He said this before the negotiations had started. After they had, he found out the ridiculous demands the EU were putting on membership. Hard to get worked up about that to be honest.
The important point is that people round the World know he's a liar, and are pointing it out.
And still deal with him, because that's life and politics. Mr Bildt was a Prime Minister, I'm sure he had to deal with other leaders who were liars, at home or abroad, in his time. If you want to argue Boris is egregiously bad, fine, but having an online orgasm every time a foreign politician shows they dislike him is a little over the top.
It's too exhausing for a start.
And expensive. Still, at least the people with jobs in keyboard factories are happy with his output.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
And misogyny too. You need to watch your wording.
So let me get this straight. It's okay to call Johnson a c***, but not okay to call Sturgeon a woman?
Me?! I always (almost) call him Mr Johnson, which is a sight more than most people on PB.
Sorry, I didn't mean to accuse you directly. Just the general tone of debate when it comes to Johnson on here.
Our Scottish Nationalist posters are very upset and sensitive on here today.
That should tell us a lot.
It's just another Saturday and they're being oppressed again by the Imperialist English?
If you want to argue Boris is egregiously bad, fine, but having an online orgasm every time a foreign politician shows they dislike him is a little over the top.
All I did was post the tweet.
You guys seem to be the ones "worked up" about it...
You have admitted in the past you post specific tweets to make a point, you aren't typically just randomly posting interesting things. And you know perfectly well that when someone criticises Boris you post such things very eagerly, with relish and enjoyment.
Which is fine, I like your posting tweets of things. But don't insult everyone's intelligence by pretending, in this instance, that you don't agree with it's point absolutely. Not least because in a follow up to RobD you made clear why you posted it, because 'The important point is that people round the World know he's a liar, and are pointing it out'.
So no, you didn't just 'post the tweet', you explained your interpretation of the tweet and why it was significant. Which is good. Better than simply posting it in fact. But shows it would be a lie to claim that you did not have a specific point to make by posting the tweet. You had a point, and you made it.
I've insulted Boris repeatedly, I even said people should consider voting for Corbyn, who I loathe, so we could get a second referendum by defeating Boris, so I don't even know who you mean by 'you guys' as though there is some pro-Boris agenda at work here. There really isn't.
My point was that people thinking Boris is a liar, which he often is, is not as significant or unique a situation as you think it is. It has nothing to do with getting worked up about it, it's that you get overexcited by mundanities.
Disagree with that if you like, but please don't suggest you didn't have a point to make, as you did. You told us what the point was in fact. So people responding, for any reason, is not getting worked up by a tweet, it is responding to your point, whether or not you were explicit in your initial posting.
The assumption you posted it to point out Boris is a liar was responded to, and you then confirmed that was indeed your point. So why pretend now that is not what you were doing?
It's like you're embarrassed you were making a point, not just posting a tweet. Don't be.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
Because grievance is their main weapon and they'll keep using it because it works. Realpolitik.
Doesn't mean she isn't right.
Ah, but the more important fact is that it doesn't matter whether she's right or not. She could just as easily claim that the Evil Tories were planning to tow the entire Scottish fishing fleet out to sea and burn it in one massive floating bonfire. With all the fishermen tied up onboard. And be believed.
We are well past the point at which reality has any meaning to any argument involving independence, which is essentially any political argument that takes place in Scotland. That will continue until there is independence. The game's up, and the Minister for the Union knows it. That's why the next referendum is coming, but not until he's out of the way.
Scottish secession is the hemlock that the next (minority) Labour Government is going to be forced to drink.
This Tory government will never allow a legal indyref2, Starmer Labour might but only as part of a Federal UK with devomax for Holyrood and regional assemblies for England
Any future Labour Government is highly likely to be in a significant Parliamentary minority and beholden to the SNP for votes. The price of the votes will be an independence referendum, which Labour will either have to concede or go back to the country again.
We should not be fooled into thinking that a Hung Parliament with the SNP controlling the balance of power would allow Labour to issue ultimatums to them, just because the SNP cannot back the Tories instead. They could back Labour in a vote of confidence but wreck a Labour administration by sinking its legislative program one bill at a time.
Labour returns as largest party in the Commons, Labour loses indyref 2, Labour Government destroyed, English Tories return to power stronger than before. It's the horrible fate that Starmer, or one of his successors, cannot ultimately avoid.
I agree it is perfectly possible that Starmer if he does become PM after 2024 only does so with the backing of SNP MPs, if he then allows indyref2 and loses it the Tories could then return to power having won a majority in England and Wales and NI but not in the UK including Scotland once Scottish MPs leave the Commons without the need for another general election.
However a Starmer premiership would likely see a shift to a softer Brexit Deal and devomax for Holyrood making a Yes vote less likely anyway
The tell tale signs this is complete bullshit are:
(1) It's obviously not true (2) There's no actual link to a news article, just a photoshopped image (3) There are 666 comments (4) The author of the piece is "Gordon Hangman"
Oh yeah, and the date and time when the story was allegedly published had not actually happened yet when the Tweet was posted.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
Because grievance is their main weapon and they'll keep using it because it works. Realpolitik.
Doesn't mean she isn't right.
Ah, but the more important fact is that it doesn't matter whether she's right or not. She could just as easily claim that the Evil Tories were planning to tow the entire Scottish fishing fleet out to sea and burn it in one massive floating bonfire. With all the fishermen tied up onboard. And be believed.
We are well past the point at which reality has any meaning to any argument involving independence, which is essentially any political argument that takes place in Scotland. That will continue until there is independence. The game's up, and the Minister for the Union knows it. That's why the next referendum is coming, but not until he's out of the way.
Scottish secession is the hemlock that the next (minority) Labour Government is going to be forced to drink.
This Tory government will never allow a legal indyref2, Starmer Labour might but only as part of a Federal UK with devomax for Holyrood and regional assemblies for England
Any future Labour Government is highly likely to be in a significant Parliamentary minority and beholden to the SNP for votes. The price of the votes will be an independence referendum, which Labour will either have to concede or go back to the country again.
We should not be fooled into thinking that a Hung Parliament with the SNP controlling the balance of power would allow Labour to issue ultimatums to them, just because the SNP cannot back the Tories instead. They could back Labour in a vote of confidence but wreck a Labour administration by sinking its legislative program one bill at a time.
Labour returns as largest party in the Commons, Labour loses indyref 2, Labour Government destroyed, English Tories return to power stronger than before. It's the horrible fate that Starmer, or one of his successors, cannot ultimately avoid.
The SNP wouldn't even have to vote against: simply follow their preexisting doctrine, which predated EVEL of abstainijng on England only questions, except where there is some moral principle (e.g. baby-eating).
EVEL was, presumably, really targeted at Labour and the LDs, on that logic. Which is an interesting interpretation of Tory party policy in [edit] 2014 of course - not 2017, silly me. As if they saw this coming.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
Because grievance is their main weapon and they'll keep using it because it works. Realpolitik.
Doesn't mean she isn't right.
Ah, but the more important fact is that it doesn't matter whether she's right or not. She could just as easily claim that the Evil Tories were planning to tow the entire Scottish fishing fleet out to sea and burn it in one massive floating bonfire. With all the fishermen tied up onboard. And be believed.
We are well past the point at which reality has any meaning to any argument involving independence, which is essentially any political argument that takes place in Scotland. That will continue until there is independence. The game's up, and the Minister for the Union knows it. That's why the next referendum is coming, but not until he's out of the way.
Scottish secession is the hemlock that the next (minority) Labour Government is going to be forced to drink.
I think that's unreallistically pessimistic. What I want to see now is a vision of what the UK is, and should aspire to be, including how its various parts interrelate, and how it respects and promotes the interests of the home nations. If that isn't there, what's the point of fighting nationalism anyway?
Whether or not they can win without that segment of the population, and whatever peripheral negatives might possibly exist if there is an overemphasis of that segment, if I were them, here and in the USA, I'd be concerned at just how stark that division is. Even if colleges were merely propaganda centres I'd be worried that it was so effective.
The tell tale signs this is complete bullshit are:
(1) It's obviously not true (2) There's no actual link to a news article, just a photoshopped image (3) There are 666 comments (4) The author of the piece is "Gordon Hangman"
Oh yeah, and the date and time when the story was allegedly published had not actually happened yet when the Tweet was posted.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
Re the LibDems, they have to vote against the deal.
The Conservative and Labour Party have monopolised the centre on this. They can't outflank UKIP or the Tory Right. They will probably make EEA their future policy, and they want to be in the position to say "well, of course we voted against the deal because we wanted EEA." That's a hell of a lot easier message to sell than "of course, we voted for the Deal because really we were voting against No Deal, and actually we want EEA."
Especially as there is no actual risk of No Deal happening.
He said this before the negotiations had started. After they had, he found out the ridiculous demands the EU were putting on membership. Hard to get worked up about that to be honest.
The important point is that people round the World know he's a liar, and are pointing it out.
And still deal with him, because that's life and politics. Mr Bildt was a Prime Minister, I'm sure he had to deal with other leaders who were liars, at home or abroad, in his time. If you want to argue Boris is egregiously bad, fine, but having an online orgasm every time a foreign politician shows they dislike him is a little over the top.
It's too exhausing for a start.
And expensive. Still, at least the people with jobs in keyboard factories are happy with his output.
I honestly don't want to criticise Scott as I like his tweet posting, and that people really dislike Boris is not insignificant, even though I would disagree on just how significant it is, so absolutely let's see it.
I just find it weird that the purpose behind it - occasionally ambiguous, but in this instance demonstrated by subsequent actual commentary confirming its purpose - should be denied.
There's no need for anyone to be coy about their purposes among the anonymous and pseudonymous.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
Re the LibDems, they have to vote against the deal.
The Conservative and Labour Party have monopolised the centre on this. They can't outflank UKIP or the Tory Right. They will probably make EEA their future policy, and they want to be in the position to say "well, of course we voted against the deal because we wanted EEA." That's a hell of a lot easier message to sell than "of course, we voted for the Deal because really we were voting against No Deal, and actually we want EEA."
Especially as there is no actual risk of No Deal happening.
Plus given every single current LD held constituency voted Remain there is nothing for them to lose unlike the Tories and Labour from being the party of diehard Remainers at Westminster anyway
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
You mean, they are supposed to be grateful for a Brexit for which they didn't vote and which comprises a turd in a well-fired bap rather than 100% turd? I don't think you realise how unconvincing your argument is.
Re the LibDems, they have to vote against the deal.
The Conservative and Labour Party have monopolised the centre on this. They can't outflank UKIP or the Tory Right. They will probably make EEA their future policy, and they want to be in the position to say "well, of course we voted against the deal because we wanted EEA." That's a hell of a lot easier message to sell than "of course, we voted for the Deal because really we were voting against No Deal, and actually we want EEA."
Especially as there is no actual risk of No Deal happening.
To get you to vote LD...
What'd it take - what are the good things. Voting against the deal just looks like daft marginalism.
Re the LibDems, they have to vote against the deal.
