Many thanks to Alastair for this header - really interesting and has convinced me that SIndy2 is on.
One strategy he doesn't cover is what happens if a boycott happens from the 'No' side. This would undermine the legitimacy of the referendum (I believe a similar tactic was tried with Puerto Rican statehood). The SNP would be hard pushed to get 50%+1 of the electorate voting yes I'd imagine.
A fair way to handle the vaccination problem would be to ensure the elderly in all countries get to go first. I wonder whether we will see a move amongst young people to refuse the vaccine until the more vulnerable elsewhere in the world have been covered.
QTWAIN. And why should they?
Are the more vulnerable in the poor countries in the world better served by a lack of international aid because the young in the rich world are still sheltering in their homes?
Or are they better served by getting billions of doses in aid thanks to the generosity of the rich world who having vaccinated their own are now capable of turning their attention to to eradicating this virus around the globe?
This threader is sophistry and pish in equal measure.
The matter will end, maybe after years, with the SCOTUK, which will surely rule in favour of Westminster having reserved powers to allow a binding referendum,
Sturgeon will then have the dilemma of calling a wildcat "advisory" vote (and risking a definite boycott and a Catalan outcome, where support for Catindy has now fallen), or biding her time, and waiting for a parliament more amenable in 2024.
Will this attitude from London provoke increased support for indy? Yes, quite possibly. But then, if London looks likely to lose a vote in 2022-2023, then it has nothing to lose and everything to gain by holding firm, and hoping for a change of mood.
What the heck is a "binding" referendum on a subject like this?
The EU Referendum wasn't "binding".
The question before SCOTUK will surely be whether they can lawfully hold a referendum - since under previous SCOTUK ruling all referenda are advisory, that element is moot.
If the SCOTUK rules in favour of the Scottish Parliament that they can legally hold a referendum then that is a game changer. It would be better not to go to Court than to lose that Court case because then the SCOTUK has essentially ruled it is a legal vote, not a wildcat one.
It seems odd to me that a fervent supporter of Brexit wants to take away an opportunity for the people of Scotland to experience the outplaying of some of its benefits, as opposed to just the immediate-term fissures.
Nats desperately want Indyref 2 now, I think because they lack confidence in the accuracy of their dire predictions, and they calculate that there will never be an angrier time than now, or a better opponent than Boris. I am less certain of why you want it now so desperately, you who believes that Brexit is going to be a success. I think five or six years is plenty of time to gage that. Within the context of a 300 year Union, it doesn't seem much? Your haste seems not to be about giving the Scottish people choice, but booting them out the door as quickly as possible. Why? Do you just plain not like them?
I believe in independence. Its why I voted Leave, its why I want the Scots to vote Yes. Independence works. Taking responsibility for yourself works. It is why I am a Conservative.
I don't believe in communitarianism. If the Scots want to be independent I say goodbye and good luck to them. I think it is for the best to be honest.
But either way more importantly than any of that, I believe in democracy. If they vote for it, they should get it.
What if I want to be "independent"? Or Cornwall? Or Shropshire? Hackney? A dog in the Wirral? The East Riding of old Yorkshire?
It might be appealing, in the moment. But at some point a country has to say: No, we are a country, we are unified, we have various traditions and cultures, but the centre must hold. And stay united. Otherwise we will hang apart, if we do not hang together.
Britain has arguably done a worse job of this than any other European country. We are probably the most successful big European nation over the last 300 years, judged in terms of average wealth over time, and being peaceful, safe, democratic and not-being-conquered. The fact we have allowed secessionist movements to develop, despite this success, is a total failure of the British elite, which lacks confidence in its own amazing brand.
Right now, too many posh Brits want the Scots to secede, just to punish the country for voting Leave (I accept your motivations are different)
You havering idiot , you are not a country, just some deluded spotty oick stuck in his bedroom with a keyboard and enough brain cells to be dangerous.
You may remember that yesterday I expressed surprise at the death rate among teaching staff being similar to the community outside, despite the infection rate being triple.
Turns out there are two reasons for this figure.
One is that on the whole teachers are younger than the population at large (something to do with 40% of staff leaving the profession within five years of qualifying).
The other is that the government deliberately excluded all staff over the age of 64, which meant they excluded half of all deaths among school staff, but compared the rate to the population as a whole.
Which is extraordinary. Not only is that blatantly criminal - even by the dreadful standards set by Williamson and Gibb - but were they really so dumb as to think nobody would notice?
I can only hope that the judge gives them all life sentences.
This threader is sophistry and pish in equal measure.
The matter will end, maybe after years, with the SCOTUK, which will surely rule in favour of Westminster having reserved powers to allow a binding referendum,
Sturgeon will then have the dilemma of calling a wildcat "advisory" vote (and risking a definite boycott and a Catalan outcome, where support for Catindy has now fallen), or biding her time, and waiting for a parliament more amenable in 2024.
Will this attitude from London provoke increased support for indy? Yes, quite possibly. But then, if London looks likely to lose a vote in 2022-2023, then it has nothing to lose and everything to gain by holding firm, and hoping for a change of mood.
What the heck is a "binding" referendum on a subject like this?
The EU Referendum wasn't "binding".
The question before SCOTUK will surely be whether they can lawfully hold a referendum - since under previous SCOTUK ruling all referenda are advisory, that element is moot.
If the SCOTUK rules in favour of the Scottish Parliament that they can legally hold a referendum then that is a game changer. It would be better not to go to Court than to lose that Court case because then the SCOTUK has essentially ruled it is a legal vote, not a wildcat one.
It seems odd to me that a fervent supporter of Brexit wants to take away an opportunity for the people of Scotland to experience the outplaying of some of its benefits, as opposed to just the immediate-term fissures.
Nats desperately want Indyref 2 now, I think because they lack confidence in the accuracy of their dire predictions, and they calculate that there will never be an angrier time than now, or a better opponent than Boris. I am less certain of why you want it now so desperately, you who believes that Brexit is going to be a success. I think five or six years is plenty of time to gage that. Within the context of a 300 year Union, it doesn't seem much? Your haste seems not to be about giving the Scottish people choice, but booting them out the door as quickly as possible. Why? Do you just plain not like them?
I believe in independence. Its why I voted Leave, its why I want the Scots to vote Yes. Independence works. Taking responsibility for yourself works. It is why I am a Conservative.
I don't believe in communitarianism. If the Scots want to be independent I say goodbye and good luck to them. I think it is for the best to be honest.
But either way more importantly than any of that, I believe in democracy. If they vote for it, they should get it.
What if I want to be "independent"? Or Cornwall? Or Shropshire? Hackney? A dog in the Wirral? The East Riding of old Yorkshire?
It might be appealing, in the moment. But at some point a country has to say: No, we are a country, we are unified, we have various traditions and cultures, but the centre must hold. And stay united. Otherwise we will hang apart, if we do not hang together.
Britain has arguably done a worse job of this than any other European country. We are probably the most successful big European nation over the last 300 years, judged in terms of average wealth over time, and being peaceful, safe, democratic and not-being-conquered. The fact we have allowed secessionist movements to develop, despite this success, is a total failure of the British elite, which lacks confidence in its own amazing brand.
Right now, too many posh Brits want the Scots to secede, just to punish the country for voting Leave (I accept your motivations are different)
You havering idiot , you are not a country, just some deluded spotty oick stuck in his bedroom with a keyboard and enough brain cells to be dangerous.
Oh come on, Malc. In all respects, Leon is the hardest man ever. Flint dildos and all that.
Mr. rkrkrk, you don't get to steal medicine because you screwed up.
The latter question is more difficult to answer. If we get to the stage of having most of our adult population vaccinated while the EU is still failing dramatically (assuming no vaccination export bans have been inflicted on us) I wouldn't be opposed to sharing vaccination supplies. Not redirecting wholesale, but splitting it.
We should also, if and when able, assist Commonwealth nations with vaccination.
EU cannot be remotely serious about vaccine export bans, can they?
Talking about supply is one thing, but the day they actually start blocking them is the day they start to seriously upset a number of countries and companies.
I voted to leave the EU because they’re an inward-looking and protectionist organisation that falsely preaches free trade and global co-operation - here’s a great example of that in action.
Yep.
The behaviour of the EU these past few weeks has made me, a Remainer, considerably less pro-EU. If there were another referendum held today I would possibly vote Brexit based on their appalling vaccine response.
They're lashing out because they have right-royally screwed up. And the idea that the EU has to buy in all the vaccine supplies on behalf of its member nations is horrendous.
It's everything that is the stinking bureaucratic putrid heap of dung that embodies the over-centralised EU monolith.
'me, a Remainer'
'the stinking bureaucratic putrid heap of dung that embodies the over-centralised EU monolith'
Golly, the scales have pinged off your eyes at some rate. Sorry for your loss.
No I was always only a narrow remainer and I weighed the pros and cons carefully. Something in my mind like a 52-48 split.
It's one of the failings of analysts that they assume Brexiteers and Remainers were all diehards. Many of us were genuinely torn.
In my view the EU has some real pros. It also has some serious cons. Every so often the EU does something really stupid to bring those cons to the fore. This is one such occasion.
I was very similar but ironically I always thought a European Health Service would be a great levelling idea - much better than silly Common Agricultural Policies and some of the other crap. However, the vaccine experience has shown how wrong I was sadly.
An EHS, or the threat of one, would have made the Brexit referendum 65-35 rather than 52-48. If the EU were to adopt a common model it wouldn’t be the NHS they would look at but Germany or France.
I would have been quite keen on it TBH, but it would have been impossible to sell to the UK public.
This threader is sophistry and pish in equal measure.
The matter will end, maybe after years, with the SCOTUK, which will surely rule in favour of Westminster having reserved powers to allow a binding referendum,
Sturgeon will then have the dilemma of calling a wildcat "advisory" vote (and risking a definite boycott and a Catalan outcome, where support for Catindy has now fallen), or biding her time, and waiting for a parliament more amenable in 2024.
Will this attitude from London provoke increased support for indy? Yes, quite possibly. But then, if London looks likely to lose a vote in 2022-2023, then it has nothing to lose and everything to gain by holding firm, and hoping for a change of mood.
What the heck is a "binding" referendum on a subject like this?
The EU Referendum wasn't "binding".
The question before SCOTUK will surely be whether they can lawfully hold a referendum - since under previous SCOTUK ruling all referenda are advisory, that element is moot.
If the SCOTUK rules in favour of the Scottish Parliament that they can legally hold a referendum then that is a game changer. It would be better not to go to Court than to lose that Court case because then the SCOTUK has essentially ruled it is a legal vote, not a wildcat one.
It seems odd to me that a fervent supporter of Brexit wants to take away an opportunity for the people of Scotland to experience the outplaying of some of its benefits, as opposed to just the immediate-term fissures.
Nats desperately want Indyref 2 now, I think because they lack confidence in the accuracy of their dire predictions, and they calculate that there will never be an angrier time than now, or a better opponent than Boris. I am less certain of why you want it now so desperately, you who believes that Brexit is going to be a success. I think five or six years is plenty of time to gage that. Within the context of a 300 year Union, it doesn't seem much? Your haste seems not to be about giving the Scottish people choice, but booting them out the door as quickly as possible. Why? Do you just plain not like them?
I believe in independence. Its why I voted Leave, its why I want the Scots to vote Yes. Independence works. Taking responsibility for yourself works. It is why I am a Conservative.
