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Ladbrokes make the Tories odds on favourites to take Hartlepool in the first Westminster by-election

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Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Floater said:
    Too late though. Their stupidity has caused untold damage.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Omnium said:

    Floater said:
    Is someone making a killing in the stock market(s) out of all this whipsawing?

    Genuine question, but hard to think answer is no.
    Not sure the stock market cares. Certainly any such impact is swamped by other things.

    Whatever else happens AZN have done well in their plan to not make money from this.
    What I am thinking of, are speculators (and not the good kind like here on PB) making various dealings based on insider knowledge, not just financial but even more important medical AND political.

    Not AZN directly, I did NOT mean that. Though does seem many PBers are what you could call "invested" in AZN, to put it mildly.

    As for the stock market(s) think they care about just about anything they want to care about. And this is on EVERYBODY's mind.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    GIN1138 said:

    I can't see the Tories taking this seat.

    Have you added in all the UKIPER/BREXITY Party voters from 2019 to the Conservative column? If you do it becomes quite clear.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Hartlepool did elect a Tory MP in Macmillan's 1959 landslide , but I expect Labour to hold the seat now - probably with a swing in its favour.It is not just a matter of Brexit having lost its salience - the Corbyn factor has disappeared. Had Tice not stood in 2019, I suspect Labour would have had a more comfortable win. The Tories require a 4.4% swing to take the seat - equivalent to a national poll lead of nearly 21%. We are not seeing much sign of that at present.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    David Davis has been busy tonight on Scottish matters.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    GIN1138 said:

    I can't see the Tories taking this seat.

    Have you added in all the UKIPER/BREXITY Party voters from 2019 to the Conservative column? If you do it becomes quite clear.
    But there is no same basis for doing such a thing. There just isn't.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    French vaccine anecdote. 86yo friend of the family, English, but married a Frenchman and lived there for 50+ years. Was booked to have jab at pharmacy in Paris yesterday. Appointment cancelled as they didn't have any vaccines. Suspicion is it was cancelled due to AZ ban.

    Her son and daughter in law in their 50s had jabs weeks ago. France has vaccinated the wrong people first. The family friend because of her age is at high risk particularly with cases surging in Paris. The French state have put her and many others at great risk unnecessarily.

    I suggested she should get to the UK and she would probably be jabbed within 24 hours.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,388
    Today's reported death tolls in Italy (502) and France (408) are indeed utterly depressing, as I'm sure we all agree.

    But people do seem to forget that here in the UK our death toll averaged over 1,000 daily for three weeks in January (8-29), and was over 500 every day between December 17th and February 13th. We have short memories. I find it hard to be triumphalist. Despite our great vaccine success, it doesn't look like our final death toll or rate will be out of line with the rest of Europe; it may be a bit lower than some (Belgium, Italy) but higher than others (Germany, Scandinavia). But I may be wrong.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    dr_spyn said:

    David Davis has been busy tonight on Scottish matters.

    Oh bugger. And things had been going quite well...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,227

    Stocky said:

    Just back from vaccination centre in Ealing where I had to queue for around half an hour to get the AZN jab. Not feeling as though I’m about to succumb to a blood clot so far ...

    It sounds like turnout was brisk.
    Macron's stupidity didn't seem to do much damage to the reputation of AZ over here, fortunately. We can only hope that public confidence continues to hold.
    Maybe it's not done damage here because so many have had it with no ill effects and we have this experience. If we were starting out with it now - who knows?

    I'm a little concerned that if Europe goes down the vaccine passport route that some countries may not recognise a UK citizen's vaccination status if it specifies the Oxford/AZ vaccine.
    Well, as I related in a previous thread, the Turkish tourism minister was on the breakfast news the other morning beckoning UK custom with an open door policy. They've seen the direction the vaccination program is going in and they want a bigger share of our market.

    If the EU slams the door shut then your typical hotelier on the Turkish Aegean will have more customers than he knows what to do with come about July time. Any Sun seekers who can't get in there will have to go to Cornwall, or perhaps ship out to Florida, and Spain, Portugal, Greece, Croatia and Cyprus will all have to fight over the limited supply of available Germans. If they're not still under restrictions at that point, that is.

    As I also said previously one would expect common sense to reassert itself before things get that silly, but many European countries are not presently behaving as rational actors, so who knows?
    The EU stance so far has been "recognised if vaccine approved by EMA", which AZ is.

    Your bigger issue is if they allow you a passport, or recognise UK ones.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MattW said:

    Stocky said:

    Just back from vaccination centre in Ealing where I had to queue for around half an hour to get the AZN jab. Not feeling as though I’m about to succumb to a blood clot so far ...

    It sounds like turnout was brisk.
    Macron's stupidity didn't seem to do much damage to the reputation of AZ over here, fortunately. We can only hope that public confidence continues to hold.
    Maybe it's not done damage here because so many have had it with no ill effects and we have this experience. If we were starting out with it now - who knows?

    I'm a little concerned that if Europe goes down the vaccine passport route that some countries may not recognise a UK citizen's vaccination status if it specifies the Oxford/AZ vaccine.
    Well, as I related in a previous thread, the Turkish tourism minister was on the breakfast news the other morning beckoning UK custom with an open door policy. They've seen the direction the vaccination program is going in and they want a bigger share of our market.

    If the EU slams the door shut then your typical hotelier on the Turkish Aegean will have more customers than he knows what to do with come about July time. Any Sun seekers who can't get in there will have to go to Cornwall, or perhaps ship out to Florida, and Spain, Portugal, Greece, Croatia and Cyprus will all have to fight over the limited supply of available Germans. If they're not still under restrictions at that point, that is.

    As I also said previously one would expect common sense to reassert itself before things get that silly, but many European countries are not presently behaving as rational actors, so who knows?
    The EU stance so far has been "recognised if vaccine approved by EMA", which AZ is.

    Your bigger issue is if they allow you a passport, or recognise UK ones.
    Is it approved via an emergency use authorisation like in the UK?

    Or is it fully 100% authorised?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    AlistairM said:

    French vaccine anecdote. 86yo friend of the family, English, but married a Frenchman and lived there for 50+ years. Was booked to have jab at pharmacy in Paris yesterday. Appointment cancelled as they didn't have any vaccines. Suspicion is it was cancelled due to AZ ban.

    Her son and daughter in law in their 50s had jabs weeks ago. France has vaccinated the wrong people first. The family friend because of her age is at high risk particularly with cases surging in Paris. The French state have put her and many others at great risk unnecessarily.

    I suggested she should get to the UK and she would probably be jabbed within 24 hours.

    Surely she would have to quarantine for a fortnight first?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291

    GIN1138 said:

    I can't see the Tories taking this seat.

    Have you added in all the UKIPER/BREXITY Party voters from 2019 to the Conservative column? If you do it becomes quite clear.
    A lot of them won't go Conservative though. This is what Farage knew. A lot of old Labour just can't bring themselves to vote Tory... Without BXP most of their voters will stay at home.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,080

    What the hell has happened to the EU

    ..or were we having some weird kind of moderating effect on it as a member? Either way, they are looking increasingly alien

    Reading the UK press today I was thinking the same thing... in reverse. An astonishing load of propaganda and almost all of it is dishonest and often a lie direct. Overwhelmingly the British Press simply serves up a nakedly anti EU agenda regardless of the truth.

    I wont defend the mistakes that were made, but the hysterical tone of the UK media is incredibly dangerous. The EU noted that there might be a problem with blood clots with the AZ vaccine and investigated. Should they have done nothing? They found no problem and are resuming using the AZ vaccine. This is reported as the EU "folding". It´s total horse shit, but the UK feral press reports things in emotive and misleading ways. This is to the point where I reiterate: The UK now functions in a separate information space, where objectivity has been trashed in favour of propaganda and lies.

    It is not reported in the UK that there is a view that the UK is being pretty reckless about the second jab. Here in Tallinn we are 15% vaccinated and accelerating BUT 40% of those are getting their second jab within the manufacturers recommended time. In the UK the percentage with a second jab is still only about 6%.

    Here, we should have completed the programme by the end of May, and plenty of EU members are not far behind. This is not chaos, it is cautious and sensible, but the Far Right in the UK seem determined to launch propaganda attacks regardless.

    From where I stand the UK, with the highest death rate and with massive and growing economic problems should be thinking hard and very soberly about what went wrong, but all we are seeing is this hysterical drivel. It does, admittedly, distract attention from the collapse of EU-UK trade, and I suppose that is kind of the point.

    Pretty sinister if you ask me. Quo Vadis, Britannia?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I can't see the Tories taking this seat.

    Have you added in all the UKIPER/BREXITY Party voters from 2019 to the Conservative column? If you do it becomes quite clear.
    A lot of them won't go Conservative though. This is what Farage knew. A lot of old Labour just can't bring themselves to vote Tory... Without BXP most of their voters will stay at home.
    Or vote Labour.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    Today's reported death tolls in Italy (502) and France (408) are indeed utterly depressing, as I'm sure we all agree.

    But people do seem to forget that here in the UK our death toll averaged over 1,000 daily for three weeks in January (8-29), and was over 500 every day between December 17th and February 13th. We have short memories. I find it hard to be triumphalist. Despite our great vaccine success, it doesn't look like our final death toll or rate will be out of line with the rest of Europe; it may be a bit lower than some (Belgium, Italy) but higher than others (Germany, Scandinavia). But I may be wrong.

