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Trump’s desperate attempt to bully the Georgia Secretary of State shows the lengths he’ll go to hang

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  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    Heart of stone and all that.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,444
    kjh said:

    "Danish firm DFDS launch new direct cargo service between Ireland & France to bypass the UK. The first ship today carried over 100 trucks & the service is already over-subscribed. Hauliers say the route is longer but avoids Brexit red-tape they would otherwise experience on the UK route."

    Suppose it will keep the queues down!

    Does it actually benefit us to have thousands of Irish lorries pounding down our roads? I suppose they must spend a small amount of money but it is very arguable they are overall a disbenefit
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    F1: start of the season may be delayed.

    Apparently there's some sort of 'virus' involved.
    https://twitter.com/RacingLines/status/1346052341326352384

    Australia are apparently refusing to budge from a mandatory 14 days’ quarantine, in hotels in Melbourne, for everyone involved in F1. This would mean everyone needing to be in Australia by about 3rd March, for the race on 21st.
  • HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    When was the last time the LDs had a % that low? The 2 seat projection for them is looking a bit optimistic..
  • DavidL said:

    Nothing to worry about in the L household, I'm pleased to say. My wife is completely on top of things.

    "We're going to need a bigger box" (of Ferraro Rocher, natch).

    Mission accomplished. Bring it on.

    I'd not realised until watching French Youtube videos over an otherwise dull Christmas, that rocher is a type of chocolate available from other makers besides Ferrero. Perhaps there is an opportunity there for Scottish haggis farmers now that their main product has been taken over by the "British".
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Scott_xP said:
    Seems sensible from Johnson, for a change.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    Scott_xP said:
    Look at the picture. Boris is in his standard hospital photo-op poise, jacket off, tie tucked in, sleeves rolled up as if he has just delivered a baby by emergency caesarian section in the hospital carpark.
    Better that than conceiving another....no, not going there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,128

    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    When was the last time the LDs had a % that low? The 2 seat projection for them is looking a bit optimistic..
    1990 I think when Thatcher called them 'a dead parrot'

    https://youtu.be/DQ6TgaPJcR0
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    When was the last time the LDs had a % that low? The 2 seat projection for them is looking a bit optimistic..
    But perfect for the tandem.
  • HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    More than half the LibDem vote has gone Tory?

    lol....
    Tories who didn't want no deal, happy to move back to the Tories now there is one perhaps?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,590

    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    More than half the LibDem vote has gone Tory?

    lol....
    More likely the LDs have lost support to the Greens and Labour, and Labour has lost support in Brexit-supporting areas to the Tories.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,804
    edited January 2021

    kjh said:

    "Danish firm DFDS launch new direct cargo service between Ireland & France to bypass the UK. The first ship today carried over 100 trucks & the service is already over-subscribed. Hauliers say the route is longer but avoids Brexit red-tape they would otherwise experience on the UK route."

    Suppose it will keep the queues down!

    Keeps the traffic down on UK roads. No issue with that.
    Well absolutely. I think I made that point, but doesn't it just maybe make you think 'well maybe it has cost and competitive issues for UK companies exporting and UK customers of EU products if Irish hauliers prefer a mega sea journey.
  • DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Look at the picture. Boris is in his standard hospital photo-op poise, jacket off, tie tucked in, sleeves rolled up as if he has just delivered a baby by emergency caesarian section in the hospital carpark.
    Better that than conceiving another....no, not going there.
    'Here's one I made earlier'
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,444
    edited January 2021
    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    Heart of stone and all that.
    A truly bizarre poll. I expected a Brexit Tory bounce, but an LD collapse? Is it soft Tory Remainers who went LD now thinking ‘sod it, it’s done, and I’m really a conservative’?
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    Nigelb said:

    Gaussian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gaussian said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting. The UK's "really bad idea" of delaying the second dose of vaccine is gaining traction in the US:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/03/health/coronavirus-vaccine-doses.html

    So that's Germany and the US previously critical of the policy probably set to introduce it. Good to see them make the same u turn I did, the maths is absolutely undeniable having done it this morning. Single jabs give 30-40% more coverage at 70% efficacy for a single jab, if it's as high as 90% as is being investigated then it really is a no brainer.
    We will genuinely be world leading on this policy innovation for better or worse.

    Pfizer one appears to be 52% efficacy after first dose... so probably pretty debatable for that one whether there is much benefit to single jab approach https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4826

    Eek. I think that's a definite no given the additional mutation chances you give the virus with the partial protection.
    Even assuming a delayed booster 'gives the virus additional mutation chances' (which is not proven), why would that necessarily give the virus greater mutation chances than not having the vaccine at all ?

    Also, the 52%, as I pointed out above, is a somewhat misleading figure for 'efficacy'.
    I'm thinking if the virus gets a partial foothold with a longish fight between the virus and the vaccine-induced immune response, that provides a greater chance for mutations that evade the vaccine than if it was killed off with 95% reliability.

    Thanks for pointing out that the 52% shouldn't be taken at face value.
    But my question was in what way is that different or worse than a longish fight between the virus and a naive (unvaccinated) immune response ?
    The difference would be the selection pressure to evade the vaccine response, whereas naive mutations may still be stopped by the vaccine. (Or not, as feared with the SA strain.)
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited January 2021
    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20


    Now that's amusing - it looks as if more than half the Lib Dem vote were Remainery Tories anxious about No Deal, which has now been obviated.

    The next few months are going to be hard whatever happens, but perhaps those sunlit uplands aren't quite as distant as they seem today.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    "Danish firm DFDS launch new direct cargo service between Ireland & France to bypass the UK. The first ship today carried over 100 trucks & the service is already over-subscribed. Hauliers say the route is longer but avoids Brexit red-tape they would otherwise experience on the UK route."

    Suppose it will keep the queues down!

    Keeps the traffic down on UK roads. No issue with that.
    Well absolutely. I think I made that point, but doesn't it just maybe make you think 'well maybe it has cost and competitive issues for UK companies exporting and UK customers of EU products if Irish hauliers prefer a mega sea journey.
    Lorries going from Ireland to France bring little other than road damage and pollution to the U.K.

    Also eases any queues at Dover/Calais, but conversely allows the French to block that route without upsetting the Irish too much.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    Interesting long read article.

    Kamala Harris, Mass Incarceration and Me
    Many progressives mistrust her for her past as a prosecutor. As an ex-convict — and also the son of a crime victim — I can tell you it’s not that simple.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/20/magazine/kamala-harris-crime-prison.html
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Sandpit said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    "Danish firm DFDS launch new direct cargo service between Ireland & France to bypass the UK. The first ship today carried over 100 trucks & the service is already over-subscribed. Hauliers say the route is longer but avoids Brexit red-tape they would otherwise experience on the UK route."

    Suppose it will keep the queues down!

    Keeps the traffic down on UK roads. No issue with that.
    Well absolutely. I think I made that point, but doesn't it just maybe make you think 'well maybe it has cost and competitive issues for UK companies exporting and UK customers of EU products if Irish hauliers prefer a mega sea journey.
    Lorries going from Ireland to France bring little other than road damage and pollution to the U.K.

    Also eases any queues at Dover/Calais, but conversely allows the French to block that route without upsetting the Irish too much.
    Do they not pay a tax?
  • kjh said:

    kjh said:

    "Danish firm DFDS launch new direct cargo service between Ireland & France to bypass the UK. The first ship today carried over 100 trucks & the service is already over-subscribed. Hauliers say the route is longer but avoids Brexit red-tape they would otherwise experience on the UK route."

