Overall I expect we'll see bumper investment in the next year or two, growth far faster than the OBR forecasts and I expect that Sunak will be well placed to do something in a year or two.
Hopefully bringing Corporation Tax back down can be done next Parliament.
I wonder if there's a cap on the super deduction. Could be very attractive for certain very large projects and ambitious projects.
I hope not. Defeats the point surely?
If the OBR upped investment by 10% of the back of it, it must be planned to have a pretty wide impact rather than just SMEs
I am really struggling to see how this can be compatible with his growth figures. Unless there are some major cuts in public spending in the later years that he forgot to mention (Sturgeon style).
The figures have the tax take increasing from 36.2% in 21-22 to 37.3%, then 38.4%, 39.0% and 39.1% in 25-26.
That can't all be fiscal drag and Corporation Tax. The timings don't work out for starters.
There are implied tax rises that they haven't decided on.
Sunak has followed the golden political rule with tax rises - don't take actual cash from anyone in person.
Freezing allowances doesn't reduce take home pay in actual cash.
And voters see CT as distant - it's paid by "companies" not "me" personally.
Look at everything he hasn't touched - not just IT, NI and VAT rates - but there's no change to £1m free IHT, no change to £20k per year into ISAs, no change to £12k free CGT. Plus the pensions triple lock stays.
It's very clever politically - there's nothing here which will shake anybody.
I remember that the 2012 and 2007 budgets were well received on the day.
Tbh, I don't think this will be received well. That headline CT rate is awful and will grab headlines across the world.
I think people will see it as a bit meh (free ports?) apart from the furlough extension, but as they were expecting grim stuff they'll feel that wasn't too bad. Loading the cost onto business profits (in the future) and creeping income tax (in the future, by freezing allowances) has a very low current political cost for most voters.
Nick, as I commented to Philip Thompson, I think the 5 year freeze in tax allowances including the bottom thresholds is going to be far more significant tax hike than painted in the budget, because there's every prospect that we will see a surge in inflation and with it wages just to try and keep up. The inflation projections from the OBR are at the moment low, so the impact is for now partly hidden. Smoke and mirrors.
Works both ways - if it plays out as you say, the deficit (and debt) will also be in a much better place and he'll have room to start raising thresholds again, or giving out the goodies in another form.
Sunak has followed the golden political rule with tax rises - don't take actual cash from anyone in person.
Freezing allowances doesn't reduce take home pay in actual cash.
And voters see CT as distant - it's paid by "companies" not "me" personally.
Look at everything he hasn't touched - not just IT, NI and VAT rates - but there's no change to £1m free IHT, no change to £20k per year into ISAs, no change to £12k free CGT. Plus the pensions triple lock stays.
It's very clever politically - there's nothing here which will shake anybody.
IHT is the other possible.
He said no change to % rate, or allowance. So no changes to the principal parts of IHT.
Sturgeon’s new technique is to denounce all the allegations as ‘mad conspiracy theories’. Then she asks, sarcastically, why she should have to debunk these absurdities
Tax incentives for big co’s to over declare losses now, when no one cares, and over declare profits next year which will feed into a narrative of new growth and confidence.
Some token efforts to say “we must pay back the debt”. When really, the covid bill has been paid for with monetisation of gilts, with any longer term impact to the deficit to be taken care of by growth.
The predictable pump to house prices.
Two eye catching initiatives. The super-deduction and free ports.
But really, what a missed opportunity.
Abolish NI and merge with Income Tax, everyone to get a “full pension” but with triple lock removed. Upfront annual payments by the state into ring fenced junior sipps to move the country to a new pensions order.
Use Brexit freedom to abolish the cumbersome, bureaucratic and anti enterprise tax of VAT, to be replaced with a retail only sales tax, with the rates devolved locally.
Major reform to housing tax (abolition of stamp duty entirely for primary residences) to improve liquidity and mobility.
I am really struggling to see how this can be compatible with his growth figures. Unless there are some major cuts in public spending in the later years that he forgot to mention (Sturgeon style).
The figures have the tax take increasing from 36.2% in 21-22 to 37.3%, then 38.4%, 39.0% and 39.1% in 25-26.
That can't all be fiscal drag and Corporation Tax. The timings don't work out for starters.
There are implied tax rises that they haven't decided on.
Didn't spell that out honestly though did he?
Maybe people returning from furlough paying tax is a factor?
Claiming the mantle of honesty and responsibility whilst ducking all the serious choices over how to balance the books is neither honest nor responsible.
Were you not listening?
He's forecast the deficit back under 3% before the next election.
I would have thought such a forecast was "brave". If the deficit is back under 3% before the next election then that is extraordinarily rapid so soon after the recession.
That’s precisely my point. This is a speech about serious disease offering very weak medicine.
How is that weak?
The deficit back under 3% within 3 years of the depression isn't weak its a comprehensive cure for the deficit. It wasn't possible 3 years after the GFC to get the deficit back under 3% again.
Which as I have said for the past year is made possible in no small part because we went into this recession in a much better place than Brown's recession.
Give it a rest. Even if you are right that fiscal policy should have been tighter in 2006/7, it made no difference to the global financial crisis. Whatever the implications for a future that did not happen, it had no effect on the crisis that did happen.
It didn't make a difference to the GFC, it made a difference to how the UK came out of the GFC. That's the difference, can't you understand that?
Shocks happen they're a fact of life. Its how you go into them and how you come out of them that matters. The UK was horribly exposed to the GFC with Brown's deficit - and as a result came atrociously out of it.
Covid was a more severe, more awful shock, but the UK was better prepared for it so is coming out better.
Osborne flat-lining the recovery he inherited from Labour did not help.
If only Labour hadnt fked the economy in the first place then we wouldnt have needed a recovery
There's a reason the global financial crisis was called the Global Financial Crisis.
It wasn't global, it was actually quite limited. Most countries didn't experience a financial crisis - UK, US, Iceland, Spain and Ireland did, and the first two, because they are so hugely important to the financial system, exported it around the world. But Germany, Canada, France, Italy, Sweden and Japan, for instance, didn't experience financial crises of their own - only what they imported from us.
The effects of the GFC, and the economic aftershocks, were truly global.
Really? I must have imagined the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
Nevertheless the observation that the 08 banking crash was mainly Anglo American in origin is substantially correct.
Sunak has followed the golden political rule with tax rises - don't take actual cash from anyone in person.
Freezing allowances doesn't reduce take home pay in actual cash.
