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Speed reading – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,683
edited December 2020 in General
Speed reading – politicalbetting.com

We are all Eddie Lister and Allegra Stratton after 2020 pic.twitter.com/3NnYVy5y5E

Read the full story here

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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,759
    The first skirmishes of the next war.
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    Well the Brexit debates have often resembled the Battle of the Somme.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,953
    Allegra thinking "I have to go out there and sell this shit on Live TV"...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,444
    edited December 2020
    For work I'm having to read this agreement, at times it seems like it was originally written in German and French and we've put the text into google translate then C&P'd it.
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    Well the Brexit debates have often resembled the Battle of the Somme.

    Channeling the Brexiteer Pollyannas, combined German and French losses were much greater than those of the British?
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,541
    Everything that is true about the unscrutinised nature of the agreement with regard to the interests of the UK are equally true of the EU and its 27 member states. There is a LPF with regard to unscrutiny and the associated capacity to unravel. It appears that the timing, which maximises this in every possible way, suits both the UK government and the EU.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    RobD said:

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MaxPB said:

    I'm honestly quite surprised by how well Frost and his team have done. The whole team deserve a lot of praise for what they've achieved. Getting Boris to speak to Ursula at the end to sideline Barnier for the final three issues was surely the best bit of politicking of the whole process.

    This is hilarious

    You do realise that "side-lining Barnier" also meant side-lining Frost, right?

    That's not rain guys, BoZo really is pissing on you...
    Scott, the Brexiteers have won the war. It's over. The fightback to rejoin, probably not in my lifetime starts here.

    I am loving the rewriting of very recent history to confirm Johnson's triumph on here, it is laughable. Some of the comments are so monstrous, one could write them on the side of a bus.

    Over and out!
    There is no fight to rejoin, it's over. We're out, rejoin is going to have the support of at most 10% of the electorate, it's time to find new issues to talk about and to find consensus elsewhere. Labour has a new opportunity now to do that.
    Rejoin will be a minority passion at the next GE, but may well be a growing movement after that. I expect it to be via the salami technique, until there is none of Brexit left. We have passed peak Brexit already.
    I don't think that's correct. After all, we are still in the transition period.
    This may well be the big political question of the UK short term, and the answer is that ‘it depends’.

    Having won their victory, sensible Brexiters would welcome the accommodation reached with the EU, and pivot back towards the common ground in the centre in order to consolidate their new reality, and ensure we have the best chance of making a good fist of our new economic circumstances.

    History, however, suggests that having won a victory based on waging a culture war, the responsible politicians will find it ever so tempting to pick at new cultural divides in order to lever further political successes.

    The latter course, while quite possibly unlocking new short term victories will, sooner or later, generate a counter-reaction that risks sweeping the whole lot away.
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    I can (and have) read the Lord of the Rings in a weekend.
    It was probably much better written though, with fewer indices.
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    Well the Brexit debates have often resembled the Battle of the Somme.

    Channeling the Brexiteer Pollyannas, combined German and French losses were much greater than those of the British?
    There is that, I suppose it could be more like the First Battle of Marne and the beginning of a long period of trench warfare?
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    Foxy said:

    To be honest, there isn't much point in reading it before the vote. It's not as if it can be modified.

    Exactly. The deal is done. Get on with it. Enjoy the aftermath.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    As above, the only question here is whether Brexiter MPs are prepared to re-engage in the real political world and embrace this deal as something to champion and take forward (as, to his credit, Farage has realised) - or whether they are going to underline the essential futility of their ideological purity and posture and pose by abstaining or opposing the government deal.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,641
    A fair result, both sides played well, some great goals too. Leicester's first draw of the season.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,953
    This is another key point

    https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1342819369395564544

    However bad or good the deal is, it would have been significantly better if exactly the same deal was signed a year ago...
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,306
    I wouldn’t fancy a wine made of those grapes!


    And btw LOTR is excellent.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    You think it won't last more than a few years, Alistair?
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,156
    Scott_xP said:

    This is another key point

    https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1342819369395564544

    However bad or good the deal is, it would have been significantly better if exactly the same deal was signed a year ago...

    Crying over spilt milk.
    O whey o whey!

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    IanB2 said:

    As above, the only question here is whether Brexiter MPs are prepared to re-engage in the real political world and embrace this deal as something to champion and take forward (as, to his credit, Farage has realised) - or whether they are going to underline the essential futility of their ideological purity and posture and pose by abstaining or opposing the government deal.

    Some of them aren't, like Redwood.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Boris has been on camera saying that it is a useful tactic in life to give the slight impression you are deliberately pretending not to know what is going on, as the reality may be that you don't know what is going on but people won't be able to tell the difference.

    He is a bit too cavalier in testing that out for my liking.
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    So our Christmas truce has passed and we're all back to arguing about Brexit.

    What next? Scottish Independence?

    The arguments about Brexit will go on ad infinitum amongst those who are really exercised by it, but the country at large can move on. Most of the general population neither knows nor cares about fishing rights or the Erasmus scheme. I anticipate teething problems at the border in the New Year, but once they're sorted out the issue will fade into the background.

    Scottish independence is a different matter. That pantomime will keep playing on a continuous loop until the nationalists win one of their future referendums and get away. Victory in the second one is a strong possibility for them, but even if they lose again they're so well dug in that the argument will never go away. If indyref 2 goes down then the campaign for indyref 3 starts the following morning.
    No it doesn't, Yes to independence from Canada got 49% in the second Quebec referendum in 1995 and 25 years later there has still not been a third as devomax for Quebec resolved the issue.
    The SNP are going nowhere, and unless they're badly weakened (and, having taken over as the dominant centre-left party, there's no sign of that happening) then they'll be in Government, either continuously or at regular intervals, until the year dot. This is the product of a very large and entrenched fraction of the electorate that has made up its mind that it wants independence, and a fragmented collection of weak, unpopular and useless opposition parties.

    This isn't going to be like Quebec (besides anything else, "devomax" - whatever that turns out to be - isn't on offer, and even that wouldn't stop the loud, continuous complaints of being hard done by.) The only way anyone on either side of the border is going to get any peace is when they go.
    Wait a moment. The Quebec National Assembly has been continuously controlled by nationalists since the demise of the Union Nationale.

    All the parties in Quebec National Assembly (including the Liberal party) are various shades of nationalists. Apart from in the West Montreal suburbs, you just would not get many votes in Quebec if you weren't some shade of nationalist.

    Quebec has far more power than Scotland, and has been allowed to go its own way in Canada with a much more generous hand by the loose central Government (which has often had a Quebecois at its helm).
    I remain to be convinced that the English electorate - or, at any rate, a large enough fraction of it to make a big difference - will tolerate either a Government propped up by Scots Nats MPs, or a Prime Minister representing a Scottish seat, ever again. Certainly if there's any danger of the Conservatives losing their majority come the next General Election then the SNP will be used as a stick with which to beat Keir Starmer. But time will tell.
    I think most people will have absolutely no problem with a PM representing a Scottish constituency, if that ever happens.
    One would hope so. But surely EVEL is the issue.

    Edit: Because the PM is necessarily responsivble for English domestic policy. Unless that is resolved by the "UK" parliament being made a truly federal one, with England taken out of that equation by being given its own pmt or pmts.
    It always comes back to the Big Train Set problem. A federal settlement with an English Parliament is the necessary condition to try to hold the UK together, but the leaders of the main political parties want to play with the whole train set. They don't want to be made to choose between being PM or FM.

