Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.
Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)
No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.
Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.
In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.
The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
Max, do you know how much vax the AZ labs in the UK can produce? Their production is fine, they say. So we will still have that supply, uninterrupted
From what I understand around 10-12m per month right now but remember that doses we expect in April were actually produced in January or February at some point and are going through the fill and finish process now and then will be certified before being released for dispatch to be used in April.
It's not so much a production issue for the active ingredient as it is everything else to do with it, glassware, fill and finish, bottle caps, all of this is in huge demand globally and it's led to shortages. That's what all of the vaccine makers are up against. Honestly it's a miracle we've done as many vaccinations as we have in this country. Until the VTF the UK was a non-entity for vaccines.
Interesting ta.
This Guardian story on the slowdown has one hopeful element, tho it is generally negative
"Some vaccinations for people under 50 could potentially still go ahead from mid-April, when the UK is also expecting to start receiving supplies of the Moderna vaccine, subject to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approval process."
Indeed, I'm honestly completely relaxed about the situation. These kinds of production issues were bound to happen, that they're happening when we're through the most important part of the scheme that allows us to unlockdown is a great. Imagine if this slowdown had hit us in February rather than April, we'd have missed all of the JCVI targets, groups 1-4 would still be ongoing and we'd be looking at beginning unlockdown in May or June rather than April. My main goals are to be able to meet my friends, go for a drink, go to a restaurant and so on. Whether or not I've personally been vaccinated is irrelevant for these goals.
When we take into account Moderna and Novavax arriving in April there is literally no need for this doom and gloom, the situation for under 50s remains unchanged.
And if Moderna kicks in that quick, the terrible slowdown will only be for two weeks, end March to mid April.
Doomsday averted
However I can forgive anyone for lapsing into gloom and despair. We’ve all basically been in jail - an open prison - FOR A YEAR. For that same year we have seen promises offered then snatched away, lockdowns ending only to resume, viruses beaten only for new variants to confound us. And all of this played to a soundtrack of death, suffering, chaos, impoverishment and disease.
It’s been the worst year for humanity since the Second World War, and it now stretches into a 2nd year.
Feeling a bit blue, from time to time, is excusable
Yup, and when Novavax is authorised there is a fairly large initial shipment coming from Czechia and ongoing shipments from the Teeside manufacturing. That's expected in April also, but won't be in any of the figures because it hasn't got approval.
Honestly, this feels like a manufactured panic, perfect timing as well to make it look like our vaccine scheme has also got some issues to the EU even though it hasn't really.
In return for money. How much exactly? Given this lot's spaffing tendencies, the Turks will be rubbing their hands.
This is what I've been advocating since people started crossing the Channel in boats.
It is the best humanitarian thing to do. Crossing the Channel in dinghies is dangerous and only doing this will stop it.
This is also what the Aussies did, so there's good precedent and lessons to follow. Once the Aussies started doing this, the boats dried up quite quickly.
The likes of the Guardian would scream blue murder, but doing this will save lives.
Just pondering a counter-factual. What could have happened if we were still in the EU (i.e. no vote to Leave) but had still decided to build our own vaccine supply chain. Would it be easier or harder for the EU to prevent Pfizer jabs being sent to the UK?
Impossible. The threat would be from the other side with the EU passing some kind of regulation using QMV to ensure any vaccine deliveries within the EU are handed to the EU for equitable distribution. Our scheme within the EU would represent a huge problem, it's a problem for them outside as it makes them look bad. Inside it breaks their "unity and solidarity" which is what the EU needs to keep going from one day to the next.
There is no way we would have held on to our vaccines, or any vaccine advantage, inside the EU
For a start we would have joined the EU Covid solidarity fund, last year, because we would have expected a hefty chunk of help, given our high death rate. Having taken that cash, the idea we could then still ‘hoard’ vaccines is nuts. Of course we would now be pooling them, for the greater EU cause
This is one of the maddest Remainer arguments I have seen. And that is some stiff competition
Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.
Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)
No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.
Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.
In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.
The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
Max, do you know how much vax the AZ labs in the UK can produce? Their production is fine, they say. So we will still have that supply, uninterrupted
From what I understand around 10-12m per month right now but remember that doses we expect in April were actually produced in January or February at some point and are going through the fill and finish process now and then will be certified before being released for dispatch to be used in April.
It's not so much a production issue for the active ingredient as it is everything else to do with it, glassware, fill and finish, bottle caps, all of this is in huge demand globally and it's led to shortages. That's what all of the vaccine makers are up against. Honestly it's a miracle we've done as many vaccinations as we have in this country. Until the VTF the UK was a non-entity for vaccines.
Interesting ta.
This Guardian story on the slowdown has one hopeful element, tho it is generally negative
"Some vaccinations for people under 50 could potentially still go ahead from mid-April, when the UK is also expecting to start receiving supplies of the Moderna vaccine, subject to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approval process."
Indeed, I'm honestly completely relaxed about the situation. These kinds of production issues were bound to happen, that they're happening when we're through the most important part of the scheme that allows us to unlockdown is a great. Imagine if this slowdown had hit us in February rather than April, we'd have missed all of the JCVI targets, groups 1-4 would still be ongoing and we'd be looking at beginning unlockdown in May or June rather than April. My main goals are to be able to meet my friends, go for a drink, go to a restaurant and so on. Whether or not I've personally been vaccinated is irrelevant for these goals.
When we take into account Moderna and Novavax arriving in April there is literally no need for this doom and gloom, the situation for under 50s remains unchanged.
And if Moderna kicks in that quick, the terrible slowdown will only be for two weeks, end March to mid April.
Doomsday averted
However I can forgive anyone for lapsing into gloom and despair. We’ve all basically been in jail - an open prison - FOR A YEAR. For that same year we have seen promises offered then snatched away, lockdowns ending only to resume, viruses beaten only for new variants to confound us. And all of this played to a soundtrack of death, suffering, chaos, impoverishment and disease.
It’s been the worst year for humanity since the Second World War, and it now stretches into a 2nd year.
Feeling a bit blue, from time to time, is excusable
Yup, and when Novavax is authorised there is a fairly large initial shipment coming from Czechia and ongoing shipments from the Teeside manufacturing. That's expected in April also, but won't be in any of the figures because it hasn't got approval.
Honestly, this feels like a manufactured panic, perfect timing as well to make it look like our vaccine scheme has also got some issues to the EU even though it hasn't really.
Assuing the EU don't block them.....
Lol the EU hasn't even bought any of it yet, not sure how they would stop it. Though it might already be in the UK awaiting approval. If I was in the VTF I'd be arranging for whatever is already done to be flown here overnight!
Yes, I just had a look through the Novavax website and it doesn't seem as though there is any EU deal signed. They have signed deals with South Korea, Japan, Canada, Australia, Switzerland and GAVI since the successful preliminary data readout. The EU is still in exploratory talks.
Just pondering a counter-factual. What could have happened if we were still in the EU (i.e. no vote to Leave) but had still decided to build our own vaccine supply chain. Would it be easier or harder for the EU to prevent Pfizer jabs being sent to the UK?
Impossible. The threat would be from the other side with the EU passing some kind of regulation using QMV to ensure any vaccine deliveries within the EU are handed to the EU for equitable distribution. Our scheme within the EU would represent a huge problem, it's a problem for them outside as it makes them look bad. Inside it breaks their "unity and solidarity" which is what the EU needs to keep going from one day to the next.
There is no way we would have held on to our vaccines, or any vaccine advantage, inside the EU
For a start we would have joined the EU Covid solidarity fund, last year, because we would have expected a hefty chunk of help, given our high death rate. Having taken that cash, the idea we could then still ‘hoard’ vaccines is nuts. Of course we would now be pooling them, for the greater EU cause
This is one of the maddest Remainer arguments I have seen. And that is some stiff competition
I was a Leaver. Just wondering what might have happened. Could they have demanded we handed them over? What if we said "No"?
In return for money. How much exactly? Given this lot's spaffing tendencies, the Turks will be rubbing their hands.
This is what I've been advocating since people started crossing the Channel in boats.
It is the best humanitarian thing to do. Crossing the Channel in dinghies is dangerous and only doing this will stop it.
This is also what the Aussies did, so there's good precedent and lessons to follow. Once the Aussies started doing this, the boats dried up quite quickly.
The likes of the Guardian would scream blue murder, but doing this will save lives.
Yes. Although in fairness Australia is a little further.
Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.
Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)
No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.
Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.
In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.
The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
Max, do you know how much vax the AZ labs in the UK can produce? Their production is fine, they say. So we will still have that supply, uninterrupted
From what I understand around 10-12m per month right now but remember that doses we expect in April were actually produced in January or February at some point and are going through the fill and finish process now and then will be certified before being released for dispatch to be used in April.
It's not so much a production issue for the active ingredient as it is everything else to do with it, glassware, fill and finish, bottle caps, all of this is in huge demand globally and it's led to shortages. That's what all of the vaccine makers are up against. Honestly it's a miracle we've done as many vaccinations as we have in this country. Until the VTF the UK was a non-entity for vaccines.
Interesting ta.
This Guardian story on the slowdown has one hopeful element, tho it is generally negative
"Some vaccinations for people under 50 could potentially still go ahead from mid-April, when the UK is also expecting to start receiving supplies of the Moderna vaccine, subject to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approval process."
Indeed, I'm honestly completely relaxed about the situation. These kinds of production issues were bound to happen, that they're happening when we're through the most important part of the scheme that allows us to unlockdown is a great. Imagine if this slowdown had hit us in February rather than April, we'd have missed all of the JCVI targets, groups 1-4 would still be ongoing and we'd be looking at beginning unlockdown in May or June rather than April. My main goals are to be able to meet my friends, go for a drink, go to a restaurant and so on. Whether or not I've personally been vaccinated is irrelevant for these goals.
When we take into account Moderna and Novavax arriving in April there is literally no need for this doom and gloom, the situation for under 50s remains unchanged.
And if Moderna kicks in that quick, the terrible slowdown will only be for two weeks, end March to mid April.
