You can back Trump to cease to be POTUS in 2021 - an outcome with approx the same probability as the sun rising tomorrow - at 1.03. So a risk free 3% return on your money in 16 days. What an APR. Plus there's the added benefit of knowing that juicy return is being funded by delusional softhead Trumpsters.
I've gone all in on this one. Even if Biden dies, the bet still wins.
You really have to if you're someone who doesn't mind lumping. It's as close to zero risk as a bet can ever be. And it will pay promptly. There's no ambiguity.
Betting against Marine Le Pen after the 'Outre Mer' results came out vs Macron, & both 2016 and 2020 popular vote for the US elections are the only other 5 figure bets I've ever placed.
You're the political equivalent of Ladbrokes famous "Lady punter from Essex" who used to scout out things like Celtic to win the SPL at heavy odds on in the years it was a one horse race and stick a quarter million on. Never lost.
One reason they will close the schools in England is that Sturgeon is - it seems - about to do exactly that in Scotland. So then you get the English public and the Daily Mail saying What, are English kids less precious than Scottish kids? Do English lives count for less?
And so Boris will, alas, close the schools
But not in Wales yet
My sons school is back today though it is a private school (he is IT director not a pupil for clarification)
and my grandchildren's primary gores back on Wednesday
Wales will follow. We’re all heading into Tier 462b, where we are stapled to our sofas and our eyelids are sealed shut with superglue. Special self-driving food vans will park outside our homes, extend tubes through the open windows, and pipe hot broth - humorously nicknamed ‘Boris broth’ - into our gaping mouths.
And we all plug ourselves into the virtual reality called "the Matrix" so that we can go on holiday, watch cricket and argue about Brexit without worrying about lockdown. Or something.
If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
No one is ‘luxuriating in misery’. No one on this site WANTS bad things to happen. But something truly, historically awful IS happening, and the situation is likely to get considerably worse before - God willing - it improves.
On a clear-eyed site literally devoted to forecasting, ignoring this, to keep you cheerful, is beyond futile.
Ignoring negative aspects to remain in a good mood is the opposite of futile. The futility lies in becoming depressed by circumstances that lie totally outside your control.
Online schooling seems to be working pretty well for my 17-year-old, so far. He's had two lessons this morning, and he reckons he is learning more and getting more work done at home than he would have done in school, notwithstanding a couple of technical glitches at the start. The only drawback is that he expects a cup of tea from me at break times. Hats off to his school and teachers for getting themselves organised at such short notice!
Interesting data which backs up the hypothesis I have been advancing. Punters in these largely red wall swing states think the government is led by someone who will lie to them, will make the rich richer, won't fund the NHS and won't help them or their area level up.
But they will support him because Brexit. The prize overrules all other considerations - why? Because when you have been sold a catch-all magic wand solution to all your ills you cling onto the illusion even if you know its a lie because thats all you have left.
The previous thread asked how Labour win these voters back. As long as the political paradigm is based on opinions of Brexit I don't see how they can. Yes, you may be offering to tell them the truth and level up and invest and all the other things they want which they know the government not only aren't doing but lying to them about.
But Brexit...
This is why Labour is desperate for the topic of Brexit to go away, while the Tories want to keep it in the news. One question I have is whether bad news stories about Brexit might help Labour in the long run, by gradually chipping away at Red Wall support for Brexit, even if in the short run bringing the topic up helps the Tories. I suspect the answer is yes, but maybe I'm wrong.
This was Kier's big strategic mistake. As the scales fall from people's eyes there was an opportunity as you suggest. Build up the examples where brexit has done the opposite of what was promised (ask the fishing industry what that is like!) and play on the clear understanding Red Wall voters already have that this government and this PM are lying to them.
The problem for Labour is that they voted for the deal. Its problems are their problems because they gave their consent to it.Yes I fully accept that people will eventually rage at the Tories for lying to them. But Labour won't benefit as cleanly and obviously as they would have done by not supporting this lie.
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
To answer your questions: 1. No 2. No 3. No 4. No 5. No
This government don't have a fucking clue, and the only thing you can trust them to do is fuck this up and lie to us about it.
A slightly less partisan answer is as many as possible but the control will be the supply of vaccine, not its distribution. It is, however, the only important question at the moment and more clarity about where we are with vaccine deliveries would be helpful.
If not having a clue is partisan I am open to evidence from you that it does have a clue.
If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?
I have a friend who went to a NYE party. She’s 20. Her excuse was ‘I’m only 20 once and I’ve already lost a year of my youth’.
It’s quite hard to argue with that, even if her behaviour was clearly wrong.
Honestly I feel like whether he gets extradited is pretty moot to all except lawyers and Assange himself. Hes faced punishment for breaching bail as is only right and proper and the US stuff is not of much interest anymore.
Interesting data which backs up the hypothesis I have been advancing. Punters in these largely red wall swing states think the government is led by someone who will lie to them, will make the rich richer, won't fund the NHS and won't help them or their area level up.
But they will support him because Brexit. The prize overrules all other considerations - why? Because when you have been sold a catch-all magic wand solution to all your ills you cling onto the illusion even if you know its a lie because thats all you have left.
The previous thread asked how Labour win these voters back. As long as the political paradigm is based on opinions of Brexit I don't see how they can. Yes, you may be offering to tell them the truth and level up and invest and all the other things they want which they know the government not only aren't doing but lying to them about.
But Brexit...
This is why Labour is desperate for the topic of Brexit to go away, while the Tories want to keep it in the news. One question I have is whether bad news stories about Brexit might help Labour in the long run, by gradually chipping away at Red Wall support for Brexit, even if in the short run bringing the topic up helps the Tories. I suspect the answer is yes, but maybe I'm wrong.
This was Kier's big strategic mistake. As the scales fall from people's eyes there was an opportunity as you suggest. Build up the examples where brexit has done the opposite of what was promised (ask the fishing industry what that is like!) and play on the clear understanding Red Wall voters already have that this government and this PM are lying to them.
The problem for Labour is that they voted for the deal. Its problems are their problems because they gave their consent to it.Yes I fully accept that people will eventually rage at the Tories for lying to them. But Labour won't benefit as cleanly and obviously as they would have done by not supporting this lie.
If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?
How you're going to enforce that? A hard hitting questionnaire along the lines of US immigration's "Are you a terrorist?"
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
To answer your questions: 1. No 2. No 3. No 4. No 5. No
This government don't have a fucking clue, and the only thing you can trust them to do is fuck this up and lie to us about it.
To be fair, they probably don't know exactly how many doses they'll have by 1st March from either Pfizer or AZN. It was supposed to be 30 million already.
As long as they keep up with supply, that's all they can do.
I'm fairly sure Hugh Pym said 15 million doses of AZN have been produced, but it takes 3 weeks from production for them to be approved for release, but if correct by the end of January there should be more than enough vaccine to go around for the 2 million a week target. I expect we will hit that rate of vaccination by the end of the month.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson says that tougher measures will be announced "in due course" in England to control the spread of coronavirus.
Speaking during a visit to Chase Farm Hospital in north London to meet some of the first people to receive the Oxford vaccine, Johnson said there were "tough, tough" weeks to come.
If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?
How you're going to enforce that? A hard hitting questionnaire along the lines of US immigration's "Are you a terrorist?"
Examine their passports for the evidence of [edit] overseas such as Spanish holidays. That would be a start.
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
To answer your questions: 1. No 2. No 3. No 4. No 5. No
This government don't have a fucking clue, and the only thing you can trust them to do is fuck this up and lie to us about it.
To be fair, they probably don't know exactly how many doses they'll have by 1st March from either Pfizer or AZN. It was supposed to be 30 million already.
As long as they keep up with supply, that's all they can do.
