Re: Hartlepool, wouldn't it make sense for Labour to field a WOMAN for the by-election?
Note that this is pretty standard in US, when an incumbent is forced to resign due to allegations of sexual misconduct, for his party to actively recruit and back a woman to replace him.
That is precisely how US Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) one of the Republicans in US House who voted to impeach Trumpsky (after his Putsch) got into public office in the first place.
When a GOP state legislator (an evangelical firefighter no less) got caught up in a gay sex scandal, the party persuaded him to resign, then engineered the appointment of JHB to the vacancy. Her position was confirmed by voters at next election, then ran for Congress in 2010, won, and has been re-elected every two years since.
The issue with that is that the likely female candidate is Laura Pidcock - and that would do them no favours at all.
If it’s a Tory gain, then I guess that’s the story of the night isn’t it? Starmer doesn’t even get to point at decent results vs the 2017 baseline overnight.
Off topic - My wife has been working at a vaccine centre. Yesterday and into today there has been a massive uptick in refusals of AZ, especially amongst Asian communities.
If the EU has screwed this up, then sod them. There have to be consequences. It makes me angry.
Do you mind saying which part of the country your wife is working?
My father is performing vaccines in South Yorkshire and is targeting Asian communities, he's not noticed any refusals, he's had a higher than normal questions about the vaccines in general but reassures them all so they take it.
I’m sure he’s just as bashful and introverted as his son, but a massive well done to your father for joining in with the vaccine efforts. 👏
My father is very shy, he really is. I used to be very shy as well, it was around the time I was solely focussed on getting good grades at school, then I left home and went to university and discovered girls.
What is helping my father is that he speak to the Pakistani heritage people in Urdu/Punjabi and tell them he's had the vaccine and so have I and so should they because there's no way he'd let his son have a dodgy/unsafe vaccine.
Awesome! What’s the real issue with vaccines and Asian communities, is it general scepticism of the vaccines, distrust of government, or online disinformation / conspiracies?
In this part of the world they’ve got large employers to arrange at-work vaccinations to encourage peer pressure, and completely booked out the Asian-language radio stations with public information ads.
Everything down, apart from cases which are plateauing. This is because of a rise in reported cases in the 0-14 cohort
The vaccine effect is shown strongly in this graph as well - 65+ plummeting below everyone younger.
That’s the best graph at explaining what’s going on. A bunch of asymptotic kids, who would never normally have been tested, are being picked up by the schools testing everyone.
Yup. Exactly.
Will soon be a problem unless the government can properly communicate this PDQ.
Is there also going to be a problem with the death statistics before too long?
When there was a lot of virus, the numbers dying of something other than Covid during the 28 day window after testing positive roughly balanced out those dying of Covid untested or after more than 28 days.
As the vaccines are better at stopping serious cases than mild cases, that implies "with but not of" will eventually skew the statistics.
It might be difficult to reach zero deaths, particularly if there is still any transmission in hospitals.
I was clearly wrong. The mark of a clever person is knowing, accepting, and being comfortable with the fact that they don’t know everything and must defer to others from time to time.
If it’s a Tory gain, then I guess that’s the story of the night isn’t it? Starmer doesn’t even get to point at decent results vs the 2017 baseline overnight.
Off topic - My wife has been working at a vaccine centre. Yesterday and into today there has been a massive uptick in refusals of AZ, especially amongst Asian communities.
If the EU has screwed this up, then sod them. There have to be consequences. It makes me angry.
Do you mind saying which part of the country your wife is working?
My father is performing vaccines in South Yorkshire and is targeting Asian communities, he's not noticed any refusals, he's had a higher than normal questions about the vaccines in general but reassures them all so they take it.
I’m sure he’s just as bashful and introverted as his son, but a massive well done to your father for joining in with the vaccine efforts. 👏
My father is very shy, he really is. I used to be very shy as well, it was around the time I was solely focussed on getting good grades at school, then I left home and went to university and discovered girls.
What is helping my father is that he speak to the Pakistani heritage people in Urdu/Punjabi and tell them he's had the vaccine and so have I and so should they because there's no way he'd let his son have a dodgy/unsafe vaccine.
Awesome! What’s the real issue with vaccines and Asian communities, is it general scepticism of the vaccines, distrust of government, or online disinformation / conspiracies?
In this part of the world they’ve got large employers to arrange at-work vaccinations to encourage peer pressure, and completely booked out the Asian-language radio stations with public information ads.
People from Asia love a good conspiracy theory, always have.
That part of the world also had some bad experiences with bad doctors/vaccine rollout.
For Muslim communities the fact that the CIA set up a fake vaccine programme to find and kill Osama Bin Laden is one of those things that they remember and fuels theories.
The other thing is that because it costs money to call Pakistan/India/Bangladesh pretty much every person with South Asian heritage, particularly the oldies, has WhatsApp so they can call/message their family over there for free, the downside is that they get conspiracy theories on a regular basis via WhatsApp.
I was clearly wrong. The mark of a clever person is knowing, accepting, and being comfortable with the fact that they don’t know everything and must defer to others from time to time.
I have met extremely intelligent people who didn't realise that their cleverness didn't automatically grant them better understanding of a new field than knowing the corpus of knowledge for that field.
If it’s a Tory gain, then I guess that’s the story of the night isn’t it? Starmer doesn’t even get to point at decent results vs the 2017 baseline overnight.
Off topic - My wife has been working at a vaccine centre. Yesterday and into today there has been a massive uptick in refusals of AZ, especially amongst Asian communities.
If the EU has screwed this up, then sod them. There have to be consequences. It makes me angry.
Do you mind saying which part of the country your wife is working?
My father is performing vaccines in South Yorkshire and is targeting Asian communities, he's not noticed any refusals, he's had a higher than normal questions about the vaccines in general but reassures them all so they take it.
I’m sure he’s just as bashful and introverted as his son, but a massive well done to your father for joining in with the vaccine efforts. 👏
My father is very shy, he really is. I used to be very shy as well, it was around the time I was solely focussed on getting good grades at school, then I left home and went to university and discovered girls.
What is helping my father is that he speak to the Pakistani heritage people in Urdu/Punjabi and tell them he's had the vaccine and so have I and so should they because there's no way he'd let his son have a dodgy/unsafe vaccine.
Awesome! What’s the real issue with vaccines and Asian communities, is it general scepticism of the vaccines, distrust of government, or online disinformation / conspiracies?
In this part of the world they’ve got large employers to arrange at-work vaccinations to encourage peer pressure, and completely booked out the Asian-language radio stations with public information ads.
I was listening to a podcast earlier (can't remember which one) which was highlighting a problem with vaccine take-up by Polish people in the UK. They interviewed a Polish journalist who said that it is simply a distrust of any government. Their experience of Polish history leads them to disbelieve that any government would do something for the individual's benefit.
The Brexit vote will be lifelong Labour voters who couldn't bring themselves to vote Tory even to Get Brexit Done.
They should return to Labour if BXP isn't there. If they go Tory that should be major shocking news.