Doomsday averted
However I can forgive anyone for lapsing into gloom and despair. We’ve all basically been in jail - an open prison - FOR A YEAR. For that same year we have seen promises offered then snatched away, lockdowns ending only to resume, viruses beaten only for new variants to confound us. And all of this played to a soundtrack of death, suffering, chaos, impoverishment and disease.
It’s been the worst year for humanity since the Second World War, and it now stretches into a 2nd year.
Feeling a bit blue, from time to time, is excusable
Yup, and when Novavax is authorised there is a fairly large initial shipment coming from Czechia and ongoing shipments from the Teeside manufacturing. That's expected in April also, but won't be in any of the figures because it hasn't got approval.
Honestly, this feels like a manufactured panic, perfect timing as well to make it look like our vaccine scheme has also got some issues to the EU even though it hasn't really.
Assuing the EU don't block them.....
Lol the EU hasn't even bought any of it yet, not sure how they would stop it. Though it might already be in the UK awaiting approval. If I was in the VTF I'd be arranging for whatever is already done to be flown here overnight!
The Stasi might decide that they need to make a visit to ensure all the export paperwork is in order only to find it isn't.....
Sunak beats Johnson but Johnson beats Starmer by more than Sunak does.
Touch of the scissors stone paper there.
I would have thought the main take was Starmer can’t beat the PM or the man most likely to replace him
My strong feeling is that Starmer has a good chance against any Con leader bar Johnson. Unfortunately my equally strong feeling is that Johnson will be there for the next election.
Johnson will fall out of favour at some point. I suspect (like Blair before him) the fall will be dramatic and swift.
I think that is true, but the electorate can stay irrational for a long time.
It took 7 or 8 years before the electorate fell out of love with Tony.
Longer than that. He won 're election in 2005. Was PM in waiting from 1994. I reckon he would have won in 2010 too.
It would likely have still been a hung parliament but Blair would have been more likely to have won enough seats to do a deal with Clegg.
Just pondering a counter-factual. What could have happened if we were still in the EU (i.e. no vote to Leave) but had still decided to build our own vaccine supply chain. Would it be easier or harder for the EU to prevent Pfizer jabs being sent to the UK?
Impossible. The threat would be from the other side with the EU passing some kind of regulation using QMV to ensure any vaccine deliveries within the EU are handed to the EU for equitable distribution. Our scheme within the EU would represent a huge problem, it's a problem for them outside as it makes them look bad. Inside it breaks their "unity and solidarity" which is what the EU needs to keep going from one day to the next.
There is no way we would have held on to our vaccines, or any vaccine advantage, inside the EU
For a start we would have joined the EU Covid solidarity fund, last year, because we would have expected a hefty chunk of help, given our high death rate. Having taken that cash, the idea we could then still ‘hoard’ vaccines is nuts. Of course we would now be pooling them, for the greater EU cause
This is one of the maddest Remainer arguments I have seen. And that is some stiff competition
I was a Leaver. Just wondering what might have happened. Could they have demanded we handed them over? What if we said "No"?
I was wondering who was behind Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice pressure group. From a quick look at some of the organizers, its looks like another (non) Independent SAGE type group.
Maybe it’s because I’ve had other things on my mind, but I don’t even really think about Covid or lockdown anymore. Quite sad I guess
I'd have to agree on this. I don't much either. I don't monitor local news at all any more, and my only thoughts at the moment related to the restrictions are looking at new weightlifting shoes for when the gyms open again.
I was wondering who was behind Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice pressure group. From a quick look at some of the organizers, its looks like another (non) Independent SAGE type group.
Its a great idea,. we can then find out why the the NHS packed all those people back off to nursing homes and why and what the failings of NHS were in helping us to a very large number of deaths. But we wont because no one wants to lift that rock.
We will blame the politicians 100%, not the wonks, or the doctors who advise and devise nor point out that we are a fat nation
It's certainly good to see that our newspapers are reporting the jabs slowdown in a calm and non-hyperbolic way.
Time to crack out the 2019 GE meme....
No matter how bad the last year has been, thank god we've not had Corbyn as PM. I have never felt so nervous as I did that day. I couldn't watch or listen to news. Couldn't even watch here as it got towards 10pm. The only way I could bring myself to follow it was by watching the price of the pound. The relief when it ticked up at 10 o'clock was like nothing I have ever felt before.
Just pondering a counter-factual. What could have happened if we were still in the EU (i.e. no vote to Leave) but had still decided to build our own vaccine supply chain. Would it be easier or harder for the EU to prevent Pfizer jabs being sent to the UK?
Impossible. The threat would be from the other side with the EU passing some kind of regulation using QMV to ensure any vaccine deliveries within the EU are handed to the EU for equitable distribution. Our scheme within the EU would represent a huge problem, it's a problem for them outside as it makes them look bad. Inside it breaks their "unity and solidarity" which is what the EU needs to keep going from one day to the next.
There is no way we would have held on to our vaccines, or any vaccine advantage, inside the EU
For a start we would have joined the EU Covid solidarity fund, last year, because we would have expected a hefty chunk of help, given our high death rate. Having taken that cash, the idea we could then still ‘hoard’ vaccines is nuts. Of course we would now be pooling them, for the greater EU cause
This is one of the maddest Remainer arguments I have seen. And that is some stiff competition
I was a Leaver. Just wondering what might have happened. Could they have demanded we handed them over? What if we said "No"?
I don't mean to undermine your question, but I think the bigger issue is that if the Remain ultras had won in 2019, we wouldn't have said no, we would have surrendered our ability to develop and procure vaccines to the EU on purely ideological grounds - and we would have been completely f**ked.
Sunak beats Johnson but Johnson beats Starmer by more than Sunak does.
Touch of the scissors stone paper there.
I would have thought the main take was Starmer can’t beat the PM or the man most likely to replace him
My strong feeling is that Starmer has a good chance against any Con leader bar Johnson. Unfortunately my equally strong feeling is that Johnson will be there for the next election.
Johnson will fall out of favour at some point. I suspect (like Blair before him) the fall will be dramatic and swift.
I think that is true, but the electorate can stay irrational for a long time.
It took 7 or 8 years before the electorate fell out of love with Tony.
Longer than that. He won 're election in 2005. Was PM in waiting from 1994. I reckon he would have won in 2010 too.
It would likely have still been a hung parliament but Blair would have been more likely to have won enough seats to do a deal with Clegg.
RISHI NOW LEADING BORIS AS “MOST CAPABLE PM” yells the header.
This is statistically illiterate.
Rishi 42 %, Boris 41 % is not a lead.
The error on each measurement exceeds the difference. The same is true of Rishi 39 %, SKS 37 %.
The only significant finding here is the 10 % gap between Boris and SKS. Boris 47 %, SKS 37 %.
It hurts, I know, but Boris has the beating of SKS. This poll confirms what a number of us have been saying.
I don't suppose Labour will listen, as usual.
It does not matter who leads Labour, if this government remains popular in 2024 then Boris will be re elected.
If however it is losing popularity than SKS is sufficiently inoffensive he could win, a UK Hollande or Biden
We are in complete agreement for once. In a sense, what Starmer does or doesn't do is irrelevant. If the Tories can get 40% they win. Of course, he can affect that at the margins, but if that is to reduce them from 44% to 41% then that is precious use.
I was wondering who was behind Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice pressure group. From a quick look at some of the organizers, its looks like another (non) Independent SAGE type group.
Its a great idea,. we can then find out why the the NHS packed all those people back off to nursing homes and why and what the failings of NHS were in helping us to a very large number of deaths. But we wont because no one wants to lift that rock.
We will blame the politicians 100%, not the wonks, or the doctors who advise and devise nor point out that we are a fat nation
With respect. That wouldn't be a "full" one. All those things would be good to know for next time. I know, I know.
Some trouble brewing in @NickPalmer old patch of Broxtowe with Con MP staff member.
Hadn't heard about that but have looked it up. Matt Turpin (the blogger whom the staffer apparently visited at his home) is a well-known local figure who has been doing his Beestonia blog for about 15 years. He writes really well and is independent of party, but he's generally anti-Tory. There is a GDPR question about how the staff member got Matt's private address as well as the obviously undesirable idea of turning up at a journalist's home to demand that he withdraw articles.
Some trouble brewing in @NickPalmer old patch of Broxtowe with Con MP staff member.
Hadn't heard about that but have looked it up. Matt Turpin (the blogger whom the staffer apparently visited at his home) is a well-known local figure who has been doing his Beestonia blog for about 15 years. He writes really well and is independent of party, but he's generally anti-Tory. There is a GDPR question about how the staff member got Matt's private address as well as the obviously undesirable idea of turning up at a journalist's home to demand that he withdraw articles.
Poor old Broxtowe. First Soubry, then this guy. Should have kept the preceding MP I reckon.
RISHI NOW LEADING BORIS AS “MOST CAPABLE PM” yells the header.
This is statistically illiterate.
Rishi 42 %, Boris 41 % is not a lead.
The error on each measurement exceeds the difference. The same is true of Rishi 39 %, SKS 37 %.
The only significant finding here is the 10 % gap between Boris and SKS. Boris 47 %, SKS 37 %.
It hurts, I know, but Boris has the beating of SKS. This poll confirms what a number of us have been saying.
I don't suppose Labour will listen, as usual.
It does not matter who leads Labour, if this government remains popular in 2024 then Boris will be re elected.
If however it is losing popularity than SKS is sufficiently inoffensive he could win, a UK Hollande or Biden
We are in complete agreement for once. In a sense, what Starmer does or doesn't do is irrelevant. If the Tories can get 40% they win. Of course, he can affect that at the margins, but if that is to reduce them from 44% to 41% then that is precious use.
From the outside looking in, it seems to me that Labour traded a firebrand who could pull off a surprise win or get a good hiding for a safe pair of hands who has no chance of winning but won’t get humiliated
RISHI NOW LEADING BORIS AS “MOST CAPABLE PM” yells the header.
This is statistically illiterate.
Rishi 42 %, Boris 41 % is not a lead.
The error on each measurement exceeds the difference. The same is true of Rishi 39 %, SKS 37 %.
The only significant finding here is the 10 % gap between Boris and SKS. Boris 47 %, SKS 37 %.
It hurts, I know, but Boris has the beating of SKS. This poll confirms what a number of us have been saying.
