Claiming the mantle of honesty and responsibility whilst ducking all the serious choices over how to balance the books is neither honest nor responsible.
Were you not listening?
He's forecast the deficit back under 3% before the next election.
I would have thought such a forecast was "brave". If the deficit is back under 3% before the next election then that is extraordinarily rapid so soon after the recession.
That’s precisely my point. This is a speech about serious disease offering very weak medicine.
How is that weak?
The deficit back under 3% within 3 years of the depression isn't weak its a comprehensive cure for the deficit. It wasn't possible 3 years after the GFC to get the deficit back under 3% again.
Which as I have said for the past year is made possible in no small part because we went into this recession in a much better place than Brown's recession.
Give it a rest. Even if you are right that fiscal policy should have been tighter in 2006/7, it made no difference to the global financial crisis. Whatever the implications for a future that did not happen, it had no effect on the crisis that did happen.
It didn't make a difference to the GFC, it made a difference to how the UK came out of the GFC. That's the difference, can't you understand that?
Shocks happen they're a fact of life. Its how you go into them and how you come out of them that matters. The UK was horribly exposed to the GFC with Brown's deficit - and as a result came atrociously out of it.
Covid was a more severe, more awful shock, but the UK was better prepared for it so is coming out better.
Osborne flat-lining the recovery he inherited from Labour did not help.
If only Labour hadnt fked the economy in the first place then we wouldnt have needed a recovery
There's a reason the global financial crisis was called the Global Financial Crisis.
So CT and fiscal drag were the only major tax increases when faced with the biggest fiscal hole in history? Larger businesses will howl, but that's quite smart politics. No personal tax rises, no capital gains raid, no wealth taxes or other shit like that.
Larger businesses are the backbone of the economy. Pushing them towards the exit door is stupid. Other countries will take note and lower their own tax rates to feast on the carcass of the UK economy.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not delighted about it and it'll affect me too to some extent. But I'd be lying if I said I didn't prefer this to the utter rinsing of individuals that I was afraid was coming.
So CT and fiscal drag were the only major tax increases when faced with the biggest fiscal hole in history? Larger businesses will howl, but that's quite smart politics. No personal tax rises, no capital gains raid, no wealth taxes or other shit like that.
Larger businesses are the backbone of the economy. Pushing them towards the exit door is stupid. Other countries will take note and lower their own tax rates to feast on the carcass of the UK economy.
I don't think anyone in Europe will be doing that. Or the US.
So my taxes are going up via fiscal drag to pay doleies more, as is corporation tax.
Corbyn really did win the argument in the 2019 election.
The country is full of old, ill and poor people. They need to be looked after in a vaguely responsible way, which means rich people and their assets have to be soaked. You can argue, as I do, that the Government is being pushed by electoral imperatives towards going about some of this in the wrong way, but the basic principle holds.
If we don't attempt any form of redistribution to support the relatively weak then more and more people are just going to become poor, until we either have to get rid of democracy or accept the election of a Corbyn figure.
For the last decade and a bit my taxes have gone up a lot, I used to pay 40% then it went to 50% now it is 45%, rich people have been soaked for the last the decade and then some, I mean I don't mind paying those taxes, I'm at heart a One Nation Tory, but I'm tired of the narrative the rich don't pay their taxes.
You just cant count.
If the bulk of the population has no salary rises and the top 10% have had buckets of them then proportionately the rich are going to pay more taxes as they have and ever increasing portion of the pie plus the minor point they can afford it.
Pay the bulk of the work force more and your tax bill goes down. Next youll be telling me director pay impacts company performance.
Got to hand it to Rishi - he's bloody good at pulling political rabbits out of his hat.
That investment allowance looks absolutely amazing on paper. It needs to be made permanent at 100%.
It goes hand in hand with the rise in Corporation Tax. Big companies have been hoarding cash. This incentivises them to invest it. A Good Thing.
Yes. Don't want to pay 25%? Invest any surplus in the business instead. Not a terrible idea.
But the super deduction ends when that rate starts, it should be lowered to 100% and made permanent. We've needed this kind of approach to business investment for decades.
No - because it encourages over investment.
It's best to have lower rates with fewer deductions.
Got to hand it to Rishi - he's bloody good at pulling political rabbits out of his hat.
That investment allowance looks absolutely amazing on paper. It needs to be made permanent at 100%.
It goes hand in hand with the rise in Corporation Tax. Big companies have been hoarding cash. This incentivises them to invest it. A Good Thing.
Yes. Don't want to pay 25%? Invest any surplus in the business instead. Not a terrible idea.
But the super deduction ends when that rate starts, it should be lowered to 100% and made permanent. We've needed this kind of approach to business investment for decades.
Something for him to announce in 2 years time hopefully.
Claiming the mantle of honesty and responsibility whilst ducking all the serious choices over how to balance the books is neither honest nor responsible.
Were you not listening?
He's forecast the deficit back under 3% before the next election.
I would have thought such a forecast was "brave". If the deficit is back under 3% before the next election then that is extraordinarily rapid so soon after the recession.
That’s precisely my point. This is a speech about serious disease offering very weak medicine.
How is that weak?
The deficit back under 3% within 3 years of the depression isn't weak its a comprehensive cure for the deficit. It wasn't possible 3 years after the GFC to get the deficit back under 3% again.
Which as I have said for the past year is made possible in no small part because we went into this recession in a much better place than Brown's recession.
Give it a rest. Even if you are right that fiscal policy should have been tighter in 2006/7, it made no difference to the global financial crisis. Whatever the implications for a future that did not happen, it had no effect on the crisis that did happen.
It didn't make a difference to the GFC, it made a difference to how the UK came out of the GFC. That's the difference, can't you understand that?
Shocks happen they're a fact of life. Its how you go into them and how you come out of them that matters. The UK was horribly exposed to the GFC with Brown's deficit - and as a result came atrociously out of it.
Covid was a more severe, more awful shock, but the UK was better prepared for it so is coming out better.
Osborne flat-lining the recovery he inherited from Labour did not help.
If only Labour hadnt fked the economy in the first place then we wouldnt have needed a recovery
There's a reason the global financial crisis was called the Global Financial Crisis.
A Labour leader, A LABOUR LEADER!, criticising the government for wanting to OPEN a coal mine?
I'm glad someone else is amused by this. Nothing more exemplifies the shift in Labour from a party of the working classes to one of middle class student types than this. And explains why they currently have no chance of recovering their seats in the North.
