Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Crisis Management: EU-style – politicalbetting.com

1235712

Comments

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Lawrence Fox pitching his new party towards hardline social conservatives

    https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1356203537601069056?s=20

    Maybe you should should join him?

    If anyone so much hate in their heart that a rainbow makes them angry then they clearly don't believe in the freedom of the individual that the modern party believes in.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    This whole debate is a crock of shit. It's not Lockdowns that depress Covid it's Distancing. If there was a way to get the same Distancing without Lockdown then Lockdown would not be needed. But in the society we live in - being this one rather than one cooked up in the imagination - there wasn't and there isn't. So the tool kit had to include Lockdowns. You can take up different positions on timing, extent, guidance vs law, messaging, how policed, economic support, this sort of thing. All perfectly valid and interesting. But you cannot argue that Distancing (via Lockdowns) is not required to fight Covid. The virus spreads less if people keep apart. To say or imply otherwise is anti-science and anti-truth. The people who do it fall into one of only two categories. (i) Know they're lying. Charlatans and Trolls. (ii) Do not know they're lying. Morons.
    Spot on.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281

    I don't buy that trading should be regulated to stop people falling into bubble traps. Bubbles - TSLA, London top end housing market can last a err... while - and well investing in the stock market has always been swimming with sharks. Let each investor decide according to his risk appetite.
    $GME (I never got involved) was basically a pump scheme but a positive sum one with the other side coming from Melvin Capital due to their short position.
    Is Bitcoin a bubble ? Who knows at this point. Is Dogecoin ? Certainly, I'm up around £90 through trading that (In tiny size !) though.
    $GME is a bet like much else in life. What was reprehensible was trading apps restricting purchases, forcing sales and only allowing people to sell. Not a fair market at that point.
    Pumping can be illegal for a reason. Much of the money lost from this will be from mugs who have fallen for a Ponzi, not from Melvin Capital.

    Entirely possible someone will face serious prosecution once this is over with. Maybe not, but I wouldn't rule it out.
    A Ponzi scheme is where the organizer intentionally pays the profits of early investors from the investments of later investors.

    GME is many things but its not a Ponzi scheme.
    Pump and dump works a similar way.

    The organiser intentionally puts in money to pump, thus making profits for the early investors until the mugs come in and he can dump it.

    Different concepts but boil down to similar concepts. As do many frauds. For the mugs who lose their shirt there's little meaningful difference.
    Very often the methodology is to pick a legitimate stock, take some real information about it, and use that for pump-and-dump.

    The unrealistic bit of the film Boiler Room (which portrayed this far better than Wolf of Wall Street, on the whole) was the use of totally fake companies.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879
    edited February 2021
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Carnyx said:

    Mollusc exporting bloke says:

    “This is not a teething issue, this is the government removing all our teeth and leaving us unable to eat”.

    He added: “This is not new EU policy. This has always been there.

    “This is the government not doing their job to safeguard the industry”.

    “Before December 31 we were in the EU and DEFRA was responsible for policing imports from third countries. Now we are out of the EU how come it is only now we are told of the situation. It’s like saying a policeman who’s been on the beat for the last 50 years didn’t know the law”.

    'Government' = UKG.

    Should we have an over/under on the when the first Brexiteer will post "This huge problem entirely caused by Brexit proves why Brexit was a great idea.." ?
    It might be more to the point to consider whether the betting for Tory MPs and MSPs keeping their seats in the coastal constituencies and regions should be revised.
    There are no Tory MSPs in coastal region constituencies at Holyrood, both Moray and Banffshire and Buchan coast for example have SNP MSPs even if they have Tory MPs
    Come off it. You're mixing constituencies and regions in your reply. But if we are talking about MSPs only, then there are [edit] 15 plus SCUP MSPs in lists with coastal constituencies voting within them.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908
    Scott_xP said:

    Look back at the weekend threads. Continuous demands from Brexiteers that everybody uniformly condemn the EU for fucking up and having the temerity to try and fix it.

    If "to try to fix it" equals conspiracy theories about AZ, threats to block exports to the UK, and unilaterally closing the border between the Republic and Northern Ireland, then I'd hate to see what they would do if they had lost their rag.

    The Commission has plainly done a terrible job of vaccine aquisition, and now that people have noticed — and I note the people who bragged about the low price paid by the EU have gone awfully quiet — do they work with the various parties to fix things? No they blame the UK for having the temerity to get its act together and order early, pay for manufacturing, and speed up approvals.

    This story is quite useful in one way, because it separates the people who like the EU from the absolute fantatics who will defend it come what may.
  • The UK has ordered an extra 40 million doses of a coronavirus vaccine from the French pharmaceutical company Valneva, that should become available later in the year and into 2022.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55887264

    And the EU....still haggling with Abbas about that nice carpet.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281

    I don't buy that trading should be regulated to stop people falling into bubble traps. Bubbles - TSLA, London top end housing market can last a err... while - and well investing in the stock market has always been swimming with sharks. Let each investor decide according to his risk appetite.
    $GME (I never got involved) was basically a pump scheme but a positive sum one with the other side coming from Melvin Capital due to their short position.
    Is Bitcoin a bubble ? Who knows at this point. Is Dogecoin ? Certainly, I'm up around £90 through trading that (In tiny size !) though.
    $GME is a bet like much else in life. What was reprehensible was trading apps restricting purchases, forcing sales and only allowing people to sell. Not a fair market at that point.
    I tend to agree with you (though GME is an extreme example).
    But note that the restrictions on trading were really to do with US finance regulation, rather than anything nefarious, as explained here (it's a long thread):

    https://twitter.com/KralcTrebor/status/1354952689478754309
    https://twitter.com/KralcTrebor/status/1354952690841907200
    https://twitter.com/KralcTrebor/status/1354952691856896000

    ...
    https://twitter.com/KralcTrebor/status/1354952706998349831

    Though this is at least questionable.
    https://twitter.com/KralcTrebor/status/1355175395642003456
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited February 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    Who is snarling now?

    You are. Constantly.

    Look back at the weekend threads. Continuous demands from Brexiteers that everybody uniformly condemn the EU for fucking up and having the temerity to try and fix it.

    The 2 minute hate lasted 2 days...
    If you want to argue the condemnation was excessive that is one thing, but suggesting it was because 'they had the temerity to try to fix it' is just plain dishonest and unworthy of you.

    The issue was HOW they tried to fix it. They spread misinformation and made wild accusations without evidence. They tried to drag the UK into their contractual dispute with a company and nearly precipitated a diplomatic crisis. And none of it would have helped address the problem as much as their normal, cooperative approach would have.

    They acted like the worst of the Brexiteers ever have as a result of a problem largely their own fault. THAT is why even great fans of the EU lined up to condemn them on this matter at least.

    It was not because they had the 'temerity' to try to fix the problem.

    Boris tried to fix a problem by threatening to break international law. Was it wrong to criticise him for having the temerity to try to fix a problem he had? I dont think so, it was how he tried to solve his problem that was the issue.

    It doesnt undermine the EU to criticise it severely when it messes up. It helps the EU to face up to problems rather than avoid them under the guise of unity.

    Criticism helps.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Interesting header. Thanks Cycle :)
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Scott_xP said:

    We are now turning down work as we simply don't have the staff to do it. We have four permanent job adverts on Indeed and nobody applies.

    Get some Poles. Oh, wait...
    Leavers would say that is a good thing. If Nery`s company is struggling to fill vacancies due to insufficient supply of labour then wages will have to rise until the supply appears (it will).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021
    Scott N Paste appears to be terrible Stockholm Syndrome sufferer....EU just threatened to throw UK grannies under the bus, accused UK of starting a war, nearly started a war over the Irish border, promoted anti-vaxxer conspiracy theories and pissed off a whole load of Western allies / companies...and it is still Brexiteers fault.

    And they were willing to do all of this, rather than simply admit a mistake and try to fix it. And now, no resignations, no admission of fault, just carrying on like nothing happened.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    This whole debate is a crock of shit. It's not Lockdowns that depress Covid it's Distancing. If there was a way to get the same Distancing without Lockdown then Lockdown would not be needed. But in the society we live in - being this one rather than one cooked up in the imagination - there wasn't and there isn't. So the tool kit had to include Lockdowns. You can take up different positions on timing, extent, guidance vs law, messaging, how policed, economic support, this sort of thing. All perfectly valid and interesting. But you cannot argue that Distancing (via Lockdowns) is not required to fight Covid. The virus spreads less if people keep apart. To say or imply otherwise is anti-science and anti-truth. The people who do it fall into one of only two categories. (i) Know they're lying. Charlatans and Trolls. (ii) Do not know they're lying. Morons.
    No, you're misdiagnosing the problem just like all westerners. The APAC approach has been to have tough isolation measures for people who test positive and rapid follow up testing of everyone they've been in contact with. Lockdowns should be used as a last resort, measure not as a substitution for proper isolation measures.

    The virus spreads because people who have it come into contact with people who don't have it, stopping that is the key do defeating it, lockdowns are the most destructive way to do it.
  • Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Mollusc exporting bloke says:

    “This is not a teething issue, this is the government removing all our teeth and leaving us unable to eat”.

    He added: “This is not new EU policy. This has always been there.

    “This is the government not doing their job to safeguard the industry”.