I don't suppose Labour will listen, as usual.
It does not matter who leads Labour, if this government remains popular in 2024 then Boris will be re elected.
If however it is losing popularity than SKS is sufficiently inoffensive he could win, a UK Hollande or Biden
We are in complete agreement for once. In a sense, what Starmer does or doesn't do is irrelevant. If the Tories can get 40% they win. Of course, he can affect that at the margins, but if that is to reduce them from 44% to 41% then that is precious use.
From the outside looking in, it seems to me that Labour traded a firebrand who could pull off a surprise win or get a good hiding for a safe pair of hands who has no chance of winning but won’t get humiliated
The key role at the moment for Sir Keir is to detoxify the party. I think that’s often missed on here, where for obvious betting reasons, people prefer to speculate on his chances of success in 2024, rather than the immediate and ongoing Herculean task of clearing out the Augean stables from the Corbynite hard left.
Regarding his chances in 2024, if we emerge from the pandemic on schedule this year and the economy bounces back strongly, he has no chance. If the economy struggles and the government loses popularity, he has a reasonable outside chance. He’s inoffensive and provides potential safe harbour - but his role in history is to do the dirty work in cleaning up a great party of state.
RISHI NOW LEADING BORIS AS “MOST CAPABLE PM” yells the header.
This is statistically illiterate.
Rishi 42 %, Boris 41 % is not a lead.
The error on each measurement exceeds the difference. The same is true of Rishi 39 %, SKS 37 %.
The only significant finding here is the 10 % gap between Boris and SKS. Boris 47 %, SKS 37 %.
It hurts, I know, but Boris has the beating of SKS. This poll confirms what a number of us have been saying.
I don't suppose Labour will listen, as usual.
It does not matter who leads Labour, if this government remains popular in 2024 then Boris will be re elected.
If however it is losing popularity than SKS is sufficiently inoffensive he could win, a UK Hollande or Biden
Absolutely true.
Back to the old notion that Governments lose elections rather than oppositions winning them. And that is what Starmer will need. It's not guaranteed, but this Government losing support post-pandemic really isn't difficult to foresee.
Absolutely bland and vanilla statement that confirms that Biden is consciously NOT taking sides in the NI Protocol disagreement.
Which suits the UK just fine. Its funny the EU seemed to think Biden was a trump card (pun intended) they could play to force the UK back into line, but now Biden is not interested in whether the UK requires supermarkets to fill in forms for sausage rolls or not. Its simply not a priority for him and he won't get involved and nor will Kamala.
Sunak beats Johnson but Johnson beats Starmer by more than Sunak does.
Touch of the scissors stone paper there.
I would have thought the main take was Starmer can’t beat the PM or the man most likely to replace him
My strong feeling is that Starmer has a good chance against any Con leader bar Johnson. Unfortunately my equally strong feeling is that Johnson will be there for the next election.
Johnson will fall out of favour at some point. I suspect (like Blair before him) the fall will be dramatic and swift.
I think that is true, but the electorate can stay irrational for a long time.
It took 7 or 8 years before the electorate fell out of love with Tony.
Longer than that. He won 're election in 2005. Was PM in waiting from 1994. I reckon he would have won in 2010 too.
It would likely have still been a hung parliament but Blair would have been more likely to have won enough seats to do a deal with Clegg.
Far from clear. Many believe that Labour would have won a bigger majority in 2005 had Gordon Brown then been Leader.
Right now, Brazil has 90,000 daily cases, and 2,700 deaths
Apocalyptic, as bad as us in January, but getting worse?
Not as bad as us in January yet, though it might get there. Brazil has more than 3x our population so that's below 900 daily deaths if you pro rata it. January peaked at nearly double that.
Priti Patel eyes radical new plan to send future illegal Channel migrants OVERSEAS to nations such as Turkey to await processing if they arrive in the UK from countries deemed 'safe'
Quite right, as I have been saying for some time. But if the processing centre is in Turkey (odd place for it I'd argue), why come to the UK at all? Just go to Turkey.
"Former President Donald Trump on Tuesday urged supporters to get their coronavirus vaccines, extolling it as a “great” and “safe” vaccine and noting that many of his followers are reluctant to be inoculated."
"Former President Donald Trump on Tuesday urged supporters to get their coronavirus vaccines, extolling it as a “great” and “safe” vaccine and noting that many of his followers are reluctant to be inoculated."
Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.
Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)
No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.
Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.
In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.
The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
Max, do you know how much vax the AZ labs in the UK can produce? Their production is fine, they say. So we will still have that supply, uninterrupted
From what I understand around 10-12m per month right now but remember that doses we expect in April were actually produced in January or February at some point and are going through the fill and finish process now and then will be certified before being released for dispatch to be used in April.
It's not so much a production issue for the active ingredient as it is everything else to do with it, glassware, fill and finish, bottle caps, all of this is in huge demand globally and it's led to shortages. That's what all of the vaccine makers are up against. Honestly it's a miracle we've done as many vaccinations as we have in this country. Until the VTF the UK was a non-entity for vaccines.
Interesting ta.
This Guardian story on the slowdown has one hopeful element, tho it is generally negative
"Some vaccinations for people under 50 could potentially still go ahead from mid-April, when the UK is also expecting to start receiving supplies of the Moderna vaccine, subject to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approval process."
Indeed, I'm honestly completely relaxed about the situation. These kinds of production issues were bound to happen, that they're happening when we're through the most important part of the scheme that allows us to unlockdown is a great. Imagine if this slowdown had hit us in February rather than April, we'd have missed all of the JCVI targets, groups 1-4 would still be ongoing and we'd be looking at beginning unlockdown in May or June rather than April. My main goals are to be able to meet my friends, go for a drink, go to a restaurant and so on. Whether or not I've personally been vaccinated is irrelevant for these goals.
When we take into account Moderna and Novavax arriving in April there is literally no need for this doom and gloom, the situation for under 50s remains unchanged.
Quite.
The same people panicking now, are the same people who considered getting half the adult population vaccinated by the middle of March inconceivable.
What's astonishing is that we are where we are, with little likelihood the virus will run out of control again, and with massive supplies of vaccines coming in the next few months.
I think some posters on this site are just addicted to bad news.
You’re sitting in sunny California, and you go skiing at weekends. Also your vaccine supply is assured.
That life looks utterly inconceivable from still-wintry London, where everything and everywhere is shut. Now our vaccine supply looks iffy. And our neighbours, in Europe, are having a psychotic breakdown, threatening to steal what vaccines we DO have
We are allowed to be a little more anxious
Ahem - Spain calling with AZN paused for 2 weeks minimum and only offered to under 55s while the general rollout has not done anyone under 80 yet!
To those angry with the government’s opaque communication:
The situation is in some ways not dissimilar to a government refusing to discuss battle minutiae in a war.
When the uk vax programme was trickling along in early Jan, I remember coming here pretty frustrated and saying a competent government would be trying to buy some of India’s production, despite India’s assurances to their own people that they wouldn’t export any. Looks like pretty quietly, this is exactly what the Uk government did. They can’t now loudly disclose that we won’t hit our stretch-on-stretch targets because of a problem in India.
Further the timing of the announcement / leak suspiciously coincides with UvdL’s manic statement yesterday. There may be an element of domestic expectations management that we will be stockpiling Pfizer second doses in anticipation of a potential export ban, but also it’s messaging to the Commission that we’re now struggling with supply just as much as you, with the aim of delaying any blockade.
Finally there’s unspecified talk of a large batch needing to be retested, which I imagine is perfectly normal. You don’t want to talk too loudly about that either so as not to give credibility to the anti vaxxers. Read the comments on the Daily Mail and you’ll see what I mean, they already feel the wind in their sails and need no extra encouragement.
In short, I know it’s hard but cut the government some slack and trust that they’re playing the cards they have as well as they can, in all our interests.
Delaying the winter lockdown caused up to 27,000 extra deaths in England, the Resolution Foundation thinktank has claimed as it accused the government of a “huge mistake” which should be central to any public inquiry into the UK’s handling of the pandemic.
In an assessment of policy over the last year, it said delaying the start of the latest lockdown until January, despite evidence of fast-rising cases before Christmas, led to around a fifth of all fatalities caused by the virus. It said these could have been avoided if restrictions were put in place quickly enough to prevent the death rate rising from early December.
Going timidly and late on lockdowns has been a disaster – causing many thousands of avoidable deaths,” said Mike Brewer, chief economist at the foundation. “Furthermore, delays to restrictions have meant them needing to be tougher and longer-lasting than in other countries, thereby worsening the economic damage.
The report details how when Italy announced a national lockdown on 9 March 2020, Boris Johnson waited two weeks before doing the same in the UK. In September after cases started rising again and the government’s scientific advisers urged a circuit breaker lockdown, the government did not introduce an England-wide lockdown for over five weeks and this winter “the pattern of letting the caseload surge before acting” was repeated.
This year there has been a population explosion of the kashmiri goats in their north Wales headland home after the Covid crisis forced countryside wardens to cancel a planned contraception campaign
To those angry with the government’s opaque communication:
The situation is in some ways not dissimilar to a government refusing to discuss battle minutiae in a war.
When the uk vax programme was trickling along in early Jan, I remember coming here pretty frustrated and saying a competent government would be trying to buy some of India’s production, despite India’s assurances to their own people that they wouldn’t export any. Looks like pretty quietly, this is exactly what the Uk government did. They can’t now loudly disclose that we won’t hit our stretch-on-stretch targets because of a problem in India.
Further the timing of the announcement / leak suspiciously coincides with UvdL’s manic statement yesterday. There may be an element of domestic expectations management that we will be stockpiling Pfizer second doses in anticipation of a potential export ban, but also it’s messaging to the Commission that we’re now struggling with supply just as much as you, with the aim of delaying any blockade.
Finally there’s unspecified talk of a large batch needing to be retested, which I imagine is perfectly normal. You don’t want to talk too loudly about that either so as not to give credibility to the anti vaxxers. Read the comments on the Daily Mail and you’ll see what I mean, they already feel the wind in their sails and need no extra encouragement.