I don't believe in communitarianism. If the Scots want to be independent I say goodbye and good luck to them. I think it is for the best to be honest.
But either way more importantly than any of that, I believe in democracy. If they vote for it, they should get it.
I don't really see how the Scots are not 'taking responsibility for themselves' within the context of the UK. They are doing that as much as anyone else here is. It seems rather patronising to suggest otherwise.
You are entitled to your belief, but I am interested to note that there isn't really what I would call a coherent argument here behind your support for Sindy - certainly not your being in lockstep with the SNP's timings over it. But oh well - all part of PB's rich tapestry.
I'm not in lockstep with the SNP's timings - I have said I respect the decision of the Scottish electorate. I don't get a vote on this subject.
If the Scottish electorate give the SNP a majority on a clear and unambiguous manifesto pledge the such is democracy. If they deny the SNP a majority then that too is democracy. That is for the Scottish voters to decide and I don't have a vote in that election any more than I had a vote in who should be Labour leader.
As for "taking responsibility for themselves" then the issue is that for any issue the goto response is to blame London, even if its a mess of their own making. That's not taking responsibility for yourselves. It is the same argument as to why Brexit was a good idea because British politicians could no longer hide between blaming Brussels. Exactly the same principle.
Just popped in to have a quick look and find another - again interesting - header in indyref 2. Thank you.
BTW the prorogation crisis should have made people realise Scots law also exists, so that is another factor (as Scotuk doesn't like striking it down just cos English law is different, as we also saw re prorogation).
And I won't comment in detail on the tone of some of the commentary on here, which is little short of colonialist in its thinking or at least its desperate hopes - for what else is saying No to a politically legitimate vote?
Carnyx , you should know by now that the usual suspects on here actually believe we are a colony and should be counting our blessings. Same frothers every time, though there are more thoughtful intelligent thinking posted now than previously.
You may remember that yesterday I expressed surprise at the death rate among teaching staff being similar to the community outside, despite the infection rate being triple.
Turns out there are two reasons for this figure.
One is that on the whole teachers are younger than the population at large (something to do with 40% of staff leaving the profession within five years of qualifying).
The other is that the government deliberately excluded all staff over the age of 64, which meant they excluded half of all deaths among school staff, but compared the rate to the population as a whole.
Which is extraordinary. Not only is that blatantly criminal - even by the dreadful standards set by Williamson and Gibb - but were they really so dumb as to think nobody would notice?
I can only hope that the judge gives them all life sentences.
I’d rather have Jaws than Gavin Williamson as Secretary of State for Education. At least Jaws was capable of changing his mind.
Or perhaps, more interestingly, we could cast Gavin Williamson as the villain in the next Bond movie. Urbane, slightly weird, dodgy links to a foreign power, indirectly responsible for lots of deaths.
‘Do you know him?’ ‘Not socially. His name’s Gavin Williamson. He kills people.’
Also back on topic (yes, I know...), the trump card the SNP can play is simple. A manifesto which explicitly states that a vote for an SNP government is a vote for a new referendum on independence.
The Unionist parties can then campaign against the SNP on their various versions on support for the Union. Should the SNP secure a working majority then the will of the people is clear.
For me this is an absolute bear trap that the Tories are walking into. Supposedly someone has handed Boris paperwork proposing a "kick it into the long grass" commission on the constitution. As he is also trying to reshape constituencies in his favour and abolish an entire tier of local government to centralise even more power, it is obvious what the agenda is.
Should the commission be rejected in favour of a referendum then we're back down to colonialism. 'Yes you Scotch people with your kilts and your deep fried mars bars, you can vote if you want to, but unfortunately if you're going to vote wrong we will ignore your clear wishes and do the opposite because we matter and you don't.'
An advisory referendum and the "will of the people" became the word of God. The manifesto pledge to Get Brexit Done a literal instruction. Its politically impossible for this government to credibly try to claim the opposite is true in Scotland. They'll try because they aren't politically credible, but it won't stick.
Their only hope is to muster a Scottish election campaign where Labour, the Tories and the LibDems beat the SNP. Yeah, I know...
Even if between Labour, Tories and the LibDems they get more than 50% of the vote the SNP are going to get a majority of the seats.
Boris is going to have to resign quick if Scottish Independence isn't deemed to be his fault.
Worrying if the EU bans exports of the Pfizer vaccine to the U.K. Disgraceful too.
What then happens to those needing their second injection?
Hope the family are all a bit better.
ON the topic of the moment - it was inevitable.
I think I mentioned Ian Bank's book Excession previously - a society of god like AI, in a post scarcity society, where there is total equality and infinite wealth... and they encounter a situation where there is a singular, valuable item. Instantly, they revert back to lies, schemes and violence.
It is very easy to suppose that we are all above this.
But consider - last year, in January, the idea of shutting an EU border was unthinkable. Not even Nigel Farage suggested that in his campaign to stop-the-illegal-migrant-hordes that pulling up the drawbridge was an option. Now the variations on close-the-border are solemnly debated on the serious, evening TV opinion programs....
In January, the idea that countries would seize exports for others would have seen crazy. By June a number had done it. And it is still going on in the PPE area - exports of some items are still blocked.
Interesting Headlines are "The UK employment rate, in the three months to November 2020, was estimated at 75.2%, 1.1 percentage points lower than a year earlier and 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous quarter.
The UK unemployment rate, in the three months to November 2020, was estimated at 5.0%, 1.2 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous quarter.
In the three months to November 2020, the redundancy rate reached a record high of 14.2 per thousand.
Early estimates for December 2020 indicate that the number of payrolled employees fell by 2.7% compared with December 2019, which is a fall of 793,000 employees; since February 2020, 828,000 fewer people were in payrolled employment.
The Claimant Count increased slightly in December 2020, to 2.6 million; this includes both those working with low income or hours and those who are not working.
There were an estimated 578,000 vacancies in the UK in October to December 2020; this is 224,000 fewer than a year ago and 81,000 more than the previous quarter.
Growth in average total pay (including bonuses) among employees for the three months September to November 2020 increased to 3.6%, and growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) also increased to 3.6%."
So a 1.1% fall in employment and a 1.2% increase in unemployment. The average wage situation suggests that the job losses are concentrated at the lower end. This is not good but personally I am amazed that its not a lot worse. May still be being buffered by the furlough scheme of course.
Also back on topic (yes, I know...), the trump card the SNP can play is simple. A manifesto which explicitly states that a vote for an SNP government is a vote for a new referendum on independence.
The Unionist parties can then campaign against the SNP on their various versions on support for the Union. Should the SNP secure a working majority then the will of the people is clear.
For me this is an absolute bear trap that the Tories are walking into. Supposedly someone has handed Boris paperwork proposing a "kick it into the long grass" commission on the constitution. As he is also trying to reshape constituencies in his favour and abolish an entire tier of local government to centralise even more power, it is obvious what the agenda is.
Should the commission be rejected in favour of a referendum then we're back down to colonialism. 'Yes you Scotch people with your kilts and your deep fried mars bars, you can vote if you want to, but unfortunately if you're going to vote wrong we will ignore your clear wishes and do the opposite because we matter and you don't.'
An advisory referendum and the "will of the people" became the word of God. The manifesto pledge to Get Brexit Done a literal instruction. Its politically impossible for this government to credibly try to claim the opposite is true in Scotland. They'll try because they aren't politically credible, but it won't stick.
Their only hope is to muster a Scottish election campaign where Labour, the Tories and the LibDems beat the SNP. Yeah, I know...
Even if between Labour, Tories and the LibDems they get more than 50% of the vote the SNP are going to get a majority of the seats.
Boris is going to have to resign quick if Scottish Independence isn't deemed to be his fault.
A plurality.
They may get a majority, but it isn’t easy to do. One of the great shocks of 2011 was that they managed it when the system had been gerrymandered designed to ensure nobody could.
Apologies it wasn’t just the right wing press failing to report what the EU actually said but the Guardian is also guilty of a headline which doesn’t actually match the body of the report . Can someone find me the statement where the EU said they will ban exports to the UK . All I can find is the EU want to know where Pfizer is exporting and how many doses that is . What would the UK public think if for example AstraZeneca which has a factory in the UK failed to fulfill its contract with the government but at the same time was fulfilling orders with the EU . Would you expect the government to shrug its shoulders and let the matter rest .
Sad day. This is what happens when everyone pursues a narrow national self interest. We will see more and more of this politically expedient finger pointing and threats. Far easier than solving underlying problems and working together.
By everyone I guess you mean either the EU or the German press?
We’ve just spent four years talking about taking back control. It’s not a huge surprise that others are doing the same. Even now we’re playing silly buggers with the EU embassy for some bizarre, unfathomable reason.
Yes, yes - its all our fault.
The EU aren't being complete dicks at all.
Oh sorry - you might prefer I refer to them as "some countries and blocks"
Try and defend/ deflect all you like but this shows the EU at its absolute worst
One minister tells me the plan is for Johnson to announce that he considers the UK’s existing constitutional architecture is not working. Whether these issues are to be remitted to a constitutional commission of some kind, perhaps similar to the one proposed by the Labour leader Keir Starmer in December, will soon be made clear. These discussions are described as “very live”. But the target audience is clear: the voters whom ministers describe as the majority of the electorate in all four parts of the UK who do not have a passion for breaking up Britain.
Until recently, the Johnson government’s policy towards all this was to just say no. But that is changing now. There is panic and realism in the new approach. The SNP is formidable but not unbeatable. Divisions between reformists and ultras – between Sturgeon and Alex Salmond and their respective backers – may change the mood. If Sturgeon or any successor is pushed into calling an illegal referendum, it would trigger a widespread boycott that could open the way for different politics.
It is an enormous risk, and time is running out fast.
Ignoring the SNP's referendum wheeze is a bit like lockdown - one can help rid the world of a 'orrible disease just by staying at home.
I believe you fastidiously stayed at home last time out because you felt it wasn't your beeswax, do you now feel Scottish enough to stay at home for tactical electoral reasons? Welcome! Be sure to get a window poster making it clear what your motivation is.
As I said, I would vote in a new Indyref (a legally binding one). And I don't think it's really about feeling Scottish. I have nothing but admiration and love for Scotland and its people, but I don't think I feel any more Scottish than I did when I arrived - though I have learned a lot and gained a far greater understanding, great love of Scotch whisky and Scottish food, and lots of wonderful Scottish friends. For me it's more about being invested and committed here. I suppose you'd have to live in England for a while to understand the perspective. You are part of something but not.
If the joke ref happens, I won't participate. It won't be a big statement, I'll just have other stuff on.
I suspect that there isn't a single template on how one feels about living in a place that you weren't born/brought up in, in fact I'm bloody sure there isn't. Nevertheless I'm glad you feel invested and committed however it manifests itself.
Except he doesn't feel committed to voting. That is a shame.
Obviously the only Scottish refs worth voting in are those authorised by a Tory PM elected by English people.
No, the only referendums worth voting in are the ones sanctioned by the supreme legal, democratic parliament of the UK: Westminster, In which English, Welsh, Norn and Scottish MPs are fully represented, and who take into account the future wellbeing - political and economic and constitutional - of the whole UK.
A few years ago this same parliament, including Scots MPs, voted to allow a Scottish independence referendum. It turned out to be fairly close. But No won, by a wide ten points. The general sense then was that this was a done deal, thereafter, for a generation.
