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Trump’s reluctance to concede could hinder his party in the Georgia Runoffs – politicalbetting.com

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited November 2020
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Insomnia is a bit of a bore.... Been tired for days and still can’t bloody sleep.

    Have you tried non-pharmacological techniques? Of course the concerns you have about your family are not helping. One trick I was taught some years ago was trying to remember 5 town's names for each letter of the alphabet.Even on a bad night I rarely get much past Grantham and Gloucester!
    I have been doing a lot of hard physical work in the last few days - which normally helps. But worries keep intruding and brain is buzzing. Listened to the audiobook of Persuasion in the end. When I was working on intensive investigations I used to survive on v little sleep and lots of adrenalin for days/weeks on end, sometimes months. Then when all over, fall down into a proper sleep. Thought those days were over. Different type of stress these days, I guess.

    Off to do some more heavy duty lifting and carrying and with luck, as well as hands like a navvy’s, I’ll be so physically tired that I’ll get some sleep eventually.
    Glass of wine and some quiet music about 11pm does the trick for me
    Or drink as much of a bottle of wine as you fancy on evenings one and two; skip the drink on evening three and you are guaranteed to sleep soundly.
    I play Augusta in my head when I'm struggling to drop off. Never get past the par 5 8th.
    How many balls have you lost by then?
    Ha. No this is fantasy life. I'm usually 4 under and leading the tournament.
    I had a friend whose dream it was to go and play some world class courses. He organized a trip out to Myrtle Beach way, where they are loads of great courses, with the highlight being to play The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island.

    He came back saying it was one of the most miserable days of his life. It just so tough, he lost so many balls, he was nearly ready to give up golf completely.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    justin124 said:

    I've decided I like Matt Hancock. He's a very funny man.

    https://twitter.com/beardedgenius/status/1328262380711784448?s=21

    A ridiculous question from Piers Morgan there. There is nothing undemocratic about politicians refusing to appear on TV or radio programmes at all. Breakfast television did not exist until the early 1980s - Wilson and Heath never had to do it. The media adopts the attitude of 'If we decide to put on a programme , you must agree to appear'. I disagree totally. Ditto re- GE Debates etc.
    Not one to defend Piers Morgan, but when when politicians withhold access to journalists, it has a chilling effect on free speech.
    Politicians are not obliged to appear on programmes simply because the broadcasters demand that they should. They are perfectly entitled to restrict their appearances to much the same level of their predecessors back in the 1950s and 1960s. How often did leading political figures appear on the Today programme to be interviewed by Jack De Manio?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    https://twitter.com/GrowlerTheBear/status/1328311564441710599?s=20

    The Pfizer logistics aren't going to be cheap either.

    The UK aren't even be paying £3, due to funding the research we are getting mates rates. Does feel a bit like AZ / Oxford might be under pricing theirs if other people sell at 10x.
    US vs U.K. pricing

    But the US sticker price is high while all the HMO gets something around a 40-45% discount so it’s just Medicare and the uninsured who get stiffed
  • In next week's instalment, there will be proof that Biden sold his soul to Satan and the hordes of Beelzebub entered the ballot boxes and moved the ink from "Trump" to "Biden"..... ;)

    Trumpists are even worse losers than Remainers....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The vaccine taskforce is supposedly in talks about licencing it for manufacturing here which would be a different sort of deal than just purchasing.
    Even better. Presumably every available manufacturing facility in the country will be pushed onto Covid vaccines ASAP, as well as probably a few more facilities constructed.?
    cGMP manufacturing is a bit more complicated that that!

    That’s why the U.K. government bought the Braintree site earlier this year.
  • Great news about the Modena vaccine!

    Balsamic vinegar is a vaccine??? I have some in the cupboard :D:D
    Blend it 1 part Balsamic to 2 parts Cif for maximum efficacy.
    I wonder if it should be injected? Perhaps The Donald would know?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    What happens if Oxford come along in 2-3 weeks and say ours is only 60-70% effective?

    Be very tricky decision for the government.

    Isn't the storage distribution supposed to be a lot easier for the Oxford vaccine?
    Yes, just need a fridge..But can you imagine the reaction if the government says ok oldies get Pfizer, the rest of you plebs get a 60% effective one.
    Would be fair enough. Covid-19 is virtually harmless to the fit and healthy under 50s.
  • kinabalu said:

    I play Augusta in my head when I'm struggling to drop off. Never get past the par 5 8th.

    Golf! I doubt I would get past the first tee...
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    kinabalu said:

    justin124 said:

    I've decided I like Matt Hancock. He's a very funny man.

    https://twitter.com/beardedgenius/status/1328262380711784448?s=21

    A ridiculous question from Piers Morgan there. There is nothing undemocratic about politicians refusing to appear on TV or radio programmes at all. Breakfast television did not exist until the early 1980s - Wilson and Heath never had to do it. The media adopts the attitude of 'If we decide to put on a programme , you must agree to appear'. I disagree totally. Ditto re- GE Debates etc.
    But Johnson skipping Neil when Corbyn had done it was a bit off, wasn't it?
    kinabalu said:

    justin124 said:

    I've decided I like Matt Hancock. He's a very funny man.

    https://twitter.com/beardedgenius/status/1328262380711784448?s=21

    A ridiculous question from Piers Morgan there. There is nothing undemocratic about politicians refusing to appear on TV or radio programmes at all. Breakfast television did not exist until the early 1980s - Wilson and Heath never had to do it. The media adopts the attitude of 'If we decide to put on a programme , you must agree to appear'. I disagree totally. Ditto re- GE Debates etc.
    But Johnson skipping Neil when Corbyn had done it was a bit off, wasn't it?
    To a degree - but it could be argued that Corbyn should not have agreed to appear himself until a firm schedule of appearances by all leaders had been drawn up.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,224
    edited November 2020

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Insomnia is a bit of a bore.... Been tired for days and still can’t bloody sleep.