The Conservative and Labour Party have monopolised the centre on this. They can't outflank UKIP or the Tory Right. They will probably make EEA their future policy, and they want to be in the position to say "well, of course we voted against the deal because we wanted EEA." That's a hell of a lot easier message to sell than "of course, we voted for the Deal because really we were voting against No Deal, and actually we want EEA."
Especially as there is no actual risk of No Deal happening.
Plus given every single current LD held constituency voted Remain there is nothing for them to lose unlike the Tories and Labour from being the party of diehard Remainers at Westminster anyway
Very good point. I doubt if St Albans, Twickenham or Richmond were particularly close, either.
I hope that OGH is not affected by the flooding near Bedford. I know the area quite well and have great sympathy for those suffering.
Having dealt with both river and sea flooding over years through my business before I retired the distress and destruction is utterly appalling for those involved and can take many months to remedy
The tell tale signs this is complete bullshit are:
(1) It's obviously not true (2) There's no actual link to a news article, just a photoshopped image (3) There are 666 comments (4) The author of the piece is "Gordon Hangman"
Oh yeah, and the date and time when the story was allegedly published had not actually happened yet when the Tweet was posted.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
4,860 out of 5.5m is less than 0.1%.
Tories, saying things are much bigger than they are forever and a day.
Re the LibDems, they have to vote against the deal.
The Conservative and Labour Party have monopolised the centre on this. They can't outflank UKIP or the Tory Right. They will probably make EEA their future policy, and they want to be in the position to say "well, of course we voted against the deal because we wanted EEA." That's a hell of a lot easier message to sell than "of course, we voted for the Deal because really we were voting against No Deal, and actually we want EEA."
Especially as there is no actual risk of No Deal happening.
Plus given every single current LD held constituency voted Remain there is nothing for them to lose unlike the Tories and Labour from being the party of diehard Remainers at Westminster anyway
Very good point. I doubt if St Albans, Twickenham or Richmond were particularly close, either.
Good news for Tories taking on the LDs in Leave heavy Epping in the local elections next year however
LibDems backing a second referendum a year ago, now No Deal?
Brexit has made for strange politics.
I really don't understand why the LDs should be quite so bad.
What happened to the middle-class responsible nice people? Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams, not so much David Owen though
The modern politician who perhaps seems most like them is Nandy. I can't see her seeking them out though.
Just stupid from Davey if he votes against.
Maybe he thinks that the deal is a bad deal for the UK. That would be a sensible reason to vote against it.
It gives the EU what it needs in terms of access for manufacturing but sells out the UK service sector.
Compared to No Deal?
Ah, the old would you like to be poisoned or would you prefer to be shot argument? I assume that Davy would vote against no deal as well.
The question before MPs is fairly simple, do you agree this is a good deal or not. Given the usual Tory approach he is in an impossible situation anyway. If he votes for it in years to come his support will be thrown in his face as it goes badly. If he votes against then he will perversely described as being in favour of a no deal. It is the typical Tory approach of giving people two bad choices and then bullying them into supporting the least worst.
It is a game that I think he is sensible not to play. If you think the deal is bad vote against it, if you think it is good support it. That way, at least we know where people stand.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
4,860 out of 5.5m is less than 0.1%.
Probably 3x as many on the fish processing jobs onshore. I still think that the condition for fishing in our waters should be landing your fish in a UK port.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
4,860 out of 5.5m is less than 0.1%.
Tories, saying things are much bigger than they are forever and a day.
As above, the only question here is whether Brexiter MPs are prepared to re-engage in the real political world and embrace this deal as something to champion and take forward (as, to his credit, Farage has realised) - or whether they are going to underline the essential futility of their ideological purity and posture and pose by abstaining or opposing the government deal.
Wise words from your posts this afternoon.
My advice would be magnanimity and to go back to sober, sensible good Government.
Make Conservatives the safe choice and Labour the risky/disruptive one in 2024 again.
Let Labour point the way forward once again.
I will be writing about what Labour needs to do to win again in the weeks to come.
You won't like all of it.
It is not in their control to win it. If Brexit is a success, the govt gets re-elected easily. If its average, the govt probably still get re-elected but it might be a hung parliament. If its a mess, it will likely be a hung parliament given Starmer will neither inspire nor give the govt Corbyns open goals.
I wrote an article a few weeks about the Fall of the West. The importance of stable nations, that form its building blocks, was a key part of it.
Jonathan's first reaction was to sneer at that. He then mentioned a few institutions he liked (as a man of the Left) like the NHS, BBC, and Unions - and I responded positively - but he ignored that, and followed up with nothing but a deafening silence.
He's an ex-Labour parliamentary candidate. And that is the problem Labour has.
They will forever be confined to university towns and metropolitan cities until they rediscover their patriotism.
Top tip, never confuse a lack of reply for deliberate silence. Like many I dip in and out of here and no doubt miss much. I would be very happy to reply to any point, but sometimes the real world beckons.
Ok, but your original post wasn't very friendly nor generous.
I think it touched a nerve with you, which I find interesting of itself.
There's lots in English, and British, reformist and radical history to be proud of for the Left, as well as in our literature and broader culture. Not to mention our absurdly beautiful country itself.
Why not find it, love it, and champion it?
There's nothing unpatriotic in condemning Johnson for his role in the destruction of the country we love. Tories would do well to remember that he is hacking away at the foundation of this 'stable nation'.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
And misogyny too. You need to watch your wording.
So let me get this straight. It's okay to call Johnson a c***, but not okay to call Sturgeon a woman?
Me?! I always (almost) call him Mr Johnson, which is a sight more than most people on PB.
Sorry, I didn't mean to accuse you directly. Just the general tone of debate when it comes to Johnson on here.
Our Scottish Nationalist posters are very upset and sensitive on here today.
That should tell us a lot.
Always a bit wounding when the touchiest, most thin skinned poster on PB by some distance describes us as upset and sensitive.
Yeah. Unionist patriotism flagwavingly wonderful and compulsory, Scottish patriotism unacceptable.
If I were Scots, I would vote independence 100%. These Brexiteer jingos make me embarrassed* to be British.
"Though of course, being embarrassed and offended by my countrymen shows what an authentic Brit I am! 🤣
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
4,860 out of 5.5m is less than 0.1%.
Probably 3x as many on the fish processing jobs onshore. I still think that the condition for fishing in our waters should be landing your fish in a UK port.
I'm genuinely surprised that that hasn't happened. Yet more Tory betrayal of the fishing industry.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
- on December 20th, 521,594 people had received their first jab - 366,715 of those were over 80 - So 70% - the number vaccinated now stands at over 800k - so assuming the proportion holds, 560k over 80s - There are 3.2 million over 80s in the UK - They made up 54% of the death toll of COVID - for 17.5% of the over 80s have received their first shot - Estimates for the protection from the first shot range from 50-70%
So if the efficacy is 50% I make it that would mean a 4.7% drop in the fatality rate. Already.
6.6% if it is 70% effective on the first shot.
Indeed. But sadly we won't see the effect for at least a month, given time for immunity to happen, then not get infected when they would have, then not die when they would have. January is going to be grim, I think.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
4,860 out of 5.5m is less than 0.1%.
Probably 3x as many on the fish processing jobs onshore. I still think that the condition for fishing in our waters should be landing your fish in a UK port.
That's massively more important for overall jobs. You would create more work and more money for the Exchequor by auctioning all quotas to whoever (anywhere) wants to buy them, but with the requirement to land fish in the UK.
We haven't really thought about what it is, exactly, we want our fishing policy to achieve.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
4,860 out of 5.5m is less than 0.1%.
Emphasising the point even more
So your party lied and promised to less than 0.1% of the Scots at the samne time as it risked doing even more damage to the livelihood and wealth of the 99.9% for the same fish?
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
Whether or not they can win without that segment of the population, and whatever peripheral negatives might possibly exist if there is an overemphasis of that segment, if I were them, here and in the USA, I'd be concerned at just how stark that division is. Even if colleges were merely propaganda centres I'd be worried that it was so effective.
Is it education or age? The expansion of HE in the US isn't as large as in the UK, but the sample skews increasingly young as you get closer to now.
By hitching a ride on a very specific social narrative, conservatives on both sides of the Atlantic have been able to make electoral hay in recent years. But they're also hitched to a dying worldview.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
1%? There are 50k fishermen in Scotland?
Do you have any source for that?
I'd have guessed 10k.
Already answered by people proving HYUFD is talking barely informed bollocks about Scotland. Again.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
1%? There are 50k fishermen in Scotland?
Do you have any source for that?
I'd have guessed 10k.
Already answered by people proving HYUFD is talking barely informed bollocks about Scotland. Again.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
1%? There are 50k fishermen in Scotland?
Do you have any source for that?
I'd have guessed 10k.
Already answered by people proving HYUFD is talking barely informed bollocks about Scotland. Again.
'Barely' slightly unfortunate in that conjunction ...
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
1%? There are 50k fishermen in Scotland?
Do you have any source for that?
I'd have guessed 10k.
In 2016 - 4,832 fishermen were employed on Scottish based vessels representing 0.2% of the workforce
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
1%? There are 50k fishermen in Scotland?
Do you have any source for that?
I'd have guessed 10k.
In 2016 - 4,832 fishermen were employed on Scottish based vessels representing 0.2% of the workforce
Sudden thought: did it say if they are actually Scottish? The bigger boats do employ third country folk (e.g. Filipinos) to a n [edit] surprising degree. Maybe not a lot, but still more than I'd expected.
Edit: I'm not sure if they actually live ashore at all. Or what their tax situation is.
Re the LibDems, they have to vote against the deal.
The Conservative and Labour Party have monopolised the centre on this. They can't outflank UKIP or the Tory Right. They will probably make EEA their future policy, and they want to be in the position to say "well, of course we voted against the deal because we wanted EEA." That's a hell of a lot easier message to sell than "of course, we voted for the Deal because really we were voting against No Deal, and actually we want EEA."
Especially as there is no actual risk of No Deal happening.
To get you to vote LD...
What'd it take - what are the good things. Voting against the deal just looks like daft marginalism.
Given that the polls are showing the majority think Brexit is a mistake perhaps 'daft marginalisation' is a bit excessive.
This deal gives the EU all it wants for manufacturing but sells the UK service sector out. It takes away rights and gives us practically nothing in return.
Politically I think it is a fair gamble for the LDs. They can, if Brexit goes badly, say that they always thought it was a bad idea and the actual deal is a bad deal. At that stage no one will be worried that no deal might have been worse and even if they do I suspect the LDs would contest that was not the responsibility of their 11 MPs.
The tell tale signs this is complete bullshit are:
(1) It's obviously not true (2) There's no actual link to a news article, just a photoshopped image (3) There are 666 comments (4) The author of the piece is "Gordon Hangman"
Oh yeah, and the date and time when the story was allegedly published had not actually happened yet when the Tweet was posted.
Well, the story may be false, but what's matters is what it teaches us about Priti Patel.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
4,860 out of 5.5m is less than 0.1%.
Emphasising the point even more
So your party lied and promised to less than 0.1% of the Scots at the samne time as it risked doing even more damage to the livelihood and wealth of the 99.9% for the same fish?