16,000 cases in Czechia, a tiny country. Poland surging. Russia 452 deaths
Eastern Europe is having a bad 3rd wave
The photo of the party on the bridge in Prague to welcome the eradication of covid will be iconic for all the wrong reasons.
Every western country that has gloated about its covid handling has gone on to regret it. Germany, Ireland, Sweden, Trump’s America, Czechia, the UK (tho we soon admitted it was a calamity)
The only exceptions are Oz/NZ. Maybe they too will one day succumb to this iron law
Got to hand it to Rishi - he's bloody good at pulling political rabbits out of his hat.
That investment allowance looks absolutely amazing on paper. It needs to be made permanent at 100%.
It goes hand in hand with the rise in Corporation Tax. Big companies have been hoarding cash. This incentivises them to invest it. A Good Thing.
Yes. Don't want to pay 25%? Invest any surplus in the business instead. Not a terrible idea.
But the super deduction ends when that rate starts, it should be lowered to 100% and made permanent. We've needed this kind of approach to business investment for decades.
Ah, OK, didn't spot that. Agree that it should be permanent.
Claiming the mantle of honesty and responsibility whilst ducking all the serious choices over how to balance the books is neither honest nor responsible.
Were you not listening?
He's forecast the deficit back under 3% before the next election.
I would have thought such a forecast was "brave". If the deficit is back under 3% before the next election then that is extraordinarily rapid so soon after the recession.
That’s precisely my point. This is a speech about serious disease offering very weak medicine.
How is that weak?
The deficit back under 3% within 3 years of the depression isn't weak its a comprehensive cure for the deficit. It wasn't possible 3 years after the GFC to get the deficit back under 3% again.
Which as I have said for the past year is made possible in no small part because we went into this recession in a much better place than Brown's recession.
Give it a rest. Even if you are right that fiscal policy should have been tighter in 2006/7, it made no difference to the global financial crisis. Whatever the implications for a future that did not happen, it had no effect on the crisis that did happen.
It didn't make a difference to the GFC, it made a difference to how the UK came out of the GFC. That's the difference, can't you understand that?
Shocks happen they're a fact of life. Its how you go into them and how you come out of them that matters. The UK was horribly exposed to the GFC with Brown's deficit - and as a result came atrociously out of it.
Covid was a more severe, more awful shock, but the UK was better prepared for it so is coming out better.
No, Brown's deficit had nothing to do with the UK's level of exposure to the GFC. We borrowed the money to keep the economy going throughout at very low interest rates.
What mattered was his astonishingly incomptent approach to financial regulation.
I think you misunderstood my point. What I was saying is that Brown's deficit going into the recession being very high meant that coming out of it we were ruined.
Had the deficit been under control going into the recession then when we came out of it we'd have had a deficit but not too bad a one.
How were we ruined? We have continued to be able to finance our deficits and debt ever since.
Only because we had a decade of "austerity". That was only needed because of Brown's disgraceful deficit. Won't be needed going forwards because we went into this recession in better shape and the deficit will be closed without austerity.
No because countries have run much higher deficits and debts for much longer (e.g. Japan) have managed to finance them as well.
Austerity was unnecessary and counter-productive - a classic example of the paradox of thrift.
Claiming the mantle of honesty and responsibility whilst ducking all the serious choices over how to balance the books is neither honest nor responsible.
Were you not listening?
He's forecast the deficit back under 3% before the next election.
I would have thought such a forecast was "brave". If the deficit is back under 3% before the next election then that is extraordinarily rapid so soon after the recession.
That’s precisely my point. This is a speech about serious disease offering very weak medicine.
How is that weak?
The deficit back under 3% within 3 years of the depression isn't weak its a comprehensive cure for the deficit. It wasn't possible 3 years after the GFC to get the deficit back under 3% again.
Which as I have said for the past year is made possible in no small part because we went into this recession in a much better place than Brown's recession.
Give it a rest. Even if you are right that fiscal policy should have been tighter in 2006/7, it made no difference to the global financial crisis. Whatever the implications for a future that did not happen, it had no effect on the crisis that did happen.
It didn't make a difference to the GFC, it made a difference to how the UK came out of the GFC. That's the difference, can't you understand that?
Shocks happen they're a fact of life. Its how you go into them and how you come out of them that matters. The UK was horribly exposed to the GFC with Brown's deficit - and as a result came atrociously out of it.
Covid was a more severe, more awful shock, but the UK was better prepared for it so is coming out better.
Osborne flat-lining the recovery he inherited from Labour did not help.
That did not happen. The UK grew faster 2010-2019 than the Eurozone or any other major European economy.
Austerity did not work in Europe either. You might even make a case that Osborne's austerity might have worked if it were not for German-led European austerity, insofar as an expanding Europe might have imported British goods that faced a slowing home market.
Claiming the mantle of honesty and responsibility whilst ducking all the serious choices over how to balance the books is neither honest nor responsible.
Were you not listening?
He's forecast the deficit back under 3% before the next election.
I would have thought such a forecast was "brave". If the deficit is back under 3% before the next election then that is extraordinarily rapid so soon after the recession.
That’s precisely my point. This is a speech about serious disease offering very weak medicine.
How is that weak?
The deficit back under 3% within 3 years of the depression isn't weak its a comprehensive cure for the deficit. It wasn't possible 3 years after the GFC to get the deficit back under 3% again.
Which as I have said for the past year is made possible in no small part because we went into this recession in a much better place than Brown's recession.
Give it a rest. Even if you are right that fiscal policy should have been tighter in 2006/7, it made no difference to the global financial crisis. Whatever the implications for a future that did not happen, it had no effect on the crisis that did happen.
It didn't make a difference to the GFC, it made a difference to how the UK came out of the GFC. That's the difference, can't you understand that?
Shocks happen they're a fact of life. Its how you go into them and how you come out of them that matters. The UK was horribly exposed to the GFC with Brown's deficit - and as a result came atrociously out of it.
Covid was a more severe, more awful shock, but the UK was better prepared for it so is coming out better.
Osborne flat-lining the recovery he inherited from Labour did not help.
If only Labour hadnt fked the economy in the first place then we wouldnt have needed a recovery
There's a reason the global financial crisis was called the Global Financial Crisis.
It was the Gorbals financial crisis, caused by a Scotsman.
