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Rishi now leading Boris as “Most capable PM” – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited March 17 in General
imageRishi now leading Boris as “Most capable PM” – politicalbetting.com

For ,me the poll finding of the day is this from Ipsos – a question that is rarely asked – Who would make the “most capable PM” when the options are the incumbent and his Chancellor.

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • TazTaz Posts: 52
    Aye up.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 2,908
    First? (Unlike the EU)
  • TazTaz Posts: 52
    First again !
  • TazTaz Posts: 52
    Chameleon said:

    First? (Unlike the EU)

    Must have pipped you by a nano second.

    The EU are inept on the vaccines. Hard, as a remainer, to defend them.

    Rishi is our next PM I suspect. Can’t see Boris going the full term.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,058
    4th.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,058
    https://twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/1372292298420146183

    Time for House of Lords to do its job of quietly fixing shite/dangerous Commons legislation?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,798
    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 2,908
    edited March 17
    Taz said:

    Chameleon said:

    First? (Unlike the EU)

    Must have pipped you by a nano second.

    The EU are inept on the vaccines. Hard, as a remainer, to defend them.

    Rishi is our next PM I suspect. Can’t see Boris going the full term.
    To paraphrase The Thick of It: everyone loves you when you're shitting money. I agree with the latter statement though.
  • isamisam Posts: 35,492

    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1372206458784337922?s=21

    How would it work though? I thought it would only be possible to do so with social housing. Surely they can’t prevent people from buying houses and living where they like?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,732
    Music interlude

    A wonderful rendition of Hallelujah by a little 10 yr old autistic girl from Northern Ireland first recorded a few yrs back. I think its mesmeric. The tune is the same, the words have been changed.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,732

    Music interlude

    A wonderful rendition of Hallelujah by a little 10 yr old autistic girl from Northern Ireland first recorded a few yrs back. I think its mesmeric. The tune is the same, the words have been changed.

    Oops here is the link

    https://youtu.be/Bmx--WjeN7o
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,798
    Assuming that things get any better in May of course.

    One crumb of comfort: it is now reported that shielding will end in England on April 1st (in line with previous advice from Drakefordland.)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,943
    kinabalu said:

    Sunak beats Johnson but Johnson beats Starmer by more than Sunak does.

    Touch of the scissors stone paper there.

    Free money with no strings, I find, goes down well with voters.
  • isamisam Posts: 35,492
    edited March 17
    kinabalu said:

    Sunak beats Johnson but Johnson beats Starmer by more than Sunak does.

    Touch of the scissors stone paper there.

    I would have thought the main take was Starmer can’t beat the PM or the man most likely to replace him
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
    Doesn't sound like we will have "4-5m first jabs in April" tho?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
    Doesn't sound like we will have "4-5m first jabs in April" tho?
    We'll have to wait and see. I just don't see how we don't do some number of Novavax and Moderna. They'll be sitting in the fridge otherwise. The only thing I could say is that the NHS probably won't incorporate Novavax into its supply chain until it receives MHRA approval so it could be an odd situation of them saying not very much and then when it gets approved suddenly there's loads of new doses available.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727
    The EU getting more bad press in Oz

    "Doctors fear Europe's Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine bans have 'cost lives' and could have consequences for the world"

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-18/astrazeneca-vaccine-ban-costs-lives-as-europe-faces-another-wave/13255292?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    Taz said:

    Chameleon said:

    First? (Unlike the EU)

    Must have pipped you by a nano second.

    The EU are inept on the vaccines. Hard, as a remainer, to defend them.

    Rishi is our next PM I suspect. Can’t see Boris going the full term.
    As I keep saying, it's an Excession moment.

    In the Ian Banks novel of that name, the totally progressive, hip, chilled out society of benevolent, bi-sexual space communists encounter something unique.

    Something that re-introduces the concept of *scarcity*. In their society, this is a big deal since they can make almost anything at zero cost of production.

    In about a nano-second, the God-like AIs that rule this society are fighting, lying, cheating, murdering and generally acting like monkeys in a salad bar...

    The point being it's easy to be nice when life is easy.

    The great philosopher John Whorfin said - "History is made at night. Character is what you are in the dark."

    Perhaps he should have said "Character is what you are when the other monkey has the only banana".
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426
    On Supplies it seems to me a little bit simply expectation management. The commitment had been to get all over 50s booked for first doses by end April and all over 70s for second doses by end April too. That was then brought forward by a fortnight for the over 50s, but the second doses still need doing and have barely been touched yet.

    Giving a first dose to two people instead of one was far more effective use of a limited resource, but due to differential risks giving a second dose to an 80 year old probably has more of an impact than a first to a healthy forty year old.

    The all over 50s target looks like its been smashed with nearly a month to spare. Obviously the slots need booking in and doing, but could it just be a case of calming expectations for a couple of weeks while the second doses get ramped up?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,798
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
    All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.

    Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426
    On Topic while I have 5000 reasons for wanting Sunak to become PM, that differential between Johnson and Sunak is miniscule. So too is the lead for Sunak over Starmer with a lot of unknowns. On the other hand Johnson has a massive lead over Starmer.

    That combination is illogical. The only thing that squares that circle is that anti-Tories, Labour voters etc are saying Sunak as an anti-Johnson vote, but saying Starmer against Sunak.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,847
    edited March 17

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
    All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.

    Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
    We ought to hit the 'more or less back to normal' threshold when herd immunity kicks in. Somewhere between 60-70% with either prior infection or vaccine.

    We are actually probably not that far away from 60% on that measure. 2 more weeks?

    Getting back to normal is seen as unexpected now. But I really don't think it is that far away.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426

    https://twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/1372292298420146183

    Time for House of Lords to do its job of quietly fixing shite/dangerous Commons legislation?

    Or the Commons to do its job too?

    That was only Second Reading wasn't it? Most of the bill seems decent but that is dangerously illiberal. An MP rebellion leading leading to an amendment would be a good thing here before it even reaches the Lords - a rebellion doesn't even need to win, just be serious enough that a compromise amendment is reached.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 2,494

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    I imagine that it's similar to the EU problem; AZ were expecting/hoping/claiming to be producing way more vaccine by now than has turned out to be possible.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 15,837
    isam said:


    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1372206458784337922?s=21

    How would it work though? I thought it would only be possible to do so with social housing. Surely they can’t prevent people from buying houses and living where they like?

    Disclose.tv is on a list of fake news websites

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fake_news_websites

    and this appears to be an example - I've had a look through the Danish press and there's no reference to it. As you say, it wouldn't be very praft5ical, regardless of whether it was a good idea or not.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,058
    edited March 17
    deleted
  • RattersRatters Posts: 80
    I think people are forgetting that April is when we really need to ramp up second vaccinations to stay within the 10-12 week window. "Just" doing second vaccinations requires us to keep vaccinating at a similar pace to what we have been - ignoring the likely increase over the last two weeks of March.