    Suppose it will keep the queues down!

    Keeps the traffic down on UK roads. No issue with that.
    Well absolutely. I think I made that point, but doesn't it just maybe make you think 'well maybe it has cost and competitive issues for UK companies exporting and UK customers of EU products if Irish hauliers prefer a mega sea journey.
    Marginally, so be it. We already have marginal cost issues by using a different currency but the benefits outweigh the costs.

    Plus of course the Irish potentially need to do the paperwork twice, whereas the Brits only need to do it once.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,218

    What frightens me is the power of the state and the unaccountable SAGE committee. A committee that is determined to hold on to the vast unaccountable influence it has, whatever happens with the virus.

    I'm on SAGE, specifically 2 SAGE sub-groups. I write in a personal capacity.

    I too am concerned at the power of the state, the executive, under the current government. Everything else you write is nonsense.

    SAGE is not technically a committee. It's a group (thus the "G") with a floating membership, supported by the Government Office for Science. It exists at the whim of government. (There is additional scientific advice that Government receives through various other channels too.)

    Is SAGE unaccountable? The "A" stands for "Advisory": SAGE only advises, Government makes decisions, and Government remains accountable to the voters through the normal functioning of democracy. The Government listens to SAGE advice: it sometimes follows it, it sometimes doesn't, it always has to do the work of turning advice into actionable policy. (When I talk to SAGE colleagues, one of the main topics of conversation is how much Government ignores what we're saying.) The main form of accountability for SAGE is through the accountability of the Government that calls SAGE and that makes all policy decisions.

    SAGE members are also scientists: our work is open to the usual systems of accountability within science. We all publish on our research separate to what we say in SAGE, and such work goes through the usual peer review processes. SAGE minutes and reports are now made available online pretty quickly. You can go read them all. If we get the science wrong, we can be (and are) criticised. Scientists outside SAGE have opportunities to voice dissenting opinions, and frequently do so. As SAGE members, we have all been warned that we could be called to give evidence at any enquiries about the pandemic and that we should take care to preserve all correspondence etc.

    SAGE membership certainly generates kudos, but it's not a paid position. We've all done umpteen unpaid hours of work for SAGE. All the scientists I know on SAGE wish the pandemic could be made to vanish. If things could go back to normal tomorrow, we would all cheer (and take long holidays). SAGE is not meant to be a permanent thing: it is for emergencies (the "E"). No-one presumes SAGE will continue beyond the life of the pandemic. The Government is already re-configuring how SAGE works precisely because it was never designed to run for as long as it has in this pandemic.

    I am flattered to be on SAGE and hope my abilities as a researcher are of benefit to the country. If there's another pandemic, I would be happy to do service again. I have no illusions that I have any influence beyond my particular scientific expertise around pandemics.
    Best contribution (and avatar) in ages.....
    Stop creeping, Mark. Just cos he's on some committee or other.

    Deep State if you ask me.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,480
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:
    I would have bolstered the cabinet by having Hunt as the caretaker Health Sec (non Covid) and leaving Hancock as the Covid secretary a long time ago. Would have been better to have him in the tent pissing out.
    Except that he’s been a loud opponent of the government since about February last year. He burned his bridges there very quickly, even if his experience would have been useful to have.

    (Notwithstanding that he was SoS Health when the 2016 pandemic preparedness report recommendations got filed in the shredder).
    That argument against may be true, as perhaps is @FrancisUrquhart's argument in the other direction that Hunt would have been more capable as the 'Covid' Health Sec than Hancock, but mine would have been a middle way solution - sensible and politically possible.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599

    Sandpit said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    "Danish firm DFDS launch new direct cargo service between Ireland & France to bypass the UK. The first ship today carried over 100 trucks & the service is already over-subscribed. Hauliers say the route is longer but avoids Brexit red-tape they would otherwise experience on the UK route."

    Suppose it will keep the queues down!

    Keeps the traffic down on UK roads. No issue with that.
    Well absolutely. I think I made that point, but doesn't it just maybe make you think 'well maybe it has cost and competitive issues for UK companies exporting and UK customers of EU products if Irish hauliers prefer a mega sea journey.
    Lorries going from Ireland to France bring little other than road damage and pollution to the U.K.

    Also eases any queues at Dover/Calais, but conversely allows the French to block that route without upsetting the Irish too much.
    Do they not pay a tax?
    All foreign lorries pay a “road usage fee” of something like £12 a day.

    IIRC we tried to make it much higher, to reflect the actual cost of CO2 and road wear a few years ago, but the EU wouldn’t let us.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    That looks voodoo to me. If Labour had lost 5, fair enough. LDs losing 5 looks like nonsense.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,218
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mortimer said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1346059506132914176?s=20

    362. I accept that oppression as a bar to extradition requires a high threshold. I also accept that there is a strong public interest in giving effect to treaty obligations and that this is an important factor to have in mind. However, I am satisfied that, in these harsh conditions, Mr. Assange’s mental health would deteriorate causing him to commit suicide with the “single minded determination” of his autism spectrum disorder.

    363. I find that the mental condition of Mr. Assange is such that it would be oppressive to extradite him to the United States of America.


    Since the District Judge found for the USA on most of the points of law - tricky to see how they can appeal this.

    So, he voluntarily imprisoned himself in a small apartment for seven years, which made him go mad. And now he’s mad, he’s unfit to be deported to stand trial?

    Did I get that right?
    And he's coming out of Belmarsh into Tier 5 lockdown.

    I hope he gets The Vid.
    Does anyone have him in the pool?
    No. I made a trophy out of a broken BMW piston before I broke my wrist and it is sat on my desk awaiting a lucky winner.
    Amazing that is not settled yet. We were rubbish.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,128
    edited January 2021
    Leon said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    Heart of stone and all that.
    A truly bizarre poll. I expected a Brexit Tory bounce, but an LD collapse? Is it soft Tory Remainers who went LD now thinking ‘sod it, it’s done, and I’m really a conservative’?
    I think so, the seats the LDs gained from the Tories at the last election like St Albans and Richmond Park are full of rich Remainers who normally vote Tory but were terrified Boris would go for No Deal, now Boris has got a Brexit Deal they are returning home and back to the Tories.

    With social democratic voters who disliked Corbyn now voting for Starmer Labour who are the LDs left with but diehard Remainers stuck like Japanese soldiers in the jungle still fighting a war that has now ended while the rest of us move on.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Jeremy Hunt will be pleased to get the full support of.....er.......Sadiq Khan in his appeal for a full lockdown.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,480
    OMG I want it! :lol:
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    Heart of stone and all that.
    A truly bizarre poll. I expected a Brexit Tory bounce, but an LD collapse? Is it soft Tory Remainers who went LD now thinking ‘sod it, it’s done, and I’m really a conservative’?
    I think so, the seats the LDs gained from the Tories at the last election like St Albans and Richmond Park are full of rich Remainers who normally vote Tory but were terrified Boris would go for No Deal, now Boris has got a Brexit Deal they are returning home
    No they are not
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    That looks voodoo to me. If Labour had lost 5, fair enough. LDs losing 5 looks like nonsense.
    Outlier maybe, voodoo definitely not. DeltaPoll are a BPC registered pollster, they aren't going to be conducting voodoo polls.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited January 2021

    Sandpit said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    "Danish firm DFDS launch new direct cargo service between Ireland & France to bypass the UK. The first ship today carried over 100 trucks & the service is already over-subscribed. Hauliers say the route is longer but avoids Brexit red-tape they would otherwise experience on the UK route."