16,000 cases in Czechia, a tiny country. Poland surging. Russia 452 deaths
Eastern Europe is having a bad 3rd wave
The photo of the party on the bridge in Prague to welcome the eradication of covid will be iconic for all the wrong reasons.
Every western country that has gloated about its covid handling has gone on to regret it. Germany, Ireland, Sweden, Trump’s America, Czechia, the UK (tho we soon admitted it was a calamity)
The only exceptions are Oz/NZ. Maybe they too will one day succumb to this iron law
Unlikely. They'll vaccinate then open up, job done.
The people wanting us to close like them post-vaccination are absolutely bonkers though.
It may be hidden away elsewhere in the detail but it seems to me the great failing of this budget is to fail to address issues around online sales and multi-national tax avoidance.
Suggesting what the budget was missing but not neccesarily offering any solutions.
He comes across to me like the hopelessly awkward and embarrassing Father of the Bride Speech you sometime get. Shuffling of papers, in jokes that leave blank faces everywhere, trains of thought that go nowhere, “serious face” moments that leave everyone apart from the bride and mother of the bride bored. And then suddenly sits down without anyone realising it was the end because they forgot to even do the big shouty “raise a toast” moment.
16,000 cases in Czechia, a tiny country. Poland surging. Russia 452 deaths
Eastern Europe is having a bad 3rd wave
The photo of the party on the bridge in Prague to welcome the eradication of covid will be iconic for all the wrong reasons.
Every western country that has gloated about its covid handling has gone on to regret it. Germany, Ireland, Sweden, Trump’s America, Czechia, the UK (tho we soon admitted it was a calamity)
The only exceptions are Oz/NZ. Maybe they too will one day succumb to this iron law
Unlikely. They'll vaccinate then open up, job done.
The people wanting us to close like them post-vaccination are absolutely bonkers though.
Interestingly, Australia did rather well - comparatively - during Spanish flu.
A faraway island country with relatively few links to the world, enormous space, low population density, good healthcare, and lots of sunshine, is basically a good place to be during a pandemic
Suggesting what the budget was missing but not neccesarily offering any solutions.
He comes across to me like the hopelessly awkward and embarrassing Father of the Bride Speech you sometime get. Shuffling of papers, in jokes that leave blank faces everywhere, trains of thought that go nowhere, “serious face” moments that leave everyone apart from the bride and mother of the bride bored. And then suddenly sits down without anyone realising it was the end because they forgot to even do the big shouty “raise a toast” moment.
That definitely sounds like something to aspire to when the moment comes.
Claiming the mantle of honesty and responsibility whilst ducking all the serious choices over how to balance the books is neither honest nor responsible.
Were you not listening?
He's forecast the deficit back under 3% before the next election.
I would have thought such a forecast was "brave". If the deficit is back under 3% before the next election then that is extraordinarily rapid so soon after the recession.
That’s precisely my point. This is a speech about serious disease offering very weak medicine.
How is that weak?
The deficit back under 3% within 3 years of the depression isn't weak its a comprehensive cure for the deficit. It wasn't possible 3 years after the GFC to get the deficit back under 3% again.
Which as I have said for the past year is made possible in no small part because we went into this recession in a much better place than Brown's recession.
Give it a rest. Even if you are right that fiscal policy should have been tighter in 2006/7, it made no difference to the global financial crisis. Whatever the implications for a future that did not happen, it had no effect on the crisis that did happen.
It didn't make a difference to the GFC, it made a difference to how the UK came out of the GFC. That's the difference, can't you understand that?
Shocks happen they're a fact of life. Its how you go into them and how you come out of them that matters. The UK was horribly exposed to the GFC with Brown's deficit - and as a result came atrociously out of it.
Covid was a more severe, more awful shock, but the UK was better prepared for it so is coming out better.
Osborne flat-lining the recovery he inherited from Labour did not help.
If only Labour hadnt fked the economy in the first place then we wouldnt have needed a recovery
There's a reason the global financial crisis was called the Global Financial Crisis.
It wasn't global, it was actually quite limited. Most countries didn't experience a financial crisis - UK, US, Iceland, Spain and Ireland did, and the first two, because they are so hugely important to the financial system, exported it around the world. But Germany, Canada, France, Italy, Sweden and Japan, for instance, didn't experience financial crises of their own - only what they imported from us.
The effects of the GFC, and the economic aftershocks, were truly global.
Overall I expect we'll see bumper investment in the next year or two, growth far faster than the OBR forecasts and I expect that Sunak will be well placed to do something in a year or two.
Hopefully bringing Corporation Tax back down can be done next Parliament.
Claiming the mantle of honesty and responsibility whilst ducking all the serious choices over how to balance the books is neither honest nor responsible.
Were you not listening?
He's forecast the deficit back under 3% before the next election.
I would have thought such a forecast was "brave". If the deficit is back under 3% before the next election then that is extraordinarily rapid so soon after the recession.
That’s precisely my point. This is a speech about serious disease offering very weak medicine.
How is that weak?
The deficit back under 3% within 3 years of the depression isn't weak its a comprehensive cure for the deficit. It wasn't possible 3 years after the GFC to get the deficit back under 3% again.
Which as I have said for the past year is made possible in no small part because we went into this recession in a much better place than Brown's recession.
Give it a rest. Even if you are right that fiscal policy should have been tighter in 2006/7, it made no difference to the global financial crisis. Whatever the implications for a future that did not happen, it had no effect on the crisis that did happen.
It didn't make a difference to the GFC, it made a difference to how the UK came out of the GFC. That's the difference, can't you understand that?
Shocks happen they're a fact of life. Its how you go into them and how you come out of them that matters. The UK was horribly exposed to the GFC with Brown's deficit - and as a result came atrociously out of it.
Covid was a more severe, more awful shock, but the UK was better prepared for it so is coming out better.
No, Brown's deficit had nothing to do with the UK's level of exposure to the GFC. We borrowed the money to keep the economy going throughout at very low interest rates.
What mattered was his astonishingly incomptent approach to financial regulation.
I think you misunderstood my point. What I was saying is that Brown's deficit going into the recession being very high meant that coming out of it we were ruined.
Had the deficit been under control going into the recession then when we came out of it we'd have had a deficit but not too bad a one.
How were we ruined? We have continued to be able to finance our deficits and debt ever since.
Only because we had a decade of "austerity". That was only needed because of Brown's disgraceful deficit. Won't be needed going forwards because we went into this recession in better shape and the deficit will be closed without austerity.