If you can persuade the UK's sovereign parliament, representing all the British people, to reconsider, and allow an unexpectedly early 2nd vote, good luck to you
I suggest that threatening the UK with wildcat votes and UDI is not the way to go
Mr. Jonathan, the prevention of vaccine exports during a pandemic from a bloc that has screwed up its own response to a country that has acted more competently is* wretched behaviour.
It's utterly immoral, and would poison relations by an order of magnitude more than the comparatively trifling matter of an ambassador's status.
Edited extra bit: *would be
If they are not careful, the UK will leave again. That'll show them.
EU cannot be remotely serious about vaccine export bans, can they?
Talking about supply is one thing, but the day they actually start blocking them is the day they start to seriously upset a number of countries and companies.
I voted to leave the EU because they’re an inward-looking and protectionist organisation that falsely preaches free trade and global co-operation - here’s a great example of that in action.
Yep.
The behaviour of the EU these past few weeks has made me, a Remainer, considerably less pro-EU. If there were another referendum held today I would possibly vote Brexit based on their appalling vaccine response.
They're lashing out because they have right-royally screwed up. And the idea that the EU has to buy in all the vaccine supplies on behalf of its member nations is horrendous.
It's everything that is the stinking bureaucratic putrid heap of dung that embodies the over-centralised EU monolith.
'me, a Remainer'
'the stinking bureaucratic putrid heap of dung that embodies the over-centralised EU monolith'
Golly, the scales have pinged off your eyes at some rate. Sorry for your loss.
No I was always only a narrow remainer and I weighed the pros and cons carefully. Something in my mind like a 52-48 split.
It's one of the failings of analysts that they assume Brexiteers and Remainers were all diehards. Many of us were genuinely torn.
In my view the EU has some real pros. It also has some serious cons. Every so often the EU does something really stupid to bring those cons to the fore. This is one such occasion.
I was very similar but ironically I always thought a European Health Service would be a great levelling idea - much better than silly Common Agricultural Policies and some of the other crap. However, the vaccine experience has shown how wrong I was sadly.
An EHS, or the threat of one, would have made the Brexit referendum 65-35 rather than 52-48. If the EU were to adopt a common model it wouldn’t be the NHS they would look at but Germany or France.
I would have been quite keen on it TBH, but it would have been impossible to sell to the UK public.
I'm sure you are right. the UK NHS is good. It is not the best in the world. It's greatest problem is that political parties encourage blind worship of some of our institutions. Very silly.
Mr Meeks misses the other point which is that since the last vote on independence the constitution of the United Kingdom was irrevocably altered by a referendum against the wishes and vote of the Scottish people. That seems to be a prima facie argument for another referendum.
The criticism of Boris Johnson as 'so often short-sighted' does not square with the UK's vaccine programme. The pre-ordering in bulk from multiple vaccine suppliers is one of the greatest far-sighted decisions of any British Gov't in the history of these isles. Don't make cheap shots where they're not deserved and have the good grace to admit it. Otherwise you just come across as embittered.
Britain has the fourth worst death rate from Covid-19 in the world, behind only San Marino, Belgium and Slovenia. If you laid the bodies of those who died in Britain from Covid-19 end to end, they would stretch from London to Leeds.
If Britain had done as well as France - a country that has not done well in the pandemic - 10,000 people would not have died of Covid-19. If it had done as well as Germany, 50,000 people would not have died.
Those deaths in large part can be attributed directly to Boris Johnson’s inexplicable lethargy in locking down. Even now he dithers about effectively controlling international travel. Even now, as the pandemic rages, he flirts with ending lockdown.
In your eagerness to step over all those corpses to lay into me, you insult the memory of every one of those people who died unnecessarily because of the disgusting failures of the Prime Minister. In the words of Rick & Morty, I welcome your boos, I’ve seen who you cheer.
The book on this subject is far from finished being written.
France may have a better death rate currently, though possibly more by good luck than good management. Their case loads were dramatically higher than the UK's until the Kent mutation arose - had it been a Lyon mutation that arose instead, then given the lack of strain monitoring going on in France and the higher baseload of cases at the time then the situation for France and the entire world who got the early warning from the UK's advanced strain monitoring would have been far worse. Not that I expect you to acknowledge that the UK has got some things right and some things wrong as I would.
But even having said that, even with the Cockney Covid, this story isn't over yet. As of yesterday's stats the UK had done 10.38 vaccinations per 100 people while France have done 1.57 per 100 people. Tragically unless that starts to change fast it is going to take a miracle for France to finish with a death toll below the UK's.
PS since this is the first time I've spoken to you post-Brexit can I say I hope there's been no interruption to your husband's medication which I know you were afraid about as a Brexit risk and you mentioned to me a few times. Hope that hasn't been interrupted.
Apologies it wasn’t just the right wing press failing to report what the EU actually said but the Guardian is also guilty of a headline which doesn’t actually match the body of the report . Can someone find me the statement where the EU said they will ban exports to the UK . All I can find is the EU want to know where Pfizer is exporting and how many doses that is . What would the UK public think if for example AstraZeneca which has a factory in the UK failed to fulfill its contract with the government but at the same time was fulfilling orders with the EU . Would you expect the government to shrug its shoulders and let the matter rest .
I’d expect them to make a lot of outraged noise and totally cock up the response.
Because that is what empty populists like Johnson do.
But are we really saying that the EU have demonstrated they are as nasty, stupid and incompetent as Boris Johnson’s government? Because it doesn’t sound like a ringing endorsement of either their strategy or their ability.
This threader is sophistry and pish in equal measure.
The matter will end, maybe after years, with the SCOTUK, which will surely rule in favour of Westminster having reserved powers to allow a binding referendum,
Sturgeon will then have the dilemma of calling a wildcat "advisory" vote (and risking a definite boycott and a Catalan outcome, where support for Catindy has now fallen), or biding her time, and waiting for a parliament more amenable in 2024.
Will this attitude from London provoke increased support for indy? Yes, quite possibly. But then, if London looks likely to lose a vote in 2022-2023, then it has nothing to lose and everything to gain by holding firm, and hoping for a change of mood.
What the heck is a "binding" referendum on a subject like this?
The EU Referendum wasn't "binding".
The question before SCOTUK will surely be whether they can lawfully hold a referendum - since under previous SCOTUK ruling all referenda are advisory, that element is moot.
If the SCOTUK rules in favour of the Scottish Parliament that they can legally hold a referendum then that is a game changer. It would be better not to go to Court than to lose that Court case because then the SCOTUK has essentially ruled it is a legal vote, not a wildcat one.
It seems odd to me that a fervent supporter of Brexit wants to take away an opportunity for the people of Scotland to experience the outplaying of some of its benefits, as opposed to just the immediate-term fissures.
Nats desperately want Indyref 2 now, I think because they lack confidence in the accuracy of their dire predictions, and they calculate that there will never be an angrier time than now, or a better opponent than Boris. I am less certain of why you want it now so desperately, you who believes that Brexit is going to be a success. I think five or six years is plenty of time to gage that. Within the context of a 300 year Union, it doesn't seem much? Your haste seems not to be about giving the Scottish people choice, but booting them out the door as quickly as possible. Why? Do you just plain not like them?
I believe in independence. Its why I voted Leave, its why I want the Scots to vote Yes. Independence works. Taking responsibility for yourself works. It is why I am a Conservative.
I don't believe in communitarianism. If the Scots want to be independent I say goodbye and good luck to them. I think it is for the best to be honest.
But either way more importantly than any of that, I believe in democracy. If they vote for it, they should get it.
I don't really see how the Scots are not 'taking responsibility for themselves' within the context of the UK. They are doing that as much as anyone else here is. It seems rather patronising to suggest otherwise.
You are entitled to your belief, but I am interested to note that there isn't really what I would call a coherent argument here behind your support for Sindy - certainly not your being in lockstep with the SNP's timings over it. But oh well - all part of PB's rich tapestry.
I'm not in lockstep with the SNP's timings - I have said I respect the decision of the Scottish electorate. I don't get a vote on this subject.
If the Scottish electorate give the SNP a majority on a clear and unambiguous manifesto pledge the such is democracy. If they deny the SNP a majority then that too is democracy. That is for the Scottish voters to decide and I don't have a vote in that election any more than I had a vote in who should be Labour leader.
As for "taking responsibility for themselves" then the issue is that for any issue the goto response is to blame London, even if its a mess of their own making. That's not taking responsibility for yourselves. It is the same argument as to why Brexit was a good idea because British politicians could no longer hide between blaming Brussels. Exactly the same principle.
Just popped in to have a quick look and find another - again interesting - header in indyref 2. Thank you.
BTW the prorogation crisis should have made people realise Scots law also exists, so that is another factor (as Scotuk doesn't like striking it down just cos English law is different, as we also saw re prorogation).
And I won't comment in detail on the tone of some of the commentary on here, which is little short of colonialist in its thinking or at least its desperate hopes - for what else is saying No to a politically legitimate vote?
Carnyx , you should know by now that the usual suspects on here actually believe we are a colony and should be counting our blessings. Same frothers every time, though there are more thoughtful intelligent thinking posted now than previously.
The only person I have noticed on here who thinks Scotland is a colony is you, because you have no understanding of your own country’s history. The basic problem with nationalists, whether the Scots version or the Brexiteer variety is that you have a complex neurosis where you can’t quite decide whether you are exceptional and somehow superior or, on the other hand, subjugated and inferior. Try chilling out and being comfortable in your own skin. You are not a colony. You are also no better or worse than the folk south of the border that you hate so much.
Mr. Jonathan, I'm not talking about rhetoric. I'm talking about the credible threat of preventing the export of life-saving medicine because the EU failed its response to the pandemic.
If the roles were reversed - would you be keen to see the UK export vaccine it desperately needed?
I'm conflicted on this. I wish there was enough to go around for everyone. Clearly the UK has paid for X and so should get X. But there is surely a point at which that breaks down...
If the UK was vaccinating 30y/olds like myself while Italy had shortages for those in the 65+ category... would it really be so unreasonable for them to refuse to export?
If the companies were obliged to do so then yes, of course. If those doses were bought and paid for and owned by other countries then yes of course.
You don't solve your own problems by stealing other people's property.
The book on this subject is far from finished being written.
France may have a better death rate currently, though possibly more by good luck than good management. Their case loads were dramatically higher than the UK's until the Kent mutation arose - had it been a Lyon mutation that arose instead, then given the lack of strain monitoring going on in France and the higher baseload of cases at the time then the situation for France and the entire world who got the early warning from the UK's advanced strain monitoring would have been far worse. Not that I expect you to acknowledge that the UK has got some things right and some things wrong as I would.
But even having said that, even with the Cockney Covid, this story isn't over yet. As of yesterday's stats the UK had done 10.38 vaccinations per 100 people while France have done 1.57 per 100 people. Tragically unless that starts to change fast it is going to take a miracle for France to finish with a death toll below the UK's.
PS since this is the first time I've spoken to you post-Brexit can I say I hope there's been no interruption to your husband's medication which I know you were afraid about as a Brexit risk and you mentioned to me a few times. Hope that hasn't been interrupted.
You were entirely happy to risk that disruption. So you can shove your mealy-mouthed expression of hope up your arse.
I've never had black bun, or Rumbledethumps! Both look like I'd enjoy them - Scottish food is amazing.
I have never even heard of rumbledthumps. It must be a purely border thing. Looks and sounds quite tasty though.
Too posh David,
Do you get them in Ayrshire? Its certainly not a Dundee or Angus thing but someone suggested it was a Gordon Brown favourite so presumably in south Fife.