And voters see CT as distant - it's paid by "companies" not "me" personally.
Look at everything he hasn't touched - not just IT, NI and VAT rates - but there's no change to £1m free IHT, no change to £20k per year into ISAs, no change to £12k free CGT. Plus the pensions triple lock stays.
It's very clever politically - there's nothing here which will shake anybody.
IHT is the other possible.
No - he's confirmed IHT allowances frozen to 2026.
I remember that the 2012 and 2007 budgets were well received on the day.
Tbh, I don't think this will be received well. That headline CT rate is awful and will grab headlines across the world.
I think people will see it as a bit meh (free ports?) apart from the furlough extension, but as they were expecting grim stuff they'll feel that wasn't too bad. Loading the cost onto business profits (in the future) and creeping income tax (in the future, by freezing allowances) has a very low current political cost for most voters.
Nick, as I commented to Philip Thompson, I think the 5 year freeze in tax allowances including the bottom thresholds is going to be far more significant tax hike than painted in the budget, because there's every prospect that we will see a surge in inflation and with it wages just to try and keep up. The inflation projections from the OBR are at the moment low, so the impact is for now partly hidden. Smoke and mirrors.
Yes, you may well be right, though only if inflation takes off - in which case it will have a depressive effect, as it no doubt the intention. Politically it may become unpopular, though.
Disappointed that the super-deduction only applies to plant and machinery. We don't have a whole heap of that over here in "cyber" where we are retraining all the ballet dancers.
I guess we are served by R&D tax credits; I didn't see any announcements related to a change in that regime?
Uhh.. Computers and other top-of-the-range latest technology?
We don't really buy those any more; we rent them by the transaction. It's like the 1960s shared computing services all over again.
We will of course treat ourselves to a stack of new laptops.
Disappointed that the super-deduction only applies to plant and machinery. We don't have a whole heap of that over here in "cyber" where we are retraining all the ballet dancers.
I guess we are served by R&D tax credits; I didn't see any announcements related to a change in that regime?
Uhh.. Computers and other top-of-the-range latest technology?
But that doesn't allow me to charge companies top whack for custom software development,.
Although on the other side setting up an umbrella company on the otherside of town seems like a good idea with the employer National Insurance contributions relief freeports have been offered.
'2.72 This year the government intends to announce some consultations separately from the Budget, and will publish a Command Paper, ‘Tax policies and consultations (Spring 2021)’ on 23 March 2021.'
This is where to look for the additional tax increases to come!
- IHT? - NI on self employed? - Pensions? - CGT? - Buy to let?
Tax incentives for big co’s to over declare losses now, when no one cares, and over declare profits next year which will feed into a narrative of new growth and confidence.
Some token efforts to say “we must pay back the debt”. When really, the covid bill has been paid for with monetisation of gilts, with any longer term impact to the deficit to be taken care of by growth.
The predictable pump to house prices.
Two eye catching initiatives. The super-deduction and free ports.
But really, what a missed opportunity.
Abolish NI and merge with Income Tax, everyone to get a “full pension” but with triple lock removed. Upfront annual payments by the state into ring fenced junior sipps to move the country to a new pensions order.
Use Brexit freedom to abolish the cumbersome, bureaucratic and anti enterprise tax of VAT, to be replaced with a retail only sales tax, with the rates devolved locally.
Major reform to housing tax (abolition of stamp duty entirely for primary residences) to improve liquidity and mobility.
There’s always next year I guess.
We’re still in the pandemic. Which could still worsen, again.
This is not a time for huge experiments. As you say: next year is better, if we are clearly through the plague
'2.72 This year the government intends to announce some consultations separately from the Budget, and will publish a Command Paper, ‘Tax policies and consultations (Spring 2021)’ on 23 March 2021.'
This is where to look for the additional tax increases to come!
- IHT? - NI on self employed? - Pensions? - CGT? - Buy to let?
??????
He's just frozen CGT allowance for 2 years?
But not rate....
Indeed - the review - if it happens - will look at aligning CGT rate with IT rate - just like Nigel in 1988!
Tax incentives for big co’s to over declare losses now, when no one cares, and over declare profits next year which will feed into a narrative of new growth and confidence.
Some token efforts to say “we must pay back the debt”. When really, the covid bill has been paid for with monetisation of gilts, with any longer term impact to the deficit to be taken care of by growth.
The predictable pump to house prices.
Two eye catching initiatives. The super-deduction and free ports.
But really, what a missed opportunity.
Abolish NI and merge with Income Tax, everyone to get a “full pension” but with triple lock removed. Upfront annual payments by the state into ring fenced junior sipps to move the country to a new pensions order.
Use Brexit freedom to abolish the cumbersome, bureaucratic and anti enterprise tax of VAT, to be replaced with a retail only sales tax, with the rates devolved locally.
Major reform to housing tax (abolition of stamp duty entirely for primary residences) to improve liquidity and mobility.
There’s always next year I guess.
We’re still in the pandemic. Which could still worsen, again.
This is not a time for huge experiments. As you say: next year is better, if we are clearly through the plague
I take the opposite view actually. Now is the time to be radical.
Good leadership application by Rishi. Lots of namechecks of MPs whose support he will want. One interesting policy - the temporary 130% capital allowances. That's a smart way of bringing forward investment, which makes very good sense in the current situation and conveniently fits into the electoral cycle. The announced raising of Corporation Tax to 25% is a very, very bad policy, which I hope will get reversed. The stealth increases in income tax and other taxes are reasonable in the circumstances. Freeports are a waste of time, but will give the Tories something concrete if ineffective to point to. Nothing on the elephant in the room - the disastrous increase in red tape which the government has imposed on business. Lots of dosh splurged on temporary support, which is fair enough. Overall 8/10 for politics, 4/10 for economics.
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
'2.72 This year the government intends to announce some consultations separately from the Budget, and will publish a Command Paper, ‘Tax policies and consultations (Spring 2021)’ on 23 March 2021.'
This is where to look for the additional tax increases to come!
- IHT? - NI on self employed? - Pensions? - CGT? - Buy to let?
So CT and fiscal drag were the only major tax increases when faced with the biggest fiscal hole in history? Larger businesses will howl, but that's quite smart politics. No personal tax rises, no capital gains raid, no new wealth taxes or other shit like that.