In short, I know it’s hard but cut the government some slack and trust that they’re playing the cards they have as well as they can, in all our interests.
When did India assure its own population it wouldn't export any vaccine? They've exported 58 million doses - more than they've actually used in India
I was wondering who was behind Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice pressure group. From a quick look at some of the organizers, its looks like another (non) Independent SAGE type group.
Its a great idea,. we can then find out why the the NHS packed all those people back off to nursing homes and why and what the failings of NHS were in helping us to a very large number of deaths. But we wont because no one wants to lift that rock.
We will blame the politicians 100%, not the wonks, or the doctors who advise and devise nor point out that we are a fat nation
With respect. That wouldn't be a "full" one. All those things would be good to know for next time. I know, I know.
“The next time” sending the elderly off to nursing homes could be the right decision. That’s the whole problem. It was (highly probably - hospitals were/are very dangerous places for non infected people) the wrong decision this time because of the particular features of Covid 19. Features which were clearly poorly understood at the time, and indeed still don’t be, given there is still a high focus on clean hands and surfaces which at best seems to be a minor effect on virus spread (and not nearly enough on fresh air and ventilation). A different virus, with different characteristics and maximum hospital capacity could be THE defining need.
People talk about the nursing home decisions as officials acting like callous murderers deliberately seeking to kill tens of thousands of people. A balanced enquiry has to look at why those decisions were made, and whether without the benefit of hindsight such decisions might, could or should have been different. There is an enormous risk that the battle against a future pandemic will be lost because eg. We use fighting COVID as the template and discover that we’re fighting some completely different.
I expect the CDU could do quite badly in September. The federal government has shown a total lack of leadership since the pandemic began. Yes, they are hampered a bit by constitutional issues, but that is not an excuse. The latest display of complete incompetence and indecision is only going to make their polling fall further.
Before the pandemic hit the Greens were polling in the low twenties, and sometimes equal to CDU/CSU, so in a way the latest polling is a reversion to that, but I wonder if the CDU's reputation is so damaged that instead of a Union-Green coalition, a Traffic Light coalition is now more likely.
"Former President Donald Trump on Tuesday urged supporters to get their coronavirus vaccines, extolling it as a “great” and “safe” vaccine and noting that many of his followers are reluctant to be inoculated."
He finally twigged that there’s not much point shouting to the World that he should get all the credit for the vaccines, if his supporters or potential supporters think that the vaccines are the work of the devil.
Absolutely bland and vanilla statement that confirms that Biden is consciously NOT taking sides in the NI Protocol disagreement.
Which suits the UK just fine. Its funny the EU seemed to think Biden was a trump card (pun intended) they could play to force the UK back into line, but now Biden is not interested in whether the UK requires supermarkets to fill in forms for sausage rolls or not. Its simply not a priority for him and he won't get involved and nor will Kamala.
That sounds about right. One gathers from all of this that the Americans are bothered about the maintenance of the open border in Ireland and don't particularly care about the minutiae of customs barriers across the Irish Sea or anything else.
I was wondering who was behind Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice pressure group. From a quick look at some of the organizers, its looks like another (non) Independent SAGE type group.
Its a great idea,. we can then find out why the the NHS packed all those people back off to nursing homes and why and what the failings of NHS were in helping us to a very large number of deaths. But we wont because no one wants to lift that rock.
We will blame the politicians 100%, not the wonks, or the doctors who advise and devise nor point out that we are a fat nation
With respect. That wouldn't be a "full" one. All those things would be good to know for next time. I know, I know.
“The next time” sending the elderly off to nursing homes could be the right decision. That’s the whole problem. It was (highly probably - hospitals were/are very dangerous places for non infected people) the wrong decision this time because of the particular features of Covid 19. Features which were clearly poorly understood at the time, and indeed still don’t be, given there is still a high focus on clean hands and surfaces which at best seems to be a minor effect on virus spread (and not nearly enough on fresh air and ventilation). A different virus, with different characteristics and maximum hospital capacity could be THE defining need.
People talk about the nursing home decisions as officials acting like callous murderers deliberately seeking to kill tens of thousands of people. A balanced enquiry has to look at why those decisions were made, and whether without the benefit of hindsight such decisions might, could or should have been different. There is an enormous risk that the battle against a future pandemic will be lost because eg. We use fighting COVID as the template and discover that we’re fighting some completely different.
Judgements were made, some proved to be wrong, and it would be worth understanding why.
My instinct is that the reaction to the Italian crisis with its overflowing hospitals triggered an over-reaction here, with everything subordinated to the objective of avoiding hospitals collapsing, even where it had the effect of pushing up overall infections and mortality. Hence all the early focus on creating extra pop up hospitals out of nowhere, which in the event were hardly used, while other more critical priorities like proper PPE and test and trace were neglected.
"Former President Donald Trump on Tuesday urged supporters to get their coronavirus vaccines, extolling it as a “great” and “safe” vaccine and noting that many of his followers are reluctant to be inoculated."
"Former President Donald Trump on Tuesday urged supporters to get their coronavirus vaccines, extolling it as a “great” and “safe” vaccine and noting that many of his followers are reluctant to be inoculated."
How would it work though? I thought it would only be possible to do so with social housing. Surely they can’t prevent people from buying houses and living where they like?
To those angry with the government’s opaque communication:
The situation is in some ways not dissimilar to a government refusing to discuss battle minutiae in a war.
When the uk vax programme was trickling along in early Jan, I remember coming here pretty frustrated and saying a competent government would be trying to buy some of India’s production, despite India’s assurances to their own people that they wouldn’t export any. Looks like pretty quietly, this is exactly what the Uk government did. They can’t now loudly disclose that we won’t hit our stretch-on-stretch targets because of a problem in India.
Further the timing of the announcement / leak suspiciously coincides with UvdL’s manic statement yesterday. There may be an element of domestic expectations management that we will be stockpiling Pfizer second doses in anticipation of a potential export ban, but also it’s messaging to the Commission that we’re now struggling with supply just as much as you, with the aim of delaying any blockade.
Finally there’s unspecified talk of a large batch needing to be retested, which I imagine is perfectly normal. You don’t want to talk too loudly about that either so as not to give credibility to the anti vaxxers. Read the comments on the Daily Mail and you’ll see what I mean, they already feel the wind in their sails and need no extra encouragement.
In short, I know it’s hard but cut the government some slack and trust that they’re playing the cards they have as well as they can, in all our interests.
Import from India to the EU of course isn’t allowed, as per the EU-AZ contract...
I recall a little reference to how the U.K. had intervened to assist with the Australia resourcing their AZ supply after the Italian incident.
If the EU had spent more of the last few months working with AZ on ways to get round problems (independently of AZ relationship with other countries through existing contractual relationships) rather than publicly vilifying them... I do get a bit of an impression, perhaps erroneous, that the EU’s almost entire approach is focussed on the supply,or potential supply in the very short term (weeks) when, for realism and considering the ultimate scale, it needs to be focussed on months. The “solution” to short term Covid issues is lockdowns and specific non medical interventions. Vaccines just do not work that quickly. It’s better to have 100m vaccines in 2-3 months than 10m a month for 6.
How would it work though? I thought it would only be possible to do so with social housing. Surely they can’t prevent people from buying houses and living where they like?
That will be inflammatory for many. Denmark could be isolated.
When it came down to freedom of speech and the Motoons, Denmark took a notably purist pro-free-speech postion - more so than the UK and others in Europe.
How would it work though? I thought it would only be possible to do so with social housing. Surely they can’t prevent people from buying houses and living where they like?
That will be inflammatory for many.
Haven't we decided to treat this story with extreme caution, Disclose.tv being a fake news site?
Similar scenes also reported in Liverpool. Young people are done with the rules.
That hardly looks like dangerous or irresponsible activity. That’s the problem when “the rules” still don’t seem consistent or focussed sufficiently on the known and proven risks of Covid. And we know that at least some of the rules have no scientific basis but are political constructions (eg. Rule of six as stated by Vallance the other day)
How would it work though? I thought it would only be possible to do so with social housing. Surely they can’t prevent people from buying houses and living where they like?
That will be inflammatory for many.
Haven't we decided to treat this story with extreme caution, Disclose.tv being a fake news site?
Update: there is also a piece in the Guardian. (Obvs caution, but less caution perhaps). The hint is at disadvantaged areas.
The four criteria are: more than 40% of residents unemployed; more than 60% of 39-50 year-olds with no upper secondary education; crime rates three times higher than the national average; residents having a gross income 55% lower than the regional average.
Fifteen Danish neighbourhoods currently fall into this category, and 25 others are considered “at risk”. The list is updated each December.
In these neighbourhoods, misdemeanours carry double the legal penalties in place elsewhere, and daycare is mandatory for all children over the age of one, or family allowances are withdrawn.
The existing legislation also calls for council homes in these areas to be reduced to 40% of available housing by 2030.
I was wondering who was behind Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice pressure group. From a quick look at some of the organizers, its looks like another (non) Independent SAGE type group.
Its a great idea,. we can then find out why the the NHS packed all those people back off to nursing homes and why and what the failings of NHS were in helping us to a very large number of deaths. But we wont because no one wants to lift that rock.
We will blame the politicians 100%, not the wonks, or the doctors who advise and devise nor point out that we are a fat nation
With respect. That wouldn't be a "full" one. All those things would be good to know for next time. I know, I know.
“The next time” sending the elderly off to nursing homes could be the right decision. That’s the whole problem. It was (highly probably - hospitals were/are very dangerous places for non infected people) the wrong decision this time because of the particular features of Covid 19. Features which were clearly poorly understood at the time, and indeed still don’t be, given there is still a high focus on clean hands and surfaces which at best seems to be a minor effect on virus spread (and not nearly enough on fresh air and ventilation). A different virus, with different characteristics and maximum hospital capacity could be THE defining need.
People talk about the nursing home decisions as officials acting like callous murderers deliberately seeking to kill tens of thousands of people. A balanced enquiry has to look at why those decisions were made, and whether without the benefit of hindsight such decisions might, could or should have been different. There is an enormous risk that the battle against a future pandemic will be lost because eg. We use fighting COVID as the template and discover that we’re fighting some completely different.
