone gives a flying f**k about what Owen Jones is wittering on about.
    I used to get miffed by the constant media exposure of the one-man Marxist boy-band, but now I'm convinced that he's a net electoral asset to the non-insane side of the political spectrum. Keep on spreading the good word, Owen!
    Which reminds me. I haven't served him up on here for a while -
    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1375064778004180993
    Nonsense. Whittome was rightly criticised for failing to condemn violence among the protesters, and no-one has denied that the protests were in fact violent - just the extent.
  • kle4 said:

    A slightly late "Thank you" to Priti Patel, who yesterday gave Labour a wonderful opportunity to demonstrate that the party consists of a bunch of out of touch North London hand-wringers with no connection to working class voters in the Red Wall.

    I've got a very middle-class friend who posted about another very middle-class friend today who's active in XR on Facebook today.

    All about how she's fighting the good fight, and the Government are doing "nothing".

    I want to point out that (a) the Government isn't doing nothing, and are moving as fast as they can to NetZero by 2050, (b) yes, they could do even more, and if she has suggestions for faster improvements - e.g. better subsidies for ground/air-source heat pumps, or solar panels - then she'd have more impact in writing to her MP, (c) the XR target of NetZero by 2025 is totally unrealistic as the infrastructure can't be delivered that fast and it would destroy the economy and millions of jobs, (d) her "tactics" have alienated hundreds of thousands of ordinary working people who try and get to work every day to earn a crust and turned them off XR, and, (e) the solution to climate change is global over China, India and the USA, with new technological solutions like Nuclear Fusion and renewables, and not hippie virtue-signalling at everyone else's expense in Britain, but.. it's too emotional a subject for her, so I've written nothing and decided to fume on here instead.

    Needless to say she works in London and votes Labour.
    Their passion and effort have helped cause more action than there otherwise would be, I expect. But there comes a point where if you treat everything that has been done or is being done as 'nothing' you undermine your own efforts.

    There's a range from people who think about environmental issues all day every day whilst composting their own poop and decrying the stain of humanity on mother Gaia, to those who deny the need to do anything and also like to club baby seals for fun to boot.

    Plenty of people in that range are persuadable to major action, but if the extreme activists treat pretty impressive accomplishments and plans as doing nothing, well, it brings people down.

    Why bother to do anything if even those major things are treated like nothing?
    Exactly. My message to her would be to do regular protests (marches), write letters, and contribute to/or join-in with environmental causes. That's what I'm trying to do with my work to get into Nuclear Fusion with my firm.

    That's real activism (and, goodness, that word alone is a turn-off): it's about smart action to get the results you want; it isn't about making yourself feel better for the adoration of your peer group.
    There is a certain middle class fragile mind that graduates to these kind of things. If it wasnt the destruction of their world (as they see it), it owuld be something else. They worry themselves to the point of mental illness and depression. Nobody anywhere can have an alternative view on how to improve things, and like you say aything that isnt XR demands for carbon neutral by 2025 is 'greenwashing'.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Wonder if any ships have decided to head on the long trip round the cape ?
  • Andy_JS said:

    Next door to Hartlepool:

    "Blow for Tories as councillors resign to sit as independents 'with integrity and not with duplicity'

    Long-serving Redcar and Cleveland Council Tory group leader Philip Thomson and six other former Tory councillors have formed a new independent group"

    https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/blow-tories-councillors-resign-sit-20252998?ref=BNTMedia&utm_medium=facebook

    "the Conservative councillors are thought to have been unhappy with some of the demands being placed on them by senior association figures and felt they were not being supported."

    Put through translator: Been told to get out to canvass and leaflet outside the perimeters of your safe tory ward.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184

    Nigelb said:

    This ought to appeal to at least 60% of PB ?

    https://twitter.com/blzzrd/status/1361302239286018048

    Steam trains cause pollution!
    And also, greatness.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,157

    Nigelb said:

    This ought to appeal to at least 60% of PB ?

    https://twitter.com/blzzrd/status/1361302239286018048

    Steam trains cause pollution!
    So do diesels and some electrics (the last, of course, being steam trains themselves, only with the transmission being rather longer than the boiler to piston to con rod, and depending whether they use leccy from renewable sources or not).
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    IshmaelZ said:

    Animal_pb said:

    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Reports Suez blockage may last another week

    Quite possibly longer - I suspect even with all the cargo and ballast water removed it still won't float.

    This may sound like a dumb question but if it won't float, won't it be possible to just blow it up and remove the fragments?
    It would be quicker and cheaper to build a new canal around her, than to try and dismantle her on site. They’ll avoid that option like a novel coronavirus.

    Assuming she still doesn’t float with no fuel and no cargo, they’ll have to shore her up underwater and dig her out with dredgers, it will take weeks if not months.