Good leadership application by Rishi. Lots of namechecks of MPs whose support he will want. One interesting policy - the temporary 130% capital allowances. That's a smart way of bringing forward investment, which makes very good sense in the current situation and conveniently fits into the electoral cycle. The announced raising of Corporation Tax to 25% is a very, very bad policy, which I hope will get reversed. The stealth increases in income tax and other taxes are reasonable in the circumstances. Freeports are a waste of time, but will give the Tories something concrete if ineffective to point to. Nothing on the elephant in the room - the disastrous increase in red tape which the government has imposed on business. Lots of dosh splurged on temporary support, which is fair enough. Overall 8/10 for politics, 4/10 for economics.
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
I think CT is still at the very bottom of the G20 in Europe, but not below.
Good leadership application by Rishi. Lots of namechecks of MPs whose support he will want. One interesting policy - the temporary 130% capital allowances. That's a smart way of bringing forward investment, which makes very good sense in the current situation and conveniently fits into the electoral cycle. The announced raising of Corporation Tax to 25% is a very, very bad policy, which I hope will get reversed. The stealth increases in income tax and other taxes are reasonable in the circumstances. Freeports are a waste of time, but will give the Tories something concrete if ineffective to point to. Nothing on the elephant in the room - the disastrous increase in red tape which the government has imposed on business. Lots of dosh splurged on temporary support, which is fair enough. Overall 8/10 for politics, 4/10 for economics.
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
Glad to hear someone else thinks freeports are a waste of time.
'2.72 This year the government intends to announce some consultations separately from the Budget, and will publish a Command Paper, ‘Tax policies and consultations (Spring 2021)’ on 23 March 2021.'
This is where to look for the additional tax increases to come!
- IHT? - NI on self employed? - Pensions? - CGT? - Buy to let?
??????
He's just frozen CGT allowance for 2 years?
But not rate....
Indeed - the review - if it happens - will look at aligning CGT rate with IT rate - just like Nigel in 1988!
Good leadership application by Rishi. Lots of namechecks of MPs whose support he will want. One interesting policy - the temporary 130% capital allowances. That's a smart way of bringing forward investment, which makes very good sense in the current situation and conveniently fits into the electoral cycle. The announced raising of Corporation Tax to 25% is a very, very bad policy, which I hope will get reversed. The stealth increases in income tax and other taxes are reasonable in the circumstances. Freeports are a waste of time, but will give the Tories something concrete if ineffective to point to. Nothing on the elephant in the room - the disastrous increase in red tape which the government has imposed on business. Lots of dosh splurged on temporary support, which is fair enough. Overall 8/10 for politics, 4/10 for economics.
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
Yes, the Double Whammy of Brexit red tape and corporation-tax hikes is the last thing the UK economy needs. However, there will probably be a U-turn. Boris will take Rishi to one side and tell him that we can't afford to f*ck business.
So CT and fiscal drag were the only major tax increases when faced with the biggest fiscal hole in history? Larger businesses will howl, but that's quite smart politics. No personal tax rises, no capital gains raid, no new wealth taxes or other shit like that.
You can expect those in November.
We'll see. If so, you can forget about any increases in the aid budget; we should probably cancel it for the duration.
Claiming the mantle of honesty and responsibility whilst ducking all the serious choices over how to balance the books is neither honest nor responsible.
Were you not listening?
He's forecast the deficit back under 3% before the next election.
I would have thought such a forecast was "brave". If the deficit is back under 3% before the next election then that is extraordinarily rapid so soon after the recession.
That’s precisely my point. This is a speech about serious disease offering very weak medicine.
How is that weak?
The deficit back under 3% within 3 years of the depression isn't weak its a comprehensive cure for the deficit. It wasn't possible 3 years after the GFC to get the deficit back under 3% again.
Which as I have said for the past year is made possible in no small part because we went into this recession in a much better place than Brown's recession.
Give it a rest. Even if you are right that fiscal policy should have been tighter in 2006/7, it made no difference to the global financial crisis. Whatever the implications for a future that did not happen, it had no effect on the crisis that did happen.
It didn't make a difference to the GFC, it made a difference to how the UK came out of the GFC. That's the difference, can't you understand that?
Shocks happen they're a fact of life. Its how you go into them and how you come out of them that matters. The UK was horribly exposed to the GFC with Brown's deficit - and as a result came atrociously out of it.
Covid was a more severe, more awful shock, but the UK was better prepared for it so is coming out better.
Osborne flat-lining the recovery he inherited from Labour did not help.
If only Labour hadnt fked the economy in the first place then we wouldnt have needed a recovery
There's a reason the global financial crisis was called the Global Financial Crisis.
It wasn't global, it was actually quite limited. Most countries didn't experience a financial crisis - UK, US, Iceland, Spain and Ireland did, and the first two, because they are so hugely important to the financial system, exported it around the world. But Germany, Canada, France, Italy, Sweden and Japan, for instance, didn't experience financial crises of their own - only what they imported from us.
The effects of the GFC, and the economic aftershocks, were truly global.
Really? I must have imagined the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
Nevertheless the observation that the 08 banking crash was mainly Anglo American in origin is substantially correct.
Sure, as is the observation that World War I was basically all Serbia's fault.
There were clearly major structural weaknesses in the Southern European economies which took an external shock to expose. In the same way as Northern Rock's overreliance on short term borrowing was, in hindsight, always unsustainable, and the precise origin of its downfall isn't all that relevant.
Well short of this time last week. Presumably more stockpiling for the second doses? One can only hope that the anticipated ramping of supplies isn't too slow in coming, or else the under 50s are going to be waiting for quite a long time.
'2.72 This year the government intends to announce some consultations separately from the Budget, and will publish a Command Paper, ‘Tax policies and consultations (Spring 2021)’ on 23 March 2021.'
This is where to look for the additional tax increases to come!
- IHT? - NI on self employed? - Pensions? - CGT? - Buy to let?
??????
He's just frozen CGT allowance for 2 years?
But not rate....
Indeed - the review - if it happens - will look at aligning CGT rate with IT rate - just like Nigel in 1988!
Are we due another budget in the autumn?
Absolutely no idea - the Budget scheduling seems to move around from year to year!
I think we are - then thereafter every autumn. This one was supposed to be in autumn 2020.
I remember that the 2012 and 2007 budgets were well received on the day.
Tbh, I don't think this will be received well. That headline CT rate is awful and will grab headlines across the world.
I think people will see it as a bit meh (free ports?) apart from the furlough extension, but as they were expecting grim stuff they'll feel that wasn't too bad. Loading the cost onto business profits (in the future) and creeping income tax (in the future, by freezing allowances) has a very low current political cost for most voters.