Judgements were made, some proved to be wrong, and it would be worth understanding why.
My instinct is that the reaction to the Italian crisis with its overflowing hospitals triggered an over-reaction here, with everything subordinated to the objective of avoiding hospitals collapsing, even where it had the effect of pushing up overall infections and mortality. Hence all the early focus on creating extra pop up hospitals out of nowhere, which in the event were hardly used, while other more critical priorities like proper PPE and test and trace were neglected.
Yes, that pretty much was how the internal management communications read. Indeed in the first wave we were banned from wearing PPE apart from in covid wards.
I was wondering who was behind Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice pressure group. From a quick look at some of the organizers, its looks like another (non) Independent SAGE type group.
Its a great idea,. we can then find out why the the NHS packed all those people back off to nursing homes and why and what the failings of NHS were in helping us to a very large number of deaths. But we wont because no one wants to lift that rock.
We will blame the politicians 100%, not the wonks, or the doctors who advise and devise nor point out that we are a fat nation
With respect. That wouldn't be a "full" one. All those things would be good to know for next time. I know, I know.
“The next time” sending the elderly off to nursing homes could be the right decision. That’s the whole problem. It was (highly probably - hospitals were/are very dangerous places for non infected people) the wrong decision this time because of the particular features of Covid 19. Features which were clearly poorly understood at the time, and indeed still don’t be, given there is still a high focus on clean hands and surfaces which at best seems to be a minor effect on virus spread (and not nearly enough on fresh air and ventilation). A different virus, with different characteristics and maximum hospital capacity could be THE defining need.
People talk about the nursing home decisions as officials acting like callous murderers deliberately seeking to kill tens of thousands of people. A balanced enquiry has to look at why those decisions were made, and whether without the benefit of hindsight such decisions might, could or should have been different. There is an enormous risk that the battle against a future pandemic will be lost because eg. We use fighting COVID as the template and discover that we’re fighting some completely different.
Judgements were made, some proved to be wrong, and it would be worth understanding why.
My instinct is that the reaction to the Italian crisis with its overflowing hospitals triggered an over-reaction here, with everything subordinated to the objective of avoiding hospitals collapsing, even where it had the effect of pushing up overall infections and mortality. Hence all the early focus on creating extra pop up hospitals out of nowhere, which in the event were hardly used, while other more critical priorities like proper PPE and test and trace were neglected.
Indeed - but inquiries (which have to happen) are very emotive things, because of the two, largely incompatible drivers behind them. One being to learn lessons (and the right ones), and the other being “people must be held accountable”.
To those angry with the government’s opaque communication:
The situation is in some ways not dissimilar to a government refusing to discuss battle minutiae in a war.
When the uk vax programme was trickling along in early Jan, I remember coming here pretty frustrated and saying a competent government would be trying to buy some of India’s production, despite India’s assurances to their own people that they wouldn’t export any. Looks like pretty quietly, this is exactly what the Uk government did. They can’t now loudly disclose that we won’t hit our stretch-on-stretch targets because of a problem in India.
Further the timing of the announcement / leak suspiciously coincides with UvdL’s manic statement yesterday. There may be an element of domestic expectations management that we will be stockpiling Pfizer second doses in anticipation of a potential export ban, but also it’s messaging to the Commission that we’re now struggling with supply just as much as you, with the aim of delaying any blockade.
Finally there’s unspecified talk of a large batch needing to be retested, which I imagine is perfectly normal. You don’t want to talk too loudly about that either so as not to give credibility to the anti vaxxers. Read the comments on the Daily Mail and you’ll see what I mean, they already feel the wind in their sails and need no extra encouragement.
In short, I know it’s hard but cut the government some slack and trust that they’re playing the cards they have as well as they can, in all our interests.
When did India assure its own population it wouldn't export any vaccine? They've exported 58 million doses - more than they've actually used in India
When the AZ vaccine was first licenced in India, there was officially an export ban put in place, then exemptions were made for Covax, then a big order from somewhere or other, and before you know it half have gone elsewhere. There’s now, understandably, some pushback on the politicians, who are being told to prioritise Indians over exports.
"Pfizer and AstraZeneca deny domestic coronavirus vaccine shortage
Drugs giants Pfizer and AstraZeneca have rejected an NHS claim that the UK is facing a COVID-19 vaccine shortage, insisting there is no threat to supplies. The two leading vaccine manufacturers both said they remain on course to meet their delivery commitments and denied they were facing disruption in supplies. Their defiant statements appeared to contradict a letter to vaccination centres from NHS England warning there will be a "significant reduction" in supplies next month."
To those angry with the government’s opaque communication:
The situation is in some ways not dissimilar to a government refusing to discuss battle minutiae in a war.
When the uk vax programme was trickling along in early Jan, I remember coming here pretty frustrated and saying a competent government would be trying to buy some of India’s production, despite India’s assurances to their own people that they wouldn’t export any. Looks like pretty quietly, this is exactly what the Uk government did. They can’t now loudly disclose that we won’t hit our stretch-on-stretch targets because of a problem in India.
Further the timing of the announcement / leak suspiciously coincides with UvdL’s manic statement yesterday. There may be an element of domestic expectations management that we will be stockpiling Pfizer second doses in anticipation of a potential export ban, but also it’s messaging to the Commission that we’re now struggling with supply just as much as you, with the aim of delaying any blockade.
Finally there’s unspecified talk of a large batch needing to be retested, which I imagine is perfectly normal. You don’t want to talk too loudly about that either so as not to give credibility to the anti vaxxers. Read the comments on the Daily Mail and you’ll see what I mean, they already feel the wind in their sails and need no extra encouragement.
In short, I know it’s hard but cut the government some slack and trust that they’re playing the cards they have as well as they can, in all our interests.
When did India assure its own population it wouldn't export any vaccine? They've exported 58 million doses - more than they've actually used in India
When the AZ vaccine was first licenced in India, there was officially an export ban put in place, then exemptions were made for Covax, then a big order from somewhere or other, and before you know it half have gone elsewhere. There’s now, understandably, some pushback on the politicians, who are being told to prioritise Indians over exports.
Of course, IF the Indian government has kept back vaccines destined for the UK I expect lots of calls on PB.com to nuke India.
I was wondering who was behind Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice pressure group. From a quick look at some of the organizers, its looks like another (non) Independent SAGE type group.
Its a great idea,. we can then find out why the the NHS packed all those people back off to nursing homes and why and what the failings of NHS were in helping us to a very large number of deaths. But we wont because no one wants to lift that rock.
We will blame the politicians 100%, not the wonks, or the doctors who advise and devise nor point out that we are a fat nation
With respect. That wouldn't be a "full" one. All those things would be good to know for next time. I know, I know.
“The next time” sending the elderly off to nursing homes could be the right decision. That’s the whole problem. It was (highly probably - hospitals were/are very dangerous places for non infected people) the wrong decision this time because of the particular features of Covid 19. Features which were clearly poorly understood at the time, and indeed still don’t be, given there is still a high focus on clean hands and surfaces which at best seems to be a minor effect on virus spread (and not nearly enough on fresh air and ventilation). A different virus, with different characteristics and maximum hospital capacity could be THE defining need.
People talk about the nursing home decisions as officials acting like callous murderers deliberately seeking to kill tens of thousands of people. A balanced enquiry has to look at why those decisions were made, and whether without the benefit of hindsight such decisions might, could or should have been different. There is an enormous risk that the battle against a future pandemic will be lost because eg. We use fighting COVID as the template and discover that we’re fighting some completely different.
Judgements were made, some proved to be wrong, and it would be worth understanding why.
My instinct is that the reaction to the Italian crisis with its overflowing hospitals triggered an over-reaction here, with everything subordinated to the objective of avoiding hospitals collapsing, even where it had the effect of pushing up overall infections and mortality. Hence all the early focus on creating extra pop up hospitals out of nowhere, which in the event were hardly used, while other more critical priorities like proper PPE and test and trace were neglected.
Indeed - but inquiries (which have to happen) are very emotive things, because of the two, largely incompatible drivers behind them. One being to learn lessons (and the right ones), and the other being “people must be held accountable”.
Indeed. The initial enquiries need to be run along the lines of a transport accident enquiry, looking at how decisions were made, what led to the holes in the Swiss cheese lining up on this occasion, and - most importantly - what can we learn in both the short term and long term, to prevent the problems that occurred from happening in the future.
Similar scenes also reported in Liverpool. Young people are done with the rules.
Lord Sumption:
"On the ethics of law-breaking:
“I feel sad that we have the kind of laws which public-spirited people may need to break. I have always taken a line on this, which is probably different from that of most of my former colleagues. I do not believe that there is a moral obligation to obey the law… You have to have a high degree of respect, both for the object that the law is trying to achieve, and for the way that it’s been achieved. Some laws invite breach. I think this is one of them.”"
I expect the CDU could do quite badly in September. The federal government has shown a total lack of leadership since the pandemic began. Yes, they are hampered a bit by constitutional issues, but that is not an excuse. The latest display of complete incompetence and indecision is only going to make their polling fall further.
Before the pandemic hit the Greens were polling in the low twenties, and sometimes equal to CDU/CSU, so in a way the latest polling is a reversion to that, but I wonder if the CDU's reputation is so damaged that instead of a Union-Green coalition, a Traffic Light coalition is now more likely.
Similar scenes also reported in Liverpool. Young people are done with the rules.
That hardly looks like dangerous or irresponsible activity. That’s the problem when “the rules” still don’t seem consistent or focussed sufficiently on the known and proven risks of Covid. And we know that at least some of the rules have no scientific basis but are political constructions (eg. Rule of six as stated by Vallance the other day)
If the rules were all based on fact then we wouldn't be facing a situation in which shops are slated to open five weeks before indoor dining - something which is currently the subject of a court case. After all, going to a restaurant involves basically being glued to a chair and surrounded with partitions; going to a shop is a total free-for-all with people picking stuff up and putting it back down again, no distancing, no contact tracing, basically nothing except the dreaded masks (which is part of the reason why, IIRC, about half of all Covid infections have been pinned on the supermarkets.)