Its not the supply of vaccine I am worried about, it is the government getting it into people's arms fast enough and managing the "we're/they're immune lets do what we want" mindset. Remember that having woken up to the month's old crisis of schools spreading the pox they proposed a brilliant solution. A one-off test. Applied by teachers. Supervised by 1/16th of a squaddie.
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
No one is ‘luxuriating in misery’. No one on this site WANTS bad things to happen. But something truly, historically awful IS happening, and the situation is likely to get considerably worse before - God willing - it improves.
On a clear-eyed site literally devoted to forecasting, ignoring this, to keep you cheerful, is beyond futile.
Ignoring negative aspects to remain in a good mood is the opposite of futile. The futility lies in becoming depressed by circumstances that lie totally outside your control.
That’s a fair point. However, I’m not depressed. What I am is deeply worried, for my friends, family, country, everyone on the bloody planet. I am also intellectually compelled by something so unprecedented, albeit grim - and I’m trying to work out what comes next.
If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?
How you're going to enforce that? A hard hitting questionnaire along the lines of US immigration's "Are you a terrorist?"
If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?
How you're going to enforce that? A hard hitting questionnaire along the lines of US immigration's "Are you a terrorist?"
Examine their passports for the evidence of [edit] overseas such as Spanish holidays. That would be a start.
That wasn't illegal, and indeed encouraged. Sadly.
Honestly I feel like whether he gets extradited is pretty moot to all except lawyers and Assange himself. Hes faced punishment for breaching bail as is only right and proper and the US stuff is not of much interest anymore.
It simply showed how embarrassingly craven we were to the US. The millions that have been spend surveilling, incarcerating, and trying him is ridiculous. It's time he was released, does jumping bail even carry a custodial sentence? Release him in to the world and stop spending British money on him - there is a pandemic on.
If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?
How you're going to enforce that? A hard hitting questionnaire along the lines of US immigration's "Are you a terrorist?"
Examine their passports for the evidence of [edit] overseas such as Spanish holidays. That would be a start.
I am not sure anyone's passport would show evidence of a Spanish holiday. Though you would be right for other parts of the world.
If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?
How you're going to enforce that? A hard hitting questionnaire along the lines of US immigration's "Are you a terrorist?"
Examine their passports for the evidence of [edit] overseas such as Spanish holidays. That would be a start.
That wasn't illegal, and indeed encouraged. Sadly.
Indeed. Not least because it took the pox both ways in the not so long run. V. unfair on the destination.
If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?
How you're going to enforce that? A hard hitting questionnaire along the lines of US immigration's "Are you a terrorist?"
Examine their passports for the evidence of [edit] overseas such as Spanish holidays. That would be a start.
I am not sure anyone's passport would show evidence of a Spanish holiday. Though you would be right for other parts of the world.
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
The government hasn't got a clue about any of those. It's definitely flying blind on vaccination numbers right now.
Indeed. Hence the attempts to distract from those questions, and people are buying it.
The only possible answer to those questions is
1-5 As many as possible, given the vaccine supply.
So far the vaccination program with the existing vaccine has managed
944,539 between the 8th and 27th of December.
So, even making no allowance for spin up time, getting supply chain issues sorted out, which is leading to accelerating rates, we have a rate of 50K per day.
It should be noted that this rate is constrained by vaccine supply, currently. That is, the vaccinators are running out of vaccine rather than time to vaccinate.
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
No one is ‘luxuriating in misery’. No one on this site WANTS bad things to happen. But something truly, historically awful IS happening, and the situation is likely to get considerably worse before - God willing - it improves.
On a clear-eyed site literally devoted to forecasting, ignoring this, to keep you cheerful, is beyond futile.
There's a genuine issue that some powewful people do buy into the "negative thinking makes bad things happen" guff.
Donald Trump has been strongly influenced by the "Power of Positive Thinking" preacher, Norman Peale;
You can see echoes of it in BoJo's philosophy as well.
And it's possible to see how it works in fields where success is all about persuading other people, but against an objective reality (like a pandemic) it's exactly the wrong thing to do.
If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?
How you're going to enforce that? A hard hitting questionnaire along the lines of US immigration's "Are you a terrorist?"
Check details from track and trace.
I wonder how many people are actually using the app. Not many I know are.
Boris will be please a majority of Conservative Leavers and a plurality of Tory Remainers and even Labour Leavers think the outcome he has reached with the EU is a good one.
Only Labour Remainers and LD voters and those in seats the Tories do not already hold think the deal he reached with the EU is a bad one
More important than party politics I really do think Brexit in the mind of most voters is settled and they are far more concerned, justifiably, about covid
Online schooling seems to be working pretty well for my 17-year-old, so far. He's had two lessons this morning, and he reckons he is learning more and getting more work done at home than he would have done in school, notwithstanding a couple of technical glitches at the start. The only drawback is that he expects a cup of tea from me at break times. Hats off to his school and teachers for getting themselves organised at such short notice!
As I said the other day this has also been my experience with my 13 year old son. He has flourished with online learning and, much as I would like to claim credit, I think it is down to a combination of him being able to work at his own pace and excellent systems and application by his school and teachers.
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
To answer your questions: 1. No 2. No 3. No 4. No 5. No
This government don't have a fucking clue, and the only thing you can trust them to do is fuck this up and lie to us about it.
A slightly less partisan answer is as many as possible but the control will be the supply of vaccine, not its distribution. It is, however, the only important question at the moment and more clarity about where we are with vaccine deliveries would be helpful.
I think the professional people involved in this have done some tallying and the 12 week gap to second vaccination is some mix of supply expectation, vaccination best practice, and the ability to cover the priority list (25m) in the time. So, 25m comfortably in 12 weeks, just over 2m a week, but you'd like to see that pace reached by the middle of this month.
Government are being cagey, but the clue to their plans is, I reckon, in their plans.
If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?
How you're going to enforce that? A hard hitting questionnaire along the lines of US immigration's "Are you a terrorist?"
Examine their passports for the evidence of [edit] overseas such as Spanish holidays. That would be a start.
That wasn't illegal, and indeed encouraged. Sadly.
Have they started stamping UK passports in the EU yet?
If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?
How you're going to enforce that? A hard hitting questionnaire along the lines of US immigration's "Are you a terrorist?"
Examine their passports for the evidence of [edit] overseas such as Spanish holidays. That would be a start.
I am not sure anyone's passport would show evidence of a Spanish holiday. Though you would be right for other parts of the world.
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
To answer your questions: 1. No 2. No 3. No 4. No 5. No
This government don't have a fucking clue, and the only thing you can trust them to do is fuck this up and lie to us about it.
A slightly less partisan answer is as many as possible but the control will be the supply of vaccine, not its distribution. It is, however, the only important question at the moment and more clarity about where we are with vaccine deliveries would be helpful.
If not having a clue is partisan I am open to evidence from you that it does have a clue.
Well, off the top of my head, the UK was the first to get a vaccine approved. We currently have more people vaccinated than the EU. We entered into speculative contracts that should ensure a good supply of vaccine for this country. We have tested more people than any other country in Europe now, more than Spain and Italy put together, for example.
So they do have a clue, several in fact. And they are making mistakes too. Not announcing school closures last week is one of the more recent ones.
One reason they will close the schools in England is that Sturgeon is - it seems - about to do exactly that in Scotland. So then you get the English public and the Daily Mail saying What, are English kids less precious than Scottish kids? Do English lives count for less?
And so Boris will, alas, close the schools
Scotland's schools are already shut to 18th January. I am expecting that to be extended to at least the end of the month today. TINA.
I am more willing than most to cut the government a fair bit of slack in dealing with an unprecedented pandemic which continues to generate surprises but the continued failure to read the most basic charts and think through the obvious implications is a frustration and a disappointment. I understand the reluctance and I share it but this has been blindingly obvious since the new variant became dominant.
London schools are also shut well into January anyway.
