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Crisis Management: EU-style – politicalbetting.com

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning all,

    On topic. It's an excellent piece from @Cyclefree but I need to pick up on some of the legal analysis. I've been through the AZ/EU contract with a fine toothbrush and have come to a completely different set of conclusions which are far more favourable to Brussels and cast the situation in a wholly different light. Writing them up now. Watch this space.

    Off topic. There's been a twitter storm here in North London today with an antivax loony spreading the story that Captain Tom Moore (rooting for) had had the vaccine and his now having Covid proved it doesn't work. Tetchy exchanges ensued during which worrying evidence for the claim was presented in the form of a link headlined "Tom gets vaccine". Clicked in and it turns out Tom has indeed had the vaccine. Tom Jones. Can you believe this stuff? Pathetic really. Why why why must people abuse social media this way?

    You can't go on the roads without a driving test - to show you won't kill people.

    Hammer on the keyboard and you can help kill thousands.

    Can't help but think that if the internet had been launched fully formed on Day One with a big fanfare, it wouldn't necessarily look like it does today. There might have been a bit more thought given to complete arseholes facing a STFU button, for example.
    Oh dear! Not you as well.

    Max is a very serious-minded poster so I feel a bit bad if he thought I was actually about to launch onto PB a whole new interpretation of the AstraZeneca contract.

    But you are always posting tongue-in-cheek stuff so no excuse I'm afraid.
    Please, dont take the "complete arseholes facing a STFU button" personally.

    /TongueInCheekMode
    No point pretending now, Mark. You were well pissed off at the prospect of an "alternative" legal opinion on the contract from yours truly. :smile:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:
    You have to wonder: HOW stupid?

    Yes, you can have AZ product from UK facilities. Once the UK contracts have been met.

    Not before.
    That does not seem to be quite correct.
    AZN appears to have provided UvdL with a small figleaf, which no doubt will be presented as a triumph on her part.

    Covid: EU and AstraZeneca in 'step forward' on vaccines
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55879345
    Except, 8 million of those 9 million were on offer before the EU Commission decided to engage Bezerker mode.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,240
    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:
    You have to wonder: HOW stupid?

    Yes, you can have AZ product from UK facilities. Once the UK contracts have been met.

    Not before.
    That does not seem to be quite correct.
    AZN appears to have provided UvdL with a small figleaf, which no doubt will be presented as a triumph on her part.

    Covid: EU and AstraZeneca in 'step forward' on vaccines
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55879345
    Been watching the EU Press Briefing on this.

    "Where did the extra 9m vaccines come from?"

    "Ask Astra-Zeneca".

    Asked several times. Simultaneous translation available (but not talking to my laptop).

    https://audiovisual.ec.europa.eu/en/
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Would any of us accept that answer from politician X we dislike? I doubt it.
    Yes apart from the pope being infallible bit of course. We made a mistake and are correcting it generally improves a politicians standing in my eyes. In the specific case they are not doing enough to correct it yet so it doesnt hold but generally it is better than feeding us with tenuous spin after a mistake.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,440

    Door-to-door testing for the South African variant of coronavirus is to start in Surrey after cases were found with no known links with travel or previous cases.

    So far, cases of the variant in the UK had been traced back to South Africa – but experts say two people in Woking found with the variant have no such known links.

    Slightly worrying, but (a) at least they seem to be jumping on this and (b) both vaccines in UK use likely to be effective, even if not at 90 % rate (hopefully reducing severity at worst).
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,725

    Community transmission of Saffers COVID....takes minds back to this time last year....

    Indeed.

    Difference is we have learnt lessons, can do three quarters of a million tests in a day and have a vaccine that's mostly effective.

    Shut the f***ing border now until the world catches up. Lets stamp it out and END RESTRICTIONS in this country.
    If it keeps the French out.. so be it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,240
    Selebian said:

    "as effective... as possible"

    It's a bit like the reports that "Johnson did his best"

    Sometimes, it's just not good enough.
    Hah!

    The Pope has the good sense to limit it to matters of Faith and Morals, which cannot be tested easily. Then RCs have the opt-out of Conscience.
  • Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Where is everyone?

    Reminiscing about their incredible 2020 "Sturgeon to be replaced by end of year" tipping on the other thread.
    Lol.
    I see the previous PB thread you linked to highlighted the price for Sturgeon to leave before the end of 2020 being 11/10 compared to the current (hold the front page) 2/1. Entertainingly both pieces mention reporting from that organ of prime Scotch expertise, the Telegraph.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:
    You have to wonder: HOW stupid?

    Yes, you can have AZ product from UK facilities. Once the UK contracts have been met.

    Not before.
    That does not seem to be quite correct.
    AZN appears to have provided UvdL with a small figleaf, which no doubt will be presented as a triumph on her part.

    Covid: EU and AstraZeneca in 'step forward' on vaccines
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55879345
    Except, 8 million of those 9 million were on offer before the EU Commission decided to engage Bezerker mode.
    AZN, having realised that the commission have nailed their trousers to the masthead, have offered them the claw hammer they offered them last week.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,588

    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    This whole debate is a crock of shit. It's not Lockdowns that depress Covid it's Distancing. If there was a way to get the same Distancing without Lockdown then Lockdown would not be needed. But in the society we live in - being this one rather than one cooked up in the imagination - there wasn't and there isn't. So the tool kit had to include Lockdowns. You can take up different positions on timing, extent, guidance vs law, messaging, how policed, economic support, this sort of thing. All perfectly valid and interesting. But you cannot argue that Distancing (via Lockdowns) is not required to fight Covid. The virus spreads less if people keep apart. To say or imply otherwise is anti-science and anti-truth. The people who do it fall into one of only two categories. (i) Know they're lying. Charlatans and Trolls. (ii) Do not know they're lying. Morons.
    Lockdowns are only necessary if other measures have failed.

    Had we had mandatory hotel quarantines in the summer when cases were nearly eradicated in parts of the country then its entirely possible the virus would have been eliminated and there wouldn't have been a second wave.
    Yes, in March last year we concentrated on locking down the domestic population when what we should have done is focused on banning flights, etc.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Polls are weird at the moment. I am not sure you can poll in a national crisis.

    If there had been polling through WW2, I am pretty sure the government would have had some pretty hefty leads.

    Labour should not worry to hard about the polls right now IMO, it should spend its energy figuring out what the post-COVID, post-BREXIT world looks like and needs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220
    A reminder of one of our government's grosser failures.

    https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1355189204213522435
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning all,

    On topic. It's an excellent piece from @Cyclefree but I need to pick up on some of the legal analysis. I've been through the AZ/EU contract with a fine toothbrush and have come to a completely different set of conclusions which are far more favourable to Brussels and cast the situation in a wholly different light. Writing them up now. Watch this space.

    Off topic. There's been a twitter storm here in North London today with an antivax loony spreading the story that Captain Tom Moore (rooting for) had had the vaccine and his now having Covid proved it doesn't work. Tetchy exchanges ensued during which worrying evidence for the claim was presented in the form of a link headlined "Tom gets vaccine". Clicked in and it turns out Tom has indeed had the vaccine. Tom Jones. Can you believe this stuff? Pathetic really. Why why why must people abuse social media this way?

    Cyclefree is a lawyer, you aren't. She has the expert opinion here, you have the pro-EU, Britain hating agenda fuelled predetermined conclusion.

    Sorry mate, all of the lawyers have opined on this in favour of AZ, including remain voting ones like David Allen Green.
    That was a joke from me, Max.
    "Went through the contract with a fine toothbrush?"
    :smile:
    You should have made this clearer by using a "fine loo-brush".
    Surely a gold bog brush?

    https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-protesters-troll-putin-gold-toilet-brushes-2021-2?r=US&IR=T
  • IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Yep, difficult to disagree with any of that.

    I do wonder, however, if it is just possible that those who were so convinced that the EU were the adults, the reasonable ones whose views and positions should be given unstinting respect and deference through the long and tedious Brexit saga are taking the opportunity to reflect. It turns out that the EU is not an institution of laws after all. It is a bureaucratic mess, slow and incompetent, with a massive democratic deficit who cannot be relied upon to respect the views of its members (in this case Ireland and Art 16).

    Thank the lord we are out of it. Now let's move on together and make the best of our own path.

    As I keep pointing out, there is a world of difference between the EU pooing the bed over their vaccine fiasco and the EU stating a core negotiating position that the UK refused to accept. Nor are the EU the reason why we have chosen to leave the EEA. From the EU's self-imposed idiocy to our own - a wine importer whose business cannot function under the rules the UK government demanded be imposed.

    Some of the responses are quite funny as well. "Can't you import wine from elsewhere?" No - it doesn't exist. ROW doesn't produce anywhere near enough wine to replace EU volume. Err, "they need our customs. can't the frogs tell Macron to change his rules?" No, these are our rules. Insisted on by the UK government.

    https://twitter.com/DanielLambert29/status/1355437505642975233
    Your constant posting of anti brexit stories is rather pointless even more so after these last few days

    We are not going back so business will have to adapt
    I think we know that. The actual issue at the moment (if you read the tweets) is the paperwork requirements are making low volume imports impossible.

    Importing a container with a single product on it not a problem - 1 set of paperwork required.
    Start importing different product within a single container and the problems start to occur - as you need 1 set of paperwork per product and any 1 mistake on single form is enough to block the whole container from moving.
    Start splitting pallets into smaller orders and real problems begin. Remember 1 mistake blocks the entire container

    We've spent 30+ years with paperwork free exports and imports from the EU. The introduction of paperwork (a lot of which HMRC have zero people who understand it) is making things impossible. And Covid is sweeping this under the table.