    Disappointing of course that we can't keep first jabs at a similar rate, but I always thought that was optimistic (would require consistent supply of 5m+ per week). Instead, it seems we're taking a pause in moving down the age groups, focussing on delivering second jabs to the most vulnerable and catching up anyone missed. I don't think it will have a big impact on the end result, albeit I can understand being disappointed if you're 49.

    As Moderna and Norovax supply comes in, the government can confidently provide all does to under 50s without potentially risking second doses for the more vulnerable. Plus, the second jabs needed in May will be lower as we had a relative lull over the last few weeks.

    I still think everyone will be offered a first vaccination by the end of June at the latest. Don't panic.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,402
    Not much sign of a Covid dent in turnout..
    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/1372261995668443136?s=21
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    That they're not telling us doesn't make them useless. Its a confidential matter between suppliers and the government - in a heated environment where our nearest neighbours are acting in a hostile manner threatening our imports.

    Discretion is the better part of valour here, not being useless.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727

    deleted

    That report is pretty clear. India was meant to deliver 10m jabs, instead we've got 5m. That's it
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,092
    If Wales is typical in terms of group 6 size there's ~ 10 million vaccinations to go UK wide to get through G1-9 assuming 95% takeup in each group.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 19,861

    kinabalu said:

    Sunak beats Johnson but Johnson beats Starmer by more than Sunak does.

    Touch of the scissors stone paper there.

    Free money with no strings, I find, goes down well with voters.
    Indeed. Let's see how this looks when the tide goes out.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426
    kinabalu said:

    Sunak beats Johnson but Johnson beats Starmer by more than Sunak does.

    Touch of the scissors stone paper there.

    If it was true scissors, stone, paper then Starmer would have had to beat someone. Sunak wins both his rounds, Starmer loses both of his.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,058
    Leon said:

    deleted

    That report is pretty clear. India was meant to deliver 10m jabs, instead we've got 5m. That's it
    If we wanted to behave like the EU we could block all our imports to India.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
    All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.

    Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
    For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.

    In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.

    The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
    All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.

    Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
    For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.

    In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.

    The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
    Max, do you know how much vax the AZ labs in the UK can produce? Their production is fine, they say. So we will still have that supply, uninterrupted
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 19,861
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sunak beats Johnson but Johnson beats Starmer by more than Sunak does.

    Touch of the scissors stone paper there.

    I would have thought the main take was Starmer can’t beat the PM or the man most likely to replace him
    My strong feeling is that Starmer has a good chance against any Con leader bar Johnson. Unfortunately my equally strong feeling is that Johnson will be there for the next election.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 3,137

    On Topic while I have 5000 reasons for wanting Sunak to become PM, that differential between Johnson and Sunak is miniscule. So too is the lead for Sunak over Starmer with a lot of unknowns. On the other hand Johnson has a massive lead over Starmer.

    That combination is illogical. The only thing that squares that circle is that anti-Tories, Labour voters etc are saying Sunak as an anti-Johnson vote, but saying Starmer against Sunak.

    Yes, you'd have expected the results to be transitive, and it's confusing that they're not.

    I think your explanation is sound.
  • isamisam Posts: 35,492

    isam said:


    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1372206458784337922?s=21

    How would it work though? I thought it would only be possible to do so with social housing. Surely they can’t prevent people from buying houses and living where they like?

    Disclose.tv is on a list of fake news websites

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fake_news_websites

    and this appears to be an example - I've had a look through the Danish press and there's no reference to it. As you say, it wouldn't be very praft5ical, regardless of whether it was a good idea or not.
    https://twitter.com/sanksp/status/1372265630620082178?s=21
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 40,951
    Leon said:

    The EU getting more bad press in Oz

    "Doctors fear Europe's Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine bans have 'cost lives' and could have consequences for the world"

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-18/astrazeneca-vaccine-ban-costs-lives-as-europe-faces-another-wave/13255292?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    It's fascinating to see how the EU's current behaviour could ratfuck its geopolitical position, though.

    Previously, the EU had hopes of an Australia-EU deal that would be of moderate but reasonable ambition; a bit like CETA. Even post Brexit there was some hope that'd be prioritised over a Australia-UK deal because Single Market.

    Now, a Australia-UK deal is steaming ahead, and likely to be far deeper in scope, whereas Australia increasingly couldn't give a toss about the EU - even if it foregos a bit of convenient market access in the process. Just not worth it.

    Meanwhile the EU increasingly accommodates Russia and China, and pisses off its natural allies. If it carries on down its current path it will become an insular inward-looking bloc, which doesn't export any of its model, where its geopolitics are dictated by China and Russia, which is routinely circumvented by the USA and ignored by just about everyone else.

    If it doesn't want that to happen it must stop the twattery and work constructively with the UK, and everyone else.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 19,861

    kinabalu said:

    Sunak beats Johnson but Johnson beats Starmer by more than Sunak does.

    Touch of the scissors stone paper there.

    If it was true scissors, stone, paper then Starmer would have had to beat someone. Sunak wins both his rounds, Starmer loses both of his.
    Yes but you know what I mean. The Johnson match up is particularly bad for him. Bit like Federer could never beat Nadal until he got a bigger racquet and changed his backhand. So possible lesson for Starmer there.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
    All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.

    Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
    For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.

    In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.

    The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
    Max, do you know how much vax the AZ labs in the UK can produce? Their production is fine, they say. So we will still have that supply, uninterrupted
    From what I understand around 10-12m per month right now but remember that doses we expect in April were actually produced in January or February at some point and are going through the fill and finish process now and then will be certified before being released for dispatch to be used in April.

    It's not so much a production issue for the active ingredient as it is everything else to do with it, glassware, fill and finish, bottle caps, all of this is in huge demand globally and it's led to shortages. That's what all of the vaccine makers are up against. Honestly it's a miracle we've done as many vaccinations as we have in this country. Until the VTF the UK was a non-entity for vaccines.
  • isamisam Posts: 35,492
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sunak beats Johnson but Johnson beats Starmer by more than Sunak does.

    Touch of the scissors stone paper there.

    If it was true scissors, stone, paper then Starmer would have had to beat someone. Sunak wins both his rounds, Starmer loses both of his.
    Yes but you know what I mean. The Johnson match up is particularly bad for him. Bit like Federer could never beat Nadal until he got a bigger racquet and changed his backhand. So possible lesson for Starmer there.
    “Stop doing Ed Miliband impressions, and blow your nose” would be good advice for starters
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,562

    RISHI NOW LEADING BORIS AS “MOST CAPABLE PM” yells the header.