No my party delivered increasing control of Scottish fishing waters over the next 5 years leading to full control by 2027 while the SNP left Scottish fishermen to hang refusing to ask for even 1 extra fish and handing Scottish catch still over to the EU.
It also delivered a Canada style trade deal with the EU 44% of Scots would be happy with with only 29% unhappy according to Yougov
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
1%? There are 50k fishermen in Scotland?
Do you have any source for that?
I'd have guessed 10k.
In 2016 - 4,832 fishermen were employed on Scottish based vessels representing 0.2% of the workforce
Thanks BigG
Let's hope a few more find opportunity.
(I hadn't realised until very recently that part of the awkwardness about these discussions was just that our fishermen sold the rights)
LibDems backing a second referendum a year ago, now No Deal?
Brexit has made for strange politics.
I really don't understand why the LDs should be quite so bad.
What happened to the middle-class responsible nice people? Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams, not so much David Owen though
The modern politician who perhaps seems most like them is Nandy. I can't see her seeking them out though.
Just stupid from Davey if he votes against.
Maybe he thinks that the deal is a bad deal for the UK. That would be a sensible reason to vote against it.
It gives the EU what it needs in terms of access for manufacturing but sells out the UK service sector.
Compared to No Deal?
Ah, the old would you like to be poisoned or would you prefer to be shot argument? I assume that Davy would vote against no deal as well.
The question before MPs is fairly simple, do you agree this is a good deal or not. Given the usual Tory approach he is in an impossible situation anyway. If he votes for it in years to come his support will be thrown in his face as it goes badly. If he votes against then he will perversely described as being in favour of a no deal. It is the typical Tory approach of giving people two bad choices and then bullying them into supporting the least worst.
It is a game that I think he is sensible not to play. If you think the deal is bad vote against it, if you think it is good support it. That way, at least we know where people stand.
There is a certain clarity in voting against what happens, if you anticipate it won’t turn out well and intend to oppose it.
Labour faces the greater challenge, having to explain, “ yes, well I know we are the opposition and all, but we voted in favour of what happened, not because we wanted it to happen, oh no, but because had we not voted for what happened, something else might have happened which we wanted even less than what happened, so we voted for what we didn’t want to happen to avoid what would otherwise have happened from happening. But we oppose it all the same, just not quite as much as we would have opposed the other thing.”
- on December 20th, 521,594 people had received their first jab - 366,715 of those were over 80 - So 70% - the number vaccinated now stands at over 800k - so assuming the proportion holds, 560k over 80s - There are 3.2 million over 80s in the UK - They made up 54% of the death toll of COVID - for 17.5% of the over 80s have received their first shot - Estimates for the protection from the first shot range from 50-70%
So if the efficacy is 50% I make it that would mean a 4.7% drop in the fatality rate. Already.
6.6% if it is 70% effective on the first shot.
Indeed. But sadly we won't see the effect for at least a month, given time for immunity to happen, then not get infected when they would have, then not die when they would have. January is going to be grim, I think.
--AS
That being said... I would have thought that the proportion of vaccines going to the over 80s would rise, and the vaccination of doctors and care home workers will also lower the likelihood of people in hospitals or carehomes becoming sick.
January may well be grim for deaths, but I would hope that by the second half of the month, the new hospitalisations number will be coming down meaningfully.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
4,860 out of 5.5m is less than 0.1%.
Emphasising the point even more
So your party lied and promised to less than 0.1% of the Scots at the samne time as it risked doing even more damage to the livelihood and wealth of the 99.9% for the same fish?
No my party delivered increasing control of Scottish fishing waters over the next 5 years leading to full control by 2027 while the SNP left Scottish fishermen to hang refusing to ask for even 1 extra fish and handing Scottish catch still over to the EU.
It also delivered a Canada style trade deal with the EU 44% of Scots think would be happy with with only 29% unhappy according to Yougov
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
4,860 out of 5.5m is less than 0.1%.
Emphasising the point even more
So your party lied and promised to less than 0.1% of the Scots at the samne time as it risked doing even more damage to the livelihood and wealth of the 99.9% for the same fish?
No my party delivered increasing control of Scottish fishing waters over the next 5 years leading to full control by 2027 while the SNP left Scottish fishermen to hang refusing to ask for even 1 extra fish and handing Scottish catch still over to the EU.
It also delivered a Canada style trade deal with the EU 44% of Scots think would be happy with with only 29% unhappy according to Yougov
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
1%? There are 50k fishermen in Scotland?
Do you have any source for that?
I'd have guessed 10k.
In 2016 - 4,832 fishermen were employed on Scottish based vessels representing 0.2% of the workforce
Sudden thought: did it say if they are actually Scottish? The bigger boats do employ third country folk (e.g. Filipinos) to a n [edit] surprising degree. Maybe not a lot, but still more than I'd expected.
Edit: I'm not sure if they actually live ashore at all. Or what their tax situation is.
Yeah, the truth is that British folk don't want to work the boats or gut fish in Grimsby. I don't blame them.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
1%? There are 50k fishermen in Scotland?
Do you have any source for that?
I'd have guessed 10k.
In 2016 - 4,832 fishermen were employed on Scottish based vessels representing 0.2% of the workforce
Sudden thought: did it say if they are actually Scottish? The bigger boats do employ third country folk (e.g. Filipinos) to a n [edit] surprising degree. Maybe not a lot, but still more than I'd expected.
Edit: I'm not sure if they actually live ashore at all. Or what their tax situation is.
I assume if they are Scottish based vessels then the crews mainly live in Scotland
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
1%? There are 50k fishermen in Scotland?
Do you have any source for that?
I'd have guessed 10k.
In 2016 - 4,832 fishermen were employed on Scottish based vessels representing 0.2% of the workforce
Sudden thought: did it say if they are actually Scottish? The bigger boats do employ third country folk (e.g. Filipinos) to a n [edit] surprising degree. Maybe not a lot, but still more than I'd expected.
Edit: I'm not sure if they actually live ashore at all. Or what their tax situation is.
Yeah, the truth is that British folk don't want to work the boats or gut fish in Grimsby. I don't blame them.
Fewer Brits rely on the fishing industry for employment than on Harrods. Or House of Fraser. Or pretty much any high street retail name most people have heard of.
Apologies if this is very old news, but is it true that the Oxford/AZN vaccine is a 'Coronavirus' vaccine rather than a 'Covid-19' vaccine, making it efficacious against all mutations and indeed all coronaviruses?
Just seen that Daniel hannan has been made a Lord. He's lost his job as an MEP thanks to his own efforts is reasonably responsible for us ending up in this shambolic mess and is rewarded with a peerage. Is there no end to this governments gifts for shits?
What will happen to SW Lib Dem voters now Brexit is done? Any chance they reclaim their former heartlands now?
I am not an expert on the Lib Dems!
No, LD heartlands are now SW London, West Oxford and West Edinburgh not the SW of England
It will depend how badly the sell out of British fishermen goes down. I would expect large parts of the SW to feel that they have been used by the government. The SW will be badly damaged by brexit and the failure to get the single benefit we were told we would get is unlikely to go down well.
I think that there is a misconception that people wanted Brexit for the sake of it. They wanted Brexit because they were told it would make their life better. If life in the SW does not improve the Tories are likely to be in trouble.
- on December 20th, 521,594 people had received their first jab - 366,715 of those were over 80 - So 70% - the number vaccinated now stands at over 800k - so assuming the proportion holds, 560k over 80s - There are 3.2 million over 80s in the UK - They made up 54% of the death toll of COVID - for 17.5% of the over 80s have received their first shot - Estimates for the protection from the first shot range from 50-70%
So if the efficacy is 50% I make it that would mean a 4.7% drop in the fatality rate. Already.
6.6% if it is 70% effective on the first shot.
Indeed. But sadly we won't see the effect for at least a month, given time for immunity to happen, then not get infected when they would have, then not die when they would have. January is going to be grim, I think.
--AS
That being said... I would have thought that the proportion of vaccines going to the over 80s would rise, and the vaccination of doctors and care home workers will also lower the likelihood of people in hospitals or carehomes becoming sick.
January may well be grim for deaths, but I would hope that by the second half of the month, the new hospitalisations number will be coming down meaningfully.
I'm not sure I agree. I don't know the demographic of those in hospital, but those in intensive care are much younger than those who die: a median age of around 60. This suggests that vaccinating over 80s wouldn't make a huge difference to hospitalizations through those people not catching it, even if older patients were spending longer in hospital. For the same reason it may not make a lot of difference to hospitalizations to vaccinate the care home workers. Do you think that arithmetic is wrong?
I think we're relying on Tier 4 to get on top of hospitalizations, until a wider group has been vaccinated. Also we need to get on top of hospital-acquired COVID, which is an increasing problem. I wonder if this is because the previous infection controls were adequate to suppressing the old variant, but not the new. (Plus of course the raw numbers of COVID infected in hospital).
Just seen that Daniel hannan has been made a Lord. He's lost his job as MEP is reasonably responsible for us ending up in this shambolic mess and is rewarded with a peerage. Is there no end to this governments gifts for shits?
Well, if Boris's brother and others can be made lords, so can the Downing Street Cat, a la Caligula.
Apologies if this is very old news, but is it true that the Oxford/AZN vaccine is a 'Coronavirus' vaccine rather than a 'Covid-19' vaccine, making it efficacious against all mutations and indeed all coronaviruses?
Re the LibDems, they have to vote against the deal.
The Conservative and Labour Party have monopolised the centre on this. They can't outflank UKIP or the Tory Right. They will probably make EEA their future policy, and they want to be in the position to say "well, of course we voted against the deal because we wanted EEA." That's a hell of a lot easier message to sell than "of course, we voted for the Deal because really we were voting against No Deal, and actually we want EEA."
Especially as there is no actual risk of No Deal happening.
Plus given every single current LD held constituency voted Remain there is nothing for them to lose unlike the Tories and Labour from being the party of diehard Remainers at Westminster anyway
I think i disagree. There are plenty of people* who voted Remain who now accept we are leaving and just want to move on. And are thoroughly relieved that no deal has been averted, and at least see the deal (even if imperfect) as a basis to build in future. And who will not forever want to have appeals to their vote based on their views on Brexit. And will be far more willing to respond positively to a LibDem party that offers solutions going forward based on the world as it is rather than harking back to a world that is gone. They need to move on.
Of course it depends whether they have any ambition of returning to the sort of national relevance that they had in 2009. Or just want to remain as a very minor party seeing getting 20 seats as a success.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
1%? There are 50k fishermen in Scotland?
Do you have any source for that?
I'd have guessed 10k.
In 2016 - 4,832 fishermen were employed on Scottish based vessels representing 0.2% of the workforce
Sudden thought: did it say if they are actually Scottish? The bigger boats do employ third country folk (e.g. Filipinos) to a n [edit] surprising degree. Maybe not a lot, but still more than I'd expected.
Edit: I'm not sure if they actually live ashore at all. Or what their tax situation is.
Yeah, the truth is that British folk don't want to work the boats or gut fish in Grimsby. I don't blame them.
I think self identifying Brexiteers should commit to a month a year in a fish processing plant at an appropriate wage for the haunless and glaikit, bit like the old Scottish tattie holidays.