If, as has been predicted below, we get a daily case rate near 100,000 that will be psychologically horrifying for many, and the govt will have no choice but to lock us all up, as so many will be eager to hide.
This also raises a statistical question. Is the UK now seeing more cases, daily, per capita, than any other country during the pandemic? I know America had some horrific figures but we may now be worse
Belgium and Italy are doing worse than the UK at present. Makes sense in terms of population distribution i.e. a large proportion of the population concentrated in particular regions - northern Italy got clobbered from the start, but that's where many Italians live in close proximity of towns/cities, and there is a lot of commuting.
One of the small pleasures of Twitter is reading the replies to Richard Leonard's witless tweets, which are normally 100% people dunking on him. He's as thick as a brick.
One reason they will close the schools in England is that Sturgeon is - it seems - about to do exactly that in Scotland. So then you get the English public and the Daily Mail saying What, are English kids less precious than Scottish kids? Do English lives count for less?
And so Boris will, alas, close the schools
But not in Wales yet
My sons school is back today though it is a private school (he is IT director not a pupil for clarification)
and my grandchildren's primary gores back on Wednesday
My granddaughter (post grad at Sheffield) has an on-line lecture today. Her brother, primary school teacher, is on a Training Day and his wife, secondary teacher is waiting to be told when/if/how she restarts.
Meanwhile my grandchildren in Bangkok, where things have flared up again, are on-line again next week.
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
To answer your questions: 1. No 2. No 3. No 4. No 5. No
This government don't have a fucking clue, and the only thing you can trust them to do is fuck this up and lie to us about it.
A slightly less partisan answer is as many as possible but the control will be the supply of vaccine, not its distribution. It is, however, the only important question at the moment and more clarity about where we are with vaccine deliveries would be helpful.
I think the professional people involved in this have done some tallying and the 12 week gap to second vaccination is some mix of supply expectation, vaccination best practice, and the ability to cover the priority list (25m) in the time. So, 25m comfortably in 12 weeks, just over 2m a week, but you'd like to see that pace reached by the middle of this month.
Government are being cagey, but the clue to their plans is, I reckon, in their plans.
Then government are right not to elucidate, and let the numbers speak for themselves.
All that will happen is that media and other trolls will have another bone to chew on; we don't need that. This is far better than hostages to fortune offered previously.
AFAIK the distribution is being organised by the NHS and the suppliers, not the Govt directly, and it is better they do not help politicise something that is better off not being political - getting involved only when asked by the professionals.
A prediction - when the numbers come out this week, the COVID deniers will use the argument that since the case numbers are below the peak of the 29th (Caused by Christmas Effect), there is no problem.
My brother firmly belongs to this Covid denier group. He is constantly posting on Facebook about how all restrictions should be ended, and posting either false or misleading statistics about how it really isn't that bad.
He completely misses the point that many statistics aren't being submitted at the moment, and the fact that these deaths and hospitalisations are WITH current restrictions, no doubt assuming they'd somehow would stay the same if everyone was just 'let out' again.
He's mostly lost it, but that's what watching crap videos on YouTube will do to you.
If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?
How you're going to enforce that? A hard hitting questionnaire along the lines of US immigration's "Are you a terrorist?"
Check details from track and trace.
People are already reluctant to shop their contacts and thereby put them into isolation. You think that's going to improve with the threat of healthcare withdrawal?
Interesting data which backs up the hypothesis I have been advancing. Punters in these largely red wall swing states think the government is led by someone who will lie to them, will make the rich richer, won't fund the NHS and won't help them or their area level up.
But they will support him because Brexit. The prize overrules all other considerations - why? Because when you have been sold a catch-all magic wand solution to all your ills you cling onto the illusion even if you know its a lie because thats all you have left.
The previous thread asked how Labour win these voters back. As long as the political paradigm is based on opinions of Brexit I don't see how they can. Yes, you may be offering to tell them the truth and level up and invest and all the other things they want which they know the government not only aren't doing but lying to them about.
But Brexit...
This is why Labour is desperate for the topic of Brexit to go away, while the Tories want to keep it in the news. One question I have is whether bad news stories about Brexit might help Labour in the long run, by gradually chipping away at Red Wall support for Brexit, even if in the short run bringing the topic up helps the Tories. I suspect the answer is yes, but maybe I'm wrong.
This is a big question. Perhaps the biggest. If - or let's face it when - Brexit disappoints on material matters, will the Buzz that many Red Wall leavers feel about "taking back control" from Brussels fade away? If it does, then this plus the lack of "unpatriotic" Corbyn should see Labour bouncing back up there. But a cautionary note is that these seats have been trending Con for some time.
I think the professional people involved in this have done some tallying and the 12 week gap to second vaccination is some mix of supply expectation, vaccination best practice, and the ability to cover the priority list (25m) in the time. So, 25m comfortably in 12 weeks, just over 2m a week, but you'd like to see that pace reached by the middle of this month.
Government are being cagey, but the clue to their plans is, I reckon, in their plans.
Yeah the Imperial College modelling for curtailing the effects of the new variant calls for a rate of 2 million a week. I doubt that that number was plucked out of the air.
Vaccination is going to be a bit like the testing with the press and public perplexed that the target is not met on day one, but it got there in the end and has continued ramping up to levels which are quite extraordinary. PCR testing capacity is now 720,000 test per day.
Online schooling seems to be working pretty well for my 17-year-old, so far. He's had two lessons this morning, and he reckons he is learning more and getting more work done at home than he would have done in school, notwithstanding a couple of technical glitches at the start. The only drawback is that he expects a cup of tea from me at break times. Hats off to his school and teachers for getting themselves organised at such short notice!
As I said the other day this has also been my experience with my 13 year old son. He has flourished with online learning and, much as I would like to claim credit, I think it is down to a combination of him being able to work at his own pace and excellent systems and application by his school and teachers.
There will almost certainly be winners and losers across the school years, with some flourishing and others struggling, and they may be different ones to those who would flourish and struggle under "normal" conditions. It seems hard to see that either way is fairer than the other in that regard.
From a national perspective, what is more useful, getting our kids to learn in a highly managed and controlled environment that they have already experienced many years of, or learning in a different environment for a couple of months that is more akin to how the workplace will be for many when they leave school?
Online schooling seems to be working pretty well for my 17-year-old, so far. He's had two lessons this morning, and he reckons he is learning more and getting more work done at home than he would have done in school, notwithstanding a couple of technical glitches at the start. The only drawback is that he expects a cup of tea from me at break times. Hats off to his school and teachers for getting themselves organised at such short notice!
That's great, though I think LFH works better for middle class families with parents that WFH or working class immigrant families where education is a the major priority for children. For white working class families I can imagine the focus on education is much more lax outside of the school setting.
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
I don't dislike Boris personally, but really the weekend interview where he rambled about quite possibly introducing unspecified stricter measures in parts of the country in a few weeks' time showed him at his very worst. This sort of vacillation actually encourages people to get out and enjoy relative freedom while it lasts, which is exactly the wrong message. We don't need to be gently eased into restrictions like 5-year-olds. Get on with with it!
I am no Boris fan and I think lots of his positions are purely playing to gallery, but I think when it comes to lockdown it is something he genuinely finds goes against his beliefs. All polling says he would get loads of credit for strict lockdown measures, he has loads of political cover, it is advantageous for his premiership to do it, but he clearly finds it nearly impossible to do.
We know he will get there eventually, its a matter of how long and then how many days after he announces it, that the new measures come in. It really should have been announced Saturday, for today.
But if that's the reason I don't think it paints Johnson in any better light. There are no mainstream politicians in any party who relish the notion of closing schools and stopping people doing things like seeing their friends and family. From what I glean, the virus situation and short term prognosis is dire and there is not a shadow of a doubt that we will soon be in a Tier 5+ national lockdown which will last for many weeks.