    No I think you have it pretty much spot on. The difference, however, is that our excess deaths were caused by the Kent variant over the period you identify. The European excess deaths in April, May, June, July are going to be caused by quite unbelievable stupidity. It really didn't have to be that way.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Cicero said:

    What the hell has happened to the EU

    ..or were we having some weird kind of moderating effect on it as a member? Either way, they are looking increasingly alien

    Reading the UK press today I was thinking the same thing... in reverse. An astonishing load of propaganda and almost all of it is dishonest and often a lie direct. Overwhelmingly the British Press simply serves up a nakedly anti EU agenda regardless of the truth.

    I wont defend the mistakes that were made, but the hysterical tone of the UK media is incredibly dangerous. The EU noted that there might be a problem with blood clots with the AZ vaccine and investigated. Should they have done nothing? They found no problem and are resuming using the AZ vaccine. This is reported as the EU "folding". It´s total horse shit, but the UK feral press reports things in emotive and misleading ways. This is to the point where I reiterate: The UK now functions in a separate information space, where objectivity has been trashed in favour of propaganda and lies.

    It is not reported in the UK that there is a view that the UK is being pretty reckless about the second jab. Here in Tallinn we are 15% vaccinated and accelerating BUT 40% of those are getting their second jab within the manufacturers recommended time. In the UK the percentage with a second jab is still only about 6%.

    Here, we should have completed the programme by the end of May, and plenty of EU members are not far behind. This is not chaos, it is cautious and sensible, but the Far Right in the UK seem determined to launch propaganda attacks regardless.

    From where I stand the UK, with the highest death rate and with massive and growing economic problems should be thinking hard and very soberly about what went wrong, but all we are seeing is this hysterical drivel. It does, admittedly, distract attention from the collapse of EU-UK trade, and I suppose that is kind of the point.

    Pretty sinister if you ask me. Quo Vadis, Britannia?
    There are many questions about this whole affair. Why no similar reaction over reactions to the other vaccines, and why after having waited so long for the EMA approval are they now just ignoring it.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:

    David Davis has been busy tonight on Scottish matters.

    Oh bugger. And things had been going quite well...
    Might be worth looking at BBC Parliament on Iplayer, it appears he has used Parliamentary Privilege to highlight shortcomings in Salmond inquiry. He appears to have caused a stir.
  • Labour could hold the seat - course they could. But remember that it's super Thursday in Hartlepool. Voting for councillors, their PCC, the metro Mayor and now their MP.

    The trend has clearly been away from Labour at council level both in Pools and across Teesside. The Tories will walk the Mayoral. The PCC was a bit of a toss-up but the seeming detection of Labour's candidate makes it trend Tory.

    So before people get to the MP choice they could already have voted against Labour 3 times. And many will vote Tory at least for the Mayor. Once you're doing that once it's easier to keep doing that...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,995
    Feel a lot better about nukes now I know they only target military targets.

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/1371893235572998145?s=20


  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770
    dr_spyn said:
    Episode 2 will no doubt have you equally on the edge of your seat. As it's a David Davis production you can expect it in about 10 years.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Cicero said:

    What the hell has happened to the EU

    ..or were we having some weird kind of moderating effect on it as a member? Either way, they are looking increasingly alien

    Reading the UK press today I was thinking the same thing... in reverse. An astonishing load of propaganda and almost all of it is dishonest and often a lie direct. Overwhelmingly the British Press simply serves up a nakedly anti EU agenda regardless of the truth.

    I wont defend the mistakes that were made, but the hysterical tone of the UK media is incredibly dangerous. The EU noted that there might be a problem with blood clots with the AZ vaccine and investigated. Should they have done nothing? They found no problem and are resuming using the AZ vaccine. This is reported as the EU "folding". It´s total horse shit, but the UK feral press reports things in emotive and misleading ways. This is to the point where I reiterate: The UK now functions in a separate information space, where objectivity has been trashed in favour of propaganda and lies.

    It is not reported in the UK that there is a view that the UK is being pretty reckless about the second jab. Here in Tallinn we are 15% vaccinated and accelerating BUT 40% of those are getting their second jab within the manufacturers recommended time. In the UK the percentage with a second jab is still only about 6%.

    Here, we should have completed the programme by the end of May, and plenty of EU members are not far behind. This is not chaos, it is cautious and sensible, but the Far Right in the UK seem determined to launch propaganda attacks regardless.

    From where I stand the UK, with the highest death rate and with massive and growing economic problems should be thinking hard and very soberly about what went wrong, but all we are seeing is this hysterical drivel. It does, admittedly, distract attention from the collapse of EU-UK trade, and I suppose that is kind of the point.

    Pretty sinister if you ask me. Quo Vadis, Britannia?
    Changing the subject completely, have you ever been seen in the same room as Dave Keating?
  • Labour could hold the seat - course they could. But remember that it's super Thursday in Hartlepool. Voting for councillors, their PCC, the metro Mayor and now their MP.

    The trend has clearly been away from Labour at council level both in Pools and across Teesside. The Tories will walk the Mayoral. The PCC was a bit of a toss-up but the seeming detection of Labour's candidate makes it trend Tory.

    So before people get to the MP choice they could already have voted against Labour 3 times. And many will vote Tory at least for the Mayor. Once you're doing that once it's easier to keep doing that...

    I expect there will be Hartlepool specific polling soon
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Today's reported death tolls in Italy (502) and France (408) are indeed utterly depressing, as I'm sure we all agree.

    But people do seem to forget that here in the UK our death toll averaged over 1,000 daily for three weeks in January (8-29), and was over 500 every day between December 17th and February 13th. We have short memories. I find it hard to be triumphalist. Despite our great vaccine success, it doesn't look like our final death toll or rate will be out of line with the rest of Europe; it may be a bit lower than some (Belgium, Italy) but higher than others (Germany, Scandinavia). But I may be wrong.

    No it won't be out of line with the rest, in fact it may well be higher (there's also arguments about noting it via excess deaths instead) than most.

    But it's possible to see that we are a truly terrible January but are at least vaccinating as well as can be, and that several EU nations are, through needless decisions, exacerbating their vaccination problem and so extending the pain they will have and increasing the number of deaths that will occur.

    It's not triumphalist to be looking at the present situation in the present moment. None of the big European nations are going to have a 'great' tally, at the end of all this, not even Germany, on a global scale.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I can't see the Tories taking this seat.

    Have you added in all the UKIPER/BREXITY Party voters from 2019 to the Conservative column? If you do it becomes quite clear.
    A lot of them won't go Conservative though. This is what Farage knew. A lot of old Labour just can't bring themselves to vote Tory... Without BXP most of their voters will stay at home.
    That can't be true though, can it? When you look at the swings in the red wall seats for 2019, old labour voters must be going for the tories, musn't they? and plenty of them.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    So Canada, like Thailand, thought “we’d better have a look into this, the Europeans aren’t thick”; and then (also like Thailand) rapidly concluded they actually are thick.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    justin124 said:

    Hartlepool did elect a Tory MP in Macmillan's 1959 landslide , but I expect Labour to hold the seat now - probably with a swing in its favour.It is not just a matter of Brexit having lost its salience - the Corbyn factor has disappeared. Had Tice not stood in 2019, I suspect Labour would have had a more comfortable win. The Tories require a 4.4% swing to take the seat - equivalent to a national poll lead of nearly 21%. We are not seeing much sign of that at present.

    From memory, admittedly, but my impression that there was a raft of seats across the North East where Brexit Party polled very strongly in the election, and there were clearly lower swings to the Tories as a result. The circumstantial evidence was that they took votes that would have otherwise been Tory gains.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,487
    justin124 said:

    Hartlepool did elect a Tory MP in Macmillan's 1959 landslide , but I expect Labour to hold the seat now - probably with a swing in its favour.It is not just a matter of Brexit having lost its salience - the Corbyn factor has disappeared. Had Tice not stood in 2019, I suspect Labour would have had a more comfortable win. The Tories require a 4.4% swing to take the seat - equivalent to a national poll lead of nearly 21%. We are not seeing much sign of that at present.

    Labour's problems are far deeper than Corbyn, who was actually a turbocharged symptom - not a cause.

    I think people are fundamentally misreading this.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    dr_spyn said:
    Leslie Evans will be burnt as a sacrificial offering for the greater good, only consoled by an absurd payoff to keep her mouth shut. Sturgeon's husband may well be burned in the same conflagration. But Nicola will walk through the flames like Daenerys Targaryen Khaleesi. It is foretold.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Pidcock is liked by the Labour left for a simple reason: her worldview reflects their worldview. It’s like asking why do Essex Tories like Priti Patel (apparently she’s quite popular there).

    I must be the only person on here who doesn’t really rate Ed Balls. I’ve never really been his biggest fan, tbf. David Miliband wouldn’t be an improvement for Labour either: Labour would have the same issues they do with Starmer at the moment, plus with Miliband’s baggage as having been in the last Labour government.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    AlistairM said:

    French vaccine anecdote. 86yo friend of the family, English, but married a Frenchman and lived there for 50+ years. Was booked to have jab at pharmacy in Paris yesterday. Appointment cancelled as they didn't have any vaccines. Suspicion is it was cancelled due to AZ ban.

    Her son and daughter in law in their 50s had jabs weeks ago. France has vaccinated the wrong people first. The family friend because of her age is at high risk particularly with cases surging in Paris. The French state have put her and many others at great risk unnecessarily.

