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Ladbrokes make the Tories odds on favourites to take Hartlepool in the first Westminster by-election

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited March 16 in General
imageLadbrokes make the Tories odds on favourites to take Hartlepool in the first Westminster by-election of the Parliament – politicalbetting.com

Ladbrokes: Tories are odds-on favourites to win the Hartlepool by-election. pic.twitter.com/eTBE61F8dw

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,199
    Looks like cases have plateaued on about 5k.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,669
    edited March 16
    But as I pointed out earlier today.

    All the Tory candidate needs to do is point at Stockton, Middlesbrough and Darlington and say look what you could get if you vote the right way.

    We also know from RP that the Hartlepool Labour Party isn't going to be supporting any centralist candidate imposed on them.

    So I do see a Tory win and very little reason for it to be anything else.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,578
    On current polls yes Labour should hold the seat but the high Brexit Party vote in Hartlepool in 2019 changes the picture somewhat if BXP voters all go Tory this time. Labour's best bet is probably a well know local councillor as candidate.

    If it is held on the same day as the local elections and Scottish, London and Welsh elections in May anyway even a Tory gain would be somewhat overshadowed
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 19,861
    edited March 16
    I make the Cons clear fav here. There's a big hard right vote to be squeezed.
  • Tory gain here.

    Only way I don't see it happening is is Farage's mob run a very energetic campaign.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,562

    I'd be keen to know ....why now ?

    The timing of this by-election, at the likely peak of the vaccine bounce, is hardly helpful to Labour.

    Perhaps even actively hostile.

    Will Mike Hill be making further interventions ? Will they be inimical? He looks like a man with a grudge.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 1,781
    Big jump in laternal flow positives today - currently less than a third are getting PCR confirmation so we'll have to see if these are real or not.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,108
    If it’s a Tory gain, then I guess that’s the story of the night isn’t it? Starmer doesn’t even get to point at decent results vs the 2017 baseline overnight.

    Off topic - My wife has been working at a vaccine centre. Yesterday and into today there has been a massive uptick in refusals of AZ, especially amongst Asian communities.

    If the EU has screwed this up, then sod them. There have to be consequences. It makes me angry.
  • Actually thinking about it weren't the Lib Dems the favourites at one point for the Hartlepool by election in 2004?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,577
    Wow, two government by-election gains from the opposition in three years?

    Looks like Lab have thrown away a PCC election too, with their candidate looking to walk away at the last minute to contest the Parliamentary seat instead.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086
    Bloody hell, 1,370 lateral flow positives registered yesterday, by specimen date! PCR tests seem to be falling as normal but the huge uptick in LFT has definitely begun to make the numbers look a bit odd.

    In other news 110 deaths, I think today or tomorrow could be the last ever day we see triple digits deaths reported barring any unforeseen backdating.

    I think I need to find that Gandalf gif again.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 9,422
    Labour really have shit the bed on this one. Here's Tory Teesside PCC candidate Steve Turner on Twitter:
    https://twitter.com/steviet1610/status/1371848912512946183
    Meanwhile the usually active Paul Williams is maintaining radio silence. Whether it is because he is elbows deep in Covid doing a shift at the hospital, or region have told him to go dark, the damage has been done.

    Tory PCC leaflets will all be full of "Labour's candidate not interested in the job". Labour haven't a bloody clue how to do politics, the Tories on Teesside have an excellent spin machine, its another self-imposed red fuck-up. Labour knew well in advance that Hill was heading for the Chiltern Hundreds, and still managed to not even think "what happens if the press puts our PCC candidate n=in the frame"?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086
    edited March 16

    Tory gain here.

    Only way I don't see it happening is is Farage's mob run a very energetic campaign.

    Difficult for Nige's mob with Brexit in the rear view mirror and the vaccine programme going great guns.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,577

    Looks like cases have plateaued on about 5k.

    That’s awesome, given the testing numbers are up so high.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 2,448
    Deaths looks very low today - if I'm reading it right less than half of this time last week.

  • I'd be keen to know ....why now ?

    The timing of this by-election, at the likely peak of the vaccine bounce, is hardly helpful to Labour.

    Perhaps even actively hostile.

    Will Mike Hill be making further interventions ? Will they be inimical? He looks like a man with a grudge.

    It was Starmer ousting him.

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1371792395927425028

    Hill is facing allegations of unfair dismissal, sexual assault and harassment in an employment tribunal. He failed last year in an attempt to keep his name secret in the legal proceedings.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mp-mike-hill-resigns-to-trigger-red-wall-by-election-0zngz8mrv
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086
    Cookie said:

    Deaths looks very low today - if I'm reading it right less than half of this time last week.