    “Before December 31 we were in the EU and DEFRA was responsible for policing imports from third countries. Now we are out of the EU how come it is only now we are told of the situation. It’s like saying a policeman who’s been on the beat for the last 50 years didn’t know the law”.

    'Government' = UKG.

    Our government didn't understand the deal it was signing.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,752
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Carnyx said:

    Mollusc exporting bloke says:

    “This is not a teething issue, this is the government removing all our teeth and leaving us unable to eat”.

    He added: “This is not new EU policy. This has always been there.

    “This is the government not doing their job to safeguard the industry”.

    “Before December 31 we were in the EU and DEFRA was responsible for policing imports from third countries. Now we are out of the EU how come it is only now we are told of the situation. It’s like saying a policeman who’s been on the beat for the last 50 years didn’t know the law”.

    'Government' = UKG.

    Should we have an over/under on the when the first Brexiteer will post "This huge problem entirely caused by Brexit proves why Brexit was a great idea.." ?
    It might be more to the point to consider whether the betting for Tory MPs and MSPs keeping their seats in the coastal constituencies and regions should be revised.
    Possibly. But the damage will be mitigated by the prospect of the alternative - back in the EU/CFP with the SNP. Not made any more attractive by the show of respect to Irish sensitivities.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Carnyx said:

    Mollusc exporting bloke says:

    “This is not a teething issue, this is the government removing all our teeth and leaving us unable to eat”.

    He added: “This is not new EU policy. This has always been there.

    “This is the government not doing their job to safeguard the industry”.

    “Before December 31 we were in the EU and DEFRA was responsible for policing imports from third countries. Now we are out of the EU how come it is only now we are told of the situation. It’s like saying a policeman who’s been on the beat for the last 50 years didn’t know the law”.

    'Government' = UKG.

    Should we have an over/under on the when the first Brexiteer will post "This huge problem entirely caused by Brexit proves why Brexit was a great idea.." ?
    It might be more to the point to consider whether the betting for Tory MPs and MSPs keeping their seats in the coastal constituencies and regions should be revised.
    There are no Tory MSPs in coastal region constituencies at Holyrood, both Moray and Banffshire and Buchan coast for example have SNP MSPs even if they have Tory MPs
    Come off it. You're mixing constituencies and regions in your reply. But if we are talking about MSPs only, then there are [edit] 15 plus SCUP MSPs in lists with coastal constituencies voting within them.
    Most of the voters in regions which elect list MSPs do not live in coastal constituencies
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,754

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    I don't know, which is why I am being cautious. But its certainly something that will looked at when this is over. If it ever is.

    The effect of lockdown is undeniable when you look at how cases plunged after the first lockdown. Unless you think something else was at work here?
    look I don;t know, but cases in the US are dropping, even in states that have light regulation. I don;t know the details of the individual states which is why I am not making any claims.

    It may be that lockdowns speed up the process, but look at the side effects. Horrendous. More and more details are emerging about what we are doing to our children. Simply awful.

    To me, its unforgiveable.
    What do you mean by light regulation? I don't think any place is operating status quo ante.
    I donlt know the details, but what's certain is that lockdown rules are not uniform across the US. Some states are tougher than others.
    Indeed. These analyses are slightly dated now, be interested to see the more recent ones on which you're basing your assertions.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/18/us/covid-state-restrictions.html
    https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.13484 (this is a pre-print, not peer reviewed - I haven't read in detail and it's not quite my area of expertise although I've used some of the methods)

    What we've tended to see (e.g. Sweden) is that people are (mostly) not stupid and when prevalence of Covid is high they self-lockdown to a large extent, even if not forced to do so by law. However, stronger lockdowns have been generally associated with stronger falls.

    Looking at cases alone is potentially a bit misleading, as places with more cases tend to bring in stronger lockdowns. If you have lots of wildfires, you probably have more firefighters, but it doesn't mean that firefighters cause fires. It does mean that you probably are able to put out fires more quickly.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Carnyx said:

    Mollusc exporting bloke says:

    “This is not a teething issue, this is the government removing all our teeth and leaving us unable to eat”.

    He added: “This is not new EU policy. This has always been there.

    “This is the government not doing their job to safeguard the industry”.

    “Before December 31 we were in the EU and DEFRA was responsible for policing imports from third countries. Now we are out of the EU how come it is only now we are told of the situation. It’s like saying a policeman who’s been on the beat for the last 50 years didn’t know the law”.

    'Government' = UKG.

    Should we have an over/under on the when the first Brexiteer will post "This huge problem entirely caused by Brexit proves why Brexit was a great idea.." ?
    It might be more to the point to consider whether the betting for Tory MPs and MSPs keeping their seats in the coastal constituencies and regions should be revised.
    Possibly. But the damage will be mitigated by the prospect of the alternative - back in the EU/CFP with the SNP. Not made any more attractive by the show of respect to Irish sensitivities.
    Isn't that already baked in to the consistency of a Royal Naval biscuit c. 1805?

    And they could still vote for Ms Ballantyne and her lot, or Mr Galloway and his lot.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,421
    edited February 2021
    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    This whole debate is a crock of shit. It's not Lockdowns that depress Covid it's Distancing. If there was a way to get the same Distancing without Lockdown then Lockdown would not be needed. But in the society we live in - being this one rather than one cooked up in the imagination - there wasn't and there isn't. So the tool kit had to include Lockdowns. You can take up different positions on timing, extent, guidance vs law, messaging, how policed, economic support, this sort of thing. All perfectly valid and interesting. But you cannot argue that Distancing (via Lockdowns) is not required to fight Covid. The virus spreads less if people keep apart. To say or imply otherwise is anti-science and anti-truth. The people who do it fall into one of only two categories. (i) Know they're lying. Charlatans and Trolls. (ii) Do not know they're lying. Morons.
    There are two better alternatives to Distancing, which I think of as Isolation of Everyone.

    One is border controls. Which you can think of as Isolation of the Country - as in New Zealand.

    The other is effective testing and tracing. Which is Isolation of the Infectious. Arguably South Korea and Japan are the best examples of this, but I'm not certain as I haven't looked in detail.

    Vaccination might be thought of as Isolation of the Virus. So a third (better alternative).

    Isolating everyone is the third-worst option, after not bothering with any isolation at all, and the risk segmentation approach of Isolating the Vulnerable.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Carnyx said:

    Mollusc exporting bloke says:

    “This is not a teething issue, this is the government removing all our teeth and leaving us unable to eat”.

    He added: “This is not new EU policy. This has always been there.

    “This is the government not doing their job to safeguard the industry”.

    “Before December 31 we were in the EU and DEFRA was responsible for policing imports from third countries. Now we are out of the EU how come it is only now we are told of the situation. It’s like saying a policeman who’s been on the beat for the last 50 years didn’t know the law”.

    'Government' = UKG.

    Should we have an over/under on the when the first Brexiteer will post "This huge problem entirely caused by Brexit proves why Brexit was a great idea.." ?
    It might be more to the point to consider whether the betting for Tory MPs and MSPs keeping their seats in the coastal constituencies and regions should be revised.
    There are no Tory MSPs in coastal region constituencies at Holyrood, both Moray and Banffshire and Buchan coast for example have SNP MSPs even if they have Tory MPs
    Come off it. You're mixing constituencies and regions in your reply. But if we are talking about MSPs only, then there are [edit] 15 plus SCUP MSPs in lists with coastal constituencies voting within them.
    Most of the voters in regions which elect list MSPs do not live in coastal constituencies
    But some do.

    And you spent the last 2-3 years lecturing us about how important the fishing industry vote was politically.

    Suddently it isn't?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    HYUFD said:
    What's the net rating for Matt Goodwin?

    He really is an odious Trump-licking twat.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209

    Nigelb said:

    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281

    It's not a Ponzi scheme. It looks more like a pump 'n dump (see Wolf of Wall Street) even if that is not the intention of those who started it (and as your link suggests, it might have been). So to that end, it also looks like a classic bubble.

    Among the casualties will be not just those poor saps who have done their life savings or stimulus cheques but also the platforms they use to invest. See this article on Robin Hood.
    https://fintechlatest.substack.com/p/robinhood-a-fintech-suicide

    And the irony is the much-hated hedge funds will now be reading the Reddit groups for investment tips.
    Robin Hood is an interesting tale - there are more and more of these platforms popping up. People don't ask about the convoluted chain to the actual, real market. In their case, it seems that the people they had contracts with were involved in the market.....
    Since Alan Greenspan bailed out LTCM and Gordon Brown sold Britain's gold, the global financial industry has assumed it can reap its profits and socialise its losses.

    This is the latest test of assumption.
    I agree. Well I'm not sure I completely do, but it's certainly a good point. I always like to leap in with a tick when I see such a thing from you. But why tarnish it by shoehorning the 'Brown gold' trope in there?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600

    The UK has ordered an extra 40 million doses of a coronavirus vaccine from the French pharmaceutical company Valneva, that should become available later in the year and into 2022.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55887264

    And the EU....still haggling with Abbas about that nice carpet.