Is there anywhere that one can bet on how long lockdowns, masks, etc will last?
I'm getting a bit fed up of the distorted 'science' and brainwashing and at a guess only 4-5 people on PB are also sceptical. But if I can make some ££ from it, it would cheer me up no end.
Nothing at the bookies no. But eye might be able to oblige. What bet do you want?
If the hospitals are struggling to cope with Covid cases, should they refuse to treat those who didn’t follow the rules - i.e. attended house parties, refused to wear masks, etc?
How you're going to enforce that? A hard hitting questionnaire along the lines of US immigration's "Are you a terrorist?"
Check details from track and trace.
People are already reluctant to shop their contacts and thereby put them into isolation. You think that's going to improve with the threat of healthcare withdrawal?
And I'm sure many are going to be delighted to be paying taxes for a service they can;t use.
Honestly I feel like whether he gets extradited is pretty moot to all except lawyers and Assange himself. Hes faced punishment for breaching bail as is only right and proper and the US stuff is not of much interest anymore.
What a waste of £11m+ UK policing costs, however many millions his trials cost and £3m+ Ecuadorian state funds.
362. I accept that oppression as a bar to extradition requires a high threshold. I also accept that there is a strong public interest in giving effect to treaty obligations and that this is an important factor to have in mind. However, I am satisfied that, in these harsh conditions, Mr. Assange’s mental health would deteriorate causing him to commit suicide with the “single minded determination” of his autism spectrum disorder.
363. I find that the mental condition of Mr. Assange is such that it would be oppressive to extradite him to the United States of America.
Since the District Judge found for the USA on most of the points of law - tricky to see how they can appeal this.
The inevitable consequence of the combination of 21st century education and work opportunities for women, with cultural attitudes towards marriage and childrearing from the 19th.
I see the doom pornographers are out in force again today.
This site really is ruined by people who luxuriate in misery.
Rather than this nonsense, can the government tell us:
1 How many people it will vaccinate this week? 2 How many people it will vaccinate next week? 3 How many people it will vaccinate by the end of the month? 4 How many people it will vaccinate by Valentine's Day? 5 How many people it will vaccinate by 1 March?
No one is ‘luxuriating in misery’. No one on this site WANTS bad things to happen. But something truly, historically awful IS happening, and the situation is likely to get considerably worse before - God willing - it improves.
On a clear-eyed site literally devoted to forecasting, ignoring this, to keep you cheerful, is beyond futile.
There's a genuine issue that some powewful people do buy into the "negative thinking makes bad things happen" guff.
Donald Trump has been strongly influenced by the "Power of Positive Thinking" preacher, Norman Peale;
You can see echoes of it in BoJo's philosophy as well.
And it's possible to see how it works in fields where success is all about persuading other people, but against an objective reality (like a pandemic) it's exactly the wrong thing to do.
Yes, it’s the mindset of the salesman, or the deal-maker. Because it works Relentless focus on the good news, and you make the sale, or seal the deal. Trump to a tee. And I agree Boris has elements of this, too.
It’s weird that Blair suddenly seems like the best potential PM, saying the wisest things. Much better than Starmer. And I am no fan of Blair
Boris Johnson says he had "misgivings" after shutting primary schools during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic.
Speaking on a visit to a London hospital, the Prime Minister said: "It's very important to understand that back in March, one of the things I look back on with the greatest misgivings was the closure of primary schools because it's so important for young people to get an education.
"That's why closing primary schools is, for all of us, a last resort. That's why we are looking at everything else we can possibly do to avoid that.
Watching O'Flynn and Co justifying lockdown four is going to be interesting.
And watching them moaning about the colossal damage they have all done.
They won't have to. You are wrong and they are using basic common sense. There is no need for justification as the vast majority of people recognise these facts.
"Here are some more lines from Boris Johnson’s interview for broadcasters at Chase Farm Hospital in north London this morning.
Johnson claimed that teachers were at no more risk of getting coronavirus than anyone else. He said: The risk to teachers, and of course we will do everything we can to protect teachers, but the risk to teachers is no greater than it is to anyone else. The reasons for wanting to keep schools open I think are very, very powerful"
If hundreds of thousands of students are sitting around at home, going mad, why doesn’t HMG train them all up to be vaccinators?
They’re young, fit, smart, and the least likely to get ill. It will also allow them to socialise and flirt, at least a bit. So they don’t go mad. Win win.
Boris Johnson says he had "misgivings" after shutting primary schools during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic.
Speaking on a visit to a London hospital, the Prime Minister said: "It's very important to understand that back in March, one of the things I look back on with the greatest misgivings was the closure of primary schools because it's so important for young people to get an education.
"That's why closing primary schools is, for all of us, a last resort. That's why we are looking at everything else we can possibly do to avoid that.
Online schooling seems to be working pretty well for my 17-year-old, so far. He's had two lessons this morning, and he reckons he is learning more and getting more work done at home than he would have done in school, notwithstanding a couple of technical glitches at the start. The only drawback is that he expects a cup of tea from me at break times. Hats off to his school and teachers for getting themselves organised at such short notice!
That's great, though I think LFH works better for middle class families with parents that WFH or working class immigrant families where education is a the major priority for children. For white working class families I can imagine the focus on education is much more lax outside of the school setting.
Grandson One, a primary teacher in one of Basildon's 'less nice' areas reports very mixed support, and indeed awareness, from parents. A bit more help from the DfE might be good, too.
Watching O'Flynn and Co justifying lockdown four is going to be interesting.
And watching them moaning about the colossal damage they have all done.
What exactly do you think would have happened to the UK without lockdowns? Numbers please. How many deaths, how many infected. What would have been the economic impact of that many deaths on the country? Is that impact greater or lesser than the cost of what’s actually been done?
If you want to oppose lockdowns, then do the work: Run the numbers. I’m sure you can do that, can’t you? If it’s so obvious to you that lockdowns don’t work & aren’t worth the cost, then the numbers must be very clear.
Online schooling seems to be working pretty well for my 17-year-old, so far. He's had two lessons this morning, and he reckons he is learning more and getting more work done at home than he would have done in school, notwithstanding a couple of technical glitches at the start. The only drawback is that he expects a cup of tea from me at break times. Hats off to his school and teachers for getting themselves organised at such short notice!
That's great, though I think LFH works better for middle class families with parents that WFH or working class immigrant families where education is a the major priority for children. For white working class families I can imagine the focus on education is much more lax outside of the school setting.
For example, for children of 1st generation immigrants, the immersion in English at school, as early as possible, is massive factor in acquiring good English skills.
I binge watched the first 4 episodes last night. It was ok, nothing more.
It gets better. Season 2 is much better than Season 1, but still rather formulaic, but then that's Star Wars isn't really.....Cowboys and Indians in space.
Interesting data which backs up the hypothesis I have been advancing. Punters in these largely red wall swing states think the government is led by someone who will lie to them, will make the rich richer, won't fund the NHS and won't help them or their area level up.
But they will support him because Brexit. The prize overrules all other considerations - why? Because when you have been sold a catch-all magic wand solution to all your ills you cling onto the illusion even if you know its a lie because thats all you have left.
The previous thread asked how Labour win these voters back. As long as the political paradigm is based on opinions of Brexit I don't see how they can. Yes, you may be offering to tell them the truth and level up and invest and all the other things they want which they know the government not only aren't doing but lying to them about.
But Brexit...
This is why Labour is desperate for the topic of Brexit to go away, while the Tories want to keep it in the news. One question I have is whether bad news stories about Brexit might help Labour in the long run, by gradually chipping away at Red Wall support for Brexit, even if in the short run bringing the topic up helps the Tories. I suspect the answer is yes, but maybe I'm wrong.