    Vaccine effect.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 599
    Obvious corollary question: if the Tories *do* take this seat, should we be anticipating a Falklands-esque "vaccination success" bounce at the next GE? Or are we too far out?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,238
    I’d say Labour hold. SKS is not someone who’d be particularly to the taste of Hartlepudlians (nor was Mandy, of course), but he’s not utterly toxic in the way that Corbyn was, and I’d expect Labour would pick up the majority of the Brexit vote (that was where it came from in the first place).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,020

    Looks like cases have plateaued on about 5k.

    Positive tests!!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426
    I think Lab should be firm favourite.

    The Brexit vote will be lifelong Labour voters who couldn't bring themselves to vote Tory even to Get Brexit Done.

    They should return to Labour if BXP isn't there. If they go Tory that should be major shocking news.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,491
    edited March 16
    MaxPB said:

    Tory gain here.

    Only way I don't see it happening is is Farage's mob run a very energetic campaign.

    Difficult for Nige's mob with Brexit in the rear view mirror and the vaccine programme going great guns.
    He's on the Boris Johnson is a woke liberal he made us all wear masks and destroyed the economy wagon.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426

    Looks like cases have plateaued on about 5k.

    Positive tests!!
    Positive tests are cases. It's how it's been defined for a year now.

    Symptoms have never been a factor.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 4,537
    MaxPB said:

    Tory gain here.

    Only way I don't see it happening is is Farage's mob run a very energetic campaign.

    Difficult for Nige's mob with Brexit in the rear view mirror and the vaccine programme going great guns.
    'Vote for us if you want out of lockdown sooner'

    and

    'We will never lock you down again, ever.'


    Might have some traction. Who knows.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,577
    edited March 16

    If it’s a Tory gain, then I guess that’s the story of the night isn’t it? Starmer doesn’t even get to point at decent results vs the 2017 baseline overnight.

    Off topic - My wife has been working at a vaccine centre. Yesterday and into today there has been a massive uptick in refusals of AZ, especially amongst Asian communities.

    If the EU has screwed this up, then sod them. There have to be consequences. It makes me angry.

    Yes, the by-election is now the biggest story of the night, if it’s anything but a safe Lab hold.

    That’s really sh1t about the vaccine centres. There’s serious international damage being done here, including to the third-world Covax effort - and with every Russian and Chinese troll operation now retwatting genuine quotes from European politicians casting doubt.

    Dare I say it, but AZ need to raise their price a fraction and deploy the Big Pharma lobbyists.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426
    Shame it looks like we'll run out of runs to chase before Buttler can get his Century. He deserves the chance to get his Century.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,142
    edited March 16
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Can we agree that Sheldon Whitehouse is one of the more splendid names for a US politician ?
    As has been noted before, that he has not had a presidential run under the banner 'Send Whitehouse to the White House' is a travesty. Truly a sign of a society in decline.

    Edit: No Tory gain please - knowing this lot they'll start agitating for an early election as a result.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,695
    MaxPB said:

    Cookie said:

    Deaths looks very low today - if I'm reading it right less than half of this time last week.

    Vaccine effect.
    Down in daily double-figure deaths this week.

    That should concentrate minds in Europe, where they are looking to be solidly in triple figures.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,244
    MaxPB said:

    Bloody hell, 1,370 lateral flow positives registered yesterday, by specimen date! PCR tests seem to be falling as normal but the huge uptick in LFT has definitely begun to make the numbers look a bit odd...

    If the cause is transmission on schools, that wouldn't be particularly odd since you'd expect LFTs to pick up infection before PCR (which doesn't happen until someone displays symptoms, a few days later), and also most younger people infected would be asymptomatic and wouldn't ordinarily get PCR tested at all.

    But we really need a week or two more of LFT results to compare like with like.
  • Sandpit said:

    If it’s a Tory gain, then I guess that’s the story of the night isn’t it? Starmer doesn’t even get to point at decent results vs the 2017 baseline overnight.

    Off topic - My wife has been working at a vaccine centre. Yesterday and into today there has been a massive uptick in refusals of AZ, especially amongst Asian communities.

    If the EU has screwed this up, then sod them. There have to be consequences. It makes me angry.

    Yes, the by-election is now the biggest story of the night, if it’s anything but a safe Lab hold.

    That’s really sh1t about the vaccine centres. There’s serious international damage being done here, including to the third-world Covax effort - and with every Russian and Chinese troll operation now retwatting genuine quotes from European politicians casting doubt.

    Dare I say it, but AZ need to raise their price a fraction and deploy the Big Pharma lobbyists.
    Nah, the biggest result of the night will be the result in Scotland, whatever the result in Hartlepool it won't have an impact on the future of the UK or provoke a constitutional crisis.