    I suggested she should get to the UK and she would probably be jabbed within 24 hours.

    Doctor mum says that anecdotal evidence of significant temporary registrations from people bringing in relatives from abroad to get UK vaccines. Even from places like China!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Leslie Evans will be burnt as a sacrificial offering for the greater good, only consoled by an absurd payoff to keep her mouth shut. Sturgeon's husband may well be burned in the same conflagration. But Nicola will walk through the flames like Daenerys Targaryen Khaleesi. It is foretold.
    Did you have to give us the image of Nicola Sturgeon stark naked and covered in soot and dragons?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Pidcock is liked by the Labour left for a simple reason: her worldview reflects their worldview. It’s like asking why do Essex Tories like Priti Patel (apparently she’s quite popular there).

    I must be the only person on here who doesn’t really rate Ed Balls. I’ve never really been his biggest fan, tbf. David Miliband wouldn’t be an improvement for Labour either: Labour would have the same issues they do with Starmer at the moment, plus with Miliband’s baggage as having been in the last Labour government.

    He’s grown on me since leaving government. But I still don’t rate him. It’s just I now think he isn’t a brilliant politician instead of thinking he’s a nasty piece of work as well as not a brilliant politician.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I can't see the Tories taking this seat.

    Have you added in all the UKIPER/BREXITY Party voters from 2019 to the Conservative column? If you do it becomes quite clear.
    A lot of them won't go Conservative though. This is what Farage knew. A lot of old Labour just can't bring themselves to vote Tory... Without BXP most of their voters will stay at home.
    That can't be true though, can it? When you look at the swings in the red wall seats for 2019, old labour voters must be going for the tories, musn't they? and plenty of them.
    Perhaps in some seats. But I just can't see Hartlepool ever voting in a Conservative MP.

    But we'll see I guess.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited March 2021
    Cicero said:

    What the hell has happened to the EU

    ..or were we having some weird kind of moderating effect on it as a member? Either way, they are looking increasingly alien

    Reading the UK press today I was thinking the same thing... in reverse. An astonishing load of propaganda and almost all of it is dishonest and often a lie direct. Overwhelmingly the British Press simply serves up a nakedly anti EU agenda regardless of the truth.

    I wont defend the mistakes that were made, but the hysterical tone of the UK media is incredibly dangerous. The EU noted that there might be a problem with blood clots with the AZ vaccine and investigated. Should they have done nothing? They found no problem and are resuming using the AZ vaccine. This is reported as the EU "folding". It´s total horse shit, but the UK feral press reports things in emotive and misleading ways. This is to the point where I reiterate: The UK now functions in a separate information space, where objectivity has been trashed in favour of propaganda and lies.

    It is not reported in the UK that there is a view that the UK is being pretty reckless about the second jab. Here in Tallinn we are 15% vaccinated and accelerating BUT 40% of those are getting their second jab within the manufacturers recommended time. In the UK the percentage with a second jab is still only about 6%.

    Here, we should have completed the programme by the end of May, and plenty of EU members are not far behind. This is not chaos, it is cautious and sensible, but the Far Right in the UK seem determined to launch propaganda attacks regardless.

    From where I stand the UK, with the highest death rate and with massive and growing economic problems should be thinking hard and very soberly about what went wrong, but all we are seeing is this hysterical drivel. It does, admittedly, distract attention from the collapse of EU-UK trade, and I suppose that is kind of the point.

    Pretty sinister if you ask me. Quo Vadis, Britannia?
    Yes they could have done nothing - it has been explained multiple times that halting vaccinations because of reports of a tiny number of blood clots out of 17m doses was not displaying an abundance of caution, it was the reverse.

    Yes the EU will not be that far behind in vaccination, and have picked up speed, but your post is incrediby hyperbolic and includes dishonesty - for instance many reported on the delays to the Pfizer jab and the potential risk.

    It is perfectly possible to see that the UK made many mistakes, and many people on here including Leavers said so - for instance on locking down too late, or not closing the borders, or the Christmas break - and that several EU nations have made avoidable mistakes in the vaccination phase.

    Your talk of the UK media's tone being dangerous also seems remarkable given you 'wont defend the mistakes that were made' but are objecting to people raising those mistakes, such as the war of words with AZ.

    That you appear to see it as a zero sum gain says more about your priorities. Seriously, I don't know how, if you think the problem is propaganda and dishonesty, that responding in kind is the solution.

    Edit: This is like when people say you cannot criticise Israel without being called antisemitic - you can, and it is pretty easy. Similiarly, it's pretty easy to praise the UK vaccination rollout and criticise the EU's latest moves, without ignoring the UK's overall situation. And many do.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,355
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Leslie Evans will be burnt as a sacrificial offering for the greater good, only consoled by an absurd payoff to keep her mouth shut. Sturgeon's husband may well be burned in the same conflagration. But Nicola will walk through the flames like Daenerys Targaryen Khaleesi. It is foretold.
    Did you have to give us the image of Nicola Sturgeon stark naked and covered in soot and dragons?
    I believe it is traditional to offer the following picture, in the absence of the one you seek.

    image
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,388
    edited March 2021
    DavidL said:

    Today's reported death tolls in Italy (502) and France (408) are indeed utterly depressing, as I'm sure we all agree.

    But people do seem to forget that here in the UK our death toll averaged over 1,000 daily for three weeks in January (8-29), and was over 500 every day between December 17th and February 13th. We have short memories. I find it hard to be triumphalist. Despite our great vaccine success, it doesn't look like our final death toll or rate will be out of line with the rest of Europe; it may be a bit lower than some (Belgium, Italy) but higher than others (Germany, Scandinavia). But I may be wrong.

    No I think you have it pretty much spot on. The difference, however, is that our excess deaths were caused by the Kent variant over the period you identify. The European excess deaths in April, May, June, July are going to be caused by quite unbelievable stupidity. It really didn't have to be that way.
    I don't disagree. But we have had our own moments of stupidity: not taking decisive action when cases rose rapidly in autumn; not shutting everything down as soon as the greater infectivity of the Kent variant became apparent; mixed messages at Xmas; reckless with regard to international travel.

    I'm just finding the gung ho tone of recent threads depressing and one-sided (as well as repetitive: how often do some posters have to repeat that Europe is terrible?). It's as if the UK has handled Covid brilliantly, and the evil Europeans have been terrible. The data doesn't show that. Our Europe-beating performance only applies to the vaccines. We've made as many errors as other countries around the world in other respects.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    edited March 2021
    GRU must be looking on watching the EU states reactions to AZN and say its ok lads we can have a few weeks off spreading misinformation, they are doing an even better job than us.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Today's reported death tolls in Italy (502) and France (408) are indeed utterly depressing, as I'm sure we all agree.

    But people do seem to forget that here in the UK our death toll averaged over 1,000 daily for three weeks in January (8-29), and was over 500 every day between December 17th and February 13th. We have short memories. I find it hard to be triumphalist. Despite our great vaccine success, it doesn't look like our final death toll or rate will be out of line with the rest of Europe; it may be a bit lower than some (Belgium, Italy) but higher than others (Germany, Scandinavia). But I may be wrong.

    To be honest i don't think there's much triumphalism. Actually it's depression because we think that the large countries could be on the cusp of running up our sort of numbers. They simply haven't registered what happened here a couple of months ago.

    And from a selfish perspective, not great confidence in the prospect of a European summer holiday.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Leslie Evans will be burnt as a sacrificial offering for the greater good, only consoled by an absurd payoff to keep her mouth shut. Sturgeon's husband may well be burned in the same conflagration. But Nicola will walk through the flames like Daenerys Targaryen Khaleesi. It is foretold.
    Did you have to give us the image of Nicola Sturgeon stark naked and covered in soot and dragons?
    I was looking forward to my dinner as well
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    dr_spyn said:
    Paging Malc! :D
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited March 2021
    ydoethur said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    It's a shame that the first by-election for ages has to happen in a safe Tory seat like Hartlepool...

    ☺ - Yep. But if Labour can somehow win this one the whole movement will be galvanized. It will be like when Ian Poulter sank that putt on the Saturday at the 2012 RC to set up the following day's Miracle at Medinah.
    Gosh labour actually managing to hold a seat will galvanise them....that really is the height of ambition....we will manage to hold seats we already have?
    For Labour, given where they have gone to, that is a result.

    That was also the issue facing Hague’s Tories. Remember how pleased they were to hold Uxbridge, which at one time was thought to be a possible by-election gain for Labour. Or to get a small uplift in the vote at Eddisbury.

    I agree it *shouldn’t* be an issue after 11 years in opposition. But they are where they are.
    ydoethur said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    It's a shame that the first by-election for ages has to happen in a safe Tory seat like Hartlepool...

    ☺ - Yep. But if Labour can somehow win this one the whole movement will be galvanized. It will be like when Ian Poulter sank that putt on the Saturday at the 2012 RC to set up the following day's Miracle at Medinah.
    Gosh labour actually managing to hold a seat will galvanise them....that really is the height of ambition....we will manage to hold seats we already have?
    For Labour, given where they have gone to, that is a result.

    That was also the issue facing Hague’s Tories. Remember how pleased they were to hold Uxbridge, which at one time was thought to be a possible by-election gain for Labour. Or to get a small uplift in the vote at Eddisbury.