The deficit was small and irrelevant. There might be a case for saying the exchequer had become too dependent on the City whose contribution shrank and was replaced by QE after the GFC.
I am really struggling to see how this can be compatible with his growth figures. Unless there are some major cuts in public spending in the later years that he forgot to mention (Sturgeon style).
Claiming the mantle of honesty and responsibility whilst ducking all the serious choices over how to balance the books is neither honest nor responsible.
Were you not listening?
He's forecast the deficit back under 3% before the next election.
I would have thought such a forecast was "brave". If the deficit is back under 3% before the next election then that is extraordinarily rapid so soon after the recession.
That’s precisely my point. This is a speech about serious disease offering very weak medicine.
How is that weak?
The deficit back under 3% within 3 years of the depression isn't weak its a comprehensive cure for the deficit. It wasn't possible 3 years after the GFC to get the deficit back under 3% again.
Which as I have said for the past year is made possible in no small part because we went into this recession in a much better place than Brown's recession.
Give it a rest. Even if you are right that fiscal policy should have been tighter in 2006/7, it made no difference to the global financial crisis. Whatever the implications for a future that did not happen, it had no effect on the crisis that did happen.
It didn't make a difference to the GFC, it made a difference to how the UK came out of the GFC. That's the difference, can't you understand that?
Shocks happen they're a fact of life. Its how you go into them and how you come out of them that matters. The UK was horribly exposed to the GFC with Brown's deficit - and as a result came atrociously out of it.
Covid was a more severe, more awful shock, but the UK was better prepared for it so is coming out better.
Osborne flat-lining the recovery he inherited from Labour did not help.
If only Labour hadnt fked the economy in the first place then we wouldnt have needed a recovery
There's a reason the global financial crisis was called the Global Financial Crisis.
It wasn't global, it was actually quite limited. Most countries didn't experience a financial crisis - UK, US, Iceland, Spain and Ireland did, and the first two, because they are so hugely important to the financial system, exported it around the world. But Germany, Canada, France, Italy, Sweden and Japan, for instance, didn't experience financial crises of their own - only what they imported from us.
The effects of the GFC, and the economic aftershocks, were truly global.
Really? I must have imagined the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
Totally off-topic, I randomly watched some videos.on YouTube following UberEats /.Deliveroo runners...i didn't realise just how complex their rewards are, totally unfathomable combination of different basic price per delivery, plus ever changing "boost" multipler and ontop a ever changing daily / weekly bonus quest payments for doing total deliveries in a set window of time.
It is totally impossible to ever have any idea how much a shift will pay and when it is optimal to work. You need a PhD in mathematical modelling to even start to think about how to make reasonable predictions and that would make you ridiculously over qualified for such a job.
Claiming the mantle of honesty and responsibility whilst ducking all the serious choices over how to balance the books is neither honest nor responsible.
Were you not listening?
He's forecast the deficit back under 3% before the next election.
I would have thought such a forecast was "brave". If the deficit is back under 3% before the next election then that is extraordinarily rapid so soon after the recession.
That’s precisely my point. This is a speech about serious disease offering very weak medicine.
How is that weak?
The deficit back under 3% within 3 years of the depression isn't weak its a comprehensive cure for the deficit. It wasn't possible 3 years after the GFC to get the deficit back under 3% again.
Which as I have said for the past year is made possible in no small part because we went into this recession in a much better place than Brown's recession.
Give it a rest. Even if you are right that fiscal policy should have been tighter in 2006/7, it made no difference to the global financial crisis. Whatever the implications for a future that did not happen, it had no effect on the crisis that did happen.
It didn't make a difference to the GFC, it made a difference to how the UK came out of the GFC. That's the difference, can't you understand that?
Shocks happen they're a fact of life. Its how you go into them and how you come out of them that matters. The UK was horribly exposed to the GFC with Brown's deficit - and as a result came atrociously out of it.
Covid was a more severe, more awful shock, but the UK was better prepared for it so is coming out better.
Osborne flat-lining the recovery he inherited from Labour did not help.
If only Labour hadnt fked the economy in the first place then we wouldnt have needed a recovery
There's a reason the global financial crisis was called the Global Financial Crisis.
It wasn't global, it was actually quite limited. Most countries didn't experience a financial crisis - UK, US, Iceland, Spain and Ireland did, and the first two, because they are so hugely important to the financial system, exported it around the world. But Germany, Canada, France, Italy, Sweden and Japan, for instance, didn't experience financial crises of their own - only what they imported from us.
The effects of the GFC, and the economic aftershocks, were truly global.
Really? I must have imagined the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
I thought SKS was supposed to be a world famous barrister?
The only thing I could imagine his court addresses achieving is sending the jury to sleep...
I remember somebody on here once saying that, in the Brexit debate, Labour had brought a cannon to a water pistol fight in choosing SKS, because his forensic skills would enable him to dissect the government's approach. But he's just an example of someone fails upwards, usually because there are no better candidates.
'2.72 This year the government intends to announce some consultations separately from the Budget, and will publish a Command Paper, ‘Tax policies and consultations (Spring 2021)’ on 23 March 2021.'
This is where to look for the additional tax increases to come!
- IHT? - NI on self employed? - Pensions? - CGT? - Buy to let?
Excluding CT it seems like a good Budget, but the CT rise is a terrible idea.
Was worried there'd be more bad news than just CT so grateful that's the only bad thing. Glad there were no other tax rises.
There were other tax rises, unless you believe that we will have zero inflation between now and 2026.
If inflation takes off as a result of such unprecedented peacetime deficit spending, and the consensus amongst economists is that it will, then the freeze in personal tax allowances until 2026 will amount to a huge increase in personal taxation as wages rise to try and keep place.
Sunak or any future Chancellor won't have to announce any of those tax increases, as he will only have to announce changes to previously announced plans in future budgets.
Smoke and mirrors.
It's a bit like the 2010 budget, when Osborne reintroduced the link between the state pension and wage increases just at the point where he knew wage increases would collapse during his planned years of austerity.
Now Sunak is freezing personal tax allowances for 5 years, just at the point where he knows wage increases are about to take off in the face of rising inflation.
16,000 cases in Czechia, a tiny country. Poland surging. Russia 452 deaths
Eastern Europe is having a bad 3rd wave
The photo of the party on the bridge in Prague to welcome the eradication of covid will be iconic for all the wrong reasons.