    Suppose it will keep the queues down!

    Keeps the traffic down on UK roads. No issue with that.
    Well absolutely. I think I made that point, but doesn't it just maybe make you think 'well maybe it has cost and competitive issues for UK companies exporting and UK customers of EU products if Irish hauliers prefer a mega sea journey.
    Lorries going from Ireland to France bring little other than road damage and pollution to the U.K.

    Also eases any queues at Dover/Calais, but conversely allows the French to block that route without upsetting the Irish too much.
    Do they not pay a tax?
    Fuel duty, otherwise no, I think.
    Edit that's bollocks

    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/hgv-road-user-levy

    (But it's suspended Aug 2020-Jul 2021 bc of covid).
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,804
    Sandpit said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    "Danish firm DFDS launch new direct cargo service between Ireland & France to bypass the UK. The first ship today carried over 100 trucks & the service is already over-subscribed. Hauliers say the route is longer but avoids Brexit red-tape they would otherwise experience on the UK route."

    Suppose it will keep the queues down!

    Keeps the traffic down on UK roads. No issue with that.
    Well absolutely. I think I made that point, but doesn't it just maybe make you think 'well maybe it has cost and competitive issues for UK companies exporting and UK customers of EU products if Irish hauliers prefer a mega sea journey.
    Lorries going from Ireland to France bring little other than road damage and pollution to the U.K.

    Also eases any queues at Dover/Calais, but conversely allows the French to block that route without upsetting the Irish too much.
    Agree Sandpit, but wasn't the point I was making. See response to MMark. Good point re blocking route without upsetting the Irish. The French do have quite a record on blocking roads, ports etc in disputes.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    That looks voodoo to me. If Labour had lost 5, fair enough. LDs losing 5 looks like nonsense.
    Outlier maybe, voodoo definitely not. DeltaPoll are a BPC registered pollster, they aren't going to be conducting voodoo polls.
    Fair point, but you know what I meant.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    A whole thread on why BoZo refuses to do the right thing because he's a dick

    https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1346092567994261508
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,697

    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20


    Now that's amusing - it looks as if more than half the Lib Dem vote were Remainery Tories anxious about No Deal, which has now been obviated.
    That's quite plausible. It also explains why Jo Swinson's bubble burst as soon as Johnson did a deal on the WA.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Scott_xP said:
    LOL Newsweek's got its finger on the pulse with those republican voters. Knows them well.

    And the Repubs really should be taking advice from them on how to win.
  • Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting. The UK's "really bad idea" of delaying the second dose of vaccine is gaining traction in the US:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/03/health/coronavirus-vaccine-doses.html

    So that's Germany and the US previously critical of the policy probably set to introduce it. Good to see them make the same u turn I did, the maths is absolutely undeniable having done it this morning. Single jabs give 30-40% more coverage at 70% efficacy for a single jab, if it's as high as 90% as is being investigated then it really is a no brainer.
    We will genuinely be world leading on this policy innovation for better or worse.

    Pfizer one appears to be 52% efficacy after first dose... so probably pretty debatable for that one whether there is much benefit to single jab approach https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4826

    That 52% is very much a lower bound, given the short gap between onset of immune response to the first shot, and the booster shot at 21 days in the trial - it takes a good couple of weeks for the antibody response fully to rev up, and most of the cases in the vaccine group occurred before 12 days after the initial shot:
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577?query=RP

    I also note they didn't make much of this statistic:
    Among 10 cases of severe Covid-19 with onset after the first dose, 9 occurred in placebo recipients and 1 in a BNT162b2 recipient...

    So I don't think it's all that debatable, really.
    The obsession with % of people who catch a cold type disease after the vaccine rather than the % catching a serious disease is very strange. All I want is to avoid the severe disease, I am going to catch some colds/coronaviruses/flus anyway, whether it happens to be a covid 19 strain or not is of little importance if it is very unlikely to become serious.
    COVID19 is somewhere north of 30x worse than flu.
    Not after a vaccine!!!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    "Danish firm DFDS launch new direct cargo service between Ireland & France to bypass the UK. The first ship today carried over 100 trucks & the service is already over-subscribed. Hauliers say the route is longer but avoids Brexit red-tape they would otherwise experience on the UK route."

    Suppose it will keep the queues down!

    Keeps the traffic down on UK roads. No issue with that.
    Well absolutely. I think I made that point, but doesn't it just maybe make you think 'well maybe it has cost and competitive issues for UK companies exporting and UK customers of EU products if Irish hauliers prefer a mega sea journey.
    Lorries going from Ireland to France bring little other than road damage and pollution to the U.K.

    Also eases any queues at Dover/Calais, but conversely allows the French to block that route without upsetting the Irish too much.
    Do they not pay a tax?
    All foreign lorries pay a “road usage fee” of something like £12 a day.

    IIRC we tried to make it much higher, to reflect the actual cost of CO2 and road wear a few years ago, but the EU wouldn’t let us.
    Yeah the £12 definitely isn't enough for the actual environmental and road damage associated to transiting trucks to Ireland, I'd call this a gain for our roads, environment and air quality if they start shipping directly to Ireland.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,480
    edited January 2021

    The government needs to do a marketing campaign for genuine British Scotch.
    A great deal of Scotch is made with British (non-Scottish) barley, much of it malted in England too, so it is a 'genuinely British' product (some is even made with French barley...).

    I guess this Haggis is the same - perhaps some of the oats, lamb or whatever came from around the UK so they decided to make something of it. Good for them, hope lot's of butcher's apron fans buy it - it's not like there's a shortage of the saltire-swathed Bonnie Prince Charlie variety...
  • Leon said:

    kjh said:

    "Danish firm DFDS launch new direct cargo service between Ireland & France to bypass the UK. The first ship today carried over 100 trucks & the service is already over-subscribed. Hauliers say the route is longer but avoids Brexit red-tape they would otherwise experience on the UK route."

    Suppose it will keep the queues down!

    Does it actually benefit us to have thousands of Irish lorries pounding down our roads? I suppose they must spend a small amount of money but it is very arguable they are overall a disbenefit
    This new direct ferry is slow and expensive. But still seen as the better option than the hassle of dealing with the UK...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,218
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Interesting data which backs up the hypothesis I have been advancing. Punters in these largely red wall swing states think the government is led by someone who will lie to them, will make the rich richer, won't fund the NHS and won't help them or their area level up.

    But they will support him because Brexit. The prize overrules all other considerations - why? Because when you have been sold a catch-all magic wand solution to all your ills you cling onto the illusion even if you know its a lie because thats all you have left.

    The previous thread asked how Labour win these voters back. As long as the political paradigm is based on opinions of Brexit I don't see how they can. Yes, you may be offering to tell them the truth and level up and invest and all the other things they want which they know the government not only aren't doing but lying to them about.