The entire package of restrictions that constitutes the misery of lockdown appears to have been successful in dealing with the case rate, but this doesn't necessarily mean that all of the restrictions have made a meaningful contribution. It's quite possible that many of them were complete unnecessary - but proving it is easier said than done, sadly.
To those angry with the government’s opaque communication:
The situation is in some ways not dissimilar to a government refusing to discuss battle minutiae in a war.
When the uk vax programme was trickling along in early Jan, I remember coming here pretty frustrated and saying a competent government would be trying to buy some of India’s production, despite India’s assurances to their own people that they wouldn’t export any. Looks like pretty quietly, this is exactly what the Uk government did. They can’t now loudly disclose that we won’t hit our stretch-on-stretch targets because of a problem in India.
Further the timing of the announcement / leak suspiciously coincides with UvdL’s manic statement yesterday. There may be an element of domestic expectations management that we will be stockpiling Pfizer second doses in anticipation of a potential export ban, but also it’s messaging to the Commission that we’re now struggling with supply just as much as you, with the aim of delaying any blockade.
Finally there’s unspecified talk of a large batch needing to be retested, which I imagine is perfectly normal. You don’t want to talk too loudly about that either so as not to give credibility to the anti vaxxers. Read the comments on the Daily Mail and you’ll see what I mean, they already feel the wind in their sails and need no extra encouragement.
In short, I know it’s hard but cut the government some slack and trust that they’re playing the cards they have as well as they can, in all our interests.
When did India assure its own population it wouldn't export any vaccine? They've exported 58 million doses - more than they've actually used in India
When the AZ vaccine was first licenced in India, there was officially an export ban put in place, then exemptions were made for Covax, then a big order from somewhere or other, and before you know it half have gone elsewhere. There’s now, understandably, some pushback on the politicians, who are being told to prioritise Indians over exports.
Of course, IF the Indian government has kept back vaccines destined for the UK I expect lots of calls on PB.com to nuke India.
And an apology to readers last night who had to endure a whole evening of the site twat ranting on about Europe?
How would it work though? I thought it would only be possible to do so with social housing. Surely they can’t prevent people from buying houses and living where they like?
That will be inflammatory for many.
Haven't we decided to treat this story with extreme caution, Disclose.tv being a fake news site?
Update: there is also a piece in the Guardian. (Obvs caution, but less caution perhaps). The hint is at disadvantaged areas.
The four criteria are: more than 40% of residents unemployed; more than 60% of 39-50 year-olds with no upper secondary education; crime rates three times higher than the national average; residents having a gross income 55% lower than the regional average.
Fifteen Danish neighbourhoods currently fall into this category, and 25 others are considered “at risk”. The list is updated each December.
In these neighbourhoods, misdemeanours carry double the legal penalties in place elsewhere, and daycare is mandatory for all children over the age of one, or family allowances are withdrawn.
The existing legislation also calls for council homes in these areas to be reduced to 40% of available housing by 2030.
(I'm catching up with late night comments)
The latter point is a tension you often see in local council debates. One side (usually Labour of course) is always arguing to maximise “affordable” or even “social” (genuinely low cost) housing on all housing or estate regeneration projects. The other not so much. Both can be argued for base political/electoral purposes, and both can have persuasive non political justification in different circumstances.
Where new housing developments are occurring the balance is often on the side of (Labour). The fear is of areas becoming increasingly unaffordable to many, as they are crowded out, and developers seeking to maximise profits want to crowd out all “undesirable” elements.
Where estate regeneration is occurring it is often the complete opposite. There is a strong argument for dramatically upscaling the level of private and expensive housing, which is likely to drive improvements for the whole area (including existing inhabitants - as long as their tenancy rights are protected)
Similar scenes also reported in Liverpool. Young people are done with the rules.
Lord Sumption:
"On the ethics of law-breaking:
“I feel sad that we have the kind of laws which public-spirited people may need to break. I have always taken a line on this, which is probably different from that of most of my former colleagues. I do not believe that there is a moral obligation to obey the law… You have to have a high degree of respect, both for the object that the law is trying to achieve, and for the way that it’s been achieved. Some laws invite breach. I think this is one of them.”"
Well, yes, quite. It's like the regulations that allow folk to go for a walk in the park but not to eat a sandwich or sit on a bench. They invite people who have always respected the law in the past to treat it with open contempt. And once you've become habituated to deciding for yourself which rules to stick to and which to toss on the bonfire, why stop there? It's not ideal.
Some trouble brewing in @NickPalmer old patch of Broxtowe with Con MP staff member.
Hadn't heard about that but have looked it up. Matt Turpin (the blogger whom the staffer apparently visited at his home) is a well-known local figure who has been doing his Beestonia blog for about 15 years. He writes really well and is independent of party, but he's generally anti-Tory. There is a GDPR question about how the staff member got Matt's private address as well as the obviously undesirable idea of turning up at a journalist's home to demand that he withdraw articles.
Not completely unknown when one lives under a dictatorship.
We were on a path for a vaccine emergency authorization (EUA) before November 3rd. Thanks to the FDA, Trump's plan was disrupted. That won't happen. First real sign of the independence of FDA since the pandemic started. And that's important.
To those angry with the government’s opaque communication:
The situation is in some ways not dissimilar to a government refusing to discuss battle minutiae in a war.
When the uk vax programme was trickling along in early Jan, I remember coming here pretty frustrated and saying a competent government would be trying to buy some of India’s production, despite India’s assurances to their own people that they wouldn’t export any. Looks like pretty quietly, this is exactly what the Uk government did. They can’t now loudly disclose that we won’t hit our stretch-on-stretch targets because of a problem in India.
Further the timing of the announcement / leak suspiciously coincides with UvdL’s manic statement yesterday. There may be an element of domestic expectations management that we will be stockpiling Pfizer second doses in anticipation of a potential export ban, but also it’s messaging to the Commission that we’re now struggling with supply just as much as you, with the aim of delaying any blockade.
Finally there’s unspecified talk of a large batch needing to be retested, which I imagine is perfectly normal. You don’t want to talk too loudly about that either so as not to give credibility to the anti vaxxers. Read the comments on the Daily Mail and you’ll see what I mean, they already feel the wind in their sails and need no extra encouragement.
In short, I know it’s hard but cut the government some slack and trust that they’re playing the cards they have as well as they can, in all our interests.
When did India assure its own population it wouldn't export any vaccine? They've exported 58 million doses - more than they've actually used in India
When the AZ vaccine was first licenced in India, there was officially an export ban put in place, then exemptions were made for Covax, then a big order from somewhere or other, and before you know it half have gone elsewhere. There’s now, understandably, some pushback on the politicians, who are being told to prioritise Indians over exports.
But if the UK's 5 million doses ends up going to the EU - will anyone be surprised? It would be a rather neat solution to the mechanism for the price of any UK-EU Brexit side deal being delivered. EU gets the jabs it says it wants (although it will require quite a volte face, but it being a French term, presumably it is not unknown in France). The Indians still get foreign exchange (though whether Euros or Pounds Sterling would be interesting to know). The UK has a jabs drop in April, but is essentially still on track for June 21 opening because it entered into multiple contracts with multiple sources and at least some of those will be delivering bigly, shortly.
Meanwhile, the EU gets "pragmatic" on revisions to Irish border trade and tells the French customs to "cut them some slack"... That would look like a win for the Foreign Office, for once.
Similar scenes also reported in Liverpool. Young people are done with the rules.
Lord Sumption:
"On the ethics of law-breaking:
“I feel sad that we have the kind of laws which public-spirited people may need to break. I have always taken a line on this, which is probably different from that of most of my former colleagues. I do not believe that there is a moral obligation to obey the law… You have to have a high degree of respect, both for the object that the law is trying to achieve, and for the way that it’s been achieved. Some laws invite breach. I think this is one of them.”"
Any politician doing the Double-Thumbs Thing invariably looks dumb. Trump did it. Boris does it. Only Tricky Dickie Nixon managed a worse look with the Double-V-for-Victory thing. Urgh.
To those angry with the government’s opaque communication:
The situation is in some ways not dissimilar to a government refusing to discuss battle minutiae in a war.
When the uk vax programme was trickling along in early Jan, I remember coming here pretty frustrated and saying a competent government would be trying to buy some of India’s production, despite India’s assurances to their own people that they wouldn’t export any. Looks like pretty quietly, this is exactly what the Uk government did. They can’t now loudly disclose that we won’t hit our stretch-on-stretch targets because of a problem in India.
Further the timing of the announcement / leak suspiciously coincides with UvdL’s manic statement yesterday. There may be an element of domestic expectations management that we will be stockpiling Pfizer second doses in anticipation of a potential export ban, but also it’s messaging to the Commission that we’re now struggling with supply just as much as you, with the aim of delaying any blockade.
Finally there’s unspecified talk of a large batch needing to be retested, which I imagine is perfectly normal. You don’t want to talk too loudly about that either so as not to give credibility to the anti vaxxers. Read the comments on the Daily Mail and you’ll see what I mean, they already feel the wind in their sails and need no extra encouragement.
In short, I know it’s hard but cut the government some slack and trust that they’re playing the cards they have as well as they can, in all our interests.
When did India assure its own population it wouldn't export any vaccine? They've exported 58 million doses - more than they've actually used in India
When the AZ vaccine was first licenced in India, there was officially an export ban put in place, then exemptions were made for Covax, then a big order from somewhere or other, and before you know it half have gone elsewhere. There’s now, understandably, some pushback on the politicians, who are being told to prioritise Indians over exports.
But if the UK's 5 million doses ends up going to the EU - will anyone be surprised? It would be a rather neat solution to the mechanism for the price of any UK-EU Brexit side deal being delivered. EU gets the jabs it says it wants (although it will require quite a volte face, but it being a French term, presumably it is not unknown in France). The Indians still get foreign exchange (though whether Euros or Pounds Sterling would be interesting to know). The UK has a jabs drop in April, but is essentially still on track for June 21 opening because it entered into multiple contracts with multiple sources and at least some of those will be delivering bigly, shortly.
Meanwhile, the EU gets "pragmatic" on revisions to Irish border trade and tells the French customs to "cut them some slack"... That would look like a win for the Foreign Office, for once.