    Now things will get easier - but they will get easier by people reducing the products they import and export - so less paperwork is required and less paperwork is the only way to avoid mistakes occurring.
    So people will adjust. That's not impossible.

    If people don't want to adjust, especially people with EU flags in their Twitter handle, that's on them not politics.

    The idea it is "impossible" to import wines from outside of a customs union would be a strange thought to anyone who likes New World wines.
    Thanks for again demonstrating your ignorance on the subject. I am not remotely interested in wine, but I was interested in the response to someone else who made the same point you did. The production volume of New World wine cannot possibly replace the volume lost from not being able to import viably from the EEA - the wine simply doesn't exist in anywhere near sufficient volume to be imported as a replacement.

    So yes, its impossible to replace wine that doesn't exist.
    The total production of wine in 2018 for the whole world was 292 million hecto litres or 292 billion litres.
    The eu produced last year 14 billion litres of wine.....the idea that the rest of the world doesnt produce enough wine to to replace the 4 billion litres we import is ....odd
    I think you are out by a factor of 10 on the meaning of hectolitre.
    Lo! And so a clever PB'er spots his gross error.

    A very useful behaviour to adopt - and to encourage in others - is, before doing any calculation, take a rough guess as to what the answer might be. It'll prevent those embarrassments where you cock up an Excel formula and come up with a dumb answer, which you share with others because it came out of the computer and so must be true.

    In the long run it'll also make you better at guessing.
    a hecto litre is 100 litres yes? so a figure of 292 million hectolitres - 292,000,000 x 100 ah yes 29.2 doh its early
    That was hard work.
    Well perhaps if someone had just said you have the decimal point in the wrong place rather than just saying no you are wrong without giving a reason why...always happy to go recheck a calculation because we all make mistakes
    That you had made a mistake was obvious - and should have been to you. That's the learning point. It's not our job to work out why you went wrong.
    I was once out in a calculation (that I submitted) by 68 orders of magnitude: it can be easily done if you are in a hurry.
  • rcs1000 said:

    An excellent article, and one I suspect almost all PBers agree with.

    What a turn up for the books that would be.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Nigelb said:

    A reminder of one of our government's grosser failures.

    https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1355189204213522435

    According to the Daily Politics, this includes most of the people arriving at airports.
  • Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    This whole debate is a crock of shit. It's not Lockdowns that depress Covid it's Distancing. If there was a way to get the same Distancing without Lockdown then Lockdown would not be needed. But in the society we live in - being this one rather than one cooked up in the imagination - there wasn't and there isn't. So the tool kit had to include Lockdowns. You can take up different positions on timing, extent, guidance vs law, messaging, how policed, economic support, this sort of thing. All perfectly valid and interesting. But you cannot argue that Distancing (via Lockdowns) is not required to fight Covid. The virus spreads less if people keep apart. To say or imply otherwise is anti-science and anti-truth. The people who do it fall into one of only two categories. (i) Know they're lying. Charlatans and Trolls. (ii) Do not know they're lying. Morons.
    Lockdowns are only necessary if other measures have failed.

    Had we had mandatory hotel quarantines in the summer when cases were nearly eradicated in parts of the country then its entirely possible the virus would have been eliminated and there wouldn't have been a second wave.
    Yes, in March last year we concentrated on locking down the domestic population when what we should have done is focused on banning flights, etc.
    In March it was fair enough actually. The community transmission in March was domestic and there weren't any flights happening really in March either. Between March and May next to nobody arrived in the country during lockdown.

    The mistake was lifting lockdown in May and having flights restart - and now not learning the lessons.

    A ban on flights and introduction of quarantine now won't have much immediate impact, but it will pay major dividends in the future. It should be the final restriction lifted as we get back to normal - having children unable to go to school but Piers Moron able to go to Ibiza (or wherever he went) is not right.
  • I've just got an email from noreply@test-for-coronavirus.service.gov.uk confirming an appointment to a Covid19 test, with today's date, a time, an address and a QR Code.

    Only issue is I haven't booked a test. The name is right, but the date of birth is not mine - and the address of the appointment is a post code in Northern Ireland.

    Doesn't look like a scam, looks like someone of my name has put in the wrong email perhaps? Can't see any way to report it as incorrect. Would it be best to just ignore it, or is there a way to let someone appropriate know this is wrong? I'm not going over to Northern Ireland for a test I didn't book.

    Definitely coming from that address? Not being spoofed?
    I got my invite for a jab last night. Text came from NHS-noreply, but to book the test I had to go to a site called www.my-health book.co.uk which looked a bit dodgy to me. However, it turns out to be kosher, and proved reasonably easy to use EXCEPT.... when I tried to enter my date of birth, rather than letting me type it in dd/mmm/yyyy format, it popped up a calendars defaulted to yesterday's date and I had to scroll the damn thing back through 70 years to get to enter my DOB. Arrrgh.
  • I love the new claim by all these z-listers, we aren't on holiday, we have moved here....
  • I love the new claim by all these z-listers, we aren't on holiday, we have moved here....

    If they stay there then fair enough.

    If they move back a fortnight later . . .
  • Nigelb said:

    A reminder of one of our government's grosser failures.

    https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1355189204213522435

    ‘less valuable’
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    I would hate to be a spokesperson. Maybe it is not so bad in the moment, but it just seems so unsatisfying to have to come up with and parrot nonsense for your party/country/business.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021

    I love the new claim by all these z-listers, we aren't on holiday, we have moved here....

    If they stay there then fair enough.

    If they move back a fortnight later . . .
    I reckon lots will stay until March / April, because for most little point coming back to UK when under lockdown. And they will claim that they didn't like being out there permanently, were homesick and so returned or some such bollocks.
  • Btw, just got my notification for the jab - tomorrow in Cheltenham at 3.00 pm.

    I mention this not just so that you can all rejoice that your favorite poster will soon become very much safer but so you can judge for yourself how soon you too may be receiving it. I'm 72 with no serious underlying conditions apart from chronic baldness and verbal diarrhoea. My impression is that Gloucestershire is one of the better counties on rollout but probably not by much and in the context of a brilliant vaccine and rollout performance nationally even average would be very good indeed.

    You cannot imagine how pleased and grateful I am to all the many responsible.

    I got an appointment last night after being prompted by a fellow commenter to ignore the bit of the website that says wait until you get a letter and just put my NHS number into this website: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination/

    I now have appointments for both the first and second jabs.
    If anyone else thinks they should have had an appointment by now give it a go.
  • I've just got an email from noreply@test-for-coronavirus.service.gov.uk confirming an appointment to a Covid19 test, with today's date, a time, an address and a QR Code.

    Only issue is I haven't booked a test. The name is right, but the date of birth is not mine - and the address of the appointment is a post code in Northern Ireland.

    Doesn't look like a scam, looks like someone of my name has put in the wrong email perhaps? Can't see any way to report it as incorrect. Would it be best to just ignore it, or is there a way to let someone appropriate know this is wrong? I'm not going over to Northern Ireland for a test I didn't book.

    Definitely coming from that address? Not being spoofed?
    I got my invite for a jab last night. Text came from NHS-noreply, but to book the test I had to go to a site called www.my-health book.co.uk which looked a bit dodgy to me. However, it turns out to be kosher, and proved reasonably easy to use EXCEPT.... when I tried to enter my date of birth, rather than letting me type it in dd/mmm/yyyy format, it popped up a calendars defaulted to yesterday's date and I had to scroll the damn thing back through 70 years to get to enter my DOB. Arrrgh.
    I do wish NHS/PHE were clearer about this. We seem to be repeatedly told that those due a jab will get a letter and then we keep hearing about people being sent texts.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:
    You have to wonder: HOW stupid?

    Yes, you can have AZ product from UK facilities. Once the UK contracts have been met.

    Not before.
    That does not seem to be quite correct.
    AZN appears to have provided UvdL with a small figleaf, which no doubt will be presented as a triumph on her part.

    Covid: EU and AstraZeneca in 'step forward' on vaccines
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55879345
    Except, 8 million of those 9 million were on offer before the EU Commission decided to engage Bezerker mode.
    Doesn't prevent presentation as a triumph.

    I just don't get it - if anyone knows the value of a firm but icily polite approach it is the EU.
  • This is the new spin...

    Most countries in Africa haven’t started vaccination programmes, which puts the recent political row over access to jabs in Europe into perspective.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    @Philip_Thompson

    If you can contact the NHS to warn them, do, as they will send the results to that email address and that’s a data breach.

    It is the right email address (I just checked it against the one I got a couple of months back).

    This info should cover it:

    https://faq.covid19.nhs.uk/article/KA-01311/en-us

    Nuisance for you, but I don’t suppose you want to get dragged into a row about medical records.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited February 2021

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Would any of us accept that answer from politician X we dislike? I doubt it.
    Yes apart from the pope being infallible bit of course. We made a mistake and are correcting it generally improves a politicians standing in my eyes. In the specific case they are not doing enough to correct it yet so it doesnt hold but generally it is better than feeding us with tenuous spin after a mistake.
    I would do, but I don't think they have really admitted they made a mistake. They sought to get around that with their talk of inadvertence and poor drafting. That is not a plausible explanation for a major diplomatic issue. A decision was considered and made, and then thankfully retracted, but decisions like that don't happen as a result of a rogue paragraph slipping through the process somewhere.

    So while I agree with your sentiment I think they are definitely still feeding tenuous spin. That Bloomberg piece on events on how the decisions happen, eg going through the President's office, looks pretty plausible, certainly more than 'drafting'.

    The idea this could happen with poor drafting and lack of care from...someone, is worse than the Commission deciding to do it, then realising that was a mistake.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477

    "Mistakes can 'appen you know" says Ursula von der Layen’s chief spokesman Eric Mamer....