    It's not a nice carpet. It's a worn carpet, smells of shit, they'd never give it house room. The EU, need a carpet? Forget it.
  • kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    This whole debate is a crock of shit. It's not Lockdowns that depress Covid it's Distancing. If there was a way to get the same Distancing without Lockdown then Lockdown would not be needed. But in the society we live in - being this one rather than one cooked up in the imagination - there wasn't and there isn't. So the tool kit had to include Lockdowns. You can take up different positions on timing, extent, guidance vs law, messaging, how policed, economic support, this sort of thing. All perfectly valid and interesting. But you cannot argue that Distancing (via Lockdowns) is not required to fight Covid. The virus spreads less if people keep apart. To say or imply otherwise is anti-science and anti-truth. The people who do it fall into one of only two categories. (i) Know they're lying. Charlatans and Trolls. (ii) Do not know they're lying. Morons.
    Lockdowns are only necessary if other measures have failed.

    Had we had mandatory hotel quarantines in the summer when cases were nearly eradicated in parts of the country then its entirely possible the virus would have been eliminated and there wouldn't have been a second wave.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    eek said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Yep, difficult to disagree with any of that.

    I do wonder, however, if it is just possible that those who were so convinced that the EU were the adults, the reasonable ones whose views and positions should be given unstinting respect and deference through the long and tedious Brexit saga are taking the opportunity to reflect. It turns out that the EU is not an institution of laws after all. It is a bureaucratic mess, slow and incompetent, with a massive democratic deficit who cannot be relied upon to respect the views of its members (in this case Ireland and Art 16).

    Thank the lord we are out of it. Now let's move on together and make the best of our own path.

    As I keep pointing out, there is a world of difference between the EU pooing the bed over their vaccine fiasco and the EU stating a core negotiating position that the UK refused to accept. Nor are the EU the reason why we have chosen to leave the EEA. From the EU's self-imposed idiocy to our own - a wine importer whose business cannot function under the rules the UK government demanded be imposed.

    Some of the responses are quite funny as well. "Can't you import wine from elsewhere?" No - it doesn't exist. ROW doesn't produce anywhere near enough wine to replace EU volume. Err, "they need our customs. can't the frogs tell Macron to change his rules?" No, these are our rules. Insisted on by the UK government.

    https://twitter.com/DanielLambert29/status/1355437505642975233
    Your constant posting of anti brexit stories is rather pointless even more so after these last few days

    We are not going back so business will have to adapt
    I think we know that. The actual issue at the moment (if you read the tweets) is the paperwork requirements are making low volume imports impossible.

    Importing a container with a single product on it not a problem - 1 set of paperwork required.
    Start importing different product within a single container and the problems start to occur - as you need 1 set of paperwork per product and any 1 mistake on single form is enough to block the whole container from moving.
    Start splitting pallets into smaller orders and real problems begin. Remember 1 mistake blocks the entire container

    We've spent 30+ years with paperwork free exports and imports from the EU. The introduction of paperwork (a lot of which HMRC have zero people who understand it) is making things impossible. And Covid is sweeping this under the table.

    Now things will get easier - but they will get easier by people reducing the products they import and export - so less paperwork is required and less paperwork is the only way to avoid mistakes occurring.
    So people will adjust. That's not impossible.

    If people don't want to adjust, especially people with EU flags in their Twitter handle, that's on them not politics.

    The idea it is "impossible" to import wines from outside of a customs union would be a strange thought to anyone who likes New World wines.
    I would go and read the thread - there isn't enough available New World wine to replace the EU imports.

    And the issue is mainly the one I've pointed out all month - why should I continue to purchase from you when other options are easier.

    Which is why the UK is now (note now not back in 2019 when it made sense to do so) telling companies to set up EU subsidiaries so that the paperwork is hidden away internally and stock is sent direct from a warehouse in the EU.
    Sorry but I'm not going to take the word of some random person on Twitter with an EU flag in their handle that there isn't enough wine in the world.

    Setting up PO Box offices in the EU if it is a solution that works is a good adaptation. Businesses find their way around regulations better than people give them credit for.
    Absolutely. We can ignore the opinions on wine made by a man who has spent 29 years importing wines because Philip is more of an expert on the subject than he is.
    Only just seen these nonsensical comments about wine imports. If you believe that UK wine imports are done by one man band wine importers and not supermarkets and trade side wine suppliers who are not ordering one part pallette then you have a fundamental misunderstanding of trade.

    I definitely think this will add complexity and cost for them and we will lose from the margins businesses like the tweeter, unless they can adapt. However there is absolutely no chance that there will be a requirement to send all the wine from the rest of the world to the UK.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908

    The UK has ordered an extra 40 million doses of a coronavirus vaccine from the French pharmaceutical company Valneva, that should become available later in the year and into 2022.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55887264

    And the EU....still haggling with Abbas about that nice carpet.

    You would usually expect that the French government could easily wangle an order from the EU to a French company before the UK got a look in.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Apologies if this has already been posted. The Chief Political Correspondent for Germany's biggest newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1356149484783366145?s=20
  • Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281

    I don't buy that trading should be regulated to stop people falling into bubble traps. Bubbles - TSLA, London top end housing market can last a err... while - and well investing in the stock market has always been swimming with sharks. Let each investor decide according to his risk appetite.
    $GME (I never got involved) was basically a pump scheme but a positive sum one with the other side coming from Melvin Capital due to their short position.
    Is Bitcoin a bubble ? Who knows at this point. Is Dogecoin ? Certainly, I'm up around £90 through trading that (In tiny size !) though.
    $GME is a bet like much else in life. What was reprehensible was trading apps restricting purchases, forcing sales and only allowing people to sell. Not a fair market at that point.
    I tend to agree with you (though GME is an extreme example).
    But note that the restrictions on trading were really to do with US finance regulation, rather than anything nefarious, as explained here (it's a long thread):

    https://twitter.com/KralcTrebor/status/1354952689478754309
    https://twitter.com/KralcTrebor/status/1354952690841907200
    https://twitter.com/KralcTrebor/status/1354952691856896000

    ...
    https://twitter.com/KralcTrebor/status/1354952706998349831

    Though this is at least questionable.
    https://twitter.com/KralcTrebor/status/1355175395642003456
    "Margin Liquidity Adjustment Charge" = "More Expensive Continental Plonk"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    glw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Look back at the weekend threads. Continuous demands from Brexiteers that everybody uniformly condemn the EU for fucking up and having the temerity to try and fix it.

    If "to try to fix it" equals conspiracy theories about AZ, threats to block exports to the UK, and unilaterally closing the border between the Republic and Northern Ireland, then I'd hate to see what they would do if they had lost their rag.

    The Commission has plainly done a terrible job of vaccine aquisition, and now that people have noticed — and I note the people who bragged about the low price paid by the EU have gone awfully quiet — do they work with the various parties to fix things? No they blame the UK for having the temerity to get its act together and order early, pay for manufacturing, and speed up approvals.

    This story is quite useful in one way, because it separates the people who like the EU from the absolute fantatics who will defend it come what may.
    Yes. It's perfectly possible to think overall the EU would be best and we should rejoin and that they deserve all the condemnation on this specific issue for actions and toddler like response.

    Thise who support the actual EU and not a brand can easily do that.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Scott_xP said:

    We are now turning down work as we simply don't have the staff to do it. We have four permanent job adverts on Indeed and nobody applies.

    Get some Poles. Oh, wait...
    We employ plenty of Polish here
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 370
    edited February 2021
    In the absence of a healthcare system the pandemic will follow its natural course. This involves several waves, a few mutations, and eventual decline or cessation of the pandemic. Pandemics are self-limiting catastrophic phenomena. The way poorer countries are reacting is not designed to contain the pandemic, but it is likely based on instinctive behaviour. The need to eat and reproduce comes first in nature. They choose their priorities and we choose ours.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    HYUFD said:
    Old boundaries? If so, new boundaries might still be giving a Tory majority.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117
    edited February 2021
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Carnyx said:

    Mollusc exporting bloke says:

    “This is not a teething issue, this is the government removing all our teeth and leaving us unable to eat”.

    He added: “This is not new EU policy. This has always been there.

    “This is the government not doing their job to safeguard the industry”.

    “Before December 31 we were in the EU and DEFRA was responsible for policing imports from third countries. Now we are out of the EU how come it is only now we are told of the situation. It’s like saying a policeman who’s been on the beat for the last 50 years didn’t know the law”.

    'Government' = UKG.

    Should we have an over/under on the when the first Brexiteer will post "This huge problem entirely caused by Brexit proves why Brexit was a great idea.." ?
    It might be more to the point to consider whether the betting for Tory MPs and MSPs keeping their seats in the coastal constituencies and regions should be revised.
    There are no Tory MSPs in coastal region constituencies at Holyrood, both Moray and Banffshire and Buchan coast for example have SNP MSPs even if they have Tory MPs
    Come off it. You're mixing constituencies and regions in your reply. But if we are talking about MSPs only, then there are [edit] 15 plus SCUP MSPs in lists with coastal constituencies voting within them.
    Most of the voters in regions which elect list MSPs do not live in coastal constituencies
    But some do.

    And you spent the last 2-3 years lecturing us about how important the fishing industry vote was politically.