Nick, as I commented to Philip Thompson, I think the 5 year freeze in tax allowances including the bottom thresholds is going to be far more significant tax hike than painted in the budget, because there's every prospect that we will see a surge in inflation and with it wages just to try and keep up. The inflation projections from the OBR are at the moment low, so the impact is for now partly hidden. Smoke and mirrors.
Fiscal drag is absolutely a tax but it plays into the "sticky downwards" comment that I made to ping on Page at 12:58 about house prices. Its a tax rise, a very real tax rise, that doesn't feel like a tax rise.
In normal circumstances I'd hate that, but coming in years to come closing the deficit which has to be done in the medium term it is the least worst evil available.
Once the deficit is closed then new options become available again.
What you mean is that if it were a Labour government you'd hate it.
Good leadership application by Rishi. Lots of namechecks of MPs whose support he will want. One interesting policy - the temporary 130% capital allowances. That's a smart way of bringing forward investment, which makes very good sense in the current situation and conveniently fits into the electoral cycle. The announced raising of Corporation Tax to 25% is a very, very bad policy, which I hope will get reversed. The stealth increases in income tax and other taxes are reasonable in the circumstances.
If the economy goes well on the back of a recovery of demand, a boom of investment and profits booked earlier at the lower rate.....who knows?
Dividing lines. He wants to get the bad news out the way, set up GE2024 as fiscal responsibility election, with the promise of cake if the Tories (he?) is re-elected by GE2026.
Good soundbite budget, well delivered, on first thoughts whilst listening there seemed a lot done. However, after just an hours reflection it seems like a missed opportunity, didnt tackle any of the big problems that could only be done in a crisis early in a parliament (a rare combination, either on their own is not enough to get support and understanding for change) and yet to be convinced on the big schemes he did announce like freeports, apprenticeships and investment.
On a minor point, it was disgraceful we were only guaranteeing Thalidomide victims support for a limited number of years (why!?), so well done for moving it to a permanent ongoing scheme.
Good leadership application by Rishi. Lots of namechecks of MPs whose support he will want. One interesting policy - the temporary 130% capital allowances. That's a smart way of bringing forward investment, which makes very good sense in the current situation and conveniently fits into the electoral cycle. The announced raising of Corporation Tax to 25% is a very, very bad policy, which I hope will get reversed. The stealth increases in income tax and other taxes are reasonable in the circumstances. Freeports are a waste of time, but will give the Tories something concrete if ineffective to point to. Nothing on the elephant in the room - the disastrous increase in red tape which the government has imposed on business. Lots of dosh splurged on temporary support, which is fair enough. Overall 8/10 for politics, 4/10 for economics.
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
I think CT is still at the very bottom of the G20 in Europe, but not below.
It's not as simple as that, though. As well as the headline rate, you also need to look at the tax base and the allowances. Osborne did exactly the right thing, which was to reduce the rate but also simplify the tax and eliminate special allowances and other wheezes. A small increase in the headline rate would have been OK (say to 21% or so), but whacking it up to 25% is sufficiently high to start businesses looking elsewhere.
Well short of this time last week. Presumably more stockpiling for the second doses? One can only hope that the anticipated ramping of supplies isn't too slow in coming, or else the under 50s are going to be waiting for quite a long time.
Set alongside the apparently sudden order from India, it is concerning. We need those ‘bumper’ days and weeks
Sturgeon’s new technique is to denounce all the allegations as ‘mad conspiracy theories’. Then she asks, sarcastically, why she should have to debunk these absurdities
But then she doesn’t actually debunk them
However she is doing it quite well, at the moment
She may have acted badly but she is helped by OTT theories of conspiring to lock up a man she saw as a threat to her position and knew to be innocent.
Good leadership application by Rishi. Lots of namechecks of MPs whose support he will want. One interesting policy - the temporary 130% capital allowances. That's a smart way of bringing forward investment, which makes very good sense in the current situation and conveniently fits into the electoral cycle. The announced raising of Corporation Tax to 25% is a very, very bad policy, which I hope will get reversed. The stealth increases in income tax and other taxes are reasonable in the circumstances. Freeports are a waste of time, but will give the Tories something concrete if ineffective to point to. Nothing on the elephant in the room - the disastrous increase in red tape which the government has imposed on business. Lots of dosh splurged on temporary support, which is fair enough. Overall 8/10 for politics, 4/10 for economics.
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
I think CT is still at the very bottom of the G20 in Europe, but not below.
I remember that the 2012 and 2007 budgets were well received on the day.
Tbh, I don't think this will be received well. That headline CT rate is awful and will grab headlines across the world.
I think people will see it as a bit meh (free ports?) apart from the furlough extension, but as they were expecting grim stuff they'll feel that wasn't too bad. Loading the cost onto business profits (in the future) and creeping income tax (in the future, by freezing allowances) has a very low current political cost for most voters.
Nick, as I commented to Philip Thompson, I think the 5 year freeze in tax allowances including the bottom thresholds is going to be far more significant tax hike than painted in the budget, because there's every prospect that we will see a surge in inflation and with it wages just to try and keep up. The inflation projections from the OBR are at the moment low, so the impact is for now partly hidden. Smoke and mirrors.
Fiscal drag is absolutely a tax but it plays into the "sticky downwards" comment that I made to ping on Page at 12:58 about house prices. Its a tax rise, a very real tax rise, that doesn't feel like a tax rise.
In normal circumstances I'd hate that, but coming in years to come closing the deficit which has to be done in the medium term it is the least worst evil available.
Once the deficit is closed then new options become available again.
What you mean is that if it were a Labour government you'd hate it.
Brown used fiscal drag a lot, have you ever heard me complain about his having fiscal drag? Or have you heard me complain about the fact that he had a mammoth budget deficit during growth years that left us unprepared for the next shock?
I do believe in balanced budgets and have said that Sunak's Corporation Tax was "Stupid. Stupid. Stupid. 👎👎👎" - I'm not saying that about fiscal drag though.
Good leadership application by Rishi. Lots of namechecks of MPs whose support he will want. One interesting policy - the temporary 130% capital allowances. That's a smart way of bringing forward investment, which makes very good sense in the current situation and conveniently fits into the electoral cycle. The announced raising of Corporation Tax to 25% is a very, very bad policy, which I hope will get reversed. The stealth increases in income tax and other taxes are reasonable in the circumstances. Freeports are a waste of time, but will give the Tories something concrete if ineffective to point to. Nothing on the elephant in the room - the disastrous increase in red tape which the government has imposed on business. Lots of dosh splurged on temporary support, which is fair enough. Overall 8/10 for politics, 4/10 for economics.