    Triggering A16 isn't like putting your coffee cup on top of the car and forgetting about it when driving off.

    It is a bit like that to be fair.
  • Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Mollusc exporting bloke says:

    “This is not a teething issue, this is the government removing all our teeth and leaving us unable to eat”.

    He added: “This is not new EU policy. This has always been there.

    “This is the government not doing their job to safeguard the industry”.

    “Before December 31 we were in the EU and DEFRA was responsible for policing imports from third countries. Now we are out of the EU how come it is only now we are told of the situation. It’s like saying a policeman who’s been on the beat for the last 50 years didn’t know the law”.

    'Government' = UKG.

    Probably a bloke bribed to say this by the SNP in some non defined way.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    What makes you think that economic consequences are linked to the lockdowns - other than post hoc ergo propter hoc, of course?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021
    A consortium including the former New York Times chief executive Mark Thompson and the former Financial Times editor Lionel Barber has backed a management buyout of the New European, the anti-Brexit weekly founded in the aftermath of the 2016 referendum.

    The magazine’s production budget of £6,500 an issue will immediately rise by 50%, the BBC’s report said.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2021/feb/01/the-new-european-bought-consortium-including-ex-bbc-boss

    That will be nice for Scott and the handful of other readers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:
    You have to wonder: HOW stupid?

    Yes, you can have AZ product from UK facilities. Once the UK contracts have been met.

    Not before.
    That does not seem to be quite correct.
    AZN appears to have provided UvdL with a small figleaf, which no doubt will be presented as a triumph on her part.

    Covid: EU and AstraZeneca in 'step forward' on vaccines
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55879345
    Except, 8 million of those 9 million were on offer before the EU Commission decided to engage Bezerker mode.
    Doesn't prevent presentation as a triumph.

    I just don't get it - if anyone knows the value of a firm but icily polite approach it is the EU.
    From what I can gather, it's the first time UvdL has been caught in charge of a mess that she created. Probably goes some way to explaining the headless chicken impersonation.
  • kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Floater said:
    You have to wonder: HOW stupid?

    Yes, you can have AZ product from UK facilities. Once the UK contracts have been met.

    Not before.
    That does not seem to be quite correct.
    AZN appears to have provided UvdL with a small figleaf, which no doubt will be presented as a triumph on her part.

    Covid: EU and AstraZeneca in 'step forward' on vaccines
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55879345
    Except, 8 million of those 9 million were on offer before the EU Commission decided to engage Bezerker mode.
    Doesn't prevent presentation as a triumph.

    I just don't get it - if anyone knows the value of a firm but icily polite approach it is the EU.
    Well that's exactly what HMG has done over the past week isn't it? Its worked too.

    Easier to be firm but icily polite when you hold all the cards jabs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    This is the new spin...

    Most countries in Africa haven’t started vaccination programmes, which puts the recent political row over access to jabs in Europe into perspective.

    Well, to an extent it does.

    But it also reminds me of Peter Hain’s infamous defence of Anglesey’s cratering economy, ‘does the honourable member accept that compared to Rwanda and most other countries people in Wales are well off?’
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    "Mistakes can 'appen you know" says Ursula von der Layen’s chief spokesman Eric Mamer....

    Triggering A16 isn't like putting your coffee cup on top of the car and forgetting about it when driving off.

    It is a bit like that to be fair.
    Mistakes at work - I can think of one that involved someone (not working for my company, thank god) who created a clever solution to a corruption problem in early 90s Russia.

    To be fair, it did work. And eliminated corruption with respect to that company for years, if the stories are true.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    felix said:

    kamski said:

    felix said:

    kamski said:

    felix said:

    kamski said:

    Good Header. The EU commission has been rubbish. And, from a German perspective, Merkel has seemingly been absent, as she has been throughout this pandemic. I would have expected a bit more leadership from the German chancellor.

    From a wider perspective, and ignoring the current spat which I suspect will have little effect on the vaccination rollout (though obviously damaging to relationships and the Commission's reputation), how would things be if there had been no EU vaccine procurement? I guess some countries would have done better, others worse, but either way we'd probably have a massive mess with neighboring countries arguing over whose orders should be reduced the least.

    It makes sense for Britain to do its own thing being an island. It also makes sense for Britain to try and get the whole island of Ireland vaccinated, as that is where the only UK land border is.

    I wouldn't expect the UK to offer spare vaccines to the rest of the EU, though a gesture might be worth it as a way to try to get the UK included back into the "European solidarity" which it people think it has withdrawn itself from.

    If I hear the crap about 'solidarity' one more time. There is no issue with the EU scheme other than it has chosen to replace speed and variety at slightly higher cost with bureaucracy and delay at every possible juncture. Even had things gone smoothly the response has been slow. They have added to this the nasty little swipes against a vaccine purely because of its supposed 'english ' links providing fuel for anti-vax sentiment in an already sceptical population. Less slogans please and more action. Take your solidarity and place it where the sun cannot reach!
    European solidarity is a real thing, though it might be misused. I have noticed its existence, even if you haven't. So you can stick your narrowminded blindness wherever you like.

    Lots of people feel that they are part of a European "family" and that the UK has chosen to leave. That is just how people feel. TBH most people are not very interested in what happens in the UK, which I think is a pity, but that is how it is now.
    European solidarity is a sentiment. The vaccination shambles is a matter of life and death.
    And? Did you even read my first post, or did you just see the words "European solidarity" and go to pieces?
    Not at all - I made the point that slogans do not vaccinations give and offended your sensibility. Job done.
    "Not at all" to reading the post? I assume you didn't read this one very carefully, as you didn't notice it was an "or" question.

    Why would "offending my sensibility" be job done? surprised you care about my sensibility.

    But you are right that slogans do not give vaccinations (duh). I wonder why you think anyone thinks they do. I have never used the words "European solidarity" in relation to the EU's vaccine failures.

    I realise that for many British people the idea of "European solidarity" is so alien that they can't conceive of it even if they live in Spain, but my actual point (in relation to earlier discussion of what the UK should do when it has spare vaccine) was that it might be in the UK's interest to be seen as part of the European family by people on the continent rather than a hostile neighbour - more like Switzerland is seen than Russia.

    Personally, I think there are better arguments for giving any spare jabs to the poorest countries. But I guess that by the time the UK has enough spare capacity to make a significant difference the supply crunch in the EU will be over so the argument is probably moot - except in the case of Ireland where a couple of million doses would make a massive difference and the border is an issue.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600

    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Yep, difficult to disagree with any of that.

    I do wonder, however, if it is just possible that those who were so convinced that the EU were the adults, the reasonable ones whose views and positions should be given unstinting respect and deference through the long and tedious Brexit saga are taking the opportunity to reflect. It turns out that the EU is not an institution of laws after all. It is a bureaucratic mess, slow and incompetent, with a massive democratic deficit who cannot be relied upon to respect the views of its members (in this case Ireland and Art 16).

    Thank the lord we are out of it. Now let's move on together and make the best of our own path.

    As I keep pointing out, there is a world of difference between the EU pooing the bed over their vaccine fiasco and the EU stating a core negotiating position that the UK refused to accept. Nor are the EU the reason why we have chosen to leave the EEA. From the EU's self-imposed idiocy to our own - a wine importer whose business cannot function under the rules the UK government demanded be imposed.

    Some of the responses are quite funny as well. "Can't you import wine from elsewhere?" No - it doesn't exist. ROW doesn't produce anywhere near enough wine to replace EU volume. Err, "they need our customs. can't the frogs tell Macron to change his rules?" No, these are our rules. Insisted on by the UK government.

    https://twitter.com/DanielLambert29/status/1355437505642975233
    Your constant posting of anti brexit stories is rather pointless even more so after these last few days

    We are not going back so business will have to adapt
    I think we know that. The actual issue at the moment (if you read the tweets) is the paperwork requirements are making low volume imports impossible.

    Importing a container with a single product on it not a problem - 1 set of paperwork required.
    Start importing different product within a single container and the problems start to occur - as you need 1 set of paperwork per product and any 1 mistake on single form is enough to block the whole container from moving.
    Start splitting pallets into smaller orders and real problems begin. Remember 1 mistake blocks the entire container

    We've spent 30+ years with paperwork free exports and imports from the EU. The introduction of paperwork (a lot of which HMRC have zero people who understand it) is making things impossible. And Covid is sweeping this under the table.

    Now things will get easier - but they will get easier by people reducing the products they import and export - so less paperwork is required and less paperwork is the only way to avoid mistakes occurring.
    So people will adjust. That's not impossible.

    If people don't want to adjust, especially people with EU flags in their Twitter handle, that's on them not politics.

    The idea it is "impossible" to import wines from outside of a customs union would be a strange thought to anyone who likes New World wines.
    Thanks for again demonstrating your ignorance on the subject. I am not remotely interested in wine, but I was interested in the response to someone else who made the same point you did. The production volume of New World wine cannot possibly replace the volume lost from not being able to import viably from the EEA - the wine simply doesn't exist in anywhere near sufficient volume to be imported as a replacement.

    So yes, its impossible to replace wine that doesn't exist.
    The total production of wine in 2018 for the whole world was 292 million hecto litres or 292 billion litres.
    The eu produced last year 14 billion litres of wine.....the idea that the rest of the world doesnt produce enough wine to to replace the 4 billion litres we import is ....odd
    I think you are out by a factor of 10 on the meaning of hectolitre.
    Lo! And so a clever PB'er spots his gross error.

    A very useful behaviour to adopt - and to encourage in others - is, before doing any calculation, take a rough guess as to what the answer might be. It'll prevent those embarrassments where you cock up an Excel formula and come up with a dumb answer, which you share with others because it came out of the computer and so must be true.

