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Crisis Management: EU-style – politicalbetting.com

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  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,550
    Excellent article. Thank you. This won't be the last headline case which reminds everyone apart from the extremes that the nature of the EU is such a mixed blessing that when we were asked the straight in or out question in 2016 there was, and is, no right answer.

    Which ought to make the discussion more considered and careful than it has been.
  • Scott_xP said:

    eek said:

    A lot of Brexiteers are discovering that that disruption and adjustment equals their bankruptcy...

    And if they are annoyed about it you can imagine how those who voted to remain feel about the bankruptcy that disruption and adjustment is doing to their business.

    https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1356146540734246912
    Before Christmas I said that industry had assumed no deal and acted accordingly. And as the last paragraph of that notes, they were right to do so:

    "“The game has changed,” he said, adding that UK Plc had been based on the free flowing movement of goods. “This is a hard Brexit, this is as hard as you can get without no deal. And the consequence of that is, there’s just a lot to do."

    No deal would have added tariffs on top for everything as opposed to just some things. The damage is still done though thanks to the very large cost of trying everyone up in red tape.
    Prior to Christmas the Government was telling business to prepare for No Deal.

    So the fact that business did is a good thing not a bad thing. There's been some disruption, the border is still flowing, your worst case catastrophising hasn't happened and life has moved on.

    I was right. I told you so.
  • All this additional paperwork...worth remembering back a few years.

    When the EU came up with their ridiculous rules for VAT on digital goods, where as a seller you had to collect the VAT at 28 different rates, act as the VAT policeman and do all the checking for origin of the purchaser and of course file all the paperwork for this stupid scheme.

    I own a digital business in the EU and if interviewed at the time I would have said very difficult to continue to do business there etc.

    Fairly quickly software was developed that did all this for you and we just hooked it into our systems.

    Also for really tiny suppliers they were able to leverage the tech of big platforms like Amazon to handle it for them.

    At a cost of giving Amazon free market data to the extent that if the tiny firm is very successful and ever threatens to become a medium size firm, Amazon copy them and use their scale advantages to steal the expected growth from the tiny firm.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,462
    Battery Sergeant Major Williams' comment is apposite, I think.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,754
    Pulpstar said:

    Lol just had a twitter strike against me due to suggesting a snowflake antivaxxer should skydive without a parachute.

    And there aren't even any RCTs showing parachute efficacy :wink:
  • Mr. Pioneers, precisely. You cannot prepare for something you don't know the specifics of. That's made the transition far harder than it needed to be.

    Mr. Urquhart, aye but don't forget that VAT nonsense was because the EU wanted to hit Amazon for taxes. Instead of which they hit small businesses and drove them onto marketplace websites.

    Like Amazon.
  • All this additional paperwork...worth remembering back a few years.

    When the EU came up with their ridiculous rules for VAT on digital goods, where as a seller you had to collect the VAT at 28 different rates, act as the VAT policeman and do all the checking for origin of the purchaser and of course file all the paperwork for this stupid scheme.

    I own a digital business in the EU and if interviewed at the time I would have said very difficult to continue to do business there etc.

    Fairly quickly software was developed that did all this for you and we just hooked it into our systems.

    Also for really tiny suppliers they were able to leverage the tech of big platforms like Amazon to handle it for them.

    At a cost of giving Amazon free market data to the extent that if the tiny firm is very successful and ever threatens to become a medium size firm, Amazon copy them and use their scale advantages to steal the expected growth from the tiny firm.
    Only the tiniest seller leverage Amazon, not the sort of people Amazon care about at all. As I say, my company just invested in the software, it wasn't particularly expensive and automatically produces all the correct paperwork in the required format.
  • Mr. Punter, hmm..

    That sounds suspiciously like my dad. Who also got his vaccination letter today.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    Not only are coronavirus vaccines a great British success story, but they are a great EU failure story, and that failure is a tectonic event that changes the landscape not just in Britain but across Europe.

    One of the underappreciated facts of Britain leaving the EU, whatever we think of it in Britain, is that it was a disaster for the EU. For the past five years, EU leaders have been icily polite about it – “if you must” – but have tried to carry on as if nothing has changed. That is much harder now.

    That is changing politics on the continent. The approval ratings for Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats in Germany are on a steep downward slope. And it will change politics in the UK too. All this time one of the weaknesses of the Leavers’ case was their difficulty in spelling out the benefits of Brexit. Ending free movement of people and some abstractions about sovereignty were all that they could offer against the certain costs of unforgiving economics.


    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/covid-vaccine-boris-johnson-eu-astrazeneca-b1795133.html

    Scott will hate this
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220
    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021

    Mr. Pioneers, precisely. You cannot prepare for something you don't know the specifics of. That's made the transition far harder than it needed to be.

    Mr. Urquhart, aye but don't forget that VAT nonsense was because the EU wanted to hit Amazon for taxes. Instead of which they hit small businesses and drove them onto marketplace websites.

    Like Amazon.

    Oh it was classic EU....aimed at Amazon, were told repeatedly what they were doing was stupid and wouldn't have the desired outcome....and still pulled the trigger on a ridiculous new law.

    I haven't kept up, but are they planning an even more stupid set of regulations on copyright on the internet? That will again not actually get the people they want and just cause mayham for small content creators.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,798
    edited February 2021

    Scott_xP said:

    eek said:

    A lot of Brexiteers are discovering that that disruption and adjustment equals their bankruptcy...

    And if they are annoyed about it you can imagine how those who voted to remain feel about the bankruptcy that disruption and adjustment is doing to their business.

    https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1356146540734246912
    Before Christmas I said that industry had assumed no deal and acted accordingly. And as the last paragraph of that notes, they were right to do so:

    "“The game has changed,” he said, adding that UK Plc had been based on the free flowing movement of goods. “This is a hard Brexit, this is as hard as you can get without no deal. And the consequence of that is, there’s just a lot to do."

    No deal would have added tariffs on top for everything as opposed to just some things. The damage is still done though thanks to the very large cost of trying everyone up in red tape.
    Prior to Christmas the Government was telling business to prepare for No Deal.

    So the fact that business did is a good thing not a bad thing. There's been some disruption, the border is still flowing, your worst case catastrophising hasn't happened and life has moved on.

    I was right. I told you so.
    Telling people to prepare for something is one thing (and easy to say), doing it is another and much of it impossible because even with no deal they didn't know what they had to do.

    The Pharmaceutical Industry had its scenarios worked out, but every one of them stopped at the point where they needed feedback from the Government on what they needed to do, which never came.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Btw, just got my notification for the jab - tomorrow in Cheltenham at 3.00 pm.

    I mention this not just so that you can all rejoice that your favorite poster will soon become very much safer but so you can judge for yourself how soon you too may be receiving it. I'm 72 with no serious underlying conditions apart from chronic baldness and verbal diarrhoea. My impression is that Gloucestershire is one of the better counties on rollout but probably not by much and in the context of a brilliant vaccine and rollout performance nationally even average would be very good indeed.

    You cannot imagine how pleased and grateful I am to all the many responsible.

    Excellent news
  • Btw, just got my notification for the jab - tomorrow in Cheltenham at 3.00 pm.

    I mention this not just so that you can all rejoice that your favorite poster will soon become very much safer but so you can judge for yourself how soon you too may be receiving it. I'm 72 with no serious underlying conditions apart from chronic baldness and verbal diarrhoea. My impression is that Gloucestershire is one of the better counties on rollout but probably not by much and in the context of a brilliant vaccine and rollout performance nationally even average would be very good indeed.

    You cannot imagine how pleased and grateful I am to all the many responsible.

    A number of my extended family are in a similar category to you and are getting their jabs this week.
  • Scott_xP said:

    eek said:

    A lot of Brexiteers are discovering that that disruption and adjustment equals their bankruptcy...

    And if they are annoyed about it you can imagine how those who voted to remain feel about the bankruptcy that disruption and adjustment is doing to their business.

    https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1356146540734246912
    Before Christmas I said that industry had assumed no deal and acted accordingly. And as the last paragraph of that notes, they were right to do so:

    "“The game has changed,” he said, adding that UK Plc had been based on the free flowing movement of goods. “This is a hard Brexit, this is as hard as you can get without no deal. And the consequence of that is, there’s just a lot to do."

    No deal would have added tariffs on top for everything as opposed to just some things. The damage is still done though thanks to the very large cost of trying everyone up in red tape.
    Prior to Christmas the Government was telling business to prepare for No Deal.

    So the fact that business did is a good thing not a bad thing. There's been some disruption, the border is still flowing, your worst case catastrophising hasn't happened and life has moved on.

    I was right. I told you so.
    Difficult for them to have prepared for a Border Operating Reality that was so different to the published Border Operating Model. The preparation they did was to import by the fuckton before the end of the year.