    Suddently it isn't?
    In which case the Tory MSPs on the list in areas with fishing communities would be replaced by Reform UK and UKIP MSPs on the PR top up list, the SNP would not get any more list MSPs it would just be a Unionist MSP replacing a Unionist MSP but the new Unionist MSP would be an even more hardline Brexiteer
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    kamski said:

    felix said:

    kamski said:

    Good Header. The EU commission has been rubbish. And, from a German perspective, Merkel has seemingly been absent, as she has been throughout this pandemic. I would have expected a bit more leadership from the German chancellor.

    From a wider perspective, and ignoring the current spat which I suspect will have little effect on the vaccination rollout (though obviously damaging to relationships and the Commission's reputation), how would things be if there had been no EU vaccine procurement? I guess some countries would have done better, others worse, but either way we'd probably have a massive mess with neighboring countries arguing over whose orders should be reduced the least.

    It makes sense for Britain to do its own thing being an island. It also makes sense for Britain to try and get the whole island of Ireland vaccinated, as that is where the only UK land border is.

    I wouldn't expect the UK to offer spare vaccines to the rest of the EU, though a gesture might be worth it as a way to try to get the UK included back into the "European solidarity" which it people think it has withdrawn itself from.

    If I hear the crap about 'solidarity' one more time. There is no issue with the EU scheme other than it has chosen to replace speed and variety at slightly higher cost with bureaucracy and delay at every possible juncture. Even had things gone smoothly the response has been slow. They have added to this the nasty little swipes against a vaccine purely because of its supposed 'english ' links providing fuel for anti-vax sentiment in an already sceptical population. Less slogans please and more action. Take your solidarity and place it where the sun cannot reach!
    European solidarity is a real thing, though it might be misused. I have noticed its existence, even if you haven't. So you can stick your narrowminded blindness wherever you like.

    Lots of people feel that they are part of a European "family" and that the UK has chosen to leave. That is just how people feel. TBH most people are not very interested in what happens in the UK, which I think is a pity, but that is how it is now.
    European solidarity is a sentiment. The vaccination shambles is a matter of life and death.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning all,

    On topic. It's an excellent piece from @Cyclefree but I need to pick up on some of the legal analysis. I've been through the AZ/EU contract with a fine toothbrush and have come to a completely different set of conclusions which are far more favourable to Brussels and cast the situation in a wholly different light. Writing them up now. Watch this space.

    Off topic. There's been a twitter storm here in North London today with an antivax loony spreading the story that Captain Tom Moore (rooting for) had had the vaccine and his now having Covid proved it doesn't work. Tetchy exchanges ensued during which worrying evidence for the claim was presented in the form of a link headlined "Tom gets vaccine". Clicked in and it turns out Tom has indeed had the vaccine. Tom Jones. Can you believe this stuff? Pathetic really. Why why why must people abuse social media this way?

    Cyclefree is a lawyer, you aren't. She has the expert opinion here, you have the pro-EU, Britain hating agenda fuelled predetermined conclusion.

    Sorry mate, all of the lawyers have opined on this in favour of AZ, including remain voting ones like David Allen Green.
    That was a joke from me, Max.
    "Went through the contract with a fine toothbrush?"
    :smile:
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,752
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Carnyx said:

    Mollusc exporting bloke says:

    “This is not a teething issue, this is the government removing all our teeth and leaving us unable to eat”.

    He added: “This is not new EU policy. This has always been there.

    “This is the government not doing their job to safeguard the industry”.

    “Before December 31 we were in the EU and DEFRA was responsible for policing imports from third countries. Now we are out of the EU how come it is only now we are told of the situation. It’s like saying a policeman who’s been on the beat for the last 50 years didn’t know the law”.

    'Government' = UKG.

    Should we have an over/under on the when the first Brexiteer will post "This huge problem entirely caused by Brexit proves why Brexit was a great idea.." ?
    It might be more to the point to consider whether the betting for Tory MPs and MSPs keeping their seats in the coastal constituencies and regions should be revised.
    Possibly. But the damage will be mitigated by the prospect of the alternative - back in the EU/CFP with the SNP. Not made any more attractive by the show of respect to Irish sensitivities.
    Isn't that already baked in to the consistency of a Royal Naval biscuit c. 1805?

    And they could still vote for Ms Ballantyne and her lot, or Mr Galloway and his lot.
    They could, but they won't. Both vanity projects with zero leverage. Much like that pro-Indy outfit, whatever it's called.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021

    Apologies if this has already been posted. The Chief Political Correspondent for Germany's biggest newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1356149484783366145?s=20

    I always see the EC a bit like the Tories in the UK. People aren't necessarily ever in love with them, but many continue to vote for them because belief they are at least competent at running the economy. When that veneer of competency is lost, it is very difficult to take people with you.

    And the EC haven't just f##ked up vaccines, they f##ked up ventilators, PPE, etc.

    Of course you can't vote to replace the members of the EC.
  • One minor thing which hasn't got much attention regarding the EU vaccine procurement fiasco is that it's not just the EU. The country which surprises me most on this is Norway. Norway is one of richest countries in the world per-capita, it is generally very well-run, and although it is small, it could still have put in early orders in the way that Israel did. They even have a ginormous Sovereign Wealth Fund which could have used a small proportion of its spare change to punt a few billion on investing in vaccine companies or production facilities - after all, what's a rainy day fund for if it's not to do something when the heavens open? But they voluntarily and unnecessarily opted instead to piggy-back on the EU scheme, with no say in how it was organised, which vaccines were prioritised, and whether the pace could be upped. As a result they find themselves waiting for pitiful quantities of vaccine passed on from Sweden. Even within that constraint they are doing worse than their Nordic EU neighbours. It is very strange.

    Norway hasnt suffered that much in terms of restrictions (a few weeks of tier 3 equivalent, mostly tier 1 equivalent) or deaths (less than 10% of UK per capita), so it is probably far less of a priority there compared to the UK. It is strange nonetheless.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Carnyx said:

    Mollusc exporting bloke says:

    “This is not a teething issue, this is the government removing all our teeth and leaving us unable to eat”.

    He added: “This is not new EU policy. This has always been there.

    “This is the government not doing their job to safeguard the industry”.

    “Before December 31 we were in the EU and DEFRA was responsible for policing imports from third countries. Now we are out of the EU how come it is only now we are told of the situation. It’s like saying a policeman who’s been on the beat for the last 50 years didn’t know the law”.

    'Government' = UKG.

    Should we have an over/under on the when the first Brexiteer will post "This huge problem entirely caused by Brexit proves why Brexit was a great idea.." ?
    It might be more to the point to consider whether the betting for Tory MPs and MSPs keeping their seats in the coastal constituencies and regions should be revised.
    There are no Tory MSPs in coastal region constituencies at Holyrood, both Moray and Banffshire and Buchan coast for example have SNP MSPs even if they have Tory MPs
    Come off it. You're mixing constituencies and regions in your reply. But if we are talking about MSPs only, then there are [edit] 15 plus SCUP MSPs in lists with coastal constituencies voting within them.
    Most of the voters in regions which elect list MSPs do not live in coastal constituencies
    But some do.

    And you spent the last 2-3 years lecturing us about how important the fishing industry vote was politically.

    Suddently it isn't?
    In which case the Tory MSPs on the list in areas with fishing communities would be replaced by Reform UK and UKIP MSPs on the PR top up list, the SNP would not get any more list MSPs it would just be a Unionist MSP replacing a Unionist MSP but the new Unionist MSP would be an even more hardline Brexiteer
    I wasn't talking about Britisn Nationalist MSPs in general - but specifically Tory Party MSPs and MPs. They're the ones signed up to Mr Johnson's party and its administration of Brexit.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Carnyx said:

    Mollusc exporting bloke says:

    “This is not a teething issue, this is the government removing all our teeth and leaving us unable to eat”.

    He added: “This is not new EU policy. This has always been there.

    “This is the government not doing their job to safeguard the industry”.

    “Before December 31 we were in the EU and DEFRA was responsible for policing imports from third countries. Now we are out of the EU how come it is only now we are told of the situation. It’s like saying a policeman who’s been on the beat for the last 50 years didn’t know the law”.

    'Government' = UKG.

    Should we have an over/under on the when the first Brexiteer will post "This huge problem entirely caused by Brexit proves why Brexit was a great idea.." ?
    It might be more to the point to consider whether the betting for Tory MPs and MSPs keeping their seats in the coastal constituencies and regions should be revised.
    Possibly. But the damage will be mitigated by the prospect of the alternative - back in the EU/CFP with the SNP. Not made any more attractive by the show of respect to Irish sensitivities.
    Isn't that already baked in to the consistency of a Royal Naval biscuit c. 1805?

    And they could still vote for Ms Ballantyne and her lot, or Mr Galloway and his lot.
    They could, but they won't. Both vanity projects with zero leverage. Much like that pro-Indy outfit, whatever it's called.
    Mr Galloway perhaps not - but I wouldn't write Ms B off quite yet, especially with this latest news.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    HYUFD said:
    But ... but ... but ...

    ... last week you tried telling me that the Conservatives were haemorrhaging support to Labour!