    Have you tried non-pharmacological techniques? Of course the concerns you have about your family are not helping. One trick I was taught some years ago was trying to remember 5 town's names for each letter of the alphabet.Even on a bad night I rarely get much past Grantham and Gloucester!
    I have been doing a lot of hard physical work in the last few days - which normally helps. But worries keep intruding and brain is buzzing. Listened to the audiobook of Persuasion in the end. When I was working on intensive investigations I used to survive on v little sleep and lots of adrenalin for days/weeks on end, sometimes months. Then when all over, fall down into a proper sleep. Thought those days were over. Different type of stress these days, I guess.

    Off to do some more heavy duty lifting and carrying and with luck, as well as hands like a navvy’s, I’ll be so physically tired that I’ll get some sleep eventually.
    Glass of wine and some quiet music about 11pm does the trick for me
    Or drink as much of a bottle of wine as you fancy on evenings one and two; skip the drink on evening three and you are guaranteed to sleep soundly.
    I play Augusta in my head when I'm struggling to drop off. Never get past the par 5 8th.
    How many balls have you lost by then?
    Ha. No this is fantasy life. I'm usually 4 under and leading the tournament.
    I had a friend whose dream it was to go and play some world class courses. He organized a trip out to Myrtle Beach way, where they are loads of great courses, with the highlight being to play The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island.

    He came back saying it was one of the most miserable days of his life. It just so tough, he lost so many balls, he was nearly ready to give up golf completely.
    Yes, losing tons of balls is a downer. And a championship course does find you out unless you're a near scratch player. Still, I played the Belfry recently and scored badly yet managed to enjoy it.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877

    This morning I spotted another willy-waving topic on PB. So we now have:

    "I don't watch TV"
    "I don't use cash"
    "I don't have a land line"

    I suspect a big cluster in the centre of the Venn Diagram.

    I don't watch tv depends probably for a lot how you define I don't watch tv. There are probably lots that don't watch broadcast tv but I suspect they still watch streamed shows or dvds.

    The "I don't use cash" people are the most worrying. Given a couple of million people in the country cannot get a bank account and therefore no card. Also for the issue of flipping to all electronic transactions means we lose a freedom to do things outside government views. To my mind all electronic transaction advocates are no different to those that advocate that there should be a black box to track us in every car.
  • It is more likely than not that further Covid-19 restrictions will be recommended before Christmas, NI's chief scientific adviser has warned.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-54958483
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,224

    kinabalu said:

    I play Augusta in my head when I'm struggling to drop off. Never get past the par 5 8th.

    Golf! I doubt I would get past the first tee...
    Well there you go - bore yourself off to the land of nod.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:

    Charles said:

    Roger said:

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    Sandpit said:

    I think this is a very good point by Mike and a great tip with SMarkets.

    I'm on Ossoff at 2/1 with Betfair Sportsbook.

    Speaking of Betfair, they are still not settling up on Biden 300-329 ECVs. I think this is really poor and I have complained. What with this and the kind of shenanigans that Mike highlights I am not impressed with them right now.

    Saying the same thing every morning won’t make Betfair settle early. Remember they’re a broker not a bookmaker, it’s not their money they’ll be paying out. It’ll be settled when the results are final.

    When they do finally pay out, put everything of Lewis Hamilton for the Sports Personality award, he’s 1.85 on Betfair at the moment, but who else has any significant sporting achievements this year?
    All this talk of wokery....can anyone in good conscience be happy making money out of an aggressive tax avoider who earns $54 million a year?
    Pretty sure he pays more UK tax than you (and probably any of us) do, Roger.
    Living in Monaco?

    “A sunny place for shady people” remains the best description of Monaco I have come across
    Also applied to the Soggy Dollar bar on Jost van Dyke, as I remember the t-shirt explaining.
    You were focused on the tee-shirts?
    Frankly the whole time was a blur. Highlight = breaking my oar and trying to find the boat after the NYE party at Foxy's.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    felix said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Right on cue and Scott slimes out another one.
    Seems like a legitimate question to me. Why did the UK decide back then not to preorder any Moderna doses?
    This isn't a rhetorical question, I assume there's a good reason?
    I believe they were pursuing best in class (they estimated) from each technological approach

    So:

    - PFE/BioNTech for mRNA
    - AZN for viral vector
    - I believe they have deals with JNJ/Janssen and GSK/SAN as well
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,459
    MaxPB said:

    Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.

    Or its even more effective... and thus taking longer to reach the necessary number!
    I don't think it will be too long now.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,459
    MaxPB said:

    If I was in the vaccine task force I'd be buying up as much H1 2021 Moderna vaccine as possible to compliment the Pfizer deliveries we already have. There's nothing to gain by waiting for AZ to report as we can sell the unused capacity of that on to other nations or hold them in reserve in case a booster is needed with a different vector.