But I must concede the posh bit, my haggis last night came from Markies!
Also back on topic (yes, I know...), the trump card the SNP can play is simple. A manifesto which explicitly states that a vote for an SNP government is a vote for a new referendum on independence.
The Unionist parties can then campaign against the SNP on their various versions on support for the Union. Should the SNP secure a working majority then the will of the people is clear.
For me this is an absolute bear trap that the Tories are walking into. Supposedly someone has handed Boris paperwork proposing a "kick it into the long grass" commission on the constitution. As he is also trying to reshape constituencies in his favour and abolish an entire tier of local government to centralise even more power, it is obvious what the agenda is.
Should the commission be rejected in favour of a referendum then we're back down to colonialism. 'Yes you Scotch people with your kilts and your deep fried mars bars, you can vote if you want to, but unfortunately if you're going to vote wrong we will ignore your clear wishes and do the opposite because we matter and you don't.'
An advisory referendum and the "will of the people" became the word of God. The manifesto pledge to Get Brexit Done a literal instruction. Its politically impossible for this government to credibly try to claim the opposite is true in Scotland. They'll try because they aren't politically credible, but it won't stick.
Their only hope is to muster a Scottish election campaign where Labour, the Tories and the LibDems beat the SNP. Yeah, I know...
Even if between Labour, Tories and the LibDems they get more than 50% of the vote the SNP are going to get a majority of the seats.
Boris is going to have to resign quick if Scottish Independence isn't deemed to be his fault.
A plurality.
They may get a majority, but it isn’t easy to do. One of the great shocks of 2011 was that they managed it when the system had been gerrymandered designed to ensure nobody could.
They did in 2011 and they were close in 2016. This time round I don't think it's even going to be close
Sturgeon is regarded as having a far better Covid than Boris and co have (remember she has always been x hours ahead in doing things) which does the SNP no harm.
And the Scottish Greens will pick up enough seats to ensure the other parties aren't even close.
I really do think the Independence parties will get between 70 and 80 seats (and probably towards the higher end of that range).
Sad day. This is what happens when everyone pursues a narrow national self interest. We will see more and more of this politically expedient finger pointing and threats. Far easier than solving underlying problems and working together.
By everyone I guess you mean either the EU or the German press?
We’ve just spent four years talking about taking back control. It’s not a huge surprise that others are doing the same. Even now we’re playing silly buggers with the EU embassy for some bizarre, unfathomable reason.
Yes, yes - its all our fault.
The EU aren't being complete dicks at all.
Oh sorry - you might prefer I refer to them as "some countries and blocks"
Try and defend/ deflect all you like but this shows the EU at its absolute worst
The EU got this badly wrong. It is sadly predictable. What is ironic and somewhat hypocritical is nationalists condemning the EU and it’s politicians behaving in a nationalist self-interested way. This is the new world we live in. We’re only going to see more of the this sort of nonsense.
People will be out looking for large fridges. Can bet your shirt that he will not meet one real person , will be taken indoors under a blanket to meet some toadies and leave by back door under a blanket. Will be little data on where he will be to avoid much booing and being told to F Off.
This threader is sophistry and pish in equal measure.
The matter will end, maybe after years, with the SCOTUK, which will surely rule in favour of Westminster having reserved powers to allow a binding referendum,
Sturgeon will then have the dilemma of calling a wildcat "advisory" vote (and risking a definite boycott and a Catalan outcome, where support for Catindy has now fallen), or biding her time, and waiting for a parliament more amenable in 2024.
Will this attitude from London provoke increased support for indy? Yes, quite possibly. But then, if London looks likely to lose a vote in 2022-2023, then it has nothing to lose and everything to gain by holding firm, and hoping for a change of mood.
What the heck is a "binding" referendum on a subject like this?
The EU Referendum wasn't "binding".
The question before SCOTUK will surely be whether they can lawfully hold a referendum - since under previous SCOTUK ruling all referenda are advisory, that element is moot.
If the SCOTUK rules in favour of the Scottish Parliament that they can legally hold a referendum then that is a game changer. It would be better not to go to Court than to lose that Court case because then the SCOTUK has essentially ruled it is a legal vote, not a wildcat one.
It seems odd to me that a fervent supporter of Brexit wants to take away an opportunity for the people of Scotland to experience the outplaying of some of its benefits, as opposed to just the immediate-term fissures.
Nats desperately want Indyref 2 now, I think because they lack confidence in the accuracy of their dire predictions, and they calculate that there will never be an angrier time than now, or a better opponent than Boris. I am less certain of why you want it now so desperately, you who believes that Brexit is going to be a success. I think five or six years is plenty of time to gage that. Within the context of a 300 year Union, it doesn't seem much? Your haste seems not to be about giving the Scottish people choice, but booting them out the door as quickly as possible. Why? Do you just plain not like them?
I believe in independence. Its why I voted Leave, its why I want the Scots to vote Yes. Independence works. Taking responsibility for yourself works. It is why I am a Conservative.
I don't believe in communitarianism. If the Scots want to be independent I say goodbye and good luck to them. I think it is for the best to be honest.
But either way more importantly than any of that, I believe in democracy. If they vote for it, they should get it.
I don't really see how the Scots are not 'taking responsibility for themselves' within the context of the UK. They are doing that as much as anyone else here is. It seems rather patronising to suggest otherwise.
You are entitled to your belief, but I am interested to note that there isn't really what I would call a coherent argument here behind your support for Sindy - certainly not your being in lockstep with the SNP's timings over it. But oh well - all part of PB's rich tapestry.
I'm not in lockstep with the SNP's timings - I have said I respect the decision of the Scottish electorate. I don't get a vote on this subject.
If the Scottish electorate give the SNP a majority on a clear and unambiguous manifesto pledge the such is democracy. If they deny the SNP a majority then that too is democracy. That is for the Scottish voters to decide and I don't have a vote in that election any more than I had a vote in who should be Labour leader.
As for "taking responsibility for themselves" then the issue is that for any issue the goto response is to blame London, even if its a mess of their own making. That's not taking responsibility for yourselves. It is the same argument as to why Brexit was a good idea because British politicians could no longer hide between blaming Brussels. Exactly the same principle.
Just popped in to have a quick look and find another - again interesting - header in indyref 2. Thank you.
BTW the prorogation crisis should have made people realise Scots law also exists, so that is another factor (as Scotuk doesn't like striking it down just cos English law is different, as we also saw re prorogation).
And I won't comment in detail on the tone of some of the commentary on here, which is little short of colonialist in its thinking or at least its desperate hopes - for what else is saying No to a politically legitimate vote?
Carnyx , you should know by now that the usual suspects on here actually believe we are a colony and should be counting our blessings. Same frothers every time, though there are more thoughtful intelligent thinking posted now than previously.
The only person I have noticed on here who thinks Scotland is a colony is you, because you have no understanding of your own country’s history. The basic problem with nationalists, whether the Scots version or the Brexiteer variety is that you have a complex neurosis where you can’t quite decide whether you are exceptional and somehow superior or, on the other hand, subjugated and inferior. Try chilling out and being comfortable in your own skin. You are not a colony. You are also no better or worse than the folk south of the border that you hate so much.
They're not a colony, but if having voted as a country in a democratic and fair nationwide general election to hold a second referendum that right is denied to them then that would be making them one.
Sad day. This is what happens when everyone pursues a narrow national self interest. We will see more and more of this politically expedient finger pointing and threats. Far easier than solving underlying problems and working together.
By everyone I guess you mean either the EU or the German press?
We’ve just spent four years talking about taking back control. It’s not a huge surprise that others are doing the same. Even now we’re playing silly buggers with the EU embassy for some bizarre, unfathomable reason.
Yes, yes - its all our fault.
The EU aren't being complete dicks at all.
Oh sorry - you might prefer I refer to them as "some countries and blocks"
Try and defend/ deflect all you like but this shows the EU at its absolute worst
The EU got this badly wrong. It is sadly predictable. What is ironic and somewhat hypocritical is nationalists condemning the EU and it’s politicians behaving in a nationalist self-interested way. This is the new world we live in. We’re only going to see more of the this sort of nonsense.
Is it a new world or just the latest example of such behaviour from the EU?
You may remember that yesterday I expressed surprise at the death rate among teaching staff being similar to the community outside, despite the infection rate being triple.
Turns out there are two reasons for this figure.
One is that on the whole teachers are younger than the population at large (something to do with 40% of staff leaving the profession within five years of qualifying).
The other is that the government deliberately excluded all staff over the age of 64, which meant they excluded half of all deaths among school staff, but compared the rate to the population as a whole.
Which is extraordinary. Not only is that blatantly criminal - even by the dreadful standards set by Williamson and Gibb - but were they really so dumb as to think nobody would notice?
I can only hope that the judge gives them all life sentences.
I’d rather have Jaws than Gavin Williamson as Secretary of State for Education. At least Jaws was capable of changing his mind.
Or perhaps, more interestingly, we could cast Gavin Williamson as the villain in the next Bond movie. Urbane, slightly weird, dodgy links to a foreign power, indirectly responsible for lots of deaths.
‘Do you know him?’ ‘Not socially. His name’s Gavin Williamson. He kills people.’
It's not just Gavin though. It's the whole culture of weasel. Of presenting a dodgy factoid in the knowledge that it won't stand up for long, but not caring.
Mr. Jonathan, the prevention of vaccine exports during a pandemic from a bloc that has screwed up its own response to a country that has acted more competently is* wretched behaviour.
It's utterly immoral, and would poison relations by an order of magnitude more than the comparatively trifling matter of an ambassador's status.
Edited extra bit: *would be
If they are not careful, the UK will leave again. That'll show them.
The UK’s at the stage of posting revenge porn on Facebook (& it would be platform of gammons FB).
Allegedly Shagger will announce some kind of constitutional commission. If I thought this (a) would be a genuine attempt at reform and (b) it would actually recommend the remaking of this country to be at least fit for the 21st century and (c) that such recommendations would be implemented, I would back it.
In reality, its *this* government proposing it. A government who tried to go back on its own key manifesto pledge. With a PM and cabinet comprised of sacked liars, demonstrable fools and Theresa "I didn't say that" Coffey. Someone of the stature of Blair or Thatcher proposing it? Perhaps, but neither did.
So its going to come down a battle of wills. If the electorate return an SNP government on a manifesto of holding an independence referendum, then either Westminster says "we don't care what you think" and thus guarantees independence the minute they are removed from power, or as @Philip_Thompson rightly suggests, tackles it head on.
Ironically many of the factual reasons why Sindy is a bad idea can be demonstrated by the real world impacts of Brexit. As we know, real world practicalities aren't why people vote, and the "that could be Bad" arguments can be batted aside as the people saying that were saying the opposite with regards to Brexit.
People will be out looking for large fridges. Can bet your shirt that he will not meet one real person , will be taken indoors under a blanket to meet some toadies and leave by back door under a blanket. Will be little data on where he will be to avoid much booing and being told to F Off.
It's usually an obscure Outer Isle. This time, Kingussie might have its attractions - being allegedly the place in Scotland which is furthest from the sea.
The book on this subject is far from finished being written.
France may have a better death rate currently, though possibly more by good luck than good management. Their case loads were dramatically higher than the UK's until the Kent mutation arose - had it been a Lyon mutation that arose instead, then given the lack of strain monitoring going on in France and the higher baseload of cases at the time then the situation for France and the entire world who got the early warning from the UK's advanced strain monitoring would have been far worse. Not that I expect you to acknowledge that the UK has got some things right and some things wrong as I would.