    I agree it *shouldn’t* be an issue after 11 years in opposition. But they are where they are.
    Except that - unlike at the time of the Uxbridge by election in July 1997 - the national polls are not currently indicating a pro-Tory swing relative to 2019 despite the vaccine bounce.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I can't see the Tories taking this seat.

    Have you added in all the UKIPER/BREXITY Party voters from 2019 to the Conservative column? If you do it becomes quite clear.
    A lot of them won't go Conservative though. This is what Farage knew. A lot of old Labour just can't bring themselves to vote Tory... Without BXP most of their voters will stay at home.
    That can't be true though, can it? When you look at the swings in the red wall seats for 2019, old labour voters must be going for the tories, musn't they? and plenty of them.
    Perhaps in some seats. But I just can't see Hartlepool ever voting in a Conservative MP.

    But we'll see I guess.
    I know what you mean. I still can't believe some of the seats that did go, went, though. Bolsover!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,206
    RobD said:

    Cicero said:

    What the hell has happened to the EU

    ..or were we having some weird kind of moderating effect on it as a member? Either way, they are looking increasingly alien

    Reading the UK press today I was thinking the same thing... in reverse. An astonishing load of propaganda and almost all of it is dishonest and often a lie direct. Overwhelmingly the British Press simply serves up a nakedly anti EU agenda regardless of the truth.

    I wont defend the mistakes that were made, but the hysterical tone of the UK media is incredibly dangerous. The EU noted that there might be a problem with blood clots with the AZ vaccine and investigated. Should they have done nothing? They found no problem and are resuming using the AZ vaccine. This is reported as the EU "folding". It´s total horse shit, but the UK feral press reports things in emotive and misleading ways. This is to the point where I reiterate: The UK now functions in a separate information space, where objectivity has been trashed in favour of propaganda and lies.

    It is not reported in the UK that there is a view that the UK is being pretty reckless about the second jab. Here in Tallinn we are 15% vaccinated and accelerating BUT 40% of those are getting their second jab within the manufacturers recommended time. In the UK the percentage with a second jab is still only about 6%.

    Here, we should have completed the programme by the end of May, and plenty of EU members are not far behind. This is not chaos, it is cautious and sensible, but the Far Right in the UK seem determined to launch propaganda attacks regardless.

    From where I stand the UK, with the highest death rate and with massive and growing economic problems should be thinking hard and very soberly about what went wrong, but all we are seeing is this hysterical drivel. It does, admittedly, distract attention from the collapse of EU-UK trade, and I suppose that is kind of the point.

    Pretty sinister if you ask me. Quo Vadis, Britannia?
    There are many questions about this whole affair. Why no similar reaction over reactions to the other vaccines, and why after having waited so long for the EMA approval are they now just ignoring it.
    You might also ask why AZ faced a barrage of negative publicity from long-before it was approved anywhere.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Leslie Evans will be burnt as a sacrificial offering for the greater good, only consoled by an absurd payoff to keep her mouth shut. Sturgeon's husband may well be burned in the same conflagration. But Nicola will walk through the flames like Daenerys Targaryen Khaleesi. It is foretold.
    Did you have to give us the image of Nicola Sturgeon stark naked and covered in soot and dragons?
    I was looking forward to my dinner as well
    No need to be crankie

    Is that my coat?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350
    edited March 2021
    GIN1138 said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Paging Malc! :D
    Rank Bad Un for sure, hopefully she does not get away with it.
    PS: Salmond offered them up weeks ago but Sturgeon had her pet Lord Advocate tell the inquiry they should not ask for them as they were secret.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    California Recall Special Election 2021

    > in order to trigger recall election, petition sponsors need # of valid voter signatures = 12% of # ballots cast in November 2020 general election. Note that last year's high turnout raised the bar.

    > if 2021 gubernatorial recall qualifies (which given Gov's statement looks pretty sure thing) then Lieutenant Gov Eleni Kounalakis, a Democrat (naturally) must call special election within a few months.

    > at that election, CA voters will be asked to vote on two separate things:
    a) should Gavin Newsome be removed as Governor, yes or no? - decided by majority of those voting
    b) who should replace him? - decided by plurality of those voting, with top vote-getter elected.

    > in 2003 recall, vote to remove incumbent Gov. Gray Davis, a Democrat, was 55.4% yes.

    > For his replacement, there were 135 candidates plus write-ins, winner (with 48.6%) was Arnold Schwarzenegger.

    > Note that US Rep. Darrell Issa put $2 million of his own money into the 2003 sig drive against Davis, in fond hopes of replacing him, only to find his dream hijacked by the Governator.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Leslie Evans will be burnt as a sacrificial offering for the greater good, only consoled by an absurd payoff to keep her mouth shut. Sturgeon's husband may well be burned in the same conflagration. But Nicola will walk through the flames like Daenerys Targaryen Khaleesi. It is foretold.
    Did you have to give us the image of Nicola Sturgeon stark naked and covered in soot and dragons?
    I believe it is traditional to offer the following picture, in the absence of the one you seek.

    image
    Don’t see any dragons there.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    GIN1138 said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Paging Malc! :D
    All this popcorn is ruining my diet
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,350
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Leslie Evans will be burnt as a sacrificial offering for the greater good, only consoled by an absurd payoff to keep her mouth shut. Sturgeon's husband may well be burned in the same conflagration. But Nicola will walk through the flames like Daenerys Targaryen Khaleesi. It is foretold.
    Did you have to give us the image of Nicola Sturgeon stark naked and covered in soot and dragons?
    I believe it is traditional to offer the following picture, in the absence of the one you seek.

    image
    Don’t see any dragons there.
    That is dinner well and truly ruined
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Pidcock is liked by the Labour left for a simple reason: her worldview reflects their worldview. It’s like asking why do Essex Tories like Priti Patel (apparently she’s quite popular there).

    I must be the only person on here who doesn’t really rate Ed Balls. I’ve never really been his biggest fan, tbf. David Miliband wouldn’t be an improvement for Labour either: Labour would have the same issues they do with Starmer at the moment, plus with Miliband’s baggage as having been in the last Labour government.

    I don't rate Ed Balls. I didn't like him one bit when he was an MP (while I thought Ed M was fine), and sure like many politician's he's more likable out of office, I don't see what he did that showed his quality compared to others.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    DavidL said:

    Today's reported death tolls in Italy (502) and France (408) are indeed utterly depressing, as I'm sure we all agree.

    But people do seem to forget that here in the UK our death toll averaged over 1,000 daily for three weeks in January (8-29), and was over 500 every day between December 17th and February 13th. We have short memories. I find it hard to be triumphalist. Despite our great vaccine success, it doesn't look like our final death toll or rate will be out of line with the rest of Europe; it may be a bit lower than some (Belgium, Italy) but higher than others (Germany, Scandinavia). But I may be wrong.

    No I think you have it pretty much spot on. The difference, however, is that our excess deaths were caused by the Kent variant over the period you identify. The European excess deaths in April, May, June, July are going to be caused by quite unbelievable stupidity. It really didn't have to be that way.
    I don't disagree. But we have had our own moments of stupidity: not taking decisive action when cases rose rapidly in autumn; not shutting everything down as soon as the greater infectivity of the Kent variant became apparent; mixed messages at Xmas; reckless with regard to international travel.

    I'm just finding the gung ho tone of recent threads depressing and one-sided: it's as if the UK has handled Covid brilliantly, and the evil Europeans have been terrible. The data doesn't show that. Our Europe-beating performance only applies to the vaccines. We've made as many errors as other countries around the world in other respects.
    I agree with that too. If we had just stopped muppets travelling to and from this country without quarantine in the summer and autumn we would have suffered tens of thousands fewer deaths. If we had taken quarantine more seriously for those tracked and traced at almost unimaginable cost we would be in a better place too. If we hadn't cleared out our hospital wards of senile infected patients into homes who had neither the skills nor the kit to cope with them many fewer would have died. We have all made mistakes and the UK has made at least its fair share. But this is just crazy, absolutely crazy.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,770
    ydoethur said:

    Pidcock is liked by the Labour left for a simple reason: her worldview reflects their worldview. It’s like asking why do Essex Tories like Priti Patel (apparently she’s quite popular there).

    I must be the only person on here who doesn’t really rate Ed Balls. I’ve never really been his biggest fan, tbf. David Miliband wouldn’t be an improvement for Labour either: Labour would have the same issues they do with Starmer at the moment, plus with Miliband’s baggage as having been in the last Labour government.

    He’s grown on me since leaving government. But I still don’t rate him. It’s just I now think he isn’t a brilliant politician instead of thinking he’s a nasty piece of work as well as not a brilliant politician.
    I'd happily have seen Balls strung up when he was in government. I think its clear that Brown had him defending a view he didn't believe in. That's a major problem for him if he ever returns.

    As I said below I think he's more a LD now anyway. He, Mrs Balls, and much of the more reasonable elements in Labour have changed their views post Corbyn.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Cicero said:

    What the hell has happened to the EU

    ..or were we having some weird kind of moderating effect on it as a member? Either way, they are looking increasingly alien

    Reading the UK press today I was thinking the same thing... in reverse. An astonishing load of propaganda and almost all of it is dishonest and often a lie direct. Overwhelmingly the British Press simply serves up a nakedly anti EU agenda regardless of the truth.