    This is statistically illiterate.

    Rishi 42 %, Boris 41 % is not a lead.

    The error on each measurement exceeds the difference. The same is true of Rishi 39 %, SKS 37 %.

    The only significant finding here is the 10 % gap between Boris and SKS. Boris 47 %, SKS 37 %.

    It hurts, I know, but Boris has the beating of SKS. This poll confirms what a number of us have been saying.

    I don't suppose Labour will listen, as usual.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,199
    Has Leon called for the carpet bombing of the European mainland yet?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,943
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sunak beats Johnson but Johnson beats Starmer by more than Sunak does.

    Touch of the scissors stone paper there.

    I would have thought the main take was Starmer can’t beat the PM or the man most likely to replace him
    My strong feeling is that Starmer has a good chance against any Con leader bar Johnson. Unfortunately my equally strong feeling is that Johnson will be there for the next election.
    Johnson will fall out of favour at some point. I suspect (like Blair before him) the fall will be dramatic and swift.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 3,137

    isam said:


    https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1372206458784337922?s=21

    How would it work though? I thought it would only be possible to do so with social housing. Surely they can’t prevent people from buying houses and living where they like?

    Disclose.tv is on a list of fake news websites

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fake_news_websites

    and this appears to be an example - I've had a look through the Danish press and there's no reference to it. As you say, it wouldn't be very praft5ical, regardless of whether it was a good idea or not.
    The Guardian are carrying an AFP article of the same story.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/17/denmark-plans-to-limit-non-western-residents-in-disadvantaged-areas
  • CookieCookie Posts: 2,448
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
    All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.

    Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
    For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.

    In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.

    The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
    Max, do you know how much vax the AZ labs in the UK can produce? Their production is fine, they say. So we will still have that supply, uninterrupted
    But presumably that's all going on second jabs now.

    My first thought when I heard the news was that again, we are pushing 'back to normal' back a bit further. It's been three or four months away since March last year. But if the situation is as the more level headed posters here say - MaxPB, I salute your indefatigability - then as a 45 year old, well, rather give the oldies their second jabs than give me my first. My parents are in their seventies ans statistically well over twice as vulnerable to it than me - I don't know quite where the balance lies but the priority has to get that generation fully protected. Anyway my wife has had her first jab - she was my main worry.

    I still won't expect back to normal until we actually see it though!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,199
    Full story of Daily Mail Front page,

    Priti Patel eyes radical new plan to send future illegal Channel migrants OVERSEAS to nations such as Turkey to await processing if they arrive in the UK from countries deemed 'safe'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9373855/Priti-Patel-eyes-radical-new-plan-send-future-Channel-migrants-overseas.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,199
    They suggested there was an issue with AstraZeneca’s production overseas, resulting in fewer jabs being delivered in April than initially planned. Last night it was also claimed there were shortages related to the late delivery of five million doses of the AstraZeneca jab being manufactured in India.

    Separately, a Government source said supplies have been disrupted due to a range of ‘production issues’. The source revealed that this included the need to re-test a large batch of the vaccine, although they did not specify from which manufactuer.

    -----

    The fact we are having to import AZN from India suggests that UK production facility still isn't running smoothly.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 1,474
    It's certainly good to see that our newspapers are reporting the jabs slowdown in a calm and non-hyperbolic way.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,562

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sunak beats Johnson but Johnson beats Starmer by more than Sunak does.

    Touch of the scissors stone paper there.

    I would have thought the main take was Starmer can’t beat the PM or the man most likely to replace him
    My strong feeling is that Starmer has a good chance against any Con leader bar Johnson. Unfortunately my equally strong feeling is that Johnson will be there for the next election.
    Johnson will fall out of favour at some point. I suspect (like Blair before him) the fall will be dramatic and swift.
    I think that is true, but the electorate can stay irrational for a long time.

    It took 7 or 8 years before the electorate fell out of love with Tony.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
    All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.

    Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
    For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.

    In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.

    The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
    Max, do you know how much vax the AZ labs in the UK can produce? Their production is fine, they say. So we will still have that supply, uninterrupted
    From what I understand around 10-12m per month right now but remember that doses we expect in April were actually produced in January or February at some point and are going through the fill and finish process now and then will be certified before being released for dispatch to be used in April.

    It's not so much a production issue for the active ingredient as it is everything else to do with it, glassware, fill and finish, bottle caps, all of this is in huge demand globally and it's led to shortages. That's what all of the vaccine makers are up against. Honestly it's a miracle we've done as many vaccinations as we have in this country. Until the VTF the UK was a non-entity for vaccines.
    Interesting ta.

    This Guardian story on the slowdown has one hopeful element, tho it is generally negative


    "Some vaccinations for people under 50 could potentially still go ahead from mid-April, when the UK is also expecting to start receiving supplies of the Moderna vaccine, subject to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approval process."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/17/nhs-covid-vaccine-rollout-under-50s-delayed-major-shortage
  • YokesYokes Posts: 600

    Full story of Daily Mail Front page,

    Priti Patel eyes radical new plan to send future illegal Channel migrants OVERSEAS to nations such as Turkey to await processing if they arrive in the UK from countries deemed 'safe'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9373855/Priti-Patel-eyes-radical-new-plan-send-future-Channel-migrants-overseas.html

    Ah the UK media mantra stays true 'If you aren't terrified, we aren't doing our jobs'
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,798

    They suggested there was an issue with AstraZeneca’s production overseas, resulting in fewer jabs being delivered in April than initially planned. Last night it was also claimed there were shortages related to the late delivery of five million doses of the AstraZeneca jab being manufactured in India.

    Separately, a Government source said supplies have been disrupted due to a range of ‘production issues’. The source revealed that this included the need to re-test a large batch of the vaccine, although they did not specify from which manufactuer.

    -----

    The fact we are having to import AZN from India suggests that UK production facility still isn't running smoothly.

    Not necessarily. There's nothing to stop the Government from buying additional imports even if domestic production is at full capacity - indeed, if the opportunity existed you would expect them to take it. We all appreciate by now that a vast oversupply is preferably, under these circumstances, to parsimony.

    If that's what's happened then clearly events have conspired to derail the plan, but it doesn't mean that it wasn't worth trying.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,199

    It's certainly good to see that our newspapers are reporting the jabs slowdown in a calm and non-hyperbolic way.

    Time to crack out the 2019 GE meme....


  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,092
    edited March 17
    Assuming a 10 week vaccine gap (Which more closely maps the real world compared to the 12 week) we need 345,000 second doses a day from now till the end of April.
    150,000 first doses a day gets us to 32 million by the end of April which I think is broadly the G1-9 target.