Every western country that has gloated about its covid handling has gone on to regret it. Germany, Ireland, Sweden, Trump’s America, Czechia, the UK (tho we soon admitted it was a calamity)
The only exceptions are Oz/NZ. Maybe they too will one day succumb to this iron law
Unlikely. They'll vaccinate then open up, job done.
The people wanting us to close like them post-vaccination are absolutely bonkers though.
Interestingly, Australia did rather well - comparatively - during Spanish flu.
A faraway island country with relatively few links to the world, enormous space, low population density, good healthcare, and lots of sunshine, is basically a good place to be during a pandemic
Sadly they suffered from exactly what you mentioned earlier. In the initial waves they managed to do extremely well because of a timely maritime quarantine. But they then lifted that just in time to be hit by the third wave in 1919. As a result it is estimated that around 2 million of the 5 million population were infected.
But yes you are spot on that overall they did comparatively well with only around 12,000 deaths in total.
16,000 cases in Czechia, a tiny country. Poland surging. Russia 452 deaths
Eastern Europe is having a bad 3rd wave
The photo of the party on the bridge in Prague to welcome the eradication of covid will be iconic for all the wrong reasons.
Every western country that has gloated about its covid handling has gone on to regret it. Germany, Ireland, Sweden, Trump’s America, Czechia, the UK (tho we soon admitted it was a calamity)
The only exceptions are Oz/NZ. Maybe they too will one day succumb to this iron law
Unlikely. They'll vaccinate then open up, job done.
The people wanting us to close like them post-vaccination are absolutely bonkers though.
The sort of people who would try and get their political opponents sent to jail and then lie about it?
Totally off-topic, I randomly watched some videos.on YouTube following UberEats /.Deliveroo runners...i didn't realise just how complex their rewards are, totally unfathomable combination of different basic price per delivery, plus ever changing "boost" multipler and ontop a ever changing daily / weekly bonus quest payments for doing total deliveries in a set window of time.
It is totally impossible to ever have any idea how much a shift will pay and when it is optimal to work. You need a PhD in mathematical modelling to even start to think about how to make reasonable predictions and that would make you ridiculously over qualified for such a job.
That's the point. The applications are designed to provide hidden incentives to keep you working while not revealing exactly how little you are being paid.
Overall I expect we'll see bumper investment in the next year or two, growth far faster than the OBR forecasts and I expect that Sunak will be well placed to do something in a year or two.
Hopefully bringing Corporation Tax back down can be done next Parliament.
I wonder if there's a cap on the super deduction. Could be very attractive for certain very large projects and ambitious projects.
Claiming the mantle of honesty and responsibility whilst ducking all the serious choices over how to balance the books is neither honest nor responsible.
Were you not listening?
He's forecast the deficit back under 3% before the next election.
I would have thought such a forecast was "brave". If the deficit is back under 3% before the next election then that is extraordinarily rapid so soon after the recession.
That’s precisely my point. This is a speech about serious disease offering very weak medicine.
How is that weak?
The deficit back under 3% within 3 years of the depression isn't weak its a comprehensive cure for the deficit. It wasn't possible 3 years after the GFC to get the deficit back under 3% again.
Which as I have said for the past year is made possible in no small part because we went into this recession in a much better place than Brown's recession.
Give it a rest. Even if you are right that fiscal policy should have been tighter in 2006/7, it made no difference to the global financial crisis. Whatever the implications for a future that did not happen, it had no effect on the crisis that did happen.
It didn't make a difference to the GFC, it made a difference to how the UK came out of the GFC. That's the difference, can't you understand that?
Shocks happen they're a fact of life. Its how you go into them and how you come out of them that matters. The UK was horribly exposed to the GFC with Brown's deficit - and as a result came atrociously out of it.
Covid was a more severe, more awful shock, but the UK was better prepared for it so is coming out better.
No, Brown's deficit had nothing to do with the UK's level of exposure to the GFC. We borrowed the money to keep the economy going throughout at very low interest rates.
What mattered was his astonishingly incomptent approach to financial regulation.
I think you misunderstood my point. What I was saying is that Brown's deficit going into the recession being very high meant that coming out of it we were ruined.
Had the deficit been under control going into the recession then when we came out of it we'd have had a deficit but not too bad a one.
How were we ruined? We have continued to be able to finance our deficits and debt ever since.
Only because we had a decade of "austerity". That was only needed because of Brown's disgraceful deficit. Won't be needed going forwards because we went into this recession in better shape and the deficit will be closed without austerity.
The deficit was small and irrelevant. There might be a case for saying the exchequer had become too dependent on the City whose contribution shrank and was replaced by QE after the GFC.
3% of GDP pre-recession during boom times is neither small nor irrelevant.
Excluding CT it seems like a good Budget, but the CT rise is a terrible idea.
Was worried there'd be more bad news than just CT so grateful that's the only bad thing. Glad there were no other tax rises.
There were other tax rises, unless you believe that we will have zero inflation between now and 2026.
If inflation takes off as a result of such unprecedented peacetime deficit spending, and the consensus amongst economists is that it will, then the freeze in personal tax allowances until 2026 will amount to a huge increase in personal taxation as wages rise to try and keep place.
Sunak or any future Chancellor won't have to announce any of those tax increases, as he will only have to announce changes to previously announced plans in future budgets.
Smoke and mirrors.
It's a bit like the 2010 budget, when Osborne reintroduced the link between the state pension and wage increases just at the point where he knew wage increases would collapse during his planned years of austerity.
Now Sunak is freezing personal tax allowances for 5 years, just at the point where he knows wage increases are about to take off in the face of rising inflation.
'2.72 This year the government intends to announce some consultations separately from the Budget, and will publish a Command Paper, ‘Tax policies and consultations (Spring 2021)’ on 23 March 2021.'
This is where to look for the additional tax increases to come!
- IHT? - NI on self employed? - Pensions? - CGT? - Buy to let?
??????
I think you are right. It wouldn't surprise me to find that next year is the real sting budget with lots of nasty surprises. He can't leave it any later because of the electoral cycle so I think next year's budget will be pretty shit for a lot of people
I remember that the 2012 and 2007 budgets were well received on the day.
Tbh, I don't think this will be received well. That headline CT rate is awful and will grab headlines across the world.