    Or maybe the end of Sturgeon.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,562


    I'd be keen to know ....why now ?

    The timing of this by-election, at the likely peak of the vaccine bounce, is hardly helpful to Labour.

    Perhaps even actively hostile.

    Will Mike Hill be making further interventions ? Will they be inimical? He looks like a man with a grudge.

    It was Starmer ousting him.

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1371792395927425028

    Hill is facing allegations of unfair dismissal, sexual assault and harassment in an employment tribunal. He failed last year in an attempt to keep his name secret in the legal proceedings.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mp-mike-hill-resigns-to-trigger-red-wall-by-election-0zngz8mrv
    But, they remain allegations. Perhaps they will be proven, perhaps not.

    So, why now? As e.g., opposed to the autumn, which would have been easier for Labour.

    Perhaps the allegations are so incendiary that Labour felt that they had to throw him overboard asap ?

    But. my point is that a man who is chucked overboard is not usually full of the milk of human kindness towards those who did the chucking.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,176
    If Labour can't hold their own seats while in Opposition - seats held under Corbyn - then annihilation beckons...
  • eekeek Posts: 11,669
    Andy_JS said:

    Why are Labour being tipped to lose one of the most working-class seats in England? The big question of the day.

    See post 2 of this thread.
  • If it’s a Tory gain, then I guess that’s the story of the night isn’t it? Starmer doesn’t even get to point at decent results vs the 2017 baseline overnight.

    Off topic - My wife has been working at a vaccine centre. Yesterday and into today there has been a massive uptick in refusals of AZ, especially amongst Asian communities.

    If the EU has screwed this up, then sod them. There have to be consequences. It makes me angry.

    Do you mind saying which part of the country your wife is working?

    My father is performing vaccines in South Yorkshire and is targeting Asian communities, he's not noticed any refusals, he's had a higher than normal questions about the vaccines in general but reassures them all so they take it.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,669

    If Labour can't hold their own seats while in Opposition - seats held under Corbyn - then annihilation beckons...

    This was a seat that Nigel cost the Tories in 2019 - the Tories would have won it then if the Brexit party hadn't stood and split the vote.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,695
    Those numbers should be stapled to the inner eyelid of every EU politician.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,108

    Sandpit said:

    If it’s a Tory gain, then I guess that’s the story of the night isn’t it? Starmer doesn’t even get to point at decent results vs the 2017 baseline overnight.

    Off topic - My wife has been working at a vaccine centre. Yesterday and into today there has been a massive uptick in refusals of AZ, especially amongst Asian communities.

    If the EU has screwed this up, then sod them. There have to be consequences. It makes me angry.

    Yes, the by-election is now the biggest story of the night, if it’s anything but a safe Lab hold.

    That’s really sh1t about the vaccine centres. There’s serious international damage being done here, including to the third-world Covax effort - and with every Russian and Chinese troll operation now retwatting genuine quotes from European politicians casting doubt.

    Dare I say it, but AZ need to raise their price a fraction and deploy the Big Pharma lobbyists.
    Nah, the biggest result of the night will be the result in Scotland, whatever the result in Hartlepool it won't have an impact on the future of the UK or provoke a constitutional crisis.

    Or maybe the end of Sturgeon.
    But will that be on the night? I thought I’d read very little would be (but I’d assumed they will do the by-election).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,244
    edited March 16

    Looks like cases have plateaued on about 5k.

    Positive tests!!
    Positive tests are cases. It's how it's been defined for a year now.

    Symptoms have never been a factor.
    They have, as previously you were far less likely to be tested if asymptomatic.
    That's no longer the case with the widespread use of LFTs.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,020

    Looks like cases have plateaued on about 5k.

    Positive tests!!
    Positive tests are cases. It's how it's been defined for a year now.

    Symptoms have never been a factor.
    Yes but in the context of a huge increase in testing (in schools), it’s no longer a like for like comparison.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,943
    HYUFD said:

    On current polls yes Labour should hold the seat but the high Brexit Party vote in Hartlepool in 2019 changes the picture somewhat if BXP voters all go Tory this time. Labour's best bet is probably a well know local councillor as candidate.

    If it is held on the same day as the local elections and Scottish, London and Welsh elections in May anyway even a Tory gain would be somewhat overshadowed

    That is an easy Tory gain HYUFD. It doesn't help that Mr Hill's exit is due to some alleged behaviour that might not go down too well with voters at this very point in time either.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 13,012

    If Labour can't hold their own seats while in Opposition - seats held under Corbyn - then annihilation beckons...