That's one interpretation but I have a different one. The BXP vote was a Hard Leave vote. We're talking about Leavers of such tough-as-teak disposition they didn't trust even Boris Johnson to deliver a proper Brexit. Nigel Farage was their man. These people are Eng Nat and 'traditional old fashioned commonsense' above everything else. Roll forward to now, Johnson has done the business for them. He's taken us out of Europe good and proper and he's done other stuff they wanted too, e.g. on immigration, on law and order, on statue defence, various other war on woke issues. Credit where credit's due and I think he and the Cons will get the credit from this demographic. The BXP vote will break 2 to 1 in their favour and they'll take this seat quite easily. I'll be lumping on at 1.85.
PS for morale on my side - but Labour will take it back at the GE.
The question I have is why after waiting so patiently for the EMA to approve things, they are now just completely ignoring them?
There is some very weird stuff going on. The French position - they're waiting for the EMA to report, it's just that they thought that was going to be today and it turns out they have to wait for Thursday instead - does seem to contain a kernel of logic. Presumably once the EMA (almost certainly) says it's fine then they can get started again?
The Dutch, meanwhile, have just stopped until at least 29th March. Why? Have they elected to do their own, unnecessarily long investigation into this thing, or was it just an arbitrary date plucked from thin air in a panic? Who knows what's going on?
And all the time, the other obvious question: why all the panic about one vaccine, when the same, very likely coincidental rather than causal, link exists with Pfizer?
I was clearly wrong. The mark of a clever person is knowing, accepting, and being comfortable with the fact that they don’t know everything and must defer to others from time to time.
You may not know everything but it's also useful to read enough to be sure people aren't trying to pull the wool over your eyes.
I suspect that's how this started but you can tell what way it's going to end. France being a vaccine sceptic country is going to end up discouraging their citizens from being vaccinated by focusing the news on all the wrong things.
Re: Hartlepool, wouldn't it make sense for Labour to field a WOMAN for the by-election?
Note that this is pretty standard in US, when an incumbent is forced to resign due to allegations of sexual misconduct, for his party to actively recruit and back a woman to replace him.
That is precisely how US Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) one of the Republicans in US House who voted to impeach Trumpsky (after his Putsch) got into public office in the first place.
When a GOP state legislator (an evangelical firefighter no less) got caught up in a gay sex scandal, the party persuaded him to resign, then engineered the appointment of JHB to the vacancy. Her position was confirmed by voters at next election, then ran for Congress in 2010, won, and has been re-elected every two years since.
Re: Hartlepool, wouldn't it make sense for Labour to field a WOMAN for the by-election?
Note that this is pretty standard in US, when an incumbent is forced to resign due to allegations of sexual misconduct, for his party to actively recruit and back a woman to replace him.
That is precisely how US Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) one of the Republicans in US House who voted to impeach Trumpsky (after his Putsch) got into public office in the first place.
When a GOP state legislator (an evangelical firefighter no less) got caught up in a gay sex scandal, the party persuaded him to resign, then engineered the appointment of JHB to the vacancy. Her position was confirmed by voters at next election, then ran for Congress in 2010, won, and has been re-elected every two years since.
Let a woman loose in Hartlepool!
Labour are going to have a huge fight about the candidate. The left are going to try Starmer.
Positive tests are cases. It's how it's been defined for a year now.
Symptoms have never been a factor.
They have, as previously you were far less likely to be tested if asymptomatic. That's no longer the case with the widespread use of LFTs.
No they haven't. There's been routine asymptomatic testing in care homes, in hospitals, and via Test & Trace almost all along.
An asymptomatic care or hospital staff member testing positive has been classed as a case not a test.
We're talking at cross purposes. Symptoms are a factor, as previously you were far less likely to be tested if asymptomatic (Idid not say it didn't happen). At the moment, the entire secondary school cohort, along with the employees of tens of thousands of businesses, are being tested a couple of times a week. That will make a big difference to the numbers of positive tests.
So it's incorrect to say they have plateaued. Not comparing apples with apples.
I was clearly wrong. The mark of a clever person is knowing, accepting, and being comfortable with the fact that they don’t know everything and must defer to others from time to time.
I have met extremely intelligent people who didn't realise that their cleverness didn't automatically grant them better understanding of a new field than knowing the corpus of knowledge for that field.
Lord Sumption is the perfect example of that.
There's no automaticity on being an expert in pandemics and epidemiology just because you're an expert in jurisprudence.
Re: Hartlepool, wouldn't it make sense for Labour to field a WOMAN for the by-election?
Note that this is pretty standard in US, when an incumbent is forced to resign due to allegations of sexual misconduct, for his party to actively recruit and back a woman to replace him.
That is precisely how US Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) one of the Republicans in US House who voted to impeach Trumpsky (after his Putsch) got into public office in the first place.
When a GOP state legislator (an evangelical firefighter no less) got caught up in a gay sex scandal, the party persuaded him to resign, then engineered the appointment of JHB to the vacancy. Her position was confirmed by voters at next election, then ran for Congress in 2010, won, and has been re-elected every two years since.
Let a woman loose in Hartlepool!
I'm sure it was on here that I saw the story about a "lady" urinating on the Hartlepool high street at 3pm on a Sunday afternoon.
Everything down, apart from cases which are plateauing. This is because of a rise in reported cases in the 0-14 cohort
The vaccine effect is shown strongly in this graph as well - 65+ plummeting below everyone younger.
That’s the best graph at explaining what’s going on. A bunch of asymptotic kids, who would never normally have been tested, are being picked up by the schools testing everyone.
Yup. Exactly.
Will soon be a problem unless the government can properly communicate this PDQ.
Is there also going to be a problem with the death statistics before too long?
When there was a lot of virus, the numbers dying of something other than Covid during the 28 day window after testing positive roughly balanced out those dying of Covid untested or after more than 28 days.
As the vaccines are better at stopping serious cases than mild cases, that implies "with but not of" will eventually skew the statistics.
It might be difficult to reach zero deaths, particularly if there is still any transmission in hospitals.
Yup. I was thinking exactly this last night!
It’s certain, I think, for exactly the reasons you state.
Again, something the government needs to get in front of quickly, as it’s going to kick in pretty soon.
The Brexit vote will be lifelong Labour voters who couldn't bring themselves to vote Tory even to Get Brexit Done.
They should return to Labour if BXP isn't there. If they go Tory that should be major shocking news.
All across the red wall the astonishing sight of the 2019 GE was watching solid Labour voters turning out to vote Tory in large numbers. I sampled both polling stations and then boxes from Labour areas and they were record turnout gone blue.
It started off as Brexit. But its bigger than that. People aren't voting for Brexit cos it means Brexit. They're voting for it and then the Tories because they hope it means prosperity and pride, two things that have largely eroded away from places like Hartlepools.
If you look at the council it is a Tory / Independent coalition with just 8 Labour councillors left. People turn out to vote for lunatics and crazies in an "independent" group rather than Labour. So at the very least expect the Labour vote and turnout to be down and once they get a taste of not voting for Labour they keep doing it.
There were plenty that couldn’t bring themselves to vote blue after a lifetime of Labour. If Hartlepool shows that BXP is a gateway drug to voting Tory then anyone backing anything other than a Tory majority in 2024 is going to be shirtless.
Still feels like the big realignment in British politics is incomplete but I think it’s going to need AT LEAST another general election to see what the anti-Tory voting coalition coalesces around.