This is a big question. Perhaps the biggest. If - or let's face it when - Brexit disappoints on material matters, will the Buzz that many Red Wall leavers feel about "taking back control" from Brussels fade away? If it does, then this plus the lack of "unpatriotic" Corbyn should see Labour bouncing back up there. But a cautionary note is that these seats have been trending Con for some time.
People hate to admit that they were wrong. Weirdly, I think this is particularly true when they have been lied to. So for a long time I suspect that the anti-Brexit message will fall on deaf ears, and will put people's backs up. On the other hand, they are not going to hear the message if nobody is making it. You are right that the trend in many of these seats is against Labour anyway - eg mining seats are transforming from industrial to rural areas - with plenty of newcomers including some white flight from Northern cities who are not going to be Labour voters. Labour doesn't need to win all of these seats, and won't even in a landslide win.
Boris Johnson says he had "misgivings" after shutting primary schools during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic.
Speaking on a visit to a London hospital, the Prime Minister said: "It's very important to understand that back in March, one of the things I look back on with the greatest misgivings was the closure of primary schools because it's so important for young people to get an education.
"That's why closing primary schools is, for all of us, a last resort. That's why we are looking at everything else we can possibly do to avoid that.
In this, Johnson is absolutely correct.
He is, but I fear he is now out of choices. The virus is rampant. And collapsing the NHS. What do you suggest as an alternative?
Father has been in hospital since late December after suspected stroke - today we were advised Covid has found its way onto his ward.
Happy days!!
Not good news, even worse being in hospital now than it usually is , if you are to pick anything up it is going to be in hospital. Fingers crossed he is OK.
Boris Johnson says he had "misgivings" after shutting primary schools during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic.
Speaking on a visit to a London hospital, the Prime Minister said: "It's very important to understand that back in March, one of the things I look back on with the greatest misgivings was the closure of primary schools because it's so important for young people to get an education.
"That's why closing primary schools is, for all of us, a last resort. That's why we are looking at everything else we can possibly do to avoid that.
Why is he even visting a hospital - aren't they busy enough without having to deal with a Prime Ministerial visit?
Germany is seeking advice on whether to delay giving the second dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine to make supplies go further, in a similar move to the UK, according to a document seen by the Reuters news agency.
The country's health ministry has asked an independent vaccination commission for its opinion on administering the second shot later than 42 days after the first.
Online schooling seems to be working pretty well for my 17-year-old, so far. He's had two lessons this morning, and he reckons he is learning more and getting more work done at home than he would have done in school, notwithstanding a couple of technical glitches at the start. The only drawback is that he expects a cup of tea from me at break times. Hats off to his school and teachers for getting themselves organised at such short notice!
That's great, though I think LFH works better for middle class families with parents that WFH or working class immigrant families where education is a the major priority for children. For white working class families I can imagine the focus on education is much more lax outside of the school setting.
For example, for children of 1st generation immigrants, the immersion in English at school, as early as possible, is massive factor in acquiring good English skills.
Yes, absolutely. Even for my sister and I growing up in a multi-generational household where English wasn't spoken at home as the main language school was definitely the first place where we came into contact with English properly. From what I can tell it was also around that time that our household went from our own language first to English being primarily spoken at home. One of my earliest memories of if my grandfather speaking perfect Queen's English to my sister and I and being really confused that he could.
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
I don't dislike Boris personally, but really the weekend interview where he rambled about quite possibly introducing unspecified stricter measures in parts of the country in a few weeks' time showed him at his very worst. This sort of vacillation actually encourages people to get out and enjoy relative freedom while it lasts, which is exactly the wrong message. We don't need to be gently eased into restrictions like 5-year-olds. Get on with with it!
I am no Boris fan and I think lots of his positions are purely playing to gallery, but I think when it comes to lockdown it is something he genuinely finds goes against his beliefs. All polling says he would get loads of credit for strict lockdown measures, he has loads of political cover, it is advantageous for his premiership to do it, but he clearly finds it nearly impossible to do.
We know he will get there eventually, its a matter of how long and then how many days after he announces it, that the new measures come in. It really should have been announced Saturday, for today.
But if that's the reason I don't think it paints Johnson in any better light. There are no mainstream politicians in any party who relish the notion of closing schools and stopping people doing things like seeing their friends and family. From what I glean, the virus situation and short term prognosis is dire and there is not a shadow of a doubt that we will soon be in a Tier 5+ national lockdown which will last for many weeks.
I am no doubt seething with anti BJ prejudice, but I think his deep unwillingness to front up bad news is more of a factor than any problems with his beliefs (whatever they might be). Very unChurchillian.
And it's a shame. Through gritted synapses I recognize that he is gifted with an ability to reach people. He could deliver the "At this time of great peril for our nation we must make a supreme national effort" speech that imo is required. But no. Cometh the Hour flunketh the Man. So far anyway. Maybe this evening or tomorrow. Or Wednesday.
If hundreds of thousands of students are sitting around at home, going mad, why doesn’t HMG train them all up to be vaccinators?
They’re young, fit, smart, and the least likely to get ill. It will also allow them to socialise and flirt, at least a bit. So they don’t go mad. Win win.
Do you think people getting vaccinated should have to endure chat up lines from spotty little herberts on top of everything else?
If hundreds of thousands of students are sitting around at home, going mad, why doesn’t HMG train them all up to be vaccinators?
They’re young, fit, smart, and the least likely to get ill. It will also allow them to socialise and flirt, at least a bit. So they don’t go mad. Win win.
Do you think people getting vaccinated should have to endure chat up lines from spotty little herberts on top of everything else?
Not sure I'd want them handling the actual jab - I do think vets and dentists should be involved in the effort though.
Interesting data which backs up the hypothesis I have been advancing. Punters in these largely red wall swing states think the government is led by someone who will lie to them, will make the rich richer, won't fund the NHS and won't help them or their area level up.
But they will support him because Brexit. The prize overrules all other considerations - why? Because when you have been sold a catch-all magic wand solution to all your ills you cling onto the illusion even if you know its a lie because thats all you have left.
The previous thread asked how Labour win these voters back. As long as the political paradigm is based on opinions of Brexit I don't see how they can. Yes, you may be offering to tell them the truth and level up and invest and all the other things they want which they know the government not only aren't doing but lying to them about.
But Brexit...
This is why Labour is desperate for the topic of Brexit to go away, while the Tories want to keep it in the news. One question I have is whether bad news stories about Brexit might help Labour in the long run, by gradually chipping away at Red Wall support for Brexit, even if in the short run bringing the topic up helps the Tories. I suspect the answer is yes, but maybe I'm wrong.
This is a big question. Perhaps the biggest. If - or let's face it when - Brexit disappoints on material matters, will the Buzz that many Red Wall leavers feel about "taking back control" from Brussels fade away? If it does, then this plus the lack of "unpatriotic" Corbyn should see Labour bouncing back up there. But a cautionary note is that these seats have been trending Con for some time.
Brexit isn't going to disappoint in material matters. It can't. Unless another useless money pit is invented to spew money into (there's Covid, but everywhere has that). Looking for it and hoping that it will is going to result in a lot of angst and disappointment for you - I seriously wouldn't bother.
362. I accept that oppression as a bar to extradition requires a high threshold. I also accept that there is a strong public interest in giving effect to treaty obligations and that this is an important factor to have in mind. However, I am satisfied that, in these harsh conditions, Mr. Assange’s mental health would deteriorate causing him to commit suicide with the “single minded determination” of his autism spectrum disorder.
363. I find that the mental condition of Mr. Assange is such that it would be oppressive to extradite him to the United States of America.
Since the District Judge found for the USA on most of the points of law - tricky to see how they can appeal this.
So, he voluntarily imprisoned himself in a small apartment for seven years, which made him go mad. And now he’s mad, he’s unfit to be deported to stand trial?