    I wont defend the mistakes that were made, but the hysterical tone of the UK media is incredibly dangerous. The EU noted that there might be a problem with blood clots with the AZ vaccine and investigated. Should they have done nothing? They found no problem and are resuming using the AZ vaccine. This is reported as the EU "folding". It´s total horse shit, but the UK feral press reports things in emotive and misleading ways. This is to the point where I reiterate: The UK now functions in a separate information space, where objectivity has been trashed in favour of propaganda and lies.

    It is not reported in the UK that there is a view that the UK is being pretty reckless about the second jab. Here in Tallinn we are 15% vaccinated and accelerating BUT 40% of those are getting their second jab within the manufacturers recommended time. In the UK the percentage with a second jab is still only about 6%.

    Here, we should have completed the programme by the end of May, and plenty of EU members are not far behind. This is not chaos, it is cautious and sensible, but the Far Right in the UK seem determined to launch propaganda attacks regardless.

    From where I stand the UK, with the highest death rate and with massive and growing economic problems should be thinking hard and very soberly about what went wrong, but all we are seeing is this hysterical drivel. It does, admittedly, distract attention from the collapse of EU-UK trade, and I suppose that is kind of the point.

    Pretty sinister if you ask me. Quo Vadis, Britannia?
    Lol. It's the way you tell it, Cicero. Sometimes I do wonder whether you're an elaborate troll.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    It's a shame that the first by-election for ages has to happen in a safe Tory seat like Hartlepool...

    ☺ - Yep. But if Labour can somehow win this one the whole movement will be galvanized. It will be like when Ian Poulter sank that putt on the Saturday at the 2012 RC to set up the following day's Miracle at Medinah.
    Gosh labour actually managing to hold a seat will galvanise them....that really is the height of ambition....we will manage to hold seats we already have?
    For Labour, given where they have gone to, that is a result.

    That was also the issue facing Hague’s Tories. Remember how pleased they were to hold Uxbridge, which at one time was thought to be a possible by-election gain for Labour. Or to get a small uplift in the vote at Eddisbury.

    I agree it *shouldn’t* be an issue after 11 years in opposition. But they are where they are.
    ydoethur said:

    Pagan2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    It's a shame that the first by-election for ages has to happen in a safe Tory seat like Hartlepool...

    ☺ - Yep. But if Labour can somehow win this one the whole movement will be galvanized. It will be like when Ian Poulter sank that putt on the Saturday at the 2012 RC to set up the following day's Miracle at Medinah.
    Gosh labour actually managing to hold a seat will galvanise them....that really is the height of ambition....we will manage to hold seats we already have?
    For Labour, given where they have gone to, that is a result.

    That was also the issue facing Hague’s Tories. Remember how pleased they were to hold Uxbridge, which at one time was thought to be a possible by-election gain for Labour. Or to get a small uplift in the vote at Eddisbury.

    I agree it *shouldn’t* be an issue after 11 years in opposition. But they are where they are.
    Except that - unlike at the time of the Uxbridge by election in July 1997 - the national polls are not currently indicating a pro-Tory swing relative to 2019 despite the vaccine bounce.
    Huh? In July 1997 the opinion polls showed Labour 57 Tory 23 Lib Dem 15.

    That compares to the election result of lab 43 Con 30.

    That does not look like a pro-Tory swing to me... unless we’re back to ‘Blair’s a Tory.’
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    Cicero said:

    What the hell has happened to the EU

    ..or were we having some weird kind of moderating effect on it as a member? Either way, they are looking increasingly alien

    Reading the UK press today I was thinking the same thing... in reverse. An astonishing load of propaganda and almost all of it is dishonest and often a lie direct. Overwhelmingly the British Press simply serves up a nakedly anti EU agenda regardless of the truth.

    I wont defend the mistakes that were made, but the hysterical tone of the UK media is incredibly dangerous. The EU noted that there might be a problem with blood clots with the AZ vaccine and investigated. Should they have done nothing? They found no problem and are resuming using the AZ vaccine. This is reported as the EU "folding". It´s total horse shit, but the UK feral press reports things in emotive and misleading ways. This is to the point where I reiterate: The UK now functions in a separate information space, where objectivity has been trashed in favour of propaganda and lies.

    It is not reported in the UK that there is a view that the UK is being pretty reckless about the second jab. Here in Tallinn we are 15% vaccinated and accelerating BUT 40% of those are getting their second jab within the manufacturers recommended time. In the UK the percentage with a second jab is still only about 6%.

    Here, we should have completed the programme by the end of May, and plenty of EU members are not far behind. This is not chaos, it is cautious and sensible, but the Far Right in the UK seem determined to launch propaganda attacks regardless.

    From where I stand the UK, with the highest death rate and with massive and growing economic problems should be thinking hard and very soberly about what went wrong, but all we are seeing is this hysterical drivel. It does, admittedly, distract attention from the collapse of EU-UK trade, and I suppose that is kind of the point.

    Pretty sinister if you ask me. Quo Vadis, Britannia?
    Total bollocks your governments are happy to kill you for political ends....not our fault. Your fault as you voted for them
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    AlistairM said:

    French vaccine anecdote. 86yo friend of the family, English, but married a Frenchman and lived there for 50+ years. Was booked to have jab at pharmacy in Paris yesterday. Appointment cancelled as they didn't have any vaccines. Suspicion is it was cancelled due to AZ ban.

    Her son and daughter in law in their 50s had jabs weeks ago. France has vaccinated the wrong people first. The family friend because of her age is at high risk particularly with cases surging in Paris. The French state have put her and many others at great risk unnecessarily.

    I suggested she should get to the UK and she would probably be jabbed within 24 hours.

    AlistairM said:

    French vaccine anecdote. 86yo friend of the family, English, but married a Frenchman and lived there for 50+ years. Was booked to have jab at pharmacy in Paris yesterday. Appointment cancelled as they didn't have any vaccines. Suspicion is it was cancelled due to AZ ban.

    Her son and daughter in law in their 50s had jabs weeks ago. France has vaccinated the wrong people first. The family friend because of her age is at high risk particularly with cases surging in Paris. The French state have put her and many others at great risk unnecessarily.

    I suggested she should get to the UK and she would probably be jabbed within 24 hours.

    Tough situation. The good news is that even in a third wave lots of people will have been vaccinated so hopefully less impact, but it's clearly a higher impact than it needed to be.
  • I guess a lot of PBers won't be buying phones from Utah.

    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1371916704645849089
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pidcock is liked by the Labour left for a simple reason: her worldview reflects their worldview. It’s like asking why do Essex Tories like Priti Patel (apparently she’s quite popular there).

    I must be the only person on here who doesn’t really rate Ed Balls. I’ve never really been his biggest fan, tbf. David Miliband wouldn’t be an improvement for Labour either: Labour would have the same issues they do with Starmer at the moment, plus with Miliband’s baggage as having been in the last Labour government.

    He’s grown on me since leaving government. But I still don’t rate him. It’s just I now think he isn’t a brilliant politician instead of thinking he’s a nasty piece of work as well as not a brilliant politician.
    I'd happily have seen Balls strung up when he was in government. I think its clear that Brown had him defending a view he didn't believe in. That's a major problem for him if he ever returns.

    As I said below I think he's more a LD now anyway. He, Mrs Balls, and much of the more reasonable elements in Labour have changed their views post Corbyn.
    So you’ve gone from having them strung up by Balls to Labour having Balls dropped?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,870
    Yes Minister on BBC4, followed by Reggie Perrin!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,586
    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    It's a shame that the first by-election for ages has to happen in a safe Tory seat like Hartlepool...

    ☺ - Yep. But if Labour can somehow win this one the whole movement will be galvanized. It will be like when Ian Poulter sank that putt on the Saturday at the 2012 RC to set up the following day's Miracle at Medinah.
    Great spin
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,995

    DavidL said:

    Today's reported death tolls in Italy (502) and France (408) are indeed utterly depressing, as I'm sure we all agree.

    But people do seem to forget that here in the UK our death toll averaged over 1,000 daily for three weeks in January (8-29), and was over 500 every day between December 17th and February 13th. We have short memories. I find it hard to be triumphalist. Despite our great vaccine success, it doesn't look like our final death toll or rate will be out of line with the rest of Europe; it may be a bit lower than some (Belgium, Italy) but higher than others (Germany, Scandinavia). But I may be wrong.

    No I think you have it pretty much spot on. The difference, however, is that our excess deaths were caused by the Kent variant over the period you identify. The European excess deaths in April, May, June, July are going to be caused by quite unbelievable stupidity. It really didn't have to be that way.
    I don't disagree. But we have had our own moments of stupidity: not taking decisive action when cases rose rapidly in autumn; not shutting everything down as soon as the greater infectivity of the Kent variant became apparent; mixed messages at Xmas; reckless with regard to international travel.

    I'm just finding the gung ho tone of recent threads depressing and one-sided (as well as repetitive: how often do some posters have to repeat that Europe is terrible?). It's as if the UK has handled Covid brilliantly, and the evil Europeans have been terrible. The data doesn't show that. Our Europe-beating performance only applies to the vaccines. We've made as many errors as other countries around the world in other respects.
    The flip-flop from 'we love Europe, it's the EU with which we have a problem' to 'fucking Europe' has been remarkable, and revealing.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,388
    alex_ said:

    Today's reported death tolls in Italy (502) and France (408) are indeed utterly depressing, as I'm sure we all agree.