    TBF the timing stinks for them - oh well never mind
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426
    One thing T20 has done is really improve the types of shots played in Cricket.

    The reverse sweep done nowadays is like an overhead kick in the box in football, a really impressive shot to see.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 3,137

    Looks like cases have plateaued on about 5k.

    I looked at the England specimen date 7-day rates by age heatmap, and it's clear that there's been an increase in cases among secondary school age kids - so this is the return to school testing.

    It also implies that cases in other age groups have continued to decline. So far so good.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,798
    Andy_JS said:

    Why are Labour being tipped to lose one of the most working-class seats in England? The big question of the day.

    Because of the assumption that the BXP vote will swing behind the Tories. Seems wrong-headed to me, but frankly who knows? You can make equally good arguments for them breaking Tory, breaking Labour or not bothering to turn up. I think the one thing nobody is expecting is a strong showing for RefUK.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 36,860

    Just back from vaccination centre in Ealing where I had to queue for around half an hour to get the AZN jab. Not feeling as though I’m about to succumb to a blood clot so far ...

    It sounds like turnout was brisk.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,020
    Nigelb said:

    Looks like cases have plateaued on about 5k.

    Positive tests!!
    Positive tests are cases. It's how it's been defined for a year now.

    Symptoms have never been a factor.
    They have, as previously you were far less likely to be tested if asymptomatic.
    That's no longer the case with the widespread use of LFTs.
    Exactly, the government really needs to get in front of this and communicate it clearly, otherwise we’ll be hearing very soon from the Zerocovidians.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,695
    Andy_JS said:

    Why are Labour being tipped to lose one of the most working-class seats in England? The big question of the day.

    Starmer - Captain "let's stop Brexit, by any means we can".

    Probably more toxic than the Brexit-ambivalent Corbyn in Hartlepool.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,108
    edited March 16

    If it’s a Tory gain, then I guess that’s the story of the night isn’t it? Starmer doesn’t even get to point at decent results vs the 2017 baseline overnight.

    Off topic - My wife has been working at a vaccine centre. Yesterday and into today there has been a massive uptick in refusals of AZ, especially amongst Asian communities.

    If the EU has screwed this up, then sod them. There have to be consequences. It makes me angry.

    Do you mind saying which part of the country your wife is working?

    My father is performing vaccines in South Yorkshire and is targeting Asian communities, he's not noticed any refusals, he's had a higher than normal questions about the vaccines in general but reassures them all so they take it.
    Bedfordshire. Apparently they had to start telling people it was AZ on the gates to avoid them kicking off inside.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,577
    edited March 16

    Sandpit said:

    If it’s a Tory gain, then I guess that’s the story of the night isn’t it? Starmer doesn’t even get to point at decent results vs the 2017 baseline overnight.

    Off topic - My wife has been working at a vaccine centre. Yesterday and into today there has been a massive uptick in refusals of AZ, especially amongst Asian communities.

    If the EU has screwed this up, then sod them. There have to be consequences. It makes me angry.

    Yes, the by-election is now the biggest story of the night, if it’s anything but a safe Lab hold.

    That’s really sh1t about the vaccine centres. There’s serious international damage being done here, including to the third-world Covax effort - and with every Russian and Chinese troll operation now retwatting genuine quotes from European politicians casting doubt.

    Dare I say it, but AZ need to raise their price a fraction and deploy the Big Pharma lobbyists.
    Nah, the biggest result of the night will be the result in Scotland, whatever the result in Hartlepool it won't have an impact on the future of the UK or provoke a constitutional crisis.

    Or maybe the end of Sturgeon.
    If it’s an SNP majority then yes, that’s the biggest story.

    But if not, Starmer could find hundreds of council seats and a great performance in Scotland overshadowed by results in Wales and Hartlepool...

    Can we get a SKS Exit Date market up on Betfair?
  • Sandpit said:

    If it’s a Tory gain, then I guess that’s the story of the night isn’t it? Starmer doesn’t even get to point at decent results vs the 2017 baseline overnight.

    Off topic - My wife has been working at a vaccine centre. Yesterday and into today there has been a massive uptick in refusals of AZ, especially amongst Asian communities.

    If the EU has screwed this up, then sod them. There have to be consequences. It makes me angry.

    Yes, the by-election is now the biggest story of the night, if it’s anything but a safe Lab hold.

    That’s really sh1t about the vaccine centres. There’s serious international damage being done here, including to the third-world Covax effort - and with every Russian and Chinese troll operation now retwatting genuine quotes from European politicians casting doubt.