    Another recent poll has the tories 4% ahead with a swing of 7% to the Tories: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-labour-poll-boris-johnson-keir-starmer-vaccine-b1795406.html

    My prediction is that the tories will have a 10% lead in a poll some time in the next 12 months.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    This whole debate is a crock of shit. It's not Lockdowns that depress Covid it's Distancing. If there was a way to get the same Distancing without Lockdown then Lockdown would not be needed. But in the society we live in - being this one rather than one cooked up in the imagination - there wasn't and there isn't. So the tool kit had to include Lockdowns. You can take up different positions on timing, extent, guidance vs law, messaging, how policed, economic support, this sort of thing. All perfectly valid and interesting. But you cannot argue that Distancing (via Lockdowns) is not required to fight Covid. The virus spreads less if people keep apart. To say or imply otherwise is anti-science and anti-truth. The people who do it fall into one of only two categories. (i) Know they're lying. Charlatans and Trolls. (ii) Do not know they're lying. Morons.
    Lockdowns are only necessary if other measures have failed.

    Had we had mandatory hotel quarantines in the summer when cases were nearly eradicated in parts of the country then its entirely possible the virus would have been eliminated and there wouldn't have been a second wave.
    Yup, that was the big failure of the government, we needed to have a proper quarantine on entry system and proper isolation measures for everyone who tested positive. We failed to do that properly in the summer and we've paid the price for that economically and by 60k extra people dying.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Carnyx said:

    Mollusc exporting bloke says:

    “This is not a teething issue, this is the government removing all our teeth and leaving us unable to eat”.

    He added: “This is not new EU policy. This has always been there.

    “This is the government not doing their job to safeguard the industry”.

    “Before December 31 we were in the EU and DEFRA was responsible for policing imports from third countries. Now we are out of the EU how come it is only now we are told of the situation. It’s like saying a policeman who’s been on the beat for the last 50 years didn’t know the law”.

    'Government' = UKG.

    Should we have an over/under on the when the first Brexiteer will post "This huge problem entirely caused by Brexit proves why Brexit was a great idea.." ?
    It might be more to the point to consider whether the betting for Tory MPs and MSPs keeping their seats in the coastal constituencies and regions should be revised.
    There are no Tory MSPs in coastal region constituencies at Holyrood, both Moray and Banffshire and Buchan coast for example have SNP MSPs even if they have Tory MPs
    Come off it. You're mixing constituencies and regions in your reply. But if we are talking about MSPs only, then there are [edit] 15 plus SCUP MSPs in lists with coastal constituencies voting within them.
    Most of the voters in regions which elect list MSPs do not live in coastal constituencies
    But some do.

    And you spent the last 2-3 years lecturing us about how important the fishing industry vote was politically.

    Suddently it isn't?
    In which case the Tory MSPs on the list in areas with fishing communities would be replaced by Reform UK and UKIP MSPs on the PR top up list, the SNP would not get any more list MSPs it would just be a Unionist MSP replacing a Unionist MSP but the new Unionist MSP would be an even more hardline Brexiteer
    I wasn't talking about Britisn Nationalist MSPs in general - but specifically Tory Party MSPs and MPs. They're the ones signed up to Mr Johnson's party and its administration of Brexit.
    Yes and as I said the Tories do not hold a single Holyrood coastal constituency so it is less relevant in May, though it might see them lose a few list MSPs to Ballantyne's Party or UKIP.

    It might be relevant in 2024 in coastal communities the Tories hold MPs in but again I would expect the main movement to be to Farage's Party and UKIP in fishing areas
  • Apologies if this has already been posted. The Chief Political Correspondent for Germany's biggest newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1356149484783366145?s=20

    '...that we are left behind by countries like Italy, Bahrain or the United Arab Emirates...' Presumably the whole thing is an attempt at satire.
  • A May election cycle with no traditional campaigning allowed will be a fascinating experiment. I've been increasingly of the view that digital is taking over from traditional leafleting so proving that people are organised that shouldn't be a dramatic impediment.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2021
    I've just got an email from noreply@test-for-coronavirus.service.gov.uk confirming an appointment to a Covid19 test, with today's date, a time, an address and a QR Code.

    Only issue is I haven't booked a test. The name is right, but the date of birth is not mine - and the address of the appointment is a post code in Northern Ireland.

    Doesn't look like a scam, looks like someone of my name has put in the wrong email perhaps? Can't see any way to report it as incorrect. Would it be best to just ignore it, or is there a way to let someone appropriate know this is wrong? I'm not going over to Northern Ireland for a test I didn't book.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021
    Scott_xP said:
    The concentration on A16 is a total smokescreen. It was just the last of a long line of failings, from threatening to sue AZN because they didn't understand the contract, to not realising that key raw materials for the Pfizer jab comes from the UK and their clever export ban would be screwing over the US, Canada, and Australia as well as us.

    They had already managed to blow off both their feet, A16 was then just stabbing themselves in the leg for good measure.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Valneva SE CFO David Lawrence told the Today Programme that whilst the UK has been in discussions and had signed deals since the summer of 2020, the EU is yet to sign even a letter of intent with the firm, which is headquartered in Paris...

    “Yes they should. Of course it comes down to slots. In turn we have got suppliers and this is why it’s important for example that the UK has exercised its option now, so we have got to book slots with suppliers who are giving us key components for the vaccine. The same will be true of other vaccines, the supply process isn’t something that you can just switch on and switch off over a couple of weeks.”

    The EU are going to be wrecking the aisles again when they find out "their" chocolate buttons have already been sold to somebody else.

    The stupidity of this is remarkable.

    If they didn't realise six months ago that vaccine investment is the most extreme example of a cost/benefit analysis favouring investment that governments have seen this century, they really ought to have done so by now.
    It's a dereliction of duty to the whole world to not have one of the richest parts of it not building new production capacity. We're about to have 600m annual product capacity of various types of vaccine in the UK from what was basically zero last year. If the EU had invested on a similar basis the whole world would have an additional 4bn doses worth of capacity which could be used for the developing world towards the end of the year.

    They EU and its member states have not done their fair share on vaccine development or manufacturing and now European citizens are paying the price, soon the whole world will be paying the price for it because the pandemic rumbles on.
    Even if you completely ignore the humanitarian case, the economic case is absolutely compelling.

    The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks
    https://www.nber.org/papers/w28395#fromrss
    COVID-19 pandemic had a devastating effect on both lives and livelihoods in 2020. The arrival of effective vaccines can be a major game changer. However, vaccines are in short supply as of early 2021 and most of them are reserved for the advanced economies. We show that the global GDP loss of not inoculating all the countries, relative to a counterfactual of global vaccinations, is higher than the cost of manufacturing and distributing vaccines globally. We use an economic-epidemiological framework that combines a SIR model with international production and trade networks. Based on this framework, we estimate the costs for 65 countries and 35 sectors. Our estimates suggest that up to 49 percent of the global economic costs of the pandemic in 2021 are borne by the advanced economies even if they achieve universal vaccination in their own countries....
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,754
    edited February 2021
    kinabalu said:

    Morning all,

    On topic. It's an excellent piece from @Cyclefree but I need to pick up on some of the legal analysis. I've been through the AZ/EU contract with a fine toothbrush and have come to a completely different set of conclusions which are far more favourable to Brussels and cast the situation in a wholly different light. Writing them up now. Watch this space.

    Off topic. There's been a twitter storm here in North London today with an antivax loony spreading the story that Captain Tom Moore (rooting for) had had the vaccine and his now having Covid proved it doesn't work. Tetchy exchanges ensued during which worrying evidence for the claim was presented in the form of a link headlined "Tom gets vaccine". Clicked in and it turns out Tom has indeed had the vaccine. Tom Jones. Can you believe this stuff? Pathetic really. Why why why must people abuse social media this way?

    National scandal if Captain Tom hasn't been vaccinated. Should have had him at the top of the list, with Willy Shakespeare.

    Edit: Ah, see pneumonia/other meds prevented vaccination. Fair enough then
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117

    A May election cycle with no traditional campaigning allowed will be a fascinating experiment. I've been increasingly of the view that digital is taking over from traditional leafleting so proving that people are organised that shouldn't be a dramatic impediment.

    By April traditional leafleting should be allowed again, maybe even canvassing too though in the meantime social media and digital campaigning will be key yes.

    However digital campaigning often tends to just reach those who follow you anyway unless you have an expensive marketing campaign, you still need leaflets to reach the rest and pensioners particularly who are less likely to regularly be online.

    You also still need traditional GOTV on polling day
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117

    HYUFD said:
    But ... but ... but ...

    ... last week you tried telling me that the Conservatives were haemorrhaging support to Labour!

    Another recent poll has the tories 4% ahead with a swing of 7% to the Tories: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-labour-poll-boris-johnson-keir-starmer-vaccine-b1795406.html

    My prediction is that the tories will have a 10% lead in a poll some time in the next 12 months.
    On that poll it would be a hung parliament with the DUP holding the balance of power again, they might even go with Starmer this time if he promises a softer Brexit for the whole UK
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209

    kinabalu said:

    Morning all,

    On topic. It's an excellent piece from @Cyclefree but I need to pick up on some of the legal analysis. I've been through the AZ/EU contract with a fine toothbrush and have come to a completely different set of conclusions which are far more favourable to Brussels and cast the situation in a wholly different light. Writing them up now. Watch this space.

    Off topic. There's been a twitter storm here in North London today with an antivax loony spreading the story that Captain Tom Moore (rooting for) had had the vaccine and his now having Covid proved it doesn't work. Tetchy exchanges ensued during which worrying evidence for the claim was presented in the form of a link headlined "Tom gets vaccine". Clicked in and it turns out Tom has indeed had the vaccine. Tom Jones. Can you believe this stuff? Pathetic really. Why why why must people abuse social media this way?