    But people do seem to forget that here in the UK our death toll averaged over 1,000 daily for three weeks in January (8-29), and was over 500 every day between December 17th and February 13th. We have short memories. I find it hard to be triumphalist. Despite our great vaccine success, it doesn't look like our final death toll or rate will be out of line with the rest of Europe; it may be a bit lower than some (Belgium, Italy) but higher than others (Germany, Scandinavia). But I may be wrong.

    To be honest i don't think there's much triumphalism. Actually it's depression because we think that the large countries could be on the cusp of running up our sort of numbers. They simply haven't registered what happened here a couple of months ago.

    And from a selfish perspective, not great confidence in the prospect of a European summer holiday.
    No triumphalism from you, I agree. But I detect a lot of triumphalism from others: not so much about deaths, of course, but more the sheer glee at the hammering that the 'European project' has taken from the vaccine debacle, and that this has proved, of course, that Brexit was the right decision all along - told you so.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    edited March 2021
    PUBLIC Health England have launched a probe into a new Covid variant from the Philippines after two cases were discovered in the UK.

    The health authority said the variant contains a number of worrying mutations, including the E484K spike protein found in the Brazil strain.

    -----

    It is why the airbridge hotel quarantine scheme is so flawed. Its should be all or nothing. And when we inevitably agree for another european holiday season, we will import all the variants, like a kid being let loose with the pick n mix.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    WHAT are the odds, that Boris will swing the Harlepool by-election, by getting the Queen to pardon the monkey?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Today's reported death tolls in Italy (502) and France (408) are indeed utterly depressing, as I'm sure we all agree.

    But people do seem to forget that here in the UK our death toll averaged over 1,000 daily for three weeks in January (8-29), and was over 500 every day between December 17th and February 13th. We have short memories. I find it hard to be triumphalist. Despite our great vaccine success, it doesn't look like our final death toll or rate will be out of line with the rest of Europe; it may be a bit lower than some (Belgium, Italy) but higher than others (Germany, Scandinavia). But I may be wrong.

    Not triumphalist at all.

    We made mistakes and got hit hard by a variant - one that is now spreading in Europe.

    Gobsmacked at the collective stupidity being evidenced - it really didn't need to be like this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited March 2021

    DavidL said:

    Today's reported death tolls in Italy (502) and France (408) are indeed utterly depressing, as I'm sure we all agree.

    But people do seem to forget that here in the UK our death toll averaged over 1,000 daily for three weeks in January (8-29), and was over 500 every day between December 17th and February 13th. We have short memories. I find it hard to be triumphalist. Despite our great vaccine success, it doesn't look like our final death toll or rate will be out of line with the rest of Europe; it may be a bit lower than some (Belgium, Italy) but higher than others (Germany, Scandinavia). But I may be wrong.

    No I think you have it pretty much spot on. The difference, however, is that our excess deaths were caused by the Kent variant over the period you identify. The European excess deaths in April, May, June, July are going to be caused by quite unbelievable stupidity. It really didn't have to be that way.
    I don't disagree. But we have had our own moments of stupidity: not taking decisive action when cases rose rapidly in autumn; not shutting everything down as soon as the greater infectivity of the Kent variant became apparent; mixed messages at Xmas; reckless with regard to international travel.

    I'm just finding the gung ho tone of recent threads depressing and one-sided (as well as repetitive: how often do some posters have to repeat that Europe is terrible?). It's as if the UK has handled Covid brilliantly, and the evil Europeans have been terrible. The data doesn't show that. Our Europe-beating performance only applies to the vaccines. We've made as many errors as other countries around the world in other respects.
    I think the reading of the gung ho stuff is a bit misleading. Sure people are exultant about the vaccination rollout, and there is a level of peverse satisfaction at doing better than others, but it's out of context - of course at this moment people are gung ho, but that doesn't mean people have for the whole time, in fact at other times it was one sided and repetitive about how bad we were doing, why weren't we closing the borders, why is Boris opening up at Christmas etc.

    It's like telling the winners of a GE to tone down the smug attitude the day afterwards as there are major problems coming - a bit more reflection will be appropriate, but you can given them a little while to enjoy it.

    So I don't agree with the idea that celebrating vaccination and noting the comparitive problems elsewhere is the same thing as saying the UK has handled Covid brilliantly - a few claim the UK is in a better position if you look at excess deaths, but I cannot think of anyone offhand who thinks we have done brilliantly. That seems to be presumed because people are focusing on recent good news.

    If I say 'great vaccination figures today, but shame about the numbers in X', it doesn't mean I think the UK is faultless and X is shit.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    edited March 2021

    DavidL said:

    Today's reported death tolls in Italy (502) and France (408) are indeed utterly depressing, as I'm sure we all agree.

    But people do seem to forget that here in the UK our death toll averaged over 1,000 daily for three weeks in January (8-29), and was over 500 every day between December 17th and February 13th. We have short memories. I find it hard to be triumphalist. Despite our great vaccine success, it doesn't look like our final death toll or rate will be out of line with the rest of Europe; it may be a bit lower than some (Belgium, Italy) but higher than others (Germany, Scandinavia). But I may be wrong.

    No I think you have it pretty much spot on. The difference, however, is that our excess deaths were caused by the Kent variant over the period you identify. The European excess deaths in April, May, June, July are going to be caused by quite unbelievable stupidity. It really didn't have to be that way.
    I don't disagree. But we have had our own moments of stupidity: not taking decisive action when cases rose rapidly in autumn; not shutting everything down as soon as the greater infectivity of the Kent variant became apparent; mixed messages at Xmas; reckless with regard to international travel.

    I'm just finding the gung ho tone of recent threads depressing and one-sided (as well as repetitive: how often do some posters have to repeat that Europe is terrible?). It's as if the UK has handled Covid brilliantly, and the evil Europeans have been terrible. The data doesn't show that. Our Europe-beating performance only applies to the vaccines. We've made as many errors as other countries around the world in other respects.
    Whilst our record will look pretty terrible when all is said and done, at least the fuck ups by our government came from them kidding themselves about how bad things were.

    What's going on in Europe is something else altogether. It's hard not to come to the conclusion that something really shady is going on.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,227
    ydoethur said:

    Why did ex-Labour and non-voters in the north switch to the Brexit party in large numbers?

    There seem, from such polling as I have seen, to be three reasons:

    1) Brexit
    2) Labour being led by a racist Britain hating lunatic (I paraphrase)
    3) They voted for Labour for decades and nothing got better.

    So, where do we stand with that?

    1) has happened. Yes, yes, I know it’s a shambles and Johnson and the EU between them keep finding new and egregious ways to screw things up. But that is now a settled issue. Nobody apart possibly from the Greens will be standing on a rejoin platform.

    2) has resolved itself. Corbyn is no longer even a Labour MP. Starmer may be bland but he’s not getting the huge negatives the Jezaster had.

    3) remains salient and will doubtless in light of Darlington etc dominate the campaign for the Tories, along with vaccines.

    But I’m doubtful if that is salient enough for Brexit former Labour voters to switch to the Tories. More likely they will stay at home now.

    So although the Tories have a decent chance of a gain I think Labour are the value here.

    That said, much depends on the candidate. I agree with @eek that Laura Pidcock will definitely be interested and if, God forbid, she is selected Labour will be lucky to come third.

    The effects of 2) are nor dealt with, though whether it would have any impact now I am not sure.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    WHAT are the odds, that Boris will swing the Harlepool by-election, by getting the Queen to pardon the monkey?

    Is there a story I’ve missed about Stuart Drummond?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,598
    edited March 2021

    DavidL said:

    Today's reported death tolls in Italy (502) and France (408) are indeed utterly depressing, as I'm sure we all agree.

    But people do seem to forget that here in the UK our death toll averaged over 1,000 daily for three weeks in January (8-29), and was over 500 every day between December 17th and February 13th. We have short memories. I find it hard to be triumphalist. Despite our great vaccine success, it doesn't look like our final death toll or rate will be out of line with the rest of Europe; it may be a bit lower than some (Belgium, Italy) but higher than others (Germany, Scandinavia). But I may be wrong.

    No I think you have it pretty much spot on. The difference, however, is that our excess deaths were caused by the Kent variant over the period you identify. The European excess deaths in April, May, June, July are going to be caused by quite unbelievable stupidity. It really didn't have to be that way.
    I don't disagree. But we have had our own moments of stupidity: not taking decisive action when cases rose rapidly in autumn; not shutting everything down as soon as the greater infectivity of the Kent variant became apparent; mixed messages at Xmas; reckless with regard to international travel.

    I'm just finding the gung ho tone of recent threads depressing and one-sided: it's as if the UK has handled Covid brilliantly, and the evil Europeans have been terrible. The data doesn't show that. Our Europe-beating performance only applies to the vaccines. We've made as many errors as other countries around the world in other respects.
    The UK's various regimes are currently handling Covid better than at any time in the pandemic - which is encouraging as it suggests lessons have been learned. There are still things we could do better, but we have a projected way out of this that appears to be delivering even better than we could have hoped. Two cheers at least.

    Unfortunately, mainland Europe is having a mare. They are following a course that looks destined to mean they will be coming out of lockdown weeks if not months later than the UK, having lost thousands of lives unnecessarily along the way. Lives that could have been saved with a better vaccine regime, from acquisition to dispersal. There is going to be a further hit to their GDP which will have an overhang of financial issues that will need to be addressed.