    Which is why the "border is still flowing". When you're down to around a third of normal traffic, and 40-50% of trucks are now returning empty, you have to be an absolute Philip to think that is working and that you are right.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Scott_xP said:

    eek said:

    A lot of Brexiteers are discovering that that disruption and adjustment equals their bankruptcy...

    And if they are annoyed about it you can imagine how those who voted to remain feel about the bankruptcy that disruption and adjustment is doing to their business.

    https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1356146540734246912
    Before Christmas I said that industry had assumed no deal and acted accordingly. And as the last paragraph of that notes, they were right to do so:

    "“The game has changed,” he said, adding that UK Plc had been based on the free flowing movement of goods. “This is a hard Brexit, this is as hard as you can get without no deal. And the consequence of that is, there’s just a lot to do."

    No deal would have added tariffs on top for everything as opposed to just some things. The damage is still done though thanks to the very large cost of trying everyone up in red tape.
    Prior to Christmas the Government was telling business to prepare for No Deal.

    So the fact that business did is a good thing not a bad thing. There's been some disruption, the border is still flowing, your worst case catastrophising hasn't happened and life has moved on.

    I was right. I told you so.
    Because doing what the government tells us is the greatest political good to which we can aspire, even if it turns out to be wrong?

    You weren't right, you weren't anything, because you did not know what would happen and you needed to keep your optionds open so that you could tell us ex post facto that whatever turned out to happen, was the best thing that could have happened all along.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021
    Valneva SE CFO David Lawrence told the Today Programme that whilst the UK has been in discussions and had signed deals since the summer of 2020, the EU is yet to sign even a letter of intent with the firm, which is headquartered in Paris...

    “Yes they should. Of course it comes down to slots. In turn we have got suppliers and this is why it’s important for example that the UK has exercised its option now, so we have got to book slots with suppliers who are giving us key components for the vaccine. The same will be true of other vaccines, the supply process isn’t something that you can just switch on and switch off over a couple of weeks.”

    The EU are going to be wrecking the aisles again when they find out "their" chocolate buttons have already been sold to somebody else.
  • timpletimple Posts: 123
    Good article, except the conclusion. The spat has shown EU member countries the commission is taking it seriously, and yes, emotions have run high in the Berlymont leading to mistakes. The UK government has played exactly the same card over the last few years to it's supporters and citizens. The difference is the UK kept up the mistake instead of course correcting quickly. If I was a EU citizen I would take the signal that the commission is now focussed on getting these vaccines.
  • Mr. Pioneers, precisely. You cannot prepare for something you don't know the specifics of. That's made the transition far harder than it needed to be.

    Mr. Urquhart, aye but don't forget that VAT nonsense was because the EU wanted to hit Amazon for taxes. Instead of which they hit small businesses and drove them onto marketplace websites.

    Like Amazon.

    If only Amazon were a company that trading with was easy. For so many businesses they pretty much have to be on the Amazon platform. Despite it being absurdly expensive (18% of sale price in fees!) and so difficult to actually interact with as a supplier.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117
    SF are actually also down on that poll from the 27% they got in 2017 to 24% now, just the DUP are down more.

    The Traditional Unionist Voice are the biggest gainers in the poll, up from just 3% in 2017 to 10% now as hardline Unionists move from the DUP to them. The Alliance are also up significantly too.

    Overall however the combined Unionist vote of the DUP on 19%, the UUP on 12% and the TUV on 10% at 41% is still higher than the combined Nationalist vote of SF on 24% and the SDLP on 13% on 37%
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933
    timple said:

    Good article, except the conclusion. The spat has shown EU member countries the commission is taking it seriously, and yes, emotions have run high in the Berlymont leading to mistakes. The UK government has played exactly the same card over the last few years to it's supporters and citizens. The difference is the UK kept up the mistake instead of course correcting quickly. If I was a EU citizen I would take the signal that the commission is now focussed on getting these vaccines.

    The UK certainly hasn't played the same card, unless I've missed the threat of export bans, or the imposition of a border in Ireland?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    edited February 2021
    Nigelb said:

    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281

    I don't buy that trading should be regulated to stop people falling into bubble traps. Bubbles - TSLA, London top end housing market can last a err... while - and well investing in the stock market has always been swimming with sharks. Let each investor decide according to his risk appetite.
    $GME (I never got involved) was basically a pump scheme but a positive sum one with the other side coming from Melvin Capital due to their short position.
    Is Bitcoin a bubble ? Who knows at this point. Is Dogecoin ? Certainly, I'm up around £90 through trading that (In tiny size !) though.
    $GME is a bet like much else in life. What was reprehensible was trading apps restricting purchases, forcing sales and only allowing people to sell. Not a fair market at that point.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281

    I don't buy that trading should be regulated to stop people falling into bubble traps. Bubbles - TSLA, London top end housing market can last a err... while - and well investing in the stock market has always been swimming with sharks. Let each investor decide according to his risk appetite.
    $GME (I never got involved) was basically a pump scheme but a positive sum one with the other side coming from Melvin Capital due to their short position.
    Is Bitcoin a bubble ? Who knows at this point. Is Dogecoin ? Certainly, I'm up around £90 through trading that (In tiny size !) though.
    $GME is a bet like much else in life. What was reprehensible was trading apps restricting purchases, forcing sales and only allowing people to sell. Not a fair market at that point.
    Also brokers trying to stop people blocking lending of shares they actually own.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204

    Valneva SE CFO David Lawrence told the Today Programme that whilst the UK has been in discussions and had signed deals since the summer of 2020, the EU is yet to sign even a letter of intent with the firm, which is headquartered in Paris...

    “Yes they should. Of course it comes down to slots. In turn we have got suppliers and this is why it’s important for example that the UK has exercised its option now, so we have got to book slots with suppliers who are giving us key components for the vaccine. The same will be true of other vaccines, the supply process isn’t something that you can just switch on and switch off over a couple of weeks.”

    The EU are going to be wrecking the aisles again when they find out "their" chocolate buttons have already been sold to somebody else.

    Jesus how bad is the EU at this ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    What @Big_G_NorthWales seems oblivious to is that I am not arguing to rejoin the EU - that ship has sailed. What I am arguing - with evidence - is that the rules insisted on by the UK government have brought a significant number of industries to a stand.

    Brexit - leaving the EU - did not have to bring self-harm to our status as a global trading nation. Our government could have understood both how trade worked and the areas where the rules it blindly insisted would be fine would not be fine. Instead we have this.

    "We are not going back so business will have to adapt". In the case of the wine industry it will adapt by closing down. The other story I ready this morning was from major Norniron logistics firm McCulla, reporting in detail how the new rules has brought their industry to its knees. These companies will close without either rapid changes or long-term support. They "will have to adapt" by closing down.

    The new rules are unworkable. And this is the false dawn before we stop breaching WTO rules and start imposing them fully. They will either need to be renegotiated or we will see chunks of our economic output simply stop. That isn't an argument to rejoin the EU, its an argument to negotiate a trading deal that works.

    Sadly people like Big G never understood the difference between the EU and EEA. It is our departure from the latter which has so broken the food and drink industry.

    If they're so unworkable then how do we have so many New World wines available to drink? Is the old world seriously so sclerotic that we face a future of only New World wines if we're not in the EEA? Because I'm 100% OK with that even if that happens, but I don't believe it for one second.

    I think that's going to far and too unfair on the EU there, I don't believe its really that sclerotic as to be impossible to deal with - and that's coming from me!
    @Philip_Thompson are you in the wine trade now?

    The issue is not that there isn't enough wine in the rest of the world, it's just that that wine is already being sold elsewhere and isn't available for us to buy.

    1-3 years time the market will have adjusted and we may be in a position to buy more wine from the RoW but for the moment the RoW production is being produced for the pre-existing markets and is (probably) given how most markets work already presold elsewhere.
    Have you never heard of the concepts of Supply and Demand?

    Prices may change, contracts may change, but the idea it is literally "impossible" to import wine whether from the EU or the Rest of the World is a lie.

    Harder to import EU wine? I believe that.
    More expensive to import EU wine? I believe that.
    Impossible to import EU wine? Lie, lie, lie.

    Impossible doesn't mean a touch more expensive or there's more paperwork.
    The correct price of anything is the price someone is willing to pay for it.

    If the price of importing is higher than many consumers are willing to pay for it, the economics of businesses importing them is no longer viable. Its *possible* to import at a price that not enough consumers are prepared to pay. So it doesn't get imported.

    I can sketch this with crayons if you like. Its called "adding". The ape-men of the Indus understand this, you and Baldrick apparently do not.
    Are you trying to explain the concept of Supply and Demand to me? After I already mentioned it? 🤔

    It may be possible to set an import price that no imports will happen. That's not going to happen though.