But even having said that, even with the Cockney Covid, this story isn't over yet. As of yesterday's stats the UK had done 10.38 vaccinations per 100 people while France have done 1.57 per 100 people. Tragically unless that starts to change fast it is going to take a miracle for France to finish with a death toll below the UK's.
PS since this is the first time I've spoken to you post-Brexit can I say I hope there's been no interruption to your husband's medication which I know you were afraid about as a Brexit risk and you mentioned to me a few times. Hope that hasn't been interrupted.
You were entirely happy to risk that disruption. So you can shove your mealy-mouthed expression of hope up your arse.
The book on this subject is far from finished being written.
France may have a better death rate currently, though possibly more by good luck than good management. Their case loads were dramatically higher than the UK's until the Kent mutation arose - had it been a Lyon mutation that arose instead, then given the lack of strain monitoring going on in France and the higher baseload of cases at the time then the situation for France and the entire world who got the early warning from the UK's advanced strain monitoring would have been far worse. Not that I expect you to acknowledge that the UK has got some things right and some things wrong as I would.
But even having said that, even with the Cockney Covid, this story isn't over yet. As of yesterday's stats the UK had done 10.38 vaccinations per 100 people while France have done 1.57 per 100 people. Tragically unless that starts to change fast it is going to take a miracle for France to finish with a death toll below the UK's.
PS since this is the first time I've spoken to you post-Brexit can I say I hope there's been no interruption to your husband's medication which I know you were afraid about as a Brexit risk and you mentioned to me a few times. Hope that hasn't been interrupted.
You were entirely happy to risk that disruption. So you can shove your mealy-mouthed expression of hope up your arse.
Because there was no risk, it was a fear you blew up out of all proportion because you were afraid.
If someone has agoraphobia then should the rest of us stay inside?
I thought you might have mellowed now your irrational fears have proven not to be real. Shame its not true, hope things get better for you.
You may remember that yesterday I expressed surprise at the death rate among teaching staff being similar to the community outside, despite the infection rate being triple.
Turns out there are two reasons for this figure.
One is that on the whole teachers are younger than the population at large (something to do with 40% of staff leaving the profession within five years of qualifying).
The other is that the government deliberately excluded all staff over the age of 64, which meant they excluded half of all deaths among school staff, but compared the rate to the population as a whole.
Which is extraordinary. Not only is that blatantly criminal - even by the dreadful standards set by Williamson and Gibb - but were they really so dumb as to think nobody would notice?
I can only hope that the judge gives them all life sentences.
I’d rather have Jaws than Gavin Williamson as Secretary of State for Education. At least Jaws was capable of changing his mind.
Or perhaps, more interestingly, we could cast Gavin Williamson as the villain in the next Bond movie. Urbane, slightly weird, dodgy links to a foreign power, indirectly responsible for lots of deaths.
‘Do you know him?’ ‘Not socially. His name’s Gavin Williamson. He kills people.’
It's not just Gavin though. It's the whole culture of weasel. Of presenting a dodgy factoid in the knowledge that it won't stand up for long, but not caring.
True.
If this pandemic shows anything, it’s that the DfE needs to go. Completely and entirely. Not only is it not useful, it’s actively damaging education.
but it's a close run thing - as I'm at a loss as to how increasing holiday pay for workers in care homes is going to reduce unemployment - it's not like saving £239 is going to result in a care home employing another full time worker.
You may remember that yesterday I expressed surprise at the death rate among teaching staff being similar to the community outside, despite the infection rate being triple.
Turns out there are two reasons for this figure.
One is that on the whole teachers are younger than the population at large (something to do with 40% of staff leaving the profession within five years of qualifying).
The other is that the government deliberately excluded all staff over the age of 64, which meant they excluded half of all deaths among school staff, but compared the rate to the population as a whole.
Which is extraordinary. Not only is that blatantly criminal - even by the dreadful standards set by Williamson and Gibb - but were they really so dumb as to think nobody would notice?
I can only hope that the judge gives them all life sentences.
I’d rather have Jaws than Gavin Williamson as Secretary of State for Education. At least Jaws was capable of changing his mind.
Or perhaps, more interestingly, we could cast Gavin Williamson as the villain in the next Bond movie. Urbane, slightly weird, dodgy links to a foreign power, indirectly responsible for lots of deaths.
‘Do you know him?’ ‘Not socially. His name’s Gavin Williamson. He kills people.’
It's not just Gavin though. It's the whole culture of weasel. Of presenting a dodgy factoid in the knowledge that it won't stand up for long, but not caring.
True.
If this pandemic shows anything, it’s that the DfE needs to go. Completely and entirely. Not only is it not useful, it’s actively damaging education.
To come back on topic, I didn't think the 52-48 (cough) pro-independence Scottish poll in the Sunday Times was exactly convincing.
If the EU carry on like they are, and the UK continues to make a success of its vaccine rollout and Brexit life, then we might go through all the palaver of setting up indyref2 only to find the Scots don't want independence. Again.
There are advantages to Brexit. They may come increasingly into focus.
Fantasy thinking, UK have been putting the boot in for a few years now , too late to try and play nice now.
Also back on topic (yes, I know...), the trump card the SNP can play is simple. A manifesto which explicitly states that a vote for an SNP government is a vote for a new referendum on independence.
The Unionist parties can then campaign against the SNP on their various versions on support for the Union. Should the SNP secure a working majority then the will of the people is clear.
For me this is an absolute bear trap that the Tories are walking into. Supposedly someone has handed Boris paperwork proposing a "kick it into the long grass" commission on the constitution. As he is also trying to reshape constituencies in his favour and abolish an entire tier of local government to centralise even more power, it is obvious what the agenda is.
Should the commission be rejected in favour of a referendum then we're back down to colonialism. 'Yes you Scotch people with your kilts and your deep fried mars bars, you can vote if you want to, but unfortunately if you're going to vote wrong we will ignore your clear wishes and do the opposite because we matter and you don't.'
An advisory referendum and the "will of the people" became the word of God. The manifesto pledge to Get Brexit Done a literal instruction. Its politically impossible for this government to credibly try to claim the opposite is true in Scotland. They'll try because they aren't politically credible, but it won't stick.
Their only hope is to muster a Scottish election campaign where Labour, the Tories and the LibDems beat the SNP. Yeah, I know...
Even if between Labour, Tories and the LibDems they get more than 50% of the vote the SNP are going to get a majority of the seats.
Boris is going to have to resign quick if Scottish Independence isn't deemed to be his fault.
A plurality.
They may get a majority, but it isn’t easy to do. One of the great shocks of 2011 was that they managed it when the system had been gerrymandered designed to ensure nobody could.
They did in 2011 and they were close in 2016. This time round I don't think it's even going to be close
Sturgeon is regarded as having a far better Covid than Boris and co have (remember she has always been x hours ahead in doing things) which does the SNP no harm.
And the Scottish Greens will pick up enough seats to ensure the other parties aren't even close.
I really do think the Independence parties will get between 70 and 80 seats (and probably towards the higher end of that range).
I am politically fluid these days and reasonably comfortable with it. I'll get to vote in my first Scottish elections in May and it will take a lot to stop me voting SNP. Despite still being a LibDem member. And from discussions I think my wife, brother and sister-in-law will all vote the same. All English migrants.
Mr. Jonathan, I'm not talking about rhetoric. I'm talking about the credible threat of preventing the export of life-saving medicine because the EU failed its response to the pandemic.
If the roles were reversed - would you be keen to see the UK export vaccine it desperately needed?
I'm conflicted on this. I wish there was enough to go around for everyone. Clearly the UK has paid for X and so should get X. But there is surely a point at which that breaks down...
If the UK was vaccinating 30y/olds like myself while Italy had shortages for those in the 65+ category... would it really be so unreasonable for them to refuse to export?
If the companies were obliged to do so then yes, of course. If those doses were bought and paid for and owned by other countries then yes of course.
You don't solve your own problems by stealing other people's property.
I seem to remember various countries doing exactly that when PPE was running out. The US definitely redirected 3M production and I'm sure some parts of Europe did the same.
People will be out looking for large fridges. Can bet your shirt that he will not meet one real person , will be taken indoors under a blanket to meet some toadies and leave by back door under a blanket. Will be little data on where he will be to avoid much booing and being told to F Off.
I’d been under the impression (mainly from SCons it has to be said) that now is not the time for constitutional wrangling and the divisive campaigning of an Indy ref. I’m relieved we can now consign that to the hypocritical guff bin, if the Yoons haven’t already overfilled it.
EU cannot be remotely serious about vaccine export bans, can they?
Talking about supply is one thing, but the day they actually start blocking them is the day they start to seriously upset a number of countries and companies.
I voted to leave the EU because they’re an inward-looking and protectionist organisation that falsely preaches free trade and global co-operation - here’s a great example of that in action.
The whole business is not pleasant, most wealthy countries have bought up far more vaccines than perhaps they need (the UK has 350 on order).... meanwhile the world's poorest/most marginalised have been well and truly shafted on this one, not humanity's greatest hour.
The UK needs 100m or so vaccines to do everyone, they over-ordered because they didn’t know which 100m would be good or be first to arrive.
They’ve already pledged to donate the rest to poor countries (such as France), as it’s in everyone’s interest to have everyone in the world vaccinated as quickly as possible - so we can irradiate this damn virus for good.
Yes, we are at the initial argy-bargey stage now as Western nations compete to be able to open up their own economies, but the worldwide vaccination programme to come will be humanity’s greatest hour.
I see humanity's greatest hour still leaves room for petty nationalistic digs. Never doubted it for a minute
Surely that’s good news, TUD? Otherwise you would have to give up posting.
Apologies it wasn’t just the right wing press failing to report what the EU actually said but the Guardian is also guilty of a headline which doesn’t actually match the body of the report . Can someone find me the statement where the EU said they will ban exports to the UK . All I can find is the EU want to know where Pfizer is exporting and how many doses that is . What would the UK public think if for example AstraZeneca which has a factory in the UK failed to fulfill its contract with the government but at the same time was fulfilling orders with the EU . Would you expect the government to shrug its shoulders and let the matter rest .
I’d expect them to make a lot of outraged noise and totally cock up the response.
Because that is what empty populists like Johnson do.
But are we really saying that the EU have demonstrated they are as nasty, stupid and incompetent as Boris Johnson’s government? Because it doesn’t sound like a ringing endorsement of either their strategy or their ability.
They are politicians.
I have noticed that many, many politicians, seem to act in the following way
- encounter a problematic reality - make statements that said situation is intolerable - take legal actions - are puzzled when reality still doesn't go their way
For the pinnacle of this kind of comedy, I direct you to the Senate Launch System* (SLS) in the US.
To cut a long story short.... after decades of failed attempts at building a replacement for the Space Shuttle, the program collapsed. Again. So the Senate Space Committee sat down and wrote a design for the rocket.
Yes, politicians literally designing a rocket. To be made of old shuttle bits, so that all their favourite contractors get some sweet, sweet pork.
They are surprised that this endeavour is working out just as badly as all the other attempts.
Mr. Jonathan, I'm not talking about rhetoric. I'm talking about the credible threat of preventing the export of life-saving medicine because the EU failed its response to the pandemic.
If the roles were reversed - would you be keen to see the UK export vaccine it desperately needed?