    When you say ‘fragments’, she’s 400m long, 59m wide and weighs 220,000,000kg. When not run aground, she’s one of the largest ships afloat.
    I don't think a diversion works either though. Given the fact these ships are now 400m long the new canal would need to be a few miles in length - sharp turns just aren't possible.
    I really do need to speak to my dad about this - he was a naval architect but since retirement has focussed more on cruise ship life raft capacity and automation than ship size.

    Being on international committees is a rather strange retirement hobby but it means that others don't waste time doing it.
    Cool, sounds like a fun retirement project.

    Yes, a diversionary channel would have to be for much smaller vessels, rather than the full canal width, unless they have a couple of years to spare.

    Here's what the canal cross section looks like, the incident ship has a draught of 16m and from photos is clearly well aground at the bow end.
    https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber/status/1374821546225762308
    https://twitter.com/jsrailton/status/1374480234632736769

    The more I look, the more I don't think she floats at all, no matter how much weight they take out. They either need to dredge the bank or dam the canal.
    Presumably there is a reinsurer in Bermuda that is wincing right now?
    They'll be wincing more if it breaks up. Right now it's a BI claim, which will be spread around a number of insurers. If it turns into a Hull claim it's going to shoot straight into someone's XS layer.
    Hull and machinery policies are "spread around a number of insurers," and the liability cover will be with one of the P&I clubs.
    Looks as though UK P&I have the liability. The Hull & Cargo elements look to have been insured in the Japanese market, although probably reinsured into some combination of London, Europe and Bermuda.

    My guess at this point would be that almost all the loss will end up in the International Group Pool.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    Now is the time for HYUFD to shine with his knowledge of Middle Eastern shipping routes and alternatives via the Cape.
  • alednamalednam Posts: 185
    1. It was right that the government gambled taxpayers’ money, and it’s great that it’s paid off. Wonderful too that our state-run National Health Service has done such a good job in delivering the vaccine into people’s arms.
    2. What’s less good is that our test and trace system (misnamed “NHS Test and Trace”) cost £34 billion. This is the system which the Public Accounts Committee Chair has said made “no measurable difference". It's the system for which private consultants were paid up to £6,250 per day even while Serco raked in profits. Such is capitalism.
    Given (1) and (2), it's no wonder that Johnson saw that he must withdraw his remark that “capitalism” and “greed” explain the United Kingdom’s successful vaccine roll-out. If he'd let it stand, people might have seen that he'd spoken the reverse of the truth even while proclaiming a bit of Tory dogma.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,157
    alednam said:

    1. It was right that the government gambled taxpayers’ money, and it’s great that it’s paid off. Wonderful too that our state-run National Health Service has done such a good job in delivering the vaccine into people’s arms.
    2. What’s less good is that our test and trace system (misnamed “NHS Test and Trace”) cost £34 billion. This is the system which the Public Accounts Committee Chair has said made “no measurable difference". It's the system for which private consultants were paid up to £6,250 per day even while Serco raked in profits. Such is capitalism.
    Given (1) and (2), it's no wonder that Johnson saw that he must withdraw his remark that “capitalism” and “greed” explain the United Kingdom’s successful vaccine roll-out. If he'd let it stand, people might have seen that he'd spoken the reverse of the truth even while proclaiming a bit of Tory dogma.

    Rings a bell - and I find it's not only a Gordon Gekko saying but positively and gleefully highlighted as such by a certain Mr Johnson.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/nov/27/boris-johnson-thatcher-greed-good
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Andy_JS said:
    He's still fine, though. Vaccination certificates would be proving he's had a vaccine, not who he is. Like being asked to produce a driving license just proves you have the right to drive a vehicle.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    DougSeal said:

    Now is the time for HYUFD to shine with his knowledge of Middle Eastern shipping routes and alternatives via the Cape.

    Commonly known as the 'hot broth alternative route'
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    alednam said:

    1. It was right that the government gambled taxpayers’ money, and it’s great that it’s paid off. Wonderful too that our state-run National Health Service has done such a good job in delivering the vaccine into people’s arms.
    2. What’s less good is that our test and trace system (misnamed “NHS Test and Trace”) cost £34 billion. This is the system which the Public Accounts Committee Chair has said made “no measurable difference". It's the system for which private consultants were paid up to £6,250 per day even while Serco raked in profits. Such is capitalism.
    Given (1) and (2), it's no wonder that Johnson saw that he must withdraw his remark that “capitalism” and “greed” explain the United Kingdom’s successful vaccine roll-out. If he'd let it stand, people might have seen that he'd spoken the reverse of the truth even while proclaiming a bit of Tory dogma.

    I refer you to this https://fullfact.org/health/test-trace-march-2021/ the £34 billion is the budget for two years of mass testing plus tracing. A verdict on the total programme must surely lie in the future.
This discussion has been closed.