    In the long run it'll also make you better at guessing.
    a hecto litre is 100 litres yes? so a figure of 292 million hectolitres - 292,000,000 x 100 ah yes 29.2 doh its early
    That was hard work.
    Well perhaps if someone had just said you have the decimal point in the wrong place rather than just saying no you are wrong without giving a reason why...always happy to go recheck a calculation because we all make mistakes
    That you had made a mistake was obvious - and should have been to you. That's the learning point. It's not our job to work out why you went wrong.
    I was once out in a calculation (that I submitted) by 68 orders of magnitude: it can be easily done if you are in a hurry.
    "Dear Guiness Book of Records...."

    Can't imagine that being beaten - other than in calaculating the number of atoms in the Universe.
  • HYUFD said:

    A May election cycle with no traditional campaigning allowed will be a fascinating experiment. I've been increasingly of the view that digital is taking over from traditional leafleting so proving that people are organised that shouldn't be a dramatic impediment.

    By April traditional leafleting should be allowed again, maybe even canvassing too though in the meantime social media and digital campaigning will be key yes.

    However digital campaigning often tends to just reach those who follow you anyway unless you have an expensive marketing campaign, you still need leaflets to reach the rest and pensioners particularly who are less likely to regularly be online.

    You also still need traditional GOTV on polling day
    btw the local council has just sent me notification of the GLA & London Mayor election on the 6th of May with a guide to postal or proxy voting just in case. I am inclined to vote in person but might take my own pencil.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,240

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    What @Big_G_NorthWales seems oblivious to is that I am not arguing to rejoin the EU - that ship has sailed. What I am arguing - with evidence - is that the rules insisted on by the UK government have brought a significant number of industries to a stand.

    Brexit - leaving the EU - did not have to bring self-harm to our status as a global trading nation. Our government could have understood both how trade worked and the areas where the rules it blindly insisted would be fine would not be fine. Instead we have this.

    "We are not going back so business will have to adapt". In the case of the wine industry it will adapt by closing down. The other story I ready this morning was from major Norniron logistics firm McCulla, reporting in detail how the new rules has brought their industry to its knees. These companies will close without either rapid changes or long-term support. They "will have to adapt" by closing down.

    The new rules are unworkable. And this is the false dawn before we stop breaching WTO rules and start imposing them fully. They will either need to be renegotiated or we will see chunks of our economic output simply stop. That isn't an argument to rejoin the EU, its an argument to negotiate a trading deal that works.

    Sadly people like Big G never understood the difference between the EU and EEA. It is our departure from the latter which has so broken the food and drink industry.

    If they're so unworkable then how do we have so many New World wines available to drink? Is the old world seriously so sclerotic that we face a future of only New World wines if we're not in the EEA? Because I'm 100% OK with that even if that happens, but I don't believe it for one second.

    I think that's going to far and too unfair on the EU there, I don't believe its really that sclerotic as to be impossible to deal with - and that's coming from me!
    @Philip_Thompson are you in the wine trade now?

    The issue is not that there isn't enough wine in the rest of the world, it's just that that wine is already being sold elsewhere and isn't available for us to buy.

    1-3 years time the market will have adjusted and we may be in a position to buy more wine from the RoW but for the moment the RoW production is being produced for the pre-existing markets and is (probably) given how most markets work already presold elsewhere.
    Have you never heard of the concepts of Supply and Demand?

    Prices may change, contracts may change, but the idea it is literally "impossible" to import wine whether from the EU or the Rest of the World is a lie.

    Harder to import EU wine? I believe that.
    More expensive to import EU wine? I believe that.
    Impossible to import EU wine? Lie, lie, lie.

    Impossible doesn't mean a touch more expensive or there's more paperwork.
    The correct price of anything is the price someone is willing to pay for it.

    If the price of importing is higher than many consumers are willing to pay for it, the economics of businesses importing them is no longer viable. Its *possible* to import at a price that not enough consumers are prepared to pay. So it doesn't get imported.

    I can sketch this with crayons if you like. Its called "adding". The ape-men of the Indus understand this, you and Baldrick apparently do not.
    Are you trying to explain the concept of Supply and Demand to me? After I already mentioned it? 🤔

    It may be possible to set an import price that no imports will happen. That's not going to happen though.

    What may happen is that there is a marginal price change, so some things will be marginally more expensive, which means marginally less trade. That is supply and demand, that is not an impossibility to trade though.
    £1.50 for paperwork on a £7 bottle of wine isn't marginal. Heck even on a £15 bottle of wine that isn't marginal.
    You can get New World bottles of wine for £4 (£3.33+VAT) in the supermarket.

    Are you suggesting that 50% of the price of the wine is the paperwork. Or is it possible to do the paperwork for less than £1.50 per bottle - eg if you buy a large shipment instead of a small one?
    I thought you were an expert on wine?

    The reality is that most New World wine now is shipped in tanks and bottled in the UK...

    Those tanks are of course already used 24/7 365 days of the year so are not immediately available for new imports.
    Yes, that's surely the kind of innovation we'll see for EU wines as well, it's better for the environment too as you're no longer transporting heavy glass bottles by truck.

    I think the government made a huge mistake in not having a 12 month deal implementation period where businesses had time to digest the new rules and switch to new import and export methods over the year.
    LOL x2.

    "Shipped in tanks and bottled in the UK"?

    For the wine sold by small, independent wine merchants?

    Dear god Max don't jump on this bandwagon.
    An alternative would be importing it by the barrel, and filling it into carafes in-store. I'm not suggesting this is a blanket solution by the way, but it is something that I think will become increasingly popular regardless of import regulations.
    I don't see that happening until we have circs that make the Lockdown Hokey-Cokey less likely.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    HYUFD said:

    A May election cycle with no traditional campaigning allowed will be a fascinating experiment. I've been increasingly of the view that digital is taking over from traditional leafleting so proving that people are organised that shouldn't be a dramatic impediment.

    By April traditional leafleting should be allowed again, maybe even canvassing too though in the meantime social media and digital campaigning will be key yes.

    However digital campaigning often tends to just reach those who follow you anyway unless you have an expensive marketing campaign, you still need leaflets to reach the rest and pensioners particularly who are less likely to regularly be online.

    You also still need traditional GOTV on polling day
    btw the local council has just sent me notification of the GLA & London Mayor election on the 6th of May with a guide to postal or proxy voting just in case. I am inclined to vote in person but might take my own pencil.
    Gloves as well, so you don’t have to touch the ballot paper? I expect everyone will be told to wear a mask.
  • https://twitter.com/amolrajan/status/1356165470420930567

    Astonished to learn from this thread that the New European actually makes a small profit.
  • ydoethur said:

    @Philip_Thompson

    If you can contact the NHS to warn them, do, as they will send the results to that email address and that’s a data breach.

    It is the right email address (I just checked it against the one I got a couple of months back).

    This info should cover it:

    https://faq.covid19.nhs.uk/article/KA-01311/en-us

    Nuisance for you, but I don’t suppose you want to get dragged into a row about medical records.

    Thanks.

    I've sent in a report to that webpage. I've done my best at dealing with it now at least.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    This whole debate is a crock of shit. It's not Lockdowns that depress Covid it's Distancing. If there was a way to get the same Distancing without Lockdown then Lockdown would not be needed. But in the society we live in - being this one rather than one cooked up in the imagination - there wasn't and there isn't. So the tool kit had to include Lockdowns. You can take up different positions on timing, extent, guidance vs law, messaging, how policed, economic support, this sort of thing. All perfectly valid and interesting. But you cannot argue that Distancing (via Lockdowns) is not required to fight Covid. The virus spreads less if people keep apart. To say or imply otherwise is anti-science and anti-truth. The people who do it fall into one of only two categories. (i) Know they're lying. Charlatans and Trolls. (ii) Do not know they're lying. Morons.
    No, you're misdiagnosing the problem just like all westerners. The APAC approach has been to have tough isolation measures for people who test positive and rapid follow up testing of everyone they've been in contact with. Lockdowns should be used as a last resort, measure not as a substitution for proper isolation measures.

    The virus spreads because people who have it come into contact with people who don't have it, stopping that is the key do defeating it, lockdowns are the most destructive way to do it.
    I'm not misdiagnosing the problem. I've also made those points in other posts. Stricter and earlier border controls, a much tighter test trace & isolate process, both these things would have helped enormously. But the lockdown "sceptics" my post was aimed at do not deal in those realities and trade offs. They persist in the myth that lockdowns were not needed in the situation we were in. Which is pernicious bullshit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    felix said:
    When it comes to denial, VDL has, for a long time, lived on a houseboat on Lake Victoria.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    felix said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted. The Chief Political Correspondent for Germany's biggest newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1356149484783366145?s=20

    Someone was muttering something about 'solidarity' earlier...
    For some reason the catastrofuck of the EU vaccine negotiation keeps being used as proof that we were right to leave the EEA. I don't get it, unless like Big G they don't know the difference.
    I think the EEA problem may be 'free movement' - not a problem for me but a biggy for those who voted Leave.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021

    https://twitter.com/amolrajan/status/1356165470420930567

    Astonished to learn from this thread that the New European actually makes a small profit.

    There is some heavy spin on that announcement, their circulation is down. They used to do 25-30k per issue. Now they say its 17k, but nobody can check as no independent circulation figures anymore...so that could be the peak they have done the past year.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,240
    Ouch:

    Portugal reports nearly half its total death toll in January
    Portugal reported nearly half of its total coronavirus death toll during January, underlining the rapid worsening of the pandemic as officials blamed the UK variant and relaxation of restrictions over Christmas for the surge.