    I mean, I think the Scottish situation is so far advanced that the Union is beyond saving anyway, but they don't even want to try.
    That's the trouble. Can you possibly imagine any non-Tory Scottish PM - or potential PM - whom the Tories wouldn't monster with every possible angle? It'd be like Mr Miliband in Mr Salmond's pocket, only ten times worse. And yet the Tories are supposed to be Unionists. With EVEL and then the Miliband/Salmomnd posters, the Tories didn't so much not try as positively to reject the idea of an equal union with all MPs counting together - tear it up and then widdle all over it (and that's quite separate from the known asymmetries of the Blairite devolution settlement, which we all know about).
    I think the Salmond posters coudl quite easily make the point that being in the pocket of nationalists, not merely scots, would be a problem. However I do think you are right that there are far too many people who object to a Scottish PM as an issue in itself. No it hasn't been that long since we had one, but it does feel different to me now, and that is hugely problematic for the Union.

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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561
    The deal is getting about as much UK Parliamentary scrutiny as most EU directives did before they were transposed into UK law. In fact more than most.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,641
    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This is another key point

    https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1342819369395564544

    However bad or good the deal is, it would have been significantly better if exactly the same deal was signed a year ago...

    Crying over spilt milk.
    O whey o whey!

    @ydoethur will butter that...
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,197
    Scott_xP said:

    Allegra thinking "I have to go out there and sell this shit on Live TV"...

    If she ruffles her hair, puts on oversized clothing and speaks in gibberish she'll be fine.
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    I wonder why Foch thought Versailles wouldn't stick? Did he think it was too lenient to the Germans, and liable to generate a nationalist reaction in France?
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,759
    DavidL said:

    I wouldn’t fancy a wine made of those grapes!


    And btw LOTR is excellent.

    Of course, it grew out of Tolkien's experiences in the trenches.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282

    I can (and have) read the Lord of the Rings in a weekend.
    It was probably much better written though, with fewer indices.

    A lot of effort when you can just uncork some booze and lie back and watch the three films ;)
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,156
    Foxy said:

    geoffw said:

    Scott_xP said:

    This is another key point

    https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1342819369395564544

    However bad or good the deal is, it would have been significantly better if exactly the same deal was signed a year ago...

    Crying over spilt milk.
    O whey o whey!

    @ydoethur will butter that...
    Only if the past nips his fancy.

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    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Has anyone actually checked that they haven't slotted an LOTR chapter in somewhere, just for shits and giggles, just to check anyone is actually reading it?
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    I wonder why Foch thought Versailles wouldn't stick? Did he think it was too lenient to the Germans, and liable to generate a nationalist reaction in France?

    Too lenient on the Germans, he wanted France to permanently occupy the Rhineland to stop future German aggression and secure peace for France.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    edited December 2020
    I take slight issue with a bit of phrasing in this header, where it says 'But it won't be explored in detail. So this agreement is likely to fail to bring an end the interminable trench warfare about British-EU relations'.

    I absolutely agree that it is not good that so little time is available for Parliament to actually read and discuss the thing (something the EU also seems to regard on its end as needless), and agree that it is unlikely to bring an end to the trench warfare, but I don't think it likely that will fair because of it not being explored in detail. Even though it should still be explored in detail, I don't think anyone truly believes that lack of exploration will have changed anything, as it is a political matter. But the phrasing implies the lack of exploration causes the failure. They are two separate issues of complaint I think.

    I do say again though that I think secretly many MPs will be happy they do not have time to read it. Not many would have anyway, and many who did wouldn't understand it as these things are pretty inpenetrable, and whilst it will not be much of an excuse, they will be in a position down the line to say any problems are not their fault, as they were given so little time to look at it.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    Fishing said:

    The deal is getting about as much UK Parliamentary scrutiny as most EU directives did before they were transposed into UK law. In fact more than most.

    Am I missing something, or are these mostly the same people that thought proroguing parliament was an acceptable strategy?

    That said, they are right now, and wrong then. Sadly, chief clown has played it long in part because it deprives his troops of time to look at the detail.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,759

    Has anyone actually checked that they haven't slotted an LOTR chapter in somewhere, just for shits and giggles, just to check anyone is actually reading it?

    I've read that there was, in Victorian times, a long and excruciatingly boring speech in the HoC which hacked off the Times typesetter so much he got fed up and insertned something along the lines of 'The Rt Hon member then said, "*** this for a game of soldiers, I'm off to Dolly's brothel for a good rogering"' or words to that effect. Unfortunately someone did actually read it, but not till after it had been published ...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    DavidL said:

    I wouldn’t fancy a wine made of those grapes!

    And btw LOTR is excellent.

    It is, but Tolkein could still have used an editor.

    I have been reading some older literature this year, and it's interesting how styles change though - some early 20th Century stuff feels of a kind with the mid 19th Century and earlier stuff, but some stuff from the 50s practically feels like it could have been written today.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    IanB2 said:

    I can (and have) read the Lord of the Rings in a weekend.
    It was probably much better written though, with fewer indices.

    A lot of effort when you can just uncork some booze and lie back and watch the three films ;)
    It's Part II that always foxes me.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Foxy said:

    Nearly time for the Family Zoom, so time for a little joke:

    Breaking News: The whole of Cornwall has been placed into tier 4 lockdown after hundreds of pirates returned home to Penzance to celebrate Christmas with their families.

    Apparently the Arrrrr rate has increased dramatically.....

    Your coat, sir.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,405

    I wonder why Foch thought Versailles wouldn't stick? Did he think it was too lenient to the Germans, and liable to generate a nationalist reaction in France?

    Foch (like most of the French high command) wanted a peace that would permanently put Germany on the back foot. Breaking Germany up was discussed, *annexing* the Ruhr was also talked about.

    Foch believed that within 20 years, the *will too enforce* Versailles would fail. Since there were no *structural* changes in the treaty, Germany would then regain her strength (greater than France)) and, he assumed, go to war once again.

    Note that after WWII the Allies made sure that the settlement was structural on multiple levels

    - Breakup of Germany
    - Permanent occupation of Germany
    - Abolition of Prussia (assumed to be the heart of German militarism)
    - Complete reconstruction of the civic institutions of Germany.
    - Ethnic cleansing of German populations from the rest of Europe/Russia.
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    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. kle4, one book I keep meaning to read is Iron Heel, by Jack London, an early dystopian story. I wonder how that holds up.

    King Cole, at dawn on the fifth day, look to the east.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,156
    Why should anyone sane read the report? That should be left to MPs and lawyers who are paid for their efforts to pick out nits. There is a 35 page executive summary for the rest of us.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    edited December 2020
    IanB2 said:

    I can (and have) read the Lord of the Rings in a weekend.
    It was probably much better written though, with fewer indices.

    A lot of effort when you can just uncork some booze and lie back and watch the three films ;)
    If you are watching the extended cuts in particular, the book can pretty easily be finished in a shorter time

    I love the movies. Watched all 3 Hobbit films and all three LOTR films (usually do around Christmas time), and the latter definitely hold up beyond simple nostalgia, as the underwhelming Hobbit films had me worried was the case.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    edited December 2020
    geoffw said:

    Why should anyone sane read the report? That should be left to MPs and lawyers who are paid for their efforts to pick out nits. There is a 35 page executive summary for the rest of us.

    And non-government summaries will soon be up, I assume. I tried reading May's WA. It was mostly incomprehensible and dependent on understanding reference to countless legalistic protocols, so I don't think I got much from it.