This assumes a degree of competent coordination and pragmatism across multiple conflicting actors in Europe that we haven’t seen much evidence of recently.
I expect the CDU could do quite badly in September. The federal government has shown a total lack of leadership since the pandemic began. Yes, they are hampered a bit by constitutional issues, but that is not an excuse. The latest display of complete incompetence and indecision is only going to make their polling fall further.
Before the pandemic hit the Greens were polling in the low twenties, and sometimes equal to CDU/CSU, so in a way the latest polling is a reversion to that, but I wonder if the CDU's reputation is so damaged that instead of a Union-Green coalition, a Traffic Light coalition is now more likely.
Merkel running is surely a huge factor here, too.
Or not running. Her apparent continuing relative popularity is a bit mystifying to me as she has been fairly useless. I don't expect the EU commission to look after my health, and in a pandemic crisis I don't expect NRW to (even if it is their competence), nor Stadt Köln, nor the Techniker Krankenkasse - I expect the national government and the chancellor to step up. They haven't.
Laschet is uninspiring, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the CDU/CSU chancellor candidate ends up being Söder who people seem to like more.
Spahn might have to lie low for a while. He should be finished really. I know someone who had his sleeve rolled up ready to get his AZ shot who was then told he couldn't have it because AZ was being suspended. He was "I don't care, just give me the vaccine!" but they couldn't, and all the people waiting were sent home. It's only going to take Bild splashing on a grieving family in 3 weeks time of someone who died of Covid who had a cancelled appointment for things to get quite dicey for Spahn.
Meanwhile, I expect that they will resume AZ in Germany today with some extra paperwork to sign saying "yes I understand I might die of a rare blood clot" it should add "like every other medicine you can take" but won't. On a personal note I suppose it might make it quicker for me to get vaccinated if lots of people then decide to wait to get a different vaccine... but what a fuckup.
Similar scenes also reported in Liverpool. Young people are done with the rules.
Could have been worse for society. It could have been exclusively the elderly jabbed, sat around in the sunshine flaunting their safe status by raising a can of Guinness to the poor unjabbed youngsters stuck at home for weeks to come....
"Pfizer and AstraZeneca deny domestic coronavirus vaccine shortage
Drugs giants Pfizer and AstraZeneca have rejected an NHS claim that the UK is facing a COVID-19 vaccine shortage, insisting there is no threat to supplies. The two leading vaccine manufacturers both said they remain on course to meet their delivery commitments and denied they were facing disruption in supplies. Their defiant statements appeared to contradict a letter to vaccination centres from NHS England warning there will be a "significant reduction" in supplies next month."
Instinct is that both can be true. NHS could have been hoping for a scaling up in supplies to outpace the need for second jabs. “Shortfall” is being misrepresented as “reduction”.
Or it could just all be expectations management. Or simply somebody somewhere along the line made a miscalculation on supply versus need (most likely explanation...)
To those angry with the government’s opaque communication:
The situation is in some ways not dissimilar to a government refusing to discuss battle minutiae in a war.
When the uk vax programme was trickling along in early Jan, I remember coming here pretty frustrated and saying a competent government would be trying to buy some of India’s production, despite India’s assurances to their own people that they wouldn’t export any. Looks like pretty quietly, this is exactly what the Uk government did. They can’t now loudly disclose that we won’t hit our stretch-on-stretch targets because of a problem in India.
Further the timing of the announcement / leak suspiciously coincides with UvdL’s manic statement yesterday. There may be an element of domestic expectations management that we will be stockpiling Pfizer second doses in anticipation of a potential export ban, but also it’s messaging to the Commission that we’re now struggling with supply just as much as you, with the aim of delaying any blockade.
Finally there’s unspecified talk of a large batch needing to be retested, which I imagine is perfectly normal. You don’t want to talk too loudly about that either so as not to give credibility to the anti vaxxers. Read the comments on the Daily Mail and you’ll see what I mean, they already feel the wind in their sails and need no extra encouragement.
In short, I know it’s hard but cut the government some slack and trust that they’re playing the cards they have as well as they can, in all our interests.
When did India assure its own population it wouldn't export any vaccine? They've exported 58 million doses - more than they've actually used in India
When the AZ vaccine was first licenced in India, there was officially an export ban put in place, then exemptions were made for Covax, then a big order from somewhere or other, and before you know it half have gone elsewhere. There’s now, understandably, some pushback on the politicians, who are being told to prioritise Indians over exports.
But if the UK's 5 million doses ends up going to the EU - will anyone be surprised? It would be a rather neat solution to the mechanism for the price of any UK-EU Brexit side deal being delivered. EU gets the jabs it says it wants (although it will require quite a volte face, but it being a French term, presumably it is not unknown in France). The Indians still get foreign exchange (though whether Euros or Pounds Sterling would be interesting to know). The UK has a jabs drop in April, but is essentially still on track for June 21 opening because it entered into multiple contracts with multiple sources and at least some of those will be delivering bigly, shortly.
Meanwhile, the EU gets "pragmatic" on revisions to Irish border trade and tells the French customs to "cut them some slack"... That would look like a win for the Foreign Office, for once.
This assumes a degree of competent coordination and pragmatism across multiple conflicting actors in Europe that we haven’t seen much evidence of recently.
It would have novelty value for sure.
But I offer it up to the powers that be as a route out, if as you expect they haven't go that far in their unjoined thinking....
Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.
Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)
No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.
Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.
In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.
The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
Max, do you know how much vax the AZ labs in the UK can produce? Their production is fine, they say. So we will still have that supply, uninterrupted
From what I understand around 10-12m per month right now but remember that doses we expect in April were actually produced in January or February at some point and are going through the fill and finish process now and then will be certified before being released for dispatch to be used in April.
It's not so much a production issue for the active ingredient as it is everything else to do with it, glassware, fill and finish, bottle caps, all of this is in huge demand globally and it's led to shortages. That's what all of the vaccine makers are up against. Honestly it's a miracle we've done as many vaccinations as we have in this country. Until the VTF the UK was a non-entity for vaccines.
Interesting ta.
This Guardian story on the slowdown has one hopeful element, tho it is generally negative
"Some vaccinations for people under 50 could potentially still go ahead from mid-April, when the UK is also expecting to start receiving supplies of the Moderna vaccine, subject to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approval process."
Indeed, I'm honestly completely relaxed about the situation. These kinds of production issues were bound to happen, that they're happening when we're through the most important part of the scheme that allows us to unlockdown is a great. Imagine if this slowdown had hit us in February rather than April, we'd have missed all of the JCVI targets, groups 1-4 would still be ongoing and we'd be looking at beginning unlockdown in May or June rather than April. My main goals are to be able to meet my friends, go for a drink, go to a restaurant and so on. Whether or not I've personally been vaccinated is irrelevant for these goals.
When we take into account Moderna and Novavax arriving in April there is literally no need for this doom and gloom, the situation for under 50s remains unchanged.
Quite.
The same people panicking now, are the same people who considered getting half the adult population vaccinated by the middle of March inconceivable.
What's astonishing is that we are where we are, with little likelihood the virus will run out of control again, and with massive supplies of vaccines coming in the next few months.
I think some posters on this site are just addicted to bad news.
You’re sitting in sunny California, and you go skiing at weekends. Also your vaccine supply is assured.
That life looks utterly inconceivable from still-wintry London, where everything and everywhere is shut. Now our vaccine supply looks iffy. And our neighbours, in Europe, are having a psychotic breakdown, threatening to steal what vaccines we DO have
We are allowed to be a little more anxious
Skiing this weekend in Tahoe was awesome. Fabulous weather, everything beginning to reopen and a real air of hope and optimism.
No, that’s not how it works. You’re meant to say ‘oh it’s not that great, we’re still wearing masks, the skiing is sub par’ etc. You don’t boast how ‘awesome’ things are DURING A PLAGUE, especially when your boasts are addressed to your suffering compatriots back home. Tut
On the other hand, it could be worse. We could all be in Philadelphia
Comments
It is the best humanitarian thing to do. Crossing the Channel in dinghies is dangerous and only doing this will stop it.
This is also what the Aussies did, so there's good precedent and lessons to follow. Once the Aussies started doing this, the boats dried up quite quickly.
The likes of the Guardian would scream blue murder, but doing this will save lives.
For a start we would have joined the EU Covid solidarity fund, last year, because we would have expected a hefty chunk of help, given our high death rate. Having taken that cash, the idea we could then still ‘hoard’ vaccines is nuts. Of course we would now be pooling them, for the greater EU cause
This is one of the maddest Remainer arguments I have seen. And that is some stiff competition
Yes, I just had a look through the Novavax website and it doesn't seem as though there is any EU deal signed. They have signed deals with South Korea, Japan, Canada, Australia, Switzerland and GAVI since the successful preliminary data readout. The EU is still in exploratory talks.
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1372289006608744454?s=20
If however it is losing popularity than SKS is sufficiently inoffensive he could win, a UK Hollande or Biden
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/mar/17/labour-calls-for-full-covid-public-inquiry-starting-in-june
I was wondering who was behind Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice pressure group. From a quick look at some of the organizers, its looks like another (non) Independent SAGE type group.
But we wont because no one wants to lift that rock.
We will blame the politicians 100%, not the wonks, or the doctors who advise and devise nor point out that we are a fat nation
I have never felt so nervous as I did that day. I couldn't watch or listen to news. Couldn't even watch here as it got towards 10pm. The only way I could bring myself to follow it was by watching the price of the pound. The relief when it ticked up at 10 o'clock was like nothing I have ever felt before.
In a sense, what Starmer does or doesn't do is irrelevant. If the Tories can get 40% they win.
Of course, he can affect that at the margins, but if that is to reduce them from 44% to 41% then that is precious use.
I know, I know.
Should have kept the preceding MP I reckon.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-56429122
Brazil looks horrendous.
Regarding his chances in 2024, if we emerge from the pandemic on schedule this year and the economy bounces back strongly, he has no chance. If the economy struggles and the government loses popularity, he has a reasonable outside chance. He’s inoffensive and provides potential safe harbour - but his role in history is to do the dirty work in cleaning up a great party of state.