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
I think CT is still at the very bottom of the G20 in Europe, but not below.
It's not as simple as that, though. As well as the headline rate, you also need to look at the tax base and the allowances. Osborne did exactly the right thing, which was to reduce the rate but also simplify the tax and eliminate special allowances and other wheezes. A small increase in the headline rate would have been OK (say to 21% or so), but whacking it up to 25% is sufficiently high to start businesses looking elsewhere.
Almost the entire raise seems to be spent on the investment allowance though which is interesting.
I'm not sure what I think about that to be honest.
Well short of this time last week. Presumably more stockpiling for the second doses? One can only hope that the anticipated ramping of supplies isn't too slow in coming, or else the under 50s are going to be waiting for quite a long time.
Francis and I have been flagging this for a while, only to be faced with patronising comments by posters who are old enough to know better. We really need to get cracking. That is not to say that we won't, but it's valid to be concerned.
I think Rishi's played his cards as best he could, although I'd prefer a more competitive corporation tax rate.
His job today was to show the bond markets he had a plan to get the UK back on a sustainable financial footing, thus giving macroeconomic confidence to invest, without killing the recovery with tax rises at the same time.
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
I can see why the Left are annoyed -- they were told SKS was a winner. He was not what they wanted, but he would win. They were sold a pup.
SKS looks as much a winner as Long Bailey with a heavy cold.
Labour should have gone for Rayner or Nandy.
It is not too late ....
SLAB have mucked it up as well, with another vacuous suit in charge.
A secondary objective was the political one (LTEP Part II redux) which this also does.
You can see the message now: stick with the Tories in GE2024 for jam by 2026/27. It delivers fiscal sanity without the austerity, and politically difficult headline tax rises.
Lots of assumptions on inflation, interest, domestic growth and global "events" could throw it off in the next 3 years but, for now, it's superb positioning.
I remember that the 2012 and 2007 budgets were well received on the day.
Tbh, I don't think this will be received well. That headline CT rate is awful and will grab headlines across the world.
I think people will see it as a bit meh (free ports?) apart from the furlough extension, but as they were expecting grim stuff they'll feel that wasn't too bad. Loading the cost onto business profits (in the future) and creeping income tax (in the future, by freezing allowances) has a very low current political cost for most voters.
Nick, as I commented to Philip Thompson, I think the 5 year freeze in tax allowances including the bottom thresholds is going to be far more significant tax hike than painted in the budget, because there's every prospect that we will see a surge in inflation and with it wages just to try and keep up. The inflation projections from the OBR are at the moment low, so the impact is for now partly hidden. Smoke and mirrors.
Fiscal drag is absolutely a tax but it plays into the "sticky downwards" comment that I made to ping on Page at 12:58 about house prices. Its a tax rise, a very real tax rise, that doesn't feel like a tax rise.
In normal circumstances I'd hate that, but coming in years to come closing the deficit which has to be done in the medium term it is the least worst evil available.
Once the deficit is closed then new options become available again.
What you mean is that if it were a Labour government you'd hate it.
Brown used fiscal drag a lot, have you ever heard me complain about his having fiscal drag? Or have you heard me complain about the fact that he had a mammoth budget deficit during growth years that left us unprepared for the next shock?
I do believe in balanced budgets and have said that Sunak's Corporation Tax was "Stupid. Stupid. Stupid. 👎👎👎" - I'm not saying that about fiscal drag though.
What we know is Fiscal Drag is highly effective politically acceptable way of collecting extra taxation, as very few people notice it, compared to if you announce increase in the % rate, that gets bad press and also loads of people running to their accountant to ask about how to restructure things to make sure they don't get hit. Even when I worked in a warehouse, the guys there were well aware of making sure at Christmas time to carefully calculate the overtime / bonuses to make sure they didn't go into top tax band and basically be working those extra hours for very little. While at the same time, were totally oblivious to fiscal drag.
It is also why I am surprised the government over the past 10+ years haven't gone the root of combining IC / NI. It both simplifies the whole system, cuts down on a load of dodgers that are possible for those not on PAYE, and doing so would also provide huge cover for increasing taxation on the top end.
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
I can see why the Left are annoyed -- they were told SKS was a winner. He was not what they wanted, but hw would win. They were sold a pup.
SKS looks as much a winner as Long Bailey with a heavy cold.
Labour should have gone for Rayner or Nandy.
It is not too late ....
SLAB have mucked it up as well, with another vacuous suit in charge.
To be fair, the Scottish vacuous suit is at least a big step up from his predecessor.
I remember that the 2012 and 2007 budgets were well received on the day.
Tbh, I don't think this will be received well. That headline CT rate is awful and will grab headlines across the world.
I think people will see it as a bit meh (free ports?) apart from the furlough extension, but as they were expecting grim stuff they'll feel that wasn't too bad. Loading the cost onto business profits (in the future) and creeping income tax (in the future, by freezing allowances) has a very low current political cost for most voters.
Nick, as I commented to Philip Thompson, I think the 5 year freeze in tax allowances including the bottom thresholds is going to be far more significant tax hike than painted in the budget, because there's every prospect that we will see a surge in inflation and with it wages just to try and keep up. The inflation projections from the OBR are at the moment low, so the impact is for now partly hidden. Smoke and mirrors.
Fiscal drag is absolutely a tax but it plays into the "sticky downwards" comment that I made to ping on Page at 12:58 about house prices. Its a tax rise, a very real tax rise, that doesn't feel like a tax rise.
In normal circumstances I'd hate that, but coming in years to come closing the deficit which has to be done in the medium term it is the least worst evil available.
Once the deficit is closed then new options become available again.
What you mean is that if it were a Labour government you'd hate it.
Brown used fiscal drag a lot, have you ever heard me complain about his having fiscal drag? Or have you heard me complain about the fact that he had a mammoth budget deficit during growth years that left us unprepared for the next shock?
I do believe in balanced budgets and have said that Sunak's Corporation Tax was "Stupid. Stupid. Stupid. 👎👎👎" - I'm not saying that about fiscal drag though.
What we know is Fiscal Drag is highly effective politically acceptable way of collecting extra taxation, as very few people notice it, compared to if you announce increase in the % rate.