    But it has been noted as a problem for a while that even MPs are not well prepared or practiced in actually scrutinising or understanding legislation (or treaties). It's not a skill they are encouraged in politically or procedurally, and is unlikely to benefit their careers if they try to put in the time and effort.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,444
    edited December 2020
    Final post on the World War I analogies.

    Boris Johnson should remember than the Lion of Verdun soon became a traitor in the eyes of most French people two decades later.

    I suspect the trial of Boris Johnson would be similarly shambolic.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990

    I wonder why Foch thought Versailles wouldn't stick? Did he think it was too lenient to the Germans, and liable to generate a nationalist reaction in France?

    Foch (like most of the French high command) wanted a peace that would permanently put Germany on the back foot. Breaking Germany up was discussed, *annexing* the Ruhr was also talked about.

    Foch believed that within 20 years, the *will too enforce* Versailles would fail. Since there were no *structural* changes in the treaty, Germany would then regain her strength (greater than France)) and, he assumed, go to war once again.

    Note that after WWII the Allies made sure that the settlement was structural on multiple levels

    - Breakup of Germany
    - Permanent occupation of Germany
    - Abolition of Prussia (assumed to be the heart of German militarism)
    - Complete reconstruction of the civic institutions of Germany.
    - Ethnic cleansing of German populations from the rest of Europe/Russia.
    I don't think any of those were, as far as the West was concerned anyway, expected to be permanent. Apart possibly from 3, and Prussia had changed so much over the years that there were probably no genuine Prussians there anyway.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,156
    kle4 said:

    geoffw said:

    Why should anyone sane read the report? That should be left to MPs and lawyers who are paid for their efforts to pick out nits. There is a 35 page executive summary for the rest of us.

    And non-government summaries will soon be up, I assume. I tried reading May's WA. It was mostly incomprehensible and dependent on understanding reference to countless legalistic protocols, so I don't think I got much from it.

    But it has been noted as a problem for a while that even MPs are not well prepared or practiced in actually scrutinising or understanding legislation (or treaties). It's not a skill they are encouraged in politically or procedurally, and is unlikely to benefit their careers if they try to put in the time and effort.
    The MPs of the ERG group have said they are reading it before they form a view.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225
    Contra consensus -

    Yes, slippery bugger Johnson again escapes scrutiny - bad - but why should parliament get to vote on a trade deal? Why not a matter for the executive?

    If it had not been for this requirement last time, the Meaningful Vote, we'd have had arguably a better outcome.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    geoffw said:

    kle4 said:

    geoffw said:

    Why should anyone sane read the report? That should be left to MPs and lawyers who are paid for their efforts to pick out nits. There is a 35 page executive summary for the rest of us.

    And non-government summaries will soon be up, I assume. I tried reading May's WA. It was mostly incomprehensible and dependent on understanding reference to countless legalistic protocols, so I don't think I got much from it.

    But it has been noted as a problem for a while that even MPs are not well prepared or practiced in actually scrutinising or understanding legislation (or treaties). It's not a skill they are encouraged in politically or procedurally, and is unlikely to benefit their careers if they try to put in the time and effort.
    The MPs of the ERG group have said they are reading it before they form a view.
    Which I actually appreciate. I'd doubt that it actually makes much difference, but at least they are going through the proper motions of reading and (seeking) to understand it.
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    geoffw said:

    kle4 said:

    geoffw said:

    Why should anyone sane read the report? That should be left to MPs and lawyers who are paid for their efforts to pick out nits. There is a 35 page executive summary for the rest of us.

    And non-government summaries will soon be up, I assume. I tried reading May's WA. It was mostly incomprehensible and dependent on understanding reference to countless legalistic protocols, so I don't think I got much from it.

    But it has been noted as a problem for a while that even MPs are not well prepared or practiced in actually scrutinising or understanding legislation (or treaties). It's not a skill they are encouraged in politically or procedurally, and is unlikely to benefit their careers if they try to put in the time and effort.
    The MPs of the ERG group have said they are reading it before they form a view.
    You mean like they read Mrs May's deal and Boris Johnson's withdrawal agreement then took them nine months to realise they had been duped?
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,156

    I wonder why Foch thought Versailles wouldn't stick? Did he think it was too lenient to the Germans, and liable to generate a nationalist reaction in France?

    Foch (like most of the French high command) wanted a peace that would permanently put Germany on the back foot. Breaking Germany up was discussed, *annexing* the Ruhr was also talked about.

    Foch believed that within 20 years, the *will too enforce* Versailles would fail. Since there were no *structural* changes in the treaty, Germany would then regain her strength (greater than France)) and, he assumed, go to war once again.

    Note that after WWII the Allies made sure that the settlement was structural on multiple levels

    - Breakup of Germany
    - Permanent occupation of Germany
    - Abolition of Prussia (assumed to be the heart of German militarism)
    - Complete reconstruction of the civic institutions of Germany.
    - Ethnic cleansing of German populations from the rest of Europe/Russia.
    I don't think any of those were, as far as the West was concerned anyway, expected to be permanent. Apart possibly from 3, and Prussia had changed so much over the years that there were probably no genuine Prussians there anyway.
    Echt deutsch, stamm aus Litauen ..
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750

    geoffw said:

    kle4 said:

    geoffw said:

    Why should anyone sane read the report? That should be left to MPs and lawyers who are paid for their efforts to pick out nits. There is a 35 page executive summary for the rest of us.

    And non-government summaries will soon be up, I assume. I tried reading May's WA. It was mostly incomprehensible and dependent on understanding reference to countless legalistic protocols, so I don't think I got much from it.

    But it has been noted as a problem for a while that even MPs are not well prepared or practiced in actually scrutinising or understanding legislation (or treaties). It's not a skill they are encouraged in politically or procedurally, and is unlikely to benefit their careers if they try to put in the time and effort.
    The MPs of the ERG group have said they are reading it before they form a view.
    You mean like they read Mrs May's deal and Boris Johnson's withdrawal agreement then took them nine months to realise they had been duped?
    Many of the ERG still didn't support May's deal of course (though I believe a majority ended up doing so, including Boris). But at least they are presenting as reading the things, perhaps even doing so, even if it does not change that they will be guided by politics.
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    Well the Brexit debates have often resembled the Battle of the Somme.

    Channeling the Brexiteer Pollyannas, combined German and French losses were much greater than those of the British?
    There is that, I suppose it could be more like the First Battle of Marne and the beginning of a long period of trench warfare?
    And the real naive dumbos saying it is/will be over at Christmas.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,197

    My view on the deal after reading most of it.

    It allows for Brexit but it also for closer alignment in the future if we so desire.

    I think the deal has ended Rejoin for a generation, and I mean a proper generation, not one of those pissant Scottish generations.

    Indeed, I am hoping for a successful Referendum result for my 80th birthday in a little over 21 years. Although assuming I remain in Wales rejoining could come sooner, maybe for my 70th.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    geoffw said:

    I wonder why Foch thought Versailles wouldn't stick? Did he think it was too lenient to the Germans, and liable to generate a nationalist reaction in France?

    Foch (like most of the French high command) wanted a peace that would permanently put Germany on the back foot. Breaking Germany up was discussed, *annexing* the Ruhr was also talked about.

    Foch believed that within 20 years, the *will too enforce* Versailles would fail. Since there were no *structural* changes in the treaty, Germany would then regain her strength (greater than France)) and, he assumed, go to war once again.

