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Ladbrokes make the Tories odds on favourites to take Hartlepool in the first Westminster by-election

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  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    Just back from vaccination centre in Ealing where I had to queue for around half an hour to get the AZN jab. Not feeling as though I’m about to succumb to a blood clot so far ...

    It sounds like turnout was brisk.
    Macron's stupidity didn't seem to do much damage to the reputation of AZ over here, fortunately. We can only hope that public confidence continues to hold.
    And this is why Europeans telling the U.K. to butt out of the discussion can eff off. Public confidence in the U.K. is high but not guaranteed, especially when it is perceived that there are alternatives. The U.K. simply can’t sit back and let the reputation of the vaccine be trashed, and absolutely must make the case, repeatedly, that European Govt’s are being irrational and taking decisions not based on science. And that’s even before you move onto the impact in the rest of the world.
    One gains the impression that the Government feels it must restrain itself from saying very much about the shitstorm across the Channel out of tact. It's much like when the debacle over the mooted suspension of the NI protocol by the Commission erupted and ministers refused to be anything other than emollient.

    I think they're relying on calm and repeated reassurances, which has always done the trick before. However, it might also help if Johnson, Whitty and Valance were rolled out for one of their periodic news conferences on Friday, which would give an additional opportunity to go through the numbers on this.
    One additional problem is that in order to debunk the misinformation about Az, people are drawing attention (by way of comparison) to the figures on adverse effects for other vaccines (Pfizer) as well. Because people don’t realise that “adverse events” doesn’t mean “causal link” it is inevitably creating an environment that is undermining vaccines in general. People see figures showing hundreds of thousands of “adverse events” upto and including hundreds of deaths, and understandably people will get worried.
    While I agree with you sadly it will often be the only way to make people see sense. You can talk to your blue in the face about incidence of clots being less than usual and make no headway.

    Comparing vaccine like for like for side effect will unfortunately push people away from all vaccines but it will also get some people on board with any vaccine.

    It depends I guess on %pushed away altogether vs %now willing to take any approved vaccine
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,202
    Omnium said:

    It's a shame that the first by-election for ages has to happen in a safe Tory seat like Hartlepool...

    ☺ - Yep. But if Labour can somehow win this one the whole movement will be galvanized. It will be like when Ian Poulter sank that putt on the Saturday at the 2012 RC to set up the following day's Miracle at Medinah.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770
    ydoethur said:

    Why did ex-Labour and non-voters in the north switch to the Brexit party in large numbers?

    There seem, from such polling as I have seen, to be three reasons:

    1) Brexit
    2) Labour being led by a racist Britain hating lunatic (I paraphrase)
    3) They voted for Labour for decades and nothing got better.

    So, where do we stand with that?

    1) has happened. Yes, yes, I know it’s a shambles and Johnson and the EU between them keep finding new and egregious ways to screw things up. But that is now a settled issue. Nobody apart possibly from the Greens will be standing on a rejoin platform.

    2) has resolved itself. Corbyn is no longer even a Labour MP. Starmer may be bland but he’s not getting the huge negatives the Jezaster had.

    3) remains salient and will doubtless in light of Darlington etc dominate the campaign for the Tories, along with vaccines.

    But I’m doubtful if hat is salient enough for Brexit former Labour voters to switch to the Tories. More likely they will stay at home now.

    So although the Tories have a decent chance of a gain I think Labour are the value here.

    That said, much depends on the candidate. I agree with @eek that Laura Pidcock will definitely be interested and if, God forbid, she is selected Labour will be lucky to come third.

    Labour voters just ceased to see anything in the Labour offering that represented them.

    Let's take a really hard example - race. Labour like to make it an issue. The Tories like to try not to and try to attend to the problems.

    I wonder if we might see the re-arrival of Balls or DMill? (I'm still not convinced that either of them are still 'Labour')
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/geoffuptonNZ/status/1371859159742824450
    https://images.bfmtv.com/6tPHn3FXpxdR-yvEWMJ6bNDzla0=/0x0:810x485/1160x0/images/Graphique-du-sondage-Elabe-pour-BFMTV-le-16-mars-2021-5-988288.jpg
    Fair play to the French authorities, they've managed to completely destroy the reputation in France of the cheapest, easiest to distribute, and potentially even the (based on UK real world data) best vaccine.

    Twats.

    Yet they want to sue the manufacturer for non delivery.

    Beyond insane.
    When does AZN cancel the contract and sue various European authorities for reputational damage? They clearly are not applying the same standards of 'caution' to all vaccines.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    It's a shame that the first by-election for ages has to happen in a safe Tory seat like Hartlepool...

    ☺ - Yep. But if Labour can somehow win this one the whole movement will be galvanized. It will be like when Ian Poulter sank that putt on the Saturday at the 2012 RC to set up the following day's Miracle at Medinah.
    Gosh labour actually managing to hold a seat will galvanise them....that really is the height of ambition....we will manage to hold seats we already have?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    Floater said:
    Fuck Europe. This what your life could be looking like - if you weren't so intent on fucking over AstraZeneca to protect domestic pharma.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    The Gambling Commission is proposing restricting clients with draconian rules to only losing £100 per month on their betting yet has somehow allowed a fairly obvious ponzi scheme to run off with £100m of client funds.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56401707

    That will kill off most gambling if it goes ahead, and make many businesses unviable.

    Why should the rest of us suffer for a small minority of problem gamblers?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    MaxPB said:

    Floater said:
    The second picture gives me so much hope for May and June. The finish line is in sight, no tricks or misinformation campaigns from Europe will derail us.

    This is definitely one of those moments where I'm very, very happy to be British. I look over at Europe with despair that they're throwing away the chance to have the same great summer we've got lined up by making all of these unforced errors over vaccines.
    Surely though we should keep the lockdown and execute some of uk citizens selected at random so we can show european unity?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,100
    edited March 2021
    The whole AZN fiasco, starting with UVDL but now individual member states following, and indeed deepening the crisis, leaves one wondering just how long before the voters in each state reacts as thousands, even millions, of lives are put at risk

    And yes, to those supporters of the EU this is a PR disaster whether UVDL, or individual states, have both made unbelievable and stupid decisions which are largely political, and certainly not in the interests of their citizens
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Bloody hell.

    Neil Ferguson on BBC News just said that neither he, nor anyone else on SAGE, even considered the idea of closing the borders at the start of the pandemic.

    Why not?

    SAGE clearly didn’t know their onions.
    Even if they took their sweet thyme
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598

    The UN turns round and says "That's nice. But who the fuck are you? We only have membership of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Now bugger off, or we'll have the Catalonians wanting to ratify...."

    Sadly, Boris's shit nukes have given Sturgeon a (very minor) shot in the arm.
    My views on nukes are well known (for not being standard Tory ones!).

    FWIW, I was with Ken Clark on the Iraq war too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    It's a shame that the first by-election for ages has to happen in a safe Tory seat like Hartlepool...

    ☺ - Yep. But if Labour can somehow win this one the whole movement will be galvanized. It will be like when Ian Poulter sank that putt on the Saturday at the 2012 RC to set up the following day's Miracle at Medinah.
    Gosh labour actually managing to hold a seat will galvanise them....that really is the height of ambition....we will manage to hold seats we already have?
    For Labour, given where they have gone to, that is a result.