    So basically it's a combination of second doses catching up with us in large numbers and a supply squeeze back to ~ 3.5 million a week.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,009
    edited March 17
    ...
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,009
    edited March 17
    ...
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,009

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    That they're not telling us doesn't make them useless. Its a confidential matter between suppliers and the government - in a heated environment where our nearest neighbours are acting in a hostile manner threatening our imports.

    Discretion is the better part of valour here, not being useless.
    For me this is the key point. The British public does not need to know the confidential supply details, and to discuss publically cannot help further supplies
  • CookieCookie Posts: 2,448

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sunak beats Johnson but Johnson beats Starmer by more than Sunak does.

    Touch of the scissors stone paper there.

    I would have thought the main take was Starmer can’t beat the PM or the man most likely to replace him
    My strong feeling is that Starmer has a good chance against any Con leader bar Johnson. Unfortunately my equally strong feeling is that Johnson will be there for the next election.
    Johnson will fall out of favour at some point. I suspect (like Blair before him) the fall will be dramatic and swift.
    I think that is true, but the electorate can stay irrational for a long time.

    It took 7 or 8 years before the electorate fell out of love with Tony.
    It would be interesting to see some stats on that. My impression was always that love for Tony in the early years was much less than commonly supposed, and hatred for him in the later years was also much less than commonly supposed. The media and cultural commentatora loved him, then fell out of love, but I think the country as a whole was more consistent. Perhaps.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,437
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,058
    Some trouble brewing in @NickPalmer old patch of Broxtowe with Con MP staff member.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,528
    Pulpstar said:

    Assuming a 10 week vaccine gap (Which more closely maps the real world compared to the 12 week) we need 345,000 second doses a day from now till the end of April.
    150,000 first doses a day gets us to 32 million by the end of April which I think is broadly the G1-9 target.

    So basically it's a combination of second doses catching up with us in large numbers and a supply squeeze back to ~ 3.5 million a week.

    3.5m a week is 500k per day.

    Which is rather more than has been achieved in any single week.

    So hardly a 'supply squeeze'.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,437

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    That they're not telling us doesn't make them useless. Its a confidential matter between suppliers and the government - in a heated environment where our nearest neighbours are acting in a hostile manner threatening our imports.

    Discretion is the better part of valour here, not being useless.
    +1

    There will be confidentiality clauses in the contracts, and the government will be keen to avoid breaking them.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,009
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
    All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.

    Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
    For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.

    In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.

    The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
    Max, do you know how much vax the AZ labs in the UK can produce? Their production is fine, they say. So we will still have that supply, uninterrupted
    From what I understand around 10-12m per month right now but remember that doses we expect in April were actually produced in January or February at some point and are going through the fill and finish process now and then will be certified before being released for dispatch to be used in April.

    It's not so much a production issue for the active ingredient as it is everything else to do with it, glassware, fill and finish, bottle caps, all of this is in huge demand globally and it's led to shortages. That's what all of the vaccine makers are up against. Honestly it's a miracle we've done as many vaccinations as we have in this country. Until the VTF the UK was a non-entity for vaccines.
    Interesting ta.

    This Guardian story on the slowdown has one hopeful element, tho it is generally negative


    "Some vaccinations for people under 50 could potentially still go ahead from mid-April, when the UK is also expecting to start receiving supplies of the Moderna vaccine, subject to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approval process."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/17/nhs-covid-vaccine-rollout-under-50s-delayed-major-shortage
    Indeed, I'm honestly completely relaxed about the situation. These kinds of production issues were bound to happen, that they're happening when we're through the most important part of the scheme that allows us to unlockdown is a great. Imagine if this slowdown had hit us in February rather than April, we'd have missed all of the JCVI targets, groups 1-4 would still be ongoing and we'd be looking at beginning unlockdown in May or June rather than April. My main goals are to be able to meet my friends, go for a drink, go to a restaurant and so on. Whether or not I've personally been vaccinated is irrelevant for these goals.

    When we take into account Moderna and Novavax arriving in April there is literally no need for this doom and gloom, the situation for under 50s remains unchanged.
    I got my vaccine today - I think I am low on group 6. The doom and gloom is lost hope. Whilst we can still unlockdown, as I stood watching people leave ahead of me you could see in some the weight lifted.

    I agree that we should probably still proceed quickly and we have all the systems in place and a willing population - surely the most important elements
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
    All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.

    Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
    For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.

    In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.

    The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
    Max, do you know how much vax the AZ labs in the UK can produce? Their production is fine, they say. So we will still have that supply, uninterrupted
    From what I understand around 10-12m per month right now but remember that doses we expect in April were actually produced in January or February at some point and are going through the fill and finish process now and then will be certified before being released for dispatch to be used in April.

    It's not so much a production issue for the active ingredient as it is everything else to do with it, glassware, fill and finish, bottle caps, all of this is in huge demand globally and it's led to shortages. That's what all of the vaccine makers are up against. Honestly it's a miracle we've done as many vaccinations as we have in this country. Until the VTF the UK was a non-entity for vaccines.
    Interesting ta.

    This Guardian story on the slowdown has one hopeful element, tho it is generally negative


    "Some vaccinations for people under 50 could potentially still go ahead from mid-April, when the UK is also expecting to start receiving supplies of the Moderna vaccine, subject to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approval process."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/17/nhs-covid-vaccine-rollout-under-50s-delayed-major-shortage
    Indeed, I'm honestly completely relaxed about the situation. These kinds of production issues were bound to happen, that they're happening when we're through the most important part of the scheme that allows us to unlockdown is a great. Imagine if this slowdown had hit us in February rather than April, we'd have missed all of the JCVI targets, groups 1-4 would still be ongoing and we'd be looking at beginning unlockdown in May or June rather than April. My main goals are to be able to meet my friends, go for a drink, go to a restaurant and so on. Whether or not I've personally been vaccinated is irrelevant for these goals.

    When we take into account Moderna and Novavax arriving in April there is literally no need for this doom and gloom, the situation for under 50s remains unchanged.
    And if Moderna kicks in that quick, the terrible slowdown will only be for two weeks, end March to mid April.

    Doomsday averted

    However I can forgive anyone for lapsing into gloom and despair. We’ve all basically been in jail - an open prison - FOR A YEAR. For that same year we have seen promises offered then snatched away, lockdowns ending only to resume, viruses beaten only for new variants to confound us. And all of this played to a soundtrack of death, suffering, chaos, impoverishment and disease.

    It’s been the worst year for humanity since the Second World War, and it now stretches into a 2nd year.

    Feeling a bit blue, from time to time, is excusable
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,058
    I see Patel's leadership campaign rolls on.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,528
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
    All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.

    Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
    For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.

    In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.