    Note that after WWII the Allies made sure that the settlement was structural on multiple levels

    - Breakup of Germany
    - Permanent occupation of Germany
    - Abolition of Prussia (assumed to be the heart of German militarism)
    - Complete reconstruction of the civic institutions of Germany.
    - Ethnic cleansing of German populations from the rest of Europe/Russia.
    I don't think any of those were, as far as the West was concerned anyway, expected to be permanent. Apart possibly from 3, and Prussia had changed so much over the years that there were probably no genuine Prussians there anyway.
    Echt deutsch, stamm aus Litauen ..
    Hmm. Lots of 'ethnic Germans' in the Baltic States, no? Many generations, back to the Knights, AIUI. Having said that a relation by marriage who, like his father etc before, had lived in Russia for many years before the Revolution, came back to the UK. His English was fine, his wife's not so much.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,405

    I wonder why Foch thought Versailles wouldn't stick? Did he think it was too lenient to the Germans, and liable to generate a nationalist reaction in France?

    Foch (like most of the French high command) wanted a peace that would permanently put Germany on the back foot. Breaking Germany up was discussed, *annexing* the Ruhr was also talked about.

    Foch believed that within 20 years, the *will too enforce* Versailles would fail. Since there were no *structural* changes in the treaty, Germany would then regain her strength (greater than France)) and, he assumed, go to war once again.

    Note that after WWII the Allies made sure that the settlement was structural on multiple levels

    - Breakup of Germany
    - Permanent occupation of Germany
    - Abolition of Prussia (assumed to be the heart of German militarism)
    - Complete reconstruction of the civic institutions of Germany.
    - Ethnic cleansing of German populations from the rest of Europe/Russia.
    I don't think any of those were, as far as the West was concerned anyway, expected to be permanent. Apart possibly from 3, and Prussia had changed so much over the years that there were probably no genuine Prussians there anyway.
    Was was expected to be permanent was that the -

    (a) The ability of Germany to wage war *militarily* was to to be removed - Germany, to this day doesn't have the logistical capability to do anything much beyond it's own borders.
    (b) The ability of Germany to wage war *politically* was removed.

    The means by which these 2 were achieved evolved with the Cold War. But the goal was constant - a Germany that was *unable* and *unwilling* to fight an aggressive war.
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    I wonder why Foch thought Versailles wouldn't stick? Did he think it was too lenient to the Germans, and liable to generate a nationalist reaction in France?

    Foch (like most of the French high command) wanted a peace that would permanently put Germany on the back foot. Breaking Germany up was discussed, *annexing* the Ruhr was also talked about.

    Foch believed that within 20 years, the *will too enforce* Versailles would fail. Since there were no *structural* changes in the treaty, Germany would then regain her strength (greater than France)) and, he assumed, go to war once again.

    Note that after WWII the Allies made sure that the settlement was structural on multiple levels

    - Breakup of Germany
    - Permanent occupation of Germany
    - Abolition of Prussia (assumed to be the heart of German militarism)
    - Complete reconstruction of the civic institutions of Germany.
    - Ethnic cleansing of German populations from the rest of Europe/Russia.
    Thanks for your reply (and TSE, too). The conventional wisdom taught in schools is that the terms were too harsh, destroying the German economy and fuelling their resurgence with extreme prejudice. Even with hindsight it isn't clear which flavour of criticism was correct, only that the "statesmanlike compromise" failed. Maybe this was Alastair's implied argument about the current Deal - that it won't eventually satisfy anyone and a further trial of strength is inevitable.

    Anyway, darkness is threatening. Must get outside for a stroll.
  • Options
    King Cole, Reise[sp] were an alternative crusading route that isn't as widely known about but was pretty big at the time. Henry Bolingbroke, the future Henry IV, when crusading in East.

    Mind you, the Fourth Crusade sacked a Christian city, and the Albigensian one was about the Cathar heresy in the south of France (and notable for almost all the protagonists being called Raymond).
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    kle4 said:

    Boris has been on camera saying that it is a useful tactic in life to give the slight impression you are deliberately pretending not to know what is going on, as the reality may be that you don't know what is going on but people won't be able to tell the difference.

    He is a bit too cavalier in testing that out for my liking.
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    So our Christmas truce has passed and we're all back to arguing about Brexit.

    What next? Scottish Independence?

    The arguments about Brexit will go on ad infinitum amongst those who are really exercised by it, but the country at large can move on. Most of the general population neither knows nor cares about fishing rights or the Erasmus scheme. I anticipate teething problems at the border in the New Year, but once they're sorted out the issue will fade into the background.

    Scottish independence is a different matter. That pantomime will keep playing on a continuous loop until the nationalists win one of their future referendums and get away. Victory in the second one is a strong possibility for them, but even if they lose again they're so well dug in that the argument will never go away. If indyref 2 goes down then the campaign for indyref 3 starts the following morning.
    No it doesn't, Yes to independence from Canada got 49% in the second Quebec referendum in 1995 and 25 years later there has still not been a third as devomax for Quebec resolved the issue.
    The SNP are going nowhere, and unless they're badly weakened (and, having taken over as the dominant centre-left party, there's no sign of that happening) then they'll be in Government, either continuously or at regular intervals, until the year dot. This is the product of a very large and entrenched fraction of the electorate that has made up its mind that it wants independence, and a fragmented collection of weak, unpopular and useless opposition parties.

    This isn't going to be like Quebec (besides anything else, "devomax" - whatever that turns out to be - isn't on offer, and even that wouldn't stop the loud, continuous complaints of being hard done by.) The only way anyone on either side of the border is going to get any peace is when they go.
    Wait a moment. The Quebec National Assembly has been continuously controlled by nationalists since the demise of the Union Nationale.

    All the parties in Quebec National Assembly (including the Liberal party) are various shades of nationalists. Apart from in the West Montreal suburbs, you just would not get many votes in Quebec if you weren't some shade of nationalist.

    Quebec has far more power than Scotland, and has been allowed to go its own way in Canada with a much more generous hand by the loose central Government (which has often had a Quebecois at its helm).
    I remain to be convinced that the English electorate - or, at any rate, a large enough fraction of it to make a big difference - will tolerate either a Government propped up by Scots Nats MPs, or a Prime Minister representing a Scottish seat, ever again. Certainly if there's any danger of the Conservatives losing their majority come the next General Election then the SNP will be used as a stick with which to beat Keir Starmer. But time will tell.
    I think most people will have absolutely no problem with a PM representing a Scottish constituency, if that ever happens.
    One would hope so. But surely EVEL is the issue.

    Edit: Because the PM is necessarily responsivble for English domestic policy. Unless that is resolved by the "UK" parliament being made a truly federal one, with England taken out of that equation by being given its own pmt or pmts.
    It always comes back to the Big Train Set problem. A federal settlement with an English Parliament is the necessary condition to try to hold the UK together, but the leaders of the main political parties want to play with the whole train set. They don't want to be made to choose between being PM or FM.

    I mean, I think the Scottish situation is so far advanced that the Union is beyond saving anyway, but they don't even want to try.
    That's the trouble. Can you possibly imagine any non-Tory Scottish PM - or potential PM - whom the Tories wouldn't monster with every possible angle? It'd be like Mr Miliband in Mr Salmond's pocket, only ten times worse. And yet the Tories are supposed to be Unionists. With EVEL and then the Miliband/Salmomnd posters, the Tories didn't so much not try as positively to reject the idea of an equal union with all MPs counting together - tear it up and then widdle all over it (and that's quite separate from the known asymmetries of the Blairite devolution settlement, which we all know about).
    I think the Salmond posters coudl quite easily make the point that being in the pocket of nationalists, not merely scots, would be a problem. However I do think you are right that there are far too many people who object to a Scottish PM as an issue in itself. No it hasn't been that long since we had one, but it does feel different to me now, and that is hugely problematic for the Union.