    That was also the issue facing Hague’s Tories. Remember how pleased they were to hold Uxbridge, which at one time was thought to be a possible by-election gain for Labour. Or to get a small uplift in the vote at Eddisbury.

    I agree it *shouldn’t* be an issue after 11 years in opposition. But they are where they are.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Why did ex-Labour and non-voters in the north switch to the Brexit party in large numbers?

    There seem, from such polling as I have seen, to be three reasons:

    1) Brexit
    2) Labour being led by a racist Britain hating lunatic (I paraphrase)
    3) They voted for Labour for decades and nothing got better.

    So, where do we stand with that?

    1) has happened. Yes, yes, I know it’s a shambles and Johnson and the EU between them keep finding new and egregious ways to screw things up. But that is now a settled issue. Nobody apart possibly from the Greens will be standing on a rejoin platform.

    2) has resolved itself. Corbyn is no longer even a Labour MP. Starmer may be bland but he’s not getting the huge negatives the Jezaster had.

    3) remains salient and will doubtless in light of Darlington etc dominate the campaign for the Tories, along with vaccines.

    But I’m doubtful if hat is salient enough for Brexit former Labour voters to switch to the Tories. More likely they will stay at home now.

    So although the Tories have a decent chance of a gain I think Labour are the value here.

    That said, much depends on the candidate. I agree with @eek that Laura Pidcock will definitely be interested and if, God forbid, she is selected Labour will be lucky to come third.

    Labour voters just ceased to see anything in the Labour offering that represented them.

    Let's take a really hard example - race. Labour like to make it an issue. The Tories like to try not to and try to attend to the problems.

    I wonder if we might see the re-arrival of Balls or DMill? (I'm still not convinced that either of them are still 'Labour')
    It would be great to get Ed Balls back - a real intellectual big beast and a great communicator to boot. However, why would he? He has a burgeoning and lucrative media career, and has his life back.

    He’s a great (award-winning) cook by the way, and knows his wine, which tells you a lot about the measure of the man.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,476
    Floater said:
    I genuinely love the central European tendency to just ffing say what they think. Doesn't matter if I agree with them or not, it's refreshing.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    eek said:

    Problem with being self taught is that you may have picked up all the wrong books and learnt the exact opposite of what you think you've learnt.
    Sounds like he is in good company on PB.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877

    The whole AZN fiasco, starting with UVDL but now individual member states following, and indeed deepening the crisis, leaves one wondering just how long before the voters in each state reacts as thousands, even millions, of lives are put at risk

    And yes, to those supporters of the EU this is a PR disaster whether UVDL, or individual states, have both made unbelievable and stupid decisions which are largely political, and certainly not in the interests of their citizens

    As I said before the fury from eu citizens will come when they see pictures of brits partying after the end of june while they still have to fill out a form to leave the house and deaths are in the 100's
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    Pro_Rata said:

    Well, the arse print is still warm.
    It's a parody account, but also a gentle troll of the EU as not being a "major" multilateral organisation.

    Which it isn't. It only matters as a regulatory superpower. Nothing else.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598

    Have just found out that there will be an actual hustings / selection for Hartlepool.

    Of course they will probably manage to have a shortlist of one.

    Let it be Piddock.

    I reckon she would probably do more harm to Labour by winning and being back in Parliament.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    My view is Hartlepool will swing further to the Tories, and Tice shat the bed for them last time.

    I'd need 40/1 to back Reform. Not far off tempting me at 33/1. Depends on the candidate.

    I'll give you 40/1 if you'd like. £5 maximum though.

    Deal.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    Pro_Rata said:

    Well, the arse print is still warm.
    It's a parody account, but also a gentle troll of the EU as not being a "major" multilateral organisation.

    Which it isn't. It only matters as a regulatory superpower. Nothing else.
    Even that's going to be tested to destruction over the next few years as the UK extricated itself from the EU's regulatory orbit and shows that not only is it possible, but it is also helpful for economic growth.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    ydoethur said:

    Why did ex-Labour and non-voters in the north switch to the Brexit party in large numbers?

    There seem, from such polling as I have seen, to be three reasons:

    1) Brexit
    2) Labour being led by a racist Britain hating lunatic (I paraphrase)
    3) They voted for Labour for decades and nothing got better.

    So, where do we stand with that?

    1) has happened. Yes, yes, I know it’s a shambles and Johnson and the EU between them keep finding new and egregious ways to screw things up. But that is now a settled issue. Nobody apart possibly from the Greens will be standing on a rejoin platform.

    2) has resolved itself. Corbyn is no longer even a Labour MP. Starmer may be bland but he’s not getting the huge negatives the Jezaster had.

    3) remains salient and will doubtless in light of Darlington etc dominate the campaign for the Tories, along with vaccines.

    But I’m doubtful if that is salient enough for Brexit former Labour voters to switch to the Tories. More likely they will stay at home now.

    So although the Tories have a decent chance of a gain I think Labour are the value here.

    That said, much depends on the candidate. I agree with @eek that Laura Pidcock will definitely be interested and if, God forbid, she is selected Labour will be lucky to come third.

    Re: your #3, in parts of US Rust Belt rather similar in some respects to UK Red Wall (depressed, disaffected, White, rural, working class) the collapse of the Democrats to the benefit of the Republicans goes WAY beyond "noting got better".

    We are talking MAJOR economic changes, in which these communities and voters have been net losers, if not in relative terms certainly compared with other part of the nation AND especially their own expectations for themselves AND their children & grandchildren.

    Many of who have moved away, frequently the best & brightest (or at least the hungrier & more determine) thus contributing to electoral transformation by voting with their feet and NOT in local elections.

    In US, this has been battery acid attacking the Democratic Party at its roots - and rocket fuel for Trumpsky and the Putinist wing of the Republican Party.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Have just found out that there will be an actual hustings / selection for Hartlepool.

    Of course they will probably manage to have a shortlist of one.

    According to the timetable we oughtn't to have long to wait to find out. Said exciting Zoom event is scheduled for Friday or Saturday.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052

    Floater said:
    Fuck Europe. This what your life could be looking like - if you weren't so intent on fucking over AstraZeneca to protect domestic pharma.
    It's what this country should be looking like (allowing for the weather) if our government weren't being much too cautious.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Those are amazing scenes from Israel.

    😌
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Why did ex-Labour and non-voters in the north switch to the Brexit party in large numbers?

    There seem, from such polling as I have seen, to be three reasons:

    1) Brexit
    2) Labour being led by a racist Britain hating lunatic (I paraphrase)
    3) They voted for Labour for decades and nothing got better.

    So, where do we stand with that?

    1) has happened. Yes, yes, I know it’s a shambles and Johnson and the EU between them keep finding new and egregious ways to screw things up. But that is now a settled issue. Nobody apart possibly from the Greens will be standing on a rejoin platform.

    2) has resolved itself. Corbyn is no longer even a Labour MP. Starmer may be bland but he’s not getting the huge negatives the Jezaster had.

    3) remains salient and will doubtless in light of Darlington etc dominate the campaign for the Tories, along with vaccines.