It is also why I am surprised the government over the past 10+ years haven't gone the root of combining IC / NI. It both simplifies the whole system, cuts down on a load of dodgers that are possible for those not on PAYE, and doing so would also provide huge cover for increasing taxation on the top end.
Good leadership application by Rishi. Lots of namechecks of MPs whose support he will want. One interesting policy - the temporary 130% capital allowances. That's a smart way of bringing forward investment, which makes very good sense in the current situation and conveniently fits into the electoral cycle. The announced raising of Corporation Tax to 25% is a very, very bad policy, which I hope will get reversed. The stealth increases in income tax and other taxes are reasonable in the circumstances. Freeports are a waste of time, but will give the Tories something concrete if ineffective to point to. Nothing on the elephant in the room - the disastrous increase in red tape which the government has imposed on business. Lots of dosh splurged on temporary support, which is fair enough. Overall 8/10 for politics, 4/10 for economics.
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
I think CT is still at the very bottom of the G20 in Europe, but not below.
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
I can see why the Left are annoyed -- they were told SKS was a winner. He was not what they wanted, but hw would win. They were sold a pup.
SKS looks as much a winner as Long Bailey with a heavy cold.
Labour should have gone for Rayner or Nandy.
It is not too late ....
SLAB have mucked it up as well, with another vacuous suit in charge.
To be fair, the Scottish vacuous suit is at least a big step up from his predecessor.
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
I can see why the Left are annoyed -- they were told SKS was a winner. He was not what they wanted, but hw would win. They were sold a pup.
SKS looks as much a winner as Long Bailey with a heavy cold.
Labour should have gone for Rayner or Nandy.
It is not too late ....
SLAB have mucked it up as well, with another vacuous suit in charge.
To be fair, the Scottish vacuous suit is at least a big step up from his predecessor.
True.
But he is up against a more formidable opponent (even if she is wounded).
Good leadership application by Rishi. Lots of namechecks of MPs whose support he will want. One interesting policy - the temporary 130% capital allowances. That's a smart way of bringing forward investment, which makes very good sense in the current situation and conveniently fits into the electoral cycle. The announced raising of Corporation Tax to 25% is a very, very bad policy, which I hope will get reversed. The stealth increases in income tax and other taxes are reasonable in the circumstances. Freeports are a waste of time, but will give the Tories something concrete if ineffective to point to. Nothing on the elephant in the room - the disastrous increase in red tape which the government has imposed on business. Lots of dosh splurged on temporary support, which is fair enough. Overall 8/10 for politics, 4/10 for economics.
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
I think CT is still at the very bottom of the G20 in Europe, but not below.
I remember that the 2012 and 2007 budgets were well received on the day.
Tbh, I don't think this will be received well. That headline CT rate is awful and will grab headlines across the world.
I think people will see it as a bit meh (free ports?) apart from the furlough extension, but as they were expecting grim stuff they'll feel that wasn't too bad. Loading the cost onto business profits (in the future) and creeping income tax (in the future, by freezing allowances) has a very low current political cost for most voters.
Nick, as I commented to Philip Thompson, I think the 5 year freeze in tax allowances including the bottom thresholds is going to be far more significant tax hike than painted in the budget, because there's every prospect that we will see a surge in inflation and with it wages just to try and keep up. The inflation projections from the OBR are at the moment low, so the impact is for now partly hidden. Smoke and mirrors.
Fiscal drag is absolutely a tax but it plays into the "sticky downwards" comment that I made to ping on Page at 12:58 about house prices. Its a tax rise, a very real tax rise, that doesn't feel like a tax rise.
In normal circumstances I'd hate that, but coming in years to come closing the deficit which has to be done in the medium term it is the least worst evil available.
Once the deficit is closed then new options become available again.
What you mean is that if it were a Labour government you'd hate it.
Brown used fiscal drag a lot, have you ever heard me complain about his having fiscal drag? Or have you heard me complain about the fact that he had a mammoth budget deficit during growth years that left us unprepared for the next shock?
I do believe in balanced budgets and have said that Sunak's Corporation Tax was "Stupid. Stupid. Stupid. 👎👎👎" - I'm not saying that about fiscal drag though.
What we know is Fiscal Drag is highly effective politically acceptable way of collecting extra taxation, as very few people notice it, compared to if you announce increase in the % rate.
It is also why I am surprised the government over the past 10+ years haven't gone the root of combining IC / NI. It both simplifies the whole system, cuts down on a load of dodgers that are possible for those not on PAYE, and doing so would also provide huge cover for increasing taxation on the top end.
Because pensioners are a core vote.
It isn't hard to make an exemption / different IC rate / "tax credit" for pensioners. They are an easy identifiable group (also whisper it quietly, it would be a way of grabbing a bit of extra cash from the very wealthy end of the pensioners, while not breaking you triple lock stuff and universality of some pensioner benefits).
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
I can see why the Left are annoyed -- they were told SKS was a winner. He was not what they wanted, but hw would win. They were sold a pup.
SKS looks as much a winner as Long Bailey with a heavy cold.
Labour should have gone for Rayner or Nandy.
It is not too late ....
SLAB have mucked it up as well, with another vacuous suit in charge.
To be fair, the Scottish vacuous suit is at least a big step up from his predecessor.
Starmer isn't?
Yes he is, but it's looking increasingly as though there won't be much electoral benefit for Labour from that.
Good leadership application by Rishi. Lots of namechecks of MPs whose support he will want. One interesting policy - the temporary 130% capital allowances. That's a smart way of bringing forward investment, which makes very good sense in the current situation and conveniently fits into the electoral cycle. The announced raising of Corporation Tax to 25% is a very, very bad policy, which I hope will get reversed. The stealth increases in income tax and other taxes are reasonable in the circumstances. Freeports are a waste of time, but will give the Tories something concrete if ineffective to point to. Nothing on the elephant in the room - the disastrous increase in red tape which the government has imposed on business. Lots of dosh splurged on temporary support, which is fair enough. Overall 8/10 for politics, 4/10 for economics.
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
I think CT is still at the very bottom of the G20 in Europe, but not below.
It's not as simple as that, though. As well as the headline rate, you also need to look at the tax base and the allowances. Osborne did exactly the right thing, which was to reduce the rate but also simplify the tax and eliminate special allowances and other wheezes. A small increase in the headline rate would have been OK (say to 21% or so), but whacking it up to 25% is sufficiently high to start businesses looking elsewhere.
I remember that the 2012 and 2007 budgets were well received on the day.