    The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
    Max, do you know how much vax the AZ labs in the UK can produce? Their production is fine, they say. So we will still have that supply, uninterrupted
    From what I understand around 10-12m per month right now but remember that doses we expect in April were actually produced in January or February at some point and are going through the fill and finish process now and then will be certified before being released for dispatch to be used in April.

    It's not so much a production issue for the active ingredient as it is everything else to do with it, glassware, fill and finish, bottle caps, all of this is in huge demand globally and it's led to shortages. That's what all of the vaccine makers are up against. Honestly it's a miracle we've done as many vaccinations as we have in this country. Until the VTF the UK was a non-entity for vaccines.
    Interesting ta.

    This Guardian story on the slowdown has one hopeful element, tho it is generally negative


    "Some vaccinations for people under 50 could potentially still go ahead from mid-April, when the UK is also expecting to start receiving supplies of the Moderna vaccine, subject to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approval process."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/17/nhs-covid-vaccine-rollout-under-50s-delayed-major-shortage
    Indeed, I'm honestly completely relaxed about the situation. These kinds of production issues were bound to happen, that they're happening when we're through the most important part of the scheme that allows us to unlockdown is a great. Imagine if this slowdown had hit us in February rather than April, we'd have missed all of the JCVI targets, groups 1-4 would still be ongoing and we'd be looking at beginning unlockdown in May or June rather than April. My main goals are to be able to meet my friends, go for a drink, go to a restaurant and so on. Whether or not I've personally been vaccinated is irrelevant for these goals.

    When we take into account Moderna and Novavax arriving in April there is literally no need for this doom and gloom, the situation for under 50s remains unchanged.
    Quite.

    The same people panicking now, are the same people who considered getting half the adult population vaccinated by the middle of March inconceivable.

    What's astonishing is that we are where we are, with little likelihood the virus will run out of control again, and with massive supplies of vaccines coming in the next few months.

    I think some posters on this site are just addicted to bad news.
    The 15m vaccinated by 15/02 target was criticized for being wildly ambitious by many PBers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,695

    They suggested there was an issue with AstraZeneca’s production overseas, resulting in fewer jabs being delivered in April than initially planned. Last night it was also claimed there were shortages related to the late delivery of five million doses of the AstraZeneca jab being manufactured in India.

    Separately, a Government source said supplies have been disrupted due to a range of ‘production issues’. The source revealed that this included the need to re-test a large batch of the vaccine, although they did not specify from which manufactuer.

    -----

    The fact we are having to import AZN from India suggests that UK production facility still isn't running smoothly.

    If the retest of the batch proves there was no issue, presumably those are back in the frame?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,092
    Our demand is likely a good deal higher than almost anywhere else - which of course is a good thing but does mean it'll take longer to get through everyone...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
    All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.

    Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
    For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.

    In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.

    The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
    Max, do you know how much vax the AZ labs in the UK can produce? Their production is fine, they say. So we will still have that supply, uninterrupted
    From what I understand around 10-12m per month right now but remember that doses we expect in April were actually produced in January or February at some point and are going through the fill and finish process now and then will be certified before being released for dispatch to be used in April.

    It's not so much a production issue for the active ingredient as it is everything else to do with it, glassware, fill and finish, bottle caps, all of this is in huge demand globally and it's led to shortages. That's what all of the vaccine makers are up against. Honestly it's a miracle we've done as many vaccinations as we have in this country. Until the VTF the UK was a non-entity for vaccines.
    Interesting ta.

    This Guardian story on the slowdown has one hopeful element, tho it is generally negative


    "Some vaccinations for people under 50 could potentially still go ahead from mid-April, when the UK is also expecting to start receiving supplies of the Moderna vaccine, subject to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approval process."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/17/nhs-covid-vaccine-rollout-under-50s-delayed-major-shortage
    Indeed, I'm honestly completely relaxed about the situation. These kinds of production issues were bound to happen, that they're happening when we're through the most important part of the scheme that allows us to unlockdown is a great. Imagine if this slowdown had hit us in February rather than April, we'd have missed all of the JCVI targets, groups 1-4 would still be ongoing and we'd be looking at beginning unlockdown in May or June rather than April. My main goals are to be able to meet my friends, go for a drink, go to a restaurant and so on. Whether or not I've personally been vaccinated is irrelevant for these goals.

    When we take into account Moderna and Novavax arriving in April there is literally no need for this doom and gloom, the situation for under 50s remains unchanged.
    Quite.

    The same people panicking now, are the same people who considered getting half the adult population vaccinated by the middle of March inconceivable.

    What's astonishing is that we are where we are, with little likelihood the virus will run out of control again, and with massive supplies of vaccines coming in the next few months.

    I think some posters on this site are just addicted to bad news.
    Yes, and by the April unlockdown date we're going to be at around 6-8m people of groups 1-4 that have had both doses. This will give them almost total protection from hospitalisation and death, by the end of April all of groups 1-4 will have gone from 80% protection from hospitalisation to almost 100% protection. That alone means we're not going to see any big surge for our hospitals for the May unlockdown. What happens with under 50s isn't particularly relevant from a national point of view. I understand that people, including me, would like the certainty of knowing when it's our turn but in the near term I'm going to enjoy the pub a month from now, I'm going to enjoy my haircut in just over 3 weeks and I can't wait to go to my first BBQ of the year at my mate's place.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 11,012
    edited March 17

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sunak beats Johnson but Johnson beats Starmer by more than Sunak does.

    Touch of the scissors stone paper there.

    I would have thought the main take was Starmer can’t beat the PM or the man most likely to replace him
    My strong feeling is that Starmer has a good chance against any Con leader bar Johnson. Unfortunately my equally strong feeling is that Johnson will be there for the next election.
    Johnson will fall out of favour at some point. I suspect (like Blair before him) the fall will be dramatic and swift.
    I think that is true, but the electorate can stay irrational for a long time.

    It took 7 or 8 years before the electorate fell out of love with Tony.
    Longer than that. He won 're election in 2005.
    Was PM in waiting from 1994.
    I reckon he would have won in 2010 too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
    All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.

    Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
    For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.

    In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.

    The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
    Max, do you know how much vax the AZ labs in the UK can produce? Their production is fine, they say. So we will still have that supply, uninterrupted
    From what I understand around 10-12m per month right now but remember that doses we expect in April were actually produced in January or February at some point and are going through the fill and finish process now and then will be certified before being released for dispatch to be used in April.

    It's not so much a production issue for the active ingredient as it is everything else to do with it, glassware, fill and finish, bottle caps, all of this is in huge demand globally and it's led to shortages. That's what all of the vaccine makers are up against. Honestly it's a miracle we've done as many vaccinations as we have in this country. Until the VTF the UK was a non-entity for vaccines.
    Interesting ta.