    But Brexit...
    This is why Labour is desperate for the topic of Brexit to go away, while the Tories want to keep it in the news. One question I have is whether bad news stories about Brexit might help Labour in the long run, by gradually chipping away at Red Wall support for Brexit, even if in the short run bringing the topic up helps the Tories. I suspect the answer is yes, but maybe I'm wrong.
    This is a big question. Perhaps the biggest. If - or let's face it when - Brexit disappoints on material matters, will the Buzz that many Red Wall leavers feel about "taking back control" from Brussels fade away? If it does, then this plus the lack of "unpatriotic" Corbyn should see Labour bouncing back up there. But a cautionary note is that these seats have been trending Con for some time.
    Brexit isn't going to disappoint in material matters. It can't. Unless another useless money pit is invented to spew money into (there's Covid, but everywhere has that). Looking for it and hoping that it will is going to result in a lot of angst and disappointment for you - I seriously wouldn't bother.
    The Thin Deal is expected to cost us significant GDP whereas Brexit was sold as a nice little earner. So that's quite a gap to cover up with smoke & mirrors. I agree it's unlikely that millions of Leavers will be crying foul but there might well be something insidious.
    Everything Brexity is going to be totally overshadowed by Covid for the next year - or more. If we escape and the vaccines work there will be a surge of optimism and a GDP bounce back - who cares about Brexit?

    If we slog on and the virus stays the same or worsens then - who cares about Brexit?

    By the time the fog of the pandemic has cleared Brexit will probably seem quite trivial, except to the small hardcore on either side.
    I agree with you short term but not so much thereafter. I think Brexit is going to take a sabbatical - and would have done even without Covid - but will then be back. Not with quite the heat, that is over, but with still some considerable clout as an issue. I also think the "values" defining aspect of it will prove stubborn to treatment, especially since one side, the Cons, don't want to treat it. Quite the opposite.
    It won’t disappear. But it will become a second order issue that occasionally spikes. Like, say, “law and order”.

    The Swiss don’t obsess about their relationship with the EU, it’s not a front page headline, daily. But it does sometimes surge, then it retreats again to the obscure biz pages.
    But the Swiss weren't chopped up into Ponceball Remainers vs Gamey Leavers for the best part of 5 years. I see this values split as having legs.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    That looks voodoo to me. If Labour had lost 5, fair enough. LDs losing 5 looks like nonsense.
    First rule of stats - if something looks interesting there's a good chance it's wrong - so it will be interesting to see if these numbers are true and backed up (in terms of trend) by other pollsters.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Nigelb said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting. The UK's "really bad idea" of delaying the second dose of vaccine is gaining traction in the US:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/03/health/coronavirus-vaccine-doses.html

    So that's Germany and the US previously critical of the policy probably set to introduce it. Good to see them make the same u turn I did, the maths is absolutely undeniable having done it this morning. Single jabs give 30-40% more coverage at 70% efficacy for a single jab, if it's as high as 90% as is being investigated then it really is a no brainer.
    We will genuinely be world leading on this policy innovation for better or worse.

    Pfizer one appears to be 52% efficacy after first dose... so probably pretty debatable for that one whether there is much benefit to single jab approach https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4826

    That 52% is very much a lower bound, given the short gap between onset of immune response to the first shot, and the booster shot at 21 days in the trial - it takes a good couple of weeks for the antibody response fully to rev up, and most of the cases in the vaccine group occurred before 12 days after the initial shot:
    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577?query=RP

    I also note they didn't make much of this statistic:
    Among 10 cases of severe Covid-19 with onset after the first dose, 9 occurred in placebo recipients and 1 in a BNT162b2 recipient...

    So I don't think it's all that debatable, really.
    Thanks - that's encouraging to think of 52% as a lower bound.
    Hopefully the govt will keep an eye on how the single jab strategy is doing in terms of effectiveness in practice - and so can change course if for whatever reason this strategy isn't doing what we think it should.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,668
    edited January 2021
    I can see them sending the entire England team back home and cancelling the tour.

    England in Sri Lanka: Moeen Ali tests positive for Covid-19

    England all-rounder Moeen Ali has tested positive for Covid-19 upon the squad's arrival in Sri Lanka.

    The 33-year-old, who tested negative before departure, will now isolate for 10 days in accordance with the Sri Lanka government's quarantine protocol.

    Fellow all-rounder Chris Woakes has been deemed as a possible close contact, and will observe a period of self-isolation and further testing.

    England's two-Test tour of Sri Lanka starts in Galle on 14 January.

    England had lateral flow tests and a PCR test at Hambantota airport upon arrival, with Moeen's PCR test returning the positive.

    The rest of the touring parting will be retested on Tuesday morning, before being allowed to train for the first time on Wednesday.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/55532526
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    SAGE report (on data just prior to the new variant explosion)... doesn't sit very well with the PM's 'schools are absolutely safe' assertion.

    “…children and young people are more likely to bring the virus into the household than those aged 17+. They are also less likely to catch the virus within the household…
    … 2-16 year olds are more than twice as likely to pass on the virus within their household compared to people aged 17+”

    https://twitter.com/Dr2NisreenAlwan/status/1345661874302578689
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,998
    edited January 2021
    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mortimer said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1346059506132914176?s=20

    362. I accept that oppression as a bar to extradition requires a high threshold. I also accept that there is a strong public interest in giving effect to treaty obligations and that this is an important factor to have in mind. However, I am satisfied that, in these harsh conditions, Mr. Assange’s mental health would deteriorate causing him to commit suicide with the “single minded determination” of his autism spectrum disorder.

    363. I find that the mental condition of Mr. Assange is such that it would be oppressive to extradite him to the United States of America.


    Since the District Judge found for the USA on most of the points of law - tricky to see how they can appeal this.

    So, he voluntarily imprisoned himself in a small apartment for seven years, which made him go mad. And now he’s mad, he’s unfit to be deported to stand trial?

    Did I get that right?
    And he's coming out of Belmarsh into Tier 5 lockdown.

    I hope he gets The Vid.
    Does anyone have him in the pool?
    No. I made a trophy out of a broken BMW piston before I broke my wrist and it is sat on my desk awaiting a lucky winner.
    Amazing that is not settled yet. We were rubbish.
    Maybe we should have another round for the 2nd (3rd?) wave.
    My gutsy, long shot of a 104 year old pick unfortunately died (of old age).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited January 2021
    Scott_xP said:
    If something seems too good to be true it usually is.

    But no doubt itll take weeks to sort out anyway.

    Be interesting if there are legal challenges - whomever they are from is fine, so long as there is something to back them up
  • MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    That looks voodoo to me. If Labour had lost 5, fair enough. LDs losing 5 looks like nonsense.
    Outlier maybe, voodoo definitely not. DeltaPoll are a BPC registered pollster, they aren't going to be conducting voodoo polls.
    Not voodoo, and it would be a shock if there weren't a Deal Bounce, but aren't polls conducted in holidays always a bit screwy?

    (More importantly, I think it's safe to assume that what has unfolded away from Brexit over the last week or so may impact on the polls in a way that's not to the governing party's advantage.)
  • Full lockdown for Scotland confirmed
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,804

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    "Danish firm DFDS launch new direct cargo service between Ireland & France to bypass the UK. The first ship today carried over 100 trucks & the service is already over-subscribed. Hauliers say the route is longer but avoids Brexit red-tape they would otherwise experience on the UK route."

    Suppose it will keep the queues down!

    Keeps the traffic down on UK roads. No issue with that.
    Well absolutely. I think I made that point, but doesn't it just maybe make you think 'well maybe it has cost and competitive issues for UK companies exporting and UK customers of EU products if Irish hauliers prefer a mega sea journey.
    Marginally, so be it. We already have marginal cost issues by using a different currency but the benefits outweigh the costs.