Back to the old notion that Governments lose elections rather than oppositions winning them. And that is what Starmer will need. It's not guaranteed, but this Government losing support post-pandemic really isn't difficult to foresee.
Apocalyptic, as bad as us in January, but getting worse?
Which suits the UK just fine. Its funny the EU seemed to think Biden was a trump card (pun intended) they could play to force the UK back into line, but now Biden is not interested in whether the UK requires supermarkets to fill in forms for sausage rolls or not. Its simply not a priority for him and he won't get involved and nor will Kamala.
22, 38 and 52 miles away.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2021/03/16/its-something-that-works-trump-urges-distrustful-supporters-to-get-vaccine
The situation is in some ways not dissimilar to a government refusing to discuss battle minutiae in a war.
When the uk vax programme was trickling along in early Jan, I remember coming here pretty frustrated and saying a competent government would be trying to buy some of India’s production, despite India’s assurances to their own people that they wouldn’t export any. Looks like pretty quietly, this is exactly what the Uk government did. They can’t now loudly disclose that we won’t hit our stretch-on-stretch targets because of a problem in India.
Further the timing of the announcement / leak suspiciously coincides with UvdL’s manic statement yesterday. There may be an element of domestic expectations management that we will be stockpiling Pfizer second doses in anticipation of a potential export ban, but also it’s messaging to the Commission that we’re now struggling with supply just as much as you, with the aim of delaying any blockade.
Finally there’s unspecified talk of a large batch needing to be retested, which I imagine is perfectly normal. You don’t want to talk too loudly about that either so as not to give credibility to the anti vaxxers. Read the comments on the Daily Mail and you’ll see what I mean, they already feel the wind in their sails and need no extra encouragement.
In short, I know it’s hard but cut the government some slack and trust that they’re playing the cards they have as well as they can, in all our interests.
@EuropeElects
Germany, Forsa poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 29% (-4)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 21% (+3)
SPD-S&D: 16%
AfD-ID: 10%
FDP-RE: 8%
LINKE-LEFT: 8%
+/- vs. 2-8 Mar
Fieldwork: 9-15 March 2021
Sample size: 2,501"
In an assessment of policy over the last year, it said delaying the start of the latest lockdown until January, despite evidence of fast-rising cases before Christmas, led to around a fifth of all fatalities caused by the virus. It said these could have been avoided if restrictions were put in place quickly enough to prevent the death rate rising from early December.
Going timidly and late on lockdowns has been a disaster – causing many thousands of avoidable deaths,” said Mike Brewer, chief economist at the foundation. “Furthermore, delays to restrictions have meant them needing to be tougher and longer-lasting than in other countries, thereby worsening the economic damage.
The report details how when Italy announced a national lockdown on 9 March 2020, Boris Johnson waited two weeks before doing the same in the UK. In September after cases started rising again and the government’s scientific advisers urged a circuit breaker lockdown, the government did not introduce an England-wide lockdown for over five weeks and this winter “the pattern of letting the caseload surge before acting” was repeated.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-exports-over-twice-the-number-of-doses-used-at-home/articleshow/81540812.cms
People talk about the nursing home decisions as officials acting like callous murderers deliberately seeking to kill tens of thousands of people. A balanced enquiry has to look at why those decisions were made, and whether without the benefit of hindsight such decisions might, could or should have been different. There is an enormous risk that the battle against a future pandemic will be lost because eg. We use fighting COVID as the template and discover that we’re fighting some completely different.
Before the pandemic hit the Greens were polling in the low twenties, and sometimes equal to CDU/CSU, so in a way the latest polling is a reversion to that, but I wonder if the CDU's reputation is so damaged that instead of a Union-Green coalition, a Traffic Light coalition is now more likely.
He finally twigged that there’s not much point shouting to the World that he should get all the credit for the vaccines, if his supporters or potential supporters think that the vaccines are the work of the devil.
1 billion out of 5billion does seem a hell of a lot though...
https://twitter.com/artfletch/status/1372285650729369609
My instinct is that the reaction to the Italian crisis with its overflowing hospitals triggered an over-reaction here, with everything subordinated to the objective of avoiding hospitals collapsing, even where it had the effect of pushing up overall infections and mortality. Hence all the early focus on creating extra pop up hospitals out of nowhere, which in the event were hardly used, while other more critical priorities like proper PPE and test and trace were neglected.
(OMG - I just used "Trump" and "responsible" in the same sentence. I've woken up to the End Days, haven't I?)
Similar scenes also reported in Liverpool. Young people are done with the rules.
I recall a little reference to how the U.K. had intervened to assist with the Australia resourcing their AZ supply after the Italian incident.
If the EU had spent more of the last few months working with AZ on ways to get round problems (independently of AZ relationship with other countries through existing contractual relationships) rather than publicly vilifying them... I do get a bit of an impression, perhaps erroneous, that the EU’s almost entire approach is focussed on the supply,or potential supply in the very short term (weeks) when, for realism and considering the ultimate scale, it needs to be focussed on months. The “solution” to short term Covid issues is lockdowns and specific non medical interventions. Vaccines just do not work that quickly. It’s better to have 100m vaccines in 2-3 months than 10m a month for 6.
When it came down to freedom of speech and the Motoons, Denmark took a notably purist pro-free-speech postion - more so than the UK and others in Europe.
Background: certain measures are already in place from several years ago.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/17/denmark-plans-to-limit-non-western-residents-in-disadvantaged-areas#:~:text=In the bill – a review,of 30% within 10 years.
How is this different eg from a more localised version of the Group Areas Act in South Africa?
(I don't know the answers to the last)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/17/denmark-plans-to-limit-non-western-residents-in-disadvantaged-areas#:~:text=In the bill – a review,of 30% within 10 years
The four criteria are: more than 40% of residents unemployed; more than 60% of 39-50 year-olds with no upper secondary education; crime rates three times higher than the national average; residents having a gross income 55% lower than the regional average.
Fifteen Danish neighbourhoods currently fall into this category, and 25 others are considered “at risk”. The list is updated each December.
In these neighbourhoods, misdemeanours carry double the legal penalties in place elsewhere, and daycare is mandatory for all children over the age of one, or family allowances are withdrawn.
The existing legislation also calls for council homes in these areas to be reduced to 40% of available housing by 2030.
(I'm catching up with late night comments)
Which is every poll.
Drugs giants Pfizer and AstraZeneca have rejected an NHS claim that the UK is facing a COVID-19 vaccine shortage, insisting there is no threat to supplies. The two leading vaccine manufacturers both said they remain on course to meet their delivery commitments and denied they were facing disruption in supplies. Their defiant statements appeared to contradict a letter to vaccination centres from NHS England warning there will be a "significant reduction" in supplies next month."
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-pfizer-and-astrazeneca-deny-coronavirus-vaccine-shortage-12249287
"On the ethics of law-breaking:
“I feel sad that we have the kind of laws which public-spirited people may need to break. I have always taken a line on this, which is probably different from that of most of my former colleagues. I do not believe that there is a moral obligation to obey the law… You have to have a high degree of respect, both for the object that the law is trying to achieve, and for the way that it’s been achieved. Some laws invite breach. I think this is one of them.”"
https://unherd.com/2021/03/lord-sumption-civil-disobedience-has-begun/
Sunak leads Johnson by one but Starmer by only two.
How does that work?
I am not questioning the poll. I am wondering what it is telling us.
The entire package of restrictions that constitutes the misery of lockdown appears to have been successful in dealing with the case rate, but this doesn't necessarily mean that all of the restrictions have made a meaningful contribution. It's quite possible that many of them were complete unnecessary - but proving it is easier said than done, sadly.
Mr. Observer, it's just like a triangle system in a beat 'em up.
One's good at kicking, one at punching, and one at throws/grappling.
Of course, whoever gets Blanka as their leader will end up being unstoppable.
The latter point is a tension you often see in local council debates. One side (usually Labour of course) is always arguing to maximise “affordable” or even “social” (genuinely low cost) housing on all housing or estate regeneration projects. The other not so much. Both can be argued for base political/electoral purposes, and both can have persuasive non political justification in different circumstances.
Where new housing developments are occurring the balance is often on the side of (Labour). The fear is of areas becoming increasingly unaffordable to many, as they are crowded out, and developers seeking to maximise profits want to crowd out all “undesirable” elements.
Where estate regeneration is occurring it is often the complete opposite. There is a strong argument for dramatically upscaling the level of private and expensive housing, which is likely to drive improvements for the whole area (including existing inhabitants - as long as their tenancy rights are protected)
Verbatim tweet from Eric Topol
We were on a path for a vaccine emergency authorization (EUA) before November 3rd. Thanks to the FDA, Trump's plan was disrupted. That won't happen.
First real sign of the independence of FDA since the pandemic started. And that's important.
Or, there are people out there who will vote for Boris Johnson because they find him funny, which Sunak isn’t?
Those are the two possible answers that spring to mind.
One thing it does show is that the the Johnson brand is still important, even if it is not without challenge.
Meanwhile, the EU gets "pragmatic" on revisions to Irish border trade and tells the French customs to "cut them some slack"... That would look like a win for the Foreign Office, for once.
Knock it off, Boris.
Laschet is uninspiring, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the CDU/CSU chancellor candidate ends up being Söder who people seem to like more.
Spahn might have to lie low for a while. He should be finished really. I know someone who had his sleeve rolled up ready to get his AZ shot who was then told he couldn't have it because AZ was being suspended. He was "I don't care, just give me the vaccine!" but they couldn't, and all the people waiting were sent home. It's only going to take Bild splashing on a grieving family in 3 weeks time of someone who died of Covid who had a cancelled appointment for things to get quite dicey for Spahn.
Meanwhile, I expect that they will resume AZ in Germany today with some extra paperwork to sign saying "yes I understand I might die of a rare blood clot" it should add "like every other medicine you can take" but won't. On a personal note I suppose it might make it quicker for me to get vaccinated if lots of people then decide to wait to get a different vaccine... but what a fuckup.
Or it could just all be expectations management. Or simply somebody somewhere along the line made a miscalculation on supply versus need (most likely explanation...)
But I offer it up to the powers that be as a route out, if as you expect they haven't go that far in their unjoined thinking....