    Dare I say it, but AZ need to raise their price a fraction and deploy the Big Pharma lobbyists.
    Nah, the biggest result of the night will be the result in Scotland, whatever the result in Hartlepool it won't have an impact on the future of the UK or provoke a constitutional crisis.

    Or maybe the end of Sturgeon.
    But will that be on the night? I thought I’d read very little would be (but I’d assumed they will do the by-election).
    Scotland will be counted from 9am onwards on Friday, but I think the plan is for Hartlepool to do something similar, there's locals and PCC elections on the same day.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426
    Nigelb said:

    Looks like cases have plateaued on about 5k.

    Positive tests!!
    Positive tests are cases. It's how it's been defined for a year now.

    Symptoms have never been a factor.
    They have, as previously you were far less likely to be tested if asymptomatic.
    That's no longer the case with the widespread use of LFTs.
    No they haven't. There's been routine asymptomatic testing in care homes, in hospitals, and via Test & Trace almost all along.

    An asymptomatic care or hospital staff member testing positive has been classed as a case not a test.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,798

    Just back from vaccination centre in Ealing where I had to queue for around half an hour to get the AZN jab. Not feeling as though I’m about to succumb to a blood clot so far ...

    It sounds like turnout was brisk.
    Macron's stupidity didn't seem to do much damage to the reputation of AZ over here, fortunately. We can only hope that public confidence continues to hold.
  • If it’s a Tory gain, then I guess that’s the story of the night isn’t it? Starmer doesn’t even get to point at decent results vs the 2017 baseline overnight.

    Off topic - My wife has been working at a vaccine centre. Yesterday and into today there has been a massive uptick in refusals of AZ, especially amongst Asian communities.

    If the EU has screwed this up, then sod them. There have to be consequences. It makes me angry.

    Do you mind saying which part of the country your wife is working?

    My father is performing vaccines in South Yorkshire and is targeting Asian communities, he's not noticed any refusals, he's had a higher than normal questions about the vaccines in general but reassures them all so they take it.
    Luton. Apparently they had to start telling people it was AZ on the gates to avoid them kicking off inside.
    Thanks.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K population

    image
  • If this is a Labour hold because of the BXP vote that's...good for Labour no?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    edited March 16
    UK local R

    image
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 1,781

    If it’s a Tory gain, then I guess that’s the story of the night isn’t it? Starmer doesn’t even get to point at decent results vs the 2017 baseline overnight.

    Off topic - My wife has been working at a vaccine centre. Yesterday and into today there has been a massive uptick in refusals of AZ, especially amongst Asian communities.

    If the EU has screwed this up, then sod them. There have to be consequences. It makes me angry.

    Do you mind saying which part of the country your wife is working?

    My father is performing vaccines in South Yorkshire and is targeting Asian communities, he's not noticed any refusals, he's had a higher than normal questions about the vaccines in general but reassures them all so they take it.
    Bedfordshire. Apparently they had to start telling people it was AZ on the gates to avoid them kicking off inside.
    Sod the EU indeed, but I hope anyone refusing what they're offered is invited to wait for the end of the roll out when they can purchase whichever vaccine they like once the mass roll out is done at their own leisure. Shouldn't let people look a gift horse in the mouth.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 2,448

    Looks like cases have plateaued on about 5k.

    Positive tests!!
    Positive tests are cases. It's how it's been defined for a year now.

    Symptoms have never been a factor.
    I'm trying to remember where I read about the meaning of 'cases' and the difference between CFR and IFR. I've Googled it, but without success - but it has shown that IFR and CFR are different things.
    coronavirus.data.gov.uk has a box labelled as 'cases' but defines its indicator as 'people who have tested positive' (which of course is not the same as positive tests, because some people may have had multiple tests).

    But I do agree we have always throughout the pandemic - erroneously in my view, but put that aside - used 'cases' as shorthand for 'people who have tested positive'.

    But it's only an indicator, for many reasons:
    - it's not a representative sample
    - there will be examples of people who are infected but not tested
    - there will be false positives and false negatives

    It is, however, a much stronger indicator than it was last year!

    I prefer to use the slightly 'positive tests' or 'people who have tested positive' because it is much clearer exactly what we are talking about. However you define cases (as infections, as symptomatic infections, as seriously symptomatic infections, or what) this will not be the same number on any given day as 'people who tested positive'.

    In fact, if we are to be even more correct, we ought to say 'new reports of people who have tested positive'!

    Right, I have just heard youngest arrive home from after school club and she is a pain in the arse until she is fed - so I will go and put tea on.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,560
    Positive cases decidedly plateauing - deaths still dropping sharply:


  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK case summary

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK Hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK deaths

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  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,020

    Nigelb said:

    Looks like cases have plateaued on about 5k.