    The country had largely been spared by the first waves of the virus.

    In January, a total of 5,576 people died from the coronavirus, representing 44.7% of all 12,482 fatalities since the virus began spreading in the Iberian country in March 2020, data from health authority DGS reported by Reuters showed. Portugal has the world’s biggest seven-day rolling average of new daily cases per capita, according to ourworldindata.org.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    What makes you think that economic consequences are linked to the lockdowns - other than post hoc ergo propter hoc, of course?
    The handling of the pandemic by certain state Governors has been horrendous. I see that the preening Cuomo, he of the Emmy award, is being ripped to shreds both for the way he has dealt with care homes deaths and for his response to a damning report which was essentially to say "who gives a f*ck". Newsom in California has managed to deal with things similarly badly.
  • felix said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted. The Chief Political Correspondent for Germany's biggest newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1356149484783366145?s=20

    Someone was muttering something about 'solidarity' earlier...
    For some reason the catastrofuck of the EU vaccine negotiation keeps being used as proof that we were right to leave the EEA. I don't get it, unless like Big G they don't know the difference.
    I think the EEA problem may be 'free movement' - not a problem for me but a biggy for those who voted Leave.
    Considering that the EEA is outside of the Customs Union and deals with customs paperwork too which is what RP keeps complaining about - I'm not convinced he understands the difference either.

    EEA+CU doesn't exist. Well it does, its called EU membership.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    It occurs to me that if we postponed the locals a month one possible way forward could be to vote outside in gazebos. It should be warm enough, although it being the UK it wouldn’t be guaranteed to be dry.

    Might be worth a shot, anyway.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    This whole debate is a crock of shit. It's not Lockdowns that depress Covid it's Distancing. If there was a way to get the same Distancing without Lockdown then Lockdown would not be needed. But in the society we live in - being this one rather than one cooked up in the imagination - there wasn't and there isn't. So the tool kit had to include Lockdowns. You can take up different positions on timing, extent, guidance vs law, messaging, how policed, economic support, this sort of thing. All perfectly valid and interesting. But you cannot argue that Distancing (via Lockdowns) is not required to fight Covid. The virus spreads less if people keep apart. To say or imply otherwise is anti-science and anti-truth. The people who do it fall into one of only two categories. (i) Know they're lying. Charlatans and Trolls. (ii) Do not know they're lying. Morons.
    What do you mean by "the society we live in" — that people are irresponsible compared to places like Taiwan?
    No, I didn't mean that specifically. I just meant the UK, in all its facets, as it was at the time of the March lockdown and the later ones.
  • "Only the Pope is infallible"

    Someone have a word.
  • https://twitter.com/amolrajan/status/1356165470420930567

    Astonished to learn from this thread that the New European actually makes a small profit.

    Remoan Central v. Brillo’s Gammon Broadcasting; the divisions are mustering in the culture war.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    This whole debate is a crock of shit. It's not Lockdowns that depress Covid it's Distancing. If there was a way to get the same Distancing without Lockdown then Lockdown would not be needed. But in the society we live in - being this one rather than one cooked up in the imagination - there wasn't and there isn't. So the tool kit had to include Lockdowns. You can take up different positions on timing, extent, guidance vs law, messaging, how policed, economic support, this sort of thing. All perfectly valid and interesting. But you cannot argue that Distancing (via Lockdowns) is not required to fight Covid. The virus spreads less if people keep apart. To say or imply otherwise is anti-science and anti-truth. The people who do it fall into one of only two categories. (i) Know they're lying. Charlatans and Trolls. (ii) Do not know they're lying. Morons.
    Lockdowns are only necessary if other measures have failed.

    Had we had mandatory hotel quarantines in the summer when cases were nearly eradicated in parts of the country then its entirely possible the virus would have been eliminated and there wouldn't have been a second wave.
    Maybe so. And if we could turn the clock right back - close the borders entirely plus a rigorous test trace & isolate regime before the virus got going here in the 1st place.

    What a fantastic decision that would have been. But it's always very hard politically to go out on a limb and contra the herd.
    Indeed.

    But we should do so today to prevent Saffer and other variants coming in. Immediate hotel quarantine for a fortnight for anyone coming in abroad. Only exemption certificates for hauliers and related.

    If that means LFC and others forfeit the Champions League this season then so be it. 😥
    Unlikely to win it anyway, I'd have thought. LFC, I mean.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    ydoethur said:

    It occurs to me that if we postponed the locals a month one possible way forward could be to vote outside in gazebos. It should be warm enough, although it being the UK it wouldn’t be guaranteed to be dry.

    Might be worth a shot, anyway.

    23 June 2016 says hello...
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    What makes you think that economic consequences are linked to the lockdowns - other than post hoc ergo propter hoc, of course?
    Since we are quoting stats by states, here are the unemployment rates for each state. Pretty clear the hardest lockdowns have had the worst effects on UB rates - without seeing a noticeable outperformance when it comes to the death rates.

    https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/lauhsthl.htm
  • felix said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted. The Chief Political Correspondent for Germany's biggest newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1356149484783366145?s=20

    Someone was muttering something about 'solidarity' earlier...
    For some reason the catastrofuck of the EU vaccine negotiation keeps being used as proof that we were right to leave the EEA. I don't get it, unless like Big G they don't know the difference.
    I think the EEA problem may be 'free movement' - not a problem for me but a biggy for those who voted Leave.
    Considering that the EEA is outside of the Customs Union and deals with customs paperwork too which is what RP keeps complaining about - I'm not convinced he understands the difference either.

    EEA+CU doesn't exist. Well it does, its called EU membership.
    Oh luv, the problem at the moment is the ludicrous amount of SPS red tape, none of which would exist if we remained in the EEA.

    Do try and keep up.
  • tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    It occurs to me that if we postponed the locals a month one possible way forward could be to vote outside in gazebos. It should be warm enough, although it being the UK it wouldn’t be guaranteed to be dry.

    Might be worth a shot, anyway.

    23 June 2016 says hello...
    Reasonably warm but soaking wet wasn't it?

    Could potentially have been done in gazebos?
  • Presumably papal infallibility explains why he is not legally permitted to offer tips?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,440
    ydoethur said:

    It occurs to me that if we postponed the locals a month one possible way forward could be to vote outside in gazebos. It should be warm enough, although it being the UK it wouldn’t be guaranteed to be dry.

    Might be worth a shot, anyway.

    It might be that my location is unusual, but I don't think so. Small market town, population about 18,000. Never more that 5 or six people at my polling location. Fitted out with booths already. I don't see an issue with the mechanics of getting the votes done. Campaigning is a different question.
  • felix said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted. The Chief Political Correspondent for Germany's biggest newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1356149484783366145?s=20

    Someone was muttering something about 'solidarity' earlier...
    For some reason the catastrofuck of the EU vaccine negotiation keeps being used as proof that we were right to leave the EEA. I don't get it, unless like Big G they don't know the difference.
    I think the EEA problem may be 'free movement' - not a problem for me but a biggy for those who voted Leave.
    Considering that the EEA is outside of the Customs Union and deals with customs paperwork too which is what RP keeps complaining about - I'm not convinced he understands the difference either.

    EEA+CU doesn't exist. Well it does, its called EU membership.
    Oh luv, the problem at the moment is the ludicrous amount of SPS red tape, none of which would exist if we remained in the EEA.

    Do try and keep up.
    So fill in the SPS and move on.

    You were convinced, absolutely conviced, that customs paperwork was going to bring the border to a crashing halt. It hasn't happened. So now complaints are boiled down to moaning about firms getting used to SPS red tape. Struggling to give a damn about that to be frank. If that's all you've got to complain about it isn't very much.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Dura_Ace said:



    We are not going back so business will have to adapt

    The UK weren't leaving for years until they did. Rejoin is going to take some time to coalesce as a political program but it's going to happen.

    It's worth doing purely on the grounds that tories won't like it.
    There were sceptic movements for four decades, and on the right significant ones for nearly three decades by the time of the referendum.

    Never say never but frankly there's too much water under the bridge in my eyes for rejoin to ever be plausible. For one thing, even if we were to attempt a Hokey Cokey Brexit I don't think they'd take us back. There is a significant attitude in France especially that Charles de Gaulle was right and it was a mistake to let Britain in. I'm sure an independent Scotland would be welcomed back, but the English? No.
    depends when it becomes an actual possibility. the french go through phases when they want us in there to help power-bloc balance with the germans.
    How many decades before you plausibly expect the French will want us back?

    Brexit really is like a divorce and just as we can't go back and expect a blowjob, nor are they pining after us. They're not waiting or eager for us to jump back into the marital bed once more.
    It’s very woke of you to assume Britannia is transgender
  • Andy_JS said:
    And why not? Sputnik has been approved in 16 countries, Sinopharm in 11, and Sinovac in 7. All 3 prevent hospitalisations.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,996
    edited February 2021
    I see the SCons are asking everyone to put independence behind them by employing the novel strategy of using every waking breath to mention independence (plenty of them mumbling the word in their sleep too I’ll bet).
    https://twitter.com/andrewlearmonth/status/1356189937029292035?s=21
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    It occurs to me that if we postponed the locals a month one possible way forward could be to vote outside in gazebos. It should be warm enough, although it being the UK it wouldn’t be guaranteed to be dry.

    Might be worth a shot, anyway.

    23 June 2016 says hello...
    Reasonably warm but soaking wet wasn't it?

    Could potentially have been done in gazebos?
    With the danger of lightning strikes! There was a huge clap of thunder as I left the polling station. It felt very ominous...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eek said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Yep, difficult to disagree with any of that.