    But I’m doubtful if hat is salient enough for Brexit former Labour voters to switch to the Tories. More likely they will stay at home now.

    So although the Tories have a decent chance of a gain I think Labour are the value here.

    That said, much depends on the candidate. I agree with @eek that Laura Pidcock will definitely be interested and if, God forbid, she is selected Labour will be lucky to come third.

    Labour voters just ceased to see anything in the Labour offering that represented them.

    Let's take a really hard example - race. Labour like to make it an issue. The Tories like to try not to and try to attend to the problems.

    I wonder if we might see the re-arrival of Balls or DMill? (I'm still not convinced that either of them are still 'Labour')
    It would be great to get Ed Balls back - a real intellectual big beast and a great communicator to boot. However, why would he? He has a burgeoning and lucrative media career, and has his life back.

    He’s a great (award-winning) cook by the way, and knows his wine, which tells you a lot about the measure of the man.
    Honestly, I think I could vote for Labour with Ed Balls as leader. He's got his head screwed on, I trust him not to do the dirty on brexit and rejoin the single market or Schengen or something stupid like that and I'm certain he really loves this country and wants to improve it in a way I'm not reassured by Starmer or anyone else in Labour right now.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    MaxPB said:

    Floater said:
    The second picture gives me so much hope for May and June. The finish line is in sight, no tricks or misinformation campaigns from Europe will derail us.

    This is definitely one of those moments where I'm very, very happy to be British. I look over at Europe with despair that they're throwing away the chance to have the same great summer we've got lined up by making all of these unforced errors over vaccines.
    Enormous numbers of people simply haven't grasped how lucky we are to have the vaccines as a potential way out of this. They read about the Spanish flu etc, and observe that it went through 3 distinct waves (the second being by far the biggest and deadliest) and just think history will repeat itself. We're almost at the end of the line. But unlike in 1918-19, Governments have moved mountains to try to counter the spread of the virus, in a way not thinkable or feasible back then. And frankly (and this is why many were sceptical given the belief in the remote possibility of the imminence of a vaccine) all these measures likely did, absent a vaccine, was lengthen the pandemic significantly and stretch it out over a far longer period.

    The vaccines are the trump card which means the pandemic (in its deadliest form) can be kept to a similar time frame as 1918 but at a fraction of the deaths. But not if enough people won't take it. And take it again if necessary in six months time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Have just found out that there will be an actual hustings / selection for Hartlepool.

    Of course they will probably manage to have a shortlist of one.

    Let it be Piddock.

    I reckon she would probably do more harm to Labour by winning and being back in Parliament.
    She would certainly split the Parliamentary party.

    I don’t know why she’s so highly rated by the Labour left, if I’m honest. Everything I’ve heard from her has been a collection of vacuous clichés that either betray a lack of intellectual curiosity or possibly a lack of intelligence. She’s also lazy and dishonest as well as rude and surly.

    But for some reason, they love her.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Why did ex-Labour and non-voters in the north switch to the Brexit party in large numbers?

    There seem, from such polling as I have seen, to be three reasons:

    1) Brexit
    2) Labour being led by a racist Britain hating lunatic (I paraphrase)
    3) They voted for Labour for decades and nothing got better.

    So, where do we stand with that?

    1) has happened. Yes, yes, I know it’s a shambles and Johnson and the EU between them keep finding new and egregious ways to screw things up. But that is now a settled issue. Nobody apart possibly from the Greens will be standing on a rejoin platform.

    2) has resolved itself. Corbyn is no longer even a Labour MP. Starmer may be bland but he’s not getting the huge negatives the Jezaster had.

    3) remains salient and will doubtless in light of Darlington etc dominate the campaign for the Tories, along with vaccines.

    But I’m doubtful if hat is salient enough for Brexit former Labour voters to switch to the Tories. More likely they will stay at home now.

    So although the Tories have a decent chance of a gain I think Labour are the value here.

    That said, much depends on the candidate. I agree with @eek that Laura Pidcock will definitely be interested and if, God forbid, she is selected Labour will be lucky to come third.

    Labour voters just ceased to see anything in the Labour offering that represented them.

    Let's take a really hard example - race. Labour like to make it an issue. The Tories like to try not to and try to attend to the problems.

    I wonder if we might see the re-arrival of Balls or DMill? (I'm still not convinced that either of them are still 'Labour')
    It would be great to get Ed Balls back - a real intellectual big beast and a great communicator to boot. However, why would he? He has a burgeoning and lucrative media career, and has his life back.

    He’s a great (award-winning) cook by the way, and knows his wine, which tells you a lot about the measure of the man.
    I think he's pretty good. In government though he was simply awful, and especially so on his supposed specialist subject of economics. I'm almost sure that he's basically now a LD if not a wet Tory.

    I think there's a lot of that in Labour. The Corbyn project acted like a repellant away from the left.

    If Balls or DMill wish to return though this is about as good as it gets. Balls would I think win.

    Pidcock is quite a likely possibility - I'm not so sure Starmer would want that though.

    Tories will run Mrs A N Other, and will win.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Fishing said:

    Floater said:
    Fuck Europe. This what your life could be looking like - if you weren't so intent on fucking over AstraZeneca to protect domestic pharma.
    It's what this country should be looking like (allowing for the weather) if our government weren't being much too cautious.
    To be honest, the weather is the main reason people aren’t moaning. The moment we hit that first decent spell of weather will change all that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    Israel any good for a family holiday?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    TimT said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Bloody hell.

    Neil Ferguson on BBC News just said that neither he, nor anyone else on SAGE, even considered the idea of closing the borders at the start of the pandemic.

    Why not?

    SAGE clearly didn’t know their onions.
    Even if they took their sweet thyme
    They are parsleymonious with their advice.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    MaxPB said:

    Floater said:
    The second picture gives me so much hope for May and June. The finish line is in sight, no tricks or misinformation campaigns from Europe will derail us.

    This is definitely one of those moments where I'm very, very happy to be British. I look over at Europe with despair that they're throwing away the chance to have the same great summer we've got lined up by making all of these unforced errors over vaccines.
    We have already booked 3 staycations and will doing our bit to give some much needed relief to our hospitality industry

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Those are amazing scenes from Israel.

    😌

    It's the annual pre general election celebrations.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,692
    kle4 said:

    TimT said:

    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Bloody hell.

    Neil Ferguson on BBC News just said that neither he, nor anyone else on SAGE, even considered the idea of closing the borders at the start of the pandemic.

    Why not?

    SAGE clearly didn’t know their onions.
    Even if they took their sweet thyme
    They are parsleymonious with their advice.
    Probably trying to curry favour.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    The Gambling Commission is proposing restricting clients with draconian rules to only losing £100 per month on their betting yet has somehow allowed a fairly obvious ponzi scheme to run off with £100m of client funds.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56401707

    That will kill off most gambling if it goes ahead, and make many businesses unviable.

    Why should the rest of us suffer for a small minority of problem gamblers?
    £100 a month? I don't even think of that as gambling money. It's just price of entry. And, regardless, the principle is ludicrous at any level given that people may bet (and arbitrage) across multiple platforms.