I'm conflicted on this. I wish there was enough to go around for everyone. Clearly the UK has paid for X and so should get X. But there is surely a point at which that breaks down...
If the UK was vaccinating 30y/olds like myself while Italy had shortages for those in the 65+ category... would it really be so unreasonable for them to refuse to export?
If the companies were obliged to do so then yes, of course. If those doses were bought and paid for and owned by other countries then yes of course.
You don't solve your own problems by stealing other people's property.
I seem to remember various countries doing exactly that when PPE was running out. The US definitely redirected 3M production and I'm sure some parts of Europe did the same.
Macron pinched the NHS’ huge PPE order placed in January....
ONS data out this morning says “economically inactive” adults are 20.7% of the population and unemployment is at 5%.
It’s hard to know which to be worried about most, the bug or the economic catastrophe.
Worry about the former until, say, late summer, when all will have vaccines. Then start to seriously panic about the latter, which will be dire. Young people have never seen inflation.
This threader is sophistry and pish in equal measure.
The matter will end, maybe after years, with the SCOTUK, which will surely rule in favour of Westminster having reserved powers to allow a binding referendum,
Sturgeon will then have the dilemma of calling a wildcat "advisory" vote (and risking a definite boycott and a Catalan outcome, where support for Catindy has now fallen), or biding her time, and waiting for a parliament more amenable in 2024.
Will this attitude from London provoke increased support for indy? Yes, quite possibly. But then, if London looks likely to lose a vote in 2022-2023, then it has nothing to lose and everything to gain by holding firm, and hoping for a change of mood.
What the heck is a "binding" referendum on a subject like this?
The EU Referendum wasn't "binding".
The question before SCOTUK will surely be whether they can lawfully hold a referendum - since under previous SCOTUK ruling all referenda are advisory, that element is moot.
If the SCOTUK rules in favour of the Scottish Parliament that they can legally hold a referendum then that is a game changer. It would be better not to go to Court than to lose that Court case because then the SCOTUK has essentially ruled it is a legal vote, not a wildcat one.
It seems odd to me that a fervent supporter of Brexit wants to take away an opportunity for the people of Scotland to experience the outplaying of some of its benefits, as opposed to just the immediate-term fissures.
Nats desperately want Indyref 2 now, I think because they lack confidence in the accuracy of their dire predictions, and they calculate that there will never be an angrier time than now, or a better opponent than Boris. I am less certain of why you want it now so desperately, you who believes that Brexit is going to be a success. I think five or six years is plenty of time to gage that. Within the context of a 300 year Union, it doesn't seem much? Your haste seems not to be about giving the Scottish people choice, but booting them out the door as quickly as possible. Why? Do you just plain not like them?
I believe in independence. Its why I voted Leave, its why I want the Scots to vote Yes. Independence works. Taking responsibility for yourself works. It is why I am a Conservative.
I don't believe in communitarianism. If the Scots want to be independent I say goodbye and good luck to them. I think it is for the best to be honest.
But either way more importantly than any of that, I believe in democracy. If they vote for it, they should get it.
What if I want to be "independent"? Or Cornwall? Or Shropshire? Hackney? A dog in the Wirral? The East Riding of old Yorkshire?
It might be appealing, in the moment. But at some point a country has to say: No, we are a country, we are unified, we have various traditions and cultures, but the centre must hold. And stay united. Otherwise we will hang apart, if we do not hang together.
Britain has arguably done a worse job of this than any other European country. We are probably the most successful big European nation over the last 300 years, judged in terms of average wealth over time, and being peaceful, safe, democratic and not-being-conquered. The fact we have allowed secessionist movements to develop, despite this success, is a total failure of the British elite, which lacks confidence in its own amazing brand.
Right now, too many posh Brits want the Scots to secede, just to punish the country for voting Leave (I accept your motivations are different)
You havering idiot , you are not a country, just some deluded spotty oick stuck in his bedroom with a keyboard and enough brain cells to be dangerous.
Oh come on, Malc. In all respects, Leon is the hardest man ever. Flint dildos and all that.
Think there may have been an accident with one. Instead of scratching his back with it he has stuck it in his brain.
EU cannot be remotely serious about vaccine export bans, can they?
Talking about supply is one thing, but the day they actually start blocking them is the day they start to seriously upset a number of countries and companies.
I voted to leave the EU because they’re an inward-looking and protectionist organisation that falsely preaches free trade and global co-operation - here’s a great example of that in action.
Yep.
The behaviour of the EU these past few weeks has made me, a Remainer, considerably less pro-EU. If there were another referendum held today I would possibly vote Brexit based on their appalling vaccine response.
They're lashing out because they have right-royally screwed up. And the idea that the EU has to buy in all the vaccine supplies on behalf of its member nations is horrendous.
It's everything that is the stinking bureaucratic putrid heap of dung that embodies the over-centralised EU monolith.
'me, a Remainer'
'the stinking bureaucratic putrid heap of dung that embodies the over-centralised EU monolith'
Golly, the scales have pinged off your eyes at some rate. Sorry for your loss.
No I was always only a narrow remainer and I weighed the pros and cons carefully. Something in my mind like a 52-48 split.
It's one of the failings of analysts that they assume Brexiteers and Remainers were all diehards. Many of us were genuinely torn.
In my view the EU has some real pros. It also has some serious cons. Every so often the EU does something really stupid to bring those cons to the fore. This is one such occasion.
I was very similar but ironically I always thought a European Health Service would be a great levelling idea - much better than silly Common Agricultural Policies and some of the other crap. However, the vaccine experience has shown how wrong I was sadly.
An EHS, or the threat of one, would have made the Brexit referendum 65-35 rather than 52-48. If the EU were to adopt a common model it wouldn’t be the NHS they would look at but Germany or France.
I would have been quite keen on it TBH, but it would have been impossible to sell to the UK public.
Yes - I though the referendum would end in a very narrow win for Remain. But that in a subsequent referendum a decade or 2 down the line we would be out, over the issue of a EHS.
If even Haley is saying Trump should not be convicted very unlikely enough GOP Senators will vote for it to get it to the 2/3 required and McConnell is clearly just using up time for the first month or two of Biden's term to delay his passing key legislation through Congress.
Can't be long until Oxfam release a report about how snowmen are one of the clearest examples of the man white patriarchy driving the evil capitalist system.....
Can't be long until Oxfam release a report about how snowmen are one of the clearest examples of the man white patriarchy driving the evil capitalist system.....
You may remember that yesterday I expressed surprise at the death rate among teaching staff being similar to the community outside, despite the infection rate being triple.
Turns out there are two reasons for this figure.
One is that on the whole teachers are younger than the population at large (something to do with 40% of staff leaving the profession within five years of qualifying).
The other is that the government deliberately excluded all staff over the age of 64, which meant they excluded half of all deaths among school staff, but compared the rate to the population as a whole.
Which is extraordinary. Not only is that blatantly criminal - even by the dreadful standards set by Williamson and Gibb - but were they really so dumb as to think nobody would notice?
I can only hope that the judge gives them all life sentences.
I’d rather have Jaws than Gavin Williamson as Secretary of State for Education. At least Jaws was capable of changing his mind.
Or perhaps, more interestingly, we could cast Gavin Williamson as the villain in the next Bond movie. Urbane, slightly weird, dodgy links to a foreign power, indirectly responsible for lots of deaths.
‘Do you know him?’ ‘Not socially. His name’s Gavin Williamson. He kills people.’
It's not just Gavin though. It's the whole culture of weasel. Of presenting a dodgy factoid in the knowledge that it won't stand up for long, but not caring.
True.
If this pandemic shows anything, it’s that the DfE needs to go. Completely and entirely. Not only is it not useful, it’s actively damaging education.
Can't be long until Oxfam release a report about how snowmen are one of the clearest examples of the man white patriarchy driving the evil capitalist system.....
More likely to be the National Trust.....
Oh I presume they had already banned them like they did with Easter bunny.
Very interesting article, as always. One of the many drawbacks of the pandemic is that the politics of it are both vague and dull, as so few really clear principles are at stake, and the question of who is up and who is down seems trivial - which makes long stretches of discussion even here pretty turgid.
Scotland is such a refreshing change, and could be the new Brexit for both these things. Power and principle are both truly in play. So great. Some top quality horses are running - Sturgeon, Johnson, Brown, HM the Queen, SKS, Ruth Davidson though the field gets down to carthorses with incredible rapidity (though the newly engaged Kate Forbes is one to watch)
I agree with Mr Meeks this far: If the Scottish Parliament acts to allow a referendum the act would not be law.
Because of that what follows is entirely unpredictable. Firstly I am less sure than Mr Meeks that the Scottish government acting on that non effective law would not be successfully challenged. After which the number of forks in the road is multitudinous, and predictions are like the form guide for the Grand National in Foinavon year.
Outside chance: Boris will take the lead and spring a referendum at a time of his choosing if an opening arrives. For neutral watchers (I live on the English side fairly near the Scottish border and am not neutral at all) a second referendum not at the time of SNP's choosing would be great fun.
Apologies it wasn’t just the right wing press failing to report what the EU actually said but the Guardian is also guilty of a headline which doesn’t actually match the body of the report . Can someone find me the statement where the EU said they will ban exports to the UK . All I can find is the EU want to know where Pfizer is exporting and how many doses that is . What would the UK public think if for example AstraZeneca which has a factory in the UK failed to fulfill its contract with the government but at the same time was fulfilling orders with the EU . Would you expect the government to shrug its shoulders and let the matter rest .
I’d expect them to make a lot of outraged noise and totally cock up the response.
Because that is what empty populists like Johnson do.
But are we really saying that the EU have demonstrated they are as nasty, stupid and incompetent as Boris Johnson’s government? Because it doesn’t sound like a ringing endorsement of either their strategy or their ability.
They are politicians.
I have noticed that many, many politicians, seem to act in the following way
- encounter a problematic reality - make statements that said situation is intolerable - take legal actions - are puzzled when reality still doesn't go their way
For the pinnacle of this kind of comedy, I direct you to the Senate Launch System* (SLS) in the US.
To cut a long story short.... after decades of failed attempts at building a replacement for the Space Shuttle, the program collapsed. Again. So the Senate Space Committee sat down and wrote a design for the rocket.
Yes, politicians literally designing a rocket. To be made of old shuttle bits, so that all their favourite contractors get some sweet, sweet pork.
They are surprised that this endeavour is working out just as badly as all the other attempts.
*Actually Space Launch System, but the name fits.
Meanwhile SpaceX are launching three rockets a week, which then can land back again on Earth, are sending astronauts to the ISS, and testing the next generation of rocket which could go to Mars - all from scratch, in little over a decade, and for an order of magnitude lower cost than the Senate Launch System which still can’t light its candles for more than a minute.
Haley is on the moderate wing of the current GOP. manoeuvres for the 2024 nomination and posing as a defender of Trump in the hope he will be convicted and his supporters think favourably of her as a possible replacement.
FTFY
Although it is disappointing Haley is so anxious to pander to the Trumpite loons, it has to be said she would be a much better president than many alternatives in both parties.
Many thanks to Alastair for this header - really interesting and has convinced me that SIndy2 is on.
One strategy he doesn't cover is what happens if a boycott happens from the 'No' side. This would undermine the legitimacy of the referendum (I believe a similar tactic was tried with Puerto Rican statehood). The SNP would be hard pushed to get 50%+1 of the electorate voting yes I'd imagine.