    This Guardian story on the slowdown has one hopeful element, tho it is generally negative


    "Some vaccinations for people under 50 could potentially still go ahead from mid-April, when the UK is also expecting to start receiving supplies of the Moderna vaccine, subject to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approval process."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/17/nhs-covid-vaccine-rollout-under-50s-delayed-major-shortage
    Indeed, I'm honestly completely relaxed about the situation. These kinds of production issues were bound to happen, that they're happening when we're through the most important part of the scheme that allows us to unlockdown is a great. Imagine if this slowdown had hit us in February rather than April, we'd have missed all of the JCVI targets, groups 1-4 would still be ongoing and we'd be looking at beginning unlockdown in May or June rather than April. My main goals are to be able to meet my friends, go for a drink, go to a restaurant and so on. Whether or not I've personally been vaccinated is irrelevant for these goals.

    When we take into account Moderna and Novavax arriving in April there is literally no need for this doom and gloom, the situation for under 50s remains unchanged.
    Quite.

    The same people panicking now, are the same people who considered getting half the adult population vaccinated by the middle of March inconceivable.

    What's astonishing is that we are where we are, with little likelihood the virus will run out of control again, and with massive supplies of vaccines coming in the next few months.

    I think some posters on this site are just addicted to bad news.
    You’re sitting in sunny California, and you go skiing at weekends. Also your vaccine supply is assured.

    That life looks utterly inconceivable from still-wintry London, where everything and everywhere is shut. Now our vaccine supply looks iffy. And our neighbours, in Europe, are having a psychotic breakdown, threatening to steal what vaccines we DO have

    We are allowed to be a little more anxious
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,437
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
    All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.

    Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
    For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.

    In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.

    The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
    Max, do you know how much vax the AZ labs in the UK can produce? Their production is fine, they say. So we will still have that supply, uninterrupted
    From what I understand around 10-12m per month right now but remember that doses we expect in April were actually produced in January or February at some point and are going through the fill and finish process now and then will be certified before being released for dispatch to be used in April.

    It's not so much a production issue for the active ingredient as it is everything else to do with it, glassware, fill and finish, bottle caps, all of this is in huge demand globally and it's led to shortages. That's what all of the vaccine makers are up against. Honestly it's a miracle we've done as many vaccinations as we have in this country. Until the VTF the UK was a non-entity for vaccines.
    Interesting ta.

    This Guardian story on the slowdown has one hopeful element, tho it is generally negative


    "Some vaccinations for people under 50 could potentially still go ahead from mid-April, when the UK is also expecting to start receiving supplies of the Moderna vaccine, subject to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approval process."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/17/nhs-covid-vaccine-rollout-under-50s-delayed-major-shortage
    Indeed, I'm honestly completely relaxed about the situation. These kinds of production issues were bound to happen, that they're happening when we're through the most important part of the scheme that allows us to unlockdown is a great. Imagine if this slowdown had hit us in February rather than April, we'd have missed all of the JCVI targets, groups 1-4 would still be ongoing and we'd be looking at beginning unlockdown in May or June rather than April. My main goals are to be able to meet my friends, go for a drink, go to a restaurant and so on. Whether or not I've personally been vaccinated is irrelevant for these goals.

    When we take into account Moderna and Novavax arriving in April there is literally no need for this doom and gloom, the situation for under 50s remains unchanged.
    Quite.

    The same people panicking now, are the same people who considered getting half the adult population vaccinated by the middle of March inconceivable.

    What's astonishing is that we are where we are, with little likelihood the virus will run out of control again, and with massive supplies of vaccines coming in the next few months.

    I think some posters on this site are just addicted to bad news.
    You’re sitting in sunny California, and you go skiing at weekends. Also your vaccine supply is assured.

    That life looks utterly inconceivable from still-wintry London, where everything and everywhere is shut. Now our vaccine supply looks iffy. And our neighbours, in Europe, are having a psychotic breakdown, threatening to steal what vaccines we DO have

    We are allowed to be a little more anxious
    Skiing this weekend in Tahoe was awesome. Fabulous weather, everything beginning to reopen and a real air of hope and optimism.

  • isamisam Posts: 35,492
    Maybe it’s because I’ve had other things on my mind, but I don’t even really think about Covid or lockdown anymore. Quite sad I guess
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 183
    Just pondering a counter-factual. What could have happened if we were still in the EU (i.e. no vote to Leave) but had still decided to build our own vaccine supply chain. Would it be easier or harder for the EU to prevent Pfizer jabs being sent to the UK?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,352
    AlistairM said:

    Just pondering a counter-factual. What could have happened if we were still in the EU (i.e. no vote to Leave) but had still decided to build our own vaccine supply chain. Would it be easier or harder for the EU to prevent Pfizer jabs being sent to the UK?

    Harder, verging on impossible.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
    All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.

    Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
    For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.

    In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.

    The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
    Max, do you know how much vax the AZ labs in the UK can produce? Their production is fine, they say. So we will still have that supply, uninterrupted
    From what I understand around 10-12m per month right now but remember that doses we expect in April were actually produced in January or February at some point and are going through the fill and finish process now and then will be certified before being released for dispatch to be used in April.

    It's not so much a production issue for the active ingredient as it is everything else to do with it, glassware, fill and finish, bottle caps, all of this is in huge demand globally and it's led to shortages. That's what all of the vaccine makers are up against. Honestly it's a miracle we've done as many vaccinations as we have in this country. Until the VTF the UK was a non-entity for vaccines.
    Interesting ta.

    This Guardian story on the slowdown has one hopeful element, tho it is generally negative


    "Some vaccinations for people under 50 could potentially still go ahead from mid-April, when the UK is also expecting to start receiving supplies of the Moderna vaccine, subject to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approval process."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/17/nhs-covid-vaccine-rollout-under-50s-delayed-major-shortage
    Indeed, I'm honestly completely relaxed about the situation. These kinds of production issues were bound to happen, that they're happening when we're through the most important part of the scheme that allows us to unlockdown is a great. Imagine if this slowdown had hit us in February rather than April, we'd have missed all of the JCVI targets, groups 1-4 would still be ongoing and we'd be looking at beginning unlockdown in May or June rather than April. My main goals are to be able to meet my friends, go for a drink, go to a restaurant and so on. Whether or not I've personally been vaccinated is irrelevant for these goals.

    When we take into account Moderna and Novavax arriving in April there is literally no need for this doom and gloom, the situation for under 50s remains unchanged.
    And if Moderna kicks in that quick, the terrible slowdown will only be for two weeks, end March to mid April.

    Doomsday averted

    However I can forgive anyone for lapsing into gloom and despair. We’ve all basically been in jail - an open prison - FOR A YEAR. For that same year we have seen promises offered then snatched away, lockdowns ending only to resume, viruses beaten only for new variants to confound us. And all of this played to a soundtrack of death, suffering, chaos, impoverishment and disease.