362. I accept that oppression as a bar to extradition requires a high threshold. I also accept that there is a strong public interest in giving effect to treaty obligations and that this is an important factor to have in mind. However, I am satisfied that, in these harsh conditions, Mr. Assange’s mental health would deteriorate causing him to commit suicide with the “single minded determination” of his autism spectrum disorder.
363. I find that the mental condition of Mr. Assange is such that it would be oppressive to extradite him to the United States of America.
Since the District Judge found for the USA on most of the points of law - tricky to see how they can appeal this.
So, he voluntarily imprisoned himself in a small apartment for seven years, which made him go mad. And now he’s mad, he’s unfit to be deported to stand trial?
Father has been in hospital since late December after suspected stroke - today we were advised Covid has found its way onto his ward.
Happy days!!
Not good news, even worse being in hospital now than it usually is , if you are to pick anything up it is going to be in hospital. Fingers crossed he is OK.
Iranian media reported on Monday that the country’s elite Revolutionary Guards navy has seized a South Korean vessel “for polluting the Persian Gulf with chemicals”.
If hundreds of thousands of students are sitting around at home, going mad, why doesn’t HMG train them all up to be vaccinators?
They’re young, fit, smart, and the least likely to get ill. It will also allow them to socialise and flirt, at least a bit. So they don’t go mad. Win win.
Do you think people getting vaccinated should have to endure chat up lines from spotty little herberts on top of everything else?
Not sure I'd want them handling the actual jab - I do think vets and dentists should be involved in the effort though.
Joking aside, it's actually a nice idea. I don't see anything blocking students from signing up now, but perhaps it should be made into a 'thing'.
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
I don't dislike Boris personally, but really the weekend interview where he rambled about quite possibly introducing unspecified stricter measures in parts of the country in a few weeks' time showed him at his very worst. This sort of vacillation actually encourages people to get out and enjoy relative freedom while it lasts, which is exactly the wrong message. We don't need to be gently eased into restrictions like 5-year-olds. Get on with with it!
I am no Boris fan and I think lots of his positions are purely playing to gallery, but I think when it comes to lockdown it is something he genuinely finds goes against his beliefs. All polling says he would get loads of credit for strict lockdown measures, he has loads of political cover, it is advantageous for his premiership to do it, but he clearly finds it nearly impossible to do.
We know he will get there eventually, its a matter of how long and then how many days after he announces it, that the new measures come in. It really should have been announced Saturday, for today.
But if that's the reason I don't think it paints Johnson in any better light. There are no mainstream politicians in any party who relish the notion of closing schools and stopping people doing things like seeing their friends and family. From what I glean, the virus situation and short term prognosis is dire and there is not a shadow of a doubt that we will soon be in a Tier 5+ national lockdown which will last for many weeks.
I am no doubt seething with anti BJ prejudice, but I think his deep unwillingness to front up bad news is more of a factor than any problems with his beliefs (whatever they might be). Very unChurchillian.
And it's a shame. Through gritted synapses I recognize that he is gifted with an ability to reach people. He could deliver the "At this time of great peril for our nation we must make a supreme national effort" speech that imo is required. But no. Cometh the Hour flunketh the Man. So far anyway. Maybe this evening or tomorrow. Or Wednesday.
Indeed. As others have posted, as well as being gifted with the ability to reach people he's cursed with an almost pathetic desire to be liked. As a result he cannot cope with the idea of giving bad news.
I wonder how he managed to leave his various wives and other paramours? Or did they discover his peccadillos and leave him?
Online schooling seems to be working pretty well for my 17-year-old, so far. He's had two lessons this morning, and he reckons he is learning more and getting more work done at home than he would have done in school, notwithstanding a couple of technical glitches at the start. The only drawback is that he expects a cup of tea from me at break times. Hats off to his school and teachers for getting themselves organised at such short notice!
That's great, though I think LFH works better for middle class families with parents that WFH or working class immigrant families where education is a the major priority for children. For white working class families I can imagine the focus on education is much more lax outside of the school setting.
For example, for children of 1st generation immigrants, the immersion in English at school, as early as possible, is massive factor in acquiring good English skills.
Yes, absolutely. Even for my sister and I growing up in a multi-generational household where English wasn't spoken at home as the main language school was definitely the first place where we came into contact with English properly. From what I can tell it was also around that time that our household went from our own language first to English being primarily spoken at home. One of my earliest memories of if my grandfather speaking perfect Queen's English to my sister and I and being really confused that he could.
Please excuse the pedantry (and since we're on the subject of English), but that should be "... speaking perfect Queen's English to my sister and me" since the pronoun in question is part of the (indirect) object of the sentence, not the subject. That's one grammar mistake that, sadly, I know, always winds me up a little bit!
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
I don't dislike Boris personally, but really the weekend interview where he rambled about quite possibly introducing unspecified stricter measures in parts of the country in a few weeks' time showed him at his very worst. This sort of vacillation actually encourages people to get out and enjoy relative freedom while it lasts, which is exactly the wrong message. We don't need to be gently eased into restrictions like 5-year-olds. Get on with with it!
I am no Boris fan and I think lots of his positions are purely playing to gallery, but I think when it comes to lockdown it is something he genuinely finds goes against his beliefs. All polling says he would get loads of credit for strict lockdown measures, he has loads of political cover, it is advantageous for his premiership to do it, but he clearly finds it nearly impossible to do.
We know he will get there eventually, its a matter of how long and then how many days after he announces it, that the new measures come in. It really should have been announced Saturday, for today.
But if that's the reason I don't think it paints Johnson in any better light. There are no mainstream politicians in any party who relish the notion of closing schools and stopping people doing things like seeing their friends and family. From what I glean, the virus situation and short term prognosis is dire and there is not a shadow of a doubt that we will soon be in a Tier 5+ national lockdown which will last for many weeks.
I am no doubt seething with anti BJ prejudice, but I think his deep unwillingness to front up bad news is more of a factor than any problems with his beliefs (whatever they might be). Very unChurchillian.
And it's a shame. Through gritted synapses I recognize that he is gifted with an ability to reach people. He could deliver the "At this time of great peril for our nation we must make a supreme national effort" speech that imo is required. But no. Cometh the Hour flunketh the Man. So far anyway. Maybe this evening or tomorrow. Or Wednesday.
I agree. I rashly posted here when the very first Downing St broadcasts were made how perfect Boris was for making these (I got a like from Philip). He has the ability to make a good speech and can refer to the experts either side of him for the details stuff.
But he hasn't been. People like Grant Shapps (whom I don't respect because of his history) has done a cracking job in these sessions and when interviewed in the media.
Iranian media reported on Monday that the country’s elite Revolutionary Guards navy has seized a South Korean vessel “for polluting the Persian Gulf with chemicals”.
Interesting data which backs up the hypothesis I have been advancing. Punters in these largely red wall swing states think the government is led by someone who will lie to them, will make the rich richer, won't fund the NHS and won't help them or their area level up.
But they will support him because Brexit. The prize overrules all other considerations - why? Because when you have been sold a catch-all magic wand solution to all your ills you cling onto the illusion even if you know its a lie because thats all you have left.
The previous thread asked how Labour win these voters back. As long as the political paradigm is based on opinions of Brexit I don't see how they can. Yes, you may be offering to tell them the truth and level up and invest and all the other things they want which they know the government not only aren't doing but lying to them about.
But Brexit...
This is why Labour is desperate for the topic of Brexit to go away, while the Tories want to keep it in the news. One question I have is whether bad news stories about Brexit might help Labour in the long run, by gradually chipping away at Red Wall support for Brexit, even if in the short run bringing the topic up helps the Tories. I suspect the answer is yes, but maybe I'm wrong.