    All it would do is drive gambling underground.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    Israel any good for a family holiday?

    My wife is quarter Jewish and she absolutely raves about her family trips there when she was a child.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Why did ex-Labour and non-voters in the north switch to the Brexit party in large numbers?

    There seem, from such polling as I have seen, to be three reasons:

    1) Brexit
    2) Labour being led by a racist Britain hating lunatic (I paraphrase)
    3) They voted for Labour for decades and nothing got better.

    So, where do we stand with that?

    1) has happened. Yes, yes, I know it’s a shambles and Johnson and the EU between them keep finding new and egregious ways to screw things up. But that is now a settled issue. Nobody apart possibly from the Greens will be standing on a rejoin platform.

    2) has resolved itself. Corbyn is no longer even a Labour MP. Starmer may be bland but he’s not getting the huge negatives the Jezaster had.

    3) remains salient and will doubtless in light of Darlington etc dominate the campaign for the Tories, along with vaccines.

    But I’m doubtful if hat is salient enough for Brexit former Labour voters to switch to the Tories. More likely they will stay at home now.

    So although the Tories have a decent chance of a gain I think Labour are the value here.

    That said, much depends on the candidate. I agree with @eek that Laura Pidcock will definitely be interested and if, God forbid, she is selected Labour will be lucky to come third.

    Labour voters just ceased to see anything in the Labour offering that represented them.

    Let's take a really hard example - race. Labour like to make it an issue. The Tories like to try not to and try to attend to the problems.

    I wonder if we might see the re-arrival of Balls or DMill? (I'm still not convinced that either of them are still 'Labour')
    It would be great to get Ed Balls back - a real intellectual big beast and a great communicator to boot. However, why would he? He has a burgeoning and lucrative media career, and has his life back.

    He’s a great (award-winning) cook by the way, and knows his wine, which tells you a lot about the measure of the man.
    I think he's pretty good. In government though he was simply awful, and especially so on his supposed specialist subject of economics. I'm almost sure that he's basically now a LD if not a wet Tory.

    I think there's a lot of that in Labour. The Corbyn project acted like a repellant away from the left.

    If Balls or DMill wish to return though this is about as good as it gets. Balls would I think win.

    Pidcock is quite a likely possibility - I'm not so sure Starmer would want that though.

    Tories will run Mrs A N Other, and will win.
    If Pidcock got the selection and won I would expect a leftward challenge to Starmer within a year. She was the annointed high priestess of the momentum cult after all
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited March 2021

    Israel any good for a family holiday?

    I’d avoid Jerusalem and Tel Aviv as a base as they’re very expensive and a bastard to travel around, but I enjoyed my time in Nazareth and I am sure various Kibbutzim in the Galilee would be happy to offer a decent break. It is a stunningly beautiful land apart from the politics.
  • Israel any good for a family holiday?

    We took our teenage children and it was fabulous
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    MaxPB said:

    Israel any good for a family holiday?

    My wife is quarter Jewish and she absolutely raves about her family trips there when she was a child.
    Beach, history, great food ...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    IMHO, the EU will view the report as an insult.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    alex_ said:

    The Gambling Commission is proposing restricting clients with draconian rules to only losing £100 per month on their betting yet has somehow allowed a fairly obvious ponzi scheme to run off with £100m of client funds.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56401707

    That will kill off most gambling if it goes ahead, and make many businesses unviable.

    Why should the rest of us suffer for a small minority of problem gamblers?
    £100 a month? I don't even think of that as gambling money. It's just price of entry. And, regardless, the principle is ludicrous at any level given that people may bet (and arbitrage) across multiple platforms.

    All it would do is drive gambling underground.
    I worry they'll do it though.

    Who wants to go into bat for people who enjoy gambling but don't screw it up though?

    It'd destroy my main way of making money outside work 😔
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,764
    Pagan2 said:

    The whole AZN fiasco, starting with UVDL but now individual member states following, and indeed deepening the crisis, leaves one wondering just how long before the voters in each state reacts as thousands, even millions, of lives are put at risk

    And yes, to those supporters of the EU this is a PR disaster whether UVDL, or individual states, have both made unbelievable and stupid decisions which are largely political, and certainly not in the interests of their citizens

    As I said before the fury from eu citizens will come when they see pictures of brits partying after the end of june while they still have to fill out a form to leave the house and deaths are in the 100's
    Wait until they are watching UK host all the euro footy matches in June/July.
  • If by some miracle she gets shortlisted I expect the CLP to select Pillock. If they stitch it up as I expect them to do it'll be a Paul Williams one man shortlist.

    Unite will probably fund the CLP suing the party if that's the case. They love throwing members subs to posh lawyers to sue the people's party.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,692
    A warning against complacency. Serbia has had to reimpose a partial lockdown, despite being well ahead of the EU on vaccinations.

    https://twitter.com/IrishTimesWorld/status/1371897313224916992
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    MaxPB said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Why did ex-Labour and non-voters in the north switch to the Brexit party in large numbers?

    There seem, from such polling as I have seen, to be three reasons:

    1) Brexit
    2) Labour being led by a racist Britain hating lunatic (I paraphrase)
    3) They voted for Labour for decades and nothing got better.

    So, where do we stand with that?

    1) has happened. Yes, yes, I know it’s a shambles and Johnson and the EU between them keep finding new and egregious ways to screw things up. But that is now a settled issue. Nobody apart possibly from the Greens will be standing on a rejoin platform.

    2) has resolved itself. Corbyn is no longer even a Labour MP. Starmer may be bland but he’s not getting the huge negatives the Jezaster had.

    3) remains salient and will doubtless in light of Darlington etc dominate the campaign for the Tories, along with vaccines.

    But I’m doubtful if hat is salient enough for Brexit former Labour voters to switch to the Tories. More likely they will stay at home now.

    So although the Tories have a decent chance of a gain I think Labour are the value here.

    That said, much depends on the candidate. I agree with @eek that Laura Pidcock will definitely be interested and if, God forbid, she is selected Labour will be lucky to come third.

    Labour voters just ceased to see anything in the Labour offering that represented them.

    Let's take a really hard example - race. Labour like to make it an issue. The Tories like to try not to and try to attend to the problems.

    I wonder if we might see the re-arrival of Balls or DMill? (I'm still not convinced that either of them are still 'Labour')
    It would be great to get Ed Balls back - a real intellectual big beast and a great communicator to boot. However, why would he? He has a burgeoning and lucrative media career, and has his life back.

    He’s a great (award-winning) cook by the way, and knows his wine, which tells you a lot about the measure of the man.
    Honestly, I think I could vote for Labour with Ed Balls as leader. He's got his head screwed on, I trust him not to do the dirty on brexit and rejoin the single market or Schengen or something stupid like that and I'm certain he really loves this country and wants to improve it in a way I'm not reassured by Starmer or anyone else in Labour right now.
    Trouble would be, those battalions of pillocks behind him. They would go "Great - power! Now let's get those agendas out...."
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770
    Pagan2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Why did ex-Labour and non-voters in the north switch to the Brexit party in large numbers?