Just back from vaccination centre in Ealing where I had to queue for around half an hour to get the AZN jab. Not feeling as though I’m about to succumb to a blood clot so far ...
It sounds like turnout was brisk.
Macron's stupidity didn't seem to do much damage to the reputation of AZ over here, fortunately. We can only hope that public confidence continues to hold.
Maybe it's not done damage here because so many have had it with no ill effects and we have this experience. If we were starting out with it now - who knows?
I'm a little concerned that if Europe goes down the vaccine passport route that some countries may not recognise a UK citizen's vaccination status if it specifies the Oxford/AZ vaccine.
Re: Hartlepool, wouldn't it make sense for Labour to field a WOMAN for the by-election?
Note that this is pretty standard in US, when an incumbent is forced to resign due to allegations of sexual misconduct, for his party to actively recruit and back a woman to replace him.
That is precisely how US Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) one of the Republicans in US House who voted to impeach Trumpsky (after his Putsch) got into public office in the first place.
When a GOP state legislator (an evangelical firefighter no less) got caught up in a gay sex scandal, the party persuaded him to resign, then engineered the appointment of JHB to the vacancy. Her position was confirmed by voters at next election, then ran for Congress in 2010, won, and has been re-elected every two years since.
The issue with that is that the likely female candidate is Laura Pidcock - and that would do them no favours at all.
In the example I cited, Jaime Herrera Beutler was NOT a big-time (or even small-time) politico, let alone a re-tred, when she was plucked from obscurity.
Indeed, she was picked because she HAD no record, was an evangelical Christian AND a Latina ("call me a racist for voting Republican? I'm voting for the Hispanic!) and of course did NOT have the pesky X chromosome.
Seems to me that IF Labour is going to have a chance in this by-election, they should think about selecting the best WOMAN the can find to run. Perhaps a local council member, maybe an impressive parachutist. (IF she was a former paratrooper that'd be a bonus!)
Re: Hartlepool, wouldn't it make sense for Labour to field a WOMAN for the by-election?
Note that this is pretty standard in US, when an incumbent is forced to resign due to allegations of sexual misconduct, for his party to actively recruit and back a woman to replace him.
That is precisely how US Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) one of the Republicans in US House who voted to impeach Trumpsky (after his Putsch) got into public office in the first place.
When a GOP state legislator (an evangelical firefighter no less) got caught up in a gay sex scandal, the party persuaded him to resign, then engineered the appointment of JHB to the vacancy. Her position was confirmed by voters at next election, then ran for Congress in 2010, won, and has been re-elected every two years since.
The issue with that is that the likely female candidate is Laura Pidcock - and that would do them no favours at all.
Even if it isn't Pidcock - they will make such a sing and dance about it being A WOMAN that it will utterly negate any positive electoral effect.
Everything down, apart from cases which are plateauing. This is because of a rise in reported cases in the 0-14 cohort
The vaccine effect is shown strongly in this graph as well - 65+ plummeting below everyone younger.
That’s the best graph at explaining what’s going on. A bunch of asymptotic kids, who would never normally have been tested, are being picked up by the schools testing everyone.
Yup. Exactly.
Will soon be a problem unless the government can properly communicate this PDQ.
Is there also going to be a problem with the death statistics before too long?
When there was a lot of virus, the numbers dying of something other than Covid during the 28 day window after testing positive roughly balanced out those dying of Covid untested or after more than 28 days.
As the vaccines are better at stopping serious cases than mild cases, that implies "with but not of" will eventually skew the statistics.
It might be difficult to reach zero deaths, particularly if there is still any transmission in hospitals.
I think that the vaccines are highly effective against transmission, with the partial exception of some of the variants (until updated vaccines are available), so hopefully vaccination will bring the case rate right down too, and that won't be an issue.
Everything down, apart from cases which are plateauing. This is because of a rise in reported cases in the 0-14 cohort
The vaccine effect is shown strongly in this graph as well - 65+ plummeting below everyone younger.
That’s the best graph at explaining what’s going on. A bunch of asymptotic kids, who would never normally have been tested, are being picked up by the schools testing everyone.
Yup. Exactly.
Will soon be a problem unless the government can properly communicate this PDQ.
Is there also going to be a problem with the death statistics before too long?
When there was a lot of virus, the numbers dying of something other than Covid during the 28 day window after testing positive roughly balanced out those dying of Covid untested or after more than 28 days.
As the vaccines are better at stopping serious cases than mild cases, that implies "with but not of" will eventually skew the statistics.
It might be difficult to reach zero deaths, particularly if there is still any transmission in hospitals.
As a close enough rule of thumb, about 0.1% of the cases count on any given day should become deaths-from-other-causes within 28 days of the positive being taken. More or less. It'll change a bit based on the ages and health composition of the positive cases (probably between 0.05% and 0.2%, but as cases are skewing less elderly these days, about 0.1%-ish will be a rule of thumb).
The number of deaths from covid after 28 days have been outweighing the deaths-from-other-causes-in-28-days to date (probably quite a lot during the peak with the new variant), but as the case fatality rate continues to drop, it will eventually be significant.
It's been usually 2.5%-3.5% of positive cases and has been dropping considerably as vaccinations have been taking hold. The CFR of the 7-day averages as of a week ago was 1.1%, so about a tenth (or so) of the deaths were probably non-covid, and the post-28-day deaths is quite possibly no longer balancing these.
I'd say that when the CFR gets down past 0.2%, it'll probably no longer be worth monitoring them at all.
Just back from vaccination centre in Ealing where I had to queue for around half an hour to get the AZN jab. Not feeling as though I’m about to succumb to a blood clot so far ...
It sounds like turnout was brisk.
Macron's stupidity didn't seem to do much damage to the reputation of AZ over here, fortunately. We can only hope that public confidence continues to hold.
Maybe it's not done damage here because so many have had it with no ill effects and we have this experience. If we were starting out with it now - who knows?
I'm a little concerned that if Europe goes down the vaccine passport route that some countries may not recognise a UK citizen's vaccination status if it specifies the Oxford/AZ vaccine.
In that eventuality they can go funk themselves, we can all spend our tourist pounds happily elsewhere in a place not run by reactionary morons.
The Gambling Commission is proposing restricting clients with draconian rules to only losing £100 per month on their betting yet has somehow allowed a fairly obvious ponzi scheme to run off with £100m of client funds.
The Gambling Commission is proposing restricting clients with draconian rules to only losing £100 per month on their betting yet has somehow allowed a fairly obvious ponzi scheme to run off with £100m of client funds.
Just back from vaccination centre in Ealing where I had to queue for around half an hour to get the AZN jab. Not feeling as though I’m about to succumb to a blood clot so far ...
It sounds like turnout was brisk.
Macron's stupidity didn't seem to do much damage to the reputation of AZ over here, fortunately. We can only hope that public confidence continues to hold.
Maybe it's not done damage here because so many have had it with no ill effects and we have this experience. If we were starting out with it now - who knows?
I'm a little concerned that if Europe goes down the vaccine passport route that some countries may not recognise a UK citizen's vaccination status if it specifies the Oxford/AZ vaccine.
Well, as I related in a previous thread, the Turkish tourism minister was on the breakfast news the other morning beckoning UK custom with an open door policy. They've seen the direction the vaccination program is going in and they want a bigger share of our market.