This is a big question. Perhaps the biggest. If - or let's face it when - Brexit disappoints on material matters, will the Buzz that many Red Wall leavers feel about "taking back control" from Brussels fade away? If it does, then this plus the lack of "unpatriotic" Corbyn should see Labour bouncing back up there. But a cautionary note is that these seats have been trending Con for some time.
People hate to admit that they were wrong. Weirdly, I think this is particularly true when they have been lied to. So for a long time I suspect that the anti-Brexit message will fall on deaf ears, and will put people's backs up. On the other hand, they are not going to hear the message if nobody is making it. You are right that the trend in many of these seats is against Labour anyway - eg mining seats are transforming from industrial to rural areas - with plenty of newcomers including some white flight from Northern cities who are not going to be Labour voters. Labour doesn't need to win all of these seats, and won't even in a landslide win.
Then we get back to Starmer's approach; Brexit has been done, there's no debate, use the mechanisms in Boris's terrible deal to make it work better for people. (Whisper it, but that's going to mean closer engagement with the EU as it is, and acknowledging that whilst the sovereignty of the UK and EU are of equal type and status, they are not of equal mass.)
In the meantime, think tanks can think, and fringe politicians can keep the flame alive. Not dignified, and not much fun for the impatient, but it is the only way for now.
If hundreds of thousands of students are sitting around at home, going mad, why doesn’t HMG train them all up to be vaccinators?
They’re young, fit, smart, and the least likely to get ill. It will also allow them to socialise and flirt, at least a bit. So they don’t go mad. Win win.
I really don't know what the government are waiting for re a new lockdown.
They have loads of political cover in terms of Cockey Covid and now SA Covid, to brush off claims of but but but you said no new national lockdown ever. And also the polling shows repeatedly that the majority of the public urge on the side of caution when it comes to further restrictions.
I don't dislike Boris personally, but really the weekend interview where he rambled about quite possibly introducing unspecified stricter measures in parts of the country in a few weeks' time showed him at his very worst. This sort of vacillation actually encourages people to get out and enjoy relative freedom while it lasts, which is exactly the wrong message. We don't need to be gently eased into restrictions like 5-year-olds. Get on with with it!
I am no Boris fan and I think lots of his positions are purely playing to gallery, but I think when it comes to lockdown it is something he genuinely finds goes against his beliefs. All polling says he would get loads of credit for strict lockdown measures, he has loads of political cover, it is advantageous for his premiership to do it, but he clearly finds it nearly impossible to do.
We know he will get there eventually, its a matter of how long and then how many days after he announces it, that the new measures come in. It really should have been announced Saturday, for today.
But if that's the reason I don't think it paints Johnson in any better light. There are no mainstream politicians in any party who relish the notion of closing schools and stopping people doing things like seeing their friends and family. From what I glean, the virus situation and short term prognosis is dire and there is not a shadow of a doubt that we will soon be in a Tier 5+ national lockdown which will last for many weeks.
I am no doubt seething with anti BJ prejudice, but I think his deep unwillingness to front up bad news is more of a factor than any problems with his beliefs (whatever they might be). Very unChurchillian.
And it's a shame. Through gritted synapses I recognize that he is gifted with an ability to reach people. He could deliver the "At this time of great peril for our nation we must make a supreme national effort" speech that imo is required. But no. Cometh the Hour flunketh the Man. So far anyway. Maybe this evening or tomorrow. Or Wednesday.
Indeed. As others have posted, as well as being gifted with the ability to reach people he's cursed with an almost pathetic desire to be liked. As a result he cannot cope with the idea of giving bad news.
I wonder how he managed to leave his various wives and other paramours? Or did they discover his peccadillos and leave him?
A reverse Cassandra complex, if one wanted to follow him and be all classical.
If hundreds of thousands of students are sitting around at home, going mad, why doesn’t HMG train them all up to be vaccinators?
They’re young, fit, smart, and the least likely to get ill. It will also allow them to socialise and flirt, at least a bit. So they don’t go mad. Win win.
"Gosh you have SUCH a large bicep. I can't miss!"
This sort of thing?
I rather think that the students would be more interested in each other than the sort of people being targeted for immunization for the first several weeks.
Thinking about the prospects of the NHS overloading (which is very plausibly imminent), I had a quick and dirty look at the numbers involved.
At the moment, it looks like a little over 40,000 cases declared against specimen date seems to equate to about 3000 hospitalisations per day. Using Malmesbury's figures for proportion of hospitalisation per age category, the long-running percentage of hospitalisations that die (27.8% in a scarily reliable average during the second wave) and the figures for the proportion of each age band that make up the deaths, and assuming it will scale up as the declared cases scale up, you get this table:
All laden with assumptions, of course (such as: are we catching a constant fraction of the true cases in our reported cases?)
We can then assume that deaths per age band will rise if hospital assistance isn't available, towards the hospitalised numbers (This is a more fraught assumption. On the one hand, not all deaths from covid are in hospital. On the other, not everyone hospitalised would die without help, although we do know they were hospitalised for a reason. I'd suspect the number would go from around 100% of the hospitalised figures at the eldest end of the scale to a distinctly smaller fraction at the bottom - although I doubt it would ever go much below a quarter, given that around a sixth of those children hospitalised need ICU, and we'd assume everyone who needs intensive care is a goner without support. That would leave as many as 90% of hospitalised children who didn't need ICU recovering without any support, which would seem optimistic, so that would be a top end)
We can use a rough rule of thumb that 1500 hospitalisations per day can be reliably coped with (when they reach saturation), as under 1500 has seen hospital populations descending and over 1500 has seen them climbing. Rough rule of thumb.
Assume triage is done to prioritise the youngest. Count upwards on the hospitalisations numbers on the daily row until you get to 1500. Every row above that has deaths actually tending towards hospitalisation numbers rather than actual deaths. (Further source of error: this will not be uniform over the country. Some areas might need to triage down to a third or quarter; others may not need to triage at all)
Make whatever assumptions you see fit on vaccination numbers, counting down. If you assume all over 85s are protected, remove this row. All over 75s, do the same. And so on. (Not all will be protected - maybe around 70%, but we're talking rough rule of thumb)
The scary thing is - if we level out at 40,000 cases reported per day, AND somehow the hospitals don't oversaturate, we're still looking at around 25,000 deaths in January.
Remember that the deaths column on the table as it stands is on the assumption that the hospitals don't overload. The hospitalisations figure would show the absolute maximum if all hospitals turned everyone away (not happening).
Honestly I feel like whether he gets extradited is pretty moot to all except lawyers and Assange himself. Hes faced punishment for breaching bail as is only right and proper and the US stuff is not of much interest anymore.
It simply showed how embarrassingly craven we were to the US. The millions that have been spend surveilling, incarcerating, and trying him is ridiculous. It's time he was released, does jumping bail even carry a custodial sentence? Release him in to the world and stop spending British money on him - there is a pandemic on.
I dont know how it shows that, he breached his bail on an unrelated manner. Absolutely he should have been punished for that given the extremes he went to.
That done, I dont care if the US gets him or not depending what our law allows .
Comments
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1346007219427553281?s=20
https://twitter.com/Slate/status/1346015355454558208?s=20
I always suspected money laundering. Being Essex.
The problem for Labour is that they voted for the deal. Its problems are their problems because they gave their consent to it.Yes I fully accept that people will eventually rage at the Tories for lying to them. But Labour won't benefit as cleanly and obviously as they would have done by not supporting this lie.
It’s quite hard to argue with that, even if her behaviour was clearly wrong.
Honestly I feel like whether he gets extradited is pretty moot to all except lawyers and Assange himself. Hes faced punishment for breaching bail as is only right and proper and the US stuff is not of much interest anymore.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson says that tougher measures will be announced "in due course" in England to control the spread of coronavirus.
Speaking during a visit to Chase Farm Hospital in north London to meet some of the first people to receive the Oxford vaccine, Johnson said there were "tough, tough" weeks to come.