    Plus of course the Irish potentially need to do the paperwork twice, whereas the Brits only need to do it once.
    I agree with all of your reply Philip except one. What are these benefits? I mean actual benefits not abstract ones Iike sovereignty. I can list a whole lot of benefits I have personally lost. I can not think of a single benefit I have gained.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    Heart of stone and all that.
    A truly bizarre poll. I expected a Brexit Tory bounce, but an LD collapse? Is it soft Tory Remainers who went LD now thinking ‘sod it, it’s done, and I’m really a conservative’?
    I think so, the seats the LDs gained from the Tories at the last election like St Albans and Richmond Park are full of rich Remainers who normally vote Tory but were terrified Boris would go for No Deal, now Boris has got a Brexit Deal they are returning home
    No they are not
    Churn? Lib Dems moving to Labour, Labour shifting to Tory?

    Would explain it, but that’s a horror poll for the Oranges.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    Full lockdown for Scotland confirmed

    Boris to follow at 5pm then.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    MaxPB said:

    Full lockdown for Scotland confirmed

    Boris to follow at 5pm then.
    If only.....
  • MaxPB said:

    Full lockdown for Scotland confirmed

    Boris to follow at 5pm then.
    Nope. He's frit.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Leon said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    Heart of stone and all that.
    A truly bizarre poll. I expected a Brexit Tory bounce, but an LD collapse? Is it soft Tory Remainers who went LD now thinking ‘sod it, it’s done, and I’m really a conservative’?
    Almost certainly shifts between parties - I suspect Phil's suggestion of LD to Lab and some Labour to Con in red wall seats might be correct. However, all polls at this time of year are pretty volatile so probably they mean little at all.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,685
    edited January 2021
    Given this:

    https://www.gov.uk/protected-food-drink-names/orkney-scottish-island-cheddar

    ...I can't see how any Nats can complain about 'British Haggis'.

    PS Scottish haggis makers do seem to have missed a trick in not regitering 'Scottish Haggis'. Now's as good a time as any to do it!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    That looks voodoo to me. If Labour had lost 5, fair enough. LDs losing 5 looks like nonsense.
    First rule of stats - if something looks interesting there's a good chance it's wrong - so it will be interesting to see if these numbers are true and backed up (in terms of trend) by other pollsters.
    I am fully expecting a Con six point lead but not at the expense of the LDs who fall to their lowest figure for generations.

    I would imagine most Remainer LDs would be furious at the deal rather than hang their hat on Johnson. Con to Labour switchers less so.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,804
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    "Danish firm DFDS launch new direct cargo service between Ireland & France to bypass the UK. The first ship today carried over 100 trucks & the service is already over-subscribed. Hauliers say the route is longer but avoids Brexit red-tape they would otherwise experience on the UK route."

    Suppose it will keep the queues down!

    Does it actually benefit us to have thousands of Irish lorries pounding down our roads? I suppose they must spend a small amount of money but it is very arguable they are overall a disbenefit
    I agree, but that is not the point being made. See other replies.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878

    A prediction - when the numbers come out this week, the COVID deniers will use the argument that since the case numbers are below the peak of the 29th (Caused by Christmas Effect), there is no problem.

    My brother firmly belongs to this Covid denier group.
    He is constantly posting on Facebook about how all restrictions should be ended, and posting either false or misleading statistics about how it really isn't that bad.

    He completely misses the point that many statistics aren't being submitted at the moment, and the fact that these deaths and hospitalisations are WITH current restrictions, no doubt assuming they'd somehow would stay the same if everyone was just 'let out' again.

    He's mostly lost it, but that's what watching crap videos on YouTube will do to you.
    I didn't realise you were Jeremy Corbyn, welcome to pb.
    Regrettably not. I'm a Scouser, and Corbyn is definitely NOT from round here.
    That said, everyone votes for him so there is that I'm afraid.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,128

    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    When was the last time the LDs had a % that low? The 2 seat projection for them is looking a bit optimistic..
    Confirmed, this is the lowest LD poll rating since April 1990

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346090893330276352?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,221
    edited January 2021
    Gaussian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gaussian said:

    Nigelb said:

    Gaussian said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting. The UK's "really bad idea" of delaying the second dose of vaccine is gaining traction in the US:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/03/health/coronavirus-vaccine-doses.html

    So that's Germany and the US previously critical of the policy probably set to introduce it. Good to see them make the same u turn I did, the maths is absolutely undeniable having done it this morning. Single jabs give 30-40% more coverage at 70% efficacy for a single jab, if it's as high as 90% as is being investigated then it really is a no brainer.
    We will genuinely be world leading on this policy innovation for better or worse.

    Pfizer one appears to be 52% efficacy after first dose... so probably pretty debatable for that one whether there is much benefit to single jab approach https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4826

    Eek. I think that's a definite no given the additional mutation chances you give the virus with the partial protection.
    Even assuming a delayed booster 'gives the virus additional mutation chances' (which is not proven), why would that necessarily give the virus greater mutation chances than not having the vaccine at all ?

    Also, the 52%, as I pointed out above, is a somewhat misleading figure for 'efficacy'.
    I'm thinking if the virus gets a partial foothold with a longish fight between the virus and the vaccine-induced immune response, that provides a greater chance for mutations that evade the vaccine than if it was killed off with 95% reliability.

    Thanks for pointing out that the 52% shouldn't be taken at face value.
    But my question was in what way is that different or worse than a longish fight between the virus and a naive (unvaccinated) immune response ?
    The difference would be the selection pressure to evade the vaccine response, whereas naive mutations may still be stopped by the vaccine. (Or not, as feared with the SA strain.)
    But in the papers demonstrating potential vaccine escape by COVID (in the lab), they did so via forcing with convalescent serum, with no vaccine at all involved.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,218
    edited January 2021
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.

    They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.

    Maybe they should explain why none of their previous lockdowns have worked as expected before imposing another one.
    What are you on about - lockdowns have worked.
    People who trot this one out mean that Lockdowns have not eradicated the virus. Which is true but is rather like saying that some bloke's heart transplant has not worked because his dick is still the same size.

    Well it isn't, not really, but we're short of anagrams today.
    I think people who say lockdowns don`t work are doubtful that there is sufficient justification for them over and above similar social distancing that could be achieved via government advice rather than by more authoritarian measures. This is, of course, an arguable claim.

    If someone is arguing that additional social distancing doesn`t reduce virus transmission then they are bonkers.

    As I`ve said before, arguing against lockdown measures based on philosophical principle is one thing, resorting to pseudo-science is another.
    I agree there's a valid debate about "law vs guidance" and to what extent the law on things like household mixing, if it is to be law, should be policed. I lean to the "trust" rather than "enforce" side here. Perhaps surprising you.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,444
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Interesting data which backs up the hypothesis I have been advancing. Punters in these largely red wall swing states think the government is led by someone who will lie to them, will make the rich richer, won't fund the NHS and won't help them or their area level up.

    But they will support him because Brexit. The prize overrules all other considerations - why? Because when you have been sold a catch-all magic wand solution to all your ills you cling onto the illusion even if you know its a lie because thats all you have left.

    The previous thread asked how Labour win these voters back. As long as the political paradigm is based on opinions of Brexit I don't see how they can. Yes, you may be offering to tell them the truth and level up and invest and all the other things they want which they know the government not only aren't doing but lying to them about.