    There seem, from such polling as I have seen, to be three reasons:

    1) Brexit
    2) Labour being led by a racist Britain hating lunatic (I paraphrase)
    3) They voted for Labour for decades and nothing got better.

    So, where do we stand with that?

    1) has happened. Yes, yes, I know it’s a shambles and Johnson and the EU between them keep finding new and egregious ways to screw things up. But that is now a settled issue. Nobody apart possibly from the Greens will be standing on a rejoin platform.

    2) has resolved itself. Corbyn is no longer even a Labour MP. Starmer may be bland but he’s not getting the huge negatives the Jezaster had.

    3) remains salient and will doubtless in light of Darlington etc dominate the campaign for the Tories, along with vaccines.

    But I’m doubtful if hat is salient enough for Brexit former Labour voters to switch to the Tories. More likely they will stay at home now.

    So although the Tories have a decent chance of a gain I think Labour are the value here.

    That said, much depends on the candidate. I agree with @eek that Laura Pidcock will definitely be interested and if, God forbid, she is selected Labour will be lucky to come third.

    Labour voters just ceased to see anything in the Labour offering that represented them.

    Let's take a really hard example - race. Labour like to make it an issue. The Tories like to try not to and try to attend to the problems.

    I wonder if we might see the re-arrival of Balls or DMill? (I'm still not convinced that either of them are still 'Labour')
    It would be great to get Ed Balls back - a real intellectual big beast and a great communicator to boot. However, why would he? He has a burgeoning and lucrative media career, and has his life back.

    He’s a great (award-winning) cook by the way, and knows his wine, which tells you a lot about the measure of the man.
    I think he's pretty good. In government though he was simply awful, and especially so on his supposed specialist subject of economics. I'm almost sure that he's basically now a LD if not a wet Tory.

    I think there's a lot of that in Labour. The Corbyn project acted like a repellant away from the left.

    If Balls or DMill wish to return though this is about as good as it gets. Balls would I think win.

    Pidcock is quite a likely possibility - I'm not so sure Starmer would want that though.

    Tories will run Mrs A N Other, and will win.
    If Pidcock got the selection and won I would expect a leftward challenge to Starmer within a year. She was the annointed high priestess of the momentum cult after all
    There's not sufficient unity for that.

    The stalking horse against Starmer will be Burgon or Lammy in my view.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Israel any good for a family holiday?

    Very good, but too hot (40°C+) in July and August.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited March 2021

    Floater said:
    I genuinely love the central European tendency to just ffing say what they think. Doesn't matter if I agree with them or not, it's refreshing.
    You are slightly off. What they've got, is the skill & cunning, to just ffing say what they think, what YOU want them to think.

    Of course, the fine folk east & south from old Vienna DO have a robust way about them that CAN be quite refreshing. Though on occasion one MIGHT wish they would curb their enthusiasm.

    Like in 1940, when Adolf Hitler had to tell the Romanians to STOP killing Jews, in various old-fashioned ways in streets, because they were getting way too carried away for even the Fuhrer's fine sensibilities.

    Can't say I've got much stomach for the current Polish Putinist regime. Speaking as someone who helped out the (post-Commie) political arm of Solidarity, before it split between (relative) liberals and (at best) reactionaries. With the latter in charge in Warsaw.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    A warning against complacency. Serbia has had to reimpose a partial lockdown, despite being well ahead of the EU on vaccinations.

    https://twitter.com/IrishTimesWorld/status/1371897313224916992

    But isn’t it making extensive use of Sinopharm, which is only about 50% effective?

    Better than nothing but not as good as the others that are available and probably not enough to stop lockdowns on its own.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    A warning against complacency. Serbia has had to reimpose a partial lockdown, despite being well ahead of the EU on vaccinations.

    https://twitter.com/IrishTimesWorld/status/1371897313224916992

    Yes, i feel that too many people are looking at pictures like (eg. Israel) above and concluding that they're free. Hopefully they are, and the vaccines have done the job (and the odds are clearly in their favour), but the simple pictures of anti-lockdown life isn't automatically evidence in itself (remember Czechia last year!)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Sandpit said:

    Israel any good for a family holiday?

    Very good, but too hot (40°C+) in July and August.
    Oddly, although I don’t like hot weather I didn’t find the heat in Israel that trying.

    Admittedly, I would have been happy for it to be cooler the time I was at Masada and the cable car broke so I had to walk down, but I managed it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,476

    Floater said:
    I genuinely love the central European tendency to just ffing say what they think. Doesn't matter if I agree with them or not, it's refreshing.
    You are slightly off. What they've got, is the skill & cunning, to just ffing say what they think, what YOU want them to think.

    Of course, the fine folk east & south from old Vienna DO have a robust way about them that CAN be quite refreshing. Though on occasion one MIGHT wish they would curb their enthusiasm.

    Like in 1940, when Adolf Hitler had to tell the Romanians to STOP killing Jews, in various old-fashioned ways in streets, because they were getting way too carried away for even the Fuhrer's fine sensibilities.

    Can't say I've got much stomach for the current Polish Putinist regime. Speaking as someone who helped out the (post-Commie) political arm of Solidarity, before it split between (relative) liberals and (at best) reactionaries. With the latter in charge in Warsaw.
    Yes, I am sure there's that side too. There isn't really such a thing as a more virtuous breed - just endless variety.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Seeing as how we've got Charles & Robert right in the Golden State (or close by) am saddened that, in breaking news about the impending Gaving Newsom gubernatorial recall in California, PB has been scooped by "The View" and Politico.com.

    A sad day for "the web's premier resource for political betting".

    Indeed, given that the 2020 Cali Recall could be the greatest opportunity for gold-seekers, since they found those pretty rocks down by Sutter's Mill.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    ydoethur said:

    Have just found out that there will be an actual hustings / selection for Hartlepool.

    Of course they will probably manage to have a shortlist of one.

    Let it be Piddock.

    I reckon she would probably do more harm to Labour by winning and being back in Parliament.
    She would certainly split the Parliamentary party.

    I don’t know why she’s so highly rated by the Labour left, if I’m honest. Everything I’ve heard from her has been a collection of vacuous clichés that either betray a lack of intellectual curiosity or possibly a lack of intelligence. She’s also lazy and dishonest as well as rude and surly.

    But for some reason, they love her.
    It would be an opportunity for her to challenge the hapless Starmer, win and give us a guaranteed twenty years of inch-perfect and incorruptible Johnson Governments.

    There aren't many of us on this blog that wouldn't cheer that thought to the rafters.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    Floater said:
    Or 550 deaths in the UK.

    The AZ vaccine has helped get us close to a tenth of that.

    Because we don't have prosecutors seizing vaccine, but instead having a worldy effort at vaccinating our people.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Clear, at least to Gavin Newsome, that he will be subject to a special recall election this year.

    An NOT a punter, but reckon that, as betting opportunities go, the California Recall 2021 will make the 2021 Harlepool by-election look like a church-hall bingo game.

    Isn't Newsom insisting on signature match counts that the democrats completely opposed last November? Except he is promising to be 'aggressive'

  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Floater said:
    Fuck Europe. This what your life could be looking like - if you weren't so intent on fucking over AstraZeneca to protect domestic pharma.
    Hasn't Florida been like this for months?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited March 2021

    ydoethur said:

    Have just found out that there will be an actual hustings / selection for Hartlepool.