    I believe we are in negotiations at the moment.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    MaxPB said:

    Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.

    Or its even more effective... and thus taking longer to reach the necessary number!
    I don't think it will be too long now.
    You mentioned your work in a lab earlier - are you in the field?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,224
    justin124 said:

    kinabalu said:

    justin124 said:

    I've decided I like Matt Hancock. He's a very funny man.

    https://twitter.com/beardedgenius/status/1328262380711784448?s=21

    A ridiculous question from Piers Morgan there. There is nothing undemocratic about politicians refusing to appear on TV or radio programmes at all. Breakfast television did not exist until the early 1980s - Wilson and Heath never had to do it. The media adopts the attitude of 'If we decide to put on a programme , you must agree to appear'. I disagree totally. Ditto re- GE Debates etc.
    But Johnson skipping Neil when Corbyn had done it was a bit off, wasn't it?
    kinabalu said:

    justin124 said:

    I've decided I like Matt Hancock. He's a very funny man.

    https://twitter.com/beardedgenius/status/1328262380711784448?s=21

    A ridiculous question from Piers Morgan there. There is nothing undemocratic about politicians refusing to appear on TV or radio programmes at all. Breakfast television did not exist until the early 1980s - Wilson and Heath never had to do it. The media adopts the attitude of 'If we decide to put on a programme , you must agree to appear'. I disagree totally. Ditto re- GE Debates etc.
    But Johnson skipping Neil when Corbyn had done it was a bit off, wasn't it?
    To a degree - but it could be argued that Corbyn should not have agreed to appear himself until a firm schedule of appearances by all leaders had been drawn up.
    True. And he compounded the error by choosing that one to be at his most ineffectual and unappealing.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    This morning I spotted another willy-waving topic on PB. So we now have:

    "I don't watch TV"
    "I don't use cash"
    "I don't have a land line"

    I suspect a big cluster in the centre of the Venn Diagram.

    Cash and landlines are utterly pointless, so why bother with either?

    I do have cable TV however and wouldn't bin it – cable is so much better than faffing around with the internet.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    RH1992 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The vaccine taskforce is supposedly in talks about licencing it for manufacturing here which would be a different sort of deal than just purchasing.
    Yep, I think it's a bit blunt of a Guardian journalist to snidely put "this won't benefit you lot". That's a big problem I have with the Guardian at the minute, you can have the happiest news in the world but if it's a ray of hope for Britain the journalists there seem to thrive on dishing out any nugget of misery. It flies in the face of their "objective independent reporting" they seem to champion.
    SOP for Guardian journalists. If we end up with too many vaccines they’ll be moaning about that too.

    We see the same sort of thing over Brexit, where a certain group of journalists appear to be gleefully looking forward to disruption, if it means they can sneer at the government and Brexit voters.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.

    Or its even more effective... and thus taking longer to reach the necessary number!
    I don't think it will be too long now.
    Nah it's because they have a smaller control group so less chance of events, especially if it is 90%+ effective like the other two. That to me seems like an error with a standard sample size, if they wanted a one third control group then they should have doubled the size of the trial so that in raw numbers terms there are enough unvaccinated people in the sample to catch it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited November 2020
    If things go ok with the vaccine roll outs, late summer 2021 is going to be absolutely mental. August is going to be wall to wall parties and no chance people get much work done, legendary stuff....in France, I believe they call that a normal August.
  • This morning I spotted another willy-waving topic on PB. So we now have:

    "I don't watch TV"
    "I don't use cash"
    "I don't have a land line"

    I suspect a big cluster in the centre of the Venn Diagram.

    I only watch cookery shows, and only then when it's about pineapple pizzas
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tlg86 said:

    Charles said:

    What happens if Oxford come along in 2-3 weeks and say ours is only 60-70% effective?

    Be very tricky decision for the government.

    Not a tricky decision at all.

    You go with whatever you have for now (60% better than nowt) but focus on PFE not AZN for future orders
    If Oxford say 60-70% effective, it will make me doubt the honesty of the others.
    Remember the others are interim analyses. They should be in line if the trials are powered right but you can get variance
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Did we pay BoZo's cronies all that money to buy the wrong vaccine?

    What a stupid statement. Moderna have zero track record on bringing vaccines to market. The UK has got large orders for a wide range of vacccines in development, with 100s of different organisations working on a vaccine, impossible to place orders for every single one.
    Actually, I think the UK has done a pretty good job of ordering a variety of vaccines operating on different principles.

    And even if the Oxford vaccine doesn't achieve the 90%+ efficacy rate of Pfizer and Moderna (though the Russian results should give us hope that it may, because that vaccine works on the same principle) - as far as I know, there's nothing to be lost by using it in the short term, provided it has been shown to be safe.
    Yes, I think that's right but our mRNA portfolio is lacking and we should have backed both UK horses. Not matching up Imperial with a big partner to run a rapid PIII trial looks to be an error as we'd have a domestic mRNA vaccine in development at this moment.
    The big guys know where imperial is.