    There was a *lot* of rather poorly-disguised anti-Scottish sentiment intermingled with the opprobrium our last Scottish PM attracted, too. And yes, it was noticed in Scotland.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    edited December 2020

    My view on the deal after reading most of it.

    It allows for Brexit but it also for closer alignment in the future if we so desire.

    I think the deal has ended Rejoin for a generation, and I mean a proper generation, not one of those pissant Scottish generations.

    Indeed, I am hoping for a successful Referendum result for my 80th birthday in a little over 21 years. Although assuming I remain in Wales rejoining could come sooner, maybe for my 70th.
    I'll do my best to stay round. For both. Although TBH I think I MIGHT just see rUK re-joining sooner that that.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,405
    Foxy said:

    Nearly time for the Family Zoom, so time for a little joke:

    Breaking News: The whole of Cornwall has been placed into tier 4 lockdown after hundreds of pirates returned home to Penzance to celebrate Christmas with their families.

    Apparently the Arrrrr rate has increased dramatically.....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9ojK9Q_ARE
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    Oh well, what’s five and a half years of full access in the scheme of things? The fisher folk are known for their equanimity in such matters.

    https://twitter.com/glennbbc/status/1342822963947708419?s=21
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    edited December 2020

    Foxy said:

    Nearly time for the Family Zoom, so time for a little joke:

    Breaking News: The whole of Cornwall has been placed into tier 4 lockdown after hundreds of pirates returned home to Penzance to celebrate Christmas with their families.

    Apparently the Arrrrr rate has increased dramatically.....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9ojK9Q_ARE
    Barbossa was the best part of that movie. Silly, yes, but not as self consciously 'quirky' as Jack Sparrow.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,156

    geoffw said:

    I wonder why Foch thought Versailles wouldn't stick? Did he think it was too lenient to the Germans, and liable to generate a nationalist reaction in France?

    Foch (like most of the French high command) wanted a peace that would permanently put Germany on the back foot. Breaking Germany up was discussed, *annexing* the Ruhr was also talked about.

    Foch believed that within 20 years, the *will too enforce* Versailles would fail. Since there were no *structural* changes in the treaty, Germany would then regain her strength (greater than France)) and, he assumed, go to war once again.

    Note that after WWII the Allies made sure that the settlement was structural on multiple levels

    - Breakup of Germany
    - Permanent occupation of Germany
    - Abolition of Prussia (assumed to be the heart of German militarism)
    - Complete reconstruction of the civic institutions of Germany.
    - Ethnic cleansing of German populations from the rest of Europe/Russia.
    I don't think any of those were, as far as the West was concerned anyway, expected to be permanent. Apart possibly from 3, and Prussia had changed so much over the years that there were probably no genuine Prussians there anyway.
    Echt deutsch, stamm aus Litauen ..
    Hmm. Lots of 'ethnic Germans' in the Baltic States, no? Many generations, back to the Knights, AIUI. Having said that a relation by marriage who, like his father etc before, had lived in Russia for many years before the Revolution, came back to the UK. His English was fine, his wife's not so much.
    Oh yes, expanding the quote from Eliot you find Bin gar keine Russin, stamm' aus Litauen, echt deutsch.

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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990
    edited December 2020

    King Cole, Reise[sp] were an alternative crusading route that isn't as widely known about but was pretty big at the time. Henry Bolingbroke, the future Henry IV, when crusading in East.

    Mind you, the Fourth Crusade sacked a Christian city, and the Albigensian one was about the Cathar heresy in the south of France (and notable for almost all the protagonists being called Raymond).

    Yes, the Teutonic Knights and their exploits are an often neglected area of history. Was it you who recommended 'Europe's Forgotten Nations' to me?
    IIRC it was during the war between the Catholics and the Cathars that the victorious Bishop instructed his army, when asked whom they should spare in a 'half-and-half' city said 'Kill them all; God will know his own." Or similar.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,405

    I wonder why Foch thought Versailles wouldn't stick? Did he think it was too lenient to the Germans, and liable to generate a nationalist reaction in France?

    Foch (like most of the French high command) wanted a peace that would permanently put Germany on the back foot. Breaking Germany up was discussed, *annexing* the Ruhr was also talked about.

    Foch believed that within 20 years, the *will too enforce* Versailles would fail. Since there were no *structural* changes in the treaty, Germany would then regain her strength (greater than France)) and, he assumed, go to war once again.

    Note that after WWII the Allies made sure that the settlement was structural on multiple levels

    - Breakup of Germany
    - Permanent occupation of Germany
    - Abolition of Prussia (assumed to be the heart of German militarism)
    - Complete reconstruction of the civic institutions of Germany.
    - Ethnic cleansing of German populations from the rest of Europe/Russia.
    Thanks for your reply (and TSE, too). The conventional wisdom taught in schools is that the terms were too harsh, destroying the German economy and fuelling their resurgence with extreme prejudice. Even with hindsight it isn't clear which flavour of criticism was correct, only that the "statesmanlike compromise" failed. Maybe this was Alastair's implied argument about the current Deal - that it won't eventually satisfy anyone and a further trial of strength is inevitable.

    Anyway, darkness is threatening. Must get outside for a stroll.
    The reason the terms were seen as harsh were that the German Generals ran away like frightened children, then invented the stab in the back myth to cover their fucking up the war. So the German people thought they had a draw - and were presented with the consequences of a defeat.

    Hence Unconditional Surrender as a demand in WWII - the aim was to make it utterly clear beyond all doubt that the the Germans had completely, utterly and totally lost.

    The economy wasn't crushed by Versailles - any more than 1870 crushed France. The hyperinflation was (if you believe some people) an insane attempt to inflate the reparations away.

    As to the the Brexit deal - the question is whether either side is really interested in anything the other side has. I see it going more like Ireland after Independence - the deal got modified extensively over the years, but no-one really cared.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750

    King Cole, Reise[sp] were an alternative crusading route that isn't as widely known about but was pretty big at the time. Henry Bolingbroke, the future Henry IV, when crusading in East.

    Mind you, the Fourth Crusade sacked a Christian city, and the Albigensian one was about the Cathar heresy in the south of France (and notable for almost all the protagonists being called Raymond).

    Yes, the Teutonic Knights and their exploits are an often neglected area of history. Was it you who recommended 'Europe's Forgotten Nations' to me?
    IIRC it was during the war between the Catholics and the Cathars that the victorious Bishop instructed his army, when asked whom they should spare in a 'half-and-half' city said 'Kill them all; God will know his own." Or similar.
    Supposedly. Whether he said specifically that or not, he said things not far off it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caedite_eos._Novit_enim_Dominus_qui_sunt_eius.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067

    Oh well, what’s five and a half years of full access in the scheme of things? The fisher folk are known for their equanimity in such matters.

    I'm old enough to remember when Michael Gove and Ruth Davidson said we had to have full control from March 2019.

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/972750549471973376
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225
    edited December 2020
    geoffw said:

    kle4 said:

    geoffw said:

    Why should anyone sane read the report? That should be left to MPs and lawyers who are paid for their efforts to pick out nits. There is a 35 page executive summary for the rest of us.