    Of course they will probably manage to have a shortlist of one.

    Let it be Piddock.

    I reckon she would probably do more harm to Labour by winning and being back in Parliament.
    She would certainly split the Parliamentary party.

    I don’t know why she’s so highly rated by the Labour left, if I’m honest. Everything I’ve heard from her has been a collection of vacuous clichés that either betray a lack of intellectual curiosity or possibly a lack of intelligence. She’s also lazy and dishonest as well as rude and surly.

    But for some reason, they love her.
    It would be an opportunity for her to challenge the hapless Starmer, win and give us a guaranteed twenty years of inch-perfect and incorruptible Johnson Governments.

    There aren't many of us on this blog that wouldn't cheer that thought to the rafters.
    Well, no, which is those of us like you and I who *don’t* want that should right now be praying to the deity of our choice that she isn’t selected.

    Especially given her defeat would probably split the party anyway.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,828
    ydoethur said:

    A warning against complacency. Serbia has had to reimpose a partial lockdown, despite being well ahead of the EU on vaccinations.

    https://twitter.com/IrishTimesWorld/status/1371897313224916992

    But isn’t it making extensive use of Sinopharm, which is only about 50% effective?

    Better than nothing but not as good as the others that are available and probably not enough to stop lockdowns on its own.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-a-e-giving-third-shot-of-sinopharm-vaccine-to-some-11615575099

    After a trial involving 31,000 volunteers, the U.A.E. said the Sinopharm vaccine had an overall efficacy of 86% and offered 100% protection against moderate to severe Covid-19 disease.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598

    Floater said:
    Fuck Europe. This what your life could be looking like - if you weren't so intent on fucking over AstraZeneca to protect domestic pharma.
    Hasn't Florida been like this for months?
    Covid deaths today in Florida: 93. Or on a population basis equivalent to the UK, 279.

    Still too high to justify party-party-party....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Have just found out that there will be an actual hustings / selection for Hartlepool.

    Of course they will probably manage to have a shortlist of one.

    Let it be Piddock.

    I reckon she would probably do more harm to Labour by winning and being back in Parliament.
    She would certainly split the Parliamentary party.

    I don’t know why she’s so highly rated by the Labour left, if I’m honest. Everything I’ve heard from her has been a collection of vacuous clichés that either betray a lack of intellectual curiosity or possibly a lack of intelligence. She’s also lazy and dishonest as well as rude and surly.

    But for some reason, they love her.
    It would be an opportunity for her to challenge the hapless Starmer, win and give us a guaranteed twenty years of inch-perfect and incorruptible Johnson Governments.

    There aren't many of us on this blog that wouldn't cheer that thought to the rafters.
    Well, no, which is those of us like you and I who *don’t* want that should right now be praying to the deity of our choice that she isn’t selected.

    Especially given her defeat would probably split the party anyway.
    Amen!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    Thanks for the tips on Israel.

    I will take a closer look.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Have just found out that there will be an actual hustings / selection for Hartlepool.

    Of course they will probably manage to have a shortlist of one.

    Let it be Piddock.

    I reckon she would probably do more harm to Labour by winning and being back in Parliament.
    She would certainly split the Parliamentary party.

    I don’t know why she’s so highly rated by the Labour left, if I’m honest. Everything I’ve heard from her has been a collection of vacuous clichés that either betray a lack of intellectual curiosity or possibly a lack of intelligence. She’s also lazy and dishonest as well as rude and surly.

    But for some reason, they love her.
    It would be an opportunity for her to challenge the hapless Starmer, win and give us a guaranteed twenty years of inch-perfect and incorruptible Johnson Governments.

    There aren't many of us on this blog that wouldn't cheer that thought to the rafters.
    Well, no, which is those of us like you and I who *don’t* want that should right now be praying to the deity of our choice that she isn’t selected.

    Especially given her defeat would probably split the party anyway.
    Amen!
    I had assumed the numbers in the PLP and the membership meant the far left was now shut out again whatever happens? Am I too optimistic?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770
    I'm delighted that the Duke of Edinburgh is out of the woods.

    The last of the real Dukes I guess.

    'Bloody, bloody Duke of Edinburgh' as spitting image would have him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited March 2021

    ydoethur said:

    A warning against complacency. Serbia has had to reimpose a partial lockdown, despite being well ahead of the EU on vaccinations.

    https://twitter.com/IrishTimesWorld/status/1371897313224916992

    But isn’t it making extensive use of Sinopharm, which is only about 50% effective?

    Better than nothing but not as good as the others that are available and probably not enough to stop lockdowns on its own.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-a-e-giving-third-shot-of-sinopharm-vaccine-to-some-11615575099

    After a trial involving 31,000 volunteers, the U.A.E. said the Sinopharm vaccine had an overall efficacy of 86% and offered 100% protection against moderate to severe Covid-19 disease.
    Great news if it pans out - given some amount of mistrust of vaccines from the 'wrong' places does exist, the more the world has from different places the better.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    edited March 2021

    ydoethur said:

    A warning against complacency. Serbia has had to reimpose a partial lockdown, despite being well ahead of the EU on vaccinations.

    https://twitter.com/IrishTimesWorld/status/1371897313224916992

    But isn’t it making extensive use of Sinopharm, which is only about 50% effective?

    Better than nothing but not as good as the others that are available and probably not enough to stop lockdowns on its own.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-a-e-giving-third-shot-of-sinopharm-vaccine-to-some-11615575099

    After a trial involving 31,000 volunteers, the U.A.E. said the Sinopharm vaccine had an overall efficacy of 86% and offered 100% protection against moderate to severe Covid-19 disease.
    That article reads suspiciously like, ‘the UAE thinks it’s shit but daren’t tell the Chinese that.’

    Given how widely it’s being used I hope I’m wrong.

    Edit - it seems that the Chinese vaccine that is 50% effective is Sinovac, so a different vaccine, but even so, the Sinopharm claim is only for 79% so it is slightly surprising if it’s significantly higher in the vaccinated populations, albeit good news.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Have just found out that there will be an actual hustings / selection for Hartlepool.

    Of course they will probably manage to have a shortlist of one.

    Let it be Piddock.

    I reckon she would probably do more harm to Labour by winning and being back in Parliament.
    She would certainly split the Parliamentary party.

    I don’t know why she’s so highly rated by the Labour left, if I’m honest. Everything I’ve heard from her has been a collection of vacuous clichés that either betray a lack of intellectual curiosity or possibly a lack of intelligence. She’s also lazy and dishonest as well as rude and surly.

    But for some reason, they love her.
    It would be an opportunity for her to challenge the hapless Starmer, win and give us a guaranteed twenty years of inch-perfect and incorruptible Johnson Governments.

    There aren't many of us on this blog that wouldn't cheer that thought to the rafters.
    Well, no, which is those of us like you and I who *don’t* want that should right now be praying to the deity of our choice that she isn’t selected.

    Especially given her defeat would probably split the party anyway.
    Amen!
    I had assumed the numbers in the PLP and the membership meant the far left was now shut out again whatever happens? Am I too optimistic?
    Yes.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,428
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Have just found out that there will be an actual hustings / selection for Hartlepool.