I think people will see it as a bit meh (free ports?) apart from the furlough extension, but as they were expecting grim stuff they'll feel that wasn't too bad. Loading the cost onto business profits (in the future) and creeping income tax (in the future, by freezing allowances) has a very low current political cost for most voters.
Totally off-topic, I randomly watched some videos.on YouTube following UberEats /.Deliveroo runners...i didn't realise just how complex their rewards are, totally unfathomable combination of different basic price per delivery, plus ever changing "boost" multipler and ontop a ever changing daily / weekly bonus quest payments for doing total deliveries in a set window of time.
It is totally impossible to ever have any idea how much a shift will pay and when it is optimal to work. You need a PhD in mathematical modelling to even start to think about how to make reasonable predictions and that would make you ridiculously over qualified for such a job.
That's the point. The applications are designed to provide hidden incentives to keep you working while not revealing exactly how little you are being paid.
And obviously that is before you can even start to factor in the actual running costs if you are using a motorbike, its more than just the petrol, its all the hidden costs of wear and tear.
I was aware of the changing price per delivery, but i wasn't aware of the levels of complexity added ontop with the "gamifying" bonuses....it reminds me of my poker days, where there were all these type of rewards schemes and I would have to write some code to work out required number of monthly hands played to gain the sort of monthly rewards I wanted.
So my taxes are going up via fiscal drag to pay doleies more, as is corporation tax.
Corbyn really did win the argument in the 2019 election.
The country is full of old, ill and poor people. They need to be looked after in a vaguely responsible way, which means rich people and their assets have to be soaked. You can argue, as I do, that the Government is being pushed by electoral imperatives towards going about some of this in the wrong way, but the basic principle holds.
If we don't attempt any form of redistribution to support the relatively weak then more and more people are just going to become poor, until we either have to get rid of democracy or accept the election of a Corbyn figure.
For the last decade and a bit my taxes have gone up a lot, I used to pay 40% then it went to 50% now it is 45%, rich people have been soaked for the last the decade and then some, I mean I don't mind paying those taxes, I'm at heart a One Nation Tory, but I'm tired of the narrative the rich don't pay their taxes.
I withdraw my comment in part. I shouldn't have over-emphasised "the rich" as a nebulous group when I'm really getting at the need to ask, over time, pretty much everyone who can spare a bit of cash to contribute more - and that means upper income earners, middle income earners *and* wealthier pensioners. After all, against a backdrop of an ever-increasing proportion of unproductive dependents, what else are we to do?
Overall I expect we'll see bumper investment in the next year or two, growth far faster than the OBR forecasts and I expect that Sunak will be well placed to do something in a year or two.
Hopefully bringing Corporation Tax back down can be done next Parliament.
I wonder if there's a cap on the super deduction. Could be very attractive for certain very large projects and ambitious projects.
'2.72 This year the government intends to announce some consultations separately from the Budget, and will publish a Command Paper, ‘Tax policies and consultations (Spring 2021)’ on 23 March 2021.'
This is where to look for the additional tax increases to come!
- IHT? - NI on self employed? - Pensions? - CGT? - Buy to let?
??????
I think you are right. It wouldn't surprise me to find that next year is the real sting budget with lots of nasty surprises. He can't leave it any later because of the electoral cycle so I think next year's budget will be pretty shit for a lot of people
He announced today that IHT and CGT thresholds are frozen to 2026.
I'm seriously worried about corporate taxes rising. If the chancellor makes this shirt sighted move it's going to hurt the economy in the long term. Ignore the IFS, ignore "economists" and lower it to 15% and introduce gigantic or unlimited R&D and capital investment allowances.
We need to grow our way out of this, not push up taxes.
100% agreed.
Tax cuts not tax rises please Rishi!
The strategy is to freeze allowances, limits and ceilings for five years and wait for inflation to drag in the extra tax revenue
He might not wait, but encourage it instead. Replay of the 1970s, with a bigger debt mountain, and a more flexible economy.
I didn't know we had elected John McDonnell as CoE....
Boris won in 2019 by running on Corbyn's platform from 2017.
The Tories have no ideas other than the essentially trivial War on Woke. Once Leave and Pandemic are in the rear view mirror they will struggle.
Do tell us Labour’s “ideas”
A core one is higher taxes on the wealthy to fund an expanded activist state. But it looks like the Cons are doing that, so Labour might as well keep quiet for now. Better to be the organ grinder than the monkey.
Claiming the mantle of honesty and responsibility whilst ducking all the serious choices over how to balance the books is neither honest nor responsible.
Were you not listening?
He's forecast the deficit back under 3% before the next election.
I would have thought such a forecast was "brave". If the deficit is back under 3% before the next election then that is extraordinarily rapid so soon after the recession.
That’s precisely my point. This is a speech about serious disease offering very weak medicine.
How is that weak?
The deficit back under 3% within 3 years of the depression isn't weak its a comprehensive cure for the deficit. It wasn't possible 3 years after the GFC to get the deficit back under 3% again.
Which as I have said for the past year is made possible in no small part because we went into this recession in a much better place than Brown's recession.
Give it a rest. Even if you are right that fiscal policy should have been tighter in 2006/7, it made no difference to the global financial crisis. Whatever the implications for a future that did not happen, it had no effect on the crisis that did happen.
It didn't make a difference to the GFC, it made a difference to how the UK came out of the GFC. That's the difference, can't you understand that?
Shocks happen they're a fact of life. Its how you go into them and how you come out of them that matters. The UK was horribly exposed to the GFC with Brown's deficit - and as a result came atrociously out of it.
Covid was a more severe, more awful shock, but the UK was better prepared for it so is coming out better.
Osborne flat-lining the recovery he inherited from Labour did not help.
If only Labour hadnt fked the economy in the first place then we wouldnt have needed a recovery
There's a reason the global financial crisis was called the Global Financial Crisis.
Overall I expect we'll see bumper investment in the next year or two, growth far faster than the OBR forecasts and I expect that Sunak will be well placed to do something in a year or two.
Hopefully bringing Corporation Tax back down can be done next Parliament.
I wonder if there's a cap on the super deduction. Could be very attractive for certain very large projects and ambitious projects.
16,000 cases in Czechia, a tiny country. Poland surging. Russia 452 deaths
Eastern Europe is having a bad 3rd wave
The photo of the party on the bridge in Prague to welcome the eradication of covid will be iconic for all the wrong reasons.