    And non-government summaries will soon be up, I assume. I tried reading May's WA. It was mostly incomprehensible and dependent on understanding reference to countless legalistic protocols, so I don't think I got much from it.

    But it has been noted as a problem for a while that even MPs are not well prepared or practiced in actually scrutinising or understanding legislation (or treaties). It's not a skill they are encouraged in politically or procedurally, and is unlikely to benefit their careers if they try to put in the time and effort.
    The MPs of the ERG group have said they are reading it before they form a view.
    I think they'll be able to deal with it quite quickly. Just run the SEARCH function over the text on the term "European Court of Justice" - and to be safe cover the dreaded acronym too, "ECJ", just in case there's been some of the nefarious drafting so typical of Brussels - and if this generates a nil return, it's bang and bingo and chocks away and independent coastal state in full & deep contemplation of our own waters.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,197

    My view on the deal after reading most of it.

    It allows for Brexit but it also for closer alignment in the future if we so desire.

    I think the deal has ended Rejoin for a generation, and I mean a proper generation, not one of those pissant Scottish generations.

    Indeed, I am hoping for a successful Referendum result for my 80th birthday in a little over 21 years. Although assuming I remain in Wales rejoining could come sooner, maybe for my 70th.
    I'll do my best to stay round. For both. Although TBH I think I MIGHT just see rUK re-joining sooner that that.
    You have heartened me greatly @OldKingCole!

    Blwyddyn Newydd Dda!
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,405
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Nearly time for the Family Zoom, so time for a little joke:

    Breaking News: The whole of Cornwall has been placed into tier 4 lockdown after hundreds of pirates returned home to Penzance to celebrate Christmas with their families.

    Apparently the Arrrrr rate has increased dramatically.....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9ojK9Q_ARE
    Barbossa was the best part of that movie. Silly, yes, but not as self consciously 'quirky' as Jack Sparrow.
    The entrance by Jack Sparrow into Port Royal was magnificent.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rWai38hti8
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,156
    kinabalu said:

    geoffw said:

    kle4 said:

    geoffw said:

    Why should anyone sane read the report? That should be left to MPs and lawyers who are paid for their efforts to pick out nits. There is a 35 page executive summary for the rest of us.

    And non-government summaries will soon be up, I assume. I tried reading May's WA. It was mostly incomprehensible and dependent on understanding reference to countless legalistic protocols, so I don't think I got much from it.

    But it has been noted as a problem for a while that even MPs are not well prepared or practiced in actually scrutinising or understanding legislation (or treaties). It's not a skill they are encouraged in politically or procedurally, and is unlikely to benefit their careers if they try to put in the time and effort.
    The MPs of the ERG group have said they are reading it before they form a view.
    I think they'll be able to deal with it quite quickly. Just run the SEARCH function over the text on the term "European Court of Justice" - and to be safe cover the dreaded acronym too, "ECJ", just in case there's been some of the nefarious drafting so typical of Brussels - and if this generates a nil return, it's bang and bingo and chocks away and independent coastal state in full & deep contemplation of our own waters.
    Reading is so last century when you have a pdf file and a search function.

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    King Cole, I may've recommended Vanished Kingdoms, by Norman Davies, which sounds highly similar.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990

    My view on the deal after reading most of it.

    It allows for Brexit but it also for closer alignment in the future if we so desire.

    I think the deal has ended Rejoin for a generation, and I mean a proper generation, not one of those pissant Scottish generations.

    Indeed, I am hoping for a successful Referendum result for my 80th birthday in a little over 21 years. Although assuming I remain in Wales rejoining could come sooner, maybe for my 70th.
    I'll do my best to stay round. For both. Although TBH I think I MIGHT just see rUK re-joining sooner that that.
    You have heartened me greatly @OldKingCole!

    Blwyddyn Newydd Dda!
    Diolch yn fawr. Ac i chi
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990

    King Cole, I may've recommended Vanished Kingdoms, by Norman Davies, which sounds highly similar.

    That's the one. Highly informative. Makes one wonder about the reality of nationalism in North-Eastern Europe.
    Apart possibly from Estonia.
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    Oh well, what’s five and a half years of full access in the scheme of things? The fisher folk are known for their equanimity in such matters.

    I'm old enough to remember when Michael Gove and Ruth Davidson said we had to have full control from March 2019.

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/972750549471973376
    Disappointed and surprised not to see an extended tweet analysis from Ruth on this great deal. Hope she’s ok.
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    King Cole, yeah, it's a very interesting book. My only criticism would be that Byzantium (Byzantion, I think he calls it) isn't really covered. He acknowledges he can't do that in a chapter, which is reasonable, but does make me wonder why it was included...

    I found Burgundy (or the Burgundies, perhaps) to be perhaps the best chapter.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    Scott_xP said:

    This is another key point

    https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1342819369395564544

    However bad or good the deal is, it would have been significantly better if exactly the same deal was signed a year ago...

    "business can handle just about anything"

    Except living for ever with a deal where we caved on everything, as the bastards carping about the 11th hour deal would have had a year ago.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,990

    King Cole, yeah, it's a very interesting book. My only criticism would be that Byzantium (Byzantion, I think he calls it) isn't really covered. He acknowledges he can't do that in a chapter, which is reasonable, but does make me wonder why it was included...

    I found Burgundy (or the Burgundies, perhaps) to be perhaps the best chapter.

    Grandson Two is hoping to start reading History at Uni in September. So far he has two offers at about his likely pass level...... or a bit above, but achievable! I suspect he'll start as a Modern, but you never know with subjects like that where you'll end up.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    edited December 2020

    King Cole, yeah, it's a very interesting book. My only criticism would be that Byzantium (Byzantion, I think he calls it) isn't really covered. He acknowledges he can't do that in a chapter, which is reasonable, but does make me wonder why it was included...

    I found Burgundy (or the Burgundies, perhaps) to be perhaps the best chapter.

    Burgundy was so confusing it made me wonder how any nations developed anywhere. Inclusion of the Soviet Union felt like an odd choice at first, though there was this memorable quote:

    The soviet system was built on extreme force and extreme fraud. Practically everything that Lenin and the Leninists did was accompanied by killing; practically everything they said was based on half-baked theories, a total lack of integrity and huge barefaced lies.

    Iron Kingdom by Christopher Clark on the rise and fall of Prussia was a fascinating read on development of a state, which is now gone. And it did something I am a bit of a sucker for, which is concluding a 900 page book with a sentence mirroring the very first sentence. In the end, there was only Brandenburg.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225
    edited December 2020

    kle4 said:

    Boris has been on camera saying that it is a useful tactic in life to give the slight impression you are deliberately pretending not to know what is going on, as the reality may be that you don't know what is going on but people won't be able to tell the difference.

    He is a bit too cavalier in testing that out for my liking.
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    So our Christmas truce has passed and we're all back to arguing about Brexit.

    What next? Scottish Independence?

    The arguments about Brexit will go on ad infinitum amongst those who are really exercised by it, but the country at large can move on. Most of the general population neither knows nor cares about fishing rights or the Erasmus scheme. I anticipate teething problems at the border in the New Year, but once they're sorted out the issue will fade into the background.