If the EU slams the door shut then your typical hotelier on the Turkish Aegean will have more customers than he knows what to do with come about July time. Any Sun seekers who can't get in there will have to go to Cornwall, or perhaps ship out to Florida, and Spain, Portugal, Greece, Croatia and Cyprus will all have to fight over the limited supply of available Germans. If they're not still under restrictions at that point, that is.
As I also said previously one would expect common sense to reassert itself before things get that silly, but many European countries are not presently behaving as rational actors, so who knows?
Positive tests are cases. It's how it's been defined for a year now.
Symptoms have never been a factor.
They have, as previously you were far less likely to be tested if asymptomatic. That's no longer the case with the widespread use of LFTs.
No they haven't. There's been routine asymptomatic testing in care homes, in hospitals, and via Test & Trace almost all along.
An asymptomatic care or hospital staff member testing positive has been classed as a case not a test.
We're talking at cross purposes. Symptoms are a factor, as previously you were far less likely to be tested if asymptomatic (Idid not say it didn't happen). At the moment, the entire secondary school cohort, along with the employees of tens of thousands of businesses, are being tested a couple of times a week. That will make a big difference to the numbers of positive tests.
So it's incorrect to say they have plateaued. Not comparing apples with apples.
Politico.com - Newsom: California recall appears to have enough signatures
OAKLAND — California Gov. Gavin Newsom acknowledged Tuesday morning that an effort to recall him is likely to qualify for the ballot, setting the stage for an expensive, bruising battle that will draw national interest in the coming months.
"This one appears to have the requisite signatures," the Democratic governor said during an appearance on "The View."
While the recall effort was initially viewed as a long shot, organizers have capitalized on pandemic discontent to collect what they say are more than enough signatures to trigger an election. They must turn in around 1.5 million valid signatures by Wednesday, after which elections officials will spend weeks gauging whether proponents have hit the official threshold.
But Newsom is no longer waiting for elections officials before weighing in. After months of deflecting questions as the recall effort gathered strength, Newsom embraced a defensive campaign on Monday. He publicly addressed the recall for the first time and rolled out endorsements from a bevy of national elected officials such as Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Cory Booker. . . .
"Immigration, issues related to low-carbon green growth, our climate policies … [policies] related to our our advancement to end the death penalty or increase the minimum wage or advance pay equity," Newsom said on "The View." "I say that quite literally, that’s what’s at stake in this election, in this recall."
Fellow Democrats have echoed that rhetoric, encouraging their followers to combat what Warren called a "naked partisan power grab" fueled by "extreme right-wing Republicans."
Republicans haven't won a statewide office in California since 2006. Democrats have overwhelming control of the state Capitol, and 63 percent of voters backed President Joe Biden in November. But a gubernatorial recall would provide Republicans a rare opportunity to take the state's top office with a plurality of support in the right circumstances. Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger became governor in 2003 in the state's only gubernatorial recall thus far.
Recall proponents counter that Newsom's mismanagement is to blame for the recall. They point to oscillating restrictions that have burdened businesses and contributed to many California children being locked out of classrooms for months. . . .
Comment - Note that 1,495,709 valid voter signatures required to validate recall petition, with deadline March 17, 2021. If it qualifies, special recall election will be held later this year, within 60-80 days of sig. verfication.
My own guess, is that GOP falls short, meaning that Newsom survives, but his political career is essentially capped, and he will be unlikely to run (for Gov or anything else) in 2022.
Reminds me of Ron Burgundy talking about the fact that he has lots of 'leather bound books' in Anchorman.
I like leather-bound books. I don't own any, but I'd quite like to.
I still have a rather lovely leather bound pocket bible, complete with brass corners, from my school days.
A nice thing to have. I'm an atheist, but even so I'd have used and treasured such a book.
I have a collection of nice folio-society volumes, but in terms of valuable books then all I have is a reasonably ok set of Churchill's 'The World Crisis' - without the Eastern Front volume.
"There is now talk of people who have received one AstraZeneca jab needing to start again and be given two jabs of a rival vaccine."
At what point do AZ just say f*** it, we’re unilaterally cancelling the EU contract and you can sue our arses? It’s not as if there isn’t a massive global demand for vaccines right now.
The Gambling Commission is proposing restricting clients with draconian rules to only losing £100 per month on their betting yet has somehow allowed a fairly obvious ponzi scheme to run off with £100m of client funds.
I’m confused as to why they have linked the two. Are we going to hand out some of our new nuclear warheads to kids to use? I was in favour of the increase, but I really don’t think that’s responsible.
I’m confused why they have linked the two. Are we going to hand out some of our new nuclear warheads to kids to use? I was in favour of the increase, but I really don’t think that’s responsible.
As for the nuclear weapons I suspect the reason for the increase is that it's a short term increase while a new design is finalised before we replace the existing warheads with a smaller number of more advanced warheads with more accurate targeting.
So it's a short term story and expense leading to a longer term cost saving but no-one is going to say that out loud.
"There is now talk of people who have received one AstraZeneca jab needing to start again and be given two jabs of a rival vaccine."
That's completely insane and wasteful of both the initial AZ doses and the unnecessary extra Pfizer dose.
If the Germans go down that route it will set their vaccination scheme back by months by not having enough Pfizer/Moderna doses now that we know J&J is late and the EU has so far failed to buy any Novavax doses.
Just back from vaccination centre in Ealing where I had to queue for around half an hour to get the AZN jab. Not feeling as though I’m about to succumb to a blood clot so far ...
It sounds like turnout was brisk.
Macron's stupidity didn't seem to do much damage to the reputation of AZ over here, fortunately. We can only hope that public confidence continues to hold.
And this is why Europeans telling the U.K. to butt out of the discussion can eff off. Public confidence in the U.K. is high but not guaranteed, especially when it is perceived that there are alternatives. The U.K. simply can’t sit back and let the reputation of the vaccine be trashed, and absolutely must make the case, repeatedly, that European Govt’s are being irrational and taking decisions not based on science. And that’s even before you move onto the impact in the rest of the world.
The Gambling Commission is proposing restricting clients with draconian rules to only losing £100 per month on their betting yet has somehow allowed a fairly obvious ponzi scheme to run off with £100m of client funds.
Positive tests are cases. It's how it's been defined for a year now.
Symptoms have never been a factor.
They have, as previously you were far less likely to be tested if asymptomatic. That's no longer the case with the widespread use of LFTs.
No they haven't. There's been routine asymptomatic testing in care homes, in hospitals, and via Test & Trace almost all along.
An asymptomatic care or hospital staff member testing positive has been classed as a case not a test.
We're talking at cross purposes. Symptoms are a factor, as previously you were far less likely to be tested if asymptomatic (Idid not say it didn't happen). At the moment, the entire secondary school cohort, along with the employees of tens of thousands of businesses, are being tested a couple of times a week. That will make a big difference to the numbers of positive tests.
So it's incorrect to say they have plateaued. Not comparing apples with apples.
Exactly!
I'm keeping a record and every day I try to predict what the stats will be for new infections/deaths/hospitalisations.
For today I'd predicted 6400/158/485
Figures came in at 5294/110/464
Today's figures were excellent and I wish everyone could see this. I warned three weeks ago that the stats post schools/mass LFT would be misinterpreted.