LibDems backing a second referendum a year ago, now No Deal?
Brexit has made for strange politics.
I really don't understand why the LDs should be quite so bad.
What happened to the middle-class responsible nice people? Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams, not so much David Owen though
The modern politician who perhaps seems most like them is Nandy. I can't see her seeking them out though.
Just stupid from Davey if he votes against.
Maybe he thinks that the deal is a bad deal for the UK. That would be a sensible reason to vote against it.
It gives the EU what it needs in terms of access for manufacturing but sells out the UK service sector.
Compared to No Deal?
Ah, the old would you like to be poisoned or would you prefer to be shot argument? I assume that Davy would vote against no deal as well.
The question before MPs is fairly simple, do you agree this is a good deal or not. Given the usual Tory approach he is in an impossible situation anyway. If he votes for it in years to come his support will be thrown in his face as it goes badly. If he votes against then he will perversely described as being in favour of a no deal. It is the typical Tory approach of giving people two bad choices and then bullying them into supporting the least worst.
It is a game that I think he is sensible not to play. If you think the deal is bad vote against it, if you think it is good support it. That way, at least we know where people stand.
There is a certain clarity in voting against what happens, if you anticipate it won’t turn out well and intend to oppose it.
Labour faces the greater challenge, having to explain, “ yes, well I know we are the opposition and all, but we voted in favour of what happened, not because we wanted it to happen, oh no, but because had we not voted for what happened, something else might have happened which we wanted even less than what happened, so we voted for what we didn’t want to happen to avoid what would otherwise have happened from happening. But we oppose it all the same, just not quite as much as we would have opposed the other thing.”
Agreed. I think Labour voting for is a grave tactical mistake. Unless they think it is a good deal which I suspect they don't they should oppose. In future the Tories will sell this as a deal of the labour party and the ERG will take the moral high ground claiming it's failings are down to the 'establishment blocking a real brexit'.
Re the LibDems, they have to vote against the deal.
The Conservative and Labour Party have monopolised the centre on this. They can't outflank UKIP or the Tory Right. They will probably make EEA their future policy, and they want to be in the position to say "well, of course we voted against the deal because we wanted EEA." That's a hell of a lot easier message to sell than "of course, we voted for the Deal because really we were voting against No Deal, and actually we want EEA."
Especially as there is no actual risk of No Deal happening.
Plus given every single current LD held constituency voted Remain there is nothing for them to lose unlike the Tories and Labour from being the party of diehard Remainers at Westminster anyway
I think i disagree. There are plenty of people who voted Remain who now accept we are leaving and just want to move on. And are thoroughly relieved that no deal has been averted, and at least see the deal (even if imperfect) as a basis to build in future. And who will not forever want to have appeals to their vote based on their views on Brexit. And will be far more willing to respond positively to a LibDem party that offers solutions going forward based on the world as it is rather than harking back to a world that is gone. They need to move on.
Of course it depends whether they have any ambition of returning to the sort of national relevance that they had in 2009. Or just want to remain as a very minor party seeing getting 20 seats as a success.
A lot of this depends on how next year, the first year of Brexit, goes. It will be a formative year in many people's permanent perceptions of the event.
There's a lot of comfortable and confident perspectives today understandably in the immediate warm afterglow and relief of the deal, but although it's a cliche that echoes down the four years, it's worth reminding that we are *still* in the transition period for the next four days or so. There may be plenty of problems in the new year, and thus plenty of opportunities for the LDs to now make greater hay with them than Labour.
Re the LibDems, they have to vote against the deal.
The Conservative and Labour Party have monopolised the centre on this. They can't outflank UKIP or the Tory Right. They will probably make EEA their future policy, and they want to be in the position to say "well, of course we voted against the deal because we wanted EEA." That's a hell of a lot easier message to sell than "of course, we voted for the Deal because really we were voting against No Deal, and actually we want EEA."
Especially as there is no actual risk of No Deal happening.
Plus given every single current LD held constituency voted Remain there is nothing for them to lose unlike the Tories and Labour from being the party of diehard Remainers at Westminster anyway
I think i disagree. There are plenty of people* who voted Remain who now accept we are leaving and just want to move on. And are thoroughly relieved that no deal has been averted, and at least see the deal (even if imperfect) as a basis to build in future. And who will not forever want to have appeals to their vote based on their views on Brexit. And will be far more willing to respond positively to a LibDem party that offers solutions going forward based on the world as it is rather than harking back to a world that is gone. They need to move on.
Of course it depends whether they have any ambition of returning to the sort of national relevance that they had in 2009. Or just want to remain as a very minor party seeing getting 20 seats as a success.
*OK. One person at least.
To be fair 20-30 seats for the Lib Dems would likely make them very relevant if Labour improve too
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
1%? There are 50k fishermen in Scotland?
Do you have any source for that?
I'd have guessed 10k.
In 2016 - 4,832 fishermen were employed on Scottish based vessels representing 0.2% of the workforce
Sudden thought: did it say if they are actually Scottish? The bigger boats do employ third country folk (e.g. Filipinos) to a n [edit] surprising degree. Maybe not a lot, but still more than I'd expected.
Edit: I'm not sure if they actually live ashore at all. Or what their tax situation is.
Yeah, the truth is that British folk don't want to work the boats or gut fish in Grimsby. I don't blame them.
Total bollock foxy, coming from a small fishing port as I do and having worked trawlers I can tell you for sure that plenty of us were happy to work boats and gut fish....however when half of our quota was redistributed to other countries in the 70's it overtime became harder and harder to make a living.
When I finally quit trawlers in 85 we were down to only being able to fish 6 weeks of the year. The skipper could no longer make any money because a boat costs maintenance money whether it goes to sea or not.
He had two choices go slowly bankrupt or lay off the crew and sell his quota. People always make it sound like fisherman were queuing up to sell their quota's gleefully. I am sure some of the large concerns that ran a fleet might have been but not the independents
What will happen to SW Lib Dem voters now Brexit is done? Any chance they reclaim their former heartlands now?
I am not an expert on the Lib Dems!
No, LD heartlands are now SW London, West Oxford and West Edinburgh not the SW of England
It will depend how badly the sell out of British fishermen goes down. I would expect large parts of the SW to feel that they have been used by the government. The SW will be badly damaged by brexit and the failure to get the single benefit we were told we would get is unlikely to go down well.
I think that there is a misconception that people wanted Brexit for the sake of it. They wanted Brexit because they were told it would make their life better. If life in the SW does not improve the Tories are likely to be in trouble.
If those SW fishermen dislike the Deal they will go to Farage or UKIP now, not the LDs
What will happen to SW Lib Dem voters now Brexit is done? Any chance they reclaim their former heartlands now?
I am not an expert on the Lib Dems!
No, LD heartlands are now SW London, West Oxford and West Edinburgh not the SW of England
It will depend how badly the sell out of British fishermen goes down. I would expect large parts of the SW to feel that they have been used by the government. The SW will be badly damaged by brexit and the failure to get the single benefit we were told we would get is unlikely to go down well.
I think that there is a misconception that people wanted Brexit for the sake of it. They wanted Brexit because they were told it would make their life better. If life in the SW does not improve the Tories are likely to be in trouble.
If those SW fishermen dislike the Deal they will go to Farage or UKIP now, not the LDs
Split vote would still be a problem for the Tories, no?
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
1%? There are 50k fishermen in Scotland?
Do you have any source for that?
I'd have guessed 10k.
In 2016 - 4,832 fishermen were employed on Scottish based vessels representing 0.2% of the workforce
Sudden thought: did it say if they are actually Scottish? The bigger boats do employ third country folk (e.g. Filipinos) to a n [edit] surprising degree. Maybe not a lot, but still more than I'd expected.
Edit: I'm not sure if they actually live ashore at all. Or what their tax situation is.
Yeah, the truth is that British folk don't want to work the boats or gut fish in Grimsby. I don't blame them.
Total bollock foxy, coming from a small fishing port as I do and having worked trawlers I can tell you for sure that plenty of us were happy to work boats and gut fish....however when half of our quota was redistributed to other countries in the 70's it overtime became harder and harder to make a living.
When I finally quit trawlers in 85 we were down to only being able to fish 6 weeks of the year. The skipper could no longer make any money because a boat costs maintenance money whether it goes to sea or not.
He had two choices go slowly bankrupt or lay off the crew and sell his quota. People always make it sound like fisherman were queuing up to sell their quota's gleefully. I am sure some of the large concerns that ran a fleet might have been but not the independents
Over half the British quota has been sold to EU fleets by British fishermen themselves.
LibDems backing a second referendum a year ago, now No Deal?
Brexit has made for strange politics.
I really don't understand why the LDs should be quite so bad.
What happened to the middle-class responsible nice people? Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams, not so much David Owen though
The modern politician who perhaps seems most like them is Nandy. I can't see her seeking them out though.
Just stupid from Davey if he votes against.
Maybe he thinks that the deal is a bad deal for the UK. That would be a sensible reason to vote against it.
It gives the EU what it needs in terms of access for manufacturing but sells out the UK service sector.
Compared to No Deal?
Ah, the old would you like to be poisoned or would you prefer to be shot argument? I assume that Davy would vote against no deal as well.
The question before MPs is fairly simple, do you agree this is a good deal or not. Given the usual Tory approach he is in an impossible situation anyway. If he votes for it in years to come his support will be thrown in his face as it goes badly. If he votes against then he will perversely described as being in favour of a no deal. It is the typical Tory approach of giving people two bad choices and then bullying them into supporting the least worst.
It is a game that I think he is sensible not to play. If you think the deal is bad vote against it, if you think it is good support it. That way, at least we know where people stand.
There is a certain clarity in voting against what happens, if you anticipate it won’t turn out well and intend to oppose it.
Labour faces the greater challenge, having to explain, “ yes, well I know we are the opposition and all, but we voted in favour of what happened, not because we wanted it to happen, oh no, but because had we not voted for what happened, something else might have happened which we wanted even less than what happened, so we voted for what we didn’t want to happen to avoid what would otherwise have happened from happening. But we oppose it all the same, just not quite as much as we would have opposed the other thing.”
It's not directly about whether they vote for or against or abstain on the Deal. It is about what message they suggest they will be pursuing in the future.
Route 1: Accept the Deal. Say that you will work to improve on it and negotiate further deals in the future that covers areas about which the deal is silent. Whether it be freedom of movement or services or whatever.
Route 2: Repudiate the Deal. Say that your objective is to tear it up completely and pursue some other 'off the shelf solution'. Whether that be EEA or even rejoining the EU or something else.
I think route 1 is the route to go down. Route 2 is just sending a message that you they will be refighting the battles of 2016 for ever. And totally ignores how our relationship with the EU in future may be influenced by whatever arrangements have been negotiated with other countries in teh world.
I expect the vast majority of the Conservative Party to unite over this deal and move forward but the real action is going to be in the Labour party as I expect many to to defy Starmer and the whip
LibDems backing a second referendum a year ago, now No Deal?
Brexit has made for strange politics.
I really don't understand why the LDs should be quite so bad.