    It’s been the worst year for humanity since the Second World War, and it now stretches into a 2nd year.

    Feeling a bit blue, from time to time, is excusable
    Yup, and when Novavax is authorised there is a fairly large initial shipment coming from Czechia and ongoing shipments from the Teeside manufacturing. That's expected in April also, but won't be in any of the figures because it hasn't got approval.

    Honestly, this feels like a manufactured panic, perfect timing as well to make it look like our vaccine scheme has also got some issues to the EU even though it hasn't really.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,009
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
    All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.

    Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
    For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.

    In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.

    The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
    Max, do you know how much vax the AZ labs in the UK can produce? Their production is fine, they say. So we will still have that supply, uninterrupted
    From what I understand around 10-12m per month right now but remember that doses we expect in April were actually produced in January or February at some point and are going through the fill and finish process now and then will be certified before being released for dispatch to be used in April.

    It's not so much a production issue for the active ingredient as it is everything else to do with it, glassware, fill and finish, bottle caps, all of this is in huge demand globally and it's led to shortages. That's what all of the vaccine makers are up against. Honestly it's a miracle we've done as many vaccinations as we have in this country. Until the VTF the UK was a non-entity for vaccines.
    Interesting ta.

    This Guardian story on the slowdown has one hopeful element, tho it is generally negative


    "Some vaccinations for people under 50 could potentially still go ahead from mid-April, when the UK is also expecting to start receiving supplies of the Moderna vaccine, subject to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approval process."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/17/nhs-covid-vaccine-rollout-under-50s-delayed-major-shortage
    Indeed, I'm honestly completely relaxed about the situation. These kinds of production issues were bound to happen, that they're happening when we're through the most important part of the scheme that allows us to unlockdown is a great. Imagine if this slowdown had hit us in February rather than April, we'd have missed all of the JCVI targets, groups 1-4 would still be ongoing and we'd be looking at beginning unlockdown in May or June rather than April. My main goals are to be able to meet my friends, go for a drink, go to a restaurant and so on. Whether or not I've personally been vaccinated is irrelevant for these goals.

    When we take into account Moderna and Novavax arriving in April there is literally no need for this doom and gloom, the situation for under 50s remains unchanged.
    Quite.

    The same people panicking now, are the same people who considered getting half the adult population vaccinated by the middle of March inconceivable.

    What's astonishing is that we are where we are, with little likelihood the virus will run out of control again, and with massive supplies of vaccines coming in the next few months.

    I think some posters on this site are just addicted to bad news.
    I've just started listening to a podcast called hidden brain - highly recommended. In the episode called screaming into the void it explains that our brains are addicted to outrage. This explains a lot about social media.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,199
    I presume VDL has been informed of this...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426
    isam said:

    Maybe it’s because I’ve had other things on my mind, but I don’t even really think about Covid or lockdown anymore. Quite sad I guess

    One issue I wonder about now is TV medical dramas coming out, are they going to be all about Covid? You can't really ignore it and be considered serious, but if you write a season all about Covid will it all get a bit depressing?

    Just watched the first episode of the new season of The Good Doctor and it was all about Covid, set in the first few weeks of the crisis, it was very emotional because it is so very real and not abstract like it normally is. Felt emotionally draining by the end of the episode, wouldn't want to 'binge' a series like that, so no idea if the whole season and other shows like Grey's Anatomy etc will be all about Covid too?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086
    AlistairM said:

    Just pondering a counter-factual. What could have happened if we were still in the EU (i.e. no vote to Leave) but had still decided to build our own vaccine supply chain. Would it be easier or harder for the EU to prevent Pfizer jabs being sent to the UK?

    Impossible. The threat would be from the other side with the EU passing some kind of regulation using QMV to ensure any vaccine deliveries within the EU are handed to the EU for equitable distribution. Our scheme within the EU would represent a huge problem, it's a problem for them outside as it makes them look bad. Inside it breaks their "unity and solidarity" which is what the EU needs to keep going from one day to the next.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 11,012
    In return for money.
    How much exactly?
    Given this lot's spaffing tendencies, the Turks will be rubbing their hands.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 4,727
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
    All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.

    Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
    For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.

    In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.

    The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
    Max, do you know how much vax the AZ labs in the UK can produce? Their production is fine, they say. So we will still have that supply, uninterrupted
    From what I understand around 10-12m per month right now but remember that doses we expect in April were actually produced in January or February at some point and are going through the fill and finish process now and then will be certified before being released for dispatch to be used in April.

    It's not so much a production issue for the active ingredient as it is everything else to do with it, glassware, fill and finish, bottle caps, all of this is in huge demand globally and it's led to shortages. That's what all of the vaccine makers are up against. Honestly it's a miracle we've done as many vaccinations as we have in this country. Until the VTF the UK was a non-entity for vaccines.
    Interesting ta.

    This Guardian story on the slowdown has one hopeful element, tho it is generally negative


    "Some vaccinations for people under 50 could potentially still go ahead from mid-April, when the UK is also expecting to start receiving supplies of the Moderna vaccine, subject to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approval process."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/17/nhs-covid-vaccine-rollout-under-50s-delayed-major-shortage
    Indeed, I'm honestly completely relaxed about the situation. These kinds of production issues were bound to happen, that they're happening when we're through the most important part of the scheme that allows us to unlockdown is a great. Imagine if this slowdown had hit us in February rather than April, we'd have missed all of the JCVI targets, groups 1-4 would still be ongoing and we'd be looking at beginning unlockdown in May or June rather than April. My main goals are to be able to meet my friends, go for a drink, go to a restaurant and so on. Whether or not I've personally been vaccinated is irrelevant for these goals.

    When we take into account Moderna and Novavax arriving in April there is literally no need for this doom and gloom, the situation for under 50s remains unchanged.
    Quite.

    The same people panicking now, are the same people who considered getting half the adult population vaccinated by the middle of March inconceivable.

    What's astonishing is that we are where we are, with little likelihood the virus will run out of control again, and with massive supplies of vaccines coming in the next few months.

    I think some posters on this site are just addicted to bad news.
    You’re sitting in sunny California, and you go skiing at weekends. Also your vaccine supply is assured.

    That life looks utterly inconceivable from still-wintry London, where everything and everywhere is shut. Now our vaccine supply looks iffy. And our neighbours, in Europe, are having a psychotic breakdown, threatening to steal what vaccines we DO have

    We are allowed to be a little more anxious
    Skiing this weekend in Tahoe was awesome. Fabulous weather, everything beginning to reopen and a real air of hope and optimism.