    Having gone for the UK's vaccine so aggressively will also do little to calm tensions between the UK and the EU. This at a time when we need sensible discussions to remedy the many and varied issues to fine tune/revise wholesale. The UK may get unexpected benefits from not having behaved like a brat on supplies of vaccines. It won't just be pharma that has been taking notes. That will fuel further angst in Brussels.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Leslie Evans will be burnt as a sacrificial offering for the greater good, only consoled by an absurd payoff to keep her mouth shut. Sturgeon's husband may well be burned in the same conflagration. But Nicola will walk through the flames like Daenerys Targaryen Khaleesi. It is foretold.
    Did you have to give us the image of Nicola Sturgeon stark naked and covered in soot and dragons?
    Its called public service broadcasting. But can Salmond play the part of Jon Snow?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    I guess a lot of PBers won't be buying phones from Utah.

    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1371916704645849089

    Cox bans porn?

    Thank goodness there is not a state, or a union of states, nearby which also sell tablets and phones.

    And thank goodness that blocking access to something deals with the desire to access it.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/03/16/european-commission-hits-eu-governments-hoarding-unused-covid/

    European Commission hits out at EU governments for hoarding unused Covid vaccines
    Rare rebuke from Brussels comes after Germany, France, Italy and Spain join 11 other EU nations in halting rollout of AstraZeneca jab

    not me Gov......
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    DavidL said:

    Today's reported death tolls in Italy (502) and France (408) are indeed utterly depressing, as I'm sure we all agree.

    But people do seem to forget that here in the UK our death toll averaged over 1,000 daily for three weeks in January (8-29), and was over 500 every day between December 17th and February 13th. We have short memories. I find it hard to be triumphalist. Despite our great vaccine success, it doesn't look like our final death toll or rate will be out of line with the rest of Europe; it may be a bit lower than some (Belgium, Italy) but higher than others (Germany, Scandinavia). But I may be wrong.

    No I think you have it pretty much spot on. The difference, however, is that our excess deaths were caused by the Kent variant over the period you identify. The European excess deaths in April, May, June, July are going to be caused by quite unbelievable stupidity. It really didn't have to be that way.
    I don't disagree. But we have had our own moments of stupidity: not taking decisive action when cases rose rapidly in autumn; not shutting everything down as soon as the greater infectivity of the Kent variant became apparent; mixed messages at Xmas; reckless with regard to international travel.

    I'm just finding the gung ho tone of recent threads depressing and one-sided (as well as repetitive: how often do some posters have to repeat that Europe is terrible?). It's as if the UK has handled Covid brilliantly, and the evil Europeans have been terrible. The data doesn't show that. Our Europe-beating performance only applies to the vaccines. We've made as many errors as other countries around the world in other respects.
    The flip-flop from 'we love Europe, it's the EU with which we have a problem' to 'fucking Europe' has been remarkable, and revealing.
    I don't follow your point - is it about people confusing the EU and Europe? As people have always done that, pro and con.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Leslie Evans will be burnt as a sacrificial offering for the greater good, only consoled by an absurd payoff to keep her mouth shut. Sturgeon's husband may well be burned in the same conflagration. But Nicola will walk through the flames like Daenerys Targaryen Khaleesi. It is foretold.
    Did you have to give us the image of Nicola Sturgeon stark naked and covered in soot and dragons?
    Its called public service broadcasting. But can Salmond play the part of Jon Snow?
    He seems more a Littlefinger character.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,870

    I guess a lot of PBers won't be buying phones from Utah.

    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1371916704645849089

    That's a hard tablet to swallow!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,892
    GIN1138 said:


    Perhaps in some seats. But I just can't see Hartlepool ever voting in a Conservative MP.

    But we'll see I guess.

    The strange thing is, the Conservatives have often been serious challengers in Hartlepool or The Hartlepools as it was previously known.

    The question is whether Tice's vote last time will somehow automatically transfer to the Conservative candidate this time. I think the evidence of, for example, 2017 is unconvincing.

    It may be a post-Brexit post-Corbyn Labour candidate will have more success in rebuilding the Labour vote share - after all, as 2017 showed, the Labour vote can return and quickly. Indeed, the Labour vote share in 2015 was lower than in 2019 and I think you could argue UKIP cost the Conservatives the seat in 2015 and possibly 2019 as well.

  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,822
    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pidcock is liked by the Labour left for a simple reason: her worldview reflects their worldview. It’s like asking why do Essex Tories like Priti Patel (apparently she’s quite popular there).

    I must be the only person on here who doesn’t really rate Ed Balls. I’ve never really been his biggest fan, tbf. David Miliband wouldn’t be an improvement for Labour either: Labour would have the same issues they do with Starmer at the moment, plus with Miliband’s baggage as having been in the last Labour government.

    He’s grown on me since leaving government. But I still don’t rate him. It’s just I now think he isn’t a brilliant politician instead of thinking he’s a nasty piece of work as well as not a brilliant politician.
    I'd happily have seen Balls strung up when he was in government. I think its clear that Brown had him defending a view he didn't believe in. That's a major problem for him if he ever returns.

    As I said below I think he's more a LD now anyway. He, Mrs Balls, and much of the more reasonable elements in Labour have changed their views post Corbyn.
    So you’ve gone from having them strung up by Balls to Labour having Balls dropped?
    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pidcock is liked by the Labour left for a simple reason: her worldview reflects their worldview. It’s like asking why do Essex Tories like Priti Patel (apparently she’s quite popular there).

    I must be the only person on here who doesn’t really rate Ed Balls. I’ve never really been his biggest fan, tbf. David Miliband wouldn’t be an improvement for Labour either: Labour would have the same issues they do with Starmer at the moment, plus with Miliband’s baggage as having been in the last Labour government.

    He’s grown on me since leaving government. But I still don’t rate him. It’s just I now think he isn’t a brilliant politician instead of thinking he’s a nasty piece of work as well as not a brilliant politician.
    I'd happily have seen Balls strung up when he was in government. I think its clear that Brown had him defending a view he didn't believe in. That's a major problem for him if he ever returns.

    As I said below I think he's more a LD now anyway. He, Mrs Balls, and much of the more reasonable elements in Labour have changed their views post Corbyn.
    So you’ve gone from having them strung up by Balls to Labour having Balls dropped?
    I changed my view on Ed Balls pretty much the moment he read his concession speech. Why couldn't he have displayed some of that humanity when he was an MP rather than being a hyper-partisan cockhead?
    I've since heard stories suggesting the hyper-partisan cockhead look was in large part for show.
    My favourite Ed Balls story was told by Yvette Cooper. Following the loss of his seat, he decided to learn the piano, and was dedicated about spending half an hour each day practicing. The half hour he chose was 8-8.30am, as Yvette was trying to get the children out to school. She seemed baffled by this, but apparently didn't seek to get him to change to a slightly easier time.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I can't see the Tories taking this seat.

    Have you added in all the UKIPER/BREXITY Party voters from 2019 to the Conservative column? If you do it becomes quite clear.
    A lot of them won't go Conservative though. This is what Farage knew. A lot of old Labour just can't bring themselves to vote Tory... Without BXP most of their voters will stay at home.
    DavidL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I can't see the Tories taking this seat.

    Have you added in all the UKIPER/BREXITY Party voters from 2019 to the Conservative column? If you do it becomes quite clear.
    But there is no same basis for doing such a thing. There just isn't.
    The perception is the Party led by Johnson isn't a distant, elitist cabal of overindulged Southern, public schoolboys. After all Johnson goes out to work in a hi-viz jacket or a lab coat like the rest of us grafters. Johnson and his compatriots have the interests of hard working blue collar staff in their hearts. For goodness sake they have spent the last year feeding our bank accounts with free money. This isn't the Tory Party of Home or Heath, or even Cameron and Osborne for that matter. It is the party of "Boris", infact are they even called Conservatives anymore?

    The perception of the Labour Party at present, is that of Southern public school elitists who have never done a day's work in their lives. They are only interested in taking the knee, supporting foreigners, Rochdale cabbies, and people who pull down statues of patriotic heroes.

    For this perception to change, economic hardship will need to bite, and when it does, Dido Harding and PPE procurement scandals will become important to people struggling to pay their mortgage. If it doesn't Boris can happily celebrate a 25 year premiership.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Paging Malc! :D
    Rank Bad Un for sure, hopefully she does not get away with it.
    PS: Salmond offered them up weeks ago but Sturgeon had her pet Lord Advocate tell the inquiry they should not ask for them as they were secret.
    Who first said, the cover-up is worse than the crime? The Code of Hammurabi?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    Today's reported death tolls in Italy (502) and France (408) are indeed utterly depressing, as I'm sure we all agree.

    But people do seem to forget that here in the UK our death toll averaged over 1,000 daily for three weeks in January (8-29), and was over 500 every day between December 17th and February 13th. We have short memories. I find it hard to be triumphalist. Despite our great vaccine success, it doesn't look like our final death toll or rate will be out of line with the rest of Europe; it may be a bit lower than some (Belgium, Italy) but higher than others (Germany, Scandinavia). But I may be wrong.

    No I think you have it pretty much spot on. The difference, however, is that our excess deaths were caused by the Kent variant over the period you identify. The European excess deaths in April, May, June, July are going to be caused by quite unbelievable stupidity. It really didn't have to be that way.
    I don't disagree. But we have had our own moments of stupidity: not taking decisive action when cases rose rapidly in autumn; not shutting everything down as soon as the greater infectivity of the Kent variant became apparent; mixed messages at Xmas; reckless with regard to international travel.