Every western country that has gloated about its covid handling has gone on to regret it. Germany, Ireland, Sweden, Trump’s America, Czechia, the UK (tho we soon admitted it was a calamity)
The only exceptions are Oz/NZ. Maybe they too will one day succumb to this iron law
Unlikely. They'll vaccinate then open up, job done.
The people wanting us to close like them post-vaccination are absolutely bonkers though.
Interestingly, Australia did rather well - comparatively - during Spanish flu.
A faraway island country with relatively few links to the world, enormous space, low population density, good healthcare, and lots of sunshine, is basically a good place to be during a pandemic
Sadly they suffered from exactly what you mentioned earlier. In the initial waves they managed to do extremely well because of a timely maritime quarantine. But they then lifted that just in time to be hit by the third wave in 1919. As a result it is estimated that around 2 million of the 5 million population were infected.
But yes you are spot on that overall they did comparatively well with only around 12,000 deaths in total.
They can't keep it out forever. They have to get vaccinating. Their population has close to zero acquired immunity while even Neil Ferguson reckons we are approachinh 33% even without vaccination.
I remember that the 2012 and 2007 budgets were well received on the day.
Tbh, I don't think this will be received well. That headline CT rate is awful and will grab headlines across the world.
I think people will see it as a bit meh (free ports?) apart from the furlough extension, but as they were expecting grim stuff they'll feel that wasn't too bad. Loading the cost onto business profits (in the future) and creeping income tax (in the future, by freezing allowances) has a very low current political cost for most voters.
Nick, as I commented to Philip Thompson, I think the 5 year freeze in tax allowances including the bottom thresholds is going to be far more significant tax hike than painted in the budget, because there's every prospect that we will see a surge in inflation and with it wages just to try and keep up. The inflation projections from the OBR are at the moment low, so the impact is for now partly hidden. Smoke and mirrors.
Excluding CT it seems like a good Budget, but the CT rise is a terrible idea.
Was worried there'd be more bad news than just CT so grateful that's the only bad thing. Glad there were no other tax rises.
There were other tax rises, unless you believe that we will have zero inflation between now and 2026.
If inflation takes off as a result of such unprecedented peacetime deficit spending, and the consensus amongst economists is that it will, then the freeze in personal tax allowances until 2026 will amount to a huge increase in personal taxation as wages rise to try and keep place.
Sunak or any future Chancellor won't have to announce any of those tax increases, as he will only have to announce changes to previously announced plans in future budgets.
Smoke and mirrors.
It's a bit like the 2010 budget, when Osborne reintroduced the link between the state pension and wage increases just at the point where he knew wage increases would collapse during his planned years of austerity.
Now Sunak is freezing personal tax allowances for 5 years, just at the point where he knows wage increases are about to take off in the face of rising inflation.
So for once the stealth tax label will be right?
Yes we can expect significant inflation between now and 2026. Rishi knows this so indeed the freeze will rake in significant amounts of money.
Disappointed that the super-deduction only applies to plant and machinery. We don't have a whole heap of that over here in "cyber" where we are retraining all the ballet dancers.
I guess we are served by R&D tax credits; I didn't see any announcements related to a change in that regime?
If they can do that, it’s close to a miracle. Indeed they could then afford to lower CT again
Edit to add: tho I see debt stays horribly high throughout, so maybe not
This feels like a "market confidence" kind of budget. Rishi needs - or thinks he needs - to persuade the capital markets that the UK intends to balance its books and behave in a fiscally responsible fashion, so he can continue to borrow from them at rock-bottom rates (so that overall debt is less of an issue, for starters). That's important in a very immediate fashion. The future? Well, that could be different when we get there.
I remember that the 2012 and 2007 budgets were well received on the day.
Tbh, I don't think this will be received well. That headline CT rate is awful and will grab headlines across the world.
I think people will see it as a bit meh (free ports?) apart from the furlough extension, but as they were expecting grim stuff they'll feel that wasn't too bad. Loading the cost onto business profits (in the future) and creeping income tax (in the future, by freezing allowances) has a very low current political cost for most voters.
Nick, as I commented to Philip Thompson, I think the 5 year freeze in tax allowances including the bottom thresholds is going to be far more significant tax hike than painted in the budget, because there's every prospect that we will see a surge in inflation and with it wages just to try and keep up. The inflation projections from the OBR are at the moment low, so the impact is for now partly hidden. Smoke and mirrors.
Fiscal drag is absolutely a tax but it plays into the "sticky downwards" comment that I made to ping on Page at 12:58 about house prices. Its a tax rise, a very real tax rise, that doesn't feel like a tax rise.
In normal circumstances I'd hate that, but coming in years to come closing the deficit which has to be done in the medium term it is the least worst evil available.
Once the deficit is closed then new options become available again.
I thought SKS was supposed to be a world famous barrister?
The only thing I could imagine his court addresses achieving is sending the jury to sleep...
Since jury trials were largely restricted to criminal cases, English Barristers tend only to address judges on a day to day basis, with the result they often come accross like a student trying to convince their tutor.
So my taxes are going up via fiscal drag to pay doleies more, as is corporation tax.
Corbyn really did win the argument in the 2019 election.
The country is full of old, ill and poor people. They need to be looked after in a vaguely responsible way, which means rich people and their assets have to be soaked. You can argue, as I do, that the Government is being pushed by electoral imperatives towards going about some of this in the wrong way, but the basic principle holds.
If we don't attempt any form of redistribution to support the relatively weak then more and more people are just going to become poor, until we either have to get rid of democracy or accept the election of a Corbyn figure.
For the last decade and a bit my taxes have gone up a lot, I used to pay 40% then it went to 50% now it is 45%, rich people have been soaked for the last the decade and then some, I mean I don't mind paying those taxes, I'm at heart a One Nation Tory, but I'm tired of the narrative the rich don't pay their taxes.
You just cant count.
If the bulk of the population has no salary rises and the top 10% have had buckets of them then proportionately the rich are going to pay more taxes as they have and ever increasing portion of the pie plus the minor point they can afford it.
Pay the bulk of the work force more and your tax bill goes down. Next youll be telling me director pay impacts company performance.
BIB - Absolutely, thanks to my excellent work in Brexit preparations my firm has dealt with Brexit wonderfully well, which is astonishing considering the deal was announced on Christmas Eve and implemented on New Year's Eve.
I will enjoy my Brexit bonus which gets paid at the end of the month.