    Positive tests!!
    Positive tests are cases. It's how it's been defined for a year now.

    Symptoms have never been a factor.
    They have, as previously you were far less likely to be tested if asymptomatic.
    That's no longer the case with the widespread use of LFTs.
    No they haven't. There's been routine asymptomatic testing in care homes, in hospitals, and via Test & Trace almost all along.

    An asymptomatic care or hospital staff member testing positive has been classed as a case not a test.
    No one is denying this, however the schools testing regime means that asymptomatic testing has skyrocketed since March 8. To the extent whereby the positive tests number is no longer comparable with that earlier in the winter.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    Age related data

    image
    image
    image
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,058

    Andy_JS said:

    Why are Labour being tipped to lose one of the most working-class seats in England? The big question of the day.

    Because of the assumption that the BXP vote will swing behind the Tories. Seems wrong-headed to me, but frankly who knows? You can make equally good arguments for them breaking Tory, breaking Labour or not bothering to turn up. I think the one thing nobody is expecting is a strong showing for RefUK.
    Turn out will be very very low I would have thought.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 19,861
    edited March 16
    Andy_JS said:

    Why are Labour being tipped to lose one of the most working-class seats in England? The big question of the day.

    Because it's also one of the Leaviest seats in England and Leave is now a stronger political identity than class - and is owned by the Tories.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,577

    If it’s a Tory gain, then I guess that’s the story of the night isn’t it? Starmer doesn’t even get to point at decent results vs the 2017 baseline overnight.

    Off topic - My wife has been working at a vaccine centre. Yesterday and into today there has been a massive uptick in refusals of AZ, especially amongst Asian communities.

    If the EU has screwed this up, then sod them. There have to be consequences. It makes me angry.

    Do you mind saying which part of the country your wife is working?

    My father is performing vaccines in South Yorkshire and is targeting Asian communities, he's not noticed any refusals, he's had a higher than normal questions about the vaccines in general but reassures them all so they take it.
    I’m sure he’s just as bashful and introverted as his son, but a massive well done to your father for joining in with the vaccine efforts. 👏
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    Age related data - scaled to 100K population per age group

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    UK vaccinations

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  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 7,798



    Andy_JS said:

    Why are Labour being tipped to lose one of the most working-class seats in England? The big question of the day.

    Because of the assumption that the BXP vote will swing behind the Tories. Seems wrong-headed to me, but frankly who knows? You can make equally good arguments for them breaking Tory, breaking Labour or not bothering to turn up. I think the one thing nobody is expecting is a strong showing for RefUK.
    Turn out will be very very low I would have thought.
    That's also my assumption. The BXP vote, and a decent chunk of the rest of it as well, doesn't bother and you end up with a similar proportional gap between Lab and Con, but perhaps with turnout of around 30%.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261
    Summary

    Everything down, apart from cases which are plateauing. This is because of a rise in reported cases in the 0-14 cohort

    image

    The vaccine effect is shown strongly in this graph as well - 65+ plummeting below everyone younger.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 3,345
    Re: Hartlepool, wouldn't it make sense for Labour to field a WOMAN for the by-election?

    Note that this is pretty standard in US, when an incumbent is forced to resign due to allegations of sexual misconduct, for his party to actively recruit and back a woman to replace him.

    That is precisely how US Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA) one of the Republicans in US House who voted to impeach Trumpsky (after his Putsch) got into public office in the first place.

    When a GOP state legislator (an evangelical firefighter no less) got caught up in a gay sex scandal, the party persuaded him to resign, then engineered the appointment of JHB to the vacancy. Her position was confirmed by voters at next election, then ran for Congress in 2010, won, and has been re-elected every two years since.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 19,861


    I'd be keen to know ....why now ?

    The timing of this by-election, at the likely peak of the vaccine bounce, is hardly helpful to Labour.

    Perhaps even actively hostile.

    Will Mike Hill be making further interventions ? Will they be inimical? He looks like a man with a grudge.

    It was Starmer ousting him.

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1371792395927425028

    Hill is facing allegations of unfair dismissal, sexual assault and harassment in an employment tribunal. He failed last year in an attempt to keep his name secret in the legal proceedings.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mp-mike-hill-resigns-to-trigger-red-wall-by-election-0zngz8mrv
    But, they remain allegations. Perhaps they will be proven, perhaps not.

    So, why now? As e.g., opposed to the autumn, which would have been easier for Labour.

    Perhaps the allegations are so incendiary that Labour felt that they had to throw him overboard asap ?