    But Brexit...
    This is why Labour is desperate for the topic of Brexit to go away, while the Tories want to keep it in the news. One question I have is whether bad news stories about Brexit might help Labour in the long run, by gradually chipping away at Red Wall support for Brexit, even if in the short run bringing the topic up helps the Tories. I suspect the answer is yes, but maybe I'm wrong.
    This is a big question. Perhaps the biggest. If - or let's face it when - Brexit disappoints on material matters, will the Buzz that many Red Wall leavers feel about "taking back control" from Brussels fade away? If it does, then this plus the lack of "unpatriotic" Corbyn should see Labour bouncing back up there. But a cautionary note is that these seats have been trending Con for some time.
    Brexit isn't going to disappoint in material matters. It can't. Unless another useless money pit is invented to spew money into (there's Covid, but everywhere has that). Looking for it and hoping that it will is going to result in a lot of angst and disappointment for you - I seriously wouldn't bother.
    The Thin Deal is expected to cost us significant GDP whereas Brexit was sold as a nice little earner. So that's quite a gap to cover up with smoke & mirrors. I agree it's unlikely that millions of Leavers will be crying foul but there might well be something insidious.
    Everything Brexity is going to be totally overshadowed by Covid for the next year - or more. If we escape and the vaccines work there will be a surge of optimism and a GDP bounce back - who cares about Brexit?

    If we slog on and the virus stays the same or worsens then - who cares about Brexit?

    By the time the fog of the pandemic has cleared Brexit will probably seem quite trivial, except to the small hardcore on either side.
    I agree with you short term but not so much thereafter. I think Brexit is going to take a sabbatical - and would have done even without Covid - but will then be back. Not with quite the heat, that is over, but with still some considerable clout as an issue. I also think the "values" defining aspect of it will prove stubborn to treatment, especially since one side, the Cons, don't want to treat it. Quite the opposite.
    It won’t disappear. But it will become a second order issue that occasionally spikes. Like, say, “law and order”.

    The Swiss don’t obsess about their relationship with the EU, it’s not a front page headline, daily. But it does sometimes surge, then it retreats again to the obscure biz pages.
    But the Swiss weren't chopped up into Ponceball Remainers vs Gamey Leavers for the best part of 5 years. I see this values split as having legs.
    True enough. I still don't think, outside the manic Leavers and FBPE Remoaners, that it will be a red-button issue. It will seethe under the surface but unseen.

    At least, not until Labour decide to put EEA or EFTA membership in their manifesto. Which is quite possible, in about ten years (I thought they'd do it in 2024 but Starmer seems V unkeen)

    The other way it might somewhat re-emerge is during Sindyref2. But again this isn't going to happen until well after the next GE.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    That looks voodoo to me. If Labour had lost 5, fair enough. LDs losing 5 looks like nonsense.
    Outlier maybe, voodoo definitely not. DeltaPoll are a BPC registered pollster, they aren't going to be conducting voodoo polls.
    Not voodoo, and it would be a shock if there weren't a Deal Bounce, but aren't polls conducted in holidays always a bit screwy?

    (More importantly, I think it's safe to assume that what has unfolded away from Brexit over the last week or so may impact on the polls in a way that's not to the governing party's advantage.)
    The logic is that it's middle class remainer Tories worried about no deal coming back home now that a deal is signed. It makes sense in those terms, though the shift is oddly large and I'd also expect a couple of points to come from Labour and the Tories to lose a couple of points to BXP as the last few Spartan no dealers desert the party.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,685
    edited January 2021
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mortimer said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1346059506132914176?s=20

    362. I accept that oppression as a bar to extradition requires a high threshold. I also accept that there is a strong public interest in giving effect to treaty obligations and that this is an important factor to have in mind. However, I am satisfied that, in these harsh conditions, Mr. Assange’s mental health would deteriorate causing him to commit suicide with the “single minded determination” of his autism spectrum disorder.

    363. I find that the mental condition of Mr. Assange is such that it would be oppressive to extradite him to the United States of America.


    Since the District Judge found for the USA on most of the points of law - tricky to see how they can appeal this.

    So, he voluntarily imprisoned himself in a small apartment for seven years, which made him go mad. And now he’s mad, he’s unfit to be deported to stand trial?

    Did I get that right?
    And he's coming out of Belmarsh into Tier 5 lockdown.

    I hope he gets The Vid.
    Does anyone have him in the pool?
    No. I made a trophy out of a broken BMW piston before I broke my wrist and it is sat on my desk awaiting a lucky winner.
    Now I know what the trophy is, I so want Trump to succumb to long covid.

    I think the signs are there tbh... serious mental deteriation is soon going to be followed by a complete loss of relevance.
  • Sandpit said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    "Danish firm DFDS launch new direct cargo service between Ireland & France to bypass the UK. The first ship today carried over 100 trucks & the service is already over-subscribed. Hauliers say the route is longer but avoids Brexit red-tape they would otherwise experience on the UK route."

    Suppose it will keep the queues down!

    Keeps the traffic down on UK roads. No issue with that.
    Well absolutely. I think I made that point, but doesn't it just maybe make you think 'well maybe it has cost and competitive issues for UK companies exporting and UK customers of EU products if Irish hauliers prefer a mega sea journey.
    Lorries going from Ireland to France bring little other than road damage and pollution to the U.K.

    Also eases any queues at Dover/Calais, but conversely allows the French to block that route without upsetting the Irish too much.
    Do they not pay a tax?
    Other than fuel tax? Which may not cover the damage lorries inflict - and may be refuelled overseas where its cheaper thus evading paying taxes here?
    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    "Danish firm DFDS launch new direct cargo service between Ireland & France to bypass the UK. The first ship today carried over 100 trucks & the service is already over-subscribed. Hauliers say the route is longer but avoids Brexit red-tape they would otherwise experience on the UK route."

    Suppose it will keep the queues down!

    Keeps the traffic down on UK roads. No issue with that.
    Well absolutely. I think I made that point, but doesn't it just maybe make you think 'well maybe it has cost and competitive issues for UK companies exporting and UK customers of EU products if Irish hauliers prefer a mega sea journey.
    Lorries going from Ireland to France bring little other than road damage and pollution to the U.K.

    Also eases any queues at Dover/Calais, but conversely allows the French to block that route without upsetting the Irish too much.
    Do they not pay a tax?
    All foreign lorries pay a “road usage fee” of something like £12 a day.

    IIRC we tried to make it much higher, to reflect the actual cost of CO2 and road wear a few years ago, but the EU wouldn’t let us.
    Yeah the £12 definitely isn't enough for the actual environmental and road damage associated to transiting trucks to Ireland, I'd call this a gain for our roads, environment and air quality if they start shipping directly to Ireland.
    Absolutely 100% agreed.

    I couldn't drive from my home to Dover on anything close to £12 of fuel duty, it wouldn't
    even scratch the surface.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,096
    edited January 2021
    We have Boris muttering about at some point we need tougher restrictions, Starmer saying we need to get tough and close the Zoos, only bloody Hunt gets it. Borders....close the bloody borders.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,244
    Andy_JS said:

    France is starting to vaccinate healthcare workers over 50, but President Emmanuel Macron has voiced his anger at the slow progress of the rollout in one of the world's most vaccine-sceptical countries.

    Do we have any idea why the French are a bunch of anti-vaxxers?

    Good question.
    One possible correlate is that there has historically been a higher incidence of alternative medicine there eg homeopathy.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    felix said:

    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    Heart of stone and all that.
    A truly bizarre poll. I expected a Brexit Tory bounce, but an LD collapse? Is it soft Tory Remainers who went LD now thinking ‘sod it, it’s done, and I’m really a conservative’?
    I think so, the seats the LDs gained from the Tories at the last election like St Albans and Richmond Park are full of rich Remainers who normally vote Tory but were terrified Boris would go for No Deal, now Boris has got a Brexit Deal they are returning home
    No they are not
    Churn? Lib Dems moving to Labour, Labour shifting to Tory?