    What may happen is that there is a marginal price change, so some things will be marginally more expensive, which means marginally less trade. That is supply and demand, that is not an impossibility to trade though.
    £1.50 for paperwork on a £7 bottle of wine isn't marginal. Heck even on a £15 bottle of wine that isn't marginal.
    You can get New World bottles of wine for £4 (£3.33+VAT) in the supermarket.

    Are you suggesting that 50% of the price of the wine is the paperwork. Or is it possible to do the paperwork for less than £1.50 per bottle - eg if you buy a large shipment instead of a small one?
    I thought you were an expert on wine?

    The reality is that most New World wine now is shipped in tanks and bottled in the UK...

    Those tanks are of course already used 24/7 365 days of the year so are not immediately available for new imports.
    Yes, that's surely the kind of innovation we'll see for EU wines as well, it's better for the environment too as you're no longer transporting heavy glass bottles by truck.

    I think the government made a huge mistake in not having a 12 month deal implementation period where businesses had time to digest the new rules and switch to new import and export methods over the year.
    Which is great on one level but does mean that small vineyards with limited supplies (i.e. the products the wine importer currently sells) will continue to be a red tape paperwork nightmare.
    I'm not sure that it does, if a small producer is selling 10,000 litres in the UK then I'm sure they can get a tanker to take it across the border to a bottling plant.
    Max that is not how it works.

    It simply isn't.

    Plus what bottling plant, exactly?
    Hence the year implementation period, doing this on the fly is going to be very difficult, I don't deny that and as I said a deal implementation period would have been a good idea and it's going to be a huge cost to industry to not have that.

    However, if we can get tanker imports of wine from Chile and South Africa then I'm sure we can organise tanker imports from France and Italy.
    MAAAAXXXX!

    "Tanker imports of wine from France and Italy" is just not how that end of the market works.

    But I have said enough to both you and @Phil and I must away.

    Bon discussions.
    I'm in complete agreement that it isn't like that now, which is why there should have been an adjustment period so the market could start using these kinds of innovations we see elsewhere in the market.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    https://order-order.com/2021/02/01/french-vaccine-boss-explains-to-eu-later-orders-get-later-delivery/

    Valneva SE CFO David Lawrence told the Today Programme that whilst the UK has been in discussions and had signed deals since the summer of 2020, the EU is yet to sign even a letter of intent with the firm, which is headquartered in Paris.

    Crucially, Lawrence went on to say that if the EU wants to get doses at the same time as the UK, they should order at the same time.

  • Pulpstar said:

    Valneva SE CFO David Lawrence told the Today Programme that whilst the UK has been in discussions and had signed deals since the summer of 2020, the EU is yet to sign even a letter of intent with the firm, which is headquartered in Paris...

    “Yes they should. Of course it comes down to slots. In turn we have got suppliers and this is why it’s important for example that the UK has exercised its option now, so we have got to book slots with suppliers who are giving us key components for the vaccine. The same will be true of other vaccines, the supply process isn’t something that you can just switch on and switch off over a couple of weeks.”

    The EU are going to be wrecking the aisles again when they find out "their" chocolate buttons have already been sold to somebody else.

    Jesus how bad is the EU at this ?
    They are still approaching this like buying a rug in a Moroccon bizzare....there is no rush and there is always another rug to buy...its all about playing the haggling game no matter if it takes you all afternoon to "win".
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Pulpstar said:

    Valneva SE CFO David Lawrence told the Today Programme that whilst the UK has been in discussions and had signed deals since the summer of 2020, the EU is yet to sign even a letter of intent with the firm, which is headquartered in Paris...

    “Yes they should. Of course it comes down to slots. In turn we have got suppliers and this is why it’s important for example that the UK has exercised its option now, so we have got to book slots with suppliers who are giving us key components for the vaccine. The same will be true of other vaccines, the supply process isn’t something that you can just switch on and switch off over a couple of weeks.”

    The EU are going to be wrecking the aisles again when they find out "their" chocolate buttons have already been sold to somebody else.

    Jesus how bad is the EU at this ?
    You really need to ask?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,462

    Pulpstar said:

    Valneva SE CFO David Lawrence told the Today Programme that whilst the UK has been in discussions and had signed deals since the summer of 2020, the EU is yet to sign even a letter of intent with the firm, which is headquartered in Paris...

    “Yes they should. Of course it comes down to slots. In turn we have got suppliers and this is why it’s important for example that the UK has exercised its option now, so we have got to book slots with suppliers who are giving us key components for the vaccine. The same will be true of other vaccines, the supply process isn’t something that you can just switch on and switch off over a couple of weeks.”

    The EU are going to be wrecking the aisles again when they find out "their" chocolate buttons have already been sold to somebody else.

    Jesus how bad is the EU at this ?
    They are still approaching this like buying a rug in a Moroccon bizzare....there is no rush and there is always another rug to buy...its all about playing the haggling game no matter if it takes you all afternoon to "win".
    Just maybe, I suppose, if we had still been part of the EU we'd have led on this!
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    Endillion said:

    kamski said:

    felix said:

    kamski said:

    Good Header. The EU commission has been rubbish. And, from a German perspective, Merkel has seemingly been absent, as she has been throughout this pandemic. I would have expected a bit more leadership from the German chancellor.

    From a wider perspective, and ignoring the current spat which I suspect will have little effect on the vaccination rollout (though obviously damaging to relationships and the Commission's reputation), how would things be if there had been no EU vaccine procurement? I guess some countries would have done better, others worse, but either way we'd probably have a massive mess with neighboring countries arguing over whose orders should be reduced the least.

    It makes sense for Britain to do its own thing being an island. It also makes sense for Britain to try and get the whole island of Ireland vaccinated, as that is where the only UK land border is.

    I wouldn't expect the UK to offer spare vaccines to the rest of the EU, though a gesture might be worth it as a way to try to get the UK included back into the "European solidarity" which it people think it has withdrawn itself from.

    If I hear the crap about 'solidarity' one more time. There is no issue with the EU scheme other than it has chosen to replace speed and variety at slightly higher cost with bureaucracy and delay at every possible juncture. Even had things gone smoothly the response has been slow. They have added to this the nasty little swipes against a vaccine purely because of its supposed 'english ' links providing fuel for anti-vax sentiment in an already sceptical population. Less slogans please and more action. Take your solidarity and place it where the sun cannot reach!
    European solidarity is a real thing, though it might be misused. I have noticed its existence, even if you haven't. So you can stick your narrowminded blindness wherever you like.

    Lots of people feel that they are part of a European "family" and that the UK has chosen to leave. That is just how people feel. TBH most people are not very interested in what happens in the UK, which I think is a pity, but that is how it is now.
    I think part of the point is that the constant need to repeat "solidarity" etc provides us with a clue as to how much of it is really floating around.
    Maybe, but I just wrote something from my perspective here on the continent, which didn't say anything I would consider controversial or unreasonable, without insulting anyone, but the words "European solidarity" seem to need a trigger warning for some people!
  • Pulpstar said:

    Valneva SE CFO David Lawrence told the Today Programme that whilst the UK has been in discussions and had signed deals since the summer of 2020, the EU is yet to sign even a letter of intent with the firm, which is headquartered in Paris...

    “Yes they should. Of course it comes down to slots. In turn we have got suppliers and this is why it’s important for example that the UK has exercised its option now, so we have got to book slots with suppliers who are giving us key components for the vaccine. The same will be true of other vaccines, the supply process isn’t something that you can just switch on and switch off over a couple of weeks.”

    The EU are going to be wrecking the aisles again when they find out "their" chocolate buttons have already been sold to somebody else.

    Jesus how bad is the EU at this ?
    They are still approaching this like buying a rug in a Moroccon bizzare....there is no rush and there is always another rug to buy...its all about playing the haggling game no matter if it takes you all afternoon to "win".
    Just maybe, I suppose, if we had still been part of the EU we'd have led on this!
    No, we would have been told to join the scheme and they would handle it....all about unity you see.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933
    edited February 2021

    Pulpstar said:

    Valneva SE CFO David Lawrence told the Today Programme that whilst the UK has been in discussions and had signed deals since the summer of 2020, the EU is yet to sign even a letter of intent with the firm, which is headquartered in Paris...

    “Yes they should. Of course it comes down to slots. In turn we have got suppliers and this is why it’s important for example that the UK has exercised its option now, so we have got to book slots with suppliers who are giving us key components for the vaccine. The same will be true of other vaccines, the supply process isn’t something that you can just switch on and switch off over a couple of weeks.”

    The EU are going to be wrecking the aisles again when they find out "their" chocolate buttons have already been sold to somebody else.