    Of course they will probably manage to have a shortlist of one.

    Let it be Piddock.

    I reckon she would probably do more harm to Labour by winning and being back in Parliament.
    She would certainly split the Parliamentary party.

    I don’t know why she’s so highly rated by the Labour left, if I’m honest. Everything I’ve heard from her has been a collection of vacuous clichés that either betray a lack of intellectual curiosity or possibly a lack of intelligence. She’s also lazy and dishonest as well as rude and surly.

    But for some reason, they love her.
    It would be an opportunity for her to challenge the hapless Starmer, win and give us a guaranteed twenty years of inch-perfect and incorruptible Johnson Governments.

    There aren't many of us on this blog that wouldn't cheer that thought to the rafters.
    Well, no, which is those of us like you and I who *don’t* want that should right now be praying to the deity of our choice that she isn’t selected.

    Especially given her defeat would probably split the party anyway.
    Good government needs good opposition. It does no one any favours to have weak/poor opponents.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    What the hell has happened to the EU

    ..or were we having some weird kind of moderating effect on it as a member? Either way, they are looking increasingly alien
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Clear, at least to Gavin Newsome, that he will be subject to a special recall election this year.

    An NOT a punter, but reckon that, as betting opportunities go, the California Recall 2021 will make the 2021 Harlepool by-election look like a church-hall bingo game.

    Isn't Newsom insisting on signature match counts that the democrats completely opposed last November? Except he is promising to be 'aggressive'

    "This one appears to have the requisite signatures" - Gov. Gavin Newsome (D-CA) on "The View" this morning.

    Re: signatures, my guess is that recall organizers are submitting (by tomorrow's deadline) more sigs than they need to qualify their petition.

    Note that the general rule of thumb with initiatives & referenda, is that you need at least 15% more sigs than required, because at least that will turn out to be invalid, either not registered, ineligible or duplicate sigs. Don't know about CA, but in WA State highest disqualification rate was around 30%.

    Not sure what you mean exactly by November? IIRC Dems opposed checking voter sigs in some places in 2020

    But certainly not all Dems in all places for all reasons. In fact, that is precisely what's done with EVERY ballot returned by voters in Washington State & Oregon in our all vote-by-mail elections.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Story No 1 on 6th May: Whatever happens at Holyrood and its implications for the continued existence of the UK.
    Story 2: Modest Labour gains in locals (given starting point in 2017) but disappointing: SKS under pressure
    Story 3: Kahn wins London on first round.
    Story 4: outcome of a by election oop north somewhere not important.

    The average member of the public can probably just about cope with 2 political stories. No 4 will barely register.

    Having said that I agree with @Richard_Nabavi . Labour are clear value here. As Mike points out the idea that 10K Brexit voters= 10K potential Tories is way over optimistic. A lot won't vote, some will have moved on from the Brexit betrayal and go home and some will vote for Reform or whatever it is called by then. Some might vote Tory but the assumptions that make the Tories favourites are just wrong.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,542
    edited March 2021
    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Why did ex-Labour and non-voters in the north switch to the Brexit party in large numbers?

    There seem, from such polling as I have seen, to be three reasons:

    1) Brexit
    2) Labour being led by a racist Britain hating lunatic (I paraphrase)
    3) They voted for Labour for decades and nothing got better.

    So, where do we stand with that?

    1) has happened. Yes, yes, I know it’s a shambles and Johnson and the EU between them keep finding new and egregious ways to screw things up. But that is now a settled issue. Nobody apart possibly from the Greens will be standing on a rejoin platform.

    2) has resolved itself. Corbyn is no longer even a Labour MP. Starmer may be bland but he’s not getting the huge negatives the Jezaster had.

    3) remains salient and will doubtless in light of Darlington etc dominate the campaign for the Tories, along with vaccines.

    But I’m doubtful if hat is salient enough for Brexit former Labour voters to switch to the Tories. More likely they will stay at home now.

    So although the Tories have a decent chance of a gain I think Labour are the value here.

    That said, much depends on the candidate. I agree with @eek that Laura Pidcock will definitely be interested and if, God forbid, she is selected Labour will be lucky to come third.

    Labour voters just ceased to see anything in the Labour offering that represented them.

    Let's take a really hard example - race. Labour like to make it an issue. The Tories like to try not to and try to attend to the problems.

    I wonder if we might see the re-arrival of Balls or DMill? (I'm still not convinced that either of them are still 'Labour')
    Labour campaigning is really hard for a very good reason. They now appeal to lumpy groups of core support: Super Urban; public sector payroll vote; group think students; culture types; many BAMEs (but a good number run a mile); champagne socialists/Guardian/graduate. These groups are highly focussed in particular places, none of them rural or small town.

    So campaigning has big problems: they don't have a broad spectrum appeal to address across the nation, and the groups have irreconcilable views. Many BAMEs are socially conservative. Most of their support groups have no interest in widget production or selling stuff abroad or the private sector. Increasingly ordinary people, for whom many Labour types have total contempt, don't know other ordinary people who habitually vote Labour or belong to the party.

    SKS is a start, and I hope he does well. If he wins Hartlepool it would be a spring board.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Have just found out that there will be an actual hustings / selection for Hartlepool.

    Of course they will probably manage to have a shortlist of one.

    Let it be Piddock.

    I reckon she would probably do more harm to Labour by winning and being back in Parliament.
    She would certainly split the Parliamentary party.

    I don’t know why she’s so highly rated by the Labour left, if I’m honest. Everything I’ve heard from her has been a collection of vacuous clichés that either betray a lack of intellectual curiosity or possibly a lack of intelligence. She’s also lazy and dishonest as well as rude and surly.

    But for some reason, they love her.
    It would be an opportunity for her to challenge the hapless Starmer, win and give us a guaranteed twenty years of inch-perfect and incorruptible Johnson Governments.

    There aren't many of us on this blog that wouldn't cheer that thought to the rafters.
    Well, no, which is those of us like you and I who *don’t* want that should right now be praying to the deity of our choice that she isn’t selected.

    Especially given her defeat would probably split the party anyway.
    Good government needs good opposition. It does no one any favours to have weak/poor opponents.
    No one? Robert Mugabe, Vladimir Putin and even Donald Trump are frantically waving at you.

    Boris Johnson wouldn't exactly be crying into his Champagne soaked Rice Crispies at the thought of Laura Pidcock, LOTO.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Whether anybody will still want them by that point is a different matter.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Floater said:
    Is someone making a killing in the stock market(s) out of all this whipsawing?

    Genuine question, but hard to think answer is no.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    edited March 2021
    ydoethur said:

    A warning against complacency. Serbia has had to reimpose a partial lockdown, despite being well ahead of the EU on vaccinations.

    https://twitter.com/IrishTimesWorld/status/1371897313224916992

    But isn’t it making extensive use of Sinopharm, which is only about 50% effective?

    Better than nothing but not as good as the others that are available and probably not enough to stop lockdowns on its own.
    Sinopharm is okay, over 85% effective. Sinovac is the 50% dud one.