    They will have all thought about it before they placed their bets
    No doubt but not giving them the same backing as Oxford got with guaranteed purchases seems like an error.
    Have you seen the data? I haven’t but I’m willing to get there is a reason why no one has run with it
  • I told you all that waiting for the Oxford University vaccine would be a disaster.

    We should have gone with Pfizer and Moderna.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,459
    Reflects arguments we've had on here. It looked like a plateau for a couple of weeks, now has gone up a bit more. Its not accelerating away, but we are still seeing a lot of new cases everyday.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.

    Or its even more effective... and thus taking longer to reach the necessary number!
    I don't think it will be too long now.
    Nah it's because they have a smaller control group so less chance of events, especially if it is 90%+ effective like the other two. That to me seems like an error with a standard sample size, if they wanted a one third control group then they should have doubled the size of the trial so that in raw numbers terms there are enough unvaccinated people in the sample to catch it.
    They would have designed it on the assumption it was 60-70% effective.
  • Alistair said:

    @TheScreamingEagles

    ALASKA UPDATE ON AV VOTE

    The vote to adopting AV has tightened Bigly over the last few days.

    Currently Yes-50.48% No-49.52%

    There are 10,711 Questioned ballots which would be enough to overturn the result.

    Alaskans literally live in the dark (ages).

    If they reject AV then they should be sold back to Russia.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I told you all that waiting for the Oxford University vaccine would be a disaster.

    We should have gone with Pfizer and Moderna.

    We did. As well.
  • This morning I spotted another willy-waving topic on PB. So we now have:

    "I don't watch TV"
    "I don't use cash"
    "I don't have a land line"

    I suspect a big cluster in the centre of the Venn Diagram.

    I haven't owned a TV since the digital switchover. I always thought it was a rather niche, eccentric position so never mentioned it. But now I know it's a sign of virility, seriousness and intellectual independence I won't hesitate to bring it up at every opportunity.
  • Alistair said:
    'Kin hell, I am shocked, SHOCKED, that Contrarian has managed to link to a dubious website run by a vile homophobe, that has a history of publishing bullshit.

    SHOCKED!
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    I play Augusta in my head when I'm struggling to drop off. Never get past the par 5 8th.

    Golf! I doubt I would get past the first tee...
    Well there you go - bore yourself off to the land of nod.
    No need. I sleep soundly.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.

    Or its even more effective... and thus taking longer to reach the necessary number!
    I don't think it will be too long now.
    Nah it's because they have a smaller control group so less chance of events, especially if it is 90%+ effective like the other two. That to me seems like an error with a standard sample size, if they wanted a one third control group then they should have doubled the size of the trial so that in raw numbers terms there are enough unvaccinated people in the sample to catch it.
    Wasn't the Moderna vaccine teated on a fairly small group?

    I have to say that in 60 years in or close to pharmacy I've seen a lot of new drugs and medicines come and go. Generally speaking the old adage 'more haste, less speed' holds true. Infrequent side-effects, by definition, appear in large scale use.
    As someone with several nearest and dearest, including obviously myself, in risk groups I sincerely hope several of these vaccines work but I wouldn't 'bet the farm' on the first one, or even the first of a different type. Or the seconds, either.
  • The US market is its first target. Moderna’s vaccine has been developed with the help of the Federally-funded National Institutes of Health and the US Department of Health and Human Services. It has received $2.48bn from the US government. This vaccine was the brightest hope of President Trump’s Operation Warp Speed programme. By the end of the year, the company aims to have 20 million doses available for use in the United States.

    Because of the price and because of the links to the US government, the rest of the world will have to wait. And the low-income countries may have to look elsewhere. The UN Covax programme will subsidise roll-outs of coronavirus vaccines to poorer countries, but at the price Moderna wants to charge, that may prove too costly.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/latest-moderna-vaccine-success-is-good-news-but-high-price-may-restrict-access

    If Trump had won, I have a feeling nobody would be getting any outside of the US for a long time.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,459
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.

    Or its even more effective... and thus taking longer to reach the necessary number!
    I don't think it will be too long now.
    You mentioned your work in a lab earlier - are you in the field?
    Only tangential - medicinal chemistry.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    edited November 2020
    If the Moderna news had hit a month earlier we could have been looking at a Trump landslide.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.

    Or its even more effective... and thus taking longer to reach the necessary number!
    I don't think it will be too long now.
    You mentioned your work in a lab earlier - are you in the field?
    Only tangential - medicinal chemistry.
    tyvm
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    edited November 2020
    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.

    Or its even more effective... and thus taking longer to reach the necessary number!
    I don't think it will be too long now.
    Nah it's because they have a smaller control group so less chance of events, especially if it is 90%+ effective like the other two. That to me seems like an error with a standard sample size, if they wanted a one third control group then they should have doubled the size of the trial so that in raw numbers terms there are enough unvaccinated people in the sample to catch it.
    They would have designed it on the assumption it was 60-70% effective.
    But going with a standard trial size when there is a huge amount of pressure on getting results quickly seems like an error, the small control group size also seems like an error. Pfizer chased the virus to all the right parts of the world and ran a much larger PIII trial and completed it in much less time than AZ who started earlier and have yet to report. Hopefully it's not long to wait now, but AZ have effectively given away the two month headstart they had over Pfizer with their missteps. However, given the manufacturing issues it may not matter that much anyway.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934
    .

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.

    Or its even more effective... and thus taking longer to reach the necessary number!
    I don't think it will be too long now.
    Nah it's because they have a smaller control group so less chance of events, especially if it is 90%+ effective like the other two. That to me seems like an error with a standard sample size, if they wanted a one third control group then they should have doubled the size of the trial so that in raw numbers terms there are enough unvaccinated people in the sample to catch it.
    Wasn't the Moderna vaccine teated on a fairly small group?

    I have to say that in 60 years in or close to pharmacy I've seen a lot of new drugs and medicines come and go. Generally speaking the old adage 'more haste, less speed' holds true. Infrequent side-effects, by definition, appear in large scale use.
    As someone with several nearest and dearest, including obviously myself, in risk groups I sincerely hope several of these vaccines work but I wouldn't 'bet the farm' on the first one, or even the first of a different type. Or the seconds, either.
    30,000 participants.

    https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04470427
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited November 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    If the Moderna news had hit a month earlier we could have been looking at a Trump landslide.

    I don't know about that...it more than likely will have flipped just enough votes in the key states though for him to win.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.

    Or its even more effective... and thus taking longer to reach the necessary number!
    I don't think it will be too long now.
    Nah it's because they have a smaller control group so less chance of events, especially if it is 90%+ effective like the other two. That to me seems like an error with a standard sample size, if they wanted a one third control group then they should have doubled the size of the trial so that in raw numbers terms there are enough unvaccinated people in the sample to catch it.
    Wasn't the Moderna vaccine teated on a fairly small group?

    I have to say that in 60 years in or close to pharmacy I've seen a lot of new drugs and medicines come and go. Generally speaking the old adage 'more haste, less speed' holds true. Infrequent side-effects, by definition, appear in large scale use.
    As someone with several nearest and dearest, including obviously myself, in risk groups I sincerely hope several of these vaccines work but I wouldn't 'bet the farm' on the first one, or even the first of a different type. Or the seconds, either.
    30k trial size, 50% control. It's large enough.
  • Later peeps!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:
    'Kin hell, I am shocked, SHOCKED, that Contrarian has managed to link to a dubious website run by a vile homophobe, that has a history of publishing bullshit.

    SHOCKED!
    Guess how far I had to scroll down before getting to an article involving George Soros?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited November 2020
    justin124 said:

    I've decided I like Matt Hancock. He's a very funny man.

    https://twitter.com/beardedgenius/status/1328262380711784448?s=21

    A ridiculous question from Piers Morgan there. There is nothing undemocratic about politicians refusing to appear on TV or radio programmes at all. Breakfast television did not exist until the early 1980s - Wilson and Heath never had to do it. The media adopts the attitude of 'If we decide to put on a programme , you must agree to appear'. I disagree totally. Ditto re- GE Debates etc.
    I agree with you. And Piers Morgan is so bad that politicians have every reason to refuse to indulge him.

    I would have loved it if after Morgan refused to play ball Hancock had said something along the lines of "well we've had plenty of ways of getting our message across to people without appearing on GMB..... your ratings aren't that great you know .... we've been reluctant to do so because we decided that you're such a s**t interviewer, talking over interrupting, trying to turn everything into a hatchet job come what may, that we would never be allowed to inform your viewers in a meaningful way..... we think in all honestly Piers that you're pretty discredited and a laughing stock even amongst journalists ..... not many of whom claim that Donald Trump is a close friend of theirs as you did a fortnight back ...... never mind all that stuff about phone hacking that you still implausibly deny, can we talk about that for a bit? - no, I thought not, never mind, I'm sure your viewers and non-viewers have made up their mind on that..... so anyway we decided to draw the line at GMB in particular a while ago ...... nonetheless we've decided to give you a second chance .... whether you take it is up to you."
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:
    'Kin hell, I am shocked, SHOCKED, that Contrarian has managed to link to a dubious website run by a vile homophobe, that has a history of publishing bullshit.

    SHOCKED!
    Guess how far I had to scroll down before getting to an article involving George Soros?
    Not very far.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205

    Pulpstar said:

    If the Moderna news had hit a month earlier we could have been looking at a Trump landslide.

    I don't know about that...it might well have flipped just enough votes in the key states though
    True enough - WI, GA, PA, AZ, MI, NV are the potential Trump flippers. Biden 50% / Trump 48.2 / Trump 311 ECVs & Biden 227
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463
    RobD said:

    .

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.

    Or its even more effective... and thus taking longer to reach the necessary number!
    I don't think it will be too long now.
    Nah it's because they have a smaller control group so less chance of events, especially if it is 90%+ effective like the other two. That to me seems like an error with a standard sample size, if they wanted a one third control group then they should have doubled the size of the trial so that in raw numbers terms there are enough unvaccinated people in the sample to catch it.
    Wasn't the Moderna vaccine teated on a fairly small group?

    I have to say that in 60 years in or close to pharmacy I've seen a lot of new drugs and medicines come and go. Generally speaking the old adage 'more haste, less speed' holds true. Infrequent side-effects, by definition, appear in large scale use.
    As someone with several nearest and dearest, including obviously myself, in risk groups I sincerely hope several of these vaccines work but I wouldn't 'bet the farm' on the first one, or even the first of a different type. Or the seconds, either.
    30,000 participants.

    https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04470427
    Thanks. Looks well-designed, doesn't it.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:
    'Kin hell, I am shocked, SHOCKED, that Contrarian has managed to link to a dubious website run by a vile homophobe, that has a history of publishing bullshit.

    SHOCKED!
    Guess how far I had to scroll down before getting to an article involving George Soros?
    But I thought they already had Bobulinski singing like a canary? Why do they need this guy after The Bobster's devastating testimony already destroyed Biden?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Alistair said:
    'Kin hell, I am shocked, SHOCKED, that Contrarian has managed to link to a dubious website run by a vile homophobe, that has a history of publishing bullshit.

    SHOCKED!
    A link I called 'ludicrous nonsense'

    But its good to know I live rent free in your head.
  • Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?
  • Alistair said:
    'Kin hell, I am shocked, SHOCKED, that Contrarian has managed to link to a dubious website run by a vile homophobe, that has a history of publishing bullshit.

    SHOCKED!
    A link I called 'ludicrous nonsense'

    But its good to know I live rent free in your head.
    Heh, keep thinking that.

    But we really need to sort out your crap non use of apostrophes.

    You voted Leave right?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.

    Or its even more effective... and thus taking longer to reach the necessary number!
    I don't think it will be too long now.
    Nah it's because they have a smaller control group so less chance of events, especially if it is 90%+ effective like the other two. That to me seems like an error with a standard sample size, if they wanted a one third control group then they should have doubled the size of the trial so that in raw numbers terms there are enough unvaccinated people in the sample to catch it.
    Wasn't the Moderna vaccine teated on a fairly small group?

    I have to say that in 60 years in or close to pharmacy I've seen a lot of new drugs and medicines come and go. Generally speaking the old adage 'more haste, less speed' holds true. Infrequent side-effects, by definition, appear in large scale use.
    As someone with several nearest and dearest, including obviously myself, in risk groups I sincerely hope several of these vaccines work but I wouldn't 'bet the farm' on the first one, or even the first of a different type. Or the seconds, either.
    30k trial size, 50% control. It's large enough.
    Foxy and other correct me if I'm wrong...

    The acceleration of the vaccines by the various industrialised world pharma companies/organisations have all (as far as I am aware) not involved dropping any actual testing steps.

    What they have done is put vaccines into production before the trials are complete, parallelised the paperwork etc. Basically everything that could be done *without* skipping the clinical trials.
  • This is going to be so awesome, Apple will make such an awesome success of this, and not the disaster that Samsung made.

    A Chinese report claims that Apple has had Foxconn and other suppliers make samples of folding iPhones, and that the devices could be launched as early as 2022.

    Both Foxconn and Nippon Nippon have been asked to send samples so that Apple can see how they stand up to more than 100,000 fold operations …


    https://9to5mac.com/2020/11/16/folding-iphones-enter-testing-possible-2022-release-claims-chinese-report/
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,459

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Really good question. We seem to have enough capacity at the moment, with the current testing level. I think we need much more of the rapid testing to get things back to more normal faster than the vaccines will allow. I suspect just vaccines alone won't get crowds back into sport much before May - we clearly need much better suppression of spread, and the current system ain't doing it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Boris Johnson does not look well.

    I know it has been said before but it's really noticeable today.

    He says he's as fit as a butcher's dog.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:
    'Kin hell, I am shocked, SHOCKED, that Contrarian has managed to link to a dubious website run by a vile homophobe, that has a history of publishing bullshit.

    SHOCKED!
    Guess how far I had to scroll down before getting to an article involving George Soros?
    But I thought they already had Bobulinski singing like a canary? Why do they need this guy after The Bobster's devastating testimony already destroyed Biden?
    Of course if we believe everything some media outlets claim, Trump's presidency wouldn't have lasted a month. He would have been banged to rights years ago.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    QTWTAIN?

    Let's just get on with vaccinating everyone already. Then these ludicrous non-test tests that still require negative cases to isolate for a bloody fortnight will become a thing of the past.

    Ditto absurd school rules that require children to isolate only if they have symptoms, despite the fact that most children who contract CV-19 do so without any symptoms whatsoever.

    We'll look back on covid policy and see in the rearview mirror an orgy of keeping up appearances, and 'setting a good example' in place of science and reason.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,671
    edited November 2020

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    I suspect for the next decade or so the governments will keep things like this active lest Covid-19 mutates.

    You can guarantee that the manifestos at the next general election will promise awesome pandemic preparedness.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,699
    edited November 2020
    Scott_xP said:

    Quincel said:

    You know what else is bullshit about it: Serena Williams has never won Overseas Personality of the Year. She's perhaps the greatest tennis player of all time, she's certainly the greatest female player of her generation by a country mile. Federer (a similar great on the men's tour) has won it 4 times!

    Guys don't like women's sports...
    Four female players have won it before:

    Hingis
    Graf
    Navratilova
    Evert

    Compared with:

    Nadal
    Djokovic
    Federer
    Ivanisevic
    Agassi
    Becker
    Connors
    Borg
    Ashe
    Laver
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Will you be saying that if they turn out not to work, or have some super serious side-effect? :p
  • alednamalednam Posts: 186
    You (Mike Smithson) say "there’d be no stopping the Democrats if the [two Georgia] Senate seats are lost. But so long as Trump remains unwilling to concede, Republicans are unwilling to explain exactly why."
    But Trump supporting Republicans don't suppose that truths stand in need to explanation, their unwillingess to allow that there is no evidence of voter fraud being a case in point. You can willingly say whatever might help your cause once you've blown truth out of the window.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Oh poor Trumpie. The vaccines arrived a few weeks late . Regardless it’s deeply troubling that so many voted for him , perhaps a mass sterilization programme is needed to stop the Trump Cult from further polluting the US gene pool.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934
    nico679 said:

    Oh poor Trumpie. The vaccines arrived a few weeks late . Regardless it’s deeply troubling that so many voted for him , perhaps a mass sterilization programme is needed to stop the Trump Cult from further polluting the US gene pool.

    Quite a disgusting comment.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Alistair said:
    'Kin hell, I am shocked, SHOCKED, that Contrarian has managed to link to a dubious website run by a vile homophobe, that has a history of publishing bullshit.

    SHOCKED!
    A link I called 'ludicrous nonsense'

    But its good to know I live rent free in your head.
    Heh, keep thinking that.

    But we really need to sort out your crap non use of apostrophes.

    You voted Leave right?
    What can I say, I'm a busy person.

    And I reserve all my best grammar for the people who pay me.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:
    'Kin hell, I am shocked, SHOCKED, that Contrarian has managed to link to a dubious website run by a vile homophobe, that has a history of publishing bullshit.

    SHOCKED!
    Guess how far I had to scroll down before getting to an article involving George Soros?
    But I thought they already had Bobulinski singing like a canary? Why do they need this guy after The Bobster's devastating testimony already destroyed Biden?
    Of course if we believe everything some media outlets claim, Trump's presidency wouldn't have lasted a month. He would have been banged to rights years ago.
    Just let it out, let it all out.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,459

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.

    Or its even more effective... and thus taking longer to reach the necessary number!
    I don't think it will be too long now.
    Nah it's because they have a smaller control group so less chance of events, especially if it is 90%+ effective like the other two. That to me seems like an error with a standard sample size, if they wanted a one third control group then they should have doubled the size of the trial so that in raw numbers terms there are enough unvaccinated people in the sample to catch it.
    Wasn't the Moderna vaccine teated on a fairly small group?

    I have to say that in 60 years in or close to pharmacy I've seen a lot of new drugs and medicines come and go. Generally speaking the old adage 'more haste, less speed' holds true. Infrequent side-effects, by definition, appear in large scale use.
    As someone with several nearest and dearest, including obviously myself, in risk groups I sincerely hope several of these vaccines work but I wouldn't 'bet the farm' on the first one, or even the first of a different type. Or the seconds, either.
    30k trial size, 50% control. It's large enough.
    Foxy and other correct me if I'm wrong...

    The acceleration of the vaccines by the various industrialised world pharma companies/organisations have all (as far as I am aware) not involved dropping any actual testing steps.

    What they have done is put vaccines into production before the trials are complete, parallelised the paperwork etc. Basically everything that could be done *without* skipping the clinical trials.
    Yes - they have hit the production process based on it working and not hitting snags. Its a gamble, but in a time of need, its the right choice. Thousands of lives could have been lost if they waited for all the data to come in and only then thought - right, lets scale up now...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:
    'Kin hell, I am shocked, SHOCKED, that Contrarian has managed to link to a dubious website run by a vile homophobe, that has a history of publishing bullshit.

    SHOCKED!
    Guess how far I had to scroll down before getting to an article involving George Soros?
    But I thought they already had Bobulinski singing like a canary? Why do they need this guy after The Bobster's devastating testimony already destroyed Biden?
    It's like a TV series the depends on a long running villain. He always gets away, just at the last second.

    Think the series Justified. A hillbilly criminal takes on the Chicago Mob, a Mexican drug cartel, the US Marshals Service, the FBI, the ATF and the State police. And lasts 6 series......
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    RobD said:

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Will you be saying that if they turn out not to work, or have some super serious side-effect? :p
    The tests don't work, do they? You get a test, it's negative, you still have to isolate for a fortnight. Why?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934

    RobD said:

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Will you be saying that if they turn out not to work, or have some super serious side-effect? :p
    The tests don't work, do they? You get a test, it's negative, you still have to isolate for a fortnight. Why?
    That's a policy decision. If you accept the risk of false negatives you could simply change the policy.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,463
    edited November 2020

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Man, AZ definitely got their PIII strategy wrong, they started earlier than Moderna and Pfizer and we're still waiting for results.

    Or its even more effective... and thus taking longer to reach the necessary number!
    I don't think it will be too long now.
    Nah it's because they have a smaller control group so less chance of events, especially if it is 90%+ effective like the other two. That to me seems like an error with a standard sample size, if they wanted a one third control group then they should have doubled the size of the trial so that in raw numbers terms there are enough unvaccinated people in the sample to catch it.
    Wasn't the Moderna vaccine teated on a fairly small group?

    I have to say that in 60 years in or close to pharmacy I've seen a lot of new drugs and medicines come and go. Generally speaking the old adage 'more haste, less speed' holds true. Infrequent side-effects, by definition, appear in large scale use.
    As someone with several nearest and dearest, including obviously myself, in risk groups I sincerely hope several of these vaccines work but I wouldn't 'bet the farm' on the first one, or even the first of a different type. Or the seconds, either.
    30k trial size, 50% control. It's large enough.
    Foxy and other correct me if I'm wrong...

    The acceleration of the vaccines by the various industrialised world pharma companies/organisations have all (as far as I am aware) not involved dropping any actual testing steps.

    What they have done is put vaccines into production before the trials are complete, parallelised the paperwork etc. Basically everything that could be done *without* skipping the clinical trials.
    That's what it looks like. OK to do if it works. But to vary my earlier phrase 'you can have it quick or you can have it right' and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see someone come a cropper. Just hope it's not an almighty one.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited November 2020
    This thread has been shut down like the threat of COVID....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364

    This morning I spotted another willy-waving topic on PB. So we now have:

    "I don't watch TV"
    "I don't use cash"
    "I don't have a land line"

    I suspect a big cluster in the centre of the Venn Diagram.

    I haven't owned a TV since the digital switchover. I always thought it was a rather niche, eccentric position so never mentioned it. But now I know it's a sign of virility, seriousness and intellectual independence I won't hesitate to bring it up at every opportunity.
    I know a number of people who ditched TV and moved to watching specific things on DVD/streaming services.

    Often as part of having children - they wanted move to the idea of watching things for a specific purpose, rather than waste time on channel surfing.

    While I haven't done the same, I don't channel surf anymore, and I understand their point.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Two new "mega labs" will open in early 2021 to try to double the UK's daily coronavirus testing capacity, the government has said. The sites - at Leamington Spa in the Midlands and another at an unconfirmed site in Scotland - will increase testing capacity by 600,000.

    That's great, but will we need a capacity of a million tests a day in a few months time?

    Will you be saying that if they turn out not to work, or have some super serious side-effect? :p
    The tests don't work, do they? You get a test, it's negative, you still have to isolate for a fortnight. Why?
    That's a policy decision. If you accept the risk of false negatives you could simply change the policy.
    It's an absurd policy. Do another bloody test if you are worried about falsies.
  • The only TV I watch regularly is the F1. Otherwise, I catch the odd snippet of news and that's it.

    Via Youtube, I watch plenty about games, history, fantasy etc. There's very little on TV that interests me and sometimes even stuff that should (history, say) can be a bit too basic and boring to watch.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,599
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The vaccine taskforce is supposedly in talks about licencing it for manufacturing here which would be a different sort of deal than just purchasing.
    Even better. Presumably every available manufacturing facility in the country will be pushed onto Covid vaccines ASAP, as well as probably a few more facilities constructed.?
    cGMP manufacturing is a bit more complicated that that!

    That’s why the U.K. government bought the Braintree site earlier this year.
    That’s useful info, thanks. I’m quite fascinated by the logistics of manufacturing and distribution of the vaccines, and that the whole world is going to be racing to immunise everyone as quickly as possible.
  • Alistair said:
    'Kin hell, I am shocked, SHOCKED, that Contrarian has managed to link to a dubious website run by a vile homophobe, that has a history of publishing bullshit.

    SHOCKED!
    A link I called 'ludicrous nonsense'

    But its good to know I live rent free in your head.
    Heh, keep thinking that.

    But we really need to sort out your crap non use of apostrophes.

    You voted Leave right?
    What can I say, I'm a busy person.

    And I reserve all my best grammar for the people who pay me.

    Probably on universal credit
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    What happens if Oxford come along in 2-3 weeks and say ours is only 60-70% effective?

    Be very tricky decision for the government.

    Isn't the storage distribution supposed to be a lot easier for the Oxford vaccine?
    Yes, just need a fridge..But can you imagine the reaction if the government says ok oldies get Pfizer, the rest of you plebs get a 60% effective one.
    Would be fair enough. Covid-19 is virtually harmless to the fit and healthy under 50s.
    My 46-year-old brother-in-law has been ill for a month and a half now. Cough that just will not go away, fatigue that takes him out every afternoon, and the rest of the Long Covid experience.

    Which, as we now know, affects far too many people (median age of the recent study was 44; 95% of them between 22-66). Organ damage is not uncommon; multiple organ damage is not uncommon, and the majority of people suffering were fully healthy before hand.

    By "virtually harmless" do you mean this? Is it just that they haven't actually died that makes it "virtually harmless"?

    Could you answer a puzzle that's confounded me: why do so many apparently intelligent people reach so desperately for some way to dismiss the entire thing as a problem? My assumption was that it was either sublimated fear (the "deny it and it goes away" philosophy) or a kind of desperation for normality ("If we say it often enough, everything will go back to normal"), but I'd love to hear the rationale from someone who's on the inside of this.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,356
    Cicero said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Covid was circulating in Italy in September 2019, new study shows - meaning virus spread from China to Europe months earlier than previously thought"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8951241/Coronavirus-emerged-Italy-earlier-thought-Italian-study-shows.html

    That’s rather worrying, given that we first started talking about this weird virus in China early in January. It was out there for six months before we realised.
    When my wife was in hospital January and they had no clue what kind of pneumonia she had, the consultant said they had had a lot of odd pneumonia's recently.
    where was that Malc? Certainly a bit of a spate in Aberdeen last winter.
    @cicero In Ayrshire Cicero.
This discussion has been closed.