    Jesus how bad is the EU at this ?
    They are still approaching this like buying a rug in a Moroccon bizzare....there is no rush and there is always another rug to buy...its all about playing the haggling game no matter if it takes you all afternoon to "win".
    Just maybe, I suppose, if we had still been part of the EU we'd have led on this!
    I'm not sure the EU commission would have been happy to give up that, or any, power.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    timple said:

    Good article, except the conclusion. The spat has shown EU member countries the commission is taking it seriously, and yes, emotions have run high in the Berlymont leading to mistakes. The UK government has played exactly the same card over the last few years to it's supporters and citizens. The difference is the UK kept up the mistake instead of course correcting quickly. If I was a EU citizen I would take the signal that the commission is now focussed on getting these vaccines.

    No, they are not serious.

    Instead of dealing with the production difficulties - which are effecting most of the vaccine producers - they have chosen to head down the road of conspiracy theory (stealing our vaccines) and legal threats.

    Note that Canada got no vaccines last week. None. They got serious by having talks with Pfizer about how quickly the situation can be resolved. They didn't go all Macron.

    If you head down the road of legal action and threats, everyone circles the wagons. Communication goes through the lawyers. This slows things down. As in any relationship, cooperation beats confrontation. The actions of the commission (and the various national parties) have probably slowed down the future rate at which vaccine will be delivered.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281

    I don't buy that trading should be regulated to stop people falling into bubble traps. Bubbles - TSLA, London top end housing market can last a err... while - and well investing in the stock market has always been swimming with sharks. Let each investor decide according to his risk appetite.
    $GME (I never got involved) was basically a pump scheme but a positive sum one with the other side coming from Melvin Capital due to their short position.
    Is Bitcoin a bubble ? Who knows at this point. Is Dogecoin ? Certainly, I'm up around £90 through trading that (In tiny size !) though.
    $GME is a bet like much else in life. What was reprehensible was trading apps restricting purchases, forcing sales and only allowing people to sell. Not a fair market at that point.
    Pumping can be illegal for a reason. Much of the money lost from this will be from mugs who have fallen for a Ponzi, not from Melvin Capital.

    Entirely possible someone will face serious prosecution once this is over with. Maybe not, but I wouldn't rule it out.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,209
    Morning all,

    On topic. It's an excellent piece from @Cyclefree but I need to pick up on some of the legal analysis. I've been through the AZ/EU contract with a fine toothbrush and have come to a completely different set of conclusions which are far more favourable to Brussels and cast the situation in a wholly different light. Writing them up now. Watch this space.

    Off topic. There's been a twitter storm here in North London today with an antivax loony spreading the story that Captain Tom Moore (rooting for) had had the vaccine and his now having Covid proved it doesn't work. Tetchy exchanges ensued during which worrying evidence for the claim was presented in the form of a link headlined "Tom gets vaccine". Clicked in and it turns out Tom has indeed had the vaccine. Tom Jones. Can you believe this stuff? Pathetic really. Why why why must people abuse social media this way?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    timple said:

    Good article, except the conclusion. The spat has shown EU member countries the commission is taking it seriously, and yes, emotions have run high in the Berlymont leading to mistakes. The UK government has played exactly the same card over the last few years to it's supporters and citizens. The difference is the UK kept up the mistake instead of course correcting quickly. If I was a EU citizen I would take the signal that the commission is now focussed on getting these vaccines.

    Probably, but theres a darker point .

    Their explanation of the NI protocol issue was absolute nonsense about it being inadvertent, an explanation worse than the truth of it being intentional by Ursula. By accepting that nonsense in the name of unity they are storing up problems instead of addressing just what the heck happened there.

    And they haven't really changed course on the tantrum throwing, but I doubt EU public care since it looks like they are trying.

    Sadly, looks is all it was - why they didn't just talk calmly, the EU way, to get the same result I don't know.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879
    edited February 2021
    Scott_xP said:
    Mollusc exporting bloke says:

    “This is not a teething issue, this is the government removing all our teeth and leaving us unable to eat”.

    He added: “This is not new EU policy. This has always been there.

    “This is the government not doing their job to safeguard the industry”.

    “Before December 31 we were in the EU and DEFRA was responsible for policing imports from third countries. Now we are out of the EU how come it is only now we are told of the situation. It’s like saying a policeman who’s been on the beat for the last 50 years didn’t know the law”.

    'Government' = UKG.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,462
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Valneva SE CFO David Lawrence told the Today Programme that whilst the UK has been in discussions and had signed deals since the summer of 2020, the EU is yet to sign even a letter of intent with the firm, which is headquartered in Paris...

    “Yes they should. Of course it comes down to slots. In turn we have got suppliers and this is why it’s important for example that the UK has exercised its option now, so we have got to book slots with suppliers who are giving us key components for the vaccine. The same will be true of other vaccines, the supply process isn’t something that you can just switch on and switch off over a couple of weeks.”

    The EU are going to be wrecking the aisles again when they find out "their" chocolate buttons have already been sold to somebody else.

    Jesus how bad is the EU at this ?
    They are still approaching this like buying a rug in a Moroccon bizzare....there is no rush and there is always another rug to buy...its all about playing the haggling game no matter if it takes you all afternoon to "win".
    Just maybe, I suppose, if we had still been part of the EU we'd have led on this!
    I'm not sure the EU commission would have been happy to give up that, or any, power.
    We would though, effectively, been in charge of vaccine approval.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Valneva SE CFO David Lawrence told the Today Programme that whilst the UK has been in discussions and had signed deals since the summer of 2020, the EU is yet to sign even a letter of intent with the firm, which is headquartered in Paris...

    “Yes they should. Of course it comes down to slots. In turn we have got suppliers and this is why it’s important for example that the UK has exercised its option now, so we have got to book slots with suppliers who are giving us key components for the vaccine. The same will be true of other vaccines, the supply process isn’t something that you can just switch on and switch off over a couple of weeks.”

    The EU are going to be wrecking the aisles again when they find out "their" chocolate buttons have already been sold to somebody else.

    Jesus how bad is the EU at this ?
    They are still approaching this like buying a rug in a Moroccon bizzare....there is no rush and there is always another rug to buy...its all about playing the haggling game no matter if it takes you all afternoon to "win".
    Just maybe, I suppose, if we had still been part of the EU we'd have led on this!
    Because the lesson of the past couple of decades is really one of Britain leading Europe isn't it?

    There are none so blind as those who refuse to see.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,924
    edited February 2021
    Nigelb said:

    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281

    It's not a Ponzi scheme. It looks more like a pump 'n dump (see Wolf of Wall Street) even if that is not the intention of those who started it (and as your link suggests, it might have been). So to that end, it also looks like a classic bubble.

    Among the casualties will be not just those poor saps who have done their life savings or stimulus cheques but also the platforms they use to invest. See this article on Robin Hood.
    https://fintechlatest.substack.com/p/robinhood-a-fintech-suicide

    And the irony is the much-hated hedge funds will now be reading the Reddit groups for investment tips.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Valneva SE CFO David Lawrence told the Today Programme that whilst the UK has been in discussions and had signed deals since the summer of 2020, the EU is yet to sign even a letter of intent with the firm, which is headquartered in Paris...

    “Yes they should. Of course it comes down to slots. In turn we have got suppliers and this is why it’s important for example that the UK has exercised its option now, so we have got to book slots with suppliers who are giving us key components for the vaccine. The same will be true of other vaccines, the supply process isn’t something that you can just switch on and switch off over a couple of weeks.”

    The EU are going to be wrecking the aisles again when they find out "their" chocolate buttons have already been sold to somebody else.

    Jesus how bad is the EU at this ?
    They are still approaching this like buying a rug in a Moroccon bizzare....there is no rush and there is always another rug to buy...its all about playing the haggling game no matter if it takes you all afternoon to "win".
    Just maybe, I suppose, if we had still been part of the EU we'd have led on this!
    I'm not sure the EU commission would have been happy to give up that, or any, power.
    We would though, effectively, been in charge of vaccine approval.
    Are the people at the top of the EMA different than before? In any case, slowness of approval isn't the problem.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204
    edited February 2021

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281

    I don't buy that trading should be regulated to stop people falling into bubble traps. Bubbles - TSLA, London top end housing market can last a err... while - and well investing in the stock market has always been swimming with sharks. Let each investor decide according to his risk appetite.
    $GME (I never got involved) was basically a pump scheme but a positive sum one with the other side coming from Melvin Capital due to their short position.
    Is Bitcoin a bubble ? Who knows at this point. Is Dogecoin ? Certainly, I'm up around £90 through trading that (In tiny size !) though.
    $GME is a bet like much else in life. What was reprehensible was trading apps restricting purchases, forcing sales and only allowing people to sell. Not a fair market at that point.
    Pumping can be illegal for a reason. Much of the money lost from this will be from mugs who have fallen for a Ponzi, not from Melvin Capital.