    Scottish independence is a different matter. That pantomime will keep playing on a continuous loop until the nationalists win one of their future referendums and get away. Victory in the second one is a strong possibility for them, but even if they lose again they're so well dug in that the argument will never go away. If indyref 2 goes down then the campaign for indyref 3 starts the following morning.
    No it doesn't, Yes to independence from Canada got 49% in the second Quebec referendum in 1995 and 25 years later there has still not been a third as devomax for Quebec resolved the issue.
    The SNP are going nowhere, and unless they're badly weakened (and, having taken over as the dominant centre-left party, there's no sign of that happening) then they'll be in Government, either continuously or at regular intervals, until the year dot. This is the product of a very large and entrenched fraction of the electorate that has made up its mind that it wants independence, and a fragmented collection of weak, unpopular and useless opposition parties.

    This isn't going to be like Quebec (besides anything else, "devomax" - whatever that turns out to be - isn't on offer, and even that wouldn't stop the loud, continuous complaints of being hard done by.) The only way anyone on either side of the border is going to get any peace is when they go.
    Wait a moment. The Quebec National Assembly has been continuously controlled by nationalists since the demise of the Union Nationale.

    All the parties in Quebec National Assembly (including the Liberal party) are various shades of nationalists. Apart from in the West Montreal suburbs, you just would not get many votes in Quebec if you weren't some shade of nationalist.

    Quebec has far more power than Scotland, and has been allowed to go its own way in Canada with a much more generous hand by the loose central Government (which has often had a Quebecois at its helm).
    I remain to be convinced that the English electorate - or, at any rate, a large enough fraction of it to make a big difference - will tolerate either a Government propped up by Scots Nats MPs, or a Prime Minister representing a Scottish seat, ever again. Certainly if there's any danger of the Conservatives losing their majority come the next General Election then the SNP will be used as a stick with which to beat Keir Starmer. But time will tell.
    I think most people will have absolutely no problem with a PM representing a Scottish constituency, if that ever happens.
    One would hope so. But surely EVEL is the issue.

    Edit: Because the PM is necessarily responsivble for English domestic policy. Unless that is resolved by the "UK" parliament being made a truly federal one, with England taken out of that equation by being given its own pmt or pmts.
    It always comes back to the Big Train Set problem. A federal settlement with an English Parliament is the necessary condition to try to hold the UK together, but the leaders of the main political parties want to play with the whole train set. They don't want to be made to choose between being PM or FM.

    I mean, I think the Scottish situation is so far advanced that the Union is beyond saving anyway, but they don't even want to try.
    That's the trouble. Can you possibly imagine any non-Tory Scottish PM - or potential PM - whom the Tories wouldn't monster with every possible angle? It'd be like Mr Miliband in Mr Salmond's pocket, only ten times worse. And yet the Tories are supposed to be Unionists. With EVEL and then the Miliband/Salmomnd posters, the Tories didn't so much not try as positively to reject the idea of an equal union with all MPs counting together - tear it up and then widdle all over it (and that's quite separate from the known asymmetries of the Blairite devolution settlement, which we all know about).
    I think the Salmond posters coudl quite easily make the point that being in the pocket of nationalists, not merely scots, would be a problem. However I do think you are right that there are far too many people who object to a Scottish PM as an issue in itself. No it hasn't been that long since we had one, but it does feel different to me now, and that is hugely problematic for the Union.

    There was a *lot* of rather poorly-disguised anti-Scottish sentiment intermingled with the opprobrium our last Scottish PM attracted, too. And yes, it was noticed in Scotland.
    My last intense period of 'blogging on the right side of history' before joining this great place was back in 08/09 and I'm afraid I do recall quite a bit of output from the other side along those lines.

    "Gordon Broon. The one eyed Scottish idiot strikes again. Forcing Lloyds to choke on that dreadful Bank of SCOTLAND and laughing about it. Should stick to tossing his caber."

    Much of it stuck vividly in my mind as you can see.
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    IanB2 said:

    As above, the only question here is whether Brexiter MPs are prepared to re-engage in the real political world and embrace this deal as something to champion and take forward (as, to his credit, Farage has realised) - or whether they are going to underline the essential futility of their ideological purity and posture and pose by abstaining or opposing the government deal.

    Wise words from your posts this afternoon.

    My advice would be magnanimity and to go back to sober, sensible good Government.

    Make Conservatives the safe choice and Labour the risky/disruptive one in 2024 again.
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    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    kle4 said:

    King Cole, Reise[sp] were an alternative crusading route that isn't as widely known about but was pretty big at the time. Henry Bolingbroke, the future Henry IV, when crusading in East.

    Mind you, the Fourth Crusade sacked a Christian city, and the Albigensian one was about the Cathar heresy in the south of France (and notable for almost all the protagonists being called Raymond).

    Yes, the Teutonic Knights and their exploits are an often neglected area of history. Was it you who recommended 'Europe's Forgotten Nations' to me?
    IIRC it was during the war between the Catholics and the Cathars that the victorious Bishop instructed his army, when asked whom they should spare in a 'half-and-half' city said 'Kill them all; God will know his own." Or similar.
    Supposedly. Whether he said specifically that or not, he said things not far off it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caedite_eos._Novit_enim_Dominus_qui_sunt_eius.
    "The Yellow Cross; The Story of the Last Cathars" was an interesting read. Interesting to see a certain Simon de Montfort mentioned (albeit an ancestor of the one we know from school history - the 5th Earl of Leicester, not the 6th)
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    kle4 said:

    Boris has been on camera saying that it is a useful tactic in life to give the slight impression you are deliberately pretending not to know what is going on, as the reality may be that you don't know what is going on but people won't be able to tell the difference.

    He is a bit too cavalier in testing that out for my liking.
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    So our Christmas truce has passed and we're all back to arguing about Brexit.

    What next? Scottish Independence?

    The arguments about Brexit will go on ad infinitum amongst those who are really exercised by it, but the country at large can move on. Most of the general population neither knows nor cares about fishing rights or the Erasmus scheme. I anticipate teething problems at the border in the New Year, but once they're sorted out the issue will fade into the background.

    Scottish independence is a different matter. That pantomime will keep playing on a continuous loop until the nationalists win one of their future referendums and get away. Victory in the second one is a strong possibility for them, but even if they lose again they're so well dug in that the argument will never go away. If indyref 2 goes down then the campaign for indyref 3 starts the following morning.
    No it doesn't, Yes to independence from Canada got 49% in the second Quebec referendum in 1995 and 25 years later there has still not been a third as devomax for Quebec resolved the issue.
    The SNP are going nowhere, and unless they're badly weakened (and, having taken over as the dominant centre-left party, there's no sign of that happening) then they'll be in Government, either continuously or at regular intervals, until the year dot. This is the product of a very large and entrenched fraction of the electorate that has made up its mind that it wants independence, and a fragmented collection of weak, unpopular and useless opposition parties.

    This isn't going to be like Quebec (besides anything else, "devomax" - whatever that turns out to be - isn't on offer, and even that wouldn't stop the loud, continuous complaints of being hard done by.) The only way anyone on either side of the border is going to get any peace is when they go.
    Wait a moment. The Quebec National Assembly has been continuously controlled by nationalists since the demise of the Union Nationale.

    All the parties in Quebec National Assembly (including the Liberal party) are various shades of nationalists. Apart from in the West Montreal suburbs, you just would not get many votes in Quebec if you weren't some shade of nationalist.

    Quebec has far more power than Scotland, and has been allowed to go its own way in Canada with a much more generous hand by the loose central Government (which has often had a Quebecois at its helm).
    I remain to be convinced that the English electorate - or, at any rate, a large enough fraction of it to make a big difference - will tolerate either a Government propped up by Scots Nats MPs, or a Prime Minister representing a Scottish seat, ever again. Certainly if there's any danger of the Conservatives losing their majority come the next General Election then the SNP will be used as a stick with which to beat Keir Starmer. But time will tell.
    I think most people will have absolutely no problem with a PM representing a Scottish constituency, if that ever happens.
    One would hope so. But surely EVEL is the issue.