Soon comes the Fall.
1-5 As many as possible, given the vaccine supply.
So far the vaccination program with the existing vaccine has managed
944,539 between the 8th and 27th of December.
So, even making no allowance for spin up time, getting supply chain issues sorted out, which is leading to accelerating rates, we have a rate of 50K per day.
It should be noted that this rate is constrained by vaccine supply, currently. That is, the vaccinators are running out of vaccine rather than time to vaccinate.
Donald Trump has been strongly influenced by the "Power of Positive Thinking" preacher, Norman Peale;
https://www.npr.org/2020/07/24/894967922/norman-vincent-peale-was-a-conservative-hero-known-well-beyond-his-era?t=1609759840534
You can see echoes of it in BoJo's philosophy as well.
And it's possible to see how it works in fields where success is all about persuading other people, but against an objective reality (like a pandemic) it's exactly the wrong thing to do.
https://twitter.com/LabourRichard/status/1345739229134024704?s=20
Government are being cagey, but the clue to their plans is, I reckon, in their plans.
So they do have a clue, several in fact. And they are making mistakes too. Not announcing school closures last week is one of the more recent ones.
Meanwhile my grandchildren in Bangkok, where things have flared up again, are on-line again next week.
All that will happen is that media and other trolls will have another bone to chew on; we don't need that. This is far better than hostages to fortune offered previously.
AFAIK the distribution is being organised by the NHS and the suppliers, not the Govt directly, and it is better they do not help politicise something that is better off not being political - getting involved only when asked by the professionals.
He is constantly posting on Facebook about how all restrictions should be ended, and posting either false or misleading statistics about how it really isn't that bad.
He completely misses the point that many statistics aren't being submitted at the moment, and the fact that these deaths and hospitalisations are WITH current restrictions, no doubt assuming they'd somehow would stay the same if everyone was just 'let out' again.
He's mostly lost it, but that's what watching crap videos on YouTube will do to you.
https://www.goodsamapp.org/NHSvolunteerresponders
Vaccination is going to be a bit like the testing with the press and public perplexed that the target is not met on day one, but it got there in the end and has continued ramping up to levels which are quite extraordinary. PCR testing capacity is now 720,000 test per day.
From a national perspective, what is more useful, getting our kids to learn in a highly managed and controlled environment that they have already experienced many years of, or learning in a different environment for a couple of months that is more akin to how the workplace will be for many when they leave school?
https://tinyurl.com/yac2cxr5
(It's The Hootsmon just in case you're sensibly fastidious about these things)
https://twitter.com/LabourRichard/status/1336351922870231047
And watching them moaning about the colossal damage they have all done.
362. I accept that oppression as a bar to extradition requires a high threshold. I also accept that there is a strong public interest in giving effect to treaty obligations and that this is an important factor to have in mind. However, I am satisfied that, in these harsh conditions, Mr. Assange’s mental health would deteriorate causing him to commit suicide with the “single minded determination” of his autism spectrum disorder.
363. I find that the mental condition of Mr. Assange is such that it would be oppressive to extradite him to the United States of America.
Since the District Judge found for the USA on most of the points of law - tricky to see how they can appeal this.
It’s weird that Blair suddenly seems like the best potential PM, saying the wisest things. Much better than Starmer. And I am no fan of Blair
Speaking on a visit to a London hospital, the Prime Minister said: "It's very important to understand that back in March, one of the things I look back on with the greatest misgivings was the closure of primary schools because it's so important for young people to get an education.
"That's why closing primary schools is, for all of us, a last resort. That's why we are looking at everything else we can possibly do to avoid that.
"Here are some more lines from Boris Johnson’s interview for broadcasters at Chase Farm Hospital in north London this morning.
Johnson claimed that teachers were at no more risk of getting coronavirus than anyone else. He said:
The risk to teachers, and of course we will do everything we can to protect teachers, but the risk to teachers is no greater than it is to anyone else. The reasons for wanting to keep schools open I think are very, very powerful"
https://www.cnet.com/news/the-mandalorian-is-the-most-pirated-tv-show-of-2020/
They’re young, fit, smart, and the least likely to get ill. It will also allow them to socialise and flirt, at least a bit. So they don’t go mad. Win win.
If you want to oppose lockdowns, then do the work: Run the numbers. I’m sure you can do that, can’t you? If it’s so obvious to you that lockdowns don’t work & aren’t worth the cost, then the numbers must be very clear.
In truth its all about the Baby Yoda.
You are right that the trend in many of these seats is against Labour anyway - eg mining seats are transforming from industrial to rural areas - with plenty of newcomers including some white flight from Northern cities who are not going to be Labour voters. Labour doesn't need to win all of these seats, and won't even in a landslide win.
The country's health ministry has asked an independent vaccination commission for its opinion on administering the second shot later than 42 days after the first.
Did I get that right?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/04/iran-resumes-enriching-uranium-breach-nuclear-deal
I wonder how he managed to leave his various wives and other paramours? Or did they discover his peccadillos and leave him?
Fieldwork before Christmas
But he hasn't been. People like Grant Shapps (whom I don't respect because of his history) has done a cracking job in these sessions and when interviewed in the media.
In the meantime, think tanks can think, and fringe politicians can keep the flame alive. Not dignified, and not much fun for the impatient, but it is the only way for now.
My father (late 80s) has been invited today. Local football stadium.
This sort of thing?
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1346063563450888192
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1346063650654736389
Unfortunately that's a consequence of the media ramping up winter health crises every year.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/03/health/coronavirus-vaccine-doses.html
At the moment, it looks like a little over 40,000 cases declared against specimen date seems to equate to about 3000 hospitalisations per day. Using Malmesbury's figures for proportion of hospitalisation per age category, the long-running percentage of hospitalisations that die (27.8% in a scarily reliable average during the second wave) and the figures for the proportion of each age band that make up the deaths, and assuming it will scale up as the declared cases scale up, you get this table:
All laden with assumptions, of course (such as: are we catching a constant fraction of the true cases in our reported cases?)
We can then assume that deaths per age band will rise if hospital assistance isn't available, towards the hospitalised numbers (This is a more fraught assumption. On the one hand, not all deaths from covid are in hospital. On the other, not everyone hospitalised would die without help, although we do know they were hospitalised for a reason. I'd suspect the number would go from around 100% of the hospitalised figures at the eldest end of the scale to a distinctly smaller fraction at the bottom - although I doubt it would ever go much below a quarter, given that around a sixth of those children hospitalised need ICU, and we'd assume everyone who needs intensive care is a goner without support. That would leave as many as 90% of hospitalised children who didn't need ICU recovering without any support, which would seem optimistic, so that would be a top end)
We can use a rough rule of thumb that 1500 hospitalisations per day can be reliably coped with (when they reach saturation), as under 1500 has seen hospital populations descending and over 1500 has seen them climbing. Rough rule of thumb.
Assume triage is done to prioritise the youngest. Count upwards on the hospitalisations numbers on the daily row until you get to 1500. Every row above that has deaths actually tending towards hospitalisation numbers rather than actual deaths. (Further source of error: this will not be uniform over the country. Some areas might need to triage down to a third or quarter; others may not need to triage at all)
Make whatever assumptions you see fit on vaccination numbers, counting down. If you assume all over 85s are protected, remove this row. All over 75s, do the same. And so on. (Not all will be protected - maybe around 70%, but we're talking rough rule of thumb)
The scary thing is - if we level out at 40,000 cases reported per day, AND somehow the hospitals don't oversaturate, we're still looking at around 25,000 deaths in January.
Remember that the deaths column on the table as it stands is on the assumption that the hospitals don't overload. The hospitalisations figure would show the absolute maximum if all hospitals turned everyone away (not happening).
That done, I dont care if the US gets him or not depending what our law allows .