A fair way to handle the vaccination problem would be to ensure the elderly in all countries get to go first. I wonder whether we will see a move amongst young people to refuse the vaccine until the more vulnerable elsewhere in the world have been covered.
There would be a boycott from the No side, that is certainly the Scottish Conservative position, much as pro Spain Unionists boycotted the unconstitutional 2017 Catalan independence referendum
ONS data out this morning says “economically inactive” adults are 20.7% of the population and unemployment is at 5%.
It’s hard to know which to be worried about most, the bug or the economic catastrophe.
You think that a 1.2% increase in unemployment is an economic catastrophe? Employment is still at a very high level, a couple of years ago the current level would have been a record. Of course it is possible that there will be more job losses when furlough comes to an end but personally I am genuinely surprised how resilient our employment market has been in the face of the pandemic and a significant loss of GDP.
Thank god the UK government have purchased vaccines from a range of suppliers and invested in domestic production.
This is genuinely the biggest opportunity for the UK to pitch to large multinationals as a stable country that isn't going to interfere in their business. Kwasi Kwarteng needs to get on the phone to all major pharma compaby CEOs today and remind them of that.
Supplies of vaccines are "tight" but the UK is confident it will receive enough doses to meet its targets, the vaccine minister has said.
BBC News - Covid-19: Vaccine minister 'confident' of supplies
"Supplies are tight, they continue to be, these are new manufacturing processes," Mr Zahawi added. "It's lumpy and bumpy, it gets better and stabilises and improves going forward."
That's sounds like AZN production in the UK isn't going as quickly as one would hope, but no Cartman wants a new ipad type behaviour from our government.
A bit of anecdata from the front: A few of my missus's colleagues, who are NHS scientists and normally work in an office environment, volunteered last weekend to help out with what they thought would be vaccine administrative assistance. Much to their shock and surprise, they ended up in ICU, taking bloods and turning patients after a couple of hours of training! Apparently, the situation there is desperate, with each nurse caring for many more patients than is safe, assisted by people like my missus's colleagues who barely have any idea what they are doing. They likened it to a war zone.
A bit of anecdata from the front: A few of my missus's colleagues, who are NHS scientists and normally work in an office environment, volunteered last weekend to help out with what they thought would be vaccine administrative assistance. Much to their shock and surprise, they ended up in ICU, taking bloods and turning patients after a couple of hours of training! Apparently, the situation there is desperate, with each nurse caring for many more patients than is safe, assisted by people like my missus's colleagues who barely have any idea what they are doing. They likened it to a war zone.
Looks like Trump is getting off again. So disappointing. Guy could shoot someone in the middle of 5th Avenue and they'd acquit him. Boo to the senate.
We'll see.
The GOP will come to regret this. Big time.
He will be back if he is not barred from office. No one with his mental case ego would do anything else.
Letting Trump off the hook and then watching all the state, civil, and possibly new federal cases against him come home to roost is not going to be good look for the GOP. They ought to stick the boot in now, and get some credit, rather than ending up as the only remaining defender of the crook.
Supplies of vaccines are "tight" but the UK is confident it will receive enough doses to meet its targets, the vaccine minister has said.
BBC News - Covid-19: Vaccine minister 'confident' of supplies
"Supplies are tight, they continue to be, these are new manufacturing processes," Mr Zahawi added. "It's lumpy and bumpy, it gets better and stabilises and improves going forward."
That's sounds like AZN production in the UK isn't going as quickly as one would hope, but no Cartman wants a new ipad type behaviour from our government.
Also back on topic (yes, I know...), the trump card the SNP can play is simple. A manifesto which explicitly states that a vote for an SNP government is a vote for a new referendum on independence.
The Unionist parties can then campaign against the SNP on their various versions on support for the Union. Should the SNP secure a working majority then the will of the people is clear.
For me this is an absolute bear trap that the Tories are walking into. Supposedly someone has handed Boris paperwork proposing a "kick it into the long grass" commission on the constitution. As he is also trying to reshape constituencies in his favour and abolish an entire tier of local government to centralise even more power, it is obvious what the agenda is.
Should the commission be rejected in favour of a referendum then we're back down to colonialism. 'Yes you Scotch people with your kilts and your deep fried mars bars, you can vote if you want to, but unfortunately if you're going to vote wrong we will ignore your clear wishes and do the opposite because we matter and you don't.'
An advisory referendum and the "will of the people" became the word of God. The manifesto pledge to Get Brexit Done a literal instruction. Its politically impossible for this government to credibly try to claim the opposite is true in Scotland. They'll try because they aren't politically credible, but it won't stick.
Their only hope is to muster a Scottish election campaign where Labour, the Tories and the LibDems beat the SNP. Yeah, I know...
Even if between Labour, Tories and the LibDems they get more than 50% of the vote the SNP are going to get a majority of the seats.
Boris is going to have to resign quick if Scottish Independence isn't deemed to be his fault.
A plurality.
They may get a majority, but it isn’t easy to do. One of the great shocks of 2011 was that they managed it when the system had been gerrymandered designed to ensure nobody could.
They did in 2011 and they were close in 2016. This time round I don't think it's even going to be close
Sturgeon is regarded as having a far better Covid than Boris and co have (remember she has always been x hours ahead in doing things) which does the SNP no harm.
And the Scottish Greens will pick up enough seats to ensure the other parties aren't even close.
I really do think the Independence parties will get between 70 and 80 seats (and probably towards the higher end of that range).
I am politically fluid these days and reasonably comfortable with it. I'll get to vote in my first Scottish elections in May and it will take a lot to stop me voting SNP. Despite still being a LibDem member. And from discussions I think my wife, brother and sister-in-law will all vote the same. All English migrants.
Least surprising news ever from a leftwing Tory hater such as you.
Davey however is firmly opposed to indyref2 anytime soon
A bit of anecdata from the front: A few of my missus's colleagues, who are NHS scientists and normally work in an office environment, volunteered last weekend to help out with what they thought would be vaccine administrative assistance. Much to their shock and surprise, they ended up in ICU, taking bloods and turning patients after a couple of hours of training! Apparently, the situation there is desperate, with each nurse caring for many more patients than is safe, assisted by people like my missus's colleagues who barely have any idea what they are doing. They likened it to a war zone.
Allegedly Shagger will announce some kind of constitutional commission. If I thought this (a) would be a genuine attempt at reform and (b) it would actually recommend the remaking of this country to be at least fit for the 21st century and (c) that such recommendations would be implemented, I would back it.
In reality, its *this* government proposing it. A government who tried to go back on its own key manifesto pledge. With a PM and cabinet comprised of sacked liars, demonstrable fools and Theresa "I didn't say that" Coffey. Someone of the stature of Blair or Thatcher proposing it? Perhaps, but neither did.
So its going to come down a battle of wills. If the electorate return an SNP government on a manifesto of holding an independence referendum, then either Westminster says "we don't care what you think" and thus guarantees independence the minute they are removed from power, or as @Philip_Thompson rightly suggests, tackles it head on.
Ironically many of the factual reasons why Sindy is a bad idea can be demonstrated by the real world impacts of Brexit. As we know, real world practicalities aren't why people vote, and the "that could be Bad" arguments can be batted aside as the people saying that were saying the opposite with regards to Brexit.
Philip Thompson is wrong.
In 2017 the Spanish conservative government denied the Catalan nationalist majority government even one independence referendum, 4 years later Catalonia is still part of Spain and support for independence there is falling
Looks like Trump is getting off again. So disappointing. Guy could shoot someone in the middle of 5th Avenue and they'd acquit him. Boo to the senate.
We'll see.
The GOP will come to regret this. Big time.
He will be back if he is not barred from office. No one with his mental case ego would do anything else.
He will definitely run in 2024 if he is not impeached and he'd probably have a decent chance of winning no matter if he's up against what's left of Biden or Kamala.
I agree with your sentiment, though. And it is massively in the economic interests of rich counties to ensure provision of vaccines to poorer ones, even if they were to ignore humanitarian considerations. An early end to the global pandemic is in all our interests. The UK has actually done reasonably well on this score, being an early proponent and funder of the COVAX effort.
If there is a problem, it is that rich countries haven’t spent enough on vaccine production, and have been insufficiently generous.
I agree with your main point. That said, I'd be glad to hear we were early proponents of COVAX, but I thought we came on board at the last moment, after 76 other first world countries? We can reasonably say that we were massively distracted (COVID and Brexit) until we did it, but we shouldn't claim to be early adopters.
I am far from an exceptionalist on this sort of stuff (and I think we ought still to commit more funding), but it's one area where I can't seriously criticise our government.
Allegedly Shagger will announce some kind of constitutional commission. If I thought this (a) would be a genuine attempt at reform and (b) it would actually recommend the remaking of this country to be at least fit for the 21st century and (c) that such recommendations would be implemented, I would back it.
In reality, its *this* government proposing it. A government who tried to go back on its own key manifesto pledge. With a PM and cabinet comprised of sacked liars, demonstrable fools and Theresa "I didn't say that" Coffey. Someone of the stature of Blair or Thatcher proposing it? Perhaps, but neither did.
So its going to come down a battle of wills. If the electorate return an SNP government on a manifesto of holding an independence referendum, then either Westminster says "we don't care what you think" and thus guarantees independence the minute they are removed from power, or as @Philip_Thompson rightly suggests, tackles it head on.
Ironically many of the factual reasons why Sindy is a bad idea can be demonstrated by the real world impacts of Brexit. As we know, real world practicalities aren't why people vote, and the "that could be Bad" arguments can be batted aside as the people saying that were saying the opposite with regards to Brexit.
Philip Thompson is wrong.
In 2017 the Spanish conservative government denied the Catalan nationalist majority government even one independence referendum, 4 years later Catalonia is still part of Spain and support for independence there is falling
Is your ambition to get Scotland to vote to stay in the UK because they want to stay - or to beat them into submission with violence?
A bit of anecdata from the front: A few of my missus's colleagues, who are NHS scientists and normally work in an office environment, volunteered last weekend to help out with what they thought would be vaccine administrative assistance. Much to their shock and surprise, they ended up in ICU, taking bloods and turning patients after a couple of hours of training! Apparently, the situation there is desperate, with each nurse caring for many more patients than is safe, assisted by people like my missus's colleagues who barely have any idea what they are doing. They likened it to a war zone.
A bit of anecdata from the front: A few of my missus's colleagues, who are NHS scientists and normally work in an office environment, volunteered last weekend to help out with what they thought would be vaccine administrative assistance. Much to their shock and surprise, they ended up in ICU, taking bloods and turning patients after a couple of hours of training! Apparently, the situation there is desperate, with each nurse caring for many more patients than is safe, assisted by people like my missus's colleagues who barely have any idea what they are doing. They likened it to a war zone.
Where is "there?"
QE in Birmingham.
That sounds pretty grim.
Serious respect to your wife and her colleagues for not backing out as well when they were told what they would be doing. That’s impressive.
You may remember that yesterday I expressed surprise at the death rate among teaching staff being similar to the community outside, despite the infection rate being triple.
Turns out there are two reasons for this figure.
One is that on the whole teachers are younger than the population at large (something to do with 40% of staff leaving the profession within five years of qualifying).
The other is that the government deliberately excluded all staff over the age of 64, which meant they excluded half of all deaths among school staff, but compared the rate to the population as a whole.
Which is extraordinary. Not only is that blatantly criminal - even by the dreadful standards set by Williamson and Gibb - but were they really so dumb as to think nobody would notice?