Disappointed that the super-deduction only applies to plant and machinery. We don't have a whole heap of that over here in "cyber" where we are retraining all the ballet dancers.
I guess we are served by R&D tax credits; I didn't see any announcements related to a change in that regime?
Uhh.. Computers and other top-of-the-range latest technology?
A Labour leader, A LABOUR LEADER!, criticising the government for wanting to OPEN a coal mine?
I'm glad someone else is amused by this. Nothing more exemplifies the shift in Labour from a party of the working classes to one of middle class student types than this. And explains why they currently have no chance of recovering their seats in the North.
It's also an interesting issue - either export the CO2 production, since coal for steel making will be produced. Or don't.
If they can do that, it’s close to a miracle. Indeed they could then afford to lower CT again
Edit to add: tho I see debt stays horribly high throughout, so maybe not
This feels like a "market confidence" kind of budget. Rishi needs - or thinks he needs - to persuade the capital markets that the UK intends to balance its books and behave in a fiscally responsible fashion, so he can continue to borrow from them at rock-bottom rates (so that overall debt is less of an issue, for starters). That's important in a very immediate fashion. The future? Well, that could be different when we get there.
Isn't the policy explicitly that they are fixing the deficit, and inflating away the debt over decades.
(ETA: hence the comparison with WW2 and "many governments to come")
Sunak has followed the golden political rule with tax rises - don't take actual cash from anyone in person.
Freezing allowances doesn't reduce take home pay in actual cash.
And voters see CT as distant - it's paid by "companies" not "me" personally.
Look at everything he hasn't touched - not just IT, NI and VAT rates - but there's no change to £1m free IHT, no change to £20k per year into ISAs, no change to £12k free CGT. Plus the pensions triple lock stays.
It's very clever politically - there's nothing here which will shake anybody.
Sunak has followed the golden political rule with tax rises - don't take actual cash from anyone in person.
Freezing allowances doesn't reduce take home pay in actual cash.
And voters see CT as distant - it's paid by "companies" not "me" personally.
Look at everything he hasn't touched - not just IT, NI and VAT rates - but there's no change to £1m free IHT, no change to £20k per year into ISAs, no change to £12k free CGT. Plus the pensions triple lock stays.
It's very clever politically - there's nothing here which will shake anybody.
More specifically, he hasn't touched any of the things the 2019 Tory manifesto said they wouldn't raise.
Comments
Elsewhere, maybe.
If the bulk of the population has no salary rises and the top 10% have had buckets of them then proportionately the rich are going to pay more taxes as they have and ever increasing portion of the pie plus the minor point they can afford it.
Pay the bulk of the work force more and your tax bill goes down. Next youll be telling me director pay impacts company performance.
It's best to have lower rates with fewer deductions.
The only exceptions are Oz/NZ. Maybe they too will one day succumb to this iron law
Austerity was unnecessary and counter-productive - a classic example of the paradox of thrift.
That said, it is like listening to paint dry.
The people wanting us to close like them post-vaccination are absolutely bonkers though.
Run that one by me again?
The only thing I could imagine his court addresses achieving is sending the jury to sleep...
Any idea what it is?
Plenty of digs at Sunak but accusing him of not having a plan,
Right
A faraway island country with relatively few links to the world, enormous space, low population density, good healthcare, and lots of sunshine, is basically a good place to be during a pandemic
The effects of the GFC, and the economic aftershocks, were truly global.
Hopefully bringing Corporation Tax back down can be done next Parliament.
Edit to add: tho I see debt stays horribly high throughout, so maybe not
It is totally impossible to ever have any idea how much a shift will pay and when it is optimal to work. You need a PhD in mathematical modelling to even start to think about how to make reasonable predictions and that would make you ridiculously over qualified for such a job.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/966160/Budget_2021_Print.pdf (page 59)
There has to be a challenge he is useless
'2.72 This year the government intends to announce some consultations separately from the Budget, and will publish a Command Paper, ‘Tax policies and consultations (Spring 2021)’ on 23 March 2021.'
This is where to look for the additional tax increases to come!
- IHT?
- NI on self employed?
- Pensions?
- CGT?
- Buy to let?
??????
If inflation takes off as a result of such unprecedented peacetime deficit spending, and the consensus amongst economists is that it will, then the freeze in personal tax allowances until 2026 will amount to a huge increase in personal taxation as wages rise to try and keep place.
Sunak or any future Chancellor won't have to announce any of those tax increases, as he will only have to announce changes to previously announced plans in future budgets.
Smoke and mirrors.
It's a bit like the 2010 budget, when Osborne reintroduced the link between the state pension and wage increases just at the point where he knew wage increases would collapse during his planned years of austerity.
Now Sunak is freezing personal tax allowances for 5 years, just at the point where he knows wage increases are about to take off in the face of rising inflation.
But yes you are spot on that overall they did comparatively well with only around 12,000 deaths in total.
Which it can be, but is not certain to be.
I was aware of the changing price per delivery, but i wasn't aware of the levels of complexity added ontop with the "gamifying" bonuses....it reminds me of my poker days, where there were all these type of rewards schemes and I would have to write some code to work out required number of monthly hands played to gain the sort of monthly rewards I wanted.
Blyth also applied.
OK, that's a tax rise but not a massive one.
Replay of the 1970s, with a bigger debt mountain, and a more flexible economy.
Expected more for the WM than just a Freeport.
Meanwhile in Teesside you can probably correlate freeport locations (for there are 8 across the region) with Red Wall seats - I've not checked..
Edit - spoke too soon.....the answer is independence.....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-56251990
I guess we are served by R&D tax credits; I didn't see any announcements related to a change in that regime?
In normal circumstances I'd hate that, but coming in years to come closing the deficit which has to be done in the medium term it is the least worst evil available.
Once the deficit is closed then new options become available again.
I will enjoy my Brexit bonus which gets paid at the end of the month.
The first is gesture politics.
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1367111493817405443?s=20
(ETA: hence the comparison with WW2 and "many governments to come")
Freezing allowances doesn't reduce take home pay in actual cash.
And voters see CT as distant - it's paid by "companies" not "me" personally.
Look at everything he hasn't touched - not just IT, NI and VAT rates - but there's no change to £1m free IHT, no change to £20k per year into ISAs, no change to £12k free CGT. Plus the pensions triple lock stays.
It's very clever politically - there's nothing here which will shake anybody.