    Entirely possible someone will face serious prosecution once this is over with. Maybe not, but I wouldn't rule it out.
    I'm a believer in free markets here Phil, investments can go down as well as up on the stock market. If people want to buy $GME at $325 a share it's up to them. You might be able to sell at $500, it might head to $50.

    Robinhood should be sued to high heaven though. They were a disgrace.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
  • RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Valneva SE CFO David Lawrence told the Today Programme that whilst the UK has been in discussions and had signed deals since the summer of 2020, the EU is yet to sign even a letter of intent with the firm, which is headquartered in Paris...

    “Yes they should. Of course it comes down to slots. In turn we have got suppliers and this is why it’s important for example that the UK has exercised its option now, so we have got to book slots with suppliers who are giving us key components for the vaccine. The same will be true of other vaccines, the supply process isn’t something that you can just switch on and switch off over a couple of weeks.”

    The EU are going to be wrecking the aisles again when they find out "their" chocolate buttons have already been sold to somebody else.

    Jesus how bad is the EU at this ?
    They are still approaching this like buying a rug in a Moroccon bizzare....there is no rush and there is always another rug to buy...its all about playing the haggling game no matter if it takes you all afternoon to "win".
    Just maybe, I suppose, if we had still been part of the EU we'd have led on this!
    I'm not sure the EU commission would have been happy to give up that, or any, power.
    We would though, effectively, been in charge of vaccine approval.
    You can approve things as fast as you like, slow doing deals = no vaccines....see UK and Moderna, we won't be getting any of those until April.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Carnyx said:

    Mollusc exporting bloke says:

    “This is not a teething issue, this is the government removing all our teeth and leaving us unable to eat”.

    He added: “This is not new EU policy. This has always been there.

    “This is the government not doing their job to safeguard the industry”.

    “Before December 31 we were in the EU and DEFRA was responsible for policing imports from third countries. Now we are out of the EU how come it is only now we are told of the situation. It’s like saying a policeman who’s been on the beat for the last 50 years didn’t know the law”.

    'Government' = UKG.

    Should we have an over/under on the when the first Brexiteer will post "This huge problem entirely caused by Brexit proves why Brexit was a great idea.." ?
  • timple said:

    ...... If I was a EU citizen I would take the signal that the commission is now focussed on getting these vaccines.

    The only part of your post that I agree with is the implicit acknowledgement that de facto there are no longer French, Portuguese, Greek (etc) citizens, just EU citizens. No longer citizens of independent nation states, such is the EU's overreach.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    Thanks for the header Cyclefree, A+.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    I don't know, which is why I am being cautious. But its certainly something that will looked at when this is over. If it ever is.

  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281

    I don't buy that trading should be regulated to stop people falling into bubble traps. Bubbles - TSLA, London top end housing market can last a err... while - and well investing in the stock market has always been swimming with sharks. Let each investor decide according to his risk appetite.
    $GME (I never got involved) was basically a pump scheme but a positive sum one with the other side coming from Melvin Capital due to their short position.
    Is Bitcoin a bubble ? Who knows at this point. Is Dogecoin ? Certainly, I'm up around £90 through trading that (In tiny size !) though.
    $GME is a bet like much else in life. What was reprehensible was trading apps restricting purchases, forcing sales and only allowing people to sell. Not a fair market at that point.
    Pumping can be illegal for a reason. Much of the money lost from this will be from mugs who have fallen for a Ponzi, not from Melvin Capital.

    Entirely possible someone will face serious prosecution once this is over with. Maybe not, but I wouldn't rule it out.
    I'm a believer in free markets here Phil, investments can go down as well as up on the stock market. If people want to buy $GME at $325 a share it's up to them. You might be able to sell at $500, it might head to $50.
    So do I. 100%

    The SEC though tends to view pump and dump very harshly. An SEC investigation into this is surely guaranteed and I'm sure they'll be looking for evidence of ongoing pump and dump behaviour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,204

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281

    I don't buy that trading should be regulated to stop people falling into bubble traps. Bubbles - TSLA, London top end housing market can last a err... while - and well investing in the stock market has always been swimming with sharks. Let each investor decide according to his risk appetite.
    $GME (I never got involved) was basically a pump scheme but a positive sum one with the other side coming from Melvin Capital due to their short position.
    Is Bitcoin a bubble ? Who knows at this point. Is Dogecoin ? Certainly, I'm up around £90 through trading that (In tiny size !) though.
    $GME is a bet like much else in life. What was reprehensible was trading apps restricting purchases, forcing sales and only allowing people to sell. Not a fair market at that point.
    Pumping can be illegal for a reason. Much of the money lost from this will be from mugs who have fallen for a Ponzi, not from Melvin Capital.

    Entirely possible someone will face serious prosecution once this is over with. Maybe not, but I wouldn't rule it out.
    I'm a believer in free markets here Phil, investments can go down as well as up on the stock market. If people want to buy $GME at $325 a share it's up to them. You might be able to sell at $500, it might head to $50.
    So do I. 100%

    The SEC though tends to view pump and dump very harshly. An SEC investigation into this is surely guaranteed and I'm sure they'll be looking for evidence of ongoing pump and dump behaviour.
    The SEC needs root and branch reform.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281

    I don't buy that trading should be regulated to stop people falling into bubble traps. Bubbles - TSLA, London top end housing market can last a err... while - and well investing in the stock market has always been swimming with sharks. Let each investor decide according to his risk appetite.
    $GME (I never got involved) was basically a pump scheme but a positive sum one with the other side coming from Melvin Capital due to their short position.
    Is Bitcoin a bubble ? Who knows at this point. Is Dogecoin ? Certainly, I'm up around £90 through trading that (In tiny size !) though.
    $GME is a bet like much else in life. What was reprehensible was trading apps restricting purchases, forcing sales and only allowing people to sell. Not a fair market at that point.
    Pumping can be illegal for a reason. Much of the money lost from this will be from mugs who have fallen for a Ponzi, not from Melvin Capital.

    Entirely possible someone will face serious prosecution once this is over with. Maybe not, but I wouldn't rule it out.
    I'm a believer in free markets here Phil, investments can go down as well as up on the stock market. If people want to buy $GME at $325 a share it's up to them. You might be able to sell at $500, it might head to $50.
    So do I. 100%

    The SEC though tends to view pump and dump very harshly. An SEC investigation into this is surely guaranteed and I'm sure they'll be looking for evidence of ongoing pump and dump behaviour.
    The SEC views pump and dump harshly, but what the hedge funds are doing with their assault on companies that are in trouble is fine?

  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281

    I don't buy that trading should be regulated to stop people falling into bubble traps. Bubbles - TSLA, London top end housing market can last a err... while - and well investing in the stock market has always been swimming with sharks. Let each investor decide according to his risk appetite.
    $GME (I never got involved) was basically a pump scheme but a positive sum one with the other side coming from Melvin Capital due to their short position.
    Is Bitcoin a bubble ? Who knows at this point. Is Dogecoin ? Certainly, I'm up around £90 through trading that (In tiny size !) though.
    $GME is a bet like much else in life. What was reprehensible was trading apps restricting purchases, forcing sales and only allowing people to sell. Not a fair market at that point.
    Pumping can be illegal for a reason. Much of the money lost from this will be from mugs who have fallen for a Ponzi, not from Melvin Capital.

    Entirely possible someone will face serious prosecution once this is over with. Maybe not, but I wouldn't rule it out.
    I'm a believer in free markets here Phil, investments can go down as well as up on the stock market. If people want to buy $GME at $325 a share it's up to them. You might be able to sell at $500, it might head to $50.
    So do I. 100%

    The SEC though tends to view pump and dump very harshly. An SEC investigation into this is surely guaranteed and I'm sure they'll be looking for evidence of ongoing pump and dump behaviour.
    The SEC needs root and branch reform.
    Again agreed. Unlikely to be much serious reform though.
  • timple said:

    ...... If I was a EU citizen I would take the signal that the commission is now focussed on getting these vaccines.

    The only part of your post that I agree with is the implicit acknowledgement that de facto there are no longer French, Portuguese, Greek (etc) citizens, just EU citizens. No longer citizens of independent nation states, such is the EU's overreach.
    As an EU citizen I take from it that Denmark could do this stuff a hundred times better
  • British tourists were among 96 foreigners fined for holidaying at an Austrian ski resort in breach of lockdown rules, police say.