    You can't go on the roads without a driving test - to show you won't kill people.

    Hammer on the keyboard and you can help kill thousands.

    Can't help but think that if the internet had been launched fully formed on Day One with a big fanfare, it wouldn't necessarily look like it does today. There might have been a bit more thought given to complete arseholes facing a STFU button, for example.
    Oh dear! Not you as well.

    Max is a very serious-minded poster so I feel a bit bad if he thought I was actually about to launch onto PB a whole new interpretation of the AstraZeneca contract.

    But you are always posting tongue-in-cheek stuff so no excuse I'm afraid.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    kamski said:

    Endillion said:

    kamski said:

    felix said:

    kamski said:

    Good Header. The EU commission has been rubbish. And, from a German perspective, Merkel has seemingly been absent, as she has been throughout this pandemic. I would have expected a bit more leadership from the German chancellor.

    From a wider perspective, and ignoring the current spat which I suspect will have little effect on the vaccination rollout (though obviously damaging to relationships and the Commission's reputation), how would things be if there had been no EU vaccine procurement? I guess some countries would have done better, others worse, but either way we'd probably have a massive mess with neighboring countries arguing over whose orders should be reduced the least.

    It makes sense for Britain to do its own thing being an island. It also makes sense for Britain to try and get the whole island of Ireland vaccinated, as that is where the only UK land border is.

    I wouldn't expect the UK to offer spare vaccines to the rest of the EU, though a gesture might be worth it as a way to try to get the UK included back into the "European solidarity" which it people think it has withdrawn itself from.

    If I hear the crap about 'solidarity' one more time. There is no issue with the EU scheme other than it has chosen to replace speed and variety at slightly higher cost with bureaucracy and delay at every possible juncture. Even had things gone smoothly the response has been slow. They have added to this the nasty little swipes against a vaccine purely because of its supposed 'english ' links providing fuel for anti-vax sentiment in an already sceptical population. Less slogans please and more action. Take your solidarity and place it where the sun cannot reach!
    European solidarity is a real thing, though it might be misused. I have noticed its existence, even if you haven't. So you can stick your narrowminded blindness wherever you like.

    Lots of people feel that they are part of a European "family" and that the UK has chosen to leave. That is just how people feel. TBH most people are not very interested in what happens in the UK, which I think is a pity, but that is how it is now.
    I think part of the point is that the constant need to repeat "solidarity" etc provides us with a clue as to how much of it is really floating around.
    Maybe, but I just wrote something from my perspective here on the continent, which didn't say anything I would consider controversial or unreasonable, without insulting anyone, but the words "European solidarity" seem to need a trigger warning for some people!
    My experience of living in Spain among many Spanish friends is rather different. And repeating slogans about solidarity does not put jabs in arms. Spain [pop 46m] received 52k doses yesterday with another 800k by the end of February. The UK vaccinated more than 600k yesterday. Here where I live [Andalucia] the figures are frightening and show no sign of diminishing. That is why slogans are utterly meaningless.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2021

    I've just got an email from noreply@test-for-coronavirus.service.gov.uk confirming an appointment to a Covid19 test, with today's date, a time, an address and a QR Code.

    Only issue is I haven't booked a test. The name is right, but the date of birth is not mine - and the address of the appointment is a post code in Northern Ireland.

    Doesn't look like a scam, looks like someone of my name has put in the wrong email perhaps? Can't see any way to report it as incorrect. Would it be best to just ignore it, or is there a way to let someone appropriate know this is wrong? I'm not going over to Northern Ireland for a test I didn't book.

    Is your email address something based on your name? If so, perhaps the NI person with the same name might have a similar email address, and mistyped it and accidentally hit yours.

    I can't see that there's anything you can do other than ignore it.
  • I've just got an email from noreply@test-for-coronavirus.service.gov.uk confirming an appointment to a Covid19 test, with today's date, a time, an address and a QR Code.

    Only issue is I haven't booked a test. The name is right, but the date of birth is not mine - and the address of the appointment is a post code in Northern Ireland.

    Doesn't look like a scam, looks like someone of my name has put in the wrong email perhaps? Can't see any way to report it as incorrect. Would it be best to just ignore it, or is there a way to let someone appropriate know this is wrong? I'm not going over to Northern Ireland for a test I didn't book.

    Definitely coming from that address? Not being spoofed?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,550
    edited February 2021

    I've just got an email from noreply@test-for-coronavirus.service.gov.uk confirming an appointment to a Covid19 test, with today's date, a time, an address and a QR Code.

    Only issue is I haven't booked a test. The name is right, but the date of birth is not mine - and the address of the appointment is a post code in Northern Ireland.

    Doesn't look like a scam, looks like someone of my name has put in the wrong email perhaps? Can't see any way to report it as incorrect. Would it be best to just ignore it, or is there a way to let someone appropriate know this is wrong? I'm not going over to Northern Ireland for a test I didn't book.

    Mystery without an obvious solution. An issue this is an example of is the abuse of power by people who feel free to send emails with inexplicable contents but don't allow you to reply to them It's a growing menace and an inequality of power.

  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    felix said:

    kamski said:

    felix said:

    kamski said:

    Good Header. The EU commission has been rubbish. And, from a German perspective, Merkel has seemingly been absent, as she has been throughout this pandemic. I would have expected a bit more leadership from the German chancellor.

    From a wider perspective, and ignoring the current spat which I suspect will have little effect on the vaccination rollout (though obviously damaging to relationships and the Commission's reputation), how would things be if there had been no EU vaccine procurement? I guess some countries would have done better, others worse, but either way we'd probably have a massive mess with neighboring countries arguing over whose orders should be reduced the least.

    It makes sense for Britain to do its own thing being an island. It also makes sense for Britain to try and get the whole island of Ireland vaccinated, as that is where the only UK land border is.

    I wouldn't expect the UK to offer spare vaccines to the rest of the EU, though a gesture might be worth it as a way to try to get the UK included back into the "European solidarity" which it people think it has withdrawn itself from.

    If I hear the crap about 'solidarity' one more time. There is no issue with the EU scheme other than it has chosen to replace speed and variety at slightly higher cost with bureaucracy and delay at every possible juncture. Even had things gone smoothly the response has been slow. They have added to this the nasty little swipes against a vaccine purely because of its supposed 'english ' links providing fuel for anti-vax sentiment in an already sceptical population. Less slogans please and more action. Take your solidarity and place it where the sun cannot reach!
    European solidarity is a real thing, though it might be misused. I have noticed its existence, even if you haven't. So you can stick your narrowminded blindness wherever you like.

    Lots of people feel that they are part of a European "family" and that the UK has chosen to leave. That is just how people feel. TBH most people are not very interested in what happens in the UK, which I think is a pity, but that is how it is now.
    European solidarity is a sentiment. The vaccination shambles is a matter of life and death.
    And? Did you even read my first post, or did you just see the words "European solidarity" and go to pieces?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Scott_xP said:
    Would any of us accept that answer from politician X we dislike? I doubt it.
  • fox327 said:

    In the absence of a healthcare system the pandemic will follow its natural course. This involves several waves, a few mutations, and eventual decline or cessation of the pandemic. Pandemics are self-limiting catastrophic phenomena. The way poorer countries are reacting is not designed to contain the pandemic, but it is likely based on instinctive behaviour. The need to eat and reproduce comes first in nature. They choose their priorities and we choose ours.
    Pandemics are only self-limiting in a "in the long run we are all dead" kind of way.

    Without interventions pandemics can run for years.

    The only responsible way to act is to vaccinate everyone we can, eliminate the virus from this country, put in place a proper quarantine-on-entry system to prevent reimportation of a new variant (even if it bankrupts holiday firms, sorry), get back to normal within this country and then work to help the rest of the world catch up with us so that we can drop the quarantine in the future.
  • Door-to-door testing for the South African variant of coronavirus is to start in Surrey after cases were found with no known links with travel or previous cases.

    So far, cases of the variant in the UK had been traced back to South Africa – but experts say two people in Woking found with the variant have no such known links.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Would any of us accept that answer from politician X we dislike? I doubt it.
    It would make for an entertaining PMQs....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    This whole debate is a crock of shit. It's not Lockdowns that depress Covid it's Distancing. If there was a way to get the same Distancing without Lockdown then Lockdown would not be needed. But in the society we live in - being this one rather than one cooked up in the imagination - there wasn't and there isn't. So the tool kit had to include Lockdowns. You can take up different positions on timing, extent, guidance vs law, messaging, how policed, economic support, this sort of thing. All perfectly valid and interesting. But you cannot argue that Distancing (via Lockdowns) is not required to fight Covid. The virus spreads less if people keep apart. To say or imply otherwise is anti-science and anti-truth. The people who do it fall into one of only two categories. (i) Know they're lying. Charlatans and Trolls. (ii) Do not know they're lying. Morons.
    Spot on.
    Thanks. How's your eye?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    edited February 2021
    Good news: my 74 year old dad has got his vaccine appointment for Thursday in Woking.