    Would explain it, but that’s a horror poll for the Oranges.
    I don't believe the LDs are that low, churn or no churn.

    I agree Johnson has delivered some truly awesome news with his deal, his vaccine and saving Christmas for England, and the Conservatives fully deserve to be riding high in the polls, but that should be at the expense of Labour.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,444
    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    kjh said:

    "Danish firm DFDS launch new direct cargo service between Ireland & France to bypass the UK. The first ship today carried over 100 trucks & the service is already over-subscribed. Hauliers say the route is longer but avoids Brexit red-tape they would otherwise experience on the UK route."

    Suppose it will keep the queues down!

    Keeps the traffic down on UK roads. No issue with that.
    Well absolutely. I think I made that point, but doesn't it just maybe make you think 'well maybe it has cost and competitive issues for UK companies exporting and UK customers of EU products if Irish hauliers prefer a mega sea journey.
    Marginally, so be it. We already have marginal cost issues by using a different currency but the benefits outweigh the costs.

    Plus of course the Irish potentially need to do the paperwork twice, whereas the Brits only need to do it once.
    I agree with all of your reply Philip except one. What are these benefits? I mean actual benefits not abstract ones Iike sovereignty. I can list a whole lot of benefits I have personally lost. I can not think of a single benefit I have gained.
    You can now throw out (or elect), via the ballot box, all the people who make the crucial political decisions that govern your life.

    Take the Covid vaccine. The UK government is entirely responsible for buying, distributing and injecting this stuff into our arms. If they fuck it up, vote them out. If they do well, re-elect them, should you so wish.

    The EU however, via the Commission, decided to do an EU-wide scheme, launched on the same day, which some have found seriously flawed and laborious.

    If you're an EU citizen angry about this, how do you democratically punish those responsible? You can't.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,805
    Mr. W, 'alternative' is too polite a word for homeopathy.
  • NS saying Scotland 4 weeks behind London/South East.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mortimer said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1346059506132914176?s=20

    362. I accept that oppression as a bar to extradition requires a high threshold. I also accept that there is a strong public interest in giving effect to treaty obligations and that this is an important factor to have in mind. However, I am satisfied that, in these harsh conditions, Mr. Assange’s mental health would deteriorate causing him to commit suicide with the “single minded determination” of his autism spectrum disorder.

    363. I find that the mental condition of Mr. Assange is such that it would be oppressive to extradite him to the United States of America.


    Since the District Judge found for the USA on most of the points of law - tricky to see how they can appeal this.

    So, he voluntarily imprisoned himself in a small apartment for seven years, which made him go mad. And now he’s mad, he’s unfit to be deported to stand trial?

    Did I get that right?
    And he's coming out of Belmarsh into Tier 5 lockdown.

    I hope he gets The Vid.
    Does anyone have him in the pool?
    No. I made a trophy out of a broken BMW piston before I broke my wrist and it is sat on my desk awaiting a lucky winner.
    Now I know what the trophy is, I so want Trump to succumb to long covid.

    I think the signs are there tbh... serious mental deteriation is soon going to be followed by a complete loss of relevance.
    All that he really wants is people telling him hes great and the appearance of power.

    So just have a network he can watch which praises him all day, get actors in military uniforms to salute him, then set him up with a game of Democracy 4 and tell him it's real life and have someone enter the room every now and then to say good job.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,444
    Scott_xP said:
    IF Boris does not follow Scotland ASAP, this could be the end of his career as PM. Or the making of him. It's that big.

    Imagine Boris decides to delay. To wait two weeks or more (as some reports suggest). Imagine if, in that time, London and the SE continues to explode with cases, deaths rocket, hospitals turn away heart attack victims, the NHS totters. Imagine, in that same time, Scotland stabilises, deaths in Scotland fall, Scottish hospitals are fine.

    Can Boris survive that? Maybe not.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Nigelb said:

    Gaussian said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MaxPB said:

    Interesting. The UK's "really bad idea" of delaying the second dose of vaccine is gaining traction in the US:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/03/health/coronavirus-vaccine-doses.html

    So that's Germany and the US previously critical of the policy probably set to introduce it. Good to see them make the same u turn I did, the maths is absolutely undeniable having done it this morning. Single jabs give 30-40% more coverage at 70% efficacy for a single jab, if it's as high as 90% as is being investigated then it really is a no brainer.
    We will genuinely be world leading on this policy innovation for better or worse.

    Pfizer one appears to be 52% efficacy after first dose... so probably pretty debatable for that one whether there is much benefit to single jab approach https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4826

    Eek. I think that's a definite no given the additional mutation chances you give the virus with the partial protection.
    Even assuming a delayed booster 'gives the virus additional mutation chances' (which is not proven), why would that necessarily give the virus greater mutation chances than not having the vaccine at all ?

    Also, the 52%, as I pointed out above, is a somewhat misleading figure for 'efficacy'.
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.

    They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.

    Maybe they should explain why none of their previous lockdowns have worked as expected before imposing another one.
    What are you on about - lockdowns have worked.
    People who trot this one out mean that Lockdowns have not eradicated the virus. Which is true but is rather like saying that some bloke's heart transplant has not worked because his dick is still the same size.

    Well it isn't, not really, but we're short of anagrams today.
    I think people who say lockdowns don`t work are doubtful that there is sufficient justification for them over and above similar social distancing that could be achieved via government advice rather than by more authoritarian measures. This is, of course, an arguable claim.

    If someone is arguing that additional social distancing doesn`t reduce virus transmission then they are bonkers.

    As I`ve said before, arguing against lockdown measures based on philosophical principle is one thing, resorting to pseudo-science is another.
    Excellent post.

    For example, I am instinctively against restricting humans in this way – I consider the entire process hateful and its consequences even more so (mental health, moralising and curtain-twitching, the invasion of government into private lives, the grim trade off between protecting old lives vs ruining young ones).

    Yet I accept they are necessary, on some occasions and to some degree. Although it is possible we are at the stage where voluntary messaging is as if not more effective than closing down whatever is left open (e.g. outdoor zoos).

    And clearly reducing social contact is key in reducing spread, although there is a philosophical question as to whether a life without social contact is worthy of the name. And several other philosophical questions about where the risk tolerance for each demographic group should lie.

    I do not have the answers, but simply venture that they are valid questions.
  • https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1346098014700634112?s=20

    Why haven't the UK authorities assessed this vaccine? I know we aren't getting it until April, but might as well get it approved.
  • Scott_xP said:
    She is literally baiting him. Not for political point scoring purposes. Because she is a leader and he is not.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    felix said:

    For those thinking things are bad in the UK - here in Spain no detailed information on cases because of the holidays! However, figures on the rise again. Vaccinations way behind schedule - apparently each jab requires a doctor assessment, prescription and then injection by a registered nurse. Mañana? Maybe a little longer this time. And to make matters worse we're having rain for the first time since October this w/e. The grass is definitely browner over here!

    Only 18% of what is available used.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Scott_xP said:

    There will have been widespread social contact over Christmas which is likely to screw the numbers. I think the safest thing on balance is to lock down the whole country until Valentine's Day whereupon it will be reviewed.