I can only hope that the judge gives them all life sentences.
I’d rather have Jaws than Gavin Williamson as Secretary of State for Education. At least Jaws was capable of changing his mind.
Or perhaps, more interestingly, we could cast Gavin Williamson as the villain in the next Bond movie. Urbane, slightly weird, dodgy links to a foreign power, indirectly responsible for lots of deaths.
‘Do you know him?’ ‘Not socially. His name’s Gavin Williamson. He kills people.’
It's not just Gavin though. It's the whole culture of weasel. Of presenting a dodgy factoid in the knowledge that it won't stand up for long, but not caring.
True.
If this pandemic shows anything, it’s that the DfE needs to go. Completely and entirely. Not only is it not useful, it’s actively damaging education.
Interesting - so you are now Toby Young.
Runs......
Stopped clocks and all that.
Yes
My youngest daughter attended a free school primary. Which is lambasted by some, because, using the free-school-meals criteria, it isn't diverse enough.
Apart from the comic aspect trying to say that the students are not diverse - the majority could claim at least 2 passports - this is because the school is very good.
So the local middle class have started sending their children there. Which was supposed to be the point of improving state education.
Comments
Are the more vulnerable in the poor countries in the world better served by a lack of international aid because the young in the rich world are still sheltering in their homes?
Or are they better served by getting billions of doses in aid thanks to the generosity of the rich world who having vaccinated their own are now capable of turning their attention to to eradicating this virus around the globe?
The latter question is more difficult to answer. If we get to the stage of having most of our adult population vaccinated while the EU is still failing dramatically (assuming no vaccination export bans have been inflicted on us) I wouldn't be opposed to sharing vaccination supplies. Not redirecting wholesale, but splitting it.
We should also, if and when able, assist Commonwealth nations with vaccination.
I would have been quite keen on it TBH, but it would have been impossible to sell to the UK public.
Or perhaps, more interestingly, we could cast Gavin Williamson as the villain in the next Bond movie. Urbane, slightly weird, dodgy links to a foreign power, indirectly responsible for lots of deaths.
‘Do you know him?’
‘Not socially. His name’s Gavin Williamson. He kills people.’
Boris is going to have to resign quick if Scottish Independence isn't deemed to be his fault.
So why on earth is the quarantine hotel policy only going to apply to countries with known variants?
This government makes an arse of things time after time. And people die.
ON the topic of the moment - it was inevitable.
I think I mentioned Ian Bank's book Excession previously - a society of god like AI, in a post scarcity society, where there is total equality and infinite wealth... and they encounter a situation where there is a singular, valuable item. Instantly, they revert back to lies, schemes and violence.
It is very easy to suppose that we are all above this.
But consider - last year, in January, the idea of shutting an EU border was unthinkable. Not even Nigel Farage suggested that in his campaign to stop-the-illegal-migrant-hordes that pulling up the drawbridge was an option. Now the variations on close-the-border are solemnly debated on the serious, evening TV opinion programs....
In January, the idea that countries would seize exports for others would have seen crazy. By June a number had done it. And it is still going on in the PPE area - exports of some items are still blocked.
https://twitter.com/GavinLeeBBC/status/1353975945586237440?s=20
Headlines are
"The UK employment rate, in the three months to November 2020, was estimated at 75.2%, 1.1 percentage points lower than a year earlier and 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous quarter.
The UK unemployment rate, in the three months to November 2020, was estimated at 5.0%, 1.2 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous quarter.
In the three months to November 2020, the redundancy rate reached a record high of 14.2 per thousand.
Early estimates for December 2020 indicate that the number of payrolled employees fell by 2.7% compared with December 2019, which is a fall of 793,000 employees; since February 2020, 828,000 fewer people were in payrolled employment.
The Claimant Count increased slightly in December 2020, to 2.6 million; this includes both those working with low income or hours and those who are not working.
There were an estimated 578,000 vacancies in the UK in October to December 2020; this is 224,000 fewer than a year ago and 81,000 more than the previous quarter.
Growth in average total pay (including bonuses) among employees for the three months September to November 2020 increased to 3.6%, and growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) also increased to 3.6%."
So a 1.1% fall in employment and a 1.2% increase in unemployment. The average wage situation suggests that the job losses are concentrated at the lower end. This is not good but personally I am amazed that its not a lot worse. May still be being buffered by the furlough scheme of course.
They may get a majority, but it isn’t easy to do. One of the great shocks of 2011 was that they managed it when the system had been
gerrymandereddesigned to ensure nobody could.The EU aren't being complete dicks at all.
Oh sorry - you might prefer I refer to them as "some countries and blocks"
Try and defend/ deflect all you like but this shows the EU at its absolute worst
France may have a better death rate currently, though possibly more by good luck than good management. Their case loads were dramatically higher than the UK's until the Kent mutation arose - had it been a Lyon mutation that arose instead, then given the lack of strain monitoring going on in France and the higher baseload of cases at the time then the situation for France and the entire world who got the early warning from the UK's advanced strain monitoring would have been far worse. Not that I expect you to acknowledge that the UK has got some things right and some things wrong as I would.
But even having said that, even with the Cockney Covid, this story isn't over yet. As of yesterday's stats the UK had done 10.38 vaccinations per 100 people while France have done 1.57 per 100 people. Tragically unless that starts to change fast it is going to take a miracle for France to finish with a death toll below the UK's.
PS since this is the first time I've spoken to you post-Brexit can I say I hope there's been no interruption to your husband's medication which I know you were afraid about as a Brexit risk and you mentioned to me a few times. Hope that hasn't been interrupted.
Because that is what empty populists like Johnson do.
But are we really saying that the EU have demonstrated they are as nasty, stupid and incompetent as Boris Johnson’s government? Because it doesn’t sound like a ringing endorsement of either their strategy or their ability.
You don't solve your own problems by stealing other people's property.
Hence the dilemma between accepting suboptimal data or delaying the use of the vaccine.
Neither option is great.
But I must concede the posh bit, my haggis last night came from Markies!
Sturgeon is regarded as having a far better Covid than Boris and co have (remember she has always been x hours ahead in doing things) which does the SNP no harm.
And the Scottish Greens will pick up enough seats to ensure the other parties aren't even close.
I really do think the Independence parties will get between 70 and 80 seats (and probably towards the higher end of that range).
In reality, its *this* government proposing it. A government who tried to go back on its own key manifesto pledge. With a PM and cabinet comprised of sacked liars, demonstrable fools and Theresa "I didn't say that" Coffey. Someone of the stature of Blair or Thatcher proposing it? Perhaps, but neither did.
So its going to come down a battle of wills. If the electorate return an SNP government on a manifesto of holding an independence referendum, then either Westminster says "we don't care what you think" and thus guarantees independence the minute they are removed from power, or as @Philip_Thompson rightly suggests, tackles it head on.
Ironically many of the factual reasons why Sindy is a bad idea can be demonstrated by the real world impacts of Brexit. As we know, real world practicalities aren't why people vote, and the "that could be Bad" arguments can be batted aside as the people saying that were saying the opposite with regards to Brexit.
Sometimes less IS more.
Because there was no risk, it was a fear you blew up out of all proportion because you were afraid.
If someone has agoraphobia then should the rest of us stay inside?
I thought you might have mellowed now your irrational fears have proven not to be real. Shame its not true, hope things get better for you.
If this pandemic shows anything, it’s that the DfE needs to go. Completely and entirely. Not only is it not useful, it’s actively damaging education.
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1353986211044614144
or
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1353983592926490624
but it's a close run thing - as I'm at a loss as to how increasing holiday pay for workers in care homes is going to reduce unemployment - it's not like saving £239 is going to result in a care home employing another full time worker.
Runs......
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1353757715479359494
I have noticed that many, many politicians, seem to act in the following way
- encounter a problematic reality
- make statements that said situation is intolerable
- take legal actions
- are puzzled when reality still doesn't go their way
For the pinnacle of this kind of comedy, I direct you to the Senate Launch System* (SLS) in the US.
To cut a long story short.... after decades of failed attempts at building a replacement for the Space Shuttle, the program collapsed. Again. So the Senate Space Committee sat down and wrote a design for the rocket.
Yes, politicians literally designing a rocket. To be made of old shuttle bits, so that all their favourite contractors get some sweet, sweet pork.
They are surprised that this endeavour is working out just as badly as all the other attempts.
*Actually Space Launch System, but the name fits.
That's my strategy for what its worth.
--AS
it is always a man. never trans snow person. disgrace. cancel the weather i say.
If even Haley is saying Trump should not be convicted very unlikely enough GOP Senators will vote for it to get it to the 2/3 required and McConnell is clearly just using up time for the first month or two of Biden's term to delay his passing key legislation through Congress.
Scotland is such a refreshing change, and could be the new Brexit for both these things. Power and principle are both truly in play. So great. Some top quality horses are running - Sturgeon, Johnson, Brown, HM the Queen, SKS, Ruth Davidson though the field gets down to carthorses with incredible rapidity (though the newly engaged Kate Forbes is one to watch)
I agree with Mr Meeks this far: If the Scottish Parliament acts to allow a referendum the act would not be law.
Because of that what follows is entirely unpredictable. Firstly I am less sure than Mr Meeks that the Scottish government acting on that non effective law would not be successfully challenged. After which the number of forks in the road is multitudinous, and predictions are like the form guide for the Grand National in Foinavon year.
Outside chance: Boris will take the lead and spring a referendum at a time of his choosing if an opening arrives. For neutral watchers (I live on the English side fairly near the Scottish border and am not neutral at all) a second referendum not at the time of SNP's choosing would be great fun.
Although it is disappointing Haley is so anxious to pander to the Trumpite loons, it has to be said she would be a much better president than many alternatives in both parties.
https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/1353700309500112896?s=20
The GOP will come to regret this. Big time.
He will be back if he is not barred from office. No one with his mental case ego would do anything else.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1353983006017519616
BBC News - Covid-19: Vaccine minister 'confident' of supplies
"Supplies are tight, they continue to be, these are new manufacturing processes," Mr Zahawi added. "It's lumpy and bumpy, it gets better and stabilises and improves going forward."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55808266
That's sounds like AZN production in the UK isn't going as quickly as one would hope, but no Cartman wants a new ipad type behaviour from our government.
Davey however is firmly opposed to indyref2 anytime soon
https://prod.news.stv.tv/politics/scottish-lib-dems-will-oppose-holding-indyref2-at-any-point?top
In 2017 the Spanish conservative government denied the Catalan nationalist majority government even one independence referendum, 4 years later Catalonia is still part of Spain and support for independence there is falling
It failed more spectacularly than an EU vaccine procurement scheme, but I can’t fault their effort.
Roads are like glass at the moment.
And note that we hosted the global vaccine summit back in June last year.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/the-global-vaccine-summit-hosted-by-the-uk-raises-us-88-for-immunisation
I am far from an exceptionalist on this sort of stuff (and I think we ought still to commit more funding), but it's one area where I can't seriously criticise our government.
The UK is not Spain or China.
Serious respect to your wife and her colleagues for not backing out as well when they were told what they would be doing. That’s impressive.
My youngest daughter attended a free school primary. Which is lambasted by some, because, using the free-school-meals criteria, it isn't diverse enough.
Apart from the comic aspect trying to say that the students are not diverse - the majority could claim at least 2 passports - this is because the school is very good.
So the local middle class have started sending their children there. Which was supposed to be the point of improving state education.