    Bad news: the Saffa variant is in Woking.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    felix said:

    kamski said:

    Endillion said:

    kamski said:

    felix said:

    kamski said:

    Good Header. The EU commission has been rubbish. And, from a German perspective, Merkel has seemingly been absent, as she has been throughout this pandemic. I would have expected a bit more leadership from the German chancellor.

    From a wider perspective, and ignoring the current spat which I suspect will have little effect on the vaccination rollout (though obviously damaging to relationships and the Commission's reputation), how would things be if there had been no EU vaccine procurement? I guess some countries would have done better, others worse, but either way we'd probably have a massive mess with neighboring countries arguing over whose orders should be reduced the least.

    It makes sense for Britain to do its own thing being an island. It also makes sense for Britain to try and get the whole island of Ireland vaccinated, as that is where the only UK land border is.

    I wouldn't expect the UK to offer spare vaccines to the rest of the EU, though a gesture might be worth it as a way to try to get the UK included back into the "European solidarity" which it people think it has withdrawn itself from.

    If I hear the crap about 'solidarity' one more time. There is no issue with the EU scheme other than it has chosen to replace speed and variety at slightly higher cost with bureaucracy and delay at every possible juncture. Even had things gone smoothly the response has been slow. They have added to this the nasty little swipes against a vaccine purely because of its supposed 'english ' links providing fuel for anti-vax sentiment in an already sceptical population. Less slogans please and more action. Take your solidarity and place it where the sun cannot reach!
    European solidarity is a real thing, though it might be misused. I have noticed its existence, even if you haven't. So you can stick your narrowminded blindness wherever you like.

    Lots of people feel that they are part of a European "family" and that the UK has chosen to leave. That is just how people feel. TBH most people are not very interested in what happens in the UK, which I think is a pity, but that is how it is now.
    I think part of the point is that the constant need to repeat "solidarity" etc provides us with a clue as to how much of it is really floating around.
    Maybe, but I just wrote something from my perspective here on the continent, which didn't say anything I would consider controversial or unreasonable, without insulting anyone, but the words "European solidarity" seem to need a trigger warning for some people!
    My experience of living in Spain among many Spanish friends is rather different. And repeating slogans about solidarity does not put jabs in arms. Spain [pop 46m] received 52k doses yesterday with another 800k by the end of February. The UK vaccinated more than 600k yesterday. Here where I live [Andalucia] the figures are frightening and show no sign of diminishing. That is why slogans are utterly meaningless.
    800k in this month? Seems a low target even if only doing 50k a day assuming no big supplies come in.
  • I've just got an email from noreply@test-for-coronavirus.service.gov.uk confirming an appointment to a Covid19 test, with today's date, a time, an address and a QR Code.

    Only issue is I haven't booked a test. The name is right, but the date of birth is not mine - and the address of the appointment is a post code in Northern Ireland.

    Doesn't look like a scam, looks like someone of my name has put in the wrong email perhaps? Can't see any way to report it as incorrect. Would it be best to just ignore it, or is there a way to let someone appropriate know this is wrong? I'm not going over to Northern Ireland for a test I didn't book.

    Definitely coming from that address? Not being spoofed?
    It isn't phishing for any information so I don't think its a spoof. The only hyperlinks are to 2 YouTube videos about the test, a link for if you need a BSL interpreter and at the bottom asking if you're over 50 you can volunteer for a clinical trial at https://www.principletrial.org/

    If its a spoof phishing scam then its very sophisticated but I'm missing the point of it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    Floater said:
    You have to wonder: HOW stupid?

    Yes, you can have AZ product from UK facilities. Once the UK contracts have been met.

    Not before.
  • tlg86 said:

    Good news: my 74 year old dad has got his vaccine appointment for Thursday in Woking.

    Bad news: the Saffa variant is in Woking.

    We are going to need those updated vaccines sharpish.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited February 2021
    Delete
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    Apologies if this has already been posted. The Chief Political Correspondent for Germany's biggest newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1356149484783366145?s=20

    Someone was muttering something about 'solidarity' earlier...
  • Scott_xP said:
    Field work 19th - 25th January.

    The next one will be interesting......
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    This whole debate is a crock of shit. It's not Lockdowns that depress Covid it's Distancing. If there was a way to get the same Distancing without Lockdown then Lockdown would not be needed. But in the society we live in - being this one rather than one cooked up in the imagination - there wasn't and there isn't. So the tool kit had to include Lockdowns. You can take up different positions on timing, extent, guidance vs law, messaging, how policed, economic support, this sort of thing. All perfectly valid and interesting. But you cannot argue that Distancing (via Lockdowns) is not required to fight Covid. The virus spreads less if people keep apart. To say or imply otherwise is anti-science and anti-truth. The people who do it fall into one of only two categories. (i) Know they're lying. Charlatans and Trolls. (ii) Do not know they're lying. Morons.
    Spot on.
    Thanks. How's your eye?
    So far so food. Still can`t see usefully out of it but it is expected to improved as days/weeks go by. Fingers-crossed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021
    'The New European' the newspaper has been bought by its management from the UK regional publisher Archant....and say they will expand into Europe.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning all,

    On topic. It's an excellent piece from @Cyclefree but I need to pick up on some of the legal analysis. I've been through the AZ/EU contract with a fine toothbrush and have come to a completely different set of conclusions which are far more favourable to Brussels and cast the situation in a wholly different light. Writing them up now. Watch this space.

    Off topic. There's been a twitter storm here in North London today with an antivax loony spreading the story that Captain Tom Moore (rooting for) had had the vaccine and his now having Covid proved it doesn't work. Tetchy exchanges ensued during which worrying evidence for the claim was presented in the form of a link headlined "Tom gets vaccine". Clicked in and it turns out Tom has indeed had the vaccine. Tom Jones. Can you believe this stuff? Pathetic really. Why why why must people abuse social media this way?

    You can't go on the roads without a driving test - to show you won't kill people.

    Hammer on the keyboard and you can help kill thousands.

    Can't help but think that if the internet had been launched fully formed on Day One with a big fanfare, it wouldn't necessarily look like it does today. There might have been a bit more thought given to complete arseholes facing a STFU button, for example.
    Oh dear! Not you as well.

    Max is a very serious-minded poster so I feel a bit bad if he thought I was actually about to launch onto PB a whole new interpretation of the AstraZeneca contract.

    But you are always posting tongue-in-cheek stuff so no excuse I'm afraid.
    Please, dont take the "complete arseholes facing a STFU button" personally.

    /TongueInCheekMode
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    The BBC say that they’re going to do door to door testing of 9,000 households in Woking. That must be about a third of households so will be interesting to see if we’re tested.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    Floater said:
    You have to wonder: HOW stupid?

    Yes, you can have AZ product from UK facilities. Once the UK contracts have been met.

    Not before.
    She's trying to get people to as 2+2 and get 93.24 with the extra 9m doses and Boris giving her an empty promise.

    Honestly, the whole fiasco completely shames the EU and the commission.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    kamski said:

    felix said:

    kamski said:

    felix said:

    kamski said:

    Good Header. The EU commission has been rubbish. And, from a German perspective, Merkel has seemingly been absent, as she has been throughout this pandemic. I would have expected a bit more leadership from the German chancellor.

    From a wider perspective, and ignoring the current spat which I suspect will have little effect on the vaccination rollout (though obviously damaging to relationships and the Commission's reputation), how would things be if there had been no EU vaccine procurement? I guess some countries would have done better, others worse, but either way we'd probably have a massive mess with neighboring countries arguing over whose orders should be reduced the least.

    It makes sense for Britain to do its own thing being an island. It also makes sense for Britain to try and get the whole island of Ireland vaccinated, as that is where the only UK land border is.

    I wouldn't expect the UK to offer spare vaccines to the rest of the EU, though a gesture might be worth it as a way to try to get the UK included back into the "European solidarity" which it people think it has withdrawn itself from.

    If I hear the crap about 'solidarity' one more time. There is no issue with the EU scheme other than it has chosen to replace speed and variety at slightly higher cost with bureaucracy and delay at every possible juncture. Even had things gone smoothly the response has been slow. They have added to this the nasty little swipes against a vaccine purely because of its supposed 'english ' links providing fuel for anti-vax sentiment in an already sceptical population. Less slogans please and more action. Take your solidarity and place it where the sun cannot reach!
    European solidarity is a real thing, though it might be misused. I have noticed its existence, even if you haven't. So you can stick your narrowminded blindness wherever you like.

    Lots of people feel that they are part of a European "family" and that the UK has chosen to leave. That is just how people feel. TBH most people are not very interested in what happens in the UK, which I think is a pity, but that is how it is now.
    European solidarity is a sentiment. The vaccination shambles is a matter of life and death.
    And? Did you even read my first post, or did you just see the words "European solidarity" and go to pieces?
    Not at all - I made the point that slogans do not vaccinations give and offended your sensibility. Job done.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2021

    I've just got an email from noreply@test-for-coronavirus.service.gov.uk confirming an appointment to a Covid19 test, with today's date, a time, an address and a QR Code.

    Only issue is I haven't booked a test. The name is right, but the date of birth is not mine - and the address of the appointment is a post code in Northern Ireland.

    Doesn't look like a scam, looks like someone of my name has put in the wrong email perhaps? Can't see any way to report it as incorrect. Would it be best to just ignore it, or is there a way to let someone appropriate know this is wrong? I'm not going over to Northern Ireland for a test I didn't book.