    Edit: Because the PM is necessarily responsivble for English domestic policy. Unless that is resolved by the "UK" parliament being made a truly federal one, with England taken out of that equation by being given its own pmt or pmts.
    It always comes back to the Big Train Set problem. A federal settlement with an English Parliament is the necessary condition to try to hold the UK together, but the leaders of the main political parties want to play with the whole train set. They don't want to be made to choose between being PM or FM.

    I mean, I think the Scottish situation is so far advanced that the Union is beyond saving anyway, but they don't even want to try.
    That's the trouble. Can you possibly imagine any non-Tory Scottish PM - or potential PM - whom the Tories wouldn't monster with every possible angle? It'd be like Mr Miliband in Mr Salmond's pocket, only ten times worse. And yet the Tories are supposed to be Unionists. With EVEL and then the Miliband/Salmomnd posters, the Tories didn't so much not try as positively to reject the idea of an equal union with all MPs counting together - tear it up and then widdle all over it (and that's quite separate from the known asymmetries of the Blairite devolution settlement, which we all know about).
    I think the Salmond posters coudl quite easily make the point that being in the pocket of nationalists, not merely scots, would be a problem. However I do think you are right that there are far too many people who object to a Scottish PM as an issue in itself. No it hasn't been that long since we had one, but it does feel different to me now, and that is hugely problematic for the Union.

    There was a *lot* of rather poorly-disguised anti-Scottish sentiment intermingled with the opprobrium our last Scottish PM attracted, too. And yes, it was noticed in Scotland.
    It has also gotten much worse and is really noticed now as we see by the polls.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    Speaking of books, I have been gifted this holiday season with the Ian Dale edited book on Prime Ministers (there was time for Boris to write a brief forward), and a history of the Popes by John Julius Norwich. Should be fun stuff.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282

    Some food for thought

    - on December 20th, 521,594 people had received their first jab
    - 366,715 of those were over 80
    - So 70%
    - the number vaccinated now stands at over 800k - so assuming the proportion holds, 560k over 80s
    - There are 3.2 million over 80s in the UK
    - They made up 54% of the death toll of COVID
    - for 17.5% of the over 80s have received their first shot
    - Estimates for the protection from the first shot range from 50-70%

    So if the efficacy is 50% I make it that would mean a 4.7% drop in the fatality rate. Already.

    6.6% if it is 70% effective on the first shot.

    So slow. Like Blair says, they need to get a move on.
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    Oh well, what’s five and a half years of full access in the scheme of things? The fisher folk are known for their equanimity in such matters.

    I'm old enough to remember when Michael Gove and Ruth Davidson said we had to have full control from March 2019.

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/972750549471973376
    Disappointed and surprised not to see an extended tweet analysis from Ruth on this great deal. Hope she’s ok.
    Even her brass neck cannot cover that one, she will be in the crypt with Broon plotting enhanced devolution as close to home rule as one can get without having it.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    IanB2 said:

    As above, the only question here is whether Brexiter MPs are prepared to re-engage in the real political world and embrace this deal as something to champion and take forward (as, to his credit, Farage has realised) - or whether they are going to underline the essential futility of their ideological purity and posture and pose by abstaining or opposing the government deal.

    Wise words from your posts this afternoon.

    My advice would be magnanimity and to go back to sober, sensible good Government.

    Make Conservatives the safe choice and Labour the risky/disruptive one in 2024 again.
    I will happily work towards that.
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    King Cole, yep that is indeed the occasion of that quote. Can't recall if he was a bishop, I have a feeling he was an underling of the Pope.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,759
    edited December 2020

    Oh well, what’s five and a half years of full access in the scheme of things? The fisher folk are known for their equanimity in such matters.

    I'm old enough to remember when Michael Gove and Ruth Davidson said we had to have full control from March 2019.

    https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/972750549471973376
    Disappointed and surprised not to see an extended tweet analysis from Ruth on this great deal. Hope she’s ok.
    I had a look. She was tweeting on the 24th, at 1335, re suitable seasonal wear for canids, and has presumably been too busy since then to worry about other matters.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225
    kle4 said:

    Speaking of books, I have been gifted this holiday season with the Ian Dale edited book on Prime Ministers (there was time for Boris to write a brief forward), and a history of the Popes by John Julius Norwich. Should be fun stuff.

    Sounds great. But I've got the new paperback Murakami and I'm not trading you.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    IanB2 said:

    As above, the only question here is whether Brexiter MPs are prepared to re-engage in the real political world and embrace this deal as something to champion and take forward (as, to his credit, Farage has realised) - or whether they are going to underline the essential futility of their ideological purity and posture and pose by abstaining or opposing the government deal.

    Wise words from your posts this afternoon.

    My advice would be magnanimity and to go back to sober, sensible good Government.

    Make Conservatives the safe choice and Labour the risky/disruptive one in 2024 again.
    Let Labour point the way forward once again.
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    She wants us to congratulate Johnson for making peace with the EU, when he was the one who started the war......

    I think she is optimistic if she thinks "it's all over..."
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    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    Speaking of books, I have been gifted this holiday season with the Ian Dale edited book on Prime Ministers (there was time for Boris to write a brief forward), and a history of the Popes by John Julius Norwich. Should be fun stuff.

    Sounds great. But I've got the new paperback Murakami and I'm not trading you.
    Entirely unconnected to the recent PB discussion, I have Dresden The Fire And The Darkness to pick through. Nothing says Christmas like fire storms.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    A review of the agreement every 5 years is baked in, just as long as we have between GEs, so if there are big issues with it on either side then they can be addressed in 2025.

    As for the trench warfare idea - no. This won't be the end of UK-EU disputes, discussions or initiatives (those will never end as we are very close neighbours will different ways of doing things) but, aside from the irreconcilables on both sides, the war is over.

    Yes, the people taking about this as the beginning of a new war are kidding themselves. This is the beginning of a new chapter, one that is hopefully going to be much more peaceful era of relations for both parties.

    With the political heat taken out of the relationship there will now be a lot of opportunities to build on the deal outside of the spotlight now that no one cares.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,156
    MaxPB said:

    A review of the agreement every 5 years is baked in, just as long as we have between GEs, so if there are big issues with it on either side then they can be addressed in 2025.

    As for the trench warfare idea - no. This won't be the end of UK-EU disputes, discussions or initiatives (those will never end as we are very close neighbours will different ways of doing things) but, aside from the irreconcilables on both sides, the war is over.

    Yes, the people taking about this as the beginning of a new war are kidding themselves. This is the beginning of a new chapter, one that is hopefully going to be much more peaceful era of relations for both parties.

    With the political heat taken out of the relationship there will now be a lot of opportunities to build on the deal outside of the spotlight now that no one cares.
    Francis Fukuyama - is that you?

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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,156
    End of history.
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    Some revealing quotes:

    "But who cares about them." for those who continuously complain about remainers not caring about everyone else, and

    "Had we left without a deal, and the country been plunged into an even deeper crisis by the combination of that and the pandemic, I honestly don’t think I would have been able to live with myself. And I think if they’re honest with themselves, so would many other of my fellow Brexiteers." for those who think we were ever serious about no deal or that it would have been fine.
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