    The foreigners were discovered during raids on hotels in the town of St Anton am Arlberg in Tyrol on Friday.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    Nigelb said:

    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281

    It's not a Ponzi scheme. It looks more like a pump 'n dump (see Wolf of Wall Street) even if that is not the intention of those who started it (and as your link suggests, it might have been). So to that end, it also looks like a classic bubble.

    Among the casualties will be not just those poor saps who have done their life savings or stimulus cheques but also the platforms they use to invest. See this article on Robin Hood.
    https://fintechlatest.substack.com/p/robinhood-a-fintech-suicide

    And the irony is the much-hated hedge funds will now be reading the Reddit groups for investment tips.
    Robin Hood is an interesting tale - there are more and more of these platforms popping up. People don't ask about the convoluted chain to the actual, real market. In their case, it seems that the people they had contracts with were involved in the market.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    I don't know, which is why I am being cautious. But its certainly something that will looked at when this is over. If it ever is.

    The effect of lockdown is undeniable when you look at how cases plunged after the first lockdown. Unless you think something else was at work here?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,462

    Pulpstar said:

    Valneva SE CFO David Lawrence told the Today Programme that whilst the UK has been in discussions and had signed deals since the summer of 2020, the EU is yet to sign even a letter of intent with the firm, which is headquartered in Paris...

    “Yes they should. Of course it comes down to slots. In turn we have got suppliers and this is why it’s important for example that the UK has exercised its option now, so we have got to book slots with suppliers who are giving us key components for the vaccine. The same will be true of other vaccines, the supply process isn’t something that you can just switch on and switch off over a couple of weeks.”

    The EU are going to be wrecking the aisles again when they find out "their" chocolate buttons have already been sold to somebody else.

    Jesus how bad is the EU at this ?
    They are still approaching this like buying a rug in a Moroccon bizzare....there is no rush and there is always another rug to buy...its all about playing the haggling game no matter if it takes you all afternoon to "win".
    Just maybe, I suppose, if we had still been part of the EU we'd have led on this!
    Because the lesson of the past couple of decades is really one of Britain leading Europe isn't it?

    There are none so blind as those who refuse to see.
    The lesson of at least the last decade surely is of Britain snarling at the rest of the EU.
  • Look at the NYT subhead -- Poorer countries become breeding grounds, putting the whole world at risk.

    That is why we need to get on with vaccinating the rest of the world. Whether through enlightened self interest or soft-hearted charity, we need to be part of the global vaccination drive. We cannot stop at Dover and build a wall.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    Look at the NYT subhead -- Poorer countries become breeding grounds, putting the whole world at risk.

    That is why we need to get on with vaccinating the rest of the world. Whether through enlightened self interest or soft-hearted charity, we need to be part of the global vaccination drive. We cannot stop at Dover and build a wall.
    Aren't we already a part of it?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Nigelb said:

    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281

    It's not a Ponzi scheme. It looks more like a pump 'n dump (see Wolf of Wall Street) even if that is not the intention of those who started it (and as your link suggests, it might have been). So to that end, it also looks like a classic bubble.

    Among the casualties will be not just those poor saps who have done their life savings or stimulus cheques but also the platforms they use to invest. See this article on Robin Hood.
    https://fintechlatest.substack.com/p/robinhood-a-fintech-suicide

    And the irony is the much-hated hedge funds will now be reading the Reddit groups for investment tips.
    Robin Hood is an interesting tale - there are more and more of these platforms popping up. People don't ask about the convoluted chain to the actual, real market. In their case, it seems that the people they had contracts with were involved in the market.....
    Since Alan Greenspan bailed out LTCM and Gordon Brown sold Britain's gold, the global financial industry has assumed it can reap its profits and socialise its losses.

    This is the latest test of assumption.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357

    Look at the NYT subhead -- Poorer countries become breeding grounds, putting the whole world at risk.

    That is why we need to get on with vaccinating the rest of the world. Whether through enlightened self interest or soft-hearted charity, we need to be part of the global vaccination drive. We cannot stop at Dover and build a wall.
    Call your MP and back COVAX.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,879
    Scott_xP said:

    Carnyx said:

    Mollusc exporting bloke says:

    “This is not a teething issue, this is the government removing all our teeth and leaving us unable to eat”.

    He added: “This is not new EU policy. This has always been there.

    “This is the government not doing their job to safeguard the industry”.

    “Before December 31 we were in the EU and DEFRA was responsible for policing imports from third countries. Now we are out of the EU how come it is only now we are told of the situation. It’s like saying a policeman who’s been on the beat for the last 50 years didn’t know the law”.

    'Government' = UKG.

    Should we have an over/under on the when the first Brexiteer will post "This huge problem entirely caused by Brexit proves why Brexit was a great idea.." ?
    It might be more to the point to consider whether the betting for Tory MPs and MSPs keeping their seats in the coastal constituencies and regions should be revised.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Carnyx said:

    Mollusc exporting bloke says:

    “This is not a teething issue, this is the government removing all our teeth and leaving us unable to eat”.

    He added: “This is not new EU policy. This has always been there.

    “This is the government not doing their job to safeguard the industry”.

    “Before December 31 we were in the EU and DEFRA was responsible for policing imports from third countries. Now we are out of the EU how come it is only now we are told of the situation. It’s like saying a policeman who’s been on the beat for the last 50 years didn’t know the law”.

    'Government' = UKG.

    Should we have an over/under on the when the first Brexiteer will post "This huge problem entirely caused by Brexit proves why Brexit was a great idea.." ?
    It might be more to the point to consider whether the betting for Tory MPs and MSPs keeping their seats in the coastal constituencies and regions should be revised.
    There are no Tory MSPs in coastal region constituencies at Holyrood, both Moray and Banffshire and Buchan coast for example have SNP MSPs even if they have Tory MPs
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited February 2021
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    I don't know, which is why I am being cautious. But its certainly something that will looked at when this is over. If it ever is.

    The effect of lockdown is undeniable when you look at how cases plunged after the first lockdown. Unless you think something else was at work here?
    look I don;t know, but cases in the US are dropping, even in states that have light regulation. I don;t know the details of the individual states which is why I am not making any claims.

    It may be that lockdowns speed up the process, but look at the side effects. Horrendous. More and more details are emerging about what we are doing to our children. Simply awful.

    To me, its unforgiveable.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    In terms of the economy, the Construction Industry in Hampshire is now busier than it has ever been and this is without a lot of Local Authority work as they are still off. Agencies are now paying £220 a day for a basic electrician (Charge £242.00) Thats the equivalent of £57,200 per year and they still cannot get people.

    We are now turning down work as we simply don't have the staff to do it. We have four permanent job adverts on Indeed and nobody applies.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281

    I don't buy that trading should be regulated to stop people falling into bubble traps. Bubbles - TSLA, London top end housing market can last a err... while - and well investing in the stock market has always been swimming with sharks. Let each investor decide according to his risk appetite.
    $GME (I never got involved) was basically a pump scheme but a positive sum one with the other side coming from Melvin Capital due to their short position.
    Is Bitcoin a bubble ? Who knows at this point. Is Dogecoin ? Certainly, I'm up around £90 through trading that (In tiny size !) though.
    $GME is a bet like much else in life. What was reprehensible was trading apps restricting purchases, forcing sales and only allowing people to sell. Not a fair market at that point.
    Pumping can be illegal for a reason. Much of the money lost from this will be from mugs who have fallen for a Ponzi, not from Melvin Capital.

    Entirely possible someone will face serious prosecution once this is over with. Maybe not, but I wouldn't rule it out.
    I'm a believer in free markets here Phil, investments can go down as well as up on the stock market. If people want to buy $GME at $325 a share it's up to them. You might be able to sell at $500, it might head to $50.
    So do I. 100%

    The SEC though tends to view pump and dump very harshly. An SEC investigation into this is surely guaranteed and I'm sure they'll be looking for evidence of ongoing pump and dump behaviour.
    The SEC views pump and dump harshly, but what the hedge funds are doing with their assault on companies that are in trouble is fine?

    I'm not defending the SEC. Just pointing out what's probably going to happen next. The mugs who've bought and $330 per share will lose their shirts and the SEC will go after the pumpers and dumpers but not the hedge funds.

    Take the case of Philip Falcone and Harbinger. The SEC went after the wrong person then, if someone wants to sell something then buying it should never be a crime.

    If someone is prepared to sell you something they don't own so you end up owning 140% of bonds or shares then the person who sold it to you should be the one who has committed an offence.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    I don't know, which is why I am being cautious. But its certainly something that will looked at when this is over. If it ever is.

    The effect of lockdown is undeniable when you look at how cases plunged after the first lockdown. Unless you think something else was at work here?
    look I don;t know, but cases in the US are dropping, even in states that have light regulation. I don;t know the details of the individual states which is why I am not making any claims.