    No, that’s not how it works. You’re meant to say ‘oh it’s not that great, we’re still wearing masks, the skiing is sub par’ etc. You don’t boast how ‘awesome’ things are DURING A PLAGUE, especially when your boasts are addressed to your suffering compatriots back home. Tut

    On the other hand, it could be worse. We could all be in Philadelphia

    https://twitter.com/jackposobiec/status/1372317416638808084?s=21
  • TimTTimT Posts: 3,291
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    RH1992 said:
    Feels like a shifting of groups 10 and 11 to the new vaccines and stockpiling AZ for 5-17 year olds at this stage. It's the only thing that makes sense.
    The delays from India theory posted in the previous thread makes more sense. Why, having insisted all along that the priority is to get as many first doses done, as quickly as possible, in order of the vulnerability of the age cohorts to the virus, would you suddenly switch to stockpiling millions and millions of doses to use on children? It's insane.

    Children are almost invulnerable to the virus. You're effectively killing or maiming large numbers of the middle aged, in order to marginally reduce the likelihood of virtually invulnerable eight year olds who have their schooling disrupted by self-isolation (if that's even deemed a necessary inconvenience by September.)

    No, it looks more like the confidence in ample supply amongst some commentators has been overdone, and that the Government expects to enter a genuine bottleneck for a month (or more?) Of course, nobody is sure of the actual explanation because the useless idiots won't tell us.
    Yes, though I'd still say it's better for our age cohort to have the new vaccines so this actually may be a bit of a blessing for people out age. Given the choice I'll take Moderna, Novavax or Pfizer because I won't have to wait 12 weeks to get the second dose to reach the 90%+ efficacy range. If we got AZ in the middle of April it means we wouldn't be fully vaccinated until around early July for certain. If we get one of the other three we could all be done within 6-8 weeks of it starting with both doses done, it's a better timetable even with a much later start. The unlucky people who get their first AZ dose in late July won't be fully immunised until the mid to end of October(!). IMO the government and JCVI need to have a really long think about the use case scenario for AZ during phase 2 (18-49) and holding it back for phase 3 (kids).
    All that being the case, and given that the bulk of protection is derived from the initial injection, I would've thought that the overriding imperative is still to get first doses done as soon as possible if capacity exists. Stockpiling AZ in April because something else (even if it has a shorter gap between shot 1 and shot 2) will be available in May is of no use whatsoever to all the extra people who end up dead or crippled because they didn't get AZ in April.

    Once the entire adult population has been inoculated then we should be more or less back to normal, and remaining incidence of the disease should be very greatly reduced. Any ongoing disruption to education caused by the odd Covid case in one school here and another there because kids haven't had the jab will presumably be a price worth paying to avoid piles of additional corpses.
    For our cohort of under 50s it's not that critical, the individual risk is absolutely tiny and the death rate is basically zero (given that group 6 are all done). In the whole pandemic the number of under 50s with no pre-existing conditions who have died is just a handful, and some of those are not actually COVID deaths because they get registered under the 28 day rule but may have died in a car accident or from something else.

    In any case it doesn't look like the expected AZ shipment is arriving so it is academic, we're all going to get the new vaccines from May onwards. I'll put it to you, would you prefer to get one of the three other vaccines - Moderna, Pfizer or Novavax - which offer 90%+ efficacy with just a 2-4 week gap between doses or AZ which required a 12 week gap to reach the same level of efficacy? I know I'd much rather have one of the other three and then get my vaccine passport rather than be stuck waiting for 12 weeks.

    The 12 week gap for Pfizer was put in place to protect the vulnerable from hospitalisation and death immediately, people under 50 aren't at risk of either so the JCVI can move back to not needing it. I'd rather not have to wait 12 weeks for both of my doses to get my vaccine passport, I'm sure you don't either.
    Max, do you know how much vax the AZ labs in the UK can produce? Their production is fine, they say. So we will still have that supply, uninterrupted
    From what I understand around 10-12m per month right now but remember that doses we expect in April were actually produced in January or February at some point and are going through the fill and finish process now and then will be certified before being released for dispatch to be used in April.

    It's not so much a production issue for the active ingredient as it is everything else to do with it, glassware, fill and finish, bottle caps, all of this is in huge demand globally and it's led to shortages. That's what all of the vaccine makers are up against. Honestly it's a miracle we've done as many vaccinations as we have in this country. Until the VTF the UK was a non-entity for vaccines.
    Interesting ta.

    This Guardian story on the slowdown has one hopeful element, tho it is generally negative


    "Some vaccinations for people under 50 could potentially still go ahead from mid-April, when the UK is also expecting to start receiving supplies of the Moderna vaccine, subject to the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approval process."

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/17/nhs-covid-vaccine-rollout-under-50s-delayed-major-shortage
    Indeed, I'm honestly completely relaxed about the situation. These kinds of production issues were bound to happen, that they're happening when we're through the most important part of the scheme that allows us to unlockdown is a great. Imagine if this slowdown had hit us in February rather than April, we'd have missed all of the JCVI targets, groups 1-4 would still be ongoing and we'd be looking at beginning unlockdown in May or June rather than April. My main goals are to be able to meet my friends, go for a drink, go to a restaurant and so on. Whether or not I've personally been vaccinated is irrelevant for these goals.

    When we take into account Moderna and Novavax arriving in April there is literally no need for this doom and gloom, the situation for under 50s remains unchanged.
    And if Moderna kicks in that quick, the terrible slowdown will only be for two weeks, end March to mid April.

    Doomsday averted

    However I can forgive anyone for lapsing into gloom and despair. We’ve all basically been in jail - an open prison - FOR A YEAR. For that same year we have seen promises offered then snatched away, lockdowns ending only to resume, viruses beaten only for new variants to confound us. And all of this played to a soundtrack of death, suffering, chaos, impoverishment and disease.

    It’s been the worst year for humanity since the Second World War, and it now stretches into a 2nd year.

    Feeling a bit blue, from time to time, is excusable
    Yup, and when Novavax is authorised there is a fairly large initial shipment coming from Czechia and ongoing shipments from the Teeside manufacturing. That's expected in April also, but won't be in any of the figures because it hasn't got approval.

    Honestly, this feels like a manufactured panic, perfect timing as well to make it look like our vaccine scheme has also got some issues to the EU even though it hasn't really.
    Perfect for scaring people into getting vaccinated with whatever is available at the earliest opportunity, though. Part of a clever messaging campaign?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 3,387

    I presume VDL has been informed of this...
    I would hope we don't respond by doing that however a government statement along the lines of

    "We are deeply saddened by the eu actions and while we could reciprocate by blocking raw material supplies we are a moral country that doesn't consider harming eu citizens is right just because their politicians wish to act like jilted lovers"
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