What happened to the middle-class responsible nice people? Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams, not so much David Owen though
The modern politician who perhaps seems most like them is Nandy. I can't see her seeking them out though.
Just stupid from Davey if he votes against.
Maybe he thinks that the deal is a bad deal for the UK. That would be a sensible reason to vote against it.
It gives the EU what it needs in terms of access for manufacturing but sells out the UK service sector.
Compared to No Deal?
Ah, the old would you like to be poisoned or would you prefer to be shot argument? I assume that Davy would vote against no deal as well.
The question before MPs is fairly simple, do you agree this is a good deal or not. Given the usual Tory approach he is in an impossible situation anyway. If he votes for it in years to come his support will be thrown in his face as it goes badly. If he votes against then he will perversely described as being in favour of a no deal. It is the typical Tory approach of giving people two bad choices and then bullying them into supporting the least worst.
It is a game that I think he is sensible not to play. If you think the deal is bad vote against it, if you think it is good support it. That way, at least we know where people stand.
There is a certain clarity in voting against what happens, if you anticipate it won’t turn out well and intend to oppose it.
Labour faces the greater challenge, having to explain, “ yes, well I know we are the opposition and all, but we voted in favour of what happened, not because we wanted it to happen, oh no, but because had we not voted for what happened, something else might have happened which we wanted even less than what happened, so we voted for what we didn’t want to happen to avoid what would otherwise have happened from happening. But we oppose it all the same, just not quite as much as we would have opposed the other thing.”
It's not directly about whether they vote for or against or abstain on the Deal. It is about what message they suggest they will be pursuing in the future.
Route 1: Accept the Deal. Say that you will work to improve on it and negotiate further deals in the future that covers areas about which the deal is silent. Whether it be freedom of movement or services or whatever.
Route 2: Repudiate the Deal. Say that your objective is to tear it up completely and pursue some other 'off the shelf solution'. Whether that be EEA or even rejoining the EU or something else.
I think route 1 is the route to go down. Route 2 is just sending a message that you they will be refighting the battles of 2016 for ever. And totally ignores how our relationship with the EU in future may be influenced by whatever arrangements have been negotiated with other countries in teh world.
For younger city-dwelling liberals, Brexit is still as much a keystone identity issue as it is in Hartlepool. This is why the LD's briefly experienced a major resurgence in the polls within the last two years, and why I think they would be very unwise to close off the possibility of exploiting it more than Labour ; particularly in the probably troubled first year of the new arrangements.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
1%? There are 50k fishermen in Scotland?
Do you have any source for that?
I'd have guessed 10k.
In 2016 - 4,832 fishermen were employed on Scottish based vessels representing 0.2% of the workforce
Sudden thought: did it say if they are actually Scottish? The bigger boats do employ third country folk (e.g. Filipinos) to a n [edit] surprising degree. Maybe not a lot, but still more than I'd expected.
Edit: I'm not sure if they actually live ashore at all. Or what their tax situation is.
Yeah, the truth is that British folk don't want to work the boats or gut fish in Grimsby. I don't blame them.
I think self identifying Brexiteers should commit to a month a year in a fish processing plant at an appropriate wage for the haunless and glaikit, bit like the old Scottish tattie holidays.
At least I've howked tatties and (yes, this is true) hoed neeps. The latter is one of my least favourite jobs of all time but at least I've done them.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
1%? There are 50k fishermen in Scotland?
Do you have any source for that?
I'd have guessed 10k.
In 2016 - 4,832 fishermen were employed on Scottish based vessels representing 0.2% of the workforce
Sudden thought: did it say if they are actually Scottish? The bigger boats do employ third country folk (e.g. Filipinos) to a n [edit] surprising degree. Maybe not a lot, but still more than I'd expected.
Edit: I'm not sure if they actually live ashore at all. Or what their tax situation is.
Yeah, the truth is that British folk don't want to work the boats or gut fish in Grimsby. I don't blame them.
Total bollock foxy, coming from a small fishing port as I do and having worked trawlers I can tell you for sure that plenty of us were happy to work boats and gut fish....however when half of our quota was redistributed to other countries in the 70's it overtime became harder and harder to make a living.
When I finally quit trawlers in 85 we were down to only being able to fish 6 weeks of the year. The skipper could no longer make any money because a boat costs maintenance money whether it goes to sea or not.
He had two choices go slowly bankrupt or lay off the crew and sell his quota. People always make it sound like fisherman were queuing up to sell their quota's gleefully. I am sure some of the large concerns that ran a fleet might have been but not the independents
Over half the British quota has been sold to EU fleets by British fishermen themselves.
Yes because a lot of those fisherman had no choice, they were catching x before we joined. On joining immediately half the british fish got allocated to other countries as part of the common fishing policies. Leaving us with half x.
Over the next decade or so due to the crapness of the common fishing policy more and more species became overfished and x decreased.
If you care to suggest how an independent skipper can keep a boat and crew running when they are only allowed to fish 6 weeks of the year then feel free to expound.
Selling something when your choice is either go bankrupt or sell is not a choice.
Just seen that Daniel hannan has been made a Lord. He's lost his job as MEP is reasonably responsible for us ending up in this shambolic mess and is rewarded with a peerage. Is there no end to this governments gifts for shits?
Well, if Boris's brother and others can be made lords, so can the Downing Street Cat, a la Caligula.
LibDems backing a second referendum a year ago, now No Deal?
Brexit has made for strange politics.
I really don't understand why the LDs should be quite so bad.
What happened to the middle-class responsible nice people? Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams, not so much David Owen though
The modern politician who perhaps seems most like them is Nandy. I can't see her seeking them out though.
Just stupid from Davey if he votes against.
Maybe he thinks that the deal is a bad deal for the UK. That would be a sensible reason to vote against it.
It gives the EU what it needs in terms of access for manufacturing but sells out the UK service sector.
Compared to No Deal?
Ah, the old would you like to be poisoned or would you prefer to be shot argument? I assume that Davy would vote against no deal as well.
The question before MPs is fairly simple, do you agree this is a good deal or not. Given the usual Tory approach he is in an impossible situation anyway. If he votes for it in years to come his support will be thrown in his face as it goes badly. If he votes against then he will perversely described as being in favour of a no deal. It is the typical Tory approach of giving people two bad choices and then bullying them into supporting the least worst.
It is a game that I think he is sensible not to play. If you think the deal is bad vote against it, if you think it is good support it. That way, at least we know where people stand.
There is a certain clarity in voting against what happens, if you anticipate it won’t turn out well and intend to oppose it.
Labour faces the greater challenge, having to explain, “ yes, well I know we are the opposition and all, but we voted in favour of what happened, not because we wanted it to happen, oh no, but because had we not voted for what happened, something else might have happened which we wanted even less than what happened, so we voted for what we didn’t want to happen to avoid what would otherwise have happened from happening. But we oppose it all the same, just not quite as much as we would have opposed the other thing.”
It's not directly about whether they vote for or against or abstain on the Deal. It is about what message they suggest they will be pursuing in the future.
Route 1: Accept the Deal. Say that you will work to improve on it and negotiate further deals in the future that covers areas about which the deal is silent. Whether it be freedom of movement or services or whatever.
Route 2: Repudiate the Deal. Say that your objective is to tear it up completely and pursue some other 'off the shelf solution'. Whether that be EEA or even rejoining the EU or something else.
I think route 1 is the route to go down. Route 2 is just sending a message that you they will be refighting the battles of 2016 for ever. And totally ignores how our relationship with the EU in future may be influenced by whatever arrangements have been negotiated with other countries in teh world.
For younger city-dwelling liberals, Brexit is still as much a keystone identity issue as it is Hartlepool. This is why the LD's briefly experienced a major resurgence in the polls within the last two years, and why I think they would be very unwise to close off the possibility of exploiting it more than Labour.
Arguably the 2019 Lib Dems were impacted by their voters being too afraid of Corbyn to vote for them.
Can't see that happening again, Starmer is very popular with Lib Dem voters.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
1%? There are 50k fishermen in Scotland?
Do you have any source for that?
I'd have guessed 10k.
In 2016 - 4,832 fishermen were employed on Scottish based vessels representing 0.2% of the workforce
Sudden thought: did it say if they are actually Scottish? The bigger boats do employ third country folk (e.g. Filipinos) to a n [edit] surprising degree. Maybe not a lot, but still more than I'd expected.
Edit: I'm not sure if they actually live ashore at all. Or what their tax situation is.
Yeah, the truth is that British folk don't want to work the boats or gut fish in Grimsby. I don't blame them.
Total bollock foxy, coming from a small fishing port as I do and having worked trawlers I can tell you for sure that plenty of us were happy to work boats and gut fish....however when half of our quota was redistributed to other countries in the 70's it overtime became harder and harder to make a living.
When I finally quit trawlers in 85 we were down to only being able to fish 6 weeks of the year. The skipper could no longer make any money because a boat costs maintenance money whether it goes to sea or not.
He had two choices go slowly bankrupt or lay off the crew and sell his quota. People always make it sound like fisherman were queuing up to sell their quota's gleefully. I am sure some of the large concerns that ran a fleet might have been but not the independents
Foxy was referring to 2020 not nineteencanteen I think.
What will happen to SW Lib Dem voters now Brexit is done? Any chance they reclaim their former heartlands now?
I am not an expert on the Lib Dems!
I think there's only one seat in the South West where the LDs have a meaningful chance of winning in the next two election cycles: St Ives. (Which is rather more "Remainy" than most of the rest of the SW.)
It will be interesting to see how the local elections play out in 2021
In the Cornwall Unitary Authority the LDs were about seven points behind the Conservatives in 2017, getting 29% of the vote. In Devon (at the County Council level), the LDs were second with a fairly feeble 21%. Right now, you'd expect the LDs to fall back a bit, but who knows what's happening on the ground.
LibDems backing a second referendum a year ago, now No Deal?
Brexit has made for strange politics.
I really don't understand why the LDs should be quite so bad.
What happened to the middle-class responsible nice people? Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams, not so much David Owen though
The modern politician who perhaps seems most like them is Nandy. I can't see her seeking them out though.
Just stupid from Davey if he votes against.
Maybe he thinks that the deal is a bad deal for the UK. That would be a sensible reason to vote against it.
It gives the EU what it needs in terms of access for manufacturing but sells out the UK service sector.
Compared to No Deal?
Ah, the old would you like to be poisoned or would you prefer to be shot argument? I assume that Davy would vote against no deal as well.
The question before MPs is fairly simple, do you agree this is a good deal or not. Given the usual Tory approach he is in an impossible situation anyway. If he votes for it in years to come his support will be thrown in his face as it goes badly. If he votes against then he will perversely described as being in favour of a no deal. It is the typical Tory approach of giving people two bad choices and then bullying them into supporting the least worst.
It is a game that I think he is sensible not to play. If you think the deal is bad vote against it, if you think it is good support it. That way, at least we know where people stand.
There is a certain clarity in voting against what happens, if you anticipate it won’t turn out well and intend to oppose it.