Tbh, I don't think this will be received well. That headline CT rate is awful and will grab headlines across the world.
I think people will see it as a bit meh (free ports?) apart from the furlough extension, but as they were expecting grim stuff they'll feel that wasn't too bad. Loading the cost onto business profits (in the future) and creeping income tax (in the future, by freezing allowances) has a very low current political cost for most voters.
Nick, as I commented to Philip Thompson, I think the 5 year freeze in tax allowances including the bottom thresholds is going to be far more significant tax hike than painted in the budget, because there's every prospect that we will see a surge in inflation and with it wages just to try and keep up. The inflation projections from the OBR are at the moment low, so the impact is for now partly hidden. Smoke and mirrors.
Fiscal drag is absolutely a tax but it plays into the "sticky downwards" comment that I made to ping on Page at 12:58 about house prices. Its a tax rise, a very real tax rise, that doesn't feel like a tax rise.
In normal circumstances I'd hate that, but coming in years to come closing the deficit which has to be done in the medium term it is the least worst evil available.
Once the deficit is closed then new options become available again.
I don't disagree with you on that. However, the 64k dollar question is: can plans to scale back excessive deficits be realised without trashing the economy, personal finances and public services?
Also, it's easy for chancellors to come up with notional projections that purport to bring annual budget deficits back down to a reasonable level in the dim and distant future 5 or so years down the line. They always do. Alistair Darling managed that even in 2009 and 2010. The difficult part is to make progress towards those projections on schedule rather than constantly have to revise those deficit projections upwards. George Osborne never mastered the trick, every budget of his pushed back further the point at which it was due to happen, after he set back the nascent recovery that was underway in early 2010, while failing the 64k dollar question above.
In a normal year it's best to judge the fiscal projections in a budget based on how the forecasts for each year compare with the forecasts previously made for the same years. This year is not a normal year, mind, so it's difficult to judge anything.
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
I can see why the Left are annoyed -- they were told SKS was a winner. He was not what they wanted, but hw would win. They were sold a pup.
SKS looks as much a winner as Long Bailey with a heavy cold.
Labour should have gone for Rayner or Nandy.
It is not too late ....
SLAB have mucked it up as well, with another vacuous suit in charge.
To be fair, the Scottish vacuous suit is at least a big step up from his predecessor.
Claiming the mantle of honesty and responsibility whilst ducking all the serious choices over how to balance the books is neither honest nor responsible.
Were you not listening?
He's forecast the deficit back under 3% before the next election.
I would have thought such a forecast was "brave". If the deficit is back under 3% before the next election then that is extraordinarily rapid so soon after the recession.
That’s precisely my point. This is a speech about serious disease offering very weak medicine.
How is that weak?
The deficit back under 3% within 3 years of the depression isn't weak its a comprehensive cure for the deficit. It wasn't possible 3 years after the GFC to get the deficit back under 3% again.
Which as I have said for the past year is made possible in no small part because we went into this recession in a much better place than Brown's recession.
Give it a rest. Even if you are right that fiscal policy should have been tighter in 2006/7, it made no difference to the global financial crisis. Whatever the implications for a future that did not happen, it had no effect on the crisis that did happen.
It didn't make a difference to the GFC, it made a difference to how the UK came out of the GFC. That's the difference, can't you understand that?
Shocks happen they're a fact of life. Its how you go into them and how you come out of them that matters. The UK was horribly exposed to the GFC with Brown's deficit - and as a result came atrociously out of it.
Covid was a more severe, more awful shock, but the UK was better prepared for it so is coming out better.
Osborne flat-lining the recovery he inherited from Labour did not help.
If only Labour hadnt fked the economy in the first place then we wouldnt have needed a recovery
There's a reason the global financial crisis was called the Global Financial Crisis.
It wasn't global, it was actually quite limited. Most countries didn't experience a financial crisis - UK, US, Iceland, Spain and Ireland did, and the first two, because they are so hugely important to the financial system, exported it around the world. But Germany, Canada, France, Italy, Sweden and Japan, for instance, didn't experience financial crises of their own - only what they imported from us.
The effects of the GFC, and the economic aftershocks, were truly global.
Really? I must have imagined the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
Nevertheless the observation that the 08 banking crash was mainly Anglo American in origin is substantially correct.
Sure, as is the observation that World War I was basically all Serbia's fault.
There were clearly major structural weaknesses in the Southern European economies which took an external shock to expose. In the same way as Northern Rock's overreliance on short term borrowing was, in hindsight, always unsustainable, and the precise origin of its downfall isn't all that relevant.
The bank crash and consequent credit crunch was rather more than a mere trigger for other events. A financial bubble was created by malfunctioning credit markets - securitized loans and a mountain of derivatives on top, such that every bad dollar of loan become several bad dollars of potential loss. An abdication of risk management, much fraud, and at the heart of it, Wall St and its mini me, the City. Large and complex exposures were cooked up there and exported to balance sheets across the developed banking world.
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
I can see why the Left are annoyed -- they were told SKS was a winner. He was not what they wanted, but hw would win. They were sold a pup.
SKS looks as much a winner as Long Bailey with a heavy cold.
Labour should have gone for Rayner or Nandy.
It is not too late ....
SLAB have mucked it up as well, with another vacuous suit in charge.
To be fair, the Scottish vacuous suit is at least a big step up from his predecessor.
Starmer isn't?
Yes he is, but it's looking increasingly as though there won't be much electoral benefit for Labour from that.
I really think Labour need a cross of Corbynite passion and Blairite politics, and that means Jess Phillips. Sir Keir is just too dull - he is Brown, Miliband, IDS, Howard, Hague. A year in and he hasn't captured the public's imagination at all- low 30s in Positive Leader Ratings is EdM territory. I think that means he never will
Good leadership application by Rishi. Lots of namechecks of MPs whose support he will want. One interesting policy - the temporary 130% capital allowances. That's a smart way of bringing forward investment, which makes very good sense in the current situation and conveniently fits into the electoral cycle. The announced raising of Corporation Tax to 25% is a very, very bad policy, which I hope will get reversed. The stealth increases in income tax and other taxes are reasonable in the circumstances. Freeports are a waste of time, but will give the Tories something concrete if ineffective to point to. Nothing on the elephant in the room - the disastrous increase in red tape which the government has imposed on business. Lots of dosh splurged on temporary support, which is fair enough. Overall 8/10 for politics, 4/10 for economics.
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
I think CT is still at the very bottom of the G20 in Europe, but not below.