    But. my point is that a man who is chucked overboard is not usually full of the milk of human kindness towards those who did the chucking.
    There is a #misogyno mood afoot. Perhaps this played into Starmer's desire to chop him with no further delay?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,577
    edited March 16

    Summary

    Everything down, apart from cases which are plateauing. This is because of a rise in reported cases in the 0-14 cohort

    image

    The vaccine effect is shown strongly in this graph as well - 65+ plummeting below everyone younger.

    That’s the best graph at explaining what’s going on. A bunch of asymptomatic kids, and their parents, who would never normally have been tested, are being picked up by the schools testing everyone.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 1,240
    edited March 16

    Nigelb said:

    Looks like cases have plateaued on about 5k.

    Positive tests!!
    Positive tests are cases. It's how it's been defined for a year now.

    Symptoms have never been a factor.
    They have, as previously you were far less likely to be tested if asymptomatic.
    That's no longer the case with the widespread use of LFTs.
    Exactly, the government really needs to get in front of this and communicate it clearly, otherwise we’ll be hearing very soon from the Zerocovidians.
    I'm sure we'll be hearing from the more hysterical parts of the media/Twitter.

    However, any scientists on SAGE who are unable to understand that more testing -> more cases detected even if underlying cases remain the same will, I'm sure, be swiftly put right by their colleagues. These people are not idiots.

    There are also other sources of information - the ONS random sample (lagged a bit) and detected cases in people older than school age (these may also go up if people in contact with people with positive tests get tests). Another indicator over the next few weeks will be positivity rates in the routine LFTs - if there's a real problem of increasing infection then the positivity rates will go up, if not, they won't.

    In short, the trend line for case numbers will be higher than it would otherwise have been, but there will be multiple ways to get a handle on how real that is.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,261

    Nigelb said:

    Looks like cases have plateaued on about 5k.

    Positive tests!!
    Positive tests are cases. It's how it's been defined for a year now.

    Symptoms have never been a factor.
    They have, as previously you were far less likely to be tested if asymptomatic.
    That's no longer the case with the widespread use of LFTs.
    No they haven't. There's been routine asymptomatic testing in care homes, in hospitals, and via Test & Trace almost all along.

    An asymptomatic care or hospital staff member testing positive has been classed as a case not a test.
    No one is denying this, however the schools testing regime means that asymptomatic testing has skyrocketed since March 8. To the extent whereby the positive tests number is no longer comparable with that earlier in the winter.
    It just creates a new baseline - rather as the move to mass PCR testing did.

    Which is why this graph is rather useless

    image
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,020
    Sandpit said:

    Summary

    Everything down, apart from cases which are plateauing. This is because of a rise in reported cases in the 0-14 cohort

    image

    The vaccine effect is shown strongly in this graph as well - 65+ plummeting below everyone younger.

    That’s the best graph at explaining what’s going on. A bunch of asymptotic kids, who would never normally have been tested, are being picked up by the schools testing everyone.
    Yup. Exactly.

    Will soon be a problem unless the government can properly communicate this PDQ.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,695

    I think Lab should be firm favourite.

    The Brexit vote will be lifelong Labour voters who couldn't bring themselves to vote Tory even to Get Brexit Done.

    They should return to Labour if BXP isn't there. If they go Tory that should be major shocking news.

    All across the red wall the astonishing sight of the 2019 GE was watching solid Labour voters turning out to vote Tory in large numbers. I sampled both polling stations and then boxes from Labour areas and they were record turnout gone blue.

    It started off as Brexit. But its bigger than that. People aren't voting for Brexit cos it means Brexit. They're voting for it and then the Tories because they hope it means prosperity and pride, two things that have largely eroded away from places like Hartlepools.

    If you look at the council it is a Tory / Independent coalition with just 8 Labour councillors left. People turn out to vote for lunatics and crazies in an "independent" group rather than Labour. So at the very least expect the Labour vote and turnout to be down and once they get a taste of not voting for Labour they keep doing it.
    I think there is also an element of the trailblazer Tory voters, when they don't get struck by lightning or haunted by their appalled grandparents, give cover for others to then do the same. I can't see what else explains Mansfield, say.

    Labour majority 2005: 11,365 Tory vote 18.4%

    Tory majority 2017: 1,057. Tory vote 46.6%

    Tory majority 2019: 16,306. Tory vote 63.9%

    The only thing similar that I have ever seen is the way the LibDem vote used to do that. The Northern Red Wall Tories have discovered how to out LibDem the LibDems....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,058
    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/geoffuptonNZ/status/1371859159742824450
    https://images.bfmtv.com/6tPHn3FXpxdR-yvEWMJ6bNDzla0=/0x0:810x485/1160x0/images/Graphique-du-sondage-Elabe-pour-BFMTV-le-16-mars-2021-5-988288.jpg
    Fair play to the French authorities, they've managed to completely destroy the reputation in France of the cheapest, easiest to distribute, and potentially even the (based on UK real world data) best vaccine.