    BUT this must be coupled with a clear exposition of how the the government will achieve 2, vaccinations a week from next week. Nothing less will do.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Imagine wittering on about zoos when the border is still open to tens of thousands of people per day who we know don't quarantine and have no idea about whether they have the virus. It's mental.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited January 2021

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1346098014700634112?s=20

    Why haven't the UK authorities assessed this vaccine? I know we aren't getting it until April, but might as well get it approved.

    Have Moderna submitted the data to the UK authorities?
  • https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1346098014700634112?s=20

    Why haven't the UK authorities assessed this vaccine? I know we aren't getting it until April, but might as well get it approved.

    I think you've answered your own question. Work on Oxford made sense before Moderna.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,706

    Full lockdown for Scotland confirmed

    It is but it's not *really* that different from what was the case anyway. It's still just fiddling on the margins of what was already the case.

    If the new variant does increase the R value by 0.7 as said, these measures are not going to balance that out.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,685
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mortimer said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1346059506132914176?s=20

    362. I accept that oppression as a bar to extradition requires a high threshold. I also accept that there is a strong public interest in giving effect to treaty obligations and that this is an important factor to have in mind. However, I am satisfied that, in these harsh conditions, Mr. Assange’s mental health would deteriorate causing him to commit suicide with the “single minded determination” of his autism spectrum disorder.

    363. I find that the mental condition of Mr. Assange is such that it would be oppressive to extradite him to the United States of America.


    Since the District Judge found for the USA on most of the points of law - tricky to see how they can appeal this.

    So, he voluntarily imprisoned himself in a small apartment for seven years, which made him go mad. And now he’s mad, he’s unfit to be deported to stand trial?

    Did I get that right?
    And he's coming out of Belmarsh into Tier 5 lockdown.

    I hope he gets The Vid.
    Does anyone have him in the pool?
    No. I made a trophy out of a broken BMW piston before I broke my wrist and it is sat on my desk awaiting a lucky winner.
    Now I know what the trophy is, I so want Trump to succumb to long covid.

    I think the signs are there tbh... serious mental deteriation is soon going to be followed by a complete loss of relevance.
    All that he really wants is people telling him hes great and the appearance of power.

    So just have a network he can watch which praises him all day, get actors in military uniforms to salute him, then set him up with a game of Democracy 4 and tell him it's real life and have someone enter the room every now and then to say good job.
    Alternatively, just don't. Don't pander to the orange idiot at all. Throw the book at him. He deserves all he has coming.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,685

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1346098014700634112?s=20

    Why haven't the UK authorities assessed this vaccine? I know we aren't getting it until April, but might as well get it approved.

    You've surely answered your own question there. What benefit is there in approving this side of March?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1346098014700634112?s=20

    Why haven't the UK authorities assessed this vaccine? I know we aren't getting it until April, but might as well get it approved.

    Have Moderna submitted the data to the UK authorities?
    Yes, but since no one outside of the US will get it until April there's much less urgency to get it approved.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    BUT this must be coupled with a clear exposition of how the the government will achieve 2, vaccinations a week from next week. Nothing less will do.

    Somewhat unambitious. Even Gavin Williamson could probably organise that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Mortimer said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1346059506132914176?s=20

    362. I accept that oppression as a bar to extradition requires a high threshold. I also accept that there is a strong public interest in giving effect to treaty obligations and that this is an important factor to have in mind. However, I am satisfied that, in these harsh conditions, Mr. Assange’s mental health would deteriorate causing him to commit suicide with the “single minded determination” of his autism spectrum disorder.

    363. I find that the mental condition of Mr. Assange is such that it would be oppressive to extradite him to the United States of America.


    Since the District Judge found for the USA on most of the points of law - tricky to see how they can appeal this.

    So, he voluntarily imprisoned himself in a small apartment for seven years, which made him go mad. And now he’s mad, he’s unfit to be deported to stand trial?

    Did I get that right?
    And he's coming out of Belmarsh into Tier 5 lockdown.

    I hope he gets The Vid.
    Does anyone have him in the pool?
    No. I made a trophy out of a broken BMW piston before I broke my wrist and it is sat on my desk awaiting a lucky winner.
    Now I know what the trophy is, I so want Trump to succumb to long covid.

    I think the signs are there tbh... serious mental deteriation is soon going to be followed by a complete loss of relevance.
    All that he really wants is people telling him hes great and the appearance of power.

    So just have a network he can watch which praises him all day, get actors in military uniforms to salute him, then set him up with a game of Democracy 4 and tell him it's real life and have someone enter the room every now and then to say good job.
    Alternatively, just don't. Don't pander to the orange idiot at all. Throw the book at him. He deserves all he has coming.
    Do both. Itll make him complacent.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    When was the last time the LDs had a % that low? The 2 seat projection for them is looking a bit optimistic..
    Confirmed, this is the lowest LD poll rating since April 1990

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346090893330276352?s=20
    As a sometimes LD voter they are at their least appealing and least relevant since then as well.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    edited January 2021

    We have Boris muttering about at some point we need tougher restrictions, Starmer saying we need to get tough and close the Zoos, only bloody Hunt gets it. Borders....close the bloody borders.

    Closing the border today, with mandatory quarantine for U.K. residents, is really what’s required.

    It would also have the unintended consequence of shutting up the d-listers going on about their ‘work’ trips to sunny places, who are destroying confidence in the restrictions.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,425
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    "Danish firm DFDS launch new direct cargo service between Ireland & France to bypass the UK. The first ship today carried over 100 trucks & the service is already over-subscribed. Hauliers say the route is longer but avoids Brexit red-tape they would otherwise experience on the UK route."

    Suppose it will keep the queues down!

    Does it actually benefit us to have thousands of Irish lorries pounding down our roads? I suppose they must spend a small amount of money but it is very arguable they are overall a disbenefit
    In general environmental terms it's bad to have the lorries on our roads. And then there's the congestion.

    The one benefit I can think of is that the extra volume using Holyhead, Dover, etc, creates economies of scale that makes the ports/ferries more efficient.

    But the main issue is symbolic and symptomatic. We don't really want the traffic, but we want people to think we're reliable enough that they don't make a special effort to avoid us.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Sandpit said:

    We have Boris muttering about at some point we need tougher restrictions, Starmer saying we need to get tough and close the Zoos, only bloody Hunt gets it. Borders....close the bloody borders.

    Closing the border today, with mandatory quarantine for U.K. residents, is really what’s required.

    It would also have the unintended consequence of shutting up the d-listers going on about their ‘work’ trips to sunny places.
    Yes, no non-residents allowed in or out without prior appointment until their nation has achieved herd immunity or they pay for 14 days hotel based quarantine.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    First post Boris' Brexit Deal poll sees the Tories get a 6% bounce.

    Main movement LD to Tory surprisingly.

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1346088853355040768?s=20

    When was the last time the LDs had a % that low? The 2 seat projection for them is looking a bit optimistic..
    1990 I think when Thatcher called them 'a dead parrot'

    https://youtu.be/DQ6TgaPJcR0
    I'd not seen that before.

    I am the opposite of a Thatch fan but...

    ...fair play, she delivered that with some elan.

    Her affected plummy voice made it better than the original!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    Mr. W, 'alternative' is too polite a word for homeopathy.

    Alternative TO medicine as the old joke goes.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    edited January 2021
    Wowser. Boris has had a brilliant couple of weeks. That's incredible polling 15 months in and after 10.5 years of a Tory government.
This discussion has been closed.