    Is your email address something based on your name? If so, perhaps the NI person with the same name might have a similar email address, and mistyped it and accidentally hit yours.

    I can't see that there's anything you can do other than ignore it.
    Yes, it pretty much is my name. I have had the email address for nearly two decades, got a Beta invitation to sign up for an email address before it was fully public so actually managed to get my name as my email address despite it being two of the least unique names in the world.

    Will ignore it, hope my namesake is healthy and gets their own test sorted.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,550

    HYUFD said:
    Old boundaries? If so, new boundaries might still be giving a Tory majority.
    I'm probably missing something exciting about this but a Tory seat prediction in the range 227-394 doesn't have you on the edge of your seat, and I could come up with a figure like that without even a back of an envelope to work on.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021

    Scott_xP said:
    Field work 19th - 25th January.

    The next one will be interesting......
    I predicted several days ago and still think this, we won't necessarily see much of a move, because most of the coverage was about the EU shouting at AZN not playing fair and export ban was spun by more Remain friendly media as just hypothetical.

    If they had blocked vaccine exports and grannies started dying because they didn't get their jab, then we would see a big move.

    What it has done though is anybody brings up rejoining, loads of ammo for those wishing to remain out, to say just look how the EU was willing to act.
  • HYUFD said:
    But ... but ... but ...

    ... last week you tried telling me that the Conservatives were haemorrhaging support to Labour!

    Another recent poll has the tories 4% ahead with a swing of 7% to the Tories: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-labour-poll-boris-johnson-keir-starmer-vaccine-b1795406.html

    My prediction is that the tories will have a 10% lead in a poll some time in the next 12 months.
    The last year they didnt have a 10% lead in at some point was 2014, so it would not be surprising if it happened again in 2021. Far too much attention on opinion polling so far ahead of an election imo. Both parties perform worse because of this obsession.
  • felix said:

    Apologies if this has already been posted. The Chief Political Correspondent for Germany's biggest newspaper:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1356149484783366145?s=20

    Someone was muttering something about 'solidarity' earlier...
    For some reason the catastrofuck of the EU vaccine negotiation keeps being used as proof that we were right to leave the EEA. I don't get it, unless like Big G they don't know the difference.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220

    Floater said:
    You have to wonder: HOW stupid?

    Yes, you can have AZ product from UK facilities. Once the UK contracts have been met.

    Not before.
    That does not seem to be quite correct.
    AZN appears to have provided UvdL with a small figleaf, which no doubt will be presented as a triumph on her part.

    Covid: EU and AstraZeneca in 'step forward' on vaccines
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55879345
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021
    Community transmission of Saffers COVID....takes minds back to this time last year....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209

    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    This whole debate is a crock of shit. It's not Lockdowns that depress Covid it's Distancing. If there was a way to get the same Distancing without Lockdown then Lockdown would not be needed. But in the society we live in - being this one rather than one cooked up in the imagination - there wasn't and there isn't. So the tool kit had to include Lockdowns. You can take up different positions on timing, extent, guidance vs law, messaging, how policed, economic support, this sort of thing. All perfectly valid and interesting. But you cannot argue that Distancing (via Lockdowns) is not required to fight Covid. The virus spreads less if people keep apart. To say or imply otherwise is anti-science and anti-truth. The people who do it fall into one of only two categories. (i) Know they're lying. Charlatans and Trolls. (ii) Do not know they're lying. Morons.
    Lockdowns are only necessary if other measures have failed.

    Had we had mandatory hotel quarantines in the summer when cases were nearly eradicated in parts of the country then its entirely possible the virus would have been eliminated and there wouldn't have been a second wave.
    Maybe so. And if we could turn the clock right back - close the borders entirely plus a rigorous test trace & isolate regime before the virus got going here in the 1st place.

    What a fantastic decision that would have been. But it's always very hard politically to go out on a limb and contra the herd.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,754
    "as effective... as possible"

    It's a bit like the reports that "Johnson did his best"

    Sometimes, it's just not good enough.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220
    Why are grandiose narcissists more effective at organizational politics? Means, motive, and opportunity
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0191886920307480
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,725

    Scott_xP said:
    Field work 19th - 25th January.

    The next one will be interesting......
    I voted to remain for the sake of our Children and our children's children and so on and so forth. If I was polled now, what the EU and especially the fffing frogs have been doing to make life difficult, I would vote leave, irrespective of the consequences. F the lot of them.. Barnier, van Leyden, Delors (if he is still alive,)and especially the French.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,588
    edited February 2021
    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    This whole debate is a crock of shit. It's not Lockdowns that depress Covid it's Distancing. If there was a way to get the same Distancing without Lockdown then Lockdown would not be needed. But in the society we live in - being this one rather than one cooked up in the imagination - there wasn't and there isn't. So the tool kit had to include Lockdowns. You can take up different positions on timing, extent, guidance vs law, messaging, how policed, economic support, this sort of thing. All perfectly valid and interesting. But you cannot argue that Distancing (via Lockdowns) is not required to fight Covid. The virus spreads less if people keep apart. To say or imply otherwise is anti-science and anti-truth. The people who do it fall into one of only two categories. (i) Know they're lying. Charlatans and Trolls. (ii) Do not know they're lying. Morons.
    What do you mean by "the society we live in" — that people are irresponsible compared to places like Taiwan?
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    This whole debate is a crock of shit. It's not Lockdowns that depress Covid it's Distancing. If there was a way to get the same Distancing without Lockdown then Lockdown would not be needed. But in the society we live in - being this one rather than one cooked up in the imagination - there wasn't and there isn't. So the tool kit had to include Lockdowns. You can take up different positions on timing, extent, guidance vs law, messaging, how policed, economic support, this sort of thing. All perfectly valid and interesting. But you cannot argue that Distancing (via Lockdowns) is not required to fight Covid. The virus spreads less if people keep apart. To say or imply otherwise is anti-science and anti-truth. The people who do it fall into one of only two categories. (i) Know they're lying. Charlatans and Trolls. (ii) Do not know they're lying. Morons.
    Lockdowns are only necessary if other measures have failed.

    Had we had mandatory hotel quarantines in the summer when cases were nearly eradicated in parts of the country then its entirely possible the virus would have been eliminated and there wouldn't have been a second wave.
    Maybe so. And if we could turn the clock right back - close the borders entirely plus a rigorous test trace & isolate regime before the virus got going here in the 1st place.

    What a fantastic decision that would have been. But it's always very hard politically to go out on a limb and contra the herd.
    Indeed.

    But we should do so today to prevent Saffer and other variants coming in. Immediate hotel quarantine for a fortnight for anyone coming in abroad. Only exemption certificates for hauliers and related.

    If that means LFC and others forfeit the Champions League this season then so be it. 😥
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning all,

    On topic. It's an excellent piece from @Cyclefree but I need to pick up on some of the legal analysis. I've been through the AZ/EU contract with a fine toothbrush and have come to a completely different set of conclusions which are far more favourable to Brussels and cast the situation in a wholly different light. Writing them up now. Watch this space.

    Off topic. There's been a twitter storm here in North London today with an antivax loony spreading the story that Captain Tom Moore (rooting for) had had the vaccine and his now having Covid proved it doesn't work. Tetchy exchanges ensued during which worrying evidence for the claim was presented in the form of a link headlined "Tom gets vaccine". Clicked in and it turns out Tom has indeed had the vaccine. Tom Jones. Can you believe this stuff? Pathetic really. Why why why must people abuse social media this way?

    Cyclefree is a lawyer, you aren't. She has the expert opinion here, you have the pro-EU, Britain hating agenda fuelled predetermined conclusion.

    Sorry mate, all of the lawyers have opined on this in favour of AZ, including remain voting ones like David Allen Green.
    That was a joke from me, Max.
    "Went through the contract with a fine toothbrush?"
    :smile:
    You should have made this clearer by using a "fine loo-brush".
  • Community transmission of Saffers COVID....takes minds back to this time last year....

    Indeed.

    Difference is we have learnt lessons, can do three quarters of a million tests in a day and have a vaccine that's mostly effective.

    Shut the f***ing border now until the world catches up. Lets stamp it out and END RESTRICTIONS in this country.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    algarkirk said:

    I've just got an email from noreply@test-for-coronavirus.service.gov.uk confirming an appointment to a Covid19 test, with today's date, a time, an address and a QR Code.

    Only issue is I haven't booked a test. The name is right, but the date of birth is not mine - and the address of the appointment is a post code in Northern Ireland.

    Doesn't look like a scam, looks like someone of my name has put in the wrong email perhaps? Can't see any way to report it as incorrect. Would it be best to just ignore it, or is there a way to let someone appropriate know this is wrong? I'm not going over to Northern Ireland for a test I didn't book.

    Mystery without an obvious solution. An issue this is an example of is the abuse of power by people who feel free to send emails with inexplicable contents but don't allow you to reply to them It's a growing menace and an inequality of power.

    That has been standard on automatic emails since about 1995. Once you are sending things in bulk (as the Covid testing website is) you don't care about individual emails you just care about delivery targets (x% received, y% opened and read).

    From memory the appointment details are displayed on the web page when the appointment is booked so I wouldn't be worrying about it.
This discussion has been closed.