    It may be that lockdowns speed up the process, but look at the side effects. Horrendous. More and more details are emerging about what we are doing to our children. Simply awful.

    To me, its unforgiveable.
    What do you mean by light regulation? I don't think any place is operating status quo ante.
  • One of Kay Burley's party rule breakers...

    https://twitter.com/inzyrashid/status/1356140213261754369?s=19
  • Pulpstar said:

    Valneva SE CFO David Lawrence told the Today Programme that whilst the UK has been in discussions and had signed deals since the summer of 2020, the EU is yet to sign even a letter of intent with the firm, which is headquartered in Paris...

    “Yes they should. Of course it comes down to slots. In turn we have got suppliers and this is why it’s important for example that the UK has exercised its option now, so we have got to book slots with suppliers who are giving us key components for the vaccine. The same will be true of other vaccines, the supply process isn’t something that you can just switch on and switch off over a couple of weeks.”

    The EU are going to be wrecking the aisles again when they find out "their" chocolate buttons have already been sold to somebody else.

    Jesus how bad is the EU at this ?
    They are still approaching this like buying a rug in a Moroccon bizzare....there is no rush and there is always another rug to buy...its all about playing the haggling game no matter if it takes you all afternoon to "win".
    Just maybe, I suppose, if we had still been part of the EU we'd have led on this!
    Because the lesson of the past couple of decades is really one of Britain leading Europe isn't it?

    There are none so blind as those who refuse to see.
    The lesson of at least the last decade surely is of Britain snarling at the rest of the EU.
    Until we left.

    Who is snarling now?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600
    kinabalu said:

    Morning all,

    On topic. It's an excellent piece from @Cyclefree but I need to pick up on some of the legal analysis. I've been through the AZ/EU contract with a fine toothbrush and have come to a completely different set of conclusions which are far more favourable to Brussels and cast the situation in a wholly different light. Writing them up now. Watch this space.

    Off topic. There's been a twitter storm here in North London today with an antivax loony spreading the story that Captain Tom Moore (rooting for) had had the vaccine and his now having Covid proved it doesn't work. Tetchy exchanges ensued during which worrying evidence for the claim was presented in the form of a link headlined "Tom gets vaccine". Clicked in and it turns out Tom has indeed had the vaccine. Tom Jones. Can you believe this stuff? Pathetic really. Why why why must people abuse social media this way?

    You can't go on the roads without a driving test - to show you won't kill people.

    Hammer on the keyboard and you can help kill thousands.

    Can't help but think that if the internet had been launched fully formed on Day One with a big fanfare, it wouldn't necessarily look like it does today. There might have been a bit more thought given to complete arseholes facing a STFU button, for example.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    I don't know, which is why I am being cautious. But its certainly something that will looked at when this is over. If it ever is.

    The effect of lockdown is undeniable when you look at how cases plunged after the first lockdown. Unless you think something else was at work here?
    look I don;t know, but cases in the US are dropping, even in states that have light regulation. I don;t know the details of the individual states which is why I am not making any claims.

    It may be that lockdowns speed up the process, but look at the side effects. Horrendous. More and more details are emerging about what we are doing to our children. Simply awful.

    To me, its unforgiveable.
    What do you mean by light regulation? I don't think any place is operating status quo ante.
    I donlt know the details, but what's certain is that lockdown rules are not uniform across the US. Some states are tougher than others.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600

    One of Kay Burley's party rule breakers...

    https://twitter.com/inzyrashid/status/1356140213261754369?s=19

    Your parents probably wouldn't wish a fucking selfish twat of a son on their worst enemies either.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    Look at the NYT subhead -- Poorer countries become breeding grounds, putting the whole world at risk.

    That is why we need to get on with vaccinating the rest of the world. Whether through enlightened self interest or soft-hearted charity, we need to be part of the global vaccination drive. We cannot stop at Dover and build a wall.
    I don't think anyone is saying stop at Dover - what people are saying is that we need to reach a point at which we no longer have a problem and only at that point we start vaccinating everyone else.

    The only real unknown is at what point do we start vaccinating everyone else and how long will it take.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220

    Valneva SE CFO David Lawrence told the Today Programme that whilst the UK has been in discussions and had signed deals since the summer of 2020, the EU is yet to sign even a letter of intent with the firm, which is headquartered in Paris...

    “Yes they should. Of course it comes down to slots. In turn we have got suppliers and this is why it’s important for example that the UK has exercised its option now, so we have got to book slots with suppliers who are giving us key components for the vaccine. The same will be true of other vaccines, the supply process isn’t something that you can just switch on and switch off over a couple of weeks.”

    The EU are going to be wrecking the aisles again when they find out "their" chocolate buttons have already been sold to somebody else.

    The stupidity of this is remarkable.

    If they didn't realise six months ago that vaccine investment is the most extreme example of a cost/benefit analysis favouring investment that governments have seen this century, they really ought to have done so by now.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    kinabalu said:

    Morning all,

    On topic. It's an excellent piece from @Cyclefree but I need to pick up on some of the legal analysis. I've been through the AZ/EU contract with a fine toothbrush and have come to a completely different set of conclusions which are far more favourable to Brussels and cast the situation in a wholly different light. Writing them up now. Watch this space.

    Off topic. There's been a twitter storm here in North London today with an antivax loony spreading the story that Captain Tom Moore (rooting for) had had the vaccine and his now having Covid proved it doesn't work. Tetchy exchanges ensued during which worrying evidence for the claim was presented in the form of a link headlined "Tom gets vaccine". Clicked in and it turns out Tom has indeed had the vaccine. Tom Jones. Can you believe this stuff? Pathetic really. Why why why must people abuse social media this way?

    Cyclefree is a lawyer, you aren't. She has the expert opinion here, you have the pro-EU, Britain hating agenda fuelled predetermined conclusion.

    Sorry mate, all of the lawyers have opined on this in favour of AZ, including remain voting ones like David Allen Green.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    In terms of the economy, the Construction Industry in Hampshire is now busier than it has ever been and this is without a lot of Local Authority work as they are still off. Agencies are now paying £220 a day for a basic electrician (Charge £242.00) Thats the equivalent of £57,200 per year and they still cannot get people.

    We are now turning down work as we simply don't have the staff to do it. We have four permanent job adverts on Indeed and nobody applies.

    It's not - you can't work 5 days a week 52 weeks a year.

    £52,000 is a far saner equivalent.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2021

    One of Kay Burley's party rule breakers...

    https://twitter.com/inzyrashid/status/1356140213261754369?s=19

    Good for him for speaking up and putting his head above the parapet here. Everyone can make mistakes and nobody should go through what he's been through.

    I have far more sympathy for him than I did for Kay Burley or Beth Rigby. I can't recall him harassing others trying to find edge cases and trip people up about stupid stuff then blatantly flouting everything.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    I don't know, which is why I am being cautious. But its certainly something that will looked at when this is over. If it ever is.

    The effect of lockdown is undeniable when you look at how cases plunged after the first lockdown. Unless you think something else was at work here?
    I've seen people argue that social distancing was more important as various measures of the spread peaked before the first lockdown.

    My guess is that they both contributed, but as ever in social science, working out cause and effect will always be controversial.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,220

    Nigelb said:

    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281

    It's not a Ponzi scheme. It looks more like a pump 'n dump (see Wolf of Wall Street) even if that is not the intention of those who started it (and as your link suggests, it might have been). So to that end, it also looks like a classic bubble.

    Among the casualties will be not just those poor saps who have done their life savings or stimulus cheques but also the platforms they use to invest. See this article on Robin Hood.
    https://fintechlatest.substack.com/p/robinhood-a-fintech-suicide

    And the irony is the much-hated hedge funds will now be reading the Reddit groups for investment tips.
    For the latecomer suckers, the reality of pump & dumps on this scale is not a great deal different to a Ponzi scheme.
    Those taking profits out depend on sucking new investors in at inflated prices; it won't last too long
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,752
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Mollusc exporting bloke says:

    “This is not a teething issue, this is the government removing all our teeth and leaving us unable to eat”.

    He added: “This is not new EU policy. This has always been there.

    “This is the government not doing their job to safeguard the industry”.

    “Before December 31 we were in the EU and DEFRA was responsible for policing imports from third countries. Now we are out of the EU how come it is only now we are told of the situation. It’s like saying a policeman who’s been on the beat for the last 50 years didn’t know the law”.

    'Government' = UKG.

    I think you're right and this is a real mess. However, given the vaccine row and the unbelievable approach of the Commission, this looks very like a further act of vindictiveness from the EU, even if it isn't. I suspect a lot of this kind of thing may be viewed through that prism from now on.