    I do wonder, however, if it is just possible that those who were so convinced that the EU were the adults, the reasonable ones whose views and positions should be given unstinting respect and deference through the long and tedious Brexit saga are taking the opportunity to reflect. It turns out that the EU is not an institution of laws after all. It is a bureaucratic mess, slow and incompetent, with a massive democratic deficit who cannot be relied upon to respect the views of its members (in this case Ireland and Art 16).

    Thank the lord we are out of it. Now let's move on together and make the best of our own path.

    As I keep pointing out, there is a world of difference between the EU pooing the bed over their vaccine fiasco and the EU stating a core negotiating position that the UK refused to accept. Nor are the EU the reason why we have chosen to leave the EEA. From the EU's self-imposed idiocy to our own - a wine importer whose business cannot function under the rules the UK government demanded be imposed.

    Some of the responses are quite funny as well. "Can't you import wine from elsewhere?" No - it doesn't exist. ROW doesn't produce anywhere near enough wine to replace EU volume. Err, "they need our customs. can't the frogs tell Macron to change his rules?" No, these are our rules. Insisted on by the UK government.

    https://twitter.com/DanielLambert29/status/1355437505642975233
    Your constant posting of anti brexit stories is rather pointless even more so after these last few days

    We are not going back so business will have to adapt
    I think we know that. The actual issue at the moment (if you read the tweets) is the paperwork requirements are making low volume imports impossible.

    Importing a container with a single product on it not a problem - 1 set of paperwork required.
    Start importing different product within a single container and the problems start to occur - as you need 1 set of paperwork per product and any 1 mistake on single form is enough to block the whole container from moving.
    Start splitting pallets into smaller orders and real problems begin. Remember 1 mistake blocks the entire container

    We've spent 30+ years with paperwork free exports and imports from the EU. The introduction of paperwork (a lot of which HMRC have zero people who understand it) is making things impossible. And Covid is sweeping this under the table.

    Now things will get easier - but they will get easier by people reducing the products they import and export - so less paperwork is required and less paperwork is the only way to avoid mistakes occurring.
    So people will adjust. That's not impossible.

    If people don't want to adjust, especially people with EU flags in their Twitter handle, that's on them not politics.

    The idea it is "impossible" to import wines from outside of a customs union would be a strange thought to anyone who likes New World wines.
    I would go and read the thread - there isn't enough available New World wine to replace the EU imports.

    And the issue is mainly the one I've pointed out all month - why should I continue to purchase from you when other options are easier.

    Which is why the UK is now (note now not back in 2019 when it made sense to do so) telling companies to set up EU subsidiaries so that the paperwork is hidden away internally and stock is sent direct from a warehouse in the EU.
    The tweeter is being very misleading suggesting that all EU wine will have to be replaced and the wine industry is under threat

    In reality *his* business model of short line mixed pallets is under threat. Perhaps he needs to transact via an aggregator - which will come at a cost - but is feasible
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    MrEd said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    What makes you think that economic consequences are linked to the lockdowns - other than post hoc ergo propter hoc, of course?
    Since we are quoting stats by states, here are the unemployment rates for each state. Pretty clear the hardest lockdowns have had the worst effects on UB rates - without seeing a noticeable outperformance when it comes to the death rates.

    https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/lauhsthl.htm
    I read that cases are falling pretty handily even in the states that do not have strict lockdowns. I don;t have the info on how US lockdown varies from state to state though.

    If it transpires there is little difference in case rate movements whatever the severity of the lockdown from state to state, that will take some explaining.

    As I say, awks.

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,240
    edited February 2021

    https://twitter.com/amolrajan/status/1356165470420930567

    Astonished to learn from this thread that the New European actually makes a small profit.

    Remoan Central v. Brillo’s Gammon Broadcasting; the divisions are mustering in the culture war.
    Interesting that Lionel Barber (ex-FT) is involved.

    Interesting piece by Amol Rajan:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55860118

    TNE currently more than washes its face, making £80,000 as a standalone business. But that is based on a shoestring editorial budget of £6,500 per issue, with some costs absorbed by Archant and only three members of staff, including editor Jasper Copping and digital editor Jono Read. That editorial budget will rise by 50 per cent immediately; and Archant will no longer foot the bill for overheads.

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    kamski said:

    felix said:

    kamski said:

    felix said:

    kamski said:

    felix said:

    kamski said:

    Good Header. The EU commission has been rubbish. And, from a German perspective, Merkel has seemingly been absent, as she has been throughout this pandemic. I would have expected a bit more leadership from the German chancellor.

    From a wider perspective, and ignoring the current spat which I suspect will have little effect on the vaccination rollout (though obviously damaging to relationships and the Commission's reputation), how would things be if there had been no EU vaccine procurement? I guess some countries would have done better, others worse, but either way we'd probably have a massive mess with neighboring countries arguing over whose orders should be reduced the least.

    It makes sense for Britain to do its own thing being an island. It also makes sense for Britain to try and get the whole island of Ireland vaccinated, as that is where the only UK land border is.

    I wouldn't expect the UK to offer spare vaccines to the rest of the EU, though a gesture might be worth it as a way to try to get the UK included back into the "European solidarity" which it people think it has withdrawn itself from.

    If I hear the crap about 'solidarity' one more time. There is no issue with the EU scheme other than it has chosen to replace speed and variety at slightly higher cost with bureaucracy and delay at every possible juncture. Even had things gone smoothly the response has been slow. They have added to this the nasty little swipes against a vaccine purely because of its supposed 'english ' links providing fuel for anti-vax sentiment in an already sceptical population. Less slogans please and more action. Take your solidarity and place it where the sun cannot reach!
    European solidarity is a real thing, though it might be misused. I have noticed its existence, even if you haven't. So you can stick your narrowminded blindness wherever you like.

    Lots of people feel that they are part of a European "family" and that the UK has chosen to leave. That is just how people feel. TBH most people are not very interested in what happens in the UK, which I think is a pity, but that is how it is now.
    European solidarity is a sentiment. The vaccination shambles is a matter of life and death.
    And? Did you even read my first post, or did you just see the words "European solidarity" and go to pieces?
    Not at all - I made the point that slogans do not vaccinations give and offended your sensibility. Job done.
    "Not at all" to reading the post? I assume you didn't read this one very carefully, as you didn't notice it was an "or" question.

    Why would "offending my sensibility" be job done? surprised you care about my sensibility.

    But you are right that slogans do not give vaccinations (duh). I wonder why you think anyone thinks they do. I have never used the words "European solidarity" in relation to the EU's vaccine failures.

    I realise that for many British people the idea of "European solidarity" is so alien that they can't conceive of it even if they live in Spain, but my actual point (in relation to earlier discussion of what the UK should do when it has spare vaccine) was that it might be in the UK's interest to be seen as part of the European family by people on the continent rather than a hostile neighbour - more like Switzerland is seen than Russia.

    Personally, I think there are better arguments for giving any spare jabs to the poorest countries. But I guess that by the time the UK has enough spare capacity to make a significant difference the supply crunch in the EU will be over so the argument is probably moot - except in the case of Ireland where a couple of million doses would make a massive difference and the border is an issue.
    I think you misunderstand. I have many, very many Spanish friends where I live. They are not automotons who believe in European solidarity as a 'thing' - they're mostly pretty suspicious of everyone in the next village! They are cynical and suspicious of local/national/european governors - with pretty good reason. My point was that we have heard the 'solidarity' put out continually last week to cover up the vaccine shambles. The EC is flooding Facebook feeds with similar nonsense this week. It is reminiscent of the Soviet Union in the 50s. I voted Remain in 2016 and have had many illusions shattered over this. I also face now a 3/4 month delay at best for a vaccine I'd probably get in a week or so in the UK. I am in a vulnerable group both medically and by age. It is not easy to remain even-tempered under these circumstances but if I was rude can only say - lo siento.
  • Interesting . . .
    https://twitter.com/MartynMcL/status/1356001051527282700

    I wonder how the various MSPs will vote?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted. The Chief Political Correspondent for Germany's biggest newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1356149484783366145?s=20

    Someone was muttering something about 'solidarity' earlier...
    For some reason the catastrofuck of the EU vaccine negotiation keeps being used as proof that we were right to leave the EEA. I don't get it, unless like Big G they don't know the difference.
    I think the EEA problem may be 'free movement' - not a problem for me but a biggy for those who voted Leave.
    Considering that the EEA is outside of the Customs Union and deals with customs paperwork too which is what RP keeps complaining about - I'm not convinced he understands the difference either.

    EEA+CU doesn't exist. Well it does, its called EU membership.
    Oh luv, the problem at the moment is the ludicrous amount of SPS red tape, none of which would exist if we remained in the EEA.

    Do try and keep up.
    Had my first 'none available' of the year over the weekend.

    No fresh Kaffir Lime Leaves to be had for ready money at my local supermarket....
  • MattW said:

    https://twitter.com/amolrajan/status/1356165470420930567

    Astonished to learn from this thread that the New European actually makes a small profit.

    Remoan Central v. Brillo’s Gammon Broadcasting; the divisions are mustering in the culture war.
    Interesting that Lionel Barber (ex-FT) is involved.

    Interesting piece by Amol Rajan:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55860118

    TNE currently more than washes its face, making £80,000 as a standalone business. But that is based on a shoestring editorial budget of £6,500 per issue, with some costs absorbed by Archant and only three members of staff, including editor Jasper Copping and digital editor Jono Read. That editorial budget will rise by 50 per cent immediately; and Archant will no longer foot the bill for overheads.

    Its making a profit . . . if you don't include overheads (!?)