"There is now talk of people who have received one AstraZeneca jab needing to start again and be given two jabs of a rival vaccine."
Thank you for the link - and it gets worse...
The director general of Italy’s medicines agency said the benefits of the jab outweighed the risks but that the decision to suspend was taken at political level.
“We got to the point of a suspension because several European countries, including Germany and France, preferred to interrupt vaccinations [...] to put them on hold in order to carry out checks. The choice is a political one,” Nicola Magrini told the la Repubblica newspaper.
There have been eight deaths and four cases of serious side-effects following vaccinations in Italy, he added.
On Tuesday Belgium’s health minister attacked the EU suspensions as “irresponsible”.
Frank Vandenbroucke said, “It's a kind of waterfall of decisions. I spoke to my Portuguese colleague yesterday. There they decided to suspend the vaccination campaign, but they have no data to do so.
“We are never going to get Europe vaccinated like this. Then we're going to get a third, fourth, fifth wave. We have to be careful with those chain reactions,” he said.
Unbelievably, the nations of the EU (and this time it's not the central institution itself that's responsible) have found yet another means to create a new divide amongst themselves: a large block of trouser wetters on one side, and furious Belgians, Poles and a handful more on the other. It's profoundly stupid.
Just back from vaccination centre in Ealing where I had to queue for around half an hour to get the AZN jab. Not feeling as though I’m about to succumb to a blood clot so far ...
It sounds like turnout was brisk.
Macron's stupidity didn't seem to do much damage to the reputation of AZ over here, fortunately. We can only hope that public confidence continues to hold.
Maybe it's not done damage here because so many have had it with no ill effects and we have this experience. If we were starting out with it now - who knows?
I'm a little concerned that if Europe goes down the vaccine passport route that some countries may not recognise a UK citizen's vaccination status if it specifies the Oxford/AZ vaccine.
Well, as I related in a previous thread, the Turkish tourism minister was on the breakfast news the other morning beckoning UK custom with an open door policy. They've seen the direction the vaccination program is going in and they want a bigger share of our market.
If the EU slams the door shut then your typical hotelier on the Turkish Aegean will have more customers than he knows what to do with come about July time. Any Sun seekers who can't get in there will have to go to Cornwall, or perhaps ship out to Florida, and Spain, Portugal, Greece, Croatia and Cyprus will all have to fight over the limited supply of available Germans. If they're not still under restrictions at that point, that is.
As I also said previously one would expect common sense to reassert itself before things get that silly, but many European countries are not presently behaving as rational actors, so who knows?
The Spanish would break ranks on any such nonsense side the first 20-30 seconds. The Greeks wouldn't even hesitate that long.
Everything down, apart from cases which are plateauing. This is because of a rise in reported cases in the 0-14 cohort
The vaccine effect is shown strongly in this graph as well - 65+ plummeting below everyone younger.
That’s the best graph at explaining what’s going on. A bunch of asymptotic kids, who would never normally have been tested, are being picked up by the schools testing everyone.
Yup. Exactly.
Will soon be a problem unless the government can properly communicate this PDQ.
Is there also going to be a problem with the death statistics before too long?
When there was a lot of virus, the numbers dying of something other than Covid during the 28 day window after testing positive roughly balanced out those dying of Covid untested or after more than 28 days.
As the vaccines are better at stopping serious cases than mild cases, that implies "with but not of" will eventually skew the statistics.
It might be difficult to reach zero deaths, particularly if there is still any transmission in hospitals.
As a close enough rule of thumb, about 0.1% of the cases count on any given day should become deaths-from-other-causes within 28 days of the positive being taken. More or less. It'll change a bit based on the ages and health composition of the positive cases (probably between 0.05% and 0.2%, but as cases are skewing less elderly these days, about 0.1%-ish will be a rule of thumb).
The number of deaths from covid after 28 days have been outweighing the deaths-from-other-causes-in-28-days to date (probably quite a lot during the peak with the new variant), but as the case fatality rate continues to drop, it will eventually be significant.
It's been usually 2.5%-3.5% of positive cases and has been dropping considerably as vaccinations have been taking hold. The CFR of the 7-day averages as of a week ago was 1.1%, so about a tenth (or so) of the deaths were probably non-covid, and the post-28-day deaths is quite possibly no longer balancing these.
I'd say that when the CFR gets down past 0.2%, it'll probably no longer be worth monitoring them at all.
Thanks for putting some numbers on my hand waving.
That means that if the current rates of change - with cases flat and deaths falling at about 30% a week - it will take roughly a month for the death count to become meaningless.
Clear, at least to Gavin Newsome, that he will be subject to a special recall election this year.
An NOT a punter, but reckon that, as betting opportunities go, the California Recall 2021 will make the 2021 Harlepool by-election look like a church-hall bingo game.
I’m confused as to why they have linked the two. Are we going to hand out some of our new nuclear warheads to kids to use? I was in favour of the increase, but I really don’t think that’s responsible.
When on a tour of Harwell, when I was at school, a chap with a lead cell on a trolley allowed us to have a look through the lead glass window. At a cubic centimetre of plutonium. Which he assured us was weapons grade....
Just back from vaccination centre in Ealing where I had to queue for around half an hour to get the AZN jab. Not feeling as though I’m about to succumb to a blood clot so far ...
It sounds like turnout was brisk.
Macron's stupidity didn't seem to do much damage to the reputation of AZ over here, fortunately. We can only hope that public confidence continues to hold.
And this is why Europeans telling the U.K. to butt out of the discussion can eff off. Public confidence in the U.K. is high but not guaranteed, especially when it is perceived that there are alternatives. The U.K. simply can’t sit back and let the reputation of the vaccine be trashed, and absolutely must make the case, repeatedly, that European Govt’s are being irrational and taking decisions not based on science. And that’s even before you move onto the impact in the rest of the world.
Indeed. The utter shambles we have seen this week on the continent affects all of us. The idea that we shouldn’t have a view is for the birds. Someone needs to hold these reckless idiots to account.
Just back from vaccination centre in Ealing where I had to queue for around half an hour to get the AZN jab. Not feeling as though I’m about to succumb to a blood clot so far ...
It sounds like turnout was brisk.
Macron's stupidity didn't seem to do much damage to the reputation of AZ over here, fortunately. We can only hope that public confidence continues to hold.
And this is why Europeans telling the U.K. to butt out of the discussion can eff off. Public confidence in the U.K. is high but not guaranteed, especially when it is perceived that there are alternatives. The U.K. simply can’t sit back and let the reputation of the vaccine be trashed, and absolutely must make the case, repeatedly, that European Govt’s are being irrational and taking decisions not based on science. And that’s even before you move onto the impact in the rest of the world.
One gains the impression that the Government feels it must restrain itself from saying very much about the shitstorm across the Channel out of tact. It's much like when the debacle over the mooted suspension of the NI protocol by the Commission erupted and ministers refused to be anything other than emollient.
I think they're relying on calm and repeated reassurances, which has always done the trick before. However, it might also help if Johnson, Whitty and Valance were rolled out for one of their periodic news conferences on Friday, which would give an additional opportunity to go through the numbers on this.