    Edit: I see that point has been made already.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    DavidL said:

    Story No 1 on 6th May: Whatever happens at Holyrood and its implications for the continued existence of the UK.
    Story 2: Modest Labour gains in locals (given starting point in 2017) but disappointing: SKS under pressure
    Story 3: Kahn wins London on first round.
    Story 4: outcome of a by election oop north somewhere not important.

    The average member of the public can probably just about cope with 2 political stories. No 4 will barely register.

    Having said that I agree with @Richard_Nabavi . Labour are clear value here. As Mike points out the idea that 10K Brexit voters= 10K potential Tories is way over optimistic. A lot won't vote, some will have moved on from the Brexit betrayal and go home and some will vote for Reform or whatever it is called by then. Some might vote Tory but the assumptions that make the Tories favourites are just wrong.

    Agreed. I really don't think CON will win Hartlepool.

    DYOR :lol:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    What the hell has happened to the EU

    ..or were we having some weird kind of moderating effect on it as a member? Either way, they are looking increasingly alien

    I used to think that with us and the Germans there were at least 2 sane members of the EU who dealt with the real world, sometime 3 when Holland had one of their better PMs. After our departure they seem to be relying on Belgium. Its not a great look.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487

    What the hell has happened to the EU

    ..or were we having some weird kind of moderating effect on it as a member? Either way, they are looking increasingly alien

    This is the organisation we were all "scared" of 2 years ago, and it was deified.

    Perversely, maybe we were actually holding it all together?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Does that include the ones they've exported to hospitals abroad?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770

    Floater said:
    Is someone making a killing in the stock market(s) out of all this whipsawing?

    Genuine question, but hard to think answer is no.
    Not sure the stock market cares. Certainly any such impact is swamped by other things.

    Whatever else happens AZN have done well in their plan to not make money from this.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Floater said:
    Aye, ready, aye!

    Seriously, this IS good news. And perhaps the other good news, is that people in EU and elsewhere will be able to get vaccinated because their govts are back-pedaling on this.

    Perhaps because the views of the populace are NOT in sinc with the spin of the politicos?

    Heck, and yours truly is PRO-EU, was & still am ANTI-BREXIT, for what it's worth (bit less than 2-cents).

    Jesus wept.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    alex_ said:

    Does that include the ones they've exported to hospitals abroad?
    They need to get a f****** grip and keep those revolvers away from their own knee caps. Now.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,227

    I think Lab should be firm favourite.

    The Brexit vote will be lifelong Labour voters who couldn't bring themselves to vote Tory even to Get Brexit Done.

    They should return to Labour if BXP isn't there. If they go Tory that should be major shocking news.

    All across the red wall the astonishing sight of the 2019 GE was watching solid Labour voters turning out to vote Tory in large numbers. I sampled both polling stations and then boxes from Labour areas and they were record turnout gone blue.

    It started off as Brexit. But its bigger than that. People aren't voting for Brexit cos it means Brexit. They're voting for it and then the Tories because they hope it means prosperity and pride, two things that have largely eroded away from places like Hartlepools.

    If you look at the council it is a Tory / Independent coalition with just 8 Labour councillors left. People turn out to vote for lunatics and crazies in an "independent" group rather than Labour. So at the very least expect the Labour vote and turnout to be down and once they get a taste of not voting for Labour they keep doing it.
    I think there is also an element of the trailblazer Tory voters, when they don't get struck by lightning or haunted by their appalled grandparents, give cover for others to then do the same. I can't see what else explains Mansfield, say.

    Labour majority 2005: 11,365 Tory vote 18.4%

    Tory majority 2017: 1,057. Tory vote 46.6%

    Tory majority 2019: 16,306. Tory vote 63.9%

    The only thing similar that I have ever seen is the way the LibDem vote used to do that. The Northern Red Wall Tories have discovered how to out LibDem the LibDems....
    Mansfield is very similar to the Ed Davey pattern in Kingston and Surbiton from 1997 to 2005 on the *numbers*.

    Round Mansfield Red Wall Tories are acting like LibDems.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,828
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    A warning against complacency. Serbia has had to reimpose a partial lockdown, despite being well ahead of the EU on vaccinations.

    https://twitter.com/IrishTimesWorld/status/1371897313224916992

    But isn’t it making extensive use of Sinopharm, which is only about 50% effective?

    Better than nothing but not as good as the others that are available and probably not enough to stop lockdowns on its own.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-a-e-giving-third-shot-of-sinopharm-vaccine-to-some-11615575099

    After a trial involving 31,000 volunteers, the U.A.E. said the Sinopharm vaccine had an overall efficacy of 86% and offered 100% protection against moderate to severe Covid-19 disease.
    That article reads suspiciously like, ‘the UAE thinks it’s shit but daren’t tell the Chinese that.’

    Given how widely it’s being used I hope I’m wrong.

    Edit - it seems that the Chinese vaccine that is 50% effective is Sinovac, so a different vaccine, but even so, the Sinopharm claim is only for 79% so it is slightly surprising if it’s significantly higher in the vaccinated populations, albeit good news.
    And thats how the French think about AZ....
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Clear, at least to Gavin Newsome, that he will be subject to a special recall election this year.

    An NOT a punter, but reckon that, as betting opportunities go, the California Recall 2021 will make the 2021 Harlepool by-election look like a church-hall bingo game.

    Isn't Newsom insisting on signature match counts that the democrats completely opposed last November? Except he is promising to be 'aggressive'

    "This one appears to have the requisite signatures" - Gov. Gavin Newsome (D-CA) on "The View" this morning.

    Re: signatures, my guess is that recall organizers are submitting (by tomorrow's deadline) more sigs than they need to qualify their petition.

    Note that the general rule of thumb with initiatives & referenda, is that you need at least 15% more sigs than required, because at least that will turn out to be invalid, either not registered, ineligible or duplicate sigs. Don't know about CA, but in WA State highest disqualification rate was around 30%.

    Not sure what you mean exactly by November? IIRC Dems opposed checking voter sigs in some places in 2020

    But certainly not all Dems in all places for all reasons. In fact, that is precisely what's done with EVERY ballot returned by voters in Washington State & Oregon in our all vote-by-mail elections.
    I don't think they opposed signature matching? Just the pointless signature audit exercises that the Republicans were pushing as an excuse to try and rule out every mail in ballot cast. (after assuming that every one was a Democratic vote as well).
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    I can't see the Tories taking this seat.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Apparently there is a pretty aggressive labour party tweet out there about the tories' record on rape.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,165
    edited March 2021
    TimT said:

    IMHO, the EU will view the report as an insult.
    I am so glad that HMG have put clothes on 'global Britain'. This is precisely the optimistic but realistic self-image of Britain that I had hoped would, but feared would not, come out of Brexit, and is why I was and am pro-Brexit despite the clear economic disruption in the short- to medium-term.
    I'm afraid it must be said that much of the rest of the world won't view a combination of increasing nuclear warheads and prioritising relations with far-distant countries as fundamentally optimistic, or future-looking. The neo-imperial symbolism of that combination, primarily for the benefit of the Brexit consituency, is obvious - as it's meant to be, and so it won't be missed by an international audience either.
This discussion has been closed.