Labour faces the greater challenge, having to explain, “ yes, well I know we are the opposition and all, but we voted in favour of what happened, not because we wanted it to happen, oh no, but because had we not voted for what happened, something else might have happened which we wanted even less than what happened, so we voted for what we didn’t want to happen to avoid what would otherwise have happened from happening. But we oppose it all the same, just not quite as much as we would have opposed the other thing.”
It's not directly about whether they vote for or against or abstain on the Deal. It is about what message they suggest they will be pursuing in the future.
Route 1: Accept the Deal. Say that you will work to improve on it and negotiate further deals in the future that covers areas about which the deal is silent. Whether it be freedom of movement or services or whatever.
Route 2: Repudiate the Deal. Say that your objective is to tear it up completely and pursue some other 'off the shelf solution'. Whether that be EEA or even rejoining the EU or something else.
I think route 1 is the route to go down. Route 2 is just sending a message that you they will be refighting the battles of 2016 for ever. And totally ignores how our relationship with the EU in future may be influenced by whatever arrangements have been negotiated with other countries in teh world.
For younger city-dwelling liberals, Brexit is still as much a keystone identity issue as it is Hartlepool. This is why the LD's briefly experienced a major resurgence in the polls within the last two years, and why I think they would be very unwise to close off the possibility of exploiting it more than Labour.
Arguably the 2019 Lib Dems were impacted by their voters being too afraid of Corbyn to vote for them.
Can't see that happening again, Starmer is very popular with Lib Dem voters.
Betting tip: Guildford to go Lib Dem
Starmer will not be popular with lib dems voters by whipping to vote with the government
As above, the only question here is whether Brexiter MPs are prepared to re-engage in the real political world and embrace this deal as something to champion and take forward (as, to his credit, Farage has realised) - or whether they are going to underline the essential futility of their ideological purity and posture and pose by abstaining or opposing the government deal.
Wise words from your posts this afternoon.
My advice would be magnanimity and to go back to sober, sensible good Government.
Make Conservatives the safe choice and Labour the risky/disruptive one in 2024 again.
Let Labour point the way forward once again.
I will be writing about what Labour needs to do to win again in the weeks to come.
You won't like all of it.
It is not in their control to win it. If Brexit is a success, the govt gets re-elected easily. If its average, the govt probably still get re-elected but it might be a hung parliament. If its a mess, it will likely be a hung parliament given Starmer will neither inspire nor give the govt Corbyns open goals.
I wrote an article a few weeks about the Fall of the West. The importance of stable nations, that form its building blocks, was a key part of it.
Jonathan's first reaction was to sneer at that. He then mentioned a few institutions he liked (as a man of the Left) like the NHS, BBC, and Unions - and I responded positively - but he ignored that, and followed up with nothing but a deafening silence.
He's an ex-Labour parliamentary candidate. And that is the problem Labour has.
They will forever be confined to university towns and metropolitan cities until they rediscover their patriotism.
Top tip, never confuse a lack of reply for deliberate silence. Like many I dip in and out of here and no doubt miss much. I would be very happy to reply to any point, but sometimes the real world beckons.
Ok, but your original post wasn't very friendly nor generous.
I think it touched a nerve with you, which I find interesting of itself.
There's lots in English, and British, reformist and radical history to be proud of for the Left, as well as in our literature and broader culture. Not to mention our absurdly beautiful country itself.
Why not find it, love it, and champion it?
There's nothing unpatriotic in condemning Johnson for his role in the destruction of the country we love. Tories would do well to remember that he is hacking away at the foundation of this 'stable nation'.
Indeed there isn't but that's a non sequitur totally unrelated to the point I was making.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
1%? There are 50k fishermen in Scotland?
Do you have any source for that?
I'd have guessed 10k.
In 2016 - 4,832 fishermen were employed on Scottish based vessels representing 0.2% of the workforce
Sudden thought: did it say if they are actually Scottish? The bigger boats do employ third country folk (e.g. Filipinos) to a n [edit] surprising degree. Maybe not a lot, but still more than I'd expected.
Edit: I'm not sure if they actually live ashore at all. Or what their tax situation is.
Yeah, the truth is that British folk don't want to work the boats or gut fish in Grimsby. I don't blame them.
Total bollock foxy, coming from a small fishing port as I do and having worked trawlers I can tell you for sure that plenty of us were happy to work boats and gut fish....however when half of our quota was redistributed to other countries in the 70's it overtime became harder and harder to make a living.
When I finally quit trawlers in 85 we were down to only being able to fish 6 weeks of the year. The skipper could no longer make any money because a boat costs maintenance money whether it goes to sea or not.
He had two choices go slowly bankrupt or lay off the crew and sell his quota. People always make it sound like fisherman were queuing up to sell their quota's gleefully. I am sure some of the large concerns that ran a fleet might have been but not the independents
Over half the British quota has been sold to EU fleets by British fishermen themselves.
No, they haven't. You are getting confused between national quotas and individual quotas. Anyone with any basic knowledge of the fishing industry would not make this mistake, but many think they are an expert after reading two Guardian articles.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
1%? There are 50k fishermen in Scotland?
Do you have any source for that?
I'd have guessed 10k.
In 2016 - 4,832 fishermen were employed on Scottish based vessels representing 0.2% of the workforce
Sudden thought: did it say if they are actually Scottish? The bigger boats do employ third country folk (e.g. Filipinos) to a n [edit] surprising degree. Maybe not a lot, but still more than I'd expected.
Edit: I'm not sure if they actually live ashore at all. Or what their tax situation is.
Yeah, the truth is that British folk don't want to work the boats or gut fish in Grimsby. I don't blame them.
Total bollock foxy, coming from a small fishing port as I do and having worked trawlers I can tell you for sure that plenty of us were happy to work boats and gut fish....however when half of our quota was redistributed to other countries in the 70's it overtime became harder and harder to make a living.
When I finally quit trawlers in 85 we were down to only being able to fish 6 weeks of the year. The skipper could no longer make any money because a boat costs maintenance money whether it goes to sea or not.
He had two choices go slowly bankrupt or lay off the crew and sell his quota. People always make it sound like fisherman were queuing up to sell their quota's gleefully. I am sure some of the large concerns that ran a fleet might have been but not the independents
Foxy was referring to 2020 not nineteencanteen I think.
Fishing is a tradition as much as anything and tends to run in families. When you break the link as independents give up due to decreasing catches then you break the link. About half the kids I grew up expected to spend their lives in the fishing industry. These days my home town which was a thriving fishing community is a marina for middle class yachties.
Also fishing pays less than it did because fleets hire cheap deck hands from third countries as he noted. When I went to sea a deck hand would get paid a percentage from the catch.....now I suspect those philipinno deck hands probably get less than minimum wage
As above, the only question here is whether Brexiter MPs are prepared to re-engage in the real political world and embrace this deal as something to champion and take forward (as, to his credit, Farage has realised) - or whether they are going to underline the essential futility of their ideological purity and posture and pose by abstaining or opposing the government deal.
Wise words from your posts this afternoon.
My advice would be magnanimity and to go back to sober, sensible good Government.
Make Conservatives the safe choice and Labour the risky/disruptive one in 2024 again.
Let Labour point the way forward once again.
I will be writing about what Labour needs to do to win again in the weeks to come.
You won't like all of it.
It is not in their control to win it. If Brexit is a success, the govt gets re-elected easily. If its average, the govt probably still get re-elected but it might be a hung parliament. If its a mess, it will likely be a hung parliament given Starmer will neither inspire nor give the govt Corbyns open goals.
I wrote an article a few weeks about the Fall of the West. The importance of stable nations, that form its building blocks, was a key part of it.
Jonathan's first reaction was to sneer at that. He then mentioned a few institutions he liked (as a man of the Left) like the NHS, BBC, and Unions - and I responded positively - but he ignored that, and followed up with nothing but a deafening silence.
He's an ex-Labour parliamentary candidate. And that is the problem Labour has.
They will forever be confined to university towns and metropolitan cities until they rediscover their patriotism.
Top tip, never confuse a lack of reply for deliberate silence. Like many I dip in and out of here and no doubt miss much. I would be very happy to reply to any point, but sometimes the real world beckons.
Ok, but your original post wasn't very friendly nor generous.
I think it touched a nerve with you, which I find interesting of itself.
There's lots in English, and British, reformist and radical history to be proud of for the Left, as well as in our literature and broader culture. Not to mention our absurdly beautiful country itself.
Why not find it, love it, and champion it?
Who says we don’t? I suspect you or others on the right really get the patriotism of the left. The right seem to believe they own patriotism and confuse it for nationalism.
You are letting the right own patriotism by saying nothing about it.
I think many on the Left think it's a very short step from saying you love your country (and here's why.. etc) to invading Poland. So they don't. At all. And just sneer at British nationhood instead - seeing it as an obstacle to their favoured progressive politics.
It's total nonsense, of course, but explains a lot - not least of which why they keep losing elections.
What will happen to SW Lib Dem voters now Brexit is done? Any chance they reclaim their former heartlands now?
I am not an expert on the Lib Dems!
I think there's only one seat in the South West where the LDs have a meaningful chance of winning in the next two election cycles: St Ives. (Which is rather more "Remainy" than most of the rest of the SW.)
It will be interesting to see how the local elections play out in 2021
In the Cornwall Unitary Authority the LDs were about seven points behind the Conservatives in 2017, getting 29% of the vote. In Devon (at the County Council level), the LDs were second with a fairly feeble 21%. Right now, you'd expect the LDs to fall back a bit, but who knows what's happening on the ground.
The Lib Dems took the council in Torquay at the local elections and would expect to mount a challenge to the parliamentary constituency next time. A lot will depend on how badly the fishing sell out goes in Brixham. That is in Torbay council but the Totnes constituency and the LDs will hope to do well there as well.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
1%? There are 50k fishermen in Scotland?
Do you have any source for that?
I'd have guessed 10k.
In 2016 - 4,832 fishermen were employed on Scottish based vessels representing 0.2% of the workforce
Sudden thought: did it say if they are actually Scottish? The bigger boats do employ third country folk (e.g. Filipinos) to a n [edit] surprising degree. Maybe not a lot, but still more than I'd expected.
Edit: I'm not sure if they actually live ashore at all. Or what their tax situation is.
Yeah, the truth is that British folk don't want to work the boats or gut fish in Grimsby. I don't blame them.
Total bollock foxy, coming from a small fishing port as I do and having worked trawlers I can tell you for sure that plenty of us were happy to work boats and gut fish....however when half of our quota was redistributed to other countries in the 70's it overtime became harder and harder to make a living.
When I finally quit trawlers in 85 we were down to only being able to fish 6 weeks of the year. The skipper could no longer make any money because a boat costs maintenance money whether it goes to sea or not.
He had two choices go slowly bankrupt or lay off the crew and sell his quota. People always make it sound like fisherman were queuing up to sell their quota's gleefully. I am sure some of the large concerns that ran a fleet might have been but not the independents
Over half the British quota has been sold to EU fleets by British fishermen themselves.
No, they haven't. You are getting confused between national quotas and individual quotas. Anyone with any basic knowledge of the fishing industry would not make this mistake, but many think they are an expert after reading two Guardian articles.
Indeed: it's also worth remembering that some quotas have been sold to firms outside the UK and the EU.
