Categories
Options
Even after 38 court flops and two recounts punters are still ready to bet on Trump and Betfair remai
Even after 38 court flops and two recounts punters are still ready to bet on Trump and Betfair remains open – politicalbetting.com
Chart Betdata.io
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
The government's strategy is fairly easy to understand. It is literally whack a mole. Oh how we laughed when that was used as an example but that is it.
They want to batter down the incidence and they will do this, clumsily as it turns out, by tiers, lockdowns, what-all else. When it comes down they will re-open to allow what economic activity that can exist to exist. And then they batter down again when naturally incidence rises.
So why that? Well first I think they were/are shit-scared of the virus and to start with they weren't sure what or how it would play out. What if no vaccine? Endless rises and falls. Secondly, it is the line, impossible to draw, between allowing what economic activity can take place, and avoiding the scenes we all saw in Italy six months ago when hospitals were overflowing.
However, and this is where @contrarian is a vital voice in all of this, the government has also monumentally fucked up. In communication, in redress, in targeting, and as @contrarian says, in the NHS. I have spoken with consultants who are seething at the lack of work being done in the "normal" NHS.
Where is the new capacity? Nightingale? Anything else? What about a signing on bonus of £XXXXX to nurses and doctors and related disciplines.
Plus the control. Brady is right. This is an unprecedented restriction on freedom and the country, whether because of furlough, or holding on to nurse, has acquiesced in a quite extraordinary way.
And, not least on PB.
https://twitter.com/ShoaibMKhan/status/1333813022020825088
The oil company for which I worked had a universal, internal opinion on the matter - "That's why we don't do things like that".
Biden 1.06
Democrats 1.06
Biden PV 1.03
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.06
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.06
Trump ECV 210-239 1.1
Biden ECV 300-329 1.09
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.07
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.08
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.01
AZ Dem 1.05
GA Dem 1.06
MI Dem 1.05
NV Dem 1.05
PA Dem 1.05
WI Dem 1.05
Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.11
Trump exit date 2021 1.09
That seems to be exactly what Betfair have done in 2020 too. Followed the precedence laid down twenty years ago.
Given the precedence of twenty years ago I don't see why it should be expected Betfair would do anything differently now?
I'll get my coat. It's the one with Dr Mudd's card in the pocket...
https://twitter.com/RichardNabavi/status/1333819017170202625
https://twitter.com/Robert___Harris/status/1333812372998385666?s=20
Not nice to see but have to respect it.
22 off the 17th over.
This is free money.
"Neville, Neville, don't worry about the Germans. The future is ELECTRIC. Instead of wasting it on planes and tanks, just give me a few billion in subsidies for my factory instead and the UK can have a world beating industry assembling my cars."
I don't agree it's comparable with 2000 though. The Supreme Court decision then was 5-4 (on one of the points, 7-2 on the other) on a serious point of law (& the state courts had ruled for Gore), with a fairly good chance Gore would've won had it gone the other way. This time, Trump needs to win multiple cases (flipping 37 EVs or nullifying 74) on grounds which are laughably weak - all serious law firms have walked away, the cases bear no relation to the bold "fraud" claims from Trump on Twitter, and they've been annihilated time and again by Republican appointed judges. It's chalk and cheese.
The first five named are Stuart Broad, Hollie Doyle, Lewis Hamilton, Jordan Henderson & Ronnie O'Sullivan
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/sports-personality/55043358
*There likely is something in UKIP <- deprivation/age profile -> detected covid cases, but it's not really obvious here
It is not Betfair's job to adjudicate legal cases before the courts do, that is the courts job. If the precedence is that if the court reverses the result (as it could have done in 2000) then that is relevant to the market then cases being before the courts (as they are) are grounds for waiting and seeing. As happened in 2000.
It is vexatious and absurd litigtation. We all know that. But Betfair set the precedence twenty years ago and are following it now. The Courts will rule against Trump and then this is over, in the mean time there's free money available if you have the liquidity.
Some will immediately ask ‘who was to blame?’, so they can be fired and the incident put in the past - while others will analyse every minor setback as if it were a plane crash, because they want to learn from the past and develop into the future.
You can guess which company has the happy staff and the higher productivity.
https://xkcd.com/2392/
'However can I just warn you and your successors about the dangers of paedo divers?'
It would have been escalated to the CEO and the corporate lawyers, who are judging that the risk of calling it early is a lot higher than letting it run to the point where it’s clear beyond any doubt.
Kent and the East Midlands have moved up the rankings recently.
Would have been different a month before.
My losers are settled, my winners (hopefully) not yet.
(If I had to speculate, I'd wonder about the link between Farageism and lockdown-scepticism making the most recent lockdown less effective in certain places, but that would be massive speculation. But how else does one explain Havering?)
In a civilised country it won't happen.
If America's courts go through with it though then we're through the looking glass and the market (and the USA and the world) is as f###ed as a stepmom on Pornhub as TSE is fond of saying.
The precedence is twenty years old. It is for the courts to settle this now.
But, to be clear, the Supreme Court did not "reverse the result" in 2000 and that is way outside their powers. What they did is uphold the Florida Secretary of State's certification of the votes and overturn the state court's decision to order a further manual recount in light of the state's existing laws on certification. Gore was not ahead and although he might have gone ahead had the recount proceeded, he may not. Even if Trump won in the Supreme Court (which is vanishingly unlikely) it almost certainly wouldn't change the result as the most he can dream of is manual recounts in states which aren't actually that close - the Wisconsin recounts in large counties actually added to Biden's majority, but the movement (74 votes) was utterly trivial and indicative of what we'd see in all these states which were won by five or six figure majorities.
Signatures naturally vary. A strict scrutiny match on signatures could see hundreds of thousands or millions of perfectly legitimate votes be thrown out as "illegal" votes in a recount. At which point voila Trump is the winner.
It is sick, it should lose, but there is a path to victory for Trump there if the courts abuse their position and let him get away with it.
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1333820875800502274
A longshot is more like that general who sneered the enemy couldn't hit a barn door ...
If he'd survived the financial crunch that was coming, Hitler might then have lasted a long, long time.
Very impressive batting there by the South Africans.
Aviation is like F1 - that people walk away from horrific accidents is entirely by design, and decades of continuous improvement.
It is a bit like saying Trump could have won a second term if he hadn't insulted and offended so many people.
Many of the people that die owe their deaths to design.
They didn't, so he took the agreement. And half of Czechoslovakia.
When they reacted to him taking the other half, he was furious. Because he felt they had lied in a fashion. Pretending to be weak....
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/01/trump-campaign-files-election-lawsuit-in-wisconsin-after-state-declares-biden-won-.html
In theory, the Supreme Court could argue the US Constitution requires them to declare the reanimated corpse of George Washington President. But it's all utterly in the realms of fantasy.
To be a "path to victory" it needs some semblence of plausibility (even if it needs a lot of fairly unlikely things to come together). This is "a dragon might land on the White House lawn carrying a unicorn on its back" territory.
Hitler's was to avenge 1918. He couldn't do that without War with the neighbours at some point.
The problem was that the behaviour of the Russian, UK & French governments gave him enough to convince himself that he could take just one more piece of Europe.
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-voters-less-likely-to-change-their-underpants-every-day/
It's UKIP / not UKIP not leave / Remain.
And are you sure that 81% vs 89% is causation
Dare say that more medics than other professions don't take their undies off at night - but that would be because they are working!
France is aiming to launch a widespread Covid-19 vaccination campaign between April and June next year, its President Emmanuel Macron said
All the accounts of those close to him was that he was shocked and upset that he was in a *general* war.