    You can't just exclude overheads and claim you've made a profit.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,588

    Andy_JS said:
    And why not? Sputnik has been approved in 16 countries, Sinopharm in 11, and Sinovac in 7. All 3 prevent hospitalisations.
    It isn't good to rely on authoritarian dictatorships for something so important.
  • felix said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted. The Chief Political Correspondent for Germany's biggest newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1356149484783366145?s=20

    Someone was muttering something about 'solidarity' earlier...
    For some reason the catastrofuck of the EU vaccine negotiation keeps being used as proof that we were right to leave the EEA. I don't get it, unless like Big G they don't know the difference.
    I think the EEA problem may be 'free movement' - not a problem for me but a biggy for those who voted Leave.
    Considering that the EEA is outside of the Customs Union and deals with customs paperwork too which is what RP keeps complaining about - I'm not convinced he understands the difference either.

    EEA+CU doesn't exist. Well it does, its called EU membership.
    Oh luv, the problem at the moment is the ludicrous amount of SPS red tape, none of which would exist if we remained in the EEA.

    Do try and keep up.
    So fill in the SPS and move on.

    You were convinced, absolutely conviced, that customs paperwork was going to bring the border to a crashing halt. It hasn't happened. So now complaints are boiled down to moaning about firms getting used to SPS red tape. Struggling to give a damn about that to be frank. If that's all you've got to complain about it isn't very much.
    Wowsers. To everyone with eyes and a brain the border has been reduced to this uncomfortable quiet where there's only a fraction of normal traffic and half of that is empty vehicles.

    You remember Multiplicity? You need to be like Michael Keaton. Go clone yourself. Then you can go and fix all the problems by a combination of "nope, no problem here", "market forces", "go buy something else" or some other fantastic solution.

    Go on Philip. Go clone yourself.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    It occurs to me that if we postponed the locals a month one possible way forward could be to vote outside in gazebos. It should be warm enough, although it being the UK it wouldn’t be guaranteed to be dry.

    Might be worth a shot, anyway.

    23 June 2016 says hello...
    Reasonably warm but soaking wet wasn't it?

    Could potentially have been done in gazebos?
    With the danger of lightning strikes! There was a huge clap of thunder as I left the polling station. It felt very ominous...
    I remember Joff's commute home was disrupted by weather - think he made it by minutes. As I recall, it was PB at its best as everyone was rooting for him to make it to the polling station on time!
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    It occurs to me that if we postponed the locals a month one possible way forward could be to vote outside in gazebos. It should be warm enough, although it being the UK it wouldn’t be guaranteed to be dry.

    Might be worth a shot, anyway.

    23 June 2016 says hello...
    Reasonably warm but soaking wet wasn't it?

    Could potentially have been done in gazebos?
    With the danger of lightning strikes! There was a huge clap of thunder as I left the polling station. It felt very ominous...
    I seem to recall rather glorious sunny weather the next morning though.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    It occurs to me that if we postponed the locals a month one possible way forward could be to vote outside in gazebos. It should be warm enough, although it being the UK it wouldn’t be guaranteed to be dry.

    Might be worth a shot, anyway.

    23 June 2016 says hello...
    Reasonably warm but soaking wet wasn't it?

    Could potentially have been done in gazebos?
    With the danger of lightning strikes! There was a huge clap of thunder as I left the polling station. It felt very ominous...
    I seem to recall rather glorious sunny weather the next morning though.
    A new dawn had broken, had it not?
  • I see the SCons are asking everyone to put independence behind them by employing the novel strategy of using every waking breath to mention independence (plenty of them mumbling the word in their sleep too I’ll bet).
    https://twitter.com/andrewlearmonth/status/1356189937029292035?s=21

    Its very odd. We know for a Fact that there cannot possibly be a threat from Independence because the Tories are in Power and the PM Won't Allow It and there'll be Barbed Wire.

    So no threat at all and the people talking about should just be ignored or better still told their views are irrelevant regardless of how they vote. And yet instead here we are, wanting to *debate* like its actually possible that independence could be on the agenda.

    Calling @HYUFD to explain why the leader of the SCons has got it so very wrong.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted. The Chief Political Correspondent for Germany's biggest newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1356149484783366145?s=20

    Someone was muttering something about 'solidarity' earlier...
    For some reason the catastrofuck of the EU vaccine negotiation keeps being used as proof that we were right to leave the EEA. I don't get it, unless like Big G they don't know the difference.
    I think the EEA problem may be 'free movement' - not a problem for me but a biggy for those who voted Leave.
    Considering that the EEA is outside of the Customs Union and deals with customs paperwork too which is what RP keeps complaining about - I'm not convinced he understands the difference either.

    EEA+CU doesn't exist. Well it does, its called EU membership.
    Oh luv, the problem at the moment is the ludicrous amount of SPS red tape, none of which would exist if we remained in the EEA.

    Do try and keep up.
    So fill in the SPS and move on.

    You were convinced, absolutely conviced, that customs paperwork was going to bring the border to a crashing halt. It hasn't happened. So now complaints are boiled down to moaning about firms getting used to SPS red tape. Struggling to give a damn about that to be frank. If that's all you've got to complain about it isn't very much.
    Wowsers. To everyone with eyes and a brain the border has been reduced to this uncomfortable quiet where there's only a fraction of normal traffic and half of that is empty vehicles.

    You remember Multiplicity? You need to be like Michael Keaton. Go clone yourself. Then you can go and fix all the problems by a combination of "nope, no problem here", "market forces", "go buy something else" or some other fantastic solution.

    Go on Philip. Go clone yourself.
    I'm sure it has reduced as you say. You did also say that we would have food shortages - particularly in fresh produce. Is that still your prediction? Update: supermarket shelves in my part of Scotland's snowy wastes are still very much groaning with fresh produce.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,680
    edited February 2021
    Charles said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Yep, difficult to disagree with any of that.

    I do wonder, however, if it is just possible that those who were so convinced that the EU were the adults, the reasonable ones whose views and positions should be given unstinting respect and deference through the long and tedious Brexit saga are taking the opportunity to reflect. It turns out that the EU is not an institution of laws after all. It is a bureaucratic mess, slow and incompetent, with a massive democratic deficit who cannot be relied upon to respect the views of its members (in this case Ireland and Art 16).

    Thank the lord we are out of it. Now let's move on together and make the best of our own path.

    As I keep pointing out, there is a world of difference between the EU pooing the bed over their vaccine fiasco and the EU stating a core negotiating position that the UK refused to accept. Nor are the EU the reason why we have chosen to leave the EEA. From the EU's self-imposed idiocy to our own - a wine importer whose business cannot function under the rules the UK government demanded be imposed.

    Some of the responses are quite funny as well. "Can't you import wine from elsewhere?" No - it doesn't exist. ROW doesn't produce anywhere near enough wine to replace EU volume. Err, "they need our customs. can't the frogs tell Macron to change his rules?" No, these are our rules. Insisted on by the UK government.

    https://twitter.com/DanielLambert29/status/1355437505642975233
    Your constant posting of anti brexit stories is rather pointless even more so after these last few days

    We are not going back so business will have to adapt
    I think we know that. The actual issue at the moment (if you read the tweets) is the paperwork requirements are making low volume imports impossible.

    Importing a container with a single product on it not a problem - 1 set of paperwork required.
    Start importing different product within a single container and the problems start to occur - as you need 1 set of paperwork per product and any 1 mistake on single form is enough to block the whole container from moving.
    Start splitting pallets into smaller orders and real problems begin. Remember 1 mistake blocks the entire container

    We've spent 30+ years with paperwork free exports and imports from the EU. The introduction of paperwork (a lot of which HMRC have zero people who understand it) is making things impossible. And Covid is sweeping this under the table.

    Now things will get easier - but they will get easier by people reducing the products they import and export - so less paperwork is required and less paperwork is the only way to avoid mistakes occurring.
    So people will adjust. That's not impossible.

    If people don't want to adjust, especially people with EU flags in their Twitter handle, that's on them not politics.

    The idea it is "impossible" to import wines from outside of a customs union would be a strange thought to anyone who likes New World wines.
    I would go and read the thread - there isn't enough available New World wine to replace the EU imports.

    And the issue is mainly the one I've pointed out all month - why should I continue to purchase from you when other options are easier.

    Which is why the UK is now (note now not back in 2019 when it made sense to do so) telling companies to set up EU subsidiaries so that the paperwork is hidden away internally and stock is sent direct from a warehouse in the EU.
    The tweeter is being very misleading suggesting that all EU wine will have to be replaced and the wine industry is under threat

    In reality *his* business model of short line mixed pallets is under threat. Perhaps he needs to transact via an aggregator - which will come at a cost - but is feasible
    So Brexit necessitates a hike in business costs - the absolute inversion of what its proponents claimed would happen. Is there a single element of 'Project Fear' that hasn't come to pass?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,588

    Andy_JS said:

    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    This whole debate is a crock of shit. It's not Lockdowns that depress Covid it's Distancing. If there was a way to get the same Distancing without Lockdown then Lockdown would not be needed. But in the society we live in - being this one rather than one cooked up in the imagination - there wasn't and there isn't. So the tool kit had to include Lockdowns. You can take up different positions on timing, extent, guidance vs law, messaging, how policed, economic support, this sort of thing. All perfectly valid and interesting. But you cannot argue that Distancing (via Lockdowns) is not required to fight Covid. The virus spreads less if people keep apart. To say or imply otherwise is anti-science and anti-truth. The people who do it fall into one of only two categories. (i) Know they're lying. Charlatans and Trolls. (ii) Do not know they're lying. Morons.
    Lockdowns are only necessary if other measures have failed.