The crucial fact there - and what is staggeringly impressive - is that all vaccines are used within a week of being received. The EU could learn a lot from that.
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
I can see why the Left are annoyed -- they were told SKS was a winner. He was not what they wanted, but hw would win. They were sold a pup.
SKS looks as much a winner as Long Bailey with a heavy cold.
Labour should have gone for Rayner or Nandy.
It is not too late ....
SLAB have mucked it up as well, with another vacuous suit in charge.
To be fair, the Scottish vacuous suit is at least a big step up from his predecessor.
Quite. And as there were only two candidates, I think they chose OK.
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
I can see why the Left are annoyed -- they were told SKS was a winner. He was not what they wanted, but hw would win. They were sold a pup.
SKS looks as much a winner as Long Bailey with a heavy cold.
Labour should have gone for Rayner or Nandy.
It is not too late ....
SLAB have mucked it up as well, with another vacuous suit in charge.
To be fair, the Scottish vacuous suit is at least a big step up from his predecessor.
Starmer isn't?
Yes he is, but it's looking increasingly as though there won't be much electoral benefit for Labour from that.
I really think Labour need a cross of Corbynite passion and Blairite politics, and that means Jess Phillips. Sir Keir is just too dull - he is Brown, Miliband, IDS, Howard, Hague. A year in and he hasn't captured the public's imagination at all- low 30s in Positive Leader Ratings is EdM territory. I think that means he never will
Covid means past comparisons is a bit unfair but I really do think that Jess was (and still is) the best option to go up against Boris.
Comments
That can't all be fiscal drag and Corporation Tax. The timings don't work out for starters.
There are implied tax rises that they haven't decided on.
Didn't spell that out honestly though did he?
But then she doesn’t actually debunk them
However she is doing it quite well, at the moment
Some token efforts to say “we must pay back the debt”. When really, the covid bill has been paid for with monetisation of gilts, with any longer term impact to the deficit to be taken care of by growth.
The predictable pump to house prices.
Two eye catching initiatives. The super-deduction and free ports.
But really, what a missed opportunity.
Abolish NI and merge with Income Tax, everyone to get a “full pension” but with triple lock removed. Upfront annual payments by the state into ring fenced junior sipps to move the country to a new pensions order.
Use Brexit freedom to abolish the cumbersome, bureaucratic and anti enterprise tax of VAT, to be replaced with a retail only sales tax, with the rates devolved locally.
Major reform to housing tax (abolition of stamp duty entirely for primary residences) to improve liquidity and mobility.
There’s always next year I guess.
EDIT: Already answered above.
https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats/status/1367114807216926720
I bet its not as well illustrated as Tristram Hunt's one on Victorian cities.
https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1367115976660156416?s=20
We will of course treat ourselves to a stack of new laptops.
Although on the other side setting up an umbrella company on the otherside of town seems like a good idea with the employer National Insurance contributions relief freeports have been offered.
But not rate....
This is not a time for huge experiments. As you say: next year is better, if we are clearly through the plague
And, lordy, lordy - I didn't hear the whole of it, but if the bit of Sir Keir's response which I did hear was typical, boy is he useless. It was cringe-makingly bad. I had to turn it off.
Those half framed glasses, and slicked-back but greying coiffure. I'm sure there's a dead-ringer in a classic 60s film.
Rate not mentioned.
https://twitter.com/QuinnyPig/status/1367117809541595136
https://twitter.com/BenHouchen/status/1367104633982828546?s=20
There were clearly major structural weaknesses in the Southern European economies which took an external shock to expose. In the same way as Northern Rock's overreliance on short term borrowing was, in hindsight, always unsustainable, and the precise origin of its downfall isn't all that relevant.
I think we are - then thereafter every autumn. This one was supposed to be in autumn 2020.
Clever.
On a minor point, it was disgraceful we were only guaranteeing Thalidomide victims support for a limited number of years (why!?), so well done for moving it to a permanent ongoing scheme.
https://twitter.com/frankfieldteam/status/1367108733067816963?s=21
https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/corporate-tax-rate?continent=g20
Or have you heard me complain about the fact that he had a mammoth budget deficit during growth years that left us unprepared for the next shock?
I do believe in balanced budgets and have said that Sunak's Corporation Tax was "Stupid. Stupid. Stupid. 👎👎👎" - I'm not saying that about fiscal drag though.
I'm not sure what I think about that to be honest.
His job today was to show the bond markets he had a plan to get the UK back on a sustainable financial footing, thus giving macroeconomic confidence to invest, without killing the recovery with tax rises at the same time.
I think he's done it.
SKS looks as much a winner as Long Bailey with a heavy cold.
Labour should have gone for Rayner or Nandy.
It is not too late ....
SLAB have mucked it up as well, with another vacuous suit in charge.
You can see the message now: stick with the Tories in GE2024 for jam by 2026/27. It delivers fiscal sanity without the austerity, and politically difficult headline tax rises.
Lots of assumptions on inflation, interest, domestic growth and global "events" could throw it off in the next 3 years but, for now, it's superb positioning.
It is also why I am surprised the government over the past 10+ years haven't gone the root of combining IC / NI. It both simplifies the whole system, cuts down on a load of dodgers that are possible for those not on PAYE, and doing so would also provide huge cover for increasing taxation on the top end.
Amongst our competitors I was looking at Switz and Italy. I don't think the US figure is quite right, and the others are not really local competitors.
I think our economic trump card this year is that we will be able to open up 2-3 months before the rest of Europe.
Joker or Ace? No idea.
But he is up against a more formidable opponent (even if she is wounded).
I don't want some anodyne key points with lots of talking heads. I want context, and analysis, and a spotlight shone on the important detail.
‘Sorry, the files are too heavy to carry to Holyrood’
Also, it's easy for chancellors to come up with notional projections that purport to bring annual budget deficits back down to a reasonable level in the dim and distant future 5 or so years down the line. They always do. Alistair Darling managed that even in 2009 and 2010. The difficult part is to make progress towards those projections on schedule rather than constantly have to revise those deficit projections upwards. George Osborne never mastered the trick, every budget of his pushed back further the point at which it was due to happen, after he set back the nascent recovery that was underway in early 2010, while failing the 64k dollar question above.
In a normal year it's best to judge the fiscal projections in a budget based on how the forecasts for each year compare with the forecasts previously made for the same years. This year is not a normal year, mind, so it's difficult to judge anything.
Second doses 48822