So, the actual mix of fishing boats and what they're landing (and where) is a lot more complex than the headlines.
Re the LibDems, they have to vote against the deal.
The Conservative and Labour Party have monopolised the centre on this. They can't outflank UKIP or the Tory Right. They will probably make EEA their future policy, and they want to be in the position to say "well, of course we voted against the deal because we wanted EEA." That's a hell of a lot easier message to sell than "of course, we voted for the Deal because really we were voting against No Deal, and actually we want EEA."
Especially as there is no actual risk of No Deal happening.
Plus given every single current LD held constituency voted Remain there is nothing for them to lose unlike the Tories and Labour from being the party of diehard Remainers at Westminster anyway
I think i disagree. There are plenty of people who voted Remain who now accept we are leaving and just want to move on. And are thoroughly relieved that no deal has been averted, and at least see the deal (even if imperfect) as a basis to build in future. And who will not forever want to have appeals to their vote based on their views on Brexit. And will be far more willing to respond positively to a LibDem party that offers solutions going forward based on the world as it is rather than harking back to a world that is gone. They need to move on.
Of course it depends whether they have any ambition of returning to the sort of national relevance that they had in 2009. Or just want to remain as a very minor party seeing getting 20 seats as a success.
A lot of this depends on how next year, the first year of Brexit, goes. It will be a formative year in many people's permanent perceptions of the event.
There's a lot of comfortable and confident perspectives today understandably in the immediate warm afterglow and relief of the deal, but although it's a cliche that echoes down the four years, it's worth reminding that we are *still* in the transition period for the next four days or so. There may be plenty of problems in the new year, and thus plenty of opportunities for the LDs to now make greater hay with them than Labour.
I don't know how big it is, but I'd be surprised if there wasn't a chunk of opinion that went "OK Boris, you've won the right to try your Brexit, but I want to see what happens next and heaven help you if it isn't Sunlit Uplands..." It's naive to think this is over, any more than it was over for Labour in May 1992, or the Conservatives in May 2005.
(Also- I thought I was a pragmatic soft remainer. I expected to be a bit sad, a bit ho hum, a lot make the best of it. I'm still mainly concerned about practicalities, but the "UK won" nonsense of the last 48 hours has made me more emotionally regretful much more than I expected.)
LibDems backing a second referendum a year ago, now No Deal?
Brexit has made for strange politics.
I really don't understand why the LDs should be quite so bad.
What happened to the middle-class responsible nice people? Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams, not so much David Owen though
The modern politician who perhaps seems most like them is Nandy. I can't see her seeking them out though.
Just stupid from Davey if he votes against.
Maybe he thinks that the deal is a bad deal for the UK. That would be a sensible reason to vote against it.
It gives the EU what it needs in terms of access for manufacturing but sells out the UK service sector.
Compared to No Deal?
Ah, the old would you like to be poisoned or would you prefer to be shot argument? I assume that Davy would vote against no deal as well.
The question before MPs is fairly simple, do you agree this is a good deal or not. Given the usual Tory approach he is in an impossible situation anyway. If he votes for it in years to come his support will be thrown in his face as it goes badly. If he votes against then he will perversely described as being in favour of a no deal. It is the typical Tory approach of giving people two bad choices and then bullying them into supporting the least worst.
It is a game that I think he is sensible not to play. If you think the deal is bad vote against it, if you think it is good support it. That way, at least we know where people stand.
There is a certain clarity in voting against what happens, if you anticipate it won’t turn out well and intend to oppose it.
Labour faces the greater challenge, having to explain, “ yes, well I know we are the opposition and all, but we voted in favour of what happened, not because we wanted it to happen, oh no, but because had we not voted for what happened, something else might have happened which we wanted even less than what happened, so we voted for what we didn’t want to happen to avoid what would otherwise have happened from happening. But we oppose it all the same, just not quite as much as we would have opposed the other thing.”
It's not directly about whether they vote for or against or abstain on the Deal. It is about what message they suggest they will be pursuing in the future.
Route 1: Accept the Deal. Say that you will work to improve on it and negotiate further deals in the future that covers areas about which the deal is silent. Whether it be freedom of movement or services or whatever.
Route 2: Repudiate the Deal. Say that your objective is to tear it up completely and pursue some other 'off the shelf solution'. Whether that be EEA or even rejoining the EU or something else.
I think route 1 is the route to go down. Route 2 is just sending a message that you they will be refighting the battles of 2016 for ever. And totally ignores how our relationship with the EU in future may be influenced by whatever arrangements have been negotiated with other countries in teh world.
For younger city-dwelling liberals, Brexit is still as much a keystone identity issue as it is Hartlepool. This is why the LD's briefly experienced a major resurgence in the polls within the last two years, and why I think they would be very unwise to close off the possibility of exploiting it more than Labour.
Arguably the 2019 Lib Dems were impacted by their voters being too afraid of Corbyn to vote for them.
Can't see that happening again, Starmer is very popular with Lib Dem voters.
Betting tip: Guildford to go Lib Dem
A question. The will be elections in 2021. In 2022. In 2023. And then a General Election in 2024 (probably - although it may be sooner if FTPA is repealed).
Do you expect LibDem election literature through these elections will still be significantly dominated by the EU? Ever since the referendum they have increasingly seemed to set out to campaign as an almost single issue party. Does anyone know what else they stand for any more (and i admit it may simply be that EU policy has drowned out everything else and i am complicit in not knowing that).
Or will they be able to return to more broad based campaigning over a range of issues that have direct relevance to voters? In 2019 they campaigned on stopping Brexit. It got them nowhere. Are they really going to move forward campaigning on reversing it?
To be honest, there isn't much point in reading it before the vote. It's not as if it can be modified.
On that basis you may as well abolish Parliamentary votes on most things. Is that really what you want?
Those on the Leave side who have shouted loudest about Parliamentary sovereignty and democracy are those who have done the most to ensure the sidelining of Parliament and the minimum of scrutiny for this, the most important of agreements and one which is intended to set Britain's course in the world for the next few years.
Whatever they are they are not true democrats.
If they were they would want to spell out exactly what this means for this country: not just the advantages - and there will be some for some people anyway, but the costs and trade-offs, who wins and who loses within this country. They would want to do what they often accuse the pro-Common Market side of not doing all those decades ago, of spelling out what departure really means. Instead they will rely on exhaustion and relief and our worries about Covid to slip this through, unread, unscrutinised, barely understood and hope to have departed for more lucrative roles before people realise the reality.
It is shaming that a country which likes to boast about having the mother of Parliaments behaves in this way. But the reality is that we now have government by decree, with little debate, even less scrutiny and as little accountability as it can get away with.
We've already seen a heavy presence from them on here today; they're clearly all fired up (despite obviously being disappointed it wasn't No Deal) for next year, which will be the next major battle of British politics.
But for BoZo the biggest battles will be internal.
The headbangers are not going to keep quiet, and he still has to explain to the red Wallers why he sold them out.
Apart from that...
How that woman has the gall to criticise the Tories on fishing when she and her party opposed reclaiming any Scottish fishing catch from the EU and the Tories have ensured catch will be reclaimed over the next 5 years is beyond me!
The Red Wall meanwhile has got the end of free movement and its replacement by a points system and reclaimed sovereignty as it voted for
The problem is that the Scottish will consider that they have given up plenty and not got what they were told they would get in return. To be fair that seems like a reasonable assessment.
Some of the 1% of Scots who are fishermen might, the rest will be grateful they are reclaiming some catch.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
1%? There are 50k fishermen in Scotland?
Do you have any source for that?
I'd have guessed 10k.
In 2016 - 4,832 fishermen were employed on Scottish based vessels representing 0.2% of the workforce
Sudden thought: did it say if they are actually Scottish? The bigger boats do employ third country folk (e.g. Filipinos) to a n [edit] surprising degree. Maybe not a lot, but still more than I'd expected.
Edit: I'm not sure if they actually live ashore at all. Or what their tax situation is.
Yeah, the truth is that British folk don't want to work the boats or gut fish in Grimsby. I don't blame them.
Total bollock foxy, coming from a small fishing port as I do and having worked trawlers I can tell you for sure that plenty of us were happy to work boats and gut fish....however when half of our quota was redistributed to other countries in the 70's it overtime became harder and harder to make a living.
When I finally quit trawlers in 85 we were down to only being able to fish 6 weeks of the year. The skipper could no longer make any money because a boat costs maintenance money whether it goes to sea or not.
He had two choices go slowly bankrupt or lay off the crew and sell his quota. People always make it sound like fisherman were queuing up to sell their quota's gleefully. I am sure some of the large concerns that ran a fleet might have been but not the independents
Foxy was referring to 2020 not nineteencanteen I think.
Fishing is a tradition as much as anything and tends to run in families. When you break the link as independents give up due to decreasing catches then you break the link. About half the kids I grew up expected to spend their lives in the fishing industry. These days my home town which was a thriving fishing community is a marina for middle class yachties.
Also fishing pays less than it did because fleets hire cheap deck hands from third countries as he noted. When I went to sea a deck hand would get paid a percentage from the catch.....now I suspect those philipinno deck hands probably get less than minimum wage
Isn't that rather Foxy's point? Are there loads of youngsters currently dying to get fishscales on their hands?
LibDems backing a second referendum a year ago, now No Deal?
Brexit has made for strange politics.
I really don't understand why the LDs should be quite so bad.
What happened to the middle-class responsible nice people? Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams, not so much David Owen though
The modern politician who perhaps seems most like them is Nandy. I can't see her seeking them out though.
Just stupid from Davey if he votes against.
Maybe he thinks that the deal is a bad deal for the UK. That would be a sensible reason to vote against it.
It gives the EU what it needs in terms of access for manufacturing but sells out the UK service sector.
Compared to No Deal?
Ah, the old would you like to be poisoned or would you prefer to be shot argument? I assume that Davy would vote against no deal as well.
The question before MPs is fairly simple, do you agree this is a good deal or not. Given the usual Tory approach he is in an impossible situation anyway. If he votes for it in years to come his support will be thrown in his face as it goes badly. If he votes against then he will perversely described as being in favour of a no deal. It is the typical Tory approach of giving people two bad choices and then bullying them into supporting the least worst.
It is a game that I think he is sensible not to play. If you think the deal is bad vote against it, if you think it is good support it. That way, at least we know where people stand.
There is a certain clarity in voting against what happens, if you anticipate it won’t turn out well and intend to oppose it.
Labour faces the greater challenge, having to explain, “ yes, well I know we are the opposition and all, but we voted in favour of what happened, not because we wanted it to happen, oh no, but because had we not voted for what happened, something else might have happened which we wanted even less than what happened, so we voted for what we didn’t want to happen to avoid what would otherwise have happened from happening. But we oppose it all the same, just not quite as much as we would have opposed the other thing.”
It's not directly about whether they vote for or against or abstain on the Deal. It is about what message they suggest they will be pursuing in the future.
Route 1: Accept the Deal. Say that you will work to improve on it and negotiate further deals in the future that covers areas about which the deal is silent. Whether it be freedom of movement or services or whatever.