    That fishing taskforce has some work to do.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281

    I don't buy that trading should be regulated to stop people falling into bubble traps. Bubbles - TSLA, London top end housing market can last a err... while - and well investing in the stock market has always been swimming with sharks. Let each investor decide according to his risk appetite.
    $GME (I never got involved) was basically a pump scheme but a positive sum one with the other side coming from Melvin Capital due to their short position.
    Is Bitcoin a bubble ? Who knows at this point. Is Dogecoin ? Certainly, I'm up around £90 through trading that (In tiny size !) though.
    $GME is a bet like much else in life. What was reprehensible was trading apps restricting purchases, forcing sales and only allowing people to sell. Not a fair market at that point.
    Pumping can be illegal for a reason. Much of the money lost from this will be from mugs who have fallen for a Ponzi, not from Melvin Capital.

    Entirely possible someone will face serious prosecution once this is over with. Maybe not, but I wouldn't rule it out.
    A Ponzi scheme is where the organizer intentionally pays the profits of early investors from the investments of later investors.

    GME is many things but its not a Ponzi scheme.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    kinabalu said:

    Morning all,

    On topic. It's an excellent piece from @Cyclefree but I need to pick up on some of the legal analysis. I've been through the AZ/EU contract with a fine toothbrush and have come to a completely different set of conclusions which are far more favourable to Brussels and cast the situation in a wholly different light. Writing them up now. Watch this space.

    Off topic. There's been a twitter storm here in North London today with an antivax loony spreading the story that Captain Tom Moore (rooting for) had had the vaccine and his now having Covid proved it doesn't work. Tetchy exchanges ensued during which worrying evidence for the claim was presented in the form of a link headlined "Tom gets vaccine". Clicked in and it turns out Tom has indeed had the vaccine. Tom Jones. Can you believe this stuff? Pathetic really. Why why why must people abuse social media this way?

    You can't go on the roads without a driving test - to show you won't kill people.

    Hammer on the keyboard and you can help kill thousands.

    Can't help but think that if the internet had been launched fully formed on Day One with a big fanfare, it wouldn't necessarily look like it does today. There might have been a bit more thought given to complete arseholes facing a STFU button, for example.
    Most of the time the unfettered freedom is a big plus even when there are major downsides.

    Anti vaxxers of that conspiracist type get people killed though. That Piers Corbyn one looked like a parody - it had holocaust imagery, reference to Bill Gates, microchips, autism, David Icke, the works.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001

    Who is snarling now?

    You are. Constantly.

    Look back at the weekend threads. Continuous demands from Brexiteers that everybody uniformly condemn the EU for fucking up and having the temerity to try and fix it.

    The 2 minute hate lasted 2 days...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2021
    eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    From one perspective, the attack on GME shorts is basically a Ponzi scheme.

    https://twitter.com/aaronhuertas/status/1355153781063905281

    I don't buy that trading should be regulated to stop people falling into bubble traps. Bubbles - TSLA, London top end housing market can last a err... while - and well investing in the stock market has always been swimming with sharks. Let each investor decide according to his risk appetite.
    $GME (I never got involved) was basically a pump scheme but a positive sum one with the other side coming from Melvin Capital due to their short position.
    Is Bitcoin a bubble ? Who knows at this point. Is Dogecoin ? Certainly, I'm up around £90 through trading that (In tiny size !) though.
    $GME is a bet like much else in life. What was reprehensible was trading apps restricting purchases, forcing sales and only allowing people to sell. Not a fair market at that point.
    Pumping can be illegal for a reason. Much of the money lost from this will be from mugs who have fallen for a Ponzi, not from Melvin Capital.

    Entirely possible someone will face serious prosecution once this is over with. Maybe not, but I wouldn't rule it out.
    A Ponzi scheme is where the organizer intentionally pays the profits of early investors from the investments of later investors.

    GME is many things but its not a Ponzi scheme.
    Pump and dump works a similar way.

    The organiser intentionally puts in money to pump, thus making profits for the early investors until the mugs come in and he can dump it.

    Different concepts but boil down to similar concepts. As do many frauds. For the mugs who lose their shirt there's little meaningful difference.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,086
    edited February 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    Who is snarling now?

    You are. Constantly.

    Look back at the weekend threads. Continuous demands from Brexiteers that everybody uniformly condemn the EU for fucking up and having the temerity to try and fix it.

    The 2 minute hate lasted 2 days...
    The EU haven't tried to fix it....they have just attempted attempted to blame everybody else for their failings.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001

    We are now turning down work as we simply don't have the staff to do it. We have four permanent job adverts on Indeed and nobody applies.

    Get some Poles. Oh, wait...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933
    Fishing said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

    Six US states now over 2,000 deaths/m pop. No proper country has yet achieved this. Belgium 1,815/m.

    Proceed with care, Ishmael.

    The US is proving to be a bit of a laboratory for lockdown versus not. Is there much difference in outcome between the states that have locked down hard, versus those that haven't?

    There better be, for the sake of the lockdowners.
    Are we still arguing about whether or not lockdowns work? Just look at the case chart earlier last year for the answer to that question.
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

    Look at the case charts of US states that have not imposed lockdowns.

    Same result. Without the horrendous effects, of course.

    Oh dear. Awks. very awks
    Is the behaviour of people in states without a lockdown identical to before the pandemic started. Or is it just they have a de facto lockdown rather than de jure?
    I don't know, which is why I am being cautious. But its certainly something that will looked at when this is over. If it ever is.

    The effect of lockdown is undeniable when you look at how cases plunged after the first lockdown. Unless you think something else was at work here?
    I've seen people argue that social distancing was more important as various measures of the spread peaked before the first lockdown.

    My guess is that they both contributed, but as ever in social science, working out cause and effect will always be controversial.
    If it was only social distancing there wouldn't have been a second wave, since I don't think that has been particularly relaxed recently. Agreed they likely both play a part. After all, lockdown is just more social distancing.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866
    Nigelb said:

    Valneva SE CFO David Lawrence told the Today Programme that whilst the UK has been in discussions and had signed deals since the summer of 2020, the EU is yet to sign even a letter of intent with the firm, which is headquartered in Paris...

    “Yes they should. Of course it comes down to slots. In turn we have got suppliers and this is why it’s important for example that the UK has exercised its option now, so we have got to book slots with suppliers who are giving us key components for the vaccine. The same will be true of other vaccines, the supply process isn’t something that you can just switch on and switch off over a couple of weeks.”

    The EU are going to be wrecking the aisles again when they find out "their" chocolate buttons have already been sold to somebody else.

    The stupidity of this is remarkable.

    If they didn't realise six months ago that vaccine investment is the most extreme example of a cost/benefit analysis favouring investment that governments have seen this century, they really ought to have done so by now.
    It's a dereliction of duty to the whole world to not have one of the richest parts of it not building new production capacity. We're about to have 600m annual product capacity of various types of vaccine in the UK from what was basically zero last year. If the EU had invested on a similar basis the whole world would have an additional 4bn doses worth of capacity which could be used for the developing world towards the end of the year.

    They EU and its member states have not done their fair share on vaccine development or manufacturing and now European citizens are paying the price, soon the whole world will be paying the price for it because the pandemic rumbles on.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    fox327 said:

    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    Vaccine anecdote:

    Friend, phlebotomist working in Addenbroke's.

    Plenty of frontline staff/colleagues being jabbed. Plenty of BAME such people refusing to be jabbed.

    And that is both a mystery and a problem.

    Why is it that BAME people seem less willing to be vaccinated, what is discouraging them and how do we resolve it.
    Currently everything is contingent on known unknowns: the effectiveness of the vaccines and the emergence of new variants of the virus.

    Other things being equal, however, proof of vaccination may eventually be requested for new members of staff of the NHS and care homes and for medical and nursing students, if it is shown that vaccines are effective at reducing transmission of the virus. This would be for the protection of co-workers and clients. Other employers may also then be given discretion to request this.
    My point was actually a more psychological one - what reasons are BAME people giving for refusing the vaccine and how do we fix those issues / misconceptions.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Who is snarling now?

    You are. Constantly.

    Look back at the weekend threads. Continuous demands from Brexiteers that everybody uniformly condemn the EU for fucking up and having the temerity to try and fix it.

    The 2 minute hate lasted 2 days...
    LOL! I never demanded anything.

    Decent people chose to condemn the EU because they have fucked up and tried to fuck over Ireland and the UK rather than fix it.

    I never hated on anyone. Though given you have sold your soul to pander to the EU I can understand it might have felt that way, when even people like Williamglenn, Richard Nabavi, Cyclefree and AlastairMeeks are condemning the EU maybe you should think about your principles if you still think everything is Brexiteers fault?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,117
    Lawrence Fox pitching his new party towards hardline social conservatives

    https://twitter.com/LozzaFox/status/1356203537601069056?s=20
This discussion has been closed.