    Had we had mandatory hotel quarantines in the summer when cases were nearly eradicated in parts of the country then its entirely possible the virus would have been eliminated and there wouldn't have been a second wave.
    Yes, in March last year we concentrated on locking down the domestic population when what we should have done is focused on banning flights, etc.
    In March it was fair enough actually. The community transmission in March was domestic and there weren't any flights happening really in March either. Between March and May next to nobody arrived in the country during lockdown.

    The mistake was lifting lockdown in May and having flights restart - and now not learning the lessons.

    A ban on flights and introduction of quarantine now won't have much immediate impact, but it will pay major dividends in the future. It should be the final restriction lifted as we get back to normal - having children unable to go to school but Piers Moron able to go to Ibiza (or wherever he went) is not right.
    I agree, although in March flights from northern Italy, which was then the global hotspot for the virus, were arriving at UK airports with absolutely no checks on the condition of the passengers. The passengers themselves posted messages online about how surprised they were by this.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    It occurs to me that if we postponed the locals a month one possible way forward could be to vote outside in gazebos. It should be warm enough, although it being the UK it wouldn’t be guaranteed to be dry.

    Might be worth a shot, anyway.

    23 June 2016 says hello...
    Reasonably warm but soaking wet wasn't it?

    Could potentially have been done in gazebos?
    With the danger of lightning strikes! There was a huge clap of thunder as I left the polling station. It felt very ominous...
    I seem to recall rather glorious sunny weather the next morning though.
    "A new dawn has broken, has it not?"

    :lol:
  • felix said:

    felix said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted. The Chief Political Correspondent for Germany's biggest newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1356149484783366145?s=20

    Someone was muttering something about 'solidarity' earlier...
    For some reason the catastrofuck of the EU vaccine negotiation keeps being used as proof that we were right to leave the EEA. I don't get it, unless like Big G they don't know the difference.
    I think the EEA problem may be 'free movement' - not a problem for me but a biggy for those who voted Leave.
    Considering that the EEA is outside of the Customs Union and deals with customs paperwork too which is what RP keeps complaining about - I'm not convinced he understands the difference either.

    EEA+CU doesn't exist. Well it does, its called EU membership.
    Oh luv, the problem at the moment is the ludicrous amount of SPS red tape, none of which would exist if we remained in the EEA.

    Do try and keep up.
    So fill in the SPS and move on.

    You were convinced, absolutely conviced, that customs paperwork was going to bring the border to a crashing halt. It hasn't happened. So now complaints are boiled down to moaning about firms getting used to SPS red tape. Struggling to give a damn about that to be frank. If that's all you've got to complain about it isn't very much.
    Wowsers. To everyone with eyes and a brain the border has been reduced to this uncomfortable quiet where there's only a fraction of normal traffic and half of that is empty vehicles.

    You remember Multiplicity? You need to be like Michael Keaton. Go clone yourself. Then you can go and fix all the problems by a combination of "nope, no problem here", "market forces", "go buy something else" or some other fantastic solution.

    Go on Philip. Go clone yourself.
    I'm OK. Happy to wait it out and continue to be proved right.

    You were convinced the customs meant that the border would have ground to a halt by now. I accurately predicted there'd be some disruption but actually volumes would be down due to both stockpiling and lockdown.

    I was right on all counts. In fact its going better than I expected. There's been less disruption than I expected.

    If you're are seriously claiming its going as bad or worse as you expected in December then I don't believe.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mr. Felix, is it an Inquisition for the purposes of dealing with heretical vaccine manufacturers?

    NOBODY expects the EU Inquisition.

    Because they couldn't believe it would ever get beyond the planning stage, after sixty four committee meetings. Followed by sixty four very good lunches.
    I’d confess all to avoid 64 committee meetings with EU bureaucrats!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    MattW said:

    https://twitter.com/amolrajan/status/1356165470420930567

    Astonished to learn from this thread that the New European actually makes a small profit.

    Remoan Central v. Brillo’s Gammon Broadcasting; the divisions are mustering in the culture war.
    Interesting that Lionel Barber (ex-FT) is involved.

    Interesting piece by Amol Rajan:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55860118

    TNE currently more than washes its face, making £80,000 as a standalone business. But that is based on a shoestring editorial budget of £6,500 per issue, with some costs absorbed by Archant and only three members of staff, including editor Jasper Copping and digital editor Jono Read. That editorial budget will rise by 50 per cent immediately; and Archant will no longer foot the bill for overheads.

    So trying to turn a hobby publication into a real publication.
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    ydoethur said:

    It occurs to me that if we postponed the locals a month one possible way forward could be to vote outside in gazebos. It should be warm enough, although it being the UK it wouldn’t be guaranteed to be dry.

    Might be worth a shot, anyway.

    23 June 2016 says hello...
    Reasonably warm but soaking wet wasn't it?

    Could potentially have been done in gazebos?
    With the danger of lightning strikes! There was a huge clap of thunder as I left the polling station. It felt very ominous...
    I seem to recall rather glorious sunny weather the next morning though.
    "A new dawn has broken, has it not?"

    :lol:
    I can't stand the dude, but that was rather poetic.

    :lol:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021

    MattW said:

    https://twitter.com/amolrajan/status/1356165470420930567

    Astonished to learn from this thread that the New European actually makes a small profit.

    Remoan Central v. Brillo’s Gammon Broadcasting; the divisions are mustering in the culture war.
    Interesting that Lionel Barber (ex-FT) is involved.

    Interesting piece by Amol Rajan:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-55860118

    TNE currently more than washes its face, making £80,000 as a standalone business. But that is based on a shoestring editorial budget of £6,500 per issue, with some costs absorbed by Archant and only three members of staff, including editor Jasper Copping and digital editor Jono Read. That editorial budget will rise by 50 per cent immediately; and Archant will no longer foot the bill for overheads.

    Its making a profit . . . if you don't include overheads (!?)

    You can't just exclude overheads and claim you've made a profit.
    I knew it, total spin. Another thing to consider, at the moment Archant sorts out all the advertising across all their publications. They will be able to do deals because they have 100,000s in circulation / views across all their platforms.

    Much harder to get ad deals on something with 15k in circulation.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    Charles said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Yep, difficult to disagree with any of that.

    I do wonder, however, if it is just possible that those who were so convinced that the EU were the adults, the reasonable ones whose views and positions should be given unstinting respect and deference through the long and tedious Brexit saga are taking the opportunity to reflect. It turns out that the EU is not an institution of laws after all. It is a bureaucratic mess, slow and incompetent, with a massive democratic deficit who cannot be relied upon to respect the views of its members (in this case Ireland and Art 16).

    Thank the lord we are out of it. Now let's move on together and make the best of our own path.

    As I keep pointing out, there is a world of difference between the EU pooing the bed over their vaccine fiasco and the EU stating a core negotiating position that the UK refused to accept. Nor are the EU the reason why we have chosen to leave the EEA. From the EU's self-imposed idiocy to our own - a wine importer whose business cannot function under the rules the UK government demanded be imposed.

    Some of the responses are quite funny as well. "Can't you import wine from elsewhere?" No - it doesn't exist. ROW doesn't produce anywhere near enough wine to replace EU volume. Err, "they need our customs. can't the frogs tell Macron to change his rules?" No, these are our rules. Insisted on by the UK government.

    https://twitter.com/DanielLambert29/status/1355437505642975233
    Your constant posting of anti brexit stories is rather pointless even more so after these last few days

    We are not going back so business will have to adapt
    I think we know that. The actual issue at the moment (if you read the tweets) is the paperwork requirements are making low volume imports impossible.

    Importing a container with a single product on it not a problem - 1 set of paperwork required.
    Start importing different product within a single container and the problems start to occur - as you need 1 set of paperwork per product and any 1 mistake on single form is enough to block the whole container from moving.
    Start splitting pallets into smaller orders and real problems begin. Remember 1 mistake blocks the entire container

    We've spent 30+ years with paperwork free exports and imports from the EU. The introduction of paperwork (a lot of which HMRC have zero people who understand it) is making things impossible. And Covid is sweeping this under the table.

    Now things will get easier - but they will get easier by people reducing the products they import and export - so less paperwork is required and less paperwork is the only way to avoid mistakes occurring.
    So people will adjust. That's not impossible.

    If people don't want to adjust, especially people with EU flags in their Twitter handle, that's on them not politics.

    The idea it is "impossible" to import wines from outside of a customs union would be a strange thought to anyone who likes New World wines.
    I would go and read the thread - there isn't enough available New World wine to replace the EU imports.

    And the issue is mainly the one I've pointed out all month - why should I continue to purchase from you when other options are easier.

    Which is why the UK is now (note now not back in 2019 when it made sense to do so) telling companies to set up EU subsidiaries so that the paperwork is hidden away internally and stock is sent direct from a warehouse in the EU.
    The tweeter is being very misleading suggesting that all EU wine will have to be replaced and the wine industry is under threat

    In reality *his* business model of short line mixed pallets is under threat. Perhaps he needs to transact via an aggregator - which will come at a cost - but is feasible
    So Brexit necessitates a hike in business costs - the absolute inversion of what its proponents claimed would happen. Is there a single element of 'Project Fear' that hasn't come to pass?
    WW3?
  • Niche Scotpol tweet, but Bobby Gillespie was very much in the ‘wouldn’t touch yer parochial nationalist Indy with a shitty stick’ in 2014; comes from a SLab establishment family.

    Looking forward to hearing from Barbara Dickson.

    https://twitter.com/screamofficial/status/1355873272995459072?s=21
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933
    Scott_xP said:
    Unlikely, given the deal is almost exactly the same as what AZN offered at the start of all this.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Scott_xP said:
    The advantage of being the biggest in the room is that even when you are morally and legally wrong, you can still get your way.
This discussion has been closed.