Route 2: Repudiate the Deal. Say that your objective is to tear it up completely and pursue some other 'off the shelf solution'. Whether that be EEA or even rejoining the EU or something else.
I think route 1 is the route to go down. Route 2 is just sending a message that you they will be refighting the battles of 2016 for ever. And totally ignores how our relationship with the EU in future may be influenced by whatever arrangements have been negotiated with other countries in teh world.
I suspect the ERG will do 2 and will probably do OK as a result. Farage will send out mixed messages as well but will in the end probably go for 2 as well. It will do fine for him too.
Apologies if this is very old news, but is it true that the Oxford/AZN vaccine is a 'Coronavirus' vaccine rather than a 'Covid-19' vaccine, making it efficacious against all mutations and indeed all coronaviruses?
Is your answer, that there is no evidence it helps against other coronaviruses, or that there is evidence it makes no difference? (And could this vary by vaccine type?)
What will happen to SW Lib Dem voters now Brexit is done? Any chance they reclaim their former heartlands now?
I am not an expert on the Lib Dems!
I think there's only one seat in the South West where the LDs have a meaningful chance of winning in the next two election cycles: St Ives. (Which is rather more "Remainy" than most of the rest of the SW.)
It will be interesting to see how the local elections play out in 2021
In the Cornwall Unitary Authority the LDs were about seven points behind the Conservatives in 2017, getting 29% of the vote. In Devon (at the County Council level), the LDs were second with a fairly feeble 21%. Right now, you'd expect the LDs to fall back a bit, but who knows what's happening on the ground.
The concerning thing for the LDs in the SW is that in several parliamentary seats where they were traditionally at least the second place, they still haven't recovered to that positiion. Granted everyone has always said the LD vote was more Brexity than in other places here, but it is still concerning.
In 2017 they probably expected a better result in several places in the locals, but it did seem to take place in that sweet spot after the calling of the GE, but before the Tory lead against Labour ebbed away, and in Wiltshire the Tories one several seats they were not expecting to win.
I have no idea about Cornwall given how dramatic the seat changes are there though. But despite some energetic efforts and better parliamentary results than the LDs, it's hard to see Lab winning many seats across much of the SW like Wiltshire, so if the Tories face a tough time, as you'd think would be the case 11 years into national government, only the LDs are well placed.
Comments
However a Starmer premiership would likely see a shift to a softer Brexit Deal and devomax for Holyrood making a Yes vote less likely anyway
EVEL was, presumably, really targeted at Labour and the LDs, on that logic. Which is an interesting interpretation of Tory party policy in [edit] 2014 of course - not 2017, silly me. As if they saw this coming.
The 99% of Scots remaining who are not fishermen will be grateful for a Deal not No Deal Brexit
The Conservative and Labour Party have monopolised the centre on this. They can't outflank UKIP or the Tory Right. They will probably make EEA their future policy, and they want to be in the position to say "well, of course we voted against the deal because we wanted EEA." That's a hell of a lot easier message to sell than "of course, we voted for the Deal because really we were voting against No Deal, and actually we want EEA."
Especially as there is no actual risk of No Deal happening.
I just find it weird that the purpose behind it - occasionally ambiguous, but in this instance demonstrated by subsequent actual commentary confirming its purpose - should be denied.
There's no need for anyone to be coy about their purposes among the anonymous and pseudonymous.
What'd it take - what are the good things. Voting against the deal just looks like daft marginalism.
The question before MPs is fairly simple, do you agree this is a good deal or not. Given the usual Tory approach he is in an impossible situation anyway. If he votes for it in years to come his support will be thrown in his face as it goes badly. If he votes against then he will perversely described as being in favour of a no deal. It is the typical Tory approach of giving people two bad choices and then bullying them into supporting the least worst.
It is a game that I think he is sensible not to play. If you think the deal is bad vote against it, if you think it is good support it. That way, at least we know where people stand.
If I were Scots, I would vote independence 100%. These Brexiteer jingos make me embarrassed* to be British.
"Though of course, being embarrassed and offended by my countrymen shows what an authentic Brit I am! 🤣
--AS
We haven't really thought about what it is, exactly, we want our fishing policy to achieve.
I'd have guessed 10k.
By hitching a ride on a very specific social narrative, conservatives on both sides of the Atlantic have been able to make electoral hay in recent years. But they're also hitched to a dying worldview.
Again.
Edit: I'm not sure if they actually live ashore at all. Or what their tax situation is.
This deal gives the EU all it wants for manufacturing but sells the UK service sector out. It takes away rights and gives us practically nothing in return.
Politically I think it is a fair gamble for the LDs. They can, if Brexit goes badly, say that they always thought it was a bad idea and the actual deal is a bad deal. At that stage no one will be worried that no deal might have been worse and even if they do I suspect the LDs would contest that was not the responsibility of their 11 MPs.
--AS
It also delivered a Canada style trade deal with the EU 44% of Scots would be happy with with only 29% unhappy according to Yougov
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price- (page 6 poll link at bottom)
Let's hope a few more find opportunity.
(I hadn't realised until very recently that part of the awkwardness about these discussions was just that our fishermen sold the rights)
I am not an expert on the Lib Dems!
Labour faces the greater challenge, having to explain, “ yes, well I know we are the opposition and all, but we voted in favour of what happened, not because we wanted it to happen, oh no, but because had we not voted for what happened, something else might have happened which we wanted even less than what happened, so we voted for what we didn’t want to happen to avoid what would otherwise have happened from happening. But we oppose it all the same, just not quite as much as we would have opposed the other thing.”
January may well be grim for deaths, but I would hope that by the second half of the month, the new hospitalisations number will be coming down meaningfully.
And that poll is FOUR YEARS AND FOUR MONTHS old.
I think that there is a misconception that people wanted Brexit for the sake of it. They wanted Brexit because they were told it would make their life better. If life in the SW does not improve the Tories are likely to be in trouble.
I think we're relying on Tier 4 to get on top of hospitalizations, until a wider group has been vaccinated. Also we need to get on top of hospital-acquired COVID, which is an increasing problem. I wonder if this is because the previous infection controls were adequate to suppressing the old variant, but not the new. (Plus of course the raw numbers of COVID infected in hospital).
--AS
--AS
Of course it depends whether they have any ambition of returning to the sort of national relevance that they had in 2009. Or just want to remain as a very minor party seeing getting 20 seats as a success.
*OK. One person at least.
There's a lot of comfortable and confident perspectives today understandably in the immediate warm afterglow and relief of the deal, but although it's a cliche that echoes down the four years, it's worth reminding that we are *still* in the transition period for the next four days or so. There may be plenty of problems in the new year, and thus plenty of opportunities for the LDs to now make greater hay with them than Labour.
Arsenal 3 Chelsea 0 after 60 minutes
When I finally quit trawlers in 85 we were down to only being able to fish 6 weeks of the year. The skipper could no longer make any money because a boat costs maintenance money whether it goes to sea or not.
He had two choices go slowly bankrupt or lay off the crew and sell his quota. People always make it sound like fisherman were queuing up to sell their quota's gleefully. I am sure some of the large concerns that ran a fleet might have been but not the independents
Route 1: Accept the Deal. Say that you will work to improve on it and negotiate further deals in the future that covers areas about which the deal is silent. Whether it be freedom of movement or services or whatever.
Route 2: Repudiate the Deal. Say that your objective is to tear it up completely and pursue some other 'off the shelf solution'. Whether that be EEA or even rejoining the EU or something else.
I think route 1 is the route to go down. Route 2 is just sending a message that you they will be refighting the battles of 2016 for ever. And totally ignores how our relationship with the EU in future may be influenced by whatever arrangements have been negotiated with other countries in teh world.
Over the next decade or so due to the crapness of the common fishing policy more and more species became overfished and x decreased.
If you care to suggest how an independent skipper can keep a boat and crew running when they are only allowed to fish 6 weeks of the year then feel free to expound.
Selling something when your choice is either go bankrupt or sell is not a choice.
Can't see that happening again, Starmer is very popular with Lib Dem voters.
Betting tip: Guildford to go Lib Dem
It will be interesting to see how the local elections play out in 2021
In the Cornwall Unitary Authority the LDs were about seven points behind the Conservatives in 2017, getting 29% of the vote. In Devon (at the County Council level), the LDs were second with a fairly feeble 21%. Right now, you'd expect the LDs to fall back a bit, but who knows what's happening on the ground.
Also fishing pays less than it did because fleets hire cheap deck hands from third countries as he noted. When I went to sea a deck hand would get paid a percentage from the catch.....now I suspect those philipinno deck hands probably get less than minimum wage
I think many on the Left think it's a very short step from saying you love your country (and here's why.. etc) to invading Poland. So they don't. At all. And just sneer at British nationhood instead - seeing it as an obstacle to their favoured progressive politics.
It's total nonsense, of course, but explains a lot - not least of which why they keep losing elections.
So, the actual mix of fishing boats and what they're landing (and where) is a lot more complex than the headlines.
(Also- I thought I was a pragmatic soft remainer. I expected to be a bit sad, a bit ho hum, a lot make the best of it. I'm still mainly concerned about practicalities, but the "UK won" nonsense of the last 48 hours has made me more emotionally regretful much more than I expected.)
Do you expect LibDem election literature through these elections will still be significantly dominated by the EU? Ever since the referendum they have increasingly seemed to set out to campaign as an almost single issue party. Does anyone know what else they stand for any more (and i admit it may simply be that EU policy has drowned out everything else and i am complicit in not knowing that).
Or will they be able to return to more broad based campaigning over a range of issues that have direct relevance to voters? In 2019 they campaigned on stopping Brexit. It got them nowhere. Are they really going to move forward campaigning on reversing it?
Those on the Leave side who have shouted loudest about Parliamentary sovereignty and democracy are those who have done the most to ensure the sidelining of Parliament and the minimum of scrutiny for this, the most important of agreements and one which is intended to set Britain's course in the world for the next few years.
Whatever they are they are not true democrats.
If they were they would want to spell out exactly what this means for this country: not just the advantages - and there will be some for some people anyway, but the costs and trade-offs, who wins and who loses within this country. They would want to do what they often accuse the pro-Common Market side of not doing all those decades ago, of spelling out what departure really means. Instead they will rely on exhaustion and relief and our worries about Covid to slip this through, unread, unscrutinised, barely understood and hope to have departed for more lucrative roles before people realise the reality.
It is shaming that a country which likes to boast about having the mother of Parliaments behaves in this way. But the reality is that we now have government by decree, with little debate, even less scrutiny and as little accountability as it can get away with.
Is your answer, that there is no evidence it helps against other coronaviruses, or that there is evidence it makes no difference? (And could this vary by vaccine type?)
In 2017 they probably expected a better result in several places in the locals, but it did seem to take place in that sweet spot after the calling of the GE, but before the Tory lead against Labour ebbed away, and in Wiltshire the Tories one several seats they were not expecting to win.
I have no idea about Cornwall given how dramatic the seat changes are there though. But despite some energetic efforts and better parliamentary results than the LDs, it's hard to see Lab winning many seats across much of the SW like Wiltshire, so if the Tories face a tough time, as you'd think would be the case 11 years into national government, only the LDs are well placed.