    I'm just finding the gung ho tone of recent threads depressing and one-sided (as well as repetitive: how often do some posters have to repeat that Europe is terrible?). It's as if the UK has handled Covid brilliantly, and the evil Europeans have been terrible. The data doesn't show that. Our Europe-beating performance only applies to the vaccines. We've made as many errors as other countries around the world in other respects.
    The flip-flop from 'we love Europe, it's the EU with which we have a problem' to 'fucking Europe' has been remarkable, and revealing.
    I don't follow your point - is it about people confusing the EU and Europe? As people have always done that, pro and con.
    I have certainly gone to fucking europe but then for me its personal, I have a sister and niece in sweden and a daughter and her family of 4 in holland. European governments are putting my family at risk by their vaccine stupidity
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    ydoethur said:

    Pidcock is liked by the Labour left for a simple reason: her worldview reflects their worldview. It’s like asking why do Essex Tories like Priti Patel (apparently she’s quite popular there).

    I must be the only person on here who doesn’t really rate Ed Balls. I’ve never really been his biggest fan, tbf. David Miliband wouldn’t be an improvement for Labour either: Labour would have the same issues they do with Starmer at the moment, plus with Miliband’s baggage as having been in the last Labour government.

    He’s grown on me since leaving government. But I still don’t rate him. It’s just I now think he isn’t a brilliant politician instead of thinking he’s a nasty piece of work as well as not a brilliant politician.
    Yes, I remember how much he was disliked back in 2015. Makes reading all the positive takes on him now even more weirder in light of that!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited March 2021

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I can't see the Tories taking this seat.

    Have you added in all the UKIPER/BREXITY Party voters from 2019 to the Conservative column? If you do it becomes quite clear.
    A lot of them won't go Conservative though. This is what Farage knew. A lot of old Labour just can't bring themselves to vote Tory... Without BXP most of their voters will stay at home.
    That can't be true though, can it? When you look at the swings in the red wall seats for 2019, old labour voters must be going for the tories, musn't they? and plenty of them.
    Perhaps in some seats. But I just can't see Hartlepool ever voting in a Conservative MP.

    But we'll see I guess.
    I know what you mean. I still can't believe some of the seats that did go, went, though. Bolsover!
    I'm glad Skinner was there to be defeated rather than the seat flipped after he left. It's no matter to me if seats in the area are Tory or Labour, and maybe he was actually a nice man (and must have worked hard for his constituents), but he seemed like one of those people who delight in being rude to opponents which gets my back up. Not saying faux courtesy like JRM is the way to go, but I know too many politicians who get on great in a personal capacity with opponents to think you need to be so partisan.

    Still, his victorious opponent has called for him to get a statue, which is pretty funny.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Leslie Evans will be burnt as a sacrificial offering for the greater good, only consoled by an absurd payoff to keep her mouth shut. Sturgeon's husband may well be burned in the same conflagration. But Nicola will walk through the flames like Daenerys Targaryen Khaleesi. It is foretold.
    Did you have to give us the image of Nicola Sturgeon stark naked and covered in soot and dragons?
    Its called public service broadcasting. But can Salmond play the part of Jon Snow?
    He seems more a Littlefinger character.
    Is that what the women said? Pretty sure he had a larger opinion of himself.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    ydoethur said:

    Pidcock is liked by the Labour left for a simple reason: her worldview reflects their worldview. It’s like asking why do Essex Tories like Priti Patel (apparently she’s quite popular there).

    I must be the only person on here who doesn’t really rate Ed Balls. I’ve never really been his biggest fan, tbf. David Miliband wouldn’t be an improvement for Labour either: Labour would have the same issues they do with Starmer at the moment, plus with Miliband’s baggage as having been in the last Labour government.

    He’s grown on me since leaving government. But I still don’t rate him. It’s just I now think he isn’t a brilliant politician instead of thinking he’s a nasty piece of work as well as not a brilliant politician.
    Yes, I remember how much he was disliked back in 2015. Makes reading all the positive takes on him now even more weirder in light of that!
    I dislike him too and am glad he's gone.

    But he was a serious threat. A nasty piece of work and not good for the country, but a proper threat. Good riddance.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,672

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I can't see the Tories taking this seat.

    Have you added in all the UKIPER/BREXITY Party voters from 2019 to the Conservative column? If you do it becomes quite clear.
    A lot of them won't go Conservative though. This is what Farage knew. A lot of old Labour just can't bring themselves to vote Tory... Without BXP most of their voters will stay at home.
    DavidL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I can't see the Tories taking this seat.

    Have you added in all the UKIPER/BREXITY Party voters from 2019 to the Conservative column? If you do it becomes quite clear.
    But there is no same basis for doing such a thing. There just isn't.
    The perception is the Party led by Johnson isn't a distant, elitist cabal of overindulged Southern, public schoolboys. After all Johnson goes out to work in a hi-viz jacket or a lab coat like the rest of us grafters. Johnson and his compatriots have the interests of hard working blue collar staff in their hearts. For goodness sake they have spent the last year feeding our bank accounts with free money. This isn't the Tory Party of Home or Heath, or even Cameron and Osborne for that matter. It is the party of "Boris", infact are they even called Conservatives anymore?

    The perception of the Labour Party at present, is that of Southern public school elitists who have never done a day's work in their lives. They are only interested in taking the knee, supporting foreigners, Rochdale cabbies, and people who pull down statues of patriotic heroes.

    For this perception to change, economic hardship will need to bite, and when it does, Dido Harding and PPE procurement scandals will become important to people struggling to pay their mortgage. If it doesn't Boris can happily celebrate a 25 year premiership.
    Is this some kind of a joke post?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    I guess a lot of PBers won't be buying phones from Utah.

    https://twitter.com/AP/status/1371916704645849089

    Just for that crack, Church Formerly Known as LDS and/or Mormon, will delay your family's posthumous baptisms by another couple centuries.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,586
    "Moonrose82, Lovely town, Russia, less than a minute ago

    The article says all of his organs, including heart, were healthy. And all of a sudden he dies exactly one day after a jab?! Given that his other relatives did not suffer from the vaccine, I guess he had some genetic condition which made him very vulnerable. I think no one wants to die like this, after being vaccinated. If he didn't have the jab, he would be alive now."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9368261/AstraZenecas-Covid-vaccine-not-linked-Italian-teachers-death-autopsy-finds.html

    Must be a chance this is a troll trying to wind people up.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited March 2021

    DavidL said:

    Today's reported death tolls in Italy (502) and France (408) are indeed utterly depressing, as I'm sure we all agree.

    But people do seem to forget that here in the UK our death toll averaged over 1,000 daily for three weeks in January (8-29), and was over 500 every day between December 17th and February 13th. We have short memories. I find it hard to be triumphalist. Despite our great vaccine success, it doesn't look like our final death toll or rate will be out of line with the rest of Europe; it may be a bit lower than some (Belgium, Italy) but higher than others (Germany, Scandinavia). But I may be wrong.

    No I think you have it pretty much spot on. The difference, however, is that our excess deaths were caused by the Kent variant over the period you identify. The European excess deaths in April, May, June, July are going to be caused by quite unbelievable stupidity. It really didn't have to be that way.
    I don't disagree. But we have had our own moments of stupidity: not taking decisive action when cases rose rapidly in autumn; not shutting everything down as soon as the greater infectivity of the Kent variant became apparent; mixed messages at Xmas; reckless with regard to international travel.

    I'm just finding the gung ho tone of recent threads depressing and one-sided (as well as repetitive: how often do some posters have to repeat that Europe is terrible?). It's as if the UK has handled Covid brilliantly, and the evil Europeans have been terrible. The data doesn't show that. Our Europe-beating performance only applies to the vaccines. We've made as many errors as other countries around the world in other respects.
    The flip-flop from 'we love Europe, it's the EU with which we have a problem' to 'fucking Europe' has been remarkable, and revealing.
    Oh i don't think we've ever had much love for European leaders/Governments.
  • I guess his internal polling was a load of shite.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1371899002506129413
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    kle4 said:

    Pidcock is liked by the Labour left for a simple reason: her worldview reflects their worldview. It’s like asking why do Essex Tories like Priti Patel (apparently she’s quite popular there).

    I must be the only person on here who doesn’t really rate Ed Balls. I’ve never really been his biggest fan, tbf. David Miliband wouldn’t be an improvement for Labour either: Labour would have the same issues they do with Starmer at the moment, plus with Miliband’s baggage as having been in the last Labour government.

    I don't rate Ed Balls. I didn't like him one bit when he was an MP (while I thought Ed M was fine), and sure like many politician's he's more likable out of office, I don't see what he did that showed his quality compared to others.
    Yep, my thoughts exactly. While Ed M didn’t have what it took to be a leader, I found him a lot more likeable than Balls. He’s definitely the most interesting thinker out of everyone in the shadow cabinet, and unlike Starmer appears to have something of a vision.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,672

    Yes Minister on BBC4, followed by Reggie Perrin!

    I didn't get where I am today by watching repeats on BBC!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    I guess his internal polling was a load of shite.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1371899002506129413

    Eh, might as spend what they were planning anyway and hope the Assembly losses aren't too bad. Not sure saving a bit of dosh will be that significant.
This discussion has been closed.