Clear, at least to Gavin Newsome, that he will be subject to a special recall election this year.
An NOT a punter, but reckon that, as betting opportunities go, the California Recall 2021 will make the 2021 Harlepool by-election look like a church-hall bingo game.
Will there still be enough people living in California to vote against him, or will those who hate him have all have moved out by the time of the recall ballot?
The UN turns round and says "That's nice. But who the fuck are you? We only have membership of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Now bugger off, or we'll have the Catalonians wanting to ratify...."
Just back from vaccination centre in Ealing where I had to queue for around half an hour to get the AZN jab. Not feeling as though I’m about to succumb to a blood clot so far ...
It sounds like turnout was brisk.
Macron's stupidity didn't seem to do much damage to the reputation of AZ over here, fortunately. We can only hope that public confidence continues to hold.
Maybe it's not done damage here because so many have had it with no ill effects and we have this experience. If we were starting out with it now - who knows?
I'm a little concerned that if Europe goes down the vaccine passport route that some countries may not recognise a UK citizen's vaccination status if it specifies the Oxford/AZ vaccine.
In that eventuality they can go funk themselves, we can all spend our tourist pounds happily elsewhere in a place not run by reactionary morons.
I doubt the Greeks and Spanish will want to deprive themselves of all our tourist £££££.
Anyway, as I understand it, the point the Frogs etc. are currently making is not that the vaccine doesn't work, it's that it kills people. So I doubt they'll prevent AZ vaccinees travelling.
Re: Hartlepool, wouldn't it make sense for Labour to field a WOMAN for the by-election?
Note that this is pretty standard in US, when an incumbent is forced to resign due to allegations of sexual misconduct, for his party to actively recruit and back a woman to replace him.
That is precisely how US Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) one of the Republicans in US House who voted to impeach Trumpsky (after his Putsch) got into public office in the first place.
When a GOP state legislator (an evangelical firefighter no less) got caught up in a gay sex scandal, the party persuaded him to resign, then engineered the appointment of JHB to the vacancy. Her position was confirmed by voters at next election, then ran for Congress in 2010, won, and has been re-elected every two years since.
Let a woman loose in Hartlepool!
I'm sure it was on here that I saw the story about a "lady" urinating on the Hartlepool high street at 3pm on a Sunday afternoon.
Neil Ferguson on BBC News just said that neither he, nor anyone else on SAGE, even considered the idea of closing the borders at the start of the pandemic.
Just back from vaccination centre in Ealing where I had to queue for around half an hour to get the AZN jab. Not feeling as though I’m about to succumb to a blood clot so far ...
It sounds like turnout was brisk.
Macron's stupidity didn't seem to do much damage to the reputation of AZ over here, fortunately. We can only hope that public confidence continues to hold.
And this is why Europeans telling the U.K. to butt out of the discussion can eff off. Public confidence in the U.K. is high but not guaranteed, especially when it is perceived that there are alternatives. The U.K. simply can’t sit back and let the reputation of the vaccine be trashed, and absolutely must make the case, repeatedly, that European Govt’s are being irrational and taking decisions not based on science. And that’s even before you move onto the impact in the rest of the world.
One gains the impression that the Government feels it must restrain itself from saying very much about the shitstorm across the Channel out of tact. It's much like when the debacle over the mooted suspension of the NI protocol by the Commission erupted and ministers refused to be anything other than emollient.
I think they're relying on calm and repeated reassurances, which has always done the trick before. However, it might also help if Johnson, Whitty and Valance were rolled out for one of their periodic news conferences on Friday, which would give an additional opportunity to go through the numbers on this.
One additional problem is that in order to debunk the misinformation about Az, people are drawing attention (by way of comparison) to the figures on adverse effects for other vaccines (Pfizer) as well. Because people don’t realise that “adverse events” doesn’t mean “causal link” it is inevitably creating an environment that is undermining vaccines in general. People see figures showing hundreds of thousands of “adverse events” upto and including hundreds of deaths, and understandably people will get worried.
NYT - Steven Spurrier, Who Upended Wine World With a Tasting, Dies at 79 In what came to be called the Judgment of Paris, he arranged for California and French wines to be compared in a blind tasting. The verdict was a shocker.
The world was paying little attention on May 24, 1976, when a small wine tasting was held in Paris at the Intercontinental Hotel. But the echoes of that tasting, later called the Judgment of Paris, have resounded for decades.
The instigator, Steven Spurrier, an Englishman who owned a wine shop and wine school in Paris, had set up a blind tasting of 20 wines — 10 white and 10 red — for nine French judges, including some of the top names in the French wine and food establishment.
Of the whites, all made from the chardonnay grape, six were from California, four from Burgundy. The reds, all made largely or entirely from cabernet sauvignon, included six from California and four from Bordeaux.
It was hardly thought to be a fair fight. As has been recounted countless times, the judges were thoroughly convinced that California wines were inferior.
“Ah, back to France,” one judge sighed after tasting a Napa Valley chardonnay. Another, sniffing a Bâtard-Montrachet, declared: “This is definitely California. It has no nose.”
When all was done, a shocking consensus revealed the favorite wines to be a 1973 chardonnay from Chateau Montelena and a 1973 cabernet sauvignon from Stag’s Leap Cellars, both in Napa Valley.
The Americans celebrated, the French shrank in consternation, and everlasting fame awaited Mr. Spurrier, who went on to a long career as a wine entrepreneur
Mr. Spurrier died on March 9 at his home in the village of Litton Cheney in Dorset, England. He was 79. The cause was cancer, said Simon McMurtrie, chairman and publisher of the Académie du Vin Library, a wine imprint founded by Mr. Spurrier.
The Paris tasting might have swiftly been forgotten had not a single reporter, George M. Taber of Time magazine, been on hand to witness the events. His article, “Judgment of Paris,” gave the California wine industry a much-needed boost, lending its vintners international credibility at a time when they were searching for critical approval and public acceptance. Marketers used the tasting to sell California wines all over the world. . . . .
Why did ex-Labour and non-voters in the north switch to the Brexit party in large numbers?
There seem, from such polling as I have seen, to be three reasons:
1) Brexit 2) Labour being led by a racist Britain hating lunatic (I paraphrase) 3) They voted for Labour for decades and nothing got better.
So, where do we stand with that?
1) has happened. Yes, yes, I know it’s a shambles and Johnson and the EU between them keep finding new and egregious ways to screw things up. But that is now a settled issue. Nobody apart possibly from the Greens will be standing on a rejoin platform.
2) has resolved itself. Corbyn is no longer even a Labour MP. Starmer may be bland but he’s not getting the huge negatives the Jezaster had.
3) remains salient and will doubtless in light of Darlington etc dominate the campaign for the Tories, along with vaccines.
But I’m doubtful if that is salient enough for Brexit former Labour voters to switch to the Tories. More likely they will stay at home now.
So although the Tories have a decent chance of a gain I think Labour are the value here.
That said, much depends on the candidate. I agree with @eek that Laura Pidcock will definitely be interested and if, God forbid, she is selected Labour will be lucky to come third.
The UN turns round and says "That's nice. But who the fuck are you? We only have membership of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Now bugger off, or we'll have the Catalonians wanting to ratify...."
Sadly, Boris's shit nukes have given Sturgeon a (very minor) shot in the arm.
Neil Ferguson on BBC News just said that neither he, nor anyone else on SAGE, even considered the idea of closing the borders at the start of the pandemic.
Just back from vaccination centre in Ealing where I had to queue for around half an hour to get the AZN jab. Not feeling as though I’m about to succumb to a blood clot so far ...
It sounds like turnout was brisk.
Macron's stupidity didn't seem to do much damage to the reputation of AZ over here, fortunately. We can only hope that public confidence continues to hold.
Maybe it's not done damage here because so many have had it with no ill effects and we have this experience. If we were starting out with it now - who knows?
I'm a little concerned that if Europe goes down the vaccine passport route that some countries may not recognise a UK citizen's vaccination status if it specifies the Oxford/AZ vaccine.
In that eventuality they can go funk themselves, we can all spend our tourist pounds happily elsewhere in a place not run by reactionary morons.
I doubt the Greeks and Spanish will want to deprive themselves of all our tourist £££££.
Anyway, as I understand it, the point the Frogs etc. are currently making is not that the vaccine doesn't work, it's that it kills people. So I doubt they'll prevent AZ vaccinees travelling.
Lol, I think the EU vaccine passport will be based on EMA approvals and AZ doesn't have any issues on that basis. It's the idiotic national politicians and regulators that are creating issues from nothing.
The UN turns round and says "That's nice. But who the fuck are you? We only have membership of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Now bugger off, or we'll have the Catalonians wanting to ratify...."
Sadly, Boris's shit nukes have given Sturgeon a (very minor) shot in the arm.
No. 10 certainly DOES appear willing & able, to throw the First Minister a lifeline whenever she seems to be in any jeopardy.
Is there method to the Prime Minister's madness? Or the other way around?? OR both at the same time???
Comments
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lockdown-delay-in-france-is-killing-people-macron-told-svg33sf6t
https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1371873416068919296
In this part of the world they’ve got large employers to arrange at-work vaccinations to encourage peer pressure, and completely booked out the Asian-language radio stations with public information ads.
When there was a lot of virus, the numbers dying of something other than Covid during the 28 day window after testing positive roughly balanced out those dying of Covid untested or after more than 28 days.
As the vaccines are better at stopping serious cases than mild cases, that implies "with but not of" will eventually skew the statistics.
It might be difficult to reach zero deaths, particularly if there is still any transmission in hospitals.
I was clearly wrong. The mark of a clever person is knowing, accepting, and being comfortable with the fact that they don’t know everything and must defer to others from time to time.
I find it hard to believe they sought to defend him on that basis.
That part of the world also had some bad experiences with bad doctors/vaccine rollout.
For Muslim communities the fact that the CIA set up a fake vaccine programme to find and kill Osama Bin Laden is one of those things that they remember and fuels theories.
The other thing is that because it costs money to call Pakistan/India/Bangladesh pretty much every person with South Asian heritage, particularly the oldies, has WhatsApp so they can call/message their family over there for free, the downside is that they get conspiracy theories on a regular basis via WhatsApp.
https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1368676834993446912
It’s like letting the helpdesk guy admin the core switch and the firewall.
PS for morale on my side - but Labour will take it back at the GE.
The Dutch, meanwhile, have just stopped until at least 29th March. Why? Have they elected to do their own, unnecessarily long investigation into this thing, or was it just an arbitrary date plucked from thin air in a panic? Who knows what's going on?
And all the time, the other obvious question: why all the panic about one vaccine, when the same, very likely coincidental rather than causal, link exists with Pfizer?
I suspect that's how this started but you can tell what way it's going to end. France being a vaccine sceptic country is going to end up discouraging their citizens from being vaccinated by focusing the news on all the wrong things.
There's no automaticity on being an expert in pandemics and epidemiology just because you're an expert in jurisprudence.
It's a classy place...
It’s certain, I think, for exactly the reasons you state.
Again, something the government needs to get in front of quickly, as it’s going to kick in pretty soon.
I'd need 40/1 to back Reform. Not far off tempting me at 33/1. Depends on the candidate.
Still feels like the big realignment in British politics is incomplete but I think it’s going to need AT LEAST another general election to see what the anti-Tory voting coalition coalesces around.
I'm a little concerned that if Europe goes down the vaccine passport route that some countries may not recognise a UK citizen's vaccination status if it specifies the Oxford/AZ vaccine.
Indeed, she was picked because she HAD no record, was an evangelical Christian AND a Latina ("call me a racist for voting Republican? I'm voting for the Hispanic!) and of course did NOT have the pesky X chromosome.
Seems to me that IF Labour is going to have a chance in this by-election, they should think about selecting the best WOMAN the can find to run. Perhaps a local council member, maybe an impressive parachutist. (IF she was a former paratrooper that'd be a bonus!)
Maybe Pidcock, maybe not.
https://twitter.com/mseltzermayr/status/1371849814531579918?s=20
More or less. It'll change a bit based on the ages and health composition of the positive cases (probably between 0.05% and 0.2%, but as cases are skewing less elderly these days, about 0.1%-ish will be a rule of thumb).
The number of deaths from covid after 28 days have been outweighing the deaths-from-other-causes-in-28-days to date (probably quite a lot during the peak with the new variant), but as the case fatality rate continues to drop, it will eventually be significant.
It's been usually 2.5%-3.5% of positive cases and has been dropping considerably as vaccinations have been taking hold. The CFR of the 7-day averages as of a week ago was 1.1%, so about a tenth (or so) of the deaths were probably non-covid, and the post-28-day deaths is quite possibly no longer balancing these.
I'd say that when the CFR gets down past 0.2%, it'll probably no longer be worth monitoring them at all.
https://twitter.com/RobinNiblett/status/1371866213366784002?s=20
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56401707
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1371880814326206471
If the EU slams the door shut then your typical hotelier on the Turkish Aegean will have more customers than he knows what to do with come about July time. Any Sun seekers who can't get in there will have to go to Cornwall, or perhaps ship out to Florida, and Spain, Portugal, Greece, Croatia and Cyprus will all have to fight over the limited supply of available Germans. If they're not still under restrictions at that point, that is.
As I also said previously one would expect common sense to reassert itself before things get that silly, but many European countries are not presently behaving as rational actors, so who knows?
https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1371869815657353220
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/merkels-government-war-over-astrazeneca-115706026.html
"There is now talk of people who have received one AstraZeneca jab needing to start again and be given two jabs of a rival vaccine."
Morons.
In truth, who knows what's going on over there?
Politico.com - Newsom: California recall appears to have enough signatures
OAKLAND — California Gov. Gavin Newsom acknowledged Tuesday morning that an effort to recall him is likely to qualify for the ballot, setting the stage for an expensive, bruising battle that will draw national interest in the coming months.
"This one appears to have the requisite signatures," the Democratic governor said during an appearance on "The View."
While the recall effort was initially viewed as a long shot, organizers have capitalized on pandemic discontent to collect what they say are more than enough signatures to trigger an election. They must turn in around 1.5 million valid signatures by Wednesday, after which elections officials will spend weeks gauging whether proponents have hit the official threshold.
But Newsom is no longer waiting for elections officials before weighing in. After months of deflecting questions as the recall effort gathered strength, Newsom embraced a defensive campaign on Monday. He publicly addressed the recall for the first time and rolled out endorsements from a bevy of national elected officials such as Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Cory Booker. . . .
"Immigration, issues related to low-carbon green growth, our climate policies … [policies] related to our our advancement to end the death penalty or increase the minimum wage or advance pay equity," Newsom said on "The View." "I say that quite literally, that’s what’s at stake in this election, in this recall."
Fellow Democrats have echoed that rhetoric, encouraging their followers to combat what Warren called a "naked partisan power grab" fueled by "extreme right-wing Republicans."
Republicans haven't won a statewide office in California since 2006. Democrats have overwhelming control of the state Capitol, and 63 percent of voters backed President Joe Biden in November. But a gubernatorial recall would provide Republicans a rare opportunity to take the state's top office with a plurality of support in the right circumstances. Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger became governor in 2003 in the state's only gubernatorial recall thus far.
Recall proponents counter that Newsom's mismanagement is to blame for the recall. They point to oscillating restrictions that have burdened businesses and contributed to many California children being locked out of classrooms for months. . . .
Comment - Note that 1,495,709 valid voter signatures required to validate recall petition, with deadline March 17, 2021. If it qualifies, special recall election will be held later this year, within 60-80 days of sig. verfication.
My own guess, is that GOP falls short, meaning that Newsom survives, but his political career is essentially capped, and he will be unlikely to run (for Gov or anything else) in 2022.
https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2021/03/16/newsom-california-recall-appears-to-have-enough-signatures-1368400
I have a collection of nice folio-society volumes, but in terms of valuable books then all I have is a reasonably ok set of Churchill's 'The World Crisis' - without the Eastern Front volume.
So it's a short term story and expense leading to a longer term cost saving but no-one is going to say that out loud.
If the Germans go down that route it will set their vaccination scheme back by months by not having enough Pfizer/Moderna doses now that we know J&J is late and the EU has so far failed to buy any Novavax doses.
For today I'd predicted 6400/158/485
Figures came in at 5294/110/464
Today's figures were excellent and I wish everyone could see this. I warned three weeks ago that the stats post schools/mass LFT would be misinterpreted.
The director general of Italy’s medicines agency said the benefits of the jab outweighed the risks but that the decision to suspend was taken at political level.
“We got to the point of a suspension because several European countries, including Germany and France, preferred to interrupt vaccinations [...] to put them on hold in order to carry out checks. The choice is a political one,” Nicola Magrini told the la Repubblica newspaper.
There have been eight deaths and four cases of serious side-effects following vaccinations in Italy, he added.
On Tuesday Belgium’s health minister attacked the EU suspensions as “irresponsible”.
Frank Vandenbroucke said, “It's a kind of waterfall of decisions. I spoke to my Portuguese colleague yesterday. There they decided to suspend the vaccination campaign, but they have no data to do so.
“We are never going to get Europe vaccinated like this. Then we're going to get a third, fourth, fifth wave. We have to be careful with those chain reactions,” he said.
Unbelievably, the nations of the EU (and this time it's not the central institution itself that's responsible) have found yet another means to create a new divide amongst themselves: a large block of trouser wetters on one side, and furious Belgians, Poles and a handful more on the other. It's profoundly stupid.
The Greeks wouldn't even hesitate that long.
That means that if the current rates of change - with cases flat and deaths falling at about 30% a week - it will take roughly a month for the death count to become meaningless.
Fingers crossed...
An NOT a punter, but reckon that, as betting opportunities go, the California Recall 2021 will make the 2021 Harlepool by-election look like a church-hall bingo game.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
I think they're relying on calm and repeated reassurances, which has always done the trick before. However, it might also help if Johnson, Whitty and Valance were rolled out for one of their periodic news conferences on Friday, which would give an additional opportunity to go through the numbers on this.
Anyway, as I understand it, the point the Frogs etc. are currently making is not that the vaccine doesn't work, it's that it kills people. So I doubt they'll prevent AZ vaccinees travelling.
Neil Ferguson on BBC News just said that neither he, nor anyone else on SAGE, even considered the idea of closing the borders at the start of the pandemic.
Why not?
Of course they will probably manage to have a shortlist of one.
In what came to be called the Judgment of Paris, he arranged for California and French wines to be compared in a blind tasting. The verdict was a shocker.
The world was paying little attention on May 24, 1976, when a small wine tasting was held in Paris at the Intercontinental Hotel. But the echoes of that tasting, later called the Judgment of Paris, have resounded for decades.
The instigator, Steven Spurrier, an Englishman who owned a wine shop and wine school in Paris, had set up a blind tasting of 20 wines — 10 white and 10 red — for nine French judges, including some of the top names in the French wine and food establishment.
Of the whites, all made from the chardonnay grape, six were from California, four from Burgundy. The reds, all made largely or entirely from cabernet sauvignon, included six from California and four from Bordeaux.
It was hardly thought to be a fair fight. As has been recounted countless times, the judges were thoroughly convinced that California wines were inferior.
“Ah, back to France,” one judge sighed after tasting a Napa Valley chardonnay. Another, sniffing a Bâtard-Montrachet, declared: “This is definitely California. It has no nose.”
When all was done, a shocking consensus revealed the favorite wines to be a 1973 chardonnay from Chateau Montelena and a 1973 cabernet sauvignon from Stag’s Leap Cellars, both in Napa Valley.
The Americans celebrated, the French shrank in consternation, and everlasting fame awaited Mr. Spurrier, who went on to a long career as a wine entrepreneur
Mr. Spurrier died on March 9 at his home in the village of Litton Cheney in Dorset, England. He was 79. The cause was cancer, said Simon McMurtrie, chairman and publisher of the Académie du Vin Library, a wine imprint founded by Mr. Spurrier.
The Paris tasting might have swiftly been forgotten had not a single reporter, George M. Taber of Time magazine, been on hand to witness the events. His article, “Judgment of Paris,” gave the California wine industry a much-needed boost, lending its vintners international credibility at a time when they were searching for critical approval and public acceptance. Marketers used the tasting to sell California wines all over the world. . . . .
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/16/dining/steven-spurrier-dead.html
There seem, from such polling as I have seen, to be three reasons:
1) Brexit
2) Labour being led by a racist Britain hating lunatic (I paraphrase)
3) They voted for Labour for decades and nothing got better.
So, where do we stand with that?
1) has happened. Yes, yes, I know it’s a shambles and Johnson and the EU between them keep finding new and egregious ways to screw things up. But that is now a settled issue. Nobody apart possibly from the Greens will be standing on a rejoin platform.
2) has resolved itself. Corbyn is no longer even a Labour MP. Starmer may be bland but he’s not getting the huge negatives the Jezaster had.
3) remains salient and will doubtless in light of Darlington etc dominate the campaign for the Tories, along with vaccines.
But I’m doubtful if that is salient enough for Brexit former Labour voters to switch to the Tories. More likely they will stay at home now.
So although the Tories have a decent chance of a gain I think Labour are the value here.
That said, much depends on the candidate. I agree with @eek that Laura Pidcock will definitely be interested and if, God forbid, she is selected Labour will be lucky to come third.
Is there method to the Prime Minister's madness? Or the other way around?? OR both at the same time???