    Twats.

    Yet they want to sue the manufacturer for non delivery.

    Beyond insane.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,244
    edited March 16

    Nigelb said:

    Looks like cases have plateaued on about 5k.

    Positive tests!!
    Positive tests are cases. It's how it's been defined for a year now.

    Symptoms have never been a factor.
    They have, as previously you were far less likely to be tested if asymptomatic.
    That's no longer the case with the widespread use of LFTs.
    No they haven't. There's been routine asymptomatic testing in care homes, in hospitals, and via Test & Trace almost all along.

    An asymptomatic care or hospital staff member testing positive has been classed as a case not a test.
    We're talking at cross purposes.
    Symptoms are a factor, as previously you were far less likely to be tested if asymptomatic (Idid not say it didn't happen). At the moment, the entire secondary school cohort, along with the employees of tens of thousands of businesses, are being tested a couple of times a week.
    That will make a big difference to the numbers of positive tests.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,562
    kinabalu said:


    I'd be keen to know ....why now ?

    The timing of this by-election, at the likely peak of the vaccine bounce, is hardly helpful to Labour.

    Perhaps even actively hostile.

    Will Mike Hill be making further interventions ? Will they be inimical? He looks like a man with a grudge.

    It was Starmer ousting him.

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1371792395927425028

    Hill is facing allegations of unfair dismissal, sexual assault and harassment in an employment tribunal. He failed last year in an attempt to keep his name secret in the legal proceedings.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-mp-mike-hill-resigns-to-trigger-red-wall-by-election-0zngz8mrv
    But, they remain allegations. Perhaps they will be proven, perhaps not.

    So, why now? As e.g., opposed to the autumn, which would have been easier for Labour.

    Perhaps the allegations are so incendiary that Labour felt that they had to throw him overboard asap ?

    But. my point is that a man who is chucked overboard is not usually full of the milk of human kindness towards those who did the chucking.
    There is a #misogyno mood afoot. Perhaps this played into Starmer's desire to chop him with no further delay?
    It suggests that the allegations are very damaging if Labour would like to see him gone at what is hardly a very convenient time for them.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,560
    the stoppage may seed more doubt about the safety and efficacy of all coronavirus vaccines in the minds of an already skeptical public. “When you scare people, it’s hard to un-scare them,” he says. “I would argue that in the face of a pandemic, especially when [vaccination] is the only chance of being protected, the halts are not a conservative thing to do, but a radical thing to do.”

    https://time.com/5947134/astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-stopped/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_term=health_covid-19&linkId=113558838
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,695
    Chameleon said:

    https://twitter.com/geoffuptonNZ/status/1371859159742824450
    https://images.bfmtv.com/6tPHn3FXpxdR-yvEWMJ6bNDzla0=/0x0:810x485/1160x0/images/Graphique-du-sondage-Elabe-pour-BFMTV-le-16-mars-2021-5-988288.jpg
    Fair play to the French authorities, they've managed to completely destroy the reputation in France of the cheapest, easiest to distribute, and potentially even the (based on UK real world data) best vaccine.

    Twats.

    Condolences to those who will lose loved ones as a result.

    There risks coming a point at which truth outs, the voters see that very, very bad decisions were taken for (most likely) very, very bad reasons - and vote accordingly.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,086

    Just back from vaccination centre in Ealing where I had to queue for around half an hour to get the AZN jab. Not feeling as though I’m about to succumb to a blood clot so far ...

    Hopefully you don't end up stubbing your toe, bloody vaccines.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,426

    Nigelb said:

    Looks like cases have plateaued on about 5k.

    Positive tests!!
    Positive tests are cases. It's how it's been defined for a year now.

    Symptoms have never been a factor.
    They have, as previously you were far less likely to be tested if asymptomatic.
    That's no longer the case with the widespread use of LFTs.
    No they haven't. There's been routine asymptomatic testing in care homes, in hospitals, and via Test & Trace almost all along.

    An asymptomatic care or hospital staff member testing positive has been classed as a case not a test.
    No one is denying this, however the schools testing regime means that asymptomatic testing has skyrocketed since March 8. To the extent whereby the positive tests number is no longer comparable with that earlier in the winter.
    Of course. But it still remains cases either way. Its just a different way of testing, just as it was different in the autumn to last spring.

    The heatmap is a much more interesting thing to share that isn't getting enough attention.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,035
    The question I have is why after waiting so patiently for the EMA to